LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 07/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 12:38-44. In the course of his teaching he said, "Beware of the scribes, who like to go around in long robes and accept greetings in the marketplaces, seats of honor in synagogues, and places of honor at banquets. They devour the houses of widows and, as a pretext, recite lengthy prayers. They will receive a very severe condemnation." He sat down opposite the treasury and observed how the crowd put money into the treasury. Many rich people put in large sums. A poor widow also came and put in two small coins worth a few cents. Calling his disciples to himself, he said to them, "Amen, I say to you, this poor widow put in more than all the other contributors to the treasury. For they have all contributed from their surplus wealth, but she, from her poverty, has contributed all she had, her whole livelihood."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports.
Q & A with New Saudi Envoy to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asseri- Asharq Alawsat 06/06/09
15 Hard Questions about the Cairo Speech.
By Walid Phares 06/06/09
New to Politics But Not to Loss-Washington Post 06/06/09
What If Hezbollah Wins?Atlantic Online 06/06/09
The Hizballah Dilemma. TIME - 06/06/09
From Brazil to Byblos, Lebanese diaspora pours in for vote-The National 06/06/09
Dissenting voices are heard in Hezbollah's backyard-GulfNews06/06/09
High stakes in Lebanon's election-Christian Science Monitor 06/06/09
Lebanon Vote Draws Expatriates' Interest-Wall Street Journal 06/06/09
Lebanon's elections will be a success if they lead to the reforms we need- The Daily Star 06/06/09
The end of the 'special' US-Israel relationship? Not just yet-By Shlomo Ben-Ami 06/06/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 06/09
1 Wounded in Election-Related Security Mishap in North-Naharnet
Hizbullah: Armed Group and Strong Political Force
-Naharnet
Major Parties in Parliamentary Elections
-Naharnet
LEBANON: As voters go to polls, many fears and a few hopes-Los Angeles Times
Obama kowtows to Damascus while Syria rigs Lebanese poll-DEBKA file
Facts and figures on Lebanon-The Associated Press
Hezbollah challenges pro-West camp in Lebanon vote-The Associated Press
Correction: Nuclear Agency-Syria-Iran story-The Associated Press
Head of Christian community says Lebanese entity is threatened-Monsters and Critics.com
Sfeir: Lebanese Entity is Threatened, Changing Lebanon's Face Should be Thwarted-Naharnet
Hizbullah to Obama: Those Whose History Was Based on Eliminating People Cannot Guide Others-Naharnet
Feltman:It is Naïve For Some to Think That Elections Won't Affect U.S. Policy in Lebanon-Naharnet
Paris Denies Kouchner Proposed Taef Revision-Naharnet
Bkirki: We Look Forward for Reform with Suleiman After Elections
-Naharnet
Obama hopeful of Middle East peace progress this year-Daily Star
Obeid: Aoun and Geagea are both loyal to their friends unlike Gemayel-iloubnan.info
Uranium found at second Syria site - IAEA-BBC News
Lebanon's future in hands of small number of districts-Daily Star
Maronite Bishops urge Sleiman to lead reform drive after legislative elections-Daily Star
Attorney General's office investigates forged ID cards-Daily Star
Army has busted '25 Mossad cells, 6 Al-Qaeda groups-Daily Star
Salameh must remain at head of central bank after polls - experts-Daily Star
US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections-Daily Star
Unity cabinet most likely outcome of polls-Daily Star
Prominent NGO sees unity government as only viable option after elections-Daily Star
Massive influx of expats can impact vote results-Daily Star
University students make up bulk of local election observers-Daily Star
Young Lebanese to play crucial role in Sunday's voting-Daily Star
Activists to keep pressing for reform of nationality law-Daily Star

Sfeir: Lebanese Entity is Threatened, Changing Lebanon's Face Should be Thwarted
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said that Lebanon is facing a threat to entity and Arab identity. The patriarch added that this danger should receive attention.
The patriarch stressed, "national duty calls on all of us to be aware of what is being planned. We must work hard on thwarting all attempts that if successful could change the face of Lebanon." He called on all Lebanese to pay attention to such dangers and to "adopt courageous stances that would further establish our Lebanese identity and maintain Lebanon as a free country filled with moral virtues, full sovereignty and achieved independence." Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 13:09

Hizbullah to Obama: Those Whose History Was Based on Eliminating People Cannot Guide Others
Naharnet/Hizbullah commented on U.S. President Barack Obama's Cairo speech saying it represents a clear copy of strictly contradictory U.S. policy. A Hizbullah statement on Saturday said those who history was mainly based on eliminating other people couldn't guide others. The Shiite party added, "any change felt by the region's Muslim and Arab people in the speech is not related to a change in U.S, strategy, but rather to repeated [U.S.] failures in conquering Arab and Muslim states as well as the failure of policies." The party said that this is mainly due to the [continued] "resistance by forces of resistance, liberation and independence. "Hizbullah described president Obama's speech as a form of "smart talk that aims to polish Washington's deformed image. This does not rise up to the standard of a new strategy, or [political] objective by the new American administration." Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 13:24

Feltman:It is Naïve For Some to Think That Elections Won't Affect U.S. Policy in Lebanon
Naharnet/U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffery Feltman said it would be naïve for some to think that the outcome of the Lebanese parliamentary elections won't affect U.S. policy in Lebanon. In an joint interview with both dailies An-Nahar and al-Hayat on Saturday, Feltman said: "The election's outcome will naturally affect world's stance towards the new Lebanese government and the manner in which the United States and Congress deal with Lebanon."
"I believe the Lebanese are smart enough to understand that there will be an effect. When Hizbullah claims that there won't be any effect, when it claims that it is not interested in the matter, I tend to believe that the Lebanese with their intelligence would think otherwise," Feltman said.
He went on to indirectly criticizing Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun saying: "one of your politicians is proposing that Christians shouldn't depend on the United States. I hope the Lebanese had accurately listened to president's [Barack Obama] speech that specifically pointed to the widest Christian religious minority in Lebanon, the Maronites. The president spoke about the need for respecting all peoples in the region including minorities…I hope the Lebanese would ask themselves: do we want to be on the side of the international community and close to the stances that president Obama made? I hope they would say yes."
Feltman added that president Obama's speech received wide regional and international support, hoping that the Lebanese would take seriously "and be part of the president's proposed partnership that was welcomed by the world."
The U.S. official added that the role of President Michel Suleiman is important symbolically and constitutionally "due to the fact that Suleiman was elected to office by consensus. We hold great respect to the president and the office of the Lebanese presidency as an institution, we strongly appreciate his leading role."
Feltman said that Lebanon has benefited greatly from international support resulting from the role played by the Lebanese in 2005.
"We expect the elections to take place, the formation of a new government that would adopt a number of resolutions according to the constitution by peaceful means according to the Lebanese people wish," he said.
He added that the United States is working for regional peace, saying his country is committed to peace in the Middle East.
"President Obama's speech [in Cairo] rejected violence as means for achieving political goals this is a message that I hope Lebanese voters would take into consideration when they head to the polls on Sunday," Feltman said. "We want this election to take place in peace with no threats or violence. In the past years [the U.S.] Congress has affirmed its support to Lebanon's sovereignty and democratic aspirations…my hope is that this election would allow the process of democracy to continue and flourish," U.S. Congressional Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Howard Berman said. U.S. House of Representatives Nick Rahall (Democrat-West Virginia), issued a statement in which he reiterated his stance in supporting a free, sovereign and independent Lebanon, removed from any foreign intervention. He added that he looks forward to an honest and transparent election. Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 07:52

Paris Denies Kouchner Proposed Taef Revision
Naharnet/French Foreign Ministry denied stories that Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner had ever proposed to anyone to review the 1990 Taef accord.
The Taef accord divides political power in Lebanon among Sunnis, Shiites and Christians. French Foreign Ministry Spokesman Eric Chauvalier, stressed that France's stance towards Lebanon supports the work of the Taef accord. Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 08:12

Bkirki: We Look Forward for Reform with Suleiman After Elections

Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops said it looked forward for reform with President Michel Suleiman following Sunday's parliamentary elections. "We look forward to begin the process of reform with President Michel Suleiman following the parliamentary elections starting with reactivating constitutional institutions that alone could ensure political, security and economic stability," the bishops said after their yearly conclave under Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. They called for a wide decentralized government in order to "build national unity and…improve sustainability," said Monsignor Youssef Tawq, who read the concluding statement. The bishops urged the state to implement economic and tax reforms, support industrial and agricultural production and tourism. The statement also called on the state to provide job opportunities for youth and urge them to remain in the country. The bishops "urged all Lebanese to preserve their unified nation," Tawq said, adding that they should resort to dialogue to settle all differences. The bishops reiterated their stance on the elections, saying they should be held transparently. They also called on the Lebanese to put their nation's interest first in order to secure a better future for their children. Beirut, 05 Jun 09, 14:53

Maronite Bishops urge Sleiman to lead reform drive after legislative elections
Council 'looks forward' to beginning process with president

By Therese Sfeir /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Maronite Bishops Council called on Friday for implementing reforms following the legislative elections. In a statement issued at the end of its yearly assembly in Bkirki, the council said it was "looking forward to begin the process of reform with President Michel Sleiman following Sunday's elections."
The council added that reforms should start with "reactivating constitutional institutions that alone could ensure political, security and economic stability."
The bishops also called for the implementation of economic reforms, and the support of industrial and agricultural production and tourism.
The bishops also said that the state should provide job opportunities for youth and encourage them not to leave their country.
They also stressed the need to achieve decentralization in order to "establish national unity and ... improve sustainability."
The bishops "urged all Lebanese to preserve the unity of their country," the statement said, urging them to resort to dialogue to settle all differences.
They also said that the elections should be held in a "transparent atmosphere."
"The council urges the Lebanese to put their nation's interests first in order to secure a better future for their children." the statement added.
Meanwhile, Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri called for the establishment of a state of institutions.
In a rally held on Friday to announce the end of the movement's electoral campaign, Hariri addressed the voters, saying: "You have 36 hours to stop anyone from overthrowing our free and independent republic and our free economic system, for us to commit to the full equal sharing of power."
"We will stand in the face of those who want to stop us from believing that we can live one day without crisis, in a state of institutions led by a strong president," he said. "The decision of every Lebanese voter will determine the fate of Lebanon. It is a destiny that we create today. Our decision is what we will remember in the future when our children ask us what we have done," he added.
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said that Hizbullah's arms were "intended to face Israel."
During an FPM electoral rally in Zahleh, Aoun said that concerns over Hizbullah's arms were baseless. "The resistance arms are to protect you and not to attack you," he added.
Also on Friday, Aoun said the day following the legislative polls "will be the beginning of a new renaissance."
Addressing Lebanese expatriates in Australia and Canada, he said the Future Movement's economic program was "based on corruption, public debts and taxes."
The FPM leader reiterated that his party rejected the naturalization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Sleiman met Friday with a delegation from the EU Mission for observing the polls, headed by Jose Ignacio Salafranca.
Salafranca informed the president of the mission's role in monitoring the upcoming elections. He also praised the Lebanese government and bodies for "facilitating the work of the delegation."
Sleiman also met with former US President Jimmy Carter, who is heading a delegation from the Carter Center to monitor the polls.
Carter thanked Sleiman and Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, for "facilitating the mission of observers who have been dispatched to start their mission in 26 polling stations."
Carter and his delegation also visited Premier Fouad Siniora.
Siniora also met with the European Union delegation to monitor the elections, headed by Salafranca. Meanwhile, Baroud said on Friday that the electoral process should "meet international standards." After a meeting with the EU poll monitoring delegation, Baroud said international monitoring was "helping the Lebanese in the electoral process, and not meddling in the country's domestic affairs."
Meanwhile, in a news conference held Friday, the interior minister said forged identity cards could not be used on Sunday's parliamentary elections due to measures adopted by the ministry.
Baroud added that voting by government election employees was very high and ranged between 85 to 99 percent. Around 11,000 civil servants cast their ballots on Thursday ahead of the Sunday's polls. Army commander General Jean Kahwaji held a military meeting on Friday, during which he urged all army officers to be on alert on Sunday in order to ensure that all citizens arrive safely to polling stations and cast their votes freely. He also called on army officers to be "firm while containing any conflict."
In other developments, Hizbullah said on Friday that it had set up electoral machinery in South Lebanon to cover the parliamentary elections. In a statement issued by Hizbullah's media office in Nabatieh, the party said its machinery was "ready to cover the election day on Sunday and to provide reporters with continuous communication with their media outlets."

US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Arshad Mohammed/Reuters
WASHINGTON: Chances are low that the United States would totally cut off military funding to Lebanon if Hizbullah and its allies win Sunday's election because both sides will want to avoid a confrontation, analysts said. But a victory by the Shiite group, viewed as a "terrorist organization" by Washington, and its allies could lead to a reduction in what has been burgeoning US assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces in recent years.
Pollsters expect the March 8 alliance that includes Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hizbullah to gain a slight edge in the election and to erase the governing Western-backed, anti-Syrian "March 14" coalition's slender majority. That said, with vote-buying rampant and many expatriates returning to cast ballots, the parliamentary elections may be too close to call and the outcome could be a national unity government, albeit one in which Hizbullah has a stronger hand.
As a result, analysts saw little chance of a major swing in Lebanese government policy, or of Hizbullah forcing through an agenda unpalatable to the US.
"The election's likely muted outcome militates against tectonic change in Lebanon," Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute for Peace wrote this week, adding: "Neither side will be able to impose a highly partisan agenda."The United States has given the Lebanese Armed Forces more than $500 million since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, seeking to build up an institution eroded by decades of sectarian strife and foreign influence.
The assassination triggered an international outcry that led neighboring Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon and gave rise to the March 14 anti-Syrian, pro-Western alliance that now holds a parliamentary majority. Given Washington's ban on funding groups that it deems "terrorist," a victory by Hizbullah would present the administration of President Barack Obama with a judgment call on whether any government Hizbullah helped to form could keep getting US funds.
Speaking in Beirut on May 22, US Vice President Joe Biden said "we will evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the composition of the new government and the policies it advocates."  Some analysts suggested a cut-off was not in either side's interest given US overtures to Hizbullah's two main patrons, Syria and Iran, and the likely reluctance of Hizbullah and its allies to totally isolate themselves from the West.
"I cannot imagine the United States turning its back on Lebanon," said Edward Walker, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel, saying Hizbullah would probably not force the issue by demanding key security posts in the Cabinet. "Generally speaking, we have found a way to work around the terrorist-designated organizations. I am quite sure that we can find a way to do it. And I suspect that Hizbullah would find a way to cooperate in that," Walker added. "Hizbullah and Washington have an interest in not having a nuclear exchange over this," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. "Hizbullah actually has an interest in being influential but not winning, because if they force the issue, they could find themselves deeply isolated from the West," he added.
Sentiment in the US Congress, however, may differ. "The Obama administration will ... be loathe, I think, to cut off funding ... but Congress may pose a bigger problem and will look to scale back foreign assistance," said David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. If the March 8 alliance wins, "we'll have to reassess the direction of our policy," said a congressional aide who spoke on condition of anonymity. "It's pretty likely that [US funding] would be assessed downward," he added. "The reflex here will be very negative."
The importance of the elections to Washington is shown by the fact that Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both visited Beirut in the last six weeks, a remarkable demonstration of US interest."The stakes are quite high," said a senior American official who spoke on condition that he not be identified. "Is Lebanon going to continue on the path of consolidating its independence and sovereignty and economic prosperity, or is it going to take a different road?" he asked. "These elections are being watched closely throughout the region as evidence of whether forces aligned with Iran and Syria are on the upswing, or whether the forces aligned with pragmatism and moderation ... will gain strength," he said.

Members of Constitutional Council take office
Daily Star/BEIRUT: The members of the Constitutional Council took the oath of office at the Baabda Presidential Palace Friday. The council elected Judge Issam Sleiman as its head. In remarks on the occasion, President Michel Sleiman stressed that the council should remain neutral. Sleiman said June 8, the day following the parliamentary polls, marked "the beginning of institutional reforms."He added that "every Lebanese carries the responsibility of the reform process."The Constitutional Council is the only governmental body with the authority to arbitrate post-election challenges. Five of the council's seats were filled in December, while political bickering held up the remaining appointments until May 26. - The Daily Star

Lebanon's future in hands of small number of districts
By Nicholas Kimbrell /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese will head to the polls Sunday, for what has been dubbed one of the most important elections in the country's history. The vote, which has garnered intense international interest, will decide the composition of the next parliament and the formation of a new cabinet.
As mandated by law, the final round of campaigning wrapped up Friday with leaders, like the Future Movement's Saad Hariri, urging supporters to remain calm and respect Sunday's results whatever they may be. The elections have taken the shape of a highly partisan, two-coalition contest, between the ruling March 14 majority and the March 8 opposition.
Polling suggests that the elections will be decided by a small margin of votes in a select number of districts. Either of the blocs could take a slim majority, according to analysts, but neither is expected to win a definitive mandate. In addition, the presence of several independents, with a declared allegiance to the president, has the potential to prevent either side from winning a majority, which would force the formation of a unity government. According to most counts, many of the races have effectively been decided - over 100 for a 128-member parliament - thanks to Lebanon's unique political system, a majoritarian democracy with confession-based quotas.
The remaining seats, primarily in majority Christian areas, have been fiercely contested. Lebanon's Shiite and Sunni communities are expected to hold ranks during the polls, while the Christian vote will likely decide the shape of the next government. The Metn, Baabda, Zahle, Jbail, and Kesrouan districts, all predominantly Christian, will gauge how the Christian community, deeply divided between opposition leader Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and March 14's Lebanese Forces and Phalange parties, will swing.
March 14 currently holds 68 deputies, and Aoun, to whom some analysts have given a slight advantage, must reach 36 wins to turn the balance. The Metn, in particular, with eight Christian seats, will be instrumental to a victory for either side.
The elections also showcase several high-profile contests. In Beirut I, March 14's Nayla Tueni, the daughter of assassinated MP and journalist Gebran Tueni, is running against Deputy Prime Minister Issam Abou Jamra. And in Sidon, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is taking on Nasserite candidate Osama Saad, whose family has represented the district for decades.
A new election law, the first since the 2005 Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, was passed last September to govern the polls. Despite shortcomings cited by both civil society groups and Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, the law was seen as incorporating several important reforms, like moving the elections to one day and regulating campaign spending and media coverage.
Money has nevertheless been flowing into country, financing expensive ad campaigns, local public-works projects and outright vote-buying.
Lebanese living abroad have also poured back into the country, tens of thousands in recent weeks, to take part in the elections, as Lebanese law forbids citizens from voting abroad.
In addition, a long list of international observation missions have deployed monitors across the country. The EU has sent the largest, with 100 short- and long-term observers.
"We are encouraged that the Lebanese citizens are going to participate in the vote and hope polling day and the day after will pass in a very calm way," Jose Ignacio Salafranca, the EU mission's chief observer, said Friday. In response to security fears, the Interior Ministry plans to deploy 50,000 personnel across the country on Sunday, and security analysts have told The Daily Star that incidents are unlikely thanks to the ministry's preparations.
Businesses will be shuttered starting Saturday evening, through Sunday.
On Monday afternoon, official election results will be announced to a chorus of local and regional reactions. Coming on the heels of US and Israeli elections and falling just days before the Iranian presidential polls, the Lebanese elections have been closely followed by the international community. Many inside Lebanon and out have painted the contests as a gauge of competing US and Iranian influence in the region. The US lists Hizbullah as a terrorist group, and it remains to be seen how an opposition win would affect US-Lebanese relations.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden have both visited Beirut ahead of the polls, and each has said that the US will evaluate assistance to Lebanon - more than $1 billion in recent years - after the elections. Speaking with Reuters, former US President Jimmy Carter, who is heading the Carter Center's observation mission, said he expected the US to recognize the results "no matter who wins."

Attorney General's office investigates forged ID cards

Daily Star staff/Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Attorney general's office started investigating a case concerning forged ID cards, after the Interior Ministry delivered some samples that were found and confiscated from locations in Mount Lebanon, pan -Arab daily Al-Hayat reported on Friday. Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud announced Friday that he he will be revealing steps to combat electoral fraud during a news conference at the special election premises inside the Interior Ministry on Saturday.
According to Al-Hayat, Lebanon's attorney General Saeed Mirza assigned criminal investigators to look into the case, saying that they had not made any arrests yet.
Earlier this week, Lebanese authorities confiscated thousands of forged ID cards from both individuals and political parties alike ahead of Lebanon's parliamentary elections.
Up to 10,000 fake identity papers have been seized in the districts of Baabda, Western Bekaa, Zahle and Southern Lebanon over the last few days, Lebanese media reported. The bogus IDs are now in the hands of the security forces, who are taking action against those behind the forgery, pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat said on Thursday. Initial investigations have so far uncovered a printer used to produce the counterfeit identity cards, the paper said. Around 3,700 fake identity cards have also been discovered at the offices of a major political party, the Al-Liwaa newspaper claimed, citing a well-informed source.
Information about the phony ID cards was first brought to public attention by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora during Tuesday's Cabinet session. - The Daily Star

US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Arshad Mohammed/Reuters
WASHINGTON: Chances are low that the United States would totally cut off military funding to Lebanon if Hizbullah and its allies win Sunday's election because both sides will want to avoid a confrontation, analysts said. But a victory by the Shiite group, viewed as a "terrorist organization" by Washington, and its allies could lead to a reduction in what has been burgeoning US assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces in recent years. Pollsters expect the March 8 alliance that includes Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hizbullah to gain a slight edge in the election and to erase the governing Western-backed, anti-Syrian "March 14" coalition's slender majority

Prominent NGO sees unity government as only viable option after elections
Failure to compromise could spark violence

By Dalila Mahdawi /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The key test of Lebanon's parliamentary elections on Sunday is whether it can achieve peaceful compromise between the rival coalitions and prevent sparking renewed violence, a prominent non-governmental organization said on Thursday. Sunday's elections pitting the March 14 coalition against the March 8 opposition will not resolve decades-old sectarian wounds, said International Crisis Group (ICG) in its report, "Lebanon's Elections: Avoiding a New Cycle of Confrontation." The organization sees a coalition government similar to the current arrangement as the only viable option for ensuring stability, but says the old political divisions will remain.
"That the parties agreed to shift their conflict from the streets to the ballot box is surely a good thing, but it should not be misinterpreted," said Peter Harling, project director at ICG Lebanon. "The results will almost certainly be close and thus replicate the schism that divides the political arena into two irreconcilable camps."
The report pointed to aggressive campaigning by both political camps which the ICG said "awaken" memories of Lebanon's 1975-1990 Civil War. "Both camps are engaging in brinkmanship, seeking to intimidate opponents by implicitly warning of widespread instability should results be not to their liking," ICG said
ICG labeled the chances of a one-sided government as improbable and unwise, citing both Hizbullah's ability to obstruct political decision making and the group's keenness to avoid repeating Hamas' experience in Gaza. "Regardless of post-electoral maneuvering, the best one can expect is avoiding a new violence confrontation, even as political paralysis and underlying conflicts persist," the report noted.
Lebanon's elections will also assess how the international community reacts to the election results, ICG added. "Central in this regard will be the attitude of foreign powers, whose local allies are quick to admit that Lebanon's domestic conflict only can be resolved if they reach a deal," said Robert Malley, ICG's Middle East Director. "At a minimum, the coalitions' respective external supporters ought to avoid past mistakes, recognize the legitimacy of electoral results and press their allies toward a peaceful compromise."
The organization made several recommendations, including reiterating a plea for Lebanon's divided camps and their respective allies to accept the election results and support power-sharing, and to re-launch the national dialogue agreed upon as part of the May 2008 Doha Accord. ICG also called upon Lebanon's foreign allies to deal with the future government based on its behavior rather than its composition, and to back civil society efforts to introduce systematic reform to the country.

Army has busted '25 Mossad cells, 6 Al-Qaeda groups'

Daily Star staff/Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Lebanese army has uncovered 25 cells spying for the Israeli Mossad and arrested since early 2009 six networks belonging to Al-Qaeda, high-ranking military sources told An-Nahar newspaper in comments published on Friday. The sources said that the army arrested in the past few days a three-member network which is seen as playing a very important role in intelligence gathering and cooperating with Israel. "The spy ring could be the most dangerous of all networks given its use of highly developed security techniques," the source told An-Nahar. Furthermore, the army intelligence reportedly arrested a man identified as "H.S.F" from the southern town of Ain Qana on suspicion of spying for Israel. The man's arrest came after another alleged spy was seized from the same town at dawn Thursday.
The sources told An-Nahar that the army has been lately focusing on "fighting terrorism in its extremist and Israeli aspects" away from media spotlight.
"The army was able up to this date to uncover 25 cells spying for Israel and was able since early this year to arrest six very important extremist networks belonging to Al-Qaeda," the sources said. Investigation with members of the Israeli cells represents a real challenge because the alleged spies are trained to face investigation and the rings are not connected. Another difficulty is that each person is himself a cell and more effort is required to receive information from him during questioning.
About the latest arrests of two army colonels, the sources said: "The military command worked since assuming its duties to upgrade the intelligence directorate and improve its capabilities through security equipment. As a result of improved military security work in the past few months, suspicion fell on the two colonels who were placed under strict watch until their arrest."
The sources added that Army Chief General Jean Qahwaji took a "bold decision to open the file of cooperating with Israel. He is fully aware of the dangers of investigating with any officer because of suspicion. The decision to question the officers wasn't easy for the army command because an officer cannot be bought and sold."
The army colonels are Mansour Diab and Shahid Toumiyeh. Money and sex were reportedly two factors behind their recruitment as spies.
As for the six terrorist networks, the sources said that they are dangerous because they function on the regional and international level in addition to Lebanon where they planned attacks to target stability, including in areas where UN peacekeepers are deployed.
Members of the networks are from Arab and non-Arab nationalities and the army is coordinating with their countries. - The Daily Star, with Naharnet

15 Hard Questions about the Cairo Speech

By Walid Phares/American Thinker
May 6/6/09
Perhaps the most challenging task for analysts and commentators to accomplish after having listen to President Obama's speech in Cairo (addressed to the "Muslim World") is to know how to read it, understand the links between the points he made, capture the arguments inserted by his speech writers and thus analyze the text as a major policy change since 9/11.
In short, I would recommend for readers to establish a "map of the speech" before venturing to its various exotic suggestions and hints. Evidently, each political constituency in America, the region and the international community has its priorities and will jump to the part it deems most pressing, either exciting or depressing. However, I suggest looking at the whole idea of addressing the "Muslim world" or as the President coined it often in his speech, "the Muslims" (two different things), and understand where Obama is coming from and going to. To help in this analytical task -- and to simplify what seems to be complex -- I propose to raise the following questions and address them separately in the debate before re-sowing them as a one bloc of ideas. Here are the ones I identify as building blocks of the Obama "Muslim platform" drawn from his speech
1. Is the equation of mending relations between a nation state, America, and a whole civilization, Islam, rational? Is it academically sound to put one country and fifty two other countries in one framework of relationships? Are all 52 Muslim countries in one basket and America in another? Who framed this equation?
2. The speech mentioned "violent extremists" several times as the foe to contain and isolate. Is there not a clearer explanation of what is "violent extremism" and who are the followers of such a behavior? Is about violence only? Are all those who practice violence, from household abuse, gangsterism to mass murder part of one group? Of course not. So what constitutes extremism? Do "violent extremists" have an ideology, a platform, goals, strategies? Are they the Jihadists that the whole world knows about? Why wouldn't President Obama simply names them as such?
3. The speech argued that Americans were "traumatized" because of 9/11 and thus their view of Islam changed. Why would their view of a religion change because of an attack perpetrated by 19 hijackers? Who is drawing this conclusion? In short, if indeed Americans had a change in perception after 9/11, what was their perception before? Is this reality or is it the framing of the war of ideas by the apologist elite? Why is there a complex of guilt forced on Americans?
4. The speech argued directly and indirectly that the US government -- because of 9/11 -- did things it was not supposed to do constitutionally (or ethically). Among these breaches Mr. Obama mentioned the opening of Guantanamo. The question is: Is opening a detention center in a state of war (even not declared officially) in which active elements of the armed opponents are detained is an act aimed against an entire religion? Who said so and who framed it as such?
5. The speech delved in the claim that Islam "has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality." While it is perfectly legitimate for academics to engage in such research and draw the conclusions they wish, can an elected President in a liberal democracy make philosophical assertions in the field of controversial and debated conflicts -- not part of his or her national realm?
6. The speech -- rightly so -- praised the integration of Muslim-Americans in their own country. But did the President mention why a large number of American citizens fled many Muslim countries, including Muslim-American citizens?
7. The speech -- rightly so -- rejected stereotypes about Muslims and America. However who made these stereotypes, who propagated the narrative that they exist and who is indoctrinating segments of societies about the latter?
8. The President gladly (after significant messaging preceding the speech) mentioned Darfur. But he never called it genocide, why? Moreover, what is to be done about it? The speech was generous about what Israel and Hamas must do, and about U.S. forthcoming spending in the region, but left the audiences clueless about what to do about the first genocide of the 21st century. Why?
9. The speech called Iraq's war one of choice but stated that Iraqis are better off without the tyranny of Saddam Hussein. Doesn't this statement need more explanation? Is the conclusion that it is better to leave people under tyrannies even if they are subjected to mass killing? As for Afghanistan, the President didn't mention the Taliban once. Who are NATO, the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan facing off with? Is it normal that the one Jihadi force which protected al Qaeda as launched the 9/11 attacks and is on the offensive against democracies in two Muslim countries is not identified in the speech to the Muslim world?
10. The speech reasserted - logically -- a U.S. standing policy of supporting a two-states solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, if Israel and the Palestinian Authority have agreed on such principle already in 1993, who then is obstructing the process? Why wasn't the obstructing force, Hamas and Iran, named as such?
11. The speech granted Iran a right to develop a peaceful nuclear program, but who denied it to the Iranian people to begin with? The question is about the Iranian regime's expansionist agenda in the region not the type of technology. Nuclear capacities in the hands of a terror regime will become dangerous and armed. Is it not about the intentions of the regime?
12. The speech mentioned that there has been a controversy about democracy in the region, particularly because of the Iraq war. The question is: what is that controversy about, and thus where does the U.S. stand in this debate? Are there different values for different countries and cultures when it comes to freedom? What are they?
13. The speech advocated religious freedoms. The question is who is breaching them? The President mentioned the Maronites and the Copts but didn't explain who is causing them harm?
14. The speech addressed women's rights and the President rejected one Western position in the debate about Muslim women's freedom assessment, and asserted the rights of some women to wear the Hijab unquestioned. However why didn't he list the grievances of Muslim women who do not want to wear the Hijab and are forced to do so? The President argued that the real issue in women's status is education. But isn't their education a political and fundamental right? How can women practice the right to education if they cannot practice their freedom to choose it?
15. The speech announced - gladly -- that the United States will be spending money to help Muslim communities develop on multiple continents. But why didn't the President ask the rich elite in these countries to share the burden if not to assume it fully? Why would a nation in the northern part of the Western Hemisphere be footing the bill of development in remote regions where the financial establishment is buying shares of and controlling the American economy?
These are only few questions about a speech that will be studied and used by the current administration, its opposition, future administrations, regimes in the region, the Jihadists and dissidents alike for many years to come. It is essential that the students of such text focus on the essence and draw the proper conclusions. Indeed words matter, especially in the midst of a raging war of ideas, even if the author of the speech and the speech writers' main goal is precisely to end such a war.
**Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy.
Comments on "15 Hard Questions about the Cairo Speech"

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 07/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 12:38-44. In the course of his teaching he said, "Beware of the scribes, who like to go around in long robes and accept greetings in the marketplaces, seats of honor in synagogues, and places of honor at banquets. They devour the houses of widows and, as a pretext, recite lengthy prayers. They will receive a very severe condemnation." He sat down opposite the treasury and observed how the crowd put money into the treasury. Many rich people put in large sums. A poor widow also came and put in two small coins worth a few cents. Calling his disciples to himself, he said to them, "Amen, I say to you, this poor widow put in more than all the other contributors to the treasury. For they have all contributed from their surplus wealth, but she, from her poverty, has contributed all she had, her whole livelihood."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports.
Q & A with New Saudi Envoy to Lebanon Ali Awadh Asseri- Asharq Alawsat 06/06/09
15 Hard Questions about the Cairo Speech.
By Walid Phares 06/06/09
New to Politics But Not to Loss-Washington Post 06/06/09
What If Hezbollah Wins?Atlantic Online 06/06/09
The Hizballah Dilemma. TIME - 06/06/09
From Brazil to Byblos, Lebanese diaspora pours in for vote-The National 06/06/09
Dissenting voices are heard in Hezbollah's backyard-GulfNews06/06/09
High stakes in Lebanon's election-Christian Science Monitor 06/06/09
Lebanon Vote Draws Expatriates' Interest-Wall Street Journal 06/06/09
Lebanon's elections will be a success if they lead to the reforms we need- The Daily Star 06/06/09
The end of the 'special' US-Israel relationship? Not just yet-By Shlomo Ben-Ami 06/06/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 06/09
1 Wounded in Election-Related Security Mishap in North-Naharnet
Hizbullah: Armed Group and Strong Political Force
-Naharnet
Major Parties in Parliamentary Elections
-Naharnet
LEBANON: As voters go to polls, many fears and a few hopes-Los Angeles Times
Obama kowtows to Damascus while Syria rigs Lebanese poll-DEBKA file
Facts and figures on Lebanon-The Associated Press
Hezbollah challenges pro-West camp in Lebanon vote-The Associated Press
Correction: Nuclear Agency-Syria-Iran story-The Associated Press
Head of Christian community says Lebanese entity is threatened-Monsters and Critics.com
Sfeir: Lebanese Entity is Threatened, Changing Lebanon's Face Should be Thwarted-Naharnet
Hizbullah to Obama: Those Whose History Was Based on Eliminating People Cannot Guide Others-Naharnet
Feltman:It is Naïve For Some to Think That Elections Won't Affect U.S. Policy in Lebanon-Naharnet
Paris Denies Kouchner Proposed Taef Revision-Naharnet
Bkirki: We Look Forward for Reform with Suleiman After Elections
-Naharnet
Obama hopeful of Middle East peace progress this year-Daily Star
Obeid: Aoun and Geagea are both loyal to their friends unlike Gemayel-iloubnan.info
Uranium found at second Syria site - IAEA-BBC News
Lebanon's future in hands of small number of districts-Daily Star
Maronite Bishops urge Sleiman to lead reform drive after legislative elections-Daily Star
Attorney General's office investigates forged ID cards-Daily Star
Army has busted '25 Mossad cells, 6 Al-Qaeda groups-Daily Star
Salameh must remain at head of central bank after polls - experts-Daily Star
US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections-Daily Star
Unity cabinet most likely outcome of polls-Daily Star
Prominent NGO sees unity government as only viable option after elections-Daily Star
Massive influx of expats can impact vote results-Daily Star
University students make up bulk of local election observers-Daily Star
Young Lebanese to play crucial role in Sunday's voting-Daily Star
Activists to keep pressing for reform of nationality law-Daily Star

Sfeir: Lebanese Entity is Threatened, Changing Lebanon's Face Should be Thwarted
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said that Lebanon is facing a threat to entity and Arab identity. The patriarch added that this danger should receive attention.
The patriarch stressed, "national duty calls on all of us to be aware of what is being planned. We must work hard on thwarting all attempts that if successful could change the face of Lebanon." He called on all Lebanese to pay attention to such dangers and to "adopt courageous stances that would further establish our Lebanese identity and maintain Lebanon as a free country filled with moral virtues, full sovereignty and achieved independence." Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 13:09

Hizbullah to Obama: Those Whose History Was Based on Eliminating People Cannot Guide Others
Naharnet/Hizbullah commented on U.S. President Barack Obama's Cairo speech saying it represents a clear copy of strictly contradictory U.S. policy. A Hizbullah statement on Saturday said those who history was mainly based on eliminating other people couldn't guide others. The Shiite party added, "any change felt by the region's Muslim and Arab people in the speech is not related to a change in U.S, strategy, but rather to repeated [U.S.] failures in conquering Arab and Muslim states as well as the failure of policies." The party said that this is mainly due to the [continued] "resistance by forces of resistance, liberation and independence. "Hizbullah described president Obama's speech as a form of "smart talk that aims to polish Washington's deformed image. This does not rise up to the standard of a new strategy, or [political] objective by the new American administration." Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 13:24

Feltman:It is Naïve For Some to Think That Elections Won't Affect U.S. Policy in Lebanon
Naharnet/U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffery Feltman said it would be naïve for some to think that the outcome of the Lebanese parliamentary elections won't affect U.S. policy in Lebanon. In an joint interview with both dailies An-Nahar and al-Hayat on Saturday, Feltman said: "The election's outcome will naturally affect world's stance towards the new Lebanese government and the manner in which the United States and Congress deal with Lebanon."
"I believe the Lebanese are smart enough to understand that there will be an effect. When Hizbullah claims that there won't be any effect, when it claims that it is not interested in the matter, I tend to believe that the Lebanese with their intelligence would think otherwise," Feltman said.
He went on to indirectly criticizing Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun saying: "one of your politicians is proposing that Christians shouldn't depend on the United States. I hope the Lebanese had accurately listened to president's [Barack Obama] speech that specifically pointed to the widest Christian religious minority in Lebanon, the Maronites. The president spoke about the need for respecting all peoples in the region including minorities…I hope the Lebanese would ask themselves: do we want to be on the side of the international community and close to the stances that president Obama made? I hope they would say yes."
Feltman added that president Obama's speech received wide regional and international support, hoping that the Lebanese would take seriously "and be part of the president's proposed partnership that was welcomed by the world."
The U.S. official added that the role of President Michel Suleiman is important symbolically and constitutionally "due to the fact that Suleiman was elected to office by consensus. We hold great respect to the president and the office of the Lebanese presidency as an institution, we strongly appreciate his leading role."
Feltman said that Lebanon has benefited greatly from international support resulting from the role played by the Lebanese in 2005.
"We expect the elections to take place, the formation of a new government that would adopt a number of resolutions according to the constitution by peaceful means according to the Lebanese people wish," he said.
He added that the United States is working for regional peace, saying his country is committed to peace in the Middle East.
"President Obama's speech [in Cairo] rejected violence as means for achieving political goals this is a message that I hope Lebanese voters would take into consideration when they head to the polls on Sunday," Feltman said. "We want this election to take place in peace with no threats or violence. In the past years [the U.S.] Congress has affirmed its support to Lebanon's sovereignty and democratic aspirations…my hope is that this election would allow the process of democracy to continue and flourish," U.S. Congressional Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Howard Berman said. U.S. House of Representatives Nick Rahall (Democrat-West Virginia), issued a statement in which he reiterated his stance in supporting a free, sovereign and independent Lebanon, removed from any foreign intervention. He added that he looks forward to an honest and transparent election. Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 07:52

Paris Denies Kouchner Proposed Taef Revision
Naharnet/French Foreign Ministry denied stories that Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner had ever proposed to anyone to review the 1990 Taef accord.
The Taef accord divides political power in Lebanon among Sunnis, Shiites and Christians. French Foreign Ministry Spokesman Eric Chauvalier, stressed that France's stance towards Lebanon supports the work of the Taef accord. Beirut, 06 Jun 09, 08:12

Bkirki: We Look Forward for Reform with Suleiman After Elections

Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops said it looked forward for reform with President Michel Suleiman following Sunday's parliamentary elections. "We look forward to begin the process of reform with President Michel Suleiman following the parliamentary elections starting with reactivating constitutional institutions that alone could ensure political, security and economic stability," the bishops said after their yearly conclave under Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. They called for a wide decentralized government in order to "build national unity and…improve sustainability," said Monsignor Youssef Tawq, who read the concluding statement. The bishops urged the state to implement economic and tax reforms, support industrial and agricultural production and tourism. The statement also called on the state to provide job opportunities for youth and urge them to remain in the country. The bishops "urged all Lebanese to preserve their unified nation," Tawq said, adding that they should resort to dialogue to settle all differences. The bishops reiterated their stance on the elections, saying they should be held transparently. They also called on the Lebanese to put their nation's interest first in order to secure a better future for their children. Beirut, 05 Jun 09, 14:53

Maronite Bishops urge Sleiman to lead reform drive after legislative elections
Council 'looks forward' to beginning process with president

By Therese Sfeir /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Maronite Bishops Council called on Friday for implementing reforms following the legislative elections. In a statement issued at the end of its yearly assembly in Bkirki, the council said it was "looking forward to begin the process of reform with President Michel Sleiman following Sunday's elections."
The council added that reforms should start with "reactivating constitutional institutions that alone could ensure political, security and economic stability."
The bishops also called for the implementation of economic reforms, and the support of industrial and agricultural production and tourism.
The bishops also said that the state should provide job opportunities for youth and encourage them not to leave their country.
They also stressed the need to achieve decentralization in order to "establish national unity and ... improve sustainability."
The bishops "urged all Lebanese to preserve the unity of their country," the statement said, urging them to resort to dialogue to settle all differences.
They also said that the elections should be held in a "transparent atmosphere."
"The council urges the Lebanese to put their nation's interests first in order to secure a better future for their children." the statement added.
Meanwhile, Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri called for the establishment of a state of institutions.
In a rally held on Friday to announce the end of the movement's electoral campaign, Hariri addressed the voters, saying: "You have 36 hours to stop anyone from overthrowing our free and independent republic and our free economic system, for us to commit to the full equal sharing of power."
"We will stand in the face of those who want to stop us from believing that we can live one day without crisis, in a state of institutions led by a strong president," he said. "The decision of every Lebanese voter will determine the fate of Lebanon. It is a destiny that we create today. Our decision is what we will remember in the future when our children ask us what we have done," he added.
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said that Hizbullah's arms were "intended to face Israel."
During an FPM electoral rally in Zahleh, Aoun said that concerns over Hizbullah's arms were baseless. "The resistance arms are to protect you and not to attack you," he added.
Also on Friday, Aoun said the day following the legislative polls "will be the beginning of a new renaissance."
Addressing Lebanese expatriates in Australia and Canada, he said the Future Movement's economic program was "based on corruption, public debts and taxes."
The FPM leader reiterated that his party rejected the naturalization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Sleiman met Friday with a delegation from the EU Mission for observing the polls, headed by Jose Ignacio Salafranca.
Salafranca informed the president of the mission's role in monitoring the upcoming elections. He also praised the Lebanese government and bodies for "facilitating the work of the delegation."
Sleiman also met with former US President Jimmy Carter, who is heading a delegation from the Carter Center to monitor the polls.
Carter thanked Sleiman and Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, for "facilitating the mission of observers who have been dispatched to start their mission in 26 polling stations."
Carter and his delegation also visited Premier Fouad Siniora.
Siniora also met with the European Union delegation to monitor the elections, headed by Salafranca. Meanwhile, Baroud said on Friday that the electoral process should "meet international standards." After a meeting with the EU poll monitoring delegation, Baroud said international monitoring was "helping the Lebanese in the electoral process, and not meddling in the country's domestic affairs."
Meanwhile, in a news conference held Friday, the interior minister said forged identity cards could not be used on Sunday's parliamentary elections due to measures adopted by the ministry.
Baroud added that voting by government election employees was very high and ranged between 85 to 99 percent. Around 11,000 civil servants cast their ballots on Thursday ahead of the Sunday's polls. Army commander General Jean Kahwaji held a military meeting on Friday, during which he urged all army officers to be on alert on Sunday in order to ensure that all citizens arrive safely to polling stations and cast their votes freely. He also called on army officers to be "firm while containing any conflict."
In other developments, Hizbullah said on Friday that it had set up electoral machinery in South Lebanon to cover the parliamentary elections. In a statement issued by Hizbullah's media office in Nabatieh, the party said its machinery was "ready to cover the election day on Sunday and to provide reporters with continuous communication with their media outlets."

US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Arshad Mohammed/Reuters
WASHINGTON: Chances are low that the United States would totally cut off military funding to Lebanon if Hizbullah and its allies win Sunday's election because both sides will want to avoid a confrontation, analysts said. But a victory by the Shiite group, viewed as a "terrorist organization" by Washington, and its allies could lead to a reduction in what has been burgeoning US assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces in recent years.
Pollsters expect the March 8 alliance that includes Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hizbullah to gain a slight edge in the election and to erase the governing Western-backed, anti-Syrian "March 14" coalition's slender majority. That said, with vote-buying rampant and many expatriates returning to cast ballots, the parliamentary elections may be too close to call and the outcome could be a national unity government, albeit one in which Hizbullah has a stronger hand.
As a result, analysts saw little chance of a major swing in Lebanese government policy, or of Hizbullah forcing through an agenda unpalatable to the US.
"The election's likely muted outcome militates against tectonic change in Lebanon," Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute for Peace wrote this week, adding: "Neither side will be able to impose a highly partisan agenda."The United States has given the Lebanese Armed Forces more than $500 million since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, seeking to build up an institution eroded by decades of sectarian strife and foreign influence.
The assassination triggered an international outcry that led neighboring Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon and gave rise to the March 14 anti-Syrian, pro-Western alliance that now holds a parliamentary majority. Given Washington's ban on funding groups that it deems "terrorist," a victory by Hizbullah would present the administration of President Barack Obama with a judgment call on whether any government Hizbullah helped to form could keep getting US funds.
Speaking in Beirut on May 22, US Vice President Joe Biden said "we will evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the composition of the new government and the policies it advocates."  Some analysts suggested a cut-off was not in either side's interest given US overtures to Hizbullah's two main patrons, Syria and Iran, and the likely reluctance of Hizbullah and its allies to totally isolate themselves from the West.
"I cannot imagine the United States turning its back on Lebanon," said Edward Walker, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel, saying Hizbullah would probably not force the issue by demanding key security posts in the Cabinet. "Generally speaking, we have found a way to work around the terrorist-designated organizations. I am quite sure that we can find a way to do it. And I suspect that Hizbullah would find a way to cooperate in that," Walker added. "Hizbullah and Washington have an interest in not having a nuclear exchange over this," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. "Hizbullah actually has an interest in being influential but not winning, because if they force the issue, they could find themselves deeply isolated from the West," he added.
Sentiment in the US Congress, however, may differ. "The Obama administration will ... be loathe, I think, to cut off funding ... but Congress may pose a bigger problem and will look to scale back foreign assistance," said David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. If the March 8 alliance wins, "we'll have to reassess the direction of our policy," said a congressional aide who spoke on condition of anonymity. "It's pretty likely that [US funding] would be assessed downward," he added. "The reflex here will be very negative."
The importance of the elections to Washington is shown by the fact that Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both visited Beirut in the last six weeks, a remarkable demonstration of US interest."The stakes are quite high," said a senior American official who spoke on condition that he not be identified. "Is Lebanon going to continue on the path of consolidating its independence and sovereignty and economic prosperity, or is it going to take a different road?" he asked. "These elections are being watched closely throughout the region as evidence of whether forces aligned with Iran and Syria are on the upswing, or whether the forces aligned with pragmatism and moderation ... will gain strength," he said.

Members of Constitutional Council take office
Daily Star/BEIRUT: The members of the Constitutional Council took the oath of office at the Baabda Presidential Palace Friday. The council elected Judge Issam Sleiman as its head. In remarks on the occasion, President Michel Sleiman stressed that the council should remain neutral. Sleiman said June 8, the day following the parliamentary polls, marked "the beginning of institutional reforms."He added that "every Lebanese carries the responsibility of the reform process."The Constitutional Council is the only governmental body with the authority to arbitrate post-election challenges. Five of the council's seats were filled in December, while political bickering held up the remaining appointments until May 26. - The Daily Star

Lebanon's future in hands of small number of districts
By Nicholas Kimbrell /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese will head to the polls Sunday, for what has been dubbed one of the most important elections in the country's history. The vote, which has garnered intense international interest, will decide the composition of the next parliament and the formation of a new cabinet.
As mandated by law, the final round of campaigning wrapped up Friday with leaders, like the Future Movement's Saad Hariri, urging supporters to remain calm and respect Sunday's results whatever they may be. The elections have taken the shape of a highly partisan, two-coalition contest, between the ruling March 14 majority and the March 8 opposition.
Polling suggests that the elections will be decided by a small margin of votes in a select number of districts. Either of the blocs could take a slim majority, according to analysts, but neither is expected to win a definitive mandate. In addition, the presence of several independents, with a declared allegiance to the president, has the potential to prevent either side from winning a majority, which would force the formation of a unity government. According to most counts, many of the races have effectively been decided - over 100 for a 128-member parliament - thanks to Lebanon's unique political system, a majoritarian democracy with confession-based quotas.
The remaining seats, primarily in majority Christian areas, have been fiercely contested. Lebanon's Shiite and Sunni communities are expected to hold ranks during the polls, while the Christian vote will likely decide the shape of the next government. The Metn, Baabda, Zahle, Jbail, and Kesrouan districts, all predominantly Christian, will gauge how the Christian community, deeply divided between opposition leader Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and March 14's Lebanese Forces and Phalange parties, will swing.
March 14 currently holds 68 deputies, and Aoun, to whom some analysts have given a slight advantage, must reach 36 wins to turn the balance. The Metn, in particular, with eight Christian seats, will be instrumental to a victory for either side.
The elections also showcase several high-profile contests. In Beirut I, March 14's Nayla Tueni, the daughter of assassinated MP and journalist Gebran Tueni, is running against Deputy Prime Minister Issam Abou Jamra. And in Sidon, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is taking on Nasserite candidate Osama Saad, whose family has represented the district for decades.
A new election law, the first since the 2005 Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, was passed last September to govern the polls. Despite shortcomings cited by both civil society groups and Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, the law was seen as incorporating several important reforms, like moving the elections to one day and regulating campaign spending and media coverage.
Money has nevertheless been flowing into country, financing expensive ad campaigns, local public-works projects and outright vote-buying.
Lebanese living abroad have also poured back into the country, tens of thousands in recent weeks, to take part in the elections, as Lebanese law forbids citizens from voting abroad.
In addition, a long list of international observation missions have deployed monitors across the country. The EU has sent the largest, with 100 short- and long-term observers.
"We are encouraged that the Lebanese citizens are going to participate in the vote and hope polling day and the day after will pass in a very calm way," Jose Ignacio Salafranca, the EU mission's chief observer, said Friday. In response to security fears, the Interior Ministry plans to deploy 50,000 personnel across the country on Sunday, and security analysts have told The Daily Star that incidents are unlikely thanks to the ministry's preparations.
Businesses will be shuttered starting Saturday evening, through Sunday.
On Monday afternoon, official election results will be announced to a chorus of local and regional reactions. Coming on the heels of US and Israeli elections and falling just days before the Iranian presidential polls, the Lebanese elections have been closely followed by the international community. Many inside Lebanon and out have painted the contests as a gauge of competing US and Iranian influence in the region. The US lists Hizbullah as a terrorist group, and it remains to be seen how an opposition win would affect US-Lebanese relations.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden have both visited Beirut ahead of the polls, and each has said that the US will evaluate assistance to Lebanon - more than $1 billion in recent years - after the elections. Speaking with Reuters, former US President Jimmy Carter, who is heading the Carter Center's observation mission, said he expected the US to recognize the results "no matter who wins."

Attorney General's office investigates forged ID cards

Daily Star staff/Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Attorney general's office started investigating a case concerning forged ID cards, after the Interior Ministry delivered some samples that were found and confiscated from locations in Mount Lebanon, pan -Arab daily Al-Hayat reported on Friday. Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud announced Friday that he he will be revealing steps to combat electoral fraud during a news conference at the special election premises inside the Interior Ministry on Saturday.
According to Al-Hayat, Lebanon's attorney General Saeed Mirza assigned criminal investigators to look into the case, saying that they had not made any arrests yet.
Earlier this week, Lebanese authorities confiscated thousands of forged ID cards from both individuals and political parties alike ahead of Lebanon's parliamentary elections.
Up to 10,000 fake identity papers have been seized in the districts of Baabda, Western Bekaa, Zahle and Southern Lebanon over the last few days, Lebanese media reported. The bogus IDs are now in the hands of the security forces, who are taking action against those behind the forgery, pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat said on Thursday. Initial investigations have so far uncovered a printer used to produce the counterfeit identity cards, the paper said. Around 3,700 fake identity cards have also been discovered at the offices of a major political party, the Al-Liwaa newspaper claimed, citing a well-informed source.
Information about the phony ID cards was first brought to public attention by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora during Tuesday's Cabinet session. - The Daily Star

US weighs Lebanon aid if opposition wins elections
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Arshad Mohammed/Reuters
WASHINGTON: Chances are low that the United States would totally cut off military funding to Lebanon if Hizbullah and its allies win Sunday's election because both sides will want to avoid a confrontation, analysts said. But a victory by the Shiite group, viewed as a "terrorist organization" by Washington, and its allies could lead to a reduction in what has been burgeoning US assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces in recent years. Pollsters expect the March 8 alliance that includes Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hizbullah to gain a slight edge in the election and to erase the governing Western-backed, anti-Syrian "March 14" coalition's slender majority

Prominent NGO sees unity government as only viable option after elections
Failure to compromise could spark violence

By Dalila Mahdawi /Daily Star staff
Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The key test of Lebanon's parliamentary elections on Sunday is whether it can achieve peaceful compromise between the rival coalitions and prevent sparking renewed violence, a prominent non-governmental organization said on Thursday. Sunday's elections pitting the March 14 coalition against the March 8 opposition will not resolve decades-old sectarian wounds, said International Crisis Group (ICG) in its report, "Lebanon's Elections: Avoiding a New Cycle of Confrontation." The organization sees a coalition government similar to the current arrangement as the only viable option for ensuring stability, but says the old political divisions will remain.
"That the parties agreed to shift their conflict from the streets to the ballot box is surely a good thing, but it should not be misinterpreted," said Peter Harling, project director at ICG Lebanon. "The results will almost certainly be close and thus replicate the schism that divides the political arena into two irreconcilable camps."
The report pointed to aggressive campaigning by both political camps which the ICG said "awaken" memories of Lebanon's 1975-1990 Civil War. "Both camps are engaging in brinkmanship, seeking to intimidate opponents by implicitly warning of widespread instability should results be not to their liking," ICG said
ICG labeled the chances of a one-sided government as improbable and unwise, citing both Hizbullah's ability to obstruct political decision making and the group's keenness to avoid repeating Hamas' experience in Gaza. "Regardless of post-electoral maneuvering, the best one can expect is avoiding a new violence confrontation, even as political paralysis and underlying conflicts persist," the report noted.
Lebanon's elections will also assess how the international community reacts to the election results, ICG added. "Central in this regard will be the attitude of foreign powers, whose local allies are quick to admit that Lebanon's domestic conflict only can be resolved if they reach a deal," said Robert Malley, ICG's Middle East Director. "At a minimum, the coalitions' respective external supporters ought to avoid past mistakes, recognize the legitimacy of electoral results and press their allies toward a peaceful compromise."
The organization made several recommendations, including reiterating a plea for Lebanon's divided camps and their respective allies to accept the election results and support power-sharing, and to re-launch the national dialogue agreed upon as part of the May 2008 Doha Accord. ICG also called upon Lebanon's foreign allies to deal with the future government based on its behavior rather than its composition, and to back civil society efforts to introduce systematic reform to the country.

Army has busted '25 Mossad cells, 6 Al-Qaeda groups'

Daily Star staff/Saturday, June 06, 2009
BEIRUT: The Lebanese army has uncovered 25 cells spying for the Israeli Mossad and arrested since early 2009 six networks belonging to Al-Qaeda, high-ranking military sources told An-Nahar newspaper in comments published on Friday. The sources said that the army arrested in the past few days a three-member network which is seen as playing a very important role in intelligence gathering and cooperating with Israel. "The spy ring could be the most dangerous of all networks given its use of highly developed security techniques," the source told An-Nahar. Furthermore, the army intelligence reportedly arrested a man identified as "H.S.F" from the southern town of Ain Qana on suspicion of spying for Israel. The man's arrest came after another alleged spy was seized from the same town at dawn Thursday.
The sources told An-Nahar that the army has been lately focusing on "fighting terrorism in its extremist and Israeli aspects" away from media spotlight.
"The army was able up to this date to uncover 25 cells spying for Israel and was able since early this year to arrest six very important extremist networks belonging to Al-Qaeda," the sources said. Investigation with members of the Israeli cells represents a real challenge because the alleged spies are trained to face investigation and the rings are not connected. Another difficulty is that each person is himself a cell and more effort is required to receive information from him during questioning.
About the latest arrests of two army colonels, the sources said: "The military command worked since assuming its duties to upgrade the intelligence directorate and improve its capabilities through security equipment. As a result of improved military security work in the past few months, suspicion fell on the two colonels who were placed under strict watch until their arrest."
The sources added that Army Chief General Jean Qahwaji took a "bold decision to open the file of cooperating with Israel. He is fully aware of the dangers of investigating with any officer because of suspicion. The decision to question the officers wasn't easy for the army command because an officer cannot be bought and sold."
The army colonels are Mansour Diab and Shahid Toumiyeh. Money and sex were reportedly two factors behind their recruitment as spies.
As for the six terrorist networks, the sources said that they are dangerous because they function on the regional and international level in addition to Lebanon where they planned attacks to target stability, including in areas where UN peacekeepers are deployed.
Members of the networks are from Arab and non-Arab nationalities and the army is coordinating with their countries. - The Daily Star, with Naharnet

15 Hard Questions about the Cairo Speech

By Walid Phares/American Thinker
May 6/6/09
Perhaps the most challenging task for analysts and commentators to accomplish after having listen to President Obama's speech in Cairo (addressed to the "Muslim World") is to know how to read it, understand the links between the points he made, capture the arguments inserted by his speech writers and thus analyze the text as a major policy change since 9/11.
In short, I would recommend for readers to establish a "map of the speech" before venturing to its various exotic suggestions and hints. Evidently, each political constituency in America, the region and the international community has its priorities and will jump to the part it deems most pressing, either exciting or depressing. However, I suggest looking at the whole idea of addressing the "Muslim world" or as the President coined it often in his speech, "the Muslims" (two different things), and understand where Obama is coming from and going to. To help in this analytical task -- and to simplify what seems to be complex -- I propose to raise the following questions and address them separately in the debate before re-sowing them as a one bloc of ideas. Here are the ones I identify as building blocks of the Obama "Muslim platform" drawn from his speech
1. Is the equation of mending relations between a nation state, America, and a whole civilization, Islam, rational? Is it academically sound to put one country and fifty two other countries in one framework of relationships? Are all 52 Muslim countries in one basket and America in another? Who framed this equation?
2. The speech mentioned "violent extremists" several times as the foe to contain and isolate. Is there not a clearer explanation of what is "violent extremism" and who are the followers of such a behavior? Is about violence only? Are all those who practice violence, from household abuse, gangsterism to mass murder part of one group? Of course not. So what constitutes extremism? Do "violent extremists" have an ideology, a platform, goals, strategies? Are they the Jihadists that the whole world knows about? Why wouldn't President Obama simply names them as such?
3. The speech argued that Americans were "traumatized" because of 9/11 and thus their view of Islam changed. Why would their view of a religion change because of an attack perpetrated by 19 hijackers? Who is drawing this conclusion? In short, if indeed Americans had a change in perception after 9/11, what was their perception before? Is this reality or is it the framing of the war of ideas by the apologist elite? Why is there a complex of guilt forced on Americans?
4. The speech argued directly and indirectly that the US government -- because of 9/11 -- did things it was not supposed to do constitutionally (or ethically). Among these breaches Mr. Obama mentioned the opening of Guantanamo. The question is: Is opening a detention center in a state of war (even not declared officially) in which active elements of the armed opponents are detained is an act aimed against an entire religion? Who said so and who framed it as such?
5. The speech delved in the claim that Islam "has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality." While it is perfectly legitimate for academics to engage in such research and draw the conclusions they wish, can an elected President in a liberal democracy make philosophical assertions in the field of controversial and debated conflicts -- not part of his or her national realm?
6. The speech -- rightly so -- praised the integration of Muslim-Americans in their own country. But did the President mention why a large number of American citizens fled many Muslim countries, including Muslim-American citizens?
7. The speech -- rightly so -- rejected stereotypes about Muslims and America. However who made these stereotypes, who propagated the narrative that they exist and who is indoctrinating segments of societies about the latter?
8. The President gladly (after significant messaging preceding the speech) mentioned Darfur. But he never called it genocide, why? Moreover, what is to be done about it? The speech was generous about what Israel and Hamas must do, and about U.S. forthcoming spending in the region, but left the audiences clueless about what to do about the first genocide of the 21st century. Why?
9. The speech called Iraq's war one of choice but stated that Iraqis are better off without the tyranny of Saddam Hussein. Doesn't this statement need more explanation? Is the conclusion that it is better to leave people under tyrannies even if they are subjected to mass killing? As for Afghanistan, the President didn't mention the Taliban once. Who are NATO, the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan facing off with? Is it normal that the one Jihadi force which protected al Qaeda as launched the 9/11 attacks and is on the offensive against democracies in two Muslim countries is not identified in the speech to the Muslim world?
10. The speech reasserted - logically -- a U.S. standing policy of supporting a two-states solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, if Israel and the Palestinian Authority have agreed on such principle already in 1993, who then is obstructing the process? Why wasn't the obstructing force, Hamas and Iran, named as such?
11. The speech granted Iran a right to develop a peaceful nuclear program, but who denied it to the Iranian people to begin with? The question is about the Iranian regime's expansionist agenda in the region not the type of technology. Nuclear capacities in the hands of a terror regime will become dangerous and armed. Is it not about the intentions of the regime?
12. The speech mentioned that there has been a controversy about democracy in the region, particularly because of the Iraq war. The question is: what is that controversy about, and thus where does the U.S. stand in this debate? Are there different values for different countries and cultures when it comes to freedom? What are they?
13. The speech advocated religious freedoms. The question is who is breaching them? The President mentioned the Maronites and the Copts but didn't explain who is causing them harm?
14. The speech addressed women's rights and the President rejected one Western position in the debate about Muslim women's freedom assessment, and asserted the rights of some women to wear the Hijab unquestioned. However why didn't he list the grievances of Muslim women who do not want to wear the Hijab and are forced to do so? The President argued that the real issue in women's status is education. But isn't their education a political and fundamental right? How can women practice the right to education if they cannot practice their freedom to choose it?
15. The speech announced - gladly -- that the United States will be spending money to help Muslim communities develop on multiple continents. But why didn't the President ask the rich elite in these countries to share the burden if not to assume it fully? Why would a nation in the northern part of the Western Hemisphere be footing the bill of development in remote regions where the financial establishment is buying shares of and controlling the American economy?
These are only few questions about a speech that will be studied and used by the current administration, its opposition, future administrations, regimes in the region, the Jihadists and dissidents alike for many years to come. It is essential that the students of such text focus on the essence and draw the proper conclusions. Indeed words matter, especially in the midst of a raging war of ideas, even if the author of the speech and the speech writers' main goal is precisely to end such a war.
**Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy.
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