LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِApril 24/2010

Bible Of the Day
John 6/48-59: "I am the bread of life. 6:49 Your fathers ate the manna in the wilderness, and they died. 6:50 This is the bread which comes down out of heaven, that anyone may eat of it and not die. 6:51 I am the living bread which came down out of heaven. If anyone eats of this bread, he will live forever. Yes, the bread which I will give for the life of the world is my flesh.” 6:52 The Jews therefore contended with one another, saying, “How can this man give us his flesh to eat?” 6:53 Jesus therefore said to them, “Most certainly I tell you, unless you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you don’t have life in yourselves. 6:54 He who eats my flesh and drinks my blood has eternal life, and I will raise him up at the last day. 6:55 For my flesh is food indeed, and my blood is drink indeed. 6:56 He who eats my flesh and drinks my blood lives in me, and I in him. 6:57 As the living Father sent me, and I live because of the Father; so he who feeds on me, he will also live because of me. 6:58 This is the bread which came down out of heaven—not as our fathers ate the manna, and died. He who eats this bread will live forever.” 6:59 He said these things in the synagogue, as he taught in Capernaum.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters, Interviews & Special Reports
The Scuds saga continues/Michael Young/April 23/10
Missiles or Messages?/Ghassan Charbel/April 23/10
Private-sector efforts key to deliverance/Daily Star/April 23/10
Lebanon needs change two decades after its war/By Fadia Kiwan/April 23/10
No to Iran on the Human Rights Council!/By Ali Akbar Mousavi/April 23/10
Not the real issue/Now Lebanon/April 22, 10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 23/10
'Al-Hayat': Russia Supplied Syria With S-300 Missiles/MEMRI (blog)
Ban Names Committee Members Who Would Select STL Judges/Naharnet
Netanyahu Accuses Iran of Trying to Ignite Israel-Syria War/Naharnet
U.S. Doesn't Believe Scuds Moved to Lebanon/Naharnet
Abul Geith in Beirut Saturday to Discuss Scud Uproar/Naharnet
Lebanon Complains to U.N. about Israeli Monument Near Shebaa/Naharnet
Qassem: Any Israeli War on Iran Will Set Entire Region on Fire/Naharnet
Israeli-Palestinian peace isn't the Mideast's magic cure/Haaretz
No Sign Scuds Moved to Lebanon - US Officials/New York Times
Saudis not to behead Lebanese psychic/The Associated Press
Tribute to Armenian Genocide martyrs” exhibition opened in Lebanon/Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Sleiman meets Brazilian counterpart, Lebanese community/Daily Star 
Sfeir heads to Vatican for Middle East Synod/Daily Star 
New ministerial committee to tackle reforms in education sector/Daily Star 
Baroud regrets reform delay, but insists on timely polls/Daily Star 
MP warns TV channels still airing misleading ads/Daily Star
Thousands to join Laique Pride march in name of secularism/Daily Star 
Jumblat Attacks Geagea: He's Walking in Bashir Gemayel's Footsteps/Naharnet
Berri on Sfeir's Call to End Sectarianism: We've Reached a Common Starting Point/Naharnet
Alliot-Marie Arrives in Beirut: France Condemns Israeli Violations in Lebanon
/Naharnet
Baabdat Reaches Consensus on Alliance
/Naharnet
Consensus Possible in Metn, Election Battles Likely in Sin el-Fil, Fanar
/Naharnet
Suleiman: Lebanon Still Needs International Support to Implement 1701
/Naharnet
Cabinet Forms Committee to Prepare Projects to Develop Educational Sector
/Naharnet
Hand Grenade Shakes Bab al-Tebbaneh
/Naharnet
Hashem: Israel files complaint following recent demonstrations in the South/Now Lebanon
Torsarkissian objects to consensus over municipal election lists/Now Lebanon

The Scuds saga continues
Michael Young, April 23, 2010
The saga of the Syrian Scuds sent to Hezbollah, or perhaps not sent, continues, though for now mainly in the corridors of Washington.
The latest on the matter has come from Senator Dianne Feinstein, the chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. She pointed out, in a statement to AFP on Wednesday, “I believe there is a likelihood that there are Scuds that Hezbollah has in Lebanon. A high likelihood.” Feinstein added that “[t]he rockets and missiles in Lebanon are substantially increased and better technologically than they were, and this is a real point of danger for Israel.”
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also on Wednesday, that the Obama administration would have “really, really serious” concerns if Syria transferred Scuds to Hezbollah. Feltman also brought the subject of the weapons up in conversations with the Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Mouallem, and with Mohammad Chatah, a political advisor to Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
“If these reports turn out to be true,” Feltman said, “we’re going to have to review the full range of tools that are available for us in order to make Syria reverse what would be an incendiary, provocative action.”
Feltman’s call to Chatah had more than a little hint of warning in it. Hariri declared recently in Italy that the Scud allegations against Syria and Hezbollah were similar to the false claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the US invasion of 2003. That did not go down well in Washington. Feltman has indicated that Lebanon’s only real protection against Israel is UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and the Americans must have interpreted the prime minister’s remarks as covering for two of the parties undermining the resolution.
The problem is that Washington is of several minds over what to do about Syria. Feltman’s warning was sharp, and the State Department has taken a tougher position on Syria than others in the US capital. Earlier this week, for instance, Syria’s deputy chief of mission was called in to discuss the arms transfers to Hezbollah. However, Feltman, who honed his distrust of Syrian ways as ambassador to Lebanon after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, is also convinced that the United States gains by sending an ambassador back to Damascus.
The mood in Congress is mixed as well. There are those like John Kerry, the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who support engagement of Syria. But there are others, in both the Senate and House, who want to take a harder line with the Assad regime. Some advocate tightening sanctions and delaying sending Robert Ford, the new US ambassador in Damascus, to his posting.
Not for the first time when the Middle East is involved, the debate has become mainly an insular one. It’s about Washington and who can impose the Syria agenda (and by extension other related agendas affecting Iran and Hezbollah). That’s not to say that someone like Feltman doesn’t mean it when he says that the consequences of Syrian actions may be dire; but ultimately the foreign policy bureaucracy has less of a say on high-profile topics than those calculating in strictly political terms, whether at the White House or on Capitol Hill.
For a variety of reasons, domestic dynamics seem to be gaining ground in the American outlook on the Middle East. President Barack Obama is more vulnerable than ever since taking office, principally for two reasons: domestically, he has not fulfilled his promise of being a consensual president, and the discord over the health care bill embodied this shortcoming. Obama may have made history, but Democrats are bracing for the backlash next November. They also realize that polling is showing increasing public displeasure with big government, a mainstay of Obama’s political program.
In foreign affairs, the president has also come up short. His high hopes for success in the Middle East have been dashed. Many Arabs welcome the tension in US-Israeli relations, but the net effect is that Palestinian-Israeli negotiations remain stalled. Engagement of Syria and Iran has failed, while the administration is still unsure about how to deny Iran nuclear weapons. In Afghanistan the US faces an uphill struggle, with its main ally, President Hamid Karzai, regarded by many American officials as part of the problem. The withdrawal from Iraq is going forward, but Iraq is no longer high in American preoccupations, offering Obama diminishing marginal election returns.
Everyone is calculating in the shadow of these dynamics, and how they will affect Obama’s power. But because there is no broad accord, and because the president has not provided clear guidance on resolving Mideastern problems, there is confusion in Washington. And where there is confusion there is policy bedlam, with everyone trying to fill the vacuum. That explains why the Syrians feel they can relax for now, and why the Iranians see no reason yet to fear an American riposte.
Lebanon should be worried about American uncertainty. When there is doubt in Washington, it usually means the Israelis have wide latitude to do what they see fit here. With much of the Lebanese political class openly or objectively siding with Hezbollah, rather than shaping an American approach to Lebanon that might reinforce its sovereignty, we can guess the calamitous effect of that abdication.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut. His book, The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster), has just been published.

Ban Names Committee Members Who Would Select STL Judges

Naharnet/U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon has announced his intent to appoint a committee tasked with selecting magistrates for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Ban has informed the Security Council of his intent to appoint Egyptian Judge Mohammed Amin al-Mehdi and his Norwegian colleague Eric Moss to the Committee tasked with selecting magistrates who will be in charge of the trial of the murderers of former PM Rafik Hariri. Ban has also informed the Security Council that the Committee will soon hold its first meeting.

Netanyahu Accuses Iran of Trying to Ignite Israel-Syria War

Naharnet/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated charges that Syria and Iran were arming Hizbullah and accused arch-foe Tehran of trying to ignite war between Israel and Syria. "In my estimate, there is Iranian agitation, both direct and indirect, via Hizbullah," Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's Channel 2 TV. "With this agitation, Iran is trying to convince Syria that an Israeli attack is imminent," he added. "This is a lie," he complained, adding that when a lie is repeated enough times "even good people and good leaders repeat the mistake." "Israel wants peace. Israel does not want war," Netanyahu claimed. Tensions have been high recently between Israel and Syria with both sides trading threats. Last week Israel accused Syria of smuggling powerful Scud missiles to Hizbullah, a charge Syria. Netanyahu also called on the U.S. to impose sanctions to block Iran's nuclear program.

Lebanon Complains to U.N. about Israeli Monument Near Shebaa

Naharnet/Lebanon has sent a letter of complaint to the U.N. Security Council after Israel unveiled a monument in occupied Lebanese territories, Beirut media reported Friday.
They said the Lebanese foreign ministry sent the letter through its mission in New York complaining the monument was in an area near al-Bakkar pond southwest of the Lebanese town of Shebaa. Lebanon considered the Israeli step "a clear violation of international law, international humanitarian law and (Security Council) resolution 1701."In the letter, Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami urged the U.N. to ask Israel to remove the monument and withdraw its troops beyond the international border.

Clinton Defends Syria Outreach Despite Row Over Scuds
Naharnet/U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has defended Washington's policy of engagement with Damascus despite the alleged transfer of Scud missiles to Hizbullah.
Speaking in the Estonian capital ahead of a NATO meeting on Thursday, Clinton said: "We have expressed directly to the Syrian government … our concerns about these stories that do suggest there has been some transfer of weapons technology into Syria with the potential purpose of then later transferring it to Hizbullah." Clinton argued that it was in the U.S. interest to have an ambassador in Damascus. "We believe it is important to continue the process to return an ambassador. This is not some kind of reward for the Syrians and the actions that they take, which are deeply disturbing not only to the United States and not just to Israel but to others in the region," Clinton told a joint news conference with Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet. "It's a tool that we believe can give us extra leverage, added insight, analysis, information with respect to Syria's actions and intentions," she said. The Secretary of State reiterated that Damascus should not interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs. "We would like to see Syria refrain from interfering in and potentially destabilizing the government of Lebanon," she said.

U.S. Doesn't Believe Scuds Moved to Lebanon

Naharnet/U.S. officials have said there were no signs that Scud missiles were transferred to Hizbullah from Syria. They said they do not think that Scuds "of any shape or size" have been moved to Lebanon, the officials said. The officials said Damascus is not always known for making the "right political calculations." But in this case, surely they realize that transferring this kind of weapons system to Hizbullah … could lead to serious consequences."

Jumblat Attacks Geagea: He's Walking in Bashir Gemayel's Footsteps

Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat criticized one-time friend Samir Geagea, blaming him for not learning from his past mistakes. "Geagea's statements remind us of the years 1982 and 1983 when Palestinian weapons and what they used to call 'International Left' were created as a pretext," Jumblat said. "Their pretext today is Resistance arms," Jumblat complained. "I wish they understand the significance of these weapons and the importance of establishing a defense strategy where Resistance arms are part of it," Jumblat said in an interview published Friday by the daily Al-Akhbar. "Today, they are attacking Resistance weapons and tomorrow they will attack the Lebanese Army's Arab combat doctrine. Then they will attack the Armistice Agreement in a bid to push Lebanon into sealing a peace treaty with Israel," Jumblat added. "They want the army without an Arab combat doctrine so as to become an army of mercenaries just like the U.S. army," he protested. "All that this worries me." "This guy, Geagea, I don't know what he wants. I cannot understand him. At the dialogue table, he said he wants to send 4,000 trained Lebanese troops to confront Israel. True, we can resist Israel, but this would result in lost lives. We will lose all 4,000 soldiers," Jumblat stated. Geagea, Jumblat argued, was "speaking the same language today as (ex-President) Bashir Gemayel and the Lebanese Right which is not only Christian."He said the LF leader "exposes himself day after day and uses worrying words." "He (Geagea) does not want to learn from his past experience. If I were him I would have remained silent.

Berri on Sfeir's Call to End Sectarianism:

We've Reached a Common Starting Point
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri said on Friday that there should be no obstacles in abolishing political sectarianism and sectarianism in Lebanon as a whole. His statement came in response to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir's recent remarks on the subject. Berri added: "We have reached a common starting point." The speaker also called for setting up the National Commission for the Abolishment of Political Sectarianism according to what is stated in the Constitution. He concluded that the necessary measures need to be taken to eliminate political and non-political sectarianism. Earlier today, Berri informed Prime Minister Saad Hariri of his consensus approval on Beirut municipal elections "because it is the heart of the nation."
The daily An-Nahar on Friday said AMAL movement has kept its current member in the Beirut municipality Fadi Shahrour.

Abul Geith in Beirut Saturday to Discuss Scud Uproar

Naharnet/Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Geith is due to arrive in Beirut Saturday on a several hours' visit to discuss Arab support for Prime Minister Saad Hariri's government as well as Israeli threats and the uproar about Scud missiles. Official sources told the daily An-Nahar in remarks published Friday that the hullaballoo over the alleged transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hizbullah would be high priority on talks. Abul Geith is scheduled to meet with Hariri, Speaker Nabih Berri and Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami. An-Nahar did not rule out a meeting between the Egyptian FM and Hizbullah officials.

Alliot-Marie Arrives in Beirut: France
Condemns Israeli Violations in Lebanon

Naharnet/French Justice Minister Michele Alliot-Marie arrived Friday in Beirut on a two-day visit during which she will meet with a number of officials. On the eve of her visit, Alliot-Marie said that it is "imperative" that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon "fulfills its mission." She stressed in an interview published Friday by the daily An-Nahar that France condemns Israeli violations in Lebanon. "France denounces all violations of Resolution 1701, including Israeli overflights over Lebanese territory and the supply of arms to Hizbullah," Alliot-Marie said.

Suleiman: Lebanon Still Needs International Support to Implement 1701

Naharnet/Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has told his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman that Brazil "wants to contribute to building a new Lebanon."
During talks with Suleiman in Brasilia on Thursday, Lula called for a "true partnership between Lebanon and Brazil" and considered the Lebanese president's visit a "step that can't be spared of."The Brazilian head of state unveiled that he would visit the Middle East to play a mediatory role between the U.S. and Iran "because dialogue is the only solution."
In his turn, Suleiman said: "Lebanon still needs the support of Brazil and the international community to confront the dangers that are threatening it and to return or liberate what's left of occupied territories." The Lebanese president added that support is needed to compel Israel into implementing U.N. Security Council resolution 1701 and stopping its daily violations of Lebanese sovereignty. During the first day of its visit to Brazil, the Lebanese delegation accompanying Suleiman signed several memorandums of understanding in the social, sports and cultural fields. Sources accompanying the delegation told An Nahar daily that discussions dealt with bilateral ties and regional and international issues of common interest.
The two sides also discussed ways to consolidate cooperation between the two countries, the sources said. The two parties stressed the importance of ties that link Lebanon with Brazil and the role of Lebanese expatriates and Brazilians of Lebanese origin in bringing the two countries closer. During an honoring ceremony, Suleiman received the Gran Cruz Cruzeiro do Sul medal of honor from Lula at Itamaraty palace in Brasilia.Suleiman, in his turn, handed over to Brazil's president the Gilded Heraldry.

Not the real issue
April 22, 2010
Now Lebanon/
Scud missiles like the ones Syria allegedly supplied to Hezbollah. (AFP photo)
Do they have them or don’t they? No one seems to be entirely certain if Syria has supplied Hezbollah with Scud missiles. Nonetheless, Washington is in a lather because, while it cannot tolerate the flow of arms to Hezbollah, it is reluctant to break off channels of dialogue it has built up with the Syrian regime. Ambiguity and indecision – should the United States isolate a regime that has shown it cannot entirely be trusted or play realpolitik and engage a Damascus that might be able to deliver on Iraq and Iran? – on the matter has exposed American weakness and also threatens to plunge Lebanon further into instability.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has questioned the intelligence that places the Scuds on Lebanese soil, comparing the claims to those the US made as an excuse to enter Iraq, but at the end of the day the Scuds are not the real issue.
Five years after nearly 1 million Lebanese took to the streets to demand Syria remove its military and intelligence apparatuses from Lebanese soil, the country risks being dragged into a regional conflagration in which Damascus is once again one of the main protagonists.
That Lebanon may have lost its way, due in some part to its inability to seize the day back in 2005 and rid the country of all vestiges of Syria’s 29-ayear presence here, is probably true, but the international community in general, and the US in particular, must also recognize that they "dropped" Lebanon when she was at her most vulnerable. Lebanon’s make up has ensured that it always feels the impact of, rather than shapes, regional policy, but this also means that it is more often than not the epicenter of any crisis, as is the case with the Syrian missile crisis.
If the international community had helped Lebanon move forward on its border demarcation with Syria and address the issue of the illegal and Syrian-sponsored militant training camps, the chances are that this country, which at one point had the world’s admiration for its democratic aspirations, would not be in such a precarious situation, one that United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said recently had the potential to “lead to another conflict.”
This gravity of the “situation” has been further highlighted by Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and Tawhid boss Wiam Wahhab, both of whom are selling the idea of the Resistance as an Arab entity. Jumblatt, who opposed Hezbollah for nigh on four years, told the pan-Arab daily As-Sharq al-Awsat in an interview published Thursday that he felt the Resistance should take its place in the greater Arab struggle against Israel. Wahhab for his part, assured a conference in the Syrian city of Tartus that the Resistance would retaliate if Israel were to attack either Lebanon or Syria.
There are echoes of 1969 and the disastrous Cairo Accord that gave the PLO carte blanche to launch attacks on Israel from Lebanon. Certainly, as Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea told AFP on Tuesday, it is Hezbollah, rather than the government, that currently decides Lebanon’s defense policy. In short, Lebanon is in danger of losing control of its own affairs in a region that is up to its neck in brinkmanship, with Washington warning Syria that “all options” are on the table.
Maybe we should leave the last word to Dan Burton, a Republican congressman from Indiana, who summed up the situation best. Burton the United States should not “reward [Syria] when they’re kicking us in the teeth or spitting in our eye.” “I’ve talked to the Syrian ambassador here, and he seems like a nice guy and he’s got a lovely wife, and I’d like to see us have a positive relationship with Syria,” Burton said. “But I don’t see how in the world we can take steps in that direction if this kind of crap is going on.”
Well said.

Ziad Baroud

April 23, 2010
On April 22, the Lebanese National News Agency carried the following report:
Minister of Interior and Municipalities Ziad Baroud held a press conference at 3 p.m. this afternoon to announce the measures adopted by the Ministry for the municipal elections which will start on May 2. Minister Baroud stated: “We were in this hall less than ten months ago working on the parliamentary elections which were immediately followed by municipal elections. The Interior Ministry is operating with 30% of its capacity, since there is a lack of human elements [at a rate of] 70% in all the directorates. As for the remaining 30%, they are employees who are working hard and making sacrifices while enjoying few resources.
"Despite all of that, they are operating. The Interior Ministry was forced to respect the legal deadlines while it was trying to ensure political reforms over the core of the electoral system. However, these reforms were limited to the electoral stipulations in the municipal laws and did not affect the law in a deep fashion for two main reasons: Firstly, because had we introduced an overall amendment, we would not have completed the task within a few months. Moreover, this issue is tightly linked to administrative decentralization. As for the second reason, it is that there is nothing preventing us to work on the amendment of the municipalities law and administrative decentralization starting the second day of the elections because the new stipulations will be implemented on the newly-elected even if they are ratified after the elections. The Interior Ministry chose to conduct the elections under the current law so that it does not break the law. At the same time, I would like to register my deep regret toward the non-ratification of the reforms on time...
“The term of the municipal councils is six years and the elections will be held gradually between May 2 and May 30. In the absence of any other law, the Interior Ministry was obligated to implement the one in place... As for the parliament, it is the side entitled to issue legislation and is its own master. Therefore, no one can force the different parliamentary blocs to approve the same things that were ratified by the Cabinet with its ministerial blocs if they can be referred to as such. We defended the reforms within the Cabinet after they were ratified and transferred to the parliament. In the end, these reforms were not written off, but unfortunately, were also not applied to the May 2010 elections... As for proportionality, it is not a preference. It is recognized on the international level as being the best and most just way to manage plurality. There are three countries around the world which have not yet adopted pre-printed ballots and Lebanon is one of them.
“As for the women’s quota, its adoption was inevitable, and the committee to supervise the electoral campaign was a great accomplishment which we should not waste and we should ensure its continuation. All of these things have become part of our electoral dictionary and we are all responsible for their defense and ratification whether in the municipal or the parliamentary elections...
“The setting of the date of the elections on May 2 in Mount Lebanon, May 9 in Beirut and the Bekaa, May 23 in the South and Nabatiyeh and May 30 in the North was due to the fact that the 2004 elections were held based on this formula and that the end of the term of the municipal councils follows this order.
“Therefore, we adopted it without showing any preference to one region over the other. The dates were not arbitrary and came in line with the short timetables imposed on us by the law. This issue must be addressed later on when we start debating the amendment of the law...
“3,311,000 voters will be casting their votes and there are 963 municipalities throughout Lebanon, 57 of which were newly-created. The voters will be electing around 2,753 mukhtars and 5,649 municipal council members. As for the head of the municipality, he will be named by the elected members. On the other hand, 14,000 employees will participate in the organization of the voting process, including 4,000 new employees who will be assuming their tasks for the first time. The latter will undergo fast training sessions... The overall number of municipalities in Mount Lebanon [as published, presumably just Lebanon] is 313 featuring 3,528 municipal seats over which 7,507 candidates will be competing. As for the number of mukhtar posts in all the districts of Mount Lebanon, they are of 735 posts over which 1,710 candidates will be competing.
“However, there are only 921 candidates running for 1,377 mukhtar council seats. Thus, the number of candidates running in Mount Lebanon amounts to 10,138 candidates divided between 9,568 men and 570 women. This is unfortunate and corroborates the necessity to adopt the quota since this figure is very low at the level of the candidacy, let alone at the level of the voting which is yet to be seen...
“The security situation in the country is not only related to the elections. It is a daily task. However, during the electoral period, there is an additional need for harsher and stricter security measures. The army and the security forces have started the arrangements weeks ago in order to uphold the calm during the elections…
“We put the final touches on the security plan which is a comprehensive one. We also tackled the smallest details to ensure the safety of the electoral process which will require a large number of security elements. In… Lebanon, we will need between 15,000 and 20,000 elements for 530 posts. There will be 7,500 elements from the internal security forces on the doors of the voting centers while all the area outside of the main door will be handled by the army...”

Missiles or Messages?
Ghassan Charbel
Drum beating does not necessarily imply going to war. Sometimes drums are beaten in order to avoid a military conflict; as a chapter of diplomatic and political pressures; and perhaps for crises that are external to the direct arena which is at the center of all interests. We cannot separate the keenness to intensify the “missile crisis” from two files – the first being the open crisis with Iran, whose stance is a source of embarrassment to Russia and China; and the second being that we are still living in the aftermath of the July 2006 War in Lebanon, which introduced some change on the game rules in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israel was obliged to stop its destructive war in 2006 without being able to deprive Hezbollah from its ability to shower its very heart with missiles. It considered U.N. SC Resolution 1701 as some kind of sanction against Hezbollah, as it is kept away from the border with Lebanon. It was probably thinking of the coming round, and more specifically of missiles. Consequently, it hastily developed anti-missile methods. However, it is widely believed that anti-missile operations are costly and still lack precision. Since that day, Israel has wondered about its ability to coexist with an arsenal at its border, one that is controlled by a party that dreams of uprooting it – a dream that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes no secret of.
During that war, Hezbollah registered a precedent that Arab armies which confronted Israel failed to achieve. In parallel to this success, the Party of God lost its ability to shift the front in South Lebanon. A great change was brought about on the condition of the Resistance. Hezbollah became obliged to use its arsenal if Israel retaliated for any operation realized at the border area by attacking the heart of Lebanon. In other words, any shift at the front carried henceforth the danger of launching war.
It is evident for Hezbollah to consider the 2006 war to be a battle in a prolonged conflict, due to the fact that part of the Lebanese territory is still occupied. The Party of God’s program goes beyond the Lebanese soil and encompasses its uncompromising commitments towards the Palestinian cause and the feeling of common path and fate with the Islamic Republic in Iran. In practice, Hezbollah entered into an armament race in which resistance movements usually do not take part. It had to start behaving as a quasi-state. The more Israel develops weapons, the more Hezbollah strives to obtain what would confront them or decrease their gravity. This implies seeking weapons that obstruct the control of Israeli fighter planes on the Lebanese air space, and developing the range and precision of the other missiles. This also implies threatening Tel Aviv, Dimona, and other locations, whose mere capacity to be targeted was considered by Israel as a reason to launch a war.
Shimon Perez accused Syria of providing Scud missiles to Hezbollah. These allegations were accompanied by threats to return Syria to the “Stone Age”, without any evidence being submitted. When U.S. administration entered into the crisis, it summoned, advised, warned, and didn’t offer any evidence that would justify the current “missile crisis”.
The current crisis prompts any observer to ask a variety of questions: Should the allegations be considered a response to the tripartite summit that was held in Damascus last February between Assad, Ahmadinejad, and Nasrallah? Does Israel hence mean to obstruct the return of the U.S. ambassador to Damascus and divert attention from its conflict with the Obama administration on the way to seriously stir the peace issue? Do the Israeli declarations, which consider Hezbollah to be a troop of the Syrian army, aim at holding Damascus responsible for the continued ceasefire in South Lebanon and any violation of this ceasefire that could occur? Does this also mean that the region will face an Israeli war against both Syria and Lebanon if Hezbollah tries to retrieve its ability to shift the front or take revenge for Imad Moghnieh? Or does the “missile crisis” aim at offering pretexts for the scenario which considers that “cutting off Iran’s arms is less costly than attacking it on its territory”?
Drum beating does not necessarily imply going to war. However, it is a very dangerous game in the absence of a reasonable and acceptable U.S. role and in light of the paralyzed Turkish role after Erdogan’s stardom led to the breakdown of Ahmed Davutoglu’s plane.
*Published in the London-based AL_HAYAT on Apr. 22, 2010.

Sfeir heads to Vatican for Middle East Synod
By The /Daily Star
Friday, April 23, 2010
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir discussed local affairs including the Oyoun Orghosh incident before heading to the Vatican on Thursday to participate in preparations for the Middle East Synod.
A news conference was held by Sfeir at the Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut before boarding the private plane that was offered by former Deputy Premier, Issam Fares, on his way to the Vatican. He was asked about the current local situation, including his thoughts on the recent Oyoun Orghosh security incident.
Earlier this month, gunshots were fired into the air and rocket-propelled grenades were launched in Oyoun Orghosh, the Bekaa, leading army commando forces to raid several houses in the region and arrest four suspects. The army also seized a number of illegal firearms and 1 ton of hashish.
The incident sparked a political controversy after fingers were pointed at the Christian Lebanese Forces party. Commenting on the situation, Sfeir said everyone should defend Lebanese territories.
Asked whether it was possible to defend Lebanon in Oyoun Orghosh, Sfeir said: “Defending Lebanon includes defending all its territories – whether in Oyoun Orghosh or in the south.”
Concerning the precarious situation in south Lebanon, Sfeir said Israeli threats were constant and should be addressed through coordination between all Lebanese forces. He also tackled the weaponry of the Hizbullah-led resistance, saying he supported Lebanon and all its forces but that the Shiite group had to abide by limits set by the government and its citizens.
Sfeir also discussed abolishing political sectarianism. “We hear talks about abolishing political sectarianism, so let us erase sectarianism in one go,” Sfeir said. “Why include politics and why differentiate? If everyone agrees to this then we will not get in the way.”
In the Vatican, the patriarch is scheduled to participate in preparations for the synod, which will be held from October 10 to 24. He will also meet with Pope Benedict XVI to discuss the situation in Lebanon. When asked whether or not he would address the issue of Imam Musa Sadr’s disappearance during his meeting with the pope, Sfeir said the case has long been a matter of discussion. Sadr, an Iranian-born Lebanese Shiite cleric, went missing in Libya 32 years ago.
Sfeir was asked why he was absent from the recent gathering held by the Syrian Embassy to celebrate its national day. Sfeir said he received an invitation but was unable to delegate someone to attend. He said he would “look into” visiting Syria if he was asked to visit.
Sfeir added that he hoped the upcoming municipal elections would be held peacefully, adding that conflicts within villages were more difficult to resolve than conflicts in elections. – The Daily Star