LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 18/10

Bible Of the Day
The Good News According to Matthew 5/13-20: "You are the salt of the earth, but if the salt has lost its flavor, with what will it be salted? It is then good for nothing, but to be cast out and trodden under the feet of men. 5:14 You are the light of the world. A city located on a hill can’t be hidden. 5:15 Neither do you light a lamp, and put it under a measuring basket, but on a stand; and it shines to all who are in the house. 5:16 Even so, let your light shine before men; that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father who is in heaven. 5:17 “Don’t think that I came to destroy the law or the prophets. I didn’t come to destroy, but to fulfill. 5:18 For most certainly, I tell you, until heaven and earth pass away, not even one smallest letter or one tiny pen stroke shall in any way pass away from the law, until all things are accomplished. 5:19 Whoever, therefore, shall break one of these least commandments, and teach others to do so, shall be called least in the Kingdom of Heaven; but whoever shall do and teach them shall be called great in the Kingdom of Heaven. 5:20 For I tell you that unless your righteousness exceeds that of the scribes and Pharisees, there is no way you will enter into the Kingdom of Heaven.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Israel's Diplomatic Debacle & Mossad Success/Isara Cast/January 17/10
Should Lebanon fear the spring of 2010?/By: Jean-Luc Vannier/Now Lebanon/January 17/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 17/10
Report: Hizbullah Operative Killed Iranian Nuclear Scientist/Naharnet
Abu Moussa Rejects Disarming Palestinian Bases Outside Refugee Camps/Naharnet
Iranian dissident Masoud Ali Mohammadi 'killed by Arab hitman'/Times Online
Kuwait: Netanyahu insane/Ynetnews
Lebanese Leftist Protesters Depict Mubarak as Israeli Agent /Naharnet
Hariri in UAE on Official Visit /Naharnet
Israeli Patrol Penetrates 300 Meters into Northern Part of Ghajar /Naharnet
Iran's Tajeddini: Tehran 'Fully Supports' Lebanon Unity /Naharnet
Report: Hezbollah held antiaircraft missile test in Syria/Ynetnews
US official: If Syria gives Hezbollah SA2 missiles, war with Israel will ensue/Ha'aretz
U.S. Official: Hizbullah is Terrorist, Its Media is Trying to Tarnish U.S. Economic Image/Naharnet
Israel will conduct huge military operation on Lebanese border next month, says Al-Watan/Now Lebanon
Qassem: The Resistance is a National Need, Not a Political Tactic/Naharnet
Hizbullah evades Salah Ezzedine, debtors fear his escape/Future News
Egyptian paper calls Mossad chief 'Israel's superman/Israel News
Israel's Barak heads to Turkey after diplomatic row/Now Lebanon
Phalange tells Hezbollah : Yes for defeating Israel, no for toppling Lebanon's/Ya Libnan
Lebanon, Iran to coordinate in UN Security Council: Lebanese president/Xinhua
Jumblat: Three-Quarters of Way toward Reconciliation with Syria is Open/Naharnet
Lebanese Army Officer Found Dead in Western Bekaa/Naharnet
Public or private? March 14 considers Rafik Hariri commemoration/Now Lebanon
Iraq's 'Chemical Ali' sentenced to death for Halabja attack/Now Lebanon
Berri’s game to abolish sectarianism is uncovered, an-Nahar /Future News

Egyptian paper calls Mossad chief 'Israel's superman'
Al-Ahram credits Meir Dagan with singlehandedly stalling Iranian nuclear program for eight years
Roee Nahmias Published: 01.16.10, 11:01 / Israel News
Egypt's Al-Ahram reported Saturday that Iran was being prevented from developing staggering nuclear capabilities by Israel's Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, whom the paper dubbed "Israel's superman". "The Iranians definitely know who is behind the assassination of nuclear scientist Massoud Ali Mohammadi in Tehran on Tuesday. Every Iranian official understands the magic word – Dagan. Without this man the Iranian nuclear program would have taken off years ago," the report says. "The head of the Israeli Mossad, unknown to many because he works in silence and away from the media tumult, has delivered painful blows to the Iranian program over the past eight years and caused it to stall despite the hubbub surrounding it. This fact has made Dagan the superman of the Jewish state." The report was written by the paper's former chief of Gaza Strip affairs, Ashraf Abu al-Haul.
"Those who follow occurrences within Israel know that the current Mossad chief has achieved things no one could have imagined in everything from the Iranian nuclear program and the capabilities of the Syrian army to Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad. However he has never published his activities, and publications have always come from the other side," he wrote.
Al-Haul credits Dagan with "very brave actions taken in the Middle East", including the assassination of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus in 2008, the bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, and a strike on an arms convoy headed from Iran to Gaza through Sudan last year.

Report: Hizbullah Operative Killed Iranian Nuclear Scientist
Naharnet/An Iranian nuclear scientist killed last week by a blast from a remote-controlled bomb strapped to a parked motorcycle may have been the victim of an Arab hit man belonging to Hizbullah, opposition groups told Britain's Sunday Times. The Tehran regime has accused "mercenaries" financed by Israel and Washington of involvement in the killing of Massoud Ali Mohammadi, 50, a supporter of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the opposition leader. However, opposition groups who monitor Hizbullah, claim that a member of the group, known by his pseudonym "Abu Nasser," was photographed at the scene of the explosion in Tehran's affluent Gheytarih suburb, according to The Sunday Times. It said that a German-based opposition group released a photograph of a man of similar appearance who, it alleges, was one of the pro-regime demonstrators who stormed Mousavi's office in Tehran after the disputed presidential polls last June. The British newspaper said that the opposition claims "the Revolutionary Guard uses Hizbullah operatives for some bloodthirsty tasks because they have a reputation for ruthlessness, and are outsiders and can always be blamed as opposition sympathizers." Opposition sources also told The Sunday Times that scores of Hizbullah officials are based in Tehran and are frequently used by the regime to crack down on its opponents. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 19:59

Abu Moussa Rejects Disarming Palestinian Bases Outside Refugee Camps
Naharnet/Fatah al-Intifada Secretary-General Said Moussa on Sunday rejected disarming Palestinian militants outside refugee camps in Lebanon and stressed that the issue of arms would only be resolved through a Palestinian decision. "Palestinian arms outside refugee camps … are aimed at confronting the Zionist enemy in case there was a new aggression on Lebanon's south," Moussa said after a visit to Sidon Municipality head Abdel Rahman al-Bizri. The visit of the group's secretary-general, who is better known as Abu Moussa, was the first since 1982, the National News Agency reported. Any "decision on Palestinian arms in Lebanon is an internal Palestinian decision that has nothing to do with any other party even if there was a Syrian signal to Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disarm" militants outside refugee camps, Abu Moussa said. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 18:50

Lebanese Leftist Protesters Depict Mubarak as Israeli Agent
Naharnet/Lebanese protesters accused Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Sunday of acting like an agent of Israel over his country's construction of an underground steel wall along the Gaza border. The Egyptian barrier could deprive Gaza's Hamas rulers of their only lifeline by blocking hundreds of smuggling tunnels. About 200 people took part in the protest near Egypt's embassy. Crowds set fire to U.S. and Israeli flags. Some of the Israeli flags had Mubarak's picture on them. The protesters also carried banners depicting Mubarak as an Israeli agent, as well as portraits of the president with a Star of David on his forehead. The Gaza barrier has angered many Arabs and Muslims. Egypt calls it a matter of national security. Hamas' exiled political leader, Khaled Mashaal, visited Beirut last week and urged Egypt to stop construction of the barrier, saying walls are built "between enemies, not brothers." Sunday's protesters -- most of them activists from leftist groups -- carried banners with Mubarak's image and the words: "At your service USA."(AP) Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 16:40

Hariri in UAE on Official Visit
Naharnet/Prime Minister Saad Hariri traveled to the United Arab Emirates on Sunday on a two-day official visit. His trip to the UAE comes ahead of a three-day visit the premier will make to Paris next week for talks with top French officials, including President Nicolas Sarkozy. Hariri and his accompanying delegation are expected to sign five agreements with the French side. Before traveling to the UAE, Hariri visited the Catholic Archbishopric of Beirut and extended condolences to the family of Hassib Sabbagh. Sabbagh, who established the Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC), the region's largest multinational and one of the largest contractors worldwide, died on Tuesday after a long illness. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 15:15

Israeli Patrol Penetrates 300 Meters into Northern Part of Ghajar
Naharnet/An Israeli army patrol penetrated 300 meters into the occupied Lebanese side of the border village of Ghajar on Sunday and monitored the Wazzani spring, the National News Agency reported. The patrol stayed in the area for 15 minutes and then withdrew to the Israeli side of the village, according to NNA. Israel continues to occupy the northern part of Ghajar. Recent media reports said that the Jewish state blamed the Lebanese government for Israel's procrastination on withdrawing from the Lebanese side of the village.
The reports said Lebanon refuses to deal with Israel and negotiations on the pullout are underway only between UNIFIL and the Jewish state. Sunday's move came the same day the Israeli army consolidated its bases around the occupied Shebaa farms area and along the Blue Line with personnel and armored vehicles, the agency said. In return, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL intensified patrols on the Lebanese side of the U.N.-drawn Blue Line, NNA added. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 16:19

Iran's Tajeddini: Tehran 'Fully Supports' Lebanon Unity
Visiting Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajeddini said Tehran fully supports the "unity and independence" of Lebanon, the Lebanese president's office said.
"The Iranian official conveyed President (Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad's appreciation for President (Michel) Suleiman's efforts to strengthen the atmosphere of consensus in Lebanon and emphasized President Ahmadinejad's full support for the unity, sovereignty and independence of Lebanon and its territory," a statement from Sleiman's office said Saturday.
Tajeddini, who is vice president for parliamentary affairs and was in Beirut for an Arab and international forum on resistance movements, also met with Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. "I would like to reiterate the unchanging principles of Iranian foreign policy which... are reflected through our embrace of and support for all resistance against the enemies of Arab and Islamic nations, primarily the Zionist entity," a statement released by Hariri's office quoted Tajeddini as saying.
Hariri, son of murdered ex-premier Rafiqk Hariri, announced the formation of a new government on November 9, more than four months after his US- and Saudi-backed alliance defeated a Hezbollah-led bloc backed by Syria and Iran in a general election. Suleiman appointed five ministers in the 30-seat cabinet, which grants him the role of arbiter in the new government.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 09:01

CRN Radio - Phares comments about the long term fate of Lebanon
Written by CRN Radio
Saturday, 16 January 2010
Dr. Walid Phares
In his second message via CR News to address the rise of Hezbollah power in Lebanon and the return of Syrian and Iranian influence to Beirut, Dr Walid Phares reviewed the international and regional developments which may affect the situation in Lebanon throughout 2010 and asserted that the majority of Lebanese are still opposed to terror forces.
CRN Radio from Washington D.C. with Professor Walid Phares on the long term fate of Lebanon
CRN Radio - Dr. Walid Phares
He addressed "especially those who in Lebanon continue to struggle for freedom to regain what was lost in 2008 and in 2009." Internationally, he explained, a major point of interest is the strategic moves by the United States which are as we know dealing with its economic crisis. The Obama Administration and Congress are trying to create some financial and economic stability as they are also addressifn serious security issues inside the country and terrorism in two battlefields. So the question is what is important for Lebanon and the Cedars Revolution in the geopolitical developments. We find there are three directions:
One, the US are at war with terror organizations, mainly al Qaeda and its allies both in the Middle East and worldwide.
Two, it also working on protecting its national security after the the Abdelmutalib terror act.
Three, domestically America is bracing for the next congressional election in November which will see some change in foreign policy regardless of the results and who obtains the majority. Hence the next relevant benchmark regarding US policy for Lebanon and the Middle East seems to be the elections in the fall fo 2010.
However the most important game changer in the region and regarding Lebanon is the Green Movement in Tehran streets. What we see there, regardless of international reaction, that popular movement in Iran is at a stage of non return. The Ayatollahs regime has entered in a struggle with entire sectors of the Iranian civil society. Observers are projecting more confrontations and Tehran's regime which is under pressure will escalate in Yemen, in Gaza, in Iraq and in Lebanon. Thus expect that Iran will press more to put Lebanon under its umbrella, including the possibility that its allies in Lebanon, that is Hezbollah could trigger wars and violence.
Internally the balance of power as changed in Lebanon since May 2008. Hezbollah and his allies have won. Those who lost are trying to dodge the discussion and their responsibility in that loss. That discussion is unavoidable now and in the future. But reality is that the balance has shifted but didn't change irreversibly. The forces of the Cedars Revolution lost power and the decision making process but it didn't lose geography. March 14 still has a majority in Parliament and has a Prime Minister. But that is not the issue. The most important matter is that there is a a popular majority in Lebanon opposed to the terrorist organizations and to Syrian and Iranian influence. The shift in power didn't affect that reality.
Hezbollah controls Lebanon's national security and defense policies but didn't shift the popular support to the Cedars Revolution. Actually the popular majority against terror has increased. If you subtract the followers of the March 8 coalition and those who support politicians who have been shifting from March 14 to the other side the masses are strongly supportive of the Cedars Revolution. The political realignment is only representative of politicians changing coats not of the popular mood.
Will this popular majority have an impact on the political scene now? No, because politicians do not have a plan. We hear some voices criticizing our comments in the old ways of the 1980s and 1990s accusing our analysis of inciting for divisions. But we tell them that their voices are from the past and their narrative foesn't work outside the Beirut Airport. The international community doesn't give credence to those who wants to reinstall anti democratic forces in power in Lebanon. Times have changed.
Hezbollah controls its traditional areas. But there are many regions opposing Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies. The popular sentiment in the Christian, Sunni and Druse areas oppose the agenda of Hezbollah regardless the politicians agendas. Within the Christian community the same equation persists: Some politicians are allies with Syria and Hezbollah, that is a fact. But those who oppose such policies are a vast majority. Besides many of the opposition to terrorism inside the Christian community are now in the process of thinking about an alternative strategy. Cadres in civil society and intellectuals are rethinking the political resistance. Change will certainly come. It needs its own time. Updated ( Saturday, 16 January 2010 )

U.S. Official: Hizbullah is Terrorist, Its Media is Trying to Tarnish U.S. Economic Image
Naharnet/Cultural Attaché at the U.S. embassy in Beirut Ryan Gliha has stressed that Hizbullah is a "terrorist" organization, reiterating that Washington's stance from the group "won't change.""The U.S. Administration does not have a specific position with regard to the issue of banning satellite televisions," Gliha said in comments published Sunday by al-Mustaqbal and Asharq al-Awsat dailies. His remarks were translated into English by Naharnet.Gliha clarified that a "draft bill" in this respect was being considered. He accused Hizbullah's media of distorting the U.S. image. "Al-Manar television and al-Nour radio station are trying to tarnish the economic image in the U.S.," the U.S. diplomat said. "These two media outlets have not been classified as terrorist channels for that reason, but for their extreme support for Hizbullah," Gliha added. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 08:34

Israel will conduct huge military operation on Lebanese border next month, says Al-Watan
Naharnet/January 17, 2010 /Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported on Sunday that Israel will conduct a huge military operation on the Lebanese border next month.
The daily said the Israeli army has, in preparation, started bringing equipment to the Israel-Lebanon border. The country also sent a letter to Lebanon through UNIFIL forces in the South, according to the paper, to say its border activities should not be cause for concern. Al-Watan additionally reported that during Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit to Ankara last week, he detected Turkish fears over a possible Israeli attack in the region, specifically in Lebanon. The paper said, however, that Turkey did not make any specific mention of a possible military strike to Hariri. -NOW Lebanon

Qassem: The Resistance is a National Need, Not a Political Tactic
Naharnet/Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem on Saturday called for "the adoption of the resistance option, because it is the best choice for liberating the land."
In a lecture at the Lebanese University's Faculty of Science, Qassem said: "The (peace) settlement is an illusion that won't lead to any results, but rather would squander what is left of our land because Israel needs the peace process to annex lands and extend occupation." "The resistance is not a local, regional, or international political tactic. It is not a part of deals among nations, and not a negotiation tool on political gains … and it will persist because it is a part of Lebanon's strength." Qassem added that "all tangible evidences proved Lebanon's need for the resistance," calling those who have another choice to deter Israel to demonstrate it. Beirut, 16 Jan 10, 17:05

Army Officer Found Dead in Western Bekaa
Naharnet/Lebanese Army First Lieutenant H. A. Nassr was found dead Saturday noon with two gunshot wounds in the chest inside his car near Kamed al-Louz western entrance in Western Bekaa. The state-run National News Agency reported that "a forensic investigation was started to identify the reasons." The body was moved to Farhat Hospital. Beirut, 16 Jan 10, 16:32

Jumblat: Three-Quarters of Way toward Reconciliation with Syria is Open
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat said Sunday that "three quarters of the way" toward reconciliation with Syria is open and stressed on maintaining his centrist stance. Beirut, 17 Jan 10, 10:03

Israel's Barak heads to Turkey after diplomatic row
January 17, 2010 /Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak travelled to Turkey on Sunday in the wake of a diplomatic row between the two military allies sparked by a controversial Turkish TV series. Barak was to meet his counterpart Vecdi Gonul and Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu for talks that were to focus on arms deals, Israeli public radio reported.
Turkey has been a close military ally of Israel since 1996 but relations between the two countries have been tense in the wake of Israel's devastating war on Gaza last year which Turkey vehemently criticized. Relations hit a new low last week, when Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon publicly dressed down Turkish ambassador Oguz Celikkol over a controversial Turkish TV series the government said presented Israelis as baby-snatchers. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Public or private? March 14 considers Rafik Hariri commemoration
January 17, 2010 /Now Lebanon
Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa reported on Sunday that the March 14 alliance will hold an expanded meeting at the Bristol Hotel in Beirut by the end of the month, to determine how to carry out the fifth annual commemoration of late former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination on February 14. The daily said the March 14 General Secretariat wants “to organize a popular gathering on the occasion, because it symbolizes the unity of the Lebanese and should not be affected by the changes in the political situation.”But, some critics are against holding a public event - involving speeches from various parties - this year. According to the paper, they would prefer instead to have Prime Minister Saad Hariri be the only speaker at the ceremony. The daily reported that Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt, according to insiders, is one of the people who does not want a popular gathering for the commemoration this year. -NOW Lebanon

Iraq's 'Chemical Ali' sentenced to death for Halabja attack
Now Lebanon/January 17, 2010
Ali Hassan al-Majid, better known as Saddam Hussein's enforcer "Chemical Ali," was on Sunday sentenced to death for ordering the gassing of Kurds in the Iraqi village of Halabja, state television said. The Al-Iraqiya channel said Majid would undergo death by hanging, after having been found guilty of the notorious attack in 1988 in the northeast part of the country as the Iran-Iraq war drew to a close. The ruling is the fourth time he has received a death sentence. An estimated 5 thousand people were killed at Halabja, three-quarters of them women and children, in what is now thought to have been the deadliest gas attack ever carried out against civilians. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

Hizbullah evades Salah Ezzedine, debtors fear his escape
Date: January 16th, 2010
Future News/The case of Lebanese businessman Salah Ezzedine’s bankruptcy reache the point of no return, not just on the legal level, but also in regard to settling wrangles with debtors after efforts for compromise failed and after Hizbullah lifted its sympathy towards Ezzedine. Hizbullah took back its promise to compensate debtors due to the humongous sums of money lent and awareness that Ezzedine still has considerable liquidity to pay people back.
The newly-imploded crisis prompted depositors to file criminal charges against Ezzedine for fraudulent bankruptcy, embezzlement and channeling funds abroad.
A judicial source affirmed that the number of complaints pressed so far exceeded 150 lawsuits in Beirut, Mount Lebanon and the south after debtors recognized that judiciary is the only authority to preserve their rights as the Shiite party broke its promise.
The source pointed that none of Hizbullah leaders and politicians filed complaints against Ezzedine, apart from Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hassan who filed two lawsuits against the businessman who gave the minister two bounced cheques, each worth $200 thousand.
One depositor’s lawyer, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that the developments of this issue reveals that Ezzedine is not a victim as he claimed once arrested. He, nonetheless, turned hundreds into victims on purpose. The lawyer accused Ezzedine of smuggling money abroad and distributing funds in foreign banks under the names of other people. The issue later exploded in the face of depositors who lost their hard lives’ work overnight.
The lawyer assured that Ezzedine is running his business from inside jail while some depositors confirm that Ezzedine attempted to escape prison several times but the attempts have been thwarted. He added that debtors fear that if Ezzedine succeeds in escaping jail, he would flee to outside Lebanon.
He asserted that Ezzedine’s family is still living in luxury they had before he was arrested, “which proves that the detained has sums of money inside and outside Lebanon. In every court session the defendant imposes conditions that debtors do not receive financial compensations unless they withdraw complaints and thus facilitate his ticket to get out of jail. This way he can re-organize his business and return money to debtors if they don’t continue to legally bicker with him.”
On the reason why politicians and Hizbullah partisans did not press charges against Ezzedine, the same lawyer said that “they had to choose among three choices: to either receive profit far larger than their capitals, or they have lots of money and don’t need to put themselves into public scrutiny or Hizbullah paid their deposits back and turned its back to the rest of the people.”

Berri’s game to abolish sectarianism is uncovered, an-Nahar
Date: January 17th, 2010/Source: An-Nahar
An-Nahar daily quoted Sunday Lebanese policymakers as saying that Speaker Nabih Berri is well aware that his proposal to form a committee to abolish political sectarianism is unfeasible in light of the political-popular rejection aroused against the bid, in particular Berri’s key ally “Hizbullah” who has to take into account the positions of General Michel Aoun, perhaps more than satisfying the Speaker. The newspaper stressed that well-informed sources indicated that there are three topics on the table at this stage; the administrative appointments, the abolition of political sectarianism and the municipal elections. It also considered Berri’s game is aimed at snatching more posts in public institutions in the upcoming appointments from his contestant Hizbullah, while on the other hand some believe Berri’s pitch is more linked to the municipal elections due next spring. The last-minute-shot thrown by Berri through his proposition to form a national committee for the abolition of political sectarianism is apparently seized by MP Walid Jumblatt only who is endeavoring to put Berri in his pocket as a powerful Shiite ally to preserve a certain sectarian diversity in the next municipal elections. However, it should be noted that the experience of the municipal elections in 1998 was very frustrating to Berri and his Amal Movement given the fact Hizbullah’s pursuit to take over all the municipalities in Shiite dominated areas. According to these sources, the policy adopted by some senior officials prior to 2004 was to maintain the Shiite diversity, despite the fact that this compromise was costly at administrations, quotas and other relevant fields. To sum up with, the same sources assert that Berri’s procrastination is aimed at postponing the municipal elections a year or two or to delay it until further notice.

Should Lebanon fear the spring of 2010?
By: Jean-Luc Vannier,
Now Lebanon
January 15, 2010
Beirut, January 3, 2010: Standing at the entrance of the Parliament Building on Nejmeh Square, the policeman in charge of the parliament’s security service, which is almost entirely manned by partisans of the Shia movement Amal, notices a visitor holding an edition of Moyen-Orient magazine with Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the cover. The high-ranking officer approaches the visitor and asks discreetly in French: “Il y a la guerre au printemps?” [Will war break out in the spring?]. Nobody ever speaks of war in Lebanon but everybody thinks about it. This holds true for one minister’s personal assistant, who comments in a moderate tone on the intentionally-reassuring declarations of a Hezbollah MP who is waiting for an audience, saying: “He is the only one who believes in what he is saying.” This should be revealing.
While Lebanon celebrated New Year’s Eve in a joyous atmosphere, three risk factors still threaten its political future: First, an Israeli aggression on Hezbollah; second, the promulgation of the indictment in connection with former PM Rafik Hariri’s assassination by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon; and third, the rapid deterioration of the situation in Iran.
First, President Michel Sleiman’s trips to the United States and France did certainly not dispel his fears. In fact, his two counterparts with whom he met on that occasion gave substance to the declared intentions of Israeli officials. In other words, since Iran cannot be attacked, it is necessary to avenge the insult of July 2006 and deal with the Shia militia once and for all, the rearmament of which is still perceived as a threat and an obstacle to peaceful options in the region. The only certain thing is that the “timing” remains in Israel’s hands. This was confirmed by Nawwar Sahili, a Hezbollah MP for the Baalbek-Hermel region, who said: “We will only react.” Despite this official serenity, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s Ashura speech, which came out as menacing toward some of the Christians by calling on them not to “make the same mistake twice”, proves that the Shia militia does not have control over all the cards. Henceforth, the pro-Iranian party has its eyes on the Lebanese Forces and their leader, Samir Geagea, who is the only radical opponent to Hezbollah’s armament.
However, Lebanese officials, including those belonging to Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s immediate circle, say that reports about an Israeli attack are just propaganda: Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar seeks to minimize such information even if he admits that “it is a daily prospect in Lebanon.” Najjar said: “The prospect of an attack is part of our key preoccupations, but it should take into consideration a particularly varying regional environment. Will Iran still be holding on in the spring? Will Syria abstain from intervening? Will Hezbollah still be Syria’s ally?” According to March 14 MP Atef Majdalani, an Israeli attack remains “unlikely” as long as “there is an objective alliance between Hezbollah and Israel.” Majdalani explains his idea, saying: “The continuing regional tension is in favor of Israel’s protection by the United States, and the Shia militia remains a scarecrow for Sunni Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, thus allowing for a greater amount of tolerance toward the Jewish state.” The Iranian nuclear issue, Majdalani says, also serves the same interests.
Israel is running out of time, which is in Hezbollah’s favor, the latter having obviously decided to become part of the Lebanese political structure and play the institutions’ game all the way to the end. The Ministry of Agriculture, which was entrusted to Hassan Nasrallah’s political advisor and Baalbek MP Hussein Hajj Hassan, may not be a strategic position. However, the administrative development portfolio held by Mohammad Fneish gives an insight into all the ongoing mutations in other ministries, an advantage of which the Party of God intends to make use. Sources at the Grand Serail, the seat of the government, noted that for the first time ever, Hezbollah is paying keen attention to the allotment of vacant high-ranking civil service positions. In fact, the party had been inclined in general to grant the Amal Movement, its traditional ally, the freedom to allocate the quota of Shia candidates as it chooses. This line of behavior was confirmed by the justice minister, who emphasized “Hezbollah’s involvement in Lebanese politics and internal reforms” and expressed the hope that “Hezbollah’s weapons will grow less dangerous as the stability of the Lebanese regime improves.” The Shia militia is doing so for multiple reasons, including the need to gloss over the events of May 2008 when the weapons of the “Resistance” were used against fellow Lebanese, and to dissolve into the state’s protective shield at a time of mounting existential threat, thus rendering any Israeli military option more unacceptable in the eyes of the international community. Hezbollah cadres assert in their private circles: “Nothing will happen before two years [have come to pass].” Would this be the time needed for Hezbollah to add new antiaircraft weaponry to its arsenal? Or is it the time needed to “become the Lebanese state itself”, according to the warning of MP Nadim Gemayel, some leaders of the March 14 coalition or figures of the Lebanese Option Gathering, the Shia opposition movement led by Ahmad al-Assaad?
Which of the two will finally manage to infiltrate the other, the Lebanese state or Hezbollah? According to some, this involvement is overly “unilateral”. Indeed, following an explosion in Dahiyeh’s Haret Hreik neighborhood, Shia militiamen imposed a 19-hour blackout before national police services managed to intervene. A Hezbollah minister had the following brief comment: “There is no security taboo, rather security requirements only.” Despite many denials, unofficial UN sources seem to describe an incident involving the transfer of explosive materials from one warehouse to another under the supervision of Hamas officials.
Second, despite the reassuring visit to Beirut by the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), Lebanese political officials from the March 14 forces and the opposition alike expressed serious doubts regarding the prosecutor’s capacity to complete his mission. In this respect, it is worth noting that the STL is no longer an UN-affiliated body; rather, even UN officials stationed in Beirut have admitted that the STL’s “special and independent status” makes it increasingly vulnerable to “Lebanese and Western political pressures regarding the timing and content of the indictment.” Lebanese sources close to the government even said that such pressures “already exist.” Names have already started to leak from The Hague, pointing to the top circle of the Shia militia, i.e. one of Imad Mugniyah’s designated successors and other former officials in charge of Lebanese security services, especially those in charge of wiretapping within the Lebanese Armed Forces Intelligence Department. Nevertheless, a high-ranking official who wished to remain anonymous said: “Neither [US President Barack] Obama nor [French President Nicolas] Sarkozy nor anyone else wishes to risk having the indictment spark chaos in the country, and this holds true for PM Saad Hariri as well despite his personal involvement in the STL’s establishment.” While the “communication strategy” of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has received its ample share of criticism, sources close to the United Nations assert that the STL may, “quite diplomatically”, name dead Syrian figures. The same sources said that the indictment will avoid mentioning Hezbollah “sui generis”, but it will nonetheless mention names of suspects, thus paving the way for potential negotiations. The most pessimistic in Lebanon already predict the retort: a report for wanted persons will be issued but it will never lead to any results. The justice minister argues that “the indictment could be published in successive segments” as a means to circumvent potentially violent reactions.
Third, everyone unanimously agrees on identifying the irreversible opposition movement in Iran as the greatest threat to Lebanon’s stability. In plain language, in the event of worsening security trouble, the Iranian regime may be tempted to play the Hezbollah chip in order to create a distraction, in which case the international community would focus its attention on the conflict zone. The crisis in Yemen comes within this framework: in other words, it is an attempt to create a decoy and drive the Americans to get involved in it. In this respect, Hezbollah fighters were said to have been alongside Yemeni rebels, as proven by the discreet funerals of fallen combatants in remote areas of the Bekaa. According to Shia opposition leader Ahmad al-Assaad, the common fate of Iran and Hezbollah is sealed. Assaad goes on to say that the “militia will not survive the demise of its mentor.”
In this maelstrom of uncertainties, Syria has, as usual, pulled out. UN officials assert that “Damascus is still allowing weapons into Lebanon and [foreign] fighters into Iraq.” At the same time, Syria is suspected of exerting pressure on former Yemeni President Ali Nasser Mohammad in order to ban his supporters from taking part in the conflict pitting the rebels against the legitimate Yemeni government. Hence, Saudi Arabia expressed its gratitude by exerting insistent pressure on PM Saad Hariri to visit Bashar al-Assad. According to a source who is close to the Lebanese prime minister and who met with him just before his departure to Syria, it was “a reluctant visit” and, according to another source who met with him immediately following his return, “a bitter pill to swallow.” The statement of Lebanon’s newly-appointed foreign affairs minister can thus be interpreted under a new light: “UN Resolution 1559 does not exist!”
The Lebanese justice minister says that “Syria remains a strategic necessity for Israel and the West.” Yet Ibrahim Najjar is member of the Lebanese Forces, a party on which the 30-year occupation of Lebanon by it mighty neighbor took a heavy toll. He goes on to say that Lebanon is a country “which still has a margin of maneuver”, hence his prudent recommendations: “Lebanon should not alienate Syria and should avoid internal destabilization.” Commenting on a potential fallout between Iran and Syria, the justice minister asserts “it is possible if Iran wavers”, then adds: “Israel would then have killed two birds with one stone!”
This article is a translation of the French, which can be viewed here
**Jean-Luc Vannier is a former Middle East advisor to the Secretariat General for National Defense (SGDN) and an auditor at the Institute of Higher National Defense Studies (IHEDN); he taught for several years at the Université Saint-Joseph (USJ) in Beirut. Now a psychoanalyst, he is also a part-time lecturer at the Université de Nice and at EDHEC and writes columns on the internet.
 

Israel's Diplomatic Debacle & Mossad Success
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Defense Minister Ehud Barak To Examine If Turkey Is Willing To Put Ayalon Affair In the Past & Treat Israel More Respectfully
IsraCast Assessment: Egypt Ignores Foreign Minister Lieberman But Maintains Close Relations With Netanyahu Government - Possible Precedent For Turkey?
Al-Aharam: 'If Not For Mossad Chief Meir Dagan, Iran Would Have Acquired Nuclear Weapons Years Ago!'
Defense Minister Ehud's Barak's official visit to Turkey has been saved by the eleventh hour apology of Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. Barak will be able to examine what can be salvaged from the relations after Ayalon tried to humiliate Turkish Ambassador Ahmet Oguz Celikkol while delivering a protest over Turkey's verbal attacks on Israel and the screening of anti- Semitic programs on Turkish TV. The Barak visit will now have added importance at a time that relations between Jerusalem and Ankara have hit an all time low. On the other hand, none other than the Egyptian newspaper Al-Aharam credits Mossad chief Meir Dagan with stalling Iran's nuclear weapons project.
Recently, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman summoned Israeli ambassadors and consuls from around the world to Jerusalem - he instructed the senior diplomats, in no uncertain terms, to cease their 'apologetic' approach in presenting Israel's battle for survival. The diplomats were ordered to go on the offensive in confronting the diplomatic warfare now being waged against the Jewish state, not only in international forums such as the UN, but also frequently in the international media. Lieberman did have a case; Israel is more often than not held accountable to a stricter double standard than, for example the U.S., Britain and the all the other democratic NATO members, when one considers such arenas as Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. (And of course, Russia in Chechnya or China in Tibet get a free pass altogether). Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon then proceeded to demonstrate how it's done. Muslim Turkey, once one of Israel's closest allies where Israeli pilots once used Turkish Air Force bases for training, has recently shifted its foreign policy goals.
In the assessment of Dr Uzi Rabi, an Israeli expert: 'Turkey knocked on the door of the European Union for years, but that door has not opened'. Now Turkey has realigned its foreign policy toward the Muslim and Arab world - Israel is paying the price. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who started out as an interlocutor between Israel and Syria, has repeatedly castigated the Jewish state for nearly everything that has gone wrong in the Middle East. (Channel One Commentator Oded Granot cracked that any moment look for Erdogan to bring up 'The Jews also killed Jesus!' The Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogan, a devout Muslim, whose Justice & Development party ruling party is Islamic in nature, escalated his rhetoric in a fierce confrontation with Israel's President Shimon Peres, a year ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Erdogan stalked out after Peres rose to the occasion and responded to the Turk's diatribe by retorting: 'What would you do if Istanbul were being hit by thousands of rockets!'
Since then it's been nearly all downhill although Infrastructure Minister 'Fuad' Ben Eliezer was officially invited to Istanbul recently and returned home describing it as both 'successful and cordial'. However, his optimism was short lived. Israel's close strategic ties with Turkey appear to have ended; Turkey recently scratched Israel from planned military maneuvers with the U.S., but to the Turks' chagrin, the U.S. then refused to participate. Nonetheless, Defense Minister Ehud Barak is about to make an official visit to Turkey, a trip that would have been canceled, if Israel's Foreign Ministry had not issued the official apology demanded by Turkey. But the fact is that in diplomatic etiquette Ayalon's attempt at humiliating Turkey's Ambassador Ahmet Oguz Celikkol falls under the aegis 'IT'S NOT DONE!' Diplomats, as representatives and the symbol of a foreign country are always to be treated by the host countries with the utmost respect regardless of the current state of relations.
It had also been an incontrovertible tenet of Israeli diplomacy. In one fell swoop, Ayalon a career diplomat had thrown all his discretion to the wind and had succeeded, incredibly, in turning the tables against Israel - instead of pressing her case against the unjust invective of Istanbul, Ayalon had switched the diplomatic spotlight on his egregious handling of the Turkish ambassador. ( If any of the young cadets in the Israel Foreign |Ministry's training course had proposed an Ayalon - type solution in a case study, the deputy foreign minister would himself probably have kicked him/her out as unsuitable. The only positive thing is perhaps the current Turkish debacle can be used as a case study on how not to conduct Israel's foreign relations).
Nevertheless, why did Ayalon set himself up for all the flak he is now taking. At first it was widely held in Israel that Lieberman, the boss, instructed /ordered his deputy to publicly humiliate the Turkish ambassador Celikkol - in line with the view 'that's the lingua franca in the Middle East'. Alas! The Turks responded with diplomatic professionalism, summoned the Israeli ambassador and demanded an official Israeli apology, which they eventually received to Israel's ignominy.
In a recent report, IsraCast raised the issue of how unsuitable appointments, for political purposes to high government office, can lead to reckless results. As a party leader and MK, Lieberman had sparked a diplomatic uproar when he declared in a Knesset debate that Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak 'could go to Hell' for refusing to ever officially visit Israel. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Netanyahu later appointed Lieberman as foreign minister in order to gain his coalition support. Undoubtedly, Lieberman notorious for his undiplomatic ways, is the least suitable politician to serve as Israel's #1 diplomat. It recalls former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's agreeing to let Labor party leader Amir Peretz, the former trade union boss, take over as defense minister. Political reporter Ayala Hasson of Channel One TV has said although Ayalon was obviously spurred on by Lieberman's more assertive approach for Israeli diplomats, the Foreign Minister did not tell Ayalon to try and humiliate the Turkish ambassador - he was only to lodge a stern protest. The deputy then went overboard apparently believing his actions were in line with the wishes of his minister. If so, this raises serious doubts about Ayalon's judgment and diplomatic skills. This is one version - there is another.
Ayalon served as Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's ambassador to Washington and a career diplomat does not reach that level without being very smart. Therefore, he must have known that humiliating a foreign ambassador is a 'no-no' in diplomacy and one that would backfire and yet he did not, probably out of fear of his boss, refuse to carry out an instruction, that would so obviously harm Israel's national interest. But Ayalon was not alone in his timorousness to face Lieberman; even Prime Minister Netanyahu did not criticize publicly the fiasco, due to his concern that if Lieberman were angered he might bolt the coalition. When Turkey's deadline running out, President Peres provided the 'ladder for the climdown' by his telephone call to Bibi suggesting that things with Turkey had deteriorated far enough and must be rectified. This enabled the Prime Minister to approach Lieberman with a request that 'for Shimon's sake', Ayalon should issue an apology and promise not to do it again.
The Turkey dossier could have and should have been handled differently. Cabinet Minister Ben Eliezer lambasted Ayalon's behavior calling it 'harmful and superfluous' in spite of Turkey's unfair bashing of the Jewish state. Ben Eliezer exclaimed:'What do we want to do arouse the entire Muslim world against us!' The cabinet minister was contacted by Israel Radio at the head of a working delegation to India, a country that has been steadily expanding its relations with Israel. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, as did the other cabinet members steered clear of commenting on the diplomatic disaster. Barak side-stepped the question by saying that it was not his job to give marks to the foreign ministry. Even Opposition leader Tzipi Livni, appeared cognizant of the deteriorating situation and preferred not to viewed as siding with the Turks by criticizing the government; but after Istanbul accepted Israel's apology, the opposition can be expected to follow the Israeli media in hauling Lieberman, Ayalon and Netanyahu over the coals. It will be up to Defense Minister Ehud Barak to examine what can be built on the burning bridges between Jerusalem and Ankara.
What is so exasperating about the ill-considered affair is that Israel is far 'more sinned against than sinning'. And the question remains - how should Israel react to the unbridled verbal attacks from Turkey, a country notorious for its brutal suppression of its Kurdish minority that has been fighting for autonomy. Could Israel not make quiet diplomatic use of one sort or another of this and other issues? For example, the fact that in recent years Israeli governments, out of consideration for its relations with Turkey, rejected international appeals from various quarters to recognize the Turkish massacre of an estimated one and half million Armenians during World War I . The Armenians view it as their Holocaust. And when it comes to the use of force, what of the Turks' invasion of Northern Cyprus where they still remain since 1974. This is in violation of the UN Charter and repeated Security Council resolutions although Istanbul contended they were sent to protect Turkish Cypriots from their Greek counterparts. Moreover, the Turks then proceeded illegally to set up an illegal breakaway state resulting in the expulsion of an estimated 250,000 Greek Cypriot refugees from the North. In addition, 120,000 Turkish settlers were then brought in from Turkey. For the record, all but five of the 500 Greek orthodox churches were either desecrated or destroyed during the Turkish invasion. This is the record of the country that Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon had to apologize to this week.
So, Israel's Foreign Affairs Ministry, under the stewardship of Avigdor Lieberman, has chalked up another key Middle East state with which it nearly severed diplomatic relations. But strangely enough, the Prime Minister's relations with Egypt seem to be thriving - Netanyahu and other cabinet ministers have been invited to Cairo and the Egyptians are, for the first time, really cracking down on the Hamas arms smuggling into Gaza. In effect, the Egyptians perceived Lieberman as a 'loose cannon on deck', and agreed to bypass the Lieberman Foreign Ministry. The Egyptian case could set a precedent for Turkey as well, if Defense Minister Barak finds the Turks are ready to put the Ayalon affair behind them and also treat Israel more respectfully than they have recently.
Al-Aharam: ' If Not For Mossad's Meir Dagan, Iran Would Have Acquired Nuclear Weapons Years Ago!'
The leading Egyptian newspaper Al-Aharam has credited Meir Dagan, the chief of Israel's Mossad secret service, with delivering 'painful blows' that have stalled Iran's nuclear weapons project for the past eight years. The paper concludes: 'If not for Dagan, Iran would have acquired nuclear weapons years ago!' The article adds that the Iranians know the Mossad was behind the assassination of nuclear scientist Prof. Massaoud Ali Mohammadi in Tehran on Jan 12th. The Mossad was also said to have played a key role in the demonstrations against the regime since the recent Iranian election. Dubbing Dagan 'Superman of the Jewish state', Al Aharam added that no one could have imagined that the Mossad chief could not only have delayed the Iranian nuclear project but to have also downgraded the military capabilities of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. All the while, Dagan has worked in the shadows shunning media publicity. According to Al- Aharam, the Mossad has been involved in many 'daring operations' in the Middle East such as the assassination of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus in 2008, the bombing of a secret Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, and an air strike on a clandestine arms convoy in Sudan that was on its way from Iran to Gaza last year. Egypt is a bitter rival of Iran and last year the Egyptian secret service uncovered an Iranian backed subversive network operating inside the country.
David Essing