LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 05/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 14,22-36. Then he made the disciples get into the boat and precede him to the other side, while he dismissed the crowds. After doing so, he went up on the mountain by himself to pray. When it was evening he was there alone.  Meanwhile the boat, already a few miles offshore, was being tossed about by the waves, for the wind was against it. During the fourth watch of the night, he came toward them, walking on the sea. When the disciples saw him walking on the sea they were terrified. "It is a ghost," they said, and they cried out in fear. At once (Jesus) spoke to them, "Take courage, it is I; do not be afraid."Peter said to him in reply, "Lord, if it is you, command me to come to you on the water." He said, "Come." Peter got out of the boat and began to walk on the water toward Jesus. But when he saw how (strong) the wind was he became frightened; and, beginning to sink, he cried out, "Lord, save me!" Immediately Jesus stretched out his hand and caught him, and said to him, "O you of little faith, why did you doubt?"After they got into the boat, the wind died down. Those who were in the boat did him homage, saying, "Truly, you are the Son of God."After making the crossing, they came to land at Gennesaret. When the men of that place recognized him, they sent word to all the surrounding country. People brought to him all those who were sick and begged him that they might touch only the tassel on his cloak, and as many as touched it were healed.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Emboldening Terrorists: 'Moderates' Kowtow to Hezbollah.By: Joel Himelfarb. Family Security Matters 04/08/08
Sectarian tensions heat up in Lebanon, Outside forces fuel instability. By:Simon Roughneen 04/08/08
Lebanon to legalize Hizbullah militia-Jerusalem Post 04/08/08
Lebanon's Battle. By: Elie Elhadj 05/08/08
Foreign interference would find no foothold were it not for the Lebanese- The Daily Star 05/08/08
Sunni-Shiite hostility? The UAE suggests otherwise.By Christopher Davidson 05/08/08
An Irishman offers advice in Beirut. By:By Michael Glackin 05/08/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 04/08
March 14 Meets Overnight, Last Bid to Amend Cabinet Policy Statement Monday-Naharnet
Aoun Urges Hariri to Join FPM-Hizbullah 'Understanding'-Naharnet
Franjieh Willing to Sit with Geagea, Aoun to Close Dossier on ...Naharnet
Report: Hariri Rebuilds Future Movement, Replaces Salim Diab-Naharnet
Livni: Syria Must Stop Supplying Hizbullah with Weapons-Naharnet
Assad Proud of Hizbullah's Major Victories-Naharnet
Jumblat Hopes to Become 'Ally' of Arch Foe Arslan-Naharnet
Israel Agrees to Free Palestinians in Final Stage of Deal with Hizbullah-Naharnet
Israel fears Hezbollah strike in western Africa-AFP
Baalbek signals Lebanon revival-BBC News
Livni: Syria Must Stop Supplying Hizbullah with Weapons-Naharnet
3 questions for candidates-Ynetnews
Syrian leader gets top billing in Middle East by doing nothing-Independent
Sfeir calls on nation's youth to 'avoid previous mistakes'-Daily Star
Slain Syrian general buried, questions linger-Reuters
Syrian general found shot dead in mysterious killing - reports-Daily Star
Lahoud proposes changes to draft ministerial statement-Daily Star
Qassem warns emigrants against fighting Israel in their host countries-Daily Star
UN chief determined to see Special Tribunal established-Daily Star
National bloc head slams ministerial statement-Daily Star
Ban to appoint Briton as coordinator for Lebanon-AFP
Alternative Energy Trends and Implications for GCC -Daily Star
Lebanon: 'Right to fight Israel'-Telegraph.co.uk
Lessons from Gaza and Lebanon-Jerusalem Post
Rating agency ups Lebanon's growth forecast - again-Daily Star
An Irishman offers advice in Beirut-Daily Star
He ran the country well-Jerusalem Post
Brummana lures crowds of summer tourists from Beirut, Gulf-Daily Star
Ahmadinejad assures Assad Iran is taking nuclear talks seriously-AFP

Sfeir calls on nation's youth to 'avoid previous mistakes'
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Monday, August 04, 2008
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said on Sunday that he hoped future generations would learn from past mistakes, "and avoid having this nation go through anymore atrocities." "The younger generations of Lebanese should avoid previous mistakes and work hard for the welfare of Lebanon and to preserve their country's unity," Sfeir said. Speaking during the Sunday sermon at his summer residence in Dimane, the patriarch slammed "all those who work on impeding the work of the newly formed Cabinet." "We always wonder whether obstructers have their conscience clear," he said. "Some are using all possible means to obstruct a powerful start for the new government, while the Lebanese are plunging into more distress and despair," Sfeir said. A policy statement that will allow Lebanon's new national unity government to officially take office was finally compiled on Friday after three weeks of tense negotiations.
"We reached a consensus after a long discussion," Information Minister Tareq Mitri told reporters after the ministers involved in drafting the text reached agreement on the government policy after holding 14 separate sessions. He added that the policy statement would be submitted to the government before it goes to Parliament for ratification. The new cabinet was formed on July 11, after weeks of bickering despite a May power-sharing agreement struck in Qatar that ended a protracted political dispute. The Doha Accord broke several months of stalemate between the country's rival coalitions and paved the way toward the election of President Michel Sleiman and the formation of the unity government in which the opposition holds veto power. - With AFP

The "Battle of Lebanon" Awaits Western and Arab Action Against the Iran-Syria Axis
Elie Khawand
August 4th 2008
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=681&pageid=16&pagename=Opinion
Cutting Edge Contributor
Lebanon remains a major front in the confrontation pitting the Iranian and Syrian regimes against the US, the West, most of the Arab world, and Israel.
The fact that Lebanon is occupied by a powerful sectarian militia that represents an extended military arm of the Iranian regime, and that additional diverse armed Lebanese and Palestinian militias receive orders directly from the Syrian regime, allows both dictatorships to present a formidable challenge to their Lebanese and international foes. Ahmadinejad and Bashar Assad enjoy the luxury of conducting remote battles away from Iran and Syria. They can indefinitely continue to wage their proxy wars in Lebanon, Iraq, Palestinian territories and other parts of the region, because they do not suffer any direct and deterring consequences for their actions.
While previous experiences proves that the military option is the only effective one, the US and other Western powers still continue to accept futile negotiations and ineffective sanctions as valid courses of actions. They continue to reward the bullishness of Syria and Iran with overtures serving only to increase their defiant arrogance while perceived by the US allies in the region as signs of wavering and abandonment. The latest case of shortsighted diplomacy was triggered by France’s reversal of Assad’s international isolation during Bastille Day celebrations.
The Syrian regime was quick to exploit the opportunity by sending a delegation to Washington DC. Assad believes that if he could stall till November then the upcoming US elections might bring an administration that would allow him more room to maneuver. The members of the visiting Syrian delegation brought the same old blackmailing rhetoric. Their claims, that asymmetrical conflicts will continue as long as the Syrian regime is targeted, are a reminder of the regional racketeering that kept the Ba”athist dictatorship afloat since 1970.
Meanwhile those Lebanese politicians who are opposed to the Syrian and Iranian influences in Lebanon are apprehensive of any moves of rapprochement with Syria and Iran by their Western allies. This, added to the prevalent fears of their barbaric opponents, led some Lebanese politicians to act in defensive manners especially in matters concerning Israel. When the recent Hezbollah prisoner exchange occurred, these politicians lined up to greet a man that many call a barbaric murderer, Samir Kuntar, and other fighters who belonged to the party that continues to terrorize and intimidate them especially after the last invasion of Beirut. Their attempts to appease Hezbollah compelled these politicians to participate in a grand “welcome home” event that was a disgrace to them and to every decent Lebanese family. The internal balance of powers in the country makes it obvious that the battle of Lebanon could not be won from within.
American leaders from both parties should understand and acknowledge how serious and ominous the threats are from the Iranian regime and to a lesser extent the Syrian regime. These regimes are the main causes for US casualties in Iraq and for spreading chaos and discord in the greater Middle East. Those in the US and in the West who still believe in dialogue with the Syrian dictator should consider that previous openness towards Syria have only led to the emboldening of the Syrian regime and to the weakening of our allies in the region. It is obvious that Assad is irreversibly entrenched with Iran in an agenda of regional domination. His peace negotiations with Israel as well as his advances towards the West are time-buying moves that would allow some breathing room to his cornered and failing regime. More importantly, it is clear that the Iranian regime is relentlessly trying to reach, at any cost, the irreversible stage of owning nuclear arms. If allowed to do so, Iran would be able to pursue, with impunity, its quest to export the “Islamic Revolution” to countries throughout the region and maybe to the world.
Therefore, the US should continue to emphasize that it will only negotiate with a capitulating Syrian and Iranian regimes when these regimes are ready to withdraw their claws from Lebanon and Iraq, and when they are willing to stop harboring and supporting terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups of extremists.
The US is not only winning the war in Iraq against the insurgents, but also it is regaining a growing respect from every genuine freedom fighter in the region. As a result, the Syrian and Iranian dictatorships feel greatly hindered. Instead of providing them with another break they should be further impaired. Action must be taken before these hostile regimes trigger yet another uneven battle within Lebanon--a final and disabling military blow should be poised for delivery directly to both Syria and Iran.
Unless Syria and Iran are confronted with such an option, both countries will continue using extremist groups and terrorists in order to wage proxy wars against their perceived enemies and to intimidate even more countries in the region. Unless the US and the West take this difficult and decisive action, the greater Middle East will be soon under the mercy of a nuclear Iran with its imperialistic ambitions to impose its “Welayat al faqih” brand of Islamic government on the peoples of the region. Then, all of today’s fears about a military option will be dwarfed by the dread of a rich, powerful and “divinely guided” Iranian empire.
**Elie Khawand is the director of policy for the Lebanese Information Center in Washington, D.C.

March 14 Meets Overnight, Last Bid to Amend Cabinet Policy Statement Monday
Naharnet/Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government will meet Monday to endorse the long-awaited draft policy statement amid reservations from Christian leaders within the ruling March 14 coalition vis-à-vis the resistance issue. President Michel Suleiman is to head the cabinet meeting, which is expected to be held later Monday at the Presidential Palace in suburban Baabda. March 14 leaders, in a statement issued following an overnight meeting on Sunday at MP Saad Hariri's mansion in Qoreitem, expressed reservations regarding the way the issue of the resistance was addressed by the policy statement. "Complying with the requirements of the ministerial statement will only be accomplished when the phrase "under the wing of the government" is added to the clause that addresses the resistance, March 14 said. Minister of State Nassib Lahoud on Sunday said he was willing to re-propose modifying the draft policy statement in Monday's cabinet meeting. He said he will suggest that Hizbullah adds the phrase: "Under the wing of the government" to the clause that speaks about the "right of the Lebanese people, army and resistance to liberate the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, Kfarshouba Highlands, and the Lebanese section of Ghajar as well as defend Lebanon by all legal means." Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea had voiced a similar position to that of Lahoud. "The Lebanese Forces will be reserved about any phrase which contradicts with its principles," Geagea said, stressing, however, that such reservation will not lead to rejecting the policy statement. The daily An Nahar, citing leading ministerial sources, ruled out the possibility that any amendments will be made to the policy statement in Monday's session. Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 08:27

Aoun Urges Hariri to Join FPM-Hizbullah 'Understanding'
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun called on Mustaqbal chief MP Saad Hariri to join the Memorandum of Understanding between the FPM and Hizbullah. "The doors are open for MP Hariri to join our Memorandum of Understanding with Hizbullah," Aoun told the Kuwaiti daily Awan in remarks published Monday. Aoun stressed that the relationship between his FPM and Hizbullah was strengthening. Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 09:31

Franjieh Willing to Sit with Geagea, Aoun to Close Dossier on Inter-Christian Rift
Naharnet/Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh has revealed efforts by President Michel Suleiman to reconcile warring Lebanese Christian leaders.
In an interview with New TV late Sunday, Franjieh said Suleiman has assigned Bishop Samir Mazloum to hold contacts with the various Christian leaders to arrange a meeting in Baabda. He said the meeting should include, besides himself, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, former President Amin Gemayel and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. Franjieh said that during his latest meeting with Suleiman, the president stressed the need to resolve the Christian-Christian issue. The Marada leader told New TV that he agreed to "sit with Geagea in the presence of Aoun." Franjieh, who believed inter-Christian reconciliation was more important than parliamentary elections, saw that attempts to "weaken Aoun are apt to weaken the Christian arena." He also expressed a desire to form alliance with former deputy Prime Minister Issam Faris to compete in the 2009 parliamentary elections. Franjieh said he hopes to meet Faris at the end of this summer in an "effort to convince him to come back to Lebanon and form an alliance for elections." Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 10:26

Report: Hariri Rebuilds Future Movement, Replaces Salim Diab
Naharnet/MP Saad Hariri's Future Movement has decided to put former Interior Minister Hassan al-Sabaa in charge of its Central Coordinating Body in place of ex-MP Salim Diab, the newspaper As-Safir reported on Monday. The move comes in the context of Hariri's efforts to rebuild the movement in preparation for the 2009 parliamentary elections, and in light of the events of May 7, when Hizbullah made a show of force in parts of west Beirut.
The main criticism of the Central Coordinating Body was that it had become bogged down in functional work and avoided political work, which created "an estrangement between the leadership of the Future Movement and its base," As-Safir reported. The movement is undertaking a review of its political administration as well as its "security experiment," the daily added. The main focus of the political evaluation revolves around the utility of what one of the Future Movement's activists called the "black decisions" (with regard to airport security and Hizbullah's communications network), and why the movement was so sure that Hizbullah would not undertake any "military or security adventure in the capital."As-Safir said that if Hizbullah used force again, Future Movement "would not bear the cost … but would rather deter it." It said that events showed there was a "big lie," called the Secure Plus army, the Future Movement's security force, which proved to be incapable of protecting the people of Beirut on May 7. Much of the movement's current evaluation centers on the role of retired officers in the events of May 7, when Hizbullah made an armed sweep through west Beirut. Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 10:53

Israel Fears Hizbullah Attack in West Africa
Naharnet/Israeli authorities fear that Hizbullah is planning an attack against its nationals in west Africa to avenge the death of its top commander Imad Mughniyeh, an official said on Monday. Israeli officials have in recent days traveled to west Africa, home to a large Lebanese Shiite community, and warned Israelis living and working there of the impending threat, a security official told Agence France Presse. The exact nature of the threat was not specified, nor was a particular country.
Israel went on high alert after Hizbullah blamed it for Mughniyeh's murder in a car bombing in Damascus last February. The Jewish state denied any involvement.
Israeli embassies and consulates across the world have remained on alert since the Mughniyeh killing, but so far there have been no specific warnings of a planned attack.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 08:02

Assad Proud of Hizbullah's Major Victories
Naharnet/Syrian President Bashar Assad has hailed during talks with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei what he called Hizbullah's major victories in Lebanon. "I am glad to hold this meeting under the current conditions…including the Islamic resistance's victories in Lebanon and the consolidation of Hamas' position in Palestine," Assad said in Tehran Sunday. Assad also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at the end of his two-day visit to Tehran.
The two leaders discussed bilateral ties and regional affairs, including the situation in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Iraq. The Syrian president earlier met with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who said that diplomacy is the only way out of his country's standoff with the west over its disputed nuclear program. He also told Assad that Tehran is serious about finding a practical solution to the nuclear crisis. Iran's leader made the comments a day after asserting that his country would not give up its "nuclear rights." Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 07:46

Jumblat Hopes to Become 'Ally' of Arch Foe Arslan
Naharnet/MP Walid Jumblat has urged the various political leaders to talk "politely" to each other and hoped he would become an "ally" of arch foe Talal Arslan.
"We respect differences of opinion, but let us from now on talk politely to each other," Jumblat told supporters during a tour of villages near the mountainous town of Aley on Sunday. He expressed hope that next time he makes a tour of the mountains he would be accompanied by his "ally" Talal Arslan, long-time arch rival of Jumblat.  Jumblat also saw that it is the state's right to "use any peaceful or military means" to liberate Shebaa Farms, stressing that the Israeli-occupied area "is Lebanese." Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 09:06

Israel Agrees to Free Palestinians in Final Stage of Deal with Hizbullah
Naharnet/Israel's Cabinet has agreed to release five Palestinian prisoners as part of its prisoner swap with Hizbullah. Sunday's vote follows the dramatic July swap that brought back the bodies of the reserve soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev to Israel in return for five Lebanese prisoners. One of the prisoners was Samir Qantar. The sides also exchanged body parts of combatants on each side. As part of the deal, Israel agreed to release some Palestinian prisoners. Hizbullah also provided Israel with a report about Ron Arad, a missing Israeli airman whose plane crashed in Lebanon in 1986, but Israel says it expects a more thorough report on his fate.(AP) Beirut, 03 Aug 08, 15:52

Sectarian tensions heat up in Lebanon
Outside forces fuel instability
Simon Roughneen
Monday, August 4, 2008
BEIRUT | The banner draped across one of downtown Beirut's plush ice-cream parlors reads "taste the reconciliation."
The specialty of the house is a multiflavored melange that includes all the colors of the parties of Lebanon's political spectrum, now ostensibly united after three years of discord.
But sweet sloganeering aside, a political chill is in the air, as uncomfortable as Beirut's summer heat. Tensions between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims are rising, and Syria is reasserting its political clout three years after it was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon in the aftermath of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Renewed fighting last week in the northern city of Tripoli, a Sunni-dominated region, underlined the precariousness of the peace agreement reached in Qatar in May between the Hezbollah-led opposition backed by Syria and Iran and the Western-supported March 14 movement, named for the start of the Cedar Revolution triggered by the Hariri assassination in February 2005.
"A lot of Saudi money has been put into the north to cultivate Wahhabi/Salafist ideology, to counter Hezbollah," reflecting wider Sunni-Shi'ite regional rivalries, said Ahmad Moussali, a professor of political science and Islamic studies at the American University of Beirut. "These radicals see the Lebanese army as weak, and March 14 Sunnis cannot stop them confronting Shi'ites or Alawites."
Alawites are members of a Shi'ite offshoot that is the sect of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Saudi Arabia follows the strict Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam. Salafism is a variant of Wahhabism practiced largely in northern Africa. Hezbollah is a Shi'ite Islamist militant group based in Lebanon.
One northern Lebanese Sunni jihadist group called Fatah-al-Islam is regarded as a Syrian creation, raising suspicions that Damascus is orchestrating both sides of the Tripoli fighting.
"The Syrians like to see this kind of instability," said David Schenker, a Lebanon specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "At the end of the day, it may be the only thing that saves them from the tribunal."
A U.N. tribunal investigating the Hariri assassination has implicated the Syrian intelligence agency, but Damascus has denied any involvement and has limited its cooperation.
The sectarian tensions in Lebanon, meanwhile, are fueled by the slightest of provocations.
Dozens of bullet-marked, shelled-out buildings line the Sunni-Alawite divide between the warring neighborhoods in Tripoli. One of them is Jamal al-Rai's garage.
He said he thinks his property was targeted because "I had the banner of Saad Hariri outside."
Saad Hariri, Sunni head of the March 14-aligned Future Movement, is the son and political heir of Rafik Hariri, whose assassination on Feb. 14, 2005, sparked Lebanon's Cedar Revolution a month later. Almost a third of the population took to Beirut's streets to protest what they regarded as a hit against a political figure resisting Syrian domination.
However, the March 14 movement re-energized Hezbollah and its supporters, who quit the government in 2006 to try to block formation of a U.N. tribunal to investigate the Hariri killing. Now the tribunal, created last year, may be in jeopardy. Under the Qatar peace agreement, Hezbollah achieved long-sought veto power over government actions.
On Friday, the new "unity" government announced agreement on a policy statement defending Hezbollah's right to keep weapons to defend the country against Israel. The statement is to be presented to parliament next week, according to the Reuters news agency.
In the meantime, Syria's Mr. Assad is enjoying at least a temporary rehabilitation. Invited to a Mediterranean summit in Paris recently, he met for an hour and 15 minutes with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Turkey has been mediating talks between Syria and Israel over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and other issues.
"The Syrians have won the political battle in Lebanon and have split the United States from France by opening negotiations with Israel," Mr. Schenker said.
Syrian pledges to recognize Lebanese sovereignty, demarcate the border and establish an embassy in Beirut may wait, he said, in anticipation of a new Lebanese government and an international environment more friendly to Damascus.
Syria's resurgence disheartens Sunnis, already unsettled by Hezbollah's brief takeover of West Beirut in May and the formation of the unity government.
"We hope the international community will not allow Syria back here," Sunni politician Bassam Khodar Agha, president of the March 14-linked Free Lebanese Movement, said in a recent interview in Tripoli. "Syria is causing unrest to facilitate Hezbollah. But we trust that the U.S. will support a democratic and free Lebanon."
At a hearing in Washington on Tuesday, Rep. Gary L. Ackerman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, criticized the Bush administration for failing to provide sufficient backing to the March 14 alliance.
"There is a serious need for us to review both our overall strategy and our tactics," the New York Democrat said. "What happened in Lebanon [in May] was absolutely foreseeable and probably preventable. The Bush administration's response remained limited and tactical."
Jeffrey D. Feltman, a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon and now the principal deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, defended U.S. policy in Lebanon as "a long-term investment," focusing on improving the capability of the Lebanese army "to reduce the need for the Lebanese to rely on private militias."
*cBarbara Slavin and Baptiste Etchegaray in Washington contributed to this article.

Lebanon to legalize Hizbullah militia
By BRENDA GAZZAR AND HERB KEINON -Jerusalem Post
A draft policy statement that could secure Hizbullah's existence as an armed organization and guarantees its right to "liberate or recover occupied lands" is expected to be approved by the Lebanese council of ministers on Monday before being presented to the parliament in the coming days.
"Lebanese officials from the president down had always legitimized Hizbullah's resistance as a national cause," Timur Goksel, a former senior UNIFIL adviser/spokesman who now teaches in Lebanon about Middle Eastern conflict, told reporters on Sunday.
"This time, a vehemently anti-Hizbullah government - led by a majority that has significant Western support - has put its signature to a clause that allows Hizbullah to take actions in the fields listed without seeking government approval," Goksel said.
"It also puts an end to any dreams of disarming Hizbullah. It secures Hizbullah's armed existence."
Government sources in Jerusalem said the decision would make the government in Beirut an accomplice to any Hizbullah aggression and give Israel the right to hold it responsible.
During the Second Lebanon War, Israel came under international pressure not to harm Lebanon's infrastructure because it was Hizbullah, not the Lebanese government, that killed several IDF soldiers and supposedly kidnapped reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in a cross border raid in July 2006.
The argument that the Lebanese government should not be held accountable for Hizbullah provocations would lose all weight if the government decision is approved, the sources said. The sources added that the pending decision was also an indication of Hizbullah's strong position inside the Lebanese government.
The sources said that while it was unlikely that the decision would have any immediate operative significance for Israel, it could lead Jerusalem to launch a diplomatic campaign explaining to the international community that it meant the Lebanese government could be held responsible for Hizbullah aggressions.
No decision to launch such a campaign had yet been taken, the sources said.
According to the Lebanese draft statement, its government emphasizes "the right of Lebanon, its people, army and resistance to liberate or recover the occupied Shaba Farms [Mount Dov], Kafr Shuba Hills and the Lebanese sector of Ghajar village; and to defend Lebanon against any aggression... by all legitimate and available means," according to the Lebanese news site Naharnet.
The "resistance" clause minimizes pressure on Hizbullah's weapons and legitimizes resistance as a national cause instead of a purely Shi'ite one, which had been two goals of Hizbullah during negotiations.
The heat was on Hizbullah's rival - the Western-backed March 14th coalition - and "they caved in," Goksel said, because they were eager to get the new government running to use their political offices to campaign for upcoming elections.
The policy draft must be approved by the Lebanese parliament for the new government to receive a vote of confidence.
But an independent Lebanese member of parliament, who had yet to read the draft, had a different take on the issue, saying he thought the clause made clear that "the resistance is not the exclusive privilege of the Resistance [Hizbullah] but essentially the responsibility of the state."
For many years, the resistance was conducted exclusively by Hizbullah but the draft statement also "highlights the other responsibilities of state institutions - the army - but also diplomatic means to liberate land occupied by Israel, Shaba [Farms], parts of Ghajar and the heights of Kafr Shuba," he told The Jerusalem Post.
Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, representing the majority in the committee that drafted the policy, said there should have been a clause saying that the "resistance should operate under the wing of the state."
"I hope a new version taking into consideration this reservation will be reached before the government adopts the statement," Lahoud said, according to the NOW Lebanon news site.
But others argue that the draft policy is vague and devoid of any real meaning.
"It is ambiguous enough to make everybody feel that they have gained as it can be interpreted in many ways," said Nadim Shehadi, an associate fellow of the Middle Eastern Program at London's Chatham House. "In the end, this was the compromise formula and it does not really mean anything. It's as contradictory and inconsistent as any coalition government would be."
Toni Nissi, general coordinator of the international Lebanese committee for the UNSCR 1559, said there would be no need for "resistance" if the Lebanese government implemented UN Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701 that proscribe solutions concerning its occupied territories.
"Lebanon has to choose between accepting and adopting the international resolutions... or say clearly that we don't accept the resolutions and we want to deal with our problems alone," he recently told reporters.

National bloc head slams ministerial statement
Daily Star staff-Monday, August 04, 2008
BEIRUT: The National bloc's head Carlos Edde said on Sunday that the ministerial statement was "one of the worst," because it allows Hizbullah to take Lebanon to war. He added that the ruling coalition "legitimatized" any future decisions Hizbullah might take concerning war with Israel. "The day of approving the ministerial statement would not be a sunny day in the history of Lebanon," Edde said. - The Daily Star

Brummana lures crowds of summer tourists from Beirut, Gulf
By Colin Chazen -Special to The Daily Star
Monday, August 04, 2008
BRUMMANA: Late Friday afternoon, a parade of late-model sedans clogs the winding road from Beirut up to Brummana. The cars are filled with Beirutis seeking an escape from the crowds and heat of the city amidst the pine trees - and bars - of this mountain town. For most of the year, Brummana is a sleepy town full of people who've known each other for years, said Kareem Demiane, 17, a local resident. But as the summer approaches and the air turns thick, weekenders from Beirut and vacationers from the Gulf fill the sidewalks and furnished apartments along the town's main road.
Aside from the expansive grounds and stone buildings of the Brummana High School, a Quaker school founded in the 1870's, the town has few prominent attractions. But what the area lacks in beaches and historic ruins, it makes up for with a wealth of restaurants, a moderate climate, and a sweeping view of Beirut. On a clear day, you can see from Antelias to the airport and every detail in between.
There is no town center, only a main road lined on either side with small businesses and concrete apartment buildings designed to seize as much of the view as possible. At night, the road becomes an elongated valet parking lot, as visitors and residents descend upon the town's two main strips of bars and restaurants.
Although the venues are different and the air is cooler, the partiers may look familiar to anyone who frequents the clubs of Monot and Gemayyzeh. "They're the same people," Demiane said. "You see them there, you see them up here, you see them everyday."
This shared target audience has posed a challenge to many Brummana businesses this summer. Now that the protesters are gone, the downtown area in Beirut has seen a revival and is pulling away customers, said Paul Eid, the manager of Copas bar and restaurant. This year, though, the town has seen an increase in tourist from the Gulf and Lebanese visiting from abroad, according to Fouad Hijazi, a high school student from Beirut. "Last summer was all people running from the war," he said. "This year is all people coming from the oil countries." Alongside the revealing dresses and open collar shirts of the Monot crowd, women in abbayahs and men in dishdashas crowd the town's restaurants. "They go crazy because they're restricted [in the Gulf.] Here they do whatever they want," Demiane said.
Brummana has long served as a refuge for those that refuse to except restrictions on their freedom. When violence broke out in Beirut in May, club goers kept that party alive at places like Copas, Eid said. The town experienced a similar boom during the summer 2006 war. "Everything was packed," Demiane said. "You could hear the bombs and people were out cruising around."For some people the town's attraction is not the bars or the view, but simply the weather. "It's too damn hot down there," one local resident said

Lahoud proposes changes to draft ministerial statement
By Hussein Abdallah -Daily Star staff
Monday, August 04, 2008
BEIRUT: Lebanon's national unity government is expected to ratify the draft ministerial statement in a Cabinet session on Monday in the Presidential Palace, headed by President Michel Sleiman, amid reservations from Christians within the March 14 bloc regarding the way the issue of the resistance was addressed by the statement. After ratifying the statement, the government is expected to sit for a vote of confidence in Parliament later this week.
Meanwhile, Minister of State Nassib Lahoud said on Sunday that he was willing to re-propose amending the draft ministerial statement in Monday's Cabinet session. Lahoud told a news conference that he will propose to Hizbullah adding the phrase: "under the guardianship of the state" to the paragraph that speaks about the "right of the Lebanese people, army and resistance to liberate the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, Kafar Shuba Hills, and the Lebanese section of Al-Ghajar village, and defend Lebanon through using all legal and possible means."
"Adding this phrase is worthwhile as it will lead to achieving a general consensus over the policy statement of the new government," Lahoud said.
He added that the committee which was in charge of drafting the ministerial statement has achieved major breakthroughs on 90 percent of the disputed issues.
"Most of the issues in the draft statement came in line with the principles of the March 14 Forces," Lahoud said. "As for the resistance, it was only normal to spend much time discussing such a strategic issue, and, in the end, we arrived at stressing the role and authority of Lebanese state with respect to the conflict between Lebanon and Israel.""But I insist that adding the phrase 'under the guardianship of the state' to paragraph 24 of the draft statement is necessary to reaffirm the role of the state," he added. Asked what his position would be if he failed to convince Hizbullah of the importance of adding such phrase, Lahoud said such failure would drive him to re-voice his reservation on the ministerial statement without having to curtail its ratification by the government.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Mohammad Shattah said that the ministerial statement's introduction stressed the role and authority of the state with respect to all issues mentioned in the statement. "What is mentioned in the introduction applies to all the statement's chapters," he told LBC television. A similar position to that of Lahoud was voiced on Saturday by Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea, who said "the LF will be reserved about any phrase which contradicts with its principles." He added that such reservation will not lead to opposing or rejecting the ministerial statement. Separately, Geagea said Christian public opinion was no longer the way it was during the 2005 parliamentary elections, which saw candidates backed by Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun win the majority of Christian votes in most electoral districts.
Geagea urged his LF comrades to start preparing for next year's elections in order to refute Aoun's claim of enjoying the support of 70 percent of the country's Christians."Some people are still influenced by the 2005 elections, which took place under specific circumstances which no longer exist," Geagea said.
"In 2005, the Christians voted the way they did for specific reasons, but eventually their votes were trashed," he added, hinting at the change in Aoun's political agenda after his alliance with Hizbullah. Aoun's FPM and Hizbullah signed a memorandum of understanding in February 2006, marking the building block of a political alliance between the two parties.
Meanwhile, Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad accused March 14 on Sunday of prolonging the discussion on the resistance in the ministerial committee in a bid "to tell the outside that the Lebanese are not united over the issue of the resistance."Raad added that prolonging the discussion also aimed at serving some electoral purposes.Also on Sunday, Labor Minister Mohammad Fneish said Hizbullah would liberate the remainder of Lebanon's occupied territories through military operations if diplomatic means fail to achieve an Israeli withdrawal.
Fneish, who represented Hizbullah in the ministerial committee, told Hizbullah-owned Al-Manar television on Saturday that the way the ministerial statement was phrased amounted to a "victory for Lebanon's right to resist Israeli aggression."Fneish said it was illogical to give the state control over the resistance. "Giving the state control over the resistance simply contradicts with the way the resistance functions.""The resistance was the result of the nature of the conflict with the Israeli enemy in the light of the absence of the state in the past ... The relation between the resistance and the state should be that of understanding and cooperation ... The resistance is not ignoring the state and should not be viewed as a violation of its sovereignty," he explained.
Meanwhile, Sleiman told the Kuwaiti daily Al-Anbaa that Israel was seeking to avenge its defeat at the hands of the resistance in the summer of 2006 by trying to push Hizbullah into internal strife. Also on Sunday, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt said Lebanon had the right to use both diplomatic and military means to liberate the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. Jumblatt, on a tour to a number of Druze villages in Mount Lebanon, told his supporters that all parties in Lebanon should respect each other irrespective of political differences.
On Saturday, Jumblatt complained about how some parties had approached the issue of Palestinian refugees during the policy statement talks.
"Some parties wanted the ministerial statement to speak about expelling the Palestinians from Lebanon ... This is not how the Palestinians should be treated ... on the contrary, they should given their civil rights," he said. Jumblatt was hinting at Telecommunications Minister Jebran Bassil, who reportedly insisted the ministerial statement should address the issue of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. On Friday, Bassil, who is a FPM member said that rejecting the resettlement of Palestinians in Lebanon in the ministerial statement was one of the FPM's achievements

Rating agency ups Lebanon's growth forecast - again
EIU warns threat of regression remains
Daily Star staff-Monday, August 04, 2008
BEIRUT: For the second time since the May 21 Doha accord, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) revised upward its economic growth forecast for Lebanon to 4.4 percent for 2008 and to 4.6 percent in 2009, but the EIU warned that Lebanon's economic growth should remain well below its potential because of political uncertainty and institutional deficiencies, said a copy of the report published in the latest edition of Byblos Bank's Lebanon This Week.
Following the Doha agreement, the EIU raised its growth forecast to 2.7 percent from -0.7 percent for 2008 and to 3.8 percent from 0.5 percent in 2009. It said modest growth in the first quarter of this year was set back by the negative impact on sentiment of the fighting in May.
The EIU report, however, said the subsequent political settlement should begin to encourage tourists, especially from the Gulf Arab countries, to return to the country. This, together with a renewed influx of visiting Lebanese expatriates, will also boost the construction, real-estate and retail sectors, while the recovery should be sustained into 2009. But the risk of regression remains high, with a large possibility that a sudden political crisis could derail the economy as happened in each of the last three years, the report added. Despite these risks, the EIU upgraded its political risk rating for Lebanon from C to CC and upgraded the overall country risk rating from CCC to B due to a significant decline in political tensions. The EIU rates countries on a scale of 10 rating levels, with the lowest rating a D and the highest a AAA. The new ranking represented the sixth of the 10 levels.
In its analysis, the EIU said the new national unity government would be widely viewed as a temporary arrangement, with all political factions looking to the parliamentary elections in mid-2009 to improve their positions. May's fighting has ended, but continued deep divisions between the parliamentary majority and the opposition bloc will keep the risk of another political crisis high in 2008-09.
Economist Elie Yachoui took exception to the EIU's rosy prognosis, saying the tourism and real-estate sectors do not represent enough of the economy to lift the gross domestic product (GDP) a full percentage point or more. Tourism makes up 15 percent of Lebanon's GDP, in a "very optimistic" estimate, while real-state and construction make up another 15 percent, he said. "The effect on the overall growth rate won't be as much as they are forecasting," he told The Daily Star on Sunday, adding that he saw GDP rising not more than 3 percent. "Don't forget that a larger number of our firms are suffering from many more problems," Yachoui said, citing the effects of skyrocketing oil prices and the rising cost of imported inputs as substantial brakes on economic expansion.
The EIU report also saw a number of obstacles facing growth, such as the new coalition government's expected troubles arriving at a consensus over how best to address the severe imbalances of Lebanon's fiscal and debt challenges. Resistance from the opposition is expected to prevent the government from implementing much of the comprehensive economic reform plan it unveiled at the Paris III donor conference in January 2007, the EIU added.
The plan calls for the privatization of state assets, notably the two cell-phone licenses, and for greater efficiency in public expenditures, which will be harder to achieve in the run-up to the 2009 general polls. As a result, the postponement of these measures is projected to contribute to a further widening of Lebanon's long-term fiscal deficits.Domestic demand would recover in the second half of 2008 and in 2009 - assuming that the political situation remains stable - although demand will remain constrained by rising inflation, the EIU said.
Consumer price inflation, which averaged 4.2 percent in 2007 and rose to around 7 percent by the end of the year, should increase sharply in 2008, the EIU added. It said inflation will be boosted by imported inflationary pressures as global oil and food prices rise strongly, and the dollar - to which the Lebanese pound is pegged - continues to weaken. As a result, the EIU forecast inflation to average 12.5 percent in 2008 and 10 percent in 2009. Moreover, any renewed surge in political insecurity, or any government attempt to reduce petroleum subsidies, could lead to more upward pressure on consumer prices.
Government revenues are set to grow by an average of around 12 percent over the 2008-09 period. Revenues from value-added tax (VAT) should increase sharply on the back of an expanding retail and services sector, although political constraints and inflationary pressures are expected to prevent the planned increase in the VAT rate. Also, continued foreign grants will boost non-tax revenues.
However, state spending will also rise by a very strong 20 percent in 2008, as high international oil prices will increase subsidies to the money-hemorrhaging, state-owned utility Electricite du Liban, and an increase in the minimum wage will boost non-debt spending. Moreover, the cost of servicing the large public debt will rise over the outlook period, the report added. With the election scheduled for next year, spending is expected to remain firm, rising by around 5 percent in 2009. As a result, the EIU forecast that the fiscal deficit will widen to $3.3 billion, or 13.7 percent of GDP this year, before narrowing to around $2.7 billion or 9.4 percent of GDP in 2009.The EIU said it expects Lebanon's public-debt burden, equivalent to around 177 percent of GDP in May 2008, to remain manageable, as the authorities are skilled at debt refinancing and can expect support from regional and international allies. Given continued international support, the government should be able to contract new loans to finance the fiscal deficit in 2008-09.
With more than $3 billion in Eurobonds due to mature before the end of 2009, the key factor determining the sustainability of the public finances remains the willingness and capacity of domestic commercial banks to extend new finance and to roll over foreign debt, the EIU said.
The EIU also forecast that the Lebanese pound would remain pegged to the US dollar. It said the central bank is strongly committed to defending the peg and will be assisted by its relatively wide scope to influence interest rates, high levels of reserves and strong support from the country's commercial banks. Nevertheless, substantial imbalances in Lebanon's public finances and the external accounts could leave the peg vulnerable in the longer term. - The Daily Star

Ahmadinejad assures Assad Iran is taking nuclear talks seriously
US presses UN to increase sanctions on Islamic Republic
By Agence France Presse (AFP) -Monday, August 04, 2008
TEHRAN: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday told visiting Syrian President and staunch regional ally Bashar Assad that Tehran was serious about finding a practical solution to the nuclear crisis. "We are serious in talks and we want the talks to be based on the law so it will bear practical results. We hope that other sides are serious too," Ahmadinejad told Assad in remarks broadcast live on state-run television.
On Saturday evening Ahmadinejad was quoted as telling his Syrian counterpart that Tehran "will not give up an inch on its nuclear rights."His comments coincide with this weekend's US deadline for Iran to respond to an international package of incentives for it to freeze its drive to enrich uranium amid warnings of new sanctions if it does not. After meeting Iran's nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili on July 19 in Geneva, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana asked for a response in two weeks, but "if it's in 16 days instead of 14 it's not a problem. We are not obsessed with a date," an EU diplomat said earlier on condition of anonymity.
The Syrian leader's visit follows a trip to Paris a month ago during which French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged Syria to "persuade Iran" to prove that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. "When we were in France we told them about the Syrian position on Iran's nuclear issue but they asked us if we have details of the Iranian program," Assad said on Sunday in Arabic through a translator.
"On this trip we got details, so in the future if we are asked again we know Iran's position." Iran has so far been slapped by three sets of Security Council resolutions demanding that it halt uranium enrichment. This process to produce fuel for nuclear power plants can also be used to make the fissile core of an atomic bomb if refined to significantly higher levels.
Meanwhile, the spokesman for the US mission to the United Nations said the world body would have to increase sanctions on Tehran, after the US-imposed deadline for a response to the incentives package was passed. "It is clear that the government of Iran has not complied with the international community's demand to stop enriching uranium and isn't even interested in trying," Richard Grenell said. "They leave the UN Security Council no choice but to increase the sanctions, as called for in the last resolution passed," he added. The West fears Iran's atomic program is a cover for making nuclear weapons, a charge vehemently denied by Tehran which says it needs nuclear power to produce electricity for a growing population. - AFP, with agencies
l WASHINGTON: Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a contender to become prime minister, urged the international community on Sunday to act quickly on new sanctions against Iran, saying that Tehran views any hesitation as weakness.
Speaking on CNN, Livni said that "time is of the essence" in challenging Iran's nuclear drive after Tehran let pass a US deadline this weekend to respond to an international package of incentives to freeze its uranium enrichment operations or face new sanctions.
"It is clear that Iran doesn't pay attention to talks, and this is a clear message to the international community to continue with real and effective sanctions," Livni said.
"The international community is being watched, not only by Iran, but also by Iran's neighbors. And when the international community shows hesitation, it is perceived as weakness." Livni expressed concern that if Iran is not challenged over its nuclear drive, which Western powers believe is aimed at producing nuclear weapons, then Iran's moderate neighbors are likely to end up its allies."We live in a neighborhood in which you either beat the bully or join it," she said.
She called for quick agreement on a fourth round of international sanctions threatened by Washington if Tehran continues to spurn the proposals of the six powers in the negotiations, namely the United States, Russia, China, Germany, Britain and France.
"We need to understand that we need to act today in terms of sanctions. Sanctions can be effective, as long as the Iranians and the entire world understand that all the options are on the table. This is what we need to do today." Livni meanwhile said Israeli-Palestinian peace talks remained on track despite Israel's internal political turmoil after embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would resign in September.
"I support and still support deeply the Annapolis process," said Livni, who is among the top contenders to replace Olmert as leader of the centrist Kadima party and prime minister of the Jewish state."We decided and promised to make all the efforts to reach a peace treaty until the end of the year. We are making all the efforts to do so," she said. "But what is more important is now the understanding between Israelis and the Palestinians that we are on the right track." - AFP

Qassem warns emigrants against fighting Israel in their host countries
Daily Star staff-Monday, August 04, 2008
BEIRUT: Hizbullah's number two Sheikh Naim Qassem said Saturday Lebanese immigrants who support Hizbullah in its struggle against Israel, "should respect the laws and policies of their host countries and know that the fight against Israel should take place in Lebanon and not anywhere else."
"Our brother emigrants should be aware that they are not supposed to be fighting Israel in their host countries, especially that these countries are not occupied by Israel," Qassem told a delegation of Lebanese emigrants at the al-Shahed Hall in Beirut's southern suburbs. "It is your right to respect the resistance and to preserve the sovereignty and independence of your country; we truly appreciate that," he said. "However," he added, "resistance is done in Lebanon and against Israel." Tackling recent developments on the Lebanese political scene, Hizbullah's second in command said that Lebanon was currently in a strong position, adding that "no sane individual would relinquish its points of strength," in clear reference to Hizbullah's arms."There is no need to fear Hizbullah and the resistance which liberated the land and the detainees," Qassem said.He added that the recently drafted ministerial statement confirmed that "the Lebanese, the army and the resistance have the right to liberate or the occupied Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Shouba Hills.
"This is a clear declaration that Lebanon is keen on maintaining the source of its force," Qassem said. A policy statement that will allow Lebanon's new national unity government to take office was finally compiled on Friday after three weeks of negotiations. The draft statement must be approved by Cabinet, and then submitted to Parliament for a vote of confidence. The new cabinet was formed on July 11, but negotiations on a policy statement have been hampered by disputes on the key issue of the weaponry held by Hizbullah.The Hizbullah-led opposition insists on the "right to resist" Israel, while the ruling bloc insists that only the state can make decisions on war and peace. Qassem indirectly criticized ministers who attempted to redefine the nature of the resistance during the course of ministerial discussions over the draft policy statement. "When dialogue sessions will be held later on, we will discuss the defense strategy and how to benefit from all our potentials and capacities," Qassem said. The Hizbullah leader was referring to the national dialogue sessions that are expected to be held soon under the leadership of President Michel Sleiman. "It is grossly misleading to say that the resistance is the problem in Lebanon and that we want to discuss its status," Qassem said. "Israel and Israeli aggression and occupation are the real problem." - The Daily Star

UN chief determined to see Special Tribunal established
Ban committed to 'culture of holding criminals accountable'
Daily Star staff-Monday, August 04, 2008
BEIRUT: United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in remarks published Saturday he was keen on having the Special Court for Lebanon see light "because the international organization is committed to the principle that criminals should not enjoy immunity."
The pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat reported that Ban made the remark during a reception hosted by the Egyptian mission to the UN. "You shouldn't doubt my commitment to the culture of holding criminals accountable for their acts and you shouldn't doubt my commitment to the international tribunal for Lebanon [to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and related crimes]," Al-Hayat quoted Ban as saying.
Also commenting on the international tribunal and stressing the need to castigate criminals, Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar said in remarks published Sunday he had "yet to examine the full dossier concerning the international court."In an interview with Kuwaiti daily Al-Qabs, Najjar said the Lebanese were determined to reveal the truth behind the series of political murders that shook the country from 2004 to 2007.
"Failing to incarcerate criminals would reflect weakness and encourage perpetrators to pursue their criminal schemes," he said, adding that assassinations "poisoned the lives of the Lebanese for a long time.""We will not rest until we reveal the truth behind those horrific assassinations," he said. Najjar added that the process of establishing the Special Court for Lebanon "still requires some more time and conditions to be established." He also voiced hope that the tribunal would not be politicized "in order to prove that Lebanon is a civilized country and that the Lebanese are responsible people."
The justice minister said that the 2009 parliamentary elections, in addition to introducing reforms to the Lebanese administrative system, "are likely to ensure that the tribunal won't be politicized."Najjar added that national dialogue among Lebanese groups was likely "to help the Lebanese solve all pending issues and provide the framework for building a proper state.""[Hizbullah leader Sayyed] Hassan Nasrallah's recent call for dialogue among the Lebanese in addition to Syrian-Israeli talks are likely to appease tensions in Lebanon and allow various groups to launch dialogue," he added.
Meanwhile, a source at the United Nations had told As-Safir newspaper in remarks published Thursday that that the international tribunal is set to begin its work in early 2009.The source, who is close to the UN secretary general, said that the Security Council had agreed last month to extend the mandate of chief UN investigator Daniel Bellemare until the end of this year, but the source raised doubts on whether the Council would agree to extend Bellemare's mandate again.
"This means that at the end of the year, the investigator will assume his new position as prosecutor for the international court," the source at the UN added, an indication that Bellemare had made progress in the probe into Hariri's February 2005 assassination. "I believe that [Bellmare] now has something that will enable him to proceed to assume the position of prosecutor," the source said.
According to the source, Bellemare is not planning to disclose the names of the accused, but rather he will deliver them to the investigating judge, who will in turn decide whether to accept or reject the requests for detention. The UN source said that Ban preferred not to announce the names of the Lebanese and international judges until the end of the year "in order to reduce expenses and also to protect their lives." He added that as soon as the judges' names are announced, they will be transported to The Hague and placed under guard. The tribunal is based at a former Dutch intelligence headquarters in a suburb of The Hague. - The Daily Star

Lebanon's Battle
Elie Elhadj, Ph.D. - 8/3/2008
Global Politician
The battle for Lebanon is a battle between a relatively rich minority among Lebanon’s four million people and a poor majority. The minority controls the political and economic fortunes of the country. The majority refuses to be dominated. The divide is political and economic, not religious or sectarian; though, Lebanon is home to 18 different religious sects, all recognized in the Lebanese constitution.
The minority encompasses factions within the Maronite and other Christian communities, traditionally known for their anti-Syria, pro-France and the United States affiliation led by former president Amin Gemayel’s Phalange Party and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces. Additionally, the minority includes Sunni Muslims, traditionally pro Syria but changed sides recently, led by the young Saudi/ Lebanese billionaire Saad Al-Hariri’s Future Movement, and a large faction among Lebanon’s Druzes who had been pro-Syria but changed sides too; led by Walid Junblat’s Progressive Socialist Party.
The majority includes Maronite and other Christians; led by former general Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. The majorit y includes also the downtrodden Shiites; led by Hassan Nasrallah’s Hezbollah and Nabih Berri’s Amal movement, in addition to Sunni Muslims; led by former prime minister Omar Karami and Sunni cleric Fathi Yakun’s Islamic Movement of Lebanon, and Druzes; led by Talal Arsalan’s Druze Democratic Party. The poor majority looks to Syria and Iran for support.
It is difficult to know with accuracy the religious and the sectarian make-up of Lebanon’s population. The last census was taken in 1932. That census gave Christians more than half of the population, with the Maronites a third of the population. However, Christian numbers have been declining since 1932 due to relatively low rates of population growth compared to Muslims’ growth rates, especially the Shiites, and to migration from Lebanon to Europe and the Americas.
Today, the general consensus is that Shiites represent over 40% of the Lebanese, Christians roughly 35%, Sunnis around 20%, and Druzes about 5%. That no census since 1932 has been allowed to take place reflects the seriousness of Lebanon population issue.
The rich minority may be guesstimated at about 40% of the population. In the 2005 parliamentary election, this minority won the majority of the seats: 72 out of 128 seats, or 56%. The poor majority, estimated at about 60% won 56 seats, or 44%. The skewed representation in parliament is the result of a flawed election law and the power of Saad Al-Hariri’s billions. The rich oppose a meanin gful change to the election law; the poor support the change.
Saad Al-Hariri is a son of Rafiq Al-Hariri. He holds Saudi and Lebanese nationalities. Rafiq Al-Hariri was born in 1944 in the Lebanese port city of Sidon to a Sunni Muslim family of modest means. In 1965, he left for Saudi Arabia, working as an accountant in a construction company. He moved from rags to riches swiftly. Fifteen years later, Rafiq Al-Hariri was on the Forbes top 100. After his assassination in 2006, his family members featured in Forbes’ list of billionaires in 2006. He reportedly left an estate of $16.7 billion. Saudi Oger, a construction company owned by Al-Hariri is a thriving business in Saudi Arabia today specializing in the construction and maintenance of profligate palaces for the senior Al-Sauds.
In 1978, Rafiq Al-Hariri and family were made citizens of Saudi Arabia. He returned to Lebanon in the early 1980’s; implanted by the Saudi ruling family in response to the absence of a viable Sunni leadership in the country and the rising power of the Shiite population since the early 1960s under the leadership of the cleric Musa Al-Sadr (disappeared in 1978 while on a visit to Libya).
The Shiites have been for centuries the downtrodden of Lebanon, suffering abject poverty, illiteracy, and ill health. Marginalized and discriminated against as second-class citizens by the government and society, Lebanon’s Shiites have suffered centuries of indignity and humiliation. Their liberation started in 195 9 with the arrival to the coastal city of Tyre of Musa Al-Sadr, an Iranian-born Lebanese Shiite cleric, son of a long line of distinguished Shiite scholars. At the turn of the nineteenth century, his ancestors escaped Ottoman persecution from Tyre to Iraq’s holy city of Najaf, then to Iran.
A close religious connection between Iran and the Shiites of Lebanon had been established some five centuries ago. Shah Ismail made Shiism the state religion of the Safavid dynasty (1502-1737) instead of Sunnism, presumably to fight the Sunni Ottomans. Lacking the clerics to convert and teach Shiism to his subjects, Shiite scholars from southern Lebanon (Mount Amel) were invited to establish schools and train Persian clerics in Shiism. Ever since that time a theological bridge between Iran and Lebanon flourished.
Musa Al-Sadr awakened in the Shiites of Lebanon a sense of dignity and worth unknown before. He replaced their innate self-pity, sorrow, and submission by a fiery spirit of hope, defiance, and revolution. In 1974, Al-Sadr formed the Movement of the Disinherited, a political movement aimed at social justice. In 1975, the Amal movement was formed as the militia wing of the Movement of the Disinherited. After Al-Sadr’s disappearance in 1978, the momentum of his work gave rise in the early 1980s to Hezbollah, a militia trained, organized, and funded by Ayatollah Khomeini’s Revolutionary Guards. In addition to its military wing, Hezbollah organizes extensive networks of social development programs, runnin g hospitals, schools, and social help for the poor.
In Lebanon, Rafiq Al-Hariri started to establish his power base through making large donations and contributions to various groups and causes. He laid the groundwork for the 1989 Taif Accord, which Saudi Arabia organized. Taif ended the fifteen-year civil war (1975-1990) and paved the way in 1992 for Al-Hariri to become prime minister. He was prime minister from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 until his resignation on 20 October 2004. Hariri was assassinated on 14 February 2005.
Until the cataclysmic events of September 11, 2001 took place Rafiq Al-Hariri was content to rule in Lebanon under Syria’s domination. Syrian troops entered Lebanon in 1976 at the request of the Lebanese. They put an end to Lebanon’s civil war. Syrian troops were in Lebanon for 29 years before being forced to withdraw unceremoniously on April 26, 2005, in accordance with Security Council Resolution 1559 of September 2004. After 9/11, however, matters changed.
The Bush administration’s response to 9/11 was to want to reshape the Middle East; change the regimes of Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon plus Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip; and, force a settlement in the Arab Israeli conflict on Israel’s terms. US forces occupied Afghanistan in October 2001 and Iraq in April 2003. Saudi Arabia would play a major role in Washington’s unfolding plans.
That 15 out of the 19 murderers on 9/1120were Saudis threatens catastrophe to the Al-Sauds. Fearing America’s retaliation, the Al-Sauds performed an act of preemptive surrender. Events since 2001 suggest that the Al-Sauds have become even more obsequious and obvious in their submissiveness to Washington than ever before.
Traditionally, Saudis traveled the more than a thousand kilometers or so to Lebanon as tourists seeking temperate climate, breathtaking mountains, beautiful women, delicious cuisine, and abundant alcohol. Post 9/11, Saudi Arabia’s interest in Lebanon took a new purpose; install in Beirut a pro Washington government, destroy Hezbollah, and change the regime in Damascus. The instrument would be a Trojan horse loaded with Saudi money called Al-Hariri.
Since the 2005 parliamentary elections the Al-Hariri/ Gemayel/ Geagea/ Junblat alliance, known as 14 March alliance, has been in control of the Lebanese parliament and the cabinet. Prime minister Fouad Seniora has been for years an employee of Al-Hariri companies serving as finance director. Seniora was made finance minister in Rafiq Al-Hariri’s cabinets then prime minister in 2005 by Saad Al-Hariri and his Saudi handlers. The 14 March alliance succeeded in removing Syria’s troops from Lebanon in 2005.
The Saudi plan, however, has run into trouble. Hezbollah proved to be more resilient than to be sidelined easily. In July 2006, Israel failed to destroy Hezbollah despite 33 days of relentless bombardment from the air, land, and sea using the most sophisticated weapons that20destroyed much of Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure and killed more than 1,000 civilians. Also, when Lebanon’s cabinet decided on May 6, 2008 that Hezbollah’s communication network should be dismantled and that the head of Beirut’s airport security must be removed, Hezbollah reacted violently forcing the cabinet on May 14, 2008 to reverse the two decisions. In the aftermath of this showdown, government and opposition representatives reached on May 21, 2008 in Doha, Qatar a power-sharing agreement in which the Hezbollah-led opposition increased its seats in the cabinet from six to eleven out of 30 seats; winning a veto power over the cabinet decisions.
Syria objects to Saudi Arabia’s political encroachment of Lebanon. Syria and Lebanon have been over the millennia one society. Natural Syria has always signified Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. A look at the map shows why. Lebanon, a small land of 10,230 square kilometers, is surrounded by Syria from all sides (375 kilometers), the Mediterranean Sea to the West (225 kilometers) and a strip of land to the south bordering Israel (79 kilometers). Less than two-hour car ride separates Damascus from Beirut. Many of the families in Beirut and Tripoli, for example, have branches in Damascus and Homs. Syrians and Lebanese share the Arabic language, values, customs, habits, food, music, let alone centuries of being ruled as one entity. They became two separate states after the French mandate ended in the mid 1940s.
Syria fears that threats=2 0to its own national security could come from Lebanon in two ways. First, Damascus worries that a Saudi controlled government in Lebanon would compromise the defenses of Syria’s own border with Israel. Given their contiguous geography, the military defenses of the Syrian and Lebanese fronts need, in Syria’s view, to be closely coordinated if the Syrian front is to remain viable. Post 9/11, Riyadh’s intentions and policies became suspect. Under such conditions, Syria would strive to keep Lebanon’s southern border from falling under the control of a Saudi controlled government in Beirut.
Secondly, Syria considers Wahhabi extremism and intolerance towards other Islamic sects and religions as a threat to Syria’s age-old religious and ethnic harmony. To Syria’s ruling Alawites, Wahhabi belief that the Alawites, indeed all Shiites, are non-Muslim heretics could endanger the very existence of the Alawites and their regime. To most Syrians, Wahhabism is a primitive doctrine exploited by the Al-Sauds to subdue the populace in the name of extremist interpretation of Islam; an anathema to Syria’s moderate Hanafi Sunni rite, let alone Syria’s other religions and sects. As such, Syria would resist Saudi Wahhabi attempts to make Lebanon a gateway to Syria. It may be predicted that even if Syria reaches its own peace agreement with Israel in the future, Damascus’ would continue to strive to keep Lebanon free of Wahhabi control. That certain factions amongst Lebanon’s Maronites and m oderate Sunnis, let alone the Druzes, have found it politically convenient to ally themselves with the Wahhabis is like the lamb befriending the wolf.
It ought to be remembered that Wahhabi designs over Syria (and Lebanon) go back to the early days of independence from the French Mandate. In the early 1950s, until the fall of the Baghdad monarchy, the Hashemite kings in Iraq and Jordan were in the way of Wahhabi ambitions. In the late 1950s, Nasser’s Egypt was in the way. To many in Syria, Lebanon is not for sale to Saudi Arabia.
**Elie Elhadj, born in Syria, is a banker with a 30-year career in New York, Philadelphia, London, and Riyadh. He was Chief Executive Officer of a major Saudi Arabian bank throughout most of the 1990s. This article is adapted from his 2005 Ph.D. Dissertation at London University's School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), "Experiments in Water and Food Self-sufficiency in the Middle East: The Consequences of Contrasting Endowments, Ideologies, and Investment Policies in Saudi Arabia and Syria."

Franjieh Willing to Sit with Geagea, Aoun to Close Dossier on Inter-Christian Rift
Naharnet
Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh has revealed efforts by President Michel Suleiman to reconcile warring Lebanese Christian leaders.
In an interview with New TV late Sunday, Franjieh said Suleiman has assigned Bishop Samir Mazloum to hold contacts with the various Christian leaders to arrange a meeting in Baabda. He said the meeting should include, besides himself, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, former President Amin Gemayel and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. Franjieh said that during his latest meeting with Suleiman, the president stressed the need to resolve the Christian-Christian issue. The Marada leader told New TV that he agreed to "sit with Geagea in the presence of Aoun."
Franjieh, who believed inter-Christian reconciliation was more important than parliamentary elections, saw that attempts to "weaken Aoun are apt to weaken the Christian arena." He also expressed a desire to form alliance with former deputy Prime Minister Issam Faris to compete in the 2009 parliamentary elections.
Franjieh said he hopes to meet Faris at the end of this summer in an "effort to convince him to come back to Lebanon and form an alliance for elections."
Beirut, 04 Aug 08, 10:26

3 questions for candidates
Kadima leadership candidates must clarify their positions on Syria, Palestinians
Gilad Sharon Published: 08.04.08, 10:18 / Israel Opinion
A note to whoever is elected to lead Kadima, either a man or a woman: You do not need to continue on the rotten path of your predecessor. It is your right and duty to get rid of this excess baggage and change policy in several areas.
Syria – A terror-sponsoring country that continues to arm Hizbullah, develops weapons of mass destruction, and is a loyal Iranian ally. It also allows terrorists to move into Iraq and hurt our American friends there.
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Syria was ostracized all over the world, yet with our great stupidity we helped end its isolation, so that our leader can get his picture taken with pathetic dictator Assad’s rear-end in the backdrop.
We must not give up the Golan Heights, which is an area of immense importance to our security and water reserves.
Gaza Strip – To my regret, we shall pay a heavy price for our disgraceful agreement with Hamas, which is building up and rearming. They are not wasting time and are smuggling immense amounts of weapons through the land and sea. Of course, these arms will be directed at us. They fire at us here and there, but they make sure to explain to us that these are not terrorists belonging to one group, but rather, to another, as if someone should care who’s firing.
The opening of the crossings and continued electricity and fuel supply while Gilad Shalit is rotting in captivity is a moral failure. Gaza and the West Bank are not Lebanon, and it is possible to jail a large number of Hamas men; the more senior they are, the better. This will make it clear to them that abducting soldiers is not worthwhile, but rather, serves to increase the number of Palestinian prisoners instead of reducing it.
Then we would be able to engage in talks on Shalit’s release from a position of power, with Hamas under pressure and wanting to get rid of him, because the price of his continued captivity would be disastrous for them.
Negotiations with the Palestinians – Let go of this farce. A shelf agreement, what nonsense; Mahmoud Abbas is still going through puberty and lacks any power to make even the smallest concessions in the talks. So what are you saying, we’re supposed to go easy on him because he is too weak and scared that he will be killed if he gives up anything? A leader engaged in talks needs some kind of strength, because in negotiations each party is supposed to give up something.
And how can we even talk about a final-status agreement when the basic conditions required for it are not even close to being implemented – the area is replete with terror groups that have not been dismantled, and the many weapons held by terrorists have not been confiscated. These are minimal conditions that were accepted by the Americans and Palestinians. What folly it would be to waive them, and for what? In order to laud the fact that we’re engaged in some sort of process? As if the process is the essence and goal, rather than a life of peace and tranquility. You do not have to take this twisted path. Do what is good and right for the country and this will win you all the support you want. And by the way, it won’t hurt if you clarified your positions on those issues. How do you want people to support you if they don’t know what you intend to do in relation to the most important issues on the agenda?

Exclusive: Emboldening Terrorists: 'Moderates' Kowtow to HezbollahPrint This
Joel Himelfarb
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/id.781/pub_detail.asp
Make no mistake about it: the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah is a victory for Iran and its allies. The crux of the deal is this: Hezbollah gained the release of five imprisoned Lebanese terrorists in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah in a July 12, 2006, cross-border raid that triggered the 2006 war with the Jewish State. The most immediate impact will be to embolden another Iranian-backed terror group: Hamas, which says it will drive a harder bargain for the return of Israel Defense Force Corporal Gilad Shalit, kidnapped by Hamas in a June 25, 2006, cross-border raid into southern Israel. As a Hamas source told the Israeli Ynet.com news service: "The deal proves that patience and fortitude will lead to us seeing celebrations here [in Gaza] similar to those in Lebanon."
The prisoner exchange occurred two weeks before Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's announcement that he will not be a candidate for re-election, and it is another reminder of his regrettable geopolitical legacy: Olmert's failure to defeat Hezbollah in the Lebanon war two years ago has helped create an emboldened, more dangerous terrorist group. Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak told Vice President Cheney last Monday that the number of missiles in Hezbollah's possession has doubled or tripled since the war two years ago, and their range has been extended significantly. Barak acknowledged the obvious: that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 - the ceasefire resolution which followed the 2006 fighting - did not work. The unavoidable conclusion: Under Olmert's leadership, Israel failed in Lebanon, and last month's prisoner exchange was just the latest chapter of failure there. The highlight of the Israel-Hezbollah exchange was the release of Lebanese Samir Kuntar - who carried out one of the most barbaric terrorist attacks in the history of the Arab-israeli conflict. Kuntar was part of a terror squad which infiltrated the northern Israeli town of Nahariya on April 22, 1979. The terrorists shot and killed a policeman, then broke into an apartment and dragged Danny Haran, a young father, and his 4-year-old daughter onto the beach. Kuntar shot Haran to death in front of the child before smashing her skull with his rifle, killing her as well. The child's mother, who had been hiding in closet during the terrorists' rampage, accidentally smothered her infant to death in an attempt to keep him quiet.
Within Israel, there was deep division over whether to release Kuntar (less so for the other four Lebanese who were members of Hezbollah captured during the 2006 war with Israel.) Since the founding of the state nearly six decades ago, Israel has a tradition of going to extraordinary lengths to secure the return of its soldiers, dead or alive.
The problem is that these prisoner exchanges come with a terrible cost - the release of terrorists who return to the battlefield to kill more Israelis. According to the Almagor Terror Victims Association, a private Israeli group that lobbies on behalf of terror victims, at least 854 of the 6,912 Palestinian terrorists released in confidence-building measures between 1993 and 1999 were subsequently arrested for acts of murder and terrorism. Since the year 2000, 180 Israelis have been murdered and hundreds more injured by terrorists released from Israeli jails. Almagor provides a number of examples, including Abbas ibn Muhammad Alsayd, who after being released from prison in 1996 was involved in perpetrating a series of attacks in which 30 people were murdered and 155 wounded. Another terrorist beneficiary of Israel's generosity was Ramez Sali Abu Salmim, who blew himself up on Sept. 9, 2003, at Cafe Hillel in Jerusalem, just seven months after his release. Seven people were killed and more than 50 wounded in the attack. (For a detailed analysis of this problem, see also "Hizbullah's triumph: The long- term implications of Prisoner Exchanges," by Justus Reid Weiner and Diane Morrison," published July 15, 2008 by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.)
There was no such debate in Lebanon, where Kuntar was welcomed as a conquering hero - with euphoria reminiscent of celebrations that marked the end of World War II in the United States. Kuntar was driven by motorcade to his hometown. He was photographed in Hezbollah military garb and vowed to wage war in the tradition of Imad Mugniyeh, the Hezbollah master terrorist assassinated in Damascus earlier this year, whose "credits" included the deadly 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in which 241 Americans were killed. But the barbarism of his crime did not keep prominent Lebanese politicians, among them "moderates" like Sunni Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, President Michel Suleiman, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, from proclaiming Kuntar a hero and welcoming him back to Lebanon. "I would like to thank all those who contributed to the release and congratulate the resistance [Hezbollah] for this achievement," Suleiman said at an official ceremony welcoming Kuntar home. "To Samir Kuntar and his friends, I say that it's their right to be proud of their people, their country and their resistance. Your return is a new victory."
Ironically, until he was released by Israel, Kuntar was not a member of Hezbollah. While Hezbollah consists almost entirely of Lebanese Shi'ite Muslims, Kuntar is a member of Lebanon's Druze minority, and Hezbollah did not even exist when he murdered the four Israelis in 1979. So, why did so many Lebanese join hard-core Hezbollah supporters in pouring into the streets to welcome home a terrorist who murdered a child by smashing her head against a rock? Part of the reason was simply fear - of Hezbollah. In May, that organization staged a de facto coup that made it the uncontested dominant power in Lebanon. When the Lebanese Cabinet went on record against a secret telecommunications network that Hezbollah was using to spy on its fellow Lebanese and fired a Hezbollah ally who was running the main Beirut airport, Hezbollah launched a mini-blitzkrieg. It took over government buildings and launched military strikes with guns and rockets that destroyed Sunni Muslim militias that tried to defend the government - a raw, brutal display of Hezbollah's military supremacy inside Lebanon.
Within days, the Beirut government capitulated, rescinding the denunciation of Hezbollah's espionage network and reinstating its ally at the airport. The Lebanese crowds demonstrating their reverence for Hezbollah and its new hero, Kuntar, have embraced the terror and savagery represented by Hezbollah and Kuntar - a fact that should be kept in mind with regard to all of the nice-sounding talk about "resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict" that Americans are treated to by media elites and the State Department.
Moreover, Palestinian reaction to Kuntar's release raises serious questions about the substance of efforts by Olmert and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to achieve a peace agreement with "moderate" Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah organization. Palestinian Media Watch, an Israeli organization that monitors the Arab press, reported that Palestinian Authority television and newspapers controlled by Abbas ran hours of broadcasting honoring Kuntar and praising Dalal Mughrabi, a terrorist who died in a 1978 bus hijacking that was the worst terrorist attack in Israel's history. Thirty-seven vacationers, among them 12 children, died in the attack. Her body was released to Lebanon as part of the Kuntar prisoner exchange. PA television, for example, said that Abbas "congratulated [sic] yesterday's exchange of prisoner[s] and bodies of Martyrs. The president sent blessings to Samir Kuntar's family." Fatah spokesman Ahmad Abdel Rahman declared that Fatah "sends warm blessings to Hezbollah" for "their historic victory" over Israel in the 2006 war. The Palestine Liberation Organization ambassador to Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, led a delegation to visit Kuntar in his home village. In an e-mail to WorldNetDaily's Aaron Klein, Zaki repeated his in-person statements to Kuntar, which included the following: "I am proud that this delegation has you in our minds and hearts....You went to Palestine as a hero, and when you left you were a proud man." Zaki called for "victory" in the "struggle to liberate all of Palestine," and said: "If the Palestinians knew how to fight and negotiate like Hezbollah, Israel would have been in huge trouble."
All of this comes from Mahmoud Abbas' "moderate" wing the Palestinian national movement. Olmert and Rice have been deluding themselves by investing their hope for genuine peace in this man.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Joel Himelfarb is an editorial writer for The Washington Times. The views expressed here are his own. Feedback: editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.