LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 19/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 15:26-27.16:1-4. When the Advocate comes whom I will send you from the Father, the Spirit of truth that proceeds from the Father, he will testify to me. And you also testify, because you have been with me from the beginning. I have told you this so that you may not fall away. They will expel you from the synagogues; in fact, the hour is coming when everyone who kills you will think he is offering worship to God. They will do this because they have not known either the Father or me. I have told you this so that when their hour comes you may remember that I told you. "I did not tell you this from the beginning, because I was with you.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Bin Nasrallah and the Two Camps Address.By: Tariq Alhomayed 18/05/09
Lebanon: Shia leader issues fatwa to prevent election bribery/AKI 18/05/09
Hezbollah’s Road to Victory in Lebanon’s June 7 Parliamentary Elections.By:Webster Brooks 18/05/09
Middle East Experts Call on the Obama Administration to Press for Democracy and Reforms in the Middle Eas/Family Security Matters 18/05/09
Hezbollah win could shake Obama Mideast policy-By Cal Perry/CNN 18/05/09
Erdogan is under fire for policies, while Lebanese leaders simply fan fires-The Daily Star 18/05/09
The distorted image of Resistance/Future News 18/05/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 18/09-Naharnet
Aoun: I Understand Nasrallah's Rhetoric; Cabinet Committed a Great Foolishness on May 5-Naharnet
Jumblat: Reluctance to Extradite Fugitive Raises Doubts on Syria's 'Good Intentions-Naharnet
Franjieh Accuses President of Meddling in Elections-Naharnet
Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command Visits Beirut-Naharnet
Barak f orcing Iran expert Lubrani out-Jerusalem Post
Kerry: Lebanon Not a Bargaining Chip-Naharnet
'Netanyahu, Obama to focus on Iran/Jerusalem Post
Shin Bet warns terror groups trying to recruit Israelis online/Israeli News
Cairo Suspects Hizbullah-Muslim Brotherhood Cooperation-Naharnet
Joint armed patrols between Hizbullah and the Aounists-Future News
Fatfat: March 8 wants to topple Sleiman-Future News
Alloush: Nasrallah’s problem, with the Lebanese entity/Future News
May 7 foolishness…and Abu Jamra colors the sky in orange-Future News
Sleiman angry at March 8 mud-slinging-Future News
More Arrests as Rifi Says Israeli Spy Networks Infrastructure Hit Hard-Naharnet
Kenaan Accused of Lying in Convoy Attack Case, One Arrested-Naharnet
Raad: Crackdown on Spy Rings Proves Lebanon's Immunity-Naharnet
March 14 Unveils Zahle Ticket-Naharnet
Saniora: Recent Speeches Contradict Doha Agreement; Israel Is the Real Enemy-Naharnet
Opposition Announces Beirut 3 Ticket that Includes 10 Contenders-Naharnet
Franjieh Accuses President of Meddling in Elections-Naharnet
Lebanese Math Professor Escapes Across Border Into Israel-Naharnet
Kesrouan List to be Announced Tuesday-Naharnet
Netanyahu in US for talks amid rift on two-state solution-(AFP)
Turkish president convinced of Syria's desire for Mideast peace-Daily Star
Leading SOLIDE activist dies in accident-Daily Star
Rival coalitions unveil tickets for Zahle, Beirut III districts-Daily Star
Fadlallah says Lebanon has become 'center' for spies-Daily Star
Nasrallah remarks on May 7 events draw ire of March 14 officials-Daily Star
Sayyed willing to become Justice Minister-Daily Star
UNIFIL says Israeli drills purely defensive-Daily Star
Sfeir says alternating power is best for democracy-Daily Star
Funding crisis threatens to slow demining-By IRIN News.org
Rock star, fisherman bid for Lebanon's election race-(AFP)
Don't expect public diplomacy from Syria, top analyst says-Jerusalem Post
Journalists' safety affected by political tensions-Daily Star
Israel's immoral army-GulfNews
Beirut markets see calm after week-long surge in trading-Daily Star
Shatah slams blocking third-Daily Star
Kuwaiti women win 4 seats in parliamentary election-Daily Star
Israeli nuclear program 'real danger' in Mideast - Moussa-(AFP)

Leading SOLIDE activist dies in accident
Daily Star staff
Monday, May 18, 2009
BEIRUT: A key figure calling for a state investigation into the 17,000 people who disappeared in Lebanon's 1975-1990 Civil War died on Saturday in an accident. Audette Salem's two children Mary-Christine and Richard were abducted in September 1985. As part of a call for an investigation into the "disappeared" organized by the organization SOLIDE, Salem spent the last four years in a protest tent outside the ESCWA headquarters in Beirut. Salem, born in 1931, was crossing the road leading to the tent at 9 a.m. when a taxi hit her, SOLIDE member Michel Naji Aoun told The Daily Star on Sunday. Prayers will be held at 3 p.m. Tuesday at the tent. Her funeral will be held at 5 p.m. Tuesday at the Saydit al-Nahr church in Bourj Hammoud. Condolences can be paid from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. at the tent throughout the week. - The Daily Star

Kerry: Lebanon Not a Bargaining Chip
Naharnet/U.S. Senator John Kerry stressed that Lebanon is not a bargaining chip and said the U.S. would only deal with a disarmed Hizbullah that recognizes Israel's right to exist.
"Lebanon is not a bargaining chip. It is a free and democratic country… In all my talks with (Syrian) President (Bashar) Assad I said clearly that there is a need to take hands off Lebanon," Kerry told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat in an interview published Monday. "Under all circumstances and any circumstance this will never happen," he said about reports that the U.S. will compromise Lebanon at the expense of Syria. "Lebanon should be able to hold impartial elections freely and independently," said the chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Asked if the U.S. would recognize a government led by Hizbullah if the party wins the elections, Kerry said: "I don't know what the president would decide in light of the results. Let the elections speak for themselves." "Let's take things step by step," the Senator said. He told al-Hayat the Obama administration made it clear that the U.S. wants democracy and not terrorism in Lebanon. On Hizbullah's arms, the Senator said that the U.S. would work with the party if it hands over its arms, rejects violence, works within the country's democratic system and recognizes Israel. "They have to be ready at some stage to recognize Israel's right to exist," Kerry said when asked if recognizing Israel is a U.S. condition in case Hizbullah wins the June 7 parliamentary elections. Beirut, 18 May 09, 08:04

Cairo Suspects Hizbullah-Muslim Brotherhood Cooperation
Naharnet/An official from Egypt's ruling party Jihad Awdeh uncovered that elements of the Muslim Brotherhood were members in the so-called Hizbullah cell that was arrested in Cairo recently. Awdeh accused the Muslim Brotherhood of involvement in the distribution of currency that carried Hizbullah emblem: "Hizbullah – People of the House."
Meanwhile, Egyptian MP Mohammed Mustafa Shardi warned that there are groups promoting Hizbullah's currency. "There are those who are involved in the distribution of currencies of one, five and ten pounds in the Port Said district inscribed with the phrase: "Hizbullah, People of the House." He said these currencies are frequently traded in the hands of ordinary people and accused Hizbullah of attempting to "play a political game" through the formation of groups to attack Sunnis through the distribution of money to the naïve."Egypt's High State Security Prosecution has reportedly confronted 14 officials of the Muslim Brotherhood after keeping close watch over them following Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's Ashoura speech in which he called on the Egyptian army to rebel against the Cairo regime. The detainees, however, denied any link or collaboration with Hizbullah, read a report by the daily Al Mustaqbal correspondent in Cairo. The 14 men, headed by member of the Guidance Bureau Ossama Nasser, were surprised by the charge of restructuring the international branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, according to the report. Beirut, 18 May 09, 11:38

Barak forcing Iran expert Lubrani out
By YAAKOV KATZ
Jerusalem Post
After a career spanning half a century, longtime Defense Ministry official and Iran expert Uri Lubrani appears to be on his way into forced retirement over power struggles with the Mossad.
Lubrani, 81, has served in a wide range of positions since joining the government in the 1950s. He was Israel's ambassador to Uganda and Iran and was the coordinator of government activities in Lebanon during Israel's 18-year presence in the security zone.
Senior defense officials told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that power struggles between the Defense Ministry and the Mossad have led to a decision by Defense Minister Ehud Barak to close down Lubrani's office, which includes him and several assistants.
One assistant, I. - a former department chief in the Mossad - was informed last week that his contract would not be extended. The officials said that Lubrani would likely leave his office by the end of the summer. "At a time when Israel is working to stop Iran's nuclear program it is unfortunate that Lubrani is being forced out," explained one close associate. "He is one of the country's foremost experts on Iran and is one of the only people who warned about what was happening in Iran before the nuclear program picked up steam."
Lubrani, who has been a longtime proponent of investing in Iranian dissident groups and regime change, apparently angered the Mossad by dealing with matters over which the spy agency felt it had exclusivity. After receiving complaints from the Mossad, Barak appointed his chief of staff Brig.-Gen. Mike Herzog earlier this year to evaluate Lubrani's importance. Herzog, officials said, recommended closing Lubrani's office and Barak is expected to make a decision in the coming weeks.
Barak's office released a statement saying that "Lubrani would continue to serve as an adviser to the defense minister, and that positions in his unit would undergo review in light of the geo-strategic changes in the region." In addition to maintaining contacts with Iranian dissidents, Lubrani was also one of the key supporters of Israel Radio's Persian Service, which could be closed if the Prime Minister's Office does not transfer NIS 1 million to Bezeq for a new antenna in the coming weeks.
The radio service is Israel's only line of communication with the Iranian people. Its broadcaster is Menashe Amir, one of Israel's leading experts on Iran.
"Israeli policy is not to speak to Iran, but it is important to speak to the people so they can get a different understanding of events that are happening in the world," one government official familiar with the service's possible closure said. "This is a funding issue that if not solved will cut off Israel's conduit to the Iranian people," the official said. The radio broadcasts are transmitted to Los Angeles, where they are then diverted to Iran. They are believed to have been listened to by millions of Iranians daily for almost 50 years.

Joint armed patrols between Hizbullah and the Aounists
Date: May 18th, 2009 /Future News
It seems that the pro-Iranian Hizbullah party has expanded its control of his so-called security zone in the southern suburbs to the Hadath area, to the southeast, witnesses and in inhabitants of that area said. The reports of those inhabitants are based on the fact that they have been spotting Hizbullah jeeps patrolling their neighborhoods round-the-clock recently without any explanation from the party. One witness of what he described a black Cherokee jeep with black filmed windows opened to half said he had seen the cars in Haret Hreik, another area under Hizbullah’s control. He refused his name be reported for fear of repercussion from Hizbullah’s secret agents.
Another witness, also speaking on condition of anonymity said he could identify one of the four passengers in the Hizbullah jeep as George Aoun, an official at Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic movement. It appears that these joint patrols come in the framework of the agreement between Hizbullah and the FPM before the crucial parliamentary elections to prevent any violence against their supporters or electoral offices. The Hizbullah militant grouping had carried out similar patrols of observation and surveillance in Beirut two weeks before they launched their aggression against Sunni peaceful neighborhoods May 7 of last year.

Alloush: Nasrallah’s problem, with the Lebanese entity
Date: May 17th, 2009 /Future News
Moustafa Alloush, of the parliamentarian Almustaqbal bloc, commented Sunday on the speech of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah saying that the problem lies between Nasrallah and the Lebanese entity, and not between the Sunni and the Shiites factions. Alloush told OTV: “The problem lies between Nasrallah and Lebanon as a whole and not between the Sunni and the Shiite muslim factions. “Nasrallah’s rhetoric paves way for a new civil war.”Alloush added: “The wavering Syrian-American and the Iranian-American negotiations initiated Nasrallah’s tension, because Hizbullah is not an independent Lebanese party but is linked to the Iranian Wilayat al-Fakih on the one hand and the Syrian axis on the other.”

Attacks on Sleiman ‘aim to destabilize Lebanon’
Date: May 18th, 2009 /Future News
Youssef El-Dweihi, a candidate for one of the two Maronite seats in the Zgharta district, said Monday that slander campaigns against President Michel Sleiman are intended to destabilize Lebanon before the June 7 parliamentary elections. “The verbal attacks on President Michel Sleiman are only aimed at disrupting the country,” Dweihi said in a television interview with Almustaqbal. Of the May 7, 2008, attacks on Sunni neighborhoods in West Beirut by Hizbullah and its allies, he said: “The assaults were guerilla acts that only brought destruction down on the country … Hizbullah does not intimidate us or anybody else.”Hezbollah-led fighters wrested control of several neighborhoods from Future Movement militiamen loyal to the government. Eleven people were killed and 30 wounded in the street battles. “Hizbullah’s image as a resistance party was distorted by 2008,” Dweihi said, branding the Shiite movement as “an internal group linked to a regional project, disapproved by Lebanon as a whole” – an apparent reference to its links with Tehran. “The party cannot take exclusive decisions concerning Lebanon, particularly because it has always reiterated its allegiance to Vilayat-e Faqih,” the Iranian form of clerical rule.

The distorted image of Resistance
Date: May 18th, 2009 /Future News
There was nothing to unveil the true face of resistance more than the shame it brought upon itself in May 7, 2008 when it turned its arms at the Lebanese who provided it with all sorts of support. It was the resistance which had disgraced itself when it wiped its past splendor of defending the country against the Israeli enemy, by invading the peaceful Lebanese neighborhoods in a simulation to what enemies usually do.Glory is much more than the instant ecstasy derived from the pleasure of defeating unarmed civilians.
What Hizbullah’s Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said lately about the glory of May 7 marks a line that separates two stages: before and after his infamous speech.
By bragging about killing unarmed citizens and destroying peaceful Lebanese neighborhoods, Nasrallah unveiled his true intention which is to rule the country by force and not through democratic means. What the resistance leader wants is to tame and subdue the President of the republic, the army, the security forces, the Cabinet and the parliament by resorting to militias that resemble the Iranian Bassige and Pasdaran. Yet, Beirut that forced the Israeli soldiers to beg for their safe return in 1982 would never yield to any invader no matter under what title he comes. Beirut will never give in to any aggressor who reminds it of the words uttered by Michel Aoun upon declaring what he called the “War for Liberation” which had only resulted in the death of innocent people: “Beirut was destroyed seven times, let it be the eighth”.

Bin Nasrallah and the Two Camps Address
17/05/2009
By Tariq Alhomayed
Asharq Al-Awsat
The speech delivered by the Hezbollah chief is very similar to a speech given by Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden [following the 9/11 attacks] in which he divided the world into two camps [the faithful and the infidels]. Bin Nasrallah similarly divided Lebanon into two camps; one camp comprised of his own party, and the other comprised of everybody else who stands against his [political] schemes.
[In his speech] Bin Nasrallah recalled what he described as the "stupidity" of 5th of May [when the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle the Hezbollah communicated network]. Bin Nasrallah threatened them [the second camp] with a day similar to 7 May when Beirut was occupied [by Hezbollah in response to the government's actions]. Nasrallah described this day as a "glorious day of the resistance" however this is the same day that the Sunni population of Beirut were badly mistreated [by Hezbollah]. Indeed Nasrallah did not stop at this, but attempted to justify the 7 May coup by saying that the [governmental] Ministers were planning a sectarian war in Beirut, and that on 5 May there was increased communication [between the government] and Saudi Arabia and Egypt to implement this; however this plan was prevented by Hezbollah mobilizing and moving on Beirut.
The meaning behind Bin Nasrallah's words is that Sunni states, specifically Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have designs against the Shiite population of Lebanon, and therefore Bin Nasrallah is acting as their protector, despite his attempts in this crude speech to appear non-sectarian. Indeed it is enough that he described 7 May as a glorious day.
Bin Nasrallah's speech – in which he announced the forthcoming proclamation of a Lebanese Hezbollah state – is also very similar to a speech given last Tuesday in Iran by [Grand Ayatollah] Ali Khamenei; however Bin Nasrallah's speech was given in his own format and direction. It seems that Khamenei's speech will be the watchword of the coming period in our region. In the city of Sanandaj – the capital of the Iranian province of Kurdistan – Khamenei said that the Salafists and Wahabis are mercenaries, possessors of an errant ideology, and agent's of the enemies of the Muslim Ummah [international community], seeking to divide it.
Without a doubt, Bin Nasrallah built upon Khamenei's words when he said that the Lebanese ministers – in communication with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France and the US – were planning to ignite a sectarian war. This was an attempt to portray the two largest Arab countries as seeking to destabilize Lebanon by sponsoring and supporting one sect against the other.
In his speech Bin Nasrallah drew the line between two camps; a camp comprised of his own party, and a camp comprised of everybody else, who he has threatened with another day of "glorious resistance." It is striking that the speech delivered by Bin Nasrallah is similar to an election victory speech, although it is far too early for this, unless Hezbollah is facing an [electoral] deadlock on the ground prior to these elections and is therefore attempting to unmask its sectarian side. Bin Nasrallah spoke with clear arrogance, especially when he said that he had the ability to govern a hundred countries like Lebanon, referring to the party's unique ability to rule.
Here the question must be asked: Will Bin Nasrallah – who possesses a large ego and disdain for his opponents which is clear from his threatening language – be able to accept defeat in the forthcoming Lebanese elections? I do not think so! The question then is; with the presence of a man who possesses such egotism, ideology, and principles, what future awaits Lebanon?

Sleiman angry at March 8 mud-slinging
Date: May 18th, 2009 /Okath daily
President Michel Sleiman is angry at “declarations against him by the leadership of the March 8 camp, specifically MP Michel Aoun, leader of the Change and Reform bloc,” the Okath newspaper reported Monday. Quoting unidentified government sources, the daily said that Sleiman viewed these verbal attacks as a deliberate attempt to cause disruption and tension in the final run-up to the June 7 parliamentary elections. Meantime, the Al-Bayrak newspaper quoted visitors to Sleiman’s palace as saying that “he is insisting” that the government appoint the remaining five members of the 10-member Constitutional Council, which has the power to adjudicate election results, and name the director-general for political affairs at the Interior Ministry of Interior as well as provincial governors. These key administrative appointments have been stalled for months because of objections by the March 8 opposition bloc and there has been no sign of the deadlock being broken as the election looms closer. Al-Bayrak said that Sleiman was pressing on this issue “because if the appointments do not take place, it will threaten the honesty and integrity of the elections.”

Shin Bet warns terror groups trying to recruit Israelis online
Security establishment informed of cases in which hostile elements approached Israelis through various social networks to gather intelligence or lure them abroad for purpose of abduction
Hanan Greenberg Published: 05.18.09, 13:49 / Israel News
The Shin Bet security service warned Monday that hostile elements may try to contact Israelis through online social networks, such as Facebook, in order to gather intelligence and may be even lure them abroad for the purpose of abduction. Recently the Shin Bet was informed of a number of cases in which terrorist elements approached Israelis through the various online social networks and tried to either recruit them or ask that they disclose classified information for a fee. Terror organizations have made extensive use of the Internet, mainly for propaganda purposes; but also for the purpose of recruiting activists, transferring funds and posting instructions. The past few years have seen a number of Israelis detained after they had been recruited by terror groups through the Internet. The Shin Bet has also learned that terror elements are specifically looking to approach Israelis who were privy to classified information during their IDF service. One Israeli said he was approached on Facebook by someone who offered him to transfer secret information for a fee. The security establishment has asked that Israelis be vigilant and report any suspicious attempt to approach them online or by phone.

Lebanon: Shia leader issues fatwa to prevent election bribery
Beirut, 18 May (AKI) - A senior Lebanese Shia leader has issued a fatwa or religious edict, aimed at preventing foreign countries from engaging in bribery and financing electoral campaigns, ahead of the country's parliamentary elections in June. "Certain countries finance with their millions, the electoral campaigns of political parties and also corrupt the electorate," said Sayyed Mohammad Fadlallah, often described as the spiritual leader of the Lebanese Shia party Hezbollah. He was quoted by pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi on Monday. In the past few days the Lebanese media has defined the country's electoral campaign as one of the most expensive in the world. Reports have also surfaced about alleged aid provided by Iranians to Hezbollah and by Saudis to the Future Movement, the political party of Saad Hariri, son of the late prime minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in 2005. Hariri's killing triggered a severe political crisis and accelerated the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon after 29 years. The elections are expected to be one of the closely fought in decades and will feature the Hezbollah-led coalition, called the March 8 coalition which opposes the March 14 coalition headed by Hariri's Future Movement. However, according to 73-year-old Fadlallah, the results of the elections will not change much in the country. He said Lebanon's national unity government was based on "consensus democracy." Since Israel launched its military campaign against the Lebanon-based Shia Muslim armed group Hezbollah in 2006, the country has struggled to regain the relative stability it enjoyed after the civil war which divided the country from 1975 to 1990.

More Arrests as Rifi Says Israeli Spy Networks Infrastructure Hit Hard
Naharnet/Police chief Gen. Ashraf Rifi said the infrastructure of the Israeli spy networks in Lebanon was being hit hard amidst reports of new arrests related to the espionage case.
Local media on Monday said police have arrested a man identified as Nasser N. from the southern town of Ghandouriyeh on suspicion of spying for Israel.
They said very sophisticated equipment designed to take photographs and transmit pictures was confiscated from his house. The daily As Safir said the detainee confessed to working for the Israeli Mossad secret service and that he was assigned to monitor the activities of leaders in the resistance. Al Akhbar newspaper said Nader's wife, 40-year-old Nawal from Marjayoun, also was detained, raising to 11 the number of cells arrested on charges of espionage. It said Nader had maintained contact with the Israelis via the internet, adding that he made at least four trips to the Jewish state, one of which across the border in 2006. He also used to travel to Europe with a forged Israeli passport. Meanwhile, preliminary interrogation of former Saadnayel Mayor Ziad Homsi has also revealed that he was involved in Mossad activities. As Safir said Homsi had been under close watch by Lebanese army intelligence for over a year.
It said Homsi, who is currently deputy mayor of Saadnayel, came close to being considered the "most serious suspect" among the Israel-linked spy cells had he been able to continue to be a spy for a longer period. The daily pointed to Homsi's long history of struggle against Israel through his affiliation with several organizations that was effective during the Israeli occupation of Lebanon until Mossad, taking advantage of his financial distress, employed him in 2006. Al Akhbar newspaper, for its turn, quoted security sources on Monday as saying Homsi met his Israeli operators in Thailand. He also visited Israel several times, the sources said, adding that Homsi has increased his travel during the past two years, particularly to Qatar, Jordan, Egypt and Sudan after having visited Thailand, China and New Zealand. In a related development, A Hizbullah official denied a report carried by the daily An Nahar on Sunday in which it quoted senior March 14 sources as saying that three Hizbullah officials were among the first Israel-linked spy network arrested. Beirut, 18 May 09, 09:45

Franjieh Accuses President of Meddling in Elections
Naharnet/Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh accused President Michel Suleiman of interfering in Lebanese parliamentary elections.
Franjieh uncovered that Suleiman has dispatched "more than once" head of the General Security Maj. Gen. Wafiq Jezzini to meet with him in an effort to obtain a share in Kesrouan, Jbeil and Metn districts. Franjieh said Jezzini named parliamentary candidates Mansour al-Bon, Michel Murr, Nehmat Efram, Francois Bassil and Nazem al-Khoury as the president's share.
"We told him (Jezzini) that Nehmat Efram is on our side while the rest (of the candidates) are pro- March 14 (Forces)," Franjieh said in an interview with al-Jadid television late Sunday.
"But I refused to comply with this requirement and I declined to put forth the issue before Gen. Michel Aoun because we do not accept that we give March 14 a majority via the president," he added."We want the president a (real) president. Otherwise, how will we stand by him?" Franjieh asked. "We won't demand the dismissal of the president. However, we will not let him (Suleiman) impose anything on us," he warned. He stressed that if he lost elections, he would be part of the Hizbullah-led opposition. Franjieh said Aoun and him are "complementary," adding that "we as Christians can become more effective if we unite and not work in groups." Beirut, 18 May 09, 07:43

Kesrouan List to be Announced Tuesday
Naharnet/Attempts to form a second ticket in Kesrouan accelerated as former MP Mansour Ghanem al-Bon said from Bkirki that the list will be announced in Sahel Alma Tuesday afternoon. Al-Bon didn't give further details after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir on Monday. A source in the majority had told An Nahar newspaper that the district has been put in the "intensive care unit." Former MP Fares Boueiz also told LBC TV that an official decision will be made on Monday on the announcement of the Kesrouan list the next day.
"The district should have real and not fictitious MPs," he stressed. Boueiz, Farid Haykal al-Khazen and al-Bon visited Sfeir Sunday afternoon as the three men are mulling the formation of a list that also includes National Bloc Party leader Carlos Edde and Phalange candidate Sejaan Azzi. An Nahar said that al-Bon also held a meeting with Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea in Merab on Sunday. Beirut, 18 May 09, 09:54

Lebanese Math Professor Escapes Across Border Into Israel
Naharnet/Lebanese citizen Elie al-Hayek escaped across the southern border into Israel at dawn Monday, a security source told AFP. The source said Hayek is a mathematics professor who is a resident of the border town of Qleiaa. He said Hayek, 49, fled to Israel through a concrete wall between the villages of Rmeish and Yaroun, a few kilometers from the border.
Hayek, who is from Mieh Mieh east of the southern port city of Sidon, is married with three children. It was not clear why Hayek, who suffers from paralysis and walks on crutches, fled.
His escape, however, came following a major police hunt for Israel-linked spies. Reports also surfaced about Hayek's alleged involvement in one of the espionage networks recently arrested in Lebanon. Beirut, 18 May 09, 10:30

Kenaan Accused of Lying in Convoy Attack Case, One Arrested
Naharnet/The clash between the convoy of MP Ibrahim Kenaan and several people led to accusations and counter-accusations.
A security source told al-Liwaa daily that Kenaan's bodyguards opened fire while the MP told al-Manar TV that three supporters of legislator Michel Murr intercepted his convoy while he was leaving the office of Mansouriyeh's mayor. Kenaan added that the men opened fire on his vehicle, but he escaped unharmed after reaching the intersection of the main Mansouriyeh road. Al-Liwaa said that the three men brought a suit against Kenaan for allegedly lying. Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat quoted security sources as saying that Mansouriyeh mayor William Khoury who was arrested after the incident, was released after his police heard his testimony. The sources added that Kenaan said in his lawsuit that he heard four gunshots. One person was held in the case, they said. Al-Manar said police arrested Pierre Akl and Justine and Dany Claut for opening fire on the MP's vehicle. But security sources said one of Kenaan's bodyguards hasn't been handed over to police yet. Beirut, 18 May 09, 11:29

Raad: Crackdown on Spy Rings Proves Lebanon's Immunity
Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad on Sunday lauded the security and army forces for unmasking espionage networks saying the discovery proved Lebanon's "immunity" against Israeli infiltrations. Since April, Lebanon arrested at least 13 individuals suspected of spying for Israel, including a former general in the security service. At a public event in Nabatiyeh, Raad thanked security forces and Army intelligence for their efforts to crackdown on suspected sleeper cells. "What has been and will be uncovered will also confirm that we are immune against infiltration," he said, urging the Lebanese to "remain vigilant." Raad, who heads the Loyalty for the Resistance bloc, said Lebanon must maintain its "strength" in order to safeguard its sovereignty.
He voiced doubt that diplomatic efforts will succeed in achieving a full Israeli withdrawal from the rest of the Lebanese territories. "If anyone has the illusion that Israel will abandon this homeland while it is still able and strong must take a look at the spy rings being uncovered day after day," Raad said. "If the enemy is really done (with Lebanon), then what is the need for creating (new) networks … to identify targets for a new aggression," he asked. Beirut, 17 May 09, 19:55

March 14 Unveils Zahle Ticket
Naharnet/March 14 Forces on Sunday announced its ticket and electoral platform in the Zahle district with contender MP Nicholas Fattoush describing the polls as "fateful" to Lebanon's future. In addition to Fattoush, the list includes: Elie Marouni, Antoine Abu Khater, MP Assem Araji, Aquab Saqr, Joseph Saab al-Maalouf and Shante Janjanian.
Announcing the list, Fattoush said voters in Zahle will "have a great impact on the fate and future of Lebanon." "These elections are not ordinary. They are not elections of asphalts, public works, or development as they claim. These elections are momentous and fateful for the country," he said. "We have always and will always call for Lebanon first, Lebanon first, Lebanon first. No to the third republic," Fattoush said. He advised voters to choose representatives who have proved their "loyalty" for Lebanon and who believe in the principles of "coexistence and dialogue."He said a "healthy" democratic system is one that allows for accountability. "You must hold your representatives accountable and question them over the pledges they made during their electoral campaigns," he added. He also said that Lebanon cannot survive without an independent judiciary. Addressing political rivals, Fattoush said they must understand that "actions speak louder than words.""We are ones to keep our promises. Our parliamentary history shows that we are ones to transform words into actions," he promised.
He then told the voters that June 7 is their chance to hold "accountable and punish" those who "deceived them" during the 2005 polls.
"Time proved them wrong," Fattoush said of his opponents. The Zahle alliance includes the Phalange party, al-Mustaqbal movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Public Zahle Gathering, the National Liberal Party, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Democratic Gathering. Beirut, 17 May 09, 18:51

Saniora: Recent Speeches Contradict Doha Agreement; Israel Is the Real Enemy
Naharnet/Prime Minister Fouad Saniora said Sunday that recent political speeches "contradicted" an agreement among the Lebanese politicians to shun provocations for political gains.
Saniora, who was meeting with Saida's families along with Minister Bahia Hariri, also said that Israel remains Lebanon's "real enemy" adding that the country will not be "dragged" into disunity. "(Speeches) we have heard over the past days are a combination of political and domestic dimensions in addition to electoral and regional considerations," he said.
"They also (show) a desire to turn Lebanon into an arena for settling scores. Such statements are objectionable to say the least.
"They also contradict what the Lebanese agreed on, especially on Doha, where they committed to shunning violence, the language of arms, the use of weapons, force or threats for political gains," he added. On Israel, Saniora warned that the Jewish state wants to "divide" the Lebanese and insisted that Lebanon not fall prey to such plans.
"We know that the real enemy is Israel and we will not be a tool in anyone's hands," he said.
"The Lebanese will not seek violence. This will remain our only obsession on which we will build the Lebanese state - the state of the Taef. And it will not be a third republic."
Saniora also expressed support for the Lebanese forces and the army as they continue to crackdown on Israeli espionage networks.
Since April, at least 13 people were arrested in suspicion of spying for Israel. They include a former general in the security service, his wife and a nephew, who officials say have confessed to working as Israeli agents for the past 15 years.
The Security and military establishments were targets of "intimidation and attempts to hamper their work," Saniora said.
"The army, the intelligence and data-gathering units in the internal security forces were also denied access to the database that could enable us to uncover terrorist cells or spying cells," he added. "Trough our support, the espionage investigation was able to continue and uncover several sleeping cells, thus challenging accusations these apparatuses were collaborators for Israel." The prime minister also said that "any person – whoever he may be – was proven to be a spy is a traitor and must be punished." Beirut, 17 May 09, 17:52

Opposition Announces Beirut 3 Ticket that Includes 10 Contenders
Naharnet/The opposition announced on Sunday its Beirut 3 district list that includes ten candidates.
Members of the National Decision of Beirut ticket are: Ibrahim al-Halabi, Bahaaeddine Itani, Khaled al-Daouq, Omar Ghandour, Sheikh Abdel Nasser al-Jabri, Rafik Nasrallah, Ghazi al-Mounzer, Najah Wakim, Raymond Asmar and George Ishkhanian. Former MP Itani said the opposition in Beirut 3 is committed to a new electoral law, ending sectarianism, backing the Palestinian cause and return of Palestinians to their homeland. The platform also focuses on adopting a reform plan that fights corruption. "We call for national understanding in all respects," al-Daouq said before announcing the names of candidates. "We stress that Beirut was and will still remain for all Lebanese," he said. "Beirut and its people have rights that we call for."
Beirut, 17 May 09, 14:08

Hezbollah win could shake Obama Mideast policy
Sun May 17, 2009
By Cal Perry
(CNN) -- Since the moment Barack Obama took office, he has made a concerted effort to speak directly to the Muslim world.
Election posters hang on the exterior of many buildings in Tripoli, Lebanon, last week.
Even his inauguration address sent a new and different message from the United States:
"To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect," he said on January 20, standing in front of a changed nation. "To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy."
Next month, Obama will deliver a long-awaited speech to the Muslim world from Cairo, Egypt.
He will speak at a critical time for Lebanon, days before an election that could bring powerful Shia militia group Hezbollah to power.
This possibility could shake the foundation of Obama's attempts to bring stability and peace to the Middle East.
With one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East, Hezbollah is poised to lead Lebanon's government with the help of Lebanese Christian opposition leader, Gen. Michel Aoun.
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Aoun -- who has flipped and flopped politically more than a fish out of water -- recently announced he would align with the March 8 bloc, led by Hezbollah. That will give the bloc the the numbers it needs to control parliament after the June 7 elections.
There have been sporadic incidents of violence ahead of the vote: Billboards have been defaced and just last week, a Hezbollah-aligned political office was burned to the ground.
While these acts of violence are small by Lebanese standards, a friend who lives near the burned office told me it was a "terrifying reminder of last May."
That is when Hezbollah militants, in a blatant show of force, seized control of the streets of Beirut, marking the worst violence to hit Lebanon since the end of its civil war in 1991.
Many saw it as an embarrassment to Saad Hariri's ruling March 14 bloc, which had to grant major political concessions to Hezbollah to restore order to Beirut.
Hezbollah's leader has painted May 7, 2008, as a "glorious day that prevented civil war," but journalists like myself remember the day slightly differently: pinned down behind a building by raging gunfire.
At the time, I could not believe that Hezbollah gunmen were about to occupy half of the Lebanese capital. They did so until the government gave in; then they withdrew back to Beirut's southern suburbs, allowing the city's wealthy neighborhoods to return to normal for the summer.
Regardless, it was a show of force that people in Lebanon have not forgotten.
The lead-up to next month's vote has seen the same, typical -- and at times stereotypical -- Beirut antics.
Hezbollah has accused Hariri's political bloc of bringing Lebanese expatriates into the country in droves to try to swing the vote in its favor. Anyone who drives out to Beirut's airport can see these expats arriving from countries like Brazil, Canada and the United States.
Hariri swept to power in the wake of the 2005 assassination of his father, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Many Lebanese blamed Syria, which had dominated Lebanon politically and militarily since the civil war, for the killing. The assassination sparked widespread protests that led to the election of the younger Hariri's anti-Syrian bloc in parliament and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Damascus has denied any role in Hariri's killing, but a U.N. investigation has found indications of Syrian involvement.
Now, it appears the tide is turning once again in Lebanon, this time in Hezbollah's favor.
Three years ago, Hezbollah -- which is supported by both Syria and Iran -- fought a war against the Israeli military, which failed to weaken the militia. Since that perceived victory over Israel, Hezbollah has been considered by its supporters to be the "defender of Lebanon."
So what happens on June 8 when the world wakes up to a Lebanon that sees Hezbollah aligned with Aoun as the majority and Hariri's March 14 bloc as the opposition party?
When Hamas won the elections in Gaza in January 2006, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter called the elections "free and fair." But that made no difference as Israel tightened its grip, and the two rival Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, killed each other in the streets of Gaza.
Is the situation any different now for Lebanon, or is it perhaps even worse?
Lebanon's political landscape is shifting months after a similar shift in Israel. Voters in the Jewish state overwhelmingly supported conservative parties over more moderate groups, bringing into power Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this year.
Netanyahu is viewed in the Arab world as more hawkish than his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, who ordered the war against Hezbollah in 2006.
With an estimated 30,000 rockets pointed at Israel from southern Lebanon -- all under the control of Hezbollah -- how can Netanyahu sell the idea to the people of northern Israel that they are safe from a country ruled by Hezbollah-aligned politicians?
The situation means that the Arab world will be listening even more closely to Obama's June 4 address in Cairo to hear whether the U.S. president will champion democracy -- even if it means an inevitable standoff between Israel, a historically staunch ally, and Lebanon, as it struggles to find an identity both within itself and in the outside world.

Nasrallah remarks on May 7 events draw ire of March 14 officials
Coalition argues violence brought country to brink of new civil war
By Dalila Mahdawi
Daily Star staff
Monday, May 18, 2009
BEIRUT: Comments made by Hizbullah's General Secretary Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in praise of the May 7, 2008 events provoked furious condemnation from politicians in the March 14 coalition over the weekend. Nasrallah sparked criticism on Friday after calling May 7, 2008, a "glorious day" for the Resistance. "I tell the Lebanese, in particular Sunnis and Shiites, that the May 7 events put an end to war in Beirut," he said in a televised speech. Violence erupted last year when forces headed by Hizbullah forcibly took over parts of West Beirut after the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle the group's telecommunications network and remove Wafic Choucair from his post as head of security at Beirut's International Airport.
The clashes, in which at least 81 people were killed, "safeguarded Lebanon's institutions and forced all Lebanese parties to go back to the [national] dialogue, which led to the election of President Michel Sleiman," Nasrallah said. But many other Lebanese politicians disagree, and Nasrallah's comments sparked damnation from the Hariri-led March 14 coalition, which says last May's violence brought Lebanon to the brink of a renewed civil war.
Future Movement leader Saad Hariri referred to the violence as "ill-fated" and said Nasrallah's speech was a warning not to "harm" his party. Hariri was also confident that the March 14 coalition would triumph in the June elections: "We will win and they will lose," he told the Ash-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Sunday. "The people will describe the May 7 events at the ballot box."
Former Prime Minister Salim Hoss meanwhile referred to May 7 as a regrettable period in Lebanese history. "Fighting among brothers, members of the same nation and same group is extremely hurtful and tragic," he said in a statement Saturday. Hoss said he respected Hizbullah's role as leaders of the resistance against Israel, but added the role should be limited to just that. "It is Nasrallah's right to give his point of view about the reasons for May 7, but it should come with sorrow for what occurred," the ex-premier said.
Head of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt called for an atmosphere of calm, saying that creating tensions among the Lebanese ahead of June's elections was unhelpful. "Maintaining calm is essential and should be a priority," he told As-Safir newspaper on Saturday.
Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rasheed Qabbani called the May 7 events "a sin committed against the Lebanese state and all its citizens."
In a statement Saturday to mark the 1989 assassination of his predecessor Sheikh Hassan Khaled, Qabbani called for Lebanon's constitutional institutions to be restored and for a state free of tyranny.
In perhaps the most critical remarks against Nasrallah, MP Antoine Zahra said that the March 8 coalition wanted "to create a state loyal to what they dub as 'resistance.'"
"They want a state that subjugates itself to their weapons and visions," he said during an electoral rally in Batroun on Sunday. "They want a state that doesn't resemble Lebanon."
Addressing Nasrallah directly, Zahra said: "Sayyed, you can own three quarters of the planet Earth with your weapons, your money, your beliefs and your insolent attitude, but you will never rule Lebanon."
Deputy Prime Minister Issam Abu Jamra meanwhile defended Nasrallah, saying his remarks were intended at clarifying that May 7 prevented a new civil war. "Every event has positive and negative effects," he told New Television on Saturday, and asked why people only sought to remember the negative aspects on May 7.
March 14 have suggested Nasrallah's comments could sway undecided voters away from March 8 in their favor. Describing the events of May 7 as "glorious" will provoke "negative reactions from undetermined and non-aligned voters to the benefit of the parliamentary majority," the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat quoted March 14 officials as saying Saturday.
In his speech Friday, Nasrallah also called for the creation of a higher national committee for abolishing sectarianism in accordance with the 1989 Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon's 1975-90 Civil War. The Hizbullah leader also expressed his support for the current national unity Cabinet, saying the Hizbullah-led opposition was hoping for the establishment of a Lebanese state that would "implement true administrative reforms, achieve decentralization and adopt an electoral law based on the representative system."

Sfeir says alternating power is best for democracy
By Maroun Khoury /Daily Star correspondent
Monday, May 18, 2009
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said during Sunday prayers at the Notre Dame Cathedral in Bkirki that a true democracy consists of having power alternate between the majority and opposition. "Each party should be patient and wait. It should convince the people to adopt its views," he added. Sfeir called for ensuring a calm climate and decreasing the number of tense speeches that aim to achieve electoral ends.

Middle East Experts Call on the Obama Administration to Press for Democracy and Reforms in the Middle East
The Editors
FamilySecurityMatters.org
Last Wednesday, the Endowment for Middle East Truth held a staffer briefing, sponsored by the Adelson Family Foundation, as part of the Dr. Miriam and Sheldon G. Adelson Policy Seminar Series. She thanked the Adelson Family Foundation for enabling this to come about.
Sarah Stern introduced Farid Ghadry, Ali Alyami, and Walid Phares as three Profiles in Courage, intellectuals and dissidents from the Arab world, “who have found the courage to speak out about the truth about the autocratic nature of most of the Arab and Muslim world from which they hail, “ and about “their proud struggle for freedom and democracy.”
Stern then introduced Farid Ghadry, resident scholar of the Hudson Institute and author of several books on Syria, to speak.
Ghadry spoke on the importance of a project to reform Islam, and suggested a focus on “how do we feel about God, the prophet and the Koran, in the modern world.” While praising individual reform scholars, Ghadry suggested that the reform movement needed central guidance, and discipline rather than a “fragmented” approach. Ghadry said that numerous scholars and reforms need to be encouraged to work together, “in one room,” on a reform project. A reform project would need to encompass a number of key points. In particular, Ghadry said, it should reform the way Islam treats women, recommending that Islam model its treatment of woman comparable to Judaism treatment of women, which he suggested was responsible for much of the Jewish people’s success. Ghadry said, “I have three boys and a girl, and she’s my princess, and I would never treat her any different. Treatment of women is essential to our growth.” Ghadry also said that Islam must revise the way it treats “infidels” and said he was encouraged by EMET’s recent Speaker of the Truth honoree Tawfik Hamid’s work on the subject.
Ghadry closed by again calling for organization in the reform movement, and for its being supported by American legislators, saying, “If that effort can be put together, can be funded, can be announced, by numerous scholars, that it will rock the extremists tremendously. “
Next, Sarah Stern introduced, Dr. Walid Phares, Director of the Future Terrorism Project of the Foundation of Defense of Democracies, who has been the architect of the UNSCR 1559, calling for Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and backing the democratic Cedars Revolution.
Phares began his talk with a focus on what he called, “the map of dissidents,” which he described as “stretching from Morocco to Pakistan,” but suffering under the weight of the “hard core Jihadist force within OPEC” which funded the regimes which suppressed them. “If liberal democracies haven’t been able to confront OPEC on human rights and democracy,” he asked, “how heavy is the weight on dissidents?”
Phares described the vast diversity of dissident movements in the Arab and Muslim world, ranging from the Communist Party of Iran, which had suffered some 50,000 or more deaths under the Islamist regime, to monarchists, minorities, feminists, “and everything in between.”
Phares blamed the extensive funding of Middle East Studies departments by illiberal Oil producing Arab regimes as the primary reason why America was not more aware of the dissident movements which exist. “That’s part of the reason it’s not on the government agenda,” Phares explained. “It’s not on the academic agenda.”
This dis-education, Dr. Phares said, resulted in a confused view of the Middle East by the American public. “When we began talking about the Lebanese resistance to Syrian occupation, they were talking about in 2006, when they moved into Lebanon in ‘76,” Phares said, “And we’re just hearing about it now. And every time we are faced with an issue, legislators say, ‘Oh we didn’t know.’”
“Part of the reason we fail to understand the rise of Jihadism is that we haven’t studied it,” Phares said.
Turning towards a program to engage the Middle East, Dr. Phares urged that Human rights and democracy be made primary to any “engagement” with Arab regimes.
“Any time the administration wants to reengage they have to put Human Rights at the top of the agenda. In the last Administration, they talked about Human Rights, and democracy, but it didn’t drip down to the bureaucracy. Even if Washington wants to engage, Human rights and democracy have to be on the table, not off the table. There is no more imminent issue than Human rights when we talk to the Iranians. It’s just one inch below the nukes.”
The third Profile in Courage introduced by Sarah Stern was Dr. Ali Alyami, Director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia. Stern described her first meeting with Dr. Alyami, where he challenged Middle East experts to de-link the Israeli-Palestinian issue from the pursuit for democracy in the Middle East.
Dr. Alyami began his talk by mentioning that he had just come from a senate hearing, where Sen. John McCain was speaking out against the deplorable Human Rights conditions in Uzbekistan. Dr. Alyami said, “I was listening to John McCain, and I admire John McCain. And he was talking about Uzbekistan and I had to stay until I could ask a question, and I said, ‘what about human rights and democracies, in Saudi Arabia and Egypt?’ And it raised a lot of eyebrows.”
Dr. Alyami stressed that the Saudi regime had been very clever in the way it has manipulated and befriended public officials, through showering them with gifts and financial largesse.
Regarding Islamic reform, Dr. Alyami stressed that pushing forward with human rights and democracy should not wait for religious reform, but consist of real governmental reform and the establishment of democratic constitutions, which protected “serious freedoms,” including freedom of religion. Dr. Alyami contended that Arab regimes were opposed to Jews and Christians because of their democratic values, adding, “That’s what they’re afraid of.”
Dr. Alyami added that it was America which was the first and foremost the target of Arab regimes, because of its democracy, “as I told John McCain, that if we compromise our democratic values, here at home, or abroad, we will lose it, here as well as abroad. Our greatest weapon is our values. And we can’t afford to lose that.”
Following the speeches, the three Profiles in Courage gave Hill staffers an opportunity to ask questions. Responding to a question regarding terrorist religious rehabilitation programs, such as one carried out by Singapore, Dr. Phares responded by calling Singapore’s successful program, “the exception rather than the rule.” Farid Ghadry said reformers must promote a modern brand of Islam which Muslims could be proud of. “What we need to do is put it under a name, under a banner, to give moderates something to say they are proud of. Right now, I can’t say I’m proud to be a Muslim.”
Asked about a concrete strategy for dealing with Radical Islam comparable to the Reagan Strategy to end the Cold War, Dr. Alyami said the U.S should use its influence and protection of Saudi Arabia to force the Kingdom to make changes. “I would tell them, you’re exporting of Wahabbism. We must tell them, that your exporting of Wahabbism is killing our citizens. You have two years, to shut all your extremist schools…” Alyami recommended, “You have two years to close it, or we will close it for you. We protect you, so you do what we tell you. And they’ll do it, because they care more about their survival than anything else.”
Farid Ghadry said that the movement for a democratic Middle East needed individual stories, comparable to that of Natan Sharansky in the Soviet Union. “This administration has to concentrate on dissidents, human rights, look for one or two people, get their release from prison. When they get out, they can become voices of freedom, and the people of Syria, Iran will rally around them. And that can be a spark for something big.”
Sarah Stern added instead of focusing on human rights and making models of brave dissidents such as those in the room, the current administration appears to be linking engagement with Iran and the Palestinian-Israeli issue, which Stern described as potentially dangerous, especially as recent polls indicated that Palestinians would support Hamas, an Iranian proxy, over Fatah, in governing a Palestinian state. This, she said, would only serve to empower the autocratic theocracy in Tehran.
**Brought to you by the editors and research staff of FamilySecurityMatters.org.

Hezbollah’s Road to Victory in Lebanon’s June 7 Parliamentary Elections
By Editor
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Webster Brooks, Foreignpolicyreview.org
The specter of a Hezbollah-led coalition victory in Lebanon’s June 7 parliamentary elections looms large over the Middle East . Under Hassan Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah’s March 8 Coalition is on the threshold of ruling the Arab world’s most ethnically and religiously diverse democracy. With all the legitimate instruments of state power at Nasrallah’s disposal, Lebanon’s transformation from a weak Balkanized state into a fortress of Iranian influence in the Levant is a foreboding certainty.
Bracing for a strategic setback in the region, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced stop in Beirut on April 27 to assess the situation and reassure America’s Lebanese allies they would not be abandoned in tough times. Laying flowers on the grave of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Clinton pledged support for the “voices of moderation”—the pro-American “March 14” Cedar Coalition led by Saad Hariri, (Rafik Hariri’s son) and promised that the Obama administration’s dialogue with Syria would not compromise Lebanon’s sovereignty.
With three weeks left until Election Day, the Shiia Hezbollah and AMAL parties’ alliance with Michael Aoun’s Christian Maronite forces have seized the political momentum. Flush with money and a wielding a formidable organization on the ground, the March 8 Coalition is superbly positioned to defeat Hariri’s “Cedar” alliance. The majority of Sunni Muslims, Druze forces and micro-Christian parties supporting the Cedar coalition hold a 70-58 advantage over the Hezbollah bloc in the 128 member National Assembly.
With the Sunni and Shiia vote evenly divided between the Cedar March 14 bloc and the Hezbollah March 8th coalition, the election’s outcome will likely be determined by the Christian Maronite swing vote with 34 seats in parliament.
Michael Aoun, the once powerful anti-Syrian Christian Maronite Prime Minister and Lebanese Army Commander has emerged as the pivotal figure in the election. After returning from a 15 year exile, Aoun switched sides in 2006 to support Hezbollah. Visiting Damascus in 2008, the general who led Lebanese forces into battle against Syrian troops was greeted as a kingmaker. Aoun’s Free Democratic Movement captured 70% of the Christian vote in the 2005 elections.
Hezbollah is confident that the influential Aoun can deliver a substantial margin of the Christian electorate to give them a working majority in the parliament. In exchange for delivering votes to the Hezbollah-AMAL bloc, Aoun is reeping the rewards of Syrian and Iranian largesse in the form of security guarantees for Christian Maronite communities, campaign funding, additional National Assembly seats and a patronage machine to reward friends.
In addition to its strategic alliance with Michael Aoun, Hezbollah is riding the headwinds of change to victory as recent developments have dramatically strengthened their petition for leadership. On April 29, the United Nations tribunal investigating Rafik Hariri’s death ordered the release of the four generals jailed in 2005 in connection with the assassination. The tribunal ruled that the evidence was “not sufficiently credible to request their maintenance in detention.” The freeing of the generals who were never charged with a crime was an international embarrassment for Hariri’s coalition who implicated Syria for the murder and demanded the generals’ incarceration.
At the celebration of their release in North Beirut the four men praised Hassan Nasrallah for Hezbollah’s long standing support. Nasrallah immediately called on the United Nations Tribunal to continue its investigation, suggesting that Hariri’s murder was plotted in Israel. At the same time that Hariri’s bloc was reeling from the U.N. tribunals’ decision, Hezbollah and Lebanon ’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) stepped up its arrests of Lebanese nationals caught spying for Israel.
On May 12, Hezbollah held a press conference showcasing captured surveillance equipment used to track its member’s movements and transmit information back to Israel. The irony of the moment could not be missed; Hezbollah working closely with the ISF that was trained and financed by the U.S. to put them out of business. The ongoing operation that netted 26 arrests and shut down nine Israeli sleeper cells is further evidence of Hezbollah’s growing power in Lebanon.
While Hezbollah is surging, there is growing dissension in the Cedar forces ranks. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s criticism of the leadership’s narrow focus on Syrian interference in Lebanon’s affairs underscored the fundamental weakness of the March 14 movement; its inability to govern effectively and provide critical services to its citizens.
Indeed, Hezbollah’s key to success in Lebanon is not its militias, advanced weaponry or legendary war effort that turned back Israel’s 2006 invasion. Its core asset is providing housing, food, water, schools, hospitals and vital social services to its Shiia constituency and others. As one of Syria ’s most vocal critics and fierce opponents of Hezbollah, Jumblatt’s comments angered his March 14 Coalition members and Obama administration officials who need a strong turnout of Druze voters to carry the elections. Jumblatt’s statement also provoked speculation that he may switch sides to Hezbollah’s camp.
Jumblatt crossing over to support Hezbollah is unlikely, but the crafty veteran of several Lebanese wars recognizes that the balance of forces is tilting toward Hezbollah. In the unlikely event that the March 14th Cedar forces prevail in the elections, Hezbollah would still maintain its legislative veto in the National Assembly and the ability to block any measures that diminish its powers. Hezbollah’s militia and proxy forces would continue to control most of the country, including Beirut ’s critical seaport and airport.
Over time Hezbollah will also co-opt Lebanon ’s National Army and Internal Security Force, as is already occurring. Although speculation continues that Hezbollah might dispatch its militia to shut down the elections and the government if the voting isn’t going its way, Hezbollah is clearly mounting an all out campaign to win a “clean election” at the ballot box. In the final analysis, whether Hezbollah wins the June 7 elections or not, it will effectively control Lebanon in the fullness of time.
The Obama administration came to office with few if any options to slow Hezbollah’s reach for power in Lebanon. The U.S. funded a Lebanese army that cannot defeat Hezbollah on the battlefield. The United Nations resolution calling for Hezbollah to disarm could not be enforced. America , Saudi Arabia and several European countries financed and endorsed the Cedar movement that hasn’t effectively governed or expanded its political influence beyond its base.
Although President Obama recently suggested that American financial aid to Lebanon will be cut if Hezbollah wins the elections, America ’s attempts to isolate Hezbollah, as they did with HAMAS will be far more difficult. Hezbollah is not an isolated group. It has deep roots among the Shiia, a strong coalition among the Christian Maronite community and scattered support in the Sunni and Druze communities.
On the international front, Britain has already announced it will enter into a dialogue with Hezbollah, and it is only a matter of time before other European nations follow suite. Despite the U.S. ’s designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, only three other countries have labeled Hezbollah as a terrorist group ( Israel , Canada and the Netherlands ).
A Hezbollah victory in Lebanon ’s June 7 parliamentary elections will further erode American power in the Middle East at a time when the U.S. is on the defensive in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Obama administration’s curious attempt to coax Syria out of Iran’s orbit will be severely undermined if not completely derailed by Hezbollah’s victory.
Similarly, the administration’s strategy to promote al Fatah as the sole representative of the Palestinian people to the exclusion of HAMAS will encounter increased resistance on the Arab Street and in Tehran. In Europe, and among a growing number of American policy makers, calls for the U.S. to negotiate with HAMAS are heard with increased frequency. Across the Middle East Hezbollah’s victory will further unsettle the regimes of Arab Sunni sheikdoms fearful of Iran’s growth as the dominant regional force and the threat of rising Shiia movements within their countries. Hassan Nasrallah’s triumph in Lebanon is the product of 20 years of Iranian involvement to cultivate and methodically raise Hezbollah to power--perfecting the art of running a proxy state along the way.
President Obama recently stated at the Summit of the America’s meeting, that he would respect the “legitimacy” of all democratically elected governments, even if the US “might not be happy” with the results of any elections. On June 8, the President will get the chance to live up to his word when the Lebanese people speak at the polls.
**Webster Brooks is a Senior Fellow at the Center for New Politics and Policy and Director of Brooks Foreign Policy Review, the international affairs arm of CNPP. He also serves as Editor-in-Chief its website; foreignpolicyrevew.org. He can be contacted at editor@foreignpolicyreview.org.

'Netanyahu, Obama to focus on Iran'
By HERB KEINON, JERUSALEM POST CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON
The main thrust of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's comments during his long-awaited meeting with US President Barack Obama on Monday will concern Iran, because of Teheran's consistent progress toward developing nuclear arms, Uzi Arad, Netanyahu's national security adviser, said Sunday.
Pressure on Netanyahu to back two-state solution when he meets with Obama
"The way things are planned, the focus of Netanyahu's words will be the Iranian nuclear issue," Arad said.
"This is clear not only because this is an existential issue as far as the security of Israel is concerned, but because Iran is progressing all the time toward nuclear military capability."
Netanyahu landed in Washington early Sunday morning and held preparatory talks throughout the day for his first meeting as prime minister with Obama at the White House.
The meeting is scheduled to begin 10:30 a.m. local time and last for 90 minutes. It will be followed by a short press conference and a luncheon meeting.
Arad sounded buoyed by comments on Iran that Obama made to Newsweek in an interview published on the magazine's Web site.
Asked what he would discuss with Netanyahu regarding possible military action against Iran, Obama said, "I've been very clear that I don't take any options off the table with respect to Iran. I don't take options off the table when it comes to US security, period. What I have said is that we want to offer Iran an opportunity to align itself with international norms and international rules. I think, ultimately, that will be better for the Iranian people."
Obama said he was not naive about the prospects of success for this policy.
"If it doesn't work," he told the magazine, "the fact that we have tried will strengthen our position in mobilizing the international community, and Iran will have isolated itself, as opposed to a perception that it seeks to advance that somehow it's being victimized by a US government that doesn't respect Iran's sovereignty."
As to whether he expected Israel, as a US ally, not to take military action, Obama said: "No, look, I understand very clearly that Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and given some of the statements that have been made by President Ahmadinejad, you can understand why. So their calculation of costs and benefits are going to be more acute. They're right there in range and I don't think it's my place to determine for the Israelis what their security needs are."
However, he added, "I can make an argument to Israel as an ally that the approach we are taking is one that has to be given a chance and offers the prospect of security, not just for the United States but also for Israel, that is superior to some of the other alternatives."
Arad called these words worthy of "appreciation."
Regarding Israel's position on Iran, Arad said that an op-ed piece in Sunday's New York Times by Jeffrey Goldberg "reflects very well the approach of Netanyahu."
In that piece, Goldberg wrote that "Mr. Netanyahu says he supports Mr. Obama's plan to engage the Iranians. He also supports the tightening of sanctions on the regime, if engagement doesn't work. But there should be little doubt that by the end of this year, if no progress is made, Mr. Netanyahu will seriously consider attacking Iran."
According to the Goldberg piece, Netanyahu's military advisers believe that an attack on Iran, even if conducted without US help or permission, "would have a reasonably high chance of setting back the Iranian program two to five years."
Arad said it was clear that both the US and Israel shared the same goal of wanting to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capability, and that he expected a "detailed discussion" about the most effective ways to achieve that goal.
He also said that the US understood the high priority the issue holds for Netanyahu.
In recent weeks, however, the Obama administration has sent out clear signals that while it understands Israel's preoccupation with Iran, this cannot come at the expense of progress on the Palestinian track.
Regarding that track, Arad said the issue would clearly be addressed by both leaders and that "there might be some differences in approach."
Arad, who has been involved in intense preparatory talks with the Americans for weeks, seemed to hint that Netanyahu was not going to publicly come out and endorse a two-state solution.
"We are comfortable that a sense of pragmatism, and a desire for progress, will drive the discussions, and that what will decide the issues are the practicalities of the matter and not the rhetoric," he said.
Both Israeli and US officials have said in recent days that Netanyahu and Obama will come to an agreement on a general formula that could be interpreted as an Israeli endorsement of a two-state solution down the road.
Asked under what conditions Netanyahu would agree to negotiate toward a Palestinian state, Arad said there were "many hurdles" on the road to Palestinians and Israelis living side by side.
"One has to discuss those issues," he said. "To give you just one example of something that in real terms is much more immediate, what are we to do with Gaza?"
Arad said the presence of a "huge terrorist infrastructure" that was established there "precisely at the time that Israel evacuated Gaza" is "a practical issue, and this is where we have to knock heads together."
In addition to meeting Obama, Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday evening. On Tuesday he is scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, as well as congressional leaders and Jewish legislators.
Netanyahu has been extremely careful about making public statements before his meeting with Obama, not even - as is the norm - providing an airborne briefing to reporters who traveled with him to Washington Saturday night.
In addition to dealing with Iran and the Palestinian track, the issue of the Arab peace initiative is expected to arise in Monday's talks.
President Shimon Peres, speaking Sunday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Jordan, said it was important to advance the Arab peace initiative, echoing what he said earlier this month at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington
"The Saudis gave birth to a peace initiative," he said at that event, adding that this marked "a serious U-turn" from previous Arab rejectionism.
Pressure on Netanyahu to back two-state solution when he meets with Obama
He said that since Israel wasn't a partner to the wording of the initiative, "it doesn't have to agree to every word."
He said that Israel "respects the profound change. Israel hopes it will be translated into action, the sooner the better."
Government sources said that this seemed to reflect Netanyahu's view as well, that in contrast to the Arab world's famous three no's from the past - no to negotiation, peace or recognition - the peace initiative was a "move forward."
At the same time, the source said, it was obvious that Israel had "problems" with some elements of the initiative, "and while we welcome the call for peace and reconciliation, the details should be resolved in direct negotiations with our Arab neighbors."

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 19/09