LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 10/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Isaiah 44/18 They don’t know, neither do they consider: for he has shut their eyes, that they can’t see; and their hearts, that they can’t understand.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Syria will win Lebanon's elections.By Michael Young  09/04/09
March 14 took a position on the economy, but where does the opposition stand?  The Daily Star  09/04/09
Netanyahu's 2nd chance-By: Alon Ben-Meir Ynetnews 09/04/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 09/09
Heavy U.S. Military Aid to Lebanon Arrives ahead of Elections-Naharnet
Suleiman: I have no Parliamentary Candidates; Sader is Not With Military Intelligence-Naharnet
Egypt Accuses Nasrallah of Plotting Attacks-Naharnet
Jamaa Islamiya: No Deal with Mustaqbal unless our Demands are Met-Naharnet
Aoun Nominates Bassil, Younes for Batroun-Naharnet
Syria Criticizes Amendments Requested by Lebanon on 1559-Naharnet
Less Tension, No Berri-Aoun Solution in Baabda, Jezzine-Naharnet
March 14's Lists Nearing Completion in North-Naharnet
Final Touches on Metn's March 14-Murr List-Naharnet
Pre-Trial Judge Receives List of Names in Hariri Murder Case-Naharnet
Report: Two Lebanese Found in Suitcases Crossing into Iraq-Naharnet
State Budget Not on Cabinet Agenda-Naharnet
Army Arrests Top Gang Leader-Naharnet
Pakradounian: First Uncontested 2009 Parliamentary Winner-Naharnet
Warrants Lifted Against Lebanon Generals in Hariri Case-Naharnet
Baroud: Any Talk Regarding Postponing Elections Not True-Naharnet
Report: Washington Unhappy About Britain's Contacts with Hizbullah-Naharnet
Edde: I Am Still on March 14's Path-Naharnet
Suleiman Calls for Fighting Election Bribes, 'Whoever Wins, Wins'-Naharnet
U.S. Provides $50 Million to Support Lebanese Government's Economic Reforms-Naharnet
3 People Arrested, Thousands of Narcotic Pills Seized in North-Naharnet
One man's fight to take on Hezbollah-AFP
Lebanon to Turn Over Files on Hariri Slaying to UN Tribunal-Wall Street Journal
Egypt accuses Hizbullah of plotting attacks in country-Daily Star
Lebanon to strictly enforce mandatory car insurance law-Daily Star
Baroud rules out delays in parliamentary polls-Daily Star
Fadlallah: Obama's message to Muslims sincere-Daily Star
Judge lifts warrants against security chiefs.(AFP)
US 'not happy' with UK move to engage in talks with Hizbullah-Daily Star
Qaouq: Lebanon needs consensus government-Daily Star
UNIFIL commander praises army's cooperation-Daily Star
Zakki calls for bringing Medhat killers to justice-Daily Star
Mixed reactions after Siniora enters race-Daily Star
Baroud: June 7 polls mark key move toward political reform-Daily Star
Army nabs leader of biggest car-theft ring-Daily Star
Children to urge rival parties to pledge restraint during vote-Daily Star
Sleiman urges politicians, media to uphold ethics during polls-Daily Star

One man's fight to take on Hezbollah
BEIRUT (AFP) — Ahmad al-Asaad has decided to stand up to the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections, despite the widespread belief he stands no chance in the face of the Shiite Goliath.
"I will topple the Iranian project," Asaad, a south Lebanon native who heads his own mainly Shiite party, told AFP.
The election will pit the Hezbollah-led alliance, backed by Syria and Iran, against the Sunni-led majority, backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia.
The Lebanese Option Gathering, as Asaad's party is known, is an "independent" movement that aims, he says, to stand up to Hezbollah's "monopoly over Shiite representation" in Lebanon.
The 46-year-old mathematician-turned-businessman ran for a seat in the 2005 parliamentary elections but lost to Hezbollah by a wide margin.
Unfazed, the silver-haired father of two plans to run again, this time with a list of 14 members of his party, founded in July 2007.
Lebanon's rival political groups joined ranks in a unity government, in which the opposition has veto power, at the start of the summer of 2008 under a Doha-sponsored accord aimed at ending the worst inter-Lebanese violence to rock the country since the 1975-1990 civil war.
In May last year, gunmen linked to the Hezbollah-led opposition seized control over most of the western part of the capital Beirut and shut down the country's only functioning airport in protest against a cabinet decision.
The national unity government has been largely paralysed, however, with ministers locking horns over Hezbollah's stockpile of arms.
"The opposition's plans are dangerous for Lebanon and for the Shiites in particular," said Asaad, the son of former House Speaker Kamel al-Asaad.
"The opposition uses the Shiites as fuel in their plan to establish an Iranian empire."
The Asaad dynasty has itself come under fire among residents of the south, some of whom accuse the family of a political monopoly of its own.
"Ahmed al-Asaad is from a feudal family which wants to take us backwards and which considers us as servants," said Rami Hammud, a businessman from the southern coastal town of Tyre.
But Ahmad al-Asaad says his plan for the south, much of which was destroyed during Hezbollah's month-long war with Israel in 2006, is one of reform and development.
Yet his is a vision from afar, as he rarely frequents his hometown, 10 kilometres (six miles) from the Israeli border. In fact, he only returned to Lebanon in 2003 after decades abroad.
"Of course I'm afraid," Asaad told AFP. "I'm afraid they'll liquidate me. I fear for my life and my project."
In early April, a Lebanese Option Gathering member's car was set on fire in Beirut's southern suburbs, one of three major Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese press. Tens of cars owned by party members have been reported set on fire or bombed in the past year.
The party's offices, also in the southern suburbs, came under fire in March. "They come at night, like bats, and burn our cars. This is Hezbollah's responsibility," Asaad said. The militant party has denied any involvement. And while he has openly denounced Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's call for "open war" with Israel last year, he says he is ready to launch a war of his own against the Shiite militia. "The resistance's role is over," Asaad said. "We have had enough of Hezbollah using us and exploiting the people in the name of the resistance."

US 'not happy' with UK move to engage in talks with Hizbullah
Daily Star staff/Thursday, April 09, 2009
BEIRUT: The US State Department announced that it does not back Britain's moves to engage in dialogue with Hizbullah, stressing that it won't deal with any member of the Shiite group unless the party "surrenders its weapons and rejects violence." "The United States and Britain are strong allies that work together closely against terrorism," Ann Somerset, the spokeswoman for the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs told Kuwait's Al-Rai daily in comments published Wednesday.
"We both recognize the problem posed by Hizbullah in Lebanon and the region, but Britain decided to adopt a different approach," she said.
Several local and foreign newspapers reported earlier in the week that the new US administration under President Barack Obama is "comfortable" with the British government's recent attempts to engage Hizbullah in negotiations. The newspapers reported that Bill Rammell, Britain's Minister of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, said in Damascus last week that despite protests to the contrary, the Obama administration does not object to the fledgling contacts with the political wing of Hizbullah. Somerset, however, denied such reports saying "we told officials from Britain that our policy toward Hizbullah remains as it is and we don't back any policy that adopts dialogue with Hizbullah."
Al-Rai said US authorities have summoned the British ambassador to express discontent about London's decision to engage in direct contacts with Hizbullah's political wing. Washington "does not differentiate between the political, military or terrorist wing of Hizbullah," Somerset stressed. Hizbullah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan visited Britain last week in response to an invitation by members of the House of Commons. Speaking to reporters at the Rafik Hariri Airport last week, Hajj Hassan said his visit was not connected with the UK's recent decision to explore holding talks with Hizbullah's political wing. The British government had been boycotting the Lebanese party since 2005. "The British public opinion has changed. This is clearly reflected within the media. We work to change the international public opinion in favor of our causes as part of our media and political work," Raad said. Raad also called for making efforts to change the "fabricated and false image" presented by Israeli and foreign media of the "resistance in Lebanon, Palestine and the region." - The Daily Star

Egypt accuses Hizbullah of plotting attacks in country
By Andrew Wander /Daily Star staff
Thursday, April 09, 2009
BEIRUT: Egypt's state prosecutor accused Hizbullah of planning to carry out attacks inside Egypt on Wednesday, as Israel warned its citizens that they faced an "immediate and concrete" threat in the country. "The state prosecutor has received a statement from state security which shows that leaders from the Lebanese Hizbullah have called on its cadres to recruit members to its movement ... with the aim of carrying out acts of aggression inside the country," a statement from the prosecutor obtained by the AFP news agency said.
Egyptian security forces are questioning a group of 49 men accused of smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border on behalf of Hizbullah and Hamas. It is not clear when they were arrested, but a judicial source in Cairo confirmed that the prosecutor's allegations are linked to their detention.
The group of detainees is mainly made up of Egyptian nationals, but includes three Lebanese and several Palestinians. The Lebanese are understood to be suspected of acting as a link between Hamas in Gaza and their sympathizers in Egypt. The Egyptian lawyer representing the men, Montasser al-Zayyat, said that interrogations of the men began over the weekend. "The information that we have is that they are accused of weapons smuggling through tunnels and spreading Hizbullah ideology," he said.
He said the case had been created for political purposes. "My impression is that it is a fabricated case created by Egyptian security in the context of bad relations between Hizbullah and Egypt," he said on Wednesday. Hizbullah was highly critical of the Egyptian government's decision to close the Rafah crossing point during Israel's recent military offensive against Hamas in Gaza, which saw more than 1,400 Palestinians, most of them civilians, killed.
The prosecutor's statement also accuses Hizbullah of "spreading Shiite ideology." Meanwhile, Israeli authorities warned of a "serious, immediate and concrete threat," against Israeli citizens in the Sinai desert during the upcoming Jewish Passover holiday. Officials in Tel Aviv warned that Hizbullah could be planning to abduct Israelis in Egypt and take them to the Gaza, and called for Israeli citizens to leave the area immediately. The warning is the latest in a series of statements aimed at discouraging Israelis from visiting Arab countries in the wake of the Jewish state's assault on Gaza.
Israel issues regular warnings against potential risks to its citizens and has focused increasingly on Hizbullah since the group pledged revenge for the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, the group's senior military commander, in Damascus last year. The killing is believed to have been carried out by an Israeli hit-squad.
In the months after the killing, Hizbullah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that revenge would come at "the time, the place, the way and the means" of the group's choosing. But at the end of last month, a Hizbullah official vowed that the group would not carry out attacks abroad. "We will not carry out any operation outside our Lebanese territories," Mohammad Raad, the leader of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, said on a visit to the southern Lebanon.
Hizbullah officials contacted by The Daily Star on Wednesday were unable to issue immediate comment on the allegations. - with Agencies

Fadlallah: Obama's message to Muslims 'sincere'
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Tom Perry /Reuters
BEIRUT: One of Shiite Islam's highest religious authorities praised on Wednesday the "sincerity" of US President Barack Obama's message to the Muslim world and predicted a positive outcome for his approach to Iran. Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah said Obama appeared to be a man of "human values" but would be judged on his actions. The ayatollah urged Obama to rethink policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trying to repair America's damaged image abroad, Obama said on a visit to predominantly Muslim Turkey this week that the United States was not at war with Islam.
"This man does not lack sincerity in what he is saying about Islam," Fadlallah told Reuters in an interview at his Beirut office. Former US President George W. Bush had used similar language but his "mentality was not open" to Islam, he added.
"But the question that presents itself is whether President Obama can realize any of these slogans when faced by the institutions that govern America and over which the president does not have complete control," Fadlallah said.
Obama's first overseas tour, which included his visit to Turkey, "was not void of positive aspects," Fadlallah said. "But we have learned not to pass judgment on the basis of words."
Fadlallah was a staunch critic of the Middle East policies of the Bush administration, which led the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan and backed Israel during the summer 2006 war. Like other US presidents, Bush was also faulted by many in the Middle East for pro-Israeli policies in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Fadlallah, whose family comes from predominantly Shiite south Lebanon, criticized Obama's statement that Israelis and Palestinians must make compromises for peace.
"We know that the Palestinians offered every concession at the time when Israel did not offer any," he said.
The cleric said he had written to Obama urging him "to be the president who looks to the world with his eyes open ...."
The Obama administration has adopted a new approach to the Shiite Islamist government in Iran, pledging to engage a country which Bush included in what he called the axis of evil. Western states suspect Iran of seeking to develop atomic weapons, but Iran denies the charge, insisting its nuclear drive is aimed solely at generating electricity. "There is new language between Iran and America," Fadlallah said.
"America has acknowledged in the last period that Iran represents a great state in the region ... and the invasion of Iran is not possible via an American-Iranian war," he said. By inviting Iran to a UN conference on the conflict in Afghanistan last month, the United States had shown its need for Tehran's help, he added.
Asked about the prospects of a breakthrough in US-Iranian relations, Fadlallah said: "I believe the matter will end with positive results."
The growth of Iranian influence has alarmed conservative Arab states close to the United States, but Fadlallah said Arab concerns about Iran would ebb if US ties improve with Tehran. "If a positive dialogue takes place between Iran and America, this [Arab] view will disappear," he said.

Judge lifts warrants against security chiefs
Four to remain jailed pending tribunal decision
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Thursday, April 09, 2009
BEIRUT: A Lebanese investigating judge lifted Wednesday arrest warrants against four high-ranking generals jailed since 2005 in connection with former Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination AFP. However the official, who asked not to be identified, added that Judge Sakr Sakr also order that the four remain in jail pending a decision on their fate by The Hague-based Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).
Sakr issued his decision as he approved the transfer of Lebanese documents linked to a probe into Hariri's 2005 murder to the tribunal set up to try suspects in the case and in the killings of other Lebanese figures. "Lebanon's justice system has decided to stand back from the case and stop its probe," Sakr said in his ruling.
He added that it was up to the STL to decide whether the generals, who have not been formally charged, would remain behind bars.
The four generals are the former head of the Presidential Guard, Mustafa Hamdan, security services director Jamil Sayyed, domestic security chief Ali Hajj and military intelligence chief Raymond Azar. Sayyed's lawyer Akram Azouri welcomed Wednesday's decision, saying it augured well for his client. "This means that the generals no longer stand accused or can be considered under arrest," he told AFP. "They are now simply detained and the judge's ruling put an end to the case between us the Lebanese judiciary." He added that he expects the special tribunal to order the release of his client and the three other generals in the coming days. The Central News Agency reported Tuesday that surveillance cameras were set up around the houses of the four detained Lebanese generals Tuesday amid speculation they would be released under house arrest. On Wednesday, Lebanese authorities have begun shipping records of their investigation into Hariri's assassination of to the Netherlands-based tribunal prosecuting the former premier's suspected killers. A judge at the tribunal has formally requested that Lebanese authorities turn over the documents, bringing the tribunal a step closer to seeking custody of the generals who have not been formally charged. The tribunal's registrar Robin Vincent had told The Daily Star Friday that even though four Lebanese judges were sworn in last month at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the court still cannot release their names because of concerns for their security.
The tribunal announced on March 24 that Antonio Cassese, an Italian, had taken his oath as president of the tribunal's judges, while Belgium's Daniel Fransen had been sworn in as the court's pre-trial judge. The Lebanese judges - among them the tribunal's vice president as required by the court's statutes - were sworn in with the seven international jurists, but their identities remain a secret. The court released Cassese's and Fransen's names because security measures had been taken in their home countries, but the names of the Lebanese judges will come out only when the judges say the security precautions here are sufficient, Vincent said.
Hariri's murder in a seafront bombing was one of the worst acts of political violence to rock Lebanon since its 1975-90 Civil War, and led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops after a 29-year presence. A UN investigative commission has pointed to evidence that Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services were involved in Hariri's killing on February 14, 2005. Damascus has consistently denied any involvement in the attack and in the murders of several other anti-Syrian politicians since 2005. - AFP, with The Daily Star

Qaouq: Lebanon needs consensus government
By Mohammed Zaatari /Daily Star staff
Thursday, April 09, 2009
SIDON: Hizbullah's official in south Lebanon Sheikh Nabil Qaouq said Tuesday the opposition was certain that Lebanon can only be governed by consensus and partnership. "The opposition is completely aware that Lebanon can only be governed through consensus. It is also aware of the need for a national partnership in order for the Lebanese formula to remain viable," he said during a political rally. Qaouq warned that a policy of "monopolization and marginalization will only harm Lebanon and the Lebanese." He criticized the March 14 Forces for "readying themselves to plunge Lebanon into a state of chaos and divisions, and stick to foreign orders and directives." - Mohammed Zaatari

Netanyahu's 2nd chance
Obama may find new Israeli PM a willing partner for sustainable peace
Alon Ben-Meir
Published: 04.09.09, 13:06 / Israel Opinion
The new Israeli government led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has raised many conflicting feelings among those concerned about the fate of the Arab-Israeli peace process. Will Netanyahu scuttle the little progress that was made under his predecessor Olmert, or will he engage the Palestinians anew?
Silencing Peace
Instead of blaming Bibi, condemn those who silenced Palestinian ‘Peace orchestra’
Questions about whether he will resume negotiations with Syria, how he will tackle Iran's nuclear threat, and if he will get along with President Obama remain unanswered. Yet given the right political environment created by the Obama administration and supported by the leading Arab states and the Palestinians, Netanyahu has the potential to advance the peace negotiations significantly, and may end up surprising everyone in the process.
On the positive side, those who know him well suggest that Netanyahu has matured considerably since he was first prime minister (1996-1999). He is well aware that he may never be given another opportunity as PM and that he now stands before an historic crossroad. Netanyahu understands the requirements for peace from being at the negotiating table many times before. He appreciates the Israeli public sentiments and is certainly not oblivious to what the Obama administration expects from any Israeli prime minister at this juncture in a region laden with multiple crises. Moreover, the eyes of the international community are fixed on him and he is only too aware of the burden he has just assumed and the limited time he has to demonstrate sound policies.
Netanyahu has said he wants peace with security for his country. He argues for strengthening the Palestinian economy and engaging in the peace process, while not excluding making progress on the Syrian front. Iran still poses the largest security threat to Israel, and Netanyahu insists that it must be neutralized.
There is nothing from his tough campaign rhetoric that precludes the establishment of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. While the appointment of the right-wing Avigdor Lieberman as foreign minister may have signaled to many a shift away from any peacemaking efforts, it is likely that Netanyahu will use Lieberman strategically for his tough rhetoric to satisfy the more hawkish Israeli constituency.
When it comes down to the bargaining table though, once Netanyahu feels he has an honest shot at peace with security he will not let Lieberman get in his way. Persuading Labor to join his coalition government and Ehud Barak as his defense minister also shifts the balance of power toward moderation. His coalition may well signal that the future peace process will be anchored in tight security arrangements, and that he and Barak can offer the toughness and leverage needed to secure such a peace.
Netanyahu and Barak are capable of negotiating simultaneously with both Syria and the Palestinians. Though the peace negotiations with the Palestinians will be painstaking and take much longer to conclude, a steady progress can still be made aggressively while pursuing the Syrian track.
Alternatively, left to his own ideological convictions and without American pressure, Netanyahu can easily retreat back to his old ways. Palestinian disunity and internal struggle within the Arab states will make finding a partner for peace extremely difficult. He will likely expand the settlements, respond harshly to Hamas' violent provocations, and focus exclusively on Iranian threats while relegating the Israeli-Palestinian peace process to the back burner. He might even ignore Syria's overtures for peace, especially because Damascus is not in a position to regain the Golan by force. It is possible Netanyahu will only attempt to pay lip service to Obama's political agenda in the Middle East, and will cooperate only on matters of national security.
Specific and clear
These are the two sides to Netanyahu, though they are not necessarily contradictory. He can lean to either direction depending on the level, intensity and consistency of the American involvement not only in trying to mediate an Israeli-Palestinian peace but engaging all other regional players in conflict resolution. To enlist Netanyahu as a partner for peace, President Obama must be specific and clear about what must and can be done to advance the peace process while addressing Israel's main national security concerns, starting with Iran.
The Obama administration needs to heavily cooperate with Israel over Iran's nuclear program, and must demonstrate greater sensitivity to Israel's concerns over this existential threat. Whereas a diplomatic course with Tehran must be fully explored by the US, it must commence immediately so that any possible resolution to the nuclear impasse can be found within 2009, a timeframe that is considered safe before Israel contemplates taking matters into its own hands.
While President Obama must support Netanyahu's plan to build a strong economic base for the Palestinians, he must at the same time insist that political progress is also being made, especially in the West Bank. In that context, George Mitchell and the Obama administration must be clear with Netanyahu that all illegal outposts are dismantled and a temporary freeze on all settlement activity is enforced. These actions have almost no security implications for Israel, but they create conditions that must exist for the Palestinians and Arab states to take the negotiations seriously.
As Mr. Obama recently embraced the Arab Peace Initiative when he met with Saudi King Abdullah in London, he must now lean heavily on the leading Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria as well (now that Washington and Damascus are talking) to exert whatever pressure necessary on Hamas to moderate and join the political process. They must resolve now to rein in Hamas and establish a Palestinian unity government with the Palestinian Authority that can speak in one voice. Moreover, the Obama administration must take every measure necessary to prevent future smuggling of weapons to Gaza. Otherwise, as long as Hamas has weapons and continues to violently resist Israel's existence, it will provide Netanyahu with a valid excuse to freeze the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
President Obama must also openly call on Netanyahu to put the Israeli-Syrian negotiations on the fast track and be prepared to become directly involved in the process. By engaging Syria, the Obama administration can re-contextualize the peace process and give it the comprehensiveness that has been lacking. Peace between Israel and Syria is within reach and could have broad regional security implications serving both the US’ as well as Israel's national security interests. Moreover, without Israeli-Syrian rapprochement, the task of dealing with Iran will be simply insurmountable.
To be sure, Netanyahu knows that this is his second and likely final chance to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process, but he is not prepared to undermine Israel's legitimate national security concerns for the sake of claiming the peace. As long as President Obama discerns those genuine national security issues and addresses them effectively with Netanyahu, he may find the new Israeli prime minister a willing partner for sustainable peace.
**Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies. Web: www.alonben-meir.com

March 14 took a position on the economy, but where does the opposition stand?
By The Daily Star
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Editorial
The March 14 movement has released its policy statement-campaign document, with a heavy emphasis on its economic vision and priority list for the next Cabinet to be formed.
It's the type of document that many people might not take seriously, busy with the latest news of horse-trading and seat-swapping within the rival camps, as they prepare for the coming parliamentary election round in June.
And as everyone knows, there will likely be some wheeling and dealing after the elections are over, when forming a new Cabinet, is on the table.
It's very likely that we will have another "blocking third" or veto power demanded by the losing side in the elections, whoever the losing side is: the March 14 coalition might win the election and it might not, and whatever the minority side, members of this group might take us back to the blocking third.
But the March 14 document is a much-needed blueprint for the country after June 7. There are some generalities that require fleshing-out: It's not enough to mention agriculture and industry, for example. What we need is a clearer picture of exactly what kind of agriculture, and industry we're talking about. But the March 14 "team" won't be a surprise. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Future Movement leader Saad Hariri enjoy the required political and economic clout. With a March 14 victory, we might see Hariri as prime minister, with Siniora available as a senior economic official to manage this agenda in Parliament, at a critically important economic juncture.
It's now the turn of the opposition to get its act together and come up with a single document as a response, one that takes into consideration the likely scenario of a consensus-induced government in June.
This newspaper and its readers are anxious to see specifics, since Lebanon is a country that has notoriously avoided hard numbers when it comes to many social and economic policies. The March 14 side has been on message, whether through al-Hariri interviews on television or events and rallies where Future or March 14 has taken center stage.
Even if March 14 doesn't win, we know the identity of its point people on the economy. But what is the strategy of the minority? Putting out a central document gives voters a clearer choice about what they're likely to get, and if politicians don't deliver, at least we have something to hold them accountable against.
Siniora and Hariri are the nucleus of the team; their document is the blueprint. What about the other side?

Syria will win Lebanon's elections
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Two months away from Lebanon's elections, we can begin to discern clarity amid the vapors of boiling ambition. Over 700 candidates are registered to contest 128 parliamentary seats, but the real story lies elsewhere. Whether it is the March 14 coalition and its allies that wins, or the March 8 coalition with the Aounists, the forthcoming Parliament will be much friendlier to Syria than the current one is, representing a marked return of Damascus' hegemony over Lebanon.
There are several reasons for this, both regional and local. Regionally, the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement has fundamentally altered the nature of the political confrontation in Lebanon. Following the summer war of 2006, the Saudis sought to isolate Syria (and with it Iran) in Lebanon and the Arab world. However, that effort largely failed. The Saudis, instead, found themselves isolated as they and the Egyptians proved unable to derail the Arab League summit in Damascus in March 2008, before later seeing another rival, Qatar, host Lebanese reconciliation talks in May, after Hizbullah's military onslaught against western Beirut. The Gaza conflict, which confirmed the extent to which Damascus and Tehran were able to play a spoiler role on the Palestinian front, persuaded the Saudis to engage President Bashar Assad in order to break Syria off from Iran, even if there is great skepticism in Riyadh as to whether that will work.
Skepticism or not, the Saudis are fulfilling their end of the bargain, particularly in Lebanon. In practical terms this appears to be leading, for example, to an alliance in Tripoli between Saad Hariri, Najib Mikati, and, if it goes through, Mohammad Safadi. The Saudis want to unify Sunni ranks, but in a way where the Syrians will be able to have their say with the Lebanese. That's why, whoever wins the elections, the next prime minister is likely to be Mikati, whom the Syrians trust but who won't stray away from the Saudis or from the Lebanese Sunni consensus.
The first to understand the implications of this shift was Walid Jumblatt. The Druze leader has irritated many in March 14 by moving closer to the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, while persistently criticizing his own allies. However, Jumblatt knows that Berri is returning as speaker, so he sees benefits in maintaining a good relationship with him, as he does in using this to calm Druze-Shiite tensions. But a longer-term explanation for Jumblatt's behavior is that he now needs a conduit to Damascus, and Berri provides one. Kamal Jumblatt paid with his life for the Syrian-Saudi agreement over Lebanon in 1976, which left him cut off politically and vulnerable to assassination. Walid doesn't want to repeat that.
Whether Jumblatt will once again visit Damascus is an open question. But it seems highly improbable that he will adopt as hostile a position against Syria as he did in the past four years. With Saad Hariri bringing Mikati on board and perhaps having to accept him as the next prime minister; with Jumblatt realigning on Syria and strengthening his ties to Berri, who with his bloc will represent a substantial Syrian stake in the system, alongside Hizbullah, the Assad regime will find that a substantial share of Muslim parliamentarians either support close ties with Syria or are in no position to effectively oppose them.
What of the Christians? Michel Aoun may lose seats, but he is not likely to lose very many to Syria's adversaries. The Lebanese Forces and the Phalange are optimistic about their chances, and have been rapacious in their demands. However, in several constituencies their candidates are dependent on volatile electoral alliances. In the Chouf, the Metn, and perhaps even Beirut 1 if their Armenian Orthodox nominee stays in the race, the Lebanese Forces candidates are at the mercy of larger power blocs with whom they are not particularly close. The same holds for the Phalange in Tripoli, Aley, and Zahleh, while even in the Metn the party's expected candidates, Sami Gemayel and Elie Karami, are not guaranteed a victory if there is under-the-table collusion against one or both of them.
As for the Metn, if Aoun recedes, the likelihood is that it is Michel Murr who will gain. As a supporter of President Michel Sleiman, and given his past, he has no quarrel with Syria. As for Kisirwan and Jbeil, Aoun's losses, if any, will mainly add to Sleiman's quota. And in the event Aoun retains his seats in both districts, that will suit Syria just fine. That's why, for example, Aoun's dispute with Berri over the Christian seats in Jezzine and Zahrani may continue without a resolution. Whether it is Aoun or Berri who wins, the Syrians will come out ahead in the end, even if they lean toward Berri. As for Hizbullah, does it really want to see Aoun and the Christians reaffirming themselves politically in Jezzine, behind the new defense line the party is building against Israel?
Bashar Assad has promised that the June election will be Syria's ticket back into Lebanon, and he appears to be on the road to fulfilling that promise. The Saudis have made their peace with him, as have the Egyptians, and the Americans are too preoccupied with Afghanistan and Iraq to concern themselves with
halting Syrian advances in Lebanon. As long as the southern border remains quiet, there is little to trouble the international community.
With respect to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, prosecutor Daniel Bellemare will almost certainly not issue an accusation before 2010, because his predecessor wasted two years by not moving his investigation substantially forward. That's plenty of time for Assad to make himself relevant again internationally and to ensure, from Beirut, that Lebanese judges on the tribunal will think twice before pointing the finger at Syria. For all intents and purposes, the momentum of the Hariri legal case has been lost, and given renewed Saudi friendliness toward Syria, we shouldn't expect the Hariri family to complain about this.
The March 8-March 14 dichotomy no longer seems appropriate today, despite the furious debate in Lebanon over who will win next June. Whoever wins, Syria will emerge on top, its crimes forgotten and its interests protected. That may sound benign when expressed this way, but those interests will certainly expand in the future, to Lebanon's detriment. So much for Lebanon's so-called Cedar Revolution, never a revolution in the first place, and now as exposed as any old tree to being cut down.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR