LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 13/09

Bible Reading of the day
Metthew 7/16 -20: By their fruits you will know them. Do you gather grapes from thorns, or figs from thistles? 7:17 Even so, every good tree produces good fruit; but the corrupt tree produces evil fruit. 7:18 A good tree can’t produce evil fruit, neither can a corrupt tree produce good fruit. 7:19 Every tree that doesn’t grow good fruit is cut down, and thrown into the fire. 7:20 Therefore by their fruits you will know them. 7:21 Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter into the Kingdom of Heaven; but he who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. 7:22 Many will tell me in that day, ‘Lord, Lord, didn’t we prophesy in your name, in your name cast out demons, and in your name do many mighty works?’ 7:23 Then I will tell them, ‘I never knew you. Depart from me, you who work iniquity.’

 

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Ask not what the US can do for Lebanon/By: Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/December 12/09
The Syrian Subpoenas and Lebanese Changes/By: Walid Choucair/December 12/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 12/09
Israel-bound Turkish ship capsizes off Lebanon/Now Lebanon
Lebanon pressing US to deliver military aid/The Associated Press
Hariri in Saudi Arabia on Official Visit/Naharnet
Aoun: We are keen on maintaining friendship with Assad/Now Lebanon
Lebanon's Hariri in Saudi for first official visit as PM/AFP
Aoun: Those Who Criticize FPM in Newspapers Are Not FPMers/Naharnet
Baroud: Interior Ministry Preparing for Municipal Elections in May 2010/Naharnet
Geagea Visits Hariri, Says with Damascus Visit if it Tackles Pending Issues/Naharnet
Iranian VP Congratulates Hariri, Invites Him to Tehran
/Naharnet
Lower voting age not likely before 2010 polls'/Daily Star
Judiciary will view Syrian warrants under Lebanese law/Daily Star
Residents of Ghajar protest rumored Israeli withdrawal/Daily Star
Yemeni Zaydi rebels claim capture of Saudi border post/AFP
Hariri heads for Saudi Arabia as Cabinet congratulations pour in/Daily Star
Development of Arab world stalled by sexist laws and domestic violence/Daily Star
Minority supporters sweep LAU student elections in/Beirut/Daily Star
Green activists hold Beirut vigil urging 'real deal' from Copenhagen Summit/Daily Star

Aoun: Those Who Criticize FPM in Newspapers Are Not FPMers
/Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun addressed his party's victorious students in Antonine University student elections by saying: "Today, we are in front of a new period, some are talking about abolishing political sectarianism, and it will be abolished by your (coming) society, while our society will prepare for this abolition."
"It is required that you accompany us in what we are doing at this stage. The slogan 'Freedom, Sovereignty, Independence' was achieved in 2005, then we won in the 2006 war in the face of the fiercest enemy in the Levant. Today, we have restored the atmosphere of understanding with Al Mustaqbal as well as the calm atmosphere in Mount Lebanon," said Aoun to FPM students.He added: "When you hear some people are criticizing FPM in newspapers and threatening to resign, those are not FPMers, because in FPM there is no oath of allegiance but a belief, and those who lose the belief should leave FPM."Aoun criticized the media by saying: "There are more than 20 stories published about my visit to Bkirki, and that is an evidence on the lies circulated in the news."On the other hand, FPM sources told the Central News Agency that preparations were underway for a visit by Aoun to Saudi Arabia, but added that a specific date was not set yet. Beirut, 11 Dec 09


Baroud: Interior Ministry Preparing for Municipal Elections in May 2010

Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Friday stressed that "the ministry is working as if the municipal election will occur in its specified date in May 2010," adding that "postponing requires decisions by the parliament or the government."After meeting with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir in Bkirki, Baroud urged to implement administrational decentralization.
On the other hand, Baroud said he was acting in accordance with the law regarding the crisis with ISF chief Ashraf Rifi. He expressed his keenness on implementing the manuscript that defines the relation between the interior minister and ISF. "My cooperation is absolute with the Internal Security Forces Command because we are one team, and we should work according to this spirit," added Baroud. Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 18:27

Hariri in Saudi Arabia on Official Visit

Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday evening left Beirut heading to the Saudi capital Riyadh on an official visit that will include meetings with top Saudi officials. Hariri will be accompanied by a delegation consisting of former minister Bassem al-Sabaa, Advisor Nader Hariri, and Media Advisor Hani Hammoud. Before his flight, Hariri met with President Michel Suleiman at the Baabda Palace and left without making any statement. Earlier, Hariri urged to keep the concept of coexistence as the cornerstone of the Lebanese regime and said that Lebanon's potentials should not be "lost in the alleys of sects." During his sponsorship for the opening ceremony of the 53rd edition of the Beirut Book Fair in BIEL, Hariri said: "We are standing at the gateway of a new phase that requires the integration of the elements of political and security stability with the elements of social and economical progress."
Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 20:40

Iranian VP Congratulates Hariri, Invites Him to Tehran

Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri received on Friday a telegram from Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi who congratulated for forming "the national unity government." Rahimi conveyed to Hariri "Iran's unlimited and continuous support for the Lebanese Republic.""The cooperation of our brotherly countries and their solidarity in realizing the causes of their great people will produce fruitful results," added Rahimi. Rahimi also invited Hariri to visit Iran for "friendly talks." Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 17:43

Ask not what the US can do for Lebanon
Hussain Abdul-Hussain,
Now Lebanon/
December 12, 2009
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, formerly his country’s ambassador to Lebanon, often tells the following story: “On March 13, 2005, I cabled Washington saying that given the political situation, demanding a Syrian redeployment into the Bekaa Valley seems to be the choice. Little did I know that more than 1 million Lebanese would take to the streets on March 14 demanding full Syrian withdrawal. The Lebanese were apparently a step ahead of politicians, who then followed.”
Sometime later, a Saudi-Syrian agreement was reached to form a Syrian-Lebanese “Security Committee.” Such a committee, a defiant Walid Jumblatt said at the time, would mean the return of Syrian dominance over Lebanon, and the March 14 leadership killed the suggestion.
For March 14 supporters, those were the days when their leaders, empowered by a sweeping popular mandate, could – and did – practice sovereignty, enjoying their hard-won freedom. America, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran had no choice but to accept Lebanon’s strong independence movement.
Then it collapsed. Some say the turning point came with Hezbollah’s “invasion” of West Beirut in May 2008, while others argue it happened because of a wind-shift in US policy, including the replacement of the savvy Feltman. A third group believes Qatar snatched Paris from March 14 and made out of it a pro-Syrian capital, while a fourth group says the “Lebanese file” in Saudi Arabia was moved from the hands of one group of officials to another, one more sympathetic to Syria.
None of these theories considers what happened inside Lebanon and within March 14. Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun sold out on Lebanese independence, thus weakening the coalition, while the remaining March 14 leaders went into hiding fearing for their lives.
Even before May 2008, some March 14 leaders had lost the stomach for the fight. In late 2007, Feltman addressed a Washington think tank, arguing that his country had thrown its weight behind the election of a Lebanese president with a simple majority. March 14 did not move, arguing this might invite violence from Hezbollah. It came anyway.
One defection after another and one concession after another resulted in a March 14 meltdown.
What remained of March 14, however, was its leaders’ fascination with world affairs. Americans are opening up to Syria, some argued – wrongly as it turned out. Others decided never to go the extra mile without Saudi approval, while a volte face by France was also blamed on the dip in March 14’s fortunes.
In reality, March 14’s leaders never considered it was their failure to act when action was needed, whether through deposing former President Lahoud, appointing Shia ministers after Hezbollah and Amal walked out of the cabinet, electing a president with simple majority or behaving like winners after the June elections. For some reason, the March 14 leaders went from heroes to spectators obsessed with regional politics. Accordingly, Lebanon’s independence, sovereignty and freedom were compromised.
Since then, Lebanon has become a country in March 14’s image: A failure.
It elected Michel Sleiman, an unknown politician, to the presidency. Keen to live up to his description as a consensus leader, Sleiman has proven ineffective in his first 18 months and before that stood by as Hezbollah burned down Future TV and Al-Mustaqbal newspaper.
What is worse, the Sleiman lethargy syndrome has spread through various state institutions. The first to contract the virus were pro-March 14 diplomats, who cannot match their March 8 counterparts when it comes to spreading the political gospel.
In Washington, where Syrian, Libyan and Qatari diplomats and lobbyists show formidable effectiveness, the Lebanese Ambassador, Antoine Chedid, can be found at social functions, but never addressing think tanks or lobbying this senator or that congressperson.
Now, in the name of Lebanese consensus, Sleiman and Chedid are endorsing Hezbollah and Syrian talking points, such as the “right of resistance,” whether or not it achieves any Lebanese consensus, the “benefits of the US opening up to Syria” and more arms for the Lebanese Armed Forces, “though not to implement 1559 or 1701 or any other relevant Security Council resolution,” to name a few.
Lebanese consensus politicians, and now some March 14 leaders, are asking, “What can America do for Lebanon?” The same question is sure to be posed by Sleiman to US President Barak Obama when the two meet in the White House on Monday. Surely Obama should ask Sleiman, “What can you or the once pro-independence leaders do for Lebanon?”
America, like on March 14, 2005, will certainly follow.  

The Syrian Subpoenas and Lebanese Changes

Fri, 11 December 2009

Walid Choucair

http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/85665

The Syrian subpoenas for a number of Lebanese politicians, media figures and judicial and security officials, before Prime Minister Saad Hariri heads to Damascus to begin a trip of normalization (expected to take place before the end of the month), prove that this journey will be difficult. It will be full of bumps, difficulties, hurdles and contradictions that the Lebanese-Syrian relationship is pregnant with, due to the accumulated developments of recent decades, crowned by the animosity of the last five years. There has also been oppression by Damascus and grandstanding by Syria’s Lebanese rivals.

The majority, headed by Hariri, has realized the need to open up to Damascus and normalize relations with it in the coming phase, as a result of changes in regional and international conditions, and as a result of the need to defuse the hostility with Syria. This is in order to achieve a minimum level of domestic stability, to keep up with external changes, such as the behavior of Damascus itself in the regional arena. Syria has its own reading of this openness to it, since it believes itself to be the victor, while the others are coming to it defeated.

Although members of the majority, or Hariri’s allies, have each expressed their support for or understanding of his imminent visit to the Syrian capital, and the ushering in of a new phase in bilateral relations, they also agreed, despite their disparate readings of the changes, that the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement is a new factor that renders Hariri’s visit a natural development. This is in light of American engagement in a dialogue with Syria, through seeking dialogue to implement the decisions of the National Dialogue sessions in Lebanon, with regard to removing Palestinian armed centers outside the refugee camps, controlling weapons inside them, demarcating the Lebanese-Syrian borders, and solving the issue of Lebanese believed to be in Syria. This view is also based on what the Cedar Revolution achieved, namely a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 and the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

These justifications of support for Hariri’s step bring together those who adhere to the Cedar Revolution, such as the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, and those outside the majority (and remaining in it) as part of a policy of protecting the Druze community, the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, despite the differences between the two men.

The members of the majority are seeking cohesion of various levels behind Hariri, at a time in which Damascus appears unprepared to recognize the alliance that the leader of the Future Movement rests on, as it wants him to be its guest by himself. Syria doesn’t recognize the previous era in Lebanon, and what it led to.

In such a situation, it is natural for the leaders of the majority to see the Syrian subpoenas as a signal from Syria that it does not recognize the past era. It is a message that, in their view, Hariri’s visit to Syria to begin normalization and turning the page means turning the page on the past, which should be accompanied by their exclusion, or punishment. It recalls the phase of consolidation of detailed Syrian management of Lebanese affairs, after the election of former President Emile Lahoud in 1998, when he demanded that the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri exclude certain people who were then close to him. Some of these individuals were forcefully and unfairly excluded from public life through various means of oppression, by pressure through Lebanese security officers and some of the submissive judiciary, when most media were co-opted by the then-president.

This phase prompted many to jump to the conclusion that the Syrians have not changed their method of dealing with Lebanon, despite the changes that have taken place, because it is no coincidence that the subpoenas target judges, security officers and politicians close to the young Hariri, and include members of the media.

Although the explanation for the subpoenas that has been given, when a friend of Damascus telephoned and advised that they be withdrawn because they were influencing the atmosphere of rapprochement, was that the Syrian judicial move was separate from political convergence and had nothing to do with it, in parallel to the claim by Hariri and the majority that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is separate from the “fraternal” relationship with Damascus. Moreover, it was said that Syria is unconcerned with its allies’ anxiety about the impact of the subpoenas on the various Lebanese sides.

Most likely, Damascus is also unconcerned with the anxiety of foreign capitals, such as Paris, Riyadh and Ankara, about the resumption of relations between Beirut and Damascus. Is Syria’s goal to receive Hariri so that the discussion is limited to the subpoenas and their withdrawal, in return for his “withdrawal” of the demands on his neighbor, such as demarcating borders, removing the armed, allied Palestinian presence outside the camps, and treating the issue of the missing and disappeared? Is this so the visit will achieve a handshake with the Sunni leader, and not the prime minister of the government of Lebanon?

Syria might not have changed its methods with regard to Lebanon. However, Saad Hariri is coming under circumstances that differ from those in which his father took office, and differ from how Syria formerly played its role in Lebanon.

 

 

 

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 13/09

Bible Reading of the day
Metthew 7/16 -20: By their fruits you will know them. Do you gather grapes from thorns, or figs from thistles? 7:17 Even so, every good tree produces good fruit; but the corrupt tree produces evil fruit. 7:18 A good tree can’t produce evil fruit, neither can a corrupt tree produce good fruit. 7:19 Every tree that doesn’t grow good fruit is cut down, and thrown into the fire. 7:20 Therefore by their fruits you will know them. 7:21 Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter into the Kingdom of Heaven; but he who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. 7:22 Many will tell me in that day, ‘Lord, Lord, didn’t we prophesy in your name, in your name cast out demons, and in your name do many mighty works?’ 7:23 Then I will tell them, ‘I never knew you. Depart from me, you who work iniquity.’

 

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Ask not what the US can do for Lebanon/By: Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/December 12/09
The Syrian Subpoenas and Lebanese Changes/By: Walid Choucair/December 12/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 12/09
Israel-bound Turkish ship capsizes off Lebanon/Now Lebanon
Lebanon pressing US to deliver military aid/The Associated Press
Hariri in Saudi Arabia on Official Visit/Naharnet
Aoun: We are keen on maintaining friendship with Assad/Now Lebanon
Lebanon's Hariri in Saudi for first official visit as PM/AFP
Aoun: Those Who Criticize FPM in Newspapers Are Not FPMers/Naharnet
Baroud: Interior Ministry Preparing for Municipal Elections in May 2010/Naharnet
Geagea Visits Hariri, Says with Damascus Visit if it Tackles Pending Issues/Naharnet
Iranian VP Congratulates Hariri, Invites Him to Tehran
/Naharnet
Lower voting age not likely before 2010 polls'/Daily Star
Judiciary will view Syrian warrants under Lebanese law/Daily Star
Residents of Ghajar protest rumored Israeli withdrawal/Daily Star
Yemeni Zaydi rebels claim capture of Saudi border post/AFP
Hariri heads for Saudi Arabia as Cabinet congratulations pour in/Daily Star
Development of Arab world stalled by sexist laws and domestic violence/Daily Star
Minority supporters sweep LAU student elections in/Beirut/Daily Star
Green activists hold Beirut vigil urging 'real deal' from Copenhagen Summit/Daily Star

Aoun: Those Who Criticize FPM in Newspapers Are Not FPMers
/Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun addressed his party's victorious students in Antonine University student elections by saying: "Today, we are in front of a new period, some are talking about abolishing political sectarianism, and it will be abolished by your (coming) society, while our society will prepare for this abolition."
"It is required that you accompany us in what we are doing at this stage. The slogan 'Freedom, Sovereignty, Independence' was achieved in 2005, then we won in the 2006 war in the face of the fiercest enemy in the Levant. Today, we have restored the atmosphere of understanding with Al Mustaqbal as well as the calm atmosphere in Mount Lebanon," said Aoun to FPM students.He added: "When you hear some people are criticizing FPM in newspapers and threatening to resign, those are not FPMers, because in FPM there is no oath of allegiance but a belief, and those who lose the belief should leave FPM."Aoun criticized the media by saying: "There are more than 20 stories published about my visit to Bkirki, and that is an evidence on the lies circulated in the news."On the other hand, FPM sources told the Central News Agency that preparations were underway for a visit by Aoun to Saudi Arabia, but added that a specific date was not set yet. Beirut, 11 Dec 09


Baroud: Interior Ministry Preparing for Municipal Elections in May 2010

Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Friday stressed that "the ministry is working as if the municipal election will occur in its specified date in May 2010," adding that "postponing requires decisions by the parliament or the government."After meeting with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir in Bkirki, Baroud urged to implement administrational decentralization.
On the other hand, Baroud said he was acting in accordance with the law regarding the crisis with ISF chief Ashraf Rifi. He expressed his keenness on implementing the manuscript that defines the relation between the interior minister and ISF. "My cooperation is absolute with the Internal Security Forces Command because we are one team, and we should work according to this spirit," added Baroud. Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 18:27

Hariri in Saudi Arabia on Official Visit

Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday evening left Beirut heading to the Saudi capital Riyadh on an official visit that will include meetings with top Saudi officials. Hariri will be accompanied by a delegation consisting of former minister Bassem al-Sabaa, Advisor Nader Hariri, and Media Advisor Hani Hammoud. Before his flight, Hariri met with President Michel Suleiman at the Baabda Palace and left without making any statement. Earlier, Hariri urged to keep the concept of coexistence as the cornerstone of the Lebanese regime and said that Lebanon's potentials should not be "lost in the alleys of sects." During his sponsorship for the opening ceremony of the 53rd edition of the Beirut Book Fair in BIEL, Hariri said: "We are standing at the gateway of a new phase that requires the integration of the elements of political and security stability with the elements of social and economical progress."
Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 20:40

Iranian VP Congratulates Hariri, Invites Him to Tehran

Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri received on Friday a telegram from Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi who congratulated for forming "the national unity government." Rahimi conveyed to Hariri "Iran's unlimited and continuous support for the Lebanese Republic.""The cooperation of our brotherly countries and their solidarity in realizing the causes of their great people will produce fruitful results," added Rahimi. Rahimi also invited Hariri to visit Iran for "friendly talks." Beirut, 11 Dec 09, 17:43

Ask not what the US can do for Lebanon
Hussain Abdul-Hussain,
Now Lebanon/
December 12, 2009
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, formerly his country’s ambassador to Lebanon, often tells the following story: “On March 13, 2005, I cabled Washington saying that given the political situation, demanding a Syrian redeployment into the Bekaa Valley seems to be the choice. Little did I know that more than 1 million Lebanese would take to the streets on March 14 demanding full Syrian withdrawal. The Lebanese were apparently a step ahead of politicians, who then followed.”
Sometime later, a Saudi-Syrian agreement was reached to form a Syrian-Lebanese “Security Committee.” Such a committee, a defiant Walid Jumblatt said at the time, would mean the return of Syrian dominance over Lebanon, and the March 14 leadership killed the suggestion.
For March 14 supporters, those were the days when their leaders, empowered by a sweeping popular mandate, could – and did – practice sovereignty, enjoying their hard-won freedom. America, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran had no choice but to accept Lebanon’s strong independence movement.
Then it collapsed. Some say the turning point came with Hezbollah’s “invasion” of West Beirut in May 2008, while others argue it happened because of a wind-shift in US policy, including the replacement of the savvy Feltman. A third group believes Qatar snatched Paris from March 14 and made out of it a pro-Syrian capital, while a fourth group says the “Lebanese file” in Saudi Arabia was moved from the hands of one group of officials to another, one more sympathetic to Syria.
None of these theories considers what happened inside Lebanon and within March 14. Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun sold out on Lebanese independence, thus weakening the coalition, while the remaining March 14 leaders went into hiding fearing for their lives.
Even before May 2008, some March 14 leaders had lost the stomach for the fight. In late 2007, Feltman addressed a Washington think tank, arguing that his country had thrown its weight behind the election of a Lebanese president with a simple majority. March 14 did not move, arguing this might invite violence from Hezbollah. It came anyway.
One defection after another and one concession after another resulted in a March 14 meltdown.
What remained of March 14, however, was its leaders’ fascination with world affairs. Americans are opening up to Syria, some argued – wrongly as it turned out. Others decided never to go the extra mile without Saudi approval, while a volte face by France was also blamed on the dip in March 14’s fortunes.
In reality, March 14’s leaders never considered it was their failure to act when action was needed, whether through deposing former President Lahoud, appointing Shia ministers after Hezbollah and Amal walked out of the cabinet, electing a president with simple majority or behaving like winners after the June elections. For some reason, the March 14 leaders went from heroes to spectators obsessed with regional politics. Accordingly, Lebanon’s independence, sovereignty and freedom were compromised.
Since then, Lebanon has become a country in March 14’s image: A failure.
It elected Michel Sleiman, an unknown politician, to the presidency. Keen to live up to his description as a consensus leader, Sleiman has proven ineffective in his first 18 months and before that stood by as Hezbollah burned down Future TV and Al-Mustaqbal newspaper.
What is worse, the Sleiman lethargy syndrome has spread through various state institutions. The first to contract the virus were pro-March 14 diplomats, who cannot match their March 8 counterparts when it comes to spreading the political gospel.
In Washington, where Syrian, Libyan and Qatari diplomats and lobbyists show formidable effectiveness, the Lebanese Ambassador, Antoine Chedid, can be found at social functions, but never addressing think tanks or lobbying this senator or that congressperson.
Now, in the name of Lebanese consensus, Sleiman and Chedid are endorsing Hezbollah and Syrian talking points, such as the “right of resistance,” whether or not it achieves any Lebanese consensus, the “benefits of the US opening up to Syria” and more arms for the Lebanese Armed Forces, “though not to implement 1559 or 1701 or any other relevant Security Council resolution,” to name a few.
Lebanese consensus politicians, and now some March 14 leaders, are asking, “What can America do for Lebanon?” The same question is sure to be posed by Sleiman to US President Barak Obama when the two meet in the White House on Monday. Surely Obama should ask Sleiman, “What can you or the once pro-independence leaders do for Lebanon?”
America, like on March 14, 2005, will certainly follow.  

The Syrian Subpoenas and Lebanese Changes

Fri, 11 December 2009

Walid Choucair

http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/85665

The Syrian subpoenas for a number of Lebanese politicians, media figures and judicial and security officials, before Prime Minister Saad Hariri heads to Damascus to begin a trip of normalization (expected to take place before the end of the month), prove that this journey will be difficult. It will be full of bumps, difficulties, hurdles and contradictions that the Lebanese-Syrian relationship is pregnant with, due to the accumulated developments of recent decades, crowned by the animosity of the last five years. There has also been oppression by Damascus and grandstanding by Syria’s Lebanese rivals.

The majority, headed by Hariri, has realized the need to open up to Damascus and normalize relations with it in the coming phase, as a result of changes in regional and international conditions, and as a result of the need to defuse the hostility with Syria. This is in order to achieve a minimum level of domestic stability, to keep up with external changes, such as the behavior of Damascus itself in the regional arena. Syria has its own reading of this openness to it, since it believes itself to be the victor, while the others are coming to it defeated.

Although members of the majority, or Hariri’s allies, have each expressed their support for or understanding of his imminent visit to the Syrian capital, and the ushering in of a new phase in bilateral relations, they also agreed, despite their disparate readings of the changes, that the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement is a new factor that renders Hariri’s visit a natural development. This is in light of American engagement in a dialogue with Syria, through seeking dialogue to implement the decisions of the National Dialogue sessions in Lebanon, with regard to removing Palestinian armed centers outside the refugee camps, controlling weapons inside them, demarcating the Lebanese-Syrian borders, and solving the issue of Lebanese believed to be in Syria. This view is also based on what the Cedar Revolution achieved, namely a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 and the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

These justifications of support for Hariri’s step bring together those who adhere to the Cedar Revolution, such as the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, and those outside the majority (and remaining in it) as part of a policy of protecting the Druze community, the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, despite the differences between the two men.

The members of the majority are seeking cohesion of various levels behind Hariri, at a time in which Damascus appears unprepared to recognize the alliance that the leader of the Future Movement rests on, as it wants him to be its guest by himself. Syria doesn’t recognize the previous era in Lebanon, and what it led to.

In such a situation, it is natural for the leaders of the majority to see the Syrian subpoenas as a signal from Syria that it does not recognize the past era. It is a message that, in their view, Hariri’s visit to Syria to begin normalization and turning the page means turning the page on the past, which should be accompanied by their exclusion, or punishment. It recalls the phase of consolidation of detailed Syrian management of Lebanese affairs, after the election of former President Emile Lahoud in 1998, when he demanded that the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri exclude certain people who were then close to him. Some of these individuals were forcefully and unfairly excluded from public life through various means of oppression, by pressure through Lebanese security officers and some of the submissive judiciary, when most media were co-opted by the then-president.

This phase prompted many to jump to the conclusion that the Syrians have not changed their method of dealing with Lebanon, despite the changes that have taken place, because it is no coincidence that the subpoenas target judges, security officers and politicians close to the young Hariri, and include members of the media.

Although the explanation for the subpoenas that has been given, when a friend of Damascus telephoned and advised that they be withdrawn because they were influencing the atmosphere of rapprochement, was that the Syrian judicial move was separate from political convergence and had nothing to do with it, in parallel to the claim by Hariri and the majority that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is separate from the “fraternal” relationship with Damascus. Moreover, it was said that Syria is unconcerned with its allies’ anxiety about the impact of the subpoenas on the various Lebanese sides.

Most likely, Damascus is also unconcerned with the anxiety of foreign capitals, such as Paris, Riyadh and Ankara, about the resumption of relations between Beirut and Damascus. Is Syria’s goal to receive Hariri so that the discussion is limited to the subpoenas and their withdrawal, in return for his “withdrawal” of the demands on his neighbor, such as demarcating borders, removing the armed, allied Palestinian presence outside the camps, and treating the issue of the missing and disappeared? Is this so the visit will achieve a handshake with the Sunni leader, and not the prime minister of the government of Lebanon?

Syria might not have changed its methods with regard to Lebanon. However, Saad Hariri is coming under circumstances that differ from those in which his father took office, and differ from how Syria formerly played its role in Lebanon.