LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS
BULLETIN
November 04/08
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to
Saint Luke 14,12-14. Then he said to the host who invited him, "When you hold a
lunch or a dinner, do not invite your friends or your brothers or your relatives
or your wealthy neighbors, in case they may invite you back and you have
repayment. Rather, when you hold a banquet, invite the poor, the crippled, the
lame, the blind; blessed indeed will you be because of their inability to repay
you. For you will be repaid at the resurrection of the righteous."
Saint Augustine (354-430), Bishop of Hippo (North
Africa) and Doctor of the Church Discourse on Psalm 121
"You will be repaid at the resurrection of the righteous."
Love has great power; it is our strength. If we have no love then nothing else
is of any use to us. «If I speak in human and angelic tongues,» the apostle Paul
says: «but do not have love, I am a resounding gong or a clashing cymbal» (1Cor
13,1). And then listen to this tremendous statement: «If I give away everything
I own, and if I hand my body over to be burnt, but do not have love, I am
nothing» (v.3). Even if love is all you have, even if you cannot give to the
poor, love. Were you to give no more than a cup of cold water (Mt 10,42), it
would be worth the same reward as Zacchaeus had, having distributed half his
possessions (Lk 19,8). How is this? One gives but little, the other much and do
their gestures have the same value? Indeed yes – their wherewithal is unequal
but their love is equal...The Psalmist says: «We will go into the house of the
Lord» (Ps 122[121],4). It is up to us to see whether we are going there. Not our
feet but our hearts are what take us there. See whether we are on the way; let
each one ask himself: What are you doing for the poor believer, for the brother
who is homeless or the beggar who holds out his hand? Check whether your heart
is closed... «Pray for the peace of Jerusalem» (v.6). What does the peace of
Jerusalem consist in? «Prosperity for those who love you» (Vulg). The psalmist
addresses Jerusalem: «Those who love you will prosper» – prosperity after
deprivation. Wretchedness here below, prosperity above; weakness here, strength
there; those who are poor here are rich there. And where do their riches come
from? From the fact that here they gave away the possessions they had received
for a time from God they will receive there what God gives them for all
eternity. My brethren, here below the rich are those who are poor; it is good
that the rich man discovers his own poverty. Does he think himself satisfied?
This is to be puffed up, not full. Let him recognise his own emptiness so as to
be capable of satisfaction. What does he have? Gold. What does he still lack?
Eternal life. Let him take good note of what he has and recognise what he lacks.
Brothers, let him give away what he possesses so as to receive what he has not.
Free Opinions,
Releases, letters & Special Reports
Hizbullah and the
‘spies’.By: Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynet 03/11/08
Report: Syrian Officials Approved
U.S.-led Raid Near Iraq Border-By:
Fox News 03/11/08
Duplicity in Damascus. By David
Schenker 03/11/08
Iran: No to War and No to
Isolation-By:
Huda Al Husseini
03/11/08
Once
America votes, Lebanon needs its own leaders to lead.By
Marc J. Sirois 03/11/08
A simple
formula to keep Lebanon's elections on the straight and narrow.
The Daily Star 03/11/08
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for November
03/08
US Coordinates with UN in Lebanon-Naharnet
Hamas leader in Beirut on rare visit-The
Associated Press
American school in Syria obeys order to close-The
Associated Press
Obama gaining ground among Jews,
with 70% in favor-Jerusalem Post
Syria talks meant to pressure Iran-Jerusalem
Post
Mossad Spy Surveyed Kfar Sousa
Ahead of Mughniyeh Murder, Report-Naharnet
Muallem Invited Aoun to Damascus During
Suleiman's Election-Naharnet
Issue of Expanding the
Dialogue Remains, Armenians Call for Rotations-Naharnet
Hizbullah Slams Israeli
Plans to Build Museum on Jerusalem Graves-Naharnet
Syrian Troops Entrenched
Off Lebanon's Eastern Borders-Naharnet
Kouchner Backs Syria's
Rapprochement with Lebanon-Naharnet
Hizbullah: Bush Horrified
by Results of U.S. Raid on Syria-Naharnet
Baroud Invited to Damascus-Naharnet
Hariri: 'Understandings' still in reach despite looming elections-Daily
Star
Hizbullah slams Israel's plan to build museum on Muslim graves-(AFP)
Members of Israeli spy ring 'related to 9/11 hijacker'-Daily
Star
Battered
Bint Jbeil has no shortage of Obama supporters-(AFP)
Lebanon cracks down on jammers, repeaters-Daily
Star
Beirut to halt flour subsidies by mid-November-Daily
Star
Tabourian says Egyptian gas will start arriving early next year-Daily
Star
Wassouf
busted on drug charges in Sweden-(AFP)
Report: Syrian
Officials Approved U.S.-led Raid Near Iraq Border
Sunday, November 02, 2008
BAGHDAD — Despite reports that Syria denounced a violent U.S. Special Operations
raid that took place near the Iraq border last week, intelligence officials in
Damascus may have approved the attack, the London Times reports. The operation,
which was intended to be fast and bloodless, was meant to target Al Qaeda
commander Badran Turki Hashim al-Mazidih — also known as Abu Ghadiya — an
Iraqi-born terrorist in his late twenties, according to the paper.
Syrian officials — who feared Ghadiya as a threat to the secular regime in
Damascus — plotted to have U.S. forces kidnap him and take him to Iraq for
questioning. But the U.S.-led raid did not go as planned. A fierce gun battle
broke out following the launch of a rocket-proplled grenade from a local
American compound, blowing the cover on the covert operation. Eight people were
reportedly killed in the raid, which Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem
called an act of "criminal and terrorist aggression."Officials could not confirm
whether Abu Ghadiya was among the dead.
Hizbullah and the
‘spies’
By: Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynet
It seems that Hizbullah exposed ‘Israeli spies’ for deterrence purposes
Published: 11.02.08, 11:44 /
Israel Opinion
It is difficult to gauge the credibility of the Lebanese army’s announcement
regarding the “two Israeli spies” it exposed. The Israeli government and
intelligence community, with the exception of a few anomalies, do not tend to
confirm or deny this kind of information, irrespective of whether it is
completely false or accurate. This policy is in effect not only vis-à-vis
Lebanon, but also in relation to any other country – including states that
maintain diplomatic ties with Israel.
Spy Games
Report: Lebanon uncovers espionage ring working for Israel / Roee Nahmias
A-Safir: Man arrested on suspicion of employing network of agents working with
Israeli intelligence to map out sensitive locations in Lebanon, Syria –
including Damascus neighborhood in which Hizbullah leader Mugniyah was killed
The reason for this is simple: Any kind of response on our part merely serves to
assist enemy states and their internal security and counter-espionage
apparatuses. We should keep in mind that these apparatuses, even when they make
public statements regarding an uncovered spy ring, are feeling in the dark in
most cases. They know that in a significant part of the cases the “confessions”
they got out of suspects are not the truth, but rather, were only aimed at
placating the interrogators and ending the torture. These apparatuses are very
interested in finding out the truth and gathering evidence that would make it
easier to secure convictions at court.
On the other hand, Israel’s intelligence community, like its global
counterparts, has no interest in providing information that would enable its
rivals to make their efforts more efficient, and in cases where real spies have
been captured, to find out who their true masters are. It should be noted that
in the spy world field agents and spies themselves are often unaware of their
true masters and real objectives. Those who dispatch agents to gather
information make sure to conceal their own identity.
Lebanon is an espionage hub that is of interest to almost all global
intelligence agencies, including Arab and Muslim countries. You can never know
who sent the spy, whether he is even a spy, and for what purpose. The exceptions
where the State of Israel breaks its silence are humanitarian cases where it’s
completely clear that the captured “spy” is an innocent civilian detained only
because he is Israeli or has some kind of connection to Israel. One such case
happened in Lebanon a year ago, with the Beirut arrest of Daniel Sharon, who
held an Israeli passport and whose family resides in Israel. He entered Lebanon
on a German passport and was detained in the framework of a probe into the
murder of a Lebanese policeman. At the time, Israel officially announced that
Sharon has no connection to its government arms. Ultimately, the German
government intervened and he was released.
Hizbullah is nervous
However, one thing can be ascertained in the wake of the Lebanese army’s
announcement regarding the spies: It is completely clear that Hizbullah is
nervous. The destruction of the group’s long-range rockets by the Israeli Air
Force within 39 minutes in the Second Lebanon War, the raid in Baalbek, and
other operations made it clear to Hizbullah’s leadership, headed by the
Iranians, that the organization has been infiltrated by Israel’s intelligence
community.
Immediately after the war, Nasrallah ordered a thorough investigation. The
probe, which was undertaken with the assistance of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards, revealed severe flaws in Hizbullah’s information security. Many people
were dismissed and Hizbullah, with Iranian assistance, reorganized its
information security systems.
We can assume, with almost complete certainty, that Hizbullah’s internal
security apparatus, rather than the Lebanese army, “exposed the spies.” The
Lebanese army is the official body in charge of internal security affairs, and
Hizbullah handed over to it the handling of the matter as not to appear to be
setting up a state within a state.
The fact that the statement referred to people who operated in the Beqaa Valley
area, Hizbullah’s stronghold, indicates that the Shiite group is behind the
revelation. Hizbullah has an interest in issuing the announcement in order to
deter potential collaborators and showcase achievements. Presenting Israel as
the master of the “spies” merely serves these objectives. In any case, close
examination of the details provided by the Lebanese army raises serious doubts
as to whether the suspects are indeed spies, and the motives for committing the
acts attributed to them.
Muallem Invited Aoun to Damascus During Suleiman's Election
Naharnet/Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem has said he
invited Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun to Damascus during the
election of the Lebanese president last May. Meanwhile, official sources told An
Nahar daily that a delegation, probably Syrian, would visit Baabda Palace at
8:30am Monday. The sources refused to give further details. Muallem told ANB TV
in an interview Sunday night that Syria cannot tolerate those who have committed
crimes but Aoun "is among the prominent leaders in Lebanon and I told him he is
welcome to Damascus whenever he likes."
"I relayed President Bashar Assad's invitation to him (Aoun) when I accidentally
met him in parliament's hallways during the election of President Michel
Suleiman" on May 25, Muallem said. About the deployment of Syrian troops on
Lebanon's border, Muallem said: "Controlling the border benefits both
countries."
He said not more than 700 soldiers from the border guards were deployed on the
Lebanese frontier.
Muallem warned that his country would adopt more "painful" measures if the U.S.
does not give an explanation of its raid on a Syrian village near the Iraqi
border last Sunday. The Syrian government has already ordered the closure of a
U.S. school and an American cultural center.
There has been no formal acknowledgment of the raid from the United States. But
U.S. officials have said the target was Badran Turki al-Mazidih, a top al-Qaida
in Iraq figure who operated a network of smuggling fighters across the border.
The Iraqi national also goes by the name Abu Ghadiyah.
Syria says, however, that eight civilians were killed during the cross-border
helicopter strike by American special forces. Beirut, 03 Nov 08, 05:15
Mossad Spy Surveyed Kfar Sousa Ahead of Mughniyeh Murder,
Report
Naharnet/The Mossad spy network leader arrested by Lebanese
authorities has reportedly surveyed the Kfar Sousa neighborhood in Damascus a
few months before Hizbullah Commander Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated by a car
bomb last February. The daily As-Safir, which carried the report on Monday,
identified the spy leader as Ali Jarrah. It said the other suspect arrested was
his brother, Youssef. As-Safir said investigation with Ali Jarrah revealed that
the Israeli Mossad secret agency had tasked him with surveying the Damascus
neighborhood of Kfar Sousa a few months before Mughniyeh's killing.
It said a question mark is raised in this regard: Did Jarrah know why the survey
was conducted? Or was he ordered to just monitor the area? And did he play a
role in the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah? The Lebanese army on
Saturday said it has arrested two people in the Bekaa Valley linked to an
Israeli espionage network. A senior Palestinian official in the Bekaa told As
Safir that Ali Jarrah has, since he quit Fatah-Uprising and joined Ahmed
Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command,
obtained a special military pass that allowed him to enter the Syrian-Lebanese
border without being searched.
This pass was automatically renewed for many years up to his recent arrest. The
Palestinian source added that Jarrah moved freely in Damascus and frequently
visited the homes of Palestinian officials and Palestinian centers. During the
July 2006 Hizbullah-Israeli war, Jarrah was seen with a video camera moving at
some sensitive areas that included relief centers known to be connected to
parties supporting Hizbullah, As Safir reported.
"Was he pinpointing security targets at the Bekaa?" the daily wondered. The
investigation is attempting to uncover whether the video camera fixed inside his
four-wheel drive was satellite-connected to Israel, as was his ever working GPS
system in his vehicle.
As-Safir wondered whether the arrest of this network will ultimately lead to
uncovering other networks in the country. Meanwhile, security sources connected
to the investigation told the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat that the investigation is
confidential. The sources stressed that the suspect has confessed to working for
the Mossad, that he has monitored certain political party centers and the
movements of certain party leaders for Israel.
They said that Jarrah, who is in his fifties, was earlier arrested in Damascus
by elements of Syrian State Security, a branch of Syrian Intelligence and
charged with being a member of the Fatah-Intifada, or Uprising, a group headed
by Abu Moussa.
In Syria, Jarrah was questioned for days concerning his relationship to Abu
Khaled al-Emleh, who was earlier fired by Abu-Moussa following escape of Fatah
al-Islam leader Shaker Abssi who is wanted in Lebanon for his role in the 2007
fighting at the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp.
Emleh was accused then of helping Abssi in facilitating his control over some of
the Fatah-Intifada centers at the camp. Emleh was put under house arrest.
Sources added that a high-level political figure from the Bekaa intervened with
the Syrians to release Jarrah who was charged by the Syrians of having links to
Emleh since 20 years. Jarrah was subject to intensive interrogation by Syrian
authorities in Damascus that went beyond his connection to Emleh to include his
said connection to tens of Fatah-Intifada members. They said that Syrian
authorities later released him.
Jarrah later returned to his hometown of al-Marj in the western Bekaa and
continued with his normal life up to his disappearance a month ago while on his
way from the Bekaa to Beirut. Sources in his hometown refused to comment on news
that a certain political party had placed Jarrah under their intense watch and
later arrested him under suspicion of spying for Israel. Meanwhile, Jarrah's
family sought the help of Lebanese police to locate him. Sources following the
investigation revealed that the political party that had arrested Jarrah soon
delivered him to Lebanese Army Intelligence. Residents of al-Marj stated that an
army unit last Oct. 25 raided his home, confiscated his four wheel drive vehicle
and arrested his brother. Residents said that the army also searched his uncle's
home without taking any further action. Beirut, 03 Nov 08, 09:13
Issue of Expanding the Dialogue Remains, Armenians Call for
Rotations
Naharnet/Contacts for ending the issue of expanding the list of
participants at the national dialogue have failed to provide a solution prior to
the scheduled meeting next Wednesday. The daily An-Nahar on Monday did not rule
out the possibility that President Michel Suleiman and Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri would possibly review and amend their ideas prior to Wednesday in an
attempt to bridge the views of the majority and the minority.
An-Nahar said that Berri is adopting the position of the minority in expanding
the number of participants while holding onto a solution based on mutual
consensus.
The daily stated that MP Saad Hariri moved on Sunday to visit Berri in an effort
to maintaining political calm, while holding to the position of March 14 in
rejecting the minority's proposal. An-Nahar said that Hariri paid a similar
visit to Suleiman. Both meetings focused on the upcoming national dialogue,
according to An-Nahar. The paper said Hariri also held talks with Defense
Minister Elias Murr for the same purpose. The daily al-Mustaqbal on Monday said
the issue of the Armenian community's representation at the national dialogue is
up for discussion again, based on the principle of rotation among the
representing parties.
Meanwhile, Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem affirmed the
party's strong backing to dialogue expansion saying, "this is a serious demand,
we are not maneuvering, this is for the benefit of making the national dialogue
a success." "The additions made to the dialogue participants would be from both
camps," he added. Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arsalan said "the national
dialogue table is not complete, especially under the atmosphere of ongoing
reconciliations." He pointed that the opposition is waiting for a clear response
from the president concerning this issue. Beirut, 03 Nov 08, 12:00
Kouchner Backs Syria's Rapprochement with Lebanon
Naharnet/French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Paris and
Riyadh share the same goal in Lebanon, which is supporting its independence,
sovereignty and stability. France and Saudi Arabia also agree that Syria should
have a "positive stand" in Lebanon, Kouchner told the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat.
He said the international community would be closely following the parliamentary
elections scheduled for 2009. Kouchner said the European Union is ready to "help
in setting the stage for the elections." The EU also is prepared to send
observers to monitor the elections if "the Lebanese authorities are interested
in this," he added.
Kouchner said he intends to visit Saudi Arabia. He told the daily that Syria
should be "encouraged to persist with its policy" of opening up to the world.
"I do that without being naïve or having illusions," Kouchner stressed. "It
appears to me that what Syria did towards Lebanon and its crackdown on armed
groups that seek to destabilize Iraq … show that this track could be promising,"
Kouchner added. Beirut, 02 Nov 08, 16:37
Hizbullah: Bush Horrified by Results of U.S. Raid on Syria
Naharnet/Hizbullah on Sunday said U.S. President George Bush's
administration and its "followers" in the region have been "horrified" by
results of the U.S. "aggression" on Syria. Hizbullah's official in south Lebanon
Sheik Nabil Qaouq made the claim in an address at a Hizbullah-sponsored rally in
the southern port city of Tyre. He was referring to the recent U.S. raid on a
target in Syria, which resulted in the killing of at least eight people. No
casualties were reported in the U.S. force. Qaouq said escalating reconnaissance
missions by Israeli jetfighters over Lebanon are an attempt to "compensate for
the repeated failures of the U.S.-Israeli agenda in the region." He said the
U.S. raid has "bolstered Syria's status." Beirut, 02 Nov 08, 16:14
Baroud Invited to Damascus
Naharnet/Syrian Interior Minister Bassam Abdul Majid has invited
his Lebanese counterpart Ziad Baroud to visit Syria. The daily An-Nahar said
Premier Fouad Saniora's cabinet is to consider the invitation during its meeting
on Monday. The report said Baroud's agenda to the Damascus talks would include
reactivating the "joint security committees and issues related to the Internal
Security Forces and the General Security Directorate." Beirut, 02 Nov 08, 15:21
Barak: Syria Smuggling More Weapons to Hizbullah
Naharnet/Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday urged the
cabinet to take a decision regarding Syria's alleged involvement in smuggling
weapons to Hizbullah in Lebanon. Barak told Israel Radio: "I repeat, Syria is
turning over lots of weapons to Hizbullah. Israel should take decisions if some
of these weapon shipments pose a threat to the fragile balance of powers." Barak
did not disclose further details regarding nature of the Syrian arm shipments to
Hizbullah. Beirut, 02 Nov 08, 14:18
Hariri: 'Understandings' still in reach despite
looming elections
By Hussein Abdallah
Daily Star staff
Monday, November 03, 2008
BEIRUT: Future Movement leader Saad Hariri said on Sunday that the competition
between his March 14 coalition and the March 8 grouping in next year's
parliamentary elections would not eliminate the possibility of "political
understandings" between the two camps. "The ongoing reconciliations do not mean
that either of us is willing to abandon our allies in the elections, but the
differences between the two alliances should not prevent political
understandings," he told reporters after meeting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
at the latter's residence in Beirut. "At any rate, political differences should
not develop into street clashes," he added.
Hariri said that his recent meeting with Hizbullah's leader, Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah, had paved the way for achieving stability and decreasing tensions.
"Political dialogue is always necessary to protect the country's unity,
security, stability, and economic growth," he said.
The Future leader added that he discussed with Berri measures to be taken in
order to progress with national dialogue and further defuse tensions.
Hariri also stressed that he was against including more participants in the
national dialogue's second session, scheduled for Wednesday at the Presidential
Palace.
"I do not see the reason behind adding more participants ... We are left with
only one item to be discussed and both the parliamentary majority and opposition
are already represented," he said. "The current participants are the same
politicians who signed the Doha Accord last May ... We need to commit to the
agreement in that sense ... We cannot be selective when it comes to implementing
what we agreed on in Doha."
The Doha calls for national talks with the aim of reaching an agreement on a
national defense strategy. Hizbullah's arsenal was at the core of discussions at
the first session, held under President Michel Sleiman's auspices in
mid-September.
Hariri also met Prime Minister Fouad Siniora later Sunday.
For his part, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir told reporters upon his
return from the Vatican on Sunday that the issue of broadening the dialogue was
to be decided by Sleiman and the participants. "I never said that I support
adding more participants ... This issue is to be decided by the president and
the concerned parties ... I am in favor of any move that serves national
interests," he said.
Sfeir was greeted at Rafik Hariri International Airport by Interior Minister
Ziyad Baroud, who also confirmed to reporters that he had received an invitation
to visit Damascus. He said he would visit the Syrian capital in the "coming few
weeks" to discuss bilateral issues.
Hizbullah's second in command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said Sunday that the
opposition was serious in its demand to add more participants.
"We are not maneuvering when we say that we want to add more participants to the
dialogue," he said.
Hizbullah's Druze ally, Youth and Sports Minister Talal Arslan, also said Sunday
that more parties should be present at the talks.
Arslan, who wants to attend the dialogue, added that the decision was Sleiman's.
Sleiman ended a visit to Rome and the Vatican on Saturday and is due to head a
Cabinet session on Monday before chairing the dialogue's second session on
Wednesday.
The president met Siniora after his return to discuss the latest local
developments as well as the results of his visits to Italy and the Vatican.
Siniora also briefed the president on the outcome of his recent talks in Kuwait
and Egypt. Siniora told reporters on his way out of Baabda Palace that adding
more participants to the dialogue would be discussed among the participants.
"We will hopefully reach an agreement in this regard, but the results of the
discussions would not necessarily be directly revealed," he said.
In a separate development on Sunday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak hosted
former Prime Minister Salim Hoss in Cairo to discuss bilateral relations and the
situation in the wider Middle East. A statement issued by Hoss' office in Beirut
said that the former premier had thanked Mubarak for "supporting Lebanon and its
people during difficult periods."Hoss also said he hoped Egypt would succeed in
its efforts to "purify relations among Arab states."
Mubarak has also met recently with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid
Jumblatt, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, and former Prime Minister Omar
Karami.Siniora was scheduled to be Mubarak's guest last week, but the Egyptian
president apologized for not being able to meet the Lebanese premier as he was
not feeling well upon his return from a trip to Paris
Hizbullah slams Israel's plan to build museum on Muslim
graves
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Monday, November 03, 2008
BEIRUT: Hizbullah lashed out at Israel on Sunday for allowing the construction
of a so-called "Museum of Tolerance" on the site of a Muslim cemetery in
Occupied Jerusalem. In a statement released to the media, the party issued "its
strongest condemnation for the desecration of a historic Islamic cemetery in
Occupied Jerusalem permitted by the [Israeli] enemy by allowing an American
company to build a museum on the site."
Hizbullah also called for Arab, Muslim and international action to put an end to
the "racist and inhumane" practices pursued by the Israeli government.
"They cannot transform the original identity of the sacred city from its
original Palestinian identity," the statement added.
The Israeli High Court on Wednesday rejected appeals by two Muslim organizations
which complained that the museum would be built over part of an ancient Muslim
cemetery. The mufti of Occupied Jerusalem, Sheikh Mohammad Hussein, has called
the court ruling a "grave decision" which "harms the Muslim holy sites." He
stressed it was difficult to believe that the project's promoters would want to
build a Museum of Tolerance "whose construction constitutes an act of
aggression."
The Nazi-hunting Simon Wiesenthal Center is the main promoter of the museum,
designed by renowned American architect Frank Gehry. "Moderation and tolerance
have prevailed," said Rabbin Marvin Hier, the dean of the center, following the
verdict. - AFP
Members of Israeli spy ring 'related to 9/11 hijacker'
'Lebanon is an open theater for espionage'
By Andrew Wander /Daily Star staff
Monday, November 03, 2008
BEIRUT: Two men arrested for running an Israeli spy ring in the Bekaa Valley are
relatives of a suicide hijacker who piloted a plane in the September 11, 2001,
attacks, a security source told The Daily Star on Sunday. The Lebanese Army
announced on Saturday that it had arrested two people suspected of involvement
with a spy network that gathered information for Israel's intelligence services.
The army said that the men had been arrested on Friday, but the source said that
they were actually captured two weeks ago and the discovery of the arrests by
the media prompted the army to announce their capture. The army said the men had
admitted "gathering information on political party offices and monitoring the
movements of party figures for the enemy." The statement added that the men had
been found with "communications devices and other sophisticated equipment,"
which they used to gather information and transmit it to Mossad agents.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the source said the men are relatives of
Ziad Jarrah, the Lebanese who helped commandeer United Airlines Flight 93 before
it crashed into a Pennsylvania field on September 11, 2001, killing everyone on
board. Jarrah's family is from the town of Al-Marej in the Bekaa Valley, where
the arrests took place. The Jarrah family have repeatedly denied that Ziad was
part of the September 11 plot, claiming he was instead a innocent passenger on
the plane, but an official investigation concluded that he was a senior member
of the hijacking team who had undergone flight training in order to carry out
the attacks. Residents of Al-Marej told As-Safir newspaper that the men were
arrested when security forces raided a home in the town and seized equipment
from a car. The newspaper said investigators had found documents which prove
that the men had been in contact with Israeli intelligence agents. Investigators
said that the men had passed information about the location of Lebanese and
Syrian army outposts to the Israelis.
One of the two men arrested, identified only by his initials "A.D.J.," is
believed to have been the head of the spy ring. Security sources told The Daily
Star that the man was a member of the Palestinian militant group Fatah al-Intifadah,
which is known to be active along the Syrian border.
The other man who was arrested is said to be a relative of "A.D.J." and was
allegedly involved in conducting reconnaissance work for Mossad in the Bekaa
Valley.
Investigators said that the spy ring had been active in the area since the late
1980s.
Retired General Elias Hanna told The Daily Star that Lebanon provided the
perfect environment for spies to operate. "Lebanon is an open theater for
espionage and counter-espionage," he said. "It has all the elements that are
needed in international and regional conflict."
But he said that if the group had been operating since the 1980s it would be
surprising. "That's 20 years," he said. "That's a long period of time."
The timing of the arrests was also surprising, he said, given that senior
officials in the Lebanese Army had recently been replaced, disrupting the
continuity needed for counter-espionage operations. "You have to work on these
cases for a long period of time. It requires information and long periods of
monitoring," Hanna said.
"The previous period was chaotic in Lebanon, so I don't know how the arrests
happened," he added.
He said the group were probably trying to gather information about Hizbullah,
but would not have been able to infiltrate the group. "Hizbullah is an
intelligence-proof entity," he said. "It operates with a very high level of
secrecy. If you cannot get inside it, you study its environment. This is what we
are seeing."
Investigators say the men were tasked with monitoring the movements of senior
political figures in the Bekaa region, which lies on the main route between
Beirut and Damascus. Officials are also investigating a theory that the group
provided intelligence to the Israelis that may have helped them plan the killing
of the senior Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus in
February.
Hizbullah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has accused Israel of being behind
the car bomb that killed Mughniyeh and has pledged that the Shiite group will
take revenge for his death. An Israeli government spokesman refused to comment
on the arrests.
"Every couple of weeks there is someone, somewhere accusing the Mossad of
something. As a rule, we don't comment on all these accusations," the spokesman
said on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army denied the validity of media
reports that linked two men seen crossing the Lebanese-Israeli border on Sunday
with the case. In a statement issued on Sunday, the army said that the reports
were "confused."
Once America votes, Lebanon needs its own leaders to lead
By Marc J. Sirois
Daily Star staff
Monday, November 03, 2008
The latest episode of Lebanon's repeatedly delayed and interrupted national
dialogue is scheduled to take place at Baabda Palace on Wednesday, offering yet
another chance for this country's most influential political parties to start
acting in the interest of their shared homeland. Whether all, most or even any
of them can and will do so will remain open to conjecture for quite some time,
and the evidence thus far is decidedly mixed.
Much has been made of the idea that the only telling act of the first session of
the dialogue - held way back in mid-September - was to put off the second until
after the US presidential election on Tuesday. Some mocked this step as proof
that President Michel Sleiman and the fractious horde he is trying to shepherd
are simply waiting to see which way the wind from Washington will blow before
getting down to the business of discussing their own problems.
That's not fair, but not because it isn't true. It may well be that Sleiman and
his "flock" had nothing else in mind but the American campaign - but that they
also had good reason for taking that tack.
After all, while having politicians communicate by talking to one another is
better than having them disgorge angry and armed partisans onto the streets, the
holding of a dialogue is nothing like a guarantee of success. The last time the
Lebanese got to this point, for example, the talks produced considerable
acrimony - and were then called off when Israel decided to turn a border
incident into an all-out war.
In this case, the effort will again involve an exchange of ideas that cannot
help but to underscore just how badly divided the participants are on several
crucial questions. In the absence of indications that acceptable and workable
compromises are at hand to bridge these gaps, arguing about them is liable to
produce at least a temporary increase in tensions. Why, then, delve into these
thorny issues until we know who will lead the United States - and therefore how
that country's influence on this part of the world might make some solutions
more viable than others?
On one level, this is disappointing because it seems to indicate that Lebanon is
ultimately run by an ad hoc committee of vassals who take all their cues from
developments abroad. In reality, though, at this stage they have no other
option. This is how Lebanon has been governed for centuries, and it simply lacks
the strategic weight to break with that unfortunate tradition overnight. The
challenge, therefore, is not so much to start disregarding any and all foreign
input as it is to turn a corner by beginning, at last, to make the inevitable
outside concerns secondary rather than primary ones. The person and priorities
of the next US president will have a direct impact on the extent to which the
Lebanese will be able to do this.
This is not to say that the parameters of a new Lebanese modus vivendi can or
should be set by Washington, nor that we will magically know the next
president's "red lines" as of Wednesday morning (almost eight years on, George
W. Bush's remain vague at best). We will, however, have a far better sense of
whether the United States can be expected to support a compromise or sabotage
it. Likewise, we will be able to make a better guess at how much pressure the
United States is likely to put on countries like Iran and Syria in the coming
months and years - and therefore at how far the latter will be willing to go in
opposing American prerogatives in manners that figure to destabilize Lebanon.
Nor should Lebanon grind to a halt every time there is an election with the
potential to have far-reaching effects on this country's destiny. That would
only deepen the paralysis that has persisted for much of the past three years,
especially between November 2006 and this past May. After all, in the next few
months alone, Israelis will vote in parliamentary polls that will decide their
next prime minister, and Iranians will elect a president (with incumbent Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad still not confirmed as a candidate). This is not to mention
Lebanon's own legislative elections in the spring. Were Lebanon and the Lebanese
to take a wait-and-see attitude vis-a-vis all of these, nothing much of anything
would get done.
The American exercise is different, and for several reasons. For one thing, no
other country has so many fingers in so many pies in the Middle East, and
Lebanon is uniquely susceptible to the side-effects of trends making themselves
felt across the region. For another, Washington has been an avid participant in
the proxy struggles for influence in this country, so its future direction will
go a long way toward determining how much freedom of action the indigenous
actors will have - if any, and if they choose to use it - to continue the
current process of reconciliation.
Historically, American presidents have begun their terms in office with what is
called a "honeymoon" - a warm and fuzzy feeling among the general public that
allows the new head of state ample latitude to make the most of his first three
months or so in office by getting signature legislation though a compliant
Congress. That may not be the case time around, because if Republican John
McCain somehow pulls off an upset, he is almost certain to be faced with the
most hostile legislative branch in living memory. And if Democrat Barack
prevails, as expected, he might not be in any hurry to act at home because his
party will control huge majorities in both houses of Congress.
The point here is that unlike previous occupants of the White House who have
tended to concentrate overwhelmingly on domestic issues in the beginning, there
is a strong possibility that Bush's successor will choose - or be forced by
events beyond his control - to do otherwise. This will present both challenges
and opportunities for all countries in the Middle East, not least of them this
one.
By having postponed the meatiest issues of the dialogue for after the US
election, therefore, Lebanon's political class has already avoided a meaningless
spinning of its wheels that might have engendered heated debate without so much
as the prospect of a resolution. In addition, while they have not come up with
detailed mechanisms as to how they might reconcile the profound ideological
differences between their respective positions, most of the senior members of
that class have embraced rapprochement with their rivals.
What we don't yet know is whether, individually and collectively, Lebanese
political players can now graduate to the next step, that of a committed
statesmanship that has been denied this country for virtually all of the period
since it officially gained independence in 1943. Whoever the next US president
is, he will neither fix Lebanon nor destroy it unless he has a great deal of
help from the inside.
*Marc J. Sirois is managing editor of THE DAILY STAR. His email address is
marc.sirois@dailystar.com.lb.
Wassouf busted on drug charges in Sweden
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Monday, November 03, 2008
STOCKHOLM: Syrian crooner George Wassouf was arrested on drug charges in Sweden
over the weekend just hours before he was due to perform a concert, police told
AFP on Sunday.
Wassouf "has been held in police custody since yesterday [Saturday] on drug
charges," a police officer in a western district of Stockholm, Martin Holm, told
AFP.
He was arrested after a police raid at a hotel in the Swedish capital, Holm
said.
According to the online version of the daily Aftonbladet, Wassouf, 46, was in
possession of 30 grams of cocaine when he was arrested.
Holm would not comment on the report. No formal charges have been pressed
against Wassouf yet, and a prosecutor was to ask a Stockholm court to remand him
in custody on Monday pending an investigation, Holm said.
According to Aftonbladet, thousands of people had bought tickets to see the
singer perform at a newly opened venue in the Stockholm suburb of Solna.
Julieta Atanasova, 22, from the Swedish town of Norrkoeping, was one of them.
"We paid 2,000 kronor [$258] per person for a ticket. We're disappointed," she
told the daily.
"A lot of people came a long way, even from other countries" to see the concert,
she said.
Organizers told the paper ticket holders would be reimbursed. Wassouf, who moved
to Lebanon as a child, is a star in the Arab world with more than 30 albums to
his name. - AFP
Syria talks meant to pressure
Iran
By HERB KEINON -Jerusalem Post
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's intention to push forward indirect talks with Syria
three months before the country goes to the polls is motivated by a desire to
keep the heat on Iran, Western diplomatic sources said Sunday.
Slideshow: Pictures of the week According to the sources, the Turkish-mediated
indirect talks between Syria and Israel have caused a degree of concern in
Teheran, with the Iranian leaders not completely sure about which direction
Damascus was headed.
Israel has made clear that any peace agreement with Syria would necessitate a
dramatic downgrading of Syria's currently very close ties with Iran.
"Inertia in the Israeli-Syrian talks helps Iran," the sources said. "The
indirect talks help isolate Iran."
According to the sources, Israel was concerned that the momentum would be lost
if the talks were delayed until after the elections in February and the
formation of a new government.
Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul was in Israel last week, and diplomatic
officials said his meetings with Olmert focused on Iran.
It was during that meeting that Olmert indicated his interest in restarting the
indirect negotiations, which were frozen following four rounds after Olmert
announced his resignation in July. The official reason for the postponement of
the fifth round of talks was that Olmert's former chief of staff Yoram Turbowicz,
who led the talks with Syria, needed special authorization from the
attorney-general to continue to lead the negotiations after his resignation in
August.
That authorization, according to the Prime Minister's Office, has now been
obtained, and Turbowicz can lead the negotiation team as he did in the past, but
this time without being paid. The Prime Minister's Office said that no date has
yet been set for the next round of talks, but Turkish officials said they were
unlikely to be held this week. Syria, according to Turkish officials, made clear
it was ready to renew the indirect talks once there was someone in Israel
authorized to lead them.
The Syrians, according to Western diplomatic sources, were willing to hold
another round of indirect talks with Israel even though they realized that Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert was only a caretaker prime minister, because they were keen
on getting US involvement in the talks.
The US cross-border raid into Syria last week has only heightened Syria's
interest in getting Washington to engage with them within the framework of
negotiations.
According to these sources, the Syrians believe there would be less likelihood
of additional attacks on Syrian soil if they were involved in negotiations. "It
would make it more difficult for military action," the official said, referring
both to the US attack last week and the alleged Israeli attack last year on a
nascent Syrian nuclear facility. According to western diplomatic officials, the
upcoming round of indirect talks would likely deal with getting US involvement
in the discussions, as well as an Israeli reply to a six-point document that
Assad presented Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan when he met him,
along with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the Emir of Qatar, at a meeting
in Damascus in early September.
Although the details of that document have not been made public, it is believed
to deal with water issues, the demarcation of the border on the Golan Heights,
and security arrangements there following an Israeli withdrawal. While it is
believed this document was passed on to Israel through unofficial channels,
diplomatic officials said it has not yet been discussed in the indirect
Israeli-Syrian channel.
Obama gaining ground among Jews, with 70% in
favor
By AP AND JPOST STAFF -Jerusalem Post
A new poll showed on Monday Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama
gaining ground among Jewish voters, widening the gap to 40 percent against his
rival, Arizona Senator John McCain. Democratic presidential candidate Sen.
Barack Obama, waves as he enters a rally at the University of Cincinnati in
Cincinnati, Ohio Sunday. Slideshow: The eleventh hour The Washington Post
reported that its Post-ABC News tracking poll found Obama leading 70%-29% among
Jewish voters, a lead similar to the one former Democratic presidential
candidate John Kerry enjoyed in 2004, when he held a 74-25 percent advantage
over George W. Bush. On Sunday, Obama drew massive crowds to some of his final
campaign rallies as Americans appeared likely to cap the longest, most expensive
White House campaign ever by electing the Democrat as the first black US
president on Tuesday.
McCain, looking to score the United States' biggest political upset in 60 years,
assured supporters Sunday that the race is tightening.
But polls show Obama leading in Pennsylvania and other key states. Nationally,
several major polls show Obama with a 7-8 percentage point advantage.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain gives a thumbs up as he
leaves the stage following a town hall event Sunday, in Peterborough, New
Hampshire. With the economy in turmoil and the approval levels of US President
George W. Bush, a Republican, at near-record lows, Democrats have high hopes not
only of capturing the White House, but also expanding their majorities in both
chambers of Congress.
A victory would mark a stunning rise for the 47-year-old Obama, who was little
known nationally before being elected as a senator from Illinois four years ago.
He began running for president just two years later.
Obama exuded confidence Sunday. "The last couple of days, I've been just feeling
good," he told 80,000 gathered to hear him - and singer Bruce Springsteen - in
Cleveland, in the pivotal state of Ohio. "The crowds seem to grow and
everybody's got a smile on their face. You start thinking that maybe we might be
able to win an election on November 4th."
An earlier rally in Columbus, Ohio, drew an estimated 60,000 people.
Obama has capitalized on anti-Republican sentiment, linking McCain to the
unpopular Bush. McCain's campaign has tried to cast Obama as too inexperienced,
too liberal and too tainted by associations with unsavory characters.
The electoral map clearly favors Obama. To be elected, a candidate must win at
least 270 of the 538 electoral votes distributed to states roughly in proportion
to their population. In most cases, the candidate who wins a plurality of votes
in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes.
Obama is favored to win all the states Democrats captured in 2004, when Bush
defeated Sen. John Kerry. That would give him 251 votes. He is leading or tied
in several states won by Bush, giving him several possibilities for reaching the
270 votes - winning a big Bush state like Ohio or Florida, or a combination of
smaller ones. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Sunday that the Democrat
has expanded the electoral map by aggressively campaigning in traditional
Republican states like Virginia, Colorado and Nevada.
"We did not want to wake up on the morning of Nov. 4 waiting for one state. We
wanted a lot of different ways to win this election," Plouffe said on Fox
television.
McCain has to hold on to as many Bush states as possible and try to capture
Pennsylvania. A defeat there, or a loss in Ohio, Florida or Virginia, would make
it extremely unlikely he could collect the 270 votes.
Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said on Fox that Pennsylvania will be
"the most important state to watch" on Tuesday.
McCain planned to return to Pennsylvania before heading home to Arizona on
election day. On Monday, he was targeting states won by Bush: Florida, Virginia,
Indiana, New Mexico and Nevada.
Obama on Monday was also targeting Bush states: Florida, North Carolina and
Virginia.
McCain's advisers noted that the Arizona senator has come from behind before. A
year ago, McCain's campaign appeared all but dead before he rebounded to win the
New Hampshire primary and go on to capture the Republican nomination.
McCain held his campaign's final town hall-style event Sunday in New Hampshire.
"I come to the people of New Hampshire to ask them to let me go on one more
mission," he said. There are still many uncertainties that could affect
Tuesday's outcome - including how many traditionally Democratic voters reject
Obama because of his race, whether Obama's candidacy will spark a huge boost in
voting by African-Americans and young people, and which side will do the better
job getting out the vote. Republicans on Sunday launched the last stage of its
vaunted "72-hour program," when volunteers descend on competitive states for the
final stretch. Democrats unleashed their "persuasion army" of backers scouring
their own backyards to encourage people to back Obama in the campaign's waning
hours.
More than 10,000 Obama volunteers in Ohio were knocking on doors and were
expected to hit their one-millionth home Sunday after a five-day push.
Also adding to the uncertainty is the early voting allowed in some states. About
27 million absentee and early votes were cast in 30 states as of Saturday night,
more than ever. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in pre-election day voting in
key states.
That has Democrats - and even some Republicans - privately questioning whether
McCain can overtake Obama, even if Republicans turn out in droves on Tuesday.
Obama may already have too big of a head start in critical states like Nevada
and Iowa, which Bush won four years ago.
Obama has had a huge fundraising advantage over McCain. But McCain and the
Republican Party dramatically ramped up their spending in the campaign's final
days and now are matching Obama ad for ad, if not exceeding him, in key
battleground states.
Together, the two presidential candidates have amassed nearly $1 billion - a
stratospheric number in a campaign of record-shattering money numbers. Depending
on turnout, $1 billion means nearly $8 for every presidential vote, compared
with $5.50 in 2004.
The campaigns were using the money for a crush of television ads and phone calls
targeting voters in swing states.
Slideshow: The eleventh hour In a new ad, Obama highlighted Vice President Dick
Cheney's support for McCain. The ad features Cheney, an extremely unpopular
figure among the Americans, at an event Saturday in Wyoming, saying: "I'm
delighted to support John McCain."
The Republican Party, meanwhile, rolled out battleground phone calls that
include Hillary Rodham Clinton's criticism of Obama during the Democratic
primary. Promoting herself as the candidate with enough experience to take on
McCain, she is heard saying: "In the White House, there is no time for speeches
and on-the-job training. Sen. McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the
campaign, and Sen. Obama will bring a speech that he gave in 2002."
Clinton fought a tough primary battle against Obama, but is supporting his
candidacy and has campaigned for him. A Clinton spokeswoman said she disapproves
of the ad.
Pennsylvania Republicans also unveiled a TV ad featuring Obama's former pastor,
the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, declaring "God damn America!" in a sermon.
During the primaries, Obama was kept on the defensive about his relationship
with Wright, but McCain said he would not make the pastor an issue in the
general election campaign.
Duplicity in Damascus
By David Schenker
The Weekly Standard | Monday, November 03, 2008
When it comes to al Qaeda, Syria gets it coming and going. This past Sunday,
U.S. helicopters targeted an al Qaeda operative on Syrian territory who shuttled
terrorists into Iraq. Syria condemned the strike as a violation of its
sovereignty and a "serious aggression." Earlier in October, a massive car bomb
detonated in Damascus, killing 17. Even before the smoke cleared, Syria's Assad
regime accused Sunni Muslim fundamentalists from abroad--i.e., al Qaeda--of
perpetrating the attack. Meanwhile, regime spokesmen described Syria as a
"victim" of international terrorism.
The characterization of Syria as "victim" was ironic not only because Damascus
has been a proactive member of the State Department's list of state sponsors of
terrorism since 1979--sponsoring Hamas and Hezbollah, among others--but because
just one day before the attack, the U.S. District Court of the District of
Columbia levied a mammoth civil judgment against Syria for "providing material
support and resources to Zarqawi and Al Qaeda in Iraq."
The verdict awarded $414 million to the families of two U.S. contractors--Jack
Armstrong and Jack Hensley--beheaded in Iraq in September 2004.
Due to the opaque nature of the authoritarian Assad regime, it will likely never
be clear who was actually responsible for the bombing. Syria routinely engages
in conspiracies, so it's no surprise that conspiracy theories have proliferated
regarding the culprit, with explanations alternately implicating the Iranians,
the Israelis, and even the Assad regime itself. Adding to the uncertainty, some
Western-based al Qaeda analysts say the assault lacked many of the
organization's signature traits.
Notwithstanding the speculation, let's assume for the moment that al Qaeda did
sponsor the attack. If so, it should have come as no surprise to Damascus: As
the experiences of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan demonstrate, al Qaeda has a track
record of attacking its sponsors.
Since 2002, the Assad regime has facilitated the movement through its territory
of al Qaeda fighters bound for Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It has allowed these
insurgents to train in Syria and has provided sanctuary to al Qaeda-affiliated
killers of Americans. By and large, this policy purchased Syria immunity from
attacks. Along the way, however, these terrorists appear to have planted local
roots.
In the lead up to the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, when it became clear that
Syria was helping shuttle Islamist insurgents to Iraq, Washington warned
Damascus of the folly of this policy. U.S. diplomats in Damascus repeatedly told
the Syrian government that Islamists posed a threat to the secular nationalist
regime.
Damascus's logic was based on its opposition to the establishment of a
pro-Western government in Baghdad. As then Foreign Minister Farouq Shara said in
2003, "Syria's interest is to see the invaders defeated in Iraq." But the Assad
regime failed to take into account the dynamic of the al Qaeda's relations with
its "friends." In Pakistan, for example, the intelligence service long supported
al Qaeda, but the state nonetheless remained a high value target of the
organization.
In al Qaeda's evolving strategy, targeting is not contingent on a state's
political orientation or on the assistance it receives from governments.
Basically, the organization has no qualms about biting the hand that feeds it,
whether the patron is Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Syria. In this regard, if the
Syrians are telling the truth about who perpetrated the attack, it is a clear
case of the chickens coming home to roost.
Ultimately, Damascus's newfound problem with al Qaeda may change the Assad
regime's permissive attitude toward the group, but it's unlikely to have any
impact on Syrian support for Hezbollah and Hamas. These longstanding
relationships with Islamist terrorist organizations are closely linked to the
30-year strategic alliance between Damascus and Tehran.
For the next U.S. administration, Syrian support for al Qaeda should prove a
cautionary tale about the limits of diplomatic engagement in curtailing Syrian
support for terrorism. The Assad regime has trucked with Islamist terrorists for
decades, and provides no indication that it would be willing to sever these
relationships. Senior Israeli officials--including likely incoming prime
minister Tzipi Livni--have stated that a peace deal is contingent on Syria's
abandoning Tehran, forsaking terror, and joining the Western camp. Syria has
responded emphatically and repeatedly that this kind of strategic reorientation
is not in the cards.
During the presidential debates, there were sharp disagreements as to how
Washington should best treat rogue states. Regardless of whether the next
administration is led by Barack Obama or John McCain, however, many observers
believe that Washington will look to reengage in high-level diplomacy with
Damascus and perhaps even consent to mediate Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations.
Indeed, there are some indications that the Bush administration is already
pursuing this tack.
Changing Syria's orientation would be of great benefit, but experience suggests
it's not a realistic hope. While many excuse Syrian ties to Hamas and Hezbollah
as "cards" that will someday be traded during negotiations, the revelations
about the ties to al Qaeda highlight just how inimical the Assad regime's
worldview is to U.S. interests. Support for terrorism appears to be intrinsic to
the regime. Given this dynamic, U.S. diplomacy with Damascus stands little
chance of success.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
David Schenker is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy. From 2002 to 2006 he was the Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestinian
affairs adviser in the office of the secretary of defense.
Iran: No to War and No to
Isolation
01/11/2008
Huda Al Husseini
http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=14587
Iran has always denied that it intervenes in the affairs of other countries or
that it arms violent organizations in other states. It always demands proof when
accusations are cast against it in this regard.
Last week, General Hossein Hamedani, a top commander of the Revolutionary Guards
said that his country supplies weapons to “liberation armies,” in the Middle
East. “Not only are our armed forces self-sufficient; liberation armies of the
region get part of their weapons from us,” he said. And when the body of the
Revolutionary Guards speaks, it means that a vital part of the Iranian
leadership is speaking. One of the candidates running for Iranian presidency
will depend on the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian intelligence services to
win the presidential race as both bodies await the signal of the Supreme Guide
of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamanei. But what if the Supreme Guide
endorsed a moderate candidate?
In Iran today, it is common practice that important positions are given to
figures from the Revolutionary Guards. It is “The regime’s university that
graduates those who excel at protecting that regime, therefore, Mohammed Ali
Najafi and Mohammed Reda Aref’s chances [at running for presidency] are limited.
Both of them lack backgrounds in security [forces] and the Revolutionary Guards.
They both might support presidential candidate Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf (the mayor
of Tehran) over the incumbent President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
But are there any moderates in Iran?
Iranian Professor Hossein Askari from George Washington University said, “There
is a widespread misconception in the West and the Arab world about Iran; [in
these parts of the world] people believe that Iranians are ideologues and
extremists and they believe this as a result of what they see on the surface.
The ideology in Iran is the way it is as a reaction.”
For example, explains Askari, former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani is
considered a pragmatic individual, and the strongest and most important figure
after Khamanei, “and it is not true that these two are in disagreement with one
another; on the contrary, they are very close to each other and coordinate with
one another…the conservatives in Iran are conservatives because they have been
pushed into a corner.”
Because of his popularity, away from Khamanei’s support, Rafsanjani can be
pragmatic. In Iran, he is believed to have the ability to protect economic
interests; but he is not a candidate and nor is former president Mohammed
Khatami. Rather, both will endorse Qalibaf.
There were news reports this week that current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was
suffering from exhaustion and this comes as no surprise. In the same way that
the financial crisis in America will hinder the election of Republican John
McCain [in the US presidential elections], the drop in oil prices might pose a
problem for Ahmadinejad and hinder his re-election.
Professor Askari explained, “If McCain is elected as president in the United
States then the next president of Iran will be Ahmadinejad and the confrontation
will intensify. In this case, the countries of the Gulf must decide on how they
will face Iran.”
“The West supported the Iran-Iraq war that was funded by Gulf states. Iran
overcame this period and doesn’t make mention of Gulf funding of the war but if
we are faced with a new confrontation then there will be a new regional war and
it will be disastrous,” added Askari. He stated that we should learn from
history because when states are faced with internal problems this turns into war
and could ignite global conflicts. “If I have problems with somebody, I would
sit down with that person [to solve them]. Iran will not accept any
preconditions and the West cannot call for negotiations with Iran and set
preconditions upon it at the same time. Dialogue means talking and listening.
In the case that Senator Barack Obama is elected, the next Iranian president
will not be provocative but could be sold to the Americans as a rational and
logical figure. He will be a conservative but more moderate than Ahmadinejad.
Qalibaf is the most prominent [candidate] followed by Mohammed Nahavandian,
Iran’s Head of Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines.
Nahavandian is very close to Majlis [parliament] Speaker Ali Larijani and fell
out with Ahmadinejad immediately after Larijani resigned from his position as
national security advisor in October 2007. If he confirms his nomination, there
is no doubt that he will be supported by Larijani.
Ali Larijani announced recently that he would not run in the presidential race
and this was expected. He was [an unsuccessful] candidate in the 2005
presidential race and then was appointed national security advisor, a post that
he occupied until he fell out with Ahmadinejad. Larijani comes from a family of
Imams and has the trust of Khamanei and is favoured amongst the hardliners. He
was recently appointed Majlis [parliament] speaker, which is a powerful position
in itself and to gain this position, a relative and companion of the Supreme
Guide, Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel had to be removed [from this post]. Perhaps he was
chosen for this position because he does not want to be president of the
republic. Moreover, it is not in his interest to appear as if he is hopping from
one position to another as he still a member of the Revolutionary Guards and he
has become a moderate amongst the conservatives.
As for Qalibaf, who cannot be categorised as a reformist, he has never acted in
a way that indicates that he is against the West. He runs Tehran and is
concerned with the infrastructure, water and electricity even though he has not
been able to supply the city with electricity the whole time and Tehran has
suffered considerably from electricity shortages. However, the conservatives
respect him and he can be considered semi-conservative. But with the US raid on
the Syrian-Iraqi border in mind, is it possible that Iran could be subjected to
some kind of attack as well?
Professor Askari completely ruled out this idea. He said, “Iran is under no
threat militarily. There is no real plan for war on Iran in what remains of
George W. Bush’s term as America has economic problems. There are already two
costly wars; one in Iraq and one in Afghanistan, and America has problems in its
banking system and it will have a serious financial deficit. If it begins a
third war its problems will increase drastically.” Askari added, “Iran is
approximately three times bigger than Iraq or more, and its population is double
that of Iraq and it could carry out operations against Western interests not
only in Lebanon but in a number of other countries as well. Therefore, I do not
believe that the West wants to launch a war against Iran.”
With the next US administration, the scale of American military presence in the
Middle East might decrease but it will not disappear altogether regardless of
who will be the next American president. Askari highlighted that Iran has not
launched raids against any other state for 200 years: “It is does not look for
war but the Iranians want their country to be a key player in the Middle East
and considering Iran’s history, it is one of the most important countries in the
region and does not want to be isolated.”
There is a reciprocated grievance between the West and Iran in the Middle East.
Each side accuses the other of considering and treating the other as a
second-class citizen and Iran believes that America interferes in the region
much more than Britain did. Iran, with its hope that the American military
presence in the Middle East will diminish, is also hoping for a regional
agreement and wants economic coordination and cooperation with regional states
because this is it what it needs.
But Iran’s dealings with the region are not reassuring of the Islamic Republic’s
intentions; rather they provoke fear and rejection of Iran’s orientations and
ambitions. Professor Askari said, “The Middle East’s problem is that countries
are fighting one another by proxy and the two most important fields now are
Lebanon and Afghanistan. If America is expanding its military presence then Iran
wants to find a way to confront America.” He asked, “What does Iran want from
Lebanon? It wants to win over its sympathisers, particularly the Shia in
Lebanon. I know that there are some Lebanese who do not like Iran but Iran wants
to protect itself and it sees Lebanon, by virtue of its large Shia population,
as a potential ally.” He added, “In the Iraq-Iran war, Syria was Iran’s only
ally and I don’t think Iran wants to be in that position again, i.e. isolated
from the rest of the region. There is a Shia population in Lebanon and those
ruling Iraq today are closely linked to Tehran.”
At the end of the day, in Professor Askari’s opinion, the priority of the next
US administration will be the problem of the US economy, and the issues of the
Middle East will affect this because they are draining its wealth. Accordingly,
Iran should realise that its looming problem is also economic related and that
it is not immune as some of its politicians believe.
Finally, Askari said, “Iran delayed making important economic decisions because
oil prices were high. Now these prices have dropped and Iran must quickly change
its policies. It could have done so gradually over the past few years. If Obama
wins [the US presidential elections], Ahmadinejad will not be the next president
of Iran but rather, another [figure] will be accepted by the world and the
Arabs.”