LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 07/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 9:2-10. After six days Jesus took Peter, James, and John and led them up a high mountain apart by themselves. And he was transfigured before them, and his clothes became dazzling white, such as no fuller on earth could bleach them. Then Elijah appeared to them along with Moses, and they were conversing with Jesus. Then Peter said to Jesus in reply, "Rabbi, it is good that we are here! Let us make three tents: one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah." He hardly knew what to say, they were so terrified. Then a cloud came, casting a shadow over them; then from the cloud came a voice, "This is my beloved Son. Listen to him." Suddenly, looking around, they no longer saw anyone but Jesus alone with them. As they were coming down from the mountain, he charged them not to relate what they had seen to anyone, except when the Son of Man had risen from the dead. So they kept the matter to themselves, questioning what rising from the dead meant.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Syria celebrates too soon on sanctions. By: Tony Badran, NOW Lebanon 06/08/09
Now Lebanon: Lebanese press round-up: August 6, 2009
Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround. By Michael Young 06/08/09
Shiites want a quiet life, and that's bad news for Hizbollah-By: Michael Young 06/08/09
Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon- The Daily Star 06/08/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 06/09
Britain Concerned About Hizbullah Efforts to Rearm -Naharnet
Lieberman: Israel Committed to Ghajar Sovereignty -Naharnet
U.S. Concerned About Hizbullah Activity, Hints it Isn't Seeking UNIFIL Mandate Change -Naharnet
Al-Anbaa: US Defense Department monitors Israeli drills to be carried out in South. Now Lebanon
Jumblat Confirms Allegiance to Hariri, Calls for New March 14 'Outlook' -Naharnet
Barak Warns against Introducing New Weapon Systems to Lebanon -Naharnet
Jisr: Jumblat Neither in Nor Out of March 14 -Naharnet
Trial of Syrian Officer Accused of Attempting to Plant Bomb on Eve of Hariri's Murder Anniversary Postponed -Naharnet
Hariri Indirectly to Jumblat: You Cannot Remain an Ally when You Are Independent -Naharnet
Terro: We Didn't Leave March 14 to Join Opposition -Naharnet
Police Arrest Notary and 3-Member Gang that Forges Official Documents -Naharnet
Khoja Conveyed Saudi Support for Lebanon -Naharnet
Hariri's Return Likely before Week's End -Naharnet
Aoun's Demands in the New Cabinet -Naharnet
Goksel Skeptical about Amount of Hizbullah Arms The Times Reported -Naharnet
Jumblat From Baabda: Earlier Statements Were Misunderstood, I Won't Abandon Hariri and March 14 Principles -Naharnet
Aoun: Jumblat Did Not Join Opposition but Is 'More than Welcome' -Naharnet
March 14 Warns against March 8 'Maneuvers' to Delay Government Formation -Naharnet
Wahhab: Damascus Road Open for Jumblat -Naharnet
U.S. wants Israel to freeze settlement for year: report-Reuters
Hezbollah reportedly stockpiling 40000 rockets near northern border-Ha'aretz
Ghajar residents don't want to be part of Lebanon-Jerusalem Post
Their last days-Ynetnews
Rebuilding of Lebanon's oldest synagogue begins-The Associated Press
Israel foreign minister visits divided village-AFP
Lieberman: Ghajar belongs to Israel-Ynetnews
Australia not ready to ban radical group: Attorney-General-Xinhua
Israel's Lieberman vows to resolve future of Ghajar-Daily Star
Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate-Daily Star
Hariri expected to continue cabinet efforts abroad-Daily Star
Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty-Daily Star
UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour-Daily Star
Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation-Daily Star
Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion-By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Peace wishes Oldest journalist celebrates joint birthday with Obama-Daily Star
Baroud report calls for reforms-Daily Star
Fouad Boutros Street to solve Achrafieh traffic crisis-Daily Star
June polls widened country’s sectarian gap – LCP-Daily Star
Sidon excavations complete historic legacy-Daily Star

UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis arrived in Lebanon Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour, the National News Agency reported. Lewis is scheduled to meet President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, interim Premier Fouad Siniora and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh. He is also expected to hold talks with Premier-designate Saad Hariri once the latter returns from a private trip. A statement by the British Embassy in Lebanon said: “Upon his arrival, Minister Lewis visited southern Lebanon and met with local officials in Hasbayya. He then visited UNIFIL’s base in Marjayoun.” Lewis trip is part of Britain’s “continuous support for the political and democratic process and for the formation of a government of national unity,” the statement said. The British government “urges the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 and stresses the significant role that Lebanon can play in the Middle East peace process,” it added. – The Daily Star

Al-Anbaa: US Defense Department monitors Israeli drills to be carried out in South
August 6, 2009
-NOW Staff
Al-Anbaa newspaper reported on Thursday that the US Department of Defense was monitoring drills held by the Israeli Special Forces to better prepare them to carry out a series of military operations in South Lebanon that aim at destroying Hezbollah centers south of the Litani River that launch and control short- and medium-range missiles.
The paper quoted Kevin Bart, a researcher at the US Military and Security Academy, as saying that the Israeli Special Forces have held training exercises to be more ready to destroy the control centers and tunnels that Hezbollah militants use in South Lebanon.
“The forces are focusing their drills on the area south of the Litani River to target Hezbollah’s line of defense there,” Bart said.








Syria celebrates too soon on sanctions
Tony Badran, NOW Contributor ,
August 6, 2009
The Obama administration has announced it is easing the processing of certain export licenses to Syria, within the framework of sanctions in effect since the previous administration. Syrian spokesmen were quick to hail this as the crack that would open the floodgates and terminate the sanctions regime altogether. However, subsequent moves by the administration and a strong reaction from Congress suggested, once again, that Syrian triumphalism was badly misplaced.
Although the administration’s move was described in the media as “lifting some sanctions” on Syria, Washington was operating within the legal parameters of the existing sanctions, which allow the issuing of export licenses on certain items, such as spare parts for airplanes to ensure aviation safety. However, this did not include giving Syria the right to purchase or lease new aircraft, which the Syrian Air fleet badly needs.
And yet the Syrians couldn’t contain themselves. Imad Shoueibi, who often reflects the views of the Syrian regime, declared (Arabic) that American sanctions on Syria were all but over, and that President Barack Obama had emptied them of their substance. The Syrian ambassador to Washington, Imad Mustapha, echoed Shoueibi when he told UPI that the Syrians were banking on Obama’s using his administrative authority to override Congress and suspend key articles in the sanctions law.

Mustapha’s optimism may have been understandable, as he needs to prove his usefulness to President Bashar al-Assad in light of the Obama administration’s cautious pace with Damascus. However, the Syrians were in for yet another disappointment when shortly thereafter, Obama renewed an executive order sanctioning Assad’s cousin, Hafez Makhlouf, and another major regime figure, Muhammad Nassif Khayrbek. The executive order addressed Syrian behavior in Lebanon, and the renewal letter signaled that the United States was still waiting for much more from Syria on that front, including ending arms smuggling to Hezbollah, border demarcation and control, and the full implementation of Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701, all things Syria doesn’t want to hear about.

The Syrians are desperately trying to make Iraq the central – indeed the only – avenue for cooperation with American demands. In other words, in return for a belated tightening of control over the Syrian-Iraqi border, Syria now wants Washington to make concessions to improve the bilateral relationship. This is typical of the Syrian bait-and-switch tactic: Sell expired goods in return for significant dispensations from the other side, while Damascus retains its blackmailing capability down the road.

However, Syria is weak and has limited regional assets. This was articulated by an American academic, Joshua Landis, who often echoes Syrian thinking as well, when he explained that “Syria will have to hand over much of its foreign policy bag of tricks simply to purchase normal relations with the West.” The impediment to real change in the Syrian regime’s behavior in a manner that would satisfy American decision-makers is structural and systemic. Syria cannot abandon its support for violence and subversion, or its alliance with Iran, because those are the only tools allowing it to bolster its relevance above its political weight.

This raises serious questions about any meaningful horizon for the Obama administration’s engagement policy. The US Congress might agree. Several congressional representatives, particularly the Democrats among them, reacted negatively to reports that the administration intended to ease the processing of export licenses to Syria – not even their actual lifting. The State Department had to quickly explain that nothing had changed in the sanctions law. In other words, the mere mention of the issue caused an uproar. Many in Washington are waiting for tangible steps from Assad, which have not been, and likely will not be, forthcoming. Ironically, the Syrians’ premature celebration may have made it less likely that the US will soon give them what they want.

In the past the Syrians ridiculed the sanctions as toothless, merely “gumming on the perimeters” of Syria’s economy, as Landis put it. Now they are crying for them to be lifted, signaling that the sanctions are effective after all. The Assad regime is now waiting to see how the administration will handle the executive order targeting Rami Makhlouf, another of Bashar al-Assad’s cousins, due for renewal in February. At this time, nothing suggests it won’t be renewed.
The Obama administration would be well advised to continue leveraging sanctions to obtain concrete, meaningful and irreversible Syrian steps that are in line with American interests. Meanwhile, Assad will continue to do his best to fool the US into selling the house for little or nothing. The administration would do well to continue giving the Syrians a taste of their own medicine. After all, it is Syria that needs the US, not the other way around, notwithstanding Syrian efforts to suggest the contrary.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow with the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.


Now Lebanon:: Lebanese press round-up: August 6, 2009
August 6, 2009
Press round-up for Thursday, August 6th from the morning edition of Lebanon’s An-Nahar, Al-Akhbar, As-Safir, and Ad-Diyar newspapers.
Opening Titles
Khoja met with Sleiman and Siniora before his departure; Berri does not rule out [the formation of] the government by the middle of next week.
Jumblatt’s clarification puts the government formation crisis back in intensive care.
Hariri is still on his “evaluation leave;” no constitutional deadlines for the duration of the mission of the prime minister-designate.
Local News
Sources close to PM-designate Saad Hariri told An-Nahar last night that no progress has been achieved and that the prime minister-designate is on vacation in order to evaluate the overall political situation and come up with the appropriate solution.
MP Walid Jumblatt clarified his position, saying after his meeting with President Sleiman, “I did not and will not abandon the prime minister-designate.” Jumblatt indicated that his position does not mean he withdrew from the March 14 coalition, “rather, it aims to find new slogans.”
Saudi Information and Culture Minister Abdel Aziz Khoja left Beirut yesterday afternoon for Morocco, where the Saudi king is on vacation. An-Nahar has learned that Khoja met with President Sleiman in a behind-the-scenes visit to the Baabda Presidential Palace and also met with outgoing PM Fouad Siniora yesterday.
A majority source told An-Nahar that that the content of Jumblatt’s clarification yesterday was expected and is mainly aimed at preventing him [from] being accused of hindering the formation of the government.
According to sources, ongoing contacts are being made between the General Secretariat of the March 14 Coalition and Democratic Gathering representatives in order to bring the PSP representative back into the secretariat.
Following the meeting of the March 14 General Secretariat yesterday, its general coordinator, former MP Fares Soueid, said that “Jumblatt is an integral part of the March 14 forces even though his position [on Sunday] came as a shock.”
Speaker Berri was surprised by the reports whereby Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri may recant forming the government or remain in seclusion. Berri predicted Hariri will be back in Beirut before the end of the week and did not rule out the formation of the government by the middle of the coming week.
General Michel Aoun described MP Jumblatt’s position as “a natural event that does not require any comments,” welcoming Jumblatt’s joining the opposition “if he wants to” and saying, “No one is dearer to us than him.” Aoun contended that if Hariri does not return [to Lebanon] within two days’ time, “then he would be [intentionally] remaining in seclusion abroad, which is dangerous.”
Former Minister Wiam Wahhab noticeably said from Syria yesterday that “MP Jumblatt is always welcome in Damascus.”
Opening Titles
Jumblatt reassures Hariri and retains his particularity.
Lieberman visits Ghajar, and the village inhabitants refuse its partition.
The United States wants to review the UNIFIL’s mandate, and Graziano refuses.
Local News
Jumblatt divorced those he referred to as “a bad penny” only a few months earlier, i.e. the March 14 Christians, and kept on his bilateral relations with the prime minister-designate, thus forming an integral part of the quadripartite alliance he had been calling for when he stressed the need to form an Islamic bloc.
Jumblatt generated a shock wave that nearly undermined Hariri’s main project, i.e. the formation of a government, which would solidify his leadership after having won the majority in the parliamentary elections, a majority that is now threatened.
Jumblatt has deprived the pro-government forces of the absolute majority which it had been promised to gain in the national-unity government. Meanwhile, the opposition retains the one-third of seats in this government.
The village of Ghajar has returned to the forefront. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman visited the village, saying that Israel has yet to make up its mind and revealing the existence of several suggestions in this respect.
IDF Northern Command Deputy Chief Alon Friedman warned of an escalation of the tense situation along the border with Lebanon.
The UN Security Council did not mention UNIFIL during the general debate it held yesterday regarding the situation of peacekeeping operations around the world. UNIFIL Commander General Claudio Graziano was also absent from the session.
Ambassador Susan Rice, US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, revealed that she met with UNIFIL’s Italian commander, who told her he is against amending UNIFIL’s mandate.
Opening Titles
The PSP leader reassures the prime minister-designate … and receives a message from Syria: Assad is ready to welcome you.
“The Khoja formula”: Jumblatt’s ministers are to be with Hariri and independent from March 14; Aoun is attached to a “key [portfolio]” if changes are made [to the current distribution of ministerial portfolios] … “or else let everything remain the same for everyone.”
Local News
The emergency mission undertaken by Saudi Information and Culture Minister Abdel Aziz Khoja, who is in charge of the “Lebanese file”, managed to re-strengthen PM-designate Saad Hariri’s mission of forming a national-unity government.
The Saudi position was in keeping with that of the United States as expressed by US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, who advised a group of his Lebanese friends not to express their displeasure with MP Walid Jumblatt.
Sources confirmed to As-Safir that PM-designate Saad Hariri paid a quick visit to Morocco, where he met with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz before returning to his yacht off the coast of Nice in order to celebrate his wife’s birthday.
As-Safir has learned that according to the road map drawn by the Saudi envoy with Jumblatt, the Druze members of the Council of Ministers would vote alongside PM Saad Hariri regardless of the March 14 bloc.
Future Movement sources told As-Safir that Jumblatt’s statement following his meeting with President Michel Sleiman is being calmly appraised, and that the relation between Qoreitem and Clemenceau is being reconsidered.
A key member of the Free Patriotic Movement told As-Safir that PM-designate Saad Hariri told Minister Gebran Bassil that he understood the FPM’s demands. Bassil asserted to Hariri that the Change and Reform Bloc is entitled to being represented by four Maronite ministers.
Bassil proposed the following equation to Hariri: If [ministerial portfolios] are to be swapped, the Change and Reform Bloc wants a key portfolio. If not, then the bloc agrees on abiding by the principle of “letting everything remain the same for everyone.”
Opening Titles
Sleiman and Berri isolate the PSP leader’s upheaval from the formation of the government. Wahhab after meeting with Sharaa: The Druze leader is always welcome in Damascus.
Jumblatt to Ad-Diyar: The March 14 revolutionary movement has served its purpose; I insist on my distinctiveness.
Local News
According to confirmed reports, “Speaker Berri called PM-designate Saad Hariri yesterday and kept all communication lines open with MP Jumblatt in order to ‘bridge the gap’ between the two men.” Informed sources revealed that “the efforts made during the past 48 hours successfully ‘isolated’ Jumblatt’s declarations from the formation of the government.” Informed sources also told Ad-Diyar that Jumblatt is likely to travel to France, where he would meet with PM-designate Saad Hariri and initiate a thorough review of their relation in light of Hariri’s admonishment to the Druze leader for his declarations during the PSP Congress at the Beaurivage Hotel.

Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Wednesday expressed Moscow’s support for Lebanon’s “sovereignty, independence and stability,” as the two countries celebrated 65 years since the establishment of bilateral ties. In a letter to his Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salloukh, Lavrov said Russia was working to “push forward the Middle East peace process according to international and legal foundations, accepted by all sides including, including the Arab peace initiative.” Also in a letter to his Russian counterpart, Salloukh thanked Lavrov for Russia’s “constant support for Lebanon, especially with regards to the liberation of Lebanese land from Israeli occupation.” He expressed hope that Russia will continue to play a supportive role until Lebanon “completes the liberation of the remaining occupied territories in the south.” Salloukh highlighted Lebanon’s “full” commitment to the provisions of UN Resolution 1701 and to the mission of the UNIFIL, while rejecting “any form of amendment to the force’s rules of engagement.” – The Daily Star

Hariri Indirectly to Jumblat: You Cannot Remain an Ally when You Are Independent
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri has reportedly informed Druze leader Walid Jumblat, via a third party, that he cannot remain his ally after announcing he was going independent from the majority March 14 coalition. "Either you are my ally in the government or you are somewhere else … with my foes," Hariri allegedly told Jumblat.
"You cannot remain my ally when you are independent," Hariri added. Meanwhile, a well-informed March 14 source told pan-Arab Sharq al-Awsat that the reason behind Jumblat's clarification of his explosive stance was Hariri's "harsh" reaction as well as the lack of attention from March 14. The source said Hariri had severed "direct contact" with Jumblat since Sunday when the Progressive Socialist Party leader made his stance in which he announced he was terminating his alliance with March 14 forces. Hariri had not been answering Jumblat's calls since then, the source added. Another source, however, said Hariri had requested that Jumblat explains what he really wants. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 10:43

Barak: Israel Will Use All Necessary Force in any Conflict with Lebanon
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Thursday against introducing new weapon systems to Lebanon that could upset the military balance and said the Jewish state will get tough in any conflict with Lebanon. He told Israeli public radio that the Jewish state would consider taking "appropriate measures" in the event of introducing weapon systems to Lebanon, pointing to Hizbullah's continued growth. Barak claimed that Hizbullah has stockpiled 40,000 rockets. "We cannot accept that a neighboring U.N. member state should have in its government representatives of a militia that has more than 40,000 rockets," he said. "If there is a conflict on our northern border, we will use all necessary force," Barak warned. "What happened in the second Lebanon war will not happen again ... at the time a message from the United States indicated we must spare Lebanon's infrastructure," he added. "Hizbullah continues arming itself and we must ensure certain types of weapon should not enter Lebanon," Barak said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 13:24

Britain Concerned About Hizbullah Efforts to Rearm
Naharnet/Visiting British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis expressed concern on Thursday about alleged Hizbullah efforts to rearm, saying this is not in line with U.N. Security Council resolution 1701. His stance came during a meeting with Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh, who in turn said that Lebanon hasn't yet received from the Security Council any proof about arms smuggling to Hizbullah. Salloukh told Lewis that U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon's latest report did not mention arms smuggling to the Shiite group, which is an internal issue being discussed on the national dialogue table. The minister also met with President Michel Suleiman and Speaker Nabih Berri. After his talks with Suleiman at Baabda palace, Lewis expressed his country's readiness to help in Lebanon's reconstruction. "Britain believes that political and economic reforms in Lebanon are very important to guarantee a prosperous future." The British envoy said his country was worried about violations of resolution 1701, stressing "Lebanon should seriously continue to implement it."He added that British officials have continuously urged Israel to end violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Lewis arrived in Beirut Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 14:03

Lieberman: Israel Committed to Ghajar Sovereignty
Naharnet/Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the Jewish state is committed to the sovereignty of the Lebanese border town of Ghajar. "There will be no agreement with Lebanon and Syria. Ghajar is entirely under Israeli sovereignty," Lieberman said after a tour of divided Ghajar on Wednesday. "Our decision regarding Ghajar will be based on security and humanitarian concerns; there are 2,000 residents here. We are discussing our ideas with the U.S. and the U.N., but there is no connection to the Syrians or the Lebanese," Lieberman said. He told Ghajar residents: "You weren't conquered by Israel. You were liberated." Following his tour, Lieberman told Ynet that Ghajar residents "want the village to remain under Israeli sovereignty; that is their preferred option. We will deal with the issue from the humanitarian and security-related aspects. I assume that within a few weeks we will formulate our policy regarding the village and present it to Cabinet. "I've yet to reach a decision. The issue must be studied; we need to look at maps and examine documents that have been drafted over the years," he said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 09:43

U.S. Concerned About Hizbullah Activity, Hints it Isn't Seeking UNIFIL Mandate Change
Naharnet/Washington has reiterated that it was concerned about alleged Hizbullah attempts to rearm but hinted that it was not seeking to change the mandate of U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon."We remain extremely concerned about … the role Hizbullah is playing in Lebanon, including its attempts to rearm in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions," State Department Deputy Spokesman Robert Wood said in response to a question on Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's threat that the Jewish state will find itself extremely free to launch a military operation on Lebanon no matter what the consequences will be. "I haven't seen the comments by the Israeli defense minister," Wood said Wednesday during a press briefing, adding "Hizbullah continues to pose a threat to peace and security in the region." He reiterated that the Obama administration fully supports the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.When asked how he reads or views Barak's threat, Wood reiterated that the Israelis, Washington "and others are very concerned about the type of activity that Hizbullah has been engaged in." Wood also told reporters that he has nothing new to add on the issue of U.S. pressure on Syria to demarcate the border with Lebanon.
Meanwhile, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice told reporters following a Security Council debate on peacekeeping operations that she met with UNIFIL Commander Maj. Gen. Claudio Graziano, who told her that the peacekeeping mission's mandate and troop levels are "appropriate." "The most important thing at this point is reinforcing the political will of both parties to uphold the obligations in 1701," Rice said. When asked if the U.S. was requesting an amendment to UNIFIL's mandate, Rice said: "I didn't say that. I said we are looking at it. I am not prepared to say one way or another. But obviously the recommendations of the force commander and other senior personnel on the ground are very important to us."
"As with all these peacekeeping operations, we will review them," she stressed. Israel had officially asked the Security Council to amend UNIFIL's Rules of Engagement following the explosion of an alleged Hizbullah arms cache in Khirbet Selm last month. The Council is expected to extend the mandate of the peacekeeping force for another year during a session on August 27. It will also hold on August 20 a consultative session on challenges facing UNIFIL. During Wednesday's Security Council meeting, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy underscored that effective partnerships are the cornerstone of the world body's new vision for peacekeeping. The so-called New Horizons process seeks to "reinvigorate the peacekeeping partnership," he told the 15-member body.
Issued last month as a non-paper by the U.N. Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) and the Department of Field Support (DFS), it examines how such a revitalized partnership could boost management and oversight, he said. At the end of the open debate, the Council welcomed the non-paper's assessments and recommendations in a presidential statement, encouraging the U.N. Secretariat to continue with providing planning and support for peacekeeping missions. Furthermore, the statement said the body "recognizes the need to weight the full range of responses when addressing a situation which may endanger international peace and security, and to deploy U.N. peacekeeping missions only as an accompaniment, not as an alternative, to a political strategy." Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 08:29

Jumblat Confirms Allegiance to Hariri, Calls for New March 14 'Outlook'
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat confirmed his allegiance to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, yet he called for a new outlook in the majority March 14 coalition. "To ease interpretation, I have said that the March 14 alliance cannot carry on this way," Jumblat said in interviews with several newspapers published Thursday.
"This does not mean quitting (March 14), but rather finding a new outlook," he clarified. "I did not abandon the Premier-designate (Hariri) and I will not dump him in honor of Rafik Hariri and my friendship to Saad Hariri and his enormous efforts with President Michel Suleiman to achieve a consensus government," Jumblat stressed.
Pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat quoted March 14 circles as saying that Jumblat's clarification was "adequate." They believed Jumblat's call for a new March 14 outlook is "subject to discussion."
He reiterated his keenness to maintain his "privacy and distinction." "The Druze mountains and the PSP have some kind of privacy," Jumblat explained. "My allies should respect my privacy."
Jumblat denied he was obstructing formation of a Cabinet lineup, stressing the need to deal with the repercussions of the May 7 events. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 08:21

Jisr: Jumblat Neither in Nor Out of March 14
Naharnet/Mustaqbal Movement MP Samir Jisr said Thursday that Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat was "neither in nor out" of the majority March 14 coalition.
"If you examine what he (Jumblat) said on Sunday, you will fully know that he did not say he was walking out of March 14," Jisr said in an interview with the Voice of Lebanon radio station. "Jumblat himself says he is halfway in; and that practically he is neither in nor out of March 14 forces," Jisr said. He confirmed that there is convergence among March 14 forces on discussing this issue with the Druze leader. "We didn't severe contacts with Jumblat. A meeting among leaders of March 14 will be held and we will be listening attentively to Walid Bek," he said. Jisr did not say when the meeting would take place. On Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Jisr stressed that Hariri "won't back down on his mission to form a Cabinet."
"He (Hariri) didn't seclude himself and he will return to Lebanon before week's end," he said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:33

Trial of Syrian Officer Accused of Attempting to Plant Bomb on Eve of Hariri's Murder Anniversary Postponed
Naharnet/The military court has postponed the trial of Syrian army Col. Firas Ghannam and Munir Hilal, a Tunisian. Both men are accused of attempting to plant explosives in Martyr's Square on the eve of the first anniversary of the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri. The postponement of the hearing session -- which was devoted to listening to the testimony of one of the witnesses and coming out with a ruling -- was made due to the absence of Hilal's attorney. The Syrian officer objected, given that he had been detained for more than three and a half years. Ghannam had revealed during preliminary interrogation that Syrian army intelligence officer Col. George Salloum had asked him to plant the explosives in Martyr's Square on the eve of the first anniversary of the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri Feb. 14, 2006. Ghannam said he did not plan to carry out the mission that was assigned to him, adding that he pretended to accept the task in order to be able to leave Syrian territory. He said he had planned to travel to Iraq for "jihad", or holy war, via Lebanon. Hilal, in turn, denied he had carried out or attempted to carry out any terrorist operation. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:24

Terro: We Didn't Leave March 14 to Join Opposition
Naharnet/MP Alaeddine Terro said Thursday that the Progressive Socialist Party did not withdraw from the majority coalition to join opposition ranks and stressed the party holds onto the international tribunal and its alliance with Premier-designate Saad Hariri. "We the Progressive Socialist Party and the Democratic Gathering didn't withdraw from the March 14 forces to join the March 8 alliance … Furthermore, we didn't enter into dialogue with the opposition over the country's problems in order to enter into a dispute with our allies and friends in the Mustaqbal movement and other parties," Terro said during a sports festival. He stressed that the PSP will not give up support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the prosecution of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's suspected assassins. Terro also said that the PSP will continue to support consolidation of national unity and dialogue away from sectarian tensions. On the 2005 Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the MP said: "Occupation will not return and diplomatic relations (with Damascus) are a Lebanese demand since independence.""What we want is preventing division and formation of independent groupings that back the president and the prime minister," Terro said, adding "We will not give up on our alliance with the majority premier."
Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:14

Police Arrest Notary and 3-Member Gang that Forges Official Documents
Naharnet/Security forces arrested 3 people in Nabatiyeh for forming a gang that forges official documents, the National News Agency reported Thursday. NNA said police arrested Khalil Gh., Mohammed Gh., and Nael M., who are also wanted on several arrest warrants, during raids on their homes. Security forces seized hundreds of forged IDs and dozens of contracts issued by a notary in Nabatiyeh. The notary, who was also arrested for questioning, was either facilitating the network's work or he may have fallen a victim of the three men's forgery, according to NNA. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 11:30

Aoun: Jumblat Did Not Join Opposition but Is 'More than Welcome'
Naharnet/MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that MP Walid Jumblat had not joined the opposition but will be "welcomed" if he decided to do so.
Speaking to reporters, Aoun also warned that Premier-designate Saad Hariri's trip abroad will be considered a form of "seclusion" if he delays his return. "A political agreement with Jumblat, when reached, will not only benefit the Druze leader, but will benefit us and the whole society," Aoun said after presiding a meeting of his parliamentary bloc."Jumblat has not joined the opposition, but he will be more than welcome if he does," he added. He said any agreement with Jumblat will be "announced when it happens," adding that the "circumstances" for a meeting between them had not "ripened yet."Aoun said he "can deal with anyone who joins his political line on an equal footing." Aoun considered that the coalition of March 14 ended on the day of March 14 saying it did not have a political platform. "The only thing its members had in common was foreign pressure and money," he said, adding that Jumblat's stances had "negative repercussions" on the Christians team in March 14. "We did not interfere in the affairs of March 14 forces when they were in agreement and we will not interfere now that they are not," Aoun stressed. On Hariri's decision to leave the country on a private trip, Aoun said: "The premier-designate might have traveled for social considerations. "But if his visit extends beyond two or three days, it will then be considered a form of seclusion abroad," he cautioned. He said negotiations on the cabinet shape-up "stopped at the distribution of shares, which have yet to be determined.""The political event (Jumblat's announcement and Hariri's travel) took place before we received an answer to our requests concerning the portfolios," he added. "We are now awaiting Hariri's return to resume talks," the Free Patriotic Movement leader said, repeating his suggestion for a government of "proportional representation."
On another note, Aoun insisted he was not in "severe disagreement" with any of the Christian political teams. "The Change and Reform bloc discussed in the meeting the Maronite League's efforts to reconcile the Christians," he said.
"Any dispute we have with other forces is merely political which is natural in political life," he added. He also denied reports of contacts with Saudi Arabia and said he believed Tuesday's visit to Beirut by Saudi Information Minister Abdul Aziz Khoja will not "affect the new developments."Addressing the Israeli threats, Aoun said: "There is nothing happening on the border that calls for such threats. Israel has problems on the domestic front.""It can either relieve the internal crisis or can move to cause any incident on the border to serve an ulterior motive," he said. Beirut, 05 Aug 09, 18:54

March 14 Warns against March 8 'Maneuvers' to Delay Government Formation
Naharnet/March 14 forces warned Wednesday in statement against political "maneuverings" by March 8 that aim to hamper the formation of a government. "Despite an agreement over the new government's general political structure and directions, mystery is still shrouding the next procedural step," the general secretariat said after its regular meeting. The statement said the stalemate has caused "confusion and anxiety among the people, especially in light of constant Israeli threats that create more urgency for a stable state." "March 14 forces - which is committed to a government of political coalition despite having parliamentary majority - warns of the maneuvers and role playing that the March 8 teams continues to resort to in order to hamper the government's formation," it said. The statement called on March 8 to "match its words with actions." March 14 also renewed commitment to "its principles based on the Bristol meeting." "The Cedar Revolution was based on four main pillars: Islamic-Christian solidarity; Lebanon the homeland comes first; truth and justice for a secure future and solidarity with the Arab world in its attempt to advance its peace initiative," it said. The statement concluded: "Lebanon … is asked to play the required role to develop ties with the Arab world and push forward the peace process. This makes it immune to the possibility of turning into a consolation prize for anyone." Beirut, 05 Aug 09, 16:50

Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation
By Maroun Khoury /Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, August 06, 2009
DIMAN: Maronite bishops voiced regret Wednesday over the delay in the formation of the government almost two months following the June 7 parliamentary polls. In a statement issued following the monthly meeting of the Council of Maronite Bishops in the summer seat of the patriarchate in the northern village of Diman, the bishops urged for a swift formation of the Cabinet. “Lebanon is in dire need of a government that can assume its responsibilities toward the citizens and that can manage the situation in the country,” the council said.
The Council of Maronite Bishops convenes the first Wednesday of every month to discuss recent political developments, in addition to matters related to the Church. The meetings are headed by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir. The August statement said that Lebanon has grown “weary of interference in its affairs.”
The bishops called on the Lebanese to “make a common decision to push Lebanon forward while preserving the friendly ties and cooperation that brings the country closer to its neighbors and friends.” The council praised “efforts aimed at achieving reconciliations in the Lebanese house in general and that of the Maronites in particular.”
Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh is expected to visit the patriarch before August 15 at the prelate’s summer headquarters in the northern village of Diman, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported earlier. “The visit, expected before August 15, aims to firmly establish the climate of rapprochement and reconciliation with the Maronite sect’s spiritual guide,” sources close to the Marada Movement told the agency. The expected talks follow a period of “strained relations” between Franjieh and Sfeir. The two leaders will try to “lay the foundations of a new phase of respect and commitment to the Maronite Church’s principles,” the sources said, CNA reported. Last week, Sfeir said his doors were open to Franjieh, and voiced his support for Christian reconciliation. “The Maronite Patriarchate’s doors are open to all the Lebanese, especially Maro?nites, including Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh,” Sfeir said. “The patriarchate will support any step to unite the Lebanese,” he added. The Sfeir-Franjieh meeting is part of efforts to promote inter-Christian reconciliation. Franjieh had met in late July with Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel. The efforts led by the Maronite League also aim to reconcile Franjieh with the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.

Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate
Hariri welcome here – Wahhab from Syria
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt stressed Wednesday that his alliance with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri still stands. “I did not and would not abandon Saad Hariri in memory of his father Rafik Hariri and because of the friendship that ties me to Saad Hariri,” Jumblatt told reporters following talks with President Michel Sleiman.
“My message to Sheikh Saad today is that we will stand by him in the government formation process,” he added.
Jumblatt said the March 14 alliance “cannot continue to exist with the same slogans.” But he stressed that he had not left the coalition and called on it to innovate new slogans.
On Sunday Jumblatt said that his alliance with the March 14 group was “driven by necessity and must not continue.”
Head of the March 14 Forces General Secretariat Fares Soueid said Jumblatt’s Sunday speech was “a shock to the March 14 Forces.”
“However,” he added, “We still agree with MP Jumblatt on the fundamentals and will consider his comments as temporary political stances.”
Addressing the March 14 For?ces, Jumblatt said: “I tell my comrades in the March 14 For?ces that we have achieved a lot but that it’s time for a new outlook.” He also voiced hope that his allies would respect the “particularity” of the Druze community and the PSP.
Jumblatt said his meeting with Sleiman aimed to clarify “misunderstandings that surrounded” his Sunday remarks.
He also highlighted that he still endorsed the formation of a national-unity cabinet by Hariri.
“My statement should not be interpreted as an obstruction to the government’s formation; I did not obstruct [the formation process],” Jumblatt said.
The PSP leader stressed that his recent stances should be “considered within the framework of dealing with the repercussions of the May 7 events.”
The May 7, 2008, events broke out between pro-government and opposition gunmen following the Cabinet’s decision to dismantle Hizbullah’s tele?communication network.
Jumblatt said the March 14 Forces’ fight for an independent Lebanon had been successfully achieved, “however the country’s sovereignty remains incomplete given the occupation of Kfarshuba Hills and Shebaa Farms by Israel.”
Late on Wednesday, Jumblatt held talks with Culture Minister Abdel-Aziz Khoja at the former’s residence in Clemenceau.
After talks with Leba?nese of?ficials including Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Premier Fouad Siniora, Khoja left Leba?non for Morocco Wednesday to meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, who is spending his summer vacation there.
An-Nahar newspaper repor?ted Wednesday that Khoja carried a letter from King Abdullah, “inquiring about Jumblatt’s latest stances and their repercussions on Lebanese politics.”
The newspaper also quoted Lebanese sources as saying that the Saudi administration sent Khoja to Beirut as part of efforts to revive inter-Arab ties, in particula Saudi-Syrian relations. The sources also told An-Nahar that the visit aimed “to stress Riyadh’s keenness on maintaining security in Lebanon.”
Tackling Jumblatt’s possible visit to Syria, Tawheed Movement head former Minister Wi?am Wahhab said after talks with Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa Wednesday “the road to Damascus is open to Jumblatt.”
Wahhab added that Jumblatt’s visit to Syria needed “no mediation as Syrian officials valued the PSP leader’s stances.”
Nevertheless, Wahhab added that the timing of the visit was yet to be scheduled.
Wahhab said that Hariri wished to visit Damascus “he will be welcomed will all the love and care.”
Jumblatt’s stance regarding the March 14 coalition remained Wednesday the focus of political talks among Lebanon’s political forces, who tied it the cabinet’s formation or the fate of the parliamentary majority.
Berri maintained his optimism Wednesday with regards to the cabinet’s formation, ad?ding that Jumblatt’s recent stan?ces would facilitate the process.
He said Jumblatt’s national stance “will facilitate the formation of a unity cabinet.”
Following his weekly meeting with Sleiman, Berri stressed that Jumblatt’s recent remarks were “understandable given the PSP leader’s intention to merge the March 14 and the opposition.”
“Jumblatt called on the March 14 to revert to his party’s principles with regards to issues such as Arabism and the Palestinian cause,” Berri said.
Also commenting on Jumblatt’s recent stances, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that the PSP leader “did not join the opposition though he would be welcome if he decided to do so.”
Following the weekly meeting of his Reform and Change bloc, Aoun stressed that if “genuine,” Jumblatt’s new stance “will have a negative impact on the March 14.” He said that any possible accord with the PSP “will be announced to the public if it takes place,” adding that the circumstances were not mature yet.
The former general also said the March 14 coalition’s role ended since the gathering lacked a political platform.
Tackling the cabinet’s formation, Aoun said: “Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s trip abroad would be considered a withdrawal [from his duty to form a cabinet] if it exceeds two or three days.” In other news, the March 14 General Secretariat warned on Wednesday against the opposition’s “maneuvers, which aim to hinder the cabinet formation process.”
Following its weekly meeting, the general secretariat urged the opposition to facilitate the formation of a cabinet since, “the March 14 approved a consensus government despite holding the parliamentary majority.” – The Daily Star

Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon
By The Daily Star /Thursday, August 06, 2009
Editorial
Saad Hariri, who is reportedly thinking things over calmly in Europe on a short break, certainly has a big decision ahead of him. There are some whisperings about Hariri’s seemingly surprise move to depart the country, and whether it might allow him to hold meetings with foreign parties. On a day in which Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to Lebanon (and March 14 interlocutor) traveled in and out of Beirut, it’s difficult to claim that political consultations with non-Lebanese can only take place abroad.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to all concerned, let’s say that Hariri’s departure is perfectly understandable, given the circumstances. However, it won’t be perfectly understandable if Hariri returns and intends to do business in the same old-fashioned, Lebanese way.
Four years ago, Hariri was a political novice; since then, he has certainly learned the system. But having a command of Lebanese politics and solving problems are two
separate issues. Each requires a different approach.
As Hariri learned the ropes, much time was spent on anti-Syrian rhetoric. While a call for justice in the assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was understandable, much of the accompanying rhetoric was just that – rhetoric and sloganeering – while the policy side of things was neglected. It was as if Hariri and his allies were campaigning, rather than being a part of government. In February, Hariri acknowledged this disconnect in a speech outlining the country’s urgent and fundamental needs, such as state-building and reform, and attention to health and education – the agenda of Lebanon’s silent majority. We don’t know how much time Hariri and his team have spent on this agenda in the intervening six months, but this is the agenda, of March 14 supporters who put him and his allies in the driver’s seat during the parliamentary elections.
Hariri must abandon the old ways of politics and convince others to join him, in order to save the country. Repairing our bureaucracy, environment, and education system – this can only happen based on a vision. Visions aren’t unrealistic dreams; they’re about hard work, perspiration and details. He can start with something refreshing and important, and something that led him in the direction of an international tribunal in the first place – the state of our own judiciary. By presenting a meaningful, feasible and clear reform agenda, with the focus on the judiciary, Hariri will be leading, as others try to catch up. Diaspora Lebanese would support him, while the local middle class and working class would benefit. It’s detailed and difficult work, but the opportunity still awaits, unless Hariri sees himself as merely the latest entrant into an old game. Departing the country isn’t such a big deal; Lebanese do it all the time. But seeing Lebanon depart its old ways isn’t a fantasy; it’s the only way out.

Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Did Walid Jumblatt really need to drop his political bomb last Sunday at the Beau Rivage Hotel, Rustom Ghazaleh’s former headquarters, in a neighborhood once exemplifying Syrian hegemony? What Jumblatt failed to do quietly in the June parliamentary elections – position himself as arch triangulator and manipulator of the balance in Lebanon’s political system – he did with a crashing of dishes over the weekend. Jumblatt’s former allies are angry, rightly so, but the real question is how all this will affect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
For now, Jumblatt’s move is primarily directed at shaping the formation of the government. While this appears to have been thrown momentarily into disarray, the reality is that it will be very difficult for Saad Hariri to either withdraw from the running or negotiate a new Cabinet formula. On Mon?day, Jumblatt seemed to make that very point when he remarked that he thought his declaration of independence would not change the current Cabinet distribution of 15-10-5. This means that Jumblatt, even though he is no longer of March 14 and has said he would vote with President Michel Sleiman, may yet receive a share of March 14 seats. Jumblatt wants three ministers. In other words, depending on how he leans when it comes to government voting, he will play more significant a role in setting the agenda than if he faithfully toes the March 14 line.
For starters, he now has leverage to bring in ministers of his choice. Jumblatt never swallowed that in the current government he was forced to give up on Nehme Tohme, the Greek Catholic parliamentarian from the Chouf. Tohme, who heads the Al-Mabani contracting company, plays a major role in Jumblatt’s services network. However, it is also important for the Druze leader to name a Christian minister, since he presides over a multi-sectarian region and parliamentary bloc. One of Jumblatt’s first demands of Hariri is likely to be that Tohme get a services ministry.
However, beyond the vicissitudes of patronage politics, Jumblatt has a more complicated thought in mind, one we are entitled to question. By playing the balance in the government and Parliament, from the March 14 quota no less, the Druze leader is striving for an axial role in political life. He wants to be uncircumventable in major political arrangements. Jumblatt remembers that it was the Syrians who greatly enhanced his political stature for three decades, well beyond what the Druze community could have expected. With the Syrians gone, Jumblatt wants to avoid marginalization in a country defined largely by Sunnis and Shiites.
Jumblatt was one of those most responsible for pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, he did so because the Syrian system had changed by 2005. Instead of strengthening the traditional political leaders, the regime of Bashar Assad, through Emile Lahoud and his acolytes, sought to demote them. The extension of Lahoud’s mandate and Rafik Hariri’s assassination went two steps too far. Now Jumblatt is laying the groundwork for a new relationship with Syria. By leaving March 14 and positioning himself between Lebanon’s different political forces, which also means positioning himself between the regional forces shaping Lebanese affairs, Jumblatt believes he will have more margin to maneuver with respect to Damascus. He will try to sell to the Syrians, as he did on Sunday, and as he is likely to do in shaping a Cabinet statement the Syrians are happy with; in turn he hopes again to become a prize Syrian interlocutor in Lebanon
Is this worrisome? It certainly is, because Damascus is politically weak today and Jumblatt’s exertions may well give Assad the latitude he seeks to strengthen himself once again in Lebanon. In fact the fear is that for the Druze leader to maintain a leg up on his domestic partners, he may have to actively work toward facilitating some sort of Syrian restoration – not what it was before 2005, but a system where he can play all sides against each other in order to keep his head above the waves. The problem is that if Jumblatt believes a Syrian return is inevitable, and therefore prepares to gain from this situation, he may actually help advance the return when such a project is not, otherwise, guaranteed success.
Some will argue that Walid Jumblatt can afford to play a mediation role with Syria because the Assad regime has displayed such crying incompetence in Lebanon in recent years, and its partisans are so feeble politically. There is a great deal of truth there. However, the venture is very risky. If one of the most prominent leaders of the emancipation movement of 2005 is so willing to gamble with Lebanon’s sovereignty when it comes to Syria, this will only encourage those defending that sovereignty internationally to argue that the Lebanese are simply not worth the effort. Why should Washington or Paris say no to Syria, which following its Lebanon withdrawal never stopped fighting to regain a dominant role in Beirut, when Lebanese politicians are now saying yes?
Jumblatt cannot drift far from the Saudi line on Lebanon. He can defend his opening to Damascus as part of a broader ef?fort, one that includes Saudi Arabia and the US, to break Syria off from Iran. However, Jumblatt must be careful not to un?dermine Hariri, still the biggest Saudi game in town. He knows this, which is why the Druze leader, once he consolidates his balancing role, will likely reconcile with Hariri in one way or another. Jumblatt sees no benefit in joining the op?position; this would render him politically irrelevant and lose him the funding that allows him to sustain an extensive services network that is the core of his power.
Among the more worrisome aspect of Walid Jumblatt’s turnaround is how it will affect his relations with the Christians. His effort this week to remind everyone of the Druze-Christian reconciliation in the mountain was a sign of his sensitivity to the issue. One of Jumblatt’s motives for his statement on Sunday was his fear that some Christian leaders might make it to Damascus before he does. Yet the Sunnis feel that Jumblatt has betrayed them on Syria’s behalf; Christians wonder why he remains so hostile to them. What does the future hold for the Druze without those two communities? No wonder Jumblatt’s coreligionists are uneasy.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion
By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Tamim Akiki
Regional Press Network
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s fiscal performance report showed an 18 percent increase in the country’s gross deficit to LBP2.35 trillion or $1.56 billion in the first six months of 2009 compared to LBP2 trillion or $1.32 billion during the same period in 2008. However, the gross deficit as a percentage of expenditures remained stable on a year-over-year basis, standing at 27 percent during the period. The Lebanese primary surplus, which excludes debt interest payments, shrunk 9.3 percent to $390 million during the period as spending on the country’s public electricity company, Electricite du Liban (EDL), continued to drain the budget.
In the first six months, spen?ding on EDL reached $1 billion, up 27 percent year-over-year with the increase coming in the first three months of 2009. Ho?wever, starting in March, EDL’s expenses have been dropping steadily to reach $109 million in June, down 16 percent year-over-year. Speaking to RPN, head of economic research at Byblos Bank Nassib Ghobril said that several governments, starting in 2005, have proposed solutions that slightly differ from each other. They include privatizing production and distribution of electricity while keeping transportation in the hands of the government. The electricity company competes with debt interest payments for the top spot on the government’s list of leading burdens on the budget. For years, the consensus over the need to reform the electricity company has not translated into a political consensus over the strategy. However, in the absence of the needed political consensus, none of the plans have been given a chance to be implemented, lamented Ghobril.
Despite the holes in the spending bucket, revenues still posted a 9.9 percent increase in June, bringing the total for the first half of 2009 to $4.27 billion, up 23.4 percent from the same period in 2008. The main revenue drivers in 2009 through June were customs, income taxes, VAT taxes, and telecom services which posted gains of 101 percent, 24 percent, 16 percent, and 12 percent respectively.
Ghobril downplayed the positive significance of revenue figures explaining that growth in 2009 is starting from a very low base in the first half of 2008 when Lebanon didn’t have a president, the impact of the May 7 events, and the unfavorable environment for business sentiment and consumer confidence. This should explain most of the revenue growth in 2009.
Indeed, the revenue momentum in June was to a large part no different from the whole first half, in an apparent effect from the lows of 2008. Customs revenues, which include excise taxes on fuel and cars, leaped 82 percent year-on-year to $149 million and income taxes added 27 percent to $353 million on the back of strong gains in profit taxes.
However, the growth in VAT revenues slowed to 2.7 percent year-on-year in June, but still 16.1 percent ahead in the first six months at $916 million.
Explaining the deceleration, Ghobril said that consumer confidence, which is affected by political developments, remains the main driver of consumer spending, and the lack of confidence drove people to withhold purchases around the election time in June
In fact, the fiscal performance report altogether reflected a financially dysfunctional stream of revenues and expenditures. The top four sources of revenue were the VAT, customs, income tax, and telecommunications while spending was mostly funneled to finance debt obligations, EDL, and general expenditures. Interest expenses, which rose 11 percent in the first six months to $1.95 billion, alone exhausted over 48 percent of the government’s revenues during the period, while EDL took up another 25 percent. Similarly, the contribution of telecommunication services to the budget appeared unstable on a monthly basis as no revenues were recorded in June. Still, revenues from the sector during the first half of 2009 rose 8.4 percent to $626 million on the back of massive increases in April and May following the restructuring of cell phone fees and charges. It wasn’t readily clear why revenues from telecom services were null in June. When asked about the issue, a Telecommunications Ministry spokesman described the matter as internal and non-public.
The spokesman described the ministry as a privately owned company and its financial activities were not to be disclosed. It is not the business of people or journalists to request explanations for such matters, the spokesman told RPN. The telecom sector is another area where reforms have stumbled on the lack of political consensus. The Paris III plan calls for the auctioning of telecom licenses, and even though this is easier than reforming EDL, it still hasn’t happened, said Ghobril.
The issues of privatization and reform are expected to be part of the forthcoming Leba?nese cabinet and future budgets. However, experts continue to question the ability and willingness of any government to undertake the courageous moves that would set the economy on the right footing. From a private sector point of view, we are not optimistic about what the new government will do, said Ghobril. Everybody knows what needs to be done; reforming EDL, fixing the pension system, and auctioning telecom licenses among others.

Shiites want a quiet life, and that’s bad news for Hizbollah
Michael Young
August 05. 2009 1
GMT At the edge of the village of Maroun al Ras, along the Lebanese-Israeli border, lies a microcosm of where South Lebanon finds itself today. Iran has built a public garden there made to look like a rustic retreat, with fake cement logs and dozens of barbecue pits to welcome families looking for an afternoon of relaxation. In its blending of leisure and politics, the garden inadvertently highlights an underlying tension in the temperament of Lebanese Shiites, one that Hizbollah must watch closely.
A visit to Lebanon’s south uncovers contradictory images. Hizbollah remains popular among a majority of Shiites, even as the community’s innate pluralism means the party must accept an implicit contract with its coreligionists: Hizbollah controls the broad politics of the community, but because of the complexities of communal sociology it is obliged to give Shiites, particularly an emerging middle class, the space to be themselves. Alcohol is difficult to find, but it is available in a large town such as Tibnin. Many women are veiled, but there is no obligation to be. The south is not an expanse of uniformity under the rule of an autocratic party.
Even a brief trip through the region shows how difficult it would be for Hizbollah to reactivate a southern military front against Israel. After the summer war of 2006, Hizbollah was forced to accept demilitarisation of the border area under United Nations auspices. A front re-opened would serve not only the party’s agenda, but, more importantly, that of Iran. Hizbollah’s weapons are, above all, an Iranian deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. If Hizbollah could not retaliate, it would fail to fulfil its end of the bargain with Tehran.
For an armed party thriving on conflict – whether against Israel, the United States, or even Hizbollah’s Lebanese adversaries – the biggest hindrance in the south is indolence: the desire among Shiites to lead a normal life. Only conflict gives Hizbollah a reason to exist, but its consequences are what southern Shiites fear most.
Their fear has been largely redirected against Israel, which is understandable, since the consequences of what happened three years ago are visible all around: Bint Jbeil’s destroyed market remains only half-built, homes and properties in many villages are recently repaired, and there are still plenty of no-go areas littered with Israeli cluster bombs. However, fear can cut both ways: heightening antagonism to Israel, but also aversion to a return to the volatile security situation before 2006, which Hizbollah exploited.
Hizbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the 2006 war was a “divine victory”. It wasn’t. The war neutralised the party militarily while the deployment of the Lebanese army and an expanded United Nations force limited its autonomy in the south. Hizbollah exerts political control there, but has less room to manoeuvre on the ground. For example, Wadi Hujayr, a valley not far from the Israeli border, was once a Hizbollah stronghold closed off to outsiders. Under the postwar settlement it is free of gunmen and anyone can drive through it. The party has relocated its main defensive line north of the UN area.
Hizbollah’s public presence in the south is ubiquitous through photographs of the party’s dead militants displayed in every village. As a Shiite friend critical of the party put it: “They remind you of a debt you cannot hope to repay.” Perhaps, but debts you cannot repay can soon be debts forgotten. Amid the images of the dead, interspersed with those of Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei, there is renewed life and vigour. It has nothing to do with the Islamic Revolution and everything to do with Lebanon’s unregimented ways. Where Hizbollah would favour the heaviness of a garrison community eternally at arms, the Shiites, like the rest of their countrymen, prefer the languorous habits of the Mediterranean.
Take the owner of the Restaurant of Liberation in Bint Jbeil, named to honour the victory of the resistance in 2000, when Israel was forced out of Lebanon. What he dreams of are tourists. Western tourists only rarely come his way, he lamented to my friends and me, since they need permission from the army to enter the south. As for Gulf visitors, they almost never drive this far. The restaurant sits at a crossroads where a major battle was fought in 2006. From a shrine across the street, the Hizbollah combatants killed in the conflict look down now over the restaurant’s tables. But the owner is thinking of the future, not reviving the past, no matter how heroic.
That is Hizbollah’s great challenge. Whatever it does, the party thinks largely in terms of the past and past wrongs – inflicted by Israel, the United States, the West, on Shiites, on Lebanon, on the Palestinians, on Arabs in general. The future seems important only to right those wrongs. Shiites remain sensitive to those wrongs, but feel they have paid a high enough price on their behalf. When armed Palestinian groups dominated Lebanon in the early 1970s, it was the Shiites who suffered the most from Israeli retaliation. In the past 15 years, the community has been massively displaced by fighting on three occasions. The essence of Hizbollah’s project is war, but the Shiite aspiration is to leave war behind.
It would be a mistake to assume that Hizbollah is losing ground. Something more subtle is happening: the steady erosion in the Shiite mood required for Hizbollah to impose its military choices in the south without fear of a ruinous backlash if things go wrong. Shiites, quite simply, like living in peace, which limits Hizbollah’s latitude to wage war. The south is where Hizbollah needs to be militarily most relevant, but unless something changes soon in that regard, it may become the place where the party finds its helplessness most pronounced.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star in Lebanon







UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis arrived in Lebanon Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour, the National News Agency reported. Lewis is scheduled to meet President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, interim Premier Fouad Siniora and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh. He is also expected to hold talks with Premier-designate Saad Hariri once the latter returns from a private trip. A statement by the British Embassy in Lebanon said: “Upon his arrival, Minister Lewis visited southern Lebanon and met with local officials in Hasbayya. He then visited UNIFIL’s base in Marjayoun.” Lewis trip is part of Britain’s “continuous support for the political and democratic process and for the formation of a government of national unity,” the statement said. The British government “urges the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 and stresses the significant role that Lebanon can play in the Middle East peace process,” it added. – The Daily Star



Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Wednesday expressed Moscow’s support for Lebanon’s “sovereignty, independence and stability,” as the two countries celebrated 65 years since the establishment of bilateral ties. In a letter to his Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salloukh, Lavrov said Russia was working to “push forward the Middle East peace process according to international and legal foundations, accepted by all sides including, including the Arab peace initiative.” Also in a letter to his Russian counterpart, Salloukh thanked Lavrov for Russia’s “constant support for Lebanon, especially with regards to the liberation of Lebanese land from Israeli occupation.” He expressed hope that Russia will continue to play a supportive role until Lebanon “completes the liberation of the remaining occupied territories in the south.” Salloukh highlighted Lebanon’s “full” commitment to the provisions of UN Resolution 1701 and to the mission of the UNIFIL, while rejecting “any form of amendment to the force’s rules of engagement.” – The Daily Star






Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation
By Maroun Khoury
Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, August 06, 2009
DIMAN: Maronite bishops voiced regret Wednesday over the delay in the formation of the government almost two months following the June 7 parliamentary polls. In a statement issued following the monthly meeting of the Council of Maronite Bishops in the summer seat of the patriarchate in the northern village of Diman, the bishops urged for a swift formation of the Cabinet.
“Lebanon is in dire need of a government that can assume its responsibilities toward the citizens and that can manage the situation in the country,” the council said.
The Council of Maronite Bishops convenes the first Wednesday of every month to discuss recent political developments, in addition to matters related to the Church. The meetings are headed by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
The August statement said that Lebanon has grown “weary of interference in its affairs.”
The bishops called on the Lebanese to “make a common decision to push Lebanon forward while preserving the friendly ties and cooperation that brings the country closer to its neighbors and friends.”
The council praised “efforts aimed at achieving reconciliations in the Lebanese house in general and that of the Maronites in particular.”
Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh is expected to visit the patriarch before August 15 at the prelate’s summer headquarters in the northern village of Diman, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported earlier.
“The visit, expected before August 15, aims to firmly establish the climate of rapprochement and reconciliation with the Maronite sect’s spiritual guide,” sources close to the Marada Movement told the agency.
The expected talks follow a period of “strained relations” between Franjieh and Sfeir. The two leaders will try to “lay the foundations of a new phase of respect and commitment to the Maronite Church’s principles,” the sources said, CNA reported.
Last week, Sfeir said his doors were open to Franjieh, and voiced his support for Christian reconciliation.
“The Maronite Patriarchate’s doors are open to all the Lebanese, especially Maro?nites, including Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh,” Sfeir said.
“The patriarchate will support any step to unite the Lebanese,” he added.
The Sfeir-Franjieh meeting is part of efforts to promote inter-Christian reconciliation.
Franjieh had met in late July with Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel. The efforts led by the Maronite League also aim to reconcile Franjieh with the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.








Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate
Hariri welcome here – Wahhab from Syria
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt stressed Wednesday that his alliance with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri still stands. “I did not and would not abandon Saad Hariri in memory of his father Rafik Hariri and because of the friendship that ties me to Saad Hariri,” Jumblatt told reporters following talks with President Michel Sleiman.
“My message to Sheikh Saad today is that we will stand by him in the government formation process,” he added.
Jumblatt said the March 14 alliance “cannot continue to exist with the same slogans.” But he stressed that he had not left the coalition and called on it to innovate new slogans.
On Sunday Jumblatt said that his alliance with the March 14 group was “driven by necessity and must not continue.”
Head of the March 14 Forces General Secretariat Fares Soueid said Jumblatt’s Sunday speech was “a shock to the March 14 Forces.”
“However,” he added, “We still agree with MP Jumblatt on the fundamentals and will consider his comments as temporary political stances.”
Addressing the March 14 For?ces, Jumblatt said: “I tell my comrades in the March 14 For?ces that we have achieved a lot but that it’s time for a new outlook.” He also voiced hope that his allies would respect the “particularity” of the Druze community and the PSP.
Jumblatt said his meeting with Sleiman aimed to clarify “misunderstandings that surrounded” his Sunday remarks.
He also highlighted that he still endorsed the formation of a national-unity cabinet by Hariri.
“My statement should not be interpreted as an obstruction to the government’s formation; I did not obstruct [the formation process],” Jumblatt said.
The PSP leader stressed that his recent stances should be “considered within the framework of dealing with the repercussions of the May 7 events.”
The May 7, 2008, events broke out between pro-government and opposition gunmen following the Cabinet’s decision to dismantle Hizbullah’s tele?communication network.
Jumblatt said the March 14 Forces’ fight for an independent Lebanon had been successfully achieved, “however the country’s sovereignty remains incomplete given the occupation of Kfarshuba Hills and Shebaa Farms by Israel.”
Late on Wednesday, Jumblatt held talks with Culture Minister Abdel-Aziz Khoja at the former’s residence in Clemenceau.
After talks with Leba?nese of?ficials including Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Premier Fouad Siniora, Khoja left Leba?non for Morocco Wednesday to meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, who is spending his summer vacation there.
An-Nahar newspaper repor?ted Wednesday that Khoja carried a letter from King Abdullah, “inquiring about Jumblatt’s latest stances and their repercussions on Lebanese politics.”
The newspaper also quoted Lebanese sources as saying that the Saudi administration sent Khoja to Beirut as part of efforts to revive inter-Arab ties, in particula Saudi-Syrian relations. The sources also told An-Nahar that the visit aimed “to stress Riyadh’s keenness on maintaining security in Lebanon.”
Tackling Jumblatt’s possible visit to Syria, Tawheed Movement head former Minister Wi?am Wahhab said after talks with Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa Wednesday “the road to Damascus is open to Jumblatt.”
Wahhab added that Jumblatt’s visit to Syria needed “no mediation as Syrian officials valued the PSP leader’s stances.”
Nevertheless, Wahhab added that the timing of the visit was yet to be scheduled.
Wahhab said that Hariri wished to visit Damascus “he will be welcomed will all the love and care.”
Jumblatt’s stance regarding the March 14 coalition remained Wednesday the focus of political talks among Lebanon’s political forces, who tied it the cabinet’s formation or the fate of the parliamentary majority.
Berri maintained his optimism Wednesday with regards to the cabinet’s formation, ad?ding that Jumblatt’s recent stan?ces would facilitate the process.
He said Jumblatt’s national stance “will facilitate the formation of a unity cabinet.”
Following his weekly meeting with Sleiman, Berri stressed that Jumblatt’s recent remarks were “understandable given the PSP leader’s intention to merge the March 14 and the opposition.”
“Jumblatt called on the March 14 to revert to his party’s principles with regards to issues such as Arabism and the Palestinian cause,” Berri said.
Also commenting on Jumblatt’s recent stances, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that the PSP leader “did not join the opposition though he would be welcome if he decided to do so.”
Following the weekly meeting of his Reform and Change bloc, Aoun stressed that if “genuine,” Jumblatt’s new stance “will have a negative impact on the March 14.” He said that any possible accord with the PSP “will be announced to the public if it takes place,” adding that the circumstances were not mature yet.
The former general also said the March 14 coalition’s role ended since the gathering lacked a political platform.
Tackling the cabinet’s formation, Aoun said: “Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s trip abroad would be considered a withdrawal [from his duty to form a cabinet] if it exceeds two or three days.”
In other news, the March 14 General Secretariat warned on Wednesday against the opposition’s “maneuvers, which aim to hinder the cabinet formation process.”
Following its weekly meeting, the general secretariat urged the opposition to facilitate the formation of a cabinet since, “the March 14 approved a consensus government despite holding the parliamentary majority.” – The Daily Star










Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon
By The Daily Star
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Editorial
Saad Hariri, who is reportedly thinking things over calmly in Europe on a short break, certainly has a big decision ahead of him. There are some whisperings about Hariri’s seemingly surprise move to depart the country, and whether it might allow him to hold meetings with foreign parties. On a day in which Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to Lebanon (and March 14 interlocutor) traveled in and out of Beirut, it’s difficult to claim that political consultations with non-Lebanese can only take place abroad.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to all concerned, let’s say that Hariri’s departure is perfectly understandable, given the circumstances. However, it won’t be perfectly understandable if Hariri returns and intends to do business in the same old-fashioned, Lebanese way.
Four years ago, Hariri was a political novice; since then, he has certainly learned the system. But having a command of Lebanese politics and solving problems are two
separate issues. Each requires a different approach.
As Hariri learned the ropes, much time was spent on anti-Syrian rhetoric. While a call for justice in the assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was understandable, much of the accompanying rhetoric was just that – rhetoric and sloganeering – while the policy side of things was neglected. It was as if Hariri and his allies were campaigning, rather than being a part of government.
In February, Hariri acknowledged this disconnect in a speech outlining the country’s urgent and fundamental needs, such as state-building and reform, and attention to health and education – the agenda of Lebanon’s silent majority.
We don’t know how much time Hariri and his team have spent on this agenda in the intervening six months, but this is the agenda, of March 14 supporters who put him and his allies in the driver’s seat during the parliamentary elections.
Hariri must abandon the old ways of politics and convince others to join him, in order to save the country. Repairing our bureaucracy, environment, and education system – this can only happen based on a vision. Visions aren’t unrealistic dreams; they’re about hard work, perspiration and details.
He can start with something refreshing and important, and something that led him in the direction of an international tribunal in the first place – the state of our own judiciary.
By presenting a meaningful, feasible and clear reform agenda, with the focus on the judiciary, Hariri will be leading, as others try to catch up.
Diaspora Lebanese would support him, while the local middle class and working class would benefit. It’s detailed and difficult work, but the opportunity still awaits, unless Hariri sees himself as merely the latest entrant into an old game.
Departing the country isn’t such a big deal; Lebanese do it all the time. But seeing Lebanon depart its old ways isn’t a fantasy; it’s the only way out.

Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Did Walid Jumblatt really need to drop his political bomb last Sunday at the Beau Rivage Hotel, Rustom Ghazaleh’s former headquarters, in a neighborhood once exemplifying Syrian hegemony? What Jumblatt failed to do quietly in the June parliamentary elections – position himself as arch triangulator and manipulator of the balance in Lebanon’s political system – he did with a crashing of dishes over the weekend. Jumblatt’s former allies are angry, rightly so, but the real question is how all this will affect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
For now, Jumblatt’s move is primarily directed at shaping the formation of the government. While this appears to have been thrown momentarily into disarray, the reality is that it will be very difficult for Saad Hariri to either withdraw from the running or negotiate a new Cabinet formula. On Monday, Jumblatt seemed to make that very point when he remarked that he thought his declaration of independence would not change the current Cabinet distribution of 15-10-5. This means that Jumblatt, even though he is no longer of March 14 and has said he would vote with President Michel Sleiman, may yet receive a share of March 14 seats. Jumblatt wants three ministers. In other words, depending on how he leans when it comes to government voting, he will play more significant a role in setting the agenda than if he faithfully toes the March 14 line.
For starters, he now has leverage to bring in ministers of his choice. Jumblatt never swallowed that in the current government he was forced to give up on Nehme Tohme, the Greek Catholic parliamentarian from the Chouf. Tohme, who heads the Al-Mabani contracting company, plays a major role in Jumblatt’s services network. However, it is also important for the Druze leader to name a Christian minister, since he presides over a multi-sectarian region and parliamentary bloc. One of Jumblatt’s first demands of Hariri is likely to be that Tohme get a services ministry.
However, beyond the vicissitudes of patronage politics, Jumblatt has a more complicated thought in mind, one we are entitled to question. By playing the balance in the government and Parliament, from the March 14 quota no less, the Druze leader is striving for an axial role in political life. He wants to be uncircumventable in major political arrangements. Jumblatt remembers that it was the Syrians who greatly enhanced his political stature for three decades, well beyond what the Druze community could have expected. With the Syrians gone, Jumblatt wants to avoid marginalization in a country defined largely by Sunnis and Shiites.
Jumblatt was one of those most responsible for pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, he did so because the Syrian system had changed by 2005. Instead of strengthening the traditional political leaders, the regime of Bashar Assad, through Emile Lahoud and his acolytes, sought to demote them. The extension of Lahoud’s mandate and Rafik Hariri’s assassination went two steps too far. Now Jumblatt is laying the groundwork for a new relationship with Syria. By leaving March 14 and positioning himself between Lebanon’s different political forces, which also means positioning himself between the regional forces shaping Lebanese affairs, Jumblatt believes he will have more margin to maneuver with respect to Damascus. He will try to sell to the Syrians, as he did on Sunday, and as he is likely to do in shaping a Cabinet statement the Syrians are happy with; in turn he hopes again to become a prize Syrian interlocutor in Lebanon
Is this worrisome? It certainly is, because Damascus is politically weak today and Jumblatt’s exertions may well give Assad the latitude he seeks to strengthen himself once again in Lebanon. In fact the fear is that for the Druze leader to maintain a leg up on his domestic partners, he may have to actively work toward facilitating some sort of Syrian restoration – not what it was before 2005, but a system where he can play all sides against each other in order to keep his head above the waves. The problem is that if Jumblatt believes a Syrian return is inevitable, and therefore prepares to gain from this situation, he may actually help advance the return when such a project is not, otherwise, guaranteed success.
Some will argue that Walid Jumblatt can afford to play a mediation role with Syria because the Assad regime has displayed such crying incompetence in Lebanon in recent years, and its partisans are so feeble politically. There is a great deal of truth there. However, the venture is very risky. If one of the most prominent leaders of the emancipation movement of 2005 is so willing to gamble with Lebanon’s sovereignty when it comes to Syria, this will only encourage those defending that sovereignty internationally to argue that the Lebanese are simply not worth the effort. Why should Washington or Paris say no to Syria, which following its Lebanon withdrawal never stopped fighting to regain a dominant role in Beirut, when Lebanese politicians are now saying yes?
Jumblatt cannot drift far from the Saudi line on Lebanon. He can defend his opening to Damascus as part of a broader effort, one that includes Saudi Arabia and the US, to break Syria off from Iran. However, Jumblatt must be careful not to undermine Hariri, still the biggest Saudi game in town. He knows this, which is why the Druze leader, once he consolidates his balancing role, will likely reconcile with Hariri in one way or another. Jumblatt sees no benefit in joining the op?position; this would render him politically irrelevant and lose him the funding that allows him to sustain an extensive services network that is the core of his power.
Among the more worrisome aspect of Walid Jumblatt’s turnaround is how it will affect his relations with the Christians. His effort this week to remind everyone of the Druze-Christian reconciliation in the mountain was a sign of his sensitivity to the issue. One of Jumblatt’s motives for his statement on Sunday was his fear that some Christian leaders might make it to Damascus before he does. Yet the Sunnis feel that Jumblatt has betrayed them on Syria’s behalf; Christians wonder why he remains so hostile to them. What does the future hold for the Druze without those two communities? No wonder Jumblatt’s coreligionists are uneasy.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion
By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Tamim Akiki /Regional Press Network
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s fiscal performance report showed an 18 percent increase in the country’s gross deficit to LBP2.35 trillion or $1.56 billion in the first six months of 2009 compared to LBP2 trillion or $1.32 billion during the same period in 2008. However, the gross deficit as a percentage of expenditures remained stable on a year-over-year basis, standing at 27 percent during the period.
The Lebanese primary surplus, which excludes debt interest payments, shrunk 9.3 percent to $390 million during the period as spending on the country’s public electricity company, Electricite du Liban (EDL), continued to drain the budget.
In the first six months, spen?ding on EDL reached $1 billion, up 27 percent year-over-year with the increase coming in the first three months of 2009. Ho?wever, starting in March, EDL’s expenses have been dropping steadily to reach $109 million in June, down 16 percent year-over-year.
Speaking to RPN, head of economic research at Byblos Bank Nassib Ghobril said that several governments, starting in 2005, have proposed solutions that slightly differ from each other. They include privatizing production and distribution of electricity while keeping transportation in the hands of the government.
The electricity company competes with debt interest payments for the top spot on the government’s list of leading burdens on the budget. For years, the consensus over the need to reform the electricity company has not translated into a political consensus over the strategy.
However, in the absence of the needed political consensus, none of the plans have been given a chance to be implemented, lamented Ghobril.
Despite the holes in the spending bucket, revenues still posted a 9.9 percent increase in June, bringing the total for the first half of 2009 to $4.27 billion, up 23.4 percent from the same period in 2008. The main revenue drivers in 2009 through June were customs, income taxes, VAT taxes, and telecom services which posted gains of 101 percent, 24 percent, 16 percent, and 12 percent respectively.
Ghobril downplayed the positive significance of revenue figures explaining that growth in 2009 is starting from a very low base in the first half of 2008 when Lebanon didn’t have a president, the impact of the May 7 events, and the unfavorable environment for business sentiment and consumer confidence. This should explain most of the revenue growth in 2009.
Indeed, the revenue momentum in June was to a large part no different from the whole first half, in an apparent effect from the lows of 2008. Customs revenues, which include excise taxes on fuel and cars, leaped 82 percent year-on-year to $149 million and income taxes added 27 percent to $353 million on the back of strong gains in profit taxes.
However, the growth in VAT revenues slowed to 2.7 percent year-on-year in June, but still 16.1 percent ahead in the first six months at $916 million.
Explaining the deceleration, Ghobril said that consumer confidence, which is affected by political developments, remains the main driver of consumer spending, and the lack of confidence drove people to withhold purchases around the election time in June
In fact, the fiscal performance report altogether reflected a financially dysfunctional stream of revenues and expenditures. The top four sources of revenue were the VAT, customs, income tax, and telecommunications while spending was mostly funneled to finance debt obligations, EDL, and general expenditures.
Interest expenses, which rose 11 percent in the first six months to $1.95 billion, alone exhausted over 48 percent of the government’s revenues during the period, while EDL took up another 25 percent.
Similarly, the contribution of telecommunication services to the budget appeared unstable on a monthly basis as no revenues were recorded in June. Still, revenues from the sector during the first half of 2009 rose 8.4 percent to $626 million on the back of massive increases in April and May following the restructuring of cell phone fees and charges.
It wasn’t readily clear why revenues from telecom services were null in June. When asked about the issue, a Telecommunications Ministry spokesman described the matter as internal and non-public.
The spokesman described the ministry as a privately owned company and its financial activities were not to be disclosed. It is not the business of people or journalists to request explanations for such matters, the spokesman told RPN.
The telecom sector is another area where reforms have stumbled on the lack of political consensus. The Paris III plan calls for the auctioning of telecom licenses, and even though this is easier than reforming EDL, it still hasn’t happened, said Ghobril.
The issues of privatization and reform are expected to be part of the forthcoming Leba?nese cabinet and future budgets. However, experts continue to question the ability and willingness of any government to undertake the courageous moves that would set the economy on the right footing.
From a private sector point of view, we are not optimistic about what the new government will do, said Ghobril. Everybody knows what needs to be done; reforming EDL, fixing the pension system, and auctioning telecom licenses among others.

U.S. wants Israel to freeze settlement for year: report
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The United States has asked Israel to freeze West Bank settlement for a year to prod Arab countries to take steps toward normalizing relations with the Jewish state, an Israeli newspaper said on Thursday.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in interviews with two Israeli radio stations, made no comment on the report in the Haaretz newspaper.
But he said "an attempt to reach understandings" with Washington over a suspension of construction in settlements was being held in tandem with U.S. President Barack Obama's efforts to persuade Arab countries to make overtures to Israel and revive peace talks.
"All this is in the context of a broad plan for a comprehensive regional agreement that is apparently shaping up as a possible initiative by President Obama with the main focus on the Palestinians and a door kept open, after a certain delay, for Syria and Lebanon," Barak told Israel Radio.
The Haaretz newspaper said a proposal for a one-year settlement freeze in the occupied West Bank was raised by Obama's special envoy, George Mitchell, during talks in Jerusalem last week with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel prefers a six-month freeze, the newspaper said.
Mitchell and Netanyahu said last week they had made progress in their talks.
WIDE RIFT
The issue has opened the widest rift in U.S.-Israeli relations in a decade and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said peace negotiations with Israel, suspended since December, cannot resume until settlement activity ceases.
Barak, who also met Mitchell last week, said on Tuesday Washington would present a Middle East plan within weeks and Israel should accept it.
He has publicly raised the possibility of a deal under which Israel would halt construction in settlements but complete projects under way in return for peace overtures by Arab states.
Arab moves toward commercial or diplomatic ties with Israel could help Netanyahu persuade partners in his right-leaning coalition to accept a compromise on settlements.
But there has been little indication Arab countries in the region would make such gestures without a settlement freeze.
Kuwait and Jordan said last week in Washington that Israel should fulfill its obligations before peace talks can resume. Saudi Arabia accused the Jewish state of not being serious about peace with the Palestinians.
Israeli media have speculated the Obama administration would put forward new peace proposals to try to break the stalemate reached in talks Israel and the Palestinians launched at a conference in Annapolis, Maryland in November 2007.
A U.S. State Department spokesman said last week that Mitchell would announce a peace plan "in a matter of weeks."
(Writing by Joseph Nasr; editing by Andrew Roche)


 

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 07/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 9:2-10. After six days Jesus took Peter, James, and John and led them up a high mountain apart by themselves. And he was transfigured before them, and his clothes became dazzling white, such as no fuller on earth could bleach them. Then Elijah appeared to them along with Moses, and they were conversing with Jesus. Then Peter said to Jesus in reply, "Rabbi, it is good that we are here! Let us make three tents: one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah." He hardly knew what to say, they were so terrified. Then a cloud came, casting a shadow over them; then from the cloud came a voice, "This is my beloved Son. Listen to him." Suddenly, looking around, they no longer saw anyone but Jesus alone with them. As they were coming down from the mountain, he charged them not to relate what they had seen to anyone, except when the Son of Man had risen from the dead. So they kept the matter to themselves, questioning what rising from the dead meant.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Syria celebrates too soon on sanctions. By: Tony Badran, NOW Lebanon 06/08/09
Now Lebanon: Lebanese press round-up: August 6, 2009
Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround. By Michael Young 06/08/09
Shiites want a quiet life, and that's bad news for Hizbollah-By: Michael Young 06/08/09
Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon- The Daily Star 06/08/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 06/09
Britain Concerned About Hizbullah Efforts to Rearm -Naharnet
Lieberman: Israel Committed to Ghajar Sovereignty -Naharnet
U.S. Concerned About Hizbullah Activity, Hints it Isn't Seeking UNIFIL Mandate Change -Naharnet
Al-Anbaa: US Defense Department monitors Israeli drills to be carried out in South. Now Lebanon
Jumblat Confirms Allegiance to Hariri, Calls for New March 14 'Outlook' -Naharnet
Barak Warns against Introducing New Weapon Systems to Lebanon -Naharnet
Jisr: Jumblat Neither in Nor Out of March 14 -Naharnet
Trial of Syrian Officer Accused of Attempting to Plant Bomb on Eve of Hariri's Murder Anniversary Postponed -Naharnet
Hariri Indirectly to Jumblat: You Cannot Remain an Ally when You Are Independent -Naharnet
Terro: We Didn't Leave March 14 to Join Opposition -Naharnet
Police Arrest Notary and 3-Member Gang that Forges Official Documents -Naharnet
Khoja Conveyed Saudi Support for Lebanon -Naharnet
Hariri's Return Likely before Week's End -Naharnet
Aoun's Demands in the New Cabinet -Naharnet
Goksel Skeptical about Amount of Hizbullah Arms The Times Reported -Naharnet
Jumblat From Baabda: Earlier Statements Were Misunderstood, I Won't Abandon Hariri and March 14 Principles -Naharnet
Aoun: Jumblat Did Not Join Opposition but Is 'More than Welcome' -Naharnet
March 14 Warns against March 8 'Maneuvers' to Delay Government Formation -Naharnet
Wahhab: Damascus Road Open for Jumblat -Naharnet
U.S. wants Israel to freeze settlement for year: report-Reuters
Hezbollah reportedly stockpiling 40000 rockets near northern border-Ha'aretz
Ghajar residents don't want to be part of Lebanon-Jerusalem Post
Their last days-Ynetnews
Rebuilding of Lebanon's oldest synagogue begins-The Associated Press
Israel foreign minister visits divided village-AFP
Lieberman: Ghajar belongs to Israel-Ynetnews
Australia not ready to ban radical group: Attorney-General-Xinhua
Israel's Lieberman vows to resolve future of Ghajar-Daily Star
Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate-Daily Star
Hariri expected to continue cabinet efforts abroad-Daily Star
Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty-Daily Star
UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour-Daily Star
Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation-Daily Star
Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion-By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Peace wishes Oldest journalist celebrates joint birthday with Obama-Daily Star
Baroud report calls for reforms-Daily Star
Fouad Boutros Street to solve Achrafieh traffic crisis-Daily Star
June polls widened country’s sectarian gap – LCP-Daily Star
Sidon excavations complete historic legacy-Daily Star

UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis arrived in Lebanon Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour, the National News Agency reported. Lewis is scheduled to meet President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, interim Premier Fouad Siniora and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh. He is also expected to hold talks with Premier-designate Saad Hariri once the latter returns from a private trip. A statement by the British Embassy in Lebanon said: “Upon his arrival, Minister Lewis visited southern Lebanon and met with local officials in Hasbayya. He then visited UNIFIL’s base in Marjayoun.” Lewis trip is part of Britain’s “continuous support for the political and democratic process and for the formation of a government of national unity,” the statement said. The British government “urges the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 and stresses the significant role that Lebanon can play in the Middle East peace process,” it added. – The Daily Star

Al-Anbaa: US Defense Department monitors Israeli drills to be carried out in South
August 6, 2009
-NOW Staff
Al-Anbaa newspaper reported on Thursday that the US Department of Defense was monitoring drills held by the Israeli Special Forces to better prepare them to carry out a series of military operations in South Lebanon that aim at destroying Hezbollah centers south of the Litani River that launch and control short- and medium-range missiles.
The paper quoted Kevin Bart, a researcher at the US Military and Security Academy, as saying that the Israeli Special Forces have held training exercises to be more ready to destroy the control centers and tunnels that Hezbollah militants use in South Lebanon.
“The forces are focusing their drills on the area south of the Litani River to target Hezbollah’s line of defense there,” Bart said.








Syria celebrates too soon on sanctions
Tony Badran, NOW Contributor ,
August 6, 2009
The Obama administration has announced it is easing the processing of certain export licenses to Syria, within the framework of sanctions in effect since the previous administration. Syrian spokesmen were quick to hail this as the crack that would open the floodgates and terminate the sanctions regime altogether. However, subsequent moves by the administration and a strong reaction from Congress suggested, once again, that Syrian triumphalism was badly misplaced.
Although the administration’s move was described in the media as “lifting some sanctions” on Syria, Washington was operating within the legal parameters of the existing sanctions, which allow the issuing of export licenses on certain items, such as spare parts for airplanes to ensure aviation safety. However, this did not include giving Syria the right to purchase or lease new aircraft, which the Syrian Air fleet badly needs.
And yet the Syrians couldn’t contain themselves. Imad Shoueibi, who often reflects the views of the Syrian regime, declared (Arabic) that American sanctions on Syria were all but over, and that President Barack Obama had emptied them of their substance. The Syrian ambassador to Washington, Imad Mustapha, echoed Shoueibi when he told UPI that the Syrians were banking on Obama’s using his administrative authority to override Congress and suspend key articles in the sanctions law.

Mustapha’s optimism may have been understandable, as he needs to prove his usefulness to President Bashar al-Assad in light of the Obama administration’s cautious pace with Damascus. However, the Syrians were in for yet another disappointment when shortly thereafter, Obama renewed an executive order sanctioning Assad’s cousin, Hafez Makhlouf, and another major regime figure, Muhammad Nassif Khayrbek. The executive order addressed Syrian behavior in Lebanon, and the renewal letter signaled that the United States was still waiting for much more from Syria on that front, including ending arms smuggling to Hezbollah, border demarcation and control, and the full implementation of Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701, all things Syria doesn’t want to hear about.

The Syrians are desperately trying to make Iraq the central – indeed the only – avenue for cooperation with American demands. In other words, in return for a belated tightening of control over the Syrian-Iraqi border, Syria now wants Washington to make concessions to improve the bilateral relationship. This is typical of the Syrian bait-and-switch tactic: Sell expired goods in return for significant dispensations from the other side, while Damascus retains its blackmailing capability down the road.

However, Syria is weak and has limited regional assets. This was articulated by an American academic, Joshua Landis, who often echoes Syrian thinking as well, when he explained that “Syria will have to hand over much of its foreign policy bag of tricks simply to purchase normal relations with the West.” The impediment to real change in the Syrian regime’s behavior in a manner that would satisfy American decision-makers is structural and systemic. Syria cannot abandon its support for violence and subversion, or its alliance with Iran, because those are the only tools allowing it to bolster its relevance above its political weight.

This raises serious questions about any meaningful horizon for the Obama administration’s engagement policy. The US Congress might agree. Several congressional representatives, particularly the Democrats among them, reacted negatively to reports that the administration intended to ease the processing of export licenses to Syria – not even their actual lifting. The State Department had to quickly explain that nothing had changed in the sanctions law. In other words, the mere mention of the issue caused an uproar. Many in Washington are waiting for tangible steps from Assad, which have not been, and likely will not be, forthcoming. Ironically, the Syrians’ premature celebration may have made it less likely that the US will soon give them what they want.

In the past the Syrians ridiculed the sanctions as toothless, merely “gumming on the perimeters” of Syria’s economy, as Landis put it. Now they are crying for them to be lifted, signaling that the sanctions are effective after all. The Assad regime is now waiting to see how the administration will handle the executive order targeting Rami Makhlouf, another of Bashar al-Assad’s cousins, due for renewal in February. At this time, nothing suggests it won’t be renewed.
The Obama administration would be well advised to continue leveraging sanctions to obtain concrete, meaningful and irreversible Syrian steps that are in line with American interests. Meanwhile, Assad will continue to do his best to fool the US into selling the house for little or nothing. The administration would do well to continue giving the Syrians a taste of their own medicine. After all, it is Syria that needs the US, not the other way around, notwithstanding Syrian efforts to suggest the contrary.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow with the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.


Now Lebanon:: Lebanese press round-up: August 6, 2009
August 6, 2009
Press round-up for Thursday, August 6th from the morning edition of Lebanon’s An-Nahar, Al-Akhbar, As-Safir, and Ad-Diyar newspapers.
Opening Titles
Khoja met with Sleiman and Siniora before his departure; Berri does not rule out [the formation of] the government by the middle of next week.
Jumblatt’s clarification puts the government formation crisis back in intensive care.
Hariri is still on his “evaluation leave;” no constitutional deadlines for the duration of the mission of the prime minister-designate.
Local News
Sources close to PM-designate Saad Hariri told An-Nahar last night that no progress has been achieved and that the prime minister-designate is on vacation in order to evaluate the overall political situation and come up with the appropriate solution.
MP Walid Jumblatt clarified his position, saying after his meeting with President Sleiman, “I did not and will not abandon the prime minister-designate.” Jumblatt indicated that his position does not mean he withdrew from the March 14 coalition, “rather, it aims to find new slogans.”
Saudi Information and Culture Minister Abdel Aziz Khoja left Beirut yesterday afternoon for Morocco, where the Saudi king is on vacation. An-Nahar has learned that Khoja met with President Sleiman in a behind-the-scenes visit to the Baabda Presidential Palace and also met with outgoing PM Fouad Siniora yesterday.
A majority source told An-Nahar that that the content of Jumblatt’s clarification yesterday was expected and is mainly aimed at preventing him [from] being accused of hindering the formation of the government.
According to sources, ongoing contacts are being made between the General Secretariat of the March 14 Coalition and Democratic Gathering representatives in order to bring the PSP representative back into the secretariat.
Following the meeting of the March 14 General Secretariat yesterday, its general coordinator, former MP Fares Soueid, said that “Jumblatt is an integral part of the March 14 forces even though his position [on Sunday] came as a shock.”
Speaker Berri was surprised by the reports whereby Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri may recant forming the government or remain in seclusion. Berri predicted Hariri will be back in Beirut before the end of the week and did not rule out the formation of the government by the middle of the coming week.
General Michel Aoun described MP Jumblatt’s position as “a natural event that does not require any comments,” welcoming Jumblatt’s joining the opposition “if he wants to” and saying, “No one is dearer to us than him.” Aoun contended that if Hariri does not return [to Lebanon] within two days’ time, “then he would be [intentionally] remaining in seclusion abroad, which is dangerous.”
Former Minister Wiam Wahhab noticeably said from Syria yesterday that “MP Jumblatt is always welcome in Damascus.”
Opening Titles
Jumblatt reassures Hariri and retains his particularity.
Lieberman visits Ghajar, and the village inhabitants refuse its partition.
The United States wants to review the UNIFIL’s mandate, and Graziano refuses.
Local News
Jumblatt divorced those he referred to as “a bad penny” only a few months earlier, i.e. the March 14 Christians, and kept on his bilateral relations with the prime minister-designate, thus forming an integral part of the quadripartite alliance he had been calling for when he stressed the need to form an Islamic bloc.
Jumblatt generated a shock wave that nearly undermined Hariri’s main project, i.e. the formation of a government, which would solidify his leadership after having won the majority in the parliamentary elections, a majority that is now threatened.
Jumblatt has deprived the pro-government forces of the absolute majority which it had been promised to gain in the national-unity government. Meanwhile, the opposition retains the one-third of seats in this government.
The village of Ghajar has returned to the forefront. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman visited the village, saying that Israel has yet to make up its mind and revealing the existence of several suggestions in this respect.
IDF Northern Command Deputy Chief Alon Friedman warned of an escalation of the tense situation along the border with Lebanon.
The UN Security Council did not mention UNIFIL during the general debate it held yesterday regarding the situation of peacekeeping operations around the world. UNIFIL Commander General Claudio Graziano was also absent from the session.
Ambassador Susan Rice, US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, revealed that she met with UNIFIL’s Italian commander, who told her he is against amending UNIFIL’s mandate.
Opening Titles
The PSP leader reassures the prime minister-designate … and receives a message from Syria: Assad is ready to welcome you.
“The Khoja formula”: Jumblatt’s ministers are to be with Hariri and independent from March 14; Aoun is attached to a “key [portfolio]” if changes are made [to the current distribution of ministerial portfolios] … “or else let everything remain the same for everyone.”
Local News
The emergency mission undertaken by Saudi Information and Culture Minister Abdel Aziz Khoja, who is in charge of the “Lebanese file”, managed to re-strengthen PM-designate Saad Hariri’s mission of forming a national-unity government.
The Saudi position was in keeping with that of the United States as expressed by US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, who advised a group of his Lebanese friends not to express their displeasure with MP Walid Jumblatt.
Sources confirmed to As-Safir that PM-designate Saad Hariri paid a quick visit to Morocco, where he met with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz before returning to his yacht off the coast of Nice in order to celebrate his wife’s birthday.
As-Safir has learned that according to the road map drawn by the Saudi envoy with Jumblatt, the Druze members of the Council of Ministers would vote alongside PM Saad Hariri regardless of the March 14 bloc.
Future Movement sources told As-Safir that Jumblatt’s statement following his meeting with President Michel Sleiman is being calmly appraised, and that the relation between Qoreitem and Clemenceau is being reconsidered.
A key member of the Free Patriotic Movement told As-Safir that PM-designate Saad Hariri told Minister Gebran Bassil that he understood the FPM’s demands. Bassil asserted to Hariri that the Change and Reform Bloc is entitled to being represented by four Maronite ministers.
Bassil proposed the following equation to Hariri: If [ministerial portfolios] are to be swapped, the Change and Reform Bloc wants a key portfolio. If not, then the bloc agrees on abiding by the principle of “letting everything remain the same for everyone.”
Opening Titles
Sleiman and Berri isolate the PSP leader’s upheaval from the formation of the government. Wahhab after meeting with Sharaa: The Druze leader is always welcome in Damascus.
Jumblatt to Ad-Diyar: The March 14 revolutionary movement has served its purpose; I insist on my distinctiveness.
Local News
According to confirmed reports, “Speaker Berri called PM-designate Saad Hariri yesterday and kept all communication lines open with MP Jumblatt in order to ‘bridge the gap’ between the two men.” Informed sources revealed that “the efforts made during the past 48 hours successfully ‘isolated’ Jumblatt’s declarations from the formation of the government.” Informed sources also told Ad-Diyar that Jumblatt is likely to travel to France, where he would meet with PM-designate Saad Hariri and initiate a thorough review of their relation in light of Hariri’s admonishment to the Druze leader for his declarations during the PSP Congress at the Beaurivage Hotel.

Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Wednesday expressed Moscow’s support for Lebanon’s “sovereignty, independence and stability,” as the two countries celebrated 65 years since the establishment of bilateral ties. In a letter to his Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salloukh, Lavrov said Russia was working to “push forward the Middle East peace process according to international and legal foundations, accepted by all sides including, including the Arab peace initiative.” Also in a letter to his Russian counterpart, Salloukh thanked Lavrov for Russia’s “constant support for Lebanon, especially with regards to the liberation of Lebanese land from Israeli occupation.” He expressed hope that Russia will continue to play a supportive role until Lebanon “completes the liberation of the remaining occupied territories in the south.” Salloukh highlighted Lebanon’s “full” commitment to the provisions of UN Resolution 1701 and to the mission of the UNIFIL, while rejecting “any form of amendment to the force’s rules of engagement.” – The Daily Star

Hariri Indirectly to Jumblat: You Cannot Remain an Ally when You Are Independent
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri has reportedly informed Druze leader Walid Jumblat, via a third party, that he cannot remain his ally after announcing he was going independent from the majority March 14 coalition. "Either you are my ally in the government or you are somewhere else … with my foes," Hariri allegedly told Jumblat.
"You cannot remain my ally when you are independent," Hariri added. Meanwhile, a well-informed March 14 source told pan-Arab Sharq al-Awsat that the reason behind Jumblat's clarification of his explosive stance was Hariri's "harsh" reaction as well as the lack of attention from March 14. The source said Hariri had severed "direct contact" with Jumblat since Sunday when the Progressive Socialist Party leader made his stance in which he announced he was terminating his alliance with March 14 forces. Hariri had not been answering Jumblat's calls since then, the source added. Another source, however, said Hariri had requested that Jumblat explains what he really wants. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 10:43

Barak: Israel Will Use All Necessary Force in any Conflict with Lebanon
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Thursday against introducing new weapon systems to Lebanon that could upset the military balance and said the Jewish state will get tough in any conflict with Lebanon. He told Israeli public radio that the Jewish state would consider taking "appropriate measures" in the event of introducing weapon systems to Lebanon, pointing to Hizbullah's continued growth. Barak claimed that Hizbullah has stockpiled 40,000 rockets. "We cannot accept that a neighboring U.N. member state should have in its government representatives of a militia that has more than 40,000 rockets," he said. "If there is a conflict on our northern border, we will use all necessary force," Barak warned. "What happened in the second Lebanon war will not happen again ... at the time a message from the United States indicated we must spare Lebanon's infrastructure," he added. "Hizbullah continues arming itself and we must ensure certain types of weapon should not enter Lebanon," Barak said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 13:24

Britain Concerned About Hizbullah Efforts to Rearm
Naharnet/Visiting British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis expressed concern on Thursday about alleged Hizbullah efforts to rearm, saying this is not in line with U.N. Security Council resolution 1701. His stance came during a meeting with Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh, who in turn said that Lebanon hasn't yet received from the Security Council any proof about arms smuggling to Hizbullah. Salloukh told Lewis that U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon's latest report did not mention arms smuggling to the Shiite group, which is an internal issue being discussed on the national dialogue table. The minister also met with President Michel Suleiman and Speaker Nabih Berri. After his talks with Suleiman at Baabda palace, Lewis expressed his country's readiness to help in Lebanon's reconstruction. "Britain believes that political and economic reforms in Lebanon are very important to guarantee a prosperous future." The British envoy said his country was worried about violations of resolution 1701, stressing "Lebanon should seriously continue to implement it."He added that British officials have continuously urged Israel to end violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Lewis arrived in Beirut Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 14:03

Lieberman: Israel Committed to Ghajar Sovereignty
Naharnet/Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the Jewish state is committed to the sovereignty of the Lebanese border town of Ghajar. "There will be no agreement with Lebanon and Syria. Ghajar is entirely under Israeli sovereignty," Lieberman said after a tour of divided Ghajar on Wednesday. "Our decision regarding Ghajar will be based on security and humanitarian concerns; there are 2,000 residents here. We are discussing our ideas with the U.S. and the U.N., but there is no connection to the Syrians or the Lebanese," Lieberman said. He told Ghajar residents: "You weren't conquered by Israel. You were liberated." Following his tour, Lieberman told Ynet that Ghajar residents "want the village to remain under Israeli sovereignty; that is their preferred option. We will deal with the issue from the humanitarian and security-related aspects. I assume that within a few weeks we will formulate our policy regarding the village and present it to Cabinet. "I've yet to reach a decision. The issue must be studied; we need to look at maps and examine documents that have been drafted over the years," he said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 09:43

U.S. Concerned About Hizbullah Activity, Hints it Isn't Seeking UNIFIL Mandate Change
Naharnet/Washington has reiterated that it was concerned about alleged Hizbullah attempts to rearm but hinted that it was not seeking to change the mandate of U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon."We remain extremely concerned about … the role Hizbullah is playing in Lebanon, including its attempts to rearm in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions," State Department Deputy Spokesman Robert Wood said in response to a question on Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's threat that the Jewish state will find itself extremely free to launch a military operation on Lebanon no matter what the consequences will be. "I haven't seen the comments by the Israeli defense minister," Wood said Wednesday during a press briefing, adding "Hizbullah continues to pose a threat to peace and security in the region." He reiterated that the Obama administration fully supports the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.When asked how he reads or views Barak's threat, Wood reiterated that the Israelis, Washington "and others are very concerned about the type of activity that Hizbullah has been engaged in." Wood also told reporters that he has nothing new to add on the issue of U.S. pressure on Syria to demarcate the border with Lebanon.
Meanwhile, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice told reporters following a Security Council debate on peacekeeping operations that she met with UNIFIL Commander Maj. Gen. Claudio Graziano, who told her that the peacekeeping mission's mandate and troop levels are "appropriate." "The most important thing at this point is reinforcing the political will of both parties to uphold the obligations in 1701," Rice said. When asked if the U.S. was requesting an amendment to UNIFIL's mandate, Rice said: "I didn't say that. I said we are looking at it. I am not prepared to say one way or another. But obviously the recommendations of the force commander and other senior personnel on the ground are very important to us."
"As with all these peacekeeping operations, we will review them," she stressed. Israel had officially asked the Security Council to amend UNIFIL's Rules of Engagement following the explosion of an alleged Hizbullah arms cache in Khirbet Selm last month. The Council is expected to extend the mandate of the peacekeeping force for another year during a session on August 27. It will also hold on August 20 a consultative session on challenges facing UNIFIL. During Wednesday's Security Council meeting, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy underscored that effective partnerships are the cornerstone of the world body's new vision for peacekeeping. The so-called New Horizons process seeks to "reinvigorate the peacekeeping partnership," he told the 15-member body.
Issued last month as a non-paper by the U.N. Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) and the Department of Field Support (DFS), it examines how such a revitalized partnership could boost management and oversight, he said. At the end of the open debate, the Council welcomed the non-paper's assessments and recommendations in a presidential statement, encouraging the U.N. Secretariat to continue with providing planning and support for peacekeeping missions. Furthermore, the statement said the body "recognizes the need to weight the full range of responses when addressing a situation which may endanger international peace and security, and to deploy U.N. peacekeeping missions only as an accompaniment, not as an alternative, to a political strategy." Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 08:29

Jumblat Confirms Allegiance to Hariri, Calls for New March 14 'Outlook'
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat confirmed his allegiance to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, yet he called for a new outlook in the majority March 14 coalition. "To ease interpretation, I have said that the March 14 alliance cannot carry on this way," Jumblat said in interviews with several newspapers published Thursday.
"This does not mean quitting (March 14), but rather finding a new outlook," he clarified. "I did not abandon the Premier-designate (Hariri) and I will not dump him in honor of Rafik Hariri and my friendship to Saad Hariri and his enormous efforts with President Michel Suleiman to achieve a consensus government," Jumblat stressed.
Pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat quoted March 14 circles as saying that Jumblat's clarification was "adequate." They believed Jumblat's call for a new March 14 outlook is "subject to discussion."
He reiterated his keenness to maintain his "privacy and distinction." "The Druze mountains and the PSP have some kind of privacy," Jumblat explained. "My allies should respect my privacy."
Jumblat denied he was obstructing formation of a Cabinet lineup, stressing the need to deal with the repercussions of the May 7 events. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 08:21

Jisr: Jumblat Neither in Nor Out of March 14
Naharnet/Mustaqbal Movement MP Samir Jisr said Thursday that Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat was "neither in nor out" of the majority March 14 coalition.
"If you examine what he (Jumblat) said on Sunday, you will fully know that he did not say he was walking out of March 14," Jisr said in an interview with the Voice of Lebanon radio station. "Jumblat himself says he is halfway in; and that practically he is neither in nor out of March 14 forces," Jisr said. He confirmed that there is convergence among March 14 forces on discussing this issue with the Druze leader. "We didn't severe contacts with Jumblat. A meeting among leaders of March 14 will be held and we will be listening attentively to Walid Bek," he said. Jisr did not say when the meeting would take place. On Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, Jisr stressed that Hariri "won't back down on his mission to form a Cabinet."
"He (Hariri) didn't seclude himself and he will return to Lebanon before week's end," he said. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:33

Trial of Syrian Officer Accused of Attempting to Plant Bomb on Eve of Hariri's Murder Anniversary Postponed
Naharnet/The military court has postponed the trial of Syrian army Col. Firas Ghannam and Munir Hilal, a Tunisian. Both men are accused of attempting to plant explosives in Martyr's Square on the eve of the first anniversary of the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri. The postponement of the hearing session -- which was devoted to listening to the testimony of one of the witnesses and coming out with a ruling -- was made due to the absence of Hilal's attorney. The Syrian officer objected, given that he had been detained for more than three and a half years. Ghannam had revealed during preliminary interrogation that Syrian army intelligence officer Col. George Salloum had asked him to plant the explosives in Martyr's Square on the eve of the first anniversary of the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri Feb. 14, 2006. Ghannam said he did not plan to carry out the mission that was assigned to him, adding that he pretended to accept the task in order to be able to leave Syrian territory. He said he had planned to travel to Iraq for "jihad", or holy war, via Lebanon. Hilal, in turn, denied he had carried out or attempted to carry out any terrorist operation. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:24

Terro: We Didn't Leave March 14 to Join Opposition
Naharnet/MP Alaeddine Terro said Thursday that the Progressive Socialist Party did not withdraw from the majority coalition to join opposition ranks and stressed the party holds onto the international tribunal and its alliance with Premier-designate Saad Hariri. "We the Progressive Socialist Party and the Democratic Gathering didn't withdraw from the March 14 forces to join the March 8 alliance … Furthermore, we didn't enter into dialogue with the opposition over the country's problems in order to enter into a dispute with our allies and friends in the Mustaqbal movement and other parties," Terro said during a sports festival. He stressed that the PSP will not give up support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the prosecution of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's suspected assassins. Terro also said that the PSP will continue to support consolidation of national unity and dialogue away from sectarian tensions. On the 2005 Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the MP said: "Occupation will not return and diplomatic relations (with Damascus) are a Lebanese demand since independence.""What we want is preventing division and formation of independent groupings that back the president and the prime minister," Terro said, adding "We will not give up on our alliance with the majority premier."
Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 12:14

Police Arrest Notary and 3-Member Gang that Forges Official Documents
Naharnet/Security forces arrested 3 people in Nabatiyeh for forming a gang that forges official documents, the National News Agency reported Thursday. NNA said police arrested Khalil Gh., Mohammed Gh., and Nael M., who are also wanted on several arrest warrants, during raids on their homes. Security forces seized hundreds of forged IDs and dozens of contracts issued by a notary in Nabatiyeh. The notary, who was also arrested for questioning, was either facilitating the network's work or he may have fallen a victim of the three men's forgery, according to NNA. Beirut, 06 Aug 09, 11:30

Aoun: Jumblat Did Not Join Opposition but Is 'More than Welcome'
Naharnet/MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that MP Walid Jumblat had not joined the opposition but will be "welcomed" if he decided to do so.
Speaking to reporters, Aoun also warned that Premier-designate Saad Hariri's trip abroad will be considered a form of "seclusion" if he delays his return. "A political agreement with Jumblat, when reached, will not only benefit the Druze leader, but will benefit us and the whole society," Aoun said after presiding a meeting of his parliamentary bloc."Jumblat has not joined the opposition, but he will be more than welcome if he does," he added. He said any agreement with Jumblat will be "announced when it happens," adding that the "circumstances" for a meeting between them had not "ripened yet."Aoun said he "can deal with anyone who joins his political line on an equal footing." Aoun considered that the coalition of March 14 ended on the day of March 14 saying it did not have a political platform. "The only thing its members had in common was foreign pressure and money," he said, adding that Jumblat's stances had "negative repercussions" on the Christians team in March 14. "We did not interfere in the affairs of March 14 forces when they were in agreement and we will not interfere now that they are not," Aoun stressed. On Hariri's decision to leave the country on a private trip, Aoun said: "The premier-designate might have traveled for social considerations. "But if his visit extends beyond two or three days, it will then be considered a form of seclusion abroad," he cautioned. He said negotiations on the cabinet shape-up "stopped at the distribution of shares, which have yet to be determined.""The political event (Jumblat's announcement and Hariri's travel) took place before we received an answer to our requests concerning the portfolios," he added. "We are now awaiting Hariri's return to resume talks," the Free Patriotic Movement leader said, repeating his suggestion for a government of "proportional representation."
On another note, Aoun insisted he was not in "severe disagreement" with any of the Christian political teams. "The Change and Reform bloc discussed in the meeting the Maronite League's efforts to reconcile the Christians," he said.
"Any dispute we have with other forces is merely political which is natural in political life," he added. He also denied reports of contacts with Saudi Arabia and said he believed Tuesday's visit to Beirut by Saudi Information Minister Abdul Aziz Khoja will not "affect the new developments."Addressing the Israeli threats, Aoun said: "There is nothing happening on the border that calls for such threats. Israel has problems on the domestic front.""It can either relieve the internal crisis or can move to cause any incident on the border to serve an ulterior motive," he said. Beirut, 05 Aug 09, 18:54

March 14 Warns against March 8 'Maneuvers' to Delay Government Formation
Naharnet/March 14 forces warned Wednesday in statement against political "maneuverings" by March 8 that aim to hamper the formation of a government. "Despite an agreement over the new government's general political structure and directions, mystery is still shrouding the next procedural step," the general secretariat said after its regular meeting. The statement said the stalemate has caused "confusion and anxiety among the people, especially in light of constant Israeli threats that create more urgency for a stable state." "March 14 forces - which is committed to a government of political coalition despite having parliamentary majority - warns of the maneuvers and role playing that the March 8 teams continues to resort to in order to hamper the government's formation," it said. The statement called on March 8 to "match its words with actions." March 14 also renewed commitment to "its principles based on the Bristol meeting." "The Cedar Revolution was based on four main pillars: Islamic-Christian solidarity; Lebanon the homeland comes first; truth and justice for a secure future and solidarity with the Arab world in its attempt to advance its peace initiative," it said. The statement concluded: "Lebanon … is asked to play the required role to develop ties with the Arab world and push forward the peace process. This makes it immune to the possibility of turning into a consolation prize for anyone." Beirut, 05 Aug 09, 16:50

Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation
By Maroun Khoury /Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, August 06, 2009
DIMAN: Maronite bishops voiced regret Wednesday over the delay in the formation of the government almost two months following the June 7 parliamentary polls. In a statement issued following the monthly meeting of the Council of Maronite Bishops in the summer seat of the patriarchate in the northern village of Diman, the bishops urged for a swift formation of the Cabinet. “Lebanon is in dire need of a government that can assume its responsibilities toward the citizens and that can manage the situation in the country,” the council said.
The Council of Maronite Bishops convenes the first Wednesday of every month to discuss recent political developments, in addition to matters related to the Church. The meetings are headed by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir. The August statement said that Lebanon has grown “weary of interference in its affairs.”
The bishops called on the Lebanese to “make a common decision to push Lebanon forward while preserving the friendly ties and cooperation that brings the country closer to its neighbors and friends.” The council praised “efforts aimed at achieving reconciliations in the Lebanese house in general and that of the Maronites in particular.”
Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh is expected to visit the patriarch before August 15 at the prelate’s summer headquarters in the northern village of Diman, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported earlier. “The visit, expected before August 15, aims to firmly establish the climate of rapprochement and reconciliation with the Maronite sect’s spiritual guide,” sources close to the Marada Movement told the agency. The expected talks follow a period of “strained relations” between Franjieh and Sfeir. The two leaders will try to “lay the foundations of a new phase of respect and commitment to the Maronite Church’s principles,” the sources said, CNA reported. Last week, Sfeir said his doors were open to Franjieh, and voiced his support for Christian reconciliation. “The Maronite Patriarchate’s doors are open to all the Lebanese, especially Maro?nites, including Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh,” Sfeir said. “The patriarchate will support any step to unite the Lebanese,” he added. The Sfeir-Franjieh meeting is part of efforts to promote inter-Christian reconciliation. Franjieh had met in late July with Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel. The efforts led by the Maronite League also aim to reconcile Franjieh with the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.

Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate
Hariri welcome here – Wahhab from Syria
Daily Star staff/Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt stressed Wednesday that his alliance with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri still stands. “I did not and would not abandon Saad Hariri in memory of his father Rafik Hariri and because of the friendship that ties me to Saad Hariri,” Jumblatt told reporters following talks with President Michel Sleiman.
“My message to Sheikh Saad today is that we will stand by him in the government formation process,” he added.
Jumblatt said the March 14 alliance “cannot continue to exist with the same slogans.” But he stressed that he had not left the coalition and called on it to innovate new slogans.
On Sunday Jumblatt said that his alliance with the March 14 group was “driven by necessity and must not continue.”
Head of the March 14 Forces General Secretariat Fares Soueid said Jumblatt’s Sunday speech was “a shock to the March 14 Forces.”
“However,” he added, “We still agree with MP Jumblatt on the fundamentals and will consider his comments as temporary political stances.”
Addressing the March 14 For?ces, Jumblatt said: “I tell my comrades in the March 14 For?ces that we have achieved a lot but that it’s time for a new outlook.” He also voiced hope that his allies would respect the “particularity” of the Druze community and the PSP.
Jumblatt said his meeting with Sleiman aimed to clarify “misunderstandings that surrounded” his Sunday remarks.
He also highlighted that he still endorsed the formation of a national-unity cabinet by Hariri.
“My statement should not be interpreted as an obstruction to the government’s formation; I did not obstruct [the formation process],” Jumblatt said.
The PSP leader stressed that his recent stances should be “considered within the framework of dealing with the repercussions of the May 7 events.”
The May 7, 2008, events broke out between pro-government and opposition gunmen following the Cabinet’s decision to dismantle Hizbullah’s tele?communication network.
Jumblatt said the March 14 Forces’ fight for an independent Lebanon had been successfully achieved, “however the country’s sovereignty remains incomplete given the occupation of Kfarshuba Hills and Shebaa Farms by Israel.”
Late on Wednesday, Jumblatt held talks with Culture Minister Abdel-Aziz Khoja at the former’s residence in Clemenceau.
After talks with Leba?nese of?ficials including Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Premier Fouad Siniora, Khoja left Leba?non for Morocco Wednesday to meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, who is spending his summer vacation there.
An-Nahar newspaper repor?ted Wednesday that Khoja carried a letter from King Abdullah, “inquiring about Jumblatt’s latest stances and their repercussions on Lebanese politics.”
The newspaper also quoted Lebanese sources as saying that the Saudi administration sent Khoja to Beirut as part of efforts to revive inter-Arab ties, in particula Saudi-Syrian relations. The sources also told An-Nahar that the visit aimed “to stress Riyadh’s keenness on maintaining security in Lebanon.”
Tackling Jumblatt’s possible visit to Syria, Tawheed Movement head former Minister Wi?am Wahhab said after talks with Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa Wednesday “the road to Damascus is open to Jumblatt.”
Wahhab added that Jumblatt’s visit to Syria needed “no mediation as Syrian officials valued the PSP leader’s stances.”
Nevertheless, Wahhab added that the timing of the visit was yet to be scheduled.
Wahhab said that Hariri wished to visit Damascus “he will be welcomed will all the love and care.”
Jumblatt’s stance regarding the March 14 coalition remained Wednesday the focus of political talks among Lebanon’s political forces, who tied it the cabinet’s formation or the fate of the parliamentary majority.
Berri maintained his optimism Wednesday with regards to the cabinet’s formation, ad?ding that Jumblatt’s recent stan?ces would facilitate the process.
He said Jumblatt’s national stance “will facilitate the formation of a unity cabinet.”
Following his weekly meeting with Sleiman, Berri stressed that Jumblatt’s recent remarks were “understandable given the PSP leader’s intention to merge the March 14 and the opposition.”
“Jumblatt called on the March 14 to revert to his party’s principles with regards to issues such as Arabism and the Palestinian cause,” Berri said.
Also commenting on Jumblatt’s recent stances, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that the PSP leader “did not join the opposition though he would be welcome if he decided to do so.”
Following the weekly meeting of his Reform and Change bloc, Aoun stressed that if “genuine,” Jumblatt’s new stance “will have a negative impact on the March 14.” He said that any possible accord with the PSP “will be announced to the public if it takes place,” adding that the circumstances were not mature yet.
The former general also said the March 14 coalition’s role ended since the gathering lacked a political platform.
Tackling the cabinet’s formation, Aoun said: “Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s trip abroad would be considered a withdrawal [from his duty to form a cabinet] if it exceeds two or three days.” In other news, the March 14 General Secretariat warned on Wednesday against the opposition’s “maneuvers, which aim to hinder the cabinet formation process.”
Following its weekly meeting, the general secretariat urged the opposition to facilitate the formation of a cabinet since, “the March 14 approved a consensus government despite holding the parliamentary majority.” – The Daily Star

Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon
By The Daily Star /Thursday, August 06, 2009
Editorial
Saad Hariri, who is reportedly thinking things over calmly in Europe on a short break, certainly has a big decision ahead of him. There are some whisperings about Hariri’s seemingly surprise move to depart the country, and whether it might allow him to hold meetings with foreign parties. On a day in which Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to Lebanon (and March 14 interlocutor) traveled in and out of Beirut, it’s difficult to claim that political consultations with non-Lebanese can only take place abroad.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to all concerned, let’s say that Hariri’s departure is perfectly understandable, given the circumstances. However, it won’t be perfectly understandable if Hariri returns and intends to do business in the same old-fashioned, Lebanese way.
Four years ago, Hariri was a political novice; since then, he has certainly learned the system. But having a command of Lebanese politics and solving problems are two
separate issues. Each requires a different approach.
As Hariri learned the ropes, much time was spent on anti-Syrian rhetoric. While a call for justice in the assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was understandable, much of the accompanying rhetoric was just that – rhetoric and sloganeering – while the policy side of things was neglected. It was as if Hariri and his allies were campaigning, rather than being a part of government. In February, Hariri acknowledged this disconnect in a speech outlining the country’s urgent and fundamental needs, such as state-building and reform, and attention to health and education – the agenda of Lebanon’s silent majority. We don’t know how much time Hariri and his team have spent on this agenda in the intervening six months, but this is the agenda, of March 14 supporters who put him and his allies in the driver’s seat during the parliamentary elections.
Hariri must abandon the old ways of politics and convince others to join him, in order to save the country. Repairing our bureaucracy, environment, and education system – this can only happen based on a vision. Visions aren’t unrealistic dreams; they’re about hard work, perspiration and details. He can start with something refreshing and important, and something that led him in the direction of an international tribunal in the first place – the state of our own judiciary. By presenting a meaningful, feasible and clear reform agenda, with the focus on the judiciary, Hariri will be leading, as others try to catch up. Diaspora Lebanese would support him, while the local middle class and working class would benefit. It’s detailed and difficult work, but the opportunity still awaits, unless Hariri sees himself as merely the latest entrant into an old game. Departing the country isn’t such a big deal; Lebanese do it all the time. But seeing Lebanon depart its old ways isn’t a fantasy; it’s the only way out.

Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Did Walid Jumblatt really need to drop his political bomb last Sunday at the Beau Rivage Hotel, Rustom Ghazaleh’s former headquarters, in a neighborhood once exemplifying Syrian hegemony? What Jumblatt failed to do quietly in the June parliamentary elections – position himself as arch triangulator and manipulator of the balance in Lebanon’s political system – he did with a crashing of dishes over the weekend. Jumblatt’s former allies are angry, rightly so, but the real question is how all this will affect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
For now, Jumblatt’s move is primarily directed at shaping the formation of the government. While this appears to have been thrown momentarily into disarray, the reality is that it will be very difficult for Saad Hariri to either withdraw from the running or negotiate a new Cabinet formula. On Mon?day, Jumblatt seemed to make that very point when he remarked that he thought his declaration of independence would not change the current Cabinet distribution of 15-10-5. This means that Jumblatt, even though he is no longer of March 14 and has said he would vote with President Michel Sleiman, may yet receive a share of March 14 seats. Jumblatt wants three ministers. In other words, depending on how he leans when it comes to government voting, he will play more significant a role in setting the agenda than if he faithfully toes the March 14 line.
For starters, he now has leverage to bring in ministers of his choice. Jumblatt never swallowed that in the current government he was forced to give up on Nehme Tohme, the Greek Catholic parliamentarian from the Chouf. Tohme, who heads the Al-Mabani contracting company, plays a major role in Jumblatt’s services network. However, it is also important for the Druze leader to name a Christian minister, since he presides over a multi-sectarian region and parliamentary bloc. One of Jumblatt’s first demands of Hariri is likely to be that Tohme get a services ministry.
However, beyond the vicissitudes of patronage politics, Jumblatt has a more complicated thought in mind, one we are entitled to question. By playing the balance in the government and Parliament, from the March 14 quota no less, the Druze leader is striving for an axial role in political life. He wants to be uncircumventable in major political arrangements. Jumblatt remembers that it was the Syrians who greatly enhanced his political stature for three decades, well beyond what the Druze community could have expected. With the Syrians gone, Jumblatt wants to avoid marginalization in a country defined largely by Sunnis and Shiites.
Jumblatt was one of those most responsible for pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, he did so because the Syrian system had changed by 2005. Instead of strengthening the traditional political leaders, the regime of Bashar Assad, through Emile Lahoud and his acolytes, sought to demote them. The extension of Lahoud’s mandate and Rafik Hariri’s assassination went two steps too far. Now Jumblatt is laying the groundwork for a new relationship with Syria. By leaving March 14 and positioning himself between Lebanon’s different political forces, which also means positioning himself between the regional forces shaping Lebanese affairs, Jumblatt believes he will have more margin to maneuver with respect to Damascus. He will try to sell to the Syrians, as he did on Sunday, and as he is likely to do in shaping a Cabinet statement the Syrians are happy with; in turn he hopes again to become a prize Syrian interlocutor in Lebanon
Is this worrisome? It certainly is, because Damascus is politically weak today and Jumblatt’s exertions may well give Assad the latitude he seeks to strengthen himself once again in Lebanon. In fact the fear is that for the Druze leader to maintain a leg up on his domestic partners, he may have to actively work toward facilitating some sort of Syrian restoration – not what it was before 2005, but a system where he can play all sides against each other in order to keep his head above the waves. The problem is that if Jumblatt believes a Syrian return is inevitable, and therefore prepares to gain from this situation, he may actually help advance the return when such a project is not, otherwise, guaranteed success.
Some will argue that Walid Jumblatt can afford to play a mediation role with Syria because the Assad regime has displayed such crying incompetence in Lebanon in recent years, and its partisans are so feeble politically. There is a great deal of truth there. However, the venture is very risky. If one of the most prominent leaders of the emancipation movement of 2005 is so willing to gamble with Lebanon’s sovereignty when it comes to Syria, this will only encourage those defending that sovereignty internationally to argue that the Lebanese are simply not worth the effort. Why should Washington or Paris say no to Syria, which following its Lebanon withdrawal never stopped fighting to regain a dominant role in Beirut, when Lebanese politicians are now saying yes?
Jumblatt cannot drift far from the Saudi line on Lebanon. He can defend his opening to Damascus as part of a broader ef?fort, one that includes Saudi Arabia and the US, to break Syria off from Iran. However, Jumblatt must be careful not to un?dermine Hariri, still the biggest Saudi game in town. He knows this, which is why the Druze leader, once he consolidates his balancing role, will likely reconcile with Hariri in one way or another. Jumblatt sees no benefit in joining the op?position; this would render him politically irrelevant and lose him the funding that allows him to sustain an extensive services network that is the core of his power.
Among the more worrisome aspect of Walid Jumblatt’s turnaround is how it will affect his relations with the Christians. His effort this week to remind everyone of the Druze-Christian reconciliation in the mountain was a sign of his sensitivity to the issue. One of Jumblatt’s motives for his statement on Sunday was his fear that some Christian leaders might make it to Damascus before he does. Yet the Sunnis feel that Jumblatt has betrayed them on Syria’s behalf; Christians wonder why he remains so hostile to them. What does the future hold for the Druze without those two communities? No wonder Jumblatt’s coreligionists are uneasy.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion
By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Tamim Akiki
Regional Press Network
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s fiscal performance report showed an 18 percent increase in the country’s gross deficit to LBP2.35 trillion or $1.56 billion in the first six months of 2009 compared to LBP2 trillion or $1.32 billion during the same period in 2008. However, the gross deficit as a percentage of expenditures remained stable on a year-over-year basis, standing at 27 percent during the period. The Lebanese primary surplus, which excludes debt interest payments, shrunk 9.3 percent to $390 million during the period as spending on the country’s public electricity company, Electricite du Liban (EDL), continued to drain the budget.
In the first six months, spen?ding on EDL reached $1 billion, up 27 percent year-over-year with the increase coming in the first three months of 2009. Ho?wever, starting in March, EDL’s expenses have been dropping steadily to reach $109 million in June, down 16 percent year-over-year. Speaking to RPN, head of economic research at Byblos Bank Nassib Ghobril said that several governments, starting in 2005, have proposed solutions that slightly differ from each other. They include privatizing production and distribution of electricity while keeping transportation in the hands of the government. The electricity company competes with debt interest payments for the top spot on the government’s list of leading burdens on the budget. For years, the consensus over the need to reform the electricity company has not translated into a political consensus over the strategy. However, in the absence of the needed political consensus, none of the plans have been given a chance to be implemented, lamented Ghobril.
Despite the holes in the spending bucket, revenues still posted a 9.9 percent increase in June, bringing the total for the first half of 2009 to $4.27 billion, up 23.4 percent from the same period in 2008. The main revenue drivers in 2009 through June were customs, income taxes, VAT taxes, and telecom services which posted gains of 101 percent, 24 percent, 16 percent, and 12 percent respectively.
Ghobril downplayed the positive significance of revenue figures explaining that growth in 2009 is starting from a very low base in the first half of 2008 when Lebanon didn’t have a president, the impact of the May 7 events, and the unfavorable environment for business sentiment and consumer confidence. This should explain most of the revenue growth in 2009.
Indeed, the revenue momentum in June was to a large part no different from the whole first half, in an apparent effect from the lows of 2008. Customs revenues, which include excise taxes on fuel and cars, leaped 82 percent year-on-year to $149 million and income taxes added 27 percent to $353 million on the back of strong gains in profit taxes.
However, the growth in VAT revenues slowed to 2.7 percent year-on-year in June, but still 16.1 percent ahead in the first six months at $916 million.
Explaining the deceleration, Ghobril said that consumer confidence, which is affected by political developments, remains the main driver of consumer spending, and the lack of confidence drove people to withhold purchases around the election time in June
In fact, the fiscal performance report altogether reflected a financially dysfunctional stream of revenues and expenditures. The top four sources of revenue were the VAT, customs, income tax, and telecommunications while spending was mostly funneled to finance debt obligations, EDL, and general expenditures. Interest expenses, which rose 11 percent in the first six months to $1.95 billion, alone exhausted over 48 percent of the government’s revenues during the period, while EDL took up another 25 percent. Similarly, the contribution of telecommunication services to the budget appeared unstable on a monthly basis as no revenues were recorded in June. Still, revenues from the sector during the first half of 2009 rose 8.4 percent to $626 million on the back of massive increases in April and May following the restructuring of cell phone fees and charges. It wasn’t readily clear why revenues from telecom services were null in June. When asked about the issue, a Telecommunications Ministry spokesman described the matter as internal and non-public.
The spokesman described the ministry as a privately owned company and its financial activities were not to be disclosed. It is not the business of people or journalists to request explanations for such matters, the spokesman told RPN. The telecom sector is another area where reforms have stumbled on the lack of political consensus. The Paris III plan calls for the auctioning of telecom licenses, and even though this is easier than reforming EDL, it still hasn’t happened, said Ghobril.
The issues of privatization and reform are expected to be part of the forthcoming Leba?nese cabinet and future budgets. However, experts continue to question the ability and willingness of any government to undertake the courageous moves that would set the economy on the right footing. From a private sector point of view, we are not optimistic about what the new government will do, said Ghobril. Everybody knows what needs to be done; reforming EDL, fixing the pension system, and auctioning telecom licenses among others.

Shiites want a quiet life, and that’s bad news for Hizbollah
Michael Young
August 05. 2009 1
GMT At the edge of the village of Maroun al Ras, along the Lebanese-Israeli border, lies a microcosm of where South Lebanon finds itself today. Iran has built a public garden there made to look like a rustic retreat, with fake cement logs and dozens of barbecue pits to welcome families looking for an afternoon of relaxation. In its blending of leisure and politics, the garden inadvertently highlights an underlying tension in the temperament of Lebanese Shiites, one that Hizbollah must watch closely.
A visit to Lebanon’s south uncovers contradictory images. Hizbollah remains popular among a majority of Shiites, even as the community’s innate pluralism means the party must accept an implicit contract with its coreligionists: Hizbollah controls the broad politics of the community, but because of the complexities of communal sociology it is obliged to give Shiites, particularly an emerging middle class, the space to be themselves. Alcohol is difficult to find, but it is available in a large town such as Tibnin. Many women are veiled, but there is no obligation to be. The south is not an expanse of uniformity under the rule of an autocratic party.
Even a brief trip through the region shows how difficult it would be for Hizbollah to reactivate a southern military front against Israel. After the summer war of 2006, Hizbollah was forced to accept demilitarisation of the border area under United Nations auspices. A front re-opened would serve not only the party’s agenda, but, more importantly, that of Iran. Hizbollah’s weapons are, above all, an Iranian deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. If Hizbollah could not retaliate, it would fail to fulfil its end of the bargain with Tehran.
For an armed party thriving on conflict – whether against Israel, the United States, or even Hizbollah’s Lebanese adversaries – the biggest hindrance in the south is indolence: the desire among Shiites to lead a normal life. Only conflict gives Hizbollah a reason to exist, but its consequences are what southern Shiites fear most.
Their fear has been largely redirected against Israel, which is understandable, since the consequences of what happened three years ago are visible all around: Bint Jbeil’s destroyed market remains only half-built, homes and properties in many villages are recently repaired, and there are still plenty of no-go areas littered with Israeli cluster bombs. However, fear can cut both ways: heightening antagonism to Israel, but also aversion to a return to the volatile security situation before 2006, which Hizbollah exploited.
Hizbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the 2006 war was a “divine victory”. It wasn’t. The war neutralised the party militarily while the deployment of the Lebanese army and an expanded United Nations force limited its autonomy in the south. Hizbollah exerts political control there, but has less room to manoeuvre on the ground. For example, Wadi Hujayr, a valley not far from the Israeli border, was once a Hizbollah stronghold closed off to outsiders. Under the postwar settlement it is free of gunmen and anyone can drive through it. The party has relocated its main defensive line north of the UN area.
Hizbollah’s public presence in the south is ubiquitous through photographs of the party’s dead militants displayed in every village. As a Shiite friend critical of the party put it: “They remind you of a debt you cannot hope to repay.” Perhaps, but debts you cannot repay can soon be debts forgotten. Amid the images of the dead, interspersed with those of Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei, there is renewed life and vigour. It has nothing to do with the Islamic Revolution and everything to do with Lebanon’s unregimented ways. Where Hizbollah would favour the heaviness of a garrison community eternally at arms, the Shiites, like the rest of their countrymen, prefer the languorous habits of the Mediterranean.
Take the owner of the Restaurant of Liberation in Bint Jbeil, named to honour the victory of the resistance in 2000, when Israel was forced out of Lebanon. What he dreams of are tourists. Western tourists only rarely come his way, he lamented to my friends and me, since they need permission from the army to enter the south. As for Gulf visitors, they almost never drive this far. The restaurant sits at a crossroads where a major battle was fought in 2006. From a shrine across the street, the Hizbollah combatants killed in the conflict look down now over the restaurant’s tables. But the owner is thinking of the future, not reviving the past, no matter how heroic.
That is Hizbollah’s great challenge. Whatever it does, the party thinks largely in terms of the past and past wrongs – inflicted by Israel, the United States, the West, on Shiites, on Lebanon, on the Palestinians, on Arabs in general. The future seems important only to right those wrongs. Shiites remain sensitive to those wrongs, but feel they have paid a high enough price on their behalf. When armed Palestinian groups dominated Lebanon in the early 1970s, it was the Shiites who suffered the most from Israeli retaliation. In the past 15 years, the community has been massively displaced by fighting on three occasions. The essence of Hizbollah’s project is war, but the Shiite aspiration is to leave war behind.
It would be a mistake to assume that Hizbollah is losing ground. Something more subtle is happening: the steady erosion in the Shiite mood required for Hizbollah to impose its military choices in the south without fear of a ruinous backlash if things go wrong. Shiites, quite simply, like living in peace, which limits Hizbollah’s latitude to wage war. The south is where Hizbollah needs to be militarily most relevant, but unless something changes soon in that regard, it may become the place where the party finds its helplessness most pronounced.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star in Lebanon







UK foreign minister visits Lebanon on Mideast tour
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis arrived in Lebanon Wednesday on a two-day visit following a similar trip to Syria as part of a Middle East tour, the National News Agency reported. Lewis is scheduled to meet President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, interim Premier Fouad Siniora and Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh. He is also expected to hold talks with Premier-designate Saad Hariri once the latter returns from a private trip. A statement by the British Embassy in Lebanon said: “Upon his arrival, Minister Lewis visited southern Lebanon and met with local officials in Hasbayya. He then visited UNIFIL’s base in Marjayoun.” Lewis trip is part of Britain’s “continuous support for the political and democratic process and for the formation of a government of national unity,” the statement said. The British government “urges the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 and stresses the significant role that Lebanon can play in the Middle East peace process,” it added. – The Daily Star



Lavrov voices support for Lebanese sovereignty
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Wednesday expressed Moscow’s support for Lebanon’s “sovereignty, independence and stability,” as the two countries celebrated 65 years since the establishment of bilateral ties. In a letter to his Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salloukh, Lavrov said Russia was working to “push forward the Middle East peace process according to international and legal foundations, accepted by all sides including, including the Arab peace initiative.” Also in a letter to his Russian counterpart, Salloukh thanked Lavrov for Russia’s “constant support for Lebanon, especially with regards to the liberation of Lebanese land from Israeli occupation.” He expressed hope that Russia will continue to play a supportive role until Lebanon “completes the liberation of the remaining occupied territories in the south.” Salloukh highlighted Lebanon’s “full” commitment to the provisions of UN Resolution 1701 and to the mission of the UNIFIL, while rejecting “any form of amendment to the force’s rules of engagement.” – The Daily Star






Maronite bishops dismayed by delays in cabinet formation
By Maroun Khoury
Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, August 06, 2009
DIMAN: Maronite bishops voiced regret Wednesday over the delay in the formation of the government almost two months following the June 7 parliamentary polls. In a statement issued following the monthly meeting of the Council of Maronite Bishops in the summer seat of the patriarchate in the northern village of Diman, the bishops urged for a swift formation of the Cabinet.
“Lebanon is in dire need of a government that can assume its responsibilities toward the citizens and that can manage the situation in the country,” the council said.
The Council of Maronite Bishops convenes the first Wednesday of every month to discuss recent political developments, in addition to matters related to the Church. The meetings are headed by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
The August statement said that Lebanon has grown “weary of interference in its affairs.”
The bishops called on the Lebanese to “make a common decision to push Lebanon forward while preserving the friendly ties and cooperation that brings the country closer to its neighbors and friends.”
The council praised “efforts aimed at achieving reconciliations in the Lebanese house in general and that of the Maronites in particular.”
Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh is expected to visit the patriarch before August 15 at the prelate’s summer headquarters in the northern village of Diman, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported earlier.
“The visit, expected before August 15, aims to firmly establish the climate of rapprochement and reconciliation with the Maronite sect’s spiritual guide,” sources close to the Marada Movement told the agency.
The expected talks follow a period of “strained relations” between Franjieh and Sfeir. The two leaders will try to “lay the foundations of a new phase of respect and commitment to the Maronite Church’s principles,” the sources said, CNA reported.
Last week, Sfeir said his doors were open to Franjieh, and voiced his support for Christian reconciliation.
“The Maronite Patriarchate’s doors are open to all the Lebanese, especially Maro?nites, including Marada Movement leader MP Sleiman Franjieh,” Sfeir said.
“The patriarchate will support any step to unite the Lebanese,” he added.
The Sfeir-Franjieh meeting is part of efforts to promote inter-Christian reconciliation.
Franjieh had met in late July with Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel. The efforts led by the Maronite League also aim to reconcile Franjieh with the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.








Jumblatt stresses unwavering alliance with PM-designate
Hariri welcome here – Wahhab from Syria
Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) head Walid Jumblatt stressed Wednesday that his alliance with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri still stands. “I did not and would not abandon Saad Hariri in memory of his father Rafik Hariri and because of the friendship that ties me to Saad Hariri,” Jumblatt told reporters following talks with President Michel Sleiman.
“My message to Sheikh Saad today is that we will stand by him in the government formation process,” he added.
Jumblatt said the March 14 alliance “cannot continue to exist with the same slogans.” But he stressed that he had not left the coalition and called on it to innovate new slogans.
On Sunday Jumblatt said that his alliance with the March 14 group was “driven by necessity and must not continue.”
Head of the March 14 Forces General Secretariat Fares Soueid said Jumblatt’s Sunday speech was “a shock to the March 14 Forces.”
“However,” he added, “We still agree with MP Jumblatt on the fundamentals and will consider his comments as temporary political stances.”
Addressing the March 14 For?ces, Jumblatt said: “I tell my comrades in the March 14 For?ces that we have achieved a lot but that it’s time for a new outlook.” He also voiced hope that his allies would respect the “particularity” of the Druze community and the PSP.
Jumblatt said his meeting with Sleiman aimed to clarify “misunderstandings that surrounded” his Sunday remarks.
He also highlighted that he still endorsed the formation of a national-unity cabinet by Hariri.
“My statement should not be interpreted as an obstruction to the government’s formation; I did not obstruct [the formation process],” Jumblatt said.
The PSP leader stressed that his recent stances should be “considered within the framework of dealing with the repercussions of the May 7 events.”
The May 7, 2008, events broke out between pro-government and opposition gunmen following the Cabinet’s decision to dismantle Hizbullah’s tele?communication network.
Jumblatt said the March 14 Forces’ fight for an independent Lebanon had been successfully achieved, “however the country’s sovereignty remains incomplete given the occupation of Kfarshuba Hills and Shebaa Farms by Israel.”
Late on Wednesday, Jumblatt held talks with Culture Minister Abdel-Aziz Khoja at the former’s residence in Clemenceau.
After talks with Leba?nese of?ficials including Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Premier Fouad Siniora, Khoja left Leba?non for Morocco Wednesday to meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, who is spending his summer vacation there.
An-Nahar newspaper repor?ted Wednesday that Khoja carried a letter from King Abdullah, “inquiring about Jumblatt’s latest stances and their repercussions on Lebanese politics.”
The newspaper also quoted Lebanese sources as saying that the Saudi administration sent Khoja to Beirut as part of efforts to revive inter-Arab ties, in particula Saudi-Syrian relations. The sources also told An-Nahar that the visit aimed “to stress Riyadh’s keenness on maintaining security in Lebanon.”
Tackling Jumblatt’s possible visit to Syria, Tawheed Movement head former Minister Wi?am Wahhab said after talks with Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa Wednesday “the road to Damascus is open to Jumblatt.”
Wahhab added that Jumblatt’s visit to Syria needed “no mediation as Syrian officials valued the PSP leader’s stances.”
Nevertheless, Wahhab added that the timing of the visit was yet to be scheduled.
Wahhab said that Hariri wished to visit Damascus “he will be welcomed will all the love and care.”
Jumblatt’s stance regarding the March 14 coalition remained Wednesday the focus of political talks among Lebanon’s political forces, who tied it the cabinet’s formation or the fate of the parliamentary majority.
Berri maintained his optimism Wednesday with regards to the cabinet’s formation, ad?ding that Jumblatt’s recent stan?ces would facilitate the process.
He said Jumblatt’s national stance “will facilitate the formation of a unity cabinet.”
Following his weekly meeting with Sleiman, Berri stressed that Jumblatt’s recent remarks were “understandable given the PSP leader’s intention to merge the March 14 and the opposition.”
“Jumblatt called on the March 14 to revert to his party’s principles with regards to issues such as Arabism and the Palestinian cause,” Berri said.
Also commenting on Jumblatt’s recent stances, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said Wednesday that the PSP leader “did not join the opposition though he would be welcome if he decided to do so.”
Following the weekly meeting of his Reform and Change bloc, Aoun stressed that if “genuine,” Jumblatt’s new stance “will have a negative impact on the March 14.” He said that any possible accord with the PSP “will be announced to the public if it takes place,” adding that the circumstances were not mature yet.
The former general also said the March 14 coalition’s role ended since the gathering lacked a political platform.
Tackling the cabinet’s formation, Aoun said: “Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s trip abroad would be considered a withdrawal [from his duty to form a cabinet] if it exceeds two or three days.”
In other news, the March 14 General Secretariat warned on Wednesday against the opposition’s “maneuvers, which aim to hinder the cabinet formation process.”
Following its weekly meeting, the general secretariat urged the opposition to facilitate the formation of a cabinet since, “the March 14 approved a consensus government despite holding the parliamentary majority.” – The Daily Star










Only a fresh, meaningful approach to politics by Hariri can save Lebanon
By The Daily Star
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Editorial
Saad Hariri, who is reportedly thinking things over calmly in Europe on a short break, certainly has a big decision ahead of him. There are some whisperings about Hariri’s seemingly surprise move to depart the country, and whether it might allow him to hold meetings with foreign parties. On a day in which Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to Lebanon (and March 14 interlocutor) traveled in and out of Beirut, it’s difficult to claim that political consultations with non-Lebanese can only take place abroad.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to all concerned, let’s say that Hariri’s departure is perfectly understandable, given the circumstances. However, it won’t be perfectly understandable if Hariri returns and intends to do business in the same old-fashioned, Lebanese way.
Four years ago, Hariri was a political novice; since then, he has certainly learned the system. But having a command of Lebanese politics and solving problems are two
separate issues. Each requires a different approach.
As Hariri learned the ropes, much time was spent on anti-Syrian rhetoric. While a call for justice in the assassination of Hariri’s father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was understandable, much of the accompanying rhetoric was just that – rhetoric and sloganeering – while the policy side of things was neglected. It was as if Hariri and his allies were campaigning, rather than being a part of government.
In February, Hariri acknowledged this disconnect in a speech outlining the country’s urgent and fundamental needs, such as state-building and reform, and attention to health and education – the agenda of Lebanon’s silent majority.
We don’t know how much time Hariri and his team have spent on this agenda in the intervening six months, but this is the agenda, of March 14 supporters who put him and his allies in the driver’s seat during the parliamentary elections.
Hariri must abandon the old ways of politics and convince others to join him, in order to save the country. Repairing our bureaucracy, environment, and education system – this can only happen based on a vision. Visions aren’t unrealistic dreams; they’re about hard work, perspiration and details.
He can start with something refreshing and important, and something that led him in the direction of an international tribunal in the first place – the state of our own judiciary.
By presenting a meaningful, feasible and clear reform agenda, with the focus on the judiciary, Hariri will be leading, as others try to catch up.
Diaspora Lebanese would support him, while the local middle class and working class would benefit. It’s detailed and difficult work, but the opportunity still awaits, unless Hariri sees himself as merely the latest entrant into an old game.
Departing the country isn’t such a big deal; Lebanese do it all the time. But seeing Lebanon depart its old ways isn’t a fantasy; it’s the only way out.

Dissecting the Beau Rivage turnaround
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Did Walid Jumblatt really need to drop his political bomb last Sunday at the Beau Rivage Hotel, Rustom Ghazaleh’s former headquarters, in a neighborhood once exemplifying Syrian hegemony? What Jumblatt failed to do quietly in the June parliamentary elections – position himself as arch triangulator and manipulator of the balance in Lebanon’s political system – he did with a crashing of dishes over the weekend. Jumblatt’s former allies are angry, rightly so, but the real question is how all this will affect Lebanon’s sovereignty.
For now, Jumblatt’s move is primarily directed at shaping the formation of the government. While this appears to have been thrown momentarily into disarray, the reality is that it will be very difficult for Saad Hariri to either withdraw from the running or negotiate a new Cabinet formula. On Monday, Jumblatt seemed to make that very point when he remarked that he thought his declaration of independence would not change the current Cabinet distribution of 15-10-5. This means that Jumblatt, even though he is no longer of March 14 and has said he would vote with President Michel Sleiman, may yet receive a share of March 14 seats. Jumblatt wants three ministers. In other words, depending on how he leans when it comes to government voting, he will play more significant a role in setting the agenda than if he faithfully toes the March 14 line.
For starters, he now has leverage to bring in ministers of his choice. Jumblatt never swallowed that in the current government he was forced to give up on Nehme Tohme, the Greek Catholic parliamentarian from the Chouf. Tohme, who heads the Al-Mabani contracting company, plays a major role in Jumblatt’s services network. However, it is also important for the Druze leader to name a Christian minister, since he presides over a multi-sectarian region and parliamentary bloc. One of Jumblatt’s first demands of Hariri is likely to be that Tohme get a services ministry.
However, beyond the vicissitudes of patronage politics, Jumblatt has a more complicated thought in mind, one we are entitled to question. By playing the balance in the government and Parliament, from the March 14 quota no less, the Druze leader is striving for an axial role in political life. He wants to be uncircumventable in major political arrangements. Jumblatt remembers that it was the Syrians who greatly enhanced his political stature for three decades, well beyond what the Druze community could have expected. With the Syrians gone, Jumblatt wants to avoid marginalization in a country defined largely by Sunnis and Shiites.
Jumblatt was one of those most responsible for pushing the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, he did so because the Syrian system had changed by 2005. Instead of strengthening the traditional political leaders, the regime of Bashar Assad, through Emile Lahoud and his acolytes, sought to demote them. The extension of Lahoud’s mandate and Rafik Hariri’s assassination went two steps too far. Now Jumblatt is laying the groundwork for a new relationship with Syria. By leaving March 14 and positioning himself between Lebanon’s different political forces, which also means positioning himself between the regional forces shaping Lebanese affairs, Jumblatt believes he will have more margin to maneuver with respect to Damascus. He will try to sell to the Syrians, as he did on Sunday, and as he is likely to do in shaping a Cabinet statement the Syrians are happy with; in turn he hopes again to become a prize Syrian interlocutor in Lebanon
Is this worrisome? It certainly is, because Damascus is politically weak today and Jumblatt’s exertions may well give Assad the latitude he seeks to strengthen himself once again in Lebanon. In fact the fear is that for the Druze leader to maintain a leg up on his domestic partners, he may have to actively work toward facilitating some sort of Syrian restoration – not what it was before 2005, but a system where he can play all sides against each other in order to keep his head above the waves. The problem is that if Jumblatt believes a Syrian return is inevitable, and therefore prepares to gain from this situation, he may actually help advance the return when such a project is not, otherwise, guaranteed success.
Some will argue that Walid Jumblatt can afford to play a mediation role with Syria because the Assad regime has displayed such crying incompetence in Lebanon in recent years, and its partisans are so feeble politically. There is a great deal of truth there. However, the venture is very risky. If one of the most prominent leaders of the emancipation movement of 2005 is so willing to gamble with Lebanon’s sovereignty when it comes to Syria, this will only encourage those defending that sovereignty internationally to argue that the Lebanese are simply not worth the effort. Why should Washington or Paris say no to Syria, which following its Lebanon withdrawal never stopped fighting to regain a dominant role in Beirut, when Lebanese politicians are now saying yes?
Jumblatt cannot drift far from the Saudi line on Lebanon. He can defend his opening to Damascus as part of a broader effort, one that includes Saudi Arabia and the US, to break Syria off from Iran. However, Jumblatt must be careful not to undermine Hariri, still the biggest Saudi game in town. He knows this, which is why the Druze leader, once he consolidates his balancing role, will likely reconcile with Hariri in one way or another. Jumblatt sees no benefit in joining the op?position; this would render him politically irrelevant and lose him the funding that allows him to sustain an extensive services network that is the core of his power.
Among the more worrisome aspect of Walid Jumblatt’s turnaround is how it will affect his relations with the Christians. His effort this week to remind everyone of the Druze-Christian reconciliation in the mountain was a sign of his sensitivity to the issue. One of Jumblatt’s motives for his statement on Sunday was his fear that some Christian leaders might make it to Damascus before he does. Yet the Sunnis feel that Jumblatt has betrayed them on Syria’s behalf; Christians wonder why he remains so hostile to them. What does the future hold for the Druze without those two communities? No wonder Jumblatt’s coreligionists are uneasy.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Lebanon’s deficit widens by 18 percent to $1.6 billion
By Regional Press Network (RPN)
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Tamim Akiki /Regional Press Network
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s fiscal performance report showed an 18 percent increase in the country’s gross deficit to LBP2.35 trillion or $1.56 billion in the first six months of 2009 compared to LBP2 trillion or $1.32 billion during the same period in 2008. However, the gross deficit as a percentage of expenditures remained stable on a year-over-year basis, standing at 27 percent during the period.
The Lebanese primary surplus, which excludes debt interest payments, shrunk 9.3 percent to $390 million during the period as spending on the country’s public electricity company, Electricite du Liban (EDL), continued to drain the budget.
In the first six months, spen?ding on EDL reached $1 billion, up 27 percent year-over-year with the increase coming in the first three months of 2009. Ho?wever, starting in March, EDL’s expenses have been dropping steadily to reach $109 million in June, down 16 percent year-over-year.
Speaking to RPN, head of economic research at Byblos Bank Nassib Ghobril said that several governments, starting in 2005, have proposed solutions that slightly differ from each other. They include privatizing production and distribution of electricity while keeping transportation in the hands of the government.
The electricity company competes with debt interest payments for the top spot on the government’s list of leading burdens on the budget. For years, the consensus over the need to reform the electricity company has not translated into a political consensus over the strategy.
However, in the absence of the needed political consensus, none of the plans have been given a chance to be implemented, lamented Ghobril.
Despite the holes in the spending bucket, revenues still posted a 9.9 percent increase in June, bringing the total for the first half of 2009 to $4.27 billion, up 23.4 percent from the same period in 2008. The main revenue drivers in 2009 through June were customs, income taxes, VAT taxes, and telecom services which posted gains of 101 percent, 24 percent, 16 percent, and 12 percent respectively.
Ghobril downplayed the positive significance of revenue figures explaining that growth in 2009 is starting from a very low base in the first half of 2008 when Lebanon didn’t have a president, the impact of the May 7 events, and the unfavorable environment for business sentiment and consumer confidence. This should explain most of the revenue growth in 2009.
Indeed, the revenue momentum in June was to a large part no different from the whole first half, in an apparent effect from the lows of 2008. Customs revenues, which include excise taxes on fuel and cars, leaped 82 percent year-on-year to $149 million and income taxes added 27 percent to $353 million on the back of strong gains in profit taxes.
However, the growth in VAT revenues slowed to 2.7 percent year-on-year in June, but still 16.1 percent ahead in the first six months at $916 million.
Explaining the deceleration, Ghobril said that consumer confidence, which is affected by political developments, remains the main driver of consumer spending, and the lack of confidence drove people to withhold purchases around the election time in June
In fact, the fiscal performance report altogether reflected a financially dysfunctional stream of revenues and expenditures. The top four sources of revenue were the VAT, customs, income tax, and telecommunications while spending was mostly funneled to finance debt obligations, EDL, and general expenditures.
Interest expenses, which rose 11 percent in the first six months to $1.95 billion, alone exhausted over 48 percent of the government’s revenues during the period, while EDL took up another 25 percent.
Similarly, the contribution of telecommunication services to the budget appeared unstable on a monthly basis as no revenues were recorded in June. Still, revenues from the sector during the first half of 2009 rose 8.4 percent to $626 million on the back of massive increases in April and May following the restructuring of cell phone fees and charges.
It wasn’t readily clear why revenues from telecom services were null in June. When asked about the issue, a Telecommunications Ministry spokesman described the matter as internal and non-public.
The spokesman described the ministry as a privately owned company and its financial activities were not to be disclosed. It is not the business of people or journalists to request explanations for such matters, the spokesman told RPN.
The telecom sector is another area where reforms have stumbled on the lack of political consensus. The Paris III plan calls for the auctioning of telecom licenses, and even though this is easier than reforming EDL, it still hasn’t happened, said Ghobril.
The issues of privatization and reform are expected to be part of the forthcoming Leba?nese cabinet and future budgets. However, experts continue to question the ability and willingness of any government to undertake the courageous moves that would set the economy on the right footing.
From a private sector point of view, we are not optimistic about what the new government will do, said Ghobril. Everybody knows what needs to be done; reforming EDL, fixing the pension system, and auctioning telecom licenses among others.

U.S. wants Israel to freeze settlement for year: report
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The United States has asked Israel to freeze West Bank settlement for a year to prod Arab countries to take steps toward normalizing relations with the Jewish state, an Israeli newspaper said on Thursday.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in interviews with two Israeli radio stations, made no comment on the report in the Haaretz newspaper.
But he said "an attempt to reach understandings" with Washington over a suspension of construction in settlements was being held in tandem with U.S. President Barack Obama's efforts to persuade Arab countries to make overtures to Israel and revive peace talks.
"All this is in the context of a broad plan for a comprehensive regional agreement that is apparently shaping up as a possible initiative by President Obama with the main focus on the Palestinians and a door kept open, after a certain delay, for Syria and Lebanon," Barak told Israel Radio.
The Haaretz newspaper said a proposal for a one-year settlement freeze in the occupied West Bank was raised by Obama's special envoy, George Mitchell, during talks in Jerusalem last week with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel prefers a six-month freeze, the newspaper said.
Mitchell and Netanyahu said last week they had made progress in their talks.
WIDE RIFT
The issue has opened the widest rift in U.S.-Israeli relations in a decade and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said peace negotiations with Israel, suspended since December, cannot resume until settlement activity ceases.
Barak, who also met Mitchell last week, said on Tuesday Washington would present a Middle East plan within weeks and Israel should accept it.
He has publicly raised the possibility of a deal under which Israel would halt construction in settlements but complete projects under way in return for peace overtures by Arab states.
Arab moves toward commercial or diplomatic ties with Israel could help Netanyahu persuade partners in his right-leaning coalition to accept a compromise on settlements.
But there has been little indication Arab countries in the region would make such gestures without a settlement freeze.
Kuwait and Jordan said last week in Washington that Israel should fulfill its obligations before peace talks can resume. Saudi Arabia accused the Jewish state of not being serious about peace with the Palestinians.
Israeli media have speculated the Obama administration would put forward new peace proposals to try to break the stalemate reached in talks Israel and the Palestinians launched at a conference in Annapolis, Maryland in November 2007.
A U.S. State Department spokesman said last week that Mitchell would announce a peace plan "in a matter of weeks."
(Writing by Joseph Nasr; editing by Andrew Roche)