LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 13/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 13,44-46. The kingdom of heaven is like a treasure buried in a field, which a person finds and hides again, and out of joy goes and sells all that he has and buys that field. Again, the kingdom of heaven is like a merchant searching for fine pearls. When he finds a pearl of great price, he goes and sells all that he has and buys it.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Syria prepares for a Lebanese vacation.By Michael Young 12/03/09
Why Syria and Saudi Arabia are talking again-By Nicholas Blanford/Christian Science Monitor 12/09/09
World Agenda: why Syria key to US hopes of unlocking Middle East-Times Online 12/03/09
Confusion of March 8 alliance/Future News 12/03/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 12/09
Lebanese Army Frees 5 People, including Soldier, from Captivity-Naharnet
Jumblat from Bkirki: Relaxed Atmosphere Prevails over Lebanon-Naharnet
Geagea: Lebanon Must Choose between 'Destructive Course' and 'Effective State'-Naharnet
Hearing Postponed again in LF-L.B.C.I Lawsuit-Naharnet
Shehayeb Uncovers Presence of Offices in Syria to Serve Election Interests-Naharnet
Sarkozy: No One Can Obstruct Special Tribunal for Lebanon-Naharne
Baabda Meeting Likely Key to Resolve Pending Disputes, Including State Budget-Naharnet
Aoun Vows to Resist Judicial 'Marginalization'-Naharnet
1 Killed, 4 Wounded in Bab al-Tebbaneh Clash, Ensuing Police Raid-Naharnet
Iran can't be trusted-National Post
Cause for optimism in the Middle East-Telegraph.co.uk
Syria-bound Iran arms violated sanctions: UN panel-AFP
Stage Set For A Collision-The Jewish Week
Hamas wants to choose premier, majority of seats in unity cabinet-Daily Star
Withdrawal of Obama's top intel pick marks victory for pro-Israel lobby-By Inter Press Service
Former Saddam aide Tarek Aziz gets 15-year term in prison-(AFP)
Arab leaders hail 'new period' after Riyadh summit-(AFP)
Does sexually degrading music compel teens to play out script?-(AFP)
Freeman's post-withdrawal statement-Daily Star
Peace protesters express anger over Northern Ireland killings-(AFP)
Alabama gunman kills 10 during murder rampage-(AFP)
France set to rejoin NATO's military command - Sarkozy-(AFP)
Lebanon's top three leaders broker deal on state budget-Daily Star
Saudi-Syrian thaw in ties 'benefits' Lebanon-Daily Star
Hizbullah must 'recognize Israel, halt violence' prior to US talks-Daily Star
Lebanon to launch tender to expand Beirut Port-Daily Star
Non-life premiums in Lebanon post 22.4 percent rise to $591 million-Daily Star
ICT-sector growth remains far 'below the potential' in Lebanese market-Daily Star
Seniors at ACS launch new radio station-Daily Star
AUB journal debates notion of 'clash of civilizations-Daily Star
Justice campaigners say US urged Lebanon not to join International Criminal Court-Daily Star

Confusion of March 8 alliance
Date: March 12th, 2009 Source: Future News
The embarrassment that the alliance of March 8 feels in valuing the next legislative elections is translated in the rhetoric used in its political speeches. Thus, the stream of contradictory declarations, that soon qualifies the democratic deadline as "fateful", and renounce soon to qualify it of such, is a sign of confusion the champions of "Thank you Syria" is battling.
Agreement and disagreement are not in particular the appendage of any group. Some call for "a massive involvement” to win this decisive battle, and the other speaks of an "association" with a vague definition, without even evoking its nature. Others expose their “tones” on the tribunes without having anything to offer to the Lebanese, neither of political nor of social contents.
Thus, the champions of "Thank you Syria" gang are anxious to maintain their politics in vagueness, because they consider that the Lebanese are incapable to decide their own fate outside of a Syrian or Iranian tutelage. They avoid evoking their political and electoral difference therefore, for fear to see the collapse of their popularity. In fact, no judicious being can align to a political group based on the insults, the accusations of treason and the battles on Don Quichotte style.
But as for the alliance of March 14, the reality is all different, because this alliance proposes a global vision, so much political, economic and social. Its main worry is the civil peace, the edification of the economy, and the preservation of blood and the dignity of the Lebanese against the adventures that propagate them on the roads and confined them in shelters.  In this sense, the independence forces enter into the electoral battle on the basis of a referendum translating the will of the Lebanese to maintain the “Neutrality of Lebanon” from the regional axes, in application of the resolution 1701 that aims to warn the country so much that the citizens of the south from the Israeli savagery. "To Neutralize" Lebanon is not marginalize it evidently. This country is far from being marginal in the political domain. It is impossible for the country of the Cedars to be marginal, because it is an integral part of the Arab world, and the interests of these brother countries are his.
"To Neutralize" Lebanon means to stop the attempts of transforming it into a launching pad for rockets and involve it in the quarrels of axes and nations. "To Neutralize" Lebanon means to reinforce its internal unity and transform it into an active and dynamic precarious and chilly civil peace.
"To Neutralize" means to reserve the exclusive rights of the weapons finally in the hands of the Lebanese state, for fear to see the different Lebanese cultural groups turning into menacing militias.

Suleiman’s wisdom
Date: March 12th, 2009 Source: Private
President of the republic General Michel Sleiman continued his efforts on the path of consensus and tried to appease the concerns of the Lebanese by saying the International Tribunal would not be politicized “as it is a difficult thing to do” but he asserted at the same time that the Memorandum of understanding between the Lebanese government and the tribunal “would not explode the situation between the domestic parties, as the ministerial committee was given enough time to study the MO and propose a solution that would be accepted by all and do not jeopardize the tribunal”.
Sleiman on the other hand, reaffirmed his position regarding the Judiciary formations and praised the work done by the higher judiciary Council, considering the formations “another step on the path of affirming the independence of the judiciary” in an indirect criticism to the voices that criticized the formations and namely from the March 8 forces.
Meeting
In this regard, Sleiman managed to hold a meeting with the Speaker of the House Nabih Berry and the Prime Minister Fouad Siniora at Baabda palace, which crowns the efforts of Sleiman to ease the tension between the two presidents created by General Budget law and the Council of the South issue.
Kidnapping
But in a security development, Voice of Lebanon said that Rachid Ghossain, a corporal in the Lebanese army was kidnapped at the early hours of yesterday morning from his apartment in Tabarja along with another man of Al Lahib family, by gunmen members of Hezbollah, who promised through his security department to release the kidnapped in the afternoon.
This incident raises the questions regarding of the presence of the arms and a security apparatus within the state and its security services, particularly after the contacts made with Hezbollah that later denied any involvement in the incident.
Electoral lists
In the meantime, the general secretariat of March 14 forces said after its meeting that the alliance will announce on Saturday during the general conference to be held at Biel center downtown Beirut a declaration entitled “June 7th: date of transit to the state”.
For his part, MP Marwan Hamade confirmed that the process of forming the electoral lists of March 14 is “in the last phases” pointing to some “make ups” on some of the lists “which is normal in the democratic competition within the same political gathering”.

Iran can't be trusted
National Post
Published: Thursday, March 12, 2009
When even the United Nations is prepared to scold a thuggish Third World regime, you know that government must have done something terribly wrong (or at least something so obvious that the New York-based international debating society can't possibly make excuses for it). On Tuesday, the UN Security Council sanctions-monitoring committee rebuked Iran for trying to smuggle a vast shipload of arms to Syria in violation of at least five UN resolutions. The discovery of over 3,000 cases of high explosives, large-bore armour-piercing shells and anti-tank propellant proves Iran has no intention of ceasing its arms shipments to terror groups such as Hezbollah, using Syria as a conduit. Nor can it be trusted to honour its international agreements to forgo acquiring nuclear arms.
In late-January, a U. S. Navy vessel stopped the M/V Monchegorsk in the Red Sea. The Cypriotregistered cargo ship, leased by an Iranian government shipping company, was forced to put into port in Cyprus, where government inspectors quickly found the weapons cache. The weapons' declared destination was Syria, but the speculation is that the arms were meant to be transhipped to Hezbollah in South Lebanon or perhaps even Hamas in Gaza.
This is not, of course, the first time Iran has been caught red-handed smuggling powerful weapons to terror groups it funds and trains. In January, 2002, a Palestinian ship, the Karine A, was caught by the Israelis in the Red Sea crammed full of Iranian-and Russianmade weapons. Many of the munitions used by Iraq's insurgents over the past seven years have been stamped "Made in Iran" and several times since the end of the Hezbollah-Israel war in the summer of 2006, convoys carrying Iranian weapons have been spotted resupplying the terrorists overland from Syria.
All of this violates a string of Security Council and General Assembly resolutions going back to 2004 and before. Five years ago, the UN unanimously adopted a resolution upholding the independence and territorial integrity of Lebanon. In particular, Resolution 1559 called for the disarmament and dismantling of private militias such as Hezbollah. Iran ignored the edict, as did Syria.
Indeed, the two continue to meddle in Lebanese internal politics so as to keep that nation open as a staging area for terror attacks on Israel. And they do so despite the presence of 15,000 UN peacekeepers in Lebanon.
By some estimates, Iran has rearmed Hezbollah with more than two million rounds of ammunition and thousands of mortars and rockets since the UN brokered an end to the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel conflict, a deal that forbad Iran from re-equipping the Shiite radicals. All this establishes not only why Iran cannot be trusted (and why the U. S. and other Western nations must closely monitor and constrain Iran's actions), but also why Israel is right to counteract threats to its security from places such as Gaza.  The Jewish state's neighbours, starting with Iran, have no interest in playing nice.

Sison: Hizbullah Still on Terrorist List
Naharnet/U.S. Ambassador Michele Sison said Wednesday that Washington has not changed its position on Hizbullah, stressing that the Shiite group remained on the list of terrorist organizations. "Hizbullah continues to be on the terrorist list," Sison said during a chat with reporters. "There is no difference between Hizbullah's military wind and its political wing," she stressed.  Hizbullah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel. Asked whether the U.S. Administration will cooperate with the Hizbullah-led opposition if it wins upcoming parliamentary elections, Sison said: "We don't make decisions based on a crystal ball." Sison stressed that the Lebanese are the ones who approve election results. She said Washington supports "moderate voices" and stressed U.S. backing for those "who stand against violence." Beirut, 11 Mar 09, 20:13

Washington: Hizbullah's Recognition of Israel a Condition for Dialogue
Naharnet/The United States has made it clear that Hizbullah must renounce violence and recognize Israel before it can expect even low-level U.S. engagement.
"Hizbullah is acting as a state within a state," the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat quoted a U.S. official as saying. He said Hizbullah held celebrations on the occasion of commander Imad Mughniyeh's assassination anniversary in Beirut's southern suburbs while for years the Shiite party denied any link to Mughniyeh. He said U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman met with Deputy Head of the Supreme Shiite Council Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan in Beirut last week in order to make clear to him that President Barack Obama was committed to Lebanon's sovereignty and independence. The official told al-Hayat that the mission of U.S. special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell includes achieving comprehensive peace on all tracks: Israeli-Palestinian, Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli.
Asked if the U.S. would change its policy if Hizbullah and Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement became the majority in parliament, the official said the government that will be formed after the elections should stress commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 so that the current partnership between the international community and Lebanon continues. The U.S. official lauded President Michel Suleiman's efforts "to come up with a strategy that protects the country from the consequences of having two separate visions."The U.S. is concerned about efforts to cripple the government, he said, wondering how Syria's supporters in Lebanon claim that a national unity cabinet is the only choice after the elections. "Had they wanted the perfect government for Lebanon, they would have stopped crippling it," the official said. Meanwhile, the White House said Tuesday that both Hamas and Hizbullah must renounce violence and recognize Israel before they can expect dialogue with the U.S. The comments came after U.S. ally Britain confirmed last week that it had authorized low-level contact with the political wing of Hizbullah, to stress the urgency of disbanding militias. "The president has stated on a number of occasions that, in order for anything like that to happen, there are certain responsibilities that those individual organizations have," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said. Those requirements include recognizing the right of Israel to exist and renouncing "terrorist activities," he said, also referring to the Islamist Palestinian group Hamas which rules the Gaza Strip. "There are activities and responsibilities that have to be undertaken by those organizations well before this administration can render a judgment," Gibbs said. The State Department said last week that the United States was not ready to follow Britain's move.Britain has had no official talks with Hizbullah since 2005, and last July added its military wing to a blacklist of designated terror groups.(Naharnet-AFP) Beirut, 11 Mar 09, 07:40

1 Killed, 4 Wounded in Bab al-Tebbaneh Clash, Ensuing Police Raid
Naharnet/One person was killed in ensuing police raids after a clash between two families in Bab al-Tebbaneh neighborhood in northern Lebanon late Wednesday left four people wounded. Local media said the fight between Awad and Miflih families quickly developed into a shootout resulting in casualties on both sides.
They were taken to nearby hospitals. Security forces cordoned off the area and carried out house raids in search for the suspects. Beirut, 11 Mar 09, 22:45

Sarkozy: No One Can Obstruct Special Tribunal for Lebanon
Naharnet/French President Nicolas Sarkozy stressed that France rejects politicizing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, adding that no one can obstruct the court's procedures. The tribunal "is a major step for justice in Lebanon and a big victory for Lebanese democracy … I hope those who committed these crimes would be arrested and those who ordered them would be tried," Sarkozy told Nahar Ash-Shabab on Thursday, a weekly supplement to An Nahar.
The international tribunal which was launched in The Hague on March 1 will try the suspected assassins of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri and related crimes.
"It's a matter of principle -- the principle of impunity," the French president stressed. "Four years ago, France gave its full support for the investigative commission. It will continue (with its support) for the Special Tribunal. The issue is related to a process that no one can obstruct."
Asked if France would make compromises with Syria at Lebanon's expense, Sarkozy said: "Let's make things clear. France will always stand by the Lebanese people to help them defend their freedom, sovereignty and independence."
He said President Michel Suleiman's visit to Paris next week will be an opportunity to "celebrate our friendship and deep relationship that brings our countries together."
Sarkozy will also stress to Suleiman France's "full support for the Lebanese government," the French president told his interviewer.
About the June 7 parliamentary elections, Sarkozy said: "The legislative elections will be a new step forward. That's why it is very important that the polls are held in a transparent way." Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 10:21

Baabda Meeting Likely Key to Resolve Pending Disputes, Including State Budget
Naharnet/A tripartite meeting at Baabda Palace between the country's top three leaders could be the key to resolve major disputes, including approving the 2009 state budget. President Michel Suleiman was finally able to bring together Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in a bid to mend the relationship that has deteriorated over the Council for the South budget – still the key obstacle in the path of approving the 2009 state budget.
While the meeting shrouded in secrecy, local media described as "positive" the late Wednesday reunion between Saniora and Berri under President Michel Suleiman.
The tripartite meeting included a working dinner, Beirut media reported. They said outcome of the overnight meeting will be discussed during a Cabinet session expected later Thursday. Rivalry between the two men has recently taken on a personal tone, particularly since Berri has held on to his demand for allocating LL 60 billion to the Council for the South, a request rejected by Saniora. Ministerial sources have said that the issue revolved around "who would break the word of the other" and not around the budget. Suleiman has been trying to mediate an end to the standoff which erupted Jan. 30 after Lebanese leaders failed to agree on funds for the Council for the South. He set a 10-day deadline for the leaders to resolve the budget crisis, but the ultimatum passed without an agreement. Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 08:27

Aoun Vows to Resist Judicial 'Marginalization'
Naharnet/Head of the Change and Reform bloc Michel Aoun vowed to "strongly resist" the recent judiciary reshuffling saying it was an example of political "marginalization" against his Free Patriotic Movement. "We reject and will strongly resist… our marginalization," Aoun told As-Safir newspaper.
He added that the judiciary appointments had been political and carried out with "vengeful and marginalizing conduct." The FPM leader reiterated that the Higher Judicial Council should be an independent body characterized by competence and impartiality. He also added that any future judiciary appointments should be conducted through an internal voting process, outside of the political realm. Aoun had previously accused Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar of making the new appointments with political interests in mind. Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 09:11

Health Reform Plan to Be Tackled by Cabinet
Naharnet/Cabinet is expected to meet later Thursday to discuss several issues, including a proposal to issue national health cards aimed at strengthening the social status of Lebanese citizens. Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalife told the daily As Safir that he would recommend that Cabinet approves the heath card, allowing health insurance to more than half of the Lebanese people. Other recommendations by Khalife include broadening the scope of the Social Security system and producing a draft law in cooperation with Labor Minister Mohammed Fneish. This will provide a gateway to any social group that wishes to join the Social Security and benefit from its services, Khalife explained.  He said the health plan is the first of its kind since the independence era. Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 09:32

Tashnag to Announce Electoral Alliances Soon
Naharnet/The Armenian party Tashnag will reportedly be announcing its electoral alliances in the coming days.
The pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat reported on Thursday that the entire political landscape is awaiting the decision of Tashnag.
Tashnag, led by Hovig Mekhitarian, continues to meet with representatives from both majority and minority parties but has yet to ally with one side or the other. For their part, all political parties are trying to court this much coveted political group. Both March 8 and March 14 have designated their Catholic, Maronite, and Orthodox candidates in Beirut's first electoral district, but Armenian representatives have thus far withheld any endorsements, deferring their decisions until Tashnag makes its announcement. Likewise, a Hizbullah official told Al-Hayat that in Beirut's second electoral district one of the Armenian representatives would be affiliated with Tashnag which could potentially quell Mustaqbal influence if the party sided with March 8. Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 10:53

6 ISF Officers Participate in Leadership Seminar in Texas
Naharnet/Six Brigadier Generals from the Internal Security Forces participated last month in an Executive Leadership Seminar at the Center for American and International Law's Institute for Law Enforcement Administration in Texas, the U.S. embassy said in a press release on Wednesday.
It said the Feb. 9-20 seminar was part of the ongoing partnership between the ISF and the U.S. government.
"The Institute for Law Enforcement Administration is one of the United States premier learning centers for law enforcement executives, managers and supervisors, preparing course participants for today's challenging management and ethical issues," the embassy said.
"The U.S. embassy and the ISF worked with the Institute for Law Enforcement Administration to tailor a customized curriculum to incorporate the unique requirements of the ISF as Lebanon's national police and law enforcement agency," the press release said.
The Brigadier Generals got the opportunity to complement the training they received by observing U.S. police Emergency Operations Centers and Dispatch Centers as well as operational methods at the Dallas, Plano and McKinley Police Departments.
A visit to the Texas Collin County Fusion Center showed how a state-of-the-art data sharing and analysis system can bring together information from a wide variety of sources in order to detect and display relationships between people, places and events to uncover potential threats and investigate unsolved crimes.
The embassy said that head of the ISF Judicial Police Bureau Brigadier General Anwar Yehya followed up his participation in the seminar with two days of meetings in Washington with officials in the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Drug Enforcement Administration, and the Department of State to discuss ongoing investigative programs and new training opportunities for ISF officers. Beirut, 12 Mar 09, 08:15

The Cedars Revolution
9th of March 2009
The Cedars Revolution support prosecuting Omar Bashir in Darfur's Genocide and calls on Lebanon's Politicians to do the same
The World Council for the Cedars Revolution (WCCR) supports the International Criminal Court in its warrant for the arrest of the head of the Sudan regime Omar al Bashir for his responsibility in the Darfur and Southern Sudan Genocides. The WCCR, representing the aspirations of millions of Lebanese around the world believe that International Law which will provide justice in the Haririr murder should also provide justice in the murder of 250,000 Black Africans in Darfur.
The WCCR reject the attempts by other regimes in the region to delay the prosecution of al Bashir and calls on the democracy forces in the Arab world and the Middle East to stand by the International Court on Darfur and on Lebanon. We cannot claim justice for the Lebanese under the Hariri Tribunal and deny it to civilians slaughtered by a regime ally to the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
The Cedars Revolution cannot stand with the fascist regime of Khartoum and opposed to the people of Sudan and Darfur. The WCCR calls on all Lebanese politicians who claim supporting the Cedars Revolution and the March 14 uprising to stand by the International Court and demand the prosecution of General Bashir, while the Haririr Tribunal is preparing for the prosecution of the Terrorists who murdered the former Prime Minister and many other politicians in Lebanon. If anything the Lebanese politicians and political parties opposed to the Syrian occupation and Terrorism should be the first ones to acclaim the decision to prosecute the architect of Genocide in Darfur.
The WCCR congratulates Prosecutor Ocambo for his courrage.
 

Syria prepares for a Lebanese vacation
By Michael Young
Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 12, 2009
You have to wonder if, during their talks last week in Damascus, the acting US assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, and the Syrian foreign minister, Walid Moallem, mentioned Hawaii. Why Hawaii? Because in April 2007, at another meeting in Damascus, this one between the Syrian president, Bashar Assad, and the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, Moallem accused the United States and France of playing a "destructive" role in Lebanon. He said he wanted Feltman (who was then the US ambassador in Beirut) out of the country, and he offered to pay for a vacation in Hawaii.
That meeting was more sinister for being the venue in which Assad threatened to destabilize Lebanon if the Hariri tribunal were passed under Chapter VII authority by the UN. The president told Ban that Lebanon's "most peaceful years were when Syrian forces were present. From 1976 to 2005 Lebanon was stable, whereas now there is great instability." The exchange was later leaked to the French daily Le Monde, perhaps because Assad's reaction to the tribunal made rather less convincing his assurances that Syria was innocent in Rafik Hariri's assassination.
When the Syrian regime offers vacations, they usually are the kind that one doesn't come back from. However, Feltman, in his final days as ambassador to Lebanon, also earned a goodbye present from Syria and its local allies. In January 2008, a US Embassy vehicle was damaged in a bomb attack that killed three people, on the same day that the ambassador was to hold a going-away reception at the Phoenicia Hotel.
In politics, such pages are made to be turned. However, the decision of the Obama administration to start a dialogue with the Assad regime by sending Feltman to Syria, along with Daniel Shapiro of the National Security Council, seems neither a page turned nor one unturned - at least not yet. If anyone must deal with Syria on Washington's behalf, then Feltman is the man, and it must have irritated the Syrians to no end that his being handed their portfolio probably means he will officially be confirmed in the assistant secretary post. Feltman is cynical, or the operative word these days is "realistic", about Syria, and he really is persuaded that turning Lebanon into a Syrian meal is not the way to move ahead with Assad. However, with the containment of Iran now the name of the game in the Arab world, Syria sees new possibilities looming ahead.
It wasn't surprising, in that case, to hear what Assad had to say to the Al-Khaleej newspaper several days ago. The president is unable to utter a phrase on Lebanon without decorating it with words of intimidation, and this was no exception. He echoed, sort of, what he had told Ban two years ago, namely that if the Hariri tribunal were politicized, "Lebanon would be the first to pay the price." When Assad uses the word "politicized," he means that the tribunal should not accuse Syrians - a promise he hopes to elicit from the US in exchange for a better relationship. And if the Americans don't go along with this, then the Lebanese may feel the rod.
However, Arab containment of Iran adds a dimension to the current diplomacy that didn't exist a few years ago. Yesterday, Assad was received in Riyadh by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, and there he was "reconciled" with Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak. The Syrians still very much view an improvement of ties with the Arab states and the West as a chance to reimpose their writ in Lebanon. They understand that it is more difficult to drive their tanks into Beirut than it used to be (though they haven't lost hope), but Assad is looking for a mechanism allowing him to dominate Lebanon from across the border, through which his local allies, notably Hizbullah, can be called upon to maintain order when needed.
There are two variables here, though, that the Syrians will need to consider. The first is that the Saudis, and now the Egyptians, in exchange for patching things up with Syria, will demand that Assad take a clearer position with regard to Iran, as well as to Hizbullah and Hamas. The Syrian intention, however, is to maintain thorough ambiguity on this front. Assad has no desire to distance himself from Tehran, because that would mean surrendering a very good reason for why everyone is talking to Syria. On the other hand, if he simply does nothing, that may jeopardize Syria's normalization process with the Saudis and Egyptians, which risks marginalizing Syrian regional influence down the road.
One way out of this dilemma for Assad may be a second variable, which he will have to be careful in manipulating: a reshaping of the nature of Syria's connection with Hizbullah. There should be no illusions about what this means. The Syrians will not disarm Hizbullah, nor are they capable of doing so; and they see no advantages whatsoever in a decisive break with the party. After all, Hizbullah plays the role of Syrian enforcer in Lebanon. But where the Syrians very probably do want to adjust things is in forcing Hizbullah once again to take on Syria's agenda as its priority, just as it was in the days when Syrian soldiers were still deployed in Lebanon. Since their withdrawal in April 2005, with Hizbullah having gained wider latitude to act on the ground and Syria more dependent than ever on the party to defend its Lebanese stakes, it has become increasingly apparent that Iran is the one primarily calling Hizbullah's shots.
This bothers Assad, but it also provides him with an opportunity. If containment of Iran is everyone's chief concern, the Arab states' and the Obama administration's above all, then any Syrian effort to raise the heat on Hizbullah could serve three simultaneous purposes: it could force the party to embrace Syrian interests more heartily; it could bring Syria plaudits from all those states delighted to see an Iranian surrogate put under pressure; and it could permit Assad to reimpose a measure of the hegemony over Lebanon that he lost in 2005. The end result would be a compromise. As Syrian power in Lebanon increases, Iran, and with it Hizbullah, would have no choice but to bend to Assad's conditions, as that would at least guarantee Hizbullah's political and military survival.
However, are things likely to be as clear-cut? Would Hizbullah go along so quietly, and would Iran sign off on this? Would the United States and the Arabs be so easily gulled? And would the Lebanese agree, years after managing to get out from under Syria's thumb? The Syrians sometimes presume too much of their capacities, imagining that a bomb can substitute for a vacation. They might remember that a particularly large bomb on February 14, 2005, is what ended their long Lebanese interregnum.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR
 

Why Syria and Saudi Arabia are talking again
It's about Iran, Iraq, and Israel. The two foes planned to meet in Riyadh Wednesday to solidify Arab unity amid regional volatility.
By Nicholas Blanford | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the March 12, 2009 edition
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Saudi Arabia's steps to end its bitter dispute with Syria appear to be aimed at unifying Arabs against a trio of growing concerns: Iran's spreading influence in the region, the uncertainties of a US drawdown in Iraq, and the prospect of a right-wing government in Israel.
Saudi outreach follows Washington's tentative reengagement with Damascus, a move that diplomats hope will have more success in weaning Syria away from its Iranian ally than the Bush administration's policy of isolation.
"The Saudis want to get Syria away from Iran," says Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Washington's style is to try engagement as well, so the Arabs are trying their best to get Syria on board."
After a month of shuttle diplomacy, Saudi King Abdullah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah will meet for a fence-mending summit in Riyadh Wednesday.
The rift between Syria and Saudi Arabia followed the assassination in 2005 of Rafik Hariri, a Lebanese former prime minister who was close to the kingdom's ruling family. The Syrian regime remains a leading suspect in the assassination, although it denies involvement.
The Bush administration, angered by Syrian meddling in Iraq and support for anti-Israel groups such as Hamas, imposed sanctions and froze ties with Damascus in 2005. In response, Syria strengthened its relationship with Iran and sat out President Bush's final term.
The result: an Arab world split between Western-backed Sunni states (Saudi Arabia and Egypt) and allies of Shiite Iran (Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Palestinian Hamas).
Relations between Egypt and Syria have also been cold, the result of tension between Cairo and Tehran. In December, Mr. Mubarak reportedly criticized Iran's expanding influence, saying: "The Persians are trying to swallow up the Arab states."
Arab fears of Iranian expansionism were compounded by recent unrest by Shiites in the Gulf. In December and January, Shiites rioted in Bahrain following the arrest of several Shiites on terrorism charges. In January, Saudi Shiites launched rare demonstrations after an altercation between police and Shiite worshippers in Medina.
The unrest does not appear to have been stirred by Iran, but does serve to warn Bahrain and Saudi Arabia that marginalized Shiites could provide an opening for Iranian penetration.
However, a return to traditional diplomacy by the Obama administration appears to have encouraged Saudi Arabia to bridge the rift with Syria. At an economic summit in Kuwait in January, King Abdullah invited the Syrian and Egyptian leaders to a lunch at his private residence. That ice-breaker was followed by reciprocal visits by the Saudi and Syrian foreign ministers that paved the way for the Riyadh summit.
"I do think that one of the reasons Saudi Arabia wanted to patch up with Damascus is that it realized that there was no sense in pursuing a policy that had repeatedly failed since 2006, being on bad terms with Damascus," says Sami Moubayed, a Syrian political analyst.
Even Egypt appears to have swallowed its anger at Syria, recognizing that Damascus has influence over the Palestinian unity talks under way in Cairo.
"Egypt knows very well that for the Cairo dialogue to succeed it will need the goodwill of Syria," says Ousama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.
Last week, Jeffrey Feltman, acting US assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs, and Daniel Shapiro, a National Security Council official, met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem in Damascus, the first visit to Syria by senior US officials in four years. Mr. Feltman described the meeting as "constructive," suggesting it could pave the way for further talks.
Whether the overtures will lure Syria from Iran's orbit remains to be seen. Syria has employed a fence-straddling strategy to deflect international pressure. It held indirect talks with Israel last year and helped broker an end to the political impasse in Lebanon, yet it continues to support Hamas and Hezbollah and has tightened military cooperation with Iran.
"Syria is exploiting the [international] paranoia over Iran very cleverly," says a Western diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Syria broke off the indirect negotiations with Israel in response to the Gaza war. But Mr. Assad has said he is willing to resume talks even with a right-wing Likud party-led government.
Reuters reported Wednesday that a Likud politician met Syrian diplomats in the US "and felt encouraged about peace prospects."
But Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who is expected to be Israel's next prime minister, has indicated he would prefer to concentrate on the Palestinian track.
Still, if the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement bears fruit, it could signal an easing of tensions in Lebanon before June polls – elections in which neither the Saudi and Western-backed parliamentary majority nor the Syrian-supported opposition are assured of victory.
"Elections in Lebanon are always decided by 11th hour deals [between rival factions] and if the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement continues it will impact positively on any 11th hour coalitions that are made," says Bassel Salloukh, assistant professor of politics at the Lebanese American University.
Syrian-Saudi reconciliation also could facilitate a stable transition in Iraq when the US withdraw troops. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran will be vying to exert greater influence there. "Someone has to fill that vacuum," says Mr. Moubayed. "Saudi Arabia has an ambition and so does Iran. Syria stands in the middle."

World Agenda: why Syria key to US hopes of unlocking Middle East
James Hider, Middle East Correspondent
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/world_agenda/article5888353.ece
When Barack Obama visits Turkey next month, he will be reaching out to the Muslim world and trying to heal the deep wounds left by his predecessor. Turkey, a secular Muslim state and Nato member with good ties with both Israel and Iran, is a perfect launch pad for the new administration’s plans to reshape the politics of the region.
While Iran has so far given a frosty response to Mr Obama’s overtures for engagement, its main ally Syria has embraced the new US initiative far more enthusiastically.
Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, who last week visited Turkey as part of a regional tour to show Washington’s resolve in tackling some of the Middle East’s longstanding crises, told Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, that mediating talks between Israel and Syria would be a top priority. Ankara has been brokering indirect talks with Israel and Syria for more than a year, and is seen as one of the most neutral diplomatic conduits in the region.
Her renewed efforts, which included sending top aides to meet Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s youthful President, last weekend, appear to be bearing fruit already. Mr al-Assad said this week that he was ready for direct talks with Israel if the United States were prepared to act as mediator.
"We need the United States to act as an arbitrator when we move from the current indirect negotiations to direct negotiations [with Israel]," he said, marking a potential step toward renewed ties with the West after years of isolation and encirclement.
America and its allies in the region, from Israel to Saudi Arabia, hope to bring Syria in from the cold by luring it away from Iran’s sphere of influence. Syria acts as a middle-man between the Tehran regime and the Arab militias of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Breaking that link would isolate Iran even more and bring pressure on its armed satellites, both of which have fought wars with Israel in the past two and a half years.
To that end, Saudia Arabia’s King Abdullah met yesterday with Mr al-Assad in Riyadh, marking an abrupt thaw in frosty ties. Saudi Arabia is worried about Iran’s growing hegemony in the region, especially after the disastrous US war in Iraq, and is leading efforts to bring Syria back to the Arab fold.
The Saudi monarch will also be hosting a mini-summit with Mr al-Assad and Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian President, before an Arab summit in Qatar at the end of this month.
Renewed ties with the Arab world would be a major boost to Syria, whose economy has shrunk due to its international isolation and sharply declining oil production. Its long-delayed stock exchange was opened yesterday, a sign that it is trying to open up and diversify its economy.
Israel is also expected to be amenable to renewing talks with Syria, if only as a means for the new rightwing Government being formed by Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu to take pressure off the stalled peace talks with the Palestinians, whose main factions Hamas and Fatah are in a de facto Cold War.
A key sticking point in any Israel-Syria talks will be Damascus’s demands for the return of the Golan Heights, the strategic upland border that Israel captured in the 1967 war. However, progress was made on the issue in the last round of talks in 2000, and Israel officials have talked about creating a neutral zone around the plateau, or a Hong Kong-style long-term lease.