LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 23/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16,13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?"They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets."He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God."Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The swords are drawn-By: Lucy Fielder. Al-Ahram Weekly. 22/02/08
Either way, Israel loses. By: Dyab Abou Jahjah. Al-Ahram Weekly. 22/02/08
Syria - annual report 2008.Reporters without borders (press release) - France 22/02/08
Lebanon's politicians talk a lot, but what are they really saying?-The Daily Star. 22/02/08
Hezbollah's Open War.By:Hassan Haydar. 22/02/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 22/08
Moussa Postpones Beirut Trip after Arab League Mission Hits New Obstacles-Naharnet
Geagea: Syria Seeking to Cripple Government in a Bid to Block ...Naharnet
2 Killed, 3 Wounded when Syrian Truck Flipped in Beirut-Naharnet
Welch: Damascus Summit Threatened if No Solution in Lebanon-Naharnet
Israel to Passengers: Please Return to Your Seats-Naharnet
Arab Summit in Jeopardy after Saudi-Syria Crisis over Lebanon-Naharnet
Rights Group Seeks International Probe into Civil War Missing-Naharnet
Syria Rejects to Inform Hizbullah of the Mughniyeh Killing-Naharnet
Head of government: Prime minister Fouad Siniora-Reporters without borders (press release) - France
Aoun: No Use for Meetings if Majority Not Willing to Accept ...Naharnet
Turkish troops launch ground incursion across Iraqi border-AP
Hezbollah head's death act of terror - Italian FM-Ha'aretz,
Assassination Is A Two-Edged Sword-Washington Post
Syria 'rejects Hezbollah's demand'-PRESS TV
Al-Manar awaits details on arrest of Rabat reporter-Daily Star
Kuwait urges citizens to avoid Lebanon after embassy threat-Daily Star
Arab summit 'needs a Christian Lebanese president-Daily Star
Mughniyeh hit accelerates 'certain death' of Israel - Khamenei adviser-Daily Star
Top Muslim clerics warn against sectarian fighting-Daily Star
Solana backs Arab plan to end Lebanese crisis-Daily Star
Syrian Customs touts anti-smuggling efforts-Daily Star
Local rights group demands probe into fate of 'missing' since Civil War-AFP
Lebanon can win big if it starts small-Daily Star
Lebanese crisis could ruin summit in Damascus - Saudi officials-AFP
UNIFIL vows all its troops will continue their mission-Daily Star
Qabbani promotes need to preserve mother tongue-Daily Star
UNIFIL 'pizza men' delight disabled children in Tyre-AFP
More and more Lebanese arming themselves amid fears of renewed civil war, weapons dealers say-AFP
Saniora for Maronite Christian President at Damascus Summit -Naharnet
U.S. Freezes Assets of Assad's Cousin -Naharnet
Syria Rejects to Inform Hizbullah of the Mughniyeh Killing ...Naharnet
Southerners Obsessed by New Conflict with Israel -Naharnet
Kuwait Advises Citizens to Reconsider Traveling to Lebanon After Bomb Threat -Naharnet
Islamic Summit Bans Factional Fighting -Naharnet
US imposes economics sanctions on prominent Syrian businessman-Ha'aretz
Kuwaiti Embassy in Lebanon evacuated following threatening phone call-International Herald Tribune
Kuwait advises citizens not to visit Lebanon-Reuters India
Israel warned Syria over Hezbollah - report-Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Visit of Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr Fouad Siniora, to France ...France Diplomatie
Syria: The Changing Face of Syria-Global Voices Online
Saudi-Syria crisis over Lebanon 'threatens Arab summit'-AFP
Mikati for Electing Suleiman President and Formation of Neutral Cabinet -Naharnet

Israel warned Syria over Hezbollah - report
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Published: 02/21/2008
Israel reportedly warned Syria last week that it would step up attacks against Hezbollah and Hamas.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, during a visit to Ankara last week, asked his Turkish interlocutors to urge Syria to scale back its ties with Hezbollah, the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat reported Thursday. According to the report, Barak made clear that Israel had the Lebanese guerrilla group in its sights and also planned to widen military operations in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.Barak's trip to Turkey coincided with the assassination in Damascus of Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah's   terror chief. Hezbollah blamed Israel, though Jerusalem denied involvement. At the time, Barak declined comment on the killing and, though he confirmed that he had discussed Hezbollah and Hamas with his hosts, did not elaborate on what if any messages had been passed along.

Moussa Postpones Beirut Trip after Arab League Mission Hits New Obstacles
Naharnet/Arab League chief Amr Moussa has reportedly postponed a trip to Beirut after efforts by his assistant Hisham Youssef to reach a settlement to end the Lebanon presidential crisis hit new obstacles. Moussa was expected to arrive in Beirut on Friday to discuss new proposals to implement a three-point Arab League plan. The daily an-Nahar on Friday, however, said Moussa postponed his trip by 48 hours pending additional contacts in Cairo. An Nahar said Moussa's decision to delay his trip came after Youssef informed him that there was no breakthrough in the offing given that each side is committed to its stance. Youssef held a second round of talks on Thursday with the warring factions that failed to result in a settlement to the ongoing crisis.  He left Lebanon for Cairo on Friday to brief Moussa of the outcome of his Beirut talks. "Efforts are underway, but the gaps are still very wide," Youssef told reporters at the airport.
Press reports on Friday said the Hizbullah-led opposition has handed Youssef a list of written demands, including a one-third veto power in a new government.
Other demands emphasized on the distribution of cabinet seats such as the opposition, the ruling majority and the President would each get 10 ministerial posts, a demand rejected by the pro-government March 14 coalition. The significant demand, however, calls for excluding the cabinet ministers representing the President from decision making and also stripping those voting rights, former President Amin Gemayel said.Gemayel said the opposition's new demands were conveyed to him by Youssef on Thursday. "They gave us two choices – either one-third veto power or a government under a three tens formula such as the ministers representing the president are deprived to vote or take part in discussions on any major issue," Gemayel told Marcel Ghanem's Kalam el-Nass talk show on Thursday.
He criticized Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for his "open war" declaration against Israel to avenge the killing of top Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh. "Either we both declare war, or we both support peace," Gemayel said. "It is not acceptable for a party to impose war on others and charge them with treason if they don't agree." Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 08:56

Geagea: Syria Seeking to Cripple Government in a Bid to Block Hariri Tribunal
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea accused Syria of hindering presidential elections in Lebanon and seeking to cripple Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government in a bid to block the international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri and related crimes.
"Syria's policy towards Lebanon is targeting the international tribunal," Geagea said in an interview with Al Arabiya television late Thursday.
"The tribunal is no bargain," he stressed. "The international tribunal would not just reveal the perpetrators of Premier Hariri's assassination, but also all the crimes committed during the past 30 years," Geagea said. He said Syria has tried to broker a settlement concerning the Special Tribunal for Lebanon but "failed."
Geagea denied that the Lebanese Forces was arming men, but claimed that Hizbullah has provided Gen. Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and former cabinet minister Wiam Wahhab's "group" with "some weapons." Geagea ruled out a confrontation between Hizbullah and MP Saad Hariri's Mustaqbal movement, given that both parties "reject this." He said "none" of the factions making up the majority March 14 coalition "has taken the decision to arm itself."
On the bomb threat against the Kuwaiti embassy in Beirut earlier Thursday, Geagea said the mission was threatened "because of its government's financial contribution" to the Hariri tribunal. Geagea said a parliament session scheduled for Feb. 26 to elect a president for Lebanon was unlikely to take place.
"The opposition doesn't want to elect a president under any circumstances," he said, adding that electing a head of state by simple majority remains an option if efforts by the Arab League failed. He said another option was expanding the Saniora government until a settlement is reached. Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 11:52

2 Killed, 3 Wounded when Syrian Truck Flips in Beirut
Naharnet/Two people were killed and three wounded when a Syrian truck ran into a house near the Sayyad roundabout in Hazmiyeh, east of Beirut late Thursday, police reported.They said among the victims was a Lebanese army soldier. A police report said the truck with a Syrian license plate ran into a house belonging to the Semaha family after colliding with a car that was driven by Antoine Shartouni, a Lebanese. Shartouni's Renault 12 station flipped upside-down, killing him instantly, police said.They identified the truck driver as Ahmed Nour al-Khatib, a Syrian who fled to an unknown destination.  Police said a manhunt was launched to arrest the suspect. Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 10:33

Welch: Damascus Summit Threatened if No Solution in Lebanon
Naharnet/U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch has said the Lebanese crisis could put an Arab Summit to be hosted by Syria next month in jeopardy. "I don't see how there can be a successful summit under these circumstances that prevail now in Lebanon," Welch told a press conference at the Foreign Press Center in Washington Thursday. "If it's hosted by Damascus and when there is no solution to the political crisis in Lebanon and many Lebanese blame it on Syria, Syria has a very heavy and important responsibility in this situation," he said. The summit is scheduled to be held on March 29-30.
He said that if the Syrian government were serious in ending the political deadlock in Lebanon, it "would be much more directive and forceful to some of its friends inside of Lebanon about what their obligations and responsibilities are."Lebanon is a very "important agenda item for the region, for the international community, and for the United States," Welch said. "The Lebanese people would like to elect, through their representatives in the parliament, a new president. We think that that moment is long overdue," he said, hoping that a new head of state would be elected during a parliamentary session scheduled for Feb. 26.
"There's no reason it should not go forward. Then after that, a government can be composed and that government, the parliament, and the other responsible people in Lebanon can deal with issues like their election law and other reform measures that a country needs," he told reporters.
He said "there is an unfortunate pattern of outside interference designed to influence the political process in a very negative way in Lebanon."
Welch also reiterated the Bush administration's support for Premier Fouad Saniora's government.
"If a president is not elected, the executive authorities of the government rest with the current government under Prime Minister Saniora. We and others in the region and outside it will continue to support that government," he said.
Asked if he or U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had any plans to visit Lebanon, Welch said: "The United States has sent high-level visitors to Lebanon. We have an Under Secretary of Defense who was just there recently. And I expect that we'll continue to send high-level visitors to Lebanon. I like visiting there myself."
About the consequences of Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh's assassination in Damascus last week, Welch said: "I don't see any intention on the part of Israel to attack Lebanon or, for that matter, any of its neighbors. I doubt the government of Lebanon has any interest in conflict with Israel."
Hizbullah has accused Israel of killing Mughniyeh and declared open war on the Jewish state everywhere in the world.
Welch said Mughniyeh "has a long, very violent history…we understand there's a threat that faces official American interests in the region… We know that there are criminals such as these who would attack us and others. As you know, somebody is attacking and killing innocent Lebanese, including members of the security forces there for who knows what political purpose."
About widening U.S. sanctions against the Damascus regime, Welch said they are "designed to increase the pressure on Damascus to take more responsible positions." "We do this because we are convinced that unless there is clear understanding from everyone in Syria and outside it that there is a cost to these actions, then they may be tempted to continue to pursue them," he told reporters. His comments came as the U.S. Treasury froze the assets of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's cousin Rami Makhluf. Makhluf, a powerful Syrian businessman, "improperly benefits from and aids the public corruption of Syrian regime officials," a Treasury Department statement said in announcing the asset freeze. Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 09:47

Rights Group Seeks International Probe into Civil War Missing
Naharnet/A Lebanese rights group called for an international investigation into the fate of thousands of people who disappeared during the 1975-1990 civil war, saying the government has failed to tackle the issue. "Seventeen years after the end of the conflict and after Syrian troops and the Israeli army have left Lebanon, no serious investigation aimed at shedding light on the fate of thousands of missing persons has been conducted," said a report by the Lebanese Center for Human Rights. The organization said it is demanding "the creation of an international investigative commission in order to determine the fates of the missing as well as the creation of a truth and reconciliation commission". More than 150,000 people were killed during the 15-year war and according to official estimates from 1992, 17,000 people disappeared at the hands of Lebanese militias or the Syrian and Israeli armies during the conflict. The rights group said it believed that figure was an over-estimate, although it said it believed hundreds of Lebanese were still detained "in secret or in inhumane conditions in Syrian prisons".
Its report comes amid high tension in Lebanon, which is grappling with its worst political crisis since the end of the civil war, raising fears of renewed sectarian strife.
"The Lebanese government is still not ready, technically or politically, to address this issue which implicates many people in power today," LCHR Secretary General Wadih al-Asmar told AFP. The report also said that "to this day, no real investigation has been conducted to determine the locations of mass graves, the number of which remains unknown." For three years now, relatives of the missing have staged a daily protest outside U.N. headquarters in Beirut.
LCHR said that while it supports the creation of a tribunal to try those behind the 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri, "all the victims, no matter who they are, have a right to truth and justice.""Do we have to accept that only the political leaders have the right to truth and justice, while the ordinary citizen must be deprived of their fundamental rights for more than 30 years?" it said.(AFP) Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 08:01

Aoun: No Use for Meetings if Majority Not Willing to Accept Partnership
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun said there was no use for a quartet meeting if the pro-government ruling majority was not willing to accept partnership with the opposition. "If they are coming to the meeting to reject settlements and partnership, I advise them to stay home," Aoun said in an interview with the pro-opposition al-Akhbar daily on Friday. "I tell (government) loyalists that if they are willing to respond to our call for partnership, we are ready," Aoun said. "Otherwise, let them not bother to set dates for meetings." Aoun said that what he has heard from Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and MP Saad Hariri was "not good news," adding that the two leaders backed down on previous agreements. He stressed that the Hizbullah-led opposition will not accept to be deprived of an influential role in the new cabinet. On the different points of view within the opposition over representation in a new government, Aoun said he is committed to "ensuring participation." "If the three tens (formula) with some guarantees ensures that participation, then we (opposition) are for it," he said.
On the guarantees he is demanding, Aoun said they include the president's commitment to adopt consensus policies and a two-thirds of the quorum required to approve action as well as the distribution of portfolios in a national unity government and the adoption of the electoral law based on the 1960 law, in addition to clauses related to the government plan of action. Aoun defended remarks made by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah following the assassination of the party's commander Imad Mughniyeh. He said Nasrallah had "the right to defend himself, particularly since Israeli leaders over and over again declared their intention to liquidate him as well as other Hizbullah officials." That was a reference to Nasrallah's "open war" declaration against Israel. Beirut, 22 Feb 08, 13:00

Hezbollah's Open War
Hassan Haydar
Al-Hayat - 21/02/08//
Whoever assassinated Imad Mughniyeh, and the suspicion is basically pointing at Israel and its security agencies until the the promised Syrian investigation confirms this, has given Hezbollah the opportunity to declare that the war of July 2006 is still "continuing and open" and hence far from over. This response may be seen as a stunned and angry reaction to the harsh blow that targeted one of the party's leaders who as revealed for the first time that Mughniyeh was the head of the Jihad (military) Council in Hezbollah, but the evidence indicates otherwise.
Hezbollah has recently withdrawn its recognition of UN Security Council resolution 1701 and denied its approval of the seven-point plan that ended the war despite audiovisual documentation of this approval as chief negotiator Prime Minister Fouad Siniora put it. In this context, the announcement implies that party has decided it is time to override the practical implications of the resolution on the ground, that is, the closing of the South Lebanon front that resulted from the deployment of international forces alongside the Lebanese Army.
Some interpreted Nasrallah's comments to imply that the party will probably resort to other "battlefields" since the south Lebanon front is now closed, especially since it perceived that Israel has violated the geographic framework of the conflict. Most likely, however, the response to Mughniyeh's assassination will only come in Lebanon and through its borders by means of an assault that will transcend local and international obstacles to prove that Lebanon remains the party's open battlefield for confrontation with Israel regardless of the consequences. This response would also reactivate the Syrian-Iranian strategy since both powers considered the closing of the South Lebanon front a harsh punishment that their ally had to concede under the pressure of temporary circumstances that are no longer present.
Hezbollah will not resort to a strike outside its preferred "battlefield" because for a quarter century it has been keen to refuse to acknowledge Mughniyeh's membership in the party or that the fact that he was fighting and moving in its name. First, Mughniyeh was linked directly to the central leadership in Tehran beyond the party hierarchy of command. Secondly, the party wanted to deny any suspicion that it was involved in terror in the eyes of the world, especially Europe which still disagrees over classifying Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. In fact, a few in Europe have repeatedly tried to justify the continued dealing with Hezbollah or at least refraining from taking toward it a radical position similar to the American stance. Consequently, the party disclosed the significant role and considerable stature of Mughniyeh only after his death. Hence, while the assassination has forced Hezbollah to acknowledge Mughniyeh, it will not compel it to abandon its keenness on maintaining bridges, even if weak, with part of the west.
The second chief reason is that closing the south Lebanon front has weakened the Syrian-Iranian alliance and its dependents because it isolated developments in Lebanon from those in Gaza, where another ally, Hamas, is suffering from the international and Arab isolation which has gotten worse following the recent violation of the Egyptian border. Hamas now faces an Israeli decision to respond with continued and violent military action that would squeeze it in a difficult corner since it has no practical means to make a qualitative response to ease the grumbling of its besieged supporters. At the same time, Hamas is unable to end the disaffection with Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority otherwise it would be admitting the failure of its coup in Gaza and would be forced to give up any gains it made from it.
With the obstruction of the council of ministers and parliament, the paralysis of the central district of the capital, and the imposed and extended presidential void, reactivating the Lebanese front still requires "neutralizing" the only remaining domestic element that can prevent dragging the country into the affairs of regional alliances, namely the Lebanese army. This path however was already started at Nahr Al-Bared, continued with the events in Mar Mikhail, and will continue with the attempts to preoccupy the army and exhaust it with the street fights and the wars of burning tires

The swords are drawn
By: Lucy Fielder
© Al-Ahram Weekly.
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2008/885/re81.htm
The chasm between the Western-backed government and Hizbullah-led opposition in Lebanon has never been deeper, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut
The funeral of assassinated Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyah
Why was Mughniyah important?
Either way, Israel loses
Last Thursday, huge crowds turned out to commemorate the third anniversary of Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination, with the now-familiar flag-waving and anti-Syrian commentary. Sectarian rabble-rousing and confrontational cries, some of which welcomed civil war, were part of the tactic used to draw the crowds, which some 14 March ministers put at one million with a further half million held up on the way. More modest estimates were in the tens of thousands, however.
After the usual strident speeches, particularly from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, delivered behind rain-spattered bullet-proof glass, came the unveiling of a towering statue of Al-Hariri and an obelisk recording his sayings. A flame monument, lit by torches, now marks the seafront site of the explosion.
Unabashed mobilisation for the event, including billboards showing Al-Hariri with references to the need to turn out in numbers for "our" Lebanon, ensured a larger turnout than last year's commemoration, despite driving rain that forced demonstrators to huddle beneath umbrellas.
But it was Sayed Hassan Nasrallah's throwing down of the gauntlet to Israel that grabbed the headlines as across town more crowds thronged the streets of the southern suburbs to honour Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyah, assassinated in Damascus two days earlier. Israel denied the killing but had been hunting Mughniyah for two decades, and Hizbullah holds it responsible.
By declaring that if Israel wanted an open war it would have one, Nasrallah made clear that the rules of the game have changed. But after three years of political crisis and a two-month vacancy in the presidential palace, many Lebanese fear that any new chapter in Hizbullah's fight with Israel will have a marked impact on Lebanon. Some analysts predict a return to the tactics of Hizbullah's more radical days.
"The swords are drawn now, but I think we may see a softening in the 14 March position, because Hizbullah is getting serious and sees it as time to act, not react," said Ahmed Moussalli, an expert on political Islam at the American University in Beirut (AUB).
For Charles Harb, however, a social psychologist and political analyst at the AUB, the events of last week in fact changed very little -- given that both sides hardened their positions long ago -- apart from increasing speculation in some quarters about another Israel-Lebanon war. "A lot of this political rhetoric is meaningless, since many of the decisions concerning Lebanon are cooked in kitchens outside the country," he said.
Over the past two weeks, there has been increasing talk of a "divorce", with Jumblatt declaring that he could no longer live with Hizbullah and Nasrallah responding that anyone who wanted a divorce, or federalism, could "leave and go to stay with his masters in Washington and Israel". Amid such rhetoric, and given that neither side is prepared to back down on its positions, Saad Al-Hariri's "extended hand" to the opposition was not greeted as sincere by Hizbullah.
Harb believes that talk of divorce is symptomatic of a growing and dangerous trend in Lebanon to mark out one's opponent as "the other". "The wound in Beirut is deepening every day," he said. "Even if there is a solution, this rift is going to take years to heal. All this talk of 'us versus them' and an 'amicable divorce' is destructive, because it allows you to see the other as a disposable element that you can live without."
Harb argues that the two sides in Lebanon increasingly perceive each other as an existential threat, complete with stereotypes that emphasise their differences. To this is added insecurity and a sense of deprivation exacerbated by high prices, high unemployment, inflation and dwindling government services, most notably in electricity supply. "All of this puts some people in the mood for a fight," he said. "All the ingredients are there for a civil war, or at least more skirmishes, deaths and shootings."
This weekend, the latest of many street fights in the mixed Sunni-Shia flashpoints around Ras Al-Nabeh, Noueiry, Basta and Corniche Al-Mazraa highlighted the explosive combination present on Beirut's streets. Young Sunni supporters of Al-Hariri's Future Movement and Shia supporters of Amal and, to a lesser extent, Hizbullah brawled on the streets with sticks, stones and in a few cases guns. By the time the army had positioned itself between the two sides, at least 14 were injured. Accusations were traded, while some said external parties stirred the violence.
Three weeks ago, seven people were shot dead when the army cracked down on a protest against power cuts in the southern suburb of Chiah, although the exact circumstances remain under investigation.
Columnist Sateh Noureddine suggested in leftist daily As-Safir that the only way out of strife was a state of emergency in Beirut -- in effect to declare it a military zone. "The capital can no longer wait for the opposition and ruling team to reach a political accord that is becoming more difficult by the day, or for the two teams to reach the conclusion that they should postpone the battle to topple the Syrian regime and to eliminate Syria from existence, at least for a while," he wrote.
Apparently spooked, the Future Movement, Amal and Hizbullah sat down with the army and police immediately after the fighting and agreed to coordinate on the ground while ostensibly giving the army their blessing to arrest troublemakers.
Meanwhile, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa is due back in Lebanon this week and has organised a third quartet meeting between himself, Al-Hariri, his ally former president Amin Gemayel, and Aoun 24 February, two days before the 15th scheduled presidential vote. Moussa has stated openly that the Arab initiative has not been changed. Although both sides still nominally agree on the candidacy of Army Chief Michel Suleiman for the position of president, the division of cabinet seats remains a bone of contention.
In comments roundly condemned as unhelpful, the US State Department's senior advisor on Iraq, David Satterfield, said this week Washington did not back the Arab initiative, sardonically asking what that initiative was. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, the main Christian in the 14 March team, summed up his side's position, saying that the Arab summit was the deadline for a solution, expecting Syria to "stop blocking" a settlement before then.
Some observers say the presidential vote has more chance this time. "I think there's a bigger push," Harb said, citing Saudi Arabia's advice to its citizens to stay away from Lebanon, Egypt's warning that it would not attend the summit if there was no Lebanese head of state, and Saad Al-Hariri's optimism, in his speech to commemorate his father's assassination, that there would soon be a president. "All these factors are aspects of pressure on Syria: 'If you want a successful summit, there had better be a president.'" Hizbullah in the past has said that even its Damascus ally could not force it to relinquish its demands for a veto-wielding third of cabinet seats.
Things may get worse before they get better. Deadly sectarian riots in January 2007 prompted fears of civil war, but also forced leaders on both sides to step back from the brink. With last week's security meeting, there are signs that this is happening again. But deeper agreement on what it is to be Lebanese, and on the nature of threats to national security and how to face those threats, remains as elusive as ever.
Why was Mughniyah so important?
The Americans described Imad Mughniyah as one of the deadliest enemies of the United States. Even before 9/11, he had more American blood on his hands than any other militant in the world. Many in the Arab world had not heard of him before because he never gave interviews or speeches, and changed his appearance several times through plastic surgery to avoid Israeli reprisal. The Americans had a $25 million bounty on his head, and he was on the FBI's most wanted list. Mughniyah was accused of masterminding the April 1983 bombing of the US Embassy and six months later the bombing of the US Marines Barracks in Beirut during the days of Ronald Reagan.
Born in Tyre in July 1962, Mughniyah grew up in a family of farmers and went on to study at the American University in Beirut (AUB) but dropped out during his freshman year to join the Force 17 Unit of Yasser Arafat, during the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) years in Beirut. He was close to Abu Ammar and learned military tactics at the hands of Arafat's right- hand-man Abu Hassan Salameh (killed by a car bomb in Beirut in 1979). During the Israeli invasion of Beirut and the exodus of Arafat in 1982, Mughniyah was charged with transferring arms from the PLO to their Amal allies in South Lebanon. Mughniyah stayed behind, becoming a member of Amal under Nabih Berri's leadership, then Hizbullah. One of his tasks was protecting the life of Hizbullah's Lebanese "godfather" Grand Ayatollah Mohamed Hussein Fadlallah.
This is when Mughniyah became good friends with Nasrallah, who was two years his senior. Robert Baer, an ex-CIA official who has been tracking Mughniyah for years, commented: "This is a personal loss for Nasrallah. They are basically the ones who made Hizbullah." In 1983, he played an important role in driving the Americans out of Beirut, with the twin attacks on the US Embassy and the Marines (the first act killed 63 people, the second, 241). In 1985 he led the hijacking of a TWA airliner in Beirut. When Hizbullah Secretary-General Abbas Al-Musawi was killed in February 1992, Nasrallah succeeded him and promised to avenge him. It is believed that Mughniyah made that happen, orchestrating the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, which killed 29 people.
In 2006, he is believed to have played a part in the border operation that led to the capturing of two Israeli soldiers, an act that triggered the latest war between Hizbullah and Israel. The State Department reacted to his death saying: "The world is a better place without this man in it. He was a cold-blooded killer, a mass murderer and a terrorist responsible for countless innocent lives lost." Magnus Ranstorp, the research director at the Swedish National Defense College, commented: "This is as big a blow as it gets for Hizbullah security. It's even bigger than killing Nasrallah."
Many in Lebanon believe that Mughniyah was killed by the Americans because in recent months he had been operating out of Basra with the aim of re- structuring the Mahdi Army in Iraq. He had been charged with revamping the troops of Muqtada Al-Sadr into a more disciplined military force, modelled after Hizbullah. This might explain why Sadr has been calling for repeated freezes on activities of the Mahdi Army, with the aim of filtering and fine-tuning the troops into a Hizbullah-like force. According to Time, US officials acknowledge that American intelligence personnel had been tracking Mughniyah for the past five years. The Americans have accused him (although this has not been proven or mentioned elsewhere) of collaborating with Osama bin Laden and Ayman El-Zawahri in Sudan, and transferring Al-Qaeda fighters from Afghanistan to Iraq in 2003. He was also accused of having worked with Mohamed Al-Islambouli, the brother of the infamous Khaled Al-Islambouli, who assassinated Egyptian president Anwar El-Sadat in 1981.
Another version of his murder is that Israel eliminated him to incite Hizbullah to retaliate. They know that Nasrallah will not let this pass, and want to goad him to take action, so they can launch another war on Lebanon that would right the wrongs of Olmert's adventure in 2006. Additionally, the US media will welcome retaliation by Nasrallah and use it to blame him and both Syria and Iran of being supporters of terrorism and instability in the Middle East.
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved

Either way, Israel loses
 By: Dyab Abou Jahjah*
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2008/885/op24.htm
The aftermath of Hizbullah's certain response to the assassination of Mughniyah may lead to a regional war that would end the Zionist project, writes Dyab Abou Jahjah*
The assassination of Imad Mughniyah may mark the beginning of a new era in the region: an era of total confrontation with no boundaries and no taboos. The reaction of Hizbullah to the assassination of its military chief of staff was never going to be mild, and the Israelis knew that. They knew that the response would be painful and still they went for it. Did they believe that denying responsibility would confuse the resistance and prevent it from retaliating? Surely not; rather, they want the possibility of considering any Hizbullah strike as an unprovoked act of aggression.
Hizbullah, however, is likely to respond using the same tactic; that is, hitting hard and not claiming responsibility. Indeed, any response to the assassination of Mughniyah can by no means be a classical response. The resistance cannot respond by launching missiles or firing on a tank. A proper response, from the perspective of the resistance, can only be to eliminate an Israeli personality of the same stature of Mughniyah. As Sayed Hassan Nasrallah pointed out in his latest speech, the rules of the game, which confined the Arab-Israeli confrontation to the spheres of Lebanese and occupied Palestinian territories, have been breached by the Israelis. In Nasrallah's words, "If you want this kind of open war, then let it be an open war."
Killing Mughniyah does not necessary mean that Israel wants "this kind of open war", because the Zionists realise very well that Hizbullah has the logistical and organisational structure to hit them hard anywhere, and they are not overly keen on indulging in a bloody cycle of tit-for-tat assassinations. Hizbullah, for its part, is also not in favour of such a scenario, preferring to confine its activities to politics and classical resistance based on guerrilla tactics. However, when Israel killed Mughniyah in Syria it gave Hizbullah licence, as well as an imperative, to respond, at least once, outside of the usual frame of the conflict. That one hit is very likely to come in an Arab country, maybe a country that is known to support Mossad activities and even to lend the services of its own security apparatus to the Israelis regularly.
After its response is executed, Hizbullah expects Israel to go back to the traditional rules of the conflict. This means that any reaction or retaliation for the loss that Israel will suffer -- and they as well as we know that this loss is coming -- will be a declaration of classical war whether limited or open. If the Israelis chose to opt for another assassination outside of Lebanon's borders, we could consider that we have entered a time of open war with the whole world as its theatre of operation.
The options for Israel are very limited. They might launch another attack on Lebanon, but that will lead them to another defeat. Hizbullah is more powerful now than in July 2006, and as Nasrallah said in his recent speech, tens of thousands of well- trained and highly motivated warriors await prospective invaders. We should recall, also, that Nasrallah, who is proven credible in his assessments and predictions, has declared on previous occasions that the coming battle will witness a dramatic surprise that "will change the course of the whole conflict". This surprise could be double: on the one hand, the resistance may have acquired anti-aircraft missile systems capable of limiting Israel's air superiority (some reports have suggested that Hizbullah has acquired Sam 18 missiles through Syria from a former Soviet republic), and on the other, that the resistance would not only defend Lebanon but also enter into Palestine, liberate territory and defend it successfully. This would force Israel to desperate measures and perhaps lead to total war in the region implicating not only Syria and Iran but also Egypt. And this would obviously change the course of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Far from speculation, the coming exchange of blows between the Lebanese resistance and Israel will undoubtedly be a crucial turning point, establishing a balance of terror that no party is willing to breach or opening the way to the final chapter of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The latter would be the beginning of the end of the Zionist colonial project in the Arab east, if we believe what Nasrallah says. Until now, one must admit that this man, unlike his Israeli counterparts, is not known for empty rhetoric.
* The writer is a Lebanese activist.
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Syria - annual report 2008
Area: 185,180 sq.km
Population: 19,510,000
Language: Arabic
Head of state: President Bashar al-Assad
The government continued to carefully stifle all sign of dissent in 2007 though the country is traditionally by turns rebuffed by the international community and then invited back in. President Al-Assad was re-elected in May for seven years by an official 97% of the vote and has still not ended the country’s 45-year state of emergency.
The number of media outlets in Syria since President Bashar el-Assad came to power in 2000 has increased and new privately-owned general-interest weeklies and dailies have appeared alongside several entertainment TV stations. But expansion has not brought diversity and the new outlets must still avoid a great number of taboo subjects. Journalists have to tightly censor themselves for fear of being thrown into Adra prison (in suburban Damascus) where most political prisoners, including dissident journalists, are held.
Journalist and human rights activist Michel Kilo, 67, in prison since May 2006, was sentenced on 13 May 2007 (after a sham trial) to three years imprisonment for “weakening national sentiment.” Activists Mahmud Issa and Anwar al-Bunni, arrested the same time as Kilo for urging an end to Syrian interference in neighbouring Lebanon, were respectively jailed for three years (also in May) and five years (in April) on similar charges. Seven members of the opposition pro-democracy National Council for the Damascus Declaration were arrested in December, including freelance journalist Ali Abdallah on 17 December. He was jailed for six months in 2006 for “criticising the emergency laws” and in January 2008 was being held at Adra prison waiting to be told the new charges against him.
Bloggers seemed less restricted in 2007 but filtering of online traffic significantly increased. Three cyber-dissidents jailed since 2006 were freed in 2007, but at the start of 2008, access to about 100 websites was still blocked, including the popular Hotmail, Facebook and YouTube and many human rights websites. The regime uses a filter called Thundercache to spy on Web traffic, eliminate viruses and prevent video pirating. Access is blocked to Arab-language opposition sites and to material about Syria’s Kurdish minority.