LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 03/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 18,1-5.10. At that time the disciples approached Jesus and said, "Who is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven?"He called a child over, placed it in their midst, and said, "Amen, I say to you, unless you turn and become like children, you will not enter the kingdom of heaven. Whoever humbles himself like this child is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven. And whoever receives one child such as this in my name receives me. See that you do not despise one of these little ones, for I say to you that their angels in heaven always look upon the face of my heavenly Father.

Saint Bernard (1091-1153), Cistercian monk and Doctor of the Church
12th sermon on Psalm 90
«See, I am sending an angel before you, to guard you on the way and bring you to the place I have prepared» (Ex 23,20)
«To his angels he has given command about you, that they guard you in all your ways» (Ps 91[90],11). What respect these words should arouse in you, to what fervour they should give birth, what trust they should inspire! Respect on account of their presence, fervour on account of their watchfulness, trust on account of their vigilance... They are there at your side, then, not just with you but for you. They stand beside you to protect and help you. What return will you make to the Lord for all the good he has done to you? (Ps 116,12; [115,3]). It is to him alone we should give thanks and honor for their aid; it is he who has commanded them. «Every perfect gift» (Jas 1,17) comes from him alone. But we are on no account to fail in thanksgiving regarding the angels in view of the great charity with which they obey him and the great need we have of their assistance.
So let us be full of respect and thanksgiving for such vigilance on their part; let us love them in return and honor them as best we are able, as much as we ought... In God let us love the angels, knowing that one day we shall be sharers in the inheritance and that between then and now the Father allows and arranges that they may be our guides and instructors. For «we are God's children now» even though it has not yet been clearly revealed (1Jn 3,2) since we are still children subject to stewards and tutors and, for the present, we seem no different from servants.
Nevertheless, small though we be, and long and dangerous though the road may be that remains for us to travel, what do we have to fear under so good a guardian?... The angels are faithful, wise and powerful; what have we to fear? Let us only follow them and hold fast to them and we shall abide under the protection of the God of heaven.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Stability in Lebanon Threatened, Again.By David Schenker 02/09/08
Syria: The Player or the Game.By Mshari Al-Zaydi. Asharq Alawsat 02/09/08
Let the dissidents chalenge the jihadists- Dr. Walid Phares 02/09/08
Beirut After More Than One Month of War-By JUSTIN VEL 02/09/08
Iran’s Other Weapon-By Richard Palmer . theTrumpet.com 02/09/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 02/08
Couchepin to hold first-ever talks in Lebanon-Swissinfo
U.S. Senate Passes $700 Billion Rescue-AP
One Person Injured in Tripoli Grenade Attack-Naharnet
Rice To Muallem: We Are Not in a Dilemma and Syria Must Abandon Bets on Change in U.S. Administration-Naharnet
France: March 14 Must Not Give Syria an Excuse Not to Fulfill its Commitments-Naharnet
US warns Syria against intervention in Lebanon-Xinhua
Syria Officially Asked Lebanon for Border Control Coordination-Naharnet
Lebanon's Sunni fundamentalist leader warns against Syrian incursion-Xinhua
Gemayel" Syrian deployment Not Innocent-Naharnet
One Person Injured in Tripoli Grenade Attack-Naharnet
Shahhal to Assad: Don't Open Gates of Hell From North Lebanon-Naharnet
U.N. Commission: Names of Culprits in Hariri Crime Would be Referred to Tribunal-Naharnet
Gemayel: Syrian Deployment Not Innocent-Naharnet
Syria’s next step to reform-Financial Times
US fears weapons sent to Lebanese military could be reaching Hizbullah-World Tribune
Syrian FM denies Syria is providing weapons to Hezbollah-International Middle East Media Center
Syria denies supplying arms to Hezbollah-Ha'aretz -
Hand grenade wounds one person in northern Lebanon-Earthtimes (press release)
Fears rise in Lebanon of Syria return-Mail & Guardian Online

One Person Injured in Tripoli Grenade Attack
Naharnet/One person was injured early Thursday in a grenade blast in an area of the northern city of Tripoli that has seen bloody clashes between two rival factions, a security official told Agence France Presse. The grenade was thrown in the Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh region where some 23 people were killed in June and July in battles between Sunni supporters of the government and their Damascus-backed rivals from the Alawite community in Tripoli.
Alawites are an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Tensions between the two communities eased in the past few weeks after both sides signed a reconciliation accord and the army deployed heavily in the area. But concern that the situation could escalate again mounted this week after a car bomb targeting the army on Monday left seven people dead, four of them soldiers, and at least 30 people injured.No one has claimed responsibility for the attack.(AFP) Beirut, 02 Oct 08, 07:00

France: March 14 Must Not Give Syria an Excuse Not to Fulfill its Commitments
Naharnet/French officials will reportedly meet with a visiting delegation from the majority March 14 Forces to urge the coalition to improve ties with Syria and not give the neighboring country an excuse not to fulfill its commitments. According to information obtained by Naharnet, the March 14 delegation – made of MPs Marwan Hamadeh and Samir Franjieh as well as March 14 coordinator Fares Soaid and National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun – will meet head of the Middle East and North Africa department at the French foreign ministry Patrice Paoli and his aides. Pan Arab daily al-Hayat on Thursday quoted a well-informed French source as saying that France wants to urge the alliance to improve its relations with Syria and not to give Damascus "any pretext to run away from its commitments." The source said that Paris wants to hear the coalition's view on the adoption of the new elections law, the launch of the national dialogue and the unstable security situation in the northern city of Tripoli.He also said that French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is ready to receive Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun anytime the Lebanese MP wants. The source said Damascus was worried about the situation in Tripoli because of historic ties between the city's Sunnis and those of Homs in Syria. But such worries shouldn't lead to a change in Syria's policy towards the Lebanese city, according to the source, and that Damascus shouldn't adopt any measure that contradicts recent Syrian openness. On the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms area, the source said: "France continues to ask Israel to withdraw from" the zone in order to put an end to Hizbullah's excuses to keep its arms. The source also said that Israel has been expressing concern to France and the U.S. about alleged arms smuggling to Hizbullah through the Syrian border. France sees that the best way is for Israel to withdraw from Shebaa, according to the source. Beirut, 02 Oct 08, 05:49

Rice To Muallem: We Are Not in a Dilemma and Syria Must Abandon Bets on Change in U.S. Administration
Naharnet/U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said that meetings between senior U.S. State Department officials and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem were not a sign of change in U.S. policy toward Damascus. "Neither are the (meetings) a sign that Syria has changed its policy," Rice said.
According to a high-ranking source at the State Department and sources from the U.S. envoy in New York, Muallem's meeting with Rice on Friday at the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly was upon Syria's insistence. Muallem, however, has said that the talks on Friday were held upon Rice's request.
Muallem on Monday held talks with Assistant Secretary of State David Welch in New York. The same sources told Naharnet that Rice -- who had briefed her aides as well as French sides about the U.S. position from the latest developments -- did not see any objection to a "quick" meeting with Muallem.
Washington has stressed that the meetings with Muallem not be given any media importance. State Department officials said that Washington was keen on sending out a message to Syria -- during Muallem's meetings with both Rice and Welch -- that Damascus must abandon betting on changes in the U.S. administration which will soon realize that the new administration is not going to differ under Barack Obama or John McCain.
The sources said hints by Syria at cutting a deal to achieve a regional role are "rejected." The senior U.S. officials, according to the sources, had made it clear to Muallem that Syria has to comply with international standards in the areas of global and regional security and stability; and not continue with its policies of "blackmail" and "pressure" through destabilizing Lebanon, Iraq and Palestinian territories.
They said Muallem had made a "wrong reading" of international and U.S. developments since his discussions with Rice and Welch made U.S. officials deduce that Damascus believed Washington was in a dilemma and that Muallem carried with him a "Syrian plan" that would get the U.S. out of this problem.
Meanwhile, Syrian sources told Naharnet in New York that Muallem relayed to the U.S. administration Damascus' point of view on bilateral relations and the situation in the Middle East. They said Muallem came to tell the United States "in a positive way" Syria's stand from the developments in the region after these developments – and as a result of the U.S. policy – had a "dangerous" effect on more than one country Washington claims to be working to maintain its sovereignty and independence.
Muallem, according to the sources, also came to inform the U.S. administration that terrorism – which the U.S. claims to be fighting -- has reached an extent that requires change in America's strategy in countering it based on "mutual work" with the various victims, including Syria.
The sources stressed that Muallem presented a "reading" that showed the U.S. administration's "fault" in its efforts to weaken Syria "since the beneficiary of weakening Syria is terrorism."On the Middle East peace process, the sources said that Muallem had informed Rice and Welch that Syria is willing to move forward toward "direct" negotiations with Israel. Both U.S. and Syrian sources agreed at the end that the positions of their countries were still a distance apart and that relations between the two sides are not likely to see new changes before the first half of next year. Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 14:55

Syria Officially Asked Lebanon for Border Control Coordination
Naharnet/Syria has officially asked Lebanon for border control coordination between the two countries which requires an understanding on a number of measures, including countering terrorism and ending smuggling along the northern and eastern frontiers.
Pan-Arab daily al-Hayat on Thursday quoted sources as saying that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has raised this issue with his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman at their recent summit in Damascus. The Lebanese Cabinet is studying Syria's request to come up with a response.
The sources said that the Syrian request for border coordination with Lebanon coincided with Damascus' keenness to deny any knowledge of the much talked about Syrian military intervention in Lebanon. They said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has discussed rumors about Damascus' intentions of a military comeback to Lebanon with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem in New York in light of what had been echoed in France that Paris, along with the European Union, does mind entrusting Syria with Lebanon's security. They said Rice and Assistant Secretary of State David Welch -- who had also met Muallem in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly – told the Syrian FM that it was impossible for Damascus to think of crossing the border into Lebanese territory not for any reason because this would be a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and UNSC resolutions as well as a challenge to the international community. Al-Hayat said the sources quoted Muallem as saying that Syria "would never think of intervening." "All we want is security coordination between the two countries in an effort to control the common border in order to hit extremists and end all sort of smuggling," Muallem was quoted as saying. The sources also quoted Assad as telling leaders of the Lebanese opposition at a recent meeting that Damascus has no intentions for a Syrian army comeback to Lebanon. "We want to reach a security coordination formula … to counter terrorism and end arms smuggling," Assad was quoted as saying. Beirut, 02 Oct 08, 09:32

Shahhal to Assad: Don't Open Gates of Hell From North Lebanon
Naharnet/The highest Ranking Salafi Authority in Lebanon, Dai al-Islam Shahhal, warned against an incursion by the Syrian Army into north Lebanon saying it would open "the gates of hell and lead to what is similar to Iraq and its misery."  Shahhal made the remark in an interview with the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Anbaa to be published on Thursday. Excerpts of the interview were faxed to Naharnet on Wednesday. "The Syrian command and its allies in Lebanon are keen on driving a wedge between the Salafi movement and the Lebanese military establishment in order to drag the whole Sunni community into a conflict," Shahhal said. The wave of terrorist bombings rocking Tripoli, according to Shahhal, "is an integral part of the deal concluded by the Syrian-Israeli negotiations which calls for Syrian (military) incursion in Tripoli and the north to finish off the Salafi Movement, as a first step, and other Lebanese factions allied with Syria, as a second step." He said "such schemes would be confronted by awareness of Salafi leaders … and the Lebanese military command's wisdom." Shahhal said the Salafi Movement would only take any decision to confront the threat "after consulting with the security forces and political leaders, at the executive and legislative levels.""The Salafi Movement is not like other factions and would not take decisions to go to war or peace without coordinating its moves with all other factions because they have the right to set the national path," Shahhal added. He warned against the "repercussions of any adventure by the special Syrian forces."He urged Assad to refrain from such a step that would "open the gates of hell and lead to what is similar to Iraq and its misery." Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 20:35

U.N. Commission: Names of Culprits in Hariri Crime Would be Referred to Tribunal
Naharnet/The U.N. Commission probing the 2005 murder of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri said Wednesday it would not publish names of culprits in the crime, but would refer them to the International Tribunal. Radhya Achouri, spokesperson for the commission, told Naharnet "As Commissioner Daniel Bellemare stated in April 2008 when he presented his first report to the U.N. Security Council, no names will be disclosed by the Commission throughout the duration of its mandate. Names would only be known when indictments will be issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon when and if sufficient evidence is established for issuing indictments."
She made the remark in answering a question about a report by the daily al-Anwar that Chief U.N. investigator Bellemare will reveal the names of 120 suspects involved in the Hariri assassination. The daily Al-Anwar, which carried the information, said the names would be made public in Bellemare's final report, which is to be published Dec. 2. It said the 120 names in Bellemare's report had been classified under the following headings: Planner, executor, interferer and information withholder. The report said the exposure of the names would cause a "political earthquake," considering the importance of the role the suspects played in the period prior to the assassination of Hariri in February 2005. Al-Anwar quoted local sources as saying that the report reveals that Hariri's murder took about eight months of planning, even before the assassination attempt against MP Marwan Hamadeh. The report also uncovers that the executors, at the final stages of carrying out the bombing attack, made three try-outs, using the same number of escort cars and trucks, including one similar to the Mitsubishi with the same amount of explosives used in the real assault. Al-Anwar, citing reliable sources, said the report has reached a "very dangerous phase," by mentioning that members of an official security apparatus were among those involved in the try-outs and that at one point the head of the security authority was overlooking the operation. The report also includes wiretapping of mobile calls. "It's over. We got rid of him," excerpts of a conversation with one of the suspects said. Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 11:24

Gemayel: Syrian Deployment Not Innocent
Naharnet/Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel said Syrian President Basher Assad tried to give himself the right to intervene in Lebanon by saying it is similar to Georgia. Gemayel, in a television interview, said deploying Syrian troops off Lebanon's northern borders is "not an innocent" move. He said the recent meetings between the various factions are not tantamount to reconciliation but rather "disengagement efforts." "Hizbullah removed its posters from Beirut. But did not withdraw its weapons?" Gemayel asked. "According to our information the Army still cannot go to Sujud," he said. He said coordination among March 14 forces "should be better." He criticized Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement for backing armed Hizbullah until the Arab-Israeli conflict is settled.
Nevertheless, "our hand would remain stretched to Aoun for dialogue," Gemayel added. Intra-Christian reconciliation can be achieved "through Bkirki and by maintaining our concept of national sovereignty," Gemayel concluded. Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 22:20

Suleiman: Syria Trying to Bolster its Border Control
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman was quoted Wednesday as saying Syria is trying to bolster control over its borders with north Lebanon to "avert problems."
Interior Minister Ziad Baroud also quoted the president as saying the deployment of Syrian troops off Lebanon's northern borders is subject to mutual understanding.  "Bolstering border control by the two sides is in the interest of both states," Baroud quoted the president as saying. Baroud made the remark to reporters after meeting Suleiman at the latter's private residence in the northern town of Amsheet. He said Suleiman was not pleased because parliament has not adopted all the proposed reforms to the election law. The president was keen on allowing non-resident citizens to cast their votes, Baroud explained.
 Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 18:02

MPs Geagea, Murr Exchange Views on Threats Targeting Army
Naharnet/MPs Strida Geagea and Michel Murr on Wednesday discussed the recent attacks targeting the Lebanese Army and intra-Christian reconciliation efforts.
Geagea, who met Murr at the latter's office, said the discussion was not related to the 2009 parliamentary elections. "We've agreed to postpone discussion of the elections topic to February," she told reporters. Murr said he has "forgotten the previous problem with the Lebanese Forces" due to the apology that LF leader Samir Geagea has made for civil war wounds and related atrocities. Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 16:53

Qabalan for Cooperation Between Lebanon-Syria, Army-Resistance
Naharnet/The highest Shiite religious authority in Lebanon, Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan, called Wednesday for security coordination between Lebanon and Syria to protect the two countries. Qabalan made the remark in a sermon marking the first day of the Fitr holiday for Shiites. Sunnis observed Fitr on Tuesday.
He denounced the "criminal blasts" that targeted Tripoli and Damascus in the past few days, stressing "whatever strikes at Syria also strikes at Lebanon and whatever strikes at Lebanon strikes at Syria."He also called for "upgraded coordination between the army and the resistance so that the latter would be a reserve force to assist the army in defending the country." Qabalan called for adopting a defense strategy that "provides the army with backing because Israel is evil."
Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 16:30

Geagea: Assad Setting the Stage For Military Comeback to Lebanon
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Wednesday accused Syrian President Bashar Assad of setting the stage for a military comeback to Lebanon.
Geagea, in a television interview, said Assad's charge that north Lebanon poses a threat to Syria's security is aimed at "setting the atmosphere for Syrian intervention in Lebanon." "The only fanatic group that existed in north Lebanon is Fatah al-Islam, which is a Syrian intelligence puppet," Geagea noted.
"This group carried out all acts of violence in Lebanon since withdrawal of the Syrian Army" in April 2005, Geagea said. Lebanese security forces, according to Geagea, believe that Fatah al-Islam "remnants are carrying out revenge attacks against the army." The Lebanese Forces leader urged the Arab League to "shoulder its responsibilities" regarding what he termed the Assad threats. Geagea noted that the "vast majority of the Lebanese people is against (Syrian) intervention." Arab states and the international community also oppose such intervention, he noted. Syria, which Geagea says has deployed 10-12,000 troops of its special forces along a 45-kilometer wide front off Lebanon's northern borders, "should tell us who killed (Hizbullah's) Imad Mughniyeh and Brig. Gen. Mohammed Suleiman and who is behind the Damascus car bombing … before thinking of helping Lebanon and charging that north Lebanon poses a threat to Syria." Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 16:16

Maronite Bishops: Atmosphere is Not One of Cooperation
Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops on Wednesday criticized the various political leaders for not cooperating in order to get Lebanon out of its ordeal.
"The general atmosphere prevailing in Lebanon is not one of cooperation among the various parties in order to get the country out of its ordeal," a statement at the end of the Bishops' monthly meeting said. It said the latest bomb attack in Tripoli was "evidence that those looking for evil for Lebanon are still active."
Beirut, 01 Oct 08, 13:05

U.S. Senate Passes $700 Billion Rescue
AP/After one spectacular failure, the $700 billion financial industry bailout found a second life Wednesday, winning lopsided passage in the Senate and gaining ground in the House, where Republicans opposition softened.
Senators loaded the economic rescue bill with tax breaks and other sweeteners before passing it by a wide margin, 74-25, a month before the presidential and congressional elections.
In the House, leaders were working feverishly to convert enough opponents of the bill to push it through by Friday, just days after lawmakers there stunningly rejected an earlier version and sent markets plunging around the globe.
The measure didn't cause the same uproar in the Senate, where both parties' presidential candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, made rare appearances to cast "aye" votes, as did Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
In the final vote, 39 Democrats, 34 Republicans and independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut voted "yes." Nine Democrats, 15 Republicans and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont voted "no."
President Bush issued a statement praising the Senate's move. With the revisions, Bush said, "I believe members of both parties in the House can support this legislation. The American people expect and our economy demands that the House pass this good bill this week and send it to my desk."
The rescue package lets the government spend billions of dollars to buy bad mortgage-related securities and other devalued assets held by troubled financial institutions. If successful, advocates say, that would allow frozen credit to begin flowing again and prevent a deep recession.
Even as the Senate voted, House leaders were hunting for the 12 votes they would need to turn around Monday's 228-205 defeat. They were especially targeting the 133 Republicans who voted "no."
Their opposition appeared to be easing after the Senate added $110 billion in tax breaks for businesses and the middle class, plus a provision to raise, from $100,000 to $250,000, the cap on federal deposit insurance.
They were also cheering a decision Tuesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission to ease rules that force companies to devalue assets on their balance sheets to reflect the price they can get on the market.
There were worries, though, that the tax breaks would cause some conservative-leaning "Blue Dog" Democrats who voted for the rescue Monday to abandon it. The bill doesn't designate a way to pay for many of the tax cuts, and Blue Dogs typically oppose any measure that swells the deficit.
"I'm concerned about that," said Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., the majority leader.
Raising the deposit insurance limit — along with the SEC's accounting change — helped House Republicans claim credit for some substantive changes. And with constituent feedback changing dramatically since Monday's shocking House defeat and the corresponding market plunge, lawmakers' comfort level with the package increased markedly.
Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., who voted "no" on Monday, said he was leaning toward switching, and Rep. Steve LaTourette,R-Ohio, said he was "getting there." Several others were weighing a flip, said Republican officials.
Leaders in both parties, as well as private economic chiefs everywhere, said Congress must quickly approve some version of the bailout measure to start loans flowing and stave off a potential national economic disaster.
"This is what we need to do right now to prevent the possibility of a crisis turning into a catastrophe," Obama said on the Senate floor. In Missouri, before flying to Washington to vote, McCain said, "If we fail to act, the gears of our economy will grind to a halt."
Critics on the right and left assailed the rescue plan, which has been panned by their constituents as a giveaway for Wall Street, and has little obvious direct benefit for ordinary Americans.
Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., a leading conservative, said the step was "leading us into the pit of socialism."
Sanders, a self-described socialist, said the rescue was fundamentally unfair.
Still, proponents argued that the financial sector's woes were already being felt by ordinary people in the form of unaffordable credit and underperforming retirement savings and without the bailout would soon translate into even more economic pain for working Americans, including more job losses.
"There will be no balloons or bunting or parades," when the rescue becomes law, said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman. But lawmakers will have "the knowledge that at one of our nation's moments of maximum economic peril, we acted — not for the benefit of a particular few, but for all Americans."
In addition to extending several tax breaks popular with businesses, the bill would keep the alternative minimum tax from hitting 20 million middle-income Americans and provide $8 billion in tax relief for those hit by natural disasters in the Midwest, Texas and Louisiana.
Tax cuts new and old are favorites for most House Republicans. Help for rural schools was aimed mainly at lawmakers in the West, while disaster aid was a top priority for lawmakers from across the Midwest and South.
Another addition, to extend the deductibility of state and local taxes for people in states without income taxes, helps Florida and Texas, among others.
Increasing the deposit insurance cap was a bid to reassure individuals and small businesses that their money would be safe if their banks collapsed. It was particularly geared toward small banks that fear customers will pull their money and park it in larger institutions seen as less likely to fold.
The FDIC would be allowed to borrow unlimited money from the Treasury Department through the end of next year as a way to cover the increased insurance limit. If used, it would be the first time the agency has tapped Treasury for a loan since the early 1990s.
The rescue bill hitched a ride on a popular measure that gives people with mental illness better health insurance coverage. Before passing it, senators voted by an identical 74-25 margin to attach the massive bailout and the tax breaks.(AP) Beirut, 02 Oct 08, 07:41

U.S. fears weapons sent to Lebanese military could be reaching Hizbullah
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2008/ss_lebanon0569_10_01.asp
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
WASHINGTON — Lebanon's president has appealed to President George W. Bush for additional military assistance amid U.S. concerns that Beirut is increasingly controlled by Hizbullah and its sponsors in Iran.
Officials said Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, a former chief of staff, has relayed a request to the Bush administration for hundreds of millions of dollars in weapons and military equipment. They said Lebanon has sought helicopters, armored personnel carriers, communications and other systems for border and internal security.
Officials said the administration has been concerned over the Hizbullah domination of the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. They said Hizbullah has infiltrated the Lebanese Army and military and was preventing a response to Syrian infiltration of Lebanon.
"The concern is that any weapons given to the army could be transferred to Hizbullah," the official said. "The truth is that Hizbullah has full control over the army and much of the security forces. We can't ignore that."
On Sept. 25, Suleiman met President George Bush in Washington and urged the United States to expand military and security cooperation. Suleiman said Lebanon was faced with internal and external threats.
"Mr. President, we are also here to affirm the need to liberate all Lebanese territories and also to make it clear that the future of Palestinian refugees is in their homeland, not in Lebanon," Suleiman said.
In 2008, the United States approved more than $230 million military and security aid to Lebanon. The administration has pledged to continue the aid despite the Hizbullah takeover of the Siniora government but has not committed to additional aid.
"Your statements impressed me and we're most impressed by the national dialogue that you're holding in an attempt to seek reconciliation," Bush said. "The United States is proud to stand by your side. Our mission is your mission: a country that is strong and capable, a country where people can make a peace."

Let the dissidents chalenge the jihadists
Dr. Walid Phares
http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=2477
01 Oct 2008
Prague, September 16, 2008
At the invitation of the Prague Security Studies Institute (PSSI), a think tank for international relations in the Czech Republic, Professor Walid Phares delivered a lecture, “Jihadist Strategies against Europe: Background, Projections and Options.” The event was co-sponsored by the Brussels-based European Foundation for Democracy, and the forum was attended by PSSI officers, diplomats and NGO members. Noting that under the forthcoming Czech Presidency, “the European Union can take perhaps more daring steps in recognizing the importance of the dissident segments of the Greater Middle East in the process of opposing totalitarian ideologies”, Phares underscored that terrorism combines security, political and economic consequences as it strikes against the international community. “The terror forces do not limit their actions to direct violence against hard targets, but they also incorporate political dividends and economic pressures to their strategies.” From his remarks we excerpt the following:
Central threat to democracies
“The main finding of the last 19 years since the Soviet collapse is that Jihadi-led terrorism has become a central threat to democracies worldwide. The debate among Jihadi Salafists since the Khartoum conferences in the early 1990s wasn’t between those who advocated violent Jihad as a concept and those who rejected it, as many experts in the West continue erroneously to affirm. The gist of that Jihadi debate was between two schools, as to which enemy to target and how.
Combat-Jihad (al Jihad al Qitali) is a tool, a weapon, not a sui generis doctrine by itself. As I advanced in my first post-9/11 book, Future Jihad, the realist school - the classical Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood - advocated a reserved attitude towards engaging the West militarily before being able to achieve strategic parity with the West. Unfortunately, a number of analyses in the West confused this strategic approach with an alleged commitment to non-violent means. Hence, we’ve had a very poor understanding of Jihadi penetration for more than one decade. Today we see the emergence of a similar understanding within the Western counterterrorism community, which argues that the classical Jihadists are philosophically non-violent, thus they can be partnered with liberal democracies against the philosophically violent Jihadis such as al Qaeda.
Such a fundamental mistake in analysis and understanding can affect national security doctrines in the West and lead them into more serious and erroneous assessments in the future: for the debate among Jihadis is not about the use of violence or not. It is about when to use it, against whom and under which conditions. If that level of analysis is missing in the West, then another decade may well be lost in unsuccessful and futile attempts to find the “good Jihadists” and enlist them against the “bad Jihadists.”
Jihadis split over strategies, not violence
The split within the Jihadist community is not about the philosophy of violence because Jihad is not only and always sheer military action. There are Jihadi goals to attain, and Jihadi “qital” (combat) is only one means to achieve these goals. The Salafists (Wahhabis or Muslim Brotherhood) can decide not to resort to Qital as long as they are making progress in changing the balance of power to their advantage. But as the balance is changing, they will move to the next stage and use all means at their disposal, including Jihadi Qital.
The analytical mistake committed by some in the CT community is to single out a “moment” in Jihadi strategy and think it is “the” Jihadi strategy. Hence we are witnessing the proliferation of academics’ and experts’ calls to “engage” with the non-violent Jihadis as if the latter were a category in itself. In fact, this is a truncated reading of the whole process of Jihadism. Worse, it is also a maneuver by the Jihadists in their war of ideas to ignite trends within the realm of their enemies (liberal democracies) which would actually slow down the process of containment. In short, what some call “engagement” is in fact a successful move on behalf of the long term Jihadist to obstruct the West and other democracies from moving forward in their own campaign.
Penetration of Europe
From that perspective and, in view of the comprehensive monitoring of the Jihadi movement as a whole (both realists and combat Salafists), Jihadi terrorism has become a central threat to democracies at large. But that threat is even more evident and menacing with regard to Europe, i.e., the countries who are members of the European Union. The networks, both ideological and militant, have had several decades of penetration on the continent. The most affected areas are naturally the former colonial countries such as France and Great Britain, but also Spain, Holland and Italy. Germany, Scandinavia and the Benelux also absorbed a Salafi presence towards the end of the Cold War. In the big picture, Western Europe has been the recipient of significant influence and networks of Islamists from several regions of the world, particularly from the Maghreb, sub-Indian continent, and the Levant.
Central Europe and now Eastern Europe are witnessing a progression in the penetration process. But in view of the nature of Communist control for decades, the Jihadists do not yet have strongholds in cities such as Prague, Warsaw, Bratislava, Budapest and beyond. From scanning the internet, however, one can see the steady expansion of Salafism, and to some extent Khomeinist influence, but mostly migrating from Western Europe. Eventually the networks will be extended from West to East, following the expansion of the European Union itself. But let’s note that an East-West Jihadi migration is also emanating from the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Wahhabi-funded groups from Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania, Chechnya and other spots are now landing in central Europe.
Another aspect of Jihadi penetration in Europe is the financial network expanding across the continent in terms of the “high finances” of Wahhabi-supported interests as well as the “low finances” of al Qaeda-type factions, both using European banking systems. The Iranian-Hezbollah financial web is also present and is detectable in Germany and Scandinavia.
Expertise’s failures
Current European expertise in counterterrorism is spending serious time and heavy funding on an attempt to understand the rise of this web of Jihadism, which is coined as the “radicalization factor.” Since the Madrid attacks in 2004, the European expert investigations have centered on the socio-economic and “root causes” of terrorism. But alternative findings, also emerging from European research, are increasingly demonstrating that the “non-Jihadi” root causes aren’t providing strategic answers. Rather, the expert advice provided to national governments and Europeans since 9/11 has failed to predict the rapid rise of the networks. Even more perturbing is that the advising process continues to push towards the “non-Jihadi” theories, even as they have collapsed critically.
Fr example, the classical school in counterterrorism alleges that the Jihadists do not have one overarching ideology across the continent, but separate and distinct doctrines related to local claims and demands. This claim has been shattered by the mountain of evidence that the grand doctrine –al Aqida al Jihadiya- is omnipresent from London’s enclaves to Marseilles’ suburbs and, more importantly, goes unchallenged on the internet.
Another example is the failure to understand the central core of the ideology, whose long range goals are not satisfied by political or socio-economic negotiations. The so-called disenfranchisement argument has also been shattered by the Jihadists themselves. One, their agenda rejects it; two, their social strata disprove it; and three, the direct causality between disenfranchisement and terrorism is simply not valid. Nevertheless, many advisors on Islamism continue to push a legless body of arguments, depriving decision-makers and the public from real solutions.
Ignoring who best to engage
On the other hand, the much-needed tactic of engaging counter-Jihadi Muslims and civil society groups in the Greater Middle East has been almost ignored by chanceries and their counterterrorism experts. Ironically, instead of focusing on engaging the dissidents, pro-democracy human rights NGOs and activists, the “advice” extended to European Governments and now to the United States as well, is to engage the Islamists, and even the Jihadists.
This tactic is the result of a systemic failure of understanding not only the Jihadist strategies and realities, but also the political sociology inside the Arab and Muslim world and the immigrant communities in the West and in Europe. Government policy makers were almost convinced by their senior advisers, themselves relying on academic and professional expertise that the road to de-radicalization goes through an engagement with the radicals, or those who are a little bit less radical. Hence the move – and the spending - to integrate the Muslim Brotherhood, Wahhabis and Khomeinists in a bilateral dialogue with law enforcement and higher political levels for a few years now.
Obviously, the issue is not about having or not having a dialogue with these Islamist factions. It is not about “talking.” It is really about hoping that these bilateral discussions will effectively lead to de-radicalization. Undoubtedly, these engagements aren’t leading to reversing the radicalization processes, and they never will. Law enforcement and intelligence reports are clear in proving that none of this thinking has led to a reverse of Jihadization, either in Europe or in the United States.
Counter Jihadists win
In contrast, findings show that the activities by counter-Jihadist Muslim groups and similar cadres are the leading factors to help resist the advance of radical mobilization. The equations I have tested for over twenty years are verifiable: every time Jihadists and counter-Jihadists engage in a battle of ideas, counter-Jihadists win. Every time Jihadists are alone on the scene, obviously, they win.
It is now imperative that a renewed debate about radicalization in Europe, particularly in light of an EU Czech Presidency for half a year, restructures the engagement process to include the democracy segments within Middle Eastern and Muslim communities on the continent. Czech and central European experience in dissidence-dynamics and counter totalitarian processes is a needed component in the wider European effort to contain the Salafist and Khomeinist ideological expansion.
I have suggested to the forthcoming Czech Presidency of the European Union to initiate a strategy on democracy support as one of the new policies needed to win the battle of de-radicalization. Engagement must remain a solid principle, but with whom to engage strategically is the real question. My thesis is that those who deserve systematic and relentless backing are those who in their communities are willing to fight for the shared values of democracy and humanism. All attempts to ignore them have led to strengthening the very forces which are spreading Jihadism. Europeans and Americans have a real choice ahead of them, they must not fail again.
**Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy. He is the author of The war of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy.

Beirut After More Than One Month of War
By JUSTIN VEL
Middle East Times
http://www.metimes.com/Opinion/2008/10/02/beirut_after_more_than_one_month_of_war/2684/
October 02, 2008
The repetitive and consistently sad nature of the Middle East conflict needs to be entered on the correct note. So, largely to amuse myself, I flew from Belgrade to Beirut one Friday the 13th and on the plane chanced to meet Sarah who was from the northern city of Tripoli who was returning to Lebanon for summer vacation from France, where she studied computer engineering.
"Lebanon is all safe," she said. "You don't have to worry. We occasionally have some shootings and explosions, but I don't think you'll have any of that now. Nobody will rob you. They are too concentrated on the shootings and explosions to do that. We do shootings and explosions in Lebanon. We have not started robbing people."
It was a recommendation only heard from a person used to living in a war zone. The post-traumatic stress that the Lebanese suffer was so intense that Sarah was actually applauding the fact that solo travelers carrying expensive cameras were not likely to be robbed because of how caught up potential thieves were with the shootings and explosions that frequently rocked their country.
Beirut deserved the good word however. The city, built along the Mediterranean, was modern and beautiful except for the southern suburbs which were the ramshackle cinderblock mess that compose slums in many developing nations, though in Lebanon they had the added repute of having been bombed by Israel during the July 2006 war.
The city was also empty. Beirut supposedly had a population of over 2 million, but the statistic did not match the number of people walking around or the number of cars on the streets. Many restaurants and shops were closed, the doors were locked and chairs and merchandise were stacked inside.
When asking about the lack of people, I was told Beirut was actually filling back up. Hezbollah had just ended its yearlong takeover of Downtown and Michel Suleiman, the head of the army and therefore a neutral figure, had been appointed president after an 18-month deadlock between the pro-West government and the pro-Syrian opposition that Hezbollah was a part of.
Hezbollah, the Shiite militia was suddenly becoming one of the most self-confident forces in the Middle East. They could claim to have defeated Israel's July 2006 attempt to wipe them out and last May easily took over West Beirut, cementing their position as Lebanon's most powerful armed force. The army, fearing being split along ethnic lines, had refused to act.
Clearly, it was Hezbollah who were the people to talk to in Lebanon. I went to Qana, one of the last towns before the border with Israel and, accidentally, met Hezbollah Man #1 in a restaurant off the highway.
He didn't want to give his name and sat shoveling food onto my plate and closely watching me chew, as if deciding how well I was enjoying the meal he'd insisted on buying me. When I had eaten the last of the food he nodded and assented to questions.
"Who is Hezbollah?" I asked.
"Hezbollah is all the people of my house," he said. "They are defending their lands, the farmers, and the houses. They are not terrorists. They are the party that defends Lebanon when the government can't anymore. The government is not qualified. The government can't defend Lebanon. Hezbollah is everyone."
He went onto say that Hezbollah could make peace with Jews, but not Zionists and that Hezbollah would only turn in their guns when they were "sure of real peace." Then he handed me a piece of gum and I went off to Sidon for an arranged meeting with Hezbollah Man #2.
Along the way I stopped in Qana and visited the place were in 1996 Israeli shelling had killed 106 people at a U.N. compound during an operation called "Grapes of Wrath." True to the frustrating nature of history, repetition, the 1996 massacre was followed during the July 2006 war by the bombing of a home just outside of Qana that killed 28 people in an event that became known as the "Second Qana Massacre." Near to where the bombs hit I met one of the survivors who, when I asked if she supported Hezbollah, said, "Of course. If this happened to you, you would go with the devil himself to get back."
In Sidon, Hezbollah Man #2 said, "If you understand Hezbollah, you understand Lebanon. You cannot take Hezbollah out from the structure of this country."
Looking at me with a progressively larger sneer he began some punditry. He believed the British had divided Greater Syria with the Sykes-Picot agreement in order for Israel to exist surrounded by weak states.
"The role of the U.S. is changing," he added. "They are trying to control the Middle East through Lebanon. We are an easy country to find an excuse to manipulate because of Hezbollah and the people being united behind them. Hezbollah stood up to Israel."
As it is with the majority of the conflicts in the region, the root cause of the Israeli-Lebanese war is the very existence of Israel. The two countries have officially been at war since 1948 and only show signs of furthering their antagonisms. Responding to attacks carried out by Palestinian militants launched from southern Lebanon, Israel invaded Lebanon in 1977 and 1982 and then again in 2006, when Hezbollah carried out its now infamous kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers during a cross border attack.
Both Hezbollah Man #1, who said he was a fighter and Hezbollah Man #2, who said he worked in the organization's social services division, believed Hezbollah to be defending Lebanon from an imposed threat and kept repeating, "You would do the same in our position."
Five weeks later, after traveling through Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, I arrived in Israel.
It was a return to the West. Where in Arab countries there would be cinderblock villages sitting on the sides of hills, here the houses looked similar to the houses in American suburbs, big buildings that were surrounded by trees with planned and well constructed roads leading to them. Women walked around in tank tops and shorts. Signs advertising the option of buying alcohol were once again everywhere.
The suburban feel was punctured somewhat by all the guns. Eighteen-year-old soldiers walked around with rifles. Some were patrolling or guarding buildings. Most were either hanging around in groups or traveling home on weekend leave. The soldiers carried the rifles slung low across their backs, in a way similar to how rock stars sling guitars around themselves. The security guards at malls and cafes, and even some random people walking around, also were armed. "Israelis aren't sure when they'll run into the next Arab terrorist," one person told me.
The fears were valid. A few weeks later a 19-year-old Palestinian man rammed a car into a group of soldiers walking in Jerusalem. Fifteen were injured by the time they shot and killed him.
Israel had been created after the majority of the international community acknowledged the long history of Jewish persecution and need for a Jewish homeland. Many of the people I met in Jerusalem, especially in the Orthodox community, had been born in the United States or Europe and had immigrated to Israel in search of a place they belonged.
"I was born and bred Jewish. My parents always told me Hashem was going to bring us back to the holy land, that the people were already going. Now I'm here and it's great," said an American named Josh who had come to Israel two and half years ago.
Raised in Kentucky, Josh had owned 300 acres of land, two trucks, and two motorcycles, but said he was never interested in the materialism of the United States and had sold it all to move to Israel. He never felt he fit with the rest of America and was routinely hassled by the police for his beard and long hair.
"Everyone was Christian or from a Christian background. They would be like, 'You're a Jew. You killed Jesus.' I'd be like, 'What?'"
When I arrived in Shorashim, a village about 60 miles from the border with Lebanon, Steve Judah and his son Alex were pulling branches from their backyard out to the road.
"We're making a bomb shelter," Steve said.
During the July 2006 war Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets into northern Israel. Many fell near Shorashim, one rocket landing just 100 meters from the Judah's house.
While eating dinner one night Steve said, "You see the beam across the ceiling? That's the strongest beam in the house. We get under that when the rockets start and put our backs against the wall and wait. First there is a siren and then about 15 minutes later the rockets start hitting. When they hit they make big booms and everything shakes."
"Hezbollah is back and rearming," said Sophie, Steve's wife. "They're getting back into their bunkers stronger than ever."
"It's an unfriendly neighborhood," Steve said.
Shorashim was founded in 1982 as a socialist moshav for immigrants from the United States, and though the community had since lost most of its socialist tendencies the village still largely economically self-sustained from a series of businesses set up by its residents.
A fence and electronic gate had been built around the village after children from the nearby Muslim village of Shaab had been caught stealing bikes and toys.
There was not now much communication between the two villages, but Steve told me that when Shorashim had been founded residents of Shaab had actually sent a delegation to welcome the newcomers to the area. A joint children's daycare center had been set up and Steve's brother had served for a time as the "official communicator" between the two villages.
The daycare eventually closed however because of a lack of funding and today the two villages largely did not interact.
When I asked more about Shaab, Steve said the inhabitants of the village had actually been Jewish until a Muslim invasion in the 7th century.
"Mohammad preached expansionism and forced conversion," he said. "His initial followers were tough, warlike people and Islam spread fast. They made it all the way into Spain."
"Now they've made it to France," Alex said in reference to Paris's predominantly Muslim suburbs.
"Yes, now they're in France," Steve said.
Sophie said she was worried about a nuclear attack from Iran.
"A bomb shelter wouldn't do much against that, but then I suppose you really wouldn't have to worry about much anyway then," Steve said.
Did they expect another confrontation with Hezbollah? I asked.
"Yes," Steve said. "You know what they say when you're watching a play. If there is a gun right there on the mantel in the first act then it's going to be used by the last."
The bordering of Israel and Lebanon has created a death trap that individuals on both sides are unapologetic for. The Lebanese are sure of the imposition and aggression of Israel and Israelis are sure of their right to exist and protect themselves. In each case there is enough truth that an end to the conflict, as it is with seemingly all the Middle East conflicts, is not around the corner. Peace can't even be spoken of.
**Justin Vela is a photographer based in Olympia, Washington.

Iran’s Other Weapon
From the Nov/Dec 2008
Trumpet Print Edition »
Its nuclear project makes headlines, but Iran has another deadly weapon ready to go right now.
By Richard Palmer
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei openly says his nation wants a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. In fact, one of Iran’s long-held goals is to capture that capital city—considered one of the holiest among Muslims.
Intelligence analyst Joseph de Courcy wrote in the Islamic Affairs Analyst several years ago, “Subscribers should be in absolutely no doubt about this. From Iran’s support for subversion in Bahrain, through its improving ties with Egypt, its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Islamist revolutionaries in Khartoum, to its close strategic alliance with Moscow, everything has the same ultimate purpose: the liberation of Jerusalem from under the Zionist yoke.”
Jerusalem is Iran’s ultimate goal. Hezbollah’s purpose is to help Iran reach it.
Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah has a long history of attacks against Western targets, including the two bombings of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in 1983 and 1984, and the October 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks. Today, Hezbollah is more powerful than ever, according to Fred Burton, the former deputy chief of the State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service counterterrorism division. In fact, he says this terrorist group’s international capabilities are greater than al Qaeda’s ever were. “[T]hanks to Iran, Hezbollah has far more—and better-trained—operational cadre than al Qaeda ever had. … Iranian state sponsorship provides Hezbollah with a support network that al Qaeda can only dream of,” he wrote (Stratfor, Oct. 31, 2007).
Many now admit that much of al Qaeda’s success lay in its broad connections with sundry state governments. But where al Qaeda is—or was—tied to these nations, Hezbollah is welded to its state backer: Iran, one of the West’s worst enemies.
“Iran is Hezbollah’s real strategic partner,” Dr. Jonathan Spyer, senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, told the Trumpet recently. Many of the men in charge of Hezbollah have been trained in Iran. They share the Iranians’ radical ideology. Iran funds them. It gives them their weapons. Nothing big happens in Hezbollah’s world without the group first running the plan past Iran’s grand ayatollah, Spyer said. “[U]ltimately Hezbollah is only possible because of Iranian support; Iranian support is key.”
If Iran is attacked, it can use Hezbollah in retaliation. “If there is going to be an attack against Iran, even if the United States isn’t involved, if it’s just done by Israel, I think Iran will try to attack U.S. interests in the region, if not directly, then through their proxies,” Meir Javedanfar, author of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran, said. “They will want to make Israel a very, very expensive liability for the U.S.”
According to Spyer, Hezbollah used help from the Iranian Embassy for its attack on the Jewish Community Center in Argentina. The Hezbollah-Iran relationship works both ways: Iran can use Hezbollah against the West, and Hezbollah can use state-level assets, including Iranian intelligence and embassies, to increase its power and terror.
Hezbollah’s international abilities are a formidable terrorist weapon Iran can use in its foreign-policy objectives. And its home base and stronghold in Lebanon, just across Israel’s northern border, provides an ideal launching pad for the chief among these objectives: sacking Jerusalem.
Khamenei has made it clear that Hezbollah has an important role in the capture of the capital city. Kayhan, a newspaper with close ties to Khamenei, gloated over Hezbollah’s success in the Second Lebanon War. In its 2006 Quds (Jerusalem) Day edition, it wrote, “In the 33-day war, the Lebanese Hezbollah destroyed at least 50 percent of Israel [and therefore] half the path to the liberation of Jerusalem.” Iran sees Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon as clearing the road to Jerusalem. Hezbollah shares these views; it too wants to “liberate” Jerusalem.
Since the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah has been rebuilding and rearming. After the war, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon was notionally there to prevent that from happening—but unfortunately for Israel, it hasn’t done its job. As a result, right under the UN’s nose, Hezbollah has more than recovered its prewar strength.
Radical Islam lusts after Jerusalem, and it will soon make a grab for it, Bible prophecy indicates. The Bible says that radical Islam will in fact violently conquer half of the city. Jerusalem will be the trigger for the worst war in history.
Yet Jerusalem has a future unlike anywhere else. Though it will soon be the flashpoint for the world’s greatest suffering, soon after it will become the seed of the world’s greatest hope. It will be the location from which Christ will rule the Earth, and eventually, from which God Himself will rule the universe! There is no city on Earth like it.
For a dire warning—and for unparalleled hope in the ultimate future—watch Jerusalem.
For more information, request a free copy of Jerusalem in Prophecy. •

Syria: The Player or the Game
02/10/2008
By Mshari Al-Zaydi/Asharq Al-Awsat
So far the identities of those behind the recent car bomb in Damascus which resulted in the deaths of 17 people are unknown.
The Syrian Interior Minister said it was a terrorist act and, undoubtedly, it was indeed a terrorist act. The Syrian [Arab] News Agency [SANA] announced that whoever perpetrated the bombing is a member of a takfiri [the ideas embraced by those that hold other Muslims to be infidels] organization.
As usual, several Syrian journalists rushed to accuse Israel because it is not happy with Syria's rapprochement with France and the West. These journalists forgot or intentionally ignored the fact that the reason for Syria's rapprochement with France or the West - if we may use this categorization - is because it has started negotiations with Israel. So why would Israel be angry at a course that it started?
However, this is the traditional, silly, and ready-made accusation that is acceptable to the Arab recipient.
Even after the Syrian announcement accusing the so-called takfiris, there are three serious possibilities related to the bombing of the International Airport Road on the Al-Sayyidah Zaynab intersection:
The act could have been perpetrated by Al-Qaeda and jihadist salafi currents in general; or it could have been perpetrated by pro-Iranian parties because Iran is worried about Syria's openness on the West and on Israel and worried about the cost of this openness and its impact on Iran; or the bombing could be the result of internal settling of scores among the security organs as has happened several times in the past.
The prioritization of these possibilities is, as noted above, Sunni jihadist fundamentalists or Iran or the internal security organs.
In the following article, we shall pause a little at the first likelihood first because of its strength and soundness over the other possibilities and second, because of the shortage of space in dealing with the other two possibilities.
Regarding Al-Qaeda's possible involvement in this operation, we have several indications that we should not overlook. The relationship between the political and security regime in Syria with the Sunni jihadist currents is a strange and complex one. It is not a secret to any observer that the Syrian regime has been generous with the Al-Qaeda fighters that sneak into Iraq under the guise of the resistance. These fighters later joined fighting fundamentalist groups in Iraq under the command of [Abu-Musab] Al-Zarqawi or other Al-Qaeda commanders in Iraq. Many of those that have been handed over to Saudi Arabia and other countries have confessed that Syria had been a welcoming and rest station and a gathering point for those going to or returning from Iraq. A report published in the British newspaper The Guardian on 22 May 2007 and attributed to a military US source says: "About 80% to 90% of the foreign jihadist fighters in Iraq enter through Syria".
Naturally, Syrian officials continued to deny that Syria is involved in smuggling fighters to Iraq or even that it is closing its eyes to this fact. This is normal. Official Syria is not expected to admit this but the question that was always posed was: How could the fighters reach Iraq through Syria without the knowledge of the Syrian intelligence service that is notorious for exploiting all its senses to follow up on every whisper or hint that may disrupt the serenity of the regime? How could dozens or rather hundreds of entering and exiting fighters and suicidal bombers romp freely in the towns, neighborhoods and roads of Syria?

Even if we forget the above, how could a person like Abu-al-Qa'qa al-Suri or Mahmud Aghasi openly and publicly deliver resonating sermons in the mosques of Aleppo urging the youth to go and fight in Iraq and to actually send such youths there as he moved around in his robe and long beard? His sermons vie with those of Al-Zawahiri and are posted on the Internet. How could such a person move around so freely and with such agility? Was this a sign of the democracy of the regime and its patient acceptance of all viewpoints? Or was it an illicit collusion with Al-Qaeda along the lines of the common saying "I did not order it and it did not hurt me" even if it was said that Abu-al-Qa'qa was a mere tool that was cut off when its role was done. The man was killed in broad daylight in front of his mosque in Aleppo around the end of September 2007.

Perhaps the Syrian regime fell - as others have - in the famous illusion that they can toy with the terrorist fundamentalist bear at the beginning of the day and then get rid of it or put it back in its cage at the end of the day! This is an illusion that is repeated and always repeated in the Middle East region. No side wants to learn from the experience of others. Toying with religion and attempting to revolutionize religion or some of its aspects and then trying to benefit from this revolution on the political level without any repercussions or consequences is the biggest illusion of all. It is the first and last mistake because if you commit this mistake once it would be fatal and there will be no second time!

The regime saw with its own eyes the prelude of this fundamentalist agitation in the past few years. In June 2005, the Syrian Interior Ministry announced the dismantling of a terrorist cell that called itself "The Jund al-Sham" organization. This organization had prepared a scheme to carry out several attacks on several targets in Damascus and its outskirts, most prominently the Palace of Justice.
At this point, perhaps it is worth noting that Shakir al-Absi, the commander of the fundamentalist Fatah al-Islam group that clashed with the Lebanese army in the battles of the Nahr al-Barid [Palestinian refugee] camp used to travel around Syria merrily and with total freedom. He comes from Fatah-al-Intifadah that is run from Damascus by Khalid al-Umlah. The regime should also keep in mind that "Bilad al-Sham" [Greater Syria] that comprises most of Syria's territory is a strategic goal that should be reached in Al-Qaeda's imagination and thinking. "Bilad al-Sham" is the "Land of al-Ribat" that is blessed land and that was the center of the Umayyad Caliphate. It is the cradle of the Sunnis and the birthplace of Ibn Taymiyah, the symbol of symbols of the salafi currents. It is a land neighboring Jerusalem and, finally, it - that is Syria - is ruled by a sectarian and secular regime - according to the salafi fundamentalist currents - that should be fought. The fight against Syria is in the discourse of Abu-Musab al-Suri and others like him and it is the advice that Ayman al-Zawahiri gave to Al-Zarqawi before he was killed when he reminded him that the battle is not only in Iraq but in Greater Syria as well.
Some people say that President Bashar al-Assad is aware of this fundamentalist danger on him and that is why he deployed his troops toward Tripoli where the Sunni cauldron is seething. According to an analysis published in yesterday's Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar - that is close to Hezbollah and Syria - Bashar al-Assad has received the blessings of France, Turkey, the West, and those behind them to strike at these salafi currents. However, the adversaries of the Syrian regime in Lebanon argue that this is no more than instigation and a theatrical by Syria to fabricate an excuse to return to Lebanon anew, this time from the gateway of the fundamentalist peril that Al-Qaeda poses.
At any rate, the other two likelihoods that we said we would not discuss at length - the possibility of Iranian involvement through its cells that are planted inside the [Syrian security] organs or the possibility of internal settling of scores - have not yet disclosed to us all the names of the killed or the names of important people that were inside the security building that is close to the scene of the explosion. These two possibilities should not be ignored. Perhaps the target was a particular officer that knows some dangerous secrets - as was the case with Ghazi Kanan and Muhammad Suleiman - or perhaps the goal of the operation was to send a hot message from Iran from under the table to the one residing in the People's Palace in Damascus that maneuvering has limits and distancing from Tehran comes at a price and what a price!
Whether it was Al-Qaeda or the intelligence services of Tehran or the bears of the security regime [in Syria], the lesson that should be deduced by the decision-makers in Damascus that the time of calm has passed and that the fire that raged outside - whose flames and flying sparks pleased the regime - are now touching the hems of the Damascene robes. The most dangerous thing that the regime should fear is whether this fire is feeding on sectarian fuel.

Stability in Lebanon Threatened, Again
By David Schenker
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2932
PolicyWatch #1406
October 2, 2008
This past Monday, a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) transport was targeted by a car bomb that killed five soldiers and wounded twenty-five others. The strike was the third on the LAF since June and occurred in the increasingly violent northern Lebanon. In fact, violence in and around Tripoli, the largest city in the north, is now becoming routine. This explosive situation threatens the country's already fragile stability, while providing Syria an opportunity to loosen the pro-Western ruling coalition's tenuous hold on power.
Recent Violence
In May, the Lebanese government made the unprecedented decision to curtail Hizballah's control over Beirut airport and to dismantle the Shiite militia's telecommunications network. Hizballah, a Syrian- and Iranian-backed militia, demanded the government reverse the decision. When it refused, the organization mobilized its forces to take control of Beirut.
Sunni-Alawite fighting. Images of Hizballah manhandling March 14–aligned Sunni Muslims in the capital enraged Lebanon's Sunnis, sparking reprisal attacks against the Shiite organization's Syrian-backed allies in the Alawite community in the north. The Syrian government is dominated by that country's Alawite minority and has close ties with the community in Lebanon. Sunni Muslims, some of whom are religiously conservative Salafists -- reportedly backed by Saudi Arabia, where Salafism is the government-sanctioned school of Islam -- attacked the headquarters of the Syrian Socialist Party and other opposition strongholds in and around Tripoli. (In this complicated situation, still other Sunni militants are supported by Syria.) After nine people were killed on June 23, the LAF was deployed to quell the hostilities. Fighting was temporarily halted, but the LAF had to be redeployed in July when violence resumed.
On August 13, a bus bomb in Tripoli killed fifteen people, including ten LAF soldiers. On September 8, political leaders from northern Lebanon signed an agreement -- brokered by March 14 leader Saad Hariri -- which brought a respite from the violence until this week's attack.
Lebanese Forces-Marada killings. A few weeks after the August 13 attack, members of the March 14-allied Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) clashed with pro-Syrian Christian Marada party members near Tripoli. Skirmishes centered on an LF rally slated to be held adjacent to Marada party headquarters; in the resulting violence, Yousef Franjiyeh, head of the party's office in Bsarma, was killed. At a press conference on September 17, Marada party head Suleiman Franjiyeh accused LF leader Samir Geagea and LF parliament member Farid Habib of complicity in the killing and demanded to hear results of the investigation "within fifteen days."
Heightened Concerns about Syria
The fighting in northern Lebanon raises concerns that the conflict may escalate and broaden, bringing Lebanon once again to the brink of civil war. For March 14, reports that the Alawite Syrian regime was arming its Lebanese co-religionists resembled what happened in May 2007 when the Syrian-backed al-Qaeda affiliate, Fatah Islam, beheaded twenty-five LAF officers, touching off a four-month battle in the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp near Tripoli. More troubling, however, were statements from Damascus that continued fighting in north Lebanon threatened Syrian interests. Lebanese government officials were particularly incensed by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's comments on September 4 about the "fragile" security situation in the north, which he attributed to "foreign-backed [Saudi] extremism." As March 14 leader Walid Jumblatt described, "al-Asad is linking Syrian security and the situation in north Lebanon. He has used it as a new pretext to interfere in Lebanese affairs."
On September 22, the eve of Lebanese president Michel Suleiman's visit to Washington, several Lebanese networks reported Syrian troops massing on the border, a move portrayed as a measure to defend Syria against Lebanese Salafists. Less than a week later, on September 27, in the most brazen terrorist attack on Syrian soil since the 1980s, a massive car bomb exploded in Damascus.
Predictably, the Syrian government has attributed the Damascus attack to "Sunni fundamentalists" -- i.e., al-Qaeda. Given the opaque nature of Syria, the Asad regime's longstanding support for terrorists, and the government's propensity for killing its own citizens, this attribution is far from certain. For instance, the Syrians are suspected in several local political murders, including former Syrian viceroy of Lebanon Ghazi Kenaan. He is believed to have been killed because he knew too much about the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri -- a crime for which Syria is the leading suspect -- and, more recently, the killing of Muhammad Suleiman, who was in charge of Syria's nuclear program.
At the same time, it would not be surprising if Sunni fundamentalists were able to carry out operations in Syria. Since 2003, the Asad regime has assisted al-Qaeda members by facilitating their travel across Syrian territory into Iraq and, according to U.S. Central Command, has allowed the organization to train on its territory. It has also facilitated the movement of Sunni militants into Lebanon and reportedly Jordan. Through these actions, Damascus allowed Salafist presence on its territory, leaving itself vulnerable to attacks.
Little Prospect for Progress in the National Dialogue
On September 16, Lebanese leaders convened for a national dialogue session at Baabda presidential palace, under the auspices of President Suleiman. The top item on the agenda was the national defense strategy, i.e., what role Hizballah's military force should play in Lebanon. The issue has been at the top of a long list of controversial topics since Hizballah unilaterally launched a cross-border raid in July 2006, bringing Lebanon into war with Israel.
More recently, the issue of a national defense regained prominence due to what appeared to be a case of mistaken identity. On August 28, a Hizballah fighter in south Lebanon opened fire on a LAF helicopter, killing the pilot. The killer, who said he believed the helicopter was Israeli, was turned over by Hizballah to Lebanese authorities. During an early-September television appearance, Hizballah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah called the incident "regrettable" -- though noting that the shooter was behaving "naturally or instinctively" -- and issued condolences to the family of the LAF "martyr."
The helicopter incident and Hizballah's 2006 raid into Israel highlight the necessity for a national defense strategy. Beirut does not exert sovereignty over Lebanon, nor will it until Hizballah's weapons are under the authority of the state. During his inaugural speech on May 26, Suleiman laid out a formula making the LAF the primary defender of Lebanon, but also noting that the Army would "benefit from the capabilities of the resistance in the service of the national defense strategy." It is unclear, however, how the president intends to make this contorted plan a reality. Regardless, given Hizballah's longstanding aversion to relinquishing any operational freedom to the state, there is little indication that the dialogue on national defense will produce a solution under which the Lebanese government controls the country -- in fact as well as in name.
Conclusion
For the immediate future, violence in the north and against the LAF will remain a challenge to the country's stability. The national dialogue may serve to calm some prevailing local tensions, but it is unlikely to resolve key points of contention between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. Meanwhile, if the Asad regime remains true to form, Damascus will leverage the situation to weaken its pro-West enemies in Beirut. The Sunni problem in north Lebanon, which has been fueled at least in part by Syria, undermines the central Sunni component of the March 14 coalition to the benefit of Hizballah. As the spring 2009 Lebanese elections approach, it is a trend that does not bode well for Washington and its allies in Beirut.
**David Schenker is director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.