LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 06/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 6,16-21. When it was evening, his disciples went down to the sea,
embarked in a boat, and went across the sea to Capernaum. It had already grown dark, and Jesus had not yet come to them.
The sea was stirred up because a strong wind was blowing. When they had rowed about three or four miles, they saw Jesus walking on the sea and coming near the boat, and they began to be afraid. But he said to them, "It is I. Do not be afraid." They wanted to take him into the boat, but the boat immediately arrived at the shore to which they were heading

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Will Media Escalation Lead to an Unexpected War in the Region?By: Raghida Dergham 05/04/08
Can Lebanon's politicians possibly be as obtuse as they seem? The Daily Star 05/04/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 05/08
Cluster Bombs Kill 40 wound 252-Naharnet
Geagea: Suleiman's Retirement Wouldn't Affect His Nomination-Naharnet
Iran for Narrowing the Gap separating Lebanese Leaders-Naharnet
Rizk: International Tribunal Wouldn't Target Regimes
-Naharnet
Geagea dismisses call for dialogue as diversion-Daily Star
Franjieh compares Sfeir's role to clerical rule in Iran-Daily Star
Gemmayzeh night spots reminded of legal bed-time.-Daily Star
Israel moves to beef up airline security amid fears of revenge attack-Daily Star
Israel Notified UNIFIL of Non-Hostile Maneuver-Naharnet
MP Bazzi lauds Berri's dialogue proposal-Daily Star
Qabalan urges Lebanese to abandon differences-Daily Star
Sayyed urges UN to clarify ambiguity around detention-Daily Star
EU ambassador paints Lebanon as reform laggard-Daily Star
Qandil suggests interim government under Suleiman-Daily Star
National Bloc concerned by 'Palestinian infiltration-Daily Star
Nearly 300 people killed or wounded by unexploded ordnance in South since 2006-Daily Star
Group aims to help Environmental Studies graduates find jobs-Daily Star
AUB hosts lecture on preventing cervical cancer-Daily Star
Expert invites new look at secularization in region-Daily Star
Celebratory gunfire takes heavy toll of Lebanese-Daily Star
Opposition Sets New Demand, Majority Warns against Overstepping Arab Initiative-Naharnet
Wolf: Security Council Preparing 'Something' on Lebanon
-Naharnet
Generals Held in Hariri Killing File International Lawsuit against Mehlis, Mirza, Eid, Saqr
-Naharnet
Assad's Plan after Summit … Three Nos
-Naharnet
U.N. Hariri Probe Digging Up Evidence on Criminal Network
-Naharnet
Aoun Hints at Regional, Foreign Policy Shift
-Naharnet
Israel Reinforces Flight Security for Fear of Hizbullah Attack
-Naharnet
Berri: Resumption of Dialogue Hinges on Majority's Consent
-Naharnet
Muallem for Syrian-Saudi Cooperation to Solve Lebanese Crisis
-Naharnet
Fatfat for Appointing Six New State Ministers
-Naharnet
Qabbani Rejects Berri-Sponsored Dialogue
-Naharnet
Israel: Hizbullah Will Not Avenge Mughniyeh Killing
-Naharnet
Celebratory Gunfire Shatters Lives
-Naharnet

Cluster Bombs Kill 40, Wound 252
Naharnet/Forty people have been killed and 252 wounded by Israeli cluster bombs dropped during the 2006 war in Lebanon, the U.N. de-mining organization said on Friday. "Twenty-seven civilians have been killed and 218 wounded by the explosion of these devices since the end of the war on August 14, 2006," said Mine Action Coordination Center spokeswoman Dahlia Farran, adding that "the majority of the wounded have been permanently disabled."
"Among de-mining personnel, 13 people have been killed and 34 wounded, including Lebanese soldiers and members of international organizations and the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon," she added. Farran said that so far de-miners had managed to clear 42 percent of the estimated 39 million square meters (420 million square feet) of south Lebanon that had been littered with cluster bomb sub-munitions. The munitions dropped by Israel during its devastating air war against Lebanon in 2006 included at least a million cluster bomblets, according to the United Nations(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 21:09

Franjieh compares Sfeir's role to clerical rule in Iran
By Anthony Elghossain -Daily Star staff
Saturday, April 05, 2008
BEIRUT: Marada Movement chief and former Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh has warned that Israel, Syria and the United States will all suffer the consequences of any attack against the opposition. In an interview with the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation television on Thursday, Franjieh added that the Taif Accord that ended the Civil War has diminished the role of Lebanese Christians, while increasing the influence of the Sunni and Shiite communities.
Franjieh also charged that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora desires the naturalization of Palestinians in Lebanon, adding that "the Future Movement has been absorbing the Christian role [in Lebanon] since the Taif Accord."
While accusing Saudi Arabia of attempting to absorb Lebanon into its orbit after the withdrawal of Syrian troops in 2005, Franjieh also called for an international investigation of the Syrian presence in Lebanon in order to determine the main beneficiaries from overt Syrian involvement in Lebanese affairs.
Discussing the political dispute regarding the Lebanese presidency, which has become intertwined with debate over the next electoral law, Franjieh said, "Our [the opposition's] preferred candidate for the presidency is MP Michel Aoun, but [Lebanese Armed Forces commander] General Michel Suleiman is still the consensus candidate. General Suleiman has said that he has no problem with adopting the 1960 electoral law ... and we desire a president who sticks to his beliefs and is active in pursuing them."
Franjieh said he would acquiesce to presidential elections if the 1960 law were passed in a parliamentary session prior to voting on a president, stressing the importance of controlling one-third of the cabinet posts for decisions of significant importance to the national interest.
Franjieh also stirred controversy by comparing the role of of Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir to the "rule of the jurisprudent" model in Iran, arguing that pro-government factions claiming fears of the establishment of such a model by Hizbullah were ignoring "that the patriarch is becoming like [Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei."
On Friday, Youth and Sports Minister Ahmad Fatfat responded by saying that the Marada chief's statements regarding the Syrian presence in Lebanon more accurately described his own previous positions and "were not worthy of response."
March 14 MP Butros Harb also responded to Franjieh's comments, saying that he supported the proposed packaging of the presidential election with an electoral law decision, despite the fact that such a linkage is technically unconstitutional (Parliament may only convene for the purpose of electing a president if there is a vacuum), because he considers it "a step toward a solution to the crisis." The presidency has remained vacant since November 23, and the government is currently functioning without the formal participation of opposition ministers. Pro-government and opposition factions have agreed, in principle, to the election of Suleiman as president but have continued to disagree over government composition and the next electoral law

Rizk: International Tribunal Wouldn't Target Regimes

Naharnet/Justice Minister Charles Rizk said Friday the international tribunal would be a judicial body "not a political tool targeting this regime or that."
Rizk, talking to reporters after meeting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, was apparently responding to charges that the tribunal would be used to threaten Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime that had been blamed for ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's 2005 assassination, which the international body would look into.
Syria has denied involvement in the crime and said it would not cooperate with the international tribunal. Rizk said he discussed with Berri latest developments and the headlines of an Arab tour that the speaker plans to launch in an effort to rally support for a new initiative aimed at patching up differences between leaders of the majority and opposition. "He (Berri) did not brief me on details of his tour because the plan is still in the making. We hope he would succeed in his effort … to facilitate election of a president," Rizk added. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 18:11

Geagea: Suleiman's Retirement Wouldn't Affect His Nomination for President

Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Friday Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman is trying to "exert pressure on all parties."
Geagea was commenting on a recent statement by Suleiman that he would seek early retirement as of August and would lose interest in running for the presidency if bickering among the various factions persisted. "I understand his stand and I would have done the same," Geagea added.
Geagea made the remarks to reporters after receiving Egypt's Ambassador to Lebanon Ahmed al-Bedewi. He said after retirement, Gen. Suleiman "would remain a presidential candidate whose election wouldn't require constitutional amendment."Asked to comment on Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's approach to launch national dialogue, Geagea said: "The first step to restore political activity is the election of a new president."Geagea said the 1960 general elections law "is much better than the present law, but we are looking for even a better law."He said Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun and Hizbullah have not outlined their stand on the election law. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 19:36

Israel moves to beef up airline security amid fears of revenge attack
Flights will have more air marshals
Compiled by Daily Star staff -Saturday, April 05, 2008
Security has been stepped up on overseas Israeli flights, for fear of a revenge attack over the assassination of a Hizbullah commander, security officials say. Israel has denied responsibility for the February 12 car bombing that killed Hizbullah's Imad Mughniyeh. But Hizbullah and its Iranian backers have blamed Israel, and Hizbullah has vowed revenge. The number of air marshals on Israeli planes servicing certain destinations has been increased, and more security personnelProtection-Firms-for-Executives have been assigned to surround aircraft before takeoff and on landing, officials said. Some flights in Europe and Southeast Asia are escorted by helicopters upon takeoff and landing, they added. The beefed-up security applies to flights of El Al Israel Airlines, Arkia and Israir. The new precautions were reported Friday in Israel's Yediot Ahronot newspaper and confirmed by security officials. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss security procedures.
No Israeli passenger planes, however, have been equipped yet with missile-deflecting systems, the daily said, though there are plans to install them on some commercial aircraft. In 2002, Islamic militants launched shoulder-fired missiles at an Israeli passenger jet outside Mombasa, Kenya. The rockets missed, but spurred Israel to find a way to protect its airliners with a defense system similar to that used by its air force.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Hizbullah earlier this week against taking any revenge measures for the killing of Mughniyeh.
"I wouldn't recommend that anyone provoke us," Barak told soldiers during a tour of the northern border. "Hizbullah is becoming stronger and so are we. The Israeli military is prepared for all eventualities; we watch the pastoral calm and we know that other things are seething beneath the surface."
Hizbullah official in South Lebanon Sheikh Nabil Qaouk said that the resistance did not fear Israeli maneuvers or threats. "However, we take them seriously," he said. Qaouk also said the military maneuvers the Israeli government described as the biggest in the country's history only reflect its weakness and frustrations since its defeat in its summer 2006 war on Lebanon. "The Israeli government approved of installing sirens all over Israeli towns and villages, which means that it is no longer able to even secure the central part of the country," he added. "The tutelage party in Lebanon does not make decisions anymore but waits for United States signals. As long as the US wants the prolongation of the crisis, it does not want an inter-Arab and inter-Lebanese solution. It wants adventures and wars in Lebanon to compensate for Bush's failure in Iraq," Qaouk added. - The Daily Star, with AP

National Bloc concerned by 'Palestinian infiltration'
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Daily Star: BEIRUT: The National Bloc said Friday that information that the Syrian Army was moving along the Lebanese border and helping pro-Syrian Palestinian militants infiltrate the country was "an alarming indication and requires diplomatic and political measures on the domestic and international levels." "Is a US warship sitting 100 kilometers off the Lebanese coast worth all the opposition's attention?" a statement from the party asked. "Is the amassing of three military battalions on the Syrian-Lebanese border a normal measure? The silence over these developments reaches the level of complicity, if nothing else," the statement added. It added that MP Michel Aoun's "defense" of Syrian President Bashar Assad was proof of Aoun's deep involvement with the Syrians. "Everything Assad says becomes mandatory to Aoun," the statement added

Muallem for Syrian-Saudi Cooperation to Solve Lebanese Crisis
Naharnet/Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem has expected the United States to exercise more pressure on the Assad regime and called for Syrian-Saudi cooperation to solve the deadlock between Lebanon's majority and the opposition. Damascus "is ready for all possibilities including the U.S. resort to military force after its policy aimed at isolating Syria from its Arab surrounding through the American diplomatic weapon has failed," Muallem told Sudan's SUNA news agency on Thursday. But he said that Syria was seeking dialogue and understanding "with everyone" because it wants to prevent the region from being destroyed. He stressed that his country, which is holding the rotating presidency of the Arab League, will seek to end Lebanon's political crisis and help elect a new president supported by all Lebanese sects. Muallem also called for cooperation between Damascus and Riyadh to solve the crisis. "The solution won't come through pressuring one side and not the other," he told SUNA. The deadlock is solved by "encouraging dialogue so that each side makes a step forward until" agreement is reached, the Syrian foreign minister said. Such an agreement "would be the cornerstone of a solution to the Lebanese crisis," he stressed. Muallem also said the resumption of peace talks between Syria and Israel requires the Jewish state's seriousness and that Damascus was ready to return to the negotiating table if Israelis showed willingness to do so. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 04:54

Can Lebanon's politicians possibly be as obtuse as they seem?
By The Daily Star -Saturday, April 05, 2008
Editorial
In most other countries, the remarks attributed to Speaker Nabih Berri on Friday would have constituted a bizarre exercise in needlessly emphasizing the obvious: Before he can initiate a new round of dialogue among Lebanon's government and opposition camps, Berri said, he needs all the would-be participants to accept the idea. This is Lebanon, though, so the speaker's comments were not prattle designed to fill the space between one sentence and the next. Instead, he was explaining why his plan might not go anywhere because at least some of the people who need to talk are refusing to do so. Worse, yet, they are not even making a secret of it: Repeatedly in the past few days, some members of both sides have indicated that dialogue is a bad thing, and/or that they will only enter into it if their rivals concede some of the most important points ahead of time.
When 12-year-olds behave this way, their parents can roll their eyes and laugh if off as part of growing up. When the petulance is that of individuals who hold an entire country's fate in their hands, however, the natural reaction is much more complicated. It includes disbelief that anyone in such an important public position, at such a delicate period of Lebanon's long-troubled history, would utter something so unhelpful. There is also rage at the fact that the Lebanese system allows such people to acquire power and influence out of all proportion to their abilities and accomplishments. There is resignation, too, because one knows that even at the best of times, the tribal realities of Lebanese politics make some of its most repugnant practitioners virtually impermeable to what should be the consequences of flaws large and legion.
Then there are the questions, and none of the answers are very attractive. Does one explain to supposedly grown men that compromise is the intended result of dialogue, not a prerequisite? Or does one conclude that in fact they already know this to be true but are in fact attempting to sabotage any attempt at escaping the current impasse? If the latter is the case, how does one envision the next steps? How can such irretrievably stubborn politicians be made to understand that however gargantuan their egos, they are meaningless compared to the lives and livelihoods of more than 4 million people? Can a thinking person who cares about the future of this country look on the prospect of losing another entire year to political stalemate with anything but disgust?
Nabih Berri has been around for a very long time, and his credentials as a survivor - in every sense of the term - are legendary. He knows all the tricks in the book because he wrote several of its chapters. But even he must be scratching his head at the invincible stupidity of his fellow politicos, including some of his allies in the opposition. And he has plenty of company: Mediators from several countries and international organizations have also tried their hand at brokering an end to Lebanon's latest bout of self-destruction, and all have failed. They too must be wondering what it is about the Lebanese political elite that makes its members wholly insensate to the damage being inflicted on the country, its economy and its people

Israel Notified UNIFIL of Non-Hostile Maneuver
Naharnet/Israel has informed U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon that its forthcoming major war games would not involve "hostile intentions."
Yasmeena Bouziane, spokesperson for the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said the Israeli army has "informed us" that it would only carry out a maneuver that "does not involve any hostile intentions." The state-run National News Agency (NNA) quoted Bouziane as saying UNIFIL, in cooperation with the Lebanese Army, would closely watch the Blue Line that separates south Lebanon from northern Israel "to prevent any non-expected penetration.""We would increase our activities in our area of operations, with special emphasis on the Blue Line, and we would maintain our close contacts with all the sides in this regard," she added, according to the Arabic-language NNA report. Bouziane made the statement a few hours after Premier Fouad Saniora asked UNIFIL to watch out for possible penetration of Lebanon's sovereignty by Israeli troops during the major maneuver that would start on Sunday. Saniora also cautioned UNIFIL's command against attempts by Israel to "escalate tension along Lebanon's southern borders."  He also cautioned against possible attempts by Israel to violate UNSCR 1701, which ended 34 days of war between Israel and Hizbullah in the summer of 2006. Saniora urged the Lebanese Army Command to adopt all needed measures to "protect Lebanese citizens and confront any incursion that Israel may launch," the report added without further elaboration. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 19:58

Hizbullah: IDF drill shows its despair following defeat in war
By JPOST.COM STAFF
Hizbullah will "vigilantly follow" next week's IDF drill, the group's commander in south Lebanon, Nabil Kaouk, was quoted as saying Saturday. Home Front Command soldiers on the scene of a rocket attack during the Second Lebanon War. "Israel's military drill is not a testament of its strength but of its frustration and despair following its defeat in the Second Lebanon War," Israel Radio quoted Kaouk as saying. Meanwhile, Lebanese newspaper A-Safir quoted UNIFIL sources as saying that the IDF had asked the force to transmit reassuring messages of calm to Lebanon and its army ahead of the drill. A-Safir went on to say that Israel was making great efforts to clarify to Lebanon that the drill was a Home Front Command exercise and that there would not be any extraordinary maneuvers along the northern border. The reported request to UNIFIL was made after Lebanon Army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman and Hizbullah ordered a heightened state of alert in southern Lebanon. On Friday, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora himself issued an identical order amid concerns that Israel would use next week's drill to violate Lebanese so

Will Media Escalation Lead to an Unexpected War in the Region?

Raghida Dergham
Al-Hayat - 04/04/08//
Frightening are recent reports of militias in Iraq and Lebanon being equipped and reinforced, of military preparations and maneuvers taking place, as well as of advanced surveillance installations being set up in a number of countries in the region, primarily Israel, Syria and Iran.
There are spider-web threads between the various players and events that may help prevent direct wars. However, there are also high odds that the spark of a battle could lead to unexpected wars. For instance, it may not be at the core of Iran's strategy to encourage Hezbollah in Lebanon to avenge the death of its military commander Imad Mughniyeh, assassinated in the heart of Damascus. Nevertheless, by the end of this week, Syrian authorities will announce who they believe is behind the assassination, and it is expected that they will accuse Israeli Intelligence, the Mossad. Syrian military preparations, including the mobilization of security forces and an increase in the number of troops near the border with Lebanon's Western Beqaa Valley, coincide with announcing the results of the investigation of Mughniyeh's assassination. Such developments entail the risk of matters getting out of control, either for Iran or others, especially as reports indicate that Palestinian factions similar to Fath al-Islam, as well as other cells and networks comparable to and allied with al-Qaeda, operating in Lebanon have increased their capabilities. It seems that Iran's strategy in Iraq is based on taking the necessary steps to transform southern Iraq into an arena for pro-Iranian militias or into a federal state with an organic relationship with Iran. This is why Iran has been stimulating Shiite Iraqi militias, either to bring these militias to power through the upcoming provincial elections in October, or in anticipation of US military operations that President Bush is expected to conduct. It requires that Iran focus its efforts on southern Iraq to prevent supplies from reaching American troops.
Whether they be accurate or exaggerated, it is necessary to read through the reports of Arab, Israeli and American media over the past few days. Pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar newspaper claimed that Fath al-Islam had "overcome" its defeat at the hands of the Lebanese army at Nahr al-Bared. According to the newspaper, the faction has also "regained its capabilities, restructured its deployment and redefined its alliances". In another report entitled "al-Qaeda in Lebanon: What comes after Nahr al-Bared?" the newspaper mentioned the presence of dozens of small and medium-sized networks and stated that cells and networks entering Lebanon and training in the country have emerged either "in support of al-Qaeda directly or of groups similar to and allied with it".
The Israeli media, on the other hand, have conveyed warnings from a senior Israeli military intelligence officer that Hezbollah continues to prepare for the possible occurrence of a new war, and that Iran and Syria continue to supply Hezbollah with weapons, allowing it to "grow in strength". Interestingly, the officer anticipated that the operation meant to avenge Mughniyeh's assassination could be carried out by a "different organization" than Hezbollah, which may refrain from conducting a direct operation, as Israel's military commanders have made it clear that their response to any attack will be very costly for Hezbollah and its allies.
According to Israeli media, the advanced Russian anti-armor missiles sent to Syria have found their way to Hezbollah, and, according to intelligence reports, Russia thus found itself indirectly supporting Hezbollah during the July 2006 war.
Syrian forces have recently increased the number of troops near an area that has become a strategic location for Hezbollah in the Western Beqaa, namely Rashaya al-Wadi, thirty kilometers away from Syria's capital across Mount Hermon. Such Syrian reinforcements on the other side of Mount Hermon come at a time when Hezbollah is reinforcing its military capabilities in the Western Beqaa where UNIFIL forces, deployed in the South, are not present.
Such reinforcements and preparations indicate the possibility of turning the Western Beqaa into a base from which Hezbollah and non-Lebanese factions and militias backed by Syria and Iran can direct attacks that Israel considers provoking.
It is interesting to note that this movement of Syrian troops coincided with leaks in the Syrian media reporting that the Ministry of Interior would announce the results of the investigation of the Mughniyeh assassination at the end of this week. This in turn coincided with the placing of Israeli security agencies on full alert in preparation for expected attacks by Hezbollah or a "different organization" on targets inside or outside Israel. In addition, as reported by its media, Israel plans to commence what will be the largest emergency maneuvers in its history next week, not to mention that it has decided to distribute protective masks and has issued orders to its General Staff commanders not to use cell-phones during sessions for fear of surveillance by Iranian intelligence and Hezbollah. The media also mentioned that Tehran has established highly advanced surveillance facilities in Syria, a fact which was confirmed by Syria and denied by Iran, thereby generating a certain amount of confusion.
What Israel and Syria agree on are news of large-scale Syrian maneuvers and intensive training in preparation for military confrontation with Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak issued a very stern warning, stating that no attack "will go by without a response", and cancelled his trip to Germany, scheduled for next week, due to the tension with Damascus, according to Israeli television.
None of these reports indicate that a decision has been made, either by Israel, Syria, Iran or Hezbollah, to wage a serious war between them. There are no indications of a strategic Iranian decision requiring Hezbollah to provoke Israel into a war, nor are there indications that the state of truce between Syria and Israel is evolving into a confrontational relationship. More likely, it seems that using Lebanon in "controlled" battles may entail miscalculations that could spark larger wars.
It seems that the Syrian leadership seeks to prepare Lebanon to be a battleground for revenge, especially as the fear of intimidation has died out at the Damascus summit. During that summit, Syria received a clear response from those it had threatened with regret if they did not attend: we will not fear you!
Some have attempted to convince the Syrian leadership of the benefit of reaching an agreement over Lebanon and allowing that country to exercise its independence as a starting point for Syria to enjoy improved relations with both the Arabs and the international community. Even they were disappointed and forced to refrain from participating in the summit with a high level of representation.
Jordanian Monarch King Abdullah II did his best to help Syrian President Bashar Assad on every level before the summit, only to have all of his efforts frustrated by Syria's responses. Consequently, he did not attend the summit himself, and Jordan was instead represented by its representative in the Arab League.
Currently, there are fears of political assassinations resuming in Lebanon, and especially of attempts against Prime Minister Fouad Siniora intended to precipitate the downfall of the government, following Damascus's success in prolonging presidential vacuum by hindering the election of a new president and paralyzing parliament with the help of its ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
There is an increasing feeling that the Syrian leadership may escalate to the point of provoking a war with Israel, which may earn it sympathy among the Arab population, as it has realized that no one at all, be it a state, individual or organization, can prevent the establishment of the Special Tribunal to try those suspected of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Iran, on the other hand, may wish to wait until after the American presidential elections to determine its policies, especially those concerning the use of Hezbollah in Lebanon, to better serve its strategic interests in the region in general. Iran does not seek to involve Tehran in a direct war with Israel, and it certainly prefers continuing to wage its proxy-war through Hezbollah. However, if a war is started by either a Syrian or an Israeli decision, the Mullahs may find themselves dragged behind President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in his enthusiasm to become the hero leading the Muslim masses.
Although talk about resorting to a military option by the US has rescinded following the intelligence report indicating that Iran had ended its efforts to obtain a nuclear bomb in 2003, there is now increasing interest in the information provided by China to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna regarding Iran's nuclear program, which, according to some, reveals Iran's true intentions. This coincided with accusations made by the Chinese government against Islamist extremists of seeking to instigate an uprising in Western China.
According to a report in "The American Conservative", the US president will attack Iran before leaving the White House, most likely in the form of missile strikes on military targets inside Iran. The report claims that Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to the region was connected to this issue. It also predicted that Iran would respond by blocking supplies from Kuwait and the Gulf to American troops through Southern Iraq, pointing out that Jordan could offer alternatives supply routes. Iran may also strike ships in the Gulf, destroy ports and unleash destructive militias on oil export installations and block roads between Kuwait and Iraq.
This talk of uncontrolled wars and controlled battles is not smoke without fire, as what is happening on the field reinforces it and makes it frightening. Recent developments in Basra are directly linked to Iran and its sponsorship of Shiite militias, which serve as its allies and as a shield if the Iraqi government were to cooperate with American troops in military operations against Iran.
Tehran has made a fundamental, radical and essential decision in its strategy towards the Middle East, which is to form, groom, sponsor, finance, and train militias loyal to Iran to serve as its muscle against governments, even friendly ones. This is exactly what it has done in Lebanon through Hezbollah, and this is what it has done in Iraq despite the fact that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a close friend of Iran.
The Mullahs in Tehran do not take risks or wager on anything that is not fully under their control and in their possession. This is why they are establishing and reinforcing their networks of direct intervention and sincere allies among Shiite militias in Iraq and Lebanon, in addition to "tactical" non-Shiite militias, such as the Palestinian factions loyal to Syria, or organizations involved in direct confrontation with the US such as those similar to al-Qaeda.
Dwarfing and undermining these militias is a vital matter if the state in Iraq or Lebanon is to properly exercising its authority. Coexistence between the state and its institutions on the one hand, and militias working for another state on the other, is impossible. Dismantling and disarming these militias is essential if the state is to survive. The place of leaderships such as that of Hezbollah or the Mahdi Army is in political partnership within the structure of the state. Their place is reserved and all Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr have to do is agree to assume it.
If, however, the response is a refusal to integrate the construction of the Lebanese or Iraqi state, and an insistence on loyalty to Iran, then the battle between the state and the militia will require measures that would guarantee the state's victory at any cost and by whatever means necessary. One of these means is available in the link between Tehran and the militias in Lebanon, namely the option of informing Syria that it is time to end its relationship with Iran or else face severe costs. The new formula is making its way and ending impunity with penalties and trials. Hence the fear that Damascus may resort to waging wars and unleashing militias, either to divert attention or because it has reached the conclusion that it is time to go all the way

Opposition Sets New Demand, Majority Warns against Overstepping Arab Initiative
Naharnet/The opposition has set new terms for the election of army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman president while the ruling majority warned against overstepping the Arab initiative. The new demand was made by Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh during an interview late Thursday on LBC's Kalam al-Nass show. Franjieh said electing Suleiman was not possible unless the majority grants conditional approval for the 1960 electoral law, a demand already rejected by the March 14 alliance."Give us the 1960 electoral law and we will vote for Michel Suleiman tomorrow on condition that the election law is adopted during the same parliament session to elect a President," Suleiman said. He said the agreement must be made at the same parliament session scheduled to elect a new head of state. March 14 officials on Friday said Franjieh's remarks were seen as evidence that Syria and its allies were behind the new conditions in a bid to "overstep the Arab initiative and create a new status quo in Lebanon to avenge the painful blow to Syria from the Arab boycott of the Arab summit."
They said, consequently, any mediation effort by Arab League chief Amr Moussa as well as an initiative by Speaker Nabih Berri will inevitably face a dead-end as long as such demands come prior to preparatory contacts for the dual move. Franjieh said that if Moussa returned to Beirut "with the same proposals, then this means failure of the Arab initiative." Franjieh launched a vehement attack against Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, saying the prelate was not the "right authority" to study election laws. "He (Sfeir) has become just like (Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei in Iran," Franjieh said. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 08:06

Assad's Plan after Summit … Three Nos
Naharnet/A senior Arab official who took part in the Arab summit uncovered on Friday that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wants to adhere to "three Nos" in dealing with the Lebanon crisis in the next stage: "No peace, No reconciliation, No solution." The official stressed that the Assad regime was not at all willing to reach a solution on Lebanon "since such a settlement calls for implementation of Arab as well as Security Council resolutions – both of which call for supporting Lebanon's independence, sovereignty as well as the international tribunal. He said Assad wants a "Syrian solution" to the Lebanon crisis such as Arab and foreign states will give such a settlement the "necessary support."The official said Assad was betting that "Syria's determination" to topple the Lebanese government is "stronger than Arab or international willpower," adding that Damascus is relying on its allies, particularly Hizbullah. He stressed that the Syrian regime will not hesitate to use all sorts of "weapons, cards and pressure," including the possibility of a Lebanon-Israel outbreak of war. Beirut, 04 Apr 08, 14:02