LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 03/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Luke17/22 -36: He said to the disciples, “The days will come, when you will desire to see one of the days of the Son of Man, and you will not see it. They will tell you, ‘Look, here!’ or ‘Look, there!’ Don’t go away, nor follow after them, for as the lightning, when it flashes out of the one part under the sky, shines to the other part under the sky; so will the Son of Man be in his day.  But first, he must suffer many things and be rejected by this generation. As it happened in the days of Noah, even so will it be also in the days of the Son of Man.  They ate, they drank, they married, they were given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ship, and the flood came, and destroyed them all.  Likewise, even as it happened in the days of Lot: they ate, they drank, they bought, they sold, they planted, they built;  but in the day that Lot went out from Sodom, it rained fire and sulfur from the sky, and destroyed them all. It will be the same way in the day that the Son of Man is revealed. In that day, he who will be on the housetop, and his goods in the house, let him not go down to take them away. Let him who is in the field likewise not turn back. Remember Lot’s wife! Whoever seeks to save his life loses it, but whoever loses his life preserves it. I tell you, in that night there will be two people in one bed. The one will be taken, and the other will be left. There will be two grinding grain together. One will be taken, and the other will be left.” 

Christians Are persecuted In Iran
Release: International Christian Concern: Iran Arrests Two Christian Women for Practicing Christianity/ 02/04/09

Hezbollah, Notorious World-wide Drugs Trafficker, Why Britain is engaging its terrotist leadership
Interpol: Cocaine Trafficking Used to Finance Hizbullah-Naharnet 02/04/09
Is Britain's Dialogue with Hezbollah Misleading?By:Walid Phares 03/04/09

Interviews
Naharnet/Sison, USA ambassador in Lebanon In an Interview Outlines U.S. Policies and Alliances, Future Relations with Hizbollah. 02.04.09

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The true Iran. Future News 02/04/09
Obama's course is one that Europe should affirm-By David Ignatius 03/04/09
Arabs’ summit of shame. Rached Fayed 02/04/09
Obama's Blind Spot on Terror.By Michael Ledeen/Pyjama Media 02/04/09
Taliban Terrorist Targets Washington.By Annie Jacobsen/Pyjama Media 02/04/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 02/09
Israel Says Will Continue Over Flights in Lebanon-Naharnet
Poland Pulls Out of UNIFIL-Naharnet
Majority Candidate Names Await Final Consultations-Naharnet
Interpol: Cocaine Trafficking Used to Finance Hizbullah-Naharnet
Assad: We Do Not Yield to International Tribunal and Are Ready for Border Demarcation-Naharnet
Lebanese Police Free Kidnapped Boy, Arrest Abductors in Aley-Naharnet
Lebanon:Majority Candidate Names Await Final Consultations-Naharnet
Nasrallah Names 11 Shiite Parliamentary Election Candidates-Naharnet
Aoun Releases Names of Beirut 1 Candidates
-Naharnet
March 14: Aoun Violated All the Red Lines by Targeting the Sanctity of Martyrdom
-Naharnet
Israel FM rules out any withdrawal from Golan-AFP
Maronite Bishops slam lack of election clarity-Daily Star
Nasrallah Names 11 Shiite Parliamentary Election Candidates-Daily Star
Lebanese parties unveil poll candidates-Daily Star
Tribunal seeks full handover of Hariri case-Daily Star
Berri: No agreement yet on state budget-Daily Star
Officials refused access to Britons held in Syria.Telegraph.co.uk
Scores of demonstrators break into Bank of England on eve of summit-(AFP)
Lebanon construction bucks global trends-Daily Star
Better packaging can boost Lebanese exports - Abboud-Daily Star
Moody's upgrades Lebanon's sovereign ratings-Daily Star

 
International Christian Concern: Iran Arrests Two Christian Women for Practicing Christianity

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 2, 2009) - International Christian Concern (ICC) has learned that on March 5, 2009 Iranian security forces detained two Christian women for practicing Christianity. Iranian officials allege that Marzieh Amairizadeh Esmaeilabad and Maryam Rustampoor are 'anti-government activists.'
According to the Farsi Christian News Network (FCNN), Iranian security officials searched the apartment shared by the two women and confiscated their personal belongings before they hand-cuffed and took the Christians to Police and Security Station 137 in Gaysha, west of Tehran. After appearing before the Revolutionary Court on March 18, the women were sent to the notorious Evin prison. Iranian officials told the Christian women to post bail at a staggering amount of $400,000 in order to be released from the prison.
"Both women are allowed just a one minute telephone call every day to their immediate families. Both are unwell and in need of urgent medical attention. During their last call on March 28 Marzieh said that she was suffering from an infection and high fever. She said 'I am dying'," reported FCNN.
Iranian officials have dramatically increased their persecution of Christians following the conversion of a large number of Muslims to Christianity. Last year alone, 50 Christians were arrested for practicing their faith, some of whom were tortured. There have also been reports that Christians died due to the torture they were forced to endure.
ICC's Regional Manager for Africa, Jonathan Racho, stated that, "Iran's persecution of Christian minorities violates the fundamental freedom of its citizens to worship freely. The international community has obligations to speak up for the rights of the persecuted Iranian Christians. We call upon Iranian officials to stop mistreating Marzieh and Maryam and release them from prison."
Please pray for God to give strength and comfort to the detained Christian sisters. Also pray for their safe release.
ICC is a Washington-DC based human rights organization that exists to help persecuted Christians worldwide. ICC provides Awareness, Advocacy, and Assistance to the worldwide persecuted Church. For additional information or for an interview, contact ICC at 800-422-5441.
You are free to disseminate this news story. We request that you reference ICC (International Christian Concern) and include our web address, www.persecution.org.

Interpol: Cocaine Trafficking Used to Finance Hizbullah
Naharnet/The head of Interpol said Wednesday that cocaine trafficking is used to finance both the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and Hizbullah.
"Recently, authorities have dismantled cocaine-trafficking rings that used their proceeds to finance the activities of the FARC and Hizbullah," Ronald Noble, told the opening of the Americas Interpol conference in Chile. He urged governments to do more checking on lost and stolen passports, warning they could be used to smuggle terrorists into countries in the Americas. Noble said too few passports are reported as lost or stolen -- and too few are checked against international databases of missing documents when travelers cross borders. He said that Central American countries "have become the main transit point for Iraqis being smuggled into the United States," with Interpol tracking 74 cases of Iraqis traveling with fraudulent passports from various European countries. Only 24 of those documents had been reported to Interpol as lost or stolen. Noble said that only one of every three of travelers entering American nations in 2008 had their passports checked against Interpol's database of stolen or lost travel documents.(Naharnet-AP) Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 09:02

Nasrallah Names 11 Shiite Parliamentary Election Candidates
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday named the party's 11 Shiite candidates who will be running in the upcoming parliamentary elections without revealing the names of other nominees, particularly Christians and Sunnis, running under his bloc.
"Hizbullah does not choose its candidates based on family or tribal history," Nasrallah stressed, adding that "Hizbullah chooses candidates who enjoy the party's confidence." He said Hussein Mussawi was Hizbullah's candidate in Hermel. "We have also decided to re-nominate Hussein al-Hajj and Nawwar al-Sahili and Ali al-Miqdad," Nasrallah said. He said MP Mohammed Raad is running in Nabatiyeh, while Labor Minister Mohammed Fneish and Nawwaf Mussawi in Tyre.
Nasrallah said Hizbullah also has re-nominated Ali al-Ammar in Baabda, Hasan Fadlallah in Bint Jbeil, Ali Fayyad in Marjayoun and Amin Sherri in Beirut's Second Constituency. "The upcoming election is very important even though the opposition had said that it is fateful," Nasrallah went on to say.
He said Hizbullah has completed its electoral platform, but that the announcement would not be made before a few days "due to the significance of the issue and the time needed to discuss it." "Hizbullah aims to win the elections," Nasrallah vowed, adding that an opposition victory is a "national goal."
"The opposition's gain in parliament keeps the door strongly open for a national coalition government. If government loyalists win the majority, this means the door will be closed for a partnership with government," Nasrallah believed. He said Hizbullah is seeking to get "the larger number of seats," adding, however, that it is not in his party's desire to increase the number of MPs in the Loyalist to the Resistance Bloc. Beirut, 01 Apr 09, 23:09

Police Free Kidnapped Boy, Arrest Abductors in Aley
Naharnet/A 14-year-old student who was kidnapped for a $1.5 million ransom returned to his parents on Thursday after security forces arrested his kidnappers and freed the boy. Police managed to free Ayman Jihad al-Khansa at dawn and arrested the four kidnappers at an apartment in Dhour Aley, Interior Minister Ziad Baroud said during a press conference. He also hoped that kidnapped Middle East Airlines engineer Joseph Sader would return to his family.
Voice of Lebanon radio station identified the head of the network as Abdul Nasser Hassan Miqdad. In an interview with VDL, Baroud lauded the efforts of security forces to win the boy's release despite their limited capabilities. A security official said investigators on Wednesday arrested three of the kidnappers who led them at dawn on Thursday to the boy and the fourth suspect. The boy's father Jihad Khansa, a businessman who deals in cars and automotive spare parts, told Agence France Presse that he did not know why his son was targeted.Al-Khansa was kidnapped on Monday while waiting for a school bus outside his house in Beirut's Ghobeiri – airport highway district. The boy's father, who was not aware that his son was kidnapped, received a call from a payphone in the eastern city of Baalbek, demanding a $1.5 million ransom. On Tuesday, the kidnappers called the father again probably from the area of Jdeideh and reiterated their demands. Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 08:03

In an Interview with Naharnet, Sison Outlines U.S. Policies and Alliances, Future Relations with Hizbullah

Naharnet/U.S. Ambassador Michele Sison responded to questions by Naharnet on issues related to Washington's visions, upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections and how the U.S would deal with the next government. The interview also tackled U.S. alliances in Lebanon, the future of U.S. ties with Hizbullah and other topics. The following are highlights of the interview which will be published later Thursday:
- Defense Minister Elias Murr is to visit Washington soon.
- The regional focus in U.S. policy is going to involve Lebanon.
- Lebanon, being an important part of the region, will be playing a key role in any long-term solution for Middle East peace.
- There will be no deals at Lebanon's expense. There will be no deal-making with regards to the Special Tribunal.
- It should be the state that is the sole bearer of weapons.
- The equipment assistance that has been provided (for the army and police) so far has been robust, has been very strong.
- I won't happen to guess from the 128 seats what the margin will be or won't be.
- The shape of the U.S. assistance program will be evaluated in the context of the new government policies and statements.
- Should Hizbullah renounce terrorism, should Hizbullah renounce terrorism both in Lebanon and abroad? It's a bit to the rule of law and the authority of the state institutions – the Army -- as the sole bearer of weapon. That would give room for reconsideration of the status.
- We are working closely with a group of international donors to support the government of Lebanon's national border strategy and operational plan for border control.
- We are seen as allies not just by March 14th but by a number of independent voices as well. - The presence of domestic and international election observers should help promote confidence in the electoral process and in the outcome. - President Obama has set out a new approach and we now await the choices of those we are seeking to engage with. Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 10:54

The true Iran
Date: April 2nd, 2009 Source: Future News
It is not considered a surprise, not even an emergency if a direct dialogue channel opens up between Iran and the United States, at least for Iran. The reaction of Sayed Ali Khamenei with regard to the message of unpublished and historic wishes of Obama on the occasion of the feast of Norouz, the Persian New Year, shows clearly the regional objectives of the Persian republic.
Iran wants that the United States approve its domination in the region, allow it to replay the cop role on the territories of the Arabian Gulf and an agent to their politics, assign it on foot of equality with Israel or even in part. In this context, it is justified when Hilary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, qualifies of "cordial" the face-to-face meeting between two American and Iranian high rank diplomats on the side of the conference on Afghanistan in The Hague.
The speed of the Iranian answer to the letter of Obama unmasks the Iranian reality. Although Khamenei adhered to suspend the support to terrorism, he assorted his adherence of contradictory conditions, to the profit of the Persian republic. Sadly, Palestine, the American arrogance and the famous slogan "to wipe out Israel" were absent.
Suddenly, Jerusalem was not anymore a crucial question, important to the "Muslims". The reality affirms itself: The cause and the Palestinian suffering acted as a bridge toward the table of the negotiations with the Americans.
No shock, isn’t a typical reaction of the Iranian politics? Aren’t they accustomed to trade the bloods of the Lebanese, the Iraqis and the Bahrainis? Iran convenes for all and makes its opposite. It evokes the resistance and the liberation whereas it refuses the international court to decide about its occupation of the Emiratis islands. It doesn't stop asking for the rights of the peoples that it exploits. However, the minority in Baluchestan doesn't escape its oppression.
The lure of the Iranian face won't linger to appear to the surface. Shortly, the Iranian ambitions will uncover themselves. While waiting for the sun, rain seems to announce a big storm!

Arabs’ summit of shame
Date: March 31st, 2009 Source: Annahar Author: Rached Fayed
The Arabs are divided over facing the facts of the summit in Doha. Some consider the dialogues, kisses, and knives, above the table and below, as nothing new, simply the continuation of a pattern that does not change as the names of the Arab leaders change.
The others were surprised that the bitter experiences the “grand” Arab nation has suffered did nothing to help mend the rifts in that nation and cure the traumatized Arab body.
This summit provided no reason for optimism. The same old words were repeated over and over by the same people. The political pretentiousness is still the same, and the attempts to practice the “I know best” theory of the infertile political thought is still present, especially as the leader of the Arab abstinence started his lecture.
Those who watched the summit on television did not miss the vulgar language they are used to hearing on such delightful national occasions, especially when Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi returned to play solo, in what seemed to the listener a blatant dissonance. The listener then realizes that all actions are related and that Gaddafi’s dissonance is even part of the scenario. Are we not used to him “playing solo” at every summit he attends?
It is amazing that those Arabs in Doha still did not open a new page in terms of their relations, their vision of the role of their nation, and their perception of the Palestinian Cause and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
On the contrary, they just reread the book from its very first page - no, from its cover. Is it possible that more than 60 years have passed since the first Arab summit in Inchass, Egypt, in 1946, and that after 31 summits - 20 regular and 11 emergency - the headline of the discussions is “Arab reconciliation”? Wasn’t this item always present alongside another urgent item, the Palestinian Cause?
Doha was the Summit of Arab Shame, which is exposed by its own reconciliation statement which stresses the following:
1. Commitment to the Arab league’s Charter
2. Serious and loyal efforts to implement the vows of the oath, harmony, and solidarity paper
3. Using the methods of candor, transparency, and dialogue.
4. Crystallizing a unified strategic vision to deal with the political challenges
5. Asserting that the Palestinian Cause is a central issue
6. Imp[lamenting the resolutions of previous summits
This statement indicates that the Arab cave people just woke up in Doha and were so astounded by their status they formulated a plan to confront this new world and find out its secrets and conspiracies.
Reading between the lines, the statement says, in fact, that Arab leaders have never committed to the charter of the Arab League, that they have never made a serious and loyal effort to implement the “oath, harmony, and solidarity” of the Charter document, that they have never been candid since they have always ignited sedition, that they do not share a unified strategic vision, and that they have never perceived the Palestinian Cause as a central issue, and that they do not have a mechanism to settle the conflicts between them.
Perhaps the kindest name for this summit as regards its political content would be the “déjà vu” summit. We’ve seen it all before.
As for its form, it was the summit of leaders and not of peoples, as all the participants raced to defend their “struggling” comrade Omar Hassan El-Beshir against the International Criminal Court and the international community.
The Arab leaders demand from the international community justice against the Israeli occupation and its massacres of the Palestinian people, but they deny the people of Darfur their right to that same justice, as if they are demanding two scales for the same oppression. Moreover, these leaders never sent a telegram to El-Beshir during the massacres in Darfur urging him to spare the blood of the people of Darfur, if not for the sake of humanity, nationalism, then for the sake of religion.
It may be a summit, but it shows that the Arabs have reached their dead end in the 21st century.
This summit made us realize that all that has been said at such conferences, from Inchass until today, is meaningless and useless - except to express solidarity with the president indicted by the ICC and thus give one of his counterparts the chance to defend himself at the international tribunal in The Hague, knowing that he believes, more than anyone else, that he will figure in the verdict. H.C.

Majority Candidate Names Await Final Consultations
Naharnet/Consultations among March 14 figures will soon bring to light the electoral lists as the April 7 deadline for announcing candidacies approaches.
An Nahar newspaper quoted well-informed March 14 forces as saying the official agreement on the coalition's candidates will be finalized on Sunday.
They said that the electoral lists won't be announced during a rally organized by al-Mustaqbal movement in BIEL on Sunday, adding that the movement will only announce its political and economic program. An Nahar said that agreement on the Shouf list among majority forces has been almost reached. Such a deal helped move consultations between Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri, MP Walid Jumblat and March 14 Christian figures forward on other districts including Aley, Baabda, Western Bekaa and Zahle.As Safir newspaper quoted informed sources in the March 14 forces as saying that Hariri, Jumblat, Phalange party chief Amin Gemayel and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea will soon meet to find a solution to pending issues. Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 10:15

Assad: We Do Not Yield to International Tribunal and Are Ready for Border Demarcation

Syrian President Bashar Assad reiterated that his country does not yield to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and stressed readiness to demarcate the border with Lebanon. "We have previously announced that any relationship between the court and the state of Syria should comply with an agreement with Syria," Assad told the Qatari al-Sharq newspaper. The tribunal will try ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's suspected assassins. Many have accused Syria of involvement in the Feb. 2005 murder but Damascus has denied the charges. Turning to the Shebaa Farms area, Assad said: "We agree on ownership of territories and demarcate the border and then tell the U.N. what we have agreed on." "We told the Lebanese and the U.N. that Israel should withdraw first," he said in the interview published Thursday. "Why aren't they (the Lebanese) worried about their northern border and are only worried about the Shebaa Farms?" "We are ready to start demarcation and we will start with all territories and the other borders that require demarcation," Assad stressed. The Syrian president said Damascus and Hizbullah have the same cause in terms of Israel.
"The party has a cause with the Israeli enemy. And we have the same cause. That's why we support it. At the same time it is a national party that has a religious agenda as part of its nation Lebanon … It is normal that we have a good relationship with it," Assad told his interviewer. Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 09:26

Officials refused access to Britons held in Syria
Interpol: Cocaine Trafficking Used to Finance Hizbullah
Naharnet/The head of Interpol said Wednesday that cocaine trafficking is used to finance both the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and Hizbullah.
"Recently, authorities have dismantled cocaine-trafficking rings that used their proceeds to finance the activities of the FARC and Hizbullah," Ronald Noble, told the opening of the Americas Interpol conference in Chile. He urged governments to do more checking on lost and stolen passports, warning they could be used to smuggle terrorists into countries in the Americas. Noble said too few passports are reported as lost or stolen -- and too few are checked against international databases of missing documents when travelers cross borders. He said that Central American countries "have become the main transit point for Iraqis being smuggled into the United States," with Interpol tracking 74 cases of Iraqis traveling with fraudulent passports from various European countries. Only 24 of those documents had been reported to Interpol as lost or stolen. Noble said that only one of every three of travelers entering American nations in 2008 had their passports checked against Interpol's database of stolen or lost travel documents.(Naharnet-AP) Beirut, 02 Apr 09, 09:02 British officials have been refused access to two Britons who were apparently abducted by Syrian officials in mysterious circumstances in recent weeks.
By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
01 Apr 2009
Family members said Maryam Kallis, 35 has not been seen since she was arrested on March 15. The mother of four has lived with the rest of her family, all British passport holders, in the Syrian capital since 2002. Mrs Kallis was studying Arabic at the Abu Noor Institute of Arabic, a prominent Islamic foundation in Damascus.
She was the second British citizen to be held by the Syrian security apparatus in March.
Wife of British 'spy' in China jail goes into hiding"I raised my concerns about the two British people detained here with Walid Muallem, the Syrian Foreign Minister," Bill Rammell, a Foreign Office minister said. "In particular I stressed that we needed to have immediate consular access."
But Masood, the husband of Mrs Kallis, criticised the British diplomats' handling of the case. "These are British citizens in a vulnerable state in a vulnerable area and nobody has bothered to go round and say 'listen, we're here for you, be patient' - comforting words," he said.
Amnesty International gave its backing to the family's plea. UK campaigns director Tim Hancock said: "The Syrian security services have a long and very troubling record of detaining people in secret for weeks, months or even years on end and subjecting them to torture."
A spokesman for the Syrian embassy in London said it was looking into the reports. "We were approached by the Foreign Office concerning the alleged detention," he said. "We have supplied the information to the relevant authorities and are still waiting for feedback."

Is Britain's Dialogue with Hezbollah Misleading?
Walid Phares
April 1, 2009
http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3327.cfm
The British government's recent announcement that it will open a dialogue with "the political wing of Hezbollah" is most troubling. In a statement before a parliamentary committee, Bill Rammell, the British foreign office's minister for Middle East affairs, rationalized the decision on the grounds of what his office perceives to be "more positive developments within Lebanon."
This British declaration underscores a pervasive failure to properly understand the structure of the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. At worst, the call to distinguish between the group's political and military wings (in terms of decision-making) may be driven by a desire to construct imaginary facts for diplomatic and political purposes. Are officials selling a false image of what Hezbollah is so that they join in the "sitting, talking and listening" with Iran and Syria's regimes now underway?
Very possible. But it would have been much better to inform the public that the government intends to talk to a terrorist organization for purpose of national interest, rather than claiming the talks are only with the political wing. Eight years after 9/11 and the subsequent attacks worldwide, citizens are much better informed about jihadist organizations than they were in the 1990's. Officials in the United Kingdom and the United States must realize that claiming there are two Hezbollahs will not fly with most of the public.
Hezbollah was founded by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) in 1981. Its military organization, responsible for terror operations, is part of the Consultative Council (al majliss al Istisharee), which is Hezbollah's supreme command, along with the organization's legislators, Fatwa clerics, financial executives and political operatives. This Hezbollah "politburo" oversees the military, security, doctrinal and political actions of the entire apparatus — there is no structural delineation.
Furthermore, the Jihad Council — Hezbollah's War Department — which issues the orders for acts of terror, is headed by the secretary general of the organization, Hassan Nasrallah. The council includes many of the organization's "political leaders" — Hashem Safi al Din, Hussein al Khalil, Abbas Ruhani, Ibrahim Aqil, Fuad Shukr, Nabil Kauq and others.
Hezbollah is not the I.R.A., which had a clearer delineation between its militia and its military wing, the Sin Fein. Moreover, Lebanon is not Northern Ireland. Yes, British citizens can be easily led to make the comparison by government officials who use the clichés by which most Britons remember the I.R.A., but the attempt to fool the public will be short-lived. The lack of separation between Hezbollah's political and military operations is well documented in public sources. Any suggestion to the contrary is simply ridiculous.
If the British government wishes to make that distinction, they will find themselves incapable of answering the most basic questions. Nasrallah, as the secretary general and purported partner in any dialogue, is at the same time the chief political executive of the organization and Hezbollah's supreme military commander. How then will meeting Nasrallah be political, when he is the commander in chief of the militia and its security apparatuses? Will diplomats meet with him between 9:00 and 11:00 AM when he is a secretary general and avoid him at other hours when he wears his military hat? It simply doesn't make sense.
If the British government wishes to engage in talks with a terrorist organization, it must make that case and not obfuscate its true intentions of working with Hezbollah's political wing. At the end of the day, Hezbollah will remain who it is, who it says it is and who it will continue to be: a terrorist organization devoted to Jihad against the West. It is more honest to try to convince the public that the time to talk with Hezbollah, Iran and Syria, and even perhaps Hamas, has come. It will be more productive to acknowledge that some liberal democracies aren't able to carry the load of a confrontation with the jihadists than to attempt to rewrite history and reality.
Even if the British government chooses to engage with Hezbollah — which is certainly a questionable strategy — they should not do so on the false pretense that there are "two Hezbollahs" just as there were two I.R.A.s. There are not, and the British people are well aware of that fact. Moreover, any negotiations which are premised on such a mischaracterization by the interlocutor cannot possibly succeed for the British. Hezbollah, on the other hand, can and likely will.
**Dr. Walid Phares, author of "The Confrontation: Winning the War on Future Jihad" is the director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Afghanistan, and Beyond
Obama's Blind Spot on Terror.
By
Michael Ledeen/
Pyjama Media 02/04/09

The refusal to see the terror war plain, which blinded the Bush Administration for seven years, continues to bamboozle our strategists. It looms over the “new” strategy for defeating al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Afpak). Listening to the president’s vision for the war–three dead letters his secretary of state proudly and mistakenly consigned to the garbage pail of history a few days ago–reminds me of the story of Mark Twain’s wife and his penchant for blaspheming. One evening she tried to shock him by unleashing a torrent of four-letter words. He chuckled, and said, “you’ve got the lyrics, dear, but the music’s all wrong.”
So it is with Obama. The words are there, from “we will defeat you” to the counterinsurgency terms of art. He reminds us that Iraqi terrorists abandoned al Qaeda and insists that we have to give Afghan terrorists the same chance. He reminds us that Iraqi forces have now taken over most of the fighting in their country, and says that we must do the same in Afghanistan. He calls for engineers, doctors, teachers and construction experts to help create social and political institutions capable of winning the allegiance of most Afghans. He says that Pakistan and Afghanistan are parts of a broader problem, and he is right.
But the music is all wrong. Read the speech, and you’ll see that it doesn’t really parse. All the pieces are there but they don’t fit together. Everything is jumbled. There is no sense of sequence, no recognition that the part he likes–from weaning the terrorists from al Qaeda and/or the Taliban, to building roads and schools and hospitals–can only work once the part he doesn’t like–killing enough bad guys and providing credible security–has succeeded. He doesn’t seem to understand the essential part of the war, which is that the people on the ground will only commit to one side or another if they conclude that one side is going to win. Otherwise they will avoid commitment, and seek to curry favor from everyone.
The Anbar Awakening only got going when the locals reached two conclusions: the Marines could not be beaten, and the Marines were not going to leave. That took a while; the people had to see it and they had to have sufficient security to justify the enormous risk they took when they joined the battle against the terrorists. The president seems to think we can and should do everything at once:
In Iraq, we had success in reaching out to former adversaries to isolate and target al Qaeda in Iraq. We must pursue a similar process in Afghanistan, while understanding that it is a very different country.
There is an uncompromising core of the Taliban. They must be met with force, and they must be defeated. But there are also those who’ve taken up arms because of coercion, or simply for a price. These Afghans must have the option to choose a different course. And that’s why we will work with local leaders, the Afghan government, and international partners to have a reconciliation process in every province.
I’d be delighted to sign on to this if he just added a clause at the end: “as our enemies are defeated there.” First you defeat them (creating a decent army and police forces in the process), then you reconcile, and then you build the roads, schools and hospitals. If you send in the school teachers before you’ve established adequate security, you’ll just provide the terrorists with fodder and hostages.
All too often, the president shows that he thinks negotiations are simply the result of good intentions, and that peace can be accomplished by the right sort of people. But peace invariably is the result of war, and peace conferences don’t change the world by themselves; they provide a snapshot of a world that has already been changed by war. A few days before his Afpak speech, the president celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Israel/Egypt peace agreement. “As we commemorate this historic event, we recall that peace is always possible even in the face of seemingly intractable conflicts,” he said. And then, referring to his own intentions, he continued:
The success…demonstrated that progress results from sustained efforts at communication and cooperation…we honor the courage and foresight of these leaders…as we seek to expand the circle of peace among Arabs and Israelis, we take inspiration from what Israel and Egypt achieved three decades ago, knowing that the destination is worthy of the struggle.
But that’s not how it happened. Not at all.
First, Egypt was decisively defeated by Israel on the battlefield, convincing Anwar Sadat that there was no possibility of wiping out Israel, and that any attempt to do it would be disastrous for his country. Second, both the United States and the Soviet Union started designing a “peace” deal, and Sadat didn’t like the prospect of a renewed Soviet role in the region. He was even prepared to talk directly to the Israelis. So he went to Jerusalem.
Thus, contrary to Obama’s reconstruction of events in the 1970s, the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel was the result of an Israeli victory on the battlefield. Just as the reconciliation process in Iraq was the result of an American military victory. But the president and his advisers, special envoys and czars, can’t bring themselves to acknowledge that we defeated the terrorists in Iraq. And that little political stratagem contributes to their blindness to the full dimensions of the terror war.
The terror war, like the destiny of the Middle East, revolves around Tehran, the engine of the terror network, the inspiration and paymaster of many jihadis, and the most likely candidate for nuclear status in the near future. Alas, just as the Bush Administration never adopted an effective Iran policy, so the Obama Administration is marching in lockstep to the Bush music. Despite all the talk about a “new strategy,” Iran policy hasn’t changed at all, with the exception of all the bragging about “finally talking” to them. Obama’s Iran strategy is the same as Bush’s, combining sanctions, defensive measures such as arresting and sometimes even killing Iranian Revolutionary Guards forces operating against our men and women on the battlefield, and other financial measures designed to “increase the pressure” on the mullahs.
These measures have not worked in the past, nor have the negotiations that every president since Jimmy Carter has conducted with Iran. There is no reason to think they will succeed today.
Indeed, the Iranians have every reason to believe they can get most anything they want from America, and from America’s closest European ally, Great Britain. Little noticed by Iran watchers, a week ago an Iranian-sponsored terror group in Iraq announced that a deal had been struck that would result in the staged releases of five British hostages in exchange for several terrorists held by American forces. Not only that, but the Guardian reported that “Efforts to finalize the deal were a factor in Britain’s move to re-engage publicly with Hezbollah’s political wing in Lebanon this month.”
In simple English, we and the Brits appeased the Iranians on two levels: we released their killers and the Brits legitimized Hezbollah.
Iran now holds three American hostages: Robert Levinson, Roxana Saberi, and Esha Momeni. Levinson is an ex-F.B.I. agent who disappeared a year ago while in Iran. Saberi is a freelance journalist arrested in Iran at the end of January, and is now reportedly on a hunger strike in Evin Prison in Tehran. Momeni, a graduate student from Cal State University, was conducting research on the Iranian women’s movement (a particularly sensitive theme for the regime), and was rounded up last October.
The Iranians have successfully manipulated Western policy for decades, and not only, as is often claimed, because they are clever tacticians. Brutality is more characteristic of this regime, and hostage taking is one of their trademarks. It works, in part because nobody has any doubt about their willingness to torture and kill Western hostages, whose bodies would unfortunately fill a good-sized morgue. No wonder that Secretary of State Clinton gave the Iranians a letter about these unfortunate Americans.
It may not be entirely coincidental that Iran’s key Asian ally, North Korea, has just taken two American hostages. They’re female journalists who work for Al Gore’s “Current TV.” Do you think the president will refuse to listen to Gore when he begs for help for his people in that awful place?
Quite aside from the nuances of counterinsurgency warfare, nothing would so advance the cause of peace as the fall of the regime in Tehran, and its replacement by a government designed and elected by the Iranian people. I have long believed that can be accomplished peacefully, by supporting a non-violent democratic revolution in Iran. No American president in the last thirty years has attempted it, and most of them have acted as if they were actually afraid of supporting freedom for Iranians. A young Iranian blogger, upon hearing Obama’s love video to the mullahs, reacted with an elegant mixture of sadness and pride:
people have been tortured on the charges of having connections with the United States. Some have been silent thinking you will come to their rescue. At least Bush had the honesty to separate this regime from the people. How easy you play with the people card. Please do not talk about our people anymore. Engage the regime and leave us alone. We will free Iran, even when you are helping this occupying regime…
That’s the key issue. It should come naturally to any American president, but it doesn’t. I fear we’re going to pay a terrible price for this deliberate refusal to see evil right in front of our noses. Negotiations are a very long shot, and sanctions have never compelled an enemy to change its policy. If we do not support revolution, we will most likely get war, a war far greater and far more lethal than the one the mullahs have been waging against us since 1979.