LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 31/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 11,25-30. At that time Jesus said in reply, "I give praise to you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, for although you have hidden these things from the wise and the learned you have revealed them to the childlike. Yes, Father, such has been your gracious will. All things have been handed over to me by my Father. No one knows the Son except the Father, and no one knows the Father except the Son and anyone to whom the Son wishes to reveal him. Come to me, all you who labor and are burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am meek and humble of heart; and you will find rest for your selves. For my yoke is easy, and my burden light."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Lebanon's Man in the Muddle- By Amir Taheri 30/05/08
Back to before-By: Hanady Salman -Al-Ahram Weekly 30/05/08
U.S.-Iran regional power plays shift-By Scott Peterson -The Christian Science Monitor 30/05/08
Lebanon needs a Cabinet, not a new forum for reckless rhetoric- The Daily Star 30/05/08
As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon-By Joschka Fischer 30/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 30/08

Tug-of-War over Cabinet Gets Underway-Naharnet

U.S. Homeland Security Chief: Hizbullah Greater Threat than Qaida-Naharnet

Sarkozy to Upgrade Relations with Syria for its Lebanon Role-Naharnet

Iraq's President Urges Nasrallah Not to Meddle in Iraqi Affairs-Naharnet
Tourism Phoenix Rises again in Lebanon-Naharnet
Iranian-Lebanese Forces Dispute Over Reports of Preparations to Assassinate Saniora-Naharnet
UNIFIL Marks Peacekeepers Day-Naharnet
German Foreign Minister Due in Beirut-Naharnet
SSNP: Saniora Designation Provocative-Naharnet
Nicola Wants the Emir of Qatar to Dismiss Saniora-Naharnet
Syria Accused Again of Killing Hariri-Naharnet
Hizbullah Ready to Discuss Defense Strategy, Not to Give Up Resistance-Naharnet
Hariri: How Would they Remove the Blood Spilled in Beirut?-Naharnet
The prospect of a wider peace-Economist

Damascus source: Israel, Syria making progress in talks-Ha'aretz

Bahrain Names Jewish Woman as Ambassador to U.S.-Naharnet

Cherry-picking time-Ha'aretz

France's Sarkozy praises Syria's Assad in call-media-San Diego Union Tribune

France's Sarkozy Resumes Contact With Syria-Voice of America

Hezbollah says ready to discuss defense strategy but not give up ...Xinhua

Siniora meets former premiers ahead of cabinet consultations- The Daily Star

EU says Union for the Mediterranean to benefit Lebanon-The Daily Star
Registrar for Hariri tribunal 'keen' to set up shop in The Hague within weeks-The Daily Star
'Nothing the White House can do to stop it:' 109 countries agree to ban cluster bombs-The Daily Star

'It's time for Christians in Beirut to regain their rights-The Daily Star
Officials make show of fighting piracy-The Daily Star

Lebanon's gross public debt reaches $43.2 billion-The Daily Star

UNIFIL remembers all its fallen troops on Peacekeeper Day-The Daily Star
Beirut all for second edition of Run for Peace-The Daily Star

Lebanese take part in international effort to clean up Mediterranean coast-The Daily Star
'Values and norms:' Livni tightens screws on Olmert-AFP

Tug-of-War over Cabinet Gets Underway
Naharnet/A political tug-of-war kicked off Friday between the ruling majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition over how to divide up cabinet portfolios in a new national unity government. Reports circulated that Hizbullah could give one cabinet post to a non-Shiite opposition figure. In return, Hizbullah wants the majority to hold one Shiite seat. The opposition in a statement also supported an offer made by Islamic scholar Fathi Yakan who suggested the "need to appoint a Sunni opposition figure from Beirut … to defend the interests of the citizens of the capital." "It is not acceptable to restrict representation of the capital (Beirut) to one party," Yakan has said.
Other opposition sources said Hizbullah tends toward naming two non-Shiite cabinet ministers – a Sunni and a Druze.
Meanwhile, leaders from the ruling March 14 coalition were preoccupied all day Thursday with consultations among the various pro-government parliamentary blocs in an effort to pick 16 names that would represent the majority in the new government.
According to March 14 sources, cabinet seats were going to be divided up as follows:
- Six Sunni ministers: Fouad Saniora, Mohammed Safadi, Mohammed Qabbani and Samir al-Jisr in addition to two of these three names -- Jamal al-Jarrah, Hassan al-Sabaa or Ahmed Fatfat.
- Three Maronite ministers: Jihad Azour, Butros Harb and Joe Sarkis.
- Three Druze ministers: Ghazi Aridi, Akram Shehayeb and Wael Abu Faour.
- Two Greek Orthodox ministers: Farid Makari and Atef Majdalani or Tareq Mitri.
- One Catholic minister: Michel Mkattaf.
- One Armenian minister: Jean Oghassabian.
Meanwhile, the following names were being circulated by some opposition sources:
- Two Maronite seats: Gebran Bassil and Nabil Nicola.
- Orthodox seat: Issam Abu Jamra.
- Catholic seat: Elias Skaff
- Armenian seat: Hagop Pakradounian.
Sources said the Shiite seats await the majority's response. They were likely to be Ali Hasan Khalil, Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh and Jihad Murtada, in addition to two or three names that would represent Hizbullah – Mohammed Fneish and Hussein Hajj Hasan. The third was yet to be decided.
While the majority was reportedly not willing to give up the justice, finance, education, labor and telecommunications ministries, the opposition purportedly wants the labor, public works and social affairs ministries in addition to a key ministry – either finance or defense.
Skaff was also said to be after the agriculture ministry. Beirut, 30 May 08, 11:03

U.S. Homeland Security Chief: Hizbullah Greater Threat than Qaida
Naharnet/U.S. Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff has warned that Hizbullah "makes al-Qaida look like a minor league team," and poses the greatest threat to national security. "Someone described Hizbullah like the A-team of terrorists in terms of capabilities, in terms of range of weapons they have, in terms of internal discipline," Chertoff told FOX News Thursday. "To be honest, they make al-Qaida look like a minor league team. "They have been more disciplined, and they've been in some senses more restrained in the kinds of attacks they carry out ... in recent years, but that's not something we can take for granted," he warned. Chertoff, speaking before the opening of a two-day security conference in Jerusalem, also warned of the threat of a terrorist smuggling a bomb aboard a passenger airplane. "I don't think we're really worried about hijacking because we've put a lot of measures in place like a locked cockpit door, flight deck officers who have weapons and the air marshals," Chertoff told FOX News. "So the next threat becomes the bomb. Something that either a person takes on board themselves or smuggles into the cargo," he said. Nine countries are participating in the Jerusalem conference, including Britain, Spain and Italy. Beirut, 30 May 08, 08:08

Sarkozy to Upgrade Relations with Syria for its Lebanon Role
Naharnet/French President Nicolas Sarkozy praised Syrian President Bashar Assad's efforts to facilitate inter-Lebanese dialogue in Doha and bring it to success by the election of President Michel Suleiman. The official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) said Sarkozy made the remark in a telephone call to Assad.
Sarkozy, according to the report, expressed his wish to upgrade relations with Syria. He also said France supports Syria's efforts to regain its rights, adding Paris is ready to back the peace process in the Middle East, according to the SANA report. Beirut, 29 May 08, 18:51

Iraq's President Urges Nasrallah Not to Meddle in Iraqi Affairs
Naharnet/Iraqi President Jalal Talbani urged Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah not to meddle in Iraqi affairs. "Nasrallah has no right to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs just as we have no right to interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs," Talbani stressed. Talbani's remarks came during a lengthy meeting with the press. Nasrallah, who expressed his support for the Iraqi resistance against U.S. forces, had urged Iraqis to adopt what he called a "liberation strategy." Beirut, 30 May 08, 12:32

Tourism Phoenix Rises again in Lebanon
Naharnet/In 2006 it was the Hizbullah-Israel war, in 2007 it was the struggle against Fatah al-Islam militants in the north, and this year internal sectarian clashes dragged Lebanon to the brink of a new civil war. For three consecutive seasons, tourism revenue, once the country's lifeblood, was reduced to a trickle by violence and political uncertainty. But now it is receiving a much-needed transfusion. Reservations have begun pouring into this land of sun, sea and mountains, and a bumper tourism season is predicted after years of instability. There was a collective sigh of relief as calm returned last week after Lebanese leaders came to an agreement in Qatar that ended a long-running political crisis. "The ink on the Doha agreement wasn't dry yet and the phones were ringing off the hook. From the Gulf, from Europe, from everywhere, we're booked up until the end of the summer," said Mary Shwairy, head of public relations at the upscale Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut.
"Tourism is bouncing back in a big way -- short stays, long stays, conferences, weddings of returning Lebanese who live abroad," she added.
Caretaker Tourism Minister Joseph Sarkis said he expects this year's figures to be the best for years. "By the end of April we had only received 280,000 visitors because of the security situation. Now we expect between 1.3 and 1.6 million -- the same projected figure for summer 2006 which had seemed to be the most promising," he told AFP. "In 2006, about 4.4 billion US dollars in tourism revenue was projected. Only about 1.5 billion came in," Sarkis added.
That summer's tourism prospects were shattered by Israel's 34-day war in July and August -- prime holiday months -- against Hizbullah.
The vicious conflict between the army and Islamist militants in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared north of the country's second city of Tripoli killed tourism in 2007. That added to a prolonged political crisis between the ruling bloc and the opposition, and culminated in clashes that erupted on May 7 this year, leaving 65 people dead and much of mostly Muslim west Beirut in Hizbullah hands.It could have been the final straw for tourism.
But the May 21 agreement in Qatar restored calm. It led to the election of Michel Suleiman as president, a post that had been vacant for more than five months because of political squabbling.It also saw the lifting of an opposition sit-in that had throttled business life in downtown Beirut for a year and a half.
Since the Doha agreement there has been "a 30 percent increase in the number of expected tourists compared with last year. Hotels are hiring extra staff and the airlines are adding extra flights," Sarkis said. "Forty percent of the tourists are Arab, 25 percent are European and the rest are of various nationalities," he added.
"Of the Arabs, 40 percent are Jordanian who come in large numbers since visa requirements were waived three years ago. They are followed by Saudis, Kuwaitis, Iraqis and Emiratis," he said.
Sarkis said Lebanese expatriates spend large sums of money when they return to the homeland. "Nature and a love of life are Lebanon's greatest attractions. The Arabs come for the refreshing climate, night clubs and restaurants... Europeans for the archaeological sites" such as Baalbek or Tyre. In another sign of recovery kicking in, the popular Beiteddine and Baalbek music festivals, silenced for the past two summers, will return this year in July. The Beiteddine and Baalbek festival organizers are also co-sponsoring a concert by Lebanese-born pop sensation Mika in Beirut on July 27. Popular summer destinations in Lebanon include the mountain towns of Aley, Bhamdun, Brummana and Beit Mery. In winter the ski resorts of Faraya and Faqra are thronged with visitors.
Aley, which saw heavy fighting in early May, is now preparing to double its population over the tourism season. "Restaurants and cafes that were closed for two years have reopened in record time over the last few days," municipal official Issam Ebeid told AFP. "Aley gets as many tourists as its 40,000 inhabitants -- mostly Qataris, Saudis and Kuwaitis," he said. "But the season will actually be longer than the three summer months because many Arabs and expatriates own homes here."
Ebeid cited property prices as an indication of the return rush of visitors. "Prices have soared by about a third since the Doha agreement," he said. Before the accord was reached "we were expecting fighters armed to the teeth, but fortunately now we welcome tourists with flowers."(AFP) Beirut, 30 May 08, 12:28

Iranian-Lebanese Forces Dispute Over Reports of Preparations to Assassinate Saniora
Naharnet/Iranian predictions of the assassination of Prime Minister Fouad Saniora to use his death for political gain in the 2009 parliamentary elections drew resentment from some Lebanese politicians. The report by Iran's semi-official Fars news agency quoted "observers" of Lebanese politics as saying that the motive behind efforts toward returning Saniora to the premiership "is to pave the way for his assassination and then use his blood to (achieve political gain) in the coming elections."The sources hinted that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea could have an interest in killing Saniora "just as he used martyr Rafik Hariri's blood."
Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra quickly responded to Fars' accusations, saying he demands to refer this issue to both Lebanese and international judiciaries.
Zahra urged Saniora to "be cautious," and called on Lebanese security forces to take Fars' report "seriously."
"It has been known that each time a Lebanese personality is assassinated, fingers are pointed at us – Lebanese Forces or March 14 Forces," Zahra said in a statement. "This agency (Fars), just as Sham Press and others, is known for making up excuses (to launch) security operations that are being prepared by its own groups," Zahra added. Beirut, 30 May 08, 08:37

UNIFIL Marks Peacekeepers Day
Naharnet/The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon has observed the annual International Day of U.N. Peacekeepers on Thursday, which also marks the 60th anniversary of peacekeeping by the world body. "Today, as ever, we in UNIFIL remain firmly committed to the implementation of our mandated tasks, in support of the people of south Lebanon and in close cooperation with the Lebanese armed forces," UNIFIL Commander Major-General Claudio Graziano said Thursday.
"Peacekeepers engage with the local community on a daily basis and always try to do their utmost to assist and protect the local population; at the same time UNIFIL's existence would have been hard without the strong support of the people of the south. This symbiotic co-existence has been a source of pride for UNIFIL peacekeepers," he said. Troops representing the 26 different national contingents that make up UNIFIL attended the ceremony held at their headquarters in the southern coastal town of Naqoura. Graziano and Brigadier General Elias Zaarab, representing the Lebanese army, each laid wreaths at the UNIFIL cenotaph in memory of the fallen peacekeepers. Earlier this year, UNIFIL marked 30 years of its establishment by U.N. Security Council Resolution 425 on 19 March 1978.
International Day of U.N. peacekeepers was established in 2002 by a General Assembly resolution designating 29 May – the date in 1948 when the first U.N. peacekeeping mission began operations – to pay tribute to all men and women who have served and continue to serve in UN peacekeeping operations for their high level of professionalism, dedication and courage, and to honor the memory of those who have lost their lives in the cause of peace. Beirut, 30 May 08, 09:55

German Foreign Minister Due in Beirut
Naharnet/German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Thursday he will visit Beirut this week for talks on the political stability in Lebanon.
Steinmeier hailed the election of new Lebanese President Michel Suleiman Sunday which he said "created the conditions for rebuilding the country" after years of strife. Steinmeier told the Bundestag lower house of parliament in a debate marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the state of Israel that the trip beginning Saturday would take in Beirut, Jerusalem and Ramallah. He will return to Berlin Wednesday. He also welcomed indirect talks between Israel and Syria and said visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan would brief him on his knowledge of the discussions in Berlin Friday. Germany has played a key role in reviving efforts by the so-called Middle East quartet -- grouping the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States -- to help bring about a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians. Berlin has invited foreign ministers from the Middle East, Europe, the United States and several other countries to a conference on June 24 on efforts to assist the Palestinians to build up their police forces and justice system as steps toward creating a viable state.(AFP)
Beirut, 29 May 08, 19:14

SSNP: Saniora Designation Provocative
Naharnet/The Syrian Social National Party (SSNP) said designating Fouad Saniora to form the new cabinet is a "provocative" move by the majority.
Such a move, according to the SSNP statement, "does not reflect the spirit of the Doha Accord that is based on consensus."It said the majority, by nominating Saniora, targeted the positive atmosphere that prevailed after the election of President Michel Suleiman. The pro-Syrian party warned against any attempt to "ignore the right of the resistance in liberating the occupied lands." Beirut, 29 May 08, 17:46

Nicola Wants the Emir of Qatar to Dismiss Saniora
Naharnet/MP Nabil Nicola of the Change and Reform Bloc said Thursday that he asked the Emir of Qatar to intervene to prevent Premier-designate Fouad Saniora from forming the new cabinet. Nicola said designating Saniora was a "coup against the Doha Accord," the terms of which did not include any agreement on a prime minister. He said the Hizbullah-led opposition would hold a meeting later Thursday to adopt a decision regarding the designation of Saniora.
"The cabinet would be on a collision course if headed by Saniora," Nicola said. Beirut, 29 May 08, 17:25

Syria Accused Again of Killing Hariri
Naharnet/Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri renewed accusation to Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime of killing his father, ex-Premier Rafik Hariri.
"I would accept whatever the international tribunal would decide," Hariri said in an interview with an Italian newspaper.
"What I know is that no one in Syria can do such a thing without the knowledge of the president and senior officials of the regime," Hariri added.
In answering a question as to when would Hizbullah be disarmed, Hariri said: "The civil war in Lebanon persisted for 18 years and no one emerged victorious … everything should happen through dialogue, not through weapons." Hizbullah, according to Hariri, "did not achieve victory in Beirut. We have an election law that they do not approve of, we have a president whom they always opposed.""Their militiamen should have been withdrawn and they should pledge not to deploy them against us again," Hariri said. Hariri said he has confidence in President Michel Suleiman.
Told that Suleiman was appointed Army Commander during the Syrian era, Hariri said: "Even my father was premier during the Syrian era, but despite that they killed him." Beirut, 29 May 08, 17:12

Hizbullah Ready to Discuss Defense Strategy, Not to Give Up Resistance
Naharnet/Hizbullah's second in command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said Thursday that the party is ready to discuss a national defense strategy, but would not give up "our resistance and our weapons.""If we give up our weapons, then who would protect us and protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression?" Qassem asked in a televised interview."We agree to a defense strategy that enables our army to protect Lebanon and prevent Israeli aggression. Then, the weapons issue would be settled within this defense strategy," Qassem added. Qassem claimed Hizbullah does not use its weapons to settle political differences, but "it is the right of the resistance to defend itself if it was attacked." Beirut, 29 May 08, 16:44

Hariri: How Would they Remove the Blood Spilled in Beirut?
Naharnet/Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri said the latest speech by Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah did not help calm down the situation, asking how would they remove effects of the blood that had been spilled? Hariri, in an interview with BBC Arabic service, said: "The government and March 14 forces had enough courage to withdraw the two decisions (rejected by Hizbullah). However, the question is: How would they remove the blood that had been spilled in Beirut?"He said nominating Fouad Saniora to form the new cabinet was meant to be "the beginning of reconciliation. Intentions towards this reconciliation would be obvious during efforts to form the cabinet.""Contacts with the opposition reveal that they are ready to facilitate" the cabinet formation, Hariri said.
The Mustaqbal Movement leader said he was not in direct contact with Hizbullah. "We have indirect contacts with Hizbullah, but we are in contact with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Eventually, this would lead to reconciliation," he added. Asked whether Hizbullah's military victory in Beirut would result in a political victory for the party, Hariri said: "This would not happen." Hariri said that dialogue would be launched after the formation of the forthcoming cabinet, noting that the Arab League would be represented during the dialogue "during which intentions of all parties would become clear." Beirut, 29 May 08, 16:28

Bahrain Names Jewish Woman as Ambassador to U.S.
Naharnet/Bahrain's king has appointed a woman believed to be the Arab world's first Jewish ambassador as the country's envoy to Washington.
Lawmaker Houda Nonoo said she was proud to serve her country "first of all as a Bahraini," adding she was not chosen for the post because of her religion.
"It is a great honor to have been appointed as the first female ambassador to the United States of America and I am looking forward to meeting this new challenge," Nonoo told The Associated Press by telephone. The Wednesday decree issued by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa and reported by the official Bahrain News Agency had not specified where Nonoo, a 43-year-old mother of two boys, would be posted. But her appointment to the U.S. ambassadorship was rumored for months. Bahrain — a pro-Western island nation with Sunni rulers and a Shiite majority — is a close U.S. ally and hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. It has about 50 Jewish citizens among a population of roughly half a million people. Nonoo has served as legislator in Bahrain's all-appointed 40-member Shura Council for three years. Nonoo replaced her cousin, who held the Shura Council seat for four years. A businesswoman who lives both in Bahrain and London, Nonoo also is the first Jewish woman to head a local rights organization, the Bahrain Human Rights Watch.
Jews migrated to Bahrain in the 19th century, mostly from Iran and Iraq. Their numbers increased early in the 20th century but decreased after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, when many left for Israel, the U.S. and Europe. Jews keep a low profile in Bahrain, working mostly in banks, commercial and trade companies and retail. There is also a synagogue and a private Jewish cemetery there. At the height of the Arab-Israeli war, the synagogue was attacked and torched by angry Muslims. The structure was later refurbished. Bahrain has no diplomatic relations with Israel. In 1969, an official Israeli delegation visited Bahrain but protesters burned the Israeli flag in a large street demonstration at the time. In 2006, after Bahrain signed the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., Manama closed down a government office that endorsed a boycott of Israeli goods.(AP) Beirut, 30 May 08, 05:35

'It's time for Christians in Beirut to regain their rights'
Daily Star staff-Friday, May 30, 2008
BEIRUT: The head of the Union for Lebanon, Massoud al-Ashkar, said it was high time for the Christians in Beirut "to regain" their rights "after almost 18 years of marginalization.""The parliamentary electoral law adopted in Doha grants the Christians some of their lost rights but we can't say it is the ideal or the best law," Ashkar said following a meeting with Beirut Orthodox Archbishop Elias Aoude. "Beirut's Christians constitute some 40 percent of [the capital's] population and it's time they recover some of their lost rights after almost 18 years of alienation; so as to restore balance in Beirut and ensure true partnership in the capital," Ashkar added. A deal mediated by Qatar this month ended the standoff between Lebanon's ruling coalition and an opposition alliance led by Hizbullah.
The Doha agreement secured the opposition's demand for veto power in a new cabinet, the adoption of a district-based electoral law and paved the way for the election on Sunday of President Michel Suleiman. - The Daily Star

As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon
By Joschka Fischer
Daily Star-Friday, May 30, 2008
As a result of misguided American policy, the threat of another military confrontation hangs like a dark cloud over the Middle East. The United States' enemies have been strengthened, and Iran - despite being branded as a member of the so-called "axis of evil" - has been catapulted into regional hegemony. Iran could never have achieved this on its own, certainly not in such a short time.
A hitherto latent rivalry between Iran and Israel thus has been transformed into an open struggle for dominance in the Middle East. The result has been the emergence of some surprising, if not bizarre, alliances: Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and the American-backed, Shiite-dominated Iraq are facing Israel, Saudi Arabia, and most of the other Sunni Arab states, all of which feel existentially threatened by Iran's ascendance.
The danger of a major confrontation has been heightened further by a series of factors: persistently high oil prices, which have created new financial and political opportunities for Iran; the possible defeat of the West and its regional allies in proxy wars in Gaza and Lebanon; and the United Nations Security Council's failure to induce Iran to accept even a temporary freeze of its nuclear program.
Iran's nuclear program is the decisive factor in this equation, for it threatens irreversibly the region's strategic balance. That Iran - a country whose president never tires of calling for Israel's annihilation and that threatens Israel's northern and southern borders through its massive support of proxy wars waged by Hizbullah and Hamas - might one day have missiles with nuclear warheads is Israel's worst security nightmare. Politics is not just about facts, but also about perceptions. Whether or not a perception is accurate is beside the point, because it nonetheless leads to decisions.
This applies in particular when the perception concerns what the parties consider to be threats to their very existence. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats of annihilation are taken seriously in Israel because of the trauma of the Holocaust. And most Arab governments share the fear of a nuclear Iran. Earlier this month, Israel celebrated its 60th birthday, and US President George W. Bush went to Jerusalem to play a leading part in the commemoration. But those who had expected that his visit would mainly be about the stalled negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians were bitterly disappointed. Bush's central topic, including his speech to Israel's Knesset, was Iran. Bush had promised to bring the Middle East conflict closer to a resolution before the end of his term this year. But his final visit to Israel seemed to indicate that his objective was different: he seemed to be planning, together with Israel, to end the Iranian nuclear program - and to do so by military, rather than by diplomatic, means.
Anyone following the press in Israel during the anniversary celebrations and listening closely to what was said in Jerusalem did not have to be a prophet to understand that matters are coming to a head. Consider the following:
First, "stop the appeasement!" is a demand raised across the political spectrum in Israel - and what is meant is the nuclear threat emanating from Iran.
Second, while Israel celebrated, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted as saying that a life-and-death military confrontation was a distinct possibility.
Third, the outgoing commander of the Israeli Air Force declared that the air force was capable of any mission, no matter how difficult, to protect the country's security. The destruction of a Syrian nuclear facility last year, and the lack of any international reaction to it, were viewed as an example for the coming action against Iran. Fourth, the Israeli wish list for US arms deliveries, discussed with the American president, focused mainly on the improvement of the attack capabilities and precision of the Israeli Air Force.
Fifth, diplomatic initiatives and UN sanctions when it comes to Iran are seen as hopelessly ineffective.
And sixth, with the approaching end of the Bush presidency and uncertainty about his successor's policy, the window of opportunity for Israeli action is seen as potentially closing.
The last two factors carry special weight. While Israeli military intelligence is on record as saying that Iran is expected to cross the red line on the path to nuclear power between 2010 and 2015 at the earliest, the feeling in Israel is that the political window of opportunity to attack is now, during the last months of Bush's presidency.
Although it is acknowledged in Israel that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would involve grave and hard-to-assess risks, the choice between acceptance of an Iranian bomb and an attempt at its military destruction, with all the attendant consequences, is clear. Israel won't stand by and wait for matters to take their course.
The Middle East is drifting toward a new great confrontation in 2008. Iran must understand that without a diplomatic solution in the coming months, a dangerous military conflict is very likely to erupt. It is high time for serious negotiations to begin.
The most recent offer by the six powers - the UN Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany - is on the table, and it goes very far in accommodating Iran's interests. The decisive question, however, will be whether it will be possible to freeze the Iranian nuclear program for the duration of the negotiations to avoid a military confrontation before these negotiations are completed. Should this newest attempt fail, things will soon get serious. Deadly serious.
***Joschka Fischer, Germany's foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, led
Germany's Green Party for nearly 20 years. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate-Institute for Human Sciences (c) (www.project-syndicate.org

Siniora meets former premiers ahead of cabinet consultations
Gemayel calls for friendly and balanced ties with Syria
By Hussein Abdallah -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 30, 2008
BEIRUT: Prime Minister Fouad Siniora paid a number of customary visits on Thursday, one day ahead of the mandatory parliamentary consultations that will precede the formation of Lebanon's new cabinet. Siniora met former premiers Omar Karami, Salim Hoss, Najib Mikati, Rasheed Solh, Amine Hafez and Michel Aoun. After a 45-minute meeting Aoun, who is also the leader of the opposition Free Patriotic Movement, Siniora told reporters that the talks were positive. Aoun became Lebanon's only Christian prime minister in 1988 after he was asked by former President Amine Gemayel to head an interim government as a result of the Parliament's failure to meet and elect a new president at the end of Gemayel's term.
Before the constitutional amendments that were introduced by the Taif Accord in 1989, Lebanon's president had the privilege of handing over power to an interim cabinet if faced with vacuum at the end of his term. After Taif, the existing cabinet assumes presidential powers in the event of a vacuum.
After receiving Siniora, Hoss called on all parties to cooperate for the interest of the country and the people. Karami told reporters after his meeting with Siniora that the premier was extending his hand to all parties and vowing to address all problems with a spirit of consensus. Siniora also contacted Muslim and Christian spiritual leaders on Thursday in advance of the consultations that are due to start on Friday afternoon. The next cabinet will include 16 ministers for the parliamentary majority, 11 for the opposition and three for the president.  In a statement on Thursday, the opposition said that the Sunni opposition in Beirut should be represented by a minister in the new cabinet.
"The Sunni opposition in Beirut should be represented as it is not acceptable to cross out a big portion of the capital just because one party has managed to monopolize Beirut's seats in Parliament as a result of an unfair electoral law," the statement said, referring to parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri's sweeping victory in Beirut in the 2005 elections. The opposition's call was not expected to be well received by Hariri's Future Movement.
Meanwhile, in an interview with BBC Arabic television on Thursday, Hariri said that Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's recent speech has not helped calm the situation and ease tensions in the wake of violence earlier this month. Deadly clashes between opposition and pro-government militants killed at least 65 people and injured around 250 others. Asked whether he expected Nasrallah to apologize, Hariri said that he was waiting to hear a calm speech that conformed to the agreement that was reached by the rival parties in Doha. Hariri denied being involved in any direct talks with Hizbullah. "I am in continuous contact with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri ... there are indirect contacts with Hizbullah," he said.
Commenting on the deadly clashes, Hariri said that the government and the March 14 Forces had shown the courage to withdraw the two disputed decisions that triggered the violence. "The decisions were nothing but ink on paper, but my question to Hizbullah is how would they remove the blood that had been spilled in Beirut?" Hariri insisted Hizbullah can no longer reject a discussion of the group's weapons. Also on Thursday, Hizbullah's second in command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, told Orbit satellite television that Hizbullah was ready to discuss a defense strategy for Lebanon, but not to give up the resistance's arsenal.
"If we give up our weapons, then who would protect us and protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression?" Qassem asked. In other developments, President Michel Suleiman received politicians and diplomats at the Presidential Palace on Thursday, including US Charge d'Affaires Michel Sison, who confirmed that President George W. Bush had recently invited Suleiman to the United States. Sison said the US was certain that Lebanon would see peace and stability under Suleiman.
She added that the US was keen on providing military aid for the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Gemayel called on Thursday for rebuilding friendly and balanced ties with Syria. "Such ties should be built on the basis of mutual respect ... my late father Pierre Gemayel used to say: if your neighbor is fine, then you're fine too," Gemayel told Syrian television. "We should turn back the pages of our painful experience with Syria," he said. Gemayel stressed that Lebanon should not take part in any regional or international alliance and adopt a policy of positive neutrality. Commenting on the appointment of Siniora as prime minister, Gemayel said that the move should not be seen as a challenge to any party in Lebanon. He also pointed out that Siniora himself had called for opening a new page regarding Lebanese-Syrian relations.  Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Thursday he will visit Beirut this week for talks on the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and political stability in Lebanon. Steinmeier also hailed the recent election of Suleiman, saying it "created the conditions for rebuilding the country" after years of strife. German government spokes-man Ulrich Wilhelm said Chancellor Angela Merkel contacted Siniora on Thursday to congratulate him on his appointment as premier. - With AFP, additional reporting by Nafez Qawas

US presses IAEA to search for nuclear sites in Syria
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, May 30, 2008
WASHINGTON: The United States is pressing UN inspectors to broaden a search for secret nuclear sites in Syria to check if it has other hidden facilities beyond an alleged reactor destroyed by Israel, The Washington Post reported Thursday. US officials have given information on three suspect sites to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, which is negotiating with Syria for permission to conduct inspections in the country, the Post said, citing US government officials and Western diplomats. US officials want to know if the suspect sites were support facilities for the alleged Al-Kibar reactor, which Washington says was built with North Korean help, the daily said. Officials declined to describe the suspect sites or discuss how they were identified, the newspaper said.
Western governments have long wanted to identify possible locations for a facility in Syria that might have supplied fuel rods for a reactor, it said.
The Al-Kibar site, while described as nearly operational when it was bombed, had no clear source of uranium fuel needed for operation, the Post said, citing US intelligence officials and diplomats familiar with the site. The US government charges that the reactor, which was destroyed in an Israeli air raid on September 6, had a military purpose. Syria has denied the US allegations and has promised full cooperation with the UN watchdog. CIA Director Michael Hayden told the Post that the intelligence community's insight into Syria's nuclear ambitions had deepened since the Israeli raid.
"Do not assume that Al-Kibar exhausted our knowledge of Syrian efforts with regard to nuclear weapons," he was quoted as saying. "I am very comfortable - certainly with Al-Kibar and what was there, and what the intent was. It was the highest confidence level. And nothing since the attack last September has changed our mind." - AFP

'Values and norms:' Livni tightens screws on Olmert
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Daily Star staff-Friday, May 30, 2008
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: Israel's foreign minister and ruling Kadima Party number two challenged Ehud Olmert's leadership on Thursday, calling for an unprecedented primary amid demands that he quit as premier over graft suspicions. "Kadima should start preparing now for any possible scenario, including elections. I am a big believer in primaries," said Tzipi Livni, who is also deputy prime minister. "I believe most of the public should be involved in the election of the [party] leadership. This way we will be able to retrieve the public's support in Kadima," she told reporters in Occupied Jerusalem.
At no point, however, did Livni explicitly call for Olmert to step down. Kadima, founded hastily by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon before the March 2006 elections, does not have an internal mechanism for ousting a leader or holding primaries.
Israel has been abuzz with speculation about a snap election in late 2008 or early 2009. That began after a key ally in the ruling coalition, Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, joined calls for Olmert to step down over allegations he illegally received large sums of cash from a US financier.
Barak reiterated his message on Thursday: "The prime minister should take decisions, his party needs to take decisions. If they don't, we will make those decisions for them." Rina Mazliah, a political commentator with the privately run Channel 2 news, summed up the situation by saying: "Ehud Barak placed the gun on the table and Livni put the bullet down." As the pressure mounted, Attorney General Menahem Mazuz decided after a meeting with the state prosecution on Thursday to speed up the investigation, the Justice Ministry said. "We can't ignore recent days' events. The issue is not only legal, it is not only a criminal question," Livni said. "These are not the prime minister's personal issues. These are questions of values and norms we want to apply."
Olmert, whose term ends in late 2010, has said he had no intention of quitting, although an opinion poll on Thursday found that 70 percent of people surveyed thought he should go. If Olmert were to be indicted, he would be legally bound to step aside.
Olmert, 62, has denied any wrongdoing over the allegations that have been simmering since police first questioned him in the affair on May 2. He has, however, acknowledged receiving campaign donations. But experts say it will be difficult for him to focus on peace talks with the Palestinians and indirect negotiations with Syria while fighting for his own political survival. Opposition MPs have also claimed that the scandal-tainted premier lacks the moral authority to lead peace efforts that could shape the future of the Middle East. Olmert, who flies to Washington on Monday for a three-day visit and a meeting with US President George W. Bush, has asked Kadima MPs not to do anything until his return, Maariv newspaper reported.
Barak dropped his political bombshell a day after Jewish-American financier Morris Talansky testified before a Jerusalem court that he had given Olmert large amounts of cash stuffed into envelopes. Talansky said he had given Olmert at least $150,000 in the 15 years before he became prime minister in 2006, some of which might have been used to fund Olmert's taste for luxury goods. Olmert also faces three other inquiries into suspected corruption involving potential conflicts of interest, fraudulent property deals and abuse of power

EU says Union for the Mediterranean to benefit Lebanon
Daily Star staff-Friday, May 30, 2008
BEIRUT: The European Commission Delegation in Beirut said on Thursday that the recent adoption of proposals for the Union of the Mediterranean would benefit all participants of the Barcelona process, including Lebanon. In a statement issued on Thursday the commission said that it adopted on May 20 its proposals for upgrading relations with its Mediterranean partners through the "Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean."
Following the decision of the Spring European Council, Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner presented the outline of the structures of the Barcelona Process which aim at giving renewed vitality and visibility to the EU's relations with partners in the Mediterranean region. These structures include the setting up of a secretariat and the creation of a permanent committee of Euro-Mediterranean representatives.
The policy paper also outlines ideas for the kind of projects that would constitute visible and tangible efforts at improving the lives and livelihoods of the region's citizens. "This latest initiative underlines the EU's continued commitment to the Mediterranean region, an area of vital strategic importance in both political and economic terms," the commission's statement said. The statement added that the proposals contained in the policy paper would be presented at the inaugural summit of the Barcelona Process in Paris on July 13, 2008. "This is a pivotal moment for the EU and our Mediterranean Partners. The Barcelona Process has proven its value to build bridges between Mediterranean partners," said European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso. Barroso added that "it will take stronger political will, in both sides of the Mediterranean, to seize this opportunity to enhance understanding, peace and prosperity among all our nations, cultures and religions, for the benefit of our citizens." Ferrero-Waldner, however, said that the Barcelona Process "has its champions and critics."
Since its launch in 1995, the Barcelona Process has been the central instrument for Euro-Mediterranean relations, representing a partnership of 39 governments and over 750 million people. The EU states "the process has been the engine for movement toward peace, security and shared prosperity in a region where long-running conflicts and tenuous reform efforts have often impeded progress." Against this background the partnership provides a framework for continued dialogue, engagement and development. The European Commission has supported the Barcelona Process with the provision of over 16 billion euros ($24 billion) from its budget since 1995. "We are deeply committed to the Mediterranean region. Today's proposals underline that commitment, and our desire for a more coherent partnership based on co-ownership of the process," Ferrero-Waldner added.
According to the commission's statement, the present policy paper takes stock of the achievements of the Barcelona Process and envisages the new initiative to build on and reinforce these successes, while also acknowledging the shortcomings that have compromised more rapid development.
The statement added that projects are at the heart of the new initiative. The Commission has identified possible areas for projects that strive to promote growth, employment, regional cohesion and economic integration. These areas include energy and energy security, the environment, civil protection and transportation.
"The implementation of such projects will be dependent on the mobilization of additional funding outside the traditional existing budget allocations," the statement said. "Financial resources are expected to come from the private sector, international financial institutions and bilateral cooperation and contributions from EU member states and Mediterranean partners," it added

Lebanon's gross public debt reaches $43.2 billion
Daily Star staff-Friday, May 30, 2008
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Finance Ministry said Thursday that the budget deficit in the first three months of 2008 fell slightly thanks to higher revenues. But the ministry said the size of the gross public debt reached LL65.102 trillion ($43.2 billion), registering an increase of 2.74 percent over the level at the end of December 2007.
The ministry said that the total fiscal balance registered a deficit of LL812 billion compared to a deficit of LL993 billion in the same period of 2007.
"This improvement in the fiscal deficit is due to better total receipts [or revenues] of LL355 billion, which offset the LL174 billion increase in total payments," the ministry said in a statement. It added that the increase in total revenues was due to improvements in all types of revenues. "In fact, tax revenues were up by LL149 billion mainly due to the stronger performance of income taxes, taxes on property, domestic taxes on goods and services, and fiscal stamp fees - despite a deterioration in taxes on international trade, namely in the collection of excise duties on fuel due to rising international fuel prices," the statement said.
It added that that custom duties, tobacco and car excises have witnessed substantial rises in collection rates. Non-tax revenues also achieved an amelioration of LL36 billion as a result of higher transfers from Casino du Liban and the telecom surplus. It added that no transfers were recorded from Port of Beirut, the national lottery and th Banque du Liban for the first quarter of 2008. Finance minister Jihad Azour told The Daily Star the delays were the result of staffing changes and other technical issues and that the transfers were expected to be reflected in the next quarter

Lebanon needs a Cabinet, not a new forum for reckless rhetoric
By The Daily Star
Friday, May 30, 2008
Members of Lebanon's parliamentary majority and the opposition are about to start negotiations on who will represent them in the unity government agreed at Doha, and the way in which they proceed will tell all their constituents if this country's politicians have learned anything from the bitter experience of the past 18 months. Both the ruling March 14 camp and its March 8 rival include a variety of competent performers who can be trusted to put the national interest above pointless politicking. Unfortunately, each also has no shortage of rabble-rousers dedicated to nothing so much as petty partisanship. If the proposed ministers come from the latter ranks, it means that Doha was a lie.
The nominations will also serve as a harbinger of what to expect over the next 10 months or so as the two sides try to cohabitate in the run-up to parliamentary elections. Needless to say, there are many issues over which they disagree too strongly to get much accomplished, especially in so short a time. On dozens of other matters, though, it should be easy to put the people of Lebanon first and make sure that pressing problems are addressed with cogent solutions. From battling corruption and improving education to protecting the environment and attracting investment, there are plenty of policy areas where the rivals have more in common than they might think. That will not be enough to produce results, however, if individual ministers or groups thereof cannot be civil with one another.
For this reason, no party will do itself any favors by nominating those loudmouth standard-bearers whom it knows to be anathema for its would-be partners. The best-case scenario would be a lineup of technocrats, but there is also a middle ground between that breed and the troublemakers - on all sides - who did so much to prolong the impasse. If such miscreants are given a chance, they will do nothing but transform the general paralysis of the past year and a half to the Cabinet, thereby preventing the handling of some very urgent business.
Stranger coalitions than this one have been put together in other countries - and some have succeeded in holding the ship of state together until they were replaced by more ideologically coherent leaderships. The next few weeks will be a supreme test, therefore, of what each side really meant to accomplish by signing the Doha agreement. If the goal was to achieve an imperfect but desperately needed compromise that gives Lebanon sufficient breathing space, and to reduce tensions and take care of some long-overdue economic and sociopolitical housekeeping, we will know it very soon. On the other hand, if the aim was to create a new forum in which to engage in the usual shenanigans of point-scoring and mud-slinging, that will quickly be clear as well.
He may have failed to keep his team together the last time, but Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has the attitudinal capacity to distill moderation from opposite extremes, and the influence of the new president, Michel Suleiman, seems likely to seek precisely this sort of accommodation. Neither of them will be able to keep divisiveness locked away, though, if the Cabinet is stacked with demagogues - and once again, the average Lebanese will have been betrayed by his or her "leaders

Registrar for Hariri tribunal 'keen' to set up shop in The Hague within weeks
Robin Vincent will oversee construction of court premises
By Michael Bluhm
Daily Star staff-Friday, May 30, 2008
BEIRUT: Registrar Robin Vincent of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon will move into his office at the tribunal's seat in The Hague within the next six weeks, Vincent told The Daily Star on Thursday. "My aim is about four weeks ... but it might slip a week or two," Vincent said, adding that he would make the move with a staff of four or five core personnel. "I'm obviously quite keen to go."
Senior UN officials have repeatedly said Vincent's arrival in The Netherlands would represent a significant milestone in the formation of the tribunal, which should try suspects in the February 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and in other political killings or attempted killings from October 2004 to January this year. Vincent, who previously served as registrar in the Special Court for Sierra Leone, was appointed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on March 10 as registrar, a position which functions akin to the CEO but will not have any judicial authority.
In the next week Vincent plans to sign the lease for the former Dutch intelligence services building which will serve as the tribunal's headquarters, Vincent said. Once Vincent arrives in The Hague, renovation work can begin on the premises, including the construction of a courtroom and detention cells to hold the accused on days when trials are ongoing.
Dutch Foreign Ministry officials have said the refurbishing should last about a year, a logistical delay ensuring that trials cannot begin before mid-2009; Vincent said he was eager to commence the reconstruction. "That's one of the reasons I want to get to The Hague as soon as possible," added Vincent, who will chair the project team overseeing the renovation. "It's all really linked in to the date I get to The Hague."
Vincent is also putting the final touches on the tribunal's budget for its first year of operations, and he will present that budget to the tribunal's management committee before he moves to The Hague, Vincent said. The management committee, which includes the representatives of the UN, Lebanon, the host country and major donors such as the US, UK, France and Germany, functions as a supervisory board for non-judicial tribunal matters and meets at least once per week.
The budget for the tribunal's initial year, including the renovation, should wind up in a range around $45 million, Vincent said.
The registrar is also working with a task force to select core staff. Dutch officials had said they expected Vincent to hire some 100 employees by the end of the year, but Vincent said he did not have a set figure in mind. "My purpose would be to avoid a standing army, as it were, of administrative personnel," Vincent said.
In Lebanon, meanwhile, the formation of a new government should not have any effect on the ongoing establishment of the tribunal, said Shafik Masri, professor of international law. Parliament, paralyzed by the 18-month political deadlock, never met to address the bilateral agreement between the UN and Lebanon to form the tribunal, so the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1757 last May 30 to create the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In the interim, the progress in setting up the tribunal has made it impossible for Lebanese politicians to stop the court, Masri said.
"This is not a disputable issue anymore," Masri said. "There will be no sense in discussing it anymore.""It seems at least part of March 8 - [Parliament Speaker Nabih] Berri and [Reform and Change Bloc head MP Michel] Aoun - both recognized that this court will go on," Masri added. "They did not object clearly."
Opposition leader Hizbullah has not explicitly opposed the tribunal, but some Hizbullah members have expressed worries the tribunal could be manipulated for political ends by Western powers against Hizbullah and/or Syria, whose government many have blamed for Hariri's assassination. Syrian President Bashar Assad has denied any involvement in the political violence here and has said Syria will not allow its citizens to appear before the tribunal.
"If there is any Syrian intervention [against the tribunal], it's not with the Lebanese government or through the Lebanese government," Masri said.
Masri added that he anticipated the UN commission investigating the assassination would present substantial advances in its work in its report due later this month. The commission's mandate expires on June 30, but the commission chief, Canadian Judge Daniel Bellemare, has requested an extension, a mostly bureaucratic formality sure to be approved
 

Back to before
By: Hanady Salman

 Al-Ahram Weekly.

Lebanon's sigh of relief was short-lived, but why, asks Hanady Salman
Beirut had never been like this before. There was a big smile on the face of the city, and oxygen in its lungs. Not even on 25 June 2000, when the Israelis withdrew from South Lebanon; not even in August 2006, when they left defeated after their last bloody war. Not even then did the city shine like this.
On Thursday 22 May 2008, people in the streets of Beirut were smiling. They were tossing "mabrouks" (congratulations) to each other. Driving, which is usually a race to hell in the streets of Beirut, became like ballet, with drivers each inviting the other to pass first!
Relief -- a huge sense of relief; as if someone had removed a vast load that was about to crush your heart.
And that was not because people had carefully read the terms of the deal. Not because some felt they won to the detriment of others. That euphoria was not due to anything the deal cut in Doha provided. It was mostly due to what Doha had helped avoid: civil war.
For the first time in the past three years, the Lebanese felt they could now make plans for the near future at least. For three whole years, since Rafik Al-Hariri was killed 14 February 2005, no one in this country could predict what was going to happen the next day. On 22 May, people felt that the curse had maybe been broken, that they might enjoy some level of stability ...
Anyone who tried to discuss the details of the deal, to put it in question, to ask difficult questions such as "How can they be shaking hands and kissing each other in Doha while the dead are not yet buried?" was quickly shut down. The mood was for relief, for believing it will work this time.
Not that the Lebanese people are naïve, not that they don't know better, not that what was happening had already happened over and over again, ever since most of us were born. But people felt they had paid their dues, that they needed a break. People wanted to turn wishful thinking into reality.
However, that was too much (euphoria) too soon. It did not even take weeks for them to wake up. Like that movie in which the main character keeps waking up on the same day, every single morning, without knowing how to break the chain. One day or two, was it, of long overdue happiness and relief?
Was it something that had had happened on Sunday 25 May?
On that day, Beirut was calm as it always is on Sundays; the flowers in the streets were more colourful than ever, the skies of the city and of the future were blue and clear.
A president that everyone had said they wanted (and supported) was being elected in parliament, in an unprecedented session featuring high- level figures representing most Arab and Western countries.
The streets that had been closed for years now for security reasons had been opened. The city was not as tight anymore; the city had more spaces to offer. Everything seemed to be going in the right direction ...
Why then, on Monday, was Hassan Nasrallah angry in the speech he gave to commemorate the eighth anniversary of Lebanon's liberation? Instead of the expected calm tone and calls for reconciliation, he gave a speech in which warnings were sent in more than one direction. Why? No one yet has the answer.
The next day, the 14 Marsh group went back to the "old" political discourse. Then they decided, after close consultations with Riyadh, to nominate Fouad Siniora to head the government, again.
People were expecting Saad Hariri to be nominated as a sign of real partnership between the different parties. The nomination of Siniora was a signal in the wrong direction.
On Wednesday, Damascus and Riyadh went back to mutual accusations, the Saudis and the emirates were attacking the Iranians. The Qataris, who had just got home after touring the region to thank all the parties concerned for making the Lebanon deal possible, are probably wondering today whether they were too fast in declaring that the region could sort out its own problems when given a chance to do so.
So what is it that happened between Sunday 25 May at 5pm (the election of the president) and Monday 26 May at 6pm (Nasrallah's speech) that changed things so dramatically? What is it that made the French, who had warmly supported the Doha agreement, take a step back on Wednesday and suddenly decide it needed to be fine-tuned?
Could it be that the 14th of Marchpeope gave the opposition in Doha what they had asked for, implying that they agree on a settlement, and then when they guaranteed the opposition was out of the streets, they went back to "business as usual", waiting to see how the Saudi-Syrian affair was going to develop.
It goes without saying that the popular mood has completely shifted in Lebanon. On Monday evening and on Tuesday, there were clashes in the streets between Hizbullah supporters on the one hand and Hariri's on the other. It was as if we were back to square one. Back to where we had started. The flowers stop blooming, the smiles disappeared.
It is clear today that the Lebanese people expected too much too soon. What more will it take? How many more years and how much more blood will it take before "the region" is ready to sort out its own problems?
Meanwhile, the Lebanese political scene is back to its filthy, small details. Will there be at least a truce in the streets of this country?
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved

Lebanon's Man in the Muddle
By Amir Taheri
FrontPageMagazine.com | Friday, May 30, 2008
EVEN before he was sworn in as Lebanon's new president on Sunday, Gen. Michel Suleiman had earned the sobriquet tawafoqi - "man of consensus." He lived up to that label in his first address as president - with something for everyone.
Suleiman, the former Army chief of staff, waved an olive branch at Syria, the power behind much of Lebanon's troubles these last four decades. But he also suggested that Syria and Lebanon establish diplomatic ties - something Syria has always rejected because, deep down, it doesn't really recognize Lebanese independence.
On his first full day in office, Suleiman arranged to meet the visiting Iranian foreign minister, Manuchehr Motakki. After all, the Islamic Republic is a key player in Lebanese politics, thanks to its control of the Shiite Hezbollah militia and the Maronite Christian bloc led by ex-Gen. Michel Aoun.
Yet the "man of consensus" at least partly owed his election to Saudi Arabia and Egypt (whose support led to the success of the recent Doha peace conference among Lebanese factions). So the new president spent a good part of his first day in office on the phone with Saudi and Egyptian leaders.
Suleiman became the "man of consensus" because, at first, nobody wanted him as president. The Western-backed democratic coalition, headed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, wanted Nassib Lahoud (a former ambassador to Washington). The Hezbollah-led opposition, backed by Iran and Syria, wanted Aoun.
Had they acted with greater courage six months ago, the democrats - known as the March 14 Coalition - might have been able to elect their candidate. But they hesitated - allowing the Iran-backed faction to heighten the crisis and draw in the Arab League. Once the Arab League was involved, the Lebanese coalition lost a good part of its independence.
Suleiman's election is hailed throughout the region as a sign that neither side in Lebanon has won. In a sense, however, the winner was Hezbollah and its Maronite allies - the side that relied on bullets rather than ballots. They showed that, even if you lack the votes, you can still prevent the election of someone you don't like - provided you have the guns.
Suleiman has made it all but clear that he won't press for Hezbollah's disarmament, although two UN Security Council resolutions demand just that.
At least one member of the democratic bloc, the Maronite leader Samir Geagea, even hinted at fears that Suleiman may be a tool of Syria because he was appointed chief of staff during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Other coalition members, however, including the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, describe Suleiman as "a true patriot."
No one really knows how the Suleiman presidency might shape up in the difficult years ahead, but two points are clear:
* His election restores Lebanese politics to a certain normality that it hasn't known for the last 18 months. With a new "consensus" president in place, Hezbollah gunmen may find it harder to invade Beirut neighorhoods.
The struggle for power can now shift back to the political arena - rather than the streets, city districts and mountains. And next year's general election promises a decisive showdown between two opposing visions of the nation's future.
* Rival powers bidding for influence in Lebanon may have learned that they can't achieve exclusive domination for their proxies without provoking civil war. That understanding may enable Lebanon to return to its traditional neutrality, including on the Palestinian issue - thus resuming its role as a Middle Eastern haven of peace (and center of political intrigue).
Tactically, Hezbollah looks like a winner. Strategically, however, the Iran-backed party could be a loser: For, while it can try to seize power by force as Lebanon's strongest military power, it's been proven to lack electoral base needed to dominate the government.
In the last general election, Hezbollah gained 11 percent of the vote; it would be glad to do as well next year. The new electoral law should raise Shiite representation in the parliament - but it isn't at all certain that Hezbollah would gain, rather than its rival Amal, not to mention independent Shiite candidates.
And the bloc led by Aoun looks like the biggest loser in the new electoral-districting system. Aoun is likely to end up with fewer seats in the next parliament, further weakening the Hezbollah-led bloc.
And Suleiman's speech included a potentially more important change: a promise to work for a reform to enable at least some Lebanese citizens abroad to vote in the country's elections.
In the wake of the civil war and long Syrian occupation, twice as many Lebanese live abroad as in-country. Allowing their votes would open a range of probabilities - none favorable to Hezbollah.

U.S.-Iran regional power plays shift

By Scott Peterson -The Christian Science Monitor
Iran's 'axis of resistance' may seem ascendant, but new chances for peace could redefine game in US's favor.
By Scott Peterson -The Christian Science Monitor
Reporter Scott Peterson analyzes the latest speech by Hezbollah's leader in Lebanon.Istanbul, Turkey - A string of events across the Middle East is shifting the US-Iran regional power play. The Iran-led "axis of resistance" arrayed against the US, its Western allies, and Israel may appear ascendant, but new chances for peace could also redefine the game in the US's favor.
Syria and Israel announced last week that they had secretly resumed talking peace, through Turkish mediators, for the first time in eight years – each one crossing a divide forbidden by their own rhetoric. Few expect immediate progress. But the fact that a strategic ally of Iran – and of anti-Israel militants Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – is meeting with Israel is prompting speculation about potential change.
"There is a contest going on, an ideological battle, which spills over into proxies and military fighting," says Rami Khouri, head of the Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon. "It's not as simple as saying it's an Iran-American confrontation, but they are the two symbolic poles of these different groups."
A further notable event is the recent Arab League-brokered deal in Qatar between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Lebanon's pro-Western government, which ended an 18-month political stalemate on Hezbollah's terms, as well as days of violence that cost 65 lives.
And in Iraq – where the US accuses Iran of exercising "malign influence" by arming and training militants – Iraqi soldiers deployed relatively peacefully into the Baghdad stronghold of anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Iran played a role in getting Mr. Sadr's Shiite militia off the streets and ending fierce fighting that left more than 1,000 dead over the past two months.
On the peace track, Israel declared that Syria would have to cut ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas to regain the Golan Heights, occupied by the Jewish state since 1967. Syria rejected that demand outright, and instead on Wednesday signed a new defense agreement with Tehran.
"It won't be like the Israelis want, which is a complete break. That is completely out of the question [for Syria]," says Mr. Khouri, a former editor of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper. "But an adjustment is very likely, because a Syria-Israel peace will axiomatically mean that a Lebanon-Israel peace will … follow very quickly, and that would have huge implications for Hezbollah's rationale as an armed resistance movement."
Iran offer to United Nations
News of the Syria-Israel talks came as an Iranian offer addressed to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, dated May 13 and called a "proposed package for constructive negotiations," was made public.
The proposal said Iran was willing to start talks on issues from its nuclear program to a "just peace … in regions that suffer from instability, militarism, violence, and terrorism," according to an unofficial translation. Iran would cooperate to "assist the Palestinian people to find a comprehensive plan" that was "sustainable, democratic, and fair" – effectively a peace deal with Israel, without using either word in the text.
"It's a significant departure in foreign policy. I think they are serious," says a political scientist in Tehran, who asked not to be named. "There is a sense of compromise [from Iran, born] primarily out of self-confidence. They think that they won in Lebanon; that they won in Iraq to a large degree. There is deadlock on the nuclear issue [so] it's a good time to be a little more soft and compromising."
Iran may also be looking beyond the US election, this analyst says. "This is part of an overall approach that may be a prelude … to show the next president that Iran could be worked with," he says. "If you are serious and treat Iran with dignity … there could be windfalls in other areas as well."
Analysts in Beirut and Tehran say Iran is not likely to prevent a Syrian peace with Israel, in the same way that – despite continuous lambasting of Israel – Iran has often stated that it will not undermine any peace deal acceptable to Palestinians.
"Peace with Syria would break up the current strategic situation because it would isolate Iran and silence Hezbollah," Israeli infrastructure minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer told Israel public radio on Tuesday. "We are talking about a true peace, an end to hostilities, an opening of the borders, and Israel is ready to pay the price for such a peace and coexistence with Syria."
But the weak government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is not likely to be able to deliver.
"The only way to divide Tehran from Damascus is to give Damascus back all of the Golan Heights," says Toby Dodge, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Then things start to look much, much different. And that series of victories for Hezbollah, Damascus, and Tehran start to look less triumphant."
But noting that Iran serves as Syria's strategic depth, Mr. Dodge says he "would be surprised if [Syria] did get peeled away" from Iran.
Even if Syria were willing, "it's down to the Israeli government to be secure in itself, not just in its political sense, but in its existential sense, to do that deal," adds Dodge. "And I see no Israeli government [now] that can do that."
eyond that, Hezbollah's top priority is domestic politics, Syria's is the Golan, while Iran aspires to regional dominance.
"You have three parallel ... tracks, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. They are all mutually dependent and mutually supportive, but all have independent aspirations," says Dodge. "The axis is created through a unity of common interests. And if you were sitting in Washington … you would seek to work against the axis by seeking individual and not collective interests."
President Bashar al-Assad said Syria's ties with Iran would not weaken, telling British parliamentarians this week that "if Israel could question Syria's relations with Iran, then Syria could question Israel's ties with other countries, particularly the United States," a source familiar with the Damascus meeting told Reuters.
Still, Iran has moved fast to reinforce the resolve of the "axis of resistance." In Lebanon this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the Qatar agreement, which essentially granted Hezbollah veto power over decisions of the pro-West government, showed "greatly weakened" US influence.
In Tehran, Iran's defense deal with Syria on Wednesday pledged "mutual support regarding territorial independence," and called for withdrawal of "foreign and occupation forces, which are the source of insecurity and instability in the region."
President Ahmadinejad told Syria's visiting defense minister, Hassan Turkmani, that Syria "will not abandon the front line until the complete removal of the Zionist threats."
Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, echoed that theme, telling visiting Hamas chief Khaled Meshal that the "Zionist regime is at its lowest ebb," thanks to Palestinian militancy.
And in Lebanon this week, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah marked the eight years since Israel's withdrawal, noting that negotiations "did not return to Lebanon a single inch of land" – only armed resistance brought "victory."
"There are two dreams; a Lebanese dream and an American dream," Mr. Nasrallah said. "The Lebanese dream speaks about a calm and peaceful summer and the American dream speaks about a hot summer," he added. "Come and let us realize our dreams, and not the dreams of our enemies."

The prospect of a wider peace
May 29th 2008
From The Economist print edition
If Lebanon's latest deal holds, why not bring in Syria and Israel?
JUST two weeks ago, Lebanon was on the verge of civil war. Suddenly, it seems to be on the brink of a lasting peace. And just as Lebanon's own troubles reflected wider tensions in the Middle East, the fractious country's sudden mood of conciliation is sending positive ripples through the region. At least, that is how things appear on the surface.
Following a deal cut on May 23rd in Qatar between Lebanon's bickering factions, Lebanon's parliament swiftly voted into office a new president, a 59-year-old former army chief, General Michel Suleiman. The second part of the deal looked well on the way to being fulfilled, as faction leaders were poised to name ministers for a new cabinet of national unity.
After Syria and Israel, the bigger neighbours who have often sparred for control of Lebanon, confirmed whispers that they had begun talking, Syria's President Bashar Assad even suggested that at some point Lebanon should join in. Meanwhile, Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia party-cum-militia that started the clashes three weeks ago, revealed that it is close to clinching a deal to trade two Israeli soldiers it holds with five Lebanese men jailed in Israel.
That would be a big breakthrough, considering that Hizbullah's capture of the soldiers, with the intent of using them as bargaining chips for such a swap, sparked a 33-day war with Israel in 2006. There has even been some optimistic talk of an emerging regional bargain, with America and Iran, instead of egging their proxies on to fight, letting them come to terms.
Yet severe doubts linger, in Lebanon and at large. The Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, tried to answer them in a conciliatory speech, asserting that despite its swift and violent takeover of Sunni districts in Beirut earlier this month, his Iranian-backed party had no intention of imposing its rule. Every weapon in the country, he said, should “remain in the service of the goal for which it was intended”: defending Lebanon against outsiders (ie, Israel), and not settling internal squabbles.
But he insisted that his “resistance” retained a sacred right to bear arms. Some of his enthusiasts celebrated the speech by riding into Sunni quarters and shooting in the air, sparking violence that injured 16 people. A day later, fighting between Hizbullah fighters and Druze villagers left a soldier dead. Lingering ill-will, especially among Sunni militants who felt humiliated by the Shia show of force, leads many Lebanese to expect more such incidents.
“Ultimately, only a regional deal can get the Lebanese to fix the hard and messy issues, like Hizbullah's guns and how to build a non-sectarian state,” says a diplomat in Beirut. Given the fragility of Israel's government, the reluctance of Israelis to surrender territory in exchange for peace with Syria, and Syria's refusal so far to meet Israeli demands that it drop its alliance with Iran and end support for groups such as Hizbullah, a regional deal looks hard to strike in the near future. But at least its outline looks clearer

Lebanon's tourism phoenix rises again
BEIRUT (AFP) — For three consecutive seasons tourism revenue, once Lebanon's lifeblood, was reduced to a trickle by violence and political uncertainty.
In 2006 it was the Hezbollah-Israel war, in 2007 it was the struggle against Fatah al-Islam militants in the north, and this year internal sectarian clashes dragged Lebanon to the brink of a new civil war. But now it is receiving a much-needed transfusion.
Reservations have begun pouring into this land of sun, sea and mountains, and a bumper tourism season is predicted after years of instability.
There was a collective sigh of relief as calm returned last week after Lebanese leaders came to an agreement in Qatar that ended a long-running political crisis.
"The ink on the Doha agreement wasn't dry yet and the phones were ringing off the hook. From the Gulf, from Europe, from everywhere, we're booked up until the end of the summer," said Mary Shwairy, head of public relations at the upscale Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut. "Tourism is bouncing back in a big way -- short stays, long stays, conferences, weddings of returning Lebanese who live abroad," she added. Caretaker Tourism Minister Joseph Sarkis said he expects this year's figures to be the best for years. "By the end of April we had only received 280,000 visitors because of the security situation. Now we expect between 1.3 and 1.6 million -- the same projected figure for summer 2006 which had seemed to be the most promising," he told AFP. "In 2006, about 4.4 billion US dollars in tourism revenue was projected. Only about 1.5 billion came in," Sarkis added. That summer's tourism prospects were shattered by Israel's 34-day war in July and August -- prime holiday months -- against the Shiite Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. The vicious conflict between the army and Islamist militants in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared north of the country's second city of Tripoli killed tourism in 2007.
That added to a prolonged political crisis between the ruling bloc and the opposition, and culminated in clashes that erupted on May 7 this year, leaving 65 people dead and much of mostly Muslim west Beirut in Hezbollah hands. It could have been the final straw for tourism.
But the May 21 agreement in Qatar restored calm. It led to the election of Michel Sleiman as president, a post that had been vacant for more than five months because of political squabbling. It also saw the lifting of an opposition sit-in that had throttled business life in central Beirut for a year and a half.
Since the Doha agreement there has been "a 30 percent increase in the number of expected tourists compared with last year. Hotels are hiring extra staff and the airlines are adding extra flights," Sarkis said. "Forty percent of the tourists are Arab, 25 percent are European and the rest are of various nationalities," he added.
"Of the Arabs, 40 percent are Jordanian who come in large numbers since visa requirements were waived three years ago. They are followed by Saudis, Kuwaitis, Iraqis and Emiratis," he said. Sarkis said Lebanese expatriates spend large sums of money when they return to the homeland.
"Nature and a love of life are Lebanon's greatest attractions. The Arabs come for the refreshing climate, night clubs and restaurants... Europeans for the archaeological sites" such as Baalbek or Tyre. In another sign of recovery kicking in, the popular Beiteddine and Baalbek music festivals, silenced for the past two summers, will return this year in July. The Beiteddine and Baalbek festival organisers are also co-sponsoring a concert by Lebanese-born pop sensation Mika in Beirut on July 27. Popular summer destinations in Lebanon include the mountain towns of Aley, Bhamdun, Brummana and Beit Mery. In winter the ski resorts of Faraya and Faqra are thronged with visitors.
Aley, which saw heavy fighting in early May, is now preparing to double its population over the tourism season. "Restaurants and cafes that were closed for two years have reopened in record time over the last few days," municipal official Essam Ebeid told AFP. "Aley gets as many tourists as its 40,000 inhabitants -- mostly Qataris, Saudis and Kuwaitis," he said. "But the season will actually be longer than the three summer months because many Arabs and expatriates own homes here."
Ebeid cited property prices as an indication of the return rush of visitors. "Prices have soared by about a third since the Doha agreement," he said. Before the accord was reached "we were expecting fighters armed to the teeth, but fortunately now we welcome tourists with flowers."