LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 29/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10,32-45. They were on the way, going up to Jerusalem, and Jesus went ahead of them. They were amazed, and those who followed were afraid. Taking the Twelve aside again, he began to tell them what was going to happen to him. Behold, we are going up to Jerusalem, and the Son of Man will be handed over to the chief priests and the scribes, and they will condemn him to death and hand him over to the Gentiles who will mock him, spit upon him, scourge him, and put him to death, but after three days he will rise." Then James and John, the sons of Zebedee, came to him and said to him, "Teacher, we want you to do for us whatever we ask of you." He replied, "What do you wish (me) to do for you?" They answered him, "Grant that in your glory we may sit one at your right and the other at your left." Jesus said to them, "You do not know what you are asking. Can you drink the cup that I drink or be baptized with the baptism with which I am baptized?"They said to him, "We can." Jesus said to them, "The cup that I drink, you will drink, and with the baptism with which I am baptized, you will be baptized; but to sit at my right or at my left is not mine to give but is for those for whom it has been prepared." When the ten heard this, they became indignant at James and John. Jesus summoned them and said to them, "You know that those who are recognized as rulers over the Gentiles lord it over them, and their great ones make their authority over them felt. But it shall not be so among you. Rather, whoever wishes to be great among you will be your servant; whoever wishes to be first among you will be the slave of all. For the Son of Man did not come to be served but to serve and to give his life as a ransom for many."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The black channel and the White House-Ha'aretz 28/05/08
A look at Lebanon's new leader-Boston Globe 28/05/08
'Prisoner swap possible in 'opportune' regional situation-Jerusalem Post 28/05/08
Lebanon's election law needs an overhaul-By Michael Meyer-Resende and Ammar Abboud 28.05.08
A proposal that merits Hariri's attention - as well as that of all Lebanese- The Daily Star 28.05.08
Michel Sleiman and Tough Choices. By: Elias Harfouch 28/05/08
Analysis: Will Israel & Syria get serious?United Press International 28/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 28/08

Majority Backs Saniora for PM, Opposition Prepares for Confrontation-Naharnet

Opposition Accuses Majority of Thwarting Safadi's Nomination-Nahaernet

Amnesty Assesses Lebanon Human Rights Conditions in 2007-Naharnet

Ban Stresses Importance of Doha Accord's Spirit-Naharnet

Report: Israel, Syria agree on 85% of issues-Ynetnews

Lebanon parliament majority picks Siniora to head govt-AFP

Israel fears Iran may attack Israeli targets abroad over Syria talks-Ha'aretz

Hezbollah spy to be released next week-Ha'aretz

US suggests Hezbollah speech shows self-inflicted damage-AFP

Gunfire between Rivals Kills Army Soldier in Aramoun-Naharnet
Lebanese soldier killed in gunfight in Dohet Aramoun-Daily Star

March 14 bloc nominates Siniora to head new unity government-Daily Star

Mustaqbal Bloc Mourns Victims of 'Hizbullah Aggression', Assigns Hariri to Consult Allies Over New Premier-Naharnet

Hariri: 'The doors of dialogue are open-Daily Star

Lawyers launch bold plan for sweeping reform-Daily Star

Veteran journalist Nabih Basho dies at age 70-Daily Star

UAE official slams Iran's portrayal of island dispute-AFP
Israel keeps eye on top officers for fear of attacks-Daily Star
Europe congratulates Lebanon on Suleiman election-Daily Star
US-funded media project aims to foster reconciliation-Daily Star

Political thaw to renew influx of foreign funds into Lebanon-Daily Star

Some analysts see Doha agreement as stopgap solution to Lebanon's crisis-AFP
Israel sees peace with Syria as way to 'isolate Iran, silence Hizbullah-AFP

US sanctions cripple Syria's national airline-AFP
AMAL-Hizbullah Urge Partisans to Refrain from Jubilant Shooting-Naharnet

Beirut Security Plan Bans Motorcycles-Naharnet

US Suggests Hizbullah Speech Shows Self-Inflicted Damage-Naharnet

Israeli Minister: Peace with Syria would Isolate Iran, Hizbullah -Naharnet
Israel's Staticide?Town Hall

Lebanon falls... and the West Bank rises=Jerusalem Post

Iranian defense minister: Israel-Syria talks 'philosophical'-Ynetnews

Washington Watch: Shame falls on cedars-Jerusalem Post

Why Israel Is Talking to Its Enemies-TIME

Rice not expected to meet with Iran, Syria at conference-Reuters

A look at Lebanon's new leader
May 28, 2008 -Boston Glob
AS THE LEBANESE celebrate an end to a political crisis that stifled their country for 18 months and almost led them to civil war, many are left wondering about the implications of the accord reached between the Lebanese leaders in Doha. Did the Hezbollah-led opposition succeed in translating this month's military victory in Beirut into political gains? Is the Doha agreement a total capitulation for the pro-government coalition?
The Doha Agreement is certainly a success for the opposition in the sense that Hezbollah and its allies were rewarded for the use of their weapons. The fighting forced the Cabinet to give Hezbollah the power to veto major government decisions. Yet the foremost winner is Lebanon's new president, Michel Suleiman.
Suleiman is set to emerge as an influential third party capable of tipping the political scale one way or another. Whether through the powers of the presidency, his influence within the military, the three key ministers he will appoint, or the parliamentary alliances expected to coalesce around him, Suleiman is poised to play a leading role in Lebanon's politics that is likely to reshape the political dynamics that have been in place since the end of Syrian occupation three years ago.
The primary loser, on the other hand, is not the pro-government coalition but Hezbollah ally General Michel Aoun. The aging Aoun had long aspired to become president, and Suleiman's election for a six-year presidential term is sure to leave most of his supporters demoralized.
Many will now question Aoun's strategy of breaking with the Cedar Revolution and allying himself with Hezbollah. More important, Aoun is unlikely to maintain his substantial parliamentary bloc after the 2009 elections, especially given that candidates allied with Suleiman will probably be vying for the same seats.
The expected reversal in Aoun's fortunes will no doubt constitute a political victory for the coalition and a net political loss for the opposition. Thus far he has inflicted great damage to the course charted by the Cedar Revolution by providing Hezbollah with Christian support and allowing it to present itself as a national opposition group rather than a Shia militant organization. By the same measure he has also rid the pro-government coalition of significant Christian support. This may no longer be the case in the coming months.
Should the agreement in Doha succeed in being more than just a temporary political Band-Aid, the United States and the international community need to reconsider their Lebanon policy. Although political and economic support for Lebanon's fragile government should continue, the international community must work to build influence and leverage with Suleiman.
One way to do that is to focus on the military institution from which Suleiman hails, providing it not only adequate logistics and weaponry but also training and exchange programs abroad. The military has many shortfalls, including structural limitations due to its sectarian composition and its failure to defend Beirut from Hezbollah's recent attack. Yet it did confront Hezbollah riots earlier this year before being reprimanded for doing so. Together the army may again be ready to live up to its responsibilities to provide adequate political and military support.
Suleiman is no pro-Western democrat, that's for sure. Yet he is set to emerge as a leading force within the influential Christian community and the only party capable of exerting added pressure on Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian groups.
Furthermore as a military commander who successfully led a four-month war against an Al Qaeda-style group he enjoys the status of a war hero and is a product of Lebanon's only remaining viable institution, the national army.
Supporting Suleiman is not a sure bet, but under the circumstances it may be the best bet against what pundits are prematurely labeling as a resounding Hezbollah victory.
***Firas Maksad is a Lebanon analyst and executive director of Lebanese Renaissance Foundation USA.

Majority Backs Saniora for PM, Opposition Prepares for Confrontation
Naharnet/The majority March 14 alliance has decided to keep Fouad Saniora as Lebanon's prime minister, a move that apparently angered the Hizbullah-led opposition which is said to be preparing for a confrontation. "The March 14 leadership unanimously agreed to nominate Premier Fouad Saniora to form the next cabinet," the coalition's leaders said in a statement after a three-hour meeting late Tuesday at MP Saad Hariri's residence in Qoreitem. There was a strong March 14 trend supporting Hariri's nomination for the premiership post. But the coalition finally settled on Saniora. An Nahar daily said Wednesday that Hariri suggested nominating Saniora for the post during the Qoreitem meeting which ended around midnight. Soon after the majority decision, the opposition quickly held telephone contacts to take a stance from Saniora's nomination. Al Akhbar newspaper on Wednesday quoted opposition sources as saying that the Syrian- and Iranian-backed March 8 Forces were getting ready to plan the cabinet shape-up "such as there will be a confrontation inside the Saniora government and his team."
Other sources, however, said the cabinet formation, which was expected to resemble a "spring excursion," took a different path overnight – a conservative path which is likely to turn the cabinet formation into a "complicated and difficult process."
This issue, according to one source, will need more than the "Qartaris" to solve, a reference to the Arab-brokered agreement in Doha which ended Lebanon's 18-month political deadlock, "particularly since each of the rival camp set a list of conditions and names and portfolios." The sources said the issue of who gets the interior ministry portfolio also remained a major knot. Saniora has been prime minister since July 2005, a few months after former Premier Rafik Hariri was killed in a Beirut bombing. President Michel Suleiman is scheduled to poll lawmakers on their choice for prime minister Wednesday. The new PM in turn will hold his own consultations with the same parliamentary blocs in order to form the next cabinet.
Suleiman, the army chief, was elected by parliament as a consensus president Sunday. His election was the first step in the Doha unity deal designed to end the prolonged political stalemate that exploded this month into the worst bloodshed since Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war. Under terms of the agreement, a 30-member national unity cabinet will be formed in which Hizbullah and its allies will have veto power. The deal allocates 16 seats for the parliamentary majority, 11 for the opposition and three to be named by the president. An Nahar quoted Saniora as saying during the March 14 meeting that the new government's main focus would be to hold parliamentary elections that meet the aspirations of the Lebanese.(Naharnet-AP) Beirut, 28 May 08, 08:24

Opposition Accuses Majority of Thwarting Safadi's Nomination
Naharnet/Information leaked by opposition circles on Wednesday said that there was a strong attempt to persuade cabinet minister Mohammed Safadi into nominating himself for the premiership post which will give him "tentative support" from the majority of the opposition MPs as well as several March 14 lawmakers.
The circles said that Safadi showed readiness to "enter this battle" in the event that the majority March 14 coalition decided not to nominate MP Saad Hariri for prime minister. They said Safadi has asked March 14 leaders about the reason for restricting the nominations to Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, arguing that "I am from March 14 just as Saniora is." Opposition sources said "quick intervention" by March 14 made Safadi, who heads the Tripoli bloc, reluctant to declare his candidacy. The sources said Saudi ambassador Abdul Aziz Khoja told the conferees in Qoreitem, including Safadi, that Riyadh sees "advantage in the two," meaning Saniora and Hariri. They said Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun called Safadi overnight and the head of Tripoli bloc informed him that he will not nominate himself for prime minister. Beirut, 28 May 08, 09:10

Saniora Set to Head New Government
Naharnet/Lebanon's new President Michel Suleiman began consultations on forming a government of national unity on Wednesday after the parliamentary majority chose Fouad Saniora to reassume the post of premier. Suleiman met members of the various blocs in parliament and was set to formally appoint Saniora to head a 30-member cabinet of national unity in which the Hizbullah-led opposition will have veto power over key decisions.
Formation of a unity government is a key plan of a deal hammered out by rival factions last week to end an 18-month political crisis that boiled over into deadly fighting and threatened to plunge the nation back into civil war. Lebanon's parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri -- also tipped as a possible prime minister -- said his bloc had decided to nominate Saniora again as he was the best man for the job. "We didn't name Saniora as a challenge (to the opposition) but as a move toward real reconciliation and to turn over a new page," he told reporters after meeting Suleiman in Baabda.
The opposition, however, made clear that it was not satisfied with the choice of Saniora, saying he did not reflect the spirit of national unity called for in last week's Arab-brokered accord reached in Doha. "His nomination is a recipe for conflict rather than reconciliation," Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun said. "It seems the ruling bloc, rather than battling for a new Lebanon, is seeking to unleash a new conflict." He added however that the opposition would not stand in the way of forming a new government. Saniora, 64, a Sunni Muslim and close ally of slain former premier Rafik Hariri, has been prime minister since 2005 and has been heading a caretaker government since Suleiman's election by parliament on Sunday. Opposition newspapers said the nomination of Saniora, whose Western-backed administration was crippled by a long-running opposition protest campaign, could complicate the formation of the new government.
"All indicators were that the formation of the new government was going to be a picnic if Hariri was chosen," said As-Safir. "But observers believe that the make-up of the government will now be a complicated matter that might require the Qataris to get back in the game especially since each party is setting conditions as far as names and portfolios." The paper said the cabinet post likely to prove to be a stumbling block was the job of interior minister.
Much of Saniora's term has been dominated by the standoff with the Hizbullah-led opposition which withdrew its ministers from his government in 2006 in a bid to force Saniora to resign. Saniora had told AFP at the weekend he was no longer interested in the job but would stay on if asked. "I served for three years and I believe it is somehow time for a change," he said. "I've had enough, it's time for me to go and seek other matters that have to do with public affairs."
Observers said the parliamentary majority decided to keep Saniora in his post to allow Hariri to prepare for a legislative election next year.
Suleiman, Lebanon's army chief for 10 years, is set to formally appoint Saniora after wrapping up consultations on Wednesday and the new government is expected to be formed within a week. Suleiman's election on Sunday followed the deal brokered in the Qatari capital, which also calls for the formation of a unity government in which the opposition has veto power, and a new electoral law. It was reached after sectarian battles earlier this month left at least 65 people dead and saw Hizbullah stage a spectacular takeover of Sunni sectors of west Beirut. The violence, sparked by government measures against Hizbullah that were eventually rescinded, was the worst sectarian unrest since the end of the country's 1975-1990 civil war. Despite the Qatar deal, sporadic clashes between rival groups have flared up this week, leaving one soldier dead on Tuesday. In a bid to defuse the tension the interior ministry has imposed an indefinite ban on motorbikes, provocative convoys, slogans or flag waving in Beirut.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 28 May 08, 14:08

Qatar PM Wins Libel Case in Kuwait over Israel Links
Naharnet/A Kuwaiti court has convicted Al-Watan newspaper of libel against Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani for claiming he made deals with Israel, his lawyer said on Wednesday. "We filed three lawsuits against the daily for a series of articles which falsely accused Sheikh Hamad of making business and diplomatic deals with Israel," Hussein al-Ghareeb told AFP. The articles, which also mocked the Qatari premier, were written by Kuwaiti columnist Fouad al-Hashem last year. The court ordered the newspaper to pay compensation of 2,000 Kuwaiti dinars (7,550 dollars) for each of the first and second cases and temporary compensation of 5,001 dinars (18,870 dollars) for the third, Ghareeb said.
The verdicts, issued on Monday, are not final and can be challenged before the courts of appeals and cassation, the lawyer said.
Ghareeb said that when the verdicts become final, he plans to file another lawsuit to demand more damages for defamation, adding that the amount sought had not been decided. Under Kuwaiti law, a temporary compensation verdict allows beneficiaries to request further damages in a new lawsuit.
Gas-rich Qatar has political contacts with Israel and hosts an Israeli commercial interests office in Doha. Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni visited Qatar in April to address a democracy forum. Ties with Israel are a highly controversial issue in the Arab world in the absence of progress towards a settlement of the 60-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.(AFP) Beirut, 28 May 08, 13:59

Barak Calls on Olmert to Resign
Israeli Defense Minister and Labor party chairman Ehud Barak on Wednesday demanded Prime Minister Ehud Olmert step down over corruption allegations.(AFP) Beirut, 28 May 08, 13:52

Larijani Elected Iran's Parliament Speaker
Naharnet/Iran's new parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly elected leading conservative and former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani as its speaker, state media reported. Larijani won 232 votes out of a total of 263 ballots cast in parliament, which has a total of 287 members, the student ISNA news agency reported.
Larijani is an unwavering conservative who nonetheless belongs to a growing group of hardliners critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
One of the top conservative figures in Iran, Larijani has held posts including top nuclear negotiator, state broadcasting chief, culture minister as well as unsuccessfully standing for president against Ahmadinejad in 2005. He typifies an increasingly prominent group in Iranian politics who remain rigidly loyal to the principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution but are distinctly lukewarm over the presidency of the ultra-conservative Ahmadinejad. The divisions between the two were laid bare in October when Larijani resigned his post as top nuclear negotiator amid speculation that he was ready to take a slightly more pragmatic line in the standoff with the West.(AFP) Beirut, 28 May 08, 08:32

Amnesty Assesses Lebanon Human Rights Conditions in 2007
Naharnet/Amnesty International said Wednesday that both the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam fighters put civilians at risk during the Nahr al-Bared fighting last year. The human rights organization said in its annual report that 168 Lebanese soldiers, 42 civilians and 220 Fatah al-Islam members were killed during the fighting which started May 20 and ended on Sept. 2 when the army gained control of the camp. "During the clashes, both sides put civilians at risk," it said.
"It appeared that after the army took control there was widespread looting, burning and vandalism of vacated homes and property. In December, the Prime Minister wrote to Amnesty International to say that the army was investigating the reports, noting that one finding was that the army had burned some homes to rid them of a poison spread by Fatah al-Islam," said the group.
The London-based non-governmental organization said some 200 people were arrested and remained detained on account of their suspected involvement with Fatah al-Islam. It also criticized "increased reports of torture and other ill-treatment, particularly of Palestinians, Sunni security suspects and individuals suspected of involvement with Fatah al-Islam." It said at least two men died in custody, possibly as a result of ill-treatment. The NGO said Lebanon witnessed political violence and instability in 2007, with more than 40 people killed in bombings and other attacks. The report mentioned the assassinations of MPs Walid Eido and Antoine Ghanem respectively on June 13 and September 19 and the killing of six U.N. peacekeepers in an explosion targeting their convoy near the southern town of Khiam on June 24. On refugees, the NGO said several hundred thousand Palestinians continued to suffer from discriminatory restrictions affecting their economic and social rights. "Over half of Palestinian refugees live in decaying and chronically overcrowded camps or in informal gatherings that lack basic infrastructure," it said.
The report highlighted the case of hundreds of some 50,000 Iraqi refugees who were detained for not having valid visas or residence permits, saying the detainees faced indefinite detention or return to Iraq. About women's rights, the report said women "continued to face widespread discrimination in public and private life. Neither the legal system nor the policies and practices of the state provided adequate protection from violence in the family."
"Injustice, inequality and impunity are the hallmarks of our world today. Governments must act now to close the yawning gap between promise and performance," the head of Amnesty International Irene Khan said in the report's foreword. Pressing issues for 2008 were Darfur, Zimbabwe, Gaza, Iraq and Myanmar, she added, calling on governments to recommit to the founding principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Beirut, 28 May 08, 10:27

Gunfire between Rivals Kills Army Soldier in Aramoun
Naharnet/Gunfire between rivals has killed a Lebanese army soldier in Dawhit Aramoun in the Aley region southeast of Beirut. Security sources said the fight began at 7 pm Tuesday when brothers Danny and Rami Abdel-Khaleq, who are residents of Dawhit Aramoun, quarreled with Ismail Daqqa, a Hizbullah official. Al Mustaqbal movement of MP Saad Hariri said, however, that the clash was between citizens and Hizbullah members. Security sources said the argument over a parking space soon deteriorated into armed clashes, killing Hussein Mohammed Janbeh, a Lebanese army soldier, and wounding several people. Janbeh was deployed with his unit to control the violence. The security sources said gunshots were then fired in the direction of the Abdel-Khaleq brothers from the building where Daqqa resides. They said the two brothers rushed to a nearby army checkpoint but gunshots continued to explode, leading to the wounding of Janbeh, who died on his way to hospital. Army troops quickly deployed in the area and restored order. A Hizbullah statement issued late Tuesday said the Abdel-Khaleq brothers "verbally harassed and beat up" Daqqa, whom they identified as a religious cleric. The statement accused Danny Abdel-Khaleq of opening fire in the direction of Daqqa's family who rushed to help him. The statement said that the soldier was killed by gunshots fired by Danny when an army patrol was inspecting the area. Hizbullah said that the brothers were supporters of Druze leader Walid Jumblat's Progressive Socialist Party. Beirut, 28 May 08, 08:09

Ban Stresses Importance of Doha Accord's Spirit
-NaharnetU.N. Chief Ban Ki-moon has said he did not expect the Doha agreement to end all lingering problems in Lebanon, stressing the importance of the deal's "spirit." "The most important thing is the spirit of the Doha accord" which ended an 18-month political crisis, Ban told An Nahar daily's correspondent in New York on Tuesday upon returning from cyclone-hit Myanmar and quake devastated China. He said he "strongly encourages" the agreement which gives Lebanon a new opportunity to reach national reconciliation and "political and social stability." Ban also hoped that Lebanese "democratic institutions" would start functioning again after Gen. Michel Suleiman was elected president. He said he didn't expect the deal signed in the Qatari capital to solve "all lingering problems" although there are many issues that need to be solved, including those related to Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701. The two resolutions call for the disarming of Hizbullah, an issue not tackled by the Doha agreement. Ban told An Nahar that the U.N. and himself would make sure that all Security Council resolutions are fully implemented. Beirut, 28 May 08, 05:50

The black channel and the White House
By Amir Oren -Haaretz
It is also good that Ehud Olmert now thinks so, too - even if if he was a few years late. But the loud revelations of the indirect, low-level talks between the two countries under Turkish auspices were mostly a matter of making a mountain out of a molehill.
The package was colorful and large, but inside, instead of a nice wad of bills, there were just a few meager coins. There is no peace in the Middle East without the Americans, and as long as there are no Americans in the Israeli-Syrian story, there will never be any real progress in the negotiations between the two sides.
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After all, at the end of the process an American brigade is expected to report for duty on the evacuated Golan, an airborne early warning above will calm Israeli fears, and brand new weaponry will compensate Israel for the increased military risk.
Such an agreement was discussed between then president Bill Clinton and prime minister Ehud Barak in the previous round of serious talks between Israel and Syria, in 2000. Olmert goes out of his way to ridicule the obvious relationship between the revelations of talks that started in February 2007 and the fresh allegations against him in the Talansky affair. But the investigations did not start with Talansky, and the schedule certainly reflects the desire to show a diplomatic achievement in light of his entanglement in criminal investigations. And such an agreement is certainly possible.
Olmert was already a criminal suspect in January 2007, when the then state prosecutor, Eran Shendar, ordered the police to investigate Olmert's involvement in the Bank Leumi privatization sale affair. Under the cover of the Ankara talks, Bashir Assad built his North Korean nuclear reactor. While the talks went on, Israel bombed the reactor and has continued to keep the operation under strict censorship - like the Syrians - which raises doubts as to the true meaning of the peace process seemingly represented by the talks.
The defense establishment, which refuses media requests to lift the censorship, still warns that the threat is still high of an escalation to the point of war with Syria, and thus broadcasts its lack of faith in the chances of the talks' success. Either the intelligence branch pretends to know that Assad is not serious about peace, or the IDF - which supports peace with Syria in return for the Golan - knows Olmert is not serious.
The acceptance of Israel is not exactly what the Arabs want, but they acknowledge that it is the price to be paid for moving closer to the U.S. The brokers of the secret preliminary talks could be any other country, Romania or Morocco with the Egyptians, Norway with the PLO; or the contacts can be direct as with Jordan. But the talks will not bear fruit unless they receive the approval of the U.S. administration and Congress.
At the end of every tunnel shines the White House. In the Syrian case the process is particularly difficult to comprehend, since the talks have gone from the main road to a back alley. For almost the entire previous decade, official delegations from the countries, chiefs of staff and finally the prime minster with the foreign minister all met - and all under American patronage.
Turkey is a problematic broker, and not only because it has nothing of value to pay off the sides. The Bush administration has never forgiven Turkey for ruining its attack plans for Iraq in the spring of 2003, when Turkey would not allow a U.S. armored division to invade from the northeast.
True, the Americans found an alternative, parachuting in a brigade, which linked up with the Kurds and tied down an Iraqi division. But the Americans still carry the scar, which hurts every time the Turks make their excursions into Iraqi Kurdistan.
Retired general Joseph Ralston, who worked in 2006-2007 to bridge between the Turkish needs to fight the Kurdish PKK underground and the American aspirations to stabilize a new Iraq - which would include a strong Kurdish region - gave up and retired.
He never talked with the PKK. The group is as unacceptable as Hamas and Hezbollah. At the beginning of the decade Ralston held a double role: the commander of NATO and the commander of EUCOM, the U.S. European Command which included responsibility for Israel, Turkey, Syria and Lebanon.
Later, as a result of the Iraq war, Syria and Lebanon were transfered to the responsibility of CENTCOM, the Central Command.
The change contributed to a new way of looking at the Middle East, as a region where the Arab-Israeli and Palestinian-Israeli conflicts are important but not central. The illusion was weakened by believing that a solution to the two conflicts - even at Israel's expense - would satisfy such bitter American enemies as Al-Qaida and Iran. General Martin Dempsey, deputy commander of CENTCOM, visited Lebanon two weeks ago and met with the commander of the Lebanese Army, Michel Sleiman. The choice of Sleiman as president is considered a Syrian victory, and proves the Americans' inability to prevent the strengthening of the Hezbollah.
Turning the secret contacts between Israel and Syria into open talks did not impress the incoming commander of CENTCOM, General David Petraeus, now the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq. He is examining the Syrians in light of the Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi situations: from Baghdad it looks quite different.
Petraeus spoke quite firmly in his testimony last week in the Senate Armed Services Committee against Syrian (and Iranian) nuclear ambitions, and against the Syrian aid to U.S. enemies in Iraq. So how can we encourage Syrian-Israeli peace, Petraeus was asked? By defeating the Syrian-backed extremist groups, he answered, and by stopping the anti-American propaganda spread in the region by the Syrian regime.

Hezbollah is viewed as a rising threat
Iran-backed group may surpass danger of al-Qaida
By Bradley Olson | Sun reporter
May 26, 2008
As the Bush administration sought last week to play down Hezbollah's success in boosting its power and legitimacy in Lebanon, the militant group's rising influence around the world has led some intelligence and counterterrorism officials to ask whether the Iranian-financed organization has grown more dangerous to the United States than al-Qaida.
Though few believe Hezbollah would launch an attack in the West, continued hostility between the United States and Iran could significantly raise the threat level here, several former counterterrorism officials and analysts said - especially if the tensions evolve into full-blown conflict.
Compared with al-Qaida, Hezbollah has a far more pronounced posture inside the United States and around the world, analysts and Bush administration officials have said. And while it has not organized an attack against the United States in 25 years, the group had more American blood on its hands before the Sept. 11 attacks than any other terrorist operation - the deadliest example being the 1983 suicide bombing that killed more than 200 Marines in Beirut.
"They are the granddaddy of them all," said Kenneth Bell, a former federal prosecutor who disrupted a Hezbollah cell in North Carolina in 2002, leading to a more than 100-year jail sentence for the group's ringleader. "Hezbollah has the greater infrastructure, expertise and arms to be much more lethal as an organization than al-Qaida."
Lebanon rests hope on newly elected president Some hard-liners have described the Islamist group's activities in Lebanon during the past month as an effective coup, after militants boldly seized much of West Beirut when the government tried to shut down its communications networks.
Nearly 70 people were killed in the ensuing violence before a power-sharing arrangement brokered by Arab nations gave Hezbollah what amounts to veto power over the new government, which selected army chief Michel Suleiman as the country's new president yesterday.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that the group hurt its own cause among the Lebanese when its members "turned their arms on its own people," but some analysts and former intelligence officers say that Hezbollah's continued defiance of the West has made it more powerful than ever and a looming threat to the United States.
Last year's highly controversial National Intelligence Estimate predicted as much, noting that the group had concentrated its attacks outside the United States but might consider such an operation if "it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran."
Most intelligence and counterterrorism analysts credit the group with an extraordinary global presence of several thousand operatives, with cells in Europe, Africa and North and South America. In the United States, the group has limited itself to recruitment as well as fundraising through a variety of illegal schemes, including cigarette smuggling and drug-trafficking.
In addition to the North Carolina cell disrupted in 2002 that was sending cheap cigarettes purchased in that state to Dearborn, Mich., Hezbollah-linked rings have been caught or implicated in Los Angeles and New York, often funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars to the organization through cashier's checks and money orders.
"If it appears that there's a crisis with Iran, we have to be very concerned about Hezbollah agents operating in this country," said Rep. Peter T. King, a New York Republican and ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee. "There are people under surveillance … and we are constantly on the lookout through international intelligence and our own to be on our guard against Hezbollah."
"Now that Hezbollah has regained power in Lebanon, it is a strategic extension of the Iranian regime," said Walid Phares, director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, who recently provided a closed briefing on Lebanon to congressional staff members. "If we get an escalation of tension with Iran, the Iranians will use Hezbollah against the interests of the U.S. and its allies. They will use the Lebanese republic and the Lebanese diaspora."
One possibility likely to lead to increased tension would be any echoes of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that engulfed the country in the summer of 2006.
Claire Lopez, a professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies who teaches a course on Middle Eastern intelligence services, said because of the recent power-sharing agreement in Lebanon, there is "a strong possibility of hostilities breaking out again.
"You almost don't know what could set it off," she said. "In an atmosphere like this, it could be any little spark, any little trigger. … If Israel responds with strong force, Hezbollah cells elsewhere certainly could be activated for a terror attack mission."
But others noted that the group did not launch any such effort during the monthlong war with Israel. Instead, it has continued to use hundreds of millions of dollars from Iran to operate a de facto government and deliver social services to the Lebanese. Any terrorist attack would hurt its developing political posture, which remains one of the most important differences between Hezbollah and al-Qaida.
"With al-Qaida, there is no political legitimacy, even though they've tried," said Roger Cressey, a former White House counterterrorism official during the Clinton and Bush administrations. "It's a movement driven by violence more than anything else."
Cressey and others said the leaders of Hezbollah might be disinclined to lose an important financing vehicle such as the United States. Beyond that risk, a terrorist attack would draw the ire of the American public and international community.
Still, if it ever became necessary to take on the group, such an effort would prove "very difficult," Cressey said.
"You're not going to destroy Hezbollah as an organization," he said. "That's what Israel taught us in 2006. We haven't done a hell of a lot to degrade Hezbollah's capability, which could only happen in the context of a direct confrontation between us and them. Fortunately, that's not in either side's interest right now."
bradley.olson@baltsun.com

Lebanon parliament majority picks Siniora to head govt
BEIRUT (AFP) — Lebanon's Western-backed parliamentary majority said on Wednesday it has chosen Prime Minister Fuad Siniora to head the next cabinet of national unity under newly-elected President Michel Sleiman.
The so-called March 14 ruling bloc said in a statement it decided on Siniora at a late-night meeting on Tuesday and was to inform Sleiman of its choice when he begins consultations on Wednesday on forming the government. "The March 14 coalition decided unanimously to nominated his excellency Fuad Siniora to head the new government in line with the Doha agreement," it said. Siniora, 64, a Sunni Muslim and close ally of slain former premier Rafiq Hariri, has been prime minister since 2005 and has been heading a caretaker government since Sleiman's election by parliament on Sunday. Formation of a unity government is a key plank of a deal hammered out by rival factions last week to end an 18-month political crisis that boiled over into deadly sectarian fighting and threatened to plunge the nation back into civil war. The Hezbollah-led opposition, backed by Syria and Iran, is expected to baulk at Siniora's nomination but can do little to block it as the president must go with the choice of the parliamentary majority. Only Siniora and majority leader Saad Hariri, the son of Rafiq Hariri, were being considered by the ruling bloc for the premiership.
Opposition newspapers said the nomination of Siniora, whose US-backed administration was crippled by the opposition campaign against it, could complicate the formation of the new government. "All indicators were that the formation of the new government was going to be a picnic if Hariri was chosen," said As-Safir. "But observers believe that the make-up of the government will now be a complicated matter that might require the Qataris to get back in the game especially since each party is setting conditions as far as names and portfolios."
The paper said that the cabinet post likely to prove to be a stumbling block was the job of interior minister.
Much of Siniora's term in office was dominated by a standoff with the Hezbollah-led opposition which withdrew its ministers from his government in 2006 in a bid to force Siniora to resign. Siniora told AFP at the weekend that he was no longer interested in the job but would stay on if asked.
"I served for three years and I believe it is somehow time for a change," he said. "I've had enough, it's time for me to go and seek other matters that have to do with public affairs."
Observers say that the coalition decided to keep Siniora in his post in order to allow Hariri to prepare for a legislative election next year.
Sleiman, Lebanon's army chief for 10 years, will formally appoint Siniora to form a new cabinet in which the opposition will have veto power over key decisions after meeting with the various parliamentary blocs on Wednesday. The new government is expected to be formed within a week.
Sleiman's election on Sunday came following a deal brokered in the Qatari capital Doha to end the standoff, which calls for Sleiman's election, the formation of a unity government in which the opposition has veto power, and a new electoral law.
It came after sectarian violence that saw Hezbollah earlier this month stage a spectacular takeover of Sunni sectors of west Beirut in fighting that left at least 65 people dead. The violence, sparked by a government measures against Hezbollah that were eventually rescinded, was the worst sectarian unrest since the end of the country's 1975-1990 civil war. Under Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president has to be a Christian Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.

US suggests Hezbollah speech shows self-inflicted damage
WASHINGTON (AFP) — Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's claim that his group does not want to control Lebanon may reveal how self-defeating its recent armed offensive in Beirut was, a senior US official said Tuesday.
"I think their actions belie the statements," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters when asked to comment on Nasrallah's speech to his supporters in Lebanon on Monday. "They (Hezbollah) showed a willingness to use arms to kill their fellow citizens. Perhaps these words are a recognition of the real political damage done to Hezbollah," he said. "Any pretense of it as a liberation organization, or an organization designed to protect Lebanese from outsiders has really been torn away," McCormack added.
The Hezbollah-led opposition, which won admiration in the past for fighting Lebanon's southern neighbor Israel, staged a spectacular armed takeover of large swathes of mainly Sunni west Beirut earlier this month. The assault angered many Lebanese but led to negotiations to end an 18-month political feud between the Hezbollah-led opposition and the Western-backed ruling majority that left the nation without a head of state for six months. As part of a deal brokered in Qatar last week by the Arab League, General Michel Sleiman was elected by parliament Sunday in a first step towards national reconciliation. The following day, in a speech marking the eighth anniversary of Israel's pullout from south Lebanon after a two-decade occupation, Nasrallah pledged that his Shiite Muslim group would not use its weapons for political gains.
"Hezbollah does not want power over Lebanon, nor does it want to control Lebanon or govern the country," Nasrallah said.
But he also warned that the new government should not try to use the army to tackle the weapons of Hezbollah or any of its political allies.
Analysts give some credence to US State Department arguments that Hezbollah has lost popular support by turning its guns on fellow Lebanese rather than its traditional enemy Israel. But analysts said that, at least in the short term, it was the US-backed government of Fuad Siniora that suffered the political setback, not Hezbollah, which they said achieved political gain through force of arms.

Mustaqbal Bloc Mourns Victims of 'Hizbullah Aggression', Assigns Hariri to Consult Allies Over New Premier
Naharnet/The Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday Mourned victims of the "Hizbullah aggression" and assigned its leader MP Saad Hariri to undergo consultations with March 14 allies to nominate a candidate for the post of prime minister. The bloc, in a statement issued after its meeting at Hariri's Beirut residence, also paid tribute to outgoing Premier Fouad Saniora and members of his cabinet for succeeding in protecting "the constitutional legitimacy for three years." "Events witnessed by Beirut districts after the election of President Michel Suleiman are a negative message to all the Lebanese and to the promising atmosphere that prevailed after President Suleiman's election," the statement said. Shooting of fire arms by Hizbullah partisans and allies in Beirut on Monday resulted in wounding at least 23 people.Police said it has identified 11 of the assailants and vowed to arrest them. The statement said bloc members observed a moment of silence in Mourning of "the innocent martyrs who fell during the ongoing organized aggression staged by Hizbullah and followers against legitimacy, the rule of law and civic peace since May seven." Bloc members also observed a moment of silence in remembrance of slain ex-Premier Rafik Hariri "the martyr of Beirut and Lebanon, hoping that all the Lebanese who remember him these days in public speeches and political dialogue wouldn't forget who assassinated him and for which purpose."
That was in reference to Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah who delivered a speech on Monday, during which he urged followers of the slain Harri to benefit from his example. Beirut, 27 May 08, 17:19

Nasrallah set 'red line' for Suleiman - analysts
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Rouba Kabbara -Agence France Presse
BEIRUT: Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has sent a stern message to Lebanon's new president by warning against any attempt to disarm his resistance group, analysts say. "Nasrallah in his speech Tuesday said verbally what he said militarily three weeks ago - that the weapons of the resistance are off the table," said Oussama Safa, head of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. "He said that no institution in Lebanon will dare tackle the weapons of the resistance without the consent of Hizbullah," he added. "He essentially defined his weapons as a red line not to be crossed."
The Hizbullah-led opposition staged a spectacular armed takeover of large swathes of west Beirut earlier this month in response to government measures against the group that were later revoked. In his speech that came as Lebanon's new President Michel Suleiman began his first full day in office, Nasrallah made clear that Hizbullah's weapons were not up for discussion. He also warned that the new government should not try to use the army to tackle the weapons of Hizbullah or any of its political allies. "The government's weapons or those of the army or armed forces are to defend the nation, the people and their rights, the government, and to maintain security," he said in his first public comments since the power grab in Beirut.
"The government's weapons cannot be used to settle accounts with a political opponent. The government's weapons cannot be used to target the resistance and its arms," he added. But Nasrallah also vowed that his resistance group would not use its weapons to achieve political gains and that it was not seeking to control Lebanon. Nabil Bou Monsef, a political analyst for the Lebanese daily An-Nahar, said Nasrallah's position was "very dangerous" as it clearly sets limits for the new government. "Nasrallah in a very direct manner is imposing his views on the state when it comes to defence strategy," Bou Monsef told AFP. "His position has not changed." He said Nasrallah's comments were in response to Suleiman's inaugural speech over the weekend during which he called for a national dialogue over Hizbullah's weapons.
"Suleiman's proposal came off as one of a patriot who sympathizes with the resistance ... But despite this, he set limits," Bou Monsef said.
March 14 Forces MP Elias Attallah said Nasrallah had moved quickly to define the boundaries for the new government between the "legitimate state and the de-facto state." Fares Soueid, secretary general of the ruling March 14 Forces, echoed this sentiment. "Nasrallah's speech proves Hizbullah insists there will be two armies and two states," he said. Suleiman's election came following a deal brokered in Qatar last week between the US-backed ruling coalition and Hizbullah, which is backed by Syria and Iran. US says Hizbullah's actions belie its words

WASHINGTON: Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's claim that his group does not want to control Lebanon may reveal how self-defeating its recent armed offensive in Beirut was, a senior US official said Tuesday. "I think their actions belie the statements," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters when asked to comment on Nasrallah's speech to his supporters in Lebanon on Monday. "They [Hizbullah] showed a willingness to use arms to kill their fellow citizens. Perhaps these words are a recognition of the real political damage done to Hizbullah," he said. "Any pretense of it as a liberation organization, or an organization designed to protect Lebanese from outsiders has really been torn away," McCormack added. The Hizbullah-led opposition, which won admiration in the past for fighting Lebanon's Southern neighbor Israel, staged a spectacular armed takeover of large swathes of mainly Sunni west Beirut earlier this month.
The assault angered many Lebanese but led to negotiations to end an 18-month political feud between the Hizbullah-led opposition and the Western-backed governing coalition that left the nation without a head of state for six months. - AFP

US Suggests Hizbullah Speech Shows Self-Inflicted Damage
Naharnet/Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah's claim that his group does not want to control Lebanon may reveal how self-defeating its recent armed offensive in Beirut was, a senior U.S. official said Tuesday. "I think their actions belie the statements," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters when asked to comment on Nasrallah's speech to his supporters in Lebanon on Monday. "They (Hizbullah) showed a willingness to use arms to kill their fellow citizens. Perhaps these words are a recognition of the real political damage done to Hizbullah," he said. "Any pretense of it as a liberation organization, or an organization designed to protect Lebanese from outsiders has really been torn away," McCormack added. The Hizbullah-led opposition, which won admiration in the past for fighting Lebanon's southern neighbor Israel, staged an armed takeover of large swathes of mainly Sunni west Beirut earlier this month.
The assault angered many Lebanese but led to negotiations to end an 18-month political feud between the Hizbullah-led opposition and the Western-backed ruling majority that left the nation without a head of state for six months. As part of a deal brokered in Qatar last week by the Arab League, General Michel Sleiman was elected by parliament Sunday in a first step towards national reconciliation. The following day, in a speech marking the eighth anniversary of Israel's pullout from south Lebanon after a two-decade occupation, Nasrallah pledged that his Shiite Muslim group would not use its weapons for political gains.
"Hizbullah does not want power over Lebanon, nor does it want to control Lebanon or govern the country," Nasrallah said. But he also warned that the new government should not try to use the army to tackle the weapons of Hizbullah or any of its political allies.(AFP) Beirut, 27 May 08, 20:21

Israeli Minister: Peace with Syria would Isolate Iran, Hizbullah
Naharnet/Any peace deal between Israel and Syria would dramatically change the face of the Middle East, in particular by isolating Iran, an Israeli cabinet minister said on Tuesday. "Peace with Syria would break up the current strategic situation because it would isolate Iran and silence Hizbullah," said Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer. "We are talking about a true peace, an end to hostilities, an opening of the borders, and Israel is ready to pay the price for such a peace and coexistence with Syria," he told public radio. Israel and Syria confirmed last week that they have launched indirect peace talks through Turkish mediation, a process that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said began in February 2007. The last round of peace talks broke down in 2000 over the fate of the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau which Israel seized in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and annexed in 1981 in a move not recognised by the international community. Ben Eliezer said he would visit the Golan on Tuesday to discuss with the local population its electricity and development needs. Opinion polls show that two thirds of Israelis are opposed to withdrawing from the Golan, which is now home to some 20,000 Jewish settlers and about 18,000 Syrians.
Ben Eliezer was also questioned about an eventual prisoner swap with Hizbullah. "I pray that Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser are still alive," he said, referring to two Israeli soldiers captured in July 2006 by Hizbullah in a deadly cross-border raid. "For two years, we have doing everything possible to bring them home, and we are ready to pay the price for that," Ben Eliezer said. Military radio has reported that Israel is prepared to free five Lebanese prisoners and return the remains of 10 Hizbullah fighters in exchange for Regev and Goldwasser. Among the prisoners who could be freed is Samir Kantar who was sentenced in 1980 to 542 years in prison for killing an Israeli civilian and his daughter as well as a police officer in an attack that shocked Israel, the radio said.(AFP) Beirut, 27 May 08, 20:11

Michel Sleiman and Tough Choices
Elias Harfouch

Al-Hayat - 26/05/08//
Here we are, finally, witnessing the first day of President General Michel Sleiman's term in office. This "miracle" was unlikely had the Doha Accord not managed to hold back the two conflicting camps from slipping further toward full confrontation. This, however, was not free of charge. As price, the side that took to the streets against Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government obtained the conditions that it had been demanding for 18 months, especially the right to veto inside the new cabinet, protecting its arms from domestic accountability with a cover from the content of the agreement which calls for refraining from any future use of arms to achieve political gains.
Yet, implementing the provisions of the Doha Accord both on the ground and in the political sense is a violation of this very provision as it recognizes the consequences resulting from the use of arms to achieve political objectives. Were it not for this use of arms, described by Sayyid Hassan Nasrrallah as a use of arms intended to defend arms, the Siniora government would not have backed off its two resolutions, nor would the consequences of this decision for the government and its political supporters have taken place.
The other provision of the Doha Accord that pertains to extending the authority of the state on all its territories and over its relationship with all armed groups, on the other hand, will be no less suspicious when the time for implementation comes than the provision that discusses the use of arms. Hezbollah's leaders did not hesitate to clarify their position over their right to keep their arms, a matter that Nasrallah is expected to confirm in his speech today. Sheikh Naim Qassim, the deputy secretary general of Hezbollah had already said that Hezbollah's weapons still maintained a defensive function after the liberation to prevent Israel from returning since the Israeli project for Lebanon is not over yet. Amal Movement clarified further by adding that the resistance was still an urgent Lebanese need against Israeli ambitions.
Hence, the components of the time-bomb that is ready to explode at any time are in place, inherited by President Michel Sleiman at the beginning of his term. It is a bomb that is intended to keep the new era and its president captive to the rationale of Hezbollah and its supporters which claims that the state can maintain full sovereignty over its territories, in political decision-making, and with respect to arms and war under one condition: When Hezbollah realizes, based on the tests it puts the state through every now and then, that the state is capable or qualified to do so. Even obtaining the right to veto cabinet decisions, a unique and dangerous precedent in any democratic system, dos not guarantee Hezbollah's subordination to political decisions.
What makes Sleiman's position more precarious is that he steps into the new settlement on a politically weak platform as his share is limited to no more than three out of thirty ministers, even when the agreement on his nomination and election enjoyed national consensus on his person and on the fact that his rise to the presidency constitutes an opportunity to get the country out of the dark tunnel. This situation is unprecedented in comparison to the state of previous presidents at the beginning of their terms since the agreement over them, foreign in most cases, delegated to them significant power to be in control of the political decision at the expense of the interests of different and conflicting currents.
This state leaves the new president with one of two choices. The first choice is that of coexistence with the question of arms and its consequences on the ground on the basis that coexistence is more beneficial than confrontation. General Sleiman adopted this settlement in the last confrontations as he had done as army commander through his cooperation with the resistance in the South, a cooperation that extended far beyond the implementation of Resolution 1701. Such a choice, if adopted by the new president, will lead to comparing the Doha Accord to the famous Cairo Agreement with respect to legitimizing other arms alongside the legitimate arms of the state under the pretext of settlement and the desire to avoid confrontation. That experience proved that its only accomplishment was postponing the explosion for a later date. The second choice is that of living in the shade of the nation and state in every sense, described by Sleiman yesterday as one of the slogans of his era. The state is expected to be capable of exercising its authority in a manner that differs from what was seen in the previous phase, whenever the interests of the nation and the majority of citizens demands, and regardless of the desires and commitments of a few

'Prisoner swap possible in 'opportune' regional situation'
By BRENDA GAZZAR -Jerusalem Post
A new political and regional climate makes the time ripe for a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hizbullah, a Lebanese parliamentarian told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
"There is a regional climate that is leaning toward a calming-down [tahadiyeh] that is helping to achieve some solutions. Among them was the Doha agreement," said Elie Aoun of Walid Jumblatt's Democratic Gathering Party. "If there [had not been] a helpful regional climate, the Doha agreement would not have been achieved."
Thus "the situation is more opportune" for a prisoner exchange, he said.
The breakthrough Doha agreement, brokered by Arab League mediators in Qatar earlier this month, ended an 18-month political crisis between the ruling coalition and the opposition and was signed in the wake of Lebanon's worst internal fighting since the 1975-90 civil war.
Several regional players - including Israel, Syria, Iraq and Iran - have a desire today for a calming of tensions, he said. It is this same climate, Aoun said, that is "helping the achievement of an agreement concerning the captives that are in Israeli prisons."
It is also what has allowed indirect negotiations to take place between Israel and Syria, as well as Egyptian mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas and an easing of tensions in Iraq.
Media reports have indicated this week that a prisoner swap between Israel and Hizbullah is close, and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah has also suggested a deal is near.
Based on Nasrallah's fiery speech Monday night in Beirut, Aoun believed it was certain that negotiations between Israel and Hizbullah over a prisoner exchange "will soon lead to a tangible result."
Nasrallah "wouldn't be able to speak in this way if he didn't have information" that indicated that, he said.
Hizbullah considers the prisoner issue to "be a big achievement that the resistance is achieving in a peaceful way," Aoun said. "This gives the resistance a push and continuity in the Lebanese arena at the current time."
At least one observer agreed that a deal on a prisoner swap could be struck, since the Doha agreement was a "regional unblocking of the Lebanese situation, and this may mean that other issues will also follow."
However, others were more cautious about the likelihood of an exchange in the near future, despite recent media reports suggesting that a deal was close and Nasrallah's promise that Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails would soon come home.
"I'm very skeptical about any indications in the media of an imminent deal," a Beirut-based Western journalist told the Post, noting that such reports often have not come to fruition in the past. "I think Nasrallah raised a swap mainly because he often does in his big public speeches. The speech [Monday] night was partly about the resistance and the reason why he thinks Lebanon needs to retain resistance against Israel. A component of that is to win back Lebanese detainees. He wasn't necessarily signaling that a deal was imminent."
Nasrallah, he added, was trying to reassure the Lebanese people that the resistance was geared toward protecting Lebanon against Israeli aggression and had nothing to do with Hizbullah "taking power for power's sake" in Lebanon. Hizbullah officials said they were responding to the Lebanese government's decision to outlaw the Shi'ite party's communications network and oust an airport security chief close to it.
In his speech on Monday, Nasrallah put everyone on notice in Lebanon that Hizbullah's primary concern was the liberation of the Shaba farms from Israeli control and "making sure that the discussion of Hizbullah arms and its role should be within that framework," said Prof. Judith Harik of Matn University in Beirut.
Nasrallah also warned against any attempts to disarm the Shi'ite party and emphasized that any defense strategy should be framed against Israel as Lebanon's sole enemy.
With Nasrallah saying in his speech that Hizbullah allowed no one to dictate its actions, it was signaling greater independence and strength to supporters and foes alike, Harik added. Although many see the organization as a puppet of Iran, it has made significant financial strides to lessen its dependency on the country, including establishing a micro-credit organization that has amassed large funds that are used in part to sustain its network of social services, she said.
"Hizbullah is restating its position that its role in Lebanon and the fight against Israel will continue - and basically, in that respect, that the US strategy to confront and weaken Hizbullah has failed miserably," she said. "The main message was that Hizbullah is here to stay."