LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 29/09
Bible Reading of the day
Matthew 5-23 & 24: "If
therefore you are offering your gift at the altar, and there remembered that
your brother has anything against you, leave your gift there before the altar,
and go your way. First be reconciled to your brother, and then come and offer
your gift.
Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special
Reports
Britain and Hezbollah: A change of
heart? By: Maysam Ali, NOW Staff 28/06/09
The Aoun clip controversy to a
psychoanalyst. NOW Lebanon 28/06/09
Never again. Now Lebanon 28/06/09
Saad is an Idea and Not a Project.By:
Tariq Alhomayed
28/06/09
Iran’s Demonstrations: Imperfect
Revolution.By:
Diana Mukkaled.
28/06/09
Iran: A Rift that Cannot be Healed.By:
Amir Taheri 28/06/09
Whither Iran? By: Amir Taheri
28/06/09
Latest
News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June
28/09
Iran sparks new row with Britain
over election-Reuter
Iran Arrests
British Embassy Staff over Riots.(AFP)
Najjar: Unity cabinet but no
obstructing third. Now Lebanon
Sfeir Welcomes Hariri's
Designation, Criticizes High Petrol Prices-Naharnet
Premier-designate Saad
Hariri visits former PMs-Future
News
Mufti Kabbani
congratulates Hariri: assisting Hariri ‘a national duty’-Future
News
Eddé invites all political
forces to form a national unity government-Future
News
Beydoun: Hizbullah’s
stance regarding the government is contradictory-Future
News
Jumblatt: ‘Lebanon
First’ meaningless without Arabism-Future
News
Political Leaders
Contemplate a Number of Power Sharing Formulas-Naharnet
Opposition Aims for Either Veto
Power or Proportional Representation but Will Wait for Negotiations with Hariri-Naharnet
Parliament in Lebanon Picks Hariri as Premier-New
York Times
International Tribunal Signs MoU with Lebanon-Naharnet
Arslan: Opposition Either
Takes Part in Cabinet as 'a Whole' or Doesn't-Naharnet
Premier-Designate Hariri
Vows to Form 'Homogeneous' Cabinet-Naharnet
Saad Hariri: Political
Novice Turned Premier-Naharnet
France, United States
Welcome Hariri's Designation for Premiership-Naharnet
Army: Don't Answer Israeli
Phone Messages-Naharnet
Jumblat: Cabinet Statement Should Address Hizbullah Qualms-Naharnet
Williams: Syria to Return Shebaa
to Lebanon Once it Signs Peace With Israel-Naharnet
'Change and Reform' Bloc Wants Justice
Ministry-Naharnet
Sfeir Welcomes Hariri's Designation, Criticizes High
Petrol Prices
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir welcomed in Sunday's sermon Saad
Hariri's designation for the premiership as a "very good" step. "We wish him
luck in his mission to form a government," he said. He added: "deputies will
decide whether or not the formation will face hurdles." On another note, Sfeir
criticized the high cost of petrol warning it "did encourage summertime tourist
season." He voiced hope officials will "address the issue as soon as possible by
striking a balance between consumer needs and their (financial) capabilities."
Beirut, 28 Jun 09,
Beydoun: Hizbullah’s stance
regarding the government is contradictory
Date: June 27th, 2009 Source: MTV
Former Minister Muhammad Abdel Hamid Beydoun considered Saturday the stance of
Hizbullah contradictory, noting that the party wants to participate in a
government without naming its prime minister. The party’s MPs did not name a
prime minister in yesterday’s parliamentary consultations at the presidential
palace in Baabda. Hizbullah bloc head MP Muhammad Raad had announced at the end
of the meeting with President Michel Sleiman that they did not name anyone
however they are willing to cooperate with majority leader MP Saad Hariri who’s
been charged by Sleiman to compose the government. Beydoun added that the
opposition camp is convinced that their defeat in the June 7 parliamentary
elections would force them to get rid of the veto power in the government. The
former minister also said that the parliamentary majority will have 16 ministers
out of 30 not the two thirds of the seats, and called on the minority to
cooperate with the March 14 coalition in the government composition.
Jumblatt: ‘Lebanon First’ meaningless without Arabism
Date: June 28th, 2009 Future News
Leader of the ‘Democratic Gathering’ bloc MP Walid Jumblatt said Sunday the
‘Lebanon First’ slogan, launched by leader of Almustaqbal bloc and designate
Prime Minister Saad Hariri, “is meaningless without Arabism”.“There is no
Lebanon without Arabism and without Palestine”, Jumblatt said.Jumblatt expressed
his sorrow “because we have returned to sectarian divisions”, adding “we were
raised on the values of Arabism and on Lebanon as part of the wide Arab
prospect, and not on ‘Lebanon First’.”Jumblatt addressed a crowd during a
ceremony held to honor the General Director of Public Transportation and Trails
Radwan Abu Nasreddine for his retirement at the national library assembly in
Chouf region. Hoping the new government will maintain the public sector, the
Druze leader said he “will not take part in the upcoming government within
privatization for the public transportation, electricity, social security, or
communication.” Jumblatt said Minister of Transportation Ghazi Areedi, member of
his bloc, has worked hard to activate the sector, “but the Prime Ministry stood
in his way.”
Eddé invites all political forces to form a national unity government
Date: June 28th, 2009 Future News
National Bloc leader Carlos Eddé told Voice of Lebanon radio (VDL) on Sunday
that the opposition will resume its arm twisting policy in the country.
Eddé called all the forces including the majority, Speaker Nabih Berry’s bloc,
Hizbullah and the Tashnaq party and all who voted for President Saad Hariri to
form a national unity government. Saad Hariri has been nominated to form a new
Lebanese government Saturday after garnering the support of 86 members of the
128-seat body.
Eddé confirmed that March 14 alliance emerged stronger after the parliamentary
elections on June 7 despite the slight division within some of its elements.
He affirmed that the opposition is not likely to grant President Michel Sleiman
its veto power because Hizbullah is determined to maintain the Wilayat al-Faqih
principle, the war and peace decisions and its weapons. Prime Minister-designate
Saad Hariri had suggested a formula for the cabinet during his meeting with
Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday overnight, which was not
received positively by the opposition. He suggested the majority would have 16
ministers, the opposition 10 ministers and the president four.
Hariri and Nasrallah agreed to begin discussions after Hariri was named the next
prime minister; however the opposition confirmed it required at least one third
of votes before it would agree to join the cabinet. National bloc leader said
Syria’s fundamental political change towards Lebanon is due to its improved
relations with the west.
After four years of no diplomatic relations, President Obama has decided to send
an ambassador to Syria indicating more communication with the Syrian government.
Saad Hariri: Political Novice Turned Premier
Naharnet/Saad Hariri, who was propelled into the heart of Lebanese politics
following the assassination of his former prime minister father four years ago,
was himself named to the top job on Saturday. After the murder of his popular
father, Rafik, in a 2005 bomb blast, the young tycoon took center stage in the
anti-Syrian opposition, and now has two parliamentary election wins under its
belt. Three weeks after Hariri's March 14 alliance clinched 71 out of
parliament's 128 seats in the June 7 poll, President Michel Suleiman tasked
Hariri with forming a new government. The Saudi-born Hariri initially attributed
his political success to the sympathy vote for his father and five-time
ex-premier, who founded al-Mustaqbal movement that his 39-year-old son now
leads. Already a success of his own in the business world, Hariri was chosen to
continue the "national and political mission" of his father, who was credited
with rebuilding Lebanon after the devastating 1975-1990 civil war. Forbes
magazine put Saad Hariri's net worth at 1.4 billion dollars in its 2009 list of
the world's billionaires, down from 3.3 billion last year. Hariri was one of the
main negotiators in the formation of the unity government in May 2008, bringing
to an end a political crisis that had brought Lebanon to the brink of civil war.
Hariri is a business graduate of Georgetown University in Washington, and heads
his late father's Saudi-based construction firm, Saudi Oger. One of the largest
companies in the Middle East, it employs around 35,000 people. The Hariri
empire, which Saad has managed since 1996, also spans banking, real estate and
media through companies such as Saudi Investment Bank, Saudi Research and
Marketing Group and Future Television. He also has his own real estate
company.Saad Hariri, who also holds Saudi nationality, was born April 18, 1970,
Rafik Hariri's second son by his first Iraqi wife.He is married to Lara Bashir
al-Adem, who hails from a prestigious Syrian family, and the couple has two
children.(AFP) Beirut, 27 Jun 09, 15:52
Opposition Aims for Either Veto Power or Proportional Representation but Will
Wait for Negotiations with Hariri
Naharnet/Opposition forces will wait the outcome of consultations by
Premier-designate Saad Hariri on the formation of a future government before
deciding on whether or not to participate, press reports said Sunday. However,
the opposition has set down its minimum demands for its participation in a
government insisting on either proportional representation or veto power, March
8 sources told the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat in comments published Sunday.
"Participation in the government is only be possible if (the opposition has)
veto power, if not more," they said, repeating that March 8 leaders are in
complete agreement in this regard. Hariri had proposed a formula of 10-4-16 to
Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during their talks Thursday night, but
did not receive a favorable reaction, the sources added. The two leaders agreed
to "revisit the issue after Hariri's nomination as prime minister. Nasrallah
reaffirmed that "veto power was the minimum condition for the opposition
participation," the paper reported. In an interview with An Nahar daily,
Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah said "opposition forces were in complete accord"
over conditions for their participation in the government. "Hizbullah and Hariri
have already agreed to continue deliberations and contacts. We are waiting for
the designate premier to turn (words) into political realities because openness
has requirements. This is what the negotiations will show," he added.
Fadlalah reiterated that Hizbullah was "prepared for cooperation with an open
mind depending on what the premier designate will propose for an upcoming
government."
Another Hizbullah MP, Nawwaf al-Moussawi, told the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat
that "opposition forces will take the appropriate position in light of what the
premier designate will propose."He stressed the need for "active and real
partnership to allow the formation of a government worthy of being called one of
national unity.""Discussion is ongoing and there are rules that must be
respected," he said, advising against "skipping stages." "It is not matter of
shares, it is a matter of implementing the requirements of consensus and
constitutional provisions," Moussawi added. Change and Reform bloc MP Alain Aoun
repeated calls for proportional representation but said the opposition will "not
pre-empt negations with the premier designate. When we find out what Hariri will
propose, then we can adopt a position." "A government of national unity is the
best guarantee for stability. There is no need for the previous alignment to
remain unchanged. We can be in agreement with the ministers of al-Mustaqbal
movement and disagree with our allies," he said. "The underlying causes for the
previous alignment have been set aside and the controversial files that lead to
crises have been pulled out from the circle of debate," Aoun added. Beirut, 28
Jun 09, 09:38
Premier-Designate Hariri Vows to Form 'Homogeneous' Cabinet
Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri vowed on Saturday to form a
homogeneous and consensus government that is able to function away from
obstruction.
We "will safeguard the constitution, (state) institutions, sovereignty,
independence and the project of the building of the Lebanese state," Hariri told
reporters at Baabda palace after President Michel Suleiman designated him
Lebanon's premier and tasked him with forming a new cabinet. He vowed to form a
"homogeneous" and "consensus" government that is able to remain united and "make
achievements away from obstruction" in cooperation with the president. Hariri
also promised to keep strife and "foreign and economic" dangers away from
Lebanon. Suleiman on Saturday designated Hariri Lebanon's premier after the
majority of parliamentarians nominated the politician to the post.
"According to the constitution and after the president consulted with the
speaker of parliament and parliamentarians, he (Suleiman) summoned Saad Hariri
and tasked him with forming a new government," a presidential statement said.
The decree issued by Suleiman came after Hariri received 86 votes of approval by
lawmakers following two days of consultations. Hariri got the approval of 71 MPs
from his own majority alliance, plus Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his bloc
of 12 legislators and two Armenian MPs.
This would be Hariri's first designation to the premiership following the June 7
legislative elections in which the March 14 coalition won 71 out of the 128
seats in parliament.
The 39-year-old is to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, a member of
Hariri's al-Mustaqbal movement. From Baabda palace, Hariri headed to downtown
Beirut and prayed at his father's graveside along with Saniora and other members
of his bloc. Hariri now faces the difficult task of negotiating with other
political factions to form a government. The process can take days or even
weeks. On Sunday, he will visit former prime ministers and kick off
consultations with parliamentary blocs on cabinet formation on Monday As news
broke up about his nomination, celebratory gunfire shook Beirut and its suburbs.
However, Hariri urged citizens in a statement not to fire in the air.Around 12
people were injured from celebratory gunfire on Thursday, when parliament
reelected Berri. Beirut, 27 Jun 09, 14:47
International Tribunal Signs MoU with Lebanon
Naharnet/The office of Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare said the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon (STL) and the Lebanese government have signed a Memorandum of
Understanding on the modalities of their cooperation. A statement by Bellemare's
office, said the the MoU was signed on 5 June 2009 by Bellemare, on behalf of
the Office of the STL, and Lebanese Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar, on behalf
of the Lebanon government. The MoU was signed in two originals in the three
official languages of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon - Arabic, English and
French. The three versions are equally authentic, the statement added. Beirut,
28 Jun 09, 15:14
Arslan: Opposition Either Takes Part in Cabinet as 'a Whole' or Doesn't
Naharnet/MP Talal Arslan has said the opposition will either participate as a
"whole entity" in a future government or it stays out.
"Lebanon cannot be governed by the rule of majority and minority. It can only be
governed on the basis of balance, national consensus and higher national
interest, which is embodied in partnership not monopoly," he said Saturday night
at a celebratory dinner. He said the opposition was "a whole entity. It either
takes part in the government as such or it doesn't. There are no under the table
or over the table tradeoffs." While his bloc did not nominate a prime minister,
Arslan congratulated Saad Hariri for his designation to the premiership. Beirut,
28 Jun 09, 12:59
France, United States Welcome Hariri's Designation for Premiership
Naharnet/France and the United States welcomed Sunday the designation of Saad
Hariri as Lebanon's next prime minister with Paris reaffirming its support for
Lebanon.
In a statement, French President Nicholas Sarkozy said: "Hariri's designation as
prime minister comes after the recent polls which were held in a distinctive
manner and reaffirmed the power of democracy in Lebanon.""France will continue
to offer complete support for Lebanon's sovereignty, stability and prosperity,"
he added. For its part, Washington congratulated Hariri for his designation as
prime minister "even prior to the official announcement.""We are pleased to work
with him and his government," State department spokesman Philip Crowley said at
a press conference. Hariri was also congratulated for the post by his French and
British counterparts. Beirut, 28 Jun 09, 11:31
Army: Don't Answer Israeli Phone Messages
Naharnet/The Lebanese army warning people on Saturday not to respond to recorded
phone messages asking for information about missing Israeli soldiers. Lebanese
have been receiving phone messages periodically for more than a year asking
people to view a website or call if they have information on missing Israeli
soldiers, including Ron Arad, whose plane was shot down over Lebanon in 1986.
The site, www.10million.org, belongs to a foundation set up by the Israeli
government and offers a $10 million reward. An army statement said that the
messages were a violation of Lebanese sovereignty. It said any response would be
considered "clear collaboration" with Israel. Israel has in the past refused to
say if it was behind the calls.(AP) Beirut, 27 Jun 09, 15:20
Jumblat: Cabinet Statement Should Address Hizbullah Qualms
Naharnet/"Democratic Gathering' parliamentary bloc leader MP Walid Jumblat said
he understands the well known Hizbullah's qualms and concerns adding that the
cabinet statement should address them as it does with the concerns of others. In
statements to the daily As-Safir on Saturday Jumblat said he was not privy to
Thursday's meeting between al-Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri with
Hizbullah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The paper added that
Jumblat is to announce a stance on Monday calling on the Lebanese government to
forfeit the Arab seat at the United Nations Security Council in 2010 "because
Lebanon will be facing a major trap and an impossible mission." Beirut, 27 Jun
09, 13:15
Never again
Now Lebanon
June 27, 2009
Let’s not forget, Nabih Berri’s got a bad
So here we are. Lebanon has a new speaker – or shall we say a new old speaker –
with Nabih Berri, the man whose Amal Movement militia arguably did the dirty
work for Hezbollah on May 7, 2008 (a fact that is apparently lost on most
Lebanese), finding himself for the fifth time holding sway over Lebanon’s
parliament.
While we consider his rather unconventional track record, we should also
bookmark another example of supreme irony, this time when a member of the
Iranian authorities said very solemnly to CNN that the protesting masses on the
streets of Tehran had to recognize the “right of the majority to govern.” Of
course he had a point. If indeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did carry the day, it is
hardly the democratic thing to throw one’s toy out of one’s pram when one loses.
But there’s the rub: Why isn’t what’s good for the Iranians (and by this we mean
the winner takes all) not good enough for the equally-evolved Lebanese?
Hezbollah, who, let’s face it, are rooting for Mahmoud because they have a
shared apocalyptic vision of kicking Israel into the Mediterranean, even if it
means leveling the region in the process, could never stomach such an
arrangement. Indeed, they are demanding the controversial blocking third – or
tilt al moatel – even as, for what it’s worth, the prime minister of Qatar,
sponsor of the May 2008 Doha talks, has said that as far as his country is
concerned, the agreement is dead.
But the truth of the matter is that Doha was more of an understanding than a
cast-iron contract when it comes to the sell-by date. Thus the share of seats in
the new cabinet will indeed likely be the biggest bone of contention during the
political horse trading of the coming days.
What’s the big deal, say March 8 leaders, trying to convince us that that power
of veto is nothing more than a harmless accommodation that suits all sides in
maintaining Lebanon’s consensus. Maybe they forget that the blocking third was
responsible for quashing cabinet decisions on the budget, the supervisory
committee on the elections, and the MOU regarding the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon.
In fact, at this juncture in presenting the case for the prosecution, it is
worth reminding those who feel let down by March 14 that Fouad Siniora’s
government never really had a chance from the moment it was elected in June
2005. His colleagues were being blown up at will, and in 2006, just as we
thought it was safe to put our keys in the ignition, Hezbollah invited war and
mayhem upon us, hurtling the country back ten years. More political
assassinations, and an 18-month downtown sit-in, further added to the impasse as
the seat of government was ringed by barbed wire and troops, and March 14
ministers, MPs and advisors were holed up in the Phoenicia Hotel. Finally,
insult was added to real physical injury when Lebanon’s leaders headed to Doha
in May 2008, prodded by the still-hot barrels of the guns of Amal, Hezbollah and
other assorted March 8 thugs. In reality, the government had, in total, about
four months to address the business of the state. If ever there were an argument
for allowing the majority to rule it is now. President Michel Sleiman has
proposed to the majority a government formation that would grant the March 14
alliance 16 seats, the March 8 coalition 11 and himself three allied
ministers.For all our sakes, it should be adopted. It’s the smart move.
The Aoun clip controversy to a psychoanalyst
June 26, 2009
Now Lebanon
NOW Lebanon asked French psychoanalyst Jean-Luc Vannier, a Lebanon expert who
has lived in the country and who visits Lebanon several times a year, for a
specialist opinion on Michel Aoun’s video clip, which is being broadcast on OTV.
After watching the video, Vannier came up with the following analysis.
It is already a well-known fact that General Aoun thinks he is Charles de
Gaulle. One only needs to read his book (Une certaine vision du Liban, Éditions
Fayard, 2007) to be convinced of it. Indeed, this title alludes to the French
general’s famous quote: “All my life I have had a certain idea of France.”
Nevertheless, this video clip goes beyond the highest level of megalomania and
is the fruit of an overinvestment process of the self as an object, which leads
to hypertrophy (Freud, 1914). It expresses some kind of blind denial in light of
the angst not to exist and not to be acknowledged. The whole process borders on
psychosis: when the individual is unable to come to terms with the “true
reality” (an electoral defeat perhaps), h/she recreates his/her “own” reality in
a fantasy world, one that is equal in scope to the importance of his/her angst.
This megalomaniac delusion is, in a sense, a failed healing attempt of this
psychotic development.
What is even more striking in this video clip is the lineup of figures that are
mentioned in it: all are historically world famous, or are at least well-known.
In other words, they have managed to defy death and finiteness by leaving behind
a name or the memory of an action so important that the world cannot “possibly”
ignore it. This “impossibility” goes together with the megalomaniac process: as
far as the person who suffers from it is concerned, it is “impossible” to admit
that h/she is not known and acknowledged. It is even a matter of survival.
Moreover, the Arabic commentaries serve the same purpose as they put emphasis on
those who have “ignored”, “hated” or “accused of madness” many men of genius. It
is ultimately to these people – and to these people only – that this video clip
is addressed, as the others are already been convinced [of this argument] and
are no longer interesting. The self’s desire to be loved or idolized is similar
to the Danaids’ barrel: it is a bottomless well that cannot be emptied.
In this spiral that takes over identifications, the criteria adopted for
choosing the figures represented in a gallery of portraits reveal a
universalizing, absolute and irrefragable wish that cannot be questioned.
Likewise, one cannot help but notice the wide variety of fields of action and
thoughts encompassed by the megalomaniac patient: These include politicians from
across the political spectrum, military geniuses, human rights defenders,
religion founders, and men and women of faith. It is worth mentioning that a
particular emphasis is put on the latter category by almost “stopping at the
image”, or at least by slowing down the speed of the image presentation. Within
the framework of parallelism that is more hammered than suggested into the
viewers’ minds, a symbolic link of “Lebanese-ness” is established from the
beginning to the end of the video clip, from Gebran Khalil Gebran to General
Aoun.
Still, one cannot help but wonder about what French humorist Coluche is doing in
there as his presence in the video clip seems to be totally incongruous!
However, Freud once said that humor sometimes serves as a defense mechanism
allowing the megalomaniac to be spared the effects of his own pain. One wonders
whether the authors of the video clip have understood the meaning of the audio
sentence by the renowned French humorist, “Restez couvert” (Always be
protected), which has evolved into a slogan commonly used for calling on today’s
youth to abide by safe sexual practices. Just for once here, there may actually
be nothing to interpret!**Nice, June 19, 2009, Jean-Luc Vannier
Britain and Hezbollah: A change of heart?
Relations back on track as Hezbollah prepares to participate in the next
government
Maysam Ali, NOW Staff , June 28, 2009
The public rapprochement between the UK and Hezbollah may appear to be a
worrying about face on the part of the British government, given the frosty tone
of the relationship since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik
Hariri. In reality, it may simply be a resumption of Britain’s traditional
pragmatism in its dealings with foreign groups.
Judging by Hezbollah’s behavior and performance in last month’s general
elections, one might expect the international community, which has long been
critical of the militant group, to pressure the party to limit its military
might both inside and outside Lebanon.
But days after Hezbollah was dealt a blow in the Lebanese parliamentary
elections, British Ambassador to Lebanon Frances Guy met with Hezbollah PM
Mohammad Raad in the parliament building. The two reportedly discussed local
politics as well as the importance of implementing UN Security Council
Resolution 1701, which calls for, among other things, the disbanding of armed
groups in Lebanon.
Guy’s visit came after Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Hussein Hajj Hassan met
British officials in London in April. He declared upon his return to Beirut that
public opinion in Britain is becoming increasingly sympathetic to Hezbollah’s
cause.
At first glance, this may appear to be a sign of policy change in a country that
has black-listed Hezbollah’s military wing. Talks between the two parties are,
however, a continuation of a "routine political procedure," according to Nadim
Shehadi, Middle East associate fellow at the London-based Chatham House.
Formal relations between the UK and Hezbollah can be traced back to 2001, when
the then British Ambassador to Lebanon Richard Kinchen met with Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Haret Hreik. After this meeting, Kinchen
said Hezbollah’s External Security Organization (ESO), a quasi-military
structure that operates outside Lebanon’s borders, is “a terrorist cell
according to British law.”
The UK broke off relations with Hezbollah after Hariri’s assassination, and they
remained cool following the assassination of “terrorist” mastermind Imad
Mughniyeh in Damascus in 2008.
In early 2009, the UK initiated a series of low-level contacts with Hezbollah.
Foreign Secretary David Miliband acknowledged in March that the group is
represented in parliament and announced that his government would pursue
engagement with its political wing.
The Foreign Office said Britain reconsidered its stance “in light of more
positive recent political developments in Lebanon, including the formation of
the national unity government in which Hezbollah is participating.”
The statement added that Britain’s engagement with Hezbollah was intended to
encourage the party to “move away from violence and play a constructive,
democratic and peaceful role in Lebanese politics, in line with a range of UN
Security Council resolutions.”
Waddah Sharara, sociology professor at the Lebanese University and columnist
with the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat, told NOW Lebanon that the apparent policy
change is merely a diplomatic tool the UK is using to entice Hezbollah to give
up its military agenda and instead adopt a purely political one.
“The two sides are working for two opposing goals. The UK wants to bring
Hezbollah into a political process so that it eventually gives up its weapons,”
he said. Hezbollah, on the other hand, is trying to score points to promote its
international legitimacy and popularity.
The division between Hezbollah’s political and military wings, to which Miliband
referred, is “purely functional and not ideological,” Sharara said. A clear,
genuine reply by Hezbollah would mean having to explain that the two structures
are actually one and the same. What Hezbollah chose to do, instead, was to
employ dialogue to gain the benefits of international recognition, Sharara said.
Hezbollah also engaged in talks with Britain prior to the elections to encourage
the idea that an opposition victory would strengthen Lebanon’s international
relations, he said.
The talks with Britain may not have resulted in any international ‘carrots’ for
Hezbollah but they certainly gave it leeway to play the political and media
game. Indeed Hezbollah had an organized campaign suggesting its victory would
attract investment and foster ties with international groups, such as the IMF.
Given the Hezbollah-dominated March 8 coalition lost the elections, why did
Ambassador Guy meet with Raad? “Losing the elections does not make the group
less harsh,” said Sharara.
UK to disarm Hezbollah?
According to Sharara, UK officials insist that their relationship with Hezbollah
is far from cozy. “After meeting Raad and touring the South, Guy said that
Hezbollah is not sticking to UN Resolution 1701 and that it is increasing the
number of its weapons,” he said.
If the aim of Britain’s engagement with Hezbollah is to disarm it or to hold it
accountable, it will not achieve its goal, according to Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a
Hezbollah expert and assistant professor of political science at the Lebanese
American University.
“If the British government aims to tame the other side and get it to make
concessions [by] simply talking to it… it won’t get the Western power anywhere
because the other side, be it Iran or Hezbollah or to a lesser extent Syria,
does not see it as a quid-pro-quo process,” she said.
Shehadi said the UK has no such ambition because it is not engaging Hezbollah as
a separate entity to the Lebanese government. “Britain was a sponsor of UN
Resolution 1559, along with France, Saudi Arabia and the US. The British
understand what decommissioning means because of their experience in Northern
Ireland. Disarming Hezbollah is part of the UN resolution, which calls on the
Lebanese government to do it, not the British government,” he said.
While the UK may have been inspired by the Obama administration’s openness
toward Syria and Iran, Ghorayeb argues instead that the aftermath of the May 7
clashes, the Doha Accord and the speculation that Hezbollah was going to win the
parliamentary elections influenced British foreign policy.
“It was motivated in large part by a growing realization that Hezbollah was not
only a resistance movement but also a very influential political force on the
ground in Lebanon, one which any Western power that wants influence in Lebanon
and the region, has to coexist with,” he said.
According to Shehadi, the UK recognizes the Lebanese government in which
Hezbollah participates and consequently it is unlikely to object to talking to
Hezbollah members of parliament.
When contacted by NOW Lebanon, the British embassy in Beirut reiterated the
Foreign Office’s distinction between Hezbollah’s political and military wings to
justify its decision to talk to Hezbollah MPs.
Hezbollah officials were not available to comment on recent developments.
Senior British officials told the Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper last week that London
has been talking to Hezbollah for a long time however the talks have not
produced any significant breakthroughs in the past.
This, according to Sharara, is diplomacy, pure and simple. “The UK does not
close the door on any group that may at one point change its stance or that can
deliver messages to other political players,” he said.
What’s the point?
After meeting with Guy, Raad told the press that the door was open for future
talks, although he did not say what these talks may yield. Nearly nine years
after Ambassador Kinchen met Hassan Nasrallah, neither side has made any
tangible gains through the negotiations.
“Saying talks haven’t reached anywhere, is assuming that they have certain
goals, whereas in reality they are part of a normal diplomatic procedure, which
stopped for a while after Hariri died. There was never a policy to boycott
Hezbollah or an official engagement strategy; it’s just that contacts stopped,”
said Shehadi.
Sharara disagrees, saying that the recent opening of diplomatic channels
suggests the UK is playing a more active role in trying to tame Hezbollah’s
military might. “This will probably not happen, at least not in the foreseeable
future,” he said.
Iran sparks new row with Britain over election
By Fredrik Dahl
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has detained several local British embassy staff,
sparking a new row with Britain on Sunday that underscored the hardline
leadership's effort to blame post-election unrest on foreign powers, not popular
anger.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband demanded the release of all the
staffers still held and said his European Union colleagues had agreed to a
"strong, collective response" to any such "harassment and intimidation" against
EU missions.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced what he called "interfering
statements" by Western officials following Iran's disputed presidential
election.
"If the (Iranian) nation and officials are unanimous and united, then the
temptations of international ill-wishers and interfering and cruel politicians
would no longer have an impact," state radio quoted him as saying.
The West and Iran are at odds over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, as
well as its handling of the unrest.
The United States, Britain and their allies have long urged Tehran to abandon
uranium enrichment they suspect is aimed at bomb-making. Iran says its nuclear
aims are entirely peaceful.
Khamenei on June 19 called Britain the "most treacherous" of Iran's enemies,
which he accused of orchestrating the unprecedented outpouring of protest after
the June 12 poll.
The streets of Tehran have sunk back into a sullen calm after riot police and
religious basij militia crushed huge demonstrations in which at least 20 people
were killed.
"Everybody is depressed, everybody is afraid," said one Mousavi voter in his 20s
in northern Tehran.
The authorities, while taking tough action to snuff out any embers of protest,
have repeatedly accused Britain and the United States of inciting the turmoil.
Both countries deny it.
"Eight local employees at the British embassy who had a considerable role in
recent unrest were taken into custody," the semi-official Fars news agency said,
without saying when.
Miliband said about nine employees had been detained, but some had been freed.
"The idea that the British Embassy is somehow behind the demonstrations and
protests that have been taking place in Tehran in recent weeks is wholly without
foundation," he told reporters at a conference in Corfu.
STRAINED TIES
Britain and Iran have already expelled two of each other's diplomats since the
election, which stirred Iran's most striking display of internal dissent since
the 1979 Islamic revolution.
A senior Western diplomat said Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their allies had
achieved a short-term victory and were now determined to press their advantage
over dissenters.
"It is a system which has been challenged and which now strikes back," said the
diplomat, who asked not to be named.
Official results showing hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won re-election
by a landslide were greeted with disbelief by many Iranians who agreed with
complaints by the runner-up, Mirhossein Mousavi, that the vote was rigged.
Mousavi has repeated demands for the election to be rerun, in defiance of
Khamenei who declared the poll fair, but he appears to have dwindling options
for any further challenge.
The Guardian Council, Iran's top legislative body, is to give its final verdict
on the election by Monday.
The 12-man body has offered a partial recount -- rejected by Mousavi and
fellow-candidate Mehdi Karoubi -- but it has already described the poll as the
healthiest since the revolution.
Influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, seen by analysts as a
possible mediator in any effort to defuse the election row, called for a
thorough examination of complaints.
He praised a decision by Khamenei last week to extend a deadline for the
Guardian Council to receive and look into objections by defeated candidates, the
ISNA news agency reported.
"I hope those who are involved in this issue thoroughly and fairly review and
study the legal complaints," Rafsanjani said.
Breaking his post-election silence, he described events after the vote as a
conspiracy by suspicious elements aimed at dividing people and the Islamic
system, and also targeting people's trust in it. "Wherever the people entered
the scene with full alertness, such plots were foiled," the ISNA and IRNA news
agencies quoted him as saying, without elaborating.
Rafsanjani, who has occupied key posts since the founding of the Islamic
Republic, backed Mousavi's election campaign and was fiercely criticized by
Ahmadinejad on television.
Mohsen Rezaie, a conservative candidate who came third in the election, wrote to
the Guardian Council urging it to use its "full authority" to settle the
controversy over the election.
"The country is in dangerous circumstances and the worst possibilities could be
imagined if this trend goes on," he wrote, according to the semi-official Mehr
News Agency.
Rezaie, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, withdrew his own complaints last
week, citing Iran's national interest.
(Additional reporting by Hashem Kalantari in Tehran, David Milliken in London,
Dav0id Brunnstrom in Corfu; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Sophie Hares)
Saad is an Idea and Not a Project
28/06/2009
By Tariq Alhomayed
Asharq Al-Awsat
Since the assassination of his father Rafik al-Hariri and his entry into the
Lebanese political arena, adjectives like "young", "inexperienced", "[foreign]
supported", and "one does not reply to arms with arms" have been associated with
Saad al-Hariri in order to diminish him.
These words were not just issued by his political opponents, and the above
description falls under the category that being wronged by those close to
oneself [is more painful than being stabbed with a sword], according to the Arab
poet. However today, and after approximately 4 years, Saad al-Hariri has become
the Prime Minister of Lebanon.
Saad al-Hariri is not Nabih Berri, and his greatest accomplishment will be to
ensure that parliament remains open over the next four years. Saad al-Hariri is
similarly not Michel Aoun, who craves power, or Hassan Nasrallah, the religious
figure who receives his inspiration from Tehran.
Saad al-Hariri is not a political project, but an idea. He arrived at a time
when the Syrian occupiers were withdrawing from Lebanon, and he entered the
political arena at a time when a large wave of political assassinations were
taking place throughout the country. Lebanon did not get over this wave [of
assassinations] until the country became embroiled in a new adventure. This was
Bin Nasrallah's adventure in the summer of 2006 that resulted in the Israeli war
that destroyed Lebanon, and from which [Hezbollah] emerge with international and
Arab political and financial support. However the crises in Lebanon did not end
here, and the country and Saad al-Hariri found themselves in even more trouble.
Saad al-Hariri found himself, his allies, and his community under a new
occupation when Hezbollah occupied Beirut. Saad a-Hariri, found himself, along
with the rest of Beirut, under siege, and people were saying "Didn't we tell you
that he was inexperienced and lacked courage. Where are his arms and his money
[now]? Where are his allies, since nobody has come to rescue him or us? This
would never have happened if [his father] Rafik al-Hariri was here." However
those who said this forgot that Rafik al-Hariri was killed treacherously, and
that the same will happen to all those who follow his [political] trend.
Saad al-Hariri emerged from under this occupation stronger, calmer and more
determined than before. I asked him "People are saying, where are your weapons?
Where are your men? How could you allow Bin Nasrallah to do what he did [and
occupy Beirut?"
He answered "(At First) they attacked me because I armed (My People), and
arrived with a militia, but after Beirut was occupied they attacked me for not
having weapons." Al-Hariri said "Hear me well, I will not arm, and I will not
use weapons, my project is nation-building, not militia-building" adding "I made
my pledge at the International Tribunal, and I have fulfilled this, and my
battle now is to build a nation."
Today building a nation is Saad al-Hariri's project, and he is Prime Minister
[of Lebanon] and the undisputed majority leader. However al-Hariri comes to
office at a time when his country and the entire region are at a historic
crossroads - as he himself said yesterday - for Iran is preoccupied [with
internal affairs], a large portion of the lies and deception in our region has
been uncovered, and Lebanon is approaching the end of the International
Tribunal.
We are also closer to reaching peace [in the region] and we have witnessed
significant change in the web of alliances at the national level, not to mention
changes in the alliances of organizations and militias. The best thing today is
that the [political] game is now taking place in the open; however unfortunately
timidity is not one of the rules of this game.
Therefore what is important with regards to Saad al-Hariri becoming Prime
Minster is not one group triumphing over another, but the triumph of Saad
al-Hariri's idea, namely the idea of building a nation.
Iran’s Demonstrations: Imperfect Revolution
27/06/2009
By Diana Mukkaled
Asharq Al-Awsat
The live, distressing images of the shooting of the young Iranian woman Nada
Soltan during the Tehran demonstrations, and the minutes in which she breathed
her last as her father screamed hysterically in shock, further consolidated the
role of alternative media – the use of mobile phones and the internet – during
the current situation in Iran after the authorities violently blocked local and
international media coverage.
Nada, whose family was prevented from holding a memorial service for her, became
a symbol of what is now known as Iran’s green revolution, which has been
disrupting the country since the results of the recent presidential elections
were announced. The world is now relying on mobile phones and small cameras to
learn Iran’s news.
It is true that shocking scenes such as the scene of Nada’s death, clashes, and
arrests in Iran that have been transmitted via mobile phones and the internet
have further consolidated the idea that the regime has failed to control modern
means of communication. However, it also suggests a new dilemma that concerns
the limits and comprehensiveness of such coverage.
The mobile phone revolution in Iran firstly transmitted images of oppression and
blatant targeting.
Is there more to it?
It would be an exaggeration to say that the policies of restriction and
prohibition to which the Iranian press has been subjected have not been fruitful
and that the scenes that have been shown are a slap in the face for the Iranian
regime.
I believe that these scenes are a slap in the regime’s face, but at the same
time this slap will not paralyse the regime or even prevent it from mounting
more pressure and exercising more restrictions, as the space that is still
available to conventional forms of communication are capable of covering much
more than mobile snapshots can cover regardless of the international impact they
have had.
What the information technology breakthrough managed to transmit were the
moments the crisis exploded such as the murder of young Nada and the clashes
that took place during demonstrations. Whereas the complete picture of the
Iranian scene could not be broadcast via mobile phones and small cameras. This
is where the oppression succeeded.
We can see Nada as she is murdered, but the fact that the authorities prohibited
her family from holding a memorial service means that her entire family is under
tight surveillance. We cannot see where Nada lived, nor can we know what she
used to dream about or what she was thinking the moment she took to the streets.
The images showed us demonstrators escaping from cudgels but do not show us
where they escaped to and do not answer questions like what will they do
tomorrow? Who are they? What really happened to them?
The limitation of images sent by mobile phones causes confusion. When news is
delivered by an individual or group it cannot be verified, and this causes
problems in covering Iran.
For instance, there is a vital need to be accurate about what the opposition
says with regards to vote rigging. The media blackout has also hampered this and
mobile phone cameras will not be able to monitor this. In conclusion, despite
the extreme importance of new means of communication, conventional media is also
a necessity.
Iran: A Rift that Cannot be Healed
26/06/2009
By Amir Taheri
Asharq Al-Awsat
Whatever the outcome of the current power struggle in Tehran, one thing is
certain: the ruling establishment is split down the middle, with little
possibility of reconciliation in the near future.
One could see the split in all the constituencies that together form the
Khomeinist establishment.
The politically active segment of the Shiite clergy is split, with some senior
mullahs like Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Abdul-Karim Mousavi Ardebili, and Yousef
Sanei, siding with the opposition.
On the other hand, other senior mullahs such as Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi,
Ahmad Jannati, and Ahmad Khatami support the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei who
has emerged as the regime's field commander.
The military are equally split.
Some, like Defense Minister General Mostafa Muhammad Najjar and Interior
Minister General Sadeq Mahsouli have sided with Khamenei's new hard-line stance.
Others like Admiral Ali Shamkhani, a former defense minister, and General Yahya
Rahim Safavi, a former Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
have indicated support for the opposition.
The split in the IRGC may be deeper than many suspect.
According to unconfirmed reports, at least 17 mid-ranking IRGC officers have
been relieved of their posts. A senior commander, General Ali Fazli, who led the
elite "Master of the Martyrs' Division", has been "reassigned" after refusing to
order troops to crush the demonstrators.
The position of General Muhammad-Ali Jaafari, the IRGC's Commander, remains an
enigma. Although promoted under Ahmadinejad, he has, on occasions, indicated
unhappiness with the president's style, if not the substance of policies.
General Hassan Firuzabadi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and the country's
most senior military figure, has also tried to remain neutral, although some
claim that his sympathies lie with the opposition.
Among senior technocrats, some like former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati,
have rallied to the "Supreme Guide" without ifs and buts. Others like Gholam-Reza
Aghazadeh, who heads the nuclear project, and former Foreign Minister Kamaleddin
Kharrazi, have indicated support for the opposition. Deputy Oil Minister Akbar
Torkan has just been dismissed because of suspected sympathies for the
opposition.
Other influential figures such as General Muhammad-Baqer Qalibaf, the Mayor of
Tehran, and Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Islamic Majlis, Iran's ersatz
parliament, have tried to sit on the fence, making noises in support of the
opposition one day and professing loyalty to the "Supreme Guide" the next.
The current showdown has also divided Iran's academic elite.
More than 400 university professors and faculty deans have resigned in protest
against the alleged rigging of the election.
In contrast, hundreds of academics have rallied behind Ahmadinejad and condemned
Mousavi for "doing the work of the enemies of the regime."
The merchant class of the bazaars, a mainstay of the Khomeinist regime,
is also split between supporters and opponents of the regime.
In recent days, rival appeals have been published for the bazaar to shut down in
protest at the election results or to celebrate Ahmadinejad's "historic
victory."
Initially, some in the West, including some of US President Barack Hussein
Obama's advisors, claimed that the pro-Mousavi’s revolt was little more than an
expression of anger by Iran's upper middle classes and "the golden youth" of
Tehran's wealthy districts. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Today, the two camps are present throughout Iranian society, cutting across
class, regional, and age boundaries. Mousavi enjoys much support among both the
rural and urban poor while Ahmadinejad has partisans among the rich even in the
posh districts of Tehran.
It would be interesting to see what happens when some of the key organs of the
regime hold their next meetings.
Take the High Council of National Defense. Both Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are
ex-officio members along with other players such as former presidents Hashemi
Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. One half might side with Mousavi, the other
half with Ahmadinejad.
Then we have the pompously named Council for the Discernment of the Interests of
the Established Order, or the Expediency Council for short. It is headed by
Rafsanjani, with General Mohsen Rezai Mir-Qaed, one of the three defeated
presidential candidates, as secretary-general.
And, yet, at least half of the council's members have expressed support for
Ahmadinejad.
A similar situation exists in the Assembly of Experts, a 92-mullah organ whose
task is to supervise the work of the "Supreme Guide." Rafsanjani, now regarded
as a key figure of the opposition, chairs the assembly. Legally speaking, the
assembly has the power to impeach Khamenei and dismiss him as "Supreme Guide".
However, that would require a two-third majority that Rafsanjani is not able to
produce at this time.
The split in the Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament, is even more glaring.
According to some estimates, a third of the members tilt towards Mousavi with
another third favoring Ahmadinejad. The remaining third belongs to the "party of
the wind", siding with whoever may seem to be winning.
Within the Council of Ministers, headed by Ahmadinejad, at least four men are
believed to be sympathetic to the opposition, and thus likely to be purged in
the coming reshuffle.
Many of the more charismatic figures of the Khomeinist movement broke with it
long ago. Among them is former Interior Minister Abdallah Nuri, a mid-ranking
cleric, who was a favorite of the late Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini. Nuri is now
regarded as the most senior ex-Khomeinist to support regime change in Iran.
The split also extends into the leading families associated with Khomeinism.
One of Khomeini's granddaughters has emerged as a passionaria for the Mousavi
camp. On the other hand, a grandson of the late ayatollah is a propagandist for
Ahmadinejad.
Khamenei's eldest son Mujtaba has become an ardent advocate of Ahmadinejad,
touring the country to mobilize support for him. On the other hand, Khamenei's
brother, Hadi, is a supporter of Mehdi Karroubi, one of the defeated
presidential candidates, and a vocal opponent of Ahmadinejad.
The 12 June presidential election forced the various rival factions of the
regime into two broad camps.
Under different circumstances, this might have evolved into a two-party system,
allowing rival factions to alternate by forming the government.
Mousavi might have been allowed to win and form a new administration. Such an
outcome would have provided a rather discredited regime with new legitimacy
through elections. The system would have remained intact with the defeated
faction preserving its chances of returning to power in future elections. Those
chances would have been all the stronger because the system does not allow
"outsiders" to stand for election.
Now, however, all that we could expect is a bloody showdown at the end of which
the winner will launch a massive purge at all levels. In the Khomeinist system,
there is no room for compromise, whether at home or in the field of foreign
policy.
**Amir Taheri's new book " The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist
Revolution" is published by Encounter Books in New York and London.
Whither Iran?
By: Amir Taheri
New York Post | Friday, June 26, 2009
As Iranians mark another day of mourning for demonstrators killed by the
Islamist forces last week, protest-movement leaders are engaged in
behind-the-scenes debates over strategy.
Pointing to the diminishing size of the protest crowds in Tehran, some
Khomeinist-regime apologists have already concluded that the protest movement is
fizzling out.
In fact, the movement has won a major victory by ending the myth that the regime
controls "the street" through "the popular masses." The last 12 days have shown
that the opposition can produce larger, more determined crowds. The only way the
regime can regain control of "the street" is by deploying security forces in a
de facto state of emergency.
A regime that used crowds as a means of political communication is now afraid of
crowds.
That fear was manifest yesterday, when the authorities cancelled a demonstration
they'd ordered against alleged British intervention in Iranian affairs. Fears
that the opposition might exploit the rent-a-mob gathering as cover for its own
demonstration persuaded the regime to scrap the exercise.
"We know that we can have the streets whenever we want," says an adviser to Mir
Hussein Mousavi, the former prime minister who challenged President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in the disputed June 12 presidential election. "The question is:
Where do we go from here?"
Broadly speaking, three competing strategies are emerging within the opposition.
Mousavi has adopted a minimalist approach, modeled on the 1980s strategy of
Polish trade-union leader Lech Walesa. This consists of making a single demand
within the constitution -- a demand that, if granted, could alter the rules of
the game.
Mousavi is calling for fresh elections. This demand enjoys wide support across
the political spectrum. Even some Ahmadinejad supporters say they might go along
with a rerun so that their standard-bearer could win with an even greater
majority.
The regime has refused to consider a rerun. Yet the option could remain on the
table for some time. The Council of the Guardians of the Constitution, a 12-man
body that must approve the election results, has just asked for five more days
to endorse Ahmadinejad's victory. And "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei must also
issue an edict appointing Ahmadinejad before the new presidential term starts in
August. In short, the rerun option will remain alive for some time.
One possibility is for Ahmadinejad himself to ask for a rerun in a bid to
prevent greater bloodshed. Or he might resign soon after starting his second
term, in a show of defiance against the opposition.
For that to happen, the opposition must keep up the pressure while deepening the
split in the Khomeinist establishment.
It's also important that major foreign powers refuse to legitimize a second
Ahmadinejad mandate. The prospect of greater international isolation could
persuade more establishment figures to join the call for fresh elections.
Former President Muhammad Khatami, a mid-ranking mullah and a close adviser to
Mousavi, shares the analysis. He, too, has warned against adopting a strategy
aimed at straight regime change.
But not everyone in this very diverse opposition movement agrees. Mehdi Karrubi,
a mid-ranking mullah and another of the three candidates that Ahmadinejad claims
to have defeated, insists that the opposition must offer a broader agenda.
Karrubi has broken what was perhaps the biggest political taboo in the
Khomeinist system by questioning the validity of Khamenei's appointment as
"supreme guide" in 1989. He wants not just fresh presidential elections, but a
rerun of the procedure that propelled Khamenei to the summit of power.
Karrubi is also offering greater autonomy for ethnic minorities, laws to prevent
the armed forces from intervening in politics and constitutional amendments to
emphasize the republican aspect of the regime against its religious character.
The third well-known opposition figure is former President Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, whom Ahmadinejad has denounced as a Mafia-style "godfather" leading
networks of corruption and illicit business deals. According to his entourage,
Rafsanjani is "mad with rage against Ahmadinejad" and working hard to prevent
the re-elected president from completing his second four-year term.
Rafsanjani and Mousavi were bitter political enemies in the 1980s. In 1989,
Rafsanjani, allying himself with Khamenei, engineered constitutional changes
that abolished the post of prime minister and sent Mousavi into 20 years of
political desert.
Now, however, the two are said to be as thick as thieves, determined to return
to power. Nevertheless, Rafsanjani believes that Mousavi's minimalist strategy
will lead into an impasse: The regime may blow hot and cold, as it has for the
last 10 days, until it regains control.
Rafsanjani's strategy is aimed at forming a transitional authority backed by the
grand ayatollahs of Qom. Once that authority is in place, the Assembly of
Experts, a 92-mullah organ that has the power to impeach and dismiss the
"supreme guide," could be used as a threat to Khamenei, forcing him to cooperate
or risk losing his job.
In short, Mousavi aims at power-sharing arrangements in which Khamenei and his
supporters would remain a major part of the ruling elite. For their parts,
Karrubi and Rafsanjani believe that for the opposition to gain power, Khamenei
must be either marginalized or booted out.
The imponderable in all this is the attitude of the Iranian people. No one knows
which of these strategies, if any, might mobilize their energies.