LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 23/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 6,51-58. I am the living bread that came down from heaven; whoever eats this bread will live forever; and the bread that I will give is my flesh for the life of the world." The Jews quarreled among themselves, saying, "How can this man give us (his) flesh to eat?" Jesus said to them, "Amen, amen, I say to you, unless you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you do not have life within you. Whoever eats my flesh and drinks my blood has eternal life, and I will raise him on the last day. For my flesh is true food, and my blood is true drink. Whoever eats my flesh and drinks my blood remains in me and I in him. Just as the living Father sent me and I have life because of the Father, so also the one who feeds on me will have life because of me. This is the bread that came down from heaven. Unlike your ancestors who ate and still died, whoever eats this bread will live forever."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports

History in the making for Hezbollah-By Sami Moubayed 22/05/08
Iran’s foreign legion wins political victory-By: W. Thomas Smith Jr. 22/05/08

Editorial: Exceptional Deal-Arab News 22/05/08

Something radically new after Doha-By Michael Young 22/05/08

Lebanon has given itself a chance to end a miserable, murderous cycle- The Daily Star 22/05/08

Hizbollah and Lebanon: the curse of a state , Robert G Rabil-Agoravox 22/05/08

Hezbollah Wins in Lebanon - Is This the "Grand Bargain" in Action?Counterterrorism Blog -22/05/05

Lebanon Gets A President-CounterCurrents.org 22/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 22/08

Lebanon: A Race between Optimism and Pessimism

Baabda Palace: General Out, General In-Naharnet

Amsheet Celebrates Local Hero Who will be President

Sheikh Hassan for Immediate Implementation of the Doha Accord

European Parliament urges Lebanon parties to implement agreement-Xinhua

Lebanon: Hizbollah needs to repair its tarnished image-Radio Netherlands

Netanyahu: Olmert using Syria talks to distract public-Ynetnews

Israelis express skepticism on Syria peace talks-The Associated Press

Netanyahu: Olmert has 'no moral right' to negotiate with Syria-Jerusalem Post

Petraeus calls Syria nuclear program troubling-The Associated Press
Berri announces Sunday vote for new Lebanese president-Monsters and Critics.com

Lebanon Will Finally Have A President on Sunday-Naharnet

Geagea: Suleiman Lebanon's First 'Real' President-Naharnet

Hariri: Egypt, Saudi were Instrumental in Backing Doha Talks-Naharnet

Lebanon Crisis Ends with Deal in Doha-Naharnet
Doha Accord Saves Lebanon from Brink but Key Issues Remain-Naharnet

U.S. Welcomes Syrian-Israeli Talks but Stresses Palestinian Track-Naharnet
Bush Stresses Support for Army During Talks with Sfeir-Naharnet

Aoun: Majority Unlikely to Nominate Saniora as New PM-Naharnet

US calls on Lebanese to follow through on political deal - Summary-Earthtimes (press release)

Five Female Inmates Escape Baabda Prison-Naharnet

US on the Outside in Peace Efforts-Washington Post

Lebanon agreement shifts power to Hezbollah-International Herald Tribune

The power of Hezbollah-Los Angeles Times
International leaders welcome news of accord reached in Qatar-AFP
Public voices cautious optimism after Doha deal-Daily Star

Lebanon's finance minister projects 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2009

Beirut shares soar on news of deal in Doha-Daily Star
Suleiman equipped to become president for all Lebanese-AFP
Lebanese rivals set to elect president after historic accord-Daily Star

Expats in Qatar pay tribute to Sheikh Hamad's mediation-Daily Star

'Something very important - no victor, no vanquished'
Relief and disbelief as sit-in comes to end-AFP
'Hopefully this is not a Band-Aid solution but is a long-lasting one-AFP
Politicians greet Doha deal with cautious optimism-Daily Star

Ban Welcomes the Important Doha Accord-Naharnet

Nabil Nicola Victimizes Saniora-Naharnet

Britain Praises Doha Accord-Naharnet

Elie Aoun: Lebanon Enters a New Era
Profile: General Michel Suleiman-Aljazeera.net

Hezbollah Wins Veto After Talks End Lebanon Stalemate (Update1)-Bloomberg

Syrian Accused of Burning Girl to Death in May Fighting-Naharnet

Suleiman: Compromise President for Divided Nation-Naharnet

Staff awaiting new man at Lebanon's presidential palace - Feature-Earthtimes (press release)

Q&A: Lebanon crisis deal-BBC News

Syria, Saudi Arabia hail Lebanon deal in reached Doha-Al-Bawaba

Washington: Doha Accord is Positive Step-Naharnet
Spain Welcomes Doha Accord-Naharnet

Iran and Syria Hail Doha Accord-Naharnet

Lebanese Voice Relief at End to Political Crisis-Naharnet

Bush Stresses Support for Army During Talks with Sfeir
Naharnet/U.S. President George Bush has announced during talks with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir his backing to the Lebanese armed forces which he said they should be solely in charge of security in Lebanon, An Nahar daily reported Thursday. It said Bush reiterated his support to Lebanon during the 45-minute talks at the White House Wednesday. The U.S. President, according to An Nahar, told Sfeir that only Lebanon's armed forces should be responsible for keeping security in the country. Bush stressed that the U.S., along with other European countries, will help the army in this regard. An Nahar said that Sfeir delivered to Bush the same memorandum that he had given to U.N. Chief Ban Ki-moon and the permanent members of the Security Council in New York. The memorandum includes a demand for an end to Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace, the demarcation of the Lebanese-Syrian border along with the establishment of diplomatic ties between Beirut and Damascus, the return of Palestinian refugees to their land, finding a solution to the Israeli-occupied Shabaa farms area, and urging countries of influence to support Lebanon. Bush told Sfeir during their talks that he is working on establishing a Palestinian state which will allow Palestinians to move freely.
Sfeir ends his visit to the United States on Thursday and heads to Spain, the fourth stop of a tour that also took him to Qatar and South Africa.
The Patriarch is scheduled to meet King Juan Carlos and other Spanish officials on Friday. Beirut, 22 May 08, 05:52

Baabda Palace: General Out, General In
Naharnet/Staff at Lebanon's Baabda presidential palace, empty for six months, are feverishly preparing for the long-awaited arrival of a new tenant, mowing the lawn, cleaning windows and dusting the chandeliers. "Everything is ready -- even the beds are made," said Naji Kozayly of the presidential media department on Thursday.
Presidential spokesman Rafic Chlala said that no sooner had news of the Doha accord ending the presidential standoff been announced on Wednesday than staff at Baabda got down to work. "We had shut down the presidential wing but now it's coming back to life," he said. "Come Sunday the national flag will once again fly high over the palace with the election of the new president and the fountain will be filled with water." Army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman is set to be elected president on Sunday following a breakthrough deal between the country's Western-backed majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition backed by Syria and Iran.
After his election, Suleiman, 59, will move into the so-called Baabda Palace, a modern-style compound built in the 1950s southeast of Beirut.
The complex has been empty since November 23, when Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his term with no elected successor because of the standoff between rival political leaders. On Thursday, however, the grounds were buzzing with activity as workers mowed the lush lawn on which every foreign head of state who visits traditionally plants a cedar tree, the national emblem. Inside the palace, staff washed windows while others dusted the crystal chandeliers and the presidential chair. The 84 palace employees, cell phones glued to their ears, hurried up and down white marble hallways lined with Roman statues.
"The private apartments of the president and his family await their arrival," said Kozayly. "There are 20 rooms plus several bathrooms and kitchens."
He said the wing, off-limits to the public, had been redecorated in a simple yet elegant style by Lahoud during his term.
In the private gardens is a pool installed by former president Amin Gemayel. "I don't know if Suleiman likes swimming, but Lahoud made great use of the pool," said Kozayly. Chlala said the palace has been left empty on a number of occasions. "Construction began under President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) but the palace was without a tenant until Charles Helou (1964-1970) moved in during the last year of his presidency as he preferred living closer to Beirut," Chlala said.
In 1976, then president Suleiman Franjieh was forced to flee the palace because of the civil war. In 1990, General Michel Aoun, who had been appointed head of an interim government by Gemayel, was ousted from Baabda in a massive Syrian military intervention that sent him into exile in France for 15 years.
Aoun is now a leader of the Syrian-backed opposition. When he moves into his new home on Sunday, Suleiman will be the fifth Lebanese president not to be greeted there by his predecessor. On hand instead will be the chief of protocol and the rest of the staff who will be only too happy to welcome their new boss.
"There was a deadly vacuum here and now it's all coming back to life," Chlala said. "With the arrival of the new head of state, the country will be able to lift its head again."(AFP) Beirut, 22 May 08, 19:37

Lebanon: A Race between Optimism and Pessimism
Lebanon was brimming with a new sense of optimism on Thursday amid hopes a deal between rival factions that pulled the nation back from the brink of civil war would be more than just a temporary reprieve. As life returned to downtown Beirut after the end of a crippling 18-month opposition protest, newspapers hailed the beginning of a new era in the deeply divided country following the agreement signed in Doha on Wednesday. "Lebanon emerges from the standoff... and Beirut comes back to life," cried the headline in the pro-opposition newspaper As-Safir. "The Doha accord opens the door for a new phase... Lebanese relieved and the Arabs satisfied," noted Al-Mustaqbal, a newspaper owned by the family of parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.
The Doha accord will see army chief Michel Suleiman elected as president on Sunday, followed by the formation of a unity government in which the opposition has veto power and a new electoral law for next year's parliamentary election. The deal between the Hizbullah-led opposition and the majority was greeted with relief by the Lebanese, weary of years of conflict and political turmoil. Many people flocked to the capital's downtown to witness the lifting of an 18-month sit-in protest against the Sunni-led government of Prime Minister Fouad Saniora that had crippled business in the area. Cleaning crews were out in force removing the few remaining tents and debris as curious onlookers walked about while restaurants, nightclubs and cafes frantically prepared to reclaim their status as the hot-spots of Beirut. Wednesday's deal followed six days of Arab-mediated crisis talks called to resolve a bitter feud that boiled over into sectarian fighting that left 65 people dead, the worst unrest since the 1975-1990 civil war. "Obviously this is a compromise between the government and the opposition, a settlement, not a solution," was the assessment of political analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb.
The crisis first erupted in November 2006 when six pro-Syrian ministers quit the Saniora cabinet and degenerated into street battles in early May, with fighters from Hizbullah and its allies temporarily seizing control of large swathes of west Beirut from their Sunni rivals. Newspapers said although the deal gave the Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition veto power in the new government, it did not represent an all-out victory for either side. "The opposition got what it wanted most -- a blocking minority," said An-Nahar, which is close to the ruling majority. "But the majority also got its main demand for parties not to resort to the use of weapons and for a dialogue to be launched on the relation of the Lebanese state with various parties."
Added As-Safir: "No one comes out of this a winner or vanquished." The pro-government French-language L'Orient Le Jour noted that the Lebanese want to believe that a new page had been turned after fears the country could descend into a new civil war. "We all want to believe that... Lebanon has not simply guaranteed itself a nice summer, with beaches and hotels full and the downtown area of Beirut teeming once again with people but that for the rest we'll see."
Parliament speaker and opposition figure Nabih Berri said in a statement that Suleiman's election would take place on Sunday at 5:00 pm (1400 GMT).
In Suleiman's hometown of Amsheet, local residents spoke with pride of the next president. "God protect him. He is a just, modest man. There is no way his tenure will pass without achievements, but there is the danger that the politicians' maneuverings will burn him," hairdresser Siham Khoury said.
Washington, a staunch backer of the ruling majority, welcomed the Doha deal while acknowledging Hezbollah's gains, with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying it was a "positive step."(AFP) Beirut, 22 May 08, 17:40

Lebanon Will Finally Have A President on Sunday
Naharnet/Parliament will convene on Sunday to elect army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman President after Lebanese leaders reached a deal in Qatar that ends the country's 18-month-old political crisis, but also gives the Hizbullah-led opposition veto power over government decisions.
The deal, reached on Wednesday with the help of Arab mediators, was immediately praised by Iran and Syria, which back Hizbullah. But it appears certain to accelerate fears in the West over Hizbullah's new power. Parliament majority leader Saad Hariri seemed to acknowledge his side had largely caved in, spurred by a sharp outbreak of violence in May after months of stalemate. "I know that the wounds are deep and my injury is deep, but we only have each other to build Lebanon," he said after the announcement of the agreement, which was brokered after five days of talks in Qatar. The various political leaders also acknowledged making compromises but justified them as essential to preventing a civil war. Beirut residents were quick to show optimism in the deal. Yet, they acknowledged that the crisis probably wasn't settled.
Some believed the agreement was a long truce to avert a civil war that was almost going to flare this month. Others, however, hoped it might improve life in Beirut as the opposition began dismantling a protest of sprawling tents in the downtown area soon after the deal was announced.
Lebanese leaders returned Wednesday evening to Beirut aboard a Qatari plane. Press reports on Thursday said Speaker Nabih Berri had a long chat with Druze leader Walid Jumblat on the plane. They said Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun sat next to former President Amin Gemayel, while Lebanese Forces official George Adwan sat beside FPM executive Jubran Bassil. Beirut, 22 May 08, 07:45

Amsheet Celebrates Local Hero Who will be President
Naharnet/Residents of the hometown of Michel Suleiman rejoiced on Thursday at his upcoming election on Sunday as president of Lebanon, even though some feared he could become a lame duck head of state because of the bitter rivalries that plague the country's politics. "I have no doubt about his exceptional qualities and high moral standards, but I'm afraid rival politicians could be a stumbling block," said shopkeeper Hanna Saadeh. A huge portrait of Sleiman welcomes visitors to the picturesque village, and the 19th century stone houses overlooking the Mediterranean are decked with Lebanese flags and pictures of the local hero.
In the main square -- renamed Army Square after Suleiman became commander of the armed forces in 1998 -- a stage has been set up and municipal workers are busy preparing for a major party after Sunday's election. Banners glorifying the president designate are displayed throughout the village, with one calling him "Our knight who comes to us with the dawn of a new day." Suleiman's upcoming election comes after a deal struck in Qatar between the mainly Shiite Hizbullah-led opposition and the largely Sunni-led Western-backed government. The accord will see Sleiman elected president, a unity government in which the opposition has veto power and a new law for parliamentary elections next year.
Siham Khoury said she was proud to have been hairdresser to the forthcoming president's wife for 18 years. "God protect him," she said. "He is a just, modest man. There is no way his tenure will pass without achievements, but there is the danger that the politicians' manoeuvrings will burn him. "Past experience is not encouraging," she added, referring to former president and army chief Emile Lahoud, who came to office "as a hero and a symbol and ended his tenure in calamity."
Sleiman comes to the presidency from the army command, just like Lahoud who began his term in 1998 by vowing to crush political corruption.
However his mandate was controversially extended in September 2005 by two years and he left office last November largely discredited.
Sleiman's name emerged as the possible successor in December, but bickering over the makeup of the new government and the electoral law delayed his election.
"We almost lost hope that he would make it to the presidency," said Saydeh Habib in a local bakery bearing a picture of Sleiman with the words "Congratulations to Lebanon." "We have been waiting for this moment for six months. "I am confident that he will spare no effort to achieve the interests of Lebanon, but in this country we go to sleep with one reality and wake up with another. May God protect us from our political leaders." Local councillor Barbar Khalifeh said a giant screen in the town square would transmit Sleiman's election live. "We are decorating the town and planning a fireworks display," he said. Meanwhile outside Sleiman's two-storey stone house, its fence decked with Lebanese flags, municipal workers hurried to finish resurfacing the road. "We hope the path to his presidency will be as smooth as the road in front of his house," said one resident.(AFP) Beirut, 22 May 08, 18:52

Lebanon Will Finally Have A President on Sunday
Naharnet/Parliament will convene on Sunday to elect army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman President after Lebanese leaders reached a deal in Qatar that ends the country's 18-month-old political crisis, but also gives the Hizbullah-led opposition veto power over government decisions. The deal, reached on Wednesday with the help of Arab mediators, was immediately praised by Iran and Syria, which back Hizbullah. But it appears certain to accelerate fears in the West over Hizbullah's new power. Parliament majority leader Saad Hariri seemed to acknowledge his side had largely caved in, spurred by a sharp outbreak of violence in May after months of stalemate. "I know that the wounds are deep and my injury is deep, but we only have each other to build Lebanon," he said after the announcement of the agreement, which was brokered after five days of talks in Qatar. The various political leaders also acknowledged making compromises but justified them as essential to preventing a civil war. Beirut residents were quick to show optimism in the deal. Yet, they acknowledged that the crisis probably wasn't settled. Some believed the agreement was a long truce to avert a civil war that was almost going to flare this month. Others, however, hoped it might improve life in Beirut as the opposition began dismantling a protest of sprawling tents in the downtown area soon after the deal was announced.
Lebanese leaders returned Wednesday evening to Beirut aboard a Qatari plane. Press reports on Thursday said Speaker Nabih Berri had a long chat with Druze leader Walid Jumblat on the plane. They said Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun sat next to former President Amin Gemayel, while Lebanese Forces official George Adwan sat beside FPM executive Jubran Bassil. Beirut, 22 May 08, 07:45

Five Female Inmates Escape Baabda Prison
Naharnet/Five female inmates scaled a razor-wired window and escaped the Baabda prison at 3:30 am Thursday climbing down the first floor with bed sheets tied together. Police said the prisoners got into a car waiting for them near Antonine academy. The inmates were identified as Rowaida Hasan al-Sayyed, Samira Youssef Rafeh and Sumaya Hussein Fakih as well as Samiha Mounir Alou and her daughter Mona Ghanem Alou. Security forces were able to re-arrest Samira Rafeh and put her back in prison. Beirut, 22 May 08, 09:50

Geagea: Suleiman Lebanon's First 'Real' President
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman would be Lebanon's first "real" President. Geagea said after waiting 18 years of Syrian dominance over Lebanon, "Gen. Suleiman would be the first real President." "Suleiman will be the first real president after the late Rene Mouawad," he said. Geagea agreed that what was achieved in Doha was the best of all possible options. He stressed, however, that the most important part was implementing the accord. "After the sit-in in downtown Beirut has been lifted, we will now move to electing a president," Geagea told reporters. "The Parliament, which was closed for more than a year, will now open its doors," he added. "We will finally leave the streets and return to state institutions," Geagea said. Beirut, 22 May 08, 11:03

Aoun: Majority Unlikely to Nominate Saniora as New PM
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun said the majority will unlikely nominate Premier Fouad Saniora as Lebanon's new Prime Minister. "I believe the majority would not nominate Saniora to head the new cabinet," Aoun said in an interview on his own Orange TV late Wednesday. He said his FPM would be represented by five ministers in the new cabinet. Aoun said "all the Lebanese emerged victorious from Doha," stressing that the accord is "binding until the 2009 parliamentary elections only." He said the agreement which calls for the election of Gen. Michel Suleiman president has "relieved me from the presidency burden." Aoun confirmed that a "memorandum of understanding" signed by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and himself "still persists," adding that Hizbullah weapons "don't scare off the Lebanese." "Had it not been for the military operations (by Hizbullah), the Arabs wouldn't have moved to help Lebanon," Aoun said. Beirut, 22 May 08, 09:41

Hariri: Egypt, Saudi were Instrumental in Backing Doha Talks
Naharnet/MP Saad Hariri said Egypt and Saudi Arabia were instrumental in backing inter-Lebanese talks in Doha. Hariri described the Doha agreement as a "historic accord," adding that he hoped for a "new era in Lebanon.""The agreement would heal the wound resulting from what has happened," he said. Beirut, 22 May 08, 08:15

Hezbollah Wins in Lebanon - Is This the "Grand Bargain" in Action?
By Andrew Cochran
May 21, 2008 -Counterterrorism
Today is a day which we should mark on the calendar and remember for a long time. For on this day, it became abundantly clear that the Iranian-Syrian axis now controls Lebanon through Hezbollah, and Al Qaeda and the Taliban now control the Northwest provinces in Pakistan (see ABC News and the AP story). Both groups of terrorists won through sustained asymmetric (and, in Lebanon, conventional) warfare which eventually collapsed the will of the opposition, which was not supported in any material way by the United States and other nations. I want to concentrate on the events in Lebanon in this post.
Just eight days ago, in an emergency briefing that I helped to arrange on Capitol Hill for Congressional staff, Walid Phares accurately diagnosed the long-term Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah strategy and forecast the outcome unless forces supporting the Cedars Revolution, specifically the U.S. and the U.N., would quickly mobilize. That didn't happen; I suspect, based on past experience, that the Administration couldn't come to a quick determination on the course of action, with the State Department probably at odds with other elements and the White House unable to build a coherent and forceful counterstrategy in time. As Walid posted below, Hezbollah not only built and runs a private strategic telecom network inside Lebanon, but now, thanks to the "victory treaty," it is capable of moving large numbers of men and material right into southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah's sizable conventional and asymmetric forces are a giant dagger aimed straight at Israel. What's the response? For some time, powerful officials in Washington and elsewhere have whispered about a "Grand Bargain" with Syria, to be concluded with the assistance of other Arab states. Rep. Gary Ackerman, chairman of the U.S. House Middle East subcommittee, concisely described the outlines of that proposal at a Congressional hearing on April 24:
"Many analysts believe that the relationship between Iran and Syria is a purely tactical and transactional one. Implicit in this belief is the idea that if only the United States would make Syria an offer of sufficient size and sweetness, the axis from Tehran to Damascus could be shattered and the Middle East transformed. Syria, in this view, might even join our team.
In exchange for the return of the Golan Heights, and the restoration of its overlordship of Lebanon, Syria would renege on its relationship with Hezbollah, give Hamas the boot, and slam the door shut on Iran. The mullahs would be cut-off from their Lebanese and Palestinian terrorist proxies and isolated completely in the region. The flow of jihadis from Syria would dry up-perhaps in return for a restoration of Saddam’s old largess with Iraq’s oil-and the situation in Iraq would settle down, further isolating Iran from the Arab hinterland. Faced with a united Middle East, the ayatollahs would set their dreams of hegemony and Islamic revolution aside, and give up their nuclear program in exchange for international security guarantees."
Notice the catch: "The restoration of its (Syria's) overlordship of Lebanon." That has now occurred through its proxies in Lebanon.
But be careful what you wish for - note Rep. Ackerman's assessment of the "Grand Bargain" that day in his statement:
"I’m not convinced. It sounds lovely, and it has a sort of logic to it. But it’s a fantasy. The relationship between Iran and Syria is longstanding, durable, and is based on a bedrock of shared interests. This relationship is meant to fulfill each party’s deepest strategic aspirations and regional ambitions. Neither state wishes to live as a second class citizen in a Middle East ordered, organized and run by Washington, Cairo, and Riyadh. They have bigger dreams."
So is today's news of talks between Israel and Syria, brokered by the U.S. and Turkey, the result of Israel's realization that it cannot count on the U.S. and U.N. to defend its northern border from a Hezbollah-led invasion or sustained guerilla warfare? Will it offer to return the Golan Heights in the hopes that it can forestall the inevitable Hezbollah invasion with guarantees for defensive measures by the U.S. and U.N.?
I agree with Rep. Ackerman, and I hope we don't see some American official waving a piece of paper and declaring "We have peace in our time" over this. Because right now, the good Lebanese have lost their freedom, and the new peace in Beirut is just an illusion. There's nothing grand and no bargain in that.

Lebanese Leaders Agree to End Crisis after Talks in Doha
Lebanese leaders reached an agreement in Doha early Wednesday to end a long-running political crisis that nearly drove the country to a new civil war.
The agreement, announced by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani after days of tense talks in Doha, will see the election of a president for Lebanon within 24 hours. Prime Minister Fouad Saniora described the Doha deal as a "great achievement in the history of the Arab nation and the history of Lebanon." The two sides have been negotiating since Friday in an Arab-mediated bid to end a political standoff that erupted into deadly street battles earlier this month, the worst sectarian unrest in Lebanon since the 1975-90 civil war.
The deal covers the election of army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman as president, the formation of a national unity government and a ban on the use of weapons in any internal conflict. Immediately after the deal was announced, Parliament Speaker and opposition stalwart Nabih Berri announced that an 18-month opposition protest that has paralyzed much of the heart of downtown Beirut would end immediately.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said that Damascus, the former power broker in Lebanon which now supports the opposition, backs the Doha deal.
The rival factions had agreed last year on electing Suleiman as a successor to Damascus protégé Emile Lahoud, who stepped down at the end of his term in November, leaving the deeply divided nation without a head of state. But the Sunni-led government and the mainly Shiite Muslim opposition have long differed over power-sharing in a proposed unity government and a new electoral law.
Under Wednesday's deal, the ruling majority would have 16 cabinet seats and be able to choose the prime minister. The opposition would have 11 ministerial posts while another three would be nominated by the elected president, who under Lebanon's multi-confessional system must be a Maronite Christian.
Lebanon's parliament has so far put off 19 attempts to vote for a new president, with the next session previously planned for June 10.
The talks had been on a knife-edge on Tuesday after the Syria- and Iran-backed opposition refused to put off debating the electoral law, and insisted on a "blocking minority" in a unity government. The proposed changes to the electoral law could prove decisive in determining the outcome of parliamentary elections due next year. Rival parties aim to secure as many as possible of the capital's 19 seats in the 128-member parliament.
The new elections law mandates all parties to "commit themselves not to use weapons or violence in order to achieve political gains under any circumstances." That language, however, leaves the status of Hizbullah arms ambiguous.
The crisis erupted in November 2006 when six pro-Syrian ministers quit the Saniora cabinet, which has the support of Washington and regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia. It degenerated into street battles in early May which saw gunmen from Hizbullah and its allies temporarily seize control of large swathes of west Beirut from their Sunni rivals and left a total of 65 people dead. Disagreements over Hizbullah's large arsenal also proved a stumbling block in the talks, with government representatives insisting that it be on the agenda and the Shiite group saying the issue is not up for discussion.
Hizbullah, the most powerful armed group in Lebanon, was the only movement not required to disarm after the civil war. It has sought to justify the exemption as a means to defend the country against Israel, with which it fought a devastating 2006 war.
The relationship between Lebanon and the U.N. investigation into the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 10 others was left unresolved as well, the Times said. The talks put an end to weeks of violence rocking Lebanon. Hizbullah fighters took to the streets May 7 when the Siniora government announced its opposition to the movement's private telecommunications network.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 21 May 08, 07:05

Washington: Doha Accord is Positive Step
The United States welcomed Wednesday's accord between Lebanese leaders as a positive step, a State Department official said. "This agreement has been reached in Doha is really a welcome development," David Welch, deputy secretary for Near Eastern affairs, told reporters here. "It is a necessary and positive step toward accomplishing what the Arab League's initiative on Lebanon was designed to do," electing a president of Lebanon, forming a new government and revising the electoral law, he said. Rival Lebanese leaders clinched a deal on Wednesday to end an 18-month political feud that exploded into deadly sectarian fighting this month and nearly drove the country to a new civil war. The agreement, announced after days of tense talks in Doha, will see the election of a president for Lebanon within days and the creation of a unity government in which the Hezbollah-led opposition will have the power of veto. Lebanese lawmakers will gather on Sunday to elect army chief Michel Suleiman president following the deal, a senior advisor to Prime Minister Fouad Saniora told AFP in Beirut on Wednesday.(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 17:03

Spain Welcomes Doha Accord
Spain on Wednesday welcomed the "important" agreement clinched in Doha aimed at ending an 18-month crisis in Lebanon that came close to civil war, saying it paved the way for peace in the country. "The government of Spain sends its warmest congratulations to the Lebanese political forces for the agreement reached in Doha to elect the consensus candidate, General Michel Suleiman, as president," the foreign ministry said in a statement. "Spain, which along with France and Italy, contributed to the mediation efforts, trusts that the Lebanese people will be able to take advantage of the opportunities opened up by this important agreement and by the peace prospects that are opening up in the Middle East," it added. The agreement foresees the election within days of Suleiman as president and the creation of a unity government in which the Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has veto powers.It also bans any resort to weapons in pursuit of political aims and includes an agreement on a new electoral law.(AFP)
Beirut, 21 May 08, 16:57

Sarkozy Describes Qatar Accord as "Great Success"
Naharnet/French President Nicolas Sarkozy hailed the breakthrough deal at Doha that ended Lebanon's long political stalemate
Sarkozy said the deal was a "great success for Lebanon and all the Lebanese, whose courage and patience never failed despite the ordeals they have been through."
The Qatar deal was also a triumph for the tiny energy-rich Gulf state. The Lebanese stalemate had defied mediation efforts by other Arab and European countries, including shuttle diplomacy in the last year by the foreign minister of France.(Naharnet-AP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 19:00

Iran and Syria Hail Doha Accord
Naharnet/Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Husseini described the deal brokered by Qatar between the Lebanese feuding parties an "example of regional integration for achieving stability and tranquility."Iran's staunch ally, Syria, also promptly endorsed the deal. "Lebanon's security and stability are important and vital to Syria's security and stability," Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said. As Lebanon came close to an all-out war, Arab League mediators intervened and got the sides to agree to hold negotiations in Qatar on resolving the crisis that has paralyzed the country for more than a year.(AP-Naharnet)
Beirut, 21 May 08, 18:52

Suleiman: Compromise President for Divided Nation
Naharnet/Army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman, who is set to become Lebanon's 12th president, is viewed as a man acceptable to Syria who kept his troops united in the face of the country's political and security crises. Suleiman is expected to be elected by parliament within 24 hours under a deal announced in Qatar on Wednesday after days of talks between rival factions to end a long-running crisis that drove the country to the brink of civil war.
Suleiman, 59, was appointed commander-in-chief of the armed forces in 1998 when Syria still held sway in Lebanon's political affairs.
Although some accuse him of being a supporter of Damascus, he has managed in his near 10 years as head of the military to steer clear of taking sides in Lebanon's sectarian divide and the standoff over the presidency. Still, his troops came under heavy criticism during this month's sectarian violence which shook Lebanon for largely standing by as armed Hizbullah militants and their allies took over Sunni districts of mainly Muslim Beirut.
Suleiman defended his actions, saying the army's unity was paramount and that its role was to remain neutral and not enter into the political fray.
"Involving the army in internal clashes only serves the interests of Israel," the general said at the weekend as he toured troop positions in southern Lebanon.
His expected election follows drawn-out talks between the Western-backed ruling majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition to end a standoff that had left Lebanon without a president since November when pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud stepped down. Suleiman remained neutral during the presidential crisis and appealed to his troops after Lahoud stepped down to ignore the political bickering and "listen to the call of duty". "The army is my life, I am attached to it and I would never want to see it divided," Suleiman told AFP at the time.
He said he is in favor of Beirut establishing normal relations with Damascus as a neighboring country and rejects accusations of being under Syrian influence.
"We shouldn't just insult Syria but we should rather have equitable relations as two sovereign states," Suleiman said. Although he hails from the Christian Maronite community, from which Lebanon's president is drawn, Suleiman says he is against religion playing a central part in politics. An affable and soft-spoken man, Suleiman gained respect three years ago when the army stayed on the sidelines of massive rallies that shook the country after the February 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafik Hariri. He refused to deploy the army to crush the demonstrations, which led to Syria withdrawing its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence. Damascus has been accused of orchestrating Hariri's murder but denies involvement.
Several other events that have shaken the country since Hariri's killing further strengthened Suleiman's position. That included the deployment of the army in south Lebanon for the first time in decades in summer 2006 after the Hizbullah-Israel war and its September 2007 victory over Islamist extremists at a refugee camp in northern Lebanon. The army itself kept out of the conflict with Israel.
In January 2007, he imposed a brief curfew -- the first in a decade -- to quell street fighting between Sunnis and Shiites that left four dead and more than 100 injured. Suleiman, who hails from the northern coastal town of Amsheet, joined the army in 1967, following in the footsteps of his father who was a member of the Internal Security Forces. "I had always dreamed of becoming an engineer but my family had modest means so I took my father's advice and joined the army," he said. "I don't regret the decision but it wasn't always an easy road."He graduated from the military academy in 1970 and moved up the ranks until being appointed commander in chief in December 1998.He lived through Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, even missing his daughter's birth in 1975 because of the fighting. "I saw her when she was 22 days old," he told AFP. The general is married to Wafaa Suleiman and has three children. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political and Administrative Sciences from the Lebanese University. His hobbies are swimming, walking and tennis.(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 14:04

Syrian Accused of Burning Girl to Death in May Fighting
Naharnet/A Syrian man has been accused of burning a teenager to death as she stopped along the airport highway to inquire about the status of roads on May 7, the day when scores of Hizbullah trucks and bulldozers erected barricades and besieged the airport. The daily An Nahar, citing security sources, identified the girl, as 15-year-old Aline H.A.It said Aline, who had been in the company of her mother, stepped out of the taxi as it reached burning tires along the airport highway that were also set ablaze by the Hizbullah-led opposition on that day.Aline was stopped by the Syrian, identified only as Mahmoud M.S., who poured combustible liquid on her body and tossed a lit match on her flammable-soaked clothing, setting her on fire.
She fell on the ground after screaming for help. Then she was taken to Rafik Hariri hospital where she soon died. An Nahar said Mahmoud, the Syrian, killed Aline with help from Omar J.S. It said both suspects fled right after their crime and are still at large. On the same day, An Nahar said, and shortly after Ahmad A.D. had dropped students to their school, he was surprised by an earth mound erected in Hay el-Sillum in Beirut's southern suburbs.
Ahmad, who was in the company of his brother, Mohammed A.D, pleaded with the gunmen to help him cross the barricade so they could get home, a move that apparently angered the armed elements. The brothers were beaten and stabbed several times in their bodies before a group of "wise volunteers" stepped in and took the victims to hospital, the daily said. Beirut, 21 May 08, 14:18

Lebanese Voice Relief at End to Political Crisis
Naharnet/Weary Lebanese expressed relief on Wednesday at the announcement of a deal to end 18 months of crisis that drove the country to the brink of civil war but concern it might be only a temporary reprieve. "Hopefully this is not a Band-Aid solution and is a long-lasting one," said Aleco Assaf, 64, a resident of Beirut. "People need to live in peace." Throughout the country people were glued to radio or television sets listening to the Qatari prime minister announce the deal between government and opposition leaders after six days of talks in Doha. "I am very optimistic because finally we're going to be able to live," said Josiane Nakad, who sells swimwear in the Hamra district of west Beirut. "I haven't had many sales lately because people didn't know whether they would be spending their summer on the beach or under the bombs. "I just hope this is a long-lasting accord and not just a reprieve."On the streets, in coffee shops and in telephone conversations, people could be heard congratulating each other on the end to the deadlock between the government and the opposition that erupted in sectarian bloodshed earlier this month. In the southern coastal city of Tyre, drivers honked their horns on hearing the announcement with some shouting "Mabrouk" (congratulations).
"Since the deal was announced sales have been brisk," said Abu Fadi, who sells Lotto tickets in Beirut. "In the last two days no one was buying but today everyone is hoping that the deal will bring them luck." Beirut resident Zeinab al-Said, 28, said she was especially happy that the agreement had brought an end to the opposition's 18-month-old protest camp outside the government's headquarters that turned part of the city center into a ghost town.
"I am ecstatic," she told AFP. "I am sure things will get better. We're going to be OK." Some older Lebanese expressed skepticism, however, that the rival leaders had really buried the hatchet. "I have seen a lot in my 85 years and it usually only calms down a bit to start over again later," said Elie, who would not give his last name. "Maybe I'll be lucky enough to die when it's calm."(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 12:42

France Hails Lebanon Agreement
Naharnet/France on Wednesday hailed an agreement in Qatar to end Lebanon's crisis as an "essential step" to returning the country to "unity, stability and independence."In a statement in which he recalled his own mediation efforts, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said it now was up to "all Lebanese" to strive for national reconciliation. The agreement -- between Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government and the Iranian- and Syrian-backed opposition led by Hizbullah -- is "an essential step in fully restoring the unity, stability and independence of Lebanon."(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 10:53

Muallem: Syria Backs Lebanon Agreement
Naharnet/Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, whose country supports Lebanon's opposition, told AFP on Wednesday that Damascus backs the agreement reached between rival Lebanese leaders in Qatar. "Syria supports all that the brethren in Lebanon agree on," said Muallem, who was in Bahrain to attend an Arab-Chinese forum. "We in Syria hail the efforts of the Arab (mediation) committee and underscore the importance of the entente reached among the brethren in Lebanon," he said."We hope this understanding will pave the way for a solution to the political crisis in Lebanon," Muallem added.(AFP)
Beirut, 21 May 08, 10:23

2 Hizbullah Gunmen Arrested After Helping a Suspicious Car Cross Into Syria
Naharnet/Two Hizbullah gunmen were arrested in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Tuesday after helping a suspicious vehicle cross into Syria without inspection by Lebanese customs, An Nahar daily reported. The newspaper on Wednesday quoted official security sources as saying the gunmen were arrested after helping the occupants of the vehicle, a Lebanese identified as Ahmed H. and two Iranians, to cross the Masnaa border. An Nahar said the gunmen were carrying safe passage cards issued by the Lebanese army's intelligence unit in the name of Abbas Sh. and Mohammed Ali L. The official sources told the newspaper that the two armed men intervened at the Masnaa crossing to stop the search by the Lebanese customs which became suspicious of bags inside the vehicle. The car then sped away and entered Syrian territories, the sources added. Beirut, 21 May 08, 06:15

'Disgusted' Lebanese
Naharnet/Nahida Ghandour is leaving Lebanon and she won't be looking back.
Like many of her fellow citizens, the latest bout of sectarian violence to rock Lebanon has pushed her over the edge and left her with a deep sense of disgust toward the country's rival politicians as they battle it out for power. "This last round was it and I decided to pack up and leave to Kuwait," said Ghandour, 38, an interior designer who lives in Corniche al-Mazraa. Her west Beirut neighborhood was turned into a battleground earlier this month between militants loyal to the Shiite opposition group Hizbullah and Sunni supporters of Lebanon's ruling coalition. Although the guns have fallen silent and negotiations between the rival camps on ending a presidential stalemate have been held in Qatar since Friday, many Lebanese have grown disillusioned with their leaders and expect little.
"From the first day I opened my eyes this country has been at war and I've had enough," said Ghandour, whose father is Sunni and mother Shiite.
"If our leaders wanted to agree, they could have done so on their own land rather than going to Qatar." Salim Fanous, a resident of Ras an-Nabaa, a mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhood that was also the scene of fierce clashes, said he held out little hope for lasting peace.
"Our leaders are all liars and traitors working for their own ends," he said. "They have been playing with us for more than 30 years and we all know that this is all a political game.""People are disgusted with their lies, they must take us for idiots," added Fanous, as he stood near a bullet-riddled white jeep with flat tires -- a stark reminder of the latest violence. "They play with us like a bottle of soda that you shake until it foams up and then dies down."
The anger and exhaustion of many Lebanese from the constant turmoil in their country has been summed up by demonstrations held along the road leading to Beirut's international airport by non-governmental organizations. "If you don't agree, don't come back," read signs held up by protesters, some of them handicapped from the civil war. "Agree, shame on you," read another message to the bickering leaders, while a third said, "We want to raise our children in Lebanon."
"I have lived through many wars, beginning with World War II and I am sorry to say that these people (the leaders) have no honor, they have no brains," said Anees Suleiman Abu-Hassan, 87, a resident of the mainly Druze town of Shwaifat, southeast of Beirut.
"If I had fuel, I would burn them all." A Hizbullah flag was hanging defiantly on Tuesday at an entrance to the town where pictures of young Druze men killed in the recent fighting have been plastered on buildings and cars. "We are all nauseous by what we are seeing and can't take it anymore," said Jihan, who is Druze and whose husband is Shiite Muslim. "Can you imagine that just recently we commemorated the 33rd anniversary of the start of the civil war," said Jihan, who did not want her last name used. "Now our children wait for the evening news to see what is happening in the country.
"If the politicians would just leave us, we could live in peace together," she added. "That's why we don't want them back, and if they dare return from Qatar without an agreement, we'll beat them back onto the plane."(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 02:32

Lebanon Among Least Peaceful Countries
Naharnet/Iceland is the world's most peaceful nation while Lebanon is ranked among the bottom 10 countries in the "Global Peace Index" released Tuesday.
The study, which is compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit, ranked Lebanon 132nd out of 140 countries according to how peaceful they were domestically and how they interacted with the outside world. The index also gave Lebanon a score of 2.840. The annual study gave poor marks to the U.S. and Russia, ranking them respectively 97th and 131st, and said Iraq is the most violent country in the world. Countries in the bottom five also include Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan and Israel, according to GPI. "The world appears to be a marginally more peaceful place this year. This is encouraging, but it takes small steps by individual countries for the world to make greater strides on the road to peace," said GPI founder Steve Killelea. The study's authors take into account 24 indicators, ranging from levels of violent crime to U.N. deployments overseas, and from political instability for risk of terrorist attacks. On these grounds Iceland rates the best, followed by Denmark, Norway and New Zealand, while Japan is the highest member of the Group of Eight (G8) leading industrialized nations in the rankings. Beirut, 21 May 08, 02:04

Israel Officially Confirms Indirect Peace Talks with Syria
Naharnet/Israel and Syria on Wednesday said they are holding indirect peace talks through Turkish mediators -- the first official confirmation of contacts between the longtime enemies. In statements issued minutes apart, the two governments said they "have declared their intent to conduct these talks in good faith and with an open mind," with a goal of reaching "a comprehensive peace." Both nations thanked Turkey for its help, and Turkey issued its own confirmation. Muslim Turkey has good ties with both Israel and Syria. There have been media reports and broad hints from Israeli officials in recent months of new Israeli-Syrian contacts through Turkey, and Turkey's foreign minister said earlier this month that his country was trying to bring the sides together. But this was the first official confirmation that contacts have actually resumed. An Israeli government official said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's chief of staff and diplomatic adviser have been in Turkey since Monday. "In parallel their Syrian counterparts are in Turkey as well," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the talks. He declined to discuss the substance of the talks. Turkey's NTV television said the Israeli and Syrian delegations were in Istanbul but not meeting directly. Instead, it said Turkish mediators were shuttling between them.
Israel and Syria are bitter enemies whose attempts at reaching peace have repeatedly failed in the past, most recently in 2000. The nations have fought three wars, and their forces have also clashed in Lebanon.
Peace with Syria would require Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed.
Today, the heights are home to 18,000 Israelis and roughly the same number of Druze Arabs who regard themselves as Syrian nationals. Syrian and Israeli forces are separated by U.N. peacekeepers.
A committee representing Israeli settlers on the Golan said Olmert's move "put the State of Israel's survival at risk." "The people of Israel will not support such a deluded and irresponsible move, which would hand over such a vital Israeli strategic asset to the Arab axis of evil," the Golan Residents Council said.
Israelis generally regard the Golan as an important buffer against Syrian attack. With its wineries and small inns, the Golan is also a popular destination for Israeli tourists. Just weeks ago, Olmert spent a vacation in the Golan. Weakened by a corruption investigation, Olmert could face a tough time selling a Golan withdrawal to the public. Peace talks with Syria also could divert attention from newly relaunched Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, which aim to reach an agreement by the end of the year. But Israel and the U.S., he said, are unlikely to move ahead with talks unless Syria "disengages" from Iran. "No Israeli government wants Iran in the Golan Heights," he said.(AP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 18:38

Facts about Golan Heights, Disputed between Israel and Syria
Israel and Syria on Wednesday said they are holding indirect peace talks through Turkish mediators -- the first official confirmation of renewed contacts between the longtime enemies. The territorial dispute between Israel and Syria centers on the Golan Heights. Here are facts about the territory:
-- Location: Plateau at southwestern corner of Syria overlooking Sea of Galilee and northern Israel.
-- Approximate size: 65 kilometers long, 25 kilometers wide, 1250 square kilometers.
-- History: Syrian soldiers shelled northern Israel from the Golan Heights between 1948 and 1967. Israel captured the territory in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel annexed it in 1981 but no country recognized that.
-- Population: Most of the 100,000 Syrian residents of the Golan Heights fled during the 1967 war and were not allowed to return. About 17,000 remain. A few have accepted Israeli citizenship, but most retain Syrian nationality. About 18,000 Israelis live in 32 settlements built since 1967.
-- Dispute: In 2000, Israel-Syria peace talks broke down. Israel offered to withdraw from all of the Golan Heights down to the international border in exchange for full peace. Syria insisted on recovering land across the border that it captured in 1948, including the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee. Israel was not satisfied with Syria's peace proposals.
-- Wars: Syria fought in three wars against Israel in 1948, 1967 and 1973. Syrian forces battled Israel when it invaded Lebanon in 1982. Syria is a close ally of Iran, a bitter enemy of Israel that has threatened to wipe it off the map.
-- Militants: Syria provides safe haven for various militant groups fighting Israel including Hamas and Islamic Jihad who have their headquarters in the capital Damascus.
Israeli warplanes carried out an attack on Syria last September, targeting an installation that the U.S. has said was an unfinished nuclear reactor built by North Korea.(AP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 18:09

Report: Israel Failed to Aid North after 2006 War
Naharnet/The Israeli government has failed to carry out its plan to rehabilitate the north of the country following the 2006 war in Lebanon, the state comptroller said in his annual report on Tuesday. The document, compiled by State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss, slams Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government for failing to provide adequate resources to help northern Israel, which was hit by thousands of rockets during the 34-day war against Hizbullah.
"The plan to strengthen the north created many expectations, especially among residents of (Israel's third city of) Haifa and the north. The plan faded away and its effect has hardly been felt," the report said. "One would expect that after the residents of the north had to go through such a difficult war, the government would assume responsibility and take decisive action to rehabilitate it." According to the report, although the government earmarked four billion shekels (more than one billion dollars), only 2.8 billion shekels had in fact been allocated.
Another 1.2 billion shekels came from private donations, the report said. "The government's reliance on donations for issues that were given high priority... is inappropriate," Lindenstrauss said in the 1,545 page report. The ministerial committee charged with overseeing implementation of the program which was formed in the weeks following the end of the war last convened in February 2007, the report said. "The government did not prepare adequately to carry (the plan) out," the report said. "The government, and first and foremost the prime minister's office, should review the organization, the budget and the management of the program," the state comptroller's report said.(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 02:23

Syria Confirms Holding Indirect Peace Talks with Israel
Naharnet/Syria confirmed on Wednesday that it has begun indirect peace negotiations with Israel under Turkish auspices, state media reported.
"Syria and Israel have begun indirect peace negotiations under Turkish sponsorship," a foreign ministry official told the state SANA news agency.
"The two sides expressed their desire to launch negotiations in good faith and decided to pursue a dialogue in earnest to achieve the goal of a comprehensive peace in conformity with the Madrid conference."The last was a reference to a 1991 peace conference between Israel and its Arab neighbors which adopted the principle that Israel exchange territories it seized in the 1967 Middle East war in return for peace.
Israel earlier announced the launch of indirect negotiations brokered by Turkey, eight years after the last attempt at peacemaking broke down over the fate of the occupied Golan Heights. "Israel and Syria began indirect peace talks under Turkish auspices," the office of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said.
Turkey also confirmed the indirect peace negotiations had begun between the two nations, which have technically been in a state of war since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war when Israel captured the strategic Golan plateau from Syria. "The two sides declared their intention to conduct these talks frankly and openly," Olmert's office said in a statement. "They decided to conduct the dialogue in a serious and continuous manner in a bid to reach a comprehensive peace."
Two top Olmert advisors, Shalom Turgeman and Yoram Turbowitz were in Ankara holding talks with Turkish officials on the issue, senior Israeli officials said. Media reported that the two would return to Israel later on Wednesday. The last round of peace talks between Syria and Israel broke down in 2000 over the fate of the Golan, which the Jewish state annexed in 1981 in a move never recognized by the international community.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad revealed last month that Turkey had passed on a message from Israel expressing its readiness to swap the Golan Heights for peace, as Ankara renewed mediation efforts launched last year. Damascus has consistently demanded the return of the whole of the Golan down to the shores of the Sea of Galilee -- Israel's main water source -- as its price for peace. But Israel baulked at the demand in the last peace talks.
The suggestion the area could be returned to Syria is highly controversial in Israel. Housing Minister Zeev Boim, of Olmert's Kadima party, said he opposes "in principle any withdrawal from the Golan Heights." "Nevertheless we should hear exactly how and on what issues the negotiations are held," he added.
"A peace agreement can be reached with the Syrians only if they end all terror activities, including supporting and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon and giving up its strategic dependence on Iran," Boim said in a statement. Israel considers Iran -- a close ally of Syria -- its greatest strategic threat because of Tehran's accelerating nuclear program and remarks by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicting the demise of the Jewish state.
An opinion poll last month showed more than two-thirds of Israelis oppose a complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace.
The survey reported that 74 percent of Israelis "did not believe Assad was serious" about a peace deal. Earlier this month, Olmert's spokesman Mark Regev said that "preliminary work" already had been carried out towards resuming the peace talks with Syria. "We don't just want to restart only a process of negotiations, we want to start a political dialogue," he said. "The Syrians understand well what Israeli expectations are on such a process and we understand well what the Syrians' expectations are on such a process." Wednesday's announcement came just two weeks after U.S. President George Bush said he was extending U.S. sanctions against Syria following Washington's charge that Damascus had been building a nuclear reactor with North Korea's help. Bush announced on May 8 his decision to continue for one year a freeze on Syrian assets and the ban on the export of certain goods to Syria. He accused Syria of "supporting terrorism ... pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs including the recent revelation of illicit nuclear cooperation with North Korea."Syria denies the U.S. claims it has been building a secret nuclear reactor for military ends.(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 12:37
 

The NCTC gets America's counterterrorism priorities right
By David Ignatius -Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 22, 2008
At the headquarters of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), located in a bland office park in Northern Virginia, there's a unit called the "strategic analytical group" that is paid to think about the meta-questions of global terrorism: What's the nature of the threat? Is it getting worse or better? What can the United States do to bend its trajectory?
"It's our job to think through the potential nightmares," one of the officials told me when I sat down for a chat recently with three members of the group. Some of their comments raised some frightening new dangers; other themes were mildly reassuring. But my strongest impression was that these intelligence officers are trying to think creatively, without the bombastic "war on terrorism" rhetoric or reflexive responses that sometimes drove policy after September 11, 2001.
The NCTC officials stressed that their job is to offer straightforward analysis for policymakers, rather than set policy themselves. But their comments reflected a broader re-examination of the basics of counterterrorism strategy that has been taking place across the US government over the past year. The effect has been to challenge some conventional wisdom.
Let's start with the nature of the threat. Though the intelligence analysts remain focused on the danger posed by Al-Qaeda, they are also pondering what might happen if recent trends continued and that organization lost more support in the Muslim world. That unraveling of Al-Qaeda central is a primary US goal, but one of the analysts cautioned that policymakers shouldn't automatically "make an assumption that some worse monster won't evolve out of this."
Al-Qaeda has been characterized by its fairly tight command and control, systematic targeting and a concern for legitimacy in the Muslim world. If that central ethos was broken, it might set loose a free-for-all, a situation in which every terrorist operated on his own.
"If Al-Qaeda went away, the ideology would live on, but you might have less qualified people interpreting Islam," noted one analyst. He likened the situation to Algeria in the 1990s, when radical Muslim groups were cut off from real clerics and spawned a particularly vicious brand of terror.
The analysts discussed several of the "nightmares" that might arise in this world where Muslim rage continued, but without the discipline of a controlling central organization. "My doomsday scenario, aside from weapons of mass destruction, is personalized jihad," explained one analyst. "Everyone gets to do it on their own. Anyone can take a knife and stab someone in the back."
The counterterrorism strategists have also studied ways to combat radicalization of Muslims. The simple answer, they say, is intense engagement with the Muslim community. "Having the conversation signals that you take them seriously," says one analyst. Super-hot rhetoric about the "war on Islamic terrorism" can easily backfire, he notes. "If you want to engage in a conversation, it's best to use language that doesn't anger the community."
You go away from the conversation with a sense that they have their priorities right.
**Syndicated columnist David Ignatius is published regularly by THE DAILY STAR.
 

The NCTC gets America's counterterrorism priorities right
By David Ignatius
Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 22, 2008
At the headquarters of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), located in a bland office park in Northern Virginia, there's a unit called the "strategic analytical group" that is paid to think about the meta-questions of global terrorism: What's the nature of the threat? Is it getting worse or better? What can the United States do to bend its trajectory?
"It's our job to think through the potential nightmares," one of the officials told me when I sat down for a chat recently with three members of the group. Some of their comments raised some frightening new dangers; other themes were mildly reassuring. But my strongest impression was that these intelligence officers are trying to think creatively, without the bombastic "war on terrorism" rhetoric or reflexive responses that sometimes drove policy after September 11, 2001.
The NCTC officials stressed that their job is to offer straightforward analysis for policymakers, rather than set policy themselves. But their comments reflected a broader re-examination of the basics of counterterrorism strategy that has been taking place across the US government over the past year. The effect has been to challenge some conventional wisdom.
Let's start with the nature of the threat. Though the intelligence analysts remain focused on the danger posed by Al-Qaeda, they are also pondering what might happen if recent trends continued and that organization lost more support in the Muslim world. That unraveling of Al-Qaeda central is a primary US goal, but one of the analysts cautioned that policymakers shouldn't automatically "make an assumption that some worse monster won't evolve out of this."
Al-Qaeda has been characterized by its fairly tight command and control, systematic targeting and a concern for legitimacy in the Muslim world. If that central ethos was broken, it might set loose a free-for-all, a situation in which every terrorist operated on his own.
"If Al-Qaeda went away, the ideology would live on, but you might have less qualified people interpreting Islam," noted one analyst. He likened the situation to Algeria in the 1990s, when radical Muslim groups were cut off from real clerics and spawned a particularly vicious brand of terror.
The analysts discussed several of the "nightmares" that might arise in this world where Muslim rage continued, but without the discipline of a controlling central organization. "My doomsday scenario, aside from weapons of mass destruction, is personalized jihad," explained one analyst. "Everyone gets to do it on their own. Anyone can take a knife and stab someone in the back."
The counterterrorism strategists have also studied ways to combat radicalization of Muslims. The simple answer, they say, is intense engagement with the Muslim community. "Having the conversation signals that you take them seriously," says one analyst. Super-hot rhetoric about the "war on Islamic terrorism" can easily backfire, he notes. "If you want to engage in a conversation, it's best to use language that doesn't anger the community."
You go away from the conversation with a sense that they have their priorities right.
**Syndicated columnist David Ignatius is published regularly by THE DAILY STAR.

Something radically new after Doha
By Michael Young
Daily Star staff-Thursday, May 22, 2008
Whatever else is said about the agreement between Lebanon's leaders reached in Qatar on Wednesday, it will likely transform the country's political landscape. With the election of a president, alliances will change and with that we may see growing intricacy and reversals in the relationships between March 14 groups and opposition groups.
One thing that will not change, however, is the attitude of a majority of Lebanese when it comes to Hizbullah's behavior. Party officials have recklessly downplayed their armed occupation of Beirut two weeks ago, but no one, least of all the Sunnis, will soon forget what happened. So even if genuine politics return, those of compromise and shifting calculations, the structural inability of Hizbullah to coexist with a sovereign Lebanese state will not disappear. This may push domestic parties to acquire weapons for when Hizbullah again uses bullets to overcome its political shortcomings.
Like most compromises, the Doha agreement has created winners and losers on all sides - but remains nebulous enough so that the losers still feel they might gain from it. But it's difficult not to interpret what happened in Qatar as a definitive sign that Syria's return to Lebanon is no longer possible. No doubt the Syrians were in on the arrangement, and the suspicious delay in establishing the Hariri tribunal until early 2009 makes one wonder whether a quid pro quo is taking shape behind the scenes. Reports of a breakthrough on the Syrian-Israeli track, the Iraqi Army's entry into Sadr City, certainly with an Iranian green light, and signs that a truce may soon be agreed in Gaza, suggest a regional package deal may have oiled the Lebanese deal.
If there was one message emerging from the recent fighting, it was that Syria could not conceivably return its army to Lebanon without reconquering the country. Hizbullah committed several mistakes, of which two were especially egregious for Syria: The Sunni community, like the Druze and many Christians, are mobilized and will fight any Syrian comeback; and the Lebanese file is more than ever an Iranian one, because Hizbullah's destiny is at stake. Syria's allies, other than Hizbullah, were ineffective in Beirut and the mountains, in some cases even siding with the majority. This confirmed that Damascus has less leverage than ever when it comes to employing those smaller armed groups it completely controls.
The election of a president, even if he is the troubling Michel Suleiman, opens a new phase in Lebanon, one in which it is possible to imagine consolidating a state gradually breaking free from Syria's grip. That's the priority today, and has been the priority since April 2005 when the Syrian Army withdrew from the country. Whether Suleiman likes it or not, from now on he is a president, not a candidate maneuvering to become a president, which will require him to take a strong position on defending the sovereignty of the state both vis-ˆ-vis Syria and Hizbullah. That could either push him closer to the position favored by March 14 and most Lebanese, or it could damage him if he proves to be indecisive.
Will March 14 survive after this? It probably will in the face of an armed Hizbullah and Syria's foreseeable efforts to regain a foothold in Beirut. But the parliamentary majority may transform itself into a looser alignment, united on the large issues but with its leaders behaving parochially when it comes to elections and patronage. Once Suleiman is elected, he becomes an arbiter, an axial figure, in the political game. Politicians will have to position themselves either for or against him, as the president strives to build up a power base for himself in the state, particularly in Parliament. Expect Suleiman to use the army as his bludgeon, which would be regrettable, and expect tension between the officers and traditional politicians.
One unanswered question is who will be prime minister. If it is Saad Hariri, and it is difficult to imagine it won't be, the relationship between him and Suleiman will determine the face of Lebanon in the coming year before parliamentary elections. Neither of the two would relish a return to the discord between Emile Lahoud and Rafik Hariri. On top of that, if Saad becomes head of the government, he would benefit from using that position as a foundation to create networks of alliances transcending those of March 14. An electoral compact with the Armenians, particularly the Tashnag Party, would be a smart move, and could shift the balance in Beirut decisively away from Hizbullah, Amal and Syrian peons.
Another question is what happens to Walid Jumblatt? The Druze leader has placed himself at the center of March 14 - a key mediator and usually prime initiator of the coalition's policies. With a new president in place, Jumblatt's role will be largely determined by the relationship between Suleiman and his prime minister. If the prime minister is Hariri and Hariri and Suleiman work well together, Jumblatt could find himself isolated. In that case, and if history provides any lessons, he will soon be contesting Suleiman and the officers the president relies upon. Jumblatt also will have to keep Suleiman away from his Christian electorate in Aley and the Chouf. Expect him, in that case, to move closer to Christians as unenthusiastic about Suleiman: Samir Geagea and Michel Aoun.
Aoun is the great loser from a presidential election. It's not like the old general wasn't warned. He could have used his parliamentary bloc to be presidential kingmaker; instead he decided to obstruct everything in order to be elected himself. Now he has only dust to feed on, and in his final years he may find himself trying to protect his shriveling flock from the overtures of Suleiman, who, if he is clever, will pick up a large share of the disoriented Christians. One can already imagine most of Aoun's parliamentarians in the Metn gravitating toward Suleiman, knowing that their re-election depends on the goodwill of Michel Murr, who will be instrumental in moving the district the president's way.
Samir Geagea is in a better position than Aoun, both because of his close ties to Hariri and the Christian community's propensity to create counterweights to its presidents. However, his power in the Cabinet is uncertain and he too will have to fight off Suleiman's poaching among his voters. That's why his rapport with Aoun is bound to improve.
The matter of Hizbullah's weapons will be the first test for Suleiman once he is elected. The president risks losing the Sunnis if he comes out with a limp formula that sidelines any serious discussion of the topic. Now is the time to put the question of weapons on the table seriously, and Suleiman, as a former commander of the army, is in an ideal position to propose a sensible compromise. A second test for the president will be the choice of a new army commander. The head of military intelligence, George Khoury, is pining for the post, but given the army's indolence during the fighting in Beirut and Hariri's deep doubts about what happened, Suleiman may need all his dexterity to propose a successor who satisfies all sides.
Can Hizbullah be pleased with the result? It will now be able to say that it received veto power in the government and that the matter of its weapons was not discussed in Doha. It will also be able to convince its supporters that this was its latest victory after the government's decision to withdraw the two decisions last week that Hizbullah found offensive. But that may be only half the story. By so foolishly taking over Beirut militarily, the party only scared the other communities into sustained hostility. The two decisions the government went back on were decisions it could never have implemented anyway, so Hizbullah effectively revealed its coup plan at an inopportune time and for little gain. The party also has lost two cards: It has dismantled its downtown protest camp and won't be able to close the airport road for some time. Its weapons have become a subject of legitimate national discussion. And what kind of war can Hizbullah hope to wage against Israel in South Lebanon when most Lebanese, and quite a few Shiites, have no desire for war? Most importantly, Hizbullah has been about the negation of the state. If the post-Doha process is about the building of a state, then the party and that state will eventually clash.
Much will depend on Michel Suleiman. That the president will get only three ministers in a new Cabinet affirms he has serious credibility problems on all sides. Suleiman is an unknown quantity. Will he be a faithful partner of Syria, as when he was army commander? Or will he realize that he can be more than that? In many ways Suleiman is a peculiar creation as president, someone never destined to inherit the office. Now he has a chance to become the long-awaited patron of a new and consensual Lebanese political order. Let's hope he's up to it.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

International leaders welcome news of accord reached in Qatar
Syria voices support, Iran congratulates all Lebanese
By Agence France Presse (AFP) Compiled by Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Syria was among the first countries to welcome an agreement among Lebanese leaders on Wednesday to end 18 months of political conflict, saying that it hoped Parliament would elect a president on Sunday. The Qatari News Agency announced that Syrian President Bashar Assad called Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani to congratulate him on the agreement that was reached by the Lebanese leaders in Doha.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem had already expressed from Yemen his support for the agreement.
Under Arab League auspices, rival Lebanese leaders clinched a deal on Wednesday to end the political feud that exploded into deadly fighting on May 5 and nearly drove the country into a new civil war.
The agreement, announced in Doha, will see the election of a president for Lebanon within days and the creation of a unity government in which the Hizbullah-led opposition will have the power of veto.
Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Lebanon, whose country backs the Beirut government, said on Wednesday that Riyadh supports the agreement reached between rival leaders in Qatar.
"Saudi Arabia announces its support for the agreement between the Lebanese in Doha. We are very happy that this accord has been reached," Abdel-Aziz Khoja, who is currently in Riyadh, told AFP.
Regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia backs the Cabinet of Premier Fouad Siniora, who also has the support of the United States and other Western powers.
Iran, the main foreign supporter with Syria of the Lebanese opposition, also welcomed the deal on Wednesday.
"Iran welcomes and is pleased about the agreement reached by the Lebanese factions," the ISNA news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini as saying.
"Iran congratulates all the Lebanese groups, regional countries and the Arab League, and especially the Qatari government," he added.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran hopes that the Doha accord ... will provide a blossoming and brilliant future for the Lebanese and be the prelude to freeing the rest of Lebanese territory" from Israeli occupation, he added.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu al-Gheit, whose country backs the government, called for the deal to be faithfully implemented by all parties.
"The agreement ends a complicated crisis which could have destroyed Lebanon's stability had it not been for the wisdom of certain Lebanese politicians and the rapid Arab intervention," the official MENA news agency quoted him as saying.
"Egypt is particularly relieved ... about the agreement of all Lebanese groups to no longer resort to weapons to resolve conflicts or achieve political gains," Abu al-Gheit said.
Meanwhile, the United States welcomed the deal, but warned that the crisis in Beirut was not yet over.
"The United States welcomes the agreement reached by Lebanese leaders in Doha, Qatar," said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a statement, as she renewed support for the central government to extend its authority nationwide.
"We view this agreement as a positive step towards resolving the current crisis by electing a president, forming a new government, and addressing Lebanon's electoral law, consistent with the Arab League initiative," the statement said. In Washington, US Deputy Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch said the deal represented a "necessary and positive step" toward restoring functional government in Lebanon. But he admitted the Lebanese still have "very delicate political" issues to resolve.
"This is not the end of this crisis. Lebanon still has to go through implementing this agreement," Welch said. UN chief Ban Ki-moon hailed the landmark deal between Lebanon's feuding factions to end the political standoff and looks forward to the early election of a new president, his office said Wednesday. "The secretary general welcomes the important agreement reached in Doha today among Lebanon's political leaders," the office said in a statement.
"He hopes this agreement will be the prelude to a lasting period of national reconciliation, political stability, peace and progress for all of Lebanon's people and for the future of their country," it added.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy hailed the deal brokered in Qatar as a "great success" and joined Germany and Spain in calling for its swift implementation. "France, which has invested much effort in the search for a solution to the Lebanese crisis, never stopped backing the process that led to this agreement," Sarkozy said. "As a friend of Lebanon, in solidarity with all Lebanese, France stands more than ever by their side for the period that lies ahead. More than ever, it is committed to the unity, stability, sovereignty and independence of Lebanon."
Germany and Spain called for Suleiman's election as president to take place as soon as possible, followed swiftly by the formation of the unity government.
"Spain, which along with France and Italy, contributed to the mediation efforts, trusts that the Lebanese people will be able to take advantage of the opportunities opened up by this important agreement and by the peace prospects that are opening up in the Middle East," the Spanish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini welcomed the news and expressed his hope that the inter-Lebanese accord would be solidified through the immediate election of a president and the formation of a new cabinet. "We now expect the universal, unreserved commitment of all parties to the implementation of the agreement through the immediate election of [Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces] Michel Suleiman, and the formation of a new government that will have the specific duty of ensuring order, security and national reconstruction," he said. - AFP, with The Daily Star

Lebanon has given itself a chance to end a miserable, murderous cycle
By The Daily Star
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Editorial
For over 18 months, international efforts to find a solution to Lebanon's harrowing political crisis seemed a lot like searching for a needle in a haystack. Various teams of Arab and international mediators had tried to prod feuding Lebanese leaders toward compromise, but none of these efforts brought about concrete results. It was only after the crisis escalated to the verge of renewed civil war - and after Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani thankfully intervened - that the leaders of rival Lebanese factions managed to secure what once seemed like a permanently elusive deal.
The brilliance of the Doha accord is that it has resurrected the Lebanese agenda on Lebanese terrain. For far too long that agenda had been both strangled by local players and dictated to the Lebanese in the form of unrealistic demands from foreign capitals. But the Qatari emir successfully brokered an accord that makes Lebanon the priority, and resolves all outstanding political issues, while incorporating mechanisms for strengthening the Lebanese state. The responsibility for ensuring the full success of the Doha initiative now rests with Lebanese leaders - every one of them, from Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea.
Over the past few days we have witnessed the transformation of the sentiment on the streets from one of tribulation - when Lebanese leaders pushed this nation to the brink - to one of jubilation - when Lebanon's executioners were summoned away to the dialogue in Doha. The prevailing sense of joy has increased exponentially now that an agreement has been reached and the Lebanese can for the first time in over three years begin to envision new and boundless horizons for their homeland. The possibilities that the resolution of the political crisis allow for are infinite. One can easily imagine how it can pave the way toward economic development and political reform, as well as rapprochement with Damascus, and even an eventual peace deal with Israel if that country is willing to be reasonable (a possibility that is even easier to envision in light of the Turkish-brokered talks between Syria and Israel). The return of a Lebanese state that is at peace with its own citizens will also enable Lebanon to return to its role as an incubator of talent and creative energy that benefits, rather than destabilizes, the entire region.
This is not to suggest that the road ahead is not fraught with potential pitfalls. Indeed, the greatest of these is that Lebanon's leaders might be lulled into a false sense of security and fail to follow the path of Lebanon's revival to its inevitable destination: the creation a civil state. Now that we have all (again) seen that the current sectarian-state model serves to stimulate breakdown, failure to complete that journey would be tantamount to committing national suicide. Without a new system of governance, we would no doubt find ourselves back in the same miserable, murderous scenario.
One other potential snare that must be noted - and hopefully avoided - stems from the fact that the outcome of the Doha talks might not meet the unrealistic expectations of foreign parties. None of these has shown a greater propensity to disregard common sense than the administration of US President George W. Bush. The US president has been among the most vocal backers of the governing March 14 coalition, but it must be recalled that his friendship yielded few tangible results for the state of Lebanon. Given the United States' close relationship with Israel, Bush could have easily applied pressure on the Jewish state to desist from its relentless incursions into Lebanese territory, or to withdraw from the Shebaa Farms, for example. He could have also adopted a more reasonable policy toward Syria that would have served to safeguard what he misleadingly hailed as one of his own greatest regional achievements, as opposed to a feat achieved by the Lebanese: the "Cedar Revolution." But none of these gestures, which would have gone a long way toward stabilizing this country and strengthening the Lebanese state, ever materialized.
One would hope that the Americans, along with the Syrians, Iranians and other international actors in the Lebanese crisis, will understand that their time for meddling here has passed. The Lebanese are embarking on a new chapter in their history, one that will hopefully succeed in finally putting Lebanon first. The best thing that all of these foreign actors could do is to step aside, and perhaps even utter the word that was on the lips of millions of Lebanese when they relayed the news from Doha on Wednesday: mabrouk, or congratulations

Lebanon Gets A President
By Franklin Lamb
21 May, 2008
Countercurrents.org
"The agreement was not ideal for either party and I hope that it will serve as a launch pad for decent relations between the majority and the opposition. We will tackle the other issues in Beirut and there is no need to fear anything".
--- MP Michel Aoun, Hezbollah ally and leader of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) following this morning's Doha agreement
Tent City, Beirut: Lebanon will have General Michel Suleiman as its new President, possibly within hours. But no later than Sunday May 25, in order to allow time for the international community to send representatives.
Suleiman had appeared to be closer to the government coalition when he was first nominated but he was recently criticized as being too close to the opposition when his troops did not intervene when gun battles broke out between the warring sides this month.
Some say events make the man. Others the obverse. Suleiman could be a much needed, honest, strong, independent leader that will endear him to Lebanon and the Arab cause and Nation. This 'unity president' was finally confirmed after rival Lebanese political factions agreed, after talks in Doha, Qatar, in a deal to resolve the 18-month crisis that has kept the country without a president since November.
Under the country's sectarian democracy, the position of President is filled by a Christian Maronite. Suleiman will be Lebanon's 12th president since the country's independence in 1943 and the third after the Saudi-brokered Taif Accord that ended Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. General Suleiman, 59, has held his post as Army commander since 1998.
As of this afternoon, hundreds of people and shop-owners of downtown Beirut took to the streets of the city in jubilation over the agreement. Foreigners living in Lebanon cannot help but share their joy and being filled with a sense of 'These gifted and long-suffering people deserve some peace' -- enshallah it will last.
Some of the residents of Beirut's Tent City are posing for photos this morning; others are packing up their belongings and taking down their tents following the Doha Agreement that was reached in the early hours of May 21. It buys some time for Lebanon to sort out its politics. One young Swiss couple is haggling with a fellow from Lebanon's Communist Party (what's left of it) trying to buy a tent for their trek around Lebanon.
Hezbollah has informed the head of Beirut's municipality and its Mayor that it will help rehabilitate downtown Beirut and will pay for any damage incurred to stores that happened during the nearly 18 months stay of the Tent City.
The Accord has been well received internationally so far, with Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran and France expressing satisfaction, even though each side gave a qualified endorsement of the Doha results depending on their party's stance. The Bush administration is reported to believe that what was agreed upon at Doha was probably the best they could get at the last minute when delegates were packing to leave Doha without any agreement. Time will tell.
The dismantling of the Hezbollah-erected 'tent city' in posh Rafiq Hariri-built downtown Beirut cannot happen fast enough for those whose businesses have suffered, been forced to move, or have been lost due to the 18-month pro-opposition civil disobedience occupation. There is hope that some of the millions of dollars lost during the 18 month occupation can be recouped if the coming tourist season brings in around one million visitors.
Relief is in the air.
The mental and physical fatigue of many Lebanese from the constant tension, political bickering and occasional deadly violence in their country has been summed up by demonstrations held along the road leading to Beirut's international airport by non-governmental organizations. "Agree, or shame on you," read another message to Lebanon's representatives, while another said, "We want to raise our children in Lebanon!"
Across Lebanon a collective sigh of relief is palpable and almost audible as the civic organization Khalass! (Enough!) removes their signs from the airport road. Yesterday, several dozen citizens whom were injured and left handicapped from the 1975-90 Civil War held up signs telling their leaders to end the political paralysis in Lebanon or not to return. "If you don't reach agreement, don't come back!", some of the signs read.
During the last hours of May 20 there was gloom at the Doha Conference Center where Lebanon's political parties were gathered and the usual political bickering continued. Opposition Member Michel Aoun accused pro-Siniora government March14 leader Saad Hariri of seeking to establish Beirut as a 'Hariri' city, not a capital for all Lebanon. "This is the main point we disagree on," he said.
"The agreement was not ideal for either party and I hope that it will serve as a launch pad for decent relations between the majority and the opposition. We will tackle the other issues in Beirut and there is no need to fear anything", Aoun has said today.
Meanwhile Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea repeated his recent favorite phase that "They [Hezbollah] will not get at Doha what they did not get with their weapons", and that the Doha talks were "staggering" due to Hezbollah demands. Geagea renewed his call yesterday for "an Arab Deterrent Force" to bring stability to Lebanon. When a journalist asked Geagea did he mean like the last Arab Deterrent Force that came in 1976 and stayed for 29 years (i.e. Syria) Geagea just glared at the impertinent young lady from Greece while others smiled and giggled.
So it is thus that after five days, at close to 3 a.m. on May 21, Lebanon's political factions have in fact agreed to an arrangement which will allow for General Michel Suleiman to be elected Lebanon's President, and a unity government to be formed.
The recent stumbling block was the new election law. The Hezbollah-led Opposition still wants as close to a one person-one vote system as they can get. They would also like the voting age lowered to 18 years which would benefit them among the younger, politically active Lebanese. They did not get either in Doha but with an expanded government to be set up within days discussions can begin anew.
With regard to the critical 'deal breaker' issue of Hezbollah's weapons, this was kept off the table and finessed in Doha and the new government will debate and decide how Lebanon will view and deal with it. Hezbollah feels protected for now since it effectively achieved at Doha the veto over government Cabinet decisions. It had sought this since the end of the July 2006 war.
Pending the 2009 Parliamentary elections, the 'unity government' is to be as follows:
The US-, Israel-, Saudi-backed majority gets 16 of the 30 Cabinet seats. The Iran- and Syria-favored Opposition led by Hezbollah and which includes the largest Christian party, the Michel Aoun-led FPM gets 13 Cabinet posts and the remaining 3 will be chosen by President Suleiman.
Some observers, including this one, thinks that next year's election with likely double Hezbollah's current number of Parliamentary seats of 14, which could go as high at forty or more. Michel Aoun's FPM also stands to double the number of its Deputies. If this happens there would be ample votes for the Opposition (which could become the new Majority following the 2009 balloting) to protect the weapons of the Resistance, still a key point of contention between the US-Israel-Saudi backed Majority Government and the Iranian-Syrian favored Opposition. For now the Government will address the issue of not using weapons to achieve political gains and focus on the commitment to the decisions reached during the 2006 dialogue. This should work for the time being.
Also agreed upon at Doha is the adoption of the Qada (Lebanese administrative District)-based 1960 electoral law with Beirut divided into three constituencies:
* The first electoral district comprises Ashrafiye, Rmeil and Saifi with five seats: Two Armenians, one Maronite, one Orthodox and one Catholic;
* The second electoral district comprising Bashoura, Medawwar and Marfa' with four seats: One Sunni, one Shiite and two Armenians;
* The third electoral district comprising Mazraa, Msaytbe, Ras Beirut, Mina el Hosn, Zaqa el Blat and Dar el Mrayseh with ten seats: Five Sunnis, one Shiite, one Druze, one Orthodox, one Evangelical and one for the minorities.
This arrangement is actually pretty fair to both sides for now given the current circumstances and the fact that there has been no census since 1932. Saad Hariri got most of what the Future Movement wanted in order to preserve his electoral base in West Beirut.
Soon all eyes will be on the coming election which may be the most important since Lebanon achieved its independent from France in 1943.
Washington, Tel Aviv, Tehran, Damascus and Riyadh will have their favorite candidates and will, no doubt, be watching closely.
Franklin Lamb can be reached at fplamb@gmail.com

Relief and disbelief as sit-in comes to end
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Rima Abushakra-Agence France Presse
BEIRUT: Supporters of the Hizbullah-led opposition began dismantling a protest camp outside in Dowtown Beirut on Wednesday after a deal was reached to end the country's political crisis. Onlookers applauded as opposition members began gathering some belongings and throwing others into rubbish bins, nearly 18 months after setting up the tent city in a bid to force the Western-backed government to share more power or resign.
"I have been here for one year and 177 days," said Ali Hammoud, 21, a member of the Amal movement. "We were just waiting today for the order to clear. I was paid LL10,000 a day to stay in a tent and I could eat, sleep and drink for free."
Speaker and opposition stalwart Nabih Berri announced an immediate lifting of the sit-in following the Arab-brokered deal between rival factions in Doha.
The protest began on December 1, 2006 when the opposition set up a sprawling tent city on streets leading to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's offices.
It transformed a large swathe of the city center into a ghost town, forcing dozens businesses to shut down.
While young men tore down blue sheets of tarpaulin and dismantled the tents, employees in a nearby restaurant that had been forced shut since December 2006 were getting ready to return to work. "We are planning to re-open tonight," one of them said as other employees washed windows in preparation.
Cleaning crews from the government-contracted private firm Sukleen descended on Downtown Beirut in their distinctive green trucks to help the protesters get rid of mattresses, plywood and other items. Motorists along the Fouad Chehab overpass, which overlooks the area, honked their horns as they drove by. Passersby and soldiers alike looked down in both relief and disbelief. Some were tearful, whole others hugged.
"Finally there is hope. It seems our political leaders woke up and felt a real sense of responsibility toward the people. Finally there is hope," said Elias Rashed, in his 50s. Sanaa Osman, an employee of the Solidere real estate firm that rebuilt the devastated city center after the 1975-1990 Civil War, sighed with relief. "I simply cannot believe it. I feel at peace with myself," she said.
Before "it was just us and the cats. Now look, the people are coming back," she added, standing in front of her nearby office. Employees in the offices buildings overlooking the tent camp watched from windows or balconies. Some clapped to express their pleasure. Dozens more began milling in the area to watch life return to Downtown Beirut. "We came here to see our country. It seems it's coming back" to life, said a Lebanese man who lives in Belgium.
Minutes before the orders came to uproot the camp, opposition supporters were inside their tents glued to small television sets which broadcast live from the Qatari capital the historic agreement between feuding politicians. In one tent two young male supporters of opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun hugged as the news was broken. At least five Hizbullah MPs toured the area. Fadi Harb, an employee at a cell phone shop, looked on with a smile: "This agreement means calm, peace, security, stability and the future

Ban Welcomes the Important Doha Accord
U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon hailed the landmark deal between Lebanon's feuding factions to end an 18-month political standoff and looks forward to the early election of a new president, his office said Wednesday. "The secretary general welcomes the important agreement reached in Doha today among Lebanon's political leaders," the office said in a statement. "He hopes this agreement will be the prelude to a lasting period of national reconciliation, political stability, peace and progress for all of Lebanon's people and for the future of their country," it added. Ban also looked forward to "the early election of the new Lebanese President and to the formation of a National Unity Government."The Doha agreement, announced after days of tense talks, is expected to see the election of a president for Lebanon on Sunday and the creation of a unity government.(AFP) Beirut, 21 May 08, 20:01

Hizbollah and Lebanon: the curse of a state , Robert G Rabil
Lebanon’s deep political-military crisis is also that of the Islamist movement that appears to have won the latest round. By Robert G Rabil.
The military campaign launched in May 2008 by the Shi’a Islamist party Hizbollah to control Beirut has raised fundamental questions about the very existence of Lebanon as a nation-state. But the ten days of armed confrontation that followed, which took the lives of more than sixty people, have also shed new light on the myths surrounding Hizbollah itself (not least its status as a "resistance" movement).
The Qatar-mediated pact between government and opposition sealed on 21 May 2008 after five days of talks - which gives the opposition veto-power over the proposed national-unity government, agrees changes in Lebanon’s electoral law, and opens the way to the election of a new president - may have concluded the current phase of conflict. But a sustainable political path forward for Lebanon will require much more if the bleak events of these weeks are not to be the precedent of an even larger conflagration in the future.
A house divided
The withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005 brought to the fore the deep sectarian and ideological schisms among and between the different confessional groups in the country. In fact, even before the withdrawal, the country split roughly along two camps, one supporting the rule of law and an ideological proximity with the west and some moderate Arab states, while the other supporting a change in the political structure and an Islamist, pro-Iranian ideological orientation. This split has further deepened on account of the struggle between Washington on one side, and Tehran and Damascus on the other, for a new regional order following the removal of the Iraqi Ba’ath regime.
The first camp, represented by the so-called 14 March forces, includes a majority of Christians, Sunni and Druze. It played a key role in forcing Syria from Lebanon; in setting up an international tribunal to investigate the murder of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri on 14 February 2005, followed by that of other political activists (allegedly by Syrian intelligence and their agents in Lebanon); and in supporting United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1559, which called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the disarming of Hizbollah.
Simultaneously, the pro-14 March government of Fouad Siniora has attempted to remove the last vestiges of Syrian power in Lebanon, which lay within the formal and informal public sectors. Throughout the years of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, Damascus filled the organs of the formal public sector with its own loyalists. No less significant, Damascus played a supporting role in creating an informal public sector which has outstripped the state as a patronage system and a military force. Thanks to unremittingly Iranian support, The Shi’a Islamist party Hizbollah was able to build a state within a state.
The Hizbollah-led opposition, which includes pro-Syrian groups and the secular Bloc of Reform and Change led by Michel Aoun, has attempted to prevent the Siniora government from taking unilateral political actions or any action deemed detrimental to the interest of the party and the "resistance". More specifically, the party has been careful about protecting its socio-political and military infrastructure. Initially, Hizbollah opposed the international tribunal on the grounds that it was instigated by Israel’s patron and ally, the United States. Moreover, it prevented the government from appointing anti-Syrian officials to sensitive posts.
Meanwhile, Damascus continued to supply Hizbollah and other pro-Syrian Palestinian groups with weapons. It is in this context that the summer 2006 war erupted between Hizbollah and Israel. The hostilities ended on the basis of a seven-point plan introduced by Siniora and according to UNSC Resolution 1701, which increased the number of United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) troops in southern Lebanon and called for the dismantling and disarming of all militias. Despite the destruction wrought upon both Lebanese infrastructure and Hizbollah’s members, the group’s secretary-general leader Hassan Nasrallah declared a "divine" victory. Iran and Syria rode Hizbollah’s wave of Pyrrhic victory.
As a result, whatever semblance of national unity Lebanon had exhibited during the summer crisis dissipated. Recriminations and counter-recriminations became a staple of Lebanese politics. The struggle for controlling the state has moved to the heart of this charged political climate. The government and its allies have attempted to implement UN Security Council resolutions and to elect a president who is not pro-Syrian. On the other hand, at a minimum, Hizbollah has sought veto power over government decisions under the pretext of national unity; at a maximum, Hizbollah has sought to change the political structure in Lebanon so as to make it commensurate with Shi’a plurality.
Before long, the pro-opposition Shi’a ministers resigned from the cabinet in the belief that the government would no longer be legitimate without the representation of the Shi’a community. However, the government did not resign. Rather, a wave of assassination of anti-Syrian figures, including in November 2006 that of minister Pierre Gemayel - the son of former president and head of the Phalange party Amin Gemayel - emboldened the government to officially ask the United Nations to proceed with the international tribunal.
The opposition called for a national-unity government and threatened to take the streets. Hassan Nasrallah, rebuffed by the government, called for a sit-in before the Grand Serail, the premier’s official residence in downtown Beirut. This sharpened the struggle for Lebanon and the battle of wills between Nasrallah and Aoun on one side, and Siniora and Saad Hariri (the head of the largest parliamentary bloc, and Rafiq al-Hariri’s son), on the other.
A state of insecurity
In January 2007, the Hizbollah-led opposition attempted to take over the state by forcing the resignation of the government. It blockaded most major routes to and from the capital. However, Siniora remained steadfast in his Grand Serail. But behind the façade of steadfastness, cracks in the wall of solidarity of the 14 March forces began to appear. The government and its allies, driven by regional/international and confessional considerations, have gradually lost leverage over the presidential elections, which were supposed to be held in November 2007; frequently scheduled and then postponed rounds of parliamentary voting have reduced the elections to near-farce.
Meanwhile, concerns about a civil war (which could spill over into regional strife between Shi’a and Sunni) mounted, as did worries about the political influence of the key figures in the 14 March forces (i.e. Saad Hariri and the main Druze leader Walid Jumblatt). These led the government and its allies to forego the constitutional formula of electing a president with a simple 50%-plus-one parliamentary majority (something that would neutralise Hizbollah and Syria) and instead support a compromise candidate.
A consensual presidential candidate, in the person of the commander of the Lebanese army Michel Suleiman, has been agreed upon by the two camps. But the Hizbollah-led opposition has exploited this shift by introducing several proposals revolving around what the movement has termed the "basket of conciliatory demands". These demands, shared by the opposition if aired in slightly different versions by Michel Aoun and speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, were at their core the acquisition of veto power in a national-unity government; the establishment of a new electoral law based on the Qada’ (district); and the election of Michel Suleiman as president. The government and its allies rejected the opposition’s multilateral proposal.
At the same time, Damascus and Tehran have been transporting weapons to Hizbollah and replenishing its arsenal - in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. In addition, a report by the fact-finding mission of the International Lebanese Committee (ILC) for UNSCR 1559 - which has consultative status with the UN - revealed that Syria still occupies approximately 458 square kilometers of Lebanese territory in different areas adjacent to the border, and that it has changed the topography of the land so as to facilitate smuggling of weapons into Lebanon. The Syrian regime, far from withdrawing from Lebanon (even technically) has created new "facts on the ground" which mock the international system in their violation of a slew of United Nations Security Council resolutions - especially Resolution 1680 (May 2006) and Resolution 1559 (September 2004).
No less significant, Lebanese authorities have moved to confront radical Islamist movements, perceived by the government as Syrian proxies. A new jihadist organisation called Fatah al-Islam became the focal-point of an uprising in the Palestinian Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in May-June 2007. Simultaneously, the government has deepened its investigation into the assassination in Lebanon of anti-Syrian figures and representatives of political movements. These efforts undoubtedly unnerved Damascus and its allies. It is no coincidence that senior intelligence and army officers have become targets of assassination, a new trend given that these earlier murders involved political figures and activists critical of Syria.
The departure from the pattern established in February 2005 by Rafiq al-Hariri’s killing is exemplified by the car-bomb assassination of the army’s chief of operations, Brigadier Francois Haj, in east Beirut in December 2007. The same month, Samir Shehadeh - the head of an intelligence unit closely involved in the UN-led investigation - was wounded by a roadside bomb south of Beirut. He was replaced by Wissam Eid, who was killed in January 2008.
Against this violent and insecure background, Lebanon has plunged deeper into a political vacuum and sociopolitical flux. A president is yet to be elected even though the term of Emile Lahoud ended in November 2007. A significant and worrying factor is that the contending parties have engaged in an escalatory discourse of "treason", which itself further intensifies political polarisation.
A declaration of war
The immediate spark of civil strife, however, came in the form of two decisions taken by the government on 5 May 2008: to remove airport security chief Brigadier-General Wafiq Shuqeir over his alleged links to Hizbollah; and to consider a private-communications network set up by Hizbollah illegal and unconstitutional, something which amounted to criminalising the Islamist party and exposing its senior cadres.
Nasrallah immediately responded by describing the government’s decisions a "declaration of war" and asserting his readiness to use force to protect the "weapons" of Hizbollah. He followed by ordering a swift military onslaught on west Beirut. The pro-government groups were no match for Hizbollah’s well equipped and trained fighters. Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt were put virtually under house-arrest. Hariri’s television station and al-Mustaqbal newspaper headquarters were respectively taken off the air and destroyed. The fighting then expanded to some Druze areas in the Chouf and Mount Lebanon and to the northern city of Tripoli. Hizbollah, though sustaining a number of casualties, cleqrly asserted its military prowess. The veteran Druze leader Walid Jumblatt called on his supporters to lay down their arms in Mount Lebanon, while dignitaries in Tripoli succeeded in reaching a ceasefire.
An Arab diplomatic delegation led by the foreign minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, travelled to Beirut and held intensive meetings with Lebanese leaders to defuse the crisis. An agreement was reached between the two camps, and late in the evening of 15 May the government reversed its two decisions in "the view of the higher national interests". Consequently, the fighting ended.
The agreement brokered by the Arab delegation was reached after acceptance of the following points:
* the formation of a national-unity government
* the drafting of a new electoral law
* once these two items are met, the ending of the sit-in in downtown Beirut - to be followed the next day by the election of Michel Suleiman as president. At the same time, a national dialogue would be launched in Doha, Qatar (which at its conclusion on 21 May 2008 confirms that the presidential election will indeed take place, on 25 May).
The implications of what has happened for the future of Lebanon cannot be overemphasised. No doubt, Hizbollah has scored a political victory - now embodied in the document signed in Qatar which ends the immediate crisis - by the sheer virtue of the fact that the government reversed its decisions. But a closer look at the dynamics of these cataclysmic events show that this victory is ephemeral and could signal two momentous results: the beginning of the end of Hizbollah as a model "resistance" movement in the Muslim world, and the end of Lebanon’s political system as a confessional nation-state.
A Lebanese vacuum
The logic of this conclusion is related to the fact and the timing of the Lebanese government’s important decisions in these two matters. It is no secret to all political leaders that Hizbollah has maintained a communications network as part of its security apparatus. Moreover, the government, despite its efforts to reinforce its own security and military apparatus, has not shut down the military-operations room jointly operated by the Lebanese army and Hizbollah. Notwithstanding the shipment of arms to Hizbollah from both Iran and Syria, Hizbollah’s penetration of the public sector has not (as many argued it would) been severely affected by the withdrawal of Syrian troops. Besides the frustration gripping both camps, the government took this fateful decision because it could no longer ignore the reality that Hizbollah has been expanding its own state at the expense of the Lebanese state.
True, the decision to deem Hizbollah’s communications network illegal was about the potential of the Islamist party to compete with the state over revenues from private cellular lines as much as about security considerations. The Islamist party has contracted the private Wimax cellphone company to extend more than 100,000 cell-lines throughout Lebanon; this effectively threatens the ability of the government, which receives approximately one-third of its revenues from cellphone taxes, to collect tax revenues.
To many Lebanese, this network confirmed beyond doubt Hizbollah’s objective of strengthening and expanding its "state within the Lebanese state" to the point of making it a façade of legitimacy for its existence as an Iranian satellite. The Islamist party has now used its weapons against Lebanese groups, thus debunking its own self-myth as a resistance movement beyond the pale of Lebanon’s Byzantine politics. No less important - and against the view of many pundits who have proclaimed Hizbollah’s "victory" and capacity to impose its will on Lebanon - the fighting has exposed the party’s limitations.
Hizbollah’s advance into the Chouf and Mount Lebanon was checked by Jumblatt’s supporters who raced to defend their towns. Jumblatt’s decision to call on his followers to lay down their arms may have arisen from his recognition that his fighters did not have enough ammunition to outlast Hizbollah’s attack, but it also reflected his concern to prevent intercommunal infighting. In much the same vein, Hizbollah’s advance in Tripoli was swiftly checked by the creation of an all-encompassing bloc of the city’s major movements committed to securing the area. While Christian areas themselves remained largely free from fighting, hundreds of armed Christians staked out defensive positions along the approaches of east Beirut. In addition, and notwithstanding the grumbling among some allies of Hizbollah, the party received sharp criticism from the spiritual leaders of both the Sunni and Druze communities.
Hizbollah’s admission after these events of the need (expressed by its deputy secretary-general) to return "to doing politics openly, without preconditions" is a recognition of both the movement’s newly revealed limitations and the prohibitive price of seizing power in Lebanon in the manner of Hamas in Gaza. Now, even after the Qatar-brokered agreement of 21 May 2008, Hizbollah’s weapons can no longer but be a key item on the table of national dialogue. After all, the natrure of the deal means that the14 March forces and Arab states have - notwithstanding their uplifting statements
indirectly legitimised Hizbollah’s state within the Lebanese state. This has created a scenario reminiscent of the Cairo agreement of 1969, when the Arab states helped create another state within the Lebanese state - at that time a Palestinian one.
The crisis has perilously widened the rift among Lebanon’s main groups. It has created a desperate and abnormal situation where the price of salvaging Lebanon has become inhibitive and the price of co-existing with Hizbollah has become prohibitive. This is the true curse of a nation.
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Iran’s foreign legion wins political victory

By: W. Thomas Smith Jr.
21 May 2008
Hezbollah — Iran’s foreign legion in Lebanon — won a major political victory today.
During “crisis talks” in Qatar among members of the Arab League, it was agreed that Hezbollah (which tries to portray itself as a legitimate Lebanese political party, but in reality is something along the lines of a Talibanesque terrorist army — supported by Iran and Syria — with a dangerous political wing, and cells of its military and media-propaganda wings operating worldwide) would be granted additional cabinet seats plus veto power in all decisions made by the Lebanese government.
How did Hezbollah achieve this? By attacking Lebanese civilians, killing people and destroying property in an armed offensive launched against the Lebanese state after the government tried — unsuccessfully I might add — to both fire a senior airport security officer (who was Hezbollah) and dismantle Hezbollah’s unauthorized telecommunications system (Walid Phares details the extent of that system and its sinister application at World Defense Review.).
I wrote about this disturbing turn of events this morning at Townhall.com (see also yesterday’s piece at Human Events).
What’s next? As I explain in both pieces, at least a couple hundred (present numbers are sketchy) members of Lebanon’s pro-democracy majority have formed — and are forming — resistance groups. These groups, the largest of which according to my sources is forming in Beirut, will have as their goal: “resistance” against Hezbollah.
Where will it all lead? It’s anybody’s guess at this point. But one thing is certain: Hezbollah has enjoyed two major victories in less than one week: One was a strategic pseudo-military victory in which the legitimate Lebanese government reversed its orders against the firing of the airport security officer as well as the plan to dismantle the telecommunications system. Hezbollah’s second victory was the political one, today, wherein the terrorist group won new cabinet seats in the Lebanese government and veto powers. This also means Iran and Syria have the power to veto any decision made by the Lebanese government.
Lebanon's pro-democracy movement has clearly had it with weak national leadership, toothless UN forces, and hyper-aggressive militancy.
The other certainty is that Hezbollah has clearly demonstrated that if cannot have its way through peaceful means, it will make its way via the blood of innocent men, women, and children.
Nothing new there, though.
— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr. at uswriter.com.

Editorial: Exceptional Deal
22 May 2008 -Arab News
The Lebanon peace deal signed yesterday in Qatar is indeed, as Lebanese Premier Fouad Siniora said, “an exceptional agreement for an exceptional time.” His country had come once again to the brink of civil war which, as the previous 15 years of bloody conflict demonstrated, benefited no one except the gravediggers and the Israelis. But now the high hopes expressed in Doha need to be turned into reality. The deal creates a new government of national unity in which the Hezbollah-led former opposition has 11 seats against the 16 seats of the ruling majority led by Siniora. A further three Cabinet positions will go to nominees of the new president — when he is elected by Parliament. This will hopefully be on Sunday when army chief Gen. Michel Suleiman will be chosen. Lebanon has been without a president since last November.
The key concession has been made to Hezbollah, who, despite their minority position in the government, will have a right of veto. The agreement also provides for electoral changes that may well benefit Hezbollah and its allies in next year’s elections. At the same time Hezbollah has now agreed that the use of weapons in internal conflicts will be banned. This is a long way from the disarming of the militants which the outgoing government had demanded but recognizes the fact that Hezbollah, rather than the Lebanese Army, defeated the July 2006 Israeli invasion.
On the face of it, as the commentators are saying, this is a sweeping political victory for Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s Hezbollah and its allies. In temporarily taking over large areas of western Beirut and part of the mountainous Druze region earlier this month, Hezbollah demonstrated that they are currently the most significant armed force in the country. However, Nasrallah must know that if he had maintained his aggressive military posture, it would only have been a question of time before his opponents would have themselves re-armed and challenged him.
Therefore though this peace deal may have come out of the barrel of a gun, it remains a political deal. Hezbollah is rejoining Lebanon’s government and, in so doing, is signaling its commitment to advance its political platform by peaceful means. Given the proven futility of civil conflict in Lebanon, this is only common sense. It remains to be seen how Nasrallah will use his political power base. He may with justice demand greater economic benefits for his largely Shiites supporters who constitute the poorest and most disadvantaged of Lebanese. The country still has major reconstruction needs, not just from 15 years of civil war but also from the gratuitous destruction of important infrastructure during Israel’s failed 2006 invasion. Nasrallah will demand that priority be given to this work in his southern power-base. But Hezbollah’s preferred foreign policy will be the challenge. It is now part of a Lebanese unity government but Washington avers Nasrallah is a cat’s-paw for Syria and Iran. The Hezbollah leader now has the chance to demonstrate that his loyalty is first and foremost to his country and not to someone else’s.

The power of Hezbollah
Los Angeles Times

Though a political deal in Lebanon may avert civil war, it codifies the group's growing clout.
May 22, 2008
Lebanon's factions appear to have halted a nascent civil war -- at least temporarily -- with an agreement struck Wednesday in Qatar between the Western-backed government of Fouad Siniora and the Syrian-backed Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah. But the peace deal cannot fairly be called a compromise. Hezbollah won That's the result of its stunning military victory earlier this month after the Lebanese army remained neutral as Hezbollah forces seized West Beirut and critical roads leading to Damascus. Siniora's government was forced to make serious military concessions to Hezbollah and to enter into talks brokered by Qatar, which has close ties to Syria.
Depending on one's ideology, the deal reflects a necessary acceptance of political and military reality, or it is a sickening defeat for the secular, democratic movement that began March 14, 2005, and ultimately kicked the Syrians out of Lebanon. Either way, it's a blow to the U.S., which has hailed the Cedar Revolution as a triumph of democracy and sent significant military aid to Lebanon in the hopes of preventing a Syrian comeback. Now it sees Hezbollah, a terrorist group that is in some ways more frightening than Al Qaeda, triumphing in Lebanon less than a year after Hamas took over Gaza.
In some ways, this outcome was inevitable. The Shiites had long been punching below their weight in Lebanese politics because of the inability of their spiritual leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, to translate his immense popularity and military strength into political power. Now he has. The deal gives Hezbollah veto power in the Cabinet in exchange for a pledge not to use its weapons to settle political disputes. Needless to say, it does not require Hezbollah to disarm, as a U.N. resolution toothlessly demanded.
However, by turning his guns on his own countrymen, something he said he would never do, Nasrallah has squandered much of the credibility he had earned among many Lebanese as the nation's premier resistance fighter against Israel. And therein lies hope that Nasrallah's command of the Lebanese Shiites could one day be challenged. Hezbollah would have had far more power in Lebanon by now if it had begun building its stake in the government years ago. Instead, it boycotted the Cabinet, held the parliament hostage, prevented the election of a new president and killed scores of people to demonstrate its military power. Now that it has gained the political leverage it longed for, will it use its clout to help unite and rebuild Lebanon?
Don't bet on it. Damascus and Tehran are likely to call the important shots, while Washington is left to ponder the meaning of yet another rout of one of its best Middle East allies by a popular but violent Islamist movement.

History in the making for Hezbollah
By Sami Moubayed

Asia Times Online 22/05/08
DAMASCUS - British statesman Sir Winston Churchill once said, "History will be kind to me for I intend to write it." On another occasion, he said, "Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed."
These two quotes came to my mind, as I imagined Hasan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, seated somewhere in Beirut, watching his allies and opponents hammer out a deal in Doha - to his favor - on Wednesday.
He must have been a very happy man because all of the Doha
resolutions were almost tailor-made to Nasrallah's liking. Nasrallah finally got what he had been asking for, mainly a greater say for the opposition in the Lebanese government, and the ability to veto any resolution that runs against the interests of Hezbollah.
True, no early parliamentary elections are going to happen (as Hezbollah had requested) to oust the parliamentary majority of Saad al-Hariri, but the entire issue of Hezbollah and its arms was glossed over at the Doha meeting.
A fighter who often said that he seeks martyrdom in his war with Israel, Nasrallah, like Churchill, would certainly prefer that it be postponed. He needs time to enjoy the fruits of victory taken by Hezbollah in Qatar. He might be idolized by millions of Arabs, seen as a war hero and a charismatic, honest and inspiring leader. He might be hated beyond imagination by his opponents, seen as a terrorist and an Iranian stooge. But setting emotions aside - they don't really count in politics - the man has in every sense of the word proven his intention, and succeeded, in writing history; his way.
When Israel withdrew from South Lebanon in 2000, his opponents argued Nasrallah was finished. The young leader had legitimized himself for nearly 10 years as a freedom fighter, someone who was needed to combat the Israeli occupation. Now that Lebanon was free, theoretically, what was the use for Nasrallah or the arms of Hezbollah? He could not continue to hold arms, fight the Israelis, and appeal to his constituency now that the Israelis had left Lebanon.
Yet, he survived. When Syrian president Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000, the same argument resurfaced, saying that an emerging Syria might be unable to fulfill its promises to Hezbollah. He also survived. In 2004, the United Nations passed Resolution 1559, calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah. One year later, voices echoed throughout the international community, calling on Nasrallah to lay down his arms.
The young Lebanese leader, people reckoned, would be unable to stand up to the United States, France and the UN. Four years down the road, Resolution 1559 is history when it comes to implementing the part about the arms of Hezbollah. The same fire was used against him in 2005, when former premier Rafik al-Hariri was killed and then again in 2006, when Israel launched its major war on Lebanon, with the intention of crushing Hezbollah. The war ended, and Resolution 1701 was passed, pushing Hezbollah away from its battlefield on the Israeli border. Even then, Nasrallah survived.
Eighteen months ago, Nasrallah ordered his supporters into downtown Beirut, in an open-ended demonstration aimed at bringing down the cabinet of the Saudi-backed Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora. The Hezbollah leader had engaged in a war of words with the pro-Western Lebanese government of Beirut, accusing them of conspiring with the Americans and the Israelis, during the summer war of 2006.
Among other things he blamed them for Resolution 1559, and said that they had called on Israel to extend its war, so that it could rid them of Hezbollah. Later in November 2006, the Shi'ite ministers representing Hezbollah and its sister party Amal, resigned from the Siniora cabinet. Nasrallah argued that this cabinet was unconstitutional because the Shi'ites were no longer in it.
The Saudi and American backed March 14 Coalition, however, refused to bend under pressure and held on to Siniora. This was a proxy war between the US and Saudi Arabia on one side, and Iran and Syria on the other. The Americans would simply not let Iran get the upper hand. Observers claimed that this time, Nasrallah had bit off more than he could chew.
Eighteen months passed, and no solution came about. Nasrallah still refused to back down - insisting that Siniora was no longer the prime minister of Lebanon - and blocked any negotiations regarding the arms of Hezbollah. The party would only disarm, he argued, once the Israeli-occupied Sheeba Farms were liberated.
Last week the confrontation turned violent, as armed Hezbollah fighters clashed with those funded by and loyal to parliamentary majority leader Hariri. The violence erupted after the Lebanese government tried to dismantle Hezbollah's security network, claiming that it was illegal, and dismissed the commander of security at Beirut airport, who is loyal to Hezbollah. This was an attack on the arms of Hezbollah, Nasrallah claimed, adding that in resistance, communication and security systems are no less valuable than bombs and missiles. "We will cut the arm of whomever tries to disarm Hezbollah," were the words of an angry Nasrallah. "Arms will be used to protect arms," he added, discarding an earlier promise he had made never to use Hezbollah weapons internally.
His men took their queue from there, stormed entire neighborhoods loyal to Hariri, and disarmed the Hariri bloc. Once in full control (within the short period of six hours) they called on the Lebanese Army to march in and take over. The Hariri-led March 14 Coalition cried foul play, and so did Saudi Arabia, claiming that Hezbollah had launched a coup and occupied Beirut. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal drew parallels between Israel's invasion of the Lebanese capital in 1982 and the 2008 offensive of Hezbollah, claiming that Nasrallah was another Ariel Sharon.
Everybody thought that by using his arms internally, Nasrallah had fired his last bullet. Some wrote of an upcoming civil war between Sunnis and Shi'ites. Others speculated that it would be now easier for the international community and the Lebanese state to push through with an argument against Hezbollah arms, now that they had been used internally. This was the mistake of a lifetime, many said, for Nasrallah.
Under heavy lobbying from the Arab League, the US, France and Gulf heavyweights like Qatar, all parties boarded a plane and headed to Doha, leaving behind 82 dead civilians in Beirut. Residents of the Lebanese capital saw them off with big signs saying, "If you don't agree, don't come back."
The attendees of the Doha Conference included Christian leader Michel Aoun and parliament speaker Nabih Berri (two allies of Hezbollah), pro-US figures like Samir Gagegea and Walid Jumblatt, independents like the veteran journalist and member of parliament Ghassan Tweini, along with Hariri, and Siniora.
The only missing participant was Nasrallah, who could not make the trip to Qatar, for security reasons. For five days the assembled leaders met under Qatari auspices (at one point supervised directly by Sheikh Hamad, the emir of Qatar). They consulted around the clock with the Americans, the French, the Saudis, the Syrians and the Iranians. They finally came out with an agreement on May 21 that seemed to make everybody happy.
The Doha agreement states that:
1. All parties involved will meet by Sunday to elect a president for Lebanon. The presidential seat has been vacant since November 2007 and although all parties agreed on bringing current army commander Michel Suleiman to office, nobody seemed to know how to do that through parliament. General Suleiman, coined pro-Syrian and pro-Hezbollah, was never a favorite for March 14, nor for ex-army commander Michel Aoun, who also, had his eyes set on the vacant seat at Baabda Palace.
Last November 2007, Aoun was talked into a compromise; if he could not make it as king, then he would have to settle for the status of kingmaker. The Syrians backed Suleiman's election, since they were always suspicious of Aoun, who had been anti-Syrian during his long exile in Paris, during the heyday of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon.
2. A new 30-man cabinet will be created within the next week by someone from the March 14 Coalition. No early parliamentary elections will take place, and the Hariri bloc will continue to dominate parliament until 2009. Meaning they remain in control of the post of prime minister. Siniora, who described the deal as a "great achievement in the history of the Arab nation", will step down and be replaced by one of two options, either Hariri himself, or the pro-Hariri member of parliament Mohammad al-Safadi.
But the new cabinet will have 16 seats for the Hariri majority, 11 for the Hezbollah-led opposition, and three seats to be appointed by the president. Since Suleiman is on good terms with Hezbollah, this means that the three seats appointed by him, will more or less, be allied to the 11 held by the Hezbollah-led opposition. That brings the total number of seats of the anti-Hariri team to 14. They can have veto power over any legislation passed by the Hariri team.
This will be used if the Hariri team tries to pass any decrees related to the International Tribunal, passed under Chapter Seven of the UN charter, related to the murder of Rafik Hariri. This new cabinet will place an immediate problem for the US, which supported Siniora and will extend unconditional support for whomever the new March 14 prime minister will be.
But how will they deal with 11 ministers in the new government, who are loyal to or members of Hezbollah? Will they ignore them - acting as if they do not exist - as they did with Hamas in Palestine? Or will they swallow their big words and see them as a stabilizing factor, as they did with the Sadrists who were cabinet ministers under Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq.
3. All parties pledge not to resign from the government or hinder its work. This was made to secure that Hezbollah will not walk out on the government, as it did with Siniora in November 2006.
4. Lebanon will adopt a 1960 electoral law for the parliamentary elections of 2009, with amendments in the Beirut district.
5. All parties pledge to refrain from using arms in order to resolve political conflict.
6. Security remains strictly monopolized by the state, and there can be no state-within-a state in Lebanon.
7. To show their goodwill, the Hezbollah-led opposition will tear down the tents that they had set up in downtown Beirut (the heart of the Hariri kingdom) bringing life back to the commercial district of the Lebanese capital.

Who wins now in Beirut politics? By virtue of avoiding another civil war, all sides win, topped with the Lebanese people. Certainly, Hezbollah came out victorious. So did the Syrians and Iran. The Syrians in particular seemed to be on cloud nine, since shortly after the agreement was announced in Doha another declaration came out, this time from Damascus, Tel Aviv and Ankara, saying that indirect talks had started between Syria and Israel, under auspices of the Turks.
The only side that might not be too happy with what happened in Doha is Saudi Arabia. The deal was brokered by the Qataris and not them, although they had been the ones to supervise the deal at Taif, which led to en end to civil war in 1990.
The Syrians, whom they had tried to sideline in Beirut and empower March 14, certainly proved that they still had a lot of weight in Lebanon, although they had been out of Lebanon - militarily - since 2005. Saudi Arabia's proxies were defeated militarily in the street confrontations last week, and politically in Doha. After all, despite all the macho talk, they finally bent and accepted the demands of the Hezbollah-led opposition. Hezbollah and its friends were actually given the veto power they had long wanted, kept their arms, and secured a president for Lebanon who was not a member of the March 14 coalition.
Nasrallah is writing history, just like Churchill but perhaps with a different pen and in a different handwriting.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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