LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 04/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 1,29-34. The next day he saw Jesus coming toward him and said, "Behold, the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world. He is the one of whom I said, 'A man is coming after me who ranks ahead of me because he existed before me.' I did not know him, but the reason why I came baptizing with water was that he might be made known to Israel." John testified further, saying, "I saw the Spirit come down like a dove from the sky and remain upon him. I did not know him, but the one who sent me to baptize with water told me, 'On whomever you see the Spirit come down and remain, he is the one who will baptize with the holy Spirit.' Now I have seen and testified that he is the Son of God."

Saint John Chrysostom (c.345-407), priest at Antioch, then Bishop of Constantinople, Doctor of the Church
Homily 18 on Saint John's Gospel/"Behold, the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world"
«Behold the Lamb of God,» John the Baptist says. Jesus himself does not speak; it is John who says it all. It is usual for the bridegroom to act like this; as yet he says nothing to the bride but comes and stands there in silence. Others announce him and present the bride to him. When she appears the bridegroom does not take her himself but receives her from the hands of another. But after he has received her from the other in this way he binds himself to her so strongly that she no longer calls to mind those she left to follow him. This is what took place with regard to Jesus Christ. He came to wed humanity; he himself said nothing, all he did was to come. It was John, the friend of the Bridegroom, who placed into his hand the hand of the Bride - in other words man's heart - convinced by his preaching. Jesus Christ then received them and filled them with such blessings that they returned no more to the one who had led them astray... He drew his Bride from her lowliness to lead her into his Father's house...Only John, the friend of the Bridegroom, was present at this wedding; he it was who carried out everything at that time. Seeing Jesus coming, he said: «Behold the Lamb of God» and thus he showed that, not only with his voice but even more with his eyes, he bore witness to the Bridegroom. He looked on the Son of God and, in beholding him, his heart leapt for happiness and joy. He looked on him present and made known the gift that Jesus came to bring: «Behold the Lamb of God». It is he, he said, who takes away the sin of the world and he does so unceasingly, not just at the time of the Passion when he suffered for our sake. If it is the case that he offers his sacrifice for the sins of the world only once, this single sacrifice cleanses the sins of all mankind once for all until the end of the world.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Dilemnas of Lebanon - Are air strikes enough, or is a .. By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff /.Ha'aretz  03/01/09
For Gaza as for Lebanon, a debate that avoids solutions-By Marc J. Sirois- 03/01/09
Israel has no real strategy to deal with Hamas-By Yossi Alpher 03/01/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 03/09
Top Iran official holds talks with Syria on Gaza violence-Ha'aretz
Bush blames Gaza offensive on Hamas-guardian.co.uk
Washington for Gaza Cease-fire that Bans Hamas Rockets-Naharnet
Israel Slicing Gaza in Preparation for Apparent Incursion-Naharnet
Hizbullah Competes Israel in Lebanon's Elections-Naharnet
Nasrallah Criticizes Arab 'Collaborators' with Israel-Naharnet
Hariri From Paris: Everyone in Lebanon Understands Regional Dangers-Naharnet
Symbolic Demonstrations in Support of Gaza-Naharnet
Hizbullah Wouldn't Rush to Rescue Hamas-Naharnet
Hayek Predicts Tribunal Would Operate, Identity of Hariri's Killer Would be Known in 2009-Naharnet
Saniora: What Goes On In Gaza Should Help Us Unite-Naharnet
Experts: Israel Aims to Cripple Hamas, Warns Hizbullah and Other Foes-Naharnet
Raad: Israel Would Be Surprised by Range of Hamas Rockets-Naharnet
Survey: Lebanon Optimistic About 2009-Naharnet
Experts: Hizbullah-Like Tactic Used by Hamas Against Israel-Naharnet
Bush: Hamas attacks on Israel an 'act of terror'-AP
Sarkozy consults Hariri ahead of regional tour-(AFP)
Arab legislators speak out for Gaza from Tyre meeting-Daily Star
Hariri probe sticks to course, but no word yet on suspects-Daily Star
Statistics show late 2008 surge in Lebanese industrial investment-Daily Star
MEA chief rules out imminent sale of shares due to unfavorable conditions-Daily Star
Protests across Lebanon condemn Israel's Gaza assault-(AFP)
Israel wants to entangle Lebanon in escalating Gaza conflict - Siniora-Daily Star
Group looks to alter media bias on Arab world-Daily Star
Orange-harvesting season kicks off in South-Daily Star

Last terror suspect held on national security certificate to be freed
TORONTO — A Federal Court judge has decided to release the last terrorism suspect being detained on a national security certificate.
Hassan Almrei has been held in custody since October 2001. In a written decision issued today, Justice Richard Mosley says he has concluded that Almrei's continued detention can no longer be justified. Mosley says Almrei should be released under strict conditions until it can be determined whether the security certificate is reasonable and whether he can be removed from Canada to his native Syria or another country. The judge has agreed to conditions of Almrei's release, including restricting his access to any electronic devices that would allow access to the Internet, and allowing the Canada Border Services Agency to enter Almrei's home at any time without notice. Four other non-citizens the government is trying to deport on national security certificates have been released to their families with varying conditions.

Israel Slicing Gaza in Preparation for Apparent Incursion
Naharnet/Israel appears setting the stage for a limited incursion into specific zones of Gaza and not a wide-front invasion of the sector.
The pan-Arab daily al-Hayat said Israeli air raids focused Friday on slicing Gaza by targeting bridges and highways linking the northern and southern flanks of the besieged sector. The Israeli air raids, according to the report, demolished bridges over the Gaza Ravine blocking traffic between the north and the south.
The report predicted a 500-1,000-meter-deep Israeli incursion into Gaza, saying the depth of the offensive "could double in areas that are not densely-populated."
The Israelis are expected to "occupy large areas in northern Gaza" including the towns of Beit Lahya and Beit Hanoun, in addition to the refugee camp of Jabaliya, the largest in the sector, the report added. Israeli forces, it added, would not try to occupy the southern border strip between Gaza and Egypt to avoid being squeezed under Hamas fire. The Israeli air-artillery-naval bombardment of Gaza has claimed 435 lives and wounded 2,285 people, at least 300 of them in critical conditions. Beirut, 03 Jan 09, 09:18

Hizbullah Competes Israel in Lebanon's Elections
Naharnet/Hizbullah on Saturday said the forthcoming elections in Lebanon would be a competition between the resistance and Israel.
The head of Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad, addressing an Ashoura gathering in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, said the 2009 elections "would be an extension of the July (2006) war." "Those who could not overthrow resistance weapons by force, by air force and by shelling have illusions that they are capable of overthrowing them by elections by controlling the majority that would demand disarming the resistance," Raad explained. "You should decide on this. We would not intervene," Raad told voters. "If you want to overthrow the resistance this would happen by refraining from voting." "But if you adhere to the resistance … express this adherence in the voting ballots in the forthcoming elections. It is as simple as that," Raad added. Beirut, 03 Jan 09, 12:19

Nasrallah Criticizes Arab 'Collaborators' with Israel
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said there is no room for a defeat by Hamas in Gaza because of the deep faith of its fighters.
Nasrallah, addressing an Ashoura gathering, said the religious factor has been characterizing resistance activities in the Middle East for nearly two decades "which leaves no room for defeat. A Mujahid (holy fighter) wins by gaining martyrdom and wins by gaining victory." The "Israelis and some Arab leaders collaborating with them are not capable of understanding this concept of belief," Nasrallah said. He accused Arab leaders of failing to convene a summit conference on Gaza and said Arab foreign ministers gave Israel until Monday "to proceed with its military campaign on Gaza." "If the Israelis do not succeed by Monday, they (Arabs) might extend the grace period for the enemy," Nasrallah added. Beirut, 03 Jan 09, 11:36

Hariri From Paris: Everyone in Lebanon Understands Regional Dangers
Naharnet/Head of Future (al-Mustaqbal) parliamentary bloc MP Saad Hariri expressed his fear against any developments in the region, particularly on Lebanon's southern borders. However, he affirmed that political parties in Lebanon are all aware current regional dangers and that no one will take a unilateral decision. Following his meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday in Paris, Hariri said France would exert every effort to achieve a cease-fire n Gaza. He pointed that Sarkozy will be visiting the region in an effort to end the ongoing violence in Gaza. Hariri, reminded reporters at the Elysee Palace of France's pivotal role in fostering stability in Lebanon, in renewing bilateral relations with Syria. Hariri added that France could play a role in the U.N Security Council in ending the Israeli aggression. The parliamentary bloc leader pointed that the Arab League is also exerting strong efforts via the U.N. Security Council to secure a binding resolution that ends the Israeli war on Gaza. He also directed attention to Egypt's role in working with all regional parties in seeking a solution to the crisis. Hariri said that he discussed the issue of the International Tribunal that would try the assassins of ex-premier Rafik Hariri adding that the French president has again reiterated his position in fully supporting the tribunal. Beirut, 02 Jan 09, 15:28

Bush: Hamas attacks on Israel an 'act of terror'
AP 2/1/09 WASHINGTON – President George W. Bush on Friday branded the Hamas rocket attacks on Israel an "act of terror" and outlined his own condition for a cease-fire in Gaza, saying no peace deal would be acceptable without monitoring to halt the flow of smuggled weapons to terrorist groups.
Bush chose his weekly taped radio address to speak for the first time about one of the bloodiest Mideast clashes in decades. It began a week ago. Israeli warplanes have rained bombs on Gaza, targeting the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has traumatized southern Israel with intensifying rocket attacks.
"The United States is leading diplomatic efforts to achieve a meaningful cease-fire that is fully respected," Bush said. "Another one-way cease-fire that leads to rocket attacks on Israel is not acceptable. And promises from Hamas will not suffice — there must be monitoring mechanisms in place to help ensure that smuggling of weapons to terrorist groups in Gaza comes to an end."
The White House released Bush's radio address a day early. It airs on Saturday morning.
Despite Bush's account of a U.S. leadership role, with time running out on his presidency, the administration seemed increasingly ready Friday to let the crisis in Gaza shift to President-elect Barack Obama. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice briefed Bush on developments in Gaza, and she continued furious telephone diplomacy to arrange a truce. Yet, she said she had no plans to make an emergency visit to the region.
More than 400 Palestinians and four Israelis have been killed in the latest offensive. The U.N. estimated Friday that a quarter of the Palestinians killed were civilians. In their waning days in power, Bush and Rice have been working the phones with world allies.
Bush offered no criticism of Israel, depicting the country's air assaults as a response to the attacks on its people. The White House will not comment on whether it views the Israeli response as proportionate or not to the scope of rockets attacks on Israel.
"This recent outburst of violence was instigated by Hamas — a Palestinian terrorist group supported by Iran and Syria that calls for Israel's destruction," Bush said.
The president said Hamas ultimately ended the latest cease-fire on Dec. 19 and "soon unleashed a barrage of rockets and mortars that deliberately targeted innocent Israelis — an act of terror that is opposed by the legitimate leader of the Palestinian people, President (Mahmoud) Abbas."
Hamas-run Gaza has been largely isolated from the rest of the world since the Islamic militants won parliamentary elections in 2006. Then Hamas violently seized control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007, expelling forces loyal to the moderate Abbas.
Bush expressed deep concern about the humanitarian suffering of the Palestinian people in Gaza. U.N. officials say Gaza's 1.5 million residents face an alarming situation under constant Israeli bombardment, with hospitals overcrowded and both fuel and food supplies growing scarce.
"By spending its resources on rocket launchers instead of roads and schools, Hamas has demonstrated that it has no intention of serving the Palestinian people," Bush said. "America has helped by providing tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid, and this week we contributed an additional $85 million through the United Nations. We have consistently called on all in the region to ensure that assistance reaches those in need."
The White House has cautiously said Israel must be mindful of the toll its military strikes will have on civilians. Here, too, Bush blamed Hamas for hiding within the civilian population. "Regrettably, Palestinian civilians have been killed in recent days," he said.
International calls for a cease-fire have been growing. Bush promised to stay engaged with U.S. partners in the Middle East and Europe and keep Obama updated. Obama is receiving the same intelligence reports on Gaza that Bush is.
Rice has spoken to both Obama and his choice for secretary of state, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, about the situation at least once in the last week. Obama and Clinton have remained mum out of deference to Bush, who still has 18 days in office.
There have been growing calls for Rice to intervene with Israel in person amid rising international concern about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza. Her decision to stay away will likely disappoint those calling for a more robust U.S. role, particularly as French President Nicolas Sarkozy intends visit the region next week.
In recent days, U.S. officials had said that a Rice trip to the Middle East, as a first stop on a long-planned visit to China next week, was under consideration. But those officials said Friday that Rice would stay in Washington. They spoke on condition of anonymity because an announcement is not expected before the weekend.
**Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.

 ANALYSIS / Are air strikes enough, or is a ground op needed in Gaza?
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Last update - 13:32 03/01/2009
Two and a half years of a lull, six days of fighting, and we are almost back where we started. The dilemma faced by Israel's decision makers this week is not all that different from the one that hounded them (in some cases it's the same people) throughout most of the Second Lebanon War. To enter or not to enter?
After the two reports published by the Winograd Committee (examining the civilian and military management of the 2006 war in Lebanon), and after a methodical, lengthy round of learning the lessons, the start of the campaign in Gaza seemed to show that the pre-flight checklist, so to speak, had been completed in full. The preparations were conducted in an orderly fashion. The Israel Defense Forces prepared for Operation Cast Lead for almost two years. The security cabinet, once it stopped accusing the army of not truly preparing itself, took its role seriously and held comprehensive discussions about available options. The integration of accurate intelligence, exacting strikes and tactical surprise produced a lethal opening air strike.
But those who sought to apply the lessons of Winograd in their entirety appear to have overlooked a few critical elements, and those lacunae are liable to have an effect on the final result. Prof. Yehezkel Dror, the Winograd panel's organizational expert, may yet have to summon the security cabinet to rehash the material.
This week it became apparent once again that the personal element ("What will people say about me at the end of the war?" "How can I play up my part at the expense of my rival in the government/General Staff?") plays a tremendous role in the behavior of the decision makers and sometimes affects the decisions themselves; that the political competition raging in the midst of an election campaign will also influence developments; and that a military operation on this scale necessitates a preplanned and clear-cut exit strategy at the diplomatic level. All of these limitations also affect the Israeli handling of the dilemma at hand, which at the time of writing looks like it will be decided faster than the treading-of-water seen over 34 days of fighting in Lebanon.
Shake off the dust
The dilemma, in a nutshell, is this: Is the heavy pounding from the air enough, or will Hamas simply rise out of the ruins later, shake off the dust and declare, as Hezbollah did in 2006, that it succeeded in surviving against the army that purports to be the strongest in the Middle East? And if ground forces enter, will they inflict on Hamas sufficient damage to force the organization to moderate its demands in cease-fire talks, or will the operation get bog ged down, slide into mass killing of Palestinian civilians, cost the IDF dearly in casualties and erode the internal consensus in Israel?
The impression at this writing on Thursday is that Israel is going to launch a ground offensive quite soon. The decision will ostensibly be based on two cardinal reasons: the fact that the diplomatic initiatives are still incomplete (that's what happens when no one is in a hurry to prepare the ground for them), and the realization that without the movement of infantry and armored forces on Gazan soil, the Arabs will again be able to tell themselves that the Israelis are avoiding confrontation and making do with dropping one-ton bombs from 30,000 feet up. That, it is argued, is liable to lead to a disastrous outcome for Israel, particularly after the previous failure in Lebanon. After all, it was the chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, who said a few months after his appointment that in the event of another war, his aim would be to ensure that "next time, at the end of the war, no will have to ask who won."
Don't dare fail
In the past few days, Israel received almost identical signals from several moderate Arab states, formulated in language very different from the public condemnations they have issued recently: Go in if you must, but don't dare fail, they said. Another missed opportunity in the face of the Iranian emissaries in the region will be untenable.
Still, mainly for fear of an entanglement ending in heavy casualties, the IDF appears to be bent on a major land incursion, albeit a limited one. That also suits the character of the chief of staff. The satirical television program "A Wonderful Country" portrays him as a gung-ho inarticulate macho (and his refusal to give interviews doesn't allow him to rebut that image). But in reality, say colleagues and subordinates, Ashkenazi's most prominent trait, along with personal toughness and broad professional knowledge, is extraordinary caution in fielding troops. On the assumption that a ground operation is imminent, it is likely that he will want to fashion it in his spirit: large forces, little time. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, the key person in the decision-making process that led to the launching of the war, takes a similar view.
The IDF is now looking for another surprise move in a narrow, complex theater, about 40 kilometers long and less than 15 kilometers wide. The major difficulty in the first stage will lie in breaching the heavily mined and booby-trapped zone Hamas has created, from the "perimeter" (a strip of a few hundred meters on the Palestinian side of the security fence) to areas west of that zone. The army is concerned about an attempt by Hamas to reprise the success Hezbollah had, first, in blowing up a Merkava tank that entered Lebanon on what turned out to be the first day of the war in 2006, in pursuit of the abductors of the two reserve soldiers, and then in destroying more tanks with antitank missiles.
This defensive strip is passable, of course, but if a ground offensive is launched, crossing it is liable to entail casualties. Beyond that looms Gaza City, narrow and appallingly overcrowded. During Israel's absence, the city grew mainly upward, in a manner that will hamper the movement of a ground attacker. The IDF's great advantage, even during a ground operation, is in the air, where it has full control, with no serious threat posed to its craft. Air support for the ground forces, however, will be at very close quarters, approaching safety limits, as was also the case in Lebanon.
Random conversations on Wednesday with officers on the Gaza border turned up a complex picture. The soldiers in the spearhead units want the operation very much (which is the way of combat troops, and rightly so). A company commander talked about the need "for the people on top to decide already, because we can't wait here forever." Battalion commanders were more cautious, aware of the difficulties the operation will involve. Easy and simple it won't be.
Determination or insensitivity?
Quite astonishingly, given all that the country underwent under Ehud Olmert's leadership in the last war, the prime minister sounds like he is barely wrestling with these dilemmas. It's hard to believe, but the man who was to have been kicked out of office following the interim Winograd report and then resigned (tardily) last summer is now leading the country into a second Israeli-initiated war - and is meanwhile enjoying public support. In Lebanon, Olmert objected to the use of ground forces almost until the last minute, and was finally dragged into the move against his will, under the pressure of the defense minister, Amir Peretz, and the chief of staff, Dan Halutz. This time Olmert seems to be less hesitant. It is to be hoped that this is due to determination and not insensitivity.
On Tuesday Olmert visited Southern Command headquarters. To the senior officers who met with him he sounded determined but not gung-ho. Some of them, who were highly critical of his performance in the Lebanon conflict, were favorably impressed this time. Most of those present spoke in favor of continuing the operation, including a ground offensive. If you want to consolidate what we have achieved, you must not stop now, the officers told the prime minister. Olmert listened attentively. The officers believed he was with them. Not exactly a leader, given his peculiar political situation, but someone who is capable of continuing to conduct a complex operation. Still, these favorable impressions could be dashed if it turns out that the decision to attack on the ground was mistaken, and produces large numbers of casualties.
The euphoria that marked the onset of the fighting in Lebanon in 2006 was not in evidence this week, but the prime minister, as is his wont on dramatic occasions like these, felt constrained to resort to a tone of light pathos. I salute you for the way you conducted the preparations for the operation, Olmert told GOC Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yoav Gallant. And he saluted him.
That was a satisfying moment for Gallant. He was appointed to the post more than three years ago, immediately after the Gaza pullout, and since then has been fighting mostly with his hands tied. After the pullout, Israel adopted a policy of shutting its eyes completely to the ongoing firing of Qassams. Nor was much done to scuttle Hamas' more ambitious plans. Gilad Shalit was abducted in the period when the IDF was prohibited from crossing the border and operating even in the part of the Strip closest to Israel. Most of the combat means were operated from the Kirya Defense Ministry and General Staff compound in Tel Aviv - to the point where Gallant was sometimes surprised to discover from the media that Israel had assassinated a wanted individual in Gaza. Throughout this period Gallant consistently urged expansion of the fight against Hamas. Hardly anyone paid attention. His critics claimed that the general, a graduate of Ariel Sharon's bureau (he was the prime minister's military secretary), was simply preparing a defense for the next commission of inquiry.
This week it emerged that Gallant made good use of the time. The opening move was prepared in the course of two years, in which the "bank of targets" was put together meticulously with the aid of the commander of the air force, Maj. Gen. Ido Nehoshtan, and his predecessor, Eliezer Shkedy. The former commander of the Gaza Division, Brig. Gen. Moshe Tamir (and his intelligence officer, Lt. Col. T.), made an important contribution, not least by developing the "hot point" method: There was systematic identification of the places from which rockets were launched, an understanding that these were permanent dugouts that Hamas built, and simultaneous attacks on them last Saturday. Most of the dugouts - the Gaza version of the Hezbollah "nature reserves" - were destroyed.
This week there was some tension between the General Staff and Southern Command over who was running the war. The answer is that the air force is the leading contractor, Southern Command is managing the combat and the chief of staff holds the reins with regard to the sensitive issues. At the moment there is only a skirmish over who gets the credit, but Lebanon showed that it can turn pretty ugly.
'Our values'
On Wednesday afternoon, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni visited a community center in Sderot. The foreign media waited patiently for the press conference she was to hold there. Barely two minutes after Livni's arrival, a "Color Red" alert was sounded, but the hall in which the meeting took place is considered secure and the alarm was greeted with some indifference.
Livni didn't miss a single cliche, offering each of the points on the "message sheet" she has drawn up, with which she appeared on foreign TV stations during the week. "Hamas is a terrorist organization that is harming the life of the residents of Gaza and the life of the Israelis," "Hamas is an extremist organization" - and so forth. The foreign correspondents, who had been driving all over the south for a few days, fought to stay awake. Only one item drew their interest: IDF officers and Shin Bet security service personnel phoned 9,000 homes in Gaza to warn occupants to leave, because the homes were located close to Hamas command posts or to its arms caches, which might be bombed. "Even though this is an advance warning to Hamas," Livni said. "We did it because these are our values."
She continued to ignore the urgent issue at that time - the French proposal for a 48-hour truce - until the question period began. Citing Israeli media, a CBS correspondent claimed that Israel was tending to accept the French offer. "Oh, really?" Livni said in response. She stated only that she would make her opinion known behind closed doors.
The French proposal was in the meantime stricken from the agenda during a tense meeting of the Olmert-Livni-Barak kitchen cabinet on Tuesday evening. Olmert and Livni saw no great benefit in agreeing to an immediate cease-fire, even a limited one. Their fear was that Hamas would quickly exploit the time to reorganize and claim it had won the war. Its major condition was and remains the opening of the crossings for goods to enter the Gaza Strip. If they were not opened within 48 hours, Hamas would start firing rockets again.
In the eyes of Hamas, an IDF ground operation, however great the risk, might present a certain advantage. Hamas has prepared itself for such an offensive over a lengthy period, under the close instruction of Iran and Hezbollah, and believes it has the capability to harass the Israeli troops and inflict heavy losses on them. According to the Hamas scenario, it would be possible to force Israel to beat a quick retreat, under the pressure of the losses and of the international community.
In conversations with her staff, however, Livni raised a different idea: a return to the cease-fire situation without an agreement. This would not involve a tahadiyeh with Hamas or an enhanced truce, but an explicit threat by Israel (this time with the intention of realizing it) to respond actively every time it is attacked. The assumption is that with a deterrent balance of some 400 Palestinians killed, Gaza will hesitate before bringing another Israeli attack on itself. The disadvantage of this proposal is the difficulty in persuading Hamas to accept it. Even at the price of more casualties, it appears as though Hamas would at this time prefer to fighting rather than agree to an arrangement which will be construed, from its point of view, as an admission of failure.
Ready in the rear
Be'er Sheva this week absorbed its first rocket attack. So did Ashdod, Kiryat Malakhi and Gedera. It might not be pleasant to admit, but Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu and MK Yuval Steinitz were right, and twice: The IDF withdrawal from Gaza led to the firing of missiles into the heart of Israel, just as the evacuation of the IDF from the West Bank cities in the Oslo accords facilitated (until the Shin Bet got its act together and the separation fence was built) the entry of Palestinian suicide bombers into Israel.
Hamas exploited the recent six month cease-fire not only to deepen its control of Gaza and build fortifications but also, more specifically, to smuggle in long-range Katyusha rockets, which considerably increased the number of Israelis vulnerable to them. Only a small strip, between Hadera and Gedera, did not suffer missile fire, though Hezbollah is today capable of firing missiles into Metropolitan Tel Aviv, in the event of another confrontation.
The main reason that Israel has not fallen into the black funk that marked the Second Lebanon War is the small number of casualties this time. For the present, it appears as though Hamas has only a limited ability to inflict damage on the home front. Hezbollah apparently had 14,000 rockets at the start of the war in Lebanon. Hamas, by a rough estimate, has 3,000, at least 80 percent of them Qassams, whose accuracy is not great and which usually cause little damage. This is still a bothersome and psychologically scary state of affairs, but it is not one that poses a threat capable of breaking Israel's spirit, if the political and military echelons continue to manage the campaign properly.
The home front appears to be the place where most of the lessons of Lebanon were learned. The intensive exercises conducted under the leadership of Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai are producing their first fruit. The local governments in the south are well prepared. Even those mayors of the big towns who were elected only two months ago - in Be'er Sheva, Ashdod and Ashkelon - managed to take part in a first exercise before the escalation. On Tuesday at midnight, when the Be'er Sheva Municipality was trying to decide whether to cancel classes the next day, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, GOC Home Front Command, stopped the discussion and declared schools would be closed. The next morning, a Katyusha rocket slammed into a high school in the city.
Home Front Command personnel are everywhere and busy undertaking missions to aid the population, as though their role consisted of nothing more than rescuing people heroically from rubble. At the moment, in the face of the limited threat from Hamas, that is enough.