LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 23/09

Bible Reading of the day
Psalm 112/Praise Yah!* Blessed is the man who fears Yahweh, who delights greatly in his commandments. His seed will be mighty in the land. The generation of the upright will be blessed. Wealth and riches are in his house. His righteousness endures forever. Light dawns in the darkness for the upright, gracious, merciful, and righteous. It is well with the man who deals graciously and lends. He will maintain his cause in judgment.  For he will never be shaken. The righteous will be remembered forever.  He will not be afraid of evil news. His heart is steadfast, trusting in Yahweh. His heart is established. He will not be afraid in the end when he sees his adversaries. He has dispersed, he has given to the poor. His righteousness endures forever. His horn will be exalted with honor. The wicked will see it, and be grieved. He shall gnash with his teeth, and melt away. The desire of the wicked will perish.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The “Lebanonization” of Iraq/By: Tony Badran/December 22/09
The real test is to come/Now Lebanon/December 22/09
LEBANON: Rapprochement with Syria bittersweet for 'Cedar' revolutionaries/December 22/09
Why minarets shouldn’t matter/The Daily Star/December 22/09
The next war will be in Gaza, once again/By Bruce Riedel/December 22/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 22/09
Gemayel says Kataeb MPs will appeal Article 6 of Ministerial Statement/Now Lebanon
Mashnouq: Lebanese-Syrian reconciliation, a prolongation of the Saudi-Syrian summit/Future Web site
Shamoun: there is a party that aims at weakening the state/Future Web site
Fatfat: For the Lebanese-Syrian new approach to be interpreted by practical deeds/Future Web site
Cabinet's 1st Meeting: Wrangling between Hariri, Aridi, Bassil, Nahhas/Naharnet
Baroud: Traffic Jam Crisis Caused by Inadequate Roads Not Police Performance/Naharnet
NYT: Hariri's Damascus Visit a 'Measure of Renewed Influence over Lebanon/Naharnet
Kouchner: France has Often Been Disappointed in Syria/Naharnet
Geagea: Border Demarcation Starting from the North Not Encouraging Sign by Syria/Naharnet
Sfeir: Lebanese Still Seeking Jobs Abroad/Naharnet
Assad-Hariri Agree to Start Border Demarcation from North to South/Naharnet
Hizbullah: Hariri's Damascus Visit Put Things Back on Right Track/Naharnet
Jumblat: Hariri's Visit to Damascus Helps in Surpassing Previous 'Black Phase'/Naharnet
Syrian Citizen Killed as Assailants Shoot at Bus in Deir Emar/Naharnet
Mottaki from Beirut: Lebanon Proved It Doesn't Need Foreign Intervention in Its Affairs/Naharnet
Syria Demands Roed-Larsen's Dismissal, Says it Implemented 1559/Naharnet
Hariri Briefs Cabinet on Results of his Talks with Assad/Naharnet
Assailants Tear Tires of UNIFIL Employee Vehicles in Tyre/Naharnet
Franjieh Hails Hariri's 'Bold' Move to Visit Damascus/Naharnet
Syria: Remove UN Representative Terje Roed-Larsen/MEMRI (blog)
Hariri visit seen as turning point in Lebanon-Syria ties/AFP
Ehud Barak: Israel's target is Lebanon, Not Hezbollah/Pravda
Serbian Peacekeepers could be sent to Lebanon/Agencies
The Grace of Damascus/Middle East Online
Hariri visit 'turning point in Syria ties'/Gulf Daily News
Iran flexes muscles in Iraq border dispute/Reuters
Springtime for Syria/Globe and Mail
Iranian FM praises Lebanon's rejection of foreign interference/Xinhua
UN ends search for survivors after ship sinks near Lebanon/CNN
Pope’s would-be assassin to be freed in January: lawyer/AFP
Beirut ranks 52nd globally in house prices, 53rd in rental yield/Daily Star
US Ambassador Sison visits YWCA to praise new staff/Daily Star
UNIFIL vehicles vandalized in southern attacks/Daily Star
Migrant domestic workers left unprotected despite reforms
Spanish army’s defense chief visits UNIFIL troops/Daily Star
Rescuers find six more bodies from shipwreck/AFP
 

Gemayel says Kataeb MPs will appeal Article 6 of Ministerial Statement
December 22, 2009 /Now Lebanon
During a press conference in Saifi on Tuesday, Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel said that his party’s MPs will appeal Article 6 of the Ministerial Statement—which pertains to Hezbollah and its arms—to the Constitutional Council. “The appeal aims at ruling [Article 6] unconstitutional,” he said, adding the Constitutional Council has the right to do so. Gemayel said that a “huge portion” of the Lebanese population opposes Article 6, which, he said, makes it worthwhile to challenge its constitutionality. He also said that the Kataeb cannot betray its principles and added that the “initiative” over Article 6 aims to encourage all the parties to resort to constitutional institutions. Gemayel also said that his MP’s initiative strengthens the role of the constitutional, administrative and judicial institutions and state building, which, he said, are all his party’s goals. He added that if the constitutional institutions carry out their roles in “resolving pointless disputes,” then clashes, like those which occurred during May 2008, would not be resolved on the “streets.” Gemayel also spoke about his party’s relations with Hezbollah, saying dialogue with all the Lebanese parties is “necessary.” He added that the Kataeb initiative does not obstruct rapprochement and reconciliation, but rather encourages them.
Gemayel also said that he is not considering a visit to Syria. -NOW Lebanon

The real test is to come
December 21, 2009
Now Lebanon
The road to Damascus was paved with dilemmas for Prime Minister Saad Hariri, both on a national and a personal level. Not only was the Syrian regime instrumental, with Saudi Arabia, in shaping the most recent Lebanese cabinet line-up, one that effectively watered down the March 14 coalition’s victory in the summer elections, it is the main suspect in Hariri’s father’s murder along with a string of subsequent killings and bombings. The visit, allegedly one of the consequences of the Syria-Saudi entente, was always going to be fraught.
Many Lebanese, almost exclusively those who support the ideals of the March 14 movement, will have been uncomfortable by the TV images beamed out of Damascus of Hariri kissing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They will no doubt see the trip as a setback in Lebanon’s bid to consolidate its sovereignty over its territory and reinforce its democratic credentials. They will have resigned themselves to the fact that Syria still has a role in shaping Lebanese affairs through a loyal, not to mention well-armed, opposition, that it still runs guerrilla training camps in parts of the Bekaa and the southern approaches to Beirut, and that it has armed – or tolerated the rearmament of – Hezbollah through its notoriously porous border.
It’s not ideal; then again it never was. But, as the lyrics to the song remind us, it ain’t what you do but the way that you do it, and Hariri sought, successfully or not, to soften the impact of what many will have seen as the final act of capitulation by March 14 to nearly five years of Syrian pressure.
Firstly, his delegation flew rather than drove to Syria. This was important to stress its geographical “separation” from Lebanon. Secondly, he framed the visit in the context of his government’s ministerial policy statement and as part of a series of regional trips intended to, as he put it, “reunite Arab states and unify Arab positions on regional challenges.” In that way, he underlined that Lebanon’s relations with Syria would not be shaped by his family’s personal beef with the Baathist regime. In short, Hariri was styling himself as an Arab leader doing what an Arab leaders does. Privately, he might admit that there are sacrifices to be made for Lebanon’s stability, but being a lackey, like many of his predecessors were, is not one of them.
If we look at the glass half full, Hariri has passed his first test as prime minister, despite Syrian attempts to mire the visit in controversy with the timely issuing of the extradition notices on senior Lebanese officials. However, the real challenge is still to come. It will be his ability to defend Lebanon’s sovereign gains, which Syria, as demonstrated most recently in Washington and through various other diplomatic channels, is determined to overturn. They include UN Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701, and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, arguably the biggest prize of all. They are, for the time being, secure. Their perpetuity must be his priority.

The “Lebanonization” of Iraq
Tony Badran, December 22, 2009
Smoke billow following a blast close to the Justice Ministry in central Baghdad on October 25, 2009. (AFP/Sabah Arar)
Over the past few weeks, several important statements have come out of Iraq – both from Iraqi officials and top US commanders – regarding the recent bomb attacks in the country and their perpetrators. These statements paint a telling picture of the geopolitical situation in Iraq, which lies at the heart of Washington’s interests in the Gulf.
Nuri al-Maliki has pointed the finger at Syria for the attacks, and conventional wisdom suggests that the Iraqi prime minister has been alone in doing so, largely for electoral reasons. In fact, Maliki’s views are shared by many of his colleagues. For instance, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari recently told journalists at the Manama Dialogue that “[i]ntelligence confirms that Saddamist Baathists are working from Syrian soil and enjoy the support of [the Syrian] intelligence services.”
Similarly, Defense Minister Abdul Qader al-Ubeidi noted during a parliamentary hearing that there were “clear indications pointing to [involvement of] the Baath and Al-Qaeda, and to outside parties that financed [the operation].” The identity of these “outside parties” was made explicit by Major General Jihad al-Jaberi, the director of Iraq’s counter-explosives unit. Al-Jaberi claimed that the perpetrators – whom he identified as Baathists in cooperation with Al-Qaeda – received logistical support from Syria and financial support from Saudi Arabia. He noted that they used “standard ordnance that came from abroad… This requires money and very large support from Syria or Saudi Arabia.”
The details of the logistical support provided by Syria were further noted by Interior Minister Jawad Bolani. He told parliament that a suicide bomber who attacked the Foreign Ministry last August made a call to Syria before detonating his load, a detail revealed through his recovered SIM card.
More damning were the statements of Major General Hussein Kamal, the Interior Ministry's chief of intelligence and investigations. He claimed that Iraqi officials had suspicions that the August 19 and October 25 bombings were planned at a secret meeting held between Al-Qaeda in Iraq members and Iraqi Baathists in the Syrian city of Zabadani. The meeting – implicitly organized under the auspices of the Syrian regime – was to chart out a new strategy to target the Maliki government. This was also reflected in Zebari’s comment on how “talking about these groups as mere volunteers is inaccurate, for they are experts with political objectives.”
So, the political background and nature of the attacks are well understood across the Iraqi government. Adding credibility to this reading were the remarkable statements by the top US commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno. Not only did Odierno identify the political purpose of the attacks, linking them to the parliamentary elections early next year; not only did he acknowledge that there was “movement of fighters or explosives coming from Syria”; he also stated that over the last year or so, Al-Qaeda and what he termed “some of the Sunni rejectionist groups” had “started to work together [and to] coalesce at the local level,” so that the difference between them was often a question of “semantics.” Al-Qaeda and Baathists are “both involved,” Odierno noted; “they are coordinating at the local level.”
The commander of US Central Command, General David Petraeus, added to Odierno’s remarks in an interview with the Al-Arabiya satellite channel a few days ago. For the first time, Petraeus stated that Saddam Hussein’s former henchman, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, was “living freely in Syria.” He also pointed to the campaign that Duri and Muhammad Younis Ahmad, another Baathist figure (and a protégé of the Syrians) who is wanted by Baghdad, were launching under Syrian auspices. “They are now allowed to openly call for the toppling of the government of Iraq,” Petraeus observed.
These powerful statements by Iraqi and US officials ought to force us to reconfigure our entire thinking about so-called “non-state actors” and their behavior in Iraq, as well as on how to approach counterinsurgency there. Clearly, those killing Iraqis are doing so in conjunction with, and under the patronage of, outside states working to shape political outcomes through violence. In other words, this violence is mainly regime-driven.
Iraq has become a playing field for regional rivalries, and the Iraqis are the ones today paying the heaviest price. Iran has spent years expanding its powers in Iraq, disapproves of Maliki’s independence, and seeks to cut him down to size. Syria is striving to use its clients to carve out a political role for itself on the Iraqi scene. And Saudi Arabia, eager to contain Iran on its doorsteps in Iraq and Yemen, and fearing the consolidation of a Shia-dominated order in Iraq, has found parallel interests with Syria.
As the United States, through its ongoing withdrawal, creates the perception of a growing vacuum, regional states are stepping in to grab a piece of the Iraqi pie. The lack of public attention paid in the US to the statements quoted earlier, and their implications, affirms how far Iraq has dropped in the American national consciousness. This can only be to the detriment of America’s interests and to those of its Iraqi ally.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow with the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

UNIFIL vehicles vandalized in southern attacks
/Daily Star staff/Tuesday, December 22, 2009
BEIRUT: Several vehicles belonging to civilian staff of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were vandalized in the early hours of Monday morning in the southern port of Tyre, the National News Agency reported. The Lebanese Army released a statement saying that six assailants had been apprehended, five of whom were underage and one mentally handicapped. The group apparently admitted to damaging the vehicles for “childish reasons.” An investigation was launched on Monday into the cause of the damage, according to UNIFIL’s deputy spokesman, Andrea Tenenti. “For the moment we are just investigating, but the investigation is mainly being handled by the Lebanese authorities,” Tenenti told The Daily Star. “We are trying to check out what happened. The only thing that was damaged was the tires,” he added. Tenenti confirmed that at least seven vehicles were involved in the incident.
“That is why an investigation was started,” he said. “It was found out between last night and this morning, so it looks like it was done then.”
The army confirmed that the suspects were being transferred to a special authority to deal with legal measures, given that all six are legally classed as juveniles. – The Daily Star

Cabinet's 1st Meeting: Wrangling between Hariri, Aridi, Bassil, Nahhas
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri sat at the Cabinet table as ministers of Lebanon's new unity government held their inaugural meeting.
The historic Cabinet session, which took place at the presidential palace in Baabda, lasted around four hours. Information Minister Tareq Mitri said following the meeting that Cabinet condemned Monday's shooting attack against a Syrian bus in which one Syrian citizen was killed. Local media on Tuesday said bickering took place at Cabinet – one between Hariri and Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi, and another between Hariri and ministers Jebran Bassil and Sharbel Nahhas. The first quarrel was over the powers of the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) and the extension given to a contractor company tasked with projects at Rafik Hariri International Airport.
They said Aridi presented documents that proved CDR neglect, demanding the Council's hands off infrastructure schemes.
Hariri, according to Al-Akhbar daily, rejected Aridi's criticism or clipping CDR powers.
"I will not accept to relinquish the powers of the Council," al-Akhbar quoted Hariri as telling ministers.
It said Suleiman stepped in when the argument heated up between Hariri and Aridi, suggesting postponing the debate on this issue until a bilateral meeting between the two men to discuss the misunderstanding. Hariri, however, turned down Suleiman's offer, prompting the President to stand beside the premier, al-Akhbar said.
The argument, however, ended in an extension of the contract with MEAS, provider of operational and maintenance services for facilities and systems of Beirut airport.
MEAS was retained by the Lebanese government represented by CDR Nov. 24, 1998 to operate and maintain the newly commissioned Rafik Hariri International Airport.
State Minister Wael Abu Faour downplayed the dispute. He said in remarks published Tuesday by daily Al-Safir there was "no political meaning behind the row."
"It does not spoil the friendship with Hariri," Abu Faour added. The second wrangling, according to Al-Akhbar, took place between Energy Minister Jebran Bassil and Telecommunications Minister Sharbel Nahhas over giving Finance Minister Raya al-Hasan power to extend a loan deal with the French government since it was not approved by Parliament and was not even discussed by Cabinet. The agreement seems to come in contradiction with the ministerial policy statement which approved privatization as means for the implementation of sector policies.
Hariri argued that this agreement "being a donation" does not need Parliament approval. The ministers answered back, saying the French grants are loans with an annual interest rate of 5 percent. An-Nahar newspaper, in turn, said Cabinet Minister Mohammed Fneish has also opened a discussion on privatization when he offered to extend the grace period approved by the Paris 3 Conference. "How come we are not informed about the issue in Cabinet?" Fneish asked. "We cannot accept privatization of the two telecommunications companies nor selling them," he complained. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 08:14

Baroud: Traffic Jam Crisis Caused by Inadequate Roads Not Police Performance
Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Tuesday said that "everyone is suffering from the choking traffic jam especially nowadays during the holidays season." aroud told LBC TV network: "Traffic jam crisis is caused by roads, and traffic police have nothing to do with it." "I take responsibility for any inadequacy by the interior ministry," added Baroud. Baroud added that Lebanon needs a new traffic plan, and it would not have had to face a crisis now if a Planning Ministry had been established during the sixties of last century. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 16:37

Kouchner: France has Often Been Disappointed in Syria
Naharnet/French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner hailed a visit to Syria by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, uncovering a similar trip by the Lebanese premier to Paris in the coming few days.
Kouchner believed Lebanon has achieved "progress," citing parliamentary elections, establishment of a national unity government and Hariri's visit to Damascus. Asked about Hariri's outcome of his visit to Syria, Kouchner commented: "Parties better talk to each other rather than fight each other." He lauded Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's initiative toward Hariri, saying: "I hope I am not mistaken for we have often been disappointed in this country (Syria) in particular." Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 10:02

Sfeir: Lebanese Still Seeking Jobs Abroad
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir warned Tuesday that Lebanese were still seeking jobs abroad. "We have been passing through difficult times since the seventies," Sfeir told a visiting delegation from Caritas. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 12:08

Hizbullah: Hariri's Damascus Visit Put Things Back on Right Track
Naharnet/Hizbullah on Tuesday hailed a visit by Prime Minister Saad Hariri to Syria, saying it is a 'step in the right direction." The visit "puts things back on the right track," Hizbullah said in a statement released Tuesday. It expressed hope that the trip would "contribute to strengthen the Arab stance in the face of threats of the Zionist enemy." Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 10:35

Jumblat: Hariri's Visit to Damascus Helps in Surpassing Previous 'Black Phase'
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat stressed that the visit of PM Saad Hariri to Syria was very important in the course of restoring Lebanese-Syrian relations back to what the Taef Accord stated -- "which was a product of Syrian-Saudi agreement." "With the breakthrough in Arab-Arab relations, especially in Syrian-Saudi relations after Kuwait's summit, Lebanon has to benefit till the maximum from the atmospheres of Arab understanding and rapprochement," added Jumblat in his Al Anbaa weekly article to be published Tuesday.
Jumblat stressed that Lebanon and Syria had given an example on the means of facing Israeli occupation through their common sacrifices "written in martyrs' blood.""Surpassing the traces of the black period in relations between the two countries -- which went beyond all limits due to the high tension that marked it -- is the responsibility of the Lebanese and Syrian leaders equally, and PM Saad Hariri's visit to Damascus is in this direction and helps a lot in fulfilling this goal," added Jumblat. "The issue of assassinations is in international tribunal's charge and should not be a reason to disrupt Lebanese-Syrian relations," concluded the Druze leader. Beirut, 21 Dec 09, 20:40

Why minarets shouldn't matter
By The Daily Star
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Editorial
A key event on the “clash of civilizations” front this year was Switzerland’s referendum on building minarets, which was voted down in November. People here have complained about European discrimination, and in today’s issue, The Daily Star is publishing a Western reply, in the form of a complaint about our behavior, namely our intolerance.
Tolerance and discrimination are important issues, but we shouldn’t focus on the building of a mosque, or the raising of a church steeple. And moving the debate further back in history diverts us from the immediate context, and why mosques and minarets are being built in Switzerland. Over the past 50 years or so (or even longer), Muslim communities have been growing and coalescing in Western countries. During this period, Western countries exploited the resources of countries in the Middle East and wider Islamic world. The decades-long stranglehold on the oil industry has led to a fairer order, but the massive profits of oil companies haven’t receded. There’s the Western-generated arms trade, which affects countries of the south in general. Presumably, some of the money generated by these practices ended up in countries like Switzerland.In return, what have Switzerland and the West done in return? There’s development assistance, but also massive defects, such as the billions of dollars wasted in Iraq, money that was supposed to help the country rebuild.For the most part, Western countries have been in cahoots with the regimes of our region, and resentment builds up, compounded by our inefficient states, which end up exporting their people to the West.
Getting into controversies such as “minaret versus steeple” is a dangerous course, due to the asymmetric nature of the struggle. It’s not played out with ICBM, tanks and F-15s; all you need are a few angry young men, both at local regimes and the West. Whether people are complaining about Sykes-Picot, or the IMF, the West has had a spotty record in robustly promoting development in this part of the world, and the more aggressive aspects – like blind support for Israel, the arms trade, and bombing of civilian areas – convince people here that they’re the ones being threatened. When Westerners feel threatened by Islam and its minarets, they should remember two things. One is the comment a few years ago by the dean of European foreign policy, Javier Solana, who said it was no longer a case of Muslims being in the building, or the stairwell – they were now in the living room [of Europe]. Thus, how we actually interact with each other, in what is becoming our global living room, is of paramount importance, and not who is building a mosque or a church down the street. When the geopolitical relationship is healthy, no one will raise a fuss when such events take place.

The next war will be in Gaza, once again
By Bruce Riedel
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The next Middle East war will probably be a reprieve of the last, a second war in Gaza, only this time even more violent and destabilizing for the entire region. The first Gaza war last January left unfinished business and a humanitarian catastrophe. The next war may be started by an Al-Qaeda-inspired Gazan faction of the global Islamic jihad against the wishes of Hamas, with Al-Qaeda one of the major beneficiaries.
Since Hamas staged its takeover in Gaza in 2007, it has faced opposition from even more radical Islamists who oppose any ceasefire with Israel and want to engage in jihad immediately. These groups are getting stronger, feeding on the frustration of a million and a half Gazans who see their lives becoming ever more grim and have little or no hope of a better future. The jihadists promise a better life through martyrdom. They know they cannot defeat Israel yet but they prefer to fight rather than live under siege. Some have now openly associated themselves with Al-Qaeda and its global Islamic jihadist message.
It is safe to assume that contacts are being developed between these jihadists in Gaza and the Al-Qaeda core that is based in Pakistan. We know that some volunteers from the global jihad have gone to Gaza; at least one Saudi was killed in the first war. Al-Qaeda gloried in the first Gaza war as a propaganda triumph because it demonstrated to the Islamic world that the new American president-elect, Barack Obama, was unwilling to criticize Israel when it attacked Palestinians. For Osama bin Laden this was not change you can believe in but the same old Zionist-Crusader alliance.
Another Gaza war would be another gift to Al-Qaeda. It could start this way. A jihadist cell ambushes an Israeli military patrol on the border of Gaza, killing several and capturing one or two. By the time the ambush takes place, let’s say on the anniversary of 9/11 in September 2010, Hamas will have already done a huge prisoner deal with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, exchanging dozens of Hamas killers for Gilad Shalit, who was captured in a similar ambush in 2006.
The Israeli government will have to respond forcefully, especially given intense Israeli public criticism over the Shalit deal. Many in the Israeli armed forces and in the Shabak (Internal Security Service) will urge the prime minister to finish the job begun in January 2009. Air power will be accompanied by major ground incursions to cut off the Gaza Strip from Egypt, surround major population centers and break Hamas’ hold on Gazans. It may take a month or more.
Hamas will try to avoid the war by cracking down on the jihadist Al-Qaeda sympathizers. But it cannot return captured Israeli soldiers for nothing, especially after the Shalit deal. Whether Hamas wants a war or not, the jihadists will have outmaneuvered it. Many in the military wing of Hamas will probably want to fight, having spent the last year and a half preparing for another round of conflict.
The imagery of war, captured by Al-Jazeerah and by Al-Sahab (Al-Qaeda’s media arm), will be awful. Even with the greatest care, war in an urban arena means terrible suffering for the innocent. In the first Gaza war, Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Zawahiri broadcast repeated messages calling Obama a Zionist warlord, ridiculing Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for doing nothing to help Hamas, and Saudi Arabia for being a closet ally of Israel. Expect more of the same. A bloody Israeli invasion of Gaza resisted by jihadist martyrs would radicalize the Islamic world and send new recruits and new funds to the global jihad.
Should Israel succeed in breaking Hamas in the second round, a big if, what will follow? Fatah and the Palestinian Authority are not ready to take over Gaza alone – certainly not when propped up by Israeli bayonets. The international community, led by Obama, will have to decide if it is prepared to take on the job of governing Gaza and providing the economic aid to get the territory back on its feet.
This will mean troops: NATO probably, with a United Nations mandate; perhaps some Egyptians and Jordanians, too. With NATO’s attention focused on Afghanistan, it will be hard to find the numbers needed for a risky mission that could turn ugly, with both sides blaming the peacekeepers for any mistakes. Of course, the alternative would be a third round of fighting in Gaza.
**Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He advised Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama on the Middle East and South Asia from the National Security Council. He is the author of “The Search for Al-Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology and Future.” This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter that deals with Middle Eastern and Islamic issues.

LEBANON: Rapprochement with Syria bittersweet for 'Cedar' revolutionaries
December 21, 2009 | 12:16 pm
It is said that politics make strange bedfellows, and none are stranger than Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Syrian President Bashar Assad, the man Hariri has accused of killing his father. This weekend, Hariri made his first trip to Damascus since 2005, when his father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri, and 21 others were killed by a massive car bomb in downtown Beirut. The Hariri family has repeatedly blamed the killing on Syria, but Damascus denies involvement. And things between Lebanon and Syria are far from being resolved. Early today, unknown assailants opened fire on a bus of Syrian workers passing through northern Lebanon, killing a 17-year-old Syrian laborer. Such attacks were common after Hariri's assassination, when anti-Syrian sentiment was running high, although officials have not publicly speculated about a possible motive.
While rapprochement was inevitable, Hariri was reserved in his statements to the press Sunday, emphasizing that "Syria and Lebanon will not benefit from negative perceptions."
The prime minister's visit to Damascus followed a series of diplomatic overtures over the past year, including the exchange of embassies between Lebanon and Syria and several high-level visits. Hariri's allies have publicly praised the prime minister for his "positive attitude," but the visit comes as a disappointment for many supporters who remember the heady days of the so-called "Cedar Revolution" following Rafik Hariri's assassination, when tiny Lebanon appeared to have beaten back Goliath Syria.
Some remember this time as a joyous outpouring of patriotism. For others, it was a dark period of rabid nationalism and bitter polarization.
The weeks following Hariri's death saw massive demonstrations in Lebanon both for and against Syria, eventually leading to the withdrawal of the Syrian army and the launch of a U.N.-backed international tribunal to investigate Hariri's killing. It was against this background that Saad took his place as the new head of Lebanon's most powerful political dynasty and leader of the anti-Syrian March 14 Coalition, united under the banner of "freedom, sovereignty and independence." But circumstances have changed over the past five years, even if Lebanon's essential sectarian nature has not, and Hariri the son appears to be coming to terms with the political realities of running his father's country.
Today, the March 14 Coalition is plagued by internal bickering and rumors of splits. Enthusiasm for the tribunal is waning among Western leaders who are eager to include Syria in wider regional solutions, and even Syria's former die-hard enemies in Lebanon, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Gen. Michael Aoun, have reconciled with Damascus in the interest of their own political longevity. "On the one hand, many of the same internal power dynamics are in place," wrote Elias Muhanna, a Harvard researcher and author of the Lebanese political blog Qifa Nabki, " ... and Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are the dominant foreign players on the Lebanese stage...On the other hand, there is little doubt that the landscape has been altered in fundamental ways."

 

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 23/09

Bible Reading of the day
Psalm 112/Praise Yah!* Blessed is the man who fears Yahweh, who delights greatly in his commandments. His seed will be mighty in the land. The generation of the upright will be blessed. Wealth and riches are in his house. His righteousness endures forever. Light dawns in the darkness for the upright, gracious, merciful, and righteous. It is well with the man who deals graciously and lends. He will maintain his cause in judgment.  For he will never be shaken. The righteous will be remembered forever.  He will not be afraid of evil news. His heart is steadfast, trusting in Yahweh. His heart is established. He will not be afraid in the end when he sees his adversaries. He has dispersed, he has given to the poor. His righteousness endures forever. His horn will be exalted with honor. The wicked will see it, and be grieved. He shall gnash with his teeth, and melt away. The desire of the wicked will perish.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The “Lebanonization” of Iraq/By: Tony Badran/December 22/09
The real test is to come/Now Lebanon/December 22/09
LEBANON: Rapprochement with Syria bittersweet for 'Cedar' revolutionaries/December 22/09
Why minarets shouldn’t matter/The Daily Star/December 22/09
The next war will be in Gaza, once again/By Bruce Riedel/December 22/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 22/09
Gemayel says Kataeb MPs will appeal Article 6 of Ministerial Statement/Now Lebanon
Mashnouq: Lebanese-Syrian reconciliation, a prolongation of the Saudi-Syrian summit/Future Web site
Shamoun: there is a party that aims at weakening the state/Future Web site
Fatfat: For the Lebanese-Syrian new approach to be interpreted by practical deeds/Future Web site
Cabinet's 1st Meeting: Wrangling between Hariri, Aridi, Bassil, Nahhas/Naharnet
Baroud: Traffic Jam Crisis Caused by Inadequate Roads Not Police Performance/Naharnet
NYT: Hariri's Damascus Visit a 'Measure of Renewed Influence over Lebanon/Naharnet
Kouchner: France has Often Been Disappointed in Syria/Naharnet
Geagea: Border Demarcation Starting from the North Not Encouraging Sign by Syria/Naharnet
Sfeir: Lebanese Still Seeking Jobs Abroad/Naharnet
Assad-Hariri Agree to Start Border Demarcation from North to South/Naharnet
Hizbullah: Hariri's Damascus Visit Put Things Back on Right Track/Naharnet
Jumblat: Hariri's Visit to Damascus Helps in Surpassing Previous 'Black Phase'/Naharnet
Syrian Citizen Killed as Assailants Shoot at Bus in Deir Emar/Naharnet
Mottaki from Beirut: Lebanon Proved It Doesn't Need Foreign Intervention in Its Affairs/Naharnet
Syria Demands Roed-Larsen's Dismissal, Says it Implemented 1559/Naharnet
Hariri Briefs Cabinet on Results of his Talks with Assad/Naharnet
Assailants Tear Tires of UNIFIL Employee Vehicles in Tyre/Naharnet
Franjieh Hails Hariri's 'Bold' Move to Visit Damascus/Naharnet
Syria: Remove UN Representative Terje Roed-Larsen/MEMRI (blog)
Hariri visit seen as turning point in Lebanon-Syria ties/AFP
Ehud Barak: Israel's target is Lebanon, Not Hezbollah/Pravda
Serbian Peacekeepers could be sent to Lebanon/Agencies
The Grace of Damascus/Middle East Online
Hariri visit 'turning point in Syria ties'/Gulf Daily News
Iran flexes muscles in Iraq border dispute/Reuters
Springtime for Syria/Globe and Mail
Iranian FM praises Lebanon's rejection of foreign interference/Xinhua
UN ends search for survivors after ship sinks near Lebanon/CNN
Pope’s would-be assassin to be freed in January: lawyer/AFP
Beirut ranks 52nd globally in house prices, 53rd in rental yield/Daily Star
US Ambassador Sison visits YWCA to praise new staff/Daily Star
UNIFIL vehicles vandalized in southern attacks/Daily Star
Migrant domestic workers left unprotected despite reforms
Spanish army’s defense chief visits UNIFIL troops/Daily Star
Rescuers find six more bodies from shipwreck/AFP
 

Gemayel says Kataeb MPs will appeal Article 6 of Ministerial Statement
December 22, 2009 /Now Lebanon
During a press conference in Saifi on Tuesday, Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel said that his party’s MPs will appeal Article 6 of the Ministerial Statement—which pertains to Hezbollah and its arms—to the Constitutional Council. “The appeal aims at ruling [Article 6] unconstitutional,” he said, adding the Constitutional Council has the right to do so. Gemayel said that a “huge portion” of the Lebanese population opposes Article 6, which, he said, makes it worthwhile to challenge its constitutionality. He also said that the Kataeb cannot betray its principles and added that the “initiative” over Article 6 aims to encourage all the parties to resort to constitutional institutions. Gemayel also said that his MP’s initiative strengthens the role of the constitutional, administrative and judicial institutions and state building, which, he said, are all his party’s goals. He added that if the constitutional institutions carry out their roles in “resolving pointless disputes,” then clashes, like those which occurred during May 2008, would not be resolved on the “streets.” Gemayel also spoke about his party’s relations with Hezbollah, saying dialogue with all the Lebanese parties is “necessary.” He added that the Kataeb initiative does not obstruct rapprochement and reconciliation, but rather encourages them.
Gemayel also said that he is not considering a visit to Syria. -NOW Lebanon

The real test is to come
December 21, 2009
Now Lebanon
The road to Damascus was paved with dilemmas for Prime Minister Saad Hariri, both on a national and a personal level. Not only was the Syrian regime instrumental, with Saudi Arabia, in shaping the most recent Lebanese cabinet line-up, one that effectively watered down the March 14 coalition’s victory in the summer elections, it is the main suspect in Hariri’s father’s murder along with a string of subsequent killings and bombings. The visit, allegedly one of the consequences of the Syria-Saudi entente, was always going to be fraught.
Many Lebanese, almost exclusively those who support the ideals of the March 14 movement, will have been uncomfortable by the TV images beamed out of Damascus of Hariri kissing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. They will no doubt see the trip as a setback in Lebanon’s bid to consolidate its sovereignty over its territory and reinforce its democratic credentials. They will have resigned themselves to the fact that Syria still has a role in shaping Lebanese affairs through a loyal, not to mention well-armed, opposition, that it still runs guerrilla training camps in parts of the Bekaa and the southern approaches to Beirut, and that it has armed – or tolerated the rearmament of – Hezbollah through its notoriously porous border.
It’s not ideal; then again it never was. But, as the lyrics to the song remind us, it ain’t what you do but the way that you do it, and Hariri sought, successfully or not, to soften the impact of what many will have seen as the final act of capitulation by March 14 to nearly five years of Syrian pressure.
Firstly, his delegation flew rather than drove to Syria. This was important to stress its geographical “separation” from Lebanon. Secondly, he framed the visit in the context of his government’s ministerial policy statement and as part of a series of regional trips intended to, as he put it, “reunite Arab states and unify Arab positions on regional challenges.” In that way, he underlined that Lebanon’s relations with Syria would not be shaped by his family’s personal beef with the Baathist regime. In short, Hariri was styling himself as an Arab leader doing what an Arab leaders does. Privately, he might admit that there are sacrifices to be made for Lebanon’s stability, but being a lackey, like many of his predecessors were, is not one of them.
If we look at the glass half full, Hariri has passed his first test as prime minister, despite Syrian attempts to mire the visit in controversy with the timely issuing of the extradition notices on senior Lebanese officials. However, the real challenge is still to come. It will be his ability to defend Lebanon’s sovereign gains, which Syria, as demonstrated most recently in Washington and through various other diplomatic channels, is determined to overturn. They include UN Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701, and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, arguably the biggest prize of all. They are, for the time being, secure. Their perpetuity must be his priority.

The “Lebanonization” of Iraq
Tony Badran, December 22, 2009
Smoke billow following a blast close to the Justice Ministry in central Baghdad on October 25, 2009. (AFP/Sabah Arar)
Over the past few weeks, several important statements have come out of Iraq – both from Iraqi officials and top US commanders – regarding the recent bomb attacks in the country and their perpetrators. These statements paint a telling picture of the geopolitical situation in Iraq, which lies at the heart of Washington’s interests in the Gulf.
Nuri al-Maliki has pointed the finger at Syria for the attacks, and conventional wisdom suggests that the Iraqi prime minister has been alone in doing so, largely for electoral reasons. In fact, Maliki’s views are shared by many of his colleagues. For instance, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari recently told journalists at the Manama Dialogue that “[i]ntelligence confirms that Saddamist Baathists are working from Syrian soil and enjoy the support of [the Syrian] intelligence services.”
Similarly, Defense Minister Abdul Qader al-Ubeidi noted during a parliamentary hearing that there were “clear indications pointing to [involvement of] the Baath and Al-Qaeda, and to outside parties that financed [the operation].” The identity of these “outside parties” was made explicit by Major General Jihad al-Jaberi, the director of Iraq’s counter-explosives unit. Al-Jaberi claimed that the perpetrators – whom he identified as Baathists in cooperation with Al-Qaeda – received logistical support from Syria and financial support from Saudi Arabia. He noted that they used “standard ordnance that came from abroad… This requires money and very large support from Syria or Saudi Arabia.”
The details of the logistical support provided by Syria were further noted by Interior Minister Jawad Bolani. He told parliament that a suicide bomber who attacked the Foreign Ministry last August made a call to Syria before detonating his load, a detail revealed through his recovered SIM card.
More damning were the statements of Major General Hussein Kamal, the Interior Ministry's chief of intelligence and investigations. He claimed that Iraqi officials had suspicions that the August 19 and October 25 bombings were planned at a secret meeting held between Al-Qaeda in Iraq members and Iraqi Baathists in the Syrian city of Zabadani. The meeting – implicitly organized under the auspices of the Syrian regime – was to chart out a new strategy to target the Maliki government. This was also reflected in Zebari’s comment on how “talking about these groups as mere volunteers is inaccurate, for they are experts with political objectives.”
So, the political background and nature of the attacks are well understood across the Iraqi government. Adding credibility to this reading were the remarkable statements by the top US commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno. Not only did Odierno identify the political purpose of the attacks, linking them to the parliamentary elections early next year; not only did he acknowledge that there was “movement of fighters or explosives coming from Syria”; he also stated that over the last year or so, Al-Qaeda and what he termed “some of the Sunni rejectionist groups” had “started to work together [and to] coalesce at the local level,” so that the difference between them was often a question of “semantics.” Al-Qaeda and Baathists are “both involved,” Odierno noted; “they are coordinating at the local level.”
The commander of US Central Command, General David Petraeus, added to Odierno’s remarks in an interview with the Al-Arabiya satellite channel a few days ago. For the first time, Petraeus stated that Saddam Hussein’s former henchman, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, was “living freely in Syria.” He also pointed to the campaign that Duri and Muhammad Younis Ahmad, another Baathist figure (and a protégé of the Syrians) who is wanted by Baghdad, were launching under Syrian auspices. “They are now allowed to openly call for the toppling of the government of Iraq,” Petraeus observed.
These powerful statements by Iraqi and US officials ought to force us to reconfigure our entire thinking about so-called “non-state actors” and their behavior in Iraq, as well as on how to approach counterinsurgency there. Clearly, those killing Iraqis are doing so in conjunction with, and under the patronage of, outside states working to shape political outcomes through violence. In other words, this violence is mainly regime-driven.
Iraq has become a playing field for regional rivalries, and the Iraqis are the ones today paying the heaviest price. Iran has spent years expanding its powers in Iraq, disapproves of Maliki’s independence, and seeks to cut him down to size. Syria is striving to use its clients to carve out a political role for itself on the Iraqi scene. And Saudi Arabia, eager to contain Iran on its doorsteps in Iraq and Yemen, and fearing the consolidation of a Shia-dominated order in Iraq, has found parallel interests with Syria.
As the United States, through its ongoing withdrawal, creates the perception of a growing vacuum, regional states are stepping in to grab a piece of the Iraqi pie. The lack of public attention paid in the US to the statements quoted earlier, and their implications, affirms how far Iraq has dropped in the American national consciousness. This can only be to the detriment of America’s interests and to those of its Iraqi ally.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow with the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

UNIFIL vehicles vandalized in southern attacks
/Daily Star staff/Tuesday, December 22, 2009
BEIRUT: Several vehicles belonging to civilian staff of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were vandalized in the early hours of Monday morning in the southern port of Tyre, the National News Agency reported. The Lebanese Army released a statement saying that six assailants had been apprehended, five of whom were underage and one mentally handicapped. The group apparently admitted to damaging the vehicles for “childish reasons.” An investigation was launched on Monday into the cause of the damage, according to UNIFIL’s deputy spokesman, Andrea Tenenti. “For the moment we are just investigating, but the investigation is mainly being handled by the Lebanese authorities,” Tenenti told The Daily Star. “We are trying to check out what happened. The only thing that was damaged was the tires,” he added. Tenenti confirmed that at least seven vehicles were involved in the incident.
“That is why an investigation was started,” he said. “It was found out between last night and this morning, so it looks like it was done then.”
The army confirmed that the suspects were being transferred to a special authority to deal with legal measures, given that all six are legally classed as juveniles. – The Daily Star

Cabinet's 1st Meeting: Wrangling between Hariri, Aridi, Bassil, Nahhas
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri sat at the Cabinet table as ministers of Lebanon's new unity government held their inaugural meeting.
The historic Cabinet session, which took place at the presidential palace in Baabda, lasted around four hours. Information Minister Tareq Mitri said following the meeting that Cabinet condemned Monday's shooting attack against a Syrian bus in which one Syrian citizen was killed. Local media on Tuesday said bickering took place at Cabinet – one between Hariri and Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi, and another between Hariri and ministers Jebran Bassil and Sharbel Nahhas. The first quarrel was over the powers of the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) and the extension given to a contractor company tasked with projects at Rafik Hariri International Airport.
They said Aridi presented documents that proved CDR neglect, demanding the Council's hands off infrastructure schemes.
Hariri, according to Al-Akhbar daily, rejected Aridi's criticism or clipping CDR powers.
"I will not accept to relinquish the powers of the Council," al-Akhbar quoted Hariri as telling ministers.
It said Suleiman stepped in when the argument heated up between Hariri and Aridi, suggesting postponing the debate on this issue until a bilateral meeting between the two men to discuss the misunderstanding. Hariri, however, turned down Suleiman's offer, prompting the President to stand beside the premier, al-Akhbar said.
The argument, however, ended in an extension of the contract with MEAS, provider of operational and maintenance services for facilities and systems of Beirut airport.
MEAS was retained by the Lebanese government represented by CDR Nov. 24, 1998 to operate and maintain the newly commissioned Rafik Hariri International Airport.
State Minister Wael Abu Faour downplayed the dispute. He said in remarks published Tuesday by daily Al-Safir there was "no political meaning behind the row."
"It does not spoil the friendship with Hariri," Abu Faour added. The second wrangling, according to Al-Akhbar, took place between Energy Minister Jebran Bassil and Telecommunications Minister Sharbel Nahhas over giving Finance Minister Raya al-Hasan power to extend a loan deal with the French government since it was not approved by Parliament and was not even discussed by Cabinet. The agreement seems to come in contradiction with the ministerial policy statement which approved privatization as means for the implementation of sector policies.
Hariri argued that this agreement "being a donation" does not need Parliament approval. The ministers answered back, saying the French grants are loans with an annual interest rate of 5 percent. An-Nahar newspaper, in turn, said Cabinet Minister Mohammed Fneish has also opened a discussion on privatization when he offered to extend the grace period approved by the Paris 3 Conference. "How come we are not informed about the issue in Cabinet?" Fneish asked. "We cannot accept privatization of the two telecommunications companies nor selling them," he complained. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 08:14

Baroud: Traffic Jam Crisis Caused by Inadequate Roads Not Police Performance
Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Tuesday said that "everyone is suffering from the choking traffic jam especially nowadays during the holidays season." aroud told LBC TV network: "Traffic jam crisis is caused by roads, and traffic police have nothing to do with it." "I take responsibility for any inadequacy by the interior ministry," added Baroud. Baroud added that Lebanon needs a new traffic plan, and it would not have had to face a crisis now if a Planning Ministry had been established during the sixties of last century. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 16:37

Kouchner: France has Often Been Disappointed in Syria
Naharnet/French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner hailed a visit to Syria by Prime Minister Saad Hariri, uncovering a similar trip by the Lebanese premier to Paris in the coming few days.
Kouchner believed Lebanon has achieved "progress," citing parliamentary elections, establishment of a national unity government and Hariri's visit to Damascus. Asked about Hariri's outcome of his visit to Syria, Kouchner commented: "Parties better talk to each other rather than fight each other." He lauded Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's initiative toward Hariri, saying: "I hope I am not mistaken for we have often been disappointed in this country (Syria) in particular." Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 10:02

Sfeir: Lebanese Still Seeking Jobs Abroad
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir warned Tuesday that Lebanese were still seeking jobs abroad. "We have been passing through difficult times since the seventies," Sfeir told a visiting delegation from Caritas. Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 12:08

Hizbullah: Hariri's Damascus Visit Put Things Back on Right Track
Naharnet/Hizbullah on Tuesday hailed a visit by Prime Minister Saad Hariri to Syria, saying it is a 'step in the right direction." The visit "puts things back on the right track," Hizbullah said in a statement released Tuesday. It expressed hope that the trip would "contribute to strengthen the Arab stance in the face of threats of the Zionist enemy." Beirut, 22 Dec 09, 10:35

Jumblat: Hariri's Visit to Damascus Helps in Surpassing Previous 'Black Phase'
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat stressed that the visit of PM Saad Hariri to Syria was very important in the course of restoring Lebanese-Syrian relations back to what the Taef Accord stated -- "which was a product of Syrian-Saudi agreement." "With the breakthrough in Arab-Arab relations, especially in Syrian-Saudi relations after Kuwait's summit, Lebanon has to benefit till the maximum from the atmospheres of Arab understanding and rapprochement," added Jumblat in his Al Anbaa weekly article to be published Tuesday.
Jumblat stressed that Lebanon and Syria had given an example on the means of facing Israeli occupation through their common sacrifices "written in martyrs' blood.""Surpassing the traces of the black period in relations between the two countries -- which went beyond all limits due to the high tension that marked it -- is the responsibility of the Lebanese and Syrian leaders equally, and PM Saad Hariri's visit to Damascus is in this direction and helps a lot in fulfilling this goal," added Jumblat. "The issue of assassinations is in international tribunal's charge and should not be a reason to disrupt Lebanese-Syrian relations," concluded the Druze leader. Beirut, 21 Dec 09, 20:40

Why minarets shouldn't matter
By The Daily Star
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Editorial
A key event on the “clash of civilizations” front this year was Switzerland’s referendum on building minarets, which was voted down in November. People here have complained about European discrimination, and in today’s issue, The Daily Star is publishing a Western reply, in the form of a complaint about our behavior, namely our intolerance.
Tolerance and discrimination are important issues, but we shouldn’t focus on the building of a mosque, or the raising of a church steeple. And moving the debate further back in history diverts us from the immediate context, and why mosques and minarets are being built in Switzerland. Over the past 50 years or so (or even longer), Muslim communities have been growing and coalescing in Western countries. During this period, Western countries exploited the resources of countries in the Middle East and wider Islamic world. The decades-long stranglehold on the oil industry has led to a fairer order, but the massive profits of oil companies haven’t receded. There’s the Western-generated arms trade, which affects countries of the south in general. Presumably, some of the money generated by these practices ended up in countries like Switzerland.In return, what have Switzerland and the West done in return? There’s development assistance, but also massive defects, such as the billions of dollars wasted in Iraq, money that was supposed to help the country rebuild.For the most part, Western countries have been in cahoots with the regimes of our region, and resentment builds up, compounded by our inefficient states, which end up exporting their people to the West.
Getting into controversies such as “minaret versus steeple” is a dangerous course, due to the asymmetric nature of the struggle. It’s not played out with ICBM, tanks and F-15s; all you need are a few angry young men, both at local regimes and the West. Whether people are complaining about Sykes-Picot, or the IMF, the West has had a spotty record in robustly promoting development in this part of the world, and the more aggressive aspects – like blind support for Israel, the arms trade, and bombing of civilian areas – convince people here that they’re the ones being threatened. When Westerners feel threatened by Islam and its minarets, they should remember two things. One is the comment a few years ago by the dean of European foreign policy, Javier Solana, who said it was no longer a case of Muslims being in the building, or the stairwell – they were now in the living room [of Europe]. Thus, how we actually interact with each other, in what is becoming our global living room, is of paramount importance, and not who is building a mosque or a church down the street. When the geopolitical relationship is healthy, no one will raise a fuss when such events take place.

The next war will be in Gaza, once again
By Bruce Riedel
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The next Middle East war will probably be a reprieve of the last, a second war in Gaza, only this time even more violent and destabilizing for the entire region. The first Gaza war last January left unfinished business and a humanitarian catastrophe. The next war may be started by an Al-Qaeda-inspired Gazan faction of the global Islamic jihad against the wishes of Hamas, with Al-Qaeda one of the major beneficiaries.
Since Hamas staged its takeover in Gaza in 2007, it has faced opposition from even more radical Islamists who oppose any ceasefire with Israel and want to engage in jihad immediately. These groups are getting stronger, feeding on the frustration of a million and a half Gazans who see their lives becoming ever more grim and have little or no hope of a better future. The jihadists promise a better life through martyrdom. They know they cannot defeat Israel yet but they prefer to fight rather than live under siege. Some have now openly associated themselves with Al-Qaeda and its global Islamic jihadist message.
It is safe to assume that contacts are being developed between these jihadists in Gaza and the Al-Qaeda core that is based in Pakistan. We know that some volunteers from the global jihad have gone to Gaza; at least one Saudi was killed in the first war. Al-Qaeda gloried in the first Gaza war as a propaganda triumph because it demonstrated to the Islamic world that the new American president-elect, Barack Obama, was unwilling to criticize Israel when it attacked Palestinians. For Osama bin Laden this was not change you can believe in but the same old Zionist-Crusader alliance.
Another Gaza war would be another gift to Al-Qaeda. It could start this way. A jihadist cell ambushes an Israeli military patrol on the border of Gaza, killing several and capturing one or two. By the time the ambush takes place, let’s say on the anniversary of 9/11 in September 2010, Hamas will have already done a huge prisoner deal with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, exchanging dozens of Hamas killers for Gilad Shalit, who was captured in a similar ambush in 2006.
The Israeli government will have to respond forcefully, especially given intense Israeli public criticism over the Shalit deal. Many in the Israeli armed forces and in the Shabak (Internal Security Service) will urge the prime minister to finish the job begun in January 2009. Air power will be accompanied by major ground incursions to cut off the Gaza Strip from Egypt, surround major population centers and break Hamas’ hold on Gazans. It may take a month or more.
Hamas will try to avoid the war by cracking down on the jihadist Al-Qaeda sympathizers. But it cannot return captured Israeli soldiers for nothing, especially after the Shalit deal. Whether Hamas wants a war or not, the jihadists will have outmaneuvered it. Many in the military wing of Hamas will probably want to fight, having spent the last year and a half preparing for another round of conflict.
The imagery of war, captured by Al-Jazeerah and by Al-Sahab (Al-Qaeda’s media arm), will be awful. Even with the greatest care, war in an urban arena means terrible suffering for the innocent. In the first Gaza war, Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Zawahiri broadcast repeated messages calling Obama a Zionist warlord, ridiculing Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for doing nothing to help Hamas, and Saudi Arabia for being a closet ally of Israel. Expect more of the same. A bloody Israeli invasion of Gaza resisted by jihadist martyrs would radicalize the Islamic world and send new recruits and new funds to the global jihad.
Should Israel succeed in breaking Hamas in the second round, a big if, what will follow? Fatah and the Palestinian Authority are not ready to take over Gaza alone – certainly not when propped up by Israeli bayonets. The international community, led by Obama, will have to decide if it is prepared to take on the job of governing Gaza and providing the economic aid to get the territory back on its feet.
This will mean troops: NATO probably, with a United Nations mandate; perhaps some Egyptians and Jordanians, too. With NATO’s attention focused on Afghanistan, it will be hard to find the numbers needed for a risky mission that could turn ugly, with both sides blaming the peacekeepers for any mistakes. Of course, the alternative would be a third round of fighting in Gaza.
**Bruce Riedel is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He advised Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama on the Middle East and South Asia from the National Security Council. He is the author of “The Search for Al-Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology and Future.” This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter that deals with Middle Eastern and Islamic issues.

LEBANON: Rapprochement with Syria bittersweet for 'Cedar' revolutionaries
December 21, 2009 | 12:16 pm
It is said that politics make strange bedfellows, and none are stranger than Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Syrian President Bashar Assad, the man Hariri has accused of killing his father. This weekend, Hariri made his first trip to Damascus since 2005, when his father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri, and 21 others were killed by a massive car bomb in downtown Beirut. The Hariri family has repeatedly blamed the killing on Syria, but Damascus denies involvement. And things between Lebanon and Syria are far from being resolved. Early today, unknown assailants opened fire on a bus of Syrian workers passing through northern Lebanon, killing a 17-year-old Syrian laborer. Such attacks were common after Hariri's assassination, when anti-Syrian sentiment was running high, although officials have not publicly speculated about a possible motive.
While rapprochement was inevitable, Hariri was reserved in his statements to the press Sunday, emphasizing that "Syria and Lebanon will not benefit from negative perceptions."
The prime minister's visit to Damascus followed a series of diplomatic overtures over the past year, including the exchange of embassies between Lebanon and Syria and several high-level visits. Hariri's allies have publicly praised the prime minister for his "positive attitude," but the visit comes as a disappointment for many supporters who remember the heady days of the so-called "Cedar Revolution" following Rafik Hariri's assassination, when tiny Lebanon appeared to have beaten back Goliath Syria.
Some remember this time as a joyous outpouring of patriotism. For others, it was a dark period of rabid nationalism and bitter polarization.
The weeks following Hariri's death saw massive demonstrations in Lebanon both for and against Syria, eventually leading to the withdrawal of the Syrian army and the launch of a U.N.-backed international tribunal to investigate Hariri's killing. It was against this background that Saad took his place as the new head of Lebanon's most powerful political dynasty and leader of the anti-Syrian March 14 Coalition, united under the banner of "freedom, sovereignty and independence." But circumstances have changed over the past five years, even if Lebanon's essential sectarian nature has not, and Hariri the son appears to be coming to terms with the political realities of running his father's country.
Today, the March 14 Coalition is plagued by internal bickering and rumors of splits. Enthusiasm for the tribunal is waning among Western leaders who are eager to include Syria in wider regional solutions, and even Syria's former die-hard enemies in Lebanon, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Gen. Michael Aoun, have reconciled with Damascus in the interest of their own political longevity. "On the one hand, many of the same internal power dynamics are in place," wrote Elias Muhanna, a Harvard researcher and author of the Lebanese political blog Qifa Nabki, " ... and Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are the dominant foreign players on the Lebanese stage...On the other hand, there is little doubt that the landscape has been altered in fundamental ways."