LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
ِAugust 07/2010

Bible Of the Day
1 Samuel 2/1-10: "Hannah prayed, and said:
“My heart exults in Yahweh! My horn is exalted in Yahweh. My mouth is enlarged over my enemies, because I rejoice in your salvation. There is no one as holy as Yahweh, For there is no one besides you, nor is there any rock like our God. “Talk no more so exceeding proudly. Don’t let arrogance come out of your mouth, For Yahweh is a God of knowledge. By him actions are weighed.  “The bows of the mighty men are broken. Those who stumbled are armed with strength.  Those who were full have hired themselves out for bread. Those who were hungry are satisfied. Yes, the barren has borne seven. She who has many children languishes.  “Yahweh kills, and makes alive. He brings down to Sheol, and brings up. Yahweh makes poor, and makes rich. He brings low, he also lifts up.  He raises up the poor out of the dust. He lifts up the needy from the dunghill, To make them sit with princes, and inherit the throne of glory. For the pillars of the earth are Yahweh’s. He has set the world on them.  He will keep the feet of his holy ones, but the wicked shall be put to silence in darkness; for no man shall prevail by strength.  Those who strive with Yahweh shall be broken to pieces. He will thunder against them in the sky. “Yahweh will judge the ends of the earth. He will give strength to his king, and exalt the horn of his anointed.”
God Alone is Trustworthy
We look for security in many things: our job, our possessions, our relationships. But all those can be lost. In this fast-changing world, you can count on God to be an immovable rock in your life. He is always present; he never fails. When you make God the most important thing in your life, you'll have a solid foundation no matter what else crumbles away. Give your heart and all to God alone. When you trust him, you have a love that endures through all eternity.

Free Opinions, Releases, letters, Interviews & Special Reports
The Lebanon border and Hezbollah’s war footing/By Walid Phares/August 06/10
Too long on the front line/Now Lebanon/August 06/10
Israel accuses Lebanon’s Army of becoming ‘Hizbullized’/AFP/August 06/10
Direct to where?Al-Ahram Weekly/August 06/10
Mideast Girds for an Epic Battle of Moderates Versus Extremes/By Uri Goldflam/August 06/10
The Fayez Karam saga/By: Michael Young/August 06/10
Brushfire or Spark? Incident on the Israel-Lebanon Border/ By David Schenker, Andrew J. Tabler, and Jeffrey White/August 06/10

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 06/10
Canadian Foreign Ministry issues Lebanon travel warning/AFP
Analysts say no war likely on Lebanon-Israel border – for now/AFP
Aoun ‘shocked’ to learn Karam spied for Mossad/Daily Star
Southern security officials discuss Israeli threat/Daily Star
Khamenei’s adviser meets with Lebanese leaders/Daily Star
US praises Lebanese Armed Forces in annual terror report/Daily Star
Jumblatt warns of STL being usurped by US, Israeli interests/Daily Star
Nazareth court charges three with spying for Syria/AFP) and The Daily Star
UN Seeks to Calm Tensions on Israel-Lebanon Border/Voice of America
LEBANON – ISRAEL United Nations backs Israel on border incident/Spero News
Aoun on Karam's Arrest: Three of Christ's 12 Disciples Betrayed Him
UNIFIL Says Avoiding New Clashes Depends on Parties Commitment to 1701
Lebanon to Assess Security Concerns over BlackBerry Use
BlackBerry backlash spreads to Lebanon/National Post (blog)
Israel, Hizballah, and Iran: Rumors of Another Regional War/Monthly Review
Lebanon's Tenuous Peace/Huffington Post (blog)
Insecurity Council/Huffington Post (blog
Fayez Karam arrest: Hezbollah wariness and FPM shock and loss of trust/iloubnan.info
Update on Iron Dome: U.S. spends $1 billion on Israeli defense/Examiner.com
Al Qaeda remains biggest threat, State Department report says/CNN
US Considers Push for UN Action in Syria/Wall Street Journal
Lebanon's Qadisha Valley Threatened by Development/Voice of America
The View From the Lens of an Israeli Tank's Scope/New York Times
Israel fabricated charges against three suspected spies for Syria/Haaretz
Fadlallah's Office: Wednesday First Day of Ramadan/Naharnet
Firefighters Douse Huge Fire in Sodeco Square Underground Floor/Naharnet
Report: Nasrallah to Unveil that Qazzi Allowed Israel to Manipulate Mobile Lines in Hariri Murder/Naharnet
Abu Moussa Warns against Israeli Attack on Lebanon Refugee Camps/Naharnet
Ogero Using Israeli-Designed Tapping Software/Naharnet
Congress Likely to Stop U.S. Military Aid to Lebanese Army/Naharnet
Hand Grenade Targets Home of Saudi in Upper Metn/Naharnet
Nahhas: Lebanon to Negotiate Access to Data with BlackBerry/Naharnet
Baroud Denies Informing Aoun that 5 of Close Aides are Suspected Spies/Naharnet
Report: Nasrallah Seeking to Plant Doubts in Minds of Opponents on Hariri Murder/Naharnet
Tufaili: Hizbullah Leadership Change Could be Way Out of Tribunal Crisis/Naharnet
Israeli Officials Urge U.S. to Stop Funneling Money to Lebanese Army/Naharnet
Lebanese Army Followed Orders to Open Fire at Israeli Troops/Naharnet
Israeli Ambassador to U.S.: Distinction between Lebanese Army, Hizbullah 'Cloudy'/Naharnet
UNESCO Concerned by Abu Rahal's Death, Urges Restraint/Naharnet
Poll: Erdogan, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Nasrallah Most Admired Leaders/Naharnet
Washinton Steps in as BlackBerry Backlash Spreads to Lebanon/Naharnet
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Approved/Naharnet
Ayalon: We Will Deal with Lebanese Army on Basis of Being an Enemy/Naharnet
U.S. Again Cites Iranian Support for Hizbullah, Hamas, Militants in Iraq, Afghanistan/Naharnet
Aoun on Karam's Arrest: Three of Christ's 12 Disciples Betrayed Him/Naharnet

Hezbollah is in full control of Lebanon
LCCC: Hojataleslam Ali Saidi, the representative of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Khomeini announced today that Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq are the front line for Iran in its conflict with its enemies. According Hezbollah and Hamas are not Palestinian or Lebanese, but Iran armed proxies in the ME and must be dealt with accordingly
It was officially announced in Iran today by a high ranging Mullah that Hamas (Gaza Strip) and Hezbollah in Lebanon are the Iranian first front lines against their enemies. Accordingly the confrontation in the ME is between Iran, Hamas, Syria and Hezbollah on one side and Israel with all the Arab countries and the West on the other. Sadly the Arab countries are not doing any thing and all are waiting for Israel and the USA to attack Iran and Israel to finish Hezbollah.
I fully agree that what happened in South Lebanon yesterday was not warranted or justified by any military standard and should have not happened, BUT Hezbollah is in control all over Lebanon and dictates on all the Lebanese institutions what they must do or not do including the Army troops stationed in South Lebanon. The sad incident of yesterday was masterminded and executed by Hezbollah, although Mr. Barak said otherwise in an official statement.

“There is a danger of the Hizbullization of the Lebanese Army, if the army begins to behave like Hizbullah,” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told public radio in Tel Aviv.
“If Hizbullah manages to take control of the army, we will have to treat [the army] in a completely different manner,” he added.

Canadian Foreign Ministry issues Lebanon travel warning
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, August 06, 2010
MONTREAL: Canada has warned its nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Lebanon following a deadly exchange of fire between Lebanese and Israeli troops along the two countries’ common border. Without mentioning the clash, which left four dead, the Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday that the situation in Lebanon “remains fragile.”
“Heightened tensions throughout the region, together with increased threats globally from terrorism, put Canadians at greater risk,” it said. It advised Canadians not to travel south of the Litani River, particularly to areas near the border with Israel, because “tensions remain high” despite a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hizbullah in August 2006.
Canadians were also urged to avoid certain areas of the southern city of Tripoli “prone to inter-community violence” and Palestinian refugee camps as the security situation here “remains very tense.” It told Canadians to expect their government’s aid in leaving the country only “as a last resort,” if commercial travel options have been exhausted.
“Situations vary from one location to another, and there may be constraints on government resources, which can limit the ability of the government of Canada to provide assistance, particularly in countries or regions where the potential for violent conflict or political instability are high,” it said. Ottawa had to evacuate 15,000 Canadians from Lebanon in 2006 when war broke out. – AFP

Israel accuses Lebanon’s Army of becoming ‘Hizbullized’
UN stresses need for both countries to respect blue line
By Patrick Galey and Agence France Presse (AFP)
Daily Star staff
Friday, August 06, 2010
TYRE, South Lebanon: Israel on Thursday accused the Lebanese Army of coming under the control of Hizbullah as the United Nations sought to restore calm following clashes that killed four along the Blue Line. The UN stressed the need for both countries to respect each other’s territory and work toward maintaining peace after the bloodiest altercation between Lebanon and Israel since the 2006 summer war.
“There is a danger of the Hizbullization of the Lebanese Army, if the army begins to behave like Hizbullah,” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told public radio in Tel Aviv.
“If Hizbullah manages to take control of the army, we will have to treat [the army] in a completely different manner,” he added.
Ayalon’s comments followed an emergency tripartite meeting held Wednesday night between Lebanese and Israeli Army officials and representatives of the
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The UN’s special coordinator for Lebanon also attended the talks at the Naqoura Blue Line crossing point.
“UNIFIL informed the parties that a thorough investigation into yesterday’s events is under way and presented its preliminary findings,” UNIFIL Deputy Spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.
“On completion of the ongoing investigation, UNIFIL will share its findings with both the parties. In the meantime, UNIFIL urged the parties to exercise maximum restraint, avoid any action that could serve to heighten tensions, and work with UNIFIL in taking steps to prevent any recurrence of such a situation,” he added.
UNIFIL Force Commander Major General Alberto Asarta Cuevas, who was outside of Lebanon on Tuesday, addressed those assembled and urged both Lebanese and Israeli governments to work toward implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates Lebanese sovereignty not be breached.
“I reiterated the sensitivity of the Blue Line and urged utmost caution in any actions along the Blue Line that could be perceived as provocative and exacerbate tensions,” Cuevas said. He warned against future “wanton escalation.”
Gun and rocket fire was exchanged by Lebanese and Israeli troops Israel cut down a tree on the northern side of its technical fence. Two Lebanese troops and a journalist were killed in the violence, as well as a high-ranking Israeli soldier. Lebanon claims that the Israeli patrol was in its territory; Israel and the UN deny that the soldiers had breached the Blue Line.
UN Undersecretary General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy told reporters in New York that it was crucial to establish the exact reasons behind the flare-up.
“It’s very important that this meeting is taking place,” he said. Le Roy added that while UNIFIL were not able to prevent casualties, it was able to restore calm to the area relatively quickly.
Speaking to The Daily Star, Tenenti said that the investigation findings would be released as soon as possible to quell speculation over who was responsible opening fire.
“Who fired first, whether or not these were warning shots … all this needs to be part of the investigation,” he said.
Even though Hizbullah was not directly involved in the clash, Ayalon’s comments were refuted by Major General Abdulrahman Shehaitly, who said that Tuesday’s shooting was done upon the orders of Army Command. “Only 20 percent of the border is demarcated according to the Blue Line. The other parts are called reserve zones. The army refuses that Israel enters these zones without its approval,” she hastily added. A senior Hizbullah source told The Daily Star that the Lebanese party refused to get involved on Tuesday to avoid the situation escalating.
“We exercised high restraint because of directions from the party leadership. If we intervene in a clash, there are a number of things we need to take into account,” the source said.
The source added that any involvement from the party would have been interpreted domestically as an attempt to deflect attention from the possible impending prosecution of Hizbullah members in the UN probe over who was behind former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination.
On Thursday, UN Education, Social and Cultural Organization Director General Irina Bokova criticized the death of Assaf Abu Rahhal, the Lebanese reporter who died in Tuesday’s fighting. “I call on all parties involved to make every effort to shed light on the causes of this tragic incident, and to make sure it does not happen again by showing more restraint,” she said. – With AFP

Tufaili: Hizbullah Leadership Change Could be Way Out of Tribunal Crisis
Naharnet/Former Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Sobhi Tufaili said a change in Hizbullah's leadership is likely a way out of the international tribunal crisis. He called on Hizbullah's incumbent leadership to undergo a major change. "No change in the (Hizbullah) leadership is illness," Tufaili said in an interview published Friday by Asharq al-Awsat.
"The nations', institutions' and parties' fault for not undergoing change from time to time is a sign of illness," he cautioned. "Keeping the same leadership is deadly for mankind," Tufaili believed. "Change could possibly be a way out of the tribunal issue," he suggested, adding that change is revitalization of the political work. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 09:23

Israeli Ambassador to U.S.: Distinction between Lebanese Army, Hizbullah 'Cloudy'
Naharnet/The distinction between the Lebanese army and Hizbullah has become "cloudy" and advanced weaponry given to the Lebanese military could find its way to the Shiite group, Israel's ambassador to Washington Michael Oren has warned. When asked during a conference call whether the U.S. had plans to stop providing arms and assistance to the Lebanese army, Oren said: "There's no indication yet" of that happening.  His stance came after U.S. State Department Spokesman Philip Crowley defended U.S. military assistance to Lebanon.
Asked if Washington was concerned that U.S. weapons or material would end up being used against its ally Israel, Crowley said Wednesday: "We have provided support to Lebanon to strengthen the ability of the Lebanese government to exercise its own sovereignty. This is in our interest." "We certainly do not want to see the kind of exchanges of fire that occurred yesterday (Tuesday). Our efforts, right now, are focused on how we can try to prevent this from happening again," he told reporters. "We are committed to Israel's security, but we're also committed to Lebanese sovereignty," Crowley added. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 08:59

Lebanese Army in South on Alert Again
Naharnet/Lebanese troops overnight went on alert again near the border village of Kfar Kila after a number of Israeli soldiers deployed in the opposite side. Local media on Friday said no shooting incidents were reported at Fatima border crossing during the brief tension. They said cautious calm returned to the area about half an hour later following UNIFIL's intervention. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 07:31

Karam's Family Urges Media Not to Spread Rumors Amid Report that 'Human Error' Led to his Arrest
Naharnet/Retired Army Brig. Gen. Fayez Karam's family urged the media on Friday to stop spreading rumors and prejudging the FPM official before any judicial order was issued.
The family hoped in a statement that the media would stop leaking information about Karam's arrest and questioning because he is still being interrogated by Lebanese authorities.
The family threatened to file lawsuits against media outlets that spread rumors and target "people's dignity." Media reports said Friday that Karam has admitted to spying for the Mossad and unveiled that he began collaborating with Israel in the early 1990s. As Safir newspaper said that a "human error" unveiled information that led to his arrest several days ago. It quoted sources as saying that Karam was using three mobile phone lines from different European countries that are immune against monitoring. A "mistake" unveiled the identity of one of the lines' user, the sources said, adding that Karam was using the number to contact Israel via Europe. The sources also stressed that Karam was neither arrested at his home in Zouk Michael, nor in the north. He was lured to a "security trap," they told As Safir, without giving details about the arrest. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 11:26

Bellemare Uncovers: Indictment Not Based on Conclusive Evidence
Naharnet/Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare has reportedly said that charges facing suspects in the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri are not based on conclusive evidence. As-Safir newspaper on Friday said Bellemare made the revelations before diplomats at the United Nations. According to a Western diplomatic source, the indictment will include in the first phase direct accusations against three Hizbullah members. As-Safir said Bellemare himself made this disclosure before a number of diplomats at the U.N. headquarters in New York. It quoted sources as saying that Bellemare uncovered that the indictment charges would extend to up to 20 party members. As-Safir said a report recently received by a Lebanese political side cites that diplomats who met Bellemare asked questions about the evidence upon which the STL Prosecutor relied on to accuse Hizbullah members.
Bellemare, according to the paper, replied that the charges are not based on "conclusive," but rather "circumstantial" evidence. The STL Prosecutor explained that circumstantial evidence was not based on direct witnesses but on "expert" witnesses. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 08:10

Fadlallah's Office: Wednesday First Day of Ramadan
Naharnet/Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah's office said that Wednesday is the first day of the holy fasting month of Ramadan. The date was chosen on the basis of astrological calculations in accordance with Islamic scientific rules. The Shiite Cleric died last month after a long battle with illness. For the month, Muslims are required to abstain from food, drink and sex from dawn until dusk as life slips into a lower gear during the day, and activity peaks between "iftar," the breaking of the fast at sunset, and "suhur," the last meal of the day before sunrise. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 12:22

Firefighters Douse Huge Fire in Sodeco Square Underground Floor
Naharnet/Firefighters doused on Friday a huge blaze at an underground depot of electric cables and wood in "Sodeco Square" center in Beirut's Ashrafiyeh district. Voice of Lebanon radio said the fire had engulfed the sixth floor below ground. However, firefighters prevented the spread of the blaze to power generators and nearby gas tanks. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 12:49

Report: Nasrallah to Unveil that Qazzi Allowed Israel to Manipulate Mobile Lines in Hariri Murder
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will reportedly unveil on Monday that Alfa employee Charbel Qazzi had given Israel a password that allowed it to manipulate mobile phone lines used in the assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri. El-Shark newspaper said Friday that during his news conference on Monday, Nasrallah would stress that the investigation into Hariri's Feb. 2005 murder took a wrong turn after Israelis manipulated the lines used for communication purposes among members of the assassination network. Qazzi is being interrogated by the authorities on charges of spying for Israel. According to the daily, Nasrallah would also remind the Lebanese that agent Ahmed Nasrallah, who currently resides in Israel, informed Hariri in 1992 that Hizbullah was planning to kill him. The leader of the plot at the time would have been slain Hizbullah Commander Imad Mughniyeh, el-Shark said. According to the daily, Nasrallah would show a tape that unveils secrets about Hizbullah operations. Sources did not unveil details about the tape or its link to Hariri's killing. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 12:03

Congress Likely to Stop U.S. Military Aid to Lebanese Army
Naharnet/Congress is likely to stop U.S. military assistance to the Lebaneese Armed Forces."It certainly is going to come up in our conversations in the Congress about the continued support of the Lebanese Army," Florida Republican Representative Ron Klein The Jerusalem Post. The Jerusalem Post said Klein and other Capitol Hill sources said the degree to which the Lebanese attack was sanctioned by army and government higher-ups and how those officials responded would inform the view Congress takes on assistance being considered for next year. That was a reference to Tuesday's border clash between the Lebanese and Israeli armies which left dead and wounded on both sides. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 08:21

Abu Moussa Warns against Israeli Attack on Lebanon Refugee Camps
Naharnet/Fatah-Uprising leader Abu Moussa warned against an Israeli attack on Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut and south Lebanon. Return of Palestinians "will not be through negotiations, and will not be recognized by the Zionist enemy until after it pays dearly and is forces to bow to the will of the Palestinian people," Abu Moussa said.His remarks came following talks with Lebanese officials. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 11:38

Ogero Using Israeli-Designed Tapping Software
Naharnet/In the aftermath of the July 2006 war, Ogero landline phone network sought a tender for the purchase a computer software called "mediation" which provides for the transfer of phone calls received from cellular phones to the landline network and vice versa, in addition to detailed bills, As-Safir newspaper reported Friday. This attracted bids from six top companies, As-Safir said, until a French firm finally got the tender. According to the daily, however, the French firm in turn put forward software that bears the name "Kabira" which operates under "Star Ventures," a leading Israeli venture capital fund. The newspaper said the identity of the Israeli company was not clear at first, but the low prices it offered stirred up doubt by a Lebanese company, prompting it to search for the firm's "family tree." Here's the surprise: well-known businessmen and Israeli officers are in charge of managing and financing Kabira. The ministry under Telecoms Minister Marwan Hamadeh at the time gave a simple explanation to the flow of inquirers: "We chose this bid because it was less by $3,000,000 compared to other tenders, without looking into the corporate identity." Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 10:47

Baroud Denies Informing Aoun that 5 of Close Aides are Suspected Spies
Naharnet/Interior Minister Ziad Baroud on Friday denied a report that he called Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun to inform him that five of his associates were under suspicion of spying for Israel. The interior ministry said in a statement that Baroud called Aoun only to inform him about the arrest of retired Brig. Gen. Fayez Karam, a top FPM official who is being questioned for his involvement in espionage. The statement came a day after Ad-Diyar daily said the minister had contacted the FPM leader to warn him that authorities were suspecting that five of his close aides were possibly collaborating with the Mossad. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 10:45

Lebanese Army Followed Orders to Open Fire at Israeli Troops
Naharnet/The Lebanese army was instructed to open fire at Israeli troops in the tree-pruning operation that triggered a deadly clash between Israeli and Lebanese troops, Israel News reported. It said that during a late Wednesday meeting between UNIFIL and representatives of the Lebanese and Israeli armies, Lebanese army officer Abdul Rahman Shaitli said soldiers who opened fire on Israeli troops Tuesday were following instructions. "Soldiers are instructed to open fire. This is the army's decision," he was quoted as saying. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 10:07

UNESCO Concerned by Abu Rahal's Death, Urges Restraint
Naharnet/UNESCO has expressed concern over the death of al-Akhbar daily's reporter Assaf Abu Rahal in an Israeli attack on the Lebanese army post in Adaisseh. "I am deeply concerned about the circumstances in which Assaf Abu Rahal was killed and his colleague Ali Shoaib injured," Director-General of UNESCO, Irina Bokova, said in a statement. "I call on all parties involved to make every effort to shed light on the causes of this tragic incident, and to make sure it does not happen again by showing more restraint," she said. "I would further underline that freedom of expression, a fundamental human right, implies the possibility of exercising this right in safety. Armed forces are obligated to respect it," Bokova added. Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 08:41

U.S. Again Cites Iranian Support for Hizbullah, Hamas, Militants in Iraq, Afghanistan
Naharnet/The State Department kept the same countries on the list as it did in 2008 -- Iran, Sudan, Cuba and Syria -- with Iran again listed as the "most active state sponsor of terrorism."
It cited Iranian support for militants in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In an annual report, the U.S. said that despite major setbacks, al-Qaida's core in Pakistan is the "most formidable" terrorist group threatening the United States, along with affiliates in Yemen and Africa.
the State Department said it also learned that Americans were not immune to the lure of Islamist militancy, with some of them hooking up last year with radicals in Pakistan and Somalia.
"Al-Qaida's core in Pakistan remained during 2009 the most formidable terrorist organization targeting the United States," the State Department's counter-terrorism coordinator Daniel Benjamin told reporters. "It has proven to be an adaptable and resilient terrorist group whose desire to attack the United States and US interests abroad remains strong," Benjamin said, reading from the Country Reports on Terrorism 2009. "We assess that al-Qaida was actively engaged in operational planning against the United States and continued recruiting, training and deploying operatives, including individuals from Western Europe and North America." Al-Qaida, from its safe haven in Pakistan, is helping train and fund the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, which "remained resilient in the south and east and expanded its presence into the north and west," the report said. In Afghanistan, despite some heavy losses among militants and their leaders, the Taliban's "ability to recruit foot soldiers from its core base of rural Pashtuns remained undiminished," the report said.
In Pakistan, there was still "rising militancy and extremism," it warned.
Al-Qaida militants, Afghan insurgents and others, it said, are using "safe havens" in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Baluchistan, the North West Frontier Province, southern Punjab, and other parts of Pakistan. But Benjamin repeated the U.S. contention that Pakistan is now working hard to tackle the threat from militants, after charges that its ISI intelligence service has backed them as a foil to perceived threats from neighboring India. The report said al-Qaida has reeled under a Pakistani military onslaught, lost many of its leaders, and now finds it "tougher to raise money, train recruits and plan attacks" outside Pakistan and Afghanistan. It also said al-Qaida has suffered from a Muslim public backlash as its militants and allies have staged indiscriminate attacks, hitting Muslims in Algeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and elsewhere.
"Yet despite these setbacks, the al-Qaida threat was more dispersed than in recent years, which partially offset the losses suffered by al-Qaida's core," the report said.
U.S. drone strikes have also reportedly killed al-Qaida leaders. Its attempted Christmas Day bombing of a US airliner en route to Detroit showed "that at least one Al-Qaeda affiliate has developed not just the desire but also the capability to launch a strike against the United States," the report said. That plot was determined to have been hatched in Yemen with the help of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a Yemeni affiliate. "Al-Qaida's other most active affiliates were in Africa," the report said.
In north Africa's Sahel, militants from sl-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb abducted foreign nationals, sometimes with the help of area tribesmen and nomads.
In Somalia, al-Qaida's allies in the Shebab "controlled significant tracts of territory" while several leaders of the group "have publicly proclaimed loyalty" to a-Qaida.
And there is a need now to worry about American terrorists.
"The assumption that Americans have some special immunity to al-Qaida's ideology was dispelled," Benjamin said. "While our overall domestic radicalization problem remained significantly less than in many Western nations, several high-profile cases demonstrate that we must remain vigilant," he added.
The report recalled that five Americans from Virginia were arrested in Pakistan on suspicion of ties to militant groups, while Americans have joined the Shebab in Somalia.
Benjamin said US citizens are also becoming "proponents of violent extremism," including the very prominent Yemeni American Anwar Al-Awlaki, a leader of AQAP.
But he also cited native Californian Adam Gadahn, who has become an al-Qaida spokesman, and Omar Hammami, an American who grew up in Alabama and has become "an important Al-Shebab voice on the Internet." In a statistical annex to the report, the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) said 10,999 terrorist attacks occurred in 83 countries, resulting in 14,971 deaths. In the previous year, there were 11,727 attacks worldwide, with 15,727 deaths, according to the NCTC.(AFP) Beirut, 06 Aug 10, 06:37

Jumblatt warns of STL being usurped by US, Israeli interests
By Elias Sakr /Daily Star staff
Friday, August 06, 2010
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader MP Walid Jumblatt sounded a warning on Thursday against attempts to politicize the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) and cautioned against instigating strife in Lebanon in favor of US and Israeli interests. “Why strife? Strife to neutralize Lebanon, disrupt Lebanese-Syrian ties and push the region into a cycle of violence that is in the interest of Israel and the US. This is my conclusion,” Jumblatt said in a news conference at his residence in Clemenceau. Jumblatt highlighted that former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination in 2005 served the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon after 29 years of military presence. “To implement such an international resolution required a quake and an incident as big as martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, which led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops following the great opposition to Syria back then,” Jumblatt said.
Following Hariri’s assassination, Jumblatt was one of the leading parliamentary majority figures who accused Damascus of involvement in the murder and pressured for the implementation of Resolution 1559. Damascus denied any involvement in the crime. “It is no secret that I was among those who accused Syria of the assassination. We made political accusations and then it turned out that all those accusations were based on nothing … I could barely say accusations were based on false witnesses who manipulated the truth,” he added.
The PSP leader said accusations against Syria shifted toward Hizbullah, starting in 2009 when Western media suggested the party’s involvement in the assassination.
Israeli officials made the accusations public last month and claimed that the STL would issue the impending indictment against Hizbullah members in September, 2010.
Jumblatt stressed that he continued to support the STL but added that he feared “it would be used for [reasons] other than its principal purposes.”
Asked whether he backed Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s accusation that Israel is behind Hariri’s murder, Jumblatt said “when we hear the Israeli claims about the STL and reports on Western and Israeli attempts to instigate strife, it intersects with Sayyed Nasrallah’s stance.” On Tuesday, Nasrallah openly accused Israel of the assassination and said he would unveil proof to that effect at a news conference next week. “I accuse the Israeli enemy of the assassination of [Former] Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and … I will prove this by unveiling sensitive information at a press conference on Monday,” Nasrallah said. On another note, Jumblatt stressed that the resistance’s weapons were essential as long as the Lebanese Army lacked the necessary equipment to challenge Israel. Jumblatt called on the Cabinet to increase the state’s military budget to equip the army as he voiced support for the acquisition of weapons from any country, saying Western military aid was conditional. Clashes on Tuesday between the Lebanese Army and Israeli troops that killed two Lebanese soldiers and a journalist, as well as an Israeli lieutenant colonel, prompted Israeli officials Wednesday to blame the US and France for providing military aid to the Lebanese Army.
The Israeli Cabinet said it was preparing to launch a diplomatic campaign to urge Western countries to refrain from providing advanced equipment to the Lebanese Army, claiming that it could fall into Hizbullah’s hands. Commenting on the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, Jumblatt said the peacekeeping forces were welcome in southern Lebanon but added that he had hoped they would have supported the Lebanese Army during Tuesday’s border clashes.

US praises Lebanese Armed Forces in annual terror report
By Richard Hall /Daily Star staff
Friday, August 06, 2010
BEIRUT: The US State Department commended the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Thursday for their efforts in containing sectarian violence and in capturing wanted terrorist fugitives over the past year. Despite Lebanese security agencies being kept on high-alert by terrorist activity throughout the year, 2009 was characterized by “increased governmental efforts to disrupt suspected terrorist cells before they could act,” according to the US State Department’s annual “Country Reports on Terrorism” publication.
The State Department also noted the role of the LAF in the peaceful passing of the June 7 parliamentary polls, an event it describes as “widely considered vulnerable to politically motivated violence.”The Lebanese government was able to strengthen its presence across the country, the report said, including stronger monitoring in and around Palestinian refugee camps.
Iran, one of four countries designated as state sponsors of terrorism, provided backing for extremists in its region that “had a direct impact on international efforts to promote peace, threatened economic stability in the Gulf, jeopardized the tenuous peace in southern Lebanon, and undermined the growth of democracy,” the State Department said.
Syria’s role in Lebanon and the region was also of concern to the US in the past year, as it
“provided political and material support to Hizbullah in Lebanon and allowed Iran to resupply this organization with weapons, and provided a safe-haven as well as political and other support to a number of designated Palestinian terrorist groups.” The US government remained concerned with Hizbullah’s stated intent to retaliate for the 2008 killing of Hizbullah official Imad Mughniyeh, adding that “Hizbullah continued its acquisition of smuggled arms, primarily via Iran and Syria, in violation of UN Resolution 1701.” Problems with security along the Syria-Lebanon border were highlighted, with the report stating that the government of Lebanon still does not exercise control over parts of the border. Al-Qaeda’s core leadership in Pakistan remains the most formidable terrorist threat to the US homeland and Al-Qaeda’s growing presence across Africa challenges many states, the State Department report said.
Worldwide, terrorist attacks and their death toll in 2009 were at their lowest levels in some four years. Terrorists carried out 10,999 attacks worldwide in 2009, the lowest number in five years and down from a recent high of 14,443 in 2006. In 2009, 14,971 people died in terrorist attacks, the State Department reported, down from recent high of 22,736 in 2006.
Al-Qaeda, the group behind the September 11 attacks, “has proven to be an adaptable and resilient terrorist group whose desire to attack the United States and US interests abroad remains strong,” it said. The Taliban-led insurgency that US troops are fighting in Afghanistan got funding and training from Al-Qaeda and “remained resilient in the south and east and expanded its presence into the north and west,” it said. – With Reuters

Analysts say no war likely on Lebanon-Israel border – for now
Hizbullah’s absence in clashes points to party’s ‘lack of readiness’
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, August 06, 2010 /Rana Moussaoui
BEIRUT: An escalation along the Lebanese-Israeli border is unlikely despite this week’s deadly clashes as all parties, including Hizbullah, appear keen on containing the situation, at least for now, analysts say. “Israel and Hizbullah had a golden opportunity to fight it out and Hizbullah would have had a perfect alibi to say they were defending the country,” said Ghassan Azzi, political science professor at the Lebanese University (LU). “But I don’t think the war is for tomorrow as it’s not the right time,” Azzi told AFP.
Tuesday’s flare-up along the volatile border between Lebanese and Israeli troops – over an operation to uproot a tree – marked the worst fighting in the area since Lebanon’s 2006 summer war with Israel. The clashes, which left four people dead, illustrated the high tension in the region and how a small incident could potentially escalate into all-out war.
But the subsequent measured response by all the parties also showed that no one wants a fight, at least for now. “In the near future, I don’t see an escalation,” said Oussama Safa, head of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “It is not a Lebanese Army corporal who is going to start the war in the south,” he added.
“It is way beyond that and the factors for that war aren’t there yet.” The Israeli military believes the shootout was sparked by a lone Lebanese Army officer who was not acting on orders from higher-ups, Israeli defense experts said. Analysts pointed out that Hizbullah, by far the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, on Tuesday had stayed out of the clashes that took place in a region largely under their control in a move that shows it is not ready for war.
“Hizbullah is trying very smartly to get as much mileage as possible out of this,” Safa said. “They have said they are ready [for battle] … but the timing is absolutely theirs.”
He added that had the militant group, backed by Syria and Iran, stepped into the fray on Tuesday it would have provoked a regional conflict. “Fighting along with the army would mean war and this is not on the table right now,” he said. Israel, which considers Hizbullah its number-one enemy in Lebanon and is keen on neutralizing the party’s military capacity, also showed restraint after Tuesday’s skirmish. “One must act in such a way that a local incident does not degenerate into a full-blown crisis,” Defence Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday.
“I hope there will be no escalation, that we will have a calm summer and that things will return to normal.” The Brussels-based International Crisis Group said in a report released this week that it was clear that the calm that has prevailed in the Israeli-Lebanese arena since the end of the 2006 summer war reflected fears that the next conflict would be far more devastating.
“None of the most directly relevant actors – Israel, Hizbullah, Syria and Iran – relishes this prospect, so all, for now, are intent on keeping their powder dry,” the report said.

Khamenei’s adviser meets with Lebanese leaders
By The Daily Star /Friday, August 06, 2010
BEIRUT: Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolution leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, arrived in Beirut on Thursday to participate in the Islamic Radios and Televisions Union convention. Velayati met with the country’s political leaders, and discussed recent security developments, confirming Iran’s support to the Resistance and accusing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) of being in the hands of Israel. Velayati arrived in Beirut from Tehran upon receiving an invitation from the Islamic Press Association to participate in the convention. He was received at Rafik Hariri International Airport by Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Shami and Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Rukn Abadi.
Velayati addressed journalists upon his arrival and stressed that the main goal of his visit was to attend the convention. However, he said it also came in the framework of developing good relations between the two countries and discussing the latest developments in the region. “We believe the fraternal relation between Iran and Lebanon is very important, especially after the recent Zionist attack on the Lebanese. We voice our strong support to the Lebanese Resistance and we see bilateral relations as having a positive role in bringing peace to the region,” he said. Clashes erupted between Israeli and Lebanese troops on the border on Tuesday, after Israeli soldiers tried to uproot a tree on the Lebanese side.
Three Lebanese were killed in the fighting. Velayati went on to tackle the role of the STL and reports about an alleged involvement by Hizbullah in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. “The STL is now in the hands of Israel and its allies. We recall that after the assassination of Hariri, Syria was accused and this accusation lasted four years. Today the blame has been shifted toward Hizbullah and the Islamic Resistance. Just as [Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah denied any involvement by Hizbullah, we believe this court is in the hands of the US and Zionism,” he said. Velayati held talks on Thursday with Nasrallah. Velayati was also received by President Michel Sleiman, to whom he offered his condolences for the deaths of two Lebanese troops and a journalist during Tuesday’s clashes with Israel. Velayati also underlined the importance of Arab leaders visiting Lebanon, namely Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Qatari Prince Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani. Sleiman thanked Iran for its support, especially after the summer 2006 war with Israel, and he hoped bilateral relations would be reinforced by the future visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Velayati also met with Speaker Nabih Berri and voiced his relief that the Resistance and the Lebanese people and their government were more in harmony and unity. “This unity blocks the road for the conspiracies weaved by Lebanon’s enemies,” he said. – The Daily Star

Southern security officials discuss Israeli threat
By The Daily Star /Friday, August 06, 2010
BEIRUT: Nabatiyeh and South Lebanon security councils held a joint meeting on Thursday to discuss emergency security measures, in addition to discussing current affairs.
Nabatiyeh Governor Mahmoud al-Mawla and South Lebanon Governor Nicolas Abu Daher presided over the meeting of their regions’ security councils, which was held at the Sidon Serail. Local security officials were present at the discussions, in addition to South Lebanon Public Prosecutor Samih al-Hajj and Nabatieh Public Prosecutor Afif al-Hakim.
The meeting kicked off by tackling the fire exchange that occurred on Tuesday between Israeli and Lebanese troops, after Israeli soldiers tried to uproot a tree on Lebanese soil. Two Lebanese soldiers and a Lebanese journalist were killed as well as a senior Israeli officer. Those who attended the meeting paid their condolences to the Lebanese Army and to journalists in general, before discussing the ways the country should “face the current events in the south and preparations for possible future security incidents,” according to the State-run National News Agency. Officials at the southern city of Sidon also held a similar gathering a day earlier to prepare their region for any possible future clashes. The two councils also touched upon preparations for the coming holiday of Ramadan and the need to limit the use of fireworks during this month. They also discussed the abuse of the internet and praised the efforts of security forces in stopping internet violations. “This issue needs to be regulated by a legal text,” the gathered agreed. They also discussed stopping illegal construction work and stressed the need to implement the law, all the while meeting the people’s needs. – The Daily Star

Nazareth court charges three with spying for Syria
By Agence France Presse (AFP) and The Daily Star
Friday, August 06, 2010 /OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: An Arab Israeli and two Druze residents of the occupied Golan Heights were charged Thursday with spying for Syria and planning a kidnapping, officials said. The three men were charged in a Nazareth court with “aggravated espionage,” for allegedly passing information on Israeli submarine movements to Syrian intelligence and plotting to drug a Syrian pilot who defected to Israel and spirit him over the border, according to court documents. Fidaa al-Shaar and his father Majid al-Shaar from Majdal Shams in the Golan and Mahmud Massaweh from the northern Israeli village of Baka al-Gharbiyeh were “charged with spying and having contact with the enemy,” police spokesman Mickey Rosenfeld told AFP. The three are also suspected of having passed on video footage of Israeli military bases in the country, Rosenfeld said.
Ran Balter, an official from the public prosecutor’s office, said they had been remanded in custody until further notice. “At some stage in 2007 or 2006, contact was made between one of them and a Syrian government official,” he told Israeli public radio, saying Fidaa al-Shaar had “transmitted messages” while studying in Syria. His father had held several meetings in Jordan and Turkey, and co-defendant Massaweh had meetings in Jordan and Cairo over the course of three years, Balter said.
He said the defendants communicated from abroad via video calls and instant messaging and had used special code words like “the bride” and “the shark.”
“The bride is the man they thought was the pilot, the shark was reports on the submarine,” he said, saying police had found syringes and substances with which to anaesthetize the pilot who defected to Israel in 1989 with his MiG fighter. “The evidence is very strong – there are confessions,” he said. However, a lawyer for the two Golan residents denied his clients had confessed to espionage. “They admit contact with this agent, but he is not an agent, he is an old family friend that moved back to Syria and now works for Syrian government,” Nabih Khanjar told AFP. However, he conceded that they may have passed on sensitive information. “It is possible that this friendship was manipulated to get information from them without their knowledge,” Khanjar said. Police arrested Fidaa al-Shaar in Majdal Shams on July 12, but all details about his arrest and those of the other two were initially the subject of a court-issued gag order. Majdal Shams is the main town on the Golan Heights which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel unilaterally annexed the Golan in 1981 in a move never recognized by the international community. The vast majority of the 18,000 Syrians, mostly Druze, left from the Golan’s original population of 150,000 have refused to take Israeli citizenship. In other news, the London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Hayat reported Sunday that French President Nicolas Sarkozy plans to appoint the former ambassador to Damascus, Jean-Claude Cousseran, as a mediator in charge of handling future negotiations between Israel and Syria. Cousseran, who has served as Paris’ ambassador to Beirut, has also previously headed France’s foreign intelligence service, as well as the Middle East and North African division of France’s Foreign Service. According to the news report, Cousseran was designated to mediate negotiations between Israel and Syria since both Israel and Syria are likely to approve of him. – AFP, with The Daily Star

Why the summer war of 2006 was unnecessary
By Victor Kattan /Friday, August 06, 2010
Israel’s relatively muted reaction to its border clash with Lebanese troops on Tuesday – in which killed an Israeli reserve battalion commander, two Lebanese soldiers and a civilian Lebanese journalist were killed – is rather intriguing. For it provides an indication that the summer war of 2006 need not have happened. Then, as now, other options were available to Israel, which could have responded differently had it wished to do so. Israel evidently did not need to escalate the situation by going to war against Lebanon four years ago as it need not do so now. Rather Israel’s bombardment and invasion of Lebanon in 2006 was a war of choice and of convenience. As the Winograd Committee set up by the government of Israel to investigate the causes of the war in 2006 admitted, “in making the decision to go to war, the government [of Israel] did not consider the whole range of options, including that of continuing the policy of ‘containment,’ or combining political and diplomatic moves with military strikes below the ‘escalation level,’ or military preparations without immediate military action.”
The events which precipitated the conflict in 2006 – not too dissimilar to Tuesday’s events – amounted to a frontier dispute which usually falls outside the scope of self-defense under the UN Charter. Indeed international tribunals have rarely considered frontier disputes that do not seriously threaten the territorial integrity and political independence of a state an adequate justification for armed conflict. This is even if the incident leads to the loss of life as the Permanent Court of Arbitration concluded in their Partial Award in the case between Eritrea-Ethiopia at the Claims Commission. It can also be difficult to ascertain the precise location of an armed confrontation, especially if the area in question is in a demilitarized zone where there is a sovereignty dispute.
Moreover, if a border incident can be invoked to justify war then it can also risk sparking a wider military confrontation. One need only think of the tensions between India and Pakistan, China and Taiwan, North and South Korea, Greece and Turkey, as well as Russia and Georgia to realize the danger.
Lebanon claims that the latest incident took place on its side of the border, while Israel says otherwise. As Brian Whitaker writing in The Guardian observed, the problem with the fence that the Israelis erected following their withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 was that it did not follow the border line exactly. “In places, they adjusted the route for convenience and military reasons. As a result, various pockets of what is still legally Israeli territory lie on the Lebanese side of the fence. The Israelis call them ‘enclaves’ and don’t always see eye to eye with the Lebanese government about their extent and location.”
Even if it turns out that the attack took place on Israel’s side of the line, and even if the fire came from Lebanese Army units under the influence of Hizbullah, as alleged by Avital Leibovich, the Israeli military spokesperson, it would make little difference. War should always be a measure of last resort, and not the first remedy.
Israel has a history of overreacting to the slightest of provocations, which in this part of the world can quickly escalate. The latest hostilities on the border differ slightly from events four years ago, however, in that it was between Israeli and Lebanese troops, not with Hizbullah. This might be because UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called on the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL to establish an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons from the Blue Line to the Litani River in the hope of preventing Hizbullah from operating there. In contrast, in July 2006, Israel alleged that Hizbullah commandos had entered its territory, capturing two soldiers. This provoked Israel to send a group of soldiers into Lebanon in hot pursuit. After the Israeli soldiers crossed the Lebanese border they were killed in an ambush by Hizbullah when their tank drove over a mine. Three soldiers were killed in the initial operation, four by the mine, and another in the rescue mission. In response, Israel launched Operation Change of Direction in which Israel’s then-army Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, threatened to “turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years.”
What is not disputed is that Operation Change of Direction led to 34 days of armed conflict between Israel and Hizbullah mostly within Lebanese territory in which over 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed as well as 162 Israelis, of whom 119 were Israeli military personnel. According to a report by Amnesty International the Israeli Air Force destroyed 30,000 Lebanese homes, 120 bridges, 94 roads and 24 fuel stations. Israel’s targets included the bridges linking the north and the south of Lebanon, all three runways of Rafik Hariri International Airport, and the offices of the Al-Manar Television. Israeli warships also barred merchant vessels from leaving or entering the coast of Lebanon. Hizbullah responded by firing thousands of rockets into northern Israel with some reaching the city of Haifa. When a ceasefire was declared on August 14, at 8 am local time, there were some 30,000 Israeli troops stationed inside Lebanon, south of the Litani River.
This time one hopes that calmer heads will prevail. The political situation is extremely tense in Lebanon at the moment. Only last week King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Bashar Assad of Syria met in Beirut to stress the importance of regional stability and the commitment of the Lebanese not to resort to violence. They stressed that the country’s interests took precedence over sectarian interests and urged the Lebanese to resolve their issues through legal institutions. This was probably an allusion to rumors first reported in Der Spiegel and recently cited by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon – established to try all those responsible for the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri in 2005 – is about to issue arrest warrants for “rogue members” of Hizbullah.
A new war between Israel and Hizbullah would only strengthen the position of the latter organization whose Cabinet ministers are in a rather embarrassing and precarious position at the moment having to share power in government with the son of the father that their Party of God is alleged to have killed.
**Victor Kattan is a Teaching Fellow at the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. You can view his blog at www.victorkattan.com.

Aoun ‘shocked’ to learn Karam spied for Mossad
By The Daily Star/Friday, August 06, 2010
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said Thursday the arrest of an FPM official on suspicion of spying for Israel was “not surprising, but it is the suspect’s identity that shocked us.” Aoun made his comments in reference to FPM official and former Lebanese Army General Fayez Karam’s arrest on Tuesday on suspicion of collaborating with Israel. “Falling [to temptations] is human and whoever does not believe that is naive, but it was the identity of the person that shocked us,” Aoun said. “After the incident, we are stronger and the issue will not affect our trust in one another.” Karam, who is close to Aoun, has been the FPM official responsible for north Lebanon since 2005, when he returned to Lebanon from exile in France with the former general a month after Syria withdrew its troops following a 29-year occupation of the country. Karam, 62, was head of the Lebanese Army’s anti-spying department prior to his arrest by the Syrian Army in 1990. He reportedly fled to France via Israel after he was released from prison in Syria.  On Thursday, media reports said the Information Department of the Internal Security Forces arrested Karam, who has confessed to collaborating with Israeli agents. But conflicting reports have emerged regarding ongoing investigations to determine the timeframe during which Karam collaborated with Israel. Political foes of the FPM, the Lebanese Forces (LF) and the Phalange Party, stressed Thursday the need to wait for the outcome of probes with Karam rather than address the issue in the media. “I say the suspect is innocent until proven guilty as I do not believe much in security and media leaks,” said Phalange Party MP Elie Marouni. What is needed is not to rush into issuing judgments and to refrain from comments awaiting the truth from official investigation sources,” LF MP Antoine Zahra said. Marouni went further to defend the FPM as he stressed that if proven guilty, Karam’s spying activities do not convict his party. “If Karam confesses and is proven guilty, I do not believe that [his acts] condemn the FPM since a spy in a certain party does not mean the party is a collaborator,” he added. – The Daily Star

Israel, Hizballah, and Iran: Rumors of Another Regional War
by Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
August 4, 2010
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2010/leverett050810.html
Yesterday's fighting on the Israeli-Lebanese border has intensified commentators' already quite heightened rhetoric about the risk of another armed conflict between Israel, on one side, and some combination of Hizballah, Syria, HAMAS, and Iran, on the other side. The risk of another regional war needs to be evaluated, at least in part, through the prism of Israel's established national security strategy.
We have written previously, on www.RaceForIran.com and elsewhere, about what we see as deeply problematic aspects of Israel's national security strategy. Our analysis focuses not simply on the determination of Israeli political and policy elites to preserve a regional balance of power that is strongly tilted in Israel's favor. More specifically, we focus on an entrenched strategic posture built on the proposition that Israel's very survival depends on its ability to use force unilaterally, whenever and wherever it wants, for whatever purpose it favors.
In the context of the Israeli-Lebanese border, this strategic posture inevitably exacerbates the risks of conflict in an already volatile environment. Two recent pieces of analysis consider the risks of another regional war arising from tensions and perceived threats in the Israeli-Lebanese theatre. These reports also make recommendations on how to prevent war's outbreak and minimize the damage should a conflict occur.
One of these pieces is A Third Lebanon War, a so-called Contingency Planning Memorandum, written by our former colleague in the U.S. Government, Daniel Kurtzer. The other is Drums of War: Israel and the "Axis of Resistance," a report by the International Crisis Group.
The ICG report lays out the course of Israel's "after action" assessment and strategic planning since the 2006 Lebanon war:
For Israeli political and military planners, the outcome of the Lebanese and Gaza wars produced mixed messages. Israel displayed overpowering military might and inflicted enormous damage and destruction. In neither conflict, however, could it be said to have produced a clear-cut victory and, in both, the duration and intensity and the substantial harm suffered by civilians produced strong international pressure and condemnation that risked limiting the future margin of maneuver of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). In part, this reflected difficulties in adjusting Israel's traditional military doctrine -- based inter alia on the use of force in enemy territory, preventive and preemptive action and quick achievement of specific, limited aims -- to asymmetric forms of warfare against non-state actors operating from urban areas.
The conclusion many strategists appear to have reached -- and publicized -- is that another confrontation would likely be much the same, only with greater intensity in order to "reduce the period of fighting to a minimum and to create and effective balance of deterrence". In the words of a former defense official, "our hope is that Hizbollah will not attempt anything, for fear that Israel will inflict an even more powerful retaliatory strike in response to even a small move. Israel's interest is to maintain maximum ambiguity in terms of how far it might be willing to go". . . . The new proposed strategy is known as the "Dahiya doctrine", named after a southern Beirut neighborhood harboring key Hizbollah assets and officials that was thoroughly devastated in 2006.
So, in other words, the Israelis have "doubled down" on their established strategy. And, while this strategy is couched in terms of "deterrence" (a frequently used word in Israeli military vocabulary), the Israeli concept of deterrence is taken to include, as the ICG describes, "preventive and preemptive action" -- which means initiating the use of force in the absence of any specific provocation by the adversary.
The ICG report then explains how Hizballah has responded to these developments:
Since [the 2006 war], Hassan Nasrallah, the movement's secretary general, has pledged to respond in kind to any Israeli action. In mid-2009, he warned that, unlike in the past, Hizbollah would respond to any Israeli strike against Beirut -- including against its own southern suburb stronghold -- with equivalent targeting of Tel Aviv. In February 2010, he made the broader claim that any damage inflicted upon Lebanon would be matched with equal damage in Israel -- an airport for an airport; a factory for a factory. In May, in the aftermath of large-scale Iranian naval maneuvers in the Gulf, he vowed to attack all Israel-bound ships were Israel to subject Lebanon to a naval blockade, as it did in 2006. . . . Much of this could be dismissed as bravado, threats intended both to boost militants' moral and deter any Israeli operation. Still, Nasrallah typically has sought to maintain his credibility by delivering on his promises, and Israeli officials take the threats seriously, based on their belief that Hizbollah now possesses as system of long-range missiles that can reach far south.
We were in Lebanon in February 2010, just days after the Nasrallah speech referenced by the ICG. As we wrote at the time on www.RaceForIran.com, the prevalent reading of Nasrallah's speech in Western and pro-Saudi media outlets as "throwing down the gauntlet" to Israel and inviting war
is diametrically opposed to the prevailing local interpretation of the Hizballah leader's rhetoric. In his address, Nasrallah stressed that, while Hizballah would respond to any Israeli aggression, it does not seek war. Nasrallah noted that, "since July 2006, nothing has happened on the South Lebanon front". A prominent Hizballah parliamentarian described Nasrallah's speech as "historic and crucial", underscoring that, while Hizballah was not fearful of another war, it was not seeking one. Another Lebanese politician with close ties to Nasrallah told us that, the day after the speech, people throughout south Lebanon "breathed a sigh of relief" because, in their perception, the Hizballah leader's speech had substantially reduced the risk of conflict with Israel over the next several months.
Just last month, we came back from another visit to Lebanon still persuaded that Hizballah's current posture toward Israel is focused on deterrence of a classical sort -- that is, on deterring the first use of military force by Israel, through the credible threat of a "second strike" that Israeli political leaders would consider unacceptable, so that they would therefore refrain from initiating military conflict. Yesterday's events on the Israeli-Lebanese border do not in any way contradict that assessment.
It is highly unlikely that those who fired from the Lebanese side were Hizballah fighters. Rather, they were almost certainly members of the Lebanese Armed Forces. And that means it is highly unlikely that the exchange was deliberately engineered -- at least, not on the Lebanese side. (There is also, as far as we know, no evidence supporting an assessment that the incident was deliberately engineered on the Israeli side.)
It would, of course, be a fine thing to see the whole Levant demilitarized -- but that is not likely to happen until the underlying political conflicts between Israel and its neighbors have been resolved. In the meantime, if Israel does not want Hizballah to launch missiles against Israeli targets, it should not attack Lebanon.
That seems straightforward enough, but here reality runs up against the logic of Israel's grand strategy. Because Israel's grand strategy means that it is not enough simply to keep Israel's enemies from attacking it. Israeli strategy means that Israel should be able to use force first against targets in Lebanon -- or in Iran and/or Syria -- without fear of a significant retaliatory response. And that is where Hizballah's deterrent posture becomes a real problem for Israeli strategic planners.
Dan Kurtzer's piece -- in many respects, a quite sound analytic exercise -- recognizes this dynamic. As Dan writes,
There are two plausible scenarios for war in Lebanon. First, Hezbollah could initiate hostilities. . . . Hezbollah likely would argue that it was responding to Israeli overflights or an incident on the border that resulted in Lebanese casualties. Hezbollah has so far shown little predisposition to do this -- it ignored Israel's recent firing of flares during an incident on the border and it has not reacted to persistent Israeli overflights of Lebanon. . . .
Second, Israel could attack Hezbollah or lure it into a war to destroy capabilities that threaten Israel's security. Israel could also decide to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities in order to deny Iran a "second-strike" capability should Israel decide to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel could also use a conflict with Hezbollah as the catalyst and cover for an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. Any of these circumstances could persuade Israel that a preventive military strike against Hezbollah is in its interest.
Of the two scenarios, the second is the more likely. Hezbollah has probably already breached the limits of what Israel considers acceptable behavior. The sheer number and enhanced quality of rockets Hezbollah has acquired in the past few years worry Israeli defense and homeland security planners, as does the effort by Hezbollah to acquire longer-range and more accurate surface-to-surface missiles. . . . Another Israeli "red line" is Hezbollah's acquisition of advanced surface-to-air missiles . . . which would reduce Israel's air superiority over Lebanon. Israel views its reconnaissance missions over Lebanon as critical in light of the failure . . . to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701. It also views as critical its ability to establish aerial dominance in the event of another war. The combination of these three factors -- the size and quality of Hezbollah's missile inventory; the possible acquisition of long-range, accurate missiles; and the possible upgrading of Hezbollah's surface-to-air missile capability -- changes the equilibrium on the ground to an extent that Israel views as threatening.
We agree with Dan that a situation in which Israel might not be able to violate Lebanese air space or attack Lebanese targets -- from the air or on the ground -- whenever it wants "changes the equilibrium on the ground to an extent that Israel views as threatening." Unfortunately, Dan buys into and legitimates the Israeli argument on this point, stating categorically that "Israel's security is increasingly threatened by Hezbollah's rearmament, and the United States must respect its legitimate right of self-defense." He goes on to argue that the United States needs to recognize that "periodic wars in Lebanon may be inevitable to deal with continued Hezbollah threats in the future." On this basis, Dan recommends, among other prospective actions, that Washington
publicly restate U.S. support for Israel's right of self-defense and U.S. concerns about Hezbollah's rearmament. Israel has legitimate security concerns about Hezbollah and Syrian/Iranian activities in Lebanon, and the United States should be clear that it understands Israel's position. . . . This message should be designed to deter Hezbollah from acting, as well as to assure Israel of its security needs.
This is an especially curious recommendation as, earlier in the paper, Dan notes that, once it has decided on its policy, "the United States needs to send a clear message to Israel," for "[h]istory shows that Israel will read U.S. ambiguity as supporting its own views." If the United States publicly restates its "support for Israel's right of self-defense and U.S. concerns about Hezbollah's rearmament," as Dan recommends, how would the Israelis read that message -- except as the proverbial U.S. "green light" for Israel to initiate the use of force under the rubric of "preventive or preemptive war"?
We continue to believe that the Israelis are not likely to initiate a new war, not against Iran and probably not in Lebanon either, at least in the near term -- that is, at least through the end of the year. As we have written previously, we estimate that Israel is playing a longer game, working to lay the groundwork for military action against Iran, and perhaps other adversaries, in the medium term -- perhaps in the next 12-18 months. Nevertheless, we cannot categorically rule out a decision to use force by Israel at some point to deal with its Hizballah "problem," perhaps as a preparatory step for eventual military action against Iran.
In this regard, both papers also take up the question of how "broad" a new regional war would be. The ICG report includes an interesting discussion of the degree to which Iran, Syria, and Hizballah are planning ahead and coordinating their prospective responses to an Israeli attack. It also notes a number of factors which have come together to render Israel's previous willingness to limit its military operations to south Lebanon and largely ignore Lebanese state institutions "obsolete":
Hizbollah retains a strong presence south of the Litani River -- its traditional preserve -- and, according to Israel, has stored vast quantities of weapons and fighters in southern Lebanon. . . . At the same time, Hizbollah has redeployed at least part of its assets to a second line of defense, notably in the eastern Bekaa Valley. Should Israel decide to go after Hizbollah and seek to durably impair its military capacity, it almost certainly would need to extend the fight to that area. . . . Moreover, Hizbollah is more embedded in the Lebanese state than ever, greatly diminishing Israel's willingness to distinguish between the two. The Shiite movement is now fully integrated in the government and enjoys better relations with most of its former domestic foes. As the relationship between the state and the militant organization evolved from confrontation to accommodation over the past five years, Israeli officials made it increasingly clear that the central government would, as Defense Minister Ehud Barak put it, be held "accountable" for Hizballah's acts. . . . Further enhancing the risks of a broader conflagration, Israel is increasingly likely to extend a war across the Syrian border.
Dan also notes the real possibilities that an Israeli air campaign against Hizballah in Lebanon "could be followed up with a ground invasion" and that Israel could "attack facilities and weapon storage sites in Syria that it claims Hezbollah is using." However, while not completely dismissing the possibility, Dan judges it "unlikely that Israel would strike Iran during a Hezbollah crisis; a possible strike against Iran would require the utmost concentration of resources by Israel, and Israeli planners would not want to be engaged on the ground in Lebanon while conducting a risky and complicated mission against Iran."
As we have written before, this is a situation that cries out for constructive leadership by the United States -- first of all, with Israel. Dan describes very well what such an approach would look like in action:
The United Sates could tell Israel privately at the highest level that it would not support an Israeli-initiated war and would withhold diplomatic or military support if Israel chose to attack Hezbollah. Specifically, the United States could threaten to initiate or support a UN Security Council resolution directed against Israel, should Israel start a war.
But Dan also goes on to tell us why that is not likely to happen -- certainly not with President Obama in the Oval Office:
Israel would likely mobilize its supporters in the United States to push back against the administration, and the Obama administration would face a firestorm of pressure from Capitol Hill and the pro-Israel lobby organizations. It is not clear that the administration could muster strong arguments for a policy position calling for Israeli restraint or threatening diplomatic action against Israel in case of war.
So, we are left with our judgment that Israel is not likely to push for war -- with Iran or Iranian allies like Hizballah and Syria -- right now. But, even if we are right, the larger problem is not going away.
**Flynt Leverett directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, where he is also a Senior Research Fellow. Additionally, he teaches at Pennsylvania State University’s School of International Affairs. Hillary Mann Leverett is CEO of Strategic Energy and Global Analysis (STRATEGA), a political risk consultancy. In September 2010, she will also take up an appointment as Senior Lecturer and Senior Research Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. This article was first published in The Race for Iran under a Creative Commons license. See, also, Nicholas Noe, "LA Times: Preparing the Ground for War" (The Mideastwire Blog, 3 August 2010); Camille Alexandre Otrakji, "Will Rising Tensions in the Middle East Lead to Another Catastrophic War?" (Syria Comment, 3 August 2010); As'ad AbuKhalil, "The Mood in Lebanon" (Angry Arab News Service, 4 August 2010).

Aoun on Karam's Arrest: Three of Christ's 12 Disciples Betrayed Him
آNaharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun stated Thursday that failure is only human and "whoever does not expect it is naïve."
He made his statements during an FPM closed-door meeting held following FPM senior official Fayez Karam's arrest on charges of spying for Israel, adding: "What shocks us is not the discovery, but the individual -- should he be convicted.""This case will not affect our trust in others, otherwise we will fall in doubt," said Aoun. According to the FPM website, in 1988, Aoun told a gathering of his officers "Three of Christ's 12 disciples betrayed him … and many will fall in the coming phase."
The MP said on Thursday that collaboration with Israel should be expected from members of every party. The meeting also tackled granting Palestinian refugees in Lebanon their rights and devising a defense strategy for Lebanon. "We thwarted an Israeli war and its attempts at creating strife in Lebanon through the Lebanese' diligence and our deterrent power," he said.
Beirut, 05 Aug 10, 17:53

UNIFIL Says Avoiding New Clashes Depends on Parties Commitment to 1701
Naharnet/The beefed-up United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) succeeded in neutralizing the detonation fuse in South Lebanon during the last two days, UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti said Thursday. At a press conference he held at UNIFIL's headquarters in the southern city of Naqoura, Tenenti noted that the U.N. force's prompt deployment in the area of Tuesday's border clashes between the Israeli and Lebanese troops played a major role in containing the situations and preventing further escalation towards the worse. He added that UNIFIL's investigations into the incident are still underway and that UNIFIL will share the probe's findings with both parties. Tenenti noted that avoiding the recurrence of Tuesday's clashes depends on the parties' commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, hoping Adeisseh's incidents would not be repeated in any other area. On the other hand, he expressed UNIFIL's regret for the loss of human life and the injuries. Beirut, 05 Aug 10, 21:03

Insecurity Council
Ami Horowitz
Posted: August 5, 2010 01
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ami-horowitz/insecurity-council_b_671806.html
This week, under the watchful eye of UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in Southern Lebanon, there was a fatal border skirmish between the Lebanese Army and the Israeli Defense Forces. This tussle reminds us of one of the great absurdities of the United Nations: Hezbollah, widely known as the most lethal terrorist group operating today, responsible for the killing of hundreds of American marines and embassy employees, and the slaughter of 85 civilians in a Jewish community center in Argentina, has a de facto seat on the Security Council.
During the course of filming U.N. Me, my feature documentary about the failure of the United Nations to live up to its founding principles, I have come across countless examples of the organization's shocking indifference to, and inability to act against, evil. This one is near the top.
The mechanism which has allowed this super-terrorist organization a seat at the international table was the election of Lebanon to the Security Council, a country which is militarily and politically dominated by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has grown from a mini-state within Lebanon into the most powerful force in the country. The degradation of the Lebanese army has, not coincidentally, overlapped with the exponential growth of the military might of Hezbollah. In fact, much of the Lebanese army has been co-opted by Hezbollah. As Ousama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies put it, "Hezbollah has already captured the state. That is a fact on the ground."
I experienced Hezbollah's influence first hand when I called the Lebanese government for permission to film in southern Lebanon. The gentleman with whom I spoke immediately gave me the mobile number for the local Hezbollah commander to ensure that I cleared any activities with him first. This is not the first time that the U.N. has installed a terror state in the Security Council. Syria was elected to the prestigious and critical body less than one month after 9/11 and elevated, to the presidency of the Security Council shortly thereafter.
The Security Council is currently dealing with a whole host of critical issues that directly concern Lebanon. Of course all of their deliberations and decisions will be compromised the moment the Lebanese representative passes it on to his Hezbollah handlers.
This absurd position of Hezbollah within the United Nations brings into focus the United Nations' abysmal failure in accomplishing any of its stated goals within Lebanon. Since 1978, the United Nations has been attempting to address the power vacuum in Lebanon and the various rogue entities that have been filling it over the ensuing years. The result has been painfully consistent failure ever since.
The United Nations has issued dozens of resolutions over the years with the charming belief that the repetition of farcical language will somehow effect change. Most recently security council resolution 1701, which prohibits the supple of weaponry to Hezbollah (Hezbollah has more weapons now then it did before that resolution). On the rare occasion that they use more than language, their attempts seem as toothless and pointless as their words. UNIFIL, the U.N.'s peacekeeping force in Southern Lebanon, has been loitering in the area for 31 years. It has not only been embarrassingly impotent, but it has also actually been an obstacle to peace. The mission reinforces the delusion that steps are being taken to disarm and deter Hezbollah, when in fact the opposite is taking place. The peacekeeper presence discourages Lebanon from rebuilding and reinserting its forces in the south, handcuffs Israel when it needs to respond to attacks from its northern border and the U.N. force has, on numerous occasions, literally watched Hezbollah rearm and become more powerful.
To be clear there is an epic and mortal power struggle taking place within Lebanon. On one side are the factions that support Hezbollah's domination, a side which is financed and directed by Iran and Syria. They are arrayed against those who understand that the road that Hezbollah is paving will once again lead to the eventual destruction of their country, once the pearl of the Middle East. The Cedar Revolution that rose after the assassination of Rafik Hariri netted real and tangible gains, starting with the expulsion of Syria, Hezbollah's partner, from the country. The Lebanese rightly looked to the United Nations for help in cementing their gains. They have been betrayed by the U.N. and they have been paying the price of that betrayal and failure ever since.
For a great overview of the film, check out the article about our World Premiere at IDFA 2009 on indiewire.

“Fayez Karam arrest: Hezbollah wariness and FPM shock and loss of trust”, according to Joseph Bahout
BEIRUT, By Nayla Chahla | iloubnan.info - August 05, 2010
http://www.iloubnan.info/Politics/actualite/id/49349/titre/“Fayez-Karam-arrest:-Hezbollah-wariness-and-FPM-shock-and-loss-of-trust”,-according-to-Joseph-Bahout
-according-to-Joseph-Bahout
Hardly had the arrest of Free Patriotic Movement and retired general Fayez Karam been unveiled, a “comprehensive shock” could be seen all over Lebanon. No comments; neither supportive nor condemning. FPM keeps silence, so does Hezbollah. Even political rivals refrain from commenting the news. Although he is not the first Israeli spy to be identified, mainly a military one, however, in his capacity of a retired LAF general and namely a FPM official, Fayez Karam deals a severe, not to say, a shocking, blow to the FPM, the military institution and to Lebanon. Focus on the arrest with political scientist Mr. Joseph Bahout.
iloubnan.info: From a military point of view, how do you perceive such an arrest?
Joseph Bahout: In fact, Fayez Karam is neither the first nor the last military officer to be arrested and involved in Israel espionage. Many officers have been arrested so far since Lebanon launched the crackdown of Israeli spying cells active in Lebanon. However, with regard to his double position as a military man and as a FPM official, Fayez Karam’s spying involvement is seen as much a critical matter as a national shock. As a matter of fact, from a military point of view, this arrest shows the strong and critical penetration of Israeli Intelligence in the Lebanese state institutions. Thus, we cannot rule out any “tomorrow” discovery of Israeli penetration inside the Lebanese Public Administration. The series of arrests confirms the silent war or the so-called “shadow war” between Lebanon and Israel. Although militarily over, politically and technically the war is still ongoing. Looking back at Karam’s spying career, the fact that he was recruited in the early 1990s, reveals two key point to consider: the first one is the Israeli danger that Hezbollah is still warning against; then, a second point relevant to the frightening Israeli professionalism in operating secretly and accessing Lebanese telecommunications, political and military institutions. Therefore, it is now down to the Lebanese State to set up and implement a powerful strategy in order to face and struggle against the Israeli practices and hostilities.
As a retired general, Fayez Karam’s arrest deals a blow to the Lebanese military institution. Do you think it could weaken the Lebanese Army?
Although he is a well-known public figure, I don’t thonk that Fayez Karam’s case will really harm or weaken the Lebanese military institution. The reason is that his spying career goes back to the early 1980s, which, historically and politically, marks a beginning of ties between some Lebanese parties and Israel. This is to say that the Lebanese Army today is totally different from the Lebanese Army in the eighties. So, Karam’s case is a consequence of that past period. However, it is still a very bad thing because it triggers moral after-effects on the Lebanese soldiers and the world military institutions in general, but I don’t think it will really harm the reputation of our today’s military institution. To the contrary, it should be a crucial evidence and motive to go further and deeper in unmaking the rest of spies. Another key point in this regard: such discovery reveals the existence, in Lebanon, of a compost of espionage for Israel, either sectarian or political…. This is undeniable as some local parties used to connect with Israel before.
Now, which impact, do you think such an arrest, could have on FPM-Hezbollah relations?
To my mind, this arrest will cause a deep shock and even after-effects within the Free Patriotic Movement essentially. Fayez Karam has played a key role during the FPM leader Michel Aoun’s military career. He was his number two. He had his full trust. He was the closest to Aoun. Thus, such an arrest would certainly be shocking for Aoun himself more than his party. Of course, it will undoubtedly spread trouble and weaken trust inside the FPM and among its supporters. Thus, Michel Aoun will probably turn more suspicious and wary in every step he takes and towards his party members and allies. As for Hezbollah, I don’t really think its ties with the FPM will be really at stake. The Shiite party, to my opinion, will not risk letting go a key Christian ally like FPM, but will certainly be more cautious and wary of any potential fact. It will certainly focus on advising Aoun to watch out for all those around him. In fact, Hezbollah is aware that even within the Shiite community or its ranks, any spy could be unmasked any time. It already happened before. The Shiite group is also aware that by the time Karam’s was recruited by Israel, Aoun wasn’t really far from Israel’s spy recruitment process and even had not really that hostile attitude towards the Jewish State as much as now, because of the political situation that was prevailing in the 1980s.
Examiner.com

Mideast Girds for an Epic Battle of Moderates Versus Extremes
By Uri Goldflam
http://www.cicweb.ca/scene/2010/08/mideast-girds-for-an-epic-battle-of-moderates-versus-extremes-new/
August 5, 2010 – 2:57 pm by Uri Goldflam
I'm about to confuse you.
A short summary of the past few days in the neighbourhood:
•Unprovoked, the Lebanese army shoots and kills an Israeli soldier.
•Six rockets are fired from Sinai, Egypt into Israel and Jordan. A Jordanian civilian is killed.
•Three rockets and two mortars are fired from Gaza into Ashkelon and Sderot, in Israel.
•U.S. President Barack Obama announces an American pullout from Iraq by August 31.
•Unrest in Egypt, as the health of President Hosni Mubarak is in question.
•Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets Jordan's King Abdullah.
•Arab League agrees to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas beginning direct negotiations with Israel.
•Abbas scrambles to find excuses against direct talks.
•Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah visits Syria, then flies to Lebanon with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
•Al Qaeda attacks and kills five police officers in Baghdad.
•In Iran, an assassination attempt against President Mahmoud Ahmedinijad.
•U.S. Congress is asked to approve a $30 billion arms deal to…Saudi Arabia.
What's going on?
I'll get back to that question later.
I have taken dozens of groups to look over at the Lebanese border from kibbutz Misgav Am, which has been the the target of many terror attacks, and most recently of rocket attacks from Lebanon. Across the valley is the Lebanese village of Addaiseh. From a lookout at the edge of the kibbutz it is easy to spot the Hezbollah flags, bunkers and personnel, even a big poster featuring the Iranian Ayatollah alongside Ahmedinijad. It is also clear that the village is not really a village at all, but an elaborate system of bunkers and shooting platforms designed to look like houses. There are no villagers, tractors, or agricultural activities. No fires burning, kids going to school or trucks unloading goods at a local store.
On August 3, the quiet on this front was disturbed by an organized attack on Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) soldiers.
The soldiers were clearing trees and bushes that were obscuring the technical fence. While the Israelis crossed the fence, they but stayed well south of the Lebanese border (Blue line) inside Israel. And prior to the operation, the IDF updated UNIFIL (United Nations) forces and the Lebanese army. This is why the Lebanese knew in advance to invite the media.
From one of those roof top platforms the Lebanese opened accurate sniper fire on the Israelis, killing 45-year-old Dov Harari, a reservist battalion commander. It was supposed to be his last reserve tour of duty. In the Israeli response three Lebanese soldiers and a reporter were killed.
As the preparations for the attack took place, the UNIFIL forces stood waiving blue UN flags. Pictures show they were literally centimetres away from Lebanese army soldiers carrying RPGs, machine guns and other weapons. They saw and witnessed the attack unfolding within arms length.
And what did UNFIL do?
They stood, shouted and waived flags.
A UNIFIL peacekeeper, right, waves as a Lebanese soldier, center, carries an RPG in front of Israeli troops patrolling the border fence in the southern border village of Adaisseh, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2010. (AP Photo/Lutfallah Daher)
Addaiseh is a Hezbollah stronghold. Could the press have been invited without Hezbollah's approval? No. The Lebanese battalion involved in this incident is Shiite. Hezbollah is the Shiite arm of the Iranian Shiite regime. Is there a connection? Maybe.
Now let's zoom out.
Lebanon is a pressure pot about to burst. An international tribunal will soon announce that Hezbollah is responsible for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the anti-Syrian former Prime Minister of Lebanon.
Hariri was killed in 2005, when an explosive device equivalent to 1,000 kg of TNT was detonated as his motorcade drove by. Hezbollah has always denied responsibility, instead blaming Israel. Lebanon's current Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of the slain PM, met recently with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and accepted his explanation. But the accusation, backed by hard evidence, makes Nasrallah a liar. Hariri will lose face. In Lebanon, it means the brink of (another) civil war.
In an unprecedented move, the Saudi king flew met the Syrian president. In another unprecedented move, both leaders flew to Lebanon to meet the Lebanese PM. They were trying to create a pressure release valve.
Meanwhile, Nasrallah announced that if the international tribunal finds someone in Hezbollah to be responsible for the assassination they "will know what to do." And by that, it looks like he meant kill a few Israelis and divert the attention.
However, Hezbollah's sole purpose is to attack Israel when Iran sees fit. Since Iran is not yet ready to engage, it must use another proxy. Enter the Shiite battalion of the Lebanese army.
Do things start to make sense now?
Back to our opening list. What's going on?
An epic battle between moderation and extremism is raging in the Middle East. Arab regimes are fearful that a nuclear Iran will cause unrest among their population. Radical Islamists are doubling their efforts in anticipation of the American withdrawal. You can also expect an increase in terror attacks as the end of August approaches and the direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians get closer to resuming. The West can no longer afford to act like the UN, waiving flags, sitting idly by while the bad guys shoot their guns. Trying to accommodate or compromise with these extreme forces will embolden them. To support peace one must take a tough stand against radicalism.
The great Irish statesman Edmond Burke said: When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle. In other words, for evil to prevail, good people must remain silent. Don't be silent.

Israel 'fabricated charges' against three suspected spies for Syria
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem sent UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon letter saying charges against three residents of northern Israeli villages are baseless.
By Jack Khoury and Haaretz Service
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on Thursday sent United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon a letter defending three Israelis charged one day earlier with spying for Syria, the country's Sana news agency reported.  Muallem said that the charges against the three residents of northern Israeli villages are baseless and said Israel fabricated them in order to intimidate the men. The Syrian minister urged Ban to pressure Israel to stop what he calls its repeated violations of UN resolutions and violations of international humanitarian law.
Muallem also demanded that Israel release all Syrian detainees in Israeli jails and withdraw from the Golan Heights. On Thursday, three residents of villages in northern Israel were indicted by a Nazareth court on charges they allegedly spied for and passed information to agents in Syria, authorities revealed after a gag order was lifted in the case. The three are residents of the Golan Heights and Baka al-Gharbiyeh. Two of those indicted are residents of the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, Majd Sha'ar, 58, and his son, Fida, 27. Also indicted was Mahmoud Masarwah, 62, of Baka al-Gharbiyeh. They are charged with having had contact with a Syrian intelligence officer for years, specifically a former resident of Majdal Shams named Madhat Salah. The indictment states that Salah, formerly a security prisoner in Israel, and Majd Sha'ar's wife have known each other for decades. The three are also accused of hatching an elaborate plan to kidnap someone they believed to be a Syrian defector living in Israel, suggesting that Syrian intelligence is still hunting a pilot who defected to Israel in 1989.

Karam’s collaboration with Israel was limited to supplying political information, source says
August 6, 2010 /Naharnet/Ad-Diyar newspaper quoted on Friday a security source as saying that retired Brigadier General Fayez Karam—the Change and Reform bloc official arrested Tuesday on suspicion of collaborating with Israel—confessed to spying for Tel Aviv, but claimed to have only provided the Jewish state with only political information.
The daily also reported that Karam said he did not supply Israel with any security information, adding that Karam visited Israel only once, in 1992.
As-Safir newspaper reported on Friday that the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) has been investigating Karam’s crimes since 2007, but did not pinpoint the actions to the retired general until recently due to human error. According to the daily, Karam would contact Israel though his three European cellular phones, which could not be monitored because their signals directly connected to Tel Aviv through European relay stations. The ISF is analyzing the data it confiscated from his house after raiding it to understand the nature of the information he supplied to the Israeli Mossad intelligence service, the daily added.
-NOW Lebanon

Too long on the front line
August 6, 2010
Now Lebanon/Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps march during a military parade. The Iranian Supreme Leader’s representative to the IRGC named Lebanon as part of the front line in his country’s war against its enemies. (AFP)
It’s official. Lebanon, along with Palestine and Iraq, is part of Iran’s front line in the war against all arrogant movements and enemies of religion and religiosity that have united to confront Iran’s Islamic establishment. So said Ali Saidi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, to the FARS news agency on Thursday.
His words come at a time when the region’s power struggle centers on Lebanon. Last week’s mini-summit involving the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon – and later Qatar – sought to defuse tensions created by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. It was a clear signal to the Hezbollah leadership that any moves to destabilize the country would not be tolerated. Nasrallah responded in the only way he knows how: with violence, threats and bluster.
Only three days after the unprecedented shuttle diplomacy, there was a deadly border incident between the Lebanese army and Israeli Defense Forces. The Hezbollah leader quickly followed this with another tub-thumping speech to the party faithful. And then we had Saidi’s statement. Coincidence? There are none in the Middle East.
What has to happen for us to finally accept that Hezbollah is an extension of Iran’s regional military might? The genius of the alliance has been, at a popular level, to sell Hezbollah as a national Shia movement, a dignity-restoring entity that provides for the previously unprovided-for and defends lands that were previously undefended.
Yet on a regional level, its agenda is much more sinister, operating as it does as an extra front in Iran’s ongoing conflict with Israel. This has consistently undermined Lebanon’s sovereignty, the role of its armed forces and Lebanon’s standing in the international community. We are still, despite favorable mentions in the world’s travel press, a state that is out of step with international norms, and Hezbollah, through its destabilizing activities, must shoulder some of the blame for this.
Saidi’s words are dangerous because they insult Lebanese self determination and do not reflect the aspirations of the majority of the Lebanese people who voted in the 2009 elections to deny Hezbollah a say in the running of the country, and by extension the party’s right to maintain an arsenal that could plunge the region into war.
Surely now, and especially in light of Tuesdays border incident in which Hezbollah surely had a hand, we must see the Party of God for what it really is and recognize the very real danger in which its alliance with Iran puts Lebanon.
An Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities will oblige Hezbollah to open up a front on Israel’s northern border, while further UN sanctions will surely force Iran to leverage its allies in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.
This is not about Israel, the bogeyman on whose shoulders we tend to heap all the blame for the woes of the region. The Lebanese must no longer accept in the name of national resistance a party whose ideology is predicted on conflict and whose ongoing standoff with the Zionist state cannot be justified at the expense of Lebanese sovereignty. Under such tensions, Lebanon can never evolve as a free, democratic and prosperous nation. We must all reject Iranian influence in Lebanon. We can do so by demanding that the LAF be a stabilizing entity and the only defender of Lebanese interests. We must fight for the full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates – along with an end to Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and territorial waters, as well as its ongoing occupation of Lebanese territories as documented by the United Nations – the cessation of Syrian and Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah. We have been on the front line for too long.

The Fayez Karam saga
Michael Young, August 5, 2010
Of course it’s entirely possible that Fayez Karam, the Aounist official arrested earlier this week, was an Israeli spy, as security officials have insisted. In which case we must commend the officials and echo Pogo, by crying out, “We have found the enemy, and he is us!”
Karam is said to have admitted to the charge. However, in these cases it’s always best to be cautious, at least until the accused himself is heard. But there happens to be another version of this puzzling arrest now circulating in Beirut, and it has to do with Syria’s efforts to reassert its dominion over Lebanon, including over Hezbollah.
It didn’t take very much to realize that the Lebanese-Saudi-Syrian summit last week aroused little enthusiasm from Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. In part, to borrow from Walid Jumblatt, that was because Iran was not present; or, more bluntly, because Iran was and is the prime target of the Saudi endeavor to bring Syria back to Lebanon. For King Abdullah, better to hand Lebanon to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad than to allow Hezbollah, and through it Tehran, to rule over the country as it has for four years.
Enter Michel Aoun. The general aligned himself with Hezbollah only months after returning home in 2005. While he did turn a new page with Syria, in domestic politics Aoun remained, above all, a staunch partner of Hezbollah, initially hoping that the party would deliver the presidency to him. Yet as Syria seeks to impose itself on Hezbollah – to remind Nasrallah that Damascus is again the main player in Lebanon, not Iran – Assad may be seeking to draw Hezbollah’s allies away from the party, to better isolate it. Karam’s arrest, this version continues, is just a way of compelling Aoun to choose Syria over Iran.
In recent days Hezbollah has done little to show that it takes seriously the joint statement released by King Abdullah, Assad and Lebanese President Michel Sleiman. First, Nasrallah met with the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, a noted Syrian ally, to remind him that he had better not take his distance from Hezbollah. Then, where the joint statement was all about calming the game in Lebanon, the Aadaiseh incident and Nasrallah’s speech displayed little consideration for that injunction. And if anyone had doubts, Nasrallah dispelled them by remarking that Lebanon awaited the visit of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the same spirit as it did those of the Arab leaders. In other words, Hezbollah’s reference point remained Tehran.
If this reading of the Karam arrest is correct – that it is a Syrian gambit to draw Michel Aoun away from Hezbollah and more squarely into the Syrian orbit – then what can we expect in the near future? It is widely suspected that Hezbollah has long helped enhance Aoun’s power of patronage. Assuming the information is true, the general would have to begin by scrambling to find alternative funders.
Then we have to ask how Aoun’s fealty would express itself in more practical ways. In order to bolster their comeback, the Syrians need to ensure that they can bring their own people into key administrative posts, particularly in the security and intelligence agencies, above all the General Security directorate and military intelligence. Some weeks ago Damascus, ostensibly at Aoun’s behest, because the general was dissatisfied with his share of posts, blocked a sequence of new appointments. How ironic if Assad now allows these to go through, but presses Aoun to approve pro-Syrian candidates.
And by the way, don’t expect the general to soon threaten to withdraw his ministers from the government if Hezbollah demands this in order to pressure Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri into breaking Lebanese ties with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Syria doesn’t want the tribunal any more than Hezbollah does, but Assad evidently prefers to achieve this more quietly, whether through the Saudis or through his own interactions with the prime minister, who, you have to suspect, views his decision as leverage to be used against Hezbollah.
In the coming days we may get a better sense of what is going on with Fayez Karam, and whether the political interpretations of his detention are correct. However, Lebanon is, plainly, moving through a period of major tectonic shifts where nothing is what it seems. Only one thing is certain: A sovereign Lebanon is as distant as ever.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut. His book, The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster), was recently published.

Brushfire or Spark? Incident on the Israel-Lebanon Border
Policy Watch/
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3233
By David Schenker, Andrew J. Tabler, and Jeffrey White
August 4, 2010
Yesterday, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers opened fire on an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) unit removing a tree near the border security fence. In the resulting fighting, a senior IDF officer, two Lebanese soldiers, and a Lebanese journalist were killed, making the clash the most intense military engagement in the north since the 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah.
The spike in border tension coincides with increased concerns about Lebanon's potential return to sectarian violence. Spurred by reports that the tribunal investigating the 2005 murder of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri will soon indict Hizballah officials, these concerns prompted an unprecedented joint visit to Beirut last week by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and Syrian president Bashar al-Asad. Saad Hariri -- Rafiq's son and current prime minister -- praised the visit for bringing "considerable stability to the country."
Despite this optimistic pronouncement, with the border heating up and murder indictments pending, tensions remain high. Also in the background is Iran -- Hizballah's main supporter, Syria's ally, and Saudi Arabia's regional rival.
Dueling Narratives
Contradictory accounts have emerged about the border skirmish. Israel said that it informed the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) of its intention to remove the tree. Located beyond Israel's security fence adjacent to the village of Misgav Am, the tree was nevertheless on the Israeli side of the internationally recognized "blue line," the border between Israel and Lebanon. When Israel began clearing the tree several hours after submitting the request, Lebanese forces called on the Israeli forces to withdraw. When they refused, Lebanese snipers opened fire, killing battalion commander Lt. Col. Dov Harari, who was standing 200 yards inside Israeli territory. Israel responded with light arms fire followed by a helicopter attack on the battalion command center at al-Taybeh, killing two Lebanese soldiers and a journalist from the pro-Hizballah al-Akhbar newspaper.
Lebanon claims that it asked Israel to delay the removal process for twenty-four hours. According to Beirut, when Israeli personnel began removing the tree three hours later, Lebanese forces shouted for them to stop and fired warning shots, to which Israeli forces responded with light arms fire and artillery.
The incident is currently under investigation by UNIFIL and the IDF. So far, the former inquiry has confirmed that Israel precoordinated the tree removal with UNIFIL personnel, who passed the information on to the LAF. UNIFIL has also confirmed that the incident took place inside the blue line, on Israeli territory. Meanwhile, the United States has urged both sides to exercise "maximum restraint to avoid an escalation and maintain the ceasefire that is now in place."
Although the incident is the most significant clash between Israel and Lebanon since the 2006 war, it is not without precedent. In 2007, the LAF opened fire on an IDF bulldozer that had crossed the security fence to remove debris south of the blue line. The operation had been precoordinated with UNIFIL but rejected by the LAF, which fired warning shots at the bulldozer; Israel responded with a single tank round. Previously, an Israeli soldier was shot dead on the same stretch of road in 2003, reportedly by a Hizballah sniper.
The incident unfolded amid spiraling tensions and a war of words between Israel, Hizballah, and Damascus regarding Syria's reported transfers of Scud and M600 long-range missiles to Hizballah. Incidents in Lebanon related to the Hariri tribunal and Hizballah's growing influence have only exacerbated these tensions.
Tribunal Could Prompt Bloodshed
In the aftermath of the February 2005 Hariri assassination, the UN established an International Independent Investigation Commission (IIIC), which quickly implicated Syria in the killing. More recently, however, the commission and its prosecutorial arm, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), have focused on Hizballah's alleged role. Several media reports since 2009 have confirmed the organization's involvement, with some sources even implicating senior Hizballah official Mustafa Badreddine, brother-in-law of former top commander Imad Mughniyah. Recent reports assert that between two and six Hizballah members will be indicted this year.
The prospect that the STL will accuse Shiite Muslims of assassinating the leader of Lebanon's Sunni community has fueled concerns of a return to sectarian violence. Indeed, given the indictment forecasts, it is not difficult to imagine Sunni retaliation against Shiite targets similar to the 2006 Samarra mosque bombing in Iraq, which sparked a cycle of bloodshed. Apparently, the prospect of such fighting -- in which Hizballah-led Shiites would have the upper hand against Saudi Arabia's Sunni allies in Lebanon -- prompted King Abdullah's intervention.
Although Asad accompanied Abdullah, Syria's calculation behind the visit was no doubt different. Damascus sees increased tension next door as an opportunity to reestablish itself as the guardian of stability in Lebanon -- a situation that many in the region, if not in Washington, appear resigned to accepting. Asad described the visit as "excellent" and, in a speech a few days later at Syria's Army Day celebrations, stated that "the specter of real peace in the region is disappearing, and the possibility of war is increasing."
Another potential outside actor that should be mentioned is Qatar, which so often seems to play deliberate diplomatic games against Saudi Arabia. Last weekend, for example, Qatari leader Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani visited southern Lebanon.
Hizballah Preemptive Strike?
On July 22, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah held a press conference in response to rumors of pending indictments against members of the group. According to him, a "great scheme" was "targeting the resistance, Lebanon, and the region" via the STL. Not only was the five-year investigation politically biased, he claimed, but it "brought along false witnesses" and never even considered the possibility that the murder was carried out by Israel, which had "the motive, the capabilities, the control, and the interest" to kill Hariri.
Alleged Israeli involvement in the assassination has been a focus of Nasrallah's remarks in recent months, as he has sought to undermine the STL and deflect pressure on Hizballah. During a July 16 speech, for example, he described the STL as an "Israeli project" targeting the resistance and creating internal divisions in Lebanon by fabricating a Hizballah connection to the murder.
According to STL sources, highly advanced telecommunications analysis will form the basis of future indictments. Unsurprisingly, Nasrallah has begun to focus on the credibility of this data, which he says has been manipulated by Israeli spies in the Lebanese telecommunications system. Over the past year, more than seventy alleged Israeli spies have been arrested in Lebanon, including five senior officers in Lebanese telecom firms, most recently a technician at Alfa, a cell phone provider.
Nasrallah's accusations are intended to raise doubts about some of the STL's most compelling technical evidence. Although Hizballah claims may not dissuade the tribunal from proceeding with indictments, they could conceivably undermine domestic support for the process.
Outlook
At least for the short term, peace appears to have returned to the area. The incident is considered over, and the IDF is returning to normal border operations. But any sense of "business as usual" will be absent; in the view of the Israeli military, the LAF (or at least its local units) have demonstrated that they are unpredictable.
Israel will be prepared to respond with substantial force in the event of further incidents. In completing the brush clearing operation today, the IDF deployed strong armored and infantry forces to cover the action, serving as a deterrent to any further LAF action and a signal of what will happen if there is another incident.
A potential complication for the United States is that the LAF is supplied with American equipment. Future supplies could be jeopardized if, for example, the LAF is judged to be working closely with Hizballah.
In any case, history shows that events happen fast on the border. As in 2006, a routine activity escalated into a serious clash, although in this case escalation was controlled. Yet the situation could have evolved very differently if Hizballah had become directly involved, the IDF had taken more casualties, or the LAF had not backed down.
This event must also be placed in the context of increasing political tensions within Lebanon and the growing potential for a Hizballah-Israel conflict. Although it has been relatively quiet for four years, the border is becoming an increasingly dangerous place.
**David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow at the Institute. Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at the Institute.

Seeking to Undermine the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is Impossible
Wed, 04 August 2010
Randa Takieddine/Al Hayat
The commotion underway in Lebanon over the Special Tribunal for the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri and his comrades is pointless, except that it creates a climate of tension in the country, because it will not do away with the work of international magistrate Daniel Bellemare, or the Special Tribunal for Lebanon itself. If the objective of this commotion is to engage in scaremongering about civil strife, and paralyze the country even more than it currently is, then this itself is a politicization of the STL’s results, which has yet to issue an indictment whose contents remain unknown.
The politicization is a pre-emptive move against the indictment, and a warning of civil strife is meant to pressure the Lebanese government into requesting that the STL be dissolved. What does politicizing the STL mean? Was the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and his comrades a theft, or a purely ordinary misdemeanor? The crime was political, and Hariri’s assassination took place for purely political reasons, just as leaders and officials in Lebanon were assassinated in the past, when they strayed beyond the borders drawn for them by regional powers.
Certainly, the indictment that will be issued by Bellemare will be linked to politics. This is because those who carried out the assassination did so for clearly political objectives, and the indictment can only assign a political meaning to the action of the criminals. Saying that the STL should not be politicized is meaningless, unless new ideas are being put forward, namely that the assassination of Hariri and his comrades took place for non-political reasons.
Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon are now waging an early campaign against the indictment, which has yet to be issued. The commotion surrounding the politicization of the STL reminds us of Dostoyevksy’s novel Crime and Punishment, as the criminal hero, Raskolnikov, considers that he is an exceptional human being, and that he can carry out a despicable criminal act for a reason that is good for him. However, in the end he cannot escape the pain and anguish of carrying out his crime.
As the campaign against the STL, which cannot be eliminated, continues, we should ask about the reason for spreading the fear and tension, while the identity of the killer is known only to the person who killed Hariri.
If this commotion was meant to serve the interest of the Iranian ally, which is trying to hit back at United Nations Security Council Resolutions through Lebanon, beginning with UNSCR 1559, which talked about Hezbollah’s weapons, followed by 1691, which established the STL, to arrive at 1929, with its painful international sanctions on Iran, then these resolutions will not be cancelled.
But if the commotion is meant to pressure the Lebanese government to request a cancellation of the STL, this is also not possible, because the STL has been funded for this year, and Bellemare is aware that he must hurry, since he has sufficient funding to complete his work. This is in order for him to avoid the problem of a slowing-down of funding.
The threat of civil strife to block or cancel the STL is merely a threat, since the STL cannot be canceled, now that it has been established. Politicizing the tribunal is meaningless, since the crime is political, in any case. If the indictment accuses Lebanese, Syrians or Israelis, this in itself is politicization, since the reason for the crime is political. Let us stop hiding behind words and accusations whose objective is politicization, tension and domination by force. Let us remember the martyrs who have fallen, and whose blood has been shed like others before them. Why were Samir Kassir, Gebran Tueni, Pierre Gemayel, Walid Eido, Basil Fleihan and Francois Hajj killed? Why were Kamal Jumblatt, Bashir Gemayel, Rene Mouawad and George Hawi killed? Why was Marwan Hamade almost killed? All of this blood has been shed in vain, by a decision by the killer, whose arrest is not something that certain people want – the killer is not to be located, or revealed, because the law of murder and assassination in Lebanon is supposed to be stronger than international law. It is time for the truth to come out, or else the high-profile visits to Lebanon will create unrealistic scenarios of canceling the STL. The international tribunal cannot be killed.
http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/169072

The Lebanon border and Hezbollah’s war footing
By Walid Phares
http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/06/the-lebanon-border-and-hezbollahs-war-footing/
08/06/2010
Lebanon’s southern border with Israel came very close to a military conflagration Tuesday, amidst a showdown between the international community and Iran’s regime, which continues to defiantly develop nuclear weapons. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, has demonstrated to the West that it can trigger a wider conflict on behalf of its patron.
The exchange of fire between Israeli forces and units from the Lebanese Army ended with the killing of three Lebanese soldiers, two of them identified as Sgts Abdullah Tufaili and Robert Ashi as well the death of a correspondent for pro-Syrian daily al Akhbar, Assaf Abu Rahhal. Hezbollah’s television station, al-Manar, reported that one of its correspondents Ali Shuaib was wounded. For its part, Israel said one battalion commander Lt Col. Dov Harari was killed and a platoon commander Captain Ezra Lakia was critically wounded.
The incident started near the village of Adaisse, along the demarcation line. What is clear is that Lebanese forces fired first. Lebanon’s military spokespersons claimed an Israeli patrol crossed the border, prompting the Lebanese army to push the patrol back. Israel says its soldiers didn’t cross the international border; they were trimming a tree overlooking the blue line. The United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has since confirmed that the tree was located on Israel’s side of the border.
UNIFIL claims that it secures the Israeli-Lebanese border under the Security Council Resolution 1701, which was issued after the Israeli-Hezbollah war of 2006. But the blue helmets do next to nothing. Hezbollah and other armed jihadist groups roam the valleys at night and actively smuggling weapons and ammunition to the area in preparation for the next conflict with Israel.
Yesterday’s clash could have escalated if Israel had not shown great restraint. The Israelis likely knew that the attack it endured was designed to drag its military into an unplanned response against Lebanon, amidst heightened tension Iran and the United States. Indeed, Israel should be acknowledged as having prevented a wider conflagration.
Hezbollah, surprisingly, also demonstrated some restraint yesterday. The Iranian proxy didn’t rush to shell the northern Israel after the clash. However, Hezbollah’s restraint does not reflect a desire for peace. This smaller attack was choreographed. It was likely structured by Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah’s war room. This smaller skirmish is likely a prelude to the big one. Indeed, it sets a predicate for future confrontations.
Nasrallah seemed to confirm this in a speech he delivered in Beirut just few hours after the clashes. At an event commemorating the fifth anniversary of the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel War, thousands of partisans were on site, along with dozens of politicians and some two hundred foreign jihadists. Nasrallah spent one third of a long speech discussing the morning’s incident. Indeed, it appeared that he had prepared the text of his speech well before the morning’s events. Nasrallah explained that he had adopted a new strategy to “encourage the Lebanese Army to fight Israel.”
Additionally, it must not be overlooked that television crews from al-Manar and al-Akhbar were on the scene when the fighting broke out? How could they have known to be there without advanced coordination?
Interestingly, Nasrallah admitted in his speech that Hezbollah was in full breach to UNSCR 1701, which forbids the presence of militias in southern Lebanon. Nasrallah boasted about “his commanders rushing to help” the Lebanese army units in the area. Analysts have also pointed to the fact that the Lebanese army has been infiltrated by Hezbollah, so even if the terrorist group does not have an official presence in these areas, their influence in palpable.
In the final analysis, Nasrallah has signaled to international community that yesterday’s exchange of fire was just the beginning. Indeed, he can single-handedly trigger a war between Israel and Lebanon. This will become increasingly important as tensions continue to simmer between Iran and the West.
**Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a Fox News contributor.