LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS
BULLETIN
September 30/08
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
John 1,47-51. Jesus saw Nathanael coming toward him and said of him, "Here is a
true Israelite. There is no duplicity in him."Nathanael said to him, "How do you
know me?" Jesus answered and said to him, "Before Philip called you, I saw you
under the fig tree."Nathanael answered him, "Rabbi, you are the Son of God; you
are the King of Israel."Jesus answered and said to him, "Do you believe because
I told you that I saw you under the fig tree? You will see greater things than
this."And he said to him, "Amen, amen, I say to you, you will see the sky opened
and the angels of God ascending and descending on the Son of Man."
Saint Gregory the Great (c.540-604), Pope and Doctor of the Church
Homilies on the Gospel, 34, 8-9 (trans. Breviary) «Bless the Lord, all you his
angels, who do his bidding» (Ps 103[102], 20)
That angels exist is attested by many pages of
Holy Scripture... It must be realized that the word 'angel' is the name of an
office, and not of a nature... since they are angels only when something is
announced through them. Those who make minor announcements are called angels,
those who make important ones are called archangels. Hence it is that not just
any angel was sent to the Virgin Mary but that Gabriel the archangel was sent:
it was right that the proper one for this role should be of the highest rank of
angels since he was to announce the greatest news of all...
Whenever a mighty deed is in question, Michael is assigned, so that by his
actions and name, which means «Who is like God?», it may be made known that no
one can do what God can do. So in the case of our ancient enemy, who in his
pride wanted to be like God when he said: 'I will ascend to heaven; above the
stars of God I will set my throne on high; I will make myself like the Most
High' (Is 14,13): when he is shown to be condemned to eternal punishment at the
end of the world, he is described as about to do battle with Michael, as Saint
John says : 'War broke out with Michael the archangel. The Dragon and its angels
fought back, but they did not prevail and it was thrown down to earth' (cf Rv
12,7-9).
Gabriel was sent to Mary, for Gabriel means 'Strength of God'. He came to
announce him who deigned to be lowly so as to wage war on the spiritual powers
of the air. He who came as God of power and as one strong in battle (Ps
24[23],8) was to be announced by Gabriel, the strength of God. Finally Raphael
is interpreted as 'Healing of God', since he wiped away the shadows of blindness
from Tobias when he touched his eyes to cure him. The one who is sent to cure,
was indeed worthy of the name 'Healing of God'.
Free Opinions,
Releases, letters & Special Reports
Dr. Walid Phares:
Bombings in Lebanon and Syria are
part of a Master Campaign.By:W.
Thomas Smith Jr.
29/09/08
Signs of trouble seen before Syria bombing-Los
Angeles Times 28/09/08
No country is immune to the threat posed by
terrorism-The Daily Star 29/08/08
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for September 29/08
Washington Condemns 'Senseless" Tripoli Bombing-Naharnet
Iran
Blames Israel for the Tripoli Bombing-Naharnet
Fitr
Observed by Most Arab States-Naharnet
Suleiman: Terror Can Only
Be Confronted by Unity-Naharnet
Analysis: Sunni extremists suspected in Tripoli and
Damascus blasts-Times Online
Aoun Warns Against Hariri Victory-Naharnet
Officials say 15 dead or hurt in Lebanon explosion-The
Associated Press
Six killed in Lebanon army bus blast-AFP
Hizbullah Defines Off-Limit Areas for Lebanese Army-Naharnet
Rice
for Solving Lebanese-Israeli Track Issues Before Peace Talks-Naharnet
Beirutis Happy to Wave Goodbye to Provocative Posters-Naharnet
Sources: 'Positive Atmosphere
Prevailed' over Jumblat-Geagea Meeting-Naharnet
Syria Hunts Damascus Bombers,
Hizbullah Condemns 'Atrocious' Attack-Naharnet
Syrian bombing: A jihadi attack?-Christian
Science Monitor -
Syria could be paying a price for moderating-The
Associated Press
Analysis: Lebanon-Syria attacks linked?BBC
News
Syria blames Islamists for Damascus bombing attack-Al-Bawaba
Christian reconciliation takes center stage in Lebanon-Daily
Star
Syria hints
'terrorists' came from abroad-AP
MPs overhaul Lebanese election law, but not everyone is satisfied-Daily
Star
Syrian troops 'dig trenches inside Lebanese territory-Daily
Star
Saudi Arabia backs Doha agreement, while Egypt claims credit for accord-Daily
Star
Khalil emphasizes need for reconciliation-Daily
Star
Lahoud lauds Maronite League mediation-Daily
Star
Aoun: Change begins at House-Daily
Star
Beirut bourse loses ground as investors fret storm clouds in US markets-Daily
Star
Lebanese caught up in Israeli drug bust-Daily
Star
Beirutis welcome removal of party banners in capital-(AFP)
Islamic charities working overtime to provide for disadvantaged during holy
month-By Megan Bainbridge
Four killed in Lebanon army bus
blast
TRIPOLI, Lebanon (AFP) — Four people were killed on Monday in a car bomb blast
targeting a military bus on the outskirts of the restive northern Lebanese port
city of Tripoli, security and military officials said.
The attack risks further undermining stability in the troubled country and
efforts to reconcile rival political factions.
"Three of the casualties were soldiers," as were 24 of the 30 wounded, a
military official told AFP.
Earlier, a security official had said six people were killed in the attack, the
second deadly bombing targeting the Lebanese military in two months.
The bomb, placed under a parked car at the southern entrance to the city, was
packed with nuts and bolts and police suspect the device was detonated by remote
control. It blew up as the bus was heading towards the capital Beirut during
morning rush-hour, a military spokesman said. There were about 24 passengers on
board. Police and the army cordoned off the area as forensic experts began
gathering evidence while residents rushed to the scene or to nearby hospitals to
look for their loved ones. One man in his 50s wept and appealed for news about
his son who he said was on board the bus.
The force of the blast shattered windows and damaged cars nearby. The vehicle
under which the bomb was placed was left a burned-out pile of twisted metal.
A similar explosion in August left 14 people dead, nine of them soldiers, in the
deadliest attack in Lebanon in three years.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. "This attack is targeting
security and stability in the country, undermining the reconciliation efforts
that are taking place," the army spokesman said. Other officials said they
suspect the attack was aimed at undercutting the army's bid to secure Tripoli,
which has has been rocked by deadly sectarian violence in recent months.
Interior Minister Ziad Baroud called for an emergency meeting of security
services to discuss the situation following the blast.
Tensions in the city have eased in the past few weeks after Lebanon's rival
factions signed a reconciliation accord aimed at putting the lid on a political
crisis that took the country to the brink of a new civil war earlier this year.
"This attack targets the army's morale and seeks to rattle relations between the
military and the residents of Tripoli... following the expanded deployment of
troops," Tripoli MP Moustapha Alloush told AFP.
The army last year fought a 15-week battle with the Al-Qaeda inspired Fatah
al-Islam militia in a Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli that left 400 people
dead, including 168 soldiers. In June and July, 23 people were killed in battles
between Sunni Muslim supporters of the government and their Damascus-backed
rivals from the Alawite community in Tripoli.
The fighting focused on the Sunni stronghold of Bab al-Tebbaneh and the mainly
Alawite Jabal Mohsen district.
There has been tension between the two communities ever since Lebanon's
1975-1990 civil war. Alawites are an offshoot of Shiite Islam and straddle the
border into Syria whose President Bashar al-Assad is a follower of the faith.
Monday's explosion came as rival factions were working toward resolving their
differences following a long-running political crisis that brought the country
to the brink of civil war in May. The attack also took place amid heightened
tensions in the region following a weekend bombing which left 17 people dead and
14 hurt in the capital of neighbouring Syria, Lebanon's former powerbroker.
Syria's official news agency SANA said it was a suicide attack carried out by a
"terrorist" with links to an Islamist extremist group.
The bomb was placed under a car parked on the side of the road ©2008 Google -
Map data ©2008
PHARES: Bombings in Lebanon and
Syria are part of a Master Campaign W. Thomas Smith Jr.
29 Sep 2008
By W. Thomas Smith Jr.
A car-bomb targeting Lebanese soldiers exploded in the northern Lebanese city of
Tripoli this morning. Five people were killed and scores wounded in today’s
attack which was carried out less than two months after a similar attack in the
same city, and two days following a powerful car-bomb attack in the Syrian
capital, Damascus. The attacks – coinciding with the recent strengthening of
Syrian Army forces on the northern Lebanese-Syrian border (and various
unconfirmed reports of Syrian special operators who have perhaps been crossing
into Lebanon since at least early September) – may well be a coordinated effort
fitting into a broader plan for Lebanon on the part of the
Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis.
Dr. Walid Phares, director of the Future of Terrorism Project at the Foundation
for the Defense of Democracies, tells us:
“What we are now witnessing is a rapid unfolding of the Syro-Iranian terror
campaign aimed at achieving several interconnected goals.
“The explosions in Lebanon are aimed at intimidating the Lebanese Army, the
public, the politicians; and pressure all to accept an increasing role for
Hezbollah and Syria within the country’s security apparatus. It is interesting
to see the back-and-forth between the terror attacks against the Army and the
statements made by Hezbollah and pro-Syrian politicians calling for a defense
strategy to ‘protect Lebanon’: As if the message is: ‘You will continue to be
attacked until we are in charge of security.’“On the other hand, security
related incidents and bomb attacks inside Syria appear to be sending a parallel
message. The regime is eager to call itself a ‘target of terrorism.’ Hence, the
accusation is now leveled at so-called factions inside Lebanon, meaning the
mostly Sunni anti-Syrian politicians. Which leads to Syria’s so-called
legitimate action against an enemy based in Lebanon.
“If you look at the two tracks (the attacks and incidents in Lebanon and Syria)
you’ll understand that it is all connected in a master campaign aimed at
breaking Syria’s isolation on the one hand and then isolating the Lebanese
anti-Syrian factions on the other. All of it is accompanied by a systematic
media campaign out of Beirut which is heavily backed by Iranian
petrodollars.”Phares has just returned from a European tour where he briefed
members of the European Parliament, counterterrorism officials at the European
Union, and various international Defense officials.
— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. online at uswriter.com.
Analysis: Lebanon-Syria attacks linked?
BBC/Recent bombings In Lebanon and Syria may represent a new trend for
militants
In Lebanon analysts are linking a bombing in the north of the country to a
recent one in Syria, BBC Beirut correspondent Natalia Antelava reports.
Lebanese security officials say that a bomb explosion in the northern city of
Tripoli was a terrorist attack aimed against security and stability in the
country.
This is the second attack on the Lebanese army in recent weeks, last month 14
died in a similar explosion in Tripoli.
And just two days ago at least 17 people were killed when a car bomb exploded
near a government security centre in the capital of neighbouring Syria.
The Syrian authorities say that the week-end's attack in Damascus was carried
out by a suicide bomber who belonged to an extremist Islamist group.
The car, which was packed with explosives, crossed into Syria the day before
from what the official statement described as a "neighbouring Arab country".
Baghdad-style attacks This region is used to violence and explosions, and
al-Qaeda-linked militants have been present in Lebanon, and especially in the
Palestinian refugee camps, for at least a decade. Security in Iraq is improving,
but the militants are being driven across the border
Political analyst Kamel Wazne
But these car bombs seem to mark a new trend, and some analysts say it is
directly linked to the changing situation in Iraq.
While the security situation there is improving, US-led operations against
insurgents may be driving their members across the border into neighbouring
countries.
"Security in Iraq is improving, but the militants are being driven across the
border. There is a large number of militants that is coming into Syria and
Lebanon, and our countries are paying the price for what is happening in Iraq,"
says academic and independent political analyst Kamel Wazne.
There has been no official claim of responsibility for the explosion in Tripoli,
but there are fears that it could add fuel to the sectarian divide between the
city's Shia and Sunni Muslims.
'Outside threat'
Last May, fighting between the Sunni supporters of pro-Western government and
those of the Shia pro-Syrian Hezbollah put the country on a brink of a civil
war.
Then a peace deal was signed, and the sides came to a negotiating table. But in
Tripoli violence carried on until only two weeks ago, when the two sides agreed
on a truce. Many in Lebanon fear that Monday's attack aims at undermining the
nationwide reconciliation effort. "We will not let them drive us into a
sectarian battle and there will be no fighting between the people of the same
country," said Malik Ashaahar, the Mufti of Tripoli. But some here believe the
Lebanese government should do more to handle what they believe is a threat from
outside. "Someone has to clear this mess, because otherwise it will spread and
everyone will be exposed to the danger of terrorism," says Kamal Wazne.
Signs of trouble seen before Syria bombing
Los Angeles Times
Syria has strained ties to some Sunni Arab countries because of its support for
Shiite groups. It may have sent troops to the Lebanese border to prevent an
attack from militants, analysts say.
By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 29, 2008
BEIRUT -- When Syria deployed thousands of soldiers along its frontier with
northern Lebanon this month, some here feared that the Syrians were preparing to
retake a country their military had dominated until it was pushed out in 2005.
But now, after a bombing Saturday that was the deadliest in Syria since 1986,
analysts are wondering whether the troops were defensive, meant to stop an
imminent attack from Lebanon-based Sunni Muslim militants inspired by Al Qaeda
and sometimes trained in Iraq.
"The handwriting has been on the wall for a while," Sami Moubayed, a political
analyst in Damascus, the Syrian capital, said Sunday. "There have been signs of
trouble coming in from Iraq or Lebanon."
The car bombing killed 17 people and injured 14 in a crowded residential
neighborhood on the outskirts of Damascus. The area is near an intelligence
office and along the route to an important Shiite Muslim shrine.
It came as Syria performs delicate balancing acts in navigating the region's
sectarian and political fault lines.
The Syrians have held peace talks with Israel while strengthening ties to Iran,
the Jewish state's greatest enemy. They are trying to improve relations with the
West and maintain what some describe as heavy influence in Lebanon, contrary to
the demands of the United States and France.
Recently, Syria's Shiite-dominated allies in Lebanon won several political
victories, angering Sunni militants who consider the secular government of
Syrian President Bashar Assad an enemy.
Northern Lebanon has long been a bastion for Sunni radicals, some of them
veterans of the Iraq insurgency. Fatah al Islam, a group with Al Qaeda ties,
fought the Lebanese army last year in a months-long battle that left hundreds
dead.
On Aug. 13, just hours before newly selected Lebanese President Michel Suleiman
paid a landmark visit to Damascus, a roadside bomb struck a bus in the northern
Lebanese city of Tripoli, killing at least 12 people, 10 of them soldiers of the
Lebanese army, which is widely perceived as sympathetic to Syria. Dozens have
died in clashes between Sunnis and Lebanon's Alawite sect, which also has strong
ties to Syria.
Lebanese scholar Ahmad Moussalli said he told several Syrian officials over
lunch in Damascus three weeks ago to expect an attack on their soil. Saturday's
bombing, he said, was unsurprising.
"This constitutes payback against Syria because it is anti-Islamist and is
against the spread of such Islamism in the north of Lebanon," said Moussalli, a
professor of political science and Islamic studies at American University of
Beirut.
Syria suffers strained ties to some Sunni Arab countries over its support for
the Shiite political and military organizations Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas
in the Palestinian territories, as well as its strategic alliance with
Shiite-dominated Iran.
Although diplomats all over the world, including U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
and U.S. State Department officials, condemned the bombing, Saudi Arabia,
Damascus' biggest Arab rival, remained silent. The Saudi government staunchly
supports Lebanon's Sunni community and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud
Abbas' Fatah movement, which is strongly opposed to Hamas.
Syrian officials and pundits throughout the Middle East have publicly suggested
that groups in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia or Israel could have been behind the blast.
But authorities investigating the explosion have been mum.
"You can always round up the usual suspects," Moubayed said. "It's too early to
blame any particular group or organization."
In a report cited by Israeli media, London's pro-Saudi newspaper Asharq al Awsat
said the bombing took place near a building identified as the Palestine branch
of Syria's military intelligence. It cited unnamed sources saying that one
victim, perhaps the target, was a high-ranking intelligence officer.
But a Syrian opposition group, the U.S.-based Reform Party of Syria, discounted
that possibility, saying that no high-ranking officials ever spent time at that
intelligence office.
The privately owned Syrian newspaper Al Watan cited witnesses at the site,
including a traffic policeman injured in the blast, who said they saw two
charred bodies in the black sedan that held the car bomb minutes after the
explosion. Imad Habib, the policeman, said he found the car "totally burnt and
in it were two burnt persons and another two outside it. They were all dead."
Another witness said the car blew up after crashing into a truck parked along a
sidewalk.
The government-run Al Thawra newspaper published an editorial calling for
tighter restrictions on foreign visitors. Syria now lets citizens of other Arab
countries enter without visas.
"We need to be very careful in whom we let in," the piece said.
"We should ask, 'Why is he here and what does he want?' "
daragahi@latimes.com
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-syria29-2008sep29,0,7164304.story
Hizbullah Defines Off-Limit Areas for Lebanese Army
Naharnet/Hizbullah has asked the Lebanese army to stop flying over several areas
of southern Lebanon, defined as off-limits by the party.
The report, carried by the German magazine Der Spiegal, said Hizbullah has sent
a letter to the Lebanese army demanding "in a threatening tone" that the
military stops overflights over areas considered off-limits by the group.
Der Spiegal said the letter has raised "outrage" among senior officers who
called on army commander Jean Qakwaji to take a stance on the Hizbullah measure.
It said the off-limits areas included a massive part of central and southern
Bekaa Valley all the way to the Syrian border as well as the area north of the
Litani River almost all the way to the southern coast, in addition to Beirut's
southern suburbs.
The magazine said that Hizbullah fighters acted as though they were a
state-within-a-state when they shot a Lebanese army helicopter recently, killing
its Lebanese pilot. It said Hizbullah continues to receive financial support
from Iran as well as arms secretly smuggled via Syria despite U.N.'s persistent
border monitoring.
Beirut, 29 Sep 08, 12:00
Rice for Solving Lebanese-Israeli Track Issues Before Peace
Talks
Naharnet/U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said all issues
related to the Lebanese-Israeli track must be resolved before any direct talks
between Lebanon and the Jewish state. Rice told An Nahar daily in remarks
published Monday that she encouraged direct negotiations between Lebanon and
Israel.
Asked by An Nahar's correspondent in New York if Lebanon was ready to enter into
direct peace talks with Israel, Rice said that the Lebanese government has to
set the means to reach such an objective, meaning solving all issues related to
the Lebanese-Israeli track. She stressed the need to implement U.N. Security
Council Resolution 1701 with regards to finding a solution to the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms area and the demarcation of the border.
Rice also welcomed the launching of national dialogue among bickering
politicians at the Baabda Palace after cooperation between the government and
President Michel Suleiman whom she met on Thursday. The Secretary of State told
An Nahar that she hoped Lebanon would take the opportunity of improving
atmospheres in the Middle East so that all parties could resolve their
differences. Beirut, 29 Sep 08, 05:27
Sources: 'Positive Atmosphere Prevailed' over
Jumblat-Geagea Meeting
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat visited
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea at his residence in Meerab Sunday night,
Beirut media reported. An Nahar daily said Monday that the two leaders discussed
the situation in Lebanon and there was consensus among those who attended the
talks.
MPs Wael Abou Faour, George Adwan, Strida Geagea and Elie Kayrouz were present
at the meeting. The newspaper quoted sources as saying the talks were "very
good" and "a positive atmosphere prevailed" over the meeting. Beirut, 29 Sep 08,
08:17
Beirutis Happy to Wave Goodbye to Provocative Posters
Naharnet/Lebanon's feuding political factions will continue
removing party flags, posters and banners from Beirut on Monday as citizens
breathed a sigh of relief over efforts to ease tension. The political party
flags, banners and pictures that once festooned the Lebanese capital's streets
are coming down following their prohibition in support of reconciliation efforts
between rival factions. "It's wonderful because it's a statement that the
politicians are ready to resolve their issues at the negotiating table rather
than on the streets," Beirut-resident Fadwa Ghannoum, 39, said.
"Every time I go out on my street, I feel like my neighborhood belongs to
someone else. Once they're down, it'll feel like Lebanon is shared by all," she
added of the flags and banners in her neighborhood. In a country that has seen
deep political divisions played out in street clashes, political posters can
often be the spark of a violent incident. Fighting spread throughout Lebanon
leaving 65 killed in May after Hizbullah led an armed takeover of large swathes
of West Beirut.
An accord sealed later that month in Doha led to the election of President
Michel Suleiman, filling a six-month void, and the formation of a national unity
cabinet.
However, political tensions continue to spill over into the streets. Two weeks
ago, two people were killed in fighting that broke out over the hanging of a
political banner in Bsarma in the northern Koura province, leading many to see
the new ban as a safety measure. "It is a good idea because it might stop people
from hurting each other, but at the same time isn't it against the notion of the
freedom of expression?," said Halim Hanna, 37. Until Friday night, Beirut's
streets and buildings were plastered with posters, party flags and portraits of
political leaders both dead and alive, emblematic of the intense divide among
feuding factions.
The political leanings and often sectarian identity of a neighborhood was
immediately apparent from the party paraphernalia that decorated its streets.
An agreement between Hizbullah and its rival al-Mustaqbal Movement saw the
posters start to come down in Beirut and with a vow to continue throughout the
rest of Lebanon. Internal Security Forces stood by on Friday night as party
members carried away billboard-size pictures of al-Mustaqbal movement leader
Saad Hariri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Posters were ripped off
walls and party flags disappeared from most of the city's streets, but some were
skeptical if the move was enough. "In principle, it's a good step. But it
doesn't solve anything. You're curing the side effects and not the core of the
problem," said Suha Menessa, 26. "The pictures aren't the problem, the political
discourse and bickering is the problem," she added.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 29 Sep
08, 04:49
Syria hints 'terrorists' came from abroad
Naharnet/State-owned media hints car bomb that killed 17 civilians on Saturday was rigged
by foreign agents, perhaps 'parties angered by Syria's victorious return to
international arena after the desperate attempts to isolate, besiege and punish
it'
Associated Press Published: 09.28.08, 19:17 / Israel News
Syria on Sunday hinted at foreign involvement in a deadly weekend car bombing,
with its state-run media saying the objective was to undermine Damascus' efforts
to emerge from years of international isolation.
Saturday's 200 kilogram car bomb near a Syrian security complex on the southern
outskirts of the capital Whodunnit
Syrian FM: Israel has most to gain from terror attack
Walid Muallem says car bomb which killed 17 people does not indicate a security
breach and could have happened anywhere. 'Unfortunately, in the years following
the American war on terror, terror has spread even further,' he adds
The explosion killed 17 people. It was the biggest – and deadliest – attack to
occur in the country since the 1980s when authorities fought an uprising by
Muslim militants.
No one has claimed responsibility for the explosion, which also injured 14
people. Syrian officials have so far avoided accusing any group, saying only it
was a "terrorist act."
The government-owned daily Al-Thawra claimed in an editorial Sunday that recent
attacks in Syria were planned outside the country, but did not mention any
names.
However, the comment came a week after Syria massed thousands of troops north of
its borders with neighboring Lebanon. Syria says the deployment is meant to curb
smuggling, but President Bashar Assad has warned recently that "extremist
forces" were operating in northern Lebanon and destabilizing his country.
He was apparently referring to Sunni militants who have clashed for months with
pro-Syrian gunmen in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli.
Another government newspaper, Tishrin, said the bombing was carried out by some
parties it said were angered by Syria's "victorious return to the international
arena after the desperate attempts to isolate,
besiege and punish it."
The attack was condemned by the US, Europe, and many Arab states. Lebanese
President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora issued a statement
calling the crime "despicable and unacceptable."
Siniora referred to the blast as a "terror crime" and said such incidents must
be rejected, particularly when they take place in an Arab capital.
MPs overhaul Lebanese election law, but not everyone is satisfied
'The glass is half-full, not half-empty' - Baroud
By Andrew Wander
Daily Star staff
Monday, September 29, 2008
BEIRUT: Senior government figures said over the weekend they were "disappointed"
that proposed reforms to electoral laws were blocked by Parliament on Saturday,
and pledged to continue pushing for "radical" change after next year's
parliamentary elections. During a marathon sitting on Saturday, MPs adopted just
57 of 118 changes suggested in a proposed replacement to the current election
law. They rejected key reforms that would have allowed many more Lebanese to
vote in elections, including lowering the voting age. They also blocked plans
for a women's quota to be introduced to Parliament.
Lebanon's current electoral law was created in 1960, and is widely considered to
be out of date. A replacement law based on a draft produced by the Butros
Commission in 2006 was never adopted but leaders agreed to introduce reforms
suggested by the panel. But Parliament's decision to reject many aspects of the
reforms has come as a blow to democracy advocates, who have described the
proposed law as "a minimum step" toward establishing a fair electoral system.
The International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES) has recommended that
the Butros Law be adopted "as soon as possible."
Speaking to The Daily Star, Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud did not hide his
disappointment at the rejection of important aspects of the draft law. "Compared
to what we were working on under the Butros Commission, I don't feel that this
is an ambitious law," he said. "It's not the law we would have liked. I would
have preferred to see things change more radically."
But he added that the new law was not the end of the electoral reform process.
"This will not be the best law ever," he warned. "I'm a bit disappointed, but
the glass is half-full, not half-empty. I don't think this will be the last
electoral law. Reform in Lebanon is a step-by-step process."
Baroud said some of the proposed reforms, such as lowering the voting age, were
technically impossible to pass in Saturday's sitting of Parliament. "Lowering
the voting age requires a constitutional amendment, which cannot happen before
October," he said, but refused to speculate over whether the change would be
adopted before next year's vote. "If there is political will, things will
happen," he said.
Others were less optimistic.
Minister of State for Administrative Reform Ibrahim Shamseddine demanded to know
why the Parliament had rejected giving members of the military the right to
vote, opposed lowering of the voting age and refused to grant emigrants the
right to vote from abroad.
He said Parliament's decision to retain aspects of the 1960 law represented a
"land mine" in Lebanese politics. "The 1960 law ... is 48 years old and is no
longer applicable," he said. "The repercussions will be on both Muslims and
Christians."
Despite the proposed law being substantially watered down, some important
reforms were adopted on Saturday. One of the major changes is the decision to
hold elections on a single day. Previous elections have been held over several
days for what were described as security reasons. Calling the move a "courageous
step," the Interior Ministry pledged to ensure that enough manpower will be
available on the chosen day.
Much of Saturday's debate was taken up discussing whether members of the armed
forces should be allowed to vote. The prohibition on military personnel taking
part in elections is supposed to help the army maintain its non-partisan status
in Lebanese society.
But that idea was challenged by Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM),
which said servicemen should be allowed to vote. Supported by Hizbullah and
Amal, the FPM argued that soldiers should not be forced to give up their
democratic rights on the basis of their military commitments and proposed an
amendment to the draft law.
But others successfully argued against the change. Democratic Gathering leader
and MP Walid Jumblatt said he believed the military should remain politically
"neutral," and Future Movement leader Saad Hariri said that the ban on military
voting reflected Lebanon's "exceptional situation."
The Lebanese Armed Forces' perceived neutrality has allowed it to avoid being
drawn into Lebanon's delicately balanced sectarian politics of late. President
Michel Sleiman was the chief of the military before being elected in May and was
seen as the only candidate acceptable to all factions.
Also on Saturday, Parliament adopted the 10th article of the electoral law,
which related to the time frame required between the resignation of mayors and
their running for parliamentary elections. The Parliament decided to make this a
six-month period for mayors and a two-year period for the heads of municipality
unions.
Parliament will reconvene on Monday to continue discussing the draft proposals,
which are increasingly being touted as a first step.
Christian reconciliation takes center stage in Lebanon
By Hussein Abdallah
Daily Star staff-Monday, September 29, 2008
BEIRUT: Efforts to achieve reconciliation among Lebanon's Christian factions
geared up on Sunday as a Maronite League delegation visited Maronite Patriarch
Nasrallah Butros Sfeir at Bkirki to brief him on the results of its recent talks
with rival leaders.Maronite League chief Joseph Tarabay told reporters afterward
that inter-Christian differences should be contained.
"Differences between Maronite leaders should not reach Bkirki or hit the
streets," he said. "People should not be left to fight over these differences."
Tarabay said that the Church fully supported the Maronite League's initiative to
achieve inter-Christian reconciliation, adding that the his group was willing to
continue its efforts in the coming days.
Last week, a league delegation visited Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Free
Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, former President Amin Gemayel, MP
Nayla Mouawad, Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, and National Liberal Party chief
Dori Chamoun. The same delegation visited Marada Movement leader Suleiman
Franjieh earlier this month.
"All Christian leaders whom league officials have met support the principle of
reconciliation and agree that Bkirki should stay away from political differences
and that such differences should not develop into street clashes," Tarabay said.
During his Sunday sermon, Sfeir congratulated "the people who are steering
reconciliation efforts" and hoped that such efforts would succeed in uniting the
Lebanese.
Meanwhile, news reports on Sunday said that President Michel Sleiman was
preparing to launch an initiative in the coming days to reconcile rival
Christian factions.
The local daily An-Nahar quoted Maronite League sources on Sunday as saying that
Sleiman would sponsor a meeting between Christian leaders ahead of the second
round of national dialogue, scheduled for November 5.
The first dialogue session was held on September 16 and grouped the 14
politicians who signed the Doha Agreement last May. The talks were chaired by
Sleiman and attended by Arab League chief Amr Moussa.
The Doha Agreement ended an 18 month political crisis in Lebanon, leading to the
election of Sleiman and the formation of national unity government.
Holding national dialogue among rival parties was also an item of the Doha
Agreement.
Meanwhile, Geagea told LBC television on Sunday that any Christian
reconciliation should be held under the auspices of the Maronite patriarch.
The LF chief said that he was ready to engage in any such reconciliation "as
long as the patriarch is not ignored."
Efforts to reconcile Christian leaders have kicked off following a number of
rapprochements between the country's Muslim leaders.
These rapprochements were triggered by Progressive Socialist Party Walid
Jumblatt, who was the first to extend his hand to his Druze rival, Lebanese
Democratic Party chief Talal Arslan.
Jumblatt went on to engage Hizbullah as representatives from his party met with
resistance representatives under Arslan's auspices.
A similar effort to that of Jumblatt was carried out by Hizbullah toward Future
Movement leader Saad Hariri as a delegation from the Shiite group visited the
Sunni leader last week to prepare for a meeting between him and Hizbullah leader
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Amid the build up for the Hariri-Nasrallah summit, the Future leader on Sunday
left Beirut for Mecca, where he is expected to spend the Eid al-Fitr holiday,
which marks the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
Pentagon envoys 'to review LAF's needs'
Daily Star staff/BEIRUT: A source close to the leadership of the Lebanese Armed Forces told The
Daily Star on Sunday that a delegation from the US Defense Department will visit
Beirut in October to assess the needs of the LAF.
The source said President Michel Sleiman had discussed with US officials during
his recent visit to the United States the need to upgrade the capabilities of
the LAF.
"We don't know the details of the discussions that took place in Washington, but
we are positive that a delegation will be sent to Beirut on a need assessment
mission," he said.
However, the source added that no information was available on the type of aid
that the US is expected to deliver to Lebanon.
A senior US Defense Department official was quoted as telling the Naharnet news
website that the United States was ready to provide military aid to the LAF
irrespective of Israel's position. The official added that the types of weapons
to be delivered will be determined by the planning and research divisions of
both militaries and not by politicians.
On whether Washington was ready to provide the LAF with Cobra attack
helicopters, the official was quoted by Naharnet as saying that the US
administration has not yet received an official or detailed request from Beirut
in this regard. - The Daily Star, with Naharnet
Syrian troops 'dig trenches inside Lebanese territory'
Daily Star staff
Monday, September 29, 2008
BEIRUT: Syrian troops were allegedly digging long trenches between the regions
of Rachaya and Haqel Ashty in the Kfarkouq area near the northern Lebanese
border, according to Al-Mustaqbal newspaper on Sunday. According to the
newspaper, Syrian troops have remained in this area despite the Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005.
Syrian troops, according to the report, are dug in about 500 meters inside
Lebanese territory. Political sources told the newspaper that Syria was trying
to occupy Lebanese territory in the border region prior to the completion of the
demarcation process.
The sources said this issue was related to the Syrian military activity near the
northern Syrian-Lebanese border.
Last week, thousands of Syrian troops amassed along the Lebanese border in what
Damascus sad was an effort to combat smuggling.
According to a Lebanese Army spokesman quoted by AFP, "Nearly 10,000 Syrian
special forces have been deployed in the Abbudiya region along the border
between Lebanon and Syria."
"We asked Damascus for clarification," the source added, "and we were told that
the measures were strictly internal and on Syrian territory and that they were
in no way directed against Lebanon."Another military source confirmed that Syrian forces had deployed in Abbudiya,
but he told The Daily Star, "There is no need to worry."
"The troop deployment on the northern border relates to Syrian internal
affairs," he said, adding that the Lebanese Army has been "watching the border
closely for some time now."The army source said the troops were deployed to thwart smuggling, and that
Damascus had informed Beirut beforehand. - The Daily Star, with AFP
Saudi Arabia backs Doha agreement, while Egypt claims credit for accord
US Urges Israel not to make deal with Syria at Lebanon's expense - report
Daily Star staff
Monday, September 29, 2008
BEIRUT: Saudi Arabia's foreign minister praised over the weekend Lebanon's
efforts to implement the Doha agreement, as his Egyptian counterpart said his
country's diplomatic efforts had allowed feuding Lebanese to reach the accord.
Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said during his speech at the United
Nations General Assembly on Saturday that the kingdom supported the Doha
agreement, which paved the way for improved relations between Lebanese parties.
Faisal said he hoped that the Lebanese would agree to halt the internal use of
weapons.
He also praised the recent agreements reached between Syria and Lebanon
regarding diplomatic exchanges and border demarcation.
He added that he supported efforts to undertake national dialogue, and
underlined the importance of the Lebanese state having the ability to assert its
authority throughout the country.
Faisal said that Saudi Arabia supported the UN Security Council resolutions
1757, regarding the establishment of a Special Tribunal to try suspects in the
February 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri and Resolution 1701,
which put an end to Israel's 34-day war on Lebanon in July-August 2006.
The foreign minister added that Israel should withdraw from the occupied Shebaa
Farms "as soon as possible."
Meanwhile, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu al-Gheit said in an interview
with Al-Hayat newspaper on Saturday that Egyptian diplomatic work had resolved
the Lebanese conflict in May.
Abu al-Gheit said that when fighting erupted between the Future Movement and
Hizbullah in May, Egypt had called for an urgent meeting of the Arab League.
Abu al-Gheit added that many Arab states stated that they did not want such a
meeting, but despite these objections, the gathering was still held. He added
that Egypt decided to form "a working unit" for reaching an agreement between
the waring sides, as was achieved in Doha.
He said that the Arabs and Lebanon had harvested the fruits of this solution.
"It is not a matter of Doha, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Syria. What matters are
Lebanon's interests," he said.
"We succeeded in ending the deterioration of the situation in Lebanon. The basic
idea emerged from Egypt, and I have previously stated this and no one has
contradicted me. Egypt and Saudi Arabia called for the meeting and presented a
draft. Egypt came up with this decision and the other eight Arab countries
agreed on it," he said.
In a separate development, Al-Hayat reported that Washington has asked Israel to
avoid concluding a deal with Syria at Lebanon's expense.
Al-Hayat, quoting an unidentified senior US official, reported on Sunday that
Jeffrey Feltman, deputy assistant secretary of state and former US ambassador to
Lebanon, relayed Washington's message to Israel during a recent visit. Feltman
asked the Jewish state to respect the US commitment to Lebanon's independence
and sovereignty in its talks with Syria, the official said.
The official added that Israel would "respond to any act by Hizbullah that
threatens its security, but should not launch a pre-emptive war."
The official also said the recent meeting between US President George W. Bush
and his Lebanese counterpart Michel Sleiman was of "symbolic" importance because
"Sleiman is not [former President] Emile Lahoud and is not Syria's
representative in Lebanon."
Sleiman, the official added, is playing a "very cautious role so that he doesn't
disagree with anybody." - The Daily Star
Aoun: Change begins at House
Monday, September 29, 2008
The Daily Star/BEIRUT: MP Michel Aoun, head of the Reform and Change parliamentary bloc, said
Friday that reform should begin in the national legislature, which is the reason
why he tried to introduce amendments to the electoral law. During a dinner
organized by his Free Patriotic Movement at the Habtour Grand Hotel in Sin
al-Fil, Aoun said, "We do not fear the friendship of any state, neither Syria
nor Iran nor the United States. However, once US foreign policy threatens our
existence we would resist it even if we were sheep." Aoun said that many of
those in high-level religious, political, or cabinet positions were not role
models in society. He said that people applaud those who lied, killed, and
stole, and "accordingly, the society is heading toward destruction." Aoun called
for a return to ethical norms. "We cannot deal with each other in lies,
cheating, changing the truth ... and a misleading media. We cannot deal with a
prime minister who is a thief and who steals from the state budget," he said, in
reference to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Aoun said he warned that this period
would be particularly problematic because of the upcoming 2009 parliamentary
elections. "Do not say that it is not your responsibility. Each one of you is
responsible for judging the current administration that made the national debt $
50 billion, and I think that the amount of money that has been stolen is equal
to this amount," he said."I am subjected to a daily political conspiracy but
this challenge makes me stand on my feet. I fear nothing and nobody. I am not
involved in anything against any group in Lebanon, or against the state, or
anyone. I hold on to my freedom and my independence on my land," he said.
Lahoud lauds Maronite League mediation
Monday, September 29, 2008
The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Minister of State Nassib Lahoud said Saturday the efforts of the
Maronite League to bring various Christian groups together, "accompanied a new
atmosphere of reconciliation in Lebanon." "I think that a major part of the
tensions within the Christian community is due to an accumulation of grievances
from the previous historical phase, that of bloody war, which left wounds at the
level of the Christian leadership as well as within the wider public," Lahoud
said. After meeting with the Maronite League delegation led by Joseph Tarabay,
Lahoud said that there was unacceptable verbal violence within political
discourse. He said that it was a natural democratic practice to have different
political opinions; but he said all efforts should be taken to maintain high
standards of political debate. Tarabay said that reconciliation was courageous
and was measured by the willingness of different parties to come together. He
said that the league was "not asking for political alliances to be disregarded
in order to reach a unified stance, because Lebanon and the Maronite community
are diverse."
Khalil emphasizes need for reconciliation
Monday, September 29, 2008
Lahoud lauds Maronite League mediation
The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Development and Liberation bloc MP Anwar Khalil warned in comments
published Sunday that foreign parties might have "bad intensions" toward
Lebanon. In an interview with Al-Anwar newspaper, Khalil said that he hoped all
parties would continue their efforts to achieve reconciliation. Khalil added
that his bloc had hoped that the electoral law would have included more reforms,
"but the bloc approved it in the name of the national interest."He said he
supported granting emigrants the right to vote from abroad because Lebanon could
not survive "without the participation of its second half." Khalil also praised
President Michel Sleiman's speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New
York, "because Sleiman called on the Lebanese people to be optimistic."
Lebanese caught up in Israeli drug bust
By The Daily Star -Compiled by Daily Star staff
Monday, September 29, 2008
Israeli prosecutors in the northern city of Haifa filed an indictment Sunday
charging three Israeli bedouin and a resident of South Lebanon with the
attempted smuggling of 50 kilograms of heroin into the Jewish state through the
northern border, Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot said.
According to Yediot, the four were caught red-handed by detectives near the
border fence earlier this month, but the Lebanese citizen's attorney is claiming
that the indictment against his client constitutes his kidnapping from Lebanese
soil.
Police say the heroin was confiscated and the suspects apprehended on September
6. The indictment charges a 45-year-old man and his 21- and 23-year old nephews,
all bedouin from southern Israel, with possession of more than $200,000 in
Israeli currency, which they allegedly tossed over the fence to the Lebanese
citizen waiting on the other side.
The Lebanese then began throwing packages of heroin over the fence to the
Israeli side, the indictment states. He had tossed 33 kilograms of the drug into
Israel before detectives from the Narcotics Division of the Galilee Region
Police detained the four suspects.
Seventeen additional kilograms were reportedly confiscated from the Lebanese
side, and the suspect was also found to be in possession of a firearm and
ammunition.
The prosecution has also demanded to seize the suspects' vehicles and personal
funds, including an additional $646,000 that were discovered at the scene, and
$4,000 that were found in a bag held by one of the Israeli suspects.
Israeli attorney Basal Falakh, who represents the Lebanese, told Yediot that he
plans to appeal the prosecution's decision to place his client on trial in
Israel. "This is a Lebanese citizen who has been kidnapped from Lebanese
territory into Israel," he said. - The Daily Star
No country is immune to the threat posed by terrorism
By The Daily Star
Monday, September 29, 2008
Editorial
The car bombing in Damascus over the weekend has provided yet another deadly
reminder that terrorism respects neither borders nor ideologies. For various
means and by various methods, violent extremists of one stripe or another can
and will kill innocent people. Even the paranoia of a police state is no real
defense in the face of small groups that can be impossible to track as they
acquire explosives and other deadly supplies on the black market.
The lesson is the same one that should have been learned after the September 11,
2001, suicide hijackings in the United States: All states even remotely
interested in international peace and stability share a common cause. There is a
strong argument to be made that US President George W. Bush prevented that
lesson from being learned by insisting on a unilateral approach that alienated
even some of America's closest allies, but that is no reason for others to now
repeat the same errors. Damascus will not help itself by invoking some presumed
"right" to do as it pleases - and the West will do itself no favors by
continuing to turn a blind eye on the factors that drive terrorism in the first
place.
One undeniable fact of the modern Middle East is the growing power of non-state
actors, some of which have more power on many levels than do existing
governments. When they channel their resources and their strong popular support
to useful ends, these organizations can further the public good and therefore
complement the state. When their impressive means are put to more extremist
ends, however, the results can be devastating. For any government concerned
about the rise of non-state actors in the Arab world, therefore, there can only
be one course of action: a viable peace process that gives regional regimes the
breathing room they need to build functioning institutions. In other words,
unless and until Israel can be made to behave itself, the call to carry out
resistance will remain a powerful one - and some groups will go beyond what is
legitimate.
The Arab state has gone through many permutations in the past six decades or so,
almost all of them influenced to some extent by interactions with the Zionist
project imposed on the region. All of them have failed, which explains why the
non-state actors have become so popular. The latter will not go away, but
achieving a full and fair peace would allow the decent ones among them to
concentrate on humanitarian goals - and make it easier for pressure to be
brought to bear on the rest.
A threat bigger than Wall St
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor
September 27, 2008
IRAN is a problem from hell. The next US president, be it Barack Obama or John
McCain, is going to have plenty to worry about: the Wall Street financial
crisis, the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan's internal crisis, the relentless
military build-up of China and the temptation it will soon have of trying to
retake Taiwan militarily. But you can be sure of this. At some stage during the
next presidency, Iran will blow up into a full-scale crisis that will dominate
global politics and that may indeed be more important even than the other
problems listed above.
The new president will have one modestly useful extra resource, a bipartisan
report commissioned by two former US senators and written primarily by Middle
East expert Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute. The Weekend
Australian has obtained a copy of the report, to be released later this week.
Before I got the report, I had a long discussion with Rubin.
Rubin is a Republican, but the report he wrote was the consensus work of a
bipartisan taskforce that includes Dennis Ross, Obama's key Middle East adviser.
The report is sobering and in some ways shocking reading. It begins baldly: "A
nuclear weapons capable Islamic Republic of Iran is strategically untenable."
It points to the disastrous consequences of an Iran with nuclear weapons:
"Iran's nuclear development may pose the most significant strategic threat to
the US during the next administration.
"A nuclear ready or nuclear-armed Islamic Republic ruled by the clerical regime
could threaten the Persian Gulf region and its vast energy resources, spark
nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East, inject additional volatility
into global energy markets, embolden extremists in the region and destabilise
states such as Saudi Arabia and others in the region, provide nuclear technology
to other radical regimes and terrorists (although Iran might hesitate to share
traceable nuclear technology), and seek to make good on its threats to eradicate
Israel.
"The threat posed by the Islamic Republic is not only direct Iranian action but
also aggression committed by proxy. Iran remains the world's most active state
sponsor of terrorism, proving its reach from Buenos Aires to Baghdad."
In one sense the report is ostensibly optimistic. It argues: "We believe that a
realistic, robust and comprehensive approach - incorporating new diplomatic,
economic and military tools in an integrated fashion - can prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons capability."
However, it is unclear whether the report's authors really believe this is
possible. It would have been inconceivable to write a report saying without
qualification that the game is up, nothing can be done short of direct military
action. It would also have gone against the problem-solving, optimistic grain of
American public life.
But the report provides overwhelming evidence for pessimism.
For a start, it states quite plainly that no approach can work on Iran that is
not much, much tougher on the economic sanctions front, so that the cost to Iran
of continuing to pursue nuclear weapons becomes too great, while the incentives
of normalisation would become correspondingly more attractive to Tehran. But the
report makes it clear that tougher sanctions cannot possibly work without the
full co-operation and enthusiastic implementation by not only the US but the
European Union, Russia, China and the other Persian Gulf states.
In what is a spectacular understatement, the report drily notes that recent
events in Georgia may make Russian co-operation more difficult to achieve.
In our discussion, Rubin told me he thought the Russians might feel themselves
to be in a win-win situation.
If they continue to sell the Iranians nuclear technology, they make a lot of
money and frustrate the Americans. If the US or Israel ultimately strikes at
Iran's nuclear facilities, it will do two things that will please Russia. It
will cause great international discomfort for the US, thus lessening any US
pressure on Russia over human rights, its treatment of Georgia or other such
issues. And it will drive up energy prices when Russia is a huge exporter of
energy, thus making Russia evenricher.
Long-term, enlightened self-interest would see the Russians recognise the
dangers they too would ultimately face from a nuclear-armed Iran, but so far
that long-term, enlightened self-interest has been notably lacking in the
Russian governing class.
The report is an impressive document and deeply realistic. It recognises the
real possibility that the strategy it proposes will not work. It is very
difficult to imagine achieving the degree of international unity that would be
required even to put the strategy into effect.
And even if that international unity is achieved and the strategy implemented,
Iran's rulers may decide to go ahead with their nuclear weapons ambitions
anyway.
One of the strongest pessimistic indicators in the report is that there is
universal intelligence and diplomatic agreement that Iran was working hard on a
nuclear weapons program during the period of its maximum apparent moderation
under the reform president, Mohammed Khatami, when it also had the maximum
international engagement since the revolution of 1979.
The report states: "The 2007 (US) National Intelligence Estimate's finding
thatthe Islamic Republic maintained a nuclear weapons program until 2003
coincides with the European Union's period of critical engagement and former
Iranian president Khatami's call for a Dialogue of Civilisations." The report
further notes a recent statement by Khatami's former spokesman, Abdollah
Ramezanzadeh, that a strategy of insincere dialogue on Iran's part allowed it to
import technology for its covert nuclear program.
Rubin says there is significant criticism within Iranian leadership circles of
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his confrontationist rhetoric and frequent
threats against Israel, not because of ideological opposition to them but
because they attract Western pressure. Rubin believes that Ahmadinejad, though
significant, is not the real power in Iran. This is shared between the military
Revolutionary Guard and the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini.
Rubin believes that the Revolutionary Guard has become so powerful, and has
infiltrated itself into so many positions of power, that it is fair to describe
Iran as having undergone a kind of creeping military coup.
He is impatient with the unreality of much of the Western commentariat's
analysis of Iran. When people say it would be better to have a strategy of
deterrence against Iran than to try to prevent it from acquiring nuclear
weapons, he wonders if they really know what deterrence means. The strategy of
deterrence means the credible threat to deliberately inflict certain death on
hundreds of thousands of people if Iran commits a nuclear transgression.
Similarly, the strategy of containment means that Iran's neighbours must be
militarily equipped to fight Iran successfully should it attack until US
military intervention can arrive.
Kuwait was not able to do this against Iraq when it invaded nearly two decades
ago. Kuwait collapsed within hours and this required eventually a much bigger US
military intervention.
Rubin does not think a military strike is a good option. It may require 1400
sorties to be successful and unless the US, or Israel, was willing to repeat the
strike over the years, it might delay rather than eliminate Iran's nuclear
program. And it could have all kinds of other consequences.
For example, Iran could attack Iraq's oil facilities, which produce two million
barrels of oil a day.
However, the military option has to be there to give diplomacy any chance at
all.
Finally, Rubin notes the divergence between European, US and Israeli views of
the Iranian threat. The Europeans see Iran's nuclear program as a grave threat
to the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
The US sees Iran's nuclear ambitions as strategically unacceptable but not
ultimately a threat to the US's existence. Israel sees a nuclear armed Iran as
representing the threat of annihilation to the Israeli people.
If that is really Israel's view, and if international diplomacy cannot stop Iran
going nuclear, an Israeli military strike must eventually be more likely than
not.
The problem from hell.