LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 11/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 6:27-38. Do to others as you would have them do to you. For if you love those who love you, what credit is that to you? Even sinners love those who love them.  And if you do good to those who do good to you, what credit is that to you? Even sinners do the same. If you lend money to those from whom you expect repayment, what credit (is) that to you? Even sinners lend to sinners, and get back the same amount. But rather, love your enemies and do good to them, and lend expecting nothing back; then your reward will be great and you will be children of the Most High, for he himself is kind to the ungrateful and the wicked. Be merciful, just as (also) your Father is merciful. Stop judging and you will not be judged. Stop condemning and you will not be condemned. Forgive and you will be forgiven. Give and gifts will be given to you; a good measure, packed together, shaken down, and overflowing, will be poured into your lap. For the measure with which you measure will in return be measured out to you."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Gebran Bassil’s beard. By: Michael Young/Now Lebanon/September 10/09
 
Naim Qassem/Now Lebanon/September 9, 2009
AsharqLWhere is Michel Aoun?/September 10/09 
Bassil is the cause of the problem/Future News/September 10/09
Spare us the agony of this freak-show called 'governance' in Beirut/The Daily Star/September 10/09   
As always: It's the Syrians, stupid!/By: Michael Young/September 10/09   

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for September 10/09 
Saniora to Rename Hariri-Naharnet
Geagea Says LF will Rename Hariri, Opposition Against Cabinet for Regional Considerations-Naharnet
Hariri Steps Down as PM-designate-Naharnet
Salloukh Urges Arabs to Elect Lebanon as Security Council Member-Naharnet
5 Men Charged with Involvement in Illegal Internet Case
-Naharnet
Official source says Hariri stepped down due to Iran’s propositions, opposition’s demands/Now Lebanon
Sfeir to the Vatican Next Week-Naharnet
National Block: if Hizbullah to run the public affairs, farewell Lebanon/Future News
Samir Frangieh: Obstruction to keep Lebanon a bargaining card-Future News
Fadlallah for serious dialogue to reach consensus-Future News
Chamoun slams opposition’s obstruction schemes-Future News
Siniora will not return to power-National
Berri Holds on to Hariri as Prime Minister-Naharnet
Bassil: Problem is with Hariri, Not with Suleiman-Naharnet
5 Men Charged with Involvement in Illegal Internet Case-Naharnet
Hariri Confirms Holding on to the PM-Designate's Powers Given by the Constitution
-Naharnet
Kenaan Accuses Hariri of Violating Constitutional Norms in Cabinet Lineup
-Naharnet
Sayyed calls for presidential control of key ministries-Daily Star
Egypt, Syria sign agreement to pipe gas to Lebanon-Daily Star
Ban urges Israel to compensate Lebanon-Daily Star
Unexploded hand grenade discovered in Ouzai-Daily Star
Fadlallah announces date for 2009 Eid al-Fitr-Daily Star
Sidon plant suspected of using Israeli equipment raided-Daily Star
Beirut forum on women's rights in Arab world to address everything from politics to sexuality-Daily Star
AUB engineers become stars of reality TV show-Daily Star

Ramadan donations provide $4 million life-line for Dar Al-Ajaza Al-Islamia hospital
-Daily Star

Hariri Steps Down as PM-designate
Naharnet/Saad Hariri announced on Thursday that he was stepping down as Premier-designate after the opposition rejected the cabinet lineup he proposed earlier this week.
"Given that my commitment to forming a government of national unity has run up against difficulties that everyone now knows about, I announce that I have informed the president of the republic that I have abandoned trying to form a government," he told journalists following talks with President Michel Suleiman in Beiteddine. "I hope that this decision will be in the interests of Lebanon and will permit a relaunch of dialogue," Hariri said. The announcement comes after 73 days of fruitless efforts to form a government following the June 7 elections.
Suleiman will have to start consultations from scratch with lawmakers on naming a new premier. "When it comes to principles I am very stubborn and will never ignore political issues related to Lebanon's independence and stability," Hariri told an Iftar in Qoreitem on Wednesday. He revealed that he would take "decisive steps in the coming two or three days that are in the best interest of the country." The daily An-Nahar said Thursday that the major obstacle preventing a cabinet deal is the telecommunications ministry issue and the Free Patriotic Movement's insistence on the reappointment of Jebran Bassil in the same post. It said that despite other knots facing government formation, including the opposition's keenness to name its ministers, the telecoms portfolio remained the major problem. Hariri on Monday presented a cabinet lineup for President Michel Suleiman's approval. The proposal, however, was quickly rejected by the opposition. The premier-designate, nevertheless, said he was still open to negotiations with the opposition concerning the cabinet makeup. Hariri reiterated that any government proposal "should be in proportion to the outcome of the June 7 parliamentary elections." Following the Iftar banquet, Hariri met with Hizbullah official Hussein Khalil and AMAL movement representative Ali Hassan Khalil. An-Nahar on Thursday said Bassil was "excluded" from the meeting in Qoreitem which lasted well into the early morning hours. As-Safir newspaper, however, said Hariri's advisor, Nader Hariri, conveyed to Bassil an invitation on behalf of the premier-designate to join the meeting in Qoreitem. It said that following consultations with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, it was decided that Bassil "apologizes" for not attending the Hariri-Khalils meeting. Al-Akhbar newspaper, for its part, said talks between Hariri and the two Khalils failed to produce a deal. "Talks ended with no understanding on any point. They did not even agree on a new meeting date," a well-informed source said.
Beirut, 10 Sep 09, 08:33

Official source says Hariri stepped down due to Iran’s propositions, opposition’s demands
September 10, 2009
Now Lebanon/An official source told NOW on Thursday that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s decision to step down from his post was due to certain parties obstructing the cabinet formation, and revealed the reasons behind it, saying that Iran used Lebanon as a bargaining chip, while the opposition refused to offer concessions on its demands.
“Iran is the first reason why Hariri stepped down, since the Islamic Republic is playing an obstructing role in Lebanon to pressure the West in hopes it would reach an agreement with it, especially after Tehran has submitted a package of propositions to the West,” the source said. He added that the opposition is still adamant about being granted unrealistic demands, specifically those of Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, “who is still insisting on reappointing [Telecommunications Minister Gebran] Bassil to the same position.”

Sfeir to the Vatican Next Week

Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir heads a delegation to the Vatican next Thursday for a meeting with Pope Benedict XVI, the National News Agency reported. NNA said Sfeir will also attend on Sept. 19 a gathering between the pope and patriarchs of eastern Catholic churches to discuss among other things the situation of Christians in the Middle East. Diman sources told NNA that during this trip, Sfeir will not visit France although he had received an invitation from President Nicolas Sarkozy. On Sunday, Sfeir will move back from his summer residence in Diman to the seat of the Maronite church in Bkirki. The patriarch will tour the region of Batroun on his way to Bkirki. He will visit several churches in the region, according to NNA. Beirut, 10 Sep 09, 14:49

Berri Holds on to Hariri as Prime Minister
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri will not let go of Saad Hariri as prime minister in the event the Mustaqbal Movement leader decided to bow out. "In the event he apologized … I will only rename Hariri," the daily As-Safir quoted Berri as saying. It said Hariri contacted Berri on Wednesday to convey his desire to head to Beiteddine to submit his resignation to the President.
As-Safir said Berri pleaded with Hariri to delay his decision a few days, "pending a settlement that would please everybody." Beirut, 10 Sep 09, 11:08

Bassil: Problem is with Hariri, Not with Suleiman

Naharnet/Caretaker Telecoms Minister Jebran Bassil said a meeting on Wednesday between President Michel Suleiman and an Opposition delegation was "positive" and there was "mutual understanding" between the two sides. "At the end, the problem is not with the President, but with Saad Hariri," Bassil said in an interview published Thursday with pan-Arab daily al-Hayat. "We hope that the concessions we offered would be met by similar concessions," Bassil said. He said he also hoped that Hariri does not intend to "further derail or delay Cabinet formation and then quits for reasons beyond our understanding." Asked what the next move would be following his meeting with Suleiman, Bassil said that there "are things that could happen to reach a settlement that is if we received positive signs in return." He said if Hariri, however, continued to hold on to the proposed Cabinet lineup "then we would not reach any solution."
Beirut, 10 Sep 09, 11:35

5 Men Charged with Involvement in Illegal Internet Case
Naharnet/Military judge Rahif Ramadan charged five detainees in connection with the illegal internet network in Barouk. State-run National News Agency said among the convicted men was the internet owner James F. The other men were identified as Walid A., Nadime J., Fadi F., and telecoms ministry employee Hagop T. A sixth suspect, identified as Mohammed H. remains at large, NNA said. Judge Ramadan convicted James, Walid and Nadime of buying Israeli-made equipment with their knowledge and illegally bringing them into Lebanon, installing the internet station in Barouk and connecting it with transmitters inside Israeli-occupied territory. They were also charged with selling internet services inside Lebanon.
Beirut, 10 Sep 09, 14:08

Kenaan Accuses Hariri of Violating Constitutional Norms in Cabinet Lineup
Naharnet/MP Ibrahim Kenaan said Wednesday that Saad Hariri's proposed Cabinet lineup "contradicts the Constitution" adding the PM-designate violated the constitutional norms and principles by allocating portfolios and ministries without any consideration to the "President's role." Although Kenaan admitted that the proposed ministers "are quite capable of performing their assignments," he clarified that "the problem" does not revolve around "portfolios and names" but is related to the "norms and regulations" applied in forming the government.
In a statement issued after its meeting in Rabiyeh, the "Change and Reform" bloc renewed its refusal of the Cabinet lineup and held on General Michel Aoun's demands. Kenaan, who read the statement, wondered how Hariri would form a "National unity Cabinet without having dialogue with a major political party," in reference to the Free Patriotic Movement.
Furthermore, he accused Hariri of ruling out a "National Unity Consensus Cabinet in defiance of the opposition." Beirut, 09 Sep 09, 20:43

Gebran Bassil’s beard
Michael Young, Now Lebanon
September 10, 2009
Telecom Minister Gebran Bassil during a meeting with the president on Tuesday. He shows signs of growing a beard.
In recent days Lebanese eyes have had a carnival of activities to look at. There has been Saad Hariri’s decision to announce a government lineup; the opposition’s ascent to Beiteddine to discuss the matter with the president; Hariri’s threats to step down if his project is completely overhauled; and much else. However, the topic prompting the most chatter in the republic’s homes is Gebran Bassil’s beard.
Well not quite a beard, rather the first spirited shoots of one. At a gathering of Aounist parliamentarians and ministers on Wednesday, Farid al-Khazen could be seen smiling at Gebran and gesturing at his chin, apparently commenting on the beard. The exchange was full of interesting possibilities, since Khazen is one of two Maronites whom Hariri has named as a minister, and if the Aounists manage to alter the prime minister-elect’s lineup in order to get Bassil into the next cabinet, it is probably Khazen who would lose his portfolio.
Why? Because the other Maronite named from the Aounist bloc is Alain Aoun, and it would not be easy for Michel Aoun to bump his nephew in favor of his son in law –particularly as both cordially dislike each other and control sizable constituencies within the Free Patriotic Movement. If that’s the case, it might be Khazen who stops shaving, even though he doubtless merits a ministry more than most of the other Aounists.
Humorists with less imagination have observed that Bassil may be growing a beard in order to feel more at ease in the presence of his Hezbollah comrades. After all, when he sits with Mohammad Raad, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, and Wafiq Safa, whose closely-cut stubble underscores hard faces, the faces of real men, Bassil comes across looking like Bambi, soft and pubescent among the television projectors.
It’s difficult to take that argument seriously. As any man will tell you, a beard is a statement. There are many kinds of beards, however, which determine what the statement is. There are the lifelong beards, those that age and die on a man’s cheeks. They are the ones that become part of an individual’s persona, accumulating the dust of time and the stains of bygone eras. A man with a “lifer” is the professional among beard wearers.
A second category of beard is those wearers will keep on most of the time, but not all. Because of this variability, the beard will rarely be grown to full length, its owner preferring to keep it trimmed down to a fuzzy stump, in a no-man’s land between being bearded and clean-shavedness.
Then there are the beards of novices among beard wearers. Such men will grow a full-length beard and become bored with it before chopping it off after a sudden onset of doubt. They may then re-grow it, shape it in innovative ways, fiddle, fuss, and then swear never to grow one again.
The lifelong beard grower is generally a man of habit and persistence; someone well organized who tends to be consistent. The owner of the no-man’s land beard is more innovative, willing to embrace variety, but still steady in his choices. The novice beard grower, in turn, tends to be flighty, impulsive, ambitious but quick to doubt his own ways.
So what kind of beard is Gebran Bassil going for? What political statement is he making? A great deal will depend on whether he is given a ministerial portfolio – which Saad Hariri has made a red line if he is to pursue his endeavors to reach a deal over the current government. If Bassil stays home, his beard is likely to be of the third kind –short-lived, an object of hatred at the bad luck it brought on. If Hariri is forced to hand him a portfolio, though, Bassil may hold on to his bush longer than we expect, as he sinks into vapors of self-satisfaction.
But there is one beard we haven’t mentioned, included in none of the previous categories: the empty, patchy beard, where you can count the hairs against broad backdrops of skin. No amount of willpower can ever make such beards thicker, better, their faults being a matter of inheritance. For the Aounists who dislike Bassil that may be the beard that is most appropriate – denoting a hollowness that inherited political power (even from a popular father in law) can little change.
But let’s give Gebran Bassil the benefit of the doubt. His beard is only a few days old, and we shouldn’t judge it until it has reached its full flowering. The republic itself may depend on the final result.

Naim Qassem

September 9, 2009
Now Lebanon
On September 8, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following speech delivered by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, during the annual Iftar of the workers and syndicates unit of the party at the Golden Plaza Hotel: “Look at the logic of some politicians, clerics and figures in this country. Their logic is based on bigotry and extremism under the headline that each of them is responsible for his sect. You are responsible for your sect to treat it fairly, not to walk along the corrupt in it and cover their devious acts against the country... Our main disease in Lebanon is that of sectarianism and the sectarians among those who hide behind their sects to control them, fill their pockets and earn positions. Sectarianism is the work tool of some hiding behind their sects while cursing them, even though they claim to defend them. They thus put their personal interests and those of their families and surrounding ahead of the interests of the country, then when they start speaking, they begin allocating shares of patriotism on all. But what have the latter achieved? Did they liberate the country? Did they offer sacrifices? Or did they join parties, deal with the enemy and engage in experiences which completely distanced them from any national interest?…
“In Lebanon, we are located in an Arab surrounding with a sacred cause that is the Palestinian cause. This cause has directly affected our situation in Lebanon and in the region. We cannot disregard the fact that we are part of this Arab region and the fact that we are affected by what is happening inside Palestine. To those trying to elude the responsibility I therefore say: Can you live in Lebanon without any regard for what is happening in Palestine or for the presence of the Israeli entity which invaded Lebanon time and time again? How can you disregard this Palestinian cause which is carrying direct repercussions on us? Some say that Lebanon offered a lot for the sake of the Palestinian cause, but allow me to tell you that Lebanon offered a lot of things to us and to our country before offering anything to the Palestinian cause. When we win, we win for ourselves and serve the Palestinian cause. When we oust Israel, we do it ourselves and not on behalf of anyone, and then serve the Palestinians. It is in our own interest to remain in the camp preventing Israel from occupying, killing and promoting its projects. We do not want Lebanon to be neutral…
“O Arabs, are you not hearing what Israel is saying? And if you are hearing, do you not understand what it is saying? How can we face this? Some are saying they will not tolerate naturalization, but those who accepted the settlement under American sponsorship have accepted naturalization and America’s dictations, since the settlement will naturally lead to Israel’s official existence, the undermining of the Palestinian cause and the naturalization of the Palestinians in the areas where they are residing, including Lebanon. Those rejecting naturalization should start resisting, because only the resistance can topple the Israeli project and prevent the expansion of its ramifications.”
On the other hand, he said regarding the governmental formation: “The country has previously gone through two experiences: that of a national provocation government and that of a national unity government. In the first experience, all the facilities were blocked and instability prevailed at the political, security, social and economic levels. As for the second experience which emerged following the Doha Accord, it was a successful one because it restored stability and rendered the discussion of the issues a matter of national interest. It thus allowed us to elect a president and hold parliamentary elections and to launch discussions over issues of interest to the people. However, this government was temporary and was not given enough time to offer all it had to give. Therefore, between the national provocation government and the national unity government, the latter was most successful. So let us return to the national unity government, now that we have conducted the parliamentary elections…”
He then reiterated Hezbollah’s call for real participation not the participation in form, saying: “We call for national concord and not for throwing the ball in the other’s court as a defiance means. We call for the minimum level of solidarity to mend the trust between the different sides and implement the remaining articles of the Taif, to see where the problems reside. Let us at least finish implementing the Taif to detect the shortcomings and deal with sectarianism at the level of the positions, so that it is replaced with competence. Only then will we be serving the country, instead of serving the sects and the cheap and narrow calculations, and only then will the country be freed of monopoly with the collaboration of all sides to secure its prosperity and its rise.”

National Block: if Hizbullah to run the public affairs, farewell Lebanon

Date: September 10th, 2009/Source: NNA
The National Block Party issued a statement on Thursday in which it said that Lebanon is doomed to failure if March 8 especially Hizbullah runs the public affairs like they did with Salah Ezzeddine funds. “If the March 8 especially Hizbullah govern the public affairs in the country while it dramatically failed in managing Ezzeddine’s funds…we shall bid the country the last farewell,” the statement stressed. It noted “Salah Ezzeddine’s bankruptcy confirms that politics and money are interconnected although those who practice politics are basically and deeply affiliated to the resistance.”The bloc accused Hizbullah of exploiting the trust of the inhabitants of the South and making them pay for its irrational deeds for the second time.
“The Southern inhabitants are paying again the high price of a financial disaster after the party cost them misfortune and tragedies in the aftermath of the summer 2006 war,” it said.
It asserted “Ezzeddine, who committed fraudulence and stole the people’s money in his Ponzi scheme, is under Hizbullah’s umbrella and was protected by the party all this period of his illegal work. The National bloc revealed that the obstacles that faced the formation of the new government are a shift in the general political atmosphere and a clear expression of the opposition’s determination to achieve its own interests above the national ones. “Instead of building a state and disarming Hizbullah of its weapons the opposition clashed over allocating the loot, the reappointment of March 8 relatives and the opposition’s insistence on obtaining the Telecommunication and Energy ministries,” it referred.
The bloc highlighted in its statement’s on the importance of the presence of a legitimate state that would protect its citizens from all fraud acts, saying “if there was no state within the state and if Hizbullah was under the law, the citizens would have been spared of people like Salah Ezzeddine who embezzled the savings of the southern inhabitants.”
Lebanese authorities said that Ezzeddine has declared bankruptcy and has been arrested, but a central bank official revealed that it is estimated that some $400 million of invested capital may be missing, hurting Hezbollah's image of austerity. Some of Ezzeddine's investors declared that they were lured by the promise of returns as high as 20 percent, 30 percent and even 60 percent annually, claiming that middlemen promised the profits were "guaranteed."

Samir Frangieh: Obstruction to keep Lebanon a bargaining card

Date: September 10th, 2009/Source: NNA
Former deputy Samir Frangieh said Thursday that the opposition rejection of the cabinet lineup submitted by Premier designate Saad Hariri aims at keeping Lebanon a bargaining card in the hands of regional and international countries, the government-run National News Agency reported. “The intension to obstruct the formation of the cabinet to keep it as a bargaining card is ascertained in the offer submitted by Iran to the international community regarding its nuclear file. The offer includes Iran’s willingness to contribute in solving the problems of Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan,” the prominent figure in the March 14 coalition said. “Some opposition factions, particularly, Hizbullah decided to keep Lebanon exposed,” he maintained.

Chamoun slams opposition’s obstruction schemes
Date: September 10th, 2009/Source: As-Sharq
National Liberal Party leader MP Dory Chamoun told As-Sharq daily Thursday that March 8 opposition camp does not want the government to be formed but instead attempts to drag Lebanon into chaos. In his interview, Chamoun expressed optimism that the government would be formed despite the opposition’s repeated attempts to obstruct it “such as what it did when it sparked a civil war-like street fights in May 2008.  “If there was a democratic system in the country, it (opposition) wouldn’t have won a seat,” the Chouf parliamentarian elected in the June 7 poll stressed. On May 7, 2008, street fights erupted in Beirut by Hizbullah gunmen trying to enforce a general strike called for by the labor union. It constituted Lebanon’s worst internal security conflict since the 1975-1990 civil war.

Where is Michel Aoun?

Date: September 10th, 2009
Source: As Sharq
The Beirut daily Ash-sharq said Thursday it has known that Renegade General Michel Aoun was on a trip outside the country with fellow Free Patriotic Movement Nabil Nicolas and their spouses despite their close associates repeated denials. But a reliable source at the FPM told the Al-Sharq newspaper that Aoun and MP Nabil Nicolas accompanied by their spouses left to the Czech republic upon an invitation from the Lebanese businessman Akram Al-Halabi, a member of the Assyrian Catholic Supreme Council, namely to the reputable Carlo Vivari resort, specialized in weight loss and relaxation techniques. Halabi is a famous businessman and owner of the Phoenicia pharmaceutical company that imports most expensive medicines for treating cancer, as well as copied ones from illegal companies in Argentina. The invitation comes in the context of returning the favor to Aoun who mediated with a current minister, whose brother had imported cheaper drugs for treating cancer from Brazil, and convinced him to ship these drugs to Iran to be sold there instead of Lebanon, therefore paving the way for Halabi to sell his medicines in Lebanon. Another source told the paper that Aoun held a secret visit to Aleppo boarding a private jet and met there with the Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The source added that Aoun asked Assad to support him in his attempts to reassign his son-in-law Telecommunication Minister Gebran Bassil to the same ministry in the upcoming cabinet.
Assad requested Amal and Hizbullah movements to support Aoun, the source maintained. Another version says Aoun and his wife left to Switzerland to check on their secret accounts there.
In anyways, the question remains: Where is Michel Aoun and what sort of visits he is on? “The logical and convincing possibilities that we cited are based on very credible sources,” the paper confirmed.

Bassil is the cause of the problem

Date: September 10th, 2009
-Future News
The political scene witnessed several signs yesterday, which indicate that the course of the government formation will remain in status quo during the few coming days. The government proposition delivered by Premier-Designate Saad Hariri to President Michel Sleiman achieves a balance, but the swift opposition’s reaction gradually mounted, where messages from everywhere called the minority to re-consider this proposition, as Speaker Nabih Berri handles this issue to “bring points of views closer” as MPs quoted him during the Wednesday meeting. The effort exercised by Berri, with the cooperation and motivation from the Democratic Gathering Leader MP Walid Jumblatt who called for “acting slowly to reach a suitable solution for all,” forced the opposition representatives who met Sleiman yesterday, to refrain from any declaration.
The representatives informed Sleiman that the problem is in Hariri abstaining from appointing Minister of Telecommunication Gebral Bassil, and the remaining is just details that do not require much discussions. This brings the question about the reason behind MP Michel Aoun’s insistence to re-appoint his son in law, and his seriousness when he said: “for the sake of my son in law, I do not care if the government is formed or not.” Is Gebran Bassil the only appropriate person for the ministry? What about Alain Aoun, Ghassan Moukheiber and others?
From Beiteddine, the opposition representatives heard the President’s insistence over consultation and keeping doors open to satisfactory solutions. Contrary to what was expected, they did not offer the President a written text concerning the names and portfolios they demand, they only stated that the knot revolves around appointing Minister Bassil.
MPs at the Nejmeh Square quoted Berri’s insistence over the need to “continue dialogue and reduce tension and escalation, because this leaves a negative impact on the country and the issue of forming the government,” and that he is making “intensive efforts to address the situation and reach positive results through dialogue.”
In a similar context, March 14 General Secretariat held its weekly meeting and decided to keep meetings open, and hold assemblies with national concerned references, in an attempt to reach solutions and exit the crisis created by March 8. This was asserted by Fares Souaid who visited Premier-Designate Hariri with a delegation from the secretariat, pointing that there is “regional obstruction, which March 8 group seeks to turn into a Lebanese internal obstruction.”

As always: It's the Syrians, stupid!
By Michael Young

Daily Star staff
Thursday, September 10, 2009
So it’s as clear as a bomb explosion on St. Valentine’s Day: Lebanon’s government crisis is and always was about Syria and its yearning to regain the power over Lebanon that it lost in 2005. Prime Minister-elect Saad Hariri’s decision to present a cabinet lineup to President Michel Sleiman, by provoking an angry reaction from Syria’s allies, tore away the ambiguities surrounding the government formation process. The Syrians don’t want a government unless they can be seen as having blessed it themselves – which means Hariri must make a notable act of submission to Damascus. The Americans are telling Syria that its failure to facilitate a government will harm US-Syrian relations. And the Saudis have remained publicly quiet, but only because while they disagree with Syria over Lebanon, they appear to have an implicit understanding with President Bashar Assad in Iraq, where both countries, each for reasons of its own, seek to prevent stabilization of the countrThe latter detail may explain why Hariri himself did not press the cabinet issue very hard until this week. Perhaps he was hoping for a Saudi-Syrian breakthrough that would spare him headaches; or maybe he simply sought to avoid a Saudi-Syrian row, knowing Riyadh didn’t want one. Whatever the reason, to understand what is happening today we should watch closely what develops on the Saudi-Syrian front, and then see whether all the others involved in Lebanon accept it.
It was no coincidence that Walid Jumblatt sent Ghazi Aridi to Saudi Arabia on Monday to discuss Lebanon with Saudi officials. Nor was it surprising that the Parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, met with the kingdom’s ambassador in Beirut on Tuesday. Jumblatt has insisted, echoing Berri, that a solution to the deadlock requires concord between Syria and Saudi Arabia. The Druze leader was forced to backtrack on his “withdrawal” from March 14 last month, but hopes to reposition himself as a middleman, along with Berri, to facilitate a government. This means the two must channel and reconcile the Saudi and Syrian mood.
The situation in Iraq has complicated matters in Beirut. The Maliki government’s decision to confront Syria over its support for Al-Qaeda and for former Baath members violently undermining Iraqi normalization has made Syria more obstinate in Lebanon. Nor has this been alleviated by the fact that the United States, which initially (and mildly) advised a diplomatic resolution of the crisis between Baghdad and Damascus, is now gravitating toward greater criticism of the Syrian regime. The irony is that Iraq’s animosity toward Syria means the Saudis may be less eager to clash with Assad in Lebanon. The flip side of this is that it may facilitate a Syrian-Saudi arrangement over a new Lebanese government.
That’s what Jumblatt and Berri are wagering on. Jumblatt was much criticized for his turnaround against March 14. His reading of the situation at the time was that the Saudis, keen to firm up their reconciliation with Syria to better .contain Iran, were willing to hand Assad much leeway in Lebanon; not what Syria held before 2005, but more than it had after its withdrawal. Jumblatt assumed that part of the arrangement would be Hariri’s ascent to Damascus, so the Druze leader calculated that to remain politically relevant, he had to make it there first, or at least show a deep change of heart toward Syria first.
Then something happened. Apparently the United States, with Egypt, blocked Hariri’s visit to Damascus before he became prime minister. The Saudis stepped back. A scheduled meeting between Assad and King Abdullah was cancelled, and when Jumblatt made his Beau Rivage speech the Saudis sent their information minister, Abdel-Aziz Khoja, to Beirut to bring the Druze leader back into line – mainly to avoid undercutting Hariri. However, judging from Jumblatt’s subsequent behavior, the Saudis never opposed his rapprochement with Syria, which Jumblatt has justified in the framework of improved Syrian-Saudi ties.
However, the new situation led to deadlock, exacerbated by inter-Lebanese discord. Aoun, sensing Syria’s displeasure, decided to take advantage of this by pushing for Gebran Bassil as a minister and demanding a “sovereign ministry.” Hizbullah, which had promised Hariri that it would mediate with Aoun once cabinet shares were apportioned, instead did nothing at all, respecting Syria’s desire to obstruct an accord. Nonetheless, the party probably prefers that a government be finalized soon, both to gain legal cover for its weapons and to create a situation more propitious for addressing financially the Salah Ezzedine fiasco, which depends on a functioning state being present. The question today, therefore, is what will the Saudis give Syria so it can sign off on a new government, and will the Americans, Iranians and Egyptians accept?
The Iranian role is more subtle. Iran and Hizbullah, not Syria, hold real power on the ground. Where Syrian interests have been protected in Lebanon, they have been protected by Hizbullah, so that Iran has gradually sidelined Syria as the main opposition sponsor. In the June elections the extent of Syrian weakness was obvious, though the Assad regime tried to use the Hizbullah-led opposition’s setbacks to regain the influence it lost to Iran after 2005. This it did by packaging its prospective Lebanese return as a case of curtailing Iranian influence. Little has come of this scheme because Syria is weak and Iran won’t surrender to Assad its Lebanese card.
All sides have an advantage in reaching a settlement at some stage over a new government. The Syrians don’t want an outright divorce with the Saudis and still hope to advance their dialogue with Washington; the Iranians need a new government in place to legitimize Hizbullah’s weapons at a crucial time in the nuclear standoff; and Saudi Arabia and Washington want to avert a conflict in Lebanon that might hinder their other regional priorities – most importantly inhibiting Iran and advancing regional peace talks. That means a government may come sooner than we think, but you would be right in keeping your wager low.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.