LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 11/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 3,22-30. After this, Jesus and his disciples went into the region of Judea, where he spent some time with them baptizing. John was also baptizing in Aenon near Salim, because there was an abundance of water there, and people came to be baptized, for John had not yet been imprisoned. Now a dispute arose between the disciples of John and a Jew about ceremonial washings. So they came to John and said to him, "Rabbi, the one who was with you across the Jordan, to whom you testified, here he is baptizing and everyone is coming to him." John answered and said, "No one can receive anything except what has been given him from heaven. You yourselves can testify that I said (that) I am not the Messiah, but that I was sent before him. The one who has the bride is the bridegroom; the best man, who stands and listens for him, rejoices greatly at the bridegroom's voice. So this joy of mine has been made complete. He must increase; I must decrease."

Saint Augustine (354-430), Bishop of Hippo (North Africa) and Doctor of the Church
Sermon 194, 11th sermon on the Nativity of the Lord/"This joy of mine has been made complete"
Listen, children of light: you who have been adopted for the Kingdom of God; listen, my dearest brethren; listen and exult for joy in the Lord, you just, for «praise from the upright is fitting» (Ps 33,1). Listen to what you already know; reflect on what you have heard; love what you believe; proclaim what you love!...Christ is born, God from his Father, man through his mother. He was born from his Father's immortality and his mother's virginity. From the Father without the aid of a mother; from the mother without that of a father. From his Father without time; from his mother without seed. According to his Father he is the principle of life; according to his mother, the ending of death. According to his Father he was born to determine the order of days; according to his mother, to consecrate the day that is here. He sent John the Baptist before him, causing him to be born when the days were beginning to decrease, while he himself was born when the days began to grow in length, thus prefiguring John's own words: «He must increase, I must decrease». For indeed, human life must grow weaker in itself but stronger in Jesus Christ «so that those who live might no longer live for themselves but for him who for their sake died and was raised» (2Cor 5,15), and so that each one of us might repeat those words of the apostle Paul: «Yet I live, no longer I, but Christ lives in me» (Gal 2,20).

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Will We Be Able to Bring Peace to Gaza this Time?Dr. Walid Phares 10/01/09
The responsibility to deliver-By Ban Ki-moon 10/01/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 10/09
Hamas rejects international observers in Gaza-International Herald Tribune
Abbas urges Israel to accept Gaza truce plan-guardian.co.uk
Israeli forces pound targets, draw near Gaza City-AP
Lebanese Army, U.N. Find Weapons Cache Near Israel Border-Naharnet
Mughniyeh's Posthumous Role in the Gaza Fighting-Naharnet
Williams Worried About Rocket Attack, U.N. Chief in Beirut on Jan. 16-Naharnet
Lebanese Fertility Expert: First British Baby Born Free of Cancer Gene-Naharnet
Larijani: Lebanon is the Head of Resistance-Naharnet
Nassib Lahoud: Cabinet Does Not Provide Israel With Free Assurances-Naharnet
Saniora: Lebanon is Not a Post Box For Regional, International Messages-Naharnet
March 14 Questions Harmony Between Military and Cabinet on Rocket Incident-Naharnet
PFLP-GC Set Up Missile Platforms in Qossaya Directed toward Israel-Naharnet
Hizbullah Relocated Positions … Next Battle to be Launched from Bekaa-Naharnet
Report: Hizbullah wary of another war with Israel-Ynetnews
Modeling Terrorist Group Behavior: Hamas & Hezbollah-The Terror Work
Will We Be Able to Bring Peace to Gaza this Time?FOXNews
Lebanese Army, UNIFIL unearth arms cache near Israeli border (AFP)
Discussions at seminar on Gaza war fail to break new ground-Daily Star
Hizbullah didn't launch rockets, but didn't stop them either - analysts-(AFP)
Gaza war echoes much of Lebanon in 2006-Daily Star
Lebanese media show united front on Gaza atrocities-Daily Star
Beirut receives bids to run cellular grids for one year-Daily Star

Israel tells Gazans to brace for war escalation
By Ibrahim Barzak And Josef Federman, The Associated Press
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Israeli forces pounded rocket-launching sites and smuggling tunnels in the Gaza Strip on Saturday and planes dropped leaflets warning of an escalation in attacks, as Palestinian militants fired at least 15 more rockets at Israel. Egypt hosted talks aimed at ending the violence. Flames and smoke rose over Gaza City amid the heavy fighting. The Israeli threat to launch a "new phase" in its two-week-old offensive that has already killed more than 800 Palestinians came in defiance of international calls for a ceasefire. Thirteen Israelis have died; nine were soldiers killed in Gaza and four, including one soldier, were killed by rocket attacks on Israel.
"The IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) will escalate the operation in the Gaza Strip," the leaflets said in Arabic.
"The IDF is not working against the people of Gaza but against Hamas and the terrorists only. Stay safe by following our orders."
The leaflets urged Gaza residents not to help Hamas, the Islamic militant group that rules Gaza and to stay away from its members. Israel launched the offensive Dec. 27 to halt years of Palestinian rocket attacks on southern Israel. A week later, ground troops moved in. The dropping of the leaflets appeared to be partly a psychological tactic. Israeli defence officials say they are prepared for a third stage of the offensive, in which ground troops would push much further into Gaza but are still waiting for approval from the government. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing classified information, said the army also has a fourth stage planned that calls for a full reoccupation of Gaza and toppling of Hamas.
The Israeli military said more than 15 militants were killed in overnight fighting. It said aircraft attacked more than 40 targets including 10 rocket-launching sites, weapons-storage facilities, smuggling tunnels, an anti-aircraft missile launcher and gunmen. In the day's bloodiest incident, an Israeli tank shell killed nine people in a garden outside a home in the northern Gaza town Jebaliya, said Adham el-Hakim, administrator of Kamal Adwan hospital. The Israeli military disputed the account, saying its forces did not carry out attacks in that area Saturday.
Israel has come under international criticism for the rising number of civilian casualties. Palestinian paramedics said the nine people killed in the garden were from the same clan and included two children and two women. Residents brought them to the hospital in a civilian car. They put them all in the trunk because their bodies were mangled," Hakim said. Separately, a woman was killed by tank fire in the nearby town Beit Lahiya. The Israeli army has repeatedly accused Hamas of using civilians as human shields and launching attacks from schools, mosques and homes. Earlier this week, an Israeli attack outside a UN school killed nearly 40 people. Both Israel and Palestinian witnesses said militants carried out an attack from the area moments earlier.
Palestinian medical officials say roughly one-half of the more than 800 Palestinians who have been killed were civilians.
Five Israeli soldiers were lightly wounded in Saturday's fighting. Israel and Hamas ignored a UN resolution passed Thursday calling for an immediate and durable ceasefire that would lead to the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Israel has dismissed the Security Council resolution as impractical, while Hamas, whose government in Gaza is not recognized internationally, is angry it was not consulted in the diplomatic efforts. In Cairo, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority president urged both Israel and Hamas to agree to an Egypt-brokered truce Saturday. After meeting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Mahmoud Abbas stressed there was no time to waste in ending the bloodshed in Gaza, home to 1.4 million people.
"If any party does not accept it (the truce), regrettably it will be the one bearing the responsibility and if Israel doesn't want to accept, it will take the responsibility of perpetuating a waterfall of blood," Abbas said. Hamas officials from both Gaza and Syria are also in Cairo for separate talks with Egyptian officials on a truce. Israeli officials visited Cairo earlier this week. Hamas and Abbas's Fatah party, which dominates the West Bank of the Jordan River, are fierce political rivals but the president still claims authority over Gaza. Hamas violently took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. In Damascus, Syria-based Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas, on Saturday rejected any deployment of international observers or troops in Gaza. A statement issued by the groups after a meeting attended by Hamas political leader Khaled Mashaal also rejected any security arrangement that "infringes on the right of resistance against Israeli occupation."
Palestinian security officials said some of the heaviest fighting Saturday occurred on the strategic coastal road north of Gaza City, home to 400,000 Palestinians. Israeli forces moved to within about 1.6 kilometres of the city before pulling back slightly.
While Israel has largely taken control of the road, militants operate from hidden positions in the area. The road is often used to fire rockets into Israel or attack Israeli navy boats off the Mediterranean coast. At least 15 rockets landed in Israel on Saturday, the army said. One rocket hit an apartment building in the southern city Ashkelon, wounding three people, one of them seriously. The offensive has caused extensive damage throughout Gaza. The United Nations estimates two-thirds of Gaza's 1.4 million people are without electricity and one-half don't have running water.
The Israeli military announced a three-hour halt to operations in Gaza on Saturday to let besieged residents leave their homes and stock up supplies. Medics use the lull to rescue casualties and aid groups also rush through food distribution. But for the second straight day, there were reports of continued fighting during the lulls.
Israel has called for the three-hour breaks in fighting for the last four days. But aid groups say it isn't enough time to do their work.
Salam Kanaan of Save the Children said in previous lulls, the agency distributed food to 9,500 people - far short of the 150,000 people it serves.
UN official Adnan Abu Hasna said the Palestinian refugee agency would distribute aid to about 40,000 people, one-half of them holed up in UN schools that have been transformed into shelters. All deliveries were coming from supplies already in Gaza. UN officials said a halt on aid shipments into Gaza through Israeli-controlled border crossings remains in effect. The ban was imposed Thursday after a UN truck driver was shot and killed by Israel. It was unclear when the deliveries will resume.
"As each day goes by and for each moment that the ceasefire demanded by the Security Council is not observed, the crisis continues," said UN spokesman Chris Gunness. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert by phone Friday and told the prime minister he was disappointed the violence was continuing in disregard of the resolution, Ban's office said.
Israel says any ceasefire must include assurances Hamas will halt attacks and end the smuggling of weapons into Gaza through the porous Egyptian border.
Hamas has said it won't accept any ceasefire deal that does not include the full opening of Gaza's border crossings. The UN resolution emphasized the need to open all crossings, which Israel and Egypt have kept sealed since Hamas militants forcibly seized control of the territory 18 months ago.
Israeli leaders oppose that step because it would allow Hamas to strengthen its hold on Gaza

Makari: Palestinian Arms Are Syrian Tools
Naharnet/Deputy Speaker Farid Makari on Saturday described Palestinian arms outside Lebanon's refugee camps as "Syrian tools" and urged government consensus in issues of war and peace. Makari also told Voice of Lebanon radio station it was important to speed up the implementation of what Lebanese leaders agreed on regarding Palestinian arms outside the camps. He lauded the government's decision to condemn the rocket attack on northern Israel and the Jewish state's response. The cabinet also on Thursday rejected turning south Lebanon into a platform for launching missiles. The government's stance should be followed "by speeding up the implementation of what the Lebanese agreed on during the first national dialogue in 2006 regarding Palestinian arms outside refugee camps particularly that" such weapons "continue to be used as a tool by Syria," Makari told VDL. He said Palestinian weapons that "receive instructions from Damascus are not in the interest of stability in Lebanon." Makari also praised the government's reiteration that it holds onto the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the war between Israel and Hizbullah in the summer of 2006. Consensus during Thursday's session should prevail in all "issues related to Lebanon's security and stability and decisions of war and peace," the deputy speaker added. Beirut, 10 Jan 09, 14:15

Raad: Hizbullah Ready to Face any Israeli Stupidity
Naharnet/
Tens of thousands of people took part in a Hizbullah-organized protest in the southern Lebanese town of Nabatiyeh on Saturday against Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip. Demonstrators waved yellow Hizbullah flags and Palestinian flags as they marched through the streets of Nabatiyeh, a stronghold of the Shiite.
Women wearing the Palestinian keffiyeh scarf over black chadors carried a sign that read "July (2006) was a walk in the park," in reference to a threat made by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an address on Wednesday. "Death to Israel! Death to America!" the protestors yelled as others held a banner that read "Whatever happens, Gaza, the Katyushas (rockets) are waiting." "The Israeli aggression and invasion of Gaza will reaffirm once again the hatred the people of Arab and Muslim regions have for the American administration that allowed the bloodshed and supported the Israeli enemy," said the head of Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc, Mohammed Raad. "We are ready to face any (Israeli) stupidity," he added. Since the Israeli offensive began on December 27, at least 821 Palestinians have been killed, including 235 children, 93 women, and 12 paramedics. Another 3,350 people have been wounded, overwhelming Gaza's beleaguered medical facilities, already weakened by an Israeli blockade of the territory in force since Hamas seized power in June 2007.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 10 Jan 09, 19:06

Berri to Istanbul Next Week to Take Part in Gaza Conference
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will head to Turkey next week to take part in the Asian Parliaments' conference for the support of Gaza. Arab Parliamentary Union called for: - A unified stance on the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip - Halting all sort of negotiations with Israel - Formation of a parliamentary delegation to tour world decision-makers and urge them to force Israel into ending its aggression on Gaza. NNA said Berri is likely to meet senior Turkish officials while in Istanbul. Beirut, 10 Jan 09, 17:37

Israeli forces pound targets, draw near Gaza City
AP/GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip – Israeli forces pounded dozens of targets and edged closer to Gaza City on Saturday while southern Israel was largely spared militant rocket fire in one of its quietest nights in the two-week offensive against Hamas.
The Israeli military said more than 15 militants were killed in heavy fighting Saturday with its ground forces inside Gaza. Its aircraft attacked more than 40 targets throughout Gaza, striking 10 rocket-launching sites, weapons-storage facilities, smuggling tunnels, an anti-aircraft missile launcher and gunmen. Flames and smoke could be seen rising into the sky over Gaza City. Palestinian hospital officials confirmed only four deaths, but fighting has hindered paramedics from collecting bodies and treating the wounded. Eight people were killed by Israeli tank fire Saturday in the town of Jebailiya, Palestinian medical officials said. The dead appeared to be civilians, paramedics on the scene said. The Israeli army said it was investigating the incident.
Palestinian medical officials say more than 800 people have been killed in Israel's two-week offensive against Hamas militants in Gaza. Roughly half of the dead are believed to have been civilians. The fighting raged after both Israel and Hamas ignored a U.N. resolution calling for an immediate and durable cease-fire that would lead to the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Israel has dismissed the Security Council resolution passed Thursday as impractical, while Hamas, whose government in Gaza is not recognized internationally, is angry it was not consulted about the diplomatic efforts. Some of the heaviest fighting Saturday occurred on the strategic coastal road north of Gaza City, Palestinian security officials said. Israeli forces moved to within about 1 mile of the city before pulling back slightly.
While Israel has largely taken control of the road, militants continue to operate from hidden positions in the area. The road is often used to fire rockets into Israel or attack Israeli navy boats off the Mediterranean coast. Israel launched the offensive on Dec. 27 to halt years of Palestinian rocket attacks on southern Israel. A week later, ground troops moved in, with artillery and tank fire that has contributed to a surge in civilian casualties.
Palestinian medical officials say more than 800 Palestinians have been killed, roughly half of them civilians. Thirteen Israelis have been killed — four of them by militant rockets, the rest in battle in Gaza. Five soldiers were lightly wounded in Saturday's fighting.
In a possible sign of progress for the military, no rockets were fired into Israel overnight, a sharp drop from the dozens of projectiles that were launched in the early days of the offensive. Israeli military officials cautioned against reading too much into the lull, and by Saturday morning, several rockets had landed in Israel. Two struck the southern city of Ashkelon, lightly wounding two people, authorities said. The offensive has caused extensive damage throughout Gaza, fueling fears of an impending humanitarian crisis. The United Nations estimates two-thirds of Gaza's 1.4 million people are without electricity, and half don't have running water.
The Israeli military said it would halt the fire in Gaza for three hours on Saturday to allow the territory's besieged residents to leave their homes and stock up on supplies. Medics use the lull to rescue casualties in areas of fighting, and aid groups also rush through food distribution.
It is the third time in recent days that Israel has suspended its offensive to allow aid groups to work. But the groups say three hours isn't enough time. Salam Kanaan of Save the Children said in previous lulls, for instance, the agency distributed food to 9,500 people — far short of the 150,000 people it serves.
U.N. official Adnan Abu Hasna said the Palestinian refugee agency would distribute aid to about 40,000 people, half of them holed up in U.N. schools that have been transformed into shelters. All deliveries were coming from existing supplies already in Gaza. U.N. officials said a halt on aid shipments into Gaza through Israeli-controlled border crossings remained in effect. The ban was imposed Thursday after a U.N. truck driver was shot and killed by Israel. It was unclear when the deliveries will resume.
"As each day goes by, and for each moment that the cease-fire demanded by the Security Council is not observed, the crisis continues," said U.N. spokesman Chris Gunness. In Israel's first official response to the U.N. resolution, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office said more Hamas rockets fired Friday "only prove that the U.N.'s decision is not practical and will not be kept in practice by the Palestinian murder organizations."
Senior Cabinet ministers issued a statement saying the military offensive would continue until rocket fire from the Hamas-ruled territory ends. Hamas, which receives backing from Iran and Syria, has improved its capabilities to the point that roughly one-eighth of Israel's 7 million citizens now live in rocket range.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon spoke with Olmert by phone and Friday and told the prime minister that he was disappointed the violence was continuing in disregard of the resolution, according to Ban's office. Hamas also dismissed the resolution, and spokesmen expressed annoyance they were not consulted.
"Nobody consulted Hamas or talked to Hamas. Nobody put Hamas in the picture and yet Hamas is required to accept it. This is unacceptable," Mohammed Nazzal, a senior Hamas official based in Syria, told Al-Arabiya television. Israel says any cease-fire must include assurances that Hamas will halt attacks and end the smuggling of weapons into Gaza through the porous Egyptian border. Hamas has said it won't accept any cease-fire deal that does not include the full opening of Gaza's border crossings. The U.N. resolution emphasized the need to open all crossings, which Israel and Egypt have kept sealed since Hamas militants forcibly seized control of the territory 18 months ago. Israeli leaders oppose that step because it would allow Hamas to strengthen its hold on Gaza.
The foreign minister in the Western-backed government of President Mahmoud Abbas, which was driven out of Gaza by the rival Hamas in 2007, criticized both Israel and Hamas for not accepting the demand for a halt to fighting.
"Both have responded to the resolution in the same way, in total disrespect," Riad Malki said at U.N. headquarters in New York. He said the Security Council should enforce its resolution, perhaps by levying sanctions. The rising civilian death toll has drawn heavy criticism of Israel from international aid groups and triggered anger throughout the Islamic world and elsewhere. There have been daily protests in the Middle East and in Europe, where there also has been a rise in anti-Semitic attacks.
In Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it is difficult to protect civilians in a place as densely populated as Gaza — an area just 25 miles long and roughly six miles wide. "It's also an area in which Hamas participates in activities like human shields and using buildings that are not designated as military buildings to hide their fighters," she told reporters. Seven Hamas officials crossed into Egypt on Friday through the Gaza border crossing at Rafah, on their way to Cairo for Egyptian-hosted negotiations on a truce with Israel. The talks were expected to begin sometime Saturday following the arrival of a Hamas delegation from Syria, including politburo members Mohammed Nasr and Imad al-Alami.
**Barzak reported this story from Gaza City and Josef Federman from Jerusalem.

Report: Hizbullah wary of another war with Israel
Source affiliated with Shiite group says its supporters reacted negatively to Thursday's rocket attack on north Israel, indicating they do not support fresh aggression against Jewish state
Roee Nahmias Published: 01.09.09, 21:39 / Israel News
A source affiliated with Hizbullah told the London-based Arabic language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat Friday that while the Shiite group has placed its forces on the highest alert level, it is not seeking another war with Israel.
Shiite Group
Nasrallah says Hizbullah ready to fight Israel / Roee Nahmias
'Lebanon war was just a walk in the park compared to what we have in store for you,' Hizbullah leader says in speech Wednesday. Nasrallah also slams Mubarak for refusing to open Rafah crossing
According to the report, as part of its heightened alert measures Hizbullah has transferred its logistical and security headquarters from the Dahiya neighborhood in south Beirut to the southern part of the country. In addition, the group has ordered members of its technical units to return to Lebanon at once.
The source said that despite these measures, the reactions among the Shiite population in Lebanon following Thursday's rocket attack on northern Israel indicated that they do not support a new military campaign against the Jewish state.
Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Dahiya, a Hizbullah stronghold in Beirut that was heavily bombarded by the Israeli Air Force during the Second Lebanon War, is still in ruins. Only 20% of the structures that had been destroyed in the war were rebuilt, and 80% of the neighborhood's displaced residents have yet to return despite Hizbullah's promises, the newspaper added.
Therefore, a Hizbullah attack on Israel may be viewed by its supporters as a reckless move and hurt its popularity in Lebanon. A new war may also affect Iran's status in the country, which is of great importance to Hizbullah.
According to the source, Hizbullah would launch a war against Israel only if Iran decides to enter a regional war of its own. He said that in case fighting does erupt, it is likely to take place mainly in the Bekaa Valley, where most of the Shiite militia's forces are concentrated, and not in south Lebanon, where UNIFIL and Lebanese army forces are deployed.
The Asharq Al-Awsat report claimed that following the Second Lebanon War and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which has restricted the movement of Hizbullah terrorists in the area south of the Litani River, the group began transferring some of its forces and weaponry to the area north of the river and to the Bekaa Valley.

Modeling Terrorist Group Behavior: Hamas & Hezbollah
The Terror Work
In my day job at the University of Maryland’s Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics I work with a team of computer scientists and socials scientists to build models of terrorist group behavior. As the in-house TerrorWonk my role is to “interpret” the results and see if they yield any useful insights. I’ve co-authored papers on both Hezbollah and Hamas ( only the abstract is posted online).
The models use a system called SOMA (Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents) that calculates probabilities of a group acting in a given way in a given situation.
Obviously, we hope that our models can achieve a high level of prediction accuracy. But, regardless they can often reveal facets of an organization’s behavior that were not previously evident. Just as military experts say, “Plans are nothing, planning is everything,” I heard one speaker at a conference say, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
Following are short summaries of the findings.
Hezbollah: The Model Holds
On hearing the news that rockets had been fired from Lebanon into Israel yesterday morning, I was surprised as the single clearest rule about Hezbollah behavior was that they do not like to target Israeli civilians during election years – and Lebanon has parliamentary elections coming up in April. Hezbollah even kept their rocket attacks down for 1998’s local elections. It turns out the model held, Hezbollah quickly distanced itself from the rocket launch and did not reply to Israeli counter-fire.
Extrapolating, this trend indicates how highly Hezbollah values its legal and political standing in Lebanon and its recognition that this standing is damaged when it is held responsible for provoking Israeli strikes. This provides a working explanation as to why Hezbollah had not renewed hostilities with Israel in the past few years – Lebanon’s presidential selection crisis, while not exactly an election, had some similar dynamics.
Beyond some utility for predicting (on an annual basis) when Hezbollah might launch rocket strikes, it provides real insight into Hezbollah and even a possible counter-strategy. While Hamas’ rhetoric remains stridently anti-Israel, the group is pressed by its need to satisfy its domestic constituency, the Lebanese Shia, who are a bit tired of being the Muslim world’s spearhead against Israel.
Military efforts against Hezbollah have not been effective, but these findings raise two related questions: how popular is Hezbollah really among its constituents and could political efforts against Hezbollah be successful at marginalizing them. It is worth noting that Hezbollah receives something like $100 million annually from Iran and the Lebanese Shia population is only about 1.5 million people, so these resources would buy a great deal of influence. Other Lebanese Shia groups do not possess comparable resources.
Hamas: Anything but Resistance is Futile
The results of our Hamas model were very different. Strategic decisions to reduce violence were not in evidence. The key driver appeared to be capability. First, the likelihood of suicide bombings (the data set does not include rocket attacks) increased after Hamas came into contact with Hezbollah in 1993, and received training in suicide terror. The other factor, which increased the likelihood of suicide attacks was Hamas’ provision of social services (which would seem counter-intuitive – but as Matt Levitt shows, the social services infrastructure is also a critical part of the terror network.)
Interestingly, when Hamas was participating in the Palestinian democratic process they were also very likely to carry out suicide attacks on Israel. However, the sample size was relatively small and capability seemed like a likelier explanation.
Perhaps the most interesting finding was that certain attacks, such as kidnappings and property attacks on Palestinians, tracked with internal Palestinian conflict. Although it occurred after the data was collected, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit occurred during the Hamas-Fatah civil war. Another round of Hamas-Fatah fighting is likely in the West Bank, so more of these kinds of actions should be expected.
It could be argued that the 2006 war in Lebanon was a relative success – Hezbollah has kept that border quiet since. The likelihood of a similar modus vivendi with Hamas is Gaza seems less likely based on the model and also based on Hamas rhetoric. In an interview given just days before Hamas began launching rockets the deputy chief of Hamas’ Damascus wing stated:
[Your] question implies that the Tahdiah [truce] is a central issue behind [our] decisions, consultations, and mediation attempts. However, the opposite is true… [for us,] resistance is the main [element] in the relations between the Palestinian people and the Zionist occupation.
Reducing Hamas’ desire to commit violence does not seem possible, it is essential that Israeli strategy reduce their capability. In that regard, cutting the Hamas supply lines of the tunnels between Gaza and Egypt (and attacking the broader smuggling network) is critical.
Posted by Aaron Mannes at 1:43 PM

Will We Be Able to Bring Peace to Gaza this Time?
By Walid Phares
Terror Expert/ FOX News Contributor
January 9th, 2009
It may be too early to discuss both a comprehensive solution for the future of a Palestinian state and to anticipate an end to the global War on Terror at the same time but here goes. In any discussion of peace in the Middle East it’s important to remember the intentions of the Iranian and Syrian regimes and their proxy, Hezbollah when we think about saving the civilian population of Gaza from war, shielding the Israeli populations from rockets and avoiding an escalation of violence that could engulf the entire region. The Iranian and Syrian regimes and their ally Hezbollah will always oppose the peace process and try to sink it.
In this case, the United Nations has a duty to seize Gaza and manage its peace until an internationally recognized and responsible Palestinian state rises again in that province.
So is there a plan to bring peace to the southern shores of the Levant? In an interview with Al Jazeera, Israeli President Shimon Peres said his country will stop military operations when the strikes by Hamas and its allies will come to an end. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said his Palestinian Authority (PA) is ready to assume responsibility for the sake of his people. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah said their governments are ready to solve the crisis in Gaza if the PA is part of it. The United States, the European Union and the United Nations all affirmed that everything has to be done to end the war in Gaza. Excellent.
If all the players listed above are ready to stop the violence, end the war and save Palestinian and Israeli civilians from bloodshed, then the plan seems to be clear: demilitarization and internationalization of Gaza.
Establishing a fully-fledged U.N. sponsored and managed security system in the enclave has precedents across the planet: Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor, and to some extent in Lebanon and possibly in the near future, Darfur.
When an area slips under the control of a militia which is not bound by a peace treaty, or operating under international law, and when a population comes under fire from any party because of the military actions of such a militia, and until a recognizable and recognized sovereign state becomes responsible for such an enclave, the U.N. Security Council must step in and apply Chapter 7 of the charter, that is to bring peace to civilian populations.
In this case, the United Nations has a duty to seize Gaza and manage its peace until an internationally recognized and responsible Palestinian state rises again in that province. How will this be accomplished?
1. The Security Council meets and declares Gaza as an area under U.N. emergency management and vote, under Chapter 7, for a strong multinational force (MNF) to enter the enclave in coordination with Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
2. The MNF should not include forces whose governments are in a state of war with Israel or with the Palestinian Authority and must have diplomatic relations with both, for the purpose of peace building.
3. The MNF proceeds with the disarming of Hamas and all other militias first. Gaza should be demilitarized fully. Israeli forces would withdraw to the lines of demarcation fully.
4. The MNF would reestablish police centers and remit them to a reformed and transparent PA.
5. The MNF would protect the civilian population, in coordination with the PA units.
6. The Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference would provide all needed expenses for the MNF and the PA security forces. A consortium of oil producing governments from the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) would grant Gaza’s U.N. sponsored local administration $10 billion or so to end the economic crisis, fund new schools, hospitals and basic infrastructure.
7. The Arab League would commit to grant Gaza residents visas to visit all Arab countries and work permits if they wish so.
8. Israel commits to allow Gaza workers to travel to the West Bank and vice versa.
9. The final security and economic arrangements would be integrated in the final status negotiations between the PA and Israel.
10. The PA and Israel would resume their direct negotiations for a peace settlement.
This 10-point plan can, first and foremost, bring peace and security to the Palestinian population in Gaza, the Israeli civilians in the surrounding areas, and also engage the responsibility of the United Nations, the European Union, the Arab League and the OIC in peace making.
Evidently, such a plan will never see the light of day as long as any party to the conflict thinks they can only count on a military solution — and particularly as long as Hamas is instructed by Tehran and Damascus to sink the peace process. Sadly as long as democracy is not on the rise in Iran and Syria we cannot predict the end of the War on Terror.
**Dr. Walid Phares is the coordinator of the Trans-Atlantic Legislative Group on Counter-Terrorism based in Washington D.C. and Brussels and the director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies as well as a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy.