LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 12/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 6,52-59. The Jews quarreled among themselves, saying, "How can this man give us (his) flesh to eat?" Jesus said to them, "Amen, amen, I say to you, unless you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you do not have life within you. Whoever eats my flesh and drinks my blood has eternal life, and I will raise him on the last day. For my flesh is true food, and my blood is true drink. Whoever eats my flesh and drinks my blood remains in me and I in him. Just as the living Father sent me and I have life because of the Father, so also the one who feeds on me will have life because of me. This is the bread that came down from heaven. Unlike your ancestors who ate and still died, whoever eats this bread will live forever." These things he said while teaching in the synagogue in Capernaum.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Interview with Dorry Chamoun: Syria-Israel war is imminent-Middle East Times 11/04/08
Ignorance is reinforcing America's failed project in Iraq-The Daily Star 11/04/08
Restraint on Syria vital. By: Shmuel Gordon. Israel Opinion 11/04/08
Lebanon's next president appeases Hezbollah & Opposition-Ya Libnan 11/04/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 11/08
Kuwait daily claims contact with missing Hariri witness-AFP
Berri accuses Siniora of 'usurping power,' blocking solution to crisis-Daily Star
US 'sabotaging' cluster-bomb treaty-AFP
Franjieh questions value of Berri initiative as religious leaders back dialogue-Daily Star
UNIFIL, LAF lay razor wire to guard Blue Line-Daily Star
Resistance bloc dismisses drug claims from Bulgaria-Daily Star
Palestinian militants infiltrating Lebanon - report-Daily Star
Ban to tap Belgian UN envoy as heir to Pedersen-AFP
Acquittals in Energy Ministry case upheld on appeal-Daily Star
Citizens to march to mark anniversary of Civil War-Daily Star
French envoy sees no quick solution to Lebanese crisis-Daily Star
Social group launches AIDS awareness workshop as infection numbers soar-Daily Star
Drug prevention groups hold seminar-Daily Star
WHO conference stresses readiness for climate change-Daily Star
ACS hosts novel environment debate for youth-Daily Star
E-Caravan brings computer education back to South-Daily Star
Everything you want to know about movies on one Web site-Daily Star
Inflation takes growing bite out of working class-AFP
Secretary-General to appoint new UN envoys for Lebanon, Cyprus-UN News Centre
One Student Killed, Nine Wounded in School Bus Accident-Naharnet
Israel Says it Better Prepared for Hizbullah Missiles-Naharnet
France Denies Killing Siddiq-Naharnet
One Student Killed, Nine Wounded in School Bus Accident-Naharnet
Saniora Briefs Ministers on Outcome of Arab Tour-Naharnet
Kouchner to Berri: Gates Open-Naharnet
Mufti Qabbani: Lebanon at Crossroads-Naharnet
MP Franjieh: The Problem is Between Lebanon and Syria-Naharnet
UNIFIL Erects Barbed Wire on Lebanon-Israel Border-Naharnet
Hizbullah Denies Benefiting From Cross-Bulgaria Drug Trafficking-Naharnet
Berri Accuses Saniora of Usurping Power-Naharnet
MP Franjieh: The Problem is Between Lebanon and Syria-Naharnet
Siniora Accuses Syria of Holding Lebanon Hostage-Asharq Alawsat
Syria Hits Back at Rice, Says U.S. Using Hariri Tribunal as 'Means of Pressure'-Naharnet
Axis of adventure: Syria-Telegraph.co.uk
UN troops erect barbed wire on Lebanon-Israel border-AFP
Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad Funded by Bulgaria Drug Traffic-Sofia News Agency
Syria accuses US of using Hariri probe as pressure tool-AFP
Al-Assad immunity proposal rejected By Nicholas Kralev-Washington Times
Hamas’s military buildup in the Gaza strip (report)-EuropeNews
Israeli Intelligence Expects Next Stage In Conflict To Last One Month-Evening Bulletin
Aoun: Murr Is Still An Ally-Naharnet

Citizens to march to mark anniversary of Civil War
Ngos call on Lebanese to 'reject' conflict
By Anthony Elghossain
Daily Star staff
Friday, April 11, 2008
BEIRUT: "Our unity is our salvation," organizers of a new civil society effort said on Thursday at a news conference to launch the movement and raise awareness about the problems it hopes to address. The organizers announced that a coalition of civil society organizations will hold a march on April 13 to commemorate the start of the Lebanese Civil War. The march will begin at 3:00 p.m. at Mar Mikhael, proceeding through the Tayyouneh roundabout and Bechara al- Khoury square toward downtown Beirut. Various activities will be held during the march, including the holding of a moment of silence "in remembrance of those kidnapped or gone missing during the war" and the planting of an olive tree in what the grouping labels "the garden of forgiveness."
During a televised debate, journalists and pundits will tackle the suffering of citizens during war and the actions of anonymous wartime heroes and debate the prospects of peace, hope and reconciliation.  The purpose of the march is to "encourage, through the participation of a maximum number of citizens, the rejection of the language of war by remembering the consequences of war."
Melhem Khalaf, head of the participating NGO Offre Joie, warned against division in Lebanon and urged citizens to "not let them [political leaders] transform you into firewood." A volunteer member of the civil society coalition, Makram Ouaiss, told The Daily Star that these efforts were aimed at "sending a message of hope and breaking down the barriers - political and sectarian - that exist in Lebanon." Addressing the fragmentation of civil society in Lebanon, Ouaiss stressed that "this is a cornerstone for civil society - and Lebanese citizens - to come together ... We have been planning this march for several months now, and hope that a large number of people turn out to make this statement." "Our hope is that a large turnout will catalyze this effort after the April 13 march ... Again, we are hopeful that the Lebanese can come together in resolving the divisions that plagued us during the war and are reemerging today," concluded Ouaiss. The 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War wrecked havoc on the state of Lebanon and its population, with Lebanese fighting among themselves and with others in a political, communal, and geostrategic melee that drew Israeli, Syrian, American and European forces into the conflict. Over 150,000 Lebanese lost their lives to the conflict, which also resulted in 400,000 injuries and the internal and external displacement of a still undetermined number of Lebanese civilians, many of whom remain away from their homes because of a still-uncertain political situation. The organizers of the march said that all those who are interested in participating are kindly asked to be at the Mar Mikhael roundabout by 2:30 p.m. on Sunday, April 13

French envoy sees no quick solution to Lebanese crisis
Daily Star/Friday, April 11, 2008
BEIRUT: French Charge d'Affaires Andre Parant ruled out on Wednesday the possibility that the Lebanese would reach a solution to the political crisis in the near future. "The crisis is complicated and has different facets and ramifications," Parant told the Lebanese daily An-Nahar. He also said it was too early to declare the Arab initiative dead, as it was the only real way to find a solution in Lebanon. Parant said that all Lebanese need to make efforts, "for the future of Lebanon and the fate of the Lebanese people are at stake." Parant also warned against a vacuum in the Army Command if Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces General Michel Suleiman resigns on August 21, as he has previously announced

One Student Killed, Nine Wounded in School Bus Accident
Naharnet/A school bus veered off the road in the Ein Saadeh district east of Beirut Thursday, killing a student and wounding nine others, police reported.
The fatality was identified as Jean Youssef Nader. The wounded were admitted to hospitals for treatment and their conditions were termed stable.
The Kafaat educational institute called a day of mourning in all its teaching institutes on Friday. Beirut, 10 Apr 08, 19:30

Kuwait daily claims contact with missing Hariri witness
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, April 11, 2008
KUWAIT CITY: A key Syrian witness in the probe into former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination said he was in hiding in Europe, in remarks published on Thursday, as his family demanded answers from France about his fate. Mohammed Zuheir al-Siddiq's whereabouts have been shrouded in mystery since he disappeared about a month ago from his suburban Paris home, while relatives in Syria say they have been without news for two months.
"I am living in a secret hideout, close to France and the international tribunal, and I am well," told Kuwait's As-Siyassah newspaper quoted Sidiq as saying by telephone. Siddiq, a former member of Syria's security services, was detained in October 2005 in a Paris suburb in connection with the February 2005 murder of Hariri in a massive car bombing in Beirut. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said on Tuesday that Siddiq disappeared from his home. "But I do not know under what conditions and if there was a police presence to watch him," he said.
Siddiq told the Kuwaiti daily that he was the target of three assassination attempts and that he would remain in hiding until an international tribunal opened to try Hariri's suspected killers. "We want to know if Zuheir is on French territory," one of the brothers, Imad Siddiq, said on Thursday after petitioning the French Embassy in Damascus for information about his sibling's whereabouts. "If Zuheir has been assassinated, I accuse Marwan Hamadeh of having liquidated him along with the French authorities," he said, in reference to Lebanon's anti-Syrian telecommunications minister.
France - which has refused to extradite Siddiq to Lebanon because it had not been given guarantees that he would not face the death penalty if convicted - rejected the accusations on Thursday. Hamadeh was seriously wounded in a bomb attack a few months before Hariri's murder. He has accused Syria of involvement in both attacks. Another of Siddiq's brothers, Omar, said he has urged the French authorities "to hand over Zuheir, if he is still alive, to the Syrian authorities," until the tribunal starts work.
Newspaper reports in 2006 quoted Mohammed al-Siddiq as saying that Syrian President Bashar Assad and his then Lebanese counterpart, Emile Lahoud, ordered Hariri's killing in a massive Beirut car bombing. Siddiq subsequently withdrew the accusation. The Syrian Foreign Ministry on Thursday accused the United States of exploiting the probe into Hariri's murder as a tool to apply political pressure on Damascus. Remarks on Wednesday by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Congress were "additional proof that the United States is using the tribunal as a means of political pressure on Syria," it said. On Wednesday, the secretary of state ruled out any deal with Syria to keep Assad's regime or his family from being implicated in the Hariri murder. A UN probe has implicated senior Syrian officials in assassination. Syria, which for three decades was the power broker in its smaller neighbor, has vehemently denied any involvement in the killing. - AFP

Berri accuses Siniora of 'usurping power,' blocking solution to crisis
Premier reportedly tells ministers stalemate might escalate
By Hussein Abdallah -Daily Star staff
Friday, April 11, 2008
BEIRUT: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri accused Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Thursday of seizing Lebanon's presidential post and "usurping power." Berri also slammed Siniora for refusing to take part in a national dialogue that has been called for by the speaker. Siniora on Wednesday said he would not participate in dialogue that is held under the auspices of the "stalwart of the opposition," referring to Berri. Berri also questioned why Siniora had agreed to take part in earlier dialogue sessions that were similarly called for by the speaker. "It seems that Siniora sees a solution to the crisis in the offing and wants to stop it," Berri said.
Also on Thursday, the speaker received a phone call from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. Kouchner told Berri that he is welcome to visit France at any time, adding that France supports national dialogue among the Lebanese. Kouchner and Berri had exchanged criticism earlier this week.
Meanwhile, Siniora ended his Arab tour, which included visits to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain.
The tour was reportedly aimed at garnering support for the holding of an Arab foreign ministers' meeting to discuss the strained relations between Beirut and Damascus. Governmental sources told LBC television on Thursday that Siniora has not yet officially requested the holding of such meeting, adding that the prime minister is not likely to file such a request any time soon. Siniora on Thursday headed a ministerial meeting, during which he briefed a number of ministers on the outcome of his talks with different Arab leaders. Government sources quoted Siniora as having told the ministers that the Lebanese stalemate was nowhere close to its end, adding that the crisis might well escalate soon.
Siniora told the ministers that he asked the leaders of the countries included in his visit to work on addressing the strained ties between Lebanon and Syria.
Siniora also briefed the country's religious leaders on the outcome of his Arab tour. He also contacted the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, MP Michel Murr, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, and Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea to brief them on the outcome of talks that he held with the different Arab leaders. Also on Thursday, Siniora discussed in a phone conversation with Arab League chief Amr Moussa the latest developments of the Lebanese crisis. Government sources told The Daily Star that Moussa was not likely to return to Lebanon soon. The sources added that Siniora is preparing to head for another Arab tour which is expected to include Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.
Meanwhile Amal Movement MP Ali Hassan Khalil said that Berri wanted to leave the door open for talks with all parties, including those who were against holding national dialogue. "We'd better wait until Berri visits Saudi Arabia and listens to the positions of Saudi officials on the issue of holding dialogue," Khalil told LBC television. But Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan said after meet-ing Siniora on Thursday that Berri's call for national dialogue was aimed at "legitimizing the opposition's blocking of the presidential election."Adwan said that Berri wants to hold dialogue in order to cover up for his "shutting down of the country's Parliament."
The Lebanese Parliament has not held a session since October 2006. In a related development, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, in implicit criticism of Syria, said on Wednesday better relations with Damascus depended on an end to the political crisis in Lebanon.  "We call things by their names, in that Saudi-Egyptian relations with sister Syria do not appear to be at their best," said Egyptian presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad. He was speaking after talks between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah in Sharm el-Sheikh. Awad said that Mubarak and Abdullah had agreed that moving the situation in Lebanon is the key to an improvement in Arab relations. "Egypt and Saudi Arabia know who has a duty to do what so that a real rapprochement can take place. Improving the situation comes about by deeds, not words, not by expressions of good intentions," he added. The leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have boycotted the recent Arab summit in Damascus after differences over managing the crisis in Lebanon. Both Arab heavyweights accused Syria of not facilitating a solution to Lebanon's protracted political crisis.  Lebanon's Parliament has failed on 17 occasions to elect a successor for Emile Lahoud, who stood down last November.
The next Parliament session to elect a president is scheduled for April 22, but an election does not seem to be in the offing as rival parties, which earlier agreed on electing Suleiman as president, are still at odds over forming a new government and drafting a new electoral law for the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Franjieh questions value of Berri initiative as religious leaders back dialogue
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Friday, April 11, 2008
BKIRKI: March 14 Forces MP Samir Franjieh said on Thursday after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir that an inter-Lebanese dialogue called for by Speaker Nabih Berri would not settle the ongoing crisis because "the problem is between Lebanon and Syria." "Therefore, the parties that are executing the Syrian policy are urged to stop sacrificing this country to defend the interests of the Syrian regime," he said.  "The reason behind the March 14 Forces' rejection of such a dialogue is obvious: we have held a dialogue in the past and none of the decisions were implemented," Franjieh said.
"Going back to old debates is no longer useful. The problem is not between the Lebanese but rather between Lebanon and Syria," he added.
In reference to MP Michel Murr's remarks on Wednesday, Franjieh said: "It was a positive stand, undoubtedly. Other MPs within the Reform and Change bloc are urged to take whatever steps they deem appropriate."Murr had said on Wednesday that delaying the election of a new president until rival parties reach agreements on other less important issues was unjustifiable. Murr, originally a member of the opposition Reform and Change parliamentary bloc of Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, has apparently moved away from Aoun's bloc after differences over the presidential election.
Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora called Sfeir to inform him of the outcome of his Arab tour and positions regarding the Lebanese situation.
Siniora also called Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani for the same reason. "[Consensus candidate] Lebanese Armed Forces commander General Michel Suleiman should be elected president immediately so his election will be the starting point to launching dialogue," Siniora said.
Meanwhile, senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah said on Thursday an internal dialogue among the Lebanese "is much better than keeping the situation as it is.""A direct dialogue can contribute to easing tension and creating a [positive] atmosphere that can pave the way to reaching solution," Fadlallah said in a statement. Fadlallah urged religious, social and cultural institutions to launch a "pressure movement" to force politicians hold an "unconditional" direct dialogue "instead of throwing statements back and forth."
"Such a situation increases tension and affects people's conditions negatively, especially as the socio-economic situation is on the verge of collapsing," Fadlallah said.
Fadlallah voiced "concern" that the Arab role in the Lebanese issue would follow into the footsteps of the American role. "Everybody feels that there is an American attempt to close doors in front of any solution [to Lebanon's crisis]."
Also on Thursday, Higher Shiite Council Vice President Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan reiterated his support for Berri's initiative to hold an inter-Lebanese dialogue.
"We do not want to eliminate or marginalize anyone, we want cooperation and partnership to save our country," Qabalan said, urging the Lebanese to "count on themselves" to find solutions to the crises the country is plunging into. "The language of challenge is not beneficial but rather harmful. Be humble and open the door to dialogue because it is the road to saving the Lebanese from their calamities," he added, addressing politicians

Ban to tap Belgian UN envoy as heir to Pedersen
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, April 11, 2008
UNITED NATIONS: UN chief Ban Ki-moon plans to appoint Belgium's UN ambassador, Johan Verbeke, as his new special coordinator for Lebanon, a Western diplomat said Wednesday.The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ban Wednesday circulated a letter to all 15 members of the Security Council announcing his intention to pick Verbeke to succeed Geir Pedersen of Norway in the post. The source said an official announcement was expected Thursday or Friday.Pedersen had been appointed special coordinator for Lebanon in February last year. - AFP

UNIFIL, LAF lay razor wire to guard Blue Line
Forces erect fence near ghajar
By Anthony Elghossain
Daily Star staff
Friday, April 11, 2008
BEIRUT: UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and Lebanese Army troops on Friday began putting down razor wire near the border with Israel, in order to prevent further breaches of the Blue Line separating the two nations, which are technically in a state of war. National News Agency reports indicate that UNIFIL helicopters were sighted in the Wazzani region seemingly monitoring Israeli maneuvers, as peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) continued to patrol the eastern sector of South Lebanon's border areas.
"UNIFIL soldiers began laying the barbed-wire fence in the area north of the village of Ghajar," Yasmine Bouziane, spokeswoman for UNIFIL, said.
Bouziane said that the decision to construct the barrier came during an April 2 meeting between UNIFIL commander Major General Claudio Graziano and Lebanese and Israeli army officials.
It appears that the three parties agreed that UNIFIL would set up the barrier north of Ghajar "in order to prevent violations of the Blue Line." Bouziane added that the barrier also seeks to reduce "drug trafficking in the area," which has become problematic in recent months.
There have been a few incidents along the border since the end of the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon, including the killing of an alleged Lebanese drug trafficker and wounding of another by Israeli soldiers in February.
The laying of the 250-meter long fence takes place on the last day of nationwide military and civilian exercises in Israel, which have raised expectations of a soon-to-come regional war, particularly as several senior Israeli government officials have stressed that lessons learned during the previous war are at the heart of a large portion of the drills and maneuvers. Last week, Premier Fouad Siniora cautioned against the potential for these drills to get out of hand, urging UNIFIL and the LAF to guard against "operations capable of increasing tensions." He also asked Lebanese authorities remain "vigilant" in protecting civilians against possible violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. Several Hizbullah officials have also expressed their views regarding the matter. On Tuesday, MP Mohammad Raad linked the maneuvers to "the Olmert government's need to demonstrate that it is overcoming flaws that became apparent during the 2006 war."The Olmert administration has sought to ease fears of war in Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Territories, signaling to neighboring states that these exercises are for defensive purposes. Created in 1978 after an Israeli invasion of Southern Lebanon that year, UNIFIL was expanded by Resolution 1701, which ended the month-long war in August 2006. Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border have remained high since the end of that war, contributing to a wary view of drills across the border. - With AFP

Resistance bloc dismisses drug claims from Bulgaria
Daily Star/Friday, April 11, 2008
BEIRUT: The Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc rejected on Thursday reports published in Lebanese newspapers a day earlier, in which the Bulgarian Parliament said drugs were smuggled to Lebanon through Bulgarian territories. The drugs were said to help fund Hizbullah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement. The Hizbullah-aligned bloc issued a statement to the Bulgarian ambassador to Lebanon, saying it hoped the accusations were not a "Zionist incitement to discredit the reputation of resistance movements" and called on Bulgarian parliamentarians to "exercise caution and precision" in this regard
 

Al-Assad immunity proposal rejected
By Nicholas Kralev
April 10, 2008 -Washington Times
http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080410/FOREIGN/313228489/1003&template=nextpage
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday rejected suggestions to offer Syrian President Bashar al-Assad immunity in a U.N. probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in exchange for his help in reining in the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas.
Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Republican, told Miss Rice during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing that the idea had been raised by King Abdullah II of Jordan during his visit to Washington late last month.
Mr. Specter said he asked the king how Mr. al-Assad could be persuaded to help talk Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories into changing their ways.
"He said the item which is most on the mind of Assad is the action of the international tribunal, which could lead to his indictment, and raised the possibility that that might be in the mix," Mr. Specter recalled. "It would be the most astounding plea bargain of all time."
Miss Rice said she did not know "what the tribunal will produce," even though many suspect Syrian involvement in Mr. Hariri's 2005 killing. Any immunity for Mr. al-Assad would damage the "integrity" of the investigation, she said.
"I don't think that it would be appropriate to suggest that we might be willing to limit the scope of the tribunal ... because it might somehow implicate either the regime or the Assad family," the secretary said.
"I know that has been on their minds, but I think that would be a very bad step — it would be bad for Lebanon and bad for international justice," she said.
After the Hariri assassination in Beirut, outrage forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence there. Mr. al-Assad has repeatedly denied any involvement in the crime
The West has accused Damascus of continuing to influence Lebanese politics through Hezbollah and other allies. Lebanon has not been able to elect a president for months because of political bickering.
Syria's support for both Hezbollah and Hamas is seen as vital for their financing and activities. The United States considers both groups terrorist organizations.
The London-based Arabic-language daily Al Hayat reported yesterday that former President Jimmy Carter plans to meet exiled Hamas political leader Khaled Mashaal in Damascus, Syria, next week.
Mr. Carter's press secretary, Deanna Congileo, confirmed that he would visit Syria but did not comment on a possible Mashaal meeting.
On Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Mohammed Zuhair Siddiq, a Syrian thought to be a key witness in the Hariri assassination, disappeared while under house arrest in France.
The chief United Nations investigator in the case, Daniel Bellemare, said in New York that Mr. Siddiq was interviewed by his team but never responded to an offer to enter a witness-protection program.
Mr. Siddiq, who is wanted in Lebanon, was detained in France but was released in 2006 because Paris received no guarantees that he would not face the death penalty if extradited to Lebanon.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports

Restraint on Syria vital
Syrian threat to Israeli civilians much greater than our leaders believe
Shmuel Gordon
04.10.08, 12:03 / Israel Opinion
Israel's government ministers have repeatedly declared that Israel has no interest to attack Syria, but that if Syria strikes us it would face a bitter end. One of the ministers even warned Syrian President Bashar Assad that he could "lose everything" should he decide to launch an offensive.
The officials' statements reflect a lot of self-confidence: Israel has nothing to fear, our deterrence and might are so much greater that Syria would do best to be careful, lest it pay a very high price and could end up "losing everything."
But is this really the current sate of things? It's true, Israel is stronger than Syria and could deal a severe blow to it in the case of a military confrontation, like it did in the Yom Kippur War. But this is not the balance we should take into consideration. There is a much more significant balance influencing the Israeli interest.
This is the balance of mutual damage to the civilian population. Syria, which manufactures and purchases large amounts of missiles and long-range rockets could inflict damage to the Israeli civilian population that is two-three times greater than the damage caused by Hizbullah during the last war.
Its ability to cause damage emanates not only from the missiles' range, but mostly from the size of their warheads. Remember how eight civilians were killed in the Haifa Bay by one rocket with a 100-kilogram (220 lbs) warhead during the war? This is just a fraction of the damage that hundreds such rockets and missiles could cause.
In terms of military capacity, Israel is capable of inflicting a much graver physical damage to the civilian Syrian population. However, as a western country that adheres to the laws of war, international law and universal moral principles, we would not be able to realize our destructive ability in the heart of uninvolved civilian areas. We know this and the Syrians know this. They understand that there is a limit to our restraint, and will not push it.
Silence is golden
However, in the Second Lebanon War they have learned that our "restraint threshold" is rather high and enables quite a bit of leeway, and control over the number of missiles fired each day for a substantial period of time. This way they could claim a large number of casualties, deal a serious blow to the civilians' morale, weaken the government institutions, and undermine Israel's perceived deterrence and its international standing.
Therefore, when examining the practical damage balance, Syria has a big advantage over Israel. With such a working premise, not only do we have no interest to attack Syria or Hizbullah, but rather - Israel has a clear, objective interest to avoid action, provocation or a mistake that could ignite conflict on the northern border. This is the fundamental principle that must guide Israel's policy in the three coming years. Israel's leaders must refrain from making threats or taking confidence-shattering moves that could lead us to a war in which Syria has a clear advantage. We have a slight disadvantage, and we should bear this in mind.
This Syrian advantage is only temporary and will only last until we develop systems capable of intercepting missiles, rockets and perhaps even mortar shells of all ranges. These systems would lower the number of hits to a tolerable level, minimize Syria's ability to hurt Israeli civilians, and tilt the practical damage balance in Israel's favor. In the meantime, silence is golden.
**Dr. Shmuel Gordon is an expert on national security and counterterrorism

Chamoun: Syria-Israel war is imminent
By CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)Published: April 10, 2008
Dory Chamoun - "There will be a mock-up war between Syria and Israel. And at the same time Israel will take the advantage to beat up Hezbollah. This time they will fight in the Bekaa Valley. This is a scenario that I see unfolding," Chamoun tells the Middle East Times.
Dory Chamoun is the sole surviving son of former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun, who founded the National Liberal Party, one of Lebanon's right-wing Christian groups. As president during Lebanon's first civil war in 1958 Chamoun asked for U.S. intervention, and U.S. Marines were dispatched to quell the unrest.
The PNL, as Chamoun's party is known by its French acronym, is part of the pro-government and anti-Syrian March 14 coalition.
Following the brutal assassination on Oct. 21, 1990, of Dany Chamoun, (Dory's brother) along with his German-born wife Ingrid, and his two sons, Tarek, 7 and Julian, Dory found himself at the head of the National Liberal Party.
On a visit to Washington, D.C., Chamoun spoke with Middle East Times editor Claude Salhani about the situation in the region and in Lebanon. The following are extracts of the interview.
Claude Salhani: What is your perception of the current situation in the Middle East?
Dory Chamoun: The situation in the Middle East is not going to remain as it is. There is a peace process going on between Syria and Israel, which is on track. How to achieve it remains the question. It is a fact that the Golan Heights is to be divided. Israel wants part of the Golan Heights. This is something the old [former President Hafez] Assad refused.
Now, to achieve that part; they will not be able to achieve it through peace, because Mr. Assad who represents a minority regime cannot say, 'okay, I will give what my father did not give.'
There will be a mock-up war between Syria and Israel. And at the same time Israel will take the advantage to beat up Hezbollah. This time they will fight in the Bekaa Valley. This is a scenario that I see unfolding.
Q: What will be Iran's position in case of war between Syria and Israel, whether it's a mock-up war or not?
A: I don't see Iran going to war for the sake of Syria.
Q: What about Hezbollah?
A: Israel might like to make peace with Syria, but with a promise from Syria to put an end to Hezbollah; if Israel has such a mirage, because it is only a mirage. I don't see Syria upsetting its only ally, Iran. Besides, the opposition [Hezbollah] is getting weaker by the day. All that they have achieved is to congest the [Beirut] city center with their tents.
Q: Do you see Syria ever giving up its ambitions on Lebanon?
A: No doubt this is a dream Syria has always had. All their regimes had an appetite to swallow up Lebanon. We are not going to allow it. The only time they [the Syrians] succeeded was when they made a deal with the United States. They made two deals with them. The first deal was the Kissinger plan in 1976, but it failed when the Christians didn't run away.
In 1976 the Syrians said they would go in to quell Lebanon and establish peace; they didn't succeed, they didn't quell the Palestinians. At the end of the day Israel had to come in.
During the First Gulf War, the first Assad, who was an old fox, found an opportunity to make a deal with the Americans. He told them, 'I will be your ally against Saddam Hussein but in return I want Lebanon. I want to be able to use my air force and my navy in order to beat the [Christian Lebanese] resistance.'
Q: And now, what kind of assurance are you getting from the Bush administration?
A: The Bush administration is serious. The feedback is positive. Lebanon is on their agenda. They are earnest about wanting to help physically, financially, as well as giving some goods to the Lebanese army. Especially after the Nahr el-Bared incident [when the Lebanese army fought members of an Islamist Group called Fatah al-Islam], the Lebanese army proved that it is strong, that it will not splinter.
For once, the United States is not going to trade Lebanon against something else to achieve some sort of peace with Syria.
Q: You are getting guarantees from this administration. What happens next January if the Democrats are in the White House?
A: I'm not worried because the policy on Lebanon is not guided by diplomacy; it is guided by security needs. And if the people in charge of the security of the United States decide that Lebanon must continue to be what it is today, and that Lebanon must be safe and not fall into the hands of the Syrians.
Remember what happened when it was in the hands of the Syrians? All the world-wide terrorist organizations mushroomed in Lebanon. Again, I don't think they [the U.S.] can take the risk after 9/11.
I think the whole strategy of the United States vis-à-vis our part of the world has changed 180 degrees. At one time the security frontiers of the United States used to be the oceans. Today the frontier goes all the way to Pakistan and Afghanistan. That sort of security policy, which the U.S. is following today is going to be the guideline, whether they are Democrats or Republicans.
Q: Overall, how do you see the future of Lebanon?
A: I am optimistic. However, it's a sad fact that Lebanon is a tiny country surrounded by two of the most horrible neighbors. One wants to swallow up Lebanon, while the other would like to see it shattered to pieces because Lebanon is the anti-image of the Jewish State of Israel. Lebanon is a state where there are 18 confessions (religious groups) who knew how to live together. And can live together again.
Q: What about the presidency? Lebanon has been without a president since November.
A: There's a lot of fuss about the presidency, but one should not make a mountain out of a mole hill. You consider the two presidents we had - that were Syrian puppets - to be presidents? I don't.
Q: Who do you think killed former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri?
A: Definitely the Syrians.
Q: When you say the Syrians, did it come from President Bashar, or from the intelligence?
A: The way the regime functions in Syria, I don't think that anything of that magnitude could take place without Bashar knowing.