LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 17/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12:1-7. Meanwhile, so many people were crowding together that they were trampling one another underfoot. He began to speak, first to his disciples, "Beware of the leaven--that is, the hypocrisy--of the Pharisees. There is nothing concealed that will not be revealed, nor secret that will not be known. Therefore whatever you have said in the darkness will be heard in the light, and what you have whispered behind closed doors will be proclaimed on the housetops. I tell you, my friends, do not be afraid of those who kill the body but after that can do no more. I shall show you whom to fear. Be afraid of the one who after killing has the power to cast into Gehenna; yes, I tell you, be afraid of that one. Are not five sparrows sold for two small coins? Yet not one of them has escaped the notice of God. Even the hairs of your head have all been counted. Do not be afraid. You are worth more than many sparrows.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Iran's proxy army in Lebanon will think twice before launching another round of missile attacks/By: Roben Bergman.16.10.09  
Terrorism: The unfinished war/By: Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/ 16.10.09
Security Council spot carries risks/The Daily Star/October 16/09
Thanks, but no thanks/Now Lebanon/October 16/09
Is Hezbollah finally on the back foot?/By: Hanin Ghadda/October.16.09
Sovereign Lebanon/Future News/October 16.09
Is the Obama effect turning the world against Israel?By: Yoel Marcus/Ha'aretz/October 16/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 16/09
Zapatero in Beirut Ahead of Suleiman's Visit to Spain/Naharnet
Execution, Penal Servitude for 35 Convicts in Tripoli's 'Banks Street' Explosion/Naharnet
Nadim Gemayel: Aoun is only the illustration of blockage/Future News
Strugar: Investigation over Tayr Felsay incident is ongoing/Future News
National Bloc: obstructers contribute to demeaning Lebanon/Future News
Cabinet Lineup Collides Once Again with 'Telecoms' Obstacle /Naharnet
Journalists in Teir Felsay: Hizbullah Banned Us from Entering, We Saw Trucks Going In and Out /Naharnet
Hariri Visits Berri But No Progress in Cabinet Crisis /Naharnet
Lebanon to defend Arab interests in UN Security Council/AFP
Syria: Dissident Lawyer Is Arrested/New York Times
Hizbullah to Israel: We Still Possess Weapons and Power despite Denial of Teir Felsay Blast /Naharnet
2 Bus Drivers Injured in Shooting Incident in Bourj Hammoud /Naharnet
Lebanon Elected Non-Permanent Security Council Member /Naharnet
Israel 'Continues to Prepare for War' as it Complains to Paris about Lebanon Assistance /Naharnet
Geagea: March 8 Seeking Opposition-controlled Government /Naharnet
Suleiman to Judges: It's your Responsibility to Restore Confidence in Judiciary /Naharnet
March 14 Christians accuse opposition of preventing cabinet/Daily Star 
Lebanon elected to Security Council/Daily Star 
Sleiman: Judiciary key to our democracy/Daily Star 
Beirut seminar seeks unified stance ahead of Doha anti-corruption meet/Daily Star  
Investors continue to snap up properties in Lebanon despite global economic recession/Daily Star 
Three men exchange fire over loot/Daily Star 
ISF to boost measures to thwart theft/Daily Star 
Fire breaks out on fishing boat/Daily Star
'Palestinians will not be naturalized/Daily Star 
STL-INTERPOL deal approved/Daily Star 
Hizbullah footage shows door, not rocket, placed on truck/Daily Star 
AUB memorial ceremony honors late Ambassador Dimechkie/Daily Star 
Participants turn on each other at forum on women/Daily Star 
Lebanon readies to break hummus, tabbouleh record/Daily Star
Science is made fun at Beirut convention/Daily Star 
LBC journalists claim they were sacked for political reasons/Daily Star 

Zapatero in Beirut Ahead of Suleiman's Visit to Spain
Naharnet/Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero arrived in Beirut on Friday, two days before President Michel Suleiman's three-day official visit to Spain.
Upon his arrival, Zapatero headed to Baabda Palace where he held talks with President Michel Suleiman and Caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Saniora. The meeting was attended by a number of ministers from both sides. Zapatero then held bilateral talks with Caretaker PM Fouad Saniora where they discussed the developments in the Middle East and the means of enforcing bilateral Lebanese-Spanish ties. After that, Zapatero headed to the South, aboard a UNIFIL military helicopter, where he met his country's brigade commander and officers working among the UNIFIL forces. Suleiman is expected to travel to Spain on Sunday. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 14:40

Execution, Penal Servitude for 35 Convicts in Tripoli's 'Banks Street' Explosion
Naharnet/Prosecutor General Saeed Mirza submitted his memorandum regarding the bombing that led to the death of 10 Lebanese Army soldiers, and wounding of 46, among them 9 civilians on 13 August 2008 at "Banks Street" in Tripoli. Mirza forwarded the memorandum to the Examining Magistrate to issue the indictment. The memorandum included 35 charged people from Lebanese, Palestinian, Syrian and Saudi nationalities. Among them 16 detained, 7 released, and 5 bailed. Mirza demanded execution in his memorandum for each of: Abdul Ghani Jawhar, Obeid al-Qufayl, Hamza al-Qassem, Mohrez al-Ali, Nader al-Ali, Nabil Abdul Rahman, Mohamad Khodor, Khaled Seif, Abdul Hameed Seif, Mahmoud Seif, Mustafa Dandal, Hussein Dandal, Ali al-Ahmad, and Ali Dandal. Mirza also demanded penal servitude for another number of convicts. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 17:51

Security Council spot carries risks
By The /Daily Star /Naharnet
It’s been more than half a century since Lebanon was a member of the United Nations Security Council, but this unenviable piece of information was amended this week with our return to one of the world’s most influential political bodies.There has been enthusiasm in Lebanon for a coveted seat on the UNSC, but some have foreseen the problems that might arise during Lebanon’s tenure; a back-room discussion by the great powers for a replacement apparently went nowhere, after Saudi Arabia indicated it was reluctant to replace Lebanon on the council.
In the end, Lebanon received the votes of 180 out of 192 General Assembly members, and should remember this overwhelming level of confidence when it assumes its duties.
Few political events of this magnitude involve only positive aspects. There are plenty of minefields for Lebanon to navigate as it joins its 14 colleagues on the council. An obvious place to start is Iran’s nuclear issue: what will happen to Lebanon when the so-called P5-plus-One countries decide to vote on a resolution on Iran’s nuclear activities? Will Lebanon take a clear stand either way, or will it just opt for the “easy way out,” i.e. abstaining? What will happen if the international community’s agenda vis-à-vis Syria is on the table in New York; what if the US and its allies are arrayed on one side, and the Syrians on the other? Vote with Washington? Politically costly. Vote with Damascus? Same result. The enthusiasm of some Lebanese for a seat on the Security Council has known no bounds, but it’s known little wisdom as well. We were patched up last year by the Doha Accord, and we remain a fragile country, lacking proper political institutions. By joining the Security Council, we enter the realm of a politics where sound decision-making is an absolute must, yet when we look at our domestic scene, we can’t boast of much of a functioning decision-making process, while we lack the political stamina to ride out any nearby crisis in the region.
A fractious vote in the Security Council might be reflected here, in even more fractious politics, or worse. It’s a pessimistic outlook, but a realistic one. Our politicians, from across the entire spectrum, must recognize that they’re stuck together, in a single boat – they must formulate a process that prevents the country from splintering when there’s international disagreement.
The challenge for us is to prevent our local players from threatening civil peace, based on a Security Council action. It’s a high stakes benchmark of our performance, and one that involves real risks. Irrespective of these concerns, Lebanon has returned to the Security Council and we should monitor our performance there, since it’s an easily a place from which even more political turbulence can come our way.

Israel 'Continues to Prepare for War' as it Complains to Paris about Lebanon Assistance
Naharnet/Israel has reportedly complained to Paris over its assistance to Lebanese armed forces which played a role in uncovering Israeli spies in Lebanon.
French Le Figaro daily said the Israeli complaint was about wiretapping devices donated to Lebanese security agencies to help uncover those involved in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination. However, such equipment was used to unveil Israeli spy rings too. Al-Akhbar daily said Paris ignored the complaints, saying the assistance "was part of efforts to unveil the truth" in Hariri's Feb. 2005 murder. French authorities have reportedly said that technical assistance to Lebanon "goes back to previous decades." Meanwhile, Israeli army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said he cannot promise that the relative quiet on the border with Lebanon would continue. "Now we are enjoying relatively quiet state along the borders, but I cannot promise it will continue. In our area, in the Middle East, we have some neighbors who have not accepted our existence as a Jewish and democratic state," he told cadets from the Officers School soon completing their training period. The Israeli army, according to Ashkenazi, "is the insurance certificate to the existence of the state." "You are leading the forces in the field," the army chief told cadets. "The IDF permanently stands in one of two situations: war or preparation for war. We must continue to prepare for war; otherwise there is no justification for the existence of the IDF." Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 11:49

Hizbullah Video Contradicts Israel's Story as Jumblat Urges Nations to Provide Army with Anti-Aircraft Guns
Naharnet/Hizbullah produced and aired a video tape which contradicted Israeli claims that Hizbullah fighters were removing dozens of rockets out of the house of a Hizbullah member after an explosion ripped through his garage and urged the United Nations to look into the video footage. The video segment aired on Al-Manar television Tuesday evening showed a door and some furniture being removed from the house of Nasser Issa in Teir Felsay. The Israeli army Tuesday showed a video in which what were said to be Lebanese militants are seen removing dozens of rockets out of Issa's home after the blast. Army spokeswoman Avital Leibowitz said the video was shot by an unmanned drone.
He said the video showed militants removing the rockets in two trucks before allowing in U.N. investigators. Also removed was a particularly large piece of equipment that could be a large rocket or a type of launcher. As-Safir daily, meanwhile, citing an official Lebanese version, said Thursday that what happened at the garage of the three-story building in Teir Felsay was the result of direct contact of electrical wire with flammable materials which caused a blast that ignited the fire. It said following the explosion, a group of residents (between 7 and 8) came to the scene and began picking up pieces, including the iron garage door which was wrapped in a white sheet and put in a pickup truck for transport. Several other pieces, according to the story, were also put in a similar truck for transport to an empty lot in Deir Qanoun al-Nahr while the Israeli drone was monitoring the area. In a related development, Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh was reading to file a complaint with the Security Council to protest repeated Israeli violations to the Lebanese airspace. Druze leader Walid Jumblat also called on nations to provide the Lebanese army with anti-aircraft and anti-tank guns.(photo courtesy of Manar TV) Beirut, 15 Oct 09, 08:34

Cabinet Lineup Collides Once Again with 'Telecoms' Obstacle
Naharnet/The telecommunications ministry has emerged once again as a major obstacle to Cabinet formation in view of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's position that adheres to this key portfolio. The daily As-Safir, however, said the deadlock was due to an "external obstacle," adding that the Syrian-Saudi summit was not enough to give the green light to form a Cabinet. Aoun, according to An-Nahar newspaper, summed up his demands as follows: either the telecoms ministry or the interior or finance ministries. It quoted high-ranking FPM sources as saying Aoun was not willing to give up his desire for these portfolios after having compromised on the six ministries he was demanding. Aoun, the sources added, was likewise not willing to abandon a key ministerial portfolio – interior – in return for a key service ministry. While As-Safir said Hariri was held onto the telecoms ministry, it said the premier-designate has informed several leaders who have examined his mood that he rejects the idea of granting the telecoms ministry to one of the ministers from President Michel Suleiman's shares. Opposition sources quoted by al-Liwaa daily had said that a French proposal suggested giving the telecoms portfolio to one of the ministers who fall within Suleiman's share, provided that this person is accepted by both Hariri and Aoun. Suleiman has been allotted five seats in the new government. Pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, meanwhile, said the trend appeared to be toward giving the telecoms ministry to Suleiman's Advisor for Strategic Affairs Adnan Assayyed Hussein. Opposition circles were quoted Friday as saying that the Cabinet crisis was back to square one. Daily Al-Hayat, however, was less pessimistic. It quoted sources as saying that Aoun's adherence to the telecoms ministry "does not mean a decline in optimism, but shows progress is being made in negotiations regarding a Cabinet lineup." Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 08:33

Journalists in Teir Felsay: Hizbullah Banned Us from Entering, We Saw Trucks Going In and Out
Naharnet/As a video war erupted between Israel and Hizbullah against the backdrop of the Teir Felsay explosion – with Israel claiming that Hizbullah members were removing a huge rocket out of the house where the blast occurred and Hizbullah stressing that the projectile was just an iron gate – the U.N. awaits a joint report by UNIFIL and the Lebanese army regarding the incident. Meanwhile, questions were raised about the uncertainty surrounding the issue. Hizbullah has produced and aired a video tape which contradicted Israeli claims that Hizbullah fighters were removing dozens of rockets out of the house of Hizbullah member Nasser Issa after an explosion ripped through his garage. The video segment aired on Al-Manar television Tuesday evening showed an door and some furniture being removed from Issa's house in Teir Felsay. The Israeli army had earlier showed a video in which what were said to be Lebanese militants are seen removing dozens of rockets out of Issa's home after the blast. Army spokeswoman Avital Leibowitz said the video was shot by an unmanned drone.
He said the video showed militants removing the rockets in two trucks before allowing in U.N. investigators. Also removed was a particularly large piece of equipment that could be a large rocket or a type of launcher. Pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat asked whether the explosion was deliberate or just an accident or the result of an error.
"Some may say it was on purpose or just a technical error, while others say something went wrong during the training of Hizbullah members on certain weapons," wrote Asharq al-Awsat.
Well-informed sources told the daily that anyone seeking to look for the truth of what happened in Teir Felsay will not be able to do so because Hizbullah "has the ability to evade the Lebanese army and UNIFIL."Asharq al-Awsat quoted journalists operating in southern Lebanon as saying that Hizbullah sealed off the blast scene in a security dragnet the minute the explosion took place around 8:30pm Monday and banned anyone from entering for more than 3 hours. The journalists said that during that time they saw trucks, cars and equipment, in addition to ambulances, going in and out of the blast scene. Hizbullah, however, stressed it was the Lebanese army who imposed the security dragnet around the explosion site. "No one was denied entry," Hizbullah MP Hasan Fadlallah told Ashar al-Awsat. Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's spokesman Farhan Haq told reporters in New York that the United Nations was waiting until all the facts are out before passing a judgment. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 10:43

Hariri Visits Berri But No Progress in Cabinet Crisis
Naharnet/PM-designate Saad Hariri held talks with Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tineh Thursday night but media reports said the meeting made no progress in the efforts aimed at solving the cabinet crisis. Sources close to Berri had told An Nahar before the meeting took place that "it was time to form the cabinet." However, Beirut dailies said nothing came up from the talks that lasted for around 3 hours. An Nahar quoted the premier-designate as saying that the meeting was "good." Hariri and Berri circles told As Safir the atmosphere was positive and things were heading in the right direction. However, they said there are some obstacles that should be overcome through continued consultations. Berri, according to the daily, told his visitors that nothing could push him to withdraw his decision not to make public statements on the cabinet formation. About his visit to Qatar and the UAE, Berri said Doha agreed to fund several water projects in Lebanon, including building dams and lakes. He also told As Safir that UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan expressed sympathy with Lebanon and the Lebanese living there. The speaker added that the issue of deportation of Lebanese from the UAE has been closed and its positive results would appear gradually. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 10:11

Hizbullah to Israel: We Still Possess Weapons and Power despite Denial of Teir Felsay Blast
Naharnet/Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem has warned Israel that Hizbullah still possess weapons and power regardless of the Shiite group's denial of the Israeli version of the story on the explosion that ripped through a garage in the southern Lebanese town of Teir Felsay. "Let it be known that when we deny the Teir Felsay incident the way it was carried by Israeli media, that this does not mean that Hizbullah does not posses weapons," Qassem said. "Thank God, weapons are available and the power is present and we are fully prepared" to fight, he added. "Let no one believe that this issue has raised our fears and will prompt us to say that we have no weapons," Qassem threatened. "Not at all. We say out loud that our Islamic resistance is very well armed to stand up to Israel if attacked or if it attempted to commit any folly," Qassem added. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 11:09

Geagea: March 8 Seeking Opposition-controlled Government
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Thursday that the opposition does not intend to help form the government unless it gains total control over it. Geagea was speaking after the visit of Palestinian Liberation Organization representative in Lebanon Abbas Zaki to Maarab on the occasion of Zaki's diplomatic mission ending.
The Lebanese Forces leader criticized the distribution of roles among the opposition factions where if one party was satisfied the other would set obstacles. Geagea added that the opposition does not have one negotiator like March 14 forces who are represented by PM-designate Saad Hariri. Geagea stressed that the opposition does not have a political decision to form the government whether it is labeled as a national unity government or any other form. "The matter is again in the President's and PM-designate's hands," added Geagea. Regarding the 70's bloody past between the Lebanese and the Palestinians, especially during the years 1975-1976, Geagea said that PLO representative in Lebanon Abbas Zaki managed to put that past behind the two sides backs. Geagea concluded "even though we did not forget (those years) but we took the examples and transcended towards a better future." On his part, Zaki stated that "the Palestinians and the Lebanese were the victims of huge conspiracies being both sharing the Mediterranean sea and threatened by Israel". Beirut, 15 Oct 09, 19:02

2 Bus Drivers Injured in Shooting Incident in Bourj Hammoud
Naharnet/An unknown assailant opened fire on bus drivers taking part in a sit-in near Bourj Hammoud bridge on Friday, lightly injuring two of them, the National News Agency reported. NNA said the injured were Elias Abdel Nour, 45, and Joseph Moawad, 36. They were taken to nearby hospitals. Nour and Moawad were taking part along with other bus drivers in a sit-in to protest an attack on a bus in Fanar on Thursday. Following the incident, Internal Security Forces dispersed the protesters and police patrols chased the gunman who escaped to one of the narrow streets in Bourj Hammoud-Nabaa. Beirut, 16 Oct 09, 13:14

Lebanon Elected Non-Permanent Security Council Member
Naharnet/The U.N. General Assembly on Thursday elected Lebanon as a non-permanent member of the Security Council for a two-year term starting Jan.1, 2010.
Brazil, Nigeria, Gabon, Lebanon and Bosnia-Hercegovina were elected Thursday as non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council for 2010-2011, the president of the General Assembly announced. The five will take their seats on the 15-member council on January 1, replacing Costa Rica, Libya, Uganda, Vietnam and Croatia who will complete their two-year mandate on December 31. Coming first as a reaction regarding Lebanon's election was Caretaker Fouad Saniora. After announcing Lebanon as a non-permanent member in the U.N. Security Council Saniora said that our country has the support of its Arab brothers and of considerable friends in the rest of the world.
"Getting 180 votes out of 190 proves that Lebanon's election comes as a vote of confidence. Lebanon is considered an example of common living and of having democratic system," said Saniora. Saniora added that "Lebanon's position as a non-permanent member will allow it to play an effective role in the UN Security Council" regarding Arab issues and will defend total world peace. In the Latin America and Caribbean group, Brazil -- which already has served nine terms on the council, most recently from 2004-2005 -- was the only candidate.
Brazil was elected with 182 of the 190 votes cast, with seven abstentions, Ali Triki, the president of the 192-member General Assembly, said. In the Africa group where two seats were up for grabs, Nigeria was elected with 186 votes, along with Gabon, which received 184 votes. Nigeria, Africa's oil giant and the continent's most populous nation previously served three terms -- most recently in 1994-1995, while Gabon has never served. One seat was at stake in the Asia group, which Lebanon won with 180 votes. In the Eastern Europe group, Bosnia, which has never served, was elected to the seat that will be left vacant by Croatia with 183 votes. Citing his country's painful war experience from 1992 to 1995, Bosnian Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj said "we are going to be a strong voice for preventive diplomacy." He highlighted the fact that Bosnia was endorsed by the full 23-member Eastern Europe group. "Although we will act in our national capacity, we are going to be a part of a broader consensus that is growing in our neighborhood, where all the countries share the same desire of peaceful and prosperous life," Alkalaj said. The Security Council is the most important UN decision-making body, with its five permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- each having veto power over its decisions. It is tasked with maintaining international peace and security. The council's 10 non-permanent seats are filled by the General Assembly, with five countries elected each year to two-year non-renewable mandates. To secure a seat, a candidate nation has to win two-thirds of votes cast in a secret ballot. (Naharnet and AFP)
Beirut, 15 Oct 09, 21:29

Suleiman to Judges: It's your Responsibility to Restore Confidence in Judiciary
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman told Lebanese judges on Thursday that it was their responsibility to restore public confidence in the judicial system. "If it is the state's responsibility to come up with a future plan for the judiciary in Lebanon, it is also your responsibility to restore public confidence in it," Suleiman told judges during a ceremony at the Justice Palace to celebrate the opening of the judicial year. The ceremony was attended by Speaker Nabih Berri, Caretaker PM Fouad Saniora and other top officials. Suleiman called for supporting the judicial system's reform. "The right thing to do is to support the judiciary and its reform. It would be wrong to defame it for our (personal) reasons." "The judiciary's independence is the essence for the consolidation of independence. I have taken oath to protect the constitution and I stress that I am keen on making the judicial authority strong and protective of freedoms," he said. Suleiman also described Lebanon's expected election as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council on Thursday an "important event" that would help the country defend itself and stress the right of return for Palestinian refugees. With its Security Council member status, Lebanon will keep a close watch on "suspicious" draft resolutions, the president added.
Beirut, 15 Oct 09, 16:11
 

March 14 Christians accuse opposition of preventing cabinet
By Elias Sakr/Daily Star staff
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: In contrast to the optimistic atmosphere that reigned over the course of the week, March 14 Christian leaders accused opposition forces on Thursday of hampering the cabinet formation under the influence of foreign powers. Late on Thursday night, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri held talks with Speaker Nabih Berri. As The Daily Star went to press, no statement had been issued.
The meeting was to be the last this week in a series of talks with political leaders as Hariri is expected to resume his cabinet deliberations next week.
Meanwhile, Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel said on Tuesday that demands by opposition groups to be granted certain ministerial portfolios or nominating certain candidates were no more than pretexts which masked their determination to obstruct the cabinet formation. “The positive rhetoric by the opposition is only in appearance since some seek to prolong the crisis and obstruct the premier-designate’s mission Gemayel said. He emphasized that the Telecommunications Ministry issue was no more than a pretext to delay the process given the immature regional circumstances and the need by some foreign powers to use Lebanon as a bargaining card. On Wednesday, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun reiterated his demand that his party be re-allotted the Telecommunications Ministry for a second term.
Aoun also insists on granting his son-in-law, caretaker Telecommunications Minister Jebran Bassil, a seat in the next cabinet, a demand that was rejected earlier by the majority, which opposed the nomination of candidates who lost in the June 7 elections. Bassil lost the race to Parliament in his hometown Batroun to March 14 candidates. But following negotiations between Hariri and Aoun, both leaders reached an understanding, rendering the appointment of Bassil no longer an obstacle. Gemayel added that political parties should respect the outcome of the June 7 polls and learn from past experiences to facilitate the cabinet formation.
Gemayel also stressed that his party demanded that its participation in the next government be in accordance with its representational size.
Similarly, Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea said Thursday the opposition did not want a cabinet unless they had full control over its decisions.
Geagea stressed that opposition groups were distributing roles among themselves when it came to negotiations with the premier-designate, adding that the positive climate expressed by March 8 only served propaganda purposes.
He also called on Sleiman and Hariri to assume their responsibilities and form a cabinet in accordance with constitutional norms since the formation process had reached an impasse.
Separately, Future Movement MP Ahmad Fatfat stressed that obstacles impeding the cabinet formation were not only restricted to the Telecommunications Ministry.
“We noticed apparent optimism but no positive acts since Wednesday’s statements indicated that we are back to square one despite all compromises offered by the premier-designate,” Fatfat said. UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams voiced support Thursday for the open dialogue strategy adopted by all sides in Lebanon, adding that it could lead to the formation of a government soon. Following talks with Aoun in Rabieh, Williams stressed that the current week was crucial to resolving outstanding issues and taking decisive steps toward cabinet formation. “We believe a positive spirit is prevailing, after earlier delays that we were concerned about, but I am confident that progress can be made in the coming days,” Williams said. “I would like to take this opportunity to commend General Aoun for the spirit in which he has conducted this dialogue with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri,” he added.

Lebanon elected to Security Council
Sleiman vows country will defend rights of Palestinians, Arabs
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman said on Thursday his country will defend Arab interests, after Lebanon was elected to the UN Security Council for the first time since 1954. “Lebanon, through its international relations and its presence at the heart of the highest body in the United Nations, represents a security net in the face of any Israeli [attempt at] destabilization,” he said in a speech. Lebanon was one of five states elected on Thursday as non-permanent members of the Security Council for 2010-2011, the president of the General Assembly announced. The other four are Brazil, Nigeria, Gabon and Bosnia-Hercegovina. The five will take their seats on the 15-member council on January 1, replacing Costa Rica, Libya, Uganda, Vietnam and Croatia which will complete their two-year mandate on December 31. Sleiman said Lebanon would be “vigilant to ensure the failure of any attempt to annihilate its rights or those of the Palestinians and Arabs.” His country would “be the spearhead for protecting its interests and those of the Arab nation, as well as the defense of human rights, and will work for the return of Palestinian refugees,” he said. Unlike most previous Security Council elections, there were no contested seats this year. As a result, the five countries nominated by regional groups won easy election on the first ballot in voting by the 192-member General Assembly. Unresolved political and security issues have meant that Lebanon is subject to Security Council scrutiny.
Lebanon has been on the Security Council agenda for decades – with a UN peacekeeping force deployed in the south near the Israeli border since 1978 and a UN-backed tribunal mulling possible indictments in the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
The political situation in Lebanon is also fragile, with the parliamentary majority and opposition still deadlocked on forming a new unity government following the June 7 elections.
“The experience of being on the council will help strengthen their national government systems to enable them to take decisions on international issues,” British Ambassador John Sawers, whose country holds a permanent council seat, said of Lebanon and Bosnia. Assembly President Ali Treki announced the results – 186 votes for Nigeria, 184 for Gabon, 183 for Bosnia, 182 for Brazil and 180 for Lebanon – and declared the five countries elected to terms beginning January 1, 2010 as diplomats burst into applause.
“It’s going to be an even stronger Security Council, I think, next year,” Sawers said. “We have two large countries in Brazil and Nigeria who carry the weight of being a regional power. We have two countries in Lebanon and Bosnia that have been through conflict and can bring their own national experiences to the Security Council.”
“Ten of the council’s 15 seats are filled by regional groups for two-year stretches, and five non-permanent members are elected by the General Assembly every year. To win, candidates must get a two-thirds majority of the assembly members voting by secret ballot. The only way that the five countries elected on Thursday could have been blocked would have been if they had failed to obtain a two-thirds majority of the votes. All five were elected with overwhelming majorities.
There are five veto-holding permanent members of the Security Council – the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China – and 10 temporary elected members without vetoes.
But the elected members have some power because a council resolution needs nine votes in favor as well as no vetoes.
Bosnia has never served on the council and Lebanon has not been a member since 1953-54. After the break-up of former Yugoslavia, Bosnia was ravaged by Europe’s worst fighting since World War II, with 260,000 people killed and 1.8 million displaced. A NATO-led force deployed in late 1995 to enforce the peace agreement signed in Dayton, Ohio that ended the conflict was replaced in December 2005 by a new European Union peacekeeping force, whose mandate is renewed every year by the Security Council.
While security has improved in Bosnia, ethnic tensions between the country’s Muslims, Croats and Serbs remain high. Revamping the country’s constitution to form a single government with one president – instead of two mini-states joined in a weak federal system – is considered essential if Bosnia is to fulfill its ambition of joining the European Union, but Bosnian Serbs are blocking any constitutional change that diminishes their power. Gabon is not on the council agenda but it also has political problems. Its August 30 election results giving victory to Ali Bongo, the son of the country’s longtime dictator, have been disputed by opposition candidates who accuse Bongo of fraud. Gabon was last a member of the Security Council in 1998-99, Nigeria in 1994-95 and Brazil in 2004-05. – Agencies, with The Daily Star

Sleiman: Judiciary key to our democracy
President urges judges to ensure institution’s independence
By Elias Sakr /Daily Star staff/Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman stressed on Thursday that the judiciary was the backbone of Lebanon’s independence and the cornerstone of any democratic regime. During the opening of the 2010 judicial year at the Justice Palace in Beirut, Sleiman urged judicial authorities to promote accountability and justice in order to protect the society from corruption.
The opening was attended by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar, Interior Minister Ziad Baroud and several other ministers and judges. The president added that it was the judges’ responsibility to ensure the judiciary institution’s independence through “autonomous and fair practice of their duties.”
He also underlined that he would ensure the independency of the judiciary in accordance with his constitutional prerogatives that hold him responsible for protecting the Constitution and its implementation. For his part, Najjar stressed that Lebanon’s independent judicial system was regaining its authority, adding that the Justice Ministry was ready to follow up on its most recent efforts which led to the election of the members of two judicial councils in less than a year, the State Shura and Constitutional councils.
The election of members for both councils was delayed until a few weeks before the June 7, 2009 elections following a two-year political deadlock after the withdrawal of Hizbullah and Amal Movement Shiite ministers from the government headed by Premier Fouad Siniora in 2006. The deadlock ended with the 2008 Doha Accord, which led to the election of Sleiman and the formation of a national-unity cabinet. Addressing the need to implement future reforms, Najjar said judicial verdicts should be issued in a timely fashion, adding that authorization must be issued to hold suspects in temporary custody. “We should also address the issue of holding exceptional trials and verdicts that cannot be appealed, as well as shorten judicial staff members’ holidays to properly implement judicial work,” Najjar said. Najjar also called for decreasing the period of sentences and transfering the administration of prisons to the Justice Ministry in 2012. “Lebanon will be facing challenges,” said Najjar, adding that the country’s constitutional institutions must restore balance and effectiveness. Najjar also praised Sleiman’s stances, adding that his presence along with several state officials at the event “is an act of belief in the Lebanese institutions and their role.”

Beirut seminar seeks unified stance ahead of Doha anti-corruption meet
By Filip Ericsson /Special to The Daily Star/Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: The seminar in preparation for the Doha conference of the UN Convention against Corruption was opened at the Metropolitan Hotel on Thursday by Wassim Harb, senior rule of law adviser at the UNDP’s Program on Governance in the Arab region. Harb said he was proud that the upcoming Doha conference, which will commence November 3, would be the first of its kind in an Arab country. The Beirut seminar is intended to create a unified position ahead of the Doha conference among Arab countries in their struggle against corruption and the creation of more transparent Arab governments. Harb’s introduction was followed with a statement by UNDP country director Seifeddine Abbaro. The goal of the UN convention against corruption, according to Abbaro, is to create a culture of integrity to fight corruption and build rule of law in the Arab societies. Arab Network for Enhancing Integrity and combating Corruption chair Dr. Abed Shakhanbeh, presented his group’s goals of state self-assessment, protecting witnesses of corruption and promoting cooperation among NGOs and governments Judge Michel al-Tarazi, representing Lebanese Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar and host of the seminar, said corruption hinders democracy and the rule of law, which in turn creates an en­vironment where human rights abuses will thrive in a society. The first day of the seminar being merely a presentation, day two, which will be held on Friday, will focus on the attending Arab countries’ presentations of their nations’ achievements in their work against corruption Investors continue to snap up properties in Lebanon despite global economic recession

Growth expected to remain at 10-15 percent each year until 2013
By Osama Habib /Daily Star staff
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: The head of the Orders of Engineers in Lebanon on Thursday projected a growth in the real-estate sector of 10 to 15 percent each year until 2013. “We already have a growth of nine percent in the first eight months of 2009 and we expect this growth to continue,” Bilal Abdallah Alayeli told The Daily Star. The real-estate sector in Lebanon has lured Lebanese expatriates and Arab investors alike, despite the global economic crisis which has severely affected Dubai and other oil wealthy states in the region.
The value of property transactions in 2008 reached more than $4.3 billion and most of the buyers are Lebanese expatriates working in Gulf states.
Alayeli said that contrary to the general perception, Lebanese engineers who worked in the UAE have either moved to Qatar and Saudi Arabia The jobs prospects in Qatar and Saudi Arabia are much better than Dubai these days as thousands of Lebanese engineers thought their fortune in other Gulf states,” he said.
Real-estate brokers noticed that most of the flats that are sold in Beirut and Mount Lebanon are small to medium in size.
They also noted that the real-estate boom in Lebanon is only natural because the county’s landscape is very small compared to the population.
“Imagine if 10 percent of Lebanese expatriates in Europe and the United States decided to come back to settle here. The prices of properties will go crazy,” one broker said.
The price of a square meter of built up property in Beirut starts from $1,600, while the cost outside Beirut is close to $800.
Alayeli said that most of the apartments that are sold range between 150 square meters to 300 square meters.
He added that the demand for apartments will likely rise after the Central Bank gave incentives to commercial banks to increase house loans at very competitive rates. Banks are offering 20- to 30-year housing loans at interest rates that do not exceed 5.9 percent.
Figures released by the Directorate of Real Estate, which were published by Bank Audi’s Weekly Monitor, indicate that transactions of property sales reached 7,740 operations during August, up by 3.9 percent relative to July 2009, 28.9 percent relative to June 2009, and reaching their highest value in 2009, so far. But this figure is still 2.3 percent lower than the number of sales operations during August 2008, as back then the real-estate boom was at its peak.
“As such, the year-to-date variation in property sales transactions is still in the negative territory in the first eight months of the year, reaching 3.4 percent, with property sales transactions totaling 48,225 during the said period,” Bank Audi said. The total value of property sales in Lebanon in the eighth month of the year stood at LL957.843 billion, down by 2.5 percent year-on-year, yet peaking in 2009, so far. Consequently, the average value per property sale in August 2009 went up by a trivial 0.1 percent year-on-year.
The year-to-date variation in the value of property sales remained in negative territory, bearing in mind that over the past four months, this decline has been gradually contracting to reach -3.1 percent in the first eight months of 2009. “Such a decline is very close to the yearly decline in the number of property sales and thus the average value per property sale transaction increased by a trivial 0.3 percent in the first eight months of 2009 relative to the same eight months of 2008. Total value of property sales transactions reached LL5.612.5 trillion in the first eight months of the year, while the average value per property transaction reached LL116.4 billion, during the period,” Audi said.

Three men exchange fire over loot
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: The sound of automatic gunfire and exploding rocket-propelled grenades was heard in the city of Baalbek Wednesday night, An-Nahar newspaper said Thursday. The National News Agency said the shooting was the result of clashes between Ali Rajeh Jaafar, Ali Izzat Jaafar and Abbas Mohammad Jaafar over the sharing of looted goods. – NNA

ISF to boost measures to thwart theft
Friday, October 16, 2009/BEIRUT: Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud called on the Internal Security Forces Thursday to mobilize patrols and set up daily checkpoints from midnight until 7 a.m., to monitor roads where thefts were taking place. Also on Thursday, Baroud met with the head of Lebanon’s Elections Monitoring Committee, Judge Ghassan Abou Alwan. – NNA

STL-INTERPOL deal approved
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: The International Criminal Police Organization approved a deal cut between INTERPOL and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) during a meeting of the INTERPOL general assembly in Singapore, media reports said Wednesday. INTERPOL and the STL concluded last month an interim agreement on INTERPOL’s assistance to the international tribunal with regard to its investigations and other proceedings that pertain to the crimes that fall under its jurisdiction. The approval came during a session that was attended by the head of the Internal Security Forces General Ashraf Rifi. “It is time to hold dangerous criminals accountable so the innocent can enjoy a peaceful life,” Rifi said. – The Daily Star

Hizbullah footage shows door, not rocket, placed on truck
Daily Star staff/Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: Hizbullah released footage late Wednesday which it said showed a garage door being transported after a blast earlier this week, disputing an Israeli military claim that it could be a rocket. The Lebanese Army and Hizbullah said one person was injured when a shell exploded in a house in the southern village of Tayr Filsay. Hizbullah said the incident occurred in the garage of one of its members. Israel has said the blast at a Hizbullah house showed munitions were being stockpiled in violation of a truce that ended a war between the enemies in 2006 and has complained to the UN about the incident. Israel’s army released video footage Tuesday it said was taken from an unmanned surveillance drone overlooking the scene shortly after the blast. The footage was taken by an infra-red camera in black and white. It showed frantic activity by dozens of people around the site with people loading at least one long object on a truck. The army then said two truckloads of munitions, including rockets were taken to another hiding place in a nearby village. UN peacekeepers based in the south (UNIFIL), charged with overseeing a truce between Israel and Hizbullah, and the Lebanese Army are investigating the incident. A truck parked inside the garage had been impounded by the Lebanese Army which was inspecting it in conjunction with UNIFIL, UNIFIL spokeswoman Yasmina Bouziane said.
“We must await the findings of the investigation before we can make any final assessment and conclusion,” she said. Footage aired by Hizbullah’s Al-Manar television Wednesday night showed UNIFIL troops watching as workers loaded a rolled-up metal door onto a truck. Al-Manar said the footage was taken in the nearby village of Deir Qanoun al-Nahr which it said was the location shown in the Israeli footage. “Here are soldiers from UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army. The place is empty except for the same truck and the alleged rocket. The surprise is that it is just an iron garage door of the shop where the explosion occurred,” a voice-over says during Al-Manar’s footage. Israel and the US accused Hizbullah of violating a UN arms ban in south Lebanon after a weapons cache exploded in the Khirbet Silim village in July. The UN said there were signs the stockpile belonged to Hizbullah and added that the presence of these arms was a violation of Security Council Resolution 1701. – Reuters

Lebanese Option Group insists Hizbullah violating Resolution 1701
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Option Group (LOG) lashed out at Hizbullah on Thursday, reiterating accusations that the group was a state within the state. ”Hizbullah is still free to wander in the region as it pleases, as if Resolution 1701 does not exist,” a LOG statement said. The group headed by Ahmad al-Assad also slammed the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and urged it to withdraw from south Lebanon. “UNIFIL are just there for show to cover up the violation of Resolution 1701,” the LOG statement said, in reference to the UN resolution, which put an end to the summer 2006 war with Israel.” – The Daily Star

AUB memorial ceremony honors late Ambassador Dimechkie
Daily Star staff/Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: The life and achievements of late Lebanese Ambassador Nadim Dimechkie were remembered on Wednesday evening at a memorial ceremony at the American University of Beirut’s Assembly Hall. The ceremony was attended by a host of dignitaries who had known the late ambassador. Dimechkie succumbed to pneumonia on March 31, 2009.
Among those present were Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, former Foreign Minister of Algeria and Undersecretary General of the UN Lakhdar Brahimi; chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Institute for Palestine Studies and president of the Makassed Philanthropic Islamic Association Hisham Nashabe; American University of Beirut president Peter Dorman; chair of the AUB Board of Trustees Philip Khoury; former dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences at AUB Huda Zurayk; as well as friends and family of the late ambassador.
Khoury opened the ceremony by lauding Dimechkie’s generosity to AUB when he was president of the AUB Alumni Association (1995-98), chairman of the AUB College Hall Fundraising Committee (1994-98), and chairman of the Scholarship Fundraising Campaign (1998-2003). “He is a reminder that we can make a difference in the lives of others and the institutions we care about,” said Khoury. – The Daily Star

Participants turn on each other at forum on women
By Dalila Mahdawi /Daily Star staff/Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: An elite group of Arab women gathered in Beirut Thursday for what was supposed to be a lively two-day forum on the status of women in the region, but which quickly descended into bitter exchanges between several attendees. Picking up the threads of last year’s meeting, the third annual New Arab Woman Forum (NAWF) brought together prominent women from across the Middle East to muse over Arab women’s poor political and economic participation and women social entrepreneurs, media workers and business leaders, as well as sexuality and Arab writers. But participants will more likely remember this year’s gathering as the date Lebanese journalist May Chidiac reduced Belgium’s first veiled MP, Mahinur Ozdemir, to tears.
During a panel on the role of media in shaping public opinion on women’s issues, Ozdemir spoke of her own experience with the Belgian media, who attacked her joining the Christian Democrats party when she wore the Muslim veil. Her presentation was met with scathing words from Chidiac, who called the Belgian-Turkish politician divisive and compared the veil to her two prosthetic limbs, the result of a car bomb assassination attempt in 2005. Chidiac also suggested Ozdemir’s presentation was uninteresting and off-topic, prompting tears from the politician.
Chidiac was in turn criticized by several members of the audience, who called her attack on Ozdemir unwarranted. “We all know the story of May Chidiac, and so we thank you for not telling us, but we don’t know her story and it’s interesting to hear what she has to say,” one participant interjected.
Some attendees took advantage of the heated discussion that followed to criticize the forum’s high-profile composition: At $300 a ticket, attendance at NAWF isn’t available to everyone. “Surely you have to include grassroots activists in such a conference or you’re excluding the majority of the region’s women,” said one participant who declined to be identified. “But how can they afford to pay?” Other participants regretted that the forum’s first panel on women in politics had been cut short.
During that discussion, Aman Kabbara Chaarani, president of the Lebanese Women’s Council, urged Beirut to adopt a quota system for women politicians and to implement international resolutions calling for gender equality. “Instead of moving ahead we are falling behind,” she warned, saying the Lebanese government lacked the political will to advance women’s rights. Kicking off the forum earlier, caretaker Education Minister Bahia Hariri said NAWF, organized by the Arab League, women’s magazine Al-Hasnaa and Al-Iktissad Wal Aamal Group, embodied “the pillars of rebirth to which the Arab countries and the Arab nation aspire today.” Sima Bahous, assistant secretary general for social affairs at the Arab League, outlined the main issues needed to further women’s rights in the Middle East. “Although we are very proud of the achievements of Arab women in the fields of education, labor, economic rights, politics and legislative bodies, these achievements still fall short of our aspirations and needs,” she said, pointing in particular to the region’s staggering illiteracy levels. Some 100 million Arabs, 67 percent of whom are women, are illiterate, according to the 2008 International Review of Education. Concerted efforts in the education, social welfare and health fields were needed, she said, adding that women’s economic and political participation also needed boosting. Despite recent victories by women in politics, overall participation in the region remains less than 9 percent, while economic participation stands at about 30 percent, Bahous said. An award ceremony honored former first lady of Lebanon Mona Hrawi, Ozdemir, Kuwaiti writer Leila Othman, and Saudi professor Suhair al-Quraishi for their efforts to promote women’s rights in the region.

Lebanon readies to break hummus, tabbouleh record
By Omar Katerji /Special to The Daily Star
Friday, October 16, 2009
BEIRUT: A press conference was held Thursday to promote the “Hummus and Tabbouleh are Lebanese” world-record-breaking attempt which is set to take place on October 24-25 in Saifi Market. The Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI) and the Lebanese Chamber of Commerce are working in partnership to create the world’s largest hummus and tabbouleh dishes to reaffirm the cultural dishes as being Lebanese.
Fady Abboud, president of ALI, addressed the conference saying: “We first noticed our foods’ piracy during the many international agricultural exhibitions that we attended, whereby Lebanese products were marketed under other appellations.” The record-breaking attempt hopes to lay claims to the dishes’ cultural heritage and dispel international belief that the dishes are Greek or Israeli in origin. “A lot of countries are trying to dishonestly appropriate these dishes and this in turn results in colossal losses,” Abboud added
The conference acknowledged that many Levantine and Middle Eastern regions also served hummus, but it claims that the first use of the name hummus occurred in Lebanon during the mid-1950s, with the first canned hummus originating in Lebanon in 1959 by Lebanese food brand Cortas.
Anthony al-Zoghby, Guinness world records spokesman for the event, said he hoped that the event of the [world’s-largest] hummus and tabbouleh will break the record, “especially since there is a great team working hard for the success of this event.” Visitors attending the event in Downtown Beirut will be invited to taste the finished product, which will consist entirely of fresh Lebanese produce. Around 8,000 parsley bouquets, 1.5 tons of hummus, 2.5 tons of lemon juice and 500 liters of olive oil will be used in creating the colossal dishes, which will be created by a team of 250 apprentice chefs overseen by renowned Chef Ramzi Choueiri. The two-day event, which opens its doors at 2:00 p.m. on October 24, will house two giant hummus and tabbouleh platters which will be prepared in a 600 square meter area in Saifi Market. The market will also contain a large exhibition area celebrating Lebanese products and will include artisans, handicrafts, souvenirs as well as entertainment from local artists.

Security Council spot carries risks
By The Daily Star
It’s been more than half a century since Lebanon was a member of the United Nations Security Council, but this unenviable piece of information was amended this week with our return to one of the world’s most influential political bodies.There has been enthusiasm in Lebanon for a coveted seat on the UNSC, but some have foreseen the problems that might arise during Lebanon’s tenure; a back-room discussion by the great powers for a replacement apparently went nowhere, after Saudi Arabia indicated it was reluctant to replace Lebanon on the council.
In the end, Lebanon received the votes of 180 out of 192 General Assembly members, and should remember this overwhelming level of confidence when it assumes its duties.
Few political events of this magnitude involve only positive aspects. There are plenty of minefields for Lebanon to navigate as it joins its 14 colleagues on the council. An obvious place to start is Iran’s nuclear issue: what will happen to Lebanon when the so-called P5-plus-One countries decide to vote on a resolution on Iran’s nuclear activities? Will Lebanon take a clear stand either way, or will it just opt for the “easy way out,” i.e. abstaining?
What will happen if the international community’s agenda vis-à-vis Syria is on the table in New York; what if the US and its allies are arrayed on one side, and the Syrians on the other? Vote with Washington? Politically costly. Vote with Damascus? Same result.
The enthusiasm of some Lebanese for a seat on the Security Council has known no bounds, but it’s known little wisdom as well. We were patched up last year by the Doha Accord, and we remain a fragile country, lacking proper political institutions. By joining the Security Council, we enter the realm of a politics where sound decision-making is an absolute must, yet when we look at our domestic scene, we can’t boast of much of a functioning decision-making process, while we lack the political stamina to ride out any nearby crisis in the region.
A fractious vote in the Security Council might be reflected here, in even more fractious politics, or worse. It’s a pessimistic outlook, but a realistic one. Our politicians, from across the entire spectrum, must recognize that they’re stuck together, in a single boat – they must formulate a process that prevents the country from splintering when there’s international disagreement.
The challenge for us is to prevent our local players from threatening civil peace, based on a Security Council action. It’s a high stakes benchmark of our performance, and one that involves real risks. Irrespective of these concerns, Lebanon has returned to the Security Council and we should monitor our performance there, since it’s an easily a place from which even more political turbulence can come our way.

Is the Obama effect turning the world against Israel?
By Yoel Marcus
Haaretz 16/10/09
The cancellation of the international air exercise with Turkey is no big deal. It harms the strategic interests and international standing of Turkey more than Israel. Even when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan explains his decision by saying the Israel Air Force killed children with phosphorous bombs during Operation Cast Lead, he is harming his country's security interests more than Israel's.
During the battles against the Kurds in southern Turkey, to say nothing of the Armenians, the cruelty involved would not put Turkey on the list of candidates for the Nobel Prize in Mercy. But don't expect any television series on this subject in Istanbul.
The NATO air drill, with the participation of the American army, is first and foremost of benefit to Turkey's security and its drive to join the European Union. But Turkey's rapprochement with Syria brings it closer to the Axis of Evil than to the EU.
If Erdogan's intention is to weaken the supreme authority of the Turkish army and its ability to defend democracy in that country, it may be wise to tell him now that he shouldn't mess with Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's heritage - which entrusted the army with guarding both democracy and the secular nature of the regime.
Ataturk would turn over in his grave were he to find that the republic he founded is on its way to becoming part of the Axis of Evil.
Over the past year, Israel has found itself having to fight for its honor and reputation, and has become the world's doormat. As if Israel's history of wars (about one every six years), two intifadas and many terror attacks on its civilian population were not enough suffering, Hamas rained Qassam rockets and mortar shells on the communities in the south of the country for eight years.
No one spoke out against this, and no one's conscience was pricked, not that of Erdogan or of any other bleeding hearts, wherever they may be.
Moreover, Hamas fighters carried out a massacre of Fatah supporters in Gaza and the entire world watched as the functionaries of Fatah were tossed to their deaths from the rooftops. Not one Islamic country demanded Hamas stop the massacre.
How is it that no Goldstone panels were set up to examine the destruction Hamas sowed in Gaza or the murderous attacks that the terrorist organizations perpetrated on women and children in the heart of Israel?
Just as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is busy arranging an agreement and turns out to be the most level-headed leader in the region, King Abdullah of Jordan suddenly warns us that he is planning to recall his ambassador to Amman.
With all due respect to his majesty, he should be more restrained in view of the constant threat that the Palestinians will flood his kingdom. He also has no reason to rejoice over the connection between Syria and Turkey. It was via Syria that Iran transported the missiles and weapons it sent to Hamas and Hezbollah. And it was Israel's ultimatum that prevented a Syrian invasion of Jordan during Black September.
But now Israel finds itself having to defend its honor and reputation. What has happened? Is the whole world really against us once again?
In my opinion, only one thing has changed. It is the emergence of the "Obama effect," similar to the theory that when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil it can cause a tornado in Texas.
In the eyes of Israel's enemies, the election of Barack Obama has turned what was considered the unwavering American support of Israel into something that is not taken for granted any more. And when the nuclear-producing Ahmedinejad calls the Holocaust a lie, it is clear whom he is threatening.
The "Obama effect" is encouraging Iran. Dialogue? Go for it. The Iranians are known for their salesmanship - when someone asks the owner of a carpet store the time, he will end up buying three rugs before getting an answer.
Anyone who expected Obama to put Israel at the top of his priorities made a mistake. After eight months in the White House, one can see that his emissary George Mitchell has drawn a blank.
But Obama has no intention of subduing Israel. He is a president who believes in dialogue but who can be resolute when necessary. For Israel's good.
Netanyahu took a giant step forward when he proposed two states for two peoples. But that is not enough for them and they want more and more. To be more accurate, they themselves do not know what they want.
Gaza will be just Gaza? And the West Bank will be just the West Bank? And will there be no union between them?
The problem is that there is no Palestinian leader today who can speak in the name of a Palestinian state. When they were at Camp David, Ehud Barak offered Yasser Arafat some 97 percent of the territories, and Arafat was the only person who had the authority to decide.
But instead of holding talks, he initiated the second intifada during which he himself died under mysterious circumstances.
Go to Washington, Bibi was advised time and again. He went and he came back; he went and came back and offered them what he had proposed during his speech at Bar-Ilan University.
Mahmoud Abbas is acting out of anger. The more we help the West Bank to flourish and to take care of its security, the more he bad-mouths us, and the same holds true of what he has done in the wake of the Goldstone report.
Still, the fact that the Palestinians are once again missing an opportunity does not free Netanyahu of the need to do everything possible to implement his plan for two states for two peoples. That is the only way for him to be recognized as Israel's leader.


Nadim Gemayel: Aoun is only the illustration of blockage
Date: October 16th, 2009/Source: LBC
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel said Thursday that MP Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, is only the illustration of the blockage not the real cause behind it as he is using the demands of Hizbullah for personal purposes. In an interview with the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation, Gemayel noted that “Aoun did not talk, in his speech of the commemoration of October 13 martyrs, about the Lebanese detained in Syrian prisons,” adding that the ceremony was used to launch positions against corruption. Gemayel, member of the Kataeb’s political office, accused those who were claiming the liberation of the circumscription of Ashrafieh during the June 7 parliamentary elections are currently subject to the Shiite voice in many regions. The son of martyr President Bashir Gemayel expressed support to Premier-designate Saad Hariri “for the Lebanon First slogan that projects the establishment of a strong state and an army under the authority of the President,” noting that Almustaqbal Movement has the right to nominate candidates for any region. As for the Saudi Syrian summit that occurred on September 17 in Damascus, MP Gemayel noted that “the Syrian statement that followed the summit is different that of Saudi Arabia.”
Gemayel also refused the formation of a majority government or a cabinet that includes a veto power to the minority, which is constituted by the third of cabinet seats plus one.

Thanks, but no thanks
October 15, 2009
Now Lebanon
Saudi and Syrian newspapers recently suggested the fix for Lebanon’s ills is reunification with Syria. Thanks. AFP PHOTO/LOUAI BESHARA
A very sinister opinion piece was published in the Saudi Daily Al Riyadh on Monday – and then reproduced on Wednesday in the Syrian government-run mouthpiece Al Watan – in which the argument was made for re-uniting Syria and Lebanon into the romantic entity that many Arab nationalists have salivated over for decades.
Sinister because it is timely – there are no coincidences in this part of the world – that such a piece should be posted in the wake of the twin ‘summits’ that saw Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visit Riyadh during Eid al Fitr, and Saudi King Abdullah return the courtesy by going to Damascus last week. No one is suggesting that it was a total love-in, but we are all grown up enough to see that the balance of power is changing in a region that realizes it will have to adapt to the idea of a nuclear Iran and what that entails.
Lebanon was surely on the agenda, and it is a safe bet to assume that President Assad will have tried to extract as much Lebanese juice out of the talks as possible. And why not? The Saudis have bigger fish to fry – seeing as they have Al Qaeda in their midst and could soon be staring down the barrel of a missile silo. What better time to go shopping for Lebanon than now?
So while we’re at it, why not float the timeworn argument to regional readers that Lebanon would be wise to re-hook its horse to the Syrian wagon. The writer suggested that a more rigorous Syria could shore-up Lebanon’s fractious behavior. After all, he wrote, Damascus has a system of “governance.” He didn’t stop there though. There were of course quid pro quos on offer for this bizarre joint venture, the major ones being that Lebanon could enjoy serious Syrian investment while Syria could tap into Lebanon’s talent for rolling out tourism projects. But there were also ideological reasons. Lebanon, the article said, has no “Arabism,” a deficiency that would be swiftly remedied by absorption into the Baathist fold.
Of course the person, or persons, behind this flight of fancy knew they were penning nothing more than an editorial wet dream. Indeed, ever since that arch plotter (and SSNP founder) Antoun Saadeh was propped up against a wall and summarily executed in 1949, the Lebanese have had plenty of opportunity, including nearly 30 years of Syrian occupation, to reunite in the spirit of brotherly love. There was even a special location in Anjar set up for just such activities.
But to anyone who was reading and thought, “by god, now there’s an idea!” we say this: Yes we (Lebanese) may be fractious, some of us may be Arab-lite, and yes we might base our economy on tourism, banking secrecy and building apartments that 95% of the population can’t afford, but, for what its worth, our democratic elections – yes we have those too – demonstrated that the majority, not to mention the “orange” segment of the opposition, voted for the forces that were instrumental in saying good riddance to Damascus.

Is Hezbollah finally on the back foot?
Hanin Ghaddar , October 16, 2009
Now Lebanon/The Teirfelsay explosion has, once again, raised concerns over Hezbollah’s activities in South Lebanon. An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) video was released on Wednesday showing aerial footage of Hezbollah operatives immediately closing down the area around the warehouse where the explosion took place, driving in two trucks and removing weaponry from the site.
The next day, Hezbollah denied the Israeli pictures with the party’s Al-Manar television station broadcasting its own footage taken in daylight, showing men outside a garage putting a rolled up metal shutter into a truck and being monitored by a Lebanese soldier and two UNIFIL peacekeepers.
Either way, the incident, and a similar one that took place this summer in Kherbet Selem, shows that Hezbollah is being monitored and scrutinized by the international community, UNIFIL, the Israelis and even the Lebanese army, and that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 may just be working.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been suffering a number of military, political, and financial setbacks. The party is also no doubt anxiously observing regional developments between Iran and the US, and Syria and Saudi Arabia. In addition, the party’s aura of secrecy, purity and invincibility may have lost some of its luster.
High points
In Spring 2000, Hezbollah arguably was at its most popular, when, on May 24, 2000, the IDF unconditionally withdrew from its so-called security zone in southern Lebanon.
Ever since, even with its so-called Divine Victory in 2006, the party’s image as squeakily clean and oh-so-noble guardians of the nation’s dignity and defenders of its borders has taken body blow after body blow.
Militarily, Hezbollah’s hands are tied in the south of the Litani River because of Resolution 1701, so the party is setting up its main defensive line north of the Litani. As Hezbollah relies considerably on short-range rockets (Katyusha), fired from launching pads south of the Litani, its military punch has been weakened. With long-range missiles still not totally reliable, Hezbollah might not have the same capability of firing rockets that it did in 2006.
Hezbollah’s support base within the Shia community in Lebanon, accepted the “Divine Victory” as long as it would not be repeated. The damage and death inflicted upon this community was a very painful price and Hezbollah would think twice before starting another war with Israel. It is worth mentioning that the party still hasn’t yet fulfilled the pledge to revenge the death of one of their key leaders, Imad Mugniyah, who was assassinated more than a year ago in Syria, presumably because of its fear of Israeli retaliation.
The Iranian factor
On the political level, hopes of the birth of a new government in Lebanon, set off by the Saudi-Syrian summit last week, have started to decline as no measurable progress has been achieved. No one knows to what context Lebanon was discussed; however, as Hezbollah’s reactions to the summit were vague and formal, one can assume that Iran hasn’t given the green light for the cabinet formation.
Iran was certainly on the agenda as the Saudis sought to coax Syria back into the Arab fold, namely through the Arab Peace Initiative. The Saudis are aware that the process will be lengthy and Syria is still not ready, nor able to “leave” its most powerful ally.
But Iran is also moving in a different direction and using the negotiations with the West to buy more time for its nuclear program. Hezbollah is certainly looking suspiciously at the second meeting between Iran, the United States, Russia and France on October 19 at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
In any case, whether these negotiations lead to confrontation or accord, Hezbollah will be either sacrificed or used in a regional confrontation. It’s a lose-lose situation.
Yet another blow
The 2009 parliamentary elections constituted a large blow to the party and its supporters. After continuous promises of victory, March 14’s victory left Hezbollah defeated and vulnerable.
The setback came one year after the May 7 crisis, when Hezbollah-led gunmen from the Amal Movement and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) took to the streets to overturn a government bid to dismantle its autonomous phone network.
Although hailed as a “glorious day” by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the repercussions of Hezbollah turning its guns “inwards” still haunt the Shia community.
Those who live in Dahiyeh, the mainly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut and who work in blue-collar and poorly-paid jobs in other areas of Beirut, have begun to feel the resentment over what was tantamount to an attempted coup. They have been tarred with Hezbollah’s brush whether they support the party or not. Jobs, mainly in Sunni-owned companies, have been lost, and livelihoods are on the line.
Financial fall out
In the predominantly-Sunni Gulf states, where Lebanese Shia have been working for years, in some cases providing for more than one family, contracts, visas and work permits have suddenly became more difficult to renew or obtain. This month, 300, mostly Shia, Lebanese have been forced to leave the UAE. The deportations are likely the result of attempts to cut off supplies of funding to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, financially, the Shia community was rocked by the bankruptcy of Salah Ezzeddine, a man with a hitherto pristine reputation and a Hezbollah supporter. The upshot of all this has been a localized economic meltdown in Dahiyeh. An Internal Security Forces (ISF) source and several Dahiyeh residents have reported an increase in crime, especially prostitution and drug dealing, but also street crime such as purse snatching and car theft. To make matters worse, the global financial crisis, coupled with Iran’s internal political and financial problems, means that Hezbollah cannot rely financially on Iran as it used to before 2006. Discipline may have been affected as a result. The talk is of Hezbollah morphing from the well-drilled unit it claimed it was into a street militia similar to the Amal Movement, the SSNP or the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in Lebanon during the civil war. The party’s military wing is even understood to have dropped its recruitment standards in the wake of the 2006 war. Talk of loutish behavior on the streets of Beirut, such as last week’s stabbing in Ain al-Remmaneh, is increasing and people are starting to complain of corruption and intimidation. Hezbollah is still very strong politically and militarily. However, these blows might harm the party on the long run, and thus lead to a weakened organization. Maybe it is time for the Party of God to start communicating with other Lebanese.

National Bloc: obstructers contribute to demeaning Lebanon
Date: October 15th, 2009
Source: NNA
National Bloc party pointed in a statement Thursday that the Lebanese who block government formation and use weapons as their chief means contribute to demeaning Lebanon and service Syrian interests.The National Bloc, in the executive committee meeting headed by it leader
Naharnet/Carlos Edde, criticized an article recently published by the Syrian al-Watan daily, discussing joining Lebanon to Syria because of its inability to establish a state and form the cabinet. The statement asserted that Syria has a group of allies in Lebanon, “obstructing the constitutional issuance by force, threats, violence and extortion, giving us lessons that Lebanon cannot govern itself.”It assured that the Lebanese can form any sort of government they want but Hizbullah weapons are preventing them from doing so. “If Syria had security hubs and a party with more weapons than the whole Syrian army, the regime could never form the cabinet,” added the statement.The National Bloc described Hizbullah’s statement following the Teirfelsay explosion as “a sample of what the country is suffering from and the extent of power it reached.” Two days ago, an explosion tore out a garage at Teirfelsay, south of Lebanon, injuring one, according to a statement by the Lebanese Army. Investigations are ongoing to uncover the nature and causes of the explosion. “Weapons gave Hizbullah victory over its compatriots. Eventually, weapons would only harm those who bear them and give those who don’t believe in Lebanon’s independence an alibi to destruct the nation,” concluded the statement.

Strugar: Investigation over Tayr Felsay incident is ongoing
Date: October 16th, 2009
Source: Assafir /UNIFIL’s official spokesperson Milos Strugar announced Friday that the international forces’ investigation in last week’s explosion in south Lebanon is ongoing in coordination with the Lebanese Army, Assafir newspaper reported. Strugar, United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon official of the political, media and civil issues, noted: “We are now in the phase of analyzing information and evidences to unveil the circumstances and causes of the incident.” Conflicting reports emerged about the causes and circumstances of an explosion that occurred last Monday in the house of Abdel Nasser Issa in the southern village of Tayr Felsay. The UNIFIL official asserted that the investigation conducted by a joint international Lebanese team in the southern district of Tyr discovered the pickup truck showed in the video that was broadcasted by many Lebanese televisions. According to Strugar, this joint investigation team found additional evidences that are being analyzed so the accurate final results will be exposed to the public over this case.

Sovereign Lebanon
Date: October 15th, 2009
Future News
The UN General Assembly’s election to Lebanon as a non-permanent member of the Security Council for a two-year term starting Jan.1, 2010-2011 is not an ordinary event that one could overlook. In addition that the event is a clear recognition from the international community that Lebanon enjoys international aspects of an independent and sovereign state, also in reality it has significant political indications stressing that international obstacles and opposing views against Lebanon have crumpled, or at least suspended until the Lebanese reach an agreement on crossing their country to the “State.”
The election of Lebanon to the non permanent seat at the UN Security Council would be an exceptional event to win the International Community’s trust. Lebanon would also be present at the UN General Assembly to take part in the international decision-making as an efficient member.
The fact that Arab brotherly countries unanimously backed Lebanon’s candidacy is conspicuous recognition of the importance of such a tiny country on the map, however its assignment to this task will cast serious complications related to the Arab situation, whether the tension between some Arab countries such as (Syria - Iraq), or internal tribulations like in (Yemen, Sudan, Iraq ...), and above all the Palestinian cause.
The presence of Lebanon in the Security Council enable it to deliver its messages and reach out in a clear and effective ways in many issues, particularly in terms of the application of international resolutions, notably resolution 1701, which is a minimum guarantee in the face of the bloody aggression of the Zionist enemy.
Finally, we can say that Lebanon embarked on a journey to regain its presence on the international political map, and to crystallize its vigorous diplomacy which has always been one of its famous traits within its Arab neighboring countries. Taking into considerations all the signs that herald of a bright prosperous future, Lebanon’s stances must be effective in the upcoming causes and international decisions that will emerge during its mandate.
Fortunately, Lebanon is not predestined to remain devoid of a foreign policy that used to be decided by the Syrian intelligence officers, and is no longer force to be subject to international leverage. Lebanon’s recent achievement is the culmination of strenuous struggles and sacrifices of the "Cedar Revolution" that proved to the whole world that the Lebanese are alive and Lebanon is not a week, dilapidated, and crumbling country.
At a time when the whole Lebanese are enjoying the glorious taste of such achievement we realize how much the country is in deep need for the martyr President Rafic Hariri and his Arab and international dynamism.
Now we truly-bitterly recognize what Rafic Hariri assassin did when he blew up the heart of Lebanon on 14 February 2005
Israel's Secret War on Hezbollah

Iran's proxy army in Lebanon will think twice before launching another round of missile attacks.
Text .By RONEN BERGMAN
Wall Street Journal 16/10/09
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574475111169141066.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
On Monday, a secret Hezbollah munitions bunker in South Lebanon blew up under mysterious circumstances, injuring a senior official in the organization. This is the second such incident in recent months. The first occurred on July 14, when an explosion destroyed a major Hezbollah munitions dump in the South Lebanese village of Hirbet Salim. Hezbollah immediately pointed fingers at the Mossad. Whether or not Israel was to blame, the explosion caused Hezbollah considerable discomfort by proving that it was in flagrant violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids stockpiling weapons south of the Litani River.
The U.N. issued a strongly worded rebuke and sent representatives to investigate. But their efforts were thwarted by Hezbollah fighters, who, with the assistance of Lebanese troops, prevented the foreigners from examining the site. This caused further embarrassment to Lebanon, as it exposed the army's lack of neutrality and the active aid that it extends to Hezbollah.
The episode also led to heightened tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. The specter of renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah looms as large today as it has at any time since the end of the Lebanon war in August 2006. Yet senior military officers in Israel's Northern Command are confident that the embarrassing outcome of the last round will not be repeated.
"By all means, let the Hezbollah try," one officer told me two weeks ago when I asked if he was concerned about the possibility of warfare. "The welcome party that we are preparing for them is one that they will remember for a very long time." That sentiment is shared by many of his colleagues.
The recent explosions have highlighted the weakened geopolitical status of Hezbollah, a diminishment which no one could have foreseen at the end of the last war. In 2006, on both sides of the border—and elsewhere in the Middle East—Hezbollah was seen as having triumphed. Not only was it able to withstand the vastly superior invading Israeli force, but it also inflicted heavy military casualties and brought civilian life in northern Israel to a standstill with its rockets. At the end of the war, a commission of inquiry was set up in Israel to investigate the military and political failure. A number of senior army officers resigned, and Israel's deterrence power was seen as having sustained a severe blow.
If the 2006 war underlined the military might of Hezbollah—a repeat, in a sense, of Hezbollah's success in driving out the Israeli occupying forces from South Lebanon in May 2000—it also forced Israel to include Hezbollah in any assessment of possible responses to an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear installations.
As part of its combat doctrine, which eschews reliance on reinforcements and resupply, Hezbollah has stockpiled its weapons throughout Lebanon, but particularly near the Israeli border. According to current Israeli intelligence estimates, Hezbollah has an arsenal of 40,000 rockets, including Iranian-made Zelzal, Fajr-3, Fajr-5, and 122 mm rockets (some of which have cluster warheads) and Syrian-made 302 mm rockets. Some of its rockets can reach greater Tel Aviv. Hezbollah also has a number of highly advanced weapons systems, including antiaircraft missiles, that constitute a threat to Israeli combat aircraft.
But all is not rosy for Hezbollah. After the war, considerable dissatisfaction with the organization was voiced inside Lebanon. Many blamed its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, for Israel's retaliatory bombardments that caused widespread damage. Nasrallah stated that had he known Israel would respond as forcefully as it did, he would have thought twice before ordering the abduction of the two Israeli soldiers—the act that sparked the conflict.
Harsh criticism of Hezbollah also came from an unexpected source: Tehran. The Iranian strategy calls for Hezbollah to play two roles. One is to instigate minor border provocations. The other is to launch, on Tehran's command, a full-scale retaliatory attack should Israel target Iran's nuclear facilities. The 2006 war met neither criterion, and, as the Iranians complained, merely served to reveal the extent of Hezbollah's military capabilities.
Then, in February 2008, Imad Mughniyeh, the organization's military commander and Nasrallah's close associate, was killed in a car bomb in Damascus. The assassination of the man who topped the FBI's most-wanted list prior to Osama bin Laden was a severe blow to morale, as well as to Hezbollah's strategic capabilities. Nasrallah was convinced that the Mossad was responsible, and vowed to take revenge "outside of the Israel-Lebanon arena."
The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security agency, which is also responsible for protecting the country's legations abroad, has been on high alert ever since. But as of today, Hezbollah has not exacted its revenge. This fact was a topic of discussions at a high-level secret forum of Israel's intelligence services that took place from late July to early September.
Israeli officials raised four possible reasons for Hezbollah's failure to act, all of which reflect its current weakness.
First, no replacement has been found for Mughniyeh, whose strategic brilliance, originality and powers of execution are sorely missed by Hezbollah.
Second, Israel's intelligence coverage of Iran and Hezbollah is far superior today to what it was in the past. Planned attacks, including one targeting the Israeli Embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan, have all been foiled. The Israeli security services have warned Israeli businessmen abroad of possible abduction attempts by Hezbollah. They also shared information with Egyptian authorities that led to the arrest of members of a Hezbollah network who intended to kill Israeli tourists in Sinai. The arrest of these operatives resulted in sharp public exchanges between Egypt, Hezbollah and its Iranian masters, when Nasrallah admitted that these, in fact, were his men.
Third, Nasrallah cannot afford to be viewed domestically as the cause of yet another retaliation against Lebanon. Any act of revenge that he contemplates needs to be carefully calibrated. On the one hand, it needs to hurt the enemy and be spectacular enough to stoke Hezbollah pride. On the other hand, it cannot be so murderous as to cause Israel to respond with force. To complicate matters further, Israel has made it clear that because Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, despite the fact that the party that it backed lost in the recent election, any Hezbollah action against Israel would be viewed as an action taken by the Lebanese government. Thus Israel would regard Lebanese infrastructure as a legitimate target for a military response.
Finally, there are the Iranians. Their primary focus is on proceeding with their nuclear program without unnecessary distractions. Tehran's main concern is that a terror attack that can be linked to Iran would result in the arrest of its agents overseas, who are currently procuring equipment for its uranium-enrichment centrifuges.
Tehran has avoided direct involvement in foreign terrorism ever since 1996, when a group of Iranians were convicted in Germany of murdering political opponents of the Iranian regime. And unlike in the past (as, for instance, in the case of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires in retaliation for the assassination of Nasrallah's predecessor), it is now reluctant to place intelligence resources at Hezbollah's disposal. This is a serious blow to Hezbollah, which is not yet able to function as a full-fledged independent operational organization internationally.
Hezbollah is also clearly aware of the severe blow in terms of power and prestige that the Iranian mullahs suffered as a result of the massive protests following June's presidential election. Automatic support from Tehran is no longer a certainty. For now, at least, the Iranian hardliners have troubles of their own.
In short, despite the fact that Hezbollah today is substantially stronger in purely military terms than it was three years ago, its political stature and its autonomy have been significantly reduced. It is clear that Nasrallah is cautious and he will weigh his options very carefully before embarking on any course of action that might lead to all-out war with Israel. There are some experts in Israel who believe that even Hezbollah's retaliatory role in the Iranian game plan is currently in question.
Whether or not this is the case, all of this is being considered in Jerusalem as part of Israel's calculations about whether to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
**Mr. Bergman, a correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, is the author of the "The Secret War With Iran" (Free Press, 2008).

Terrorism: The unfinished war
By JONATHAN SPYER
Jerusalem Post/ 16.10.09
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1255547729394&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
The explosion in the south Lebanese village of Tayr Felseir offers the latest evidence of the way in which Hizbullah is rebuilding its infrastructure following the Second Lebanon War in 2006. In the pre-2006 period, Hizbullah maintained its military infrastructure in open countryside areas often declared off-limits to all but the movement's personnel. The rebuilt infrastructure, by contrast, has been constructed within the fabric of civilian life in south Lebanon. This process has taken place largely undisturbed by the Lebanese and UN military personnel conspicuously deployed throughout the south.
Just over a year ago, The Jerusalem Post described some of the methods used by Hizbullah in building its new infrastructure. Fortifications were being constructed in private homes whose owners had left the south for the Beirut area. The owners were offered friendly advice not to inquire too closely regarding the alterations. Evidence suggests that this and similar practices have continued apace.
Hizbullah's decision to make use of populated areas is primarily a result of the increased presence of UNIFIL and LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces) personnel in the area south of the Litani River, a presence which was enforced under the terms of UN Resolution 1701. Of course, the movement has made use of civilian-populated areas in the past. During the 2006 war, Hizbullah often launched Katyushas from villages (generally non-Shi'ite ones). But the placing of arms caches and permanent positions within residential areas has served to render the renewed military infrastructure largely off-limits to international inspection. Past experience indicates that the embarrassing publicity deriving from the Tayr Felsair explosion is unlikely to alter this picture.
This week's explosion was not the first time in recent months that Hizbullah ordnance has accidentally detonated in south Lebanon. On July 14, a series of large explosions took place in the village of Khirbet Silm. The events that followed and the UNIFIL investigation into the explosions show the extent to which both the international forces and the Lebanese Army are adopting a "live and let live" attitude to Hizbullah's preparations for the next war.
At the time, Hizbullah actions in Khirbet Silm followed a similar pattern to those observed on Monday in Tayr Felsair. First, Hizbullah agents removed the evidence. As this was being done, a number of "outraged residents" from the area held demonstrations to prevent UNIFIL troops from inspecting the scene. Peacekeepers eventually conducted their investigation, and concluded that the site at Khirbet Silm contained large quantities of 107 mm. Katyusha rockets, heavy machine gun rounds and mortar tubes of a type used by Hizbullah.
Investigators from the international force also discovered that the site had been permanently guarded by Hizbullah personnel. They recorded that all this constituted a "serious violation" of Resolution 1701.
Beyond this declaration, the investigation has had no discernible result. No one was ever named, much less held accountable. Nor did UNIFIL's modus operandi change to take into account the likelihood that if there was an arms depot in Khirbet Silm it probably wasn't the only one.
UNIFIL REMAINS deployed mainly in unpopulated areas. It enters Shi'ite villages only with an escort of Lebanese army personnel. Its vehicle and air patrols, taking place along recognized patrol paths and in rural areas, have produced some tangible results in terms of discovering unused bunkers and old munitions. But the international force, which maintains no independent checkpoints, does its best to stay out of the way of Hizbullah and the civilian population.
Except for cases where there are obvious signs pointing to the presence of ordnance - such as when a large explosion occurs - UNIFIL simply prefers not to act on the evidence. And there is no indication that the latest explosion at Tayr Falseir will change this situation. Rather, it is more likely that UNIFIL's investigation will be rapidly forgotten and the results quietly filed away as the media moves on.
Even more problematic is the role being played by the LAF. The Lebanese army and UNIFIL were prevented from entering the house in Tayr Falseir immediately following the explosion. Once LAF representatives were permitted to enter, they swiftly endorsed Hizbullah's version of events.
The Lebanese army, which is much more visible on the ground than UNIFIL, undoubtedly has a far better sense of what is really going on. The problem with the LAF becoming an obstacle to Hizbullah rearming and reorganizing itself in south Lebanon is that the army is a deeply divided organization. Many of its members are sympathetic to the "resistance." Thirty percent of the LAF officer corps, and a majority of its rank and file, are Shi'ite, like Hizbullah. More fundamentally, the official position of the LAF is one of "endorsement" of Hizbullah's "right to resist." The LAF defines Israel as its "primary antagonist and enemy." So neither UNIFIL, nor the LAF, nor their respective employers - the United Nations and the government of Lebanon - are going to be standing in the way of Hizbullah's program of rearming in populated areas any time soon.
Ultimately, the situation in southern Lebanon is a facet of a larger problem, namely, the existence of a Hizbullah state within a state, which is answerable to no one but the movement's leadership and its Iranian patrons. Since the mini-civil war of May 2008, it has been clearer than ever that there is no force in the country able to challenge Hizbullah's independent foreign and "defense" policies. The movement maintains a parallel army, parallel security services, a parallel communications network and also, of course, independent educational and social structures.
The winners of last June's elections in Lebanon do not like the current situation, but they are helpless to prevent it, as they have not even succeeded in forming a government since their victory. The extent to which the Hizbullah state within a state is subservient to Iran or maintains its own agenda remains debated by analysts. But there is no debate that it is entirely free of any control or supervision from the official Lebanese state.
Preparations for the next round of fighting are going on daily, undisturbed, in the heart of the populated areas south of the Litani River, and the occasional "work accident" is the only reminder the world receives that it is happening. UNIFIL conducts its patrols and doesn't get in the way, and the LAF plays an even more ambiguous role. Anyone who thought that the war between Hizbullah and Israel ended on August 14, 2006 was surely mistaken.
**The writer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya