LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 30/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16,13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?"They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets."He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God."Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
U.S. escalating covert operations against Iran: report -Reuters 29/06/08
Beyond the Government.By:Walid Choucair  Dar Al-Hayat 29.06.08
Who's Planning Our Next War.By: Pat Buchanan 29/06/08
Another Israel-Hezbollah Prisoner Swap? By: P. David Hornik. FrontPage 29/08
The Kurds, Israel, and the Future of Syria.By: Joseph Puder. FrontPage 29/06/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 29/08
Olmert: Captive Israeli soldiers in Lebanon dead-The Associated Press
Moussa: Mines Push Lebanon to Red Lines-Naharnet
Israeli cabinet weigh Hezbollah prisoner swap-AFP
Tension runs high in northern Lebanon-AFP
Preferring Hamas and Hezbollah-Ha'aretz
Nicola: March 14 Suffers from 'Aoun Complex'-Naharnet
Hassan Khalil Ready to Facilitate Efforts to Form Cabinet-Naharnet
Hizbullah Denies Deploying Gunmen in Sannine Mount
-Naharnet
Iran Waves Hizbullah Stick in Israel's Face
-Naharnet
Suleiman Hopeful Cabinet Will Be Announced in 48 Hours
-Naharnet
Ex-spy Chief: Israel Has a Year to Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program-Naharnet
Aoun Embarrasses Opposition-Naharnet
Suleiman Hopeful New Cabinet Will Be Announced Within 48 Hours-Naharnet
Hizbullah's Raad Hopeful on New Cabinet-Naharnet
Iran Warns Israel It Could Wreak Havoc with Hizbullah, Hamas Support
-Naharnet

Israel mulls Lebanon prisoner swap
AFP/29/06/08
Israel's cabinet is debating a prisoner swap with Hezbollah, the Lebanese opposition group with which it fought a war in 2006 following their capture.
Under the deal, Hezbollah would return what Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, acknowledged for the the first time on Sunday, would be the bodies of the troops. The remains would be swapped for the release of five living Lebanese prisoners. Olmert was quoted as telling his cabinet on Sunday: "Our initial theory was that the soldiers were alive ... Now we know with certainty there is no chance that that is the case." The prime minister said that the exchange was "a matter of the highest moral order". "Despite all hesitations, after weighing the pros and the cons, I support the agreement."
German mediation
Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah have been handled by a UN-appointed German mediator. Samir Qantar is the highest-profile Lebanese prisoner that would be released, who is currently serving multiple life terms for an attack on an Israeli town in 1979. In addition to Qantar, Israel is also supposed to release four other Lebanese prisoners and the bodies of around 10 Hezbollah fighters. Hezbollah had demanded the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, but Israel said it was only willing to release between five and 10, a senior Israeli government official said on Sunday. In parallel to the Hezbollah talks, Olmert's government is trying, via Egypt, to recover Gilad Shalit, a soldier captured by Hamas in Gaza around the same period. Olmert in 2006 ruled out any negotiations for the captured soldiers, launching a military offensive in Gaza and a 34-day war in Lebanon. More than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, died in the conflict, as well as 157 Israelis.

U.S. escalating covert operations against Iran: report
NEW YORK (Reuters) 29/06/08 - U.S. congressional leaders agreed late last year to President George W. Bush's funding request for a major escalation of covert operations against Iran aimed at destabilizing its leadership, according to a report in The New Yorker magazine published online on Sunday.
The article by reporter Seymour Hersh, from the magazine's July 7 and 14 issue, centers around a highly classified Presidential Finding signed by Bush which by U.S. law must be made known to Democratic and Republican House and Senate leaders and ranking members of the intelligence committees.
"The Finding was focused on undermining Iran's nuclear ambitions and trying to undermine the government through regime change," the article cited a person familiar with its contents as saying, and involved "working with opposition groups and passing money."
Hersh has written previously about possible administration plans to go to war to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, including an April 2006 article in the New Yorker that suggested regime change in Iran, whether by diplomatic or military means, was Bush's ultimate goal.
Funding for the covert escalation, for which Bush requested up to $400 million, was approved by congressional leaders, according to the article, citing current and former military, intelligence and congressional sources.
Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. U.S. Special Operations Forces have been conducting crossborder operations from southern Iraq since last year, the article said.
These have included seizing members of Al Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of "high-value targets" in Bush's war on terrorism, who may be captured or killed, according to the article.
But the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which include the Central Intelligence Agency, have now been significantly expanded, the article said, citing current and former officials.
Many of these activities are not specified in the new finding, and some congressional leaders have had serious questions about their nature, it said.
Among groups inside Iran benefiting from U.S. support is the Jundallah, also known as the Iranian People's Resistance Movement, according to former CIA officer Robert Baer. Council on Foreign Relations analyst Vali Nasr described it to Hersh as a vicious organization suspected of links to al Qaeda.
The article said U.S. support for the dissident groups could prompt a violent crackdown by Iran, which could give the Bush administration a reason to intervene.
None of the Democratic leaders in Congress would comment on the finding, the article said. The White House, which has repeatedly denied preparing for military action against Iran, and the CIA also declined comment.
The United States is leading international efforts to rein in Iran's suspected effort to develop nuclear weapons, although Washington concedes Iran has the right to develop nuclear power for civilian uses.

Olmert: Captive Soldiers Probably Dead, Exchange Must Go Through
by Hillel Fendel -Arutz Sheva
The Cabinet is about to conclude a five-hour session and vote to approve the proposed exchange of five Hizbullah terrorists for two abducted Israeli soldiers. The families of the two abducted soldiers - IDF reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, who Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said are probably dead - were invited to the end of the meeting, before the vote.
The proposed deal involves the release of five Hizbullah prisoners from Israeli prison and ten Hizbullah corpses, for IDF reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser. The two abducted soldiers have long been assumed to be dead - but now Prime Minister Olmert has all but confirmed this.
Among the five Hizbullah prisoners is Samir Kuntar, who not only murdered three Israelis and caused the death of a fourth - members of the Haran family and a policeman - but is also considered Israel's final hope of ever receiving information on captured IAF navigator Ron Arad. Arad was captured after his plane was felled over Lebanon in 1986 and was held by various terrorist groups; he was ultimately probably taken to Iran, and his whereabouts have been unknown for years.
Olmert, who said before the meeting that he himself is not sure how he will vote, took a strong position during the Cabinet session. He recommended outright that the ministers approve the exchange, and said that Israel's information is that the two IDF soldiers were killed during the abduction, or shortly afterwards.
"It is a difficult dilemma," Olmert told his aides this morning, "but when I go to the Cabinet meeting, I'll know how to vote."
On the one hand, his top aide Yoram Turbovitz opposes the deal, as do the chiefs of the Mossad and General Security Service. On the other hand, Olmert has promised the Goldwasser and Regev families that he would do everything he could to return their loved ones, and diplomat Ofer Dekel has been working for months to consummate the deal.
At the start of the meeting, Olmert said he was torn by doubts: "Even those with the utmost responsibility, such as those in a position like mine, have the right to have doubts and deliberate, as well as the duty to do so, because this decision will have repercussions on our lives in the years to come... We have to be able to look directly in the eyes of the Regev, Goldwasser, Arad, Haran and Shalit families, as well as those of the citizens of Israel, and say that we made the decision with a clear conscience."
The meeting will begin with a security briefing: Mossad chief Meir Dagan and Shabak (General Security Service) head Yuval Diskin expressed their strong objection to the deal, while IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin support it.
"Deal Will Encourage Terrorists to Kill Abductees"
Opponents of the deal, including security experts, politicians, the ?Almagor terrorism-victim organization and the Bereaved Parents Forum, say that a deal for dead bodies "would encourage the terror organizations to kill their abductees in the future, and also directly endangers Gilad Shalit who is being held by Hamas." Shabak chief Yuval Diskin has said the same.
Shas, Labor in Favor
The Cabinet ministers are expected to approve the deal, especially now that Olmert has come out in favor. The ministers of Shas, the Pensioners, and Labor have said they will support it, as have some Kadima members. Defense Minister Sha'ul Mofaz, head of the Labor Party, is among those who will raise their hand in favor, having said, "We have a moral obligation to bring the boys home, dead or alive." He admitted last week that the deal is "problematic."
Barak's party colleague Welfare Minister Yitzchak Herzog said he would vote for the exchange if he does not hear "anything significantly different during the security briefing than I have heard over the media."
Vice Premier Chaim Ramon (Kadima) said the deal is reasonable, as "receiving Goldwasser and Regev is for sure, while receiving information on Arad is only a maybe..."
One Cabinet minister said, "You'll notice that we have never received a live body from Hizbullah in any prisoner exchange, except for Elchanan Tenenbaum; the three soldiers kidnapped in 2000, and apparently the current two as well, were returned dead."
Industry and Trade Minister Eli Yishai (Shas) actually used this information to support the deal. He noted that back in 1996, the Netanyahu government released 45 Hizbullah prisoners and the remains of 141 Hizbullah terrorists, in exchange for the remains of two Israeli soldiers - Yossi Fink and Rahamim Alsheikh - who had been kidnapped by Hizbullah ten years earlier. Yishai did not mention that 17 Israel-allied South Lebanese Army prisoners were also freed by Hizbullah in the deal.
Beilin: Against
Yossi Beilin, former leader of the left-wing Meretz party, noted that in 1998, Israel returned 40 terrorists corpses and 60 Lebanese prisoner for the body of Itamar Ilya, one of the 11 IDF commandos killed in a terrorist ambush in Lebanon in September 1997. "It was a grave mistake then, and it will be a mistake to repeat it again now," Beilin wrote.
Rabbi Ronsky Expected to Rule That They are Dead
Opponents of the deal have also demanded that the government not vote on the exchange until IDF Chief Rabbi Avi Ronsky issues a ruling as to whether Goldwasser and Regev can be considered dead according to Jewish Law. They noted that it is absurd that the government does not even know whether the soldiers to be returned are alive or dead.
Rabbi Ronsky is reportedly very close to announcing that the soldiers are, in fact, dead.
Karnit Goldwasser, the wife of Ehud Goldwasser and currently in total limbo in that she does not know if she is married or a widow, said, "We ask that the ministers vote in favor of the deal, as this is the last stop in our drive to return Udi [Ehud] and Eldad."
The Media's Role
This emotional appeal opened the popular "It's All Talk" Israel Radio morning radio show, hosted by Yaron Dekel - who prompty accused the Maariv and Yediot Acharonot newspapers of mounting a public campaign in favor of the deal. Political Science Prof. Mordechai Kedar of Bar Ilan University and veteran journalist Mati Golan agreed; Kedar said the media had "brought Israel to its knees," and Golan added that the owners and editors lack the necessary knowledge to take such responsibility upon themselves.

Iran Aims Shahab-3B Missiles at Dimona
by Hana Levi Julian -Arutz Sheva
Iran has aimed its Shahab-3B ballistic missiles at the State of Israel, according to a report published Sunday in a British newspaper.
The Times of London reports that the missiles were moved on to launch pads and are reportedly focused on several targets in the Jewish State, among them the nuclear reactor in the Negev city of Dimona.
The Shahab-3B can be armed with a variety of different types of explosives, including conventional high explosives and submunitions as well as chemical, biological, radiological dispersion and, potentially, nuclear warheads. The missile, an "enhanced" version of the Shahab rocket, is believed to have been produced in ranges of approximately 1,300-1,500 km and 2,000 km, according to Jane's Defence News, bring it well within range of Israel's cities.
The move came following a large-scale exercise earlier this month in which the Israel Air Force flew en masse over the Mediterranean in an apparent rehearsal for a threatened attack on Iran's nuclear installations.
Defense sources quoted by the newspaper said the missiles were readied for a counterstrike should Israel attack Iran.
General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard which operates the missiles, threatened over the weekend that "Iran has many different ways to strike worldwide… and the important part of this is based on our missiles."
Israel has repeatedly warned that Iran is preparing a nuclear weapon of mass destruction, and has stated that it will not tolerate a threat to its existence.
Shabtai Shavit, the former director of Israel's international intelligence agency, the Mossad, said in an interview with the British Telegraph newspaper published Sunday that the window of opportunity to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is rapidly closing.
The intelligence chief estimated that the Islamic Republic would achieve its goal of developing such a weapon within "somewhere around a year."
He added that the sooner Israel made plans for that probability, the better off the Jewish State would be. "As an intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell you we should be prepared," he said. "We should do whatever necessary on the defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military action."
Shavit said it would be preferable to have American support for a strike on Iran, if Israel is forced to fall back on that option, but predicted that US presidential elections might eliminate that possibility.
"If (Republican candidate John) McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to go for it. If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for it, at least not in his first term in the White House," said, Shavit.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed numerous times over the past two years that he intends to annihilate the State of Israel. He has referred to the Jewish State as a "malignant cancerous growth," which he has repeatedly said he intends to "wipe off the map."


 

Moussa: Mines Push Lebanon to Red Lines
Naharnet/As efforts to form the new cabinet appeared stalled, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa sounded the alarm, saying Lebanon is nearing the red lines.  "Mines are being planted in Lebanon …in extremely dangerous circumstances," Moussa told the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat.
"In deed, we are nearing the red lines" in Lebanon, Moussa warned. "A settlement should emerge from within Lebanon. We wait to find out how would Lebanese politicians deal with efforts to form the cabinet," Moussa added. Moussa's remarks followed reports that efforts to form the new cabinet have been frozen following rejection by Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun of a settlement proposed by Hizbullah and accepted by the majority.
Premier-designate Fouad Saniora on Saturday held telephone discussions with President Michel Suleiman and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that focused on efforts to form the cabinet, which have not achieved a breakthrough. The daily An Nahar quoted Berri as emphasizing on the need to calm down and defuse tension.
"We need to calm down the atmosphere and allow cold-headed people" to tackle the issue.
"Things cannot proceed this way," Berri stressed. Meanwhile, Free Patriotic Movement official Gibran Bassil said the group is "withdrawing the concession it recently made and in which we accepted two basic portfolios and the seat of deputy premier." "We want a sovereign portfolio," Bassil told An Nahar.
The publication quoted FPM sources as saying the group wants the finance portfolio in addition to the ministries of public works and social affairs as well as the seat of deputy premier. President Suleiman told visiting diplomats on Saturday that failing to form the new cabinet is "not justified."Suleiman said all factions should facilitate the effort and whoever blocks the cabinet formation is "committing a big mistake against the nation and the people."
"The Lebanese people are for stability," Suleiman stressed. Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 08:09

Nicola: March 14 Suffers from 'Aoun Complex'
Naharnet/MP Nabil Nicola of the Change and Reform Bloc on Sunday accused the March 14 majority of blocking the formation of a new cabinet upon instructions from the United States. Nicola, in a radio interview, said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, her assistant David Welch and Senior U.S. diplomat in Lebanon Michele Sison were directly involved in instructing March 14 leaders and Premier-designate Fouad Saniora. He said his bloc has facilitated President Michel Suleiman's election and "accepted" the designation of Saniora to form the new cabinet "despite all the reservations on his performance since 1992." Nicola said the majority suffers from the "Aoun complex" in reference to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 11:48

Hassan Khalil Ready to Facilitate Efforts to Form Cabinet

Naharnet/MP Ali Hassan Khalil on Sunday called for speeding efforts to form a new cabinet pledging that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's AMAL Movement is prepared to facilitate the mission. Khalil, addressing a rally in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, said a chance remains available to form the cabinet despite blocking attempts that persisted in the past two days. "Blaming each other (for blocking the cabinet formation) does not serve anybody's interests," Khalil stressed.
Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 11:29

Hizbullah Denies Deploying Gunmen in Sannine Mount

Hizbullah on Sunday denied reports about deployment of its gunmen in the Sannine mountain, terming them lies. A statement released by Hizbullah's media office said the March 14 "forces have adopted a policy of lie, lie and lie until people believe you." Claims by March 14 leaders "about Hizbullah maintaining armed outposts in the Sannine highland are baseless," the statement said. Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 11:17

Iran Waves Hizbullah Stick in Israel's Face
Naharnet/Iran has threatened to block oil shipments through the strategic Hormuz Straits if attacked and pledged that Hizbullah could also respond by rocketing Israel. The threat was made by commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps Mohammed Ali Jafari in remarks to a conservative Iranian newspaper and republished by the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat. Jafari also warned "regional states" against facilitating a strike targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and pledged "revenge." After blocking the Hormuz Straits "oil prices would hike and this would deter the enemy," Jafari said. "Iran's allies in the region, including Lebanon's Hizbullah, could respond (to the strike on Iran)," he declared. "The Israelis realize that if they launch a military attack against Iran then capabilities of the Islamic world, especially the Shiites in the region, would launch lethal strikes," he said. "Israel is within the range of Iranian rockets," he added. Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 09:04

Ex-spy Chief: Israel Has a Year to Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program
Naharnet/Israel has one year to destroy Iran's nuclear program or it faces the risk of coming under nuclear attack, the former head of its foreign intelligence agency said in an interview published Sunday. Speaking to the Sunday Telegraph, Shabtai Shavit said the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year." "The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he was quoted as saying by the weekly.
"As an intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell you we should be prepared. We should do whatever necessary on the defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military action."
The chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards General Mohammad Ali Jafari warned Israel not to attack it, saying that the Jewish state was well within range of its missiles, according to a newspaper report Saturday. Shavit also waded into the American presidential race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, saying that the latter was less likely to approve an Israeli military strike against Iran. "If McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to go for it," Shavit was quoted as saying. "If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for it, at least not in his first term in the White House."
He warned, however, that American approval was not a necessary pre-requisite for Israel carrying out an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
"When it comes to decisions that have to do with our national security and our own survival, at best we may update the Americans that we are intending or planning or going to do something," he said. "It's not a precondition, [getting] an American agreement."(AFP) Beirut, 29 Jun 08, 05:15

Aoun Embarrasses Opposition
Naharnet/Opposition media outlets reported Saturday that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has embarrassed Hizbullah and AMAL movement by rejecting a proposal they had sponsored to facilitate efforts aimed at forming the new cabinet. Al-Akhbar newspaper headlined its main report: "Aoun embarrasses the opposition by insisting on the public works and telecommunications portfolios." "Saniora halts negotiations, Murr-Geagea threaten to withdraw," the headline added. "Is the problem now within the opposition …?" the report asked. It said the proposal was originally declared by Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah, and relayed by a Hizbullah delegation to President Michel Suleiman backed by "guarantees" that Aoun would accept it. The proposal, which gave Aoun the right to choose a minister for the public works portfolio, was also relayed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to the March 14 majority alliance through Democratic Gathering Leader Walid Jumblat. Aoun, however, informed a representative of Premier-designate Fouad Saniora that he also wants to control the telecommunications portfolio, in addition to other seats in the cabinet, and practiced veto on seats to be allotted to other Christian factions. Al-Akhbar said unnamed government sources blamed blocking the cabinet formation on Aoun. Hizbullah and AMAL, according to the newspaper, kept a low profile and avoided comment on the issue to avoid further embarrassment. Aoun declared Friday evening that he was officially informed by a Saniora representative that the offer relayed to him earlier has been "withdrawn." Beirut, 28 Jun 08, 10:01

Suleiman Hopeful New Cabinet Will Be Announced Within 48 Hours
Naharnet/President Michel Suleim
an said Saturday he was hopeful that a new cabinet will be announced within 48 hours.
"There is no excuse for not forming a national unity government, particularly after the agreement we reached in Doha," Suleiman told the diplomatic corps.
"It is important that the cabinet is set up within the next 48 hours," Suleiman stressed.
He called on the various political leaders to facilitate formation of the new cabinet.
"He who doesn't facilitate (the cabinet formation) would be committing a grave mistake," Suleiman said," adding that "our internal problems are not that important compared to our main problem with the Israeli enemy." Beirut, 28 Jun 08, 18:49

Iran Warns Israel It Could Wreak Havoc with Hizbullah, Hamas Support
Naharnet/The chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards has issued a new warning against Israel not to attack it, saying the Jewish state is well within range of its missiles, a newspaper reported on Saturday. "This country (Israel) is completely within the range of the Islamic republic's missiles. Our missile power and capability are such that the Zionist regime -- despite all its abilities -- cannot confront it," General Mohammad Ali Jafari told the conservative daily Jam-e Jam.
"There is the possibility that by attacking Iranian nuclear sites the enemy wants to delay our nuclear activities, but any interruption would be very short since Iranian scientific ability is different from that of Syria and Iraq."His comments came after U.S. media reported that more than 100 Israeli warplanes staged a training exercise with Greece earlier this month to prepare for a possible long-distance strike and as a warning to Tehran.
Iran has defied U.N. sanctions and international demands by pressing ahead with its disputed uranium enrichment programme, which both Washington and Israel fear would be used to build a nuclear weapon.Tehran denies wanting the bomb, and says its nuclear ambitions extend only to generating electricity for a growing population. Parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, formerly Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, weighed in on Saturday and said the country was ready for anything.
"Iran is always ready for any kind of action," Larijani was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.
Israeli Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, a former defense chief, said in an interview published in the Russian press on Wednesday that Iran would be "annihilated" if it tried to attack Israel. But, he said, "we are not planning any attack against Iran." Last Sunday Iran's defense minister dismissed the reports that Israel had conducted a dry run for air strikes against its nuclear drive as "psychological operations," but warned of a limitless response to an attack.
"Iran will not begin any conflict but will punish any aggressor with force. With determination and using all the options -- without limit in time and space -- we will give a destructive response to any hostile action," Mostafa Mohammad Najar said. General Jafari also warned that Iran could wreak havoc with the support of anti-Israeli militant groups Hamas and Hizbullah. "Revolutionary Muslims, whether Shiite or Sunni, see the U.S. and Israel attack against Islamic Iran as an attack on the Islamic world and thus defense will be on their mind without a doubt," he told the daily. Iran maintains that its support for Hamas and Hizbullah is moral and has repeatedly denied supplying them with arms. Israel and the United States consider both to be terrorist groups.
Iran, number two in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has said that using oil as weapon is not on its agenda -- but has also not ruled it out."It is natural that when a country is attacked it uses all of its capabilities against the enemy, and definitely our control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would be one of our actions," Jafari said. The strait is a vital conduit for energy supplies, with about 20-25 percent of the world's crude oil from Gulf oil producers passing through the waterway. "Certainly if there is fighting... the scope will be extended to oil, meaning its price will increase drastically. This will deter our enemies from taking action against Iran."(AFP) Beirut, 28 Jun 08, 16:08

Beyond the Government
Walid Choucair
Al-Hayat - 29/06/08//
There is more to the delay in the formation of the national unity cabinet than domestic Lebanese factors even when these factors cannot be understated. After all, the roots and developments of the Lebanese crisis are regional in nature even when the mechanism of its eruption and its fuel are Lebanese, especially as long as the mosaic of the Lebanese fabric and the contradictions of its sects and their disputes continue to provide the necessary cover for the goals and intentions of regional escalation. The Lebanese are experts at creating the noise and clatter that conceals the more serious causes of their tense disputes. In fact, a few local players are much more inclined to slip into playing this role, unaware of the "service" they are doing to foreign sides….whereas at the same time, there are other players who are very aware of their own role in the regional sense and with respect to the function they are performing.
Regional players with the capacity to obstruct and delay are accustomed to hold this country by the neck and grasp the steps that become urgent and essential needs for other international and regional players. This is what they did with respect to opening the parliament, facilitating the work of the state and government, and electing a president to the republic. This also was the case with the process of forming the cabinet since the appointment of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.
Whether the new cabinet is formed sooner or later, the indicators over the past four weeks since the appointment of Siniora reveal that the coming phase for Lebanon will be of a security nature despite the Doha Accord which supposedly brought an end to the military clashes in Beirut, the mountain and north last May. It is a security stage not only because of the ongoing mobile clashes in the capital, Bekaa and north, but also as a result of the declared position by the fundamental and powerful player that possesses the security and military initiative in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah. Hezbollah preempted the formation of the cabinet by asserting that no one distrusted by the resistance will be appointed as head to any security apparatus or military position.
In fact, Hezbollah's leaders addressed Saudi Arabia harshly when they announced that "next time" (implying the next round of clashes in Beirut), "they would not find a way out" (to leave Beirut in reference to the departure of Saudi ambassador Dr. Abdul-Aziz Khoja during the clashes last May). Hence, the manifestations of the next round seen in the alleys and other areas are not only indicative of the security stage. Given the dispute over the formation of the cabinet, Hezbollah and the opposition's circles continuously reiterate that the majority has not learned its lesson well and that there is a need to repeat the beating they were subjected to last May because experience has shown that just as they agreed to give the obstructive third to the opposition and amend the electoral law under pressure, they would only give in to the demands of the opposition in the cabinet under renewed pressure. The implication here is military pressure. The more pleasant expressions used by the opposition and Hezbollah is that they will not let the majority rest and relax.
While this kind of atmosphere prevailing within the opposition, its implications do not end at turning against the commitment in the Doha Accord not to use arms in internal disputes. Rather, it implies that the direction of events is to confirm the presence of a victor and a vanquished in the upcoming internal formula. It also indicates that the regional equation that produced the Doha Accord has ceased to exist, and this is what all this is about.
It is no longer a secret that the Iranian-Saudi relationship is falling apart, that attempts to bridge the gap that worsened following the military expansion of Hezbollah and the allies of Iran and Syria in Beirut have failed, and that the meeting of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saudi al-Faisal with his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki in Beirut in Beirut on 25 May ended with disagreement. The former accuses Tehran of instigating a sectarian war while the latter denies and promises that the events will not be repeated although he pointed the accusations back at the Kingdom.
Tehran is concerned that Saudi Arabia may not play an ameliorating role toward the western position over Iran's nuclear file on the basis of its fixed position which advises the West not to resort to a military confrontation with Iran because its outcomes would be disastrous for the region. These concerns and fears worsened as Riyadh sought to raise the ceiling of oil production to bring oil prices under control and stop the price hike in concurrence with the decision by the EU and the US to impose a new basket of sanctions on Iran. In short, Tehran wants Riyadh to come to it after the events that had taken place in Beirut.
On the Syrian front, all mediation efforts to revive the relationship between Damascus and Riyadh, the last of which were the Kuwaiti and Qatari efforts, were faced with very cold shoulders by Saudi Arabia at a time when Damascus is in dire need to revive this relationship to continue its efforts to normalize relations with the rest of the world. Damascus also needs the Arab Saudi-Egyptian cover for its presidency of the Arab Summit and for its negotiations with Israel.

A better design for the war of ideas is needed
By Walid Phares
Phares Briefs Officials and Academics in Rome
June 22, 2008
As part of his activities as a Visiting Fellow at the European Foundation for Democracy, Dr Walid Phares delivered a lecture on the “Future of Salafi Jihadi Terrorism” at the Italian Institute of International Affairs in Rome, Italy’s leading strategic think tank. Dr. Phares, who was introducing his new book The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad, analyzed the global trends of the Jihadist movement, focusing on the Salafi networks.
The event was attended by the Chief of Staff of the Italian Armed Forces General Vincenzo Camporini and the former Chief of Staff of the Air Force General Stelio Nardini. Also participated in the debate Ambassador Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, former deputy Secretary General of NATO, Admiral Mario Rino Me from the Ministry of Defense, Stefano Silvestri, President of the Instituto Affari Internazionali, Carlo Jean, President of the Centro Studi Geopolitica Economica, Professor Khaled Allam at the Center of the Islamic Countries at the University of Trieste, Karim Mezran director of the Center of American studies, Girogio Gomel, Director of International relations at the Banca D’Italia, Marta Dassu, Director of the Aspen Institute of Italy, and other researchers and NGO representatives.
Phares reviewed the state of analysis on the rise of the Jihadi movement throughout the West in general and in Europe in particular. He led a discussion of the so-called lexicons proposed by several bureaucracies and proposed an alternative method of conducting strategic communications in Jihadi environments. “What is needed for European, and eventually North American, national security is a better understanding of the penetration strategies of the Jihadi-Salafi movements and thus a better design of the battle of ideas with their ideologies,” said Phares. “If we give in and begin using the words their ideologues and strategists wants us to use or do not want us to use, then we will be defeated strategically.”
After the debate Professor Phares held a meeting at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with Ambassador Cesare Maria Ragaglini Director General for the Mediterranean and the Middle East and Near East Diplomat Michele Tommasi. Roberta Bonazzi, Executive Director of the European Foundation for Democracy, also participated in the discussion. Dr Phares reviewed the global trends of the Terror groups in the Greater Middle East and their evolution across the Mediterranean. Ambassador Ragaglini explained the main Italian policies regarding Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and North Africa focusing also on the Arab-Israeli Peace Process.
Phares interview with the Mimi Gerges radio satellite show on the Confrontation
How do we win the war against jihadists and preserve our way of life? Author and terrorism expert Walid Phares, The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad has written the third in a trilogy of books. He offers a multi-pronged global strategy to defeat jihadism. Then
“The ideological factions which basically reject democracy as a concept. They’re not shy about it. But they control the microphone. … Those freedom seeking, liberal, democracy forces in the region simply don’t have a microphone. And when they do have a microphone, you’re going to listen to a very different message.” - Walid Phares.

Another Israel-Hezbollah Prisoner Swap?
By P. David Hornik

FrontPageMagazine.com | Friday, June 27, 2008
A lot happened in Israel this week: the Olmert government again scraping through, at least till September, with an eleventh-hour deal between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak; the government’s ceasefire with Hamas already blasted by mortar and rocket firings from Gaza. At the center of public attention, though, were three hostages of terrorist organizations and their fate.
It was two years ago on Wednesday—June 25, 2006—that Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was abducted into Gaza by Hamas. On Thursday Israeli negotiator Ofer Dekel was again in Cairo for talks on a deal for Shalit that still appears elusive.
And it was on July 12, 2006, that Israeli reserve soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were abducted into Lebanon by Hezbollah. In this case a deal is said to be within reach and the Israeli cabinet is supposed to vote Sunday on a framework agreement for a prisoner exchange with Hezbollah.
Reports vary as to the terms of the agreement. But according to what could be called the dominant version, Israel is supposed to hand over the notorious Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar, four terrorists captured during the 2006 war, and the remains of eight others who were buried in Israel. Hezbollah is supposed to hand over Regev and Goldwasser, whose kidnapping prompted Israel to go to war in a failed attempt to retrieve them.
Hezbollah is also supposed to provide information on Ron Arad, the Israeli air force navigator who was shot down in Lebanon in 1986 and whose fate has been unknown since 1988, though it’s believed he was transferred to Iran and is most likely dead.
If it sounds surprisingly close to a fair exchange after Israel’s past lopsided deals with Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations, the hitch is that Regev and Goldwasser, according to Israeli intelligence, are definitely dead. Reportedly all three branches—the Mossad, the Shin Bet, and Military Intelligence—reached that conclusion in separate investigations and conveyed it to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last June 3.
So the imbalance is there after all—especially considering that Samir Kuntar is supposed to be part of the deal.
In 1979, in the course of a terrorist attack in the Israeli coastal town of Nahariya, Kuntar and others took 28-year-old Israeli civilian Danny Haran and his four-year-old daughter Einat down to the beach as hostages. There Kuntar shot Danny Haran dead and killed Einat Haran by smashing her head on rocks and with the butt of his rifle.
Since then Kuntar has been jailed in Israel with a life sentence. Last February the assassination of terrorist leader Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus prompted him to send a letter—reprinted in the Palestinian Authority daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida—to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in which he wrote: “Peace be unto…Imad Mughniyeh…. My oath and pledge is that my place will be at the battlefront…and that I shall continue down the path, until complete victory.”
For Nasrallah, eager to shore up his newly enhanced standing in the Lebanese political scene, freeing the child-killer is high-priority. Kuntar’s inclusion in the prospective deal, though, has led Mossad chief Meir Dagan and Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin to raise objections to it. Dagan and Diskin are particularly concerned that, after paying such a price, Hezbollah could “reciprocate” with information on Ron Arad that’s of little worth and sheds little light.
Dagan and Diskin’s objections are reportedly what has caused Olmert to have second thoughts and order the army’s chaplaincy corps to declare Regev and Goldwasser KIA—killed in action—which some have interpreted as Olmert's attempt to dampen support for the deal.
Some observations:
1. Israel has itself to blame for making the kidnapping of Israelis a key objective of terrorist organizations. Israel’s previous severely asymmetrical deals are infamous, not least in Israel itself; the most egregious case is the 1985 Jibril Deal in which—sparking public outrage—Israel traded 1150 terrorists for three soldiers held by Ahmed Jibril’s PFLP. Now, reportedly, teams have been formed to draft a new policy for such situations. Earlier the Winograd Committee, set up to investigate the failures in the 2006 war in Lebanon, called for an end to what it called “crazy deals.” Clearly, continuing to make such exchanges means inviting further kidnapping attempts since Israel’s enemies have so much to gain from them.
2. The value of retrieving the bodies of dead soldiers is very real; Israel is dealing with ghoulish enemies who won’t hesitate to exploit families’ natural desire for the closure afforded by a funeral and a gravesite. Trading live terrorist prisoners for corpses, however, gives terrorists a message that they have nothing to lose: they can kidnap the Israelis and, even if they kill them, still reap a high price for them. Israel’s January 2004 deal with Hezbollah, when it freed 435 terrorists in return for the shady businessman Elhanan Tanenbaum and three corpses of soldiers, may possibly have been a death warrant for Eldad and Goldwasser since Hezbollah had little incentive to keep them alive.
3. The terrorist organizations’ behavior in these situations is a display of human evil at its coldest and most sadistic. Hezbollah has kept conveying shifting versions of the terms it will accept while refusing to disclose if Eldad and Goldwasser are dead or alive. The terrorists use the pain of the soldiers’ families, and the pressure they inevitably exert on the Israeli government, as part of their arsenal. Although Shalit has been allowed to send his parents three letters, neither he nor Eldad and Goldwasser have been seen by a third party, visited by the Red Cross, let alone visited by a relative. Both Hezbollah and Hamas have exploited the case of Ron Arad—vanished for twenty years—by threatening that the current hostages’ fate will be similar if Israel doesn’t pay the demanded prices.
For Israel it’s a disconcerting experience of staring evil in the face, but an experience from which Israel has to learn. If it ends up paying an exorbitant price for Shalit, or for the remains of Goldwasser and Regev plus inadequate information on Arad, it has to make clear that this is the last time. Expecting such clarity and resolve from Israel’s current government, however, is excessively optimistic.
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P. David Hornik is a freelance writer and translator living in Tel Aviv. He blogs at http://pdavidhornik.typepad.com/. He can be reached at pdavidh2001@yahoo.com.

Who's Planning Our Next War
Pat Buchanan

Fri Jun 27, 08
Of the Axis-of-Evil nations named in his State of the Union in 2002, President Bush has often said, "The United States will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons."
He failed with North Korea. Will he accept failure in Iran, though there is no hard evidence Iran has an active nuclear weapons program?
William Kristol of The Weekly Standard said Sunday a U.S. attack on Iran after the election is more likely should Barack Obama win. Presumably, Bush would trust John McCain to keep Iran nuclear free.
Yet, to start a third war in the Middle East against a nation three times as large as Iraq, and leave it to a new president to fight, would be a daylight hijacking of the congressional war power and a criminally irresponsible act. For Congress alone has the power to authorize war.
Yet Israel is even today pushing Bush into a pre-emptive war with a naked threat to attack Iran itself should Bush refuse the cup.
In April, Israel held a five-day civil defense drill. In June, Israel sent 100 F-15s and F-16s, with refueling tankers and helicopters to pick up downed pilots, toward Greece in a simulated attack, a dress rehearsal for war. The planes flew 1,400 kilometers, the distance to Iran's uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Ehud Olmert came home from a June meeting with Bush to tell Israelis: "We reached agreement on the need to take care of the Iranian threat. ... I left with a lot less question marks regarding the means, the timetable restrictions and American resoluteness. ...
"George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it, and intends to act on the matter before the end of his term. ... The Iranian problem requires urgent attention, and I see no reason to delay this just because there will be a new president in the White House seven and a half months from now."
If Bush is discussing war on Iran with Ehud Olmert, why is he not discussing it with Congress or the nation?
On June 6, Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz threatened, "If Iran continues its nuclear weapons program, we will attack it." The price of oil shot up 9 percent.
Is Israel bluffing — or planning to attack Iran if America balks?
Previous air strikes on the PLO command in Tunis, on the Osirak reactor in Iraq and on the presumed nuclear reactor site in Syria last September give Israel a high degree of credibility.
Still, attacking Iran would be no piece of cake.
Israel lacks the stealth and cruise-missile capacity to degrade Iran's air defenses systematically and no longer has the element of surprise. Israeli planes and pilots would likely be lost.
Israel also lacks the ability to stay over the target or conduct follow-up strikes. The U.S. Air Force bombed Iraq for five weeks with hundreds of daily runs in 1991 before Gen. Schwarzkopf moved.
Moreover, if Iran has achieved the capacity to enrich uranium, she has surely moved centrifuges to parts of the country that Israel cannot reach — and can probably replicate anything lost.
Israel would also have to over-fly Turkey, or Syria and U.S.-occupied Iraq, or Saudi Arabia to reach Natanz. Turks, Syrians and Saudis would deny Israel permission and might resist. For the U.S. military to let Israel over-fly Iraq would make us an accomplice. How would that sit with the Europeans who are supporting our sanctions on Iran and want the nuclear issue settled diplomatically?
And who can predict with certitude how Iran would respond?
Would Iran attack Israel with rockets, inviting retaliation with Jericho and cruise missiles from Israeli submarines? Would she close the Gulf with suicide-boat attacks on tankers and U.S. warships?
With oil at $135 a barrel, Israeli air strikes on Iran would seem to ensure a 2,000-point drop in the Dow and a world recession.
What would Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria do? All three are now in indirect negotiations with Israel. U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq could be made by Iran to pay a high price in blood that could force the United States to initiate its own air war in retaliation, and to finish a war Israel had begun. But a U.S. war on Iran is not a decision Bush can outsource to Ehud Olmert.
Tuesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Michael Mullins left for Israel. CBS News cited U.S. officials as conceding the trip comes "just as the Israelis are mounting a full court press to get the Bush administration to strike Iran's nuclear complex."
Vice President Cheney is said to favor U.S. strikes. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Mullins are said to be opposed.
Moving through Congress, powered by the Israeli lobby, is House Resolution 362, which demands that President Bush impose a U.S. blockade of Iran, an act of war.
Is it not time the American people were consulted on the next war that is being planned for us?
**To find out more about Patrick Buchanan, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2008 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.

Guest Post: Hizballah disarmed? Forget it!
http://blacksmithsoflebanon.blogspot.com/2008/06/guest-post-hizballah-disarmed-forget-it.html
Long-time reader, Lori, sends in this piece drawing out her views on how a [satirical] interview with a Hizballah politburo member would read.
Through the voice of MP Hassan Fadlallah, Hizballah announced that even if the problem of the Shebaa farms and the Kfar Shouba hills will be solved, that would be solely the result of the resistance actions. And by consequence, the party will not give up its weapons. The message is: Do you want to take our arms? Really? If you are certain, than good luck with that, as we are resourceful enough to find new reasons to keep them.
Assuming that Shebaa Farms and the hills are liberated in the near future.What about Samir Kuntar? Please, don't say that what Kuntar did was appalling! He only did his duty. A sacred one at that. The laws we humans made are not suitable for such extraordinary characters. We operate under a different code, dictated to us by the Faqih and given to us by God.
Nor do we abide by the borders drawn by man, for we are all one in our crusade to bring these lands under the administration of the Jurist. After Kuntar, there are the Palestinian brothers illegally kept in Israeli jails. Their only sin is to have fought for the cause. If that means killing children and innocents, then so be it. It is all in the name of the cause. I guess that we don't really have to be very creative. There is always Palestine and Al –Quds to be liberated. Let's make sure, that by Palestine, we mean all of it. Israel is an alien implant in the region, and it represents all that we profoundly hate: terrorism, imperialism, oppression and I have merely started.
Of course, our cause is the right one. You wonder, who told us that? Are you aware that our party's name in Arabic means the Party of God, and do you know that our slogan is a verse of the Holy Qu'ran? God promised that we'd be victorious. If we doubt God's word what else stands?
Did you know that we have a new President? What do you mean who he is?! What planet do you live on? Our President is General Michel Sleiman. We proposed him thinking that March 14 will never agree. We worked well with him, when our brothers, the Syrians, were in Lebanon.
Why do you ask if we are willing to give him a chance? In theory, we are, but just in case, we let Michel Aoun dispute the role Sleiman wants to play. It is actually hilarious to see how easy to manipulate ambitious men is.
We truly respect Michel Aoun. Years ago, before MoU, when he was in exile, in France, he said we are terrorists. We convinced him otherwise when he returned home. Aoun helped us a lot. We will not disregard his wishes regarding the government posts.
Truth be told, we avoided proposing and supporting his candidacy as President. You see, we trust our Christian allies, but you can never be too careful. What if he'd go back to his previous ideas? We could not afford the risk, therefore we helped him, but without going the extra mile.
I was waiting for your question on our dearest brother, Imad Mugnyeh. Mugnyeh was among the best we have had. He was almost from the very beginning with a foot in Hizballah and the other in Iranian military. His genius was renowned worldwide, but you know that. I am not in the position to talk of Syrian involvement, but we know that those who killed him, prepared with weeks in advance the car, waiting for Mugnyeh to come. You know, there was a time when Syria preferred Amal and hunted us like we were fugitives or something, but praise be God that is behind us now. In any case, we have conducted our own investigation and our Iranian brothers helped us a lot with it. The truth will be revealed, and the perpetrators punished. Would we take it as an excuse to attack Israeli interests in the world? We don't need excuses. We base our actions on facts and truth, and the truth is that Israel's hands have to be cut, sooner rather than later.
My opinion of Fuad Siniora? In 2006, he and all the other leaders, be they Christians, Sunni, or Druze, all supported the resistance. Then it was issued the cabinet statement – bayan wizari in our support. We never quite understood the schizophrenic nature of some. We even talked among ourselves about it. Not to gossip, no, but this double speak can be a sign of a poor medical condition. That worries us.
On one hand, they hugged, kissed us and wished us all, on the other hand they said they support the UN 1559, UN 1701 that presumably ask our disarmament. I say presumably, because we don't consider ourselves to be a militia, and as such, the resolutions can't possibly talk about the resistance, although those that call themselves March 14 refer to us, as to a militia, when they talk with US.
Why do you ask if they are afraid of us? They have no reason to fear us, and we have shown friendship, toleration and restraint. You have to address them this question. The events that took place recently, the peaceful, and democratic sit in, and the fact that we have decided to put our men on the streets of Beirut, were all acts done for the best of the country. You know that we disarmed certain militias and handed the weapons over to the army. Why did not we hand ours too? You have a fine sense of humour, indeed.
We have the constitutional right to say our opinion, and that is why we have organized the sit in. Some accused us of closing downtown, but that is not the case. Maybe some shop owners, café and restaurants patrons closed down their businesses, but we did not order them to do so. I don't want to discuss this subject anymore, but good has come out of it. The Shias showed their faith in us, we respected the laws of the country, and the rules of the democratic game, and, if in the process some had to close their businesses selling alcohol and thus encouraging immorality, praise be God, we have done more than it was asked of us.
We respect the army and we want to see it as strong and capable of providing for the Resistance the support and room to maneuver it needs to fulfill its divine mission. So long as everyone understands this, we will not have any trouble.
I know you have always wondered why we can negotiate with Israel, while Lebanon, through Michel Sleiman and Fuad Siniora clearly reject it. You think we bullied them into it? Such a strong language, and no, we did not. Let them take decisions that are capable to back up.
In this world everything comes down to principles, loyalty towards a cause, faith in God, and compassion towards the others. My message? My message is one of peace, and in the same time, one of power. We will never again be ignored, and we will continue our struggle. To what end? That is for God to decide, and for us to follow.
By Blacksmith Jade at 12:01 AM
Labels: Opinion
http://blacksmithsoflebanon.blogspot.com/2008/06/guest-post-hizballah-disarmed-forget-it.html