LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS
BULLETIN
March 23/08
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 28,1-10. After the sabbath, as the first day of the
week was dawning, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary came to see the tomb. And
behold, there was a great earthquake; for an angel of the Lord descended from
heaven, approached, rolled back the stone, and sat upon it. His appearance was
like lightning and his clothing was white as snow. The guards were shaken with
fear of him and became like dead men. Then the angel said to the women in reply,
"Do not be afraid! I know that you are seeking Jesus the crucified. He is not
here, for he has been raised just as he said. Come and see the place where he
lay. Then go quickly and tell his disciples, 'He has been raised from the dead,
and he is going before you to Galilee; there you will see him.' Behold, I have
told you." Then they went away quickly from the tomb, fearful yet overjoyed, and
ran to announce this to his disciples.And behold, Jesus met them on their way
and greeted them. They approached, embraced his feet, and did him homage.
Then Jesus said to them, "Do not be afraid. Go tell my brothers to go to
Galilee, and there they will see me."
Free
Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Between the Arab Summit and the End of the Bush Era: Prospects for
a Regional Conflict. By: Raghida Dergham 22/03/08
Timely lessons on politics and negotiating from
the island of love-The Daily Star. 22/03/08
Forcibly re-secularizing Turkey will only
backfire. By Alfred Stepan 22/03/08
North Korea and Syria: The US wants to know more.By
David Ignatius- 22/03/08
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for March 22/08
Sfeir: 'We can't lose hope - it's our country-Daily
Star
Israel warns citizens abroad could face revenge
attacks-AFP
Cheney tour arrives in Saudi Arabia to seek
support for US agenda in region-AFP
Geagea says March 14 will meet after summit to
take stock of new realities-Daily Star
Union for Lebanon calls for 'balanced' electoral
law-Daily Star
Hundreds flee as Ain al-Hilweh factions clash-Daily
Star
American think tank paints Hizbullah as bought and
paid for by Tehran-Daily Star
Berri brushes off demand to resume House sessions-Daily Star
Heavy clashes in Palestinian camp in south Lebanon-Monsters
and Critics.com
Arab American Institute Foundation to host Gibran awards-Daily
Star
Annan finds Lebanese crisis 'very worrying-Daily
Star
Massive public debt remains biggest challenge for
Lebanese banks-Daily Star
Man found shot to death in Tripoli-Daily
Star
Clashes at Rafik Hariri University wound two-Daily
Star
AUB finds new president after year-long search-Daily
Star
Lebanon set to join multilateral effort to clean
up Med coast-Daily Star
New restaurants strive to restore Hamra's
reputation 'as the place to be -Daily
Star
Frustration mounts among residents over Sidon's
'rubbish mountain' -By IRIN News.org
Syria: We're ready to negotiate-Jerusalem
Post
Sfeir Pessimistic Over Deep Divisions Among Lebanese-Naharnet
Police kill three Kurds in northeast Syria - group-Reuters
Fatah Captures
Terrorist leader in Ein al-Hilweh-Naharnet
Gemayel Denies that He Would Join the Saniora Government-Naharnet
Israelis Warned of Kidnappings to Avenge Mughniyeh's Killing-Naharnet
Berri: Parliament
Cannot Legislate-Naharnet
Clashes erupt in Lebanon camp-PRESS
TV
Political rivalries in Lebanon prevent clean-up of toxic rubbish dump-Reuters
Iran reportedly purchased $1 billion in arms for Syria,Jewish
Telegraphic Agency
Lebanon's top Shiite cleric says Arab summit in Syria won't solve ...International
Herald Tribune
Sfeir Pessimistic Over Deep Divisions Among Lebanese
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir expressed pessimism over growing
divisions among the Lebanese, a day after he likened Lebanon to the Palestinian
territories.Sfeir, in a speech on the occasion of Good Friday, urged the
Lebanese to "overcome disagreements and return to their conscience."
"Grouping and division that have hit Lebanon" do not lead to optimism, he said,
adding that "persistent efforts (by some parties) to overtake the country's main
arteries" are not comforting. Although he warned against growing divisions among
the Lebanese, he said "we can't lose hope. It's our country."
Sfeir also lamented the deteriorating economic situation and said foreign
businessmen were withdrawing their investments from the country.
On Thursday, the patriarch expressed concern over the deteriorating political
and security situation in Lebanon, likening it to the worsening conditions in
the Palestinian territories."Lebanon has become almost like Palestine," Sfeir
said after holding talks with Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)
representative in Lebanon Abbas Zaki. "We don't envy each other," Sfeir said in
Bkirki but stressed that the Lebanese have faith in God and each other.
"The Palestinian people have been suffering for more than half a century," he
said. Sfeir also hoped "for an end to the tragic" situation in the Palestinian
territories, which he said "has spread to the entire Middle East." More than 130
Palestinians have been killed since February 27 when Israel launched a military
campaign on the Gaza Strip in response to rocket fire on southern Israel. Five
Israelis, including four soldiers, were killed during the same period.
Israel has also been battling Hamas since the group seized control of Gaza last
June. In addition to its military activity, the Jewish state has imposed a tough
economic blockade on the strip. Beirut, 21 Mar 08, 10:31
Geagea says March 14 will meet after summit to take stock
of new realities
Daily Star staff
Saturday, March 22, 2008
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea said on Thursday that he and his
colleagues in the ruling March 14 Forces coalition will discuss after the Arab
League summit in Damascus "future prospectives and the appropriate measures to
be taken." "The government is legitimate and legal but is operating slowly
pending the election of a president," Geagea told the local newspaper An-Nahar
from the United States, where he has been meeting US officials.
"The March 14 coalition must reach a solution and set the ground for an interim
ruling," he added. He also ruled out the possibility of his being elected
president if efforts to have the post filled by the commander of the Lebanese
Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, failed.
"If the majority is forced to elect a president with a simple majority, it will
elect one of its candidates - MP Boutros Harb or former MP Nassib Lahoud,"
Geagea told the daily. He also said that the majority had two options: either to
elect a president with a simple majority or to restore the government. "The
opposition is rejecting the second option for it is seeking the obstruction of
the presidential elections as part its strategy of chaos," he said.
Geagea stressed the need to implement the Taef Accord, "for it is the only hope
for Lebanon in the near future."
He also noted that he did not receive an official invitation to the US, but
asked himself for the visit.
Geagea began his tour of the United States on March 8 and has met with several
officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and United Nations
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Sources close to Geagea told An-Nahar this week
that he presented Ban a four-point document, touching on the issues of the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, Lebanese prisoners in Syria and Israel, border
demarcation between Lebanon and Syria, and Lebanon's presidential election.
Geagea said late Monday that he was against Lebanon taking part in the Arab
summit in Damascus at the end of the month, citing what he called Syria's
"negative role" in the region. Speaking to reporters after meetin Ban in New
York, Geagea said: "I explained to him that the Arab summit in Damascus cannot
be a source of hope, neither for Lebanon nor for the Middle East as a whole
given the negative role that Syria is playing in the region."
"We cannot accept that Lebanon goes to this summit given the role that Syria is
playing in Lebanon," he added.
The Arab summit has been mired in controversy, with some Arab states saying they
will not attend if the Lebanese Parliament does not elect a president by then.
Regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Egypt have accused Syria - which was the
dominant political and military force in Lebanon for almost three decades - of
obstructing the election. - The Daily Star
Sfeir: 'We can't lose hope - it's our country'
Fadlallah says Lebanese attendance at Arab summit makes no difference one way or
the other
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Saturday, March 22, 2008
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir expressed pessimism over
growing divisions among the Lebanese on Friday, a day after he compared Lebanon
to the Palestinian territories. In a speech on Good Friday, Sfeir urged the
Lebanese to "overcome disagreements and return to their conscience."
"Rifts and divisions that have hit Lebanon do not lead to optimism," he said,
adding that "persistent efforts [by some parties] to overtake the country's main
arteries are not comforting." Although he warned against growing divisions among
the Lebanese, he said, "we can't lose hope. It's our country."Sfeir also
lamented the deteriorating economic situation and said foreign businessmen were
withdrawing their investments from the country.
On Thursday, the patriarch expressed concern over the deteriorating political
and security situation in Lebanon, likening it to the worsening conditions in
the Palestinian territories. "Lebanon has become almost like Palestine," the
Maronite patriarch said following talks with Palestine Liberation Organization
(PLO) representative in Lebanon Abbas Zaki. "We don't envy each other," Sfeir
said in Bkirki, but stressed that the Lebanese have faith in God and each other.
"The Palestinian people have been suffering for more than half a century," he
said. Sfeir also hoped "for an end to the tragic" situation in the Palestinian
territories, which he said "has had repercussions on the entire Middle East."
More than 130 Palestinians have been killed since February 27, when Israel
launched a military attack on the Gaza Strip in response to rocket fire on
southern Israel. Five Israelis, all but one of them soldiers, were killed during
the same period.
Israel has also been battling Hamas since the group seized control of Gaza last
June. In addition to its military activity, the Jewish state has imposed a tough
economic blockade on the strip.
Meanwhile, Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah said Friday
that Lebanon's participation or absence from the Arab summit in Damascus at the
end of the month was "not that big of a deal since Arab summits have never been
decisive or crucial.""We first note that the summit, like other Arab summits,
cannot achieve any Arab objectives ... in light of the collapsing Arab League.
Secondly, to discuss the Palestinian issue [at the summit] would embarrass some
states that are reluctant to condemn massacres carried out by Israel in Gaza and
at the same time support the siege on Gaza and denounce operations carried out
by the Palestinian resistance," Fadlallah said during his Friday sermon at the
Imam Hassanayn Mosque in Haret Hreik.
Fadlallah added that the reluctance of some Lebanese groups to take part in the
summit was due to "some Arab countries deciding to reduce their level of
attendance at the summit, as well as explicit instructions given by the United
States to boycott the summit."
"They all fail to realize that the summit is aimed at discussing Arab issues
rather than Syrian ones," he added, lashing out at "some Arab regimes that stand
idle as spectators while the Palestinian people are systematically uprooted."
Fadlallah said Lebanese attendance or nonattendance at the summit made little
difference, as certain Arab countries had "nothing to do with Arabism or the
Arab initiative and choose to follow their personal and rugged ways rather than
stand in solidarity with Palestine."
"This makes the issue of Lebanese attendance ineffective either way, but perhaps
it is better to boycott so as to avoid new complications in the Arab reality,"
he stated. The Lebanese remain "fatally confused," the cleric said, because
their internal politics were "still occupied by personal, factional and
sectarian struggles."
"The Lebanese are abandoning their educated and open-minded nature and are
instead adopting a bedouin mentality," he added.
"We want a free, sovereign Lebanon which practices tolerance and openness. We do
not want an enslaved Lebanon which waits to receive instructions from forces
which only consider the interests of their own nations," Fadlallah said.
"Perhaps the sardonic joke is that some are talking about the international
community as if it were a sacred symbol, while we know that this community is
subject to pressures from the US, which refuses to denounce the massacres in
Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan," he added.
Hundreds flee as Ain al-Hilweh factions clash
By Mohammed Zaatari
Daily Star staff
Saturday, March 22, 2008
SIDON: Fighting flared for the second night in a row in and around the tense Ain
al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Sidon on Friday. Few details on Friday's
clashes were immediately available, but the began Thursday when armed members
from Islamist factions Osbat al-Ansar and Jund al-Sham reportedly opened fire on
some Fatah members following the arrest of senior Jund al-Sham commander Houssam
Salim Maarouf by Fatah, which directly handed him over to the Lebanese
authorities. Heavy gunfire was heard in the poverty-stricken refugee camp until
midnight as a reaction to Maarouf's arrest. Armed with assault rifles, masked
men from Osbat al-Ansar and Jund al-Sham walked around the camp, causing many
residents to flee.
Around daybreak Friday a grenade was thrown at the home of a senior Fatah
official, causing severe damage. Rumors spread that Maarouf had been arrested
for robbing a jewelry shop in Sidon, but Palestinian sources said he was taken
in for questioning because he was suspected of having carried "questionable and
dangerous security activities such as communicating with Israel."
"The way the arrest was handled showed that the issue was much more important
than a simple matter of burglary," one of the sources said.
Osbat al- Ansar and Maarouf's partisans denied the accusations, saying they were
entirely made up by Fatah. They also denounced the arrest as being "an
arrangement involving non-Palestinians."Both Lebanese and Palestinian officials
intervened to prevent further escalation and sources said mediation efforts went
on until 4 a.m. "Maarouf's activities went beyond the camp's limits and he is
wanted by the Lebanese authorities for his involvement in several security files
as well as planning to plant a bomb in the home of a senior Fatah official,"
said the commander of Fatah's armed wing, Mounir al-Maqdah.
"Any security matter within the camp is the business of the Lebanese-Palestinian
Follow-up Committee and the joint Palestinian Armed Forces," Maqdah said.
"Things are back to normal and mediations are still on to solve the problem," he
added, speaking hours before the new fighting erupted.
The Follow-up Committee held a meeting with the Lebanese Armed Forces'
intelligence chief in the South, Colonel Abbas Ibrahim, at his office in Sidon
during which he stressed what he called the investigation's "impartiality." "If
proven innocent, the suspect will be freed," he said, "but if proven guilty, he
will get the punishment he deserves." When fighting resumed on Friday, most of
it took place in the Tiri neighborhood, which abuts the camp and is populated
mostly by Lebanese. Hundreds of families fled their homes again, and efforts to
retore the truce were under way as The Daily Star went to press.
American think tank paints Hizbullah as bought and paid for
by Tehran
But local analysts offer different picture of relationship
By Anthony Elghossain -Special to The Daily Star
Saturday, March 22, 2008
BEIRUT: In a recently published report, entitled "Iranian Influence in the
Levant, Iraq, and Afghanistan," the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a
pro-Israeli think tank, seeks to link the growing strategic importance of Iran
in the region with the concurrent rise in prominence of groups such as Hamas and
Hizbullah.
The emergence of Iran as a regional political force has coincided with the rise
in prominence of groups like Hizbullah and the Mehdi Army, leading some
commentators to surmise that a "Shiite Crescent" stretching from Iran through
the Levant and the Gulf may threaten the existing regional order.
The report argues, in part, that Hizbullah is a terrorist organization with
operational capabilities across the Middle East and throughout the Lebanese
diaspora elsewhere. Also central to the report's argument is that Hizbullah is a
proxy, stating that the "Party of God" is a puppet of the regime in Tehran.
In support of these claims, the report describes several mechanisms through
which Hizbullah has become dependent on Iran, breaking the claimed dependency
into financial and military spheres. Financially, the report claims, Hizbullah
receives around $100 million annually from Iran, a number that has gone up since
the 2006 war with Israel. Total Iranian funding of Hizbullah is placed in the
billions.
Militarily, the report says Hizbullah received around 12,000 missiles and
rockets between 1992 and 2005. It is claimed that Iranian support has now offset
any loss of weapons during the 2006 war and that weapons aid is becoming more
sophisticated in nature. Furthermore, the report attributes Hizbullah's
performance during the war to the technical weapons know-how and tactical advice
of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and tunnel construction by "North
Korean engineers" in the years preceding the war. The argument being made is
that Hizbullah is dependent on Iran for its financial and military livelihood,
and is merely a strategic tool of the Islamic regime. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, an
expert on Hizbullah, has argued that the party seeks to balance increasingly
contradictory identities. In this view, Hizbullah is at once a geopolitical
player in the region looking to Iran for support, a resistance movement acting
as a bulwark against Israeli encroachment, and an actor seeking to maximize the
Shiite communal interest in the Lebanon.
When asked about the relative prominence of each of these overlapping aims
during recent stages of the Lebanese political stand-off, Saad-Ghorayeb told The
Daily Star that "the first two [geopolitics and resistance], intertwined,
represent the main focus now. Any new war will be regional in nature, as the
potential links between the [senior Hizbullah commander Imad] Mughniyeh
assassination and the Jewish seminary shootings in Jerusalem indicate." She also
said the resistance function has acquired regional commitments and that
Hizbullah may act in Israel if the conflict continues to intensify. However, "Hizbullah
is not dependent in the full sense of the term - the party may be financially
dependent but is more than a mere tool. The relationship between Iran and
Hizbullah is not one of dependence, but of mutual interest and benefit," she
said. Conversely, Osama Safa, general director of the Lebanese Center for Policy
Studies, views Hizbullah as "the strongest tool of interest Iran has in Lebanon
and the region." Safa said "Hizbullah's various aims are directly related to the
regional agenda."He stressed the importance of Hizbullah's geostrategic role in
reference to the various interests of the party. "Hizbullah is only
quasi-autonomous at the local level and the two subsidiary pillars [resistance
and domestic politics] serve to consolidate an internal base while legitimizing
and protecting the weapons as a means to a larger end."
Berri brushes off demand to resume House sessions
Speaker calls for new cabinet first
Compiled by Daily Star staff -Saturday, March 22, 2008
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Friday reiterated that he would not call the
House to convene in regular session as long as Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's
government remained in office. "The absence of any legitimate executive
authority prevents the convening of Parliament in a lawmaking capacity," a
statement issued by Berri's media office said. The statement came in responses
to charges made by the ruling March 14 coalition one day before alleging that
Berri was rejecting efforts to convene Parliament in a legislative capacity,
thus preventing the House and its members from fulfilling their
responsibilities.
Berri's statement called on March 14 to "implement the Arab initiative [to
resolve Lebanon's 15-month-old power struggle], promote partnership and agree on
an election law." On Thursday, the March 14 Forces described the continued
closure of Parliament as "a clear and explicit violation of the Constitution"
"Freezing the Parliament's activity further downgrades the democratic regime and
disrupts institutions under flimsy pretexts with the aim of collecting benefits
for the Syrian and Iranian regimes at the expense of Lebanese independence," the
governing coalition said in a statement.
The March 14 coalition also emphasized what it called its determination to
restore power to the Parliament and announced that it would not tolerate the
disruption of national institutions or the decline the presidential position and
"would take all necessary constitutional and political steps to attain our
objectives."
Lebanon has been gripped by its worst internal crisis since the 1975-1990 Civil
War with rival political factions unable to elect a successor to former
President Emile Lahoud who stepped down at the end of his term in office in
November.The Lebanese Parliament is scheduled to meet on Tuesday to elect a new
president after 16 previous attempts have been postponed amid a deadlock between
the governing coalition and the opposition on the make-up of a future government
and the formula for a new electoral law. Meanwhile, former President Amin
Gemayel on Friday denied local press reports indicating that he would join
Siniora's government to succeed his assassinated son, Pierre, as minister of
industry.
Gemayel also said in a radio interview that Lebanon should be represented at the
forthcoming Arab summit conference scheduled for March 29 in the Syrian capital,
Damascus. Some members of March 14 have argued that Lebanon should boycott the
gathering to protest what they say is Syrian meddling in Lebanese affairs.
He also denied press reports that the Siniora government would assign him to
represent Lebanon at the summit. The former president said the March 14
coalition should coordinate with its Arab allies to defend Lebanon's cause at
the forthcoming summit. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met Syrian
President Bashar Assad on Thursday for talks on the Middle East peace process
and Lebanon's political standoff. Lavrov said it was necessary to "find a
compromise as soon as possible for Lebanon. "Inter-Lebanese dialogue is the key.
That is in the interests of the Lebanese people, Syria and Russia," he told
reporters.
The Great Satan's Gift
Ghassan Charbel
Al-Hayat - 20/03/08//
President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is serious. And while he is determined and solemn,
he has every right to smile today without any feelings of guilt or desire to
apologize. He has the right to celebrate any way he chooses. They are
celebrating the fifth anniversary of the American invasion of Iraq, an occasion
that concerns him, his regime and his nation.
Certain historical episodes demand exceptional realism, a sense of humor, and
some sarcasm. It is not unusual for him to feel deep gratitude towards the
master of the White House, to appreciate the favors he has done his country, to
acknowledge that no one has ever been so generous to it in a manner that must be
rewarded.
The Iranian regime is solemn, struggling to muffle any signs of its happiness
and desire to celebrate. The imagination of the conservatives is tense and
depressed. Celebrations could have been conducted differently. George Bush could
have been invited to Iran to receive a warm reception and a medal of honor. He
would have received a standing ovation from those waving their fists and yelling
"Death to America."
Ahmedinejad laughs. If Iran had planted a president in the White House, he would
not have been able to serve it the way George Bush did. George Bush rendered the
Islamic Revolution priceless services, unmatched even by the services of the
Revolutionary Guard generals. Ironically, this happened while George Bush raised
the slogan of enmity to the Iranian regime, which he had positioned in the Axis
of Evil.
Ahmedinejad drowns in his memories. In 1980, Saddam Hussein's army penetrated
the Iranian hinterland. His planes bombed Iran, while his rockets showered its
cities. He cannot forget a press conference held by the grand leading president
who entered wearing his military suit and smile, with arrogance flowing out with
his responses. A reporter asked him about the future of Iran as the Iraqi troops
were stationed on its territories. Smiling, he responded, "This is a matter that
depends on the decision of the Iranian peoples." It was evident that Saddam was
flirting with the dream of dismembering Iran and settling historic scores with
it.
Ahmedinejad reminisces. He joined the Revolutionary Guards; his dream was to
punish Saddam Hussein's army with victory and revenge. However, he never even
dared to dream of toppling that regime. He certainly never dreamt of becoming
the president of Iran. He did not dream of landing in Baghdad shortly before the
fifth anniversary celebrations, to address the Iraqis, the Arabs and the world
from Al-Rasheed's capital, while Saddam Hussein's corpse lay in his hometown of
Tikrit.
Ahmedinejad smiles. Another man worth thanking is Usama bin Laden. Were it not
for the Ghazwas (or conquests) in New York and Washington, the world's only
superpower would not have lost its patience, mind, and sound judgment. The
neoconservatives would not have been able to push it to this fatal meal. The
crumbling of the Taliban regime under American strikes was a beautiful gift, but
the grand prize was soon to follow.
Ahmedinejad mocks. He pulls a paper out of his pocket and stares at the numbers;
the number of American troops killed; the massive costs inflicted on the
American economy; the dilemma of involvement in two wars at which victory is
impossible and from which withdrawal is very difficult. America's image in the
world has suffered severe damage. The invasion of Iraq occurred without
international delegation. The invaders never found any weapons of mass
destruction, and the recent studies exonerated Saddam Hussein from any links to
al-Qaeda.
The model that the US wished to plant in Iraq and eventually implement
throughout the Middle East was nothing but the midsummer night's dream of a
completely different Middle East. Its stars resemble Muqtada Al-Sadr or differ
from him in style but not in essence. What they share in common is animosity to
the US and to the democracy that it tried to slip into the region.
The Iraq of old is gone. The Eastern Gate is gone, and gone with it is that who
once called himself the guardian of the gate. Iraq no longer poses a threat or
represents a wall. It can no longer beget another Saddam or anyone who resembles
him. In Iraq, Iran has more power than the obstructing third, and there can be
no security, stability or a cabinet without an Iranian seal. A jackpot it is.
Iran has reached the Mediterranean; its ability to threaten oil security is
certain; its ability to threaten Israel's security has been tested and proven.
Iran is present here and thither. The only thing standing in the way of its
transformation into a major power in the region is the nuclear umbrella which is
soon to arrive.
While putting off the fifth candle, the Arab feels like an orphan in the region.
A different atmosphere prevails in Iran. Ahmedinejad should have invited Bush to
some honorary celebrations. After all, Iran has earned from the "Great Satan" a
gift that surpassed all ambitions. It is a gift that threatens to change the
entire Middle East
Between the Arab Summit and the
End of the Bush Era: Prospects for a Regional Conflict
By: Raghida Dergham
Al-Hayat - 21/03/08//
Nine months stand between the presumed Arab summit in Damascus, scheduled for
the end of March, and the end of George W. Bush's term in office, as American
presidential elections come to an end next fall.
Nine months, during which the Iranian-Syrian partnership will have the
opportunity not only to influence American policy towards the issue that
includes them, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, but also,
as they seem to believe, to affect the outcome of the American presidential
elections. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad longs for the historical role
played by the Iranian revolution when it held American hostages during President
Jimmy Carter's term, releasing them only on the day President Ronald Reagan
assumed office.
Syrian President Bashar El-Assad dreams of playing a similarly historical role
through Syria's heading of the Arab summit. He seeks to form a new Arab system
subjected to the regional balance of power, under Iranian hegemony brought about
by America's war in Iraq, bound to developments dictated by Damascus on the
Lebanese front, and mystified as a result of the carefully planned Israeli and
Syrian disruption of the Arab peace initiative in the Middle East. Prominent on
the minds of many Arab leaders is a fundamental question: What must be done?
Especially in the transitional period of the coming nine months, charged with
all kinds of possibilities: from a war which may be deliberately sparked or may
come as a result of an unintentional blunder, to a state of complete paralysis
that could strengthen the extremist alliance and ferment new developments that
may be difficult to undo. To avoid waking up to a different state of affair, one
it may not find to its liking, the US must ask itself that same question before
it is too late. Recent developments in the Middle East have come in a large part
as a result of American policy over the past years. Israel's arrogance,
continued occupation and settlement building, and its refusal to submit to the
Roadmap for Peace, are only the result of the preferential treatment Israel has
received from the various American administrations over the past decades. The
time has come to put an end to this.
The arrogance clearly displayed in the methods of the Islamic Republic of Iran
is partly the result of President George W. Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It is high time to acknowledge this, to admit that mistakes were made, and to
prepare for what may come. The coming nine months are not inevitably subjected
to Iranian, Syrian or Israeli decisions in the absence of the US and the
international community. On the contrary, both countries and their regimes are
under international scrutiny and are subjected to sanctions, some of which have
been passed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, as is the case with Iran, and
others which most certainly will, as is the case with Syria.
Significant implications are to be found in a report published by the New York
Times concerning the American president's support for former US Administrator of
the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq Paul Bremer's initiative to
dismantle the Iraqi army, instead of simply disarming the Revolutionary Guard
while maintaining the other units of the Iraqi army intact, as the original plan
had suggested. According to the report, Bremer received President Bush's support
to the surprise of members of the National Security Council, including then
National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice.
The implication is that George W. Bush, who has often been described as a
backseat president to Vice President Dick Cheney, may not at all have been so.
It seems in fact that he is acting according to his personal convictions, as one
of the people closest to him has certified, objecting to the mistaken assumption
that George W. Bush is a mere victim of the judgment of others in his
administration.
During the few remaining months of his term, the controversial American
president will have the opportunity to draw on aspects of his personality in the
service of convictions he claims to be at the core of America's national
interests. Prominent among these is establishing a Palestinian state, ensuring
Lebanon's independence and stability, and preventing further deterioration of
the situation in Iraq.
Let George W. Bush get angry at Israel's refusal to honor its commitments. Those
same commitments the American president made when he promised to work hard and
expressed his optimism regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state in
2008, before the end of his term in office. Let the American president be
explicit, and make it clear to Israel that the US will no longer be able to
cover up and justify Israel's violations, under the pretext of rockets fired by
Hamas. Let him publicly declare that the construction of Israeli settlements
represents a blatant breach of obligations under the Roadmap for Peace, and that
the US does not consent to the collective punishment of the Palestinians in Gaza
under the guise of retaliation against Hamas.
The truth is that Israel and Hamas are partners in the crime of systematically
undermining the Palestinian Authority. Both sides need to maintain the conflict,
both reject the obligations and demands of peace. Hence, each conveniently
summons the other to clashes and confrontations, to whom civilians, and
aspirations for peace on the basis of a two-state solution, fall victim.
How strange are the calls, by American institutions, studies and publications,
to embrace Hamas and include it in ongoing negotiations. This either reflects
naiveté or is in fact a deliberate attempt to weaken the Palestinian Authority,
represented by President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayad, in the
course of the negotiations to establish a Palestinian state.
There is much that raises suspicion in a recent report published by the
International Crisis Group. The first section of the report includes some
objectionable statements, such as in its first few lines which state that "The
policy of isolating Hamas and imposing political sanctions on Gaza has proved
bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is on the
rise, causing harm to both Gazans and Israelis. The economic situation has
collapsed, generating anger and despair. President Mahmoud Abbas and other
pragmatists have lost all credibility."
These words clearly indicate the group's bias against the Palestinian Authority;
a truly intriguing bias, especially upon closer examination of the members of
this group, whose recommendations are notoriously patronizing. What could be the
motive behind discrediting President Mahmoud Abbas and mocking the other
pragmatists, in a hint to Salam Fayad?
The increasing violence is the result of the policies and actions of both Hamas
and Israel, not those of pragmatists within the Palestinian Authority. Gaza is
suffering from sanctions and collective punishment as a result of decisions
taken by Hamas and the Israeli government, but certainly not of those taken by
the Palestinian Authority.
If the purpose of such smear campaigns is to create channel between Hamas and
Israel, then they are unnecessary. Indeed, such channels have already been
opened through Arab and non-Arab sponsors. To speak of agreements between Israel
and Hamas over issues such as a cease-fire and putting an end to the
assassinations of Palestinian leaders in return for a cessation of
rocket-launching against Israel is one thing, but if the purpose of the sponsors
and campaigners is to weaken the Palestinian Authority who is negotiating with
Israel, then it is a completely different matter. Israel and Hamas can exchange
all the love they want, but if their goal and the objective of those supporting
such a love affair is to undermine the Palestinian Authority, then the real goal
is to entirely cripple the negotiations leading to the establishment of a
Palestinian state on the basis of the two-state solution.
Accordingly, if the American president is serious about his commitments toward
establishing a Palestinian state, then let him get angry at his Israeli allies
who have repeatedly and persistently evaded all peaceful solutions. The problem
does not lie with Hamas alone, but also with Israel. Moreover, Hamas does not
act independently for the sake of the Palestinian people suffering under
occupation. But rather, it acts in accordance with the needs of a radical
regional agenda, based in Damascus and Tehran, whose foundation is the rejection
of the two-state solution.
The main link in the extremist alliance is Damascus, which is preparing to head
the Arab summit and to exploit this position in the service of Iran's interests
and its own. The deep inter-Arab division is not only over Lebanon and Syria's
insistence that Lebanon is a trading card that it will not give up under any
circumstances. The real battle is over the fate of Arab-Iranian relations in the
light of Iran's insistence that it has the upper hand, allowing it to finally
export its model to the rest of the region.
The means of reaching this goal are not limited to Iraq, which plays a central
role in Iran's strategy. They also involve turning Lebanon into a base for the
prototype of the Iranian Islamic Republic, and include Syria as the link with
Hezbollah and the home-base of extremist Palestinian organizations.
The current Syrian leadership embraces wars of the same "logic", as it did under
late President Hafez Assad. This involves interplay between the logic of
resistance and the logic of negotiation. The Syrian-Iranian relationship, a
strategic one under the rule of Assad Senior, has turned into a relationship of
dependence for survival, intimidation and vendetta under the rule of Assad
Junior. The latter has in fact informed several of his visitors that he would
never give up his alliance with Tehran or Hezbollah in Lebanon under any
circumstances.
The ideas exchanged by Arab leaders include what can be described as the "logic
of caution", without expressing fear of retaliation or escalation in confronting
Damascus. It may be said he who gains from threatening to use revenge is he who
threatens to use instruments available to him to get back at his direct Arab
neighbors, because this allows him to buy time and because his neighbors are
either too weak or afraid of retaliation.
However, caution also implies close scrutiny and readiness for the mistakes that
Tehran and Damascus will inevitably make, as they assume that the coming nine
months represent their opportunity to subdue others in the Arab region.
Moreover, the ideology adopted by the two regimes will ultimately fail to spread
in the region, and especially in Lebanon. It is an ideology that defies nature,
and hence will inevitably fail, no matter how strongly its advocates believe it
to be exportable or even sustainable.
It may be a while before the triumph of the logic that refuses to submit to
oppression, blackmail and fear of retaliation. The path to victory will be a
difficult one, not for those who embrace caution, but for those who embrace
arrogance and claim to have no fear in their hearts, when in reality panic is
eating at their hearts and depriving them of sleep. After all, the International
Tribunal has been launched and those implicated in political assassinations in
Lebanon will be brought to justice. The Security Council will also have to
impose sanctions on Syria if it does not comply with its resolutions.
George Bush may or may not be angry enough to warn Damascus to leave Lebanon
alone, but it is likely that the regime in Damascus will commit sufficient
mistakes in the coming nine months and in the days that follow.
The American presidential candidates, as well as the current president, have all
made it clear that Lebanon will not be a bargaining chip. Some may engage in
dialogue with Syria and Iran, and may negotiate with either or both, but none
will sacrifice Lebanon for any kind of agreement. The reason is simply that all
have finally understood the meaning of the battle for Lebanon.
As such a battle is critical for the Arab world and for the interests of the
international community in the region, it is necessary to keep close watch not
only of current events, but also of developments that will arise before the Arab
summit takes place at the end of this month. It is necessary to take
precautionary and punitive measures during the coming nine months, which Tehran
and Damascus assume to be an appropriate time for disruption and revenge