Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for August 16/12
Israel Ready for 30-Day War after Iran Strike
Neither US nor Israel can destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, only cause delay
Khamenei: Zionist regime will disappear from map
Op-ed: The Zionist case against attacking Iran
Pentagon: Iran building, training militia in Syria
Iran says US quake aid was not in 'good faith'
Blogger: Israeli attack in Iran will include hits
Iranian general: Israel must be destroyed
US punched Bibi, Barak in the face 
Egypt's president has powers that rival Mubarak's
German Islamic extremists head to Egypt
In violation of peace accord, Egypt deploying troops in Sinai without Israel's prior approval
Russia Warns West against 'Sabotage' of Syria Deal
Syrian warplanes bomb rebel-held town
World Muslim body poised to suspend Syria
Damascus unrest: First-hand accounts
Syrians kidnapped across Lebanon amid reports of pilgrims’ deaths
Tension in Tripoli’s Bab al-Tabbaneh over reports of Syrian’s abduction
Fatfat: Hezbollah responsible for reported death of Shiite pilgrims in Syria
All Shiite pilgrims abducted in Syria safe, Adnan quotes Turkish FM as saying
Shiite pilgrim relative wants revenge against Future Movement
Conflicting reports over abduction of Saudi in Lebanon
Moqdad family threatens to target Lebanese parties
UN: Assad forces committed crimes against humanity
Suleiman Heads Security Meeting, Warns against 'Jeopardizing Security of Lebanese, Foreigners
Kidnappings veer Lebanon toward 'major chaos'
Gulf States warn citizens to leave Lebanon
Gulf Arab countries urge their nationals to leave Lebanon
Miqti at OIC Summit: Any Approach besides Disassociation Policy Would Have Harmed Lebanon
Lebanese Citizen Louay Mansour Goes Missing in Damascus
Meqdad Military Wing Kidnaps Turkish National, 20 FSA Members, Speaks of 'Bank of Targets

Neither US nor Israel can destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, only cause delay
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 15, 2012/US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said Tuesday night that he doesn’t believe Israel has made a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program. “As a sovereign country, they will ultimately make decisions based on what they think is in their national security interest,” he said, but he believed there was “still room to continue to negotiate” and “additional sanctions were beginning to have an additional impact.” The Secretary added that the Israeli prime minister agrees that military action should be the last resort.
At their joint press briefing in Washington, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said: “I am not privy to [Israel’s] planning. So what I’m telling you is based on what I know of their capabilities. And I may not know about all of their capabilities. But I think it’s fair… to say they could delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.”
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources say that neither official said anything new.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have reiterated firmly that the government had not reached a decision on whether to attack Iran. They have fully agreed it must be the last, not the first, option.
The fly in the ointment of US-Israeli interchanges on the subject is to be found in Gen. Dempsey’s rather than Panetta’s phrasing. For instance:
1. Dempsey: “I may not know all of their [Israel’s] capabilities.”
debkafile: The US army chief may know all there is to know about those capabilities but may not be fully apprised of how they are to be used, or when. That doesn’t mean he has no notion of Israel’s plans of operations, but the tight compartmentalization of top-level and IDF operational decision-making on the Iranian topic necessarily results in him not being privy, as he said himself, to every last detail of Israeli planning for action against a nuclear Iran.
This does not rule out Israel, at the critical moment, forewarning Panetta and Dempsey – and through them President Barack Obama – about the event to come.
2. Dempsey: “But I think it’s fair… to say they [Israel] could delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.”
debkafile: This premise is accurate: Neither Netanyahu and Barak or the IDF generals and security chiefs, past and present, who urge Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities (They are numerous although antagonists are featured on front pages.) presume that Iran’s nuclear program can be leveled to the ground at one stroke. Israel hopes to hold it up for a couple of years.
But this raises another question: Isn’t it too late for even the United States with its superior capabilities to aspire to total Iran’s nuclear capabilities?
Neither Panetta nor Dempsey discussed this US capacity but, according to our sources, while the Americans can certainly achieve more and longer-lasting destruction than Israel, they too can no longer destroy the program in its entirety. But they could delay it for four to five years, double the grace period Israel could achieve.
It must be stressed that the longer the world waits for diplomacy or sanctions to take effect and holds back from direction action, the faster the options for even slowing down Iran’s nuclearization shrink - not just for Israel but for the United States too.
The last moment for the United States and Israel, separately or together, to have destroyed Iran’s program went by without action four years ago in 2007. Today, the best they can achieve is to temporarily hold Iran back from building a bomb.

Iran's Khamenei: Israel will eventually disappear
Dudi Cohen/Ynetnews/08.16.12/
Ahead of 'al-Quds Day,' supreme leader tells Iran-Iraq war veterans 'Islamic land will certainly be returned to Palestinian nation'
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed hope on Wednesday that a Palestinian state will be established and that Israel will eventually "disappear from the landscape."
Speaking ahead of "al-Quds Day," which will be marked in Iran on Friday, Khamenei said "…the light of hope will shine on the Palestinian issue, and this Islamic land will certainly be returned to the Palestinian nation, and the superfluous and fake Zionist (regime) will disappear from the landscape."
The supreme leader accused the "Zionists and their supporters" of trying to cause the world to forget the Palestinian issue.
"With god's help, this year as well the Iranian nation will punch the faces of the enemies of Islam on al-Quds Day," Khamenei was quoted as saying during a meeting with veterans of the Iran-Iraq War. On al-Quds Day, millions of Shiites around the world rally in support of the Palestinians. "The Palestinian issue is not a tactical issue for us, but an (important) Islamic principle," the supreme leader added. "We want to save this Islamic state from the oppressive Zionist fingernails." Earlier on Wednesday, an Iranian defense official said Israel must be destroyed. Gholam Reza Jalali, who heads an Iranian military unit in charge of fighting sabotage, said that al-Quds Day "is an expression of the fact that there is no other way but to stand firm and resist until Israel is destroyed."

Yadlin: Iranian issue more complex than it seems
Ynetnews/ 1August 16/12
Former MI chief says discourse over Iran must emphasize that Israel is not the only one concerned; says diplomacy must be exhausted prior to strike, which at best can delay bomb by five years. Politicians, military officials and pundits has been increasingly pondering in recent weeks whether the ramifications of a military operation in Iran outweigh the risks posed by a nuclear Islamic Republic, but a top security expert says that issue is far more complex than deciding whether to strike or not to strike.
Former Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin says that before Israel can consider striking Iran's nuclear facilities, it must exhaust all other alternatives – namely, the diplomatic route to stop Tehran from developing an atom bomb. In an essay titled "A Conceptual Framework and Decision Making Model for Israel about Iran," Yadlin, who now heads the Institute for National Security Studies, notes that substantive sanctions must be employed in an effort to coerce Tehran into a "good agreement." Such a deal would force Iran to get rid of most of its enriched uranium, stop operations at the Fordo plant and allow for in-depth inspections of its facilities. "A good agreement would be measured by its ability to stop the nuclear clock and even turn it back," Yadlin says. "A good agreement would keep Iran at least two years away from nuclear bombs."
'Israel can't do it alone'
But Yadlin also states that without a credible threat of military action, diplomacy and other strategies to block or delay Iranian nuclearization would be ineffective. In addition to sanctions, he lists negotiations, covert action and regime change as alternatives to a strike.
Meanwhile, the international community must ready for the possibility that no such agreement will be reached, Yadlin says: "It is also important to build up maximal legitimacy for a future strike should diplomacy fail."Yadlin stresses that if the military option is chosen, it won't be an isolated incident, but would require a broader, long-term strategy that incorporates the entire international community.
"Theoretically, the best result of a military operation would be a five year delay. To turn those five years into ten – and then into many decades… – it is incumbent to ensure that the entire world is prepared to participate in the ongoing effort to stop Iran the day and the decade after the attack.
"Demonstrating the scope of losses to Iran from maintaining its military nuclear program, continuing the sanctions, blocking critical technologies and materials, threatening repeated attacks, and continuing diplomatic pressure are all part of a necessary next stage campaign in which Israel cannot succeed on its own.
"This manifests the importance of gaining legitimacy for an Israeli strike and international – or at least American – recognition that Israel acted only after all other attempts had failed."
And any effort to garner such legitimacy would have to begin with a transparent dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington.
"An open, in-depth dialogue between Israel and the United States may, to the extent there is trust between the two leaders, lead to the possibility of realizing the third option, i.e., neither 'the bomb' nor 'the bombing,'" Yadlin says. "If the Iranian nuclear project is not blocked by agreement or covert activity and its nuclear clock does not stop ticking, military action against Iran would earn greater legitimacy, along with American support the day and the decade after. Without legitimacy allowing an international campaign over the subsequent decade, Israel faces the risk of finding itself opting for bombing and bearing its full cost, and still ending up with the Iranian bomb and its attendant dangers."
'Iran's retaliation would be tolerable' Addressing the Iranian retaliation to an attack within its territory, Yadlin postulates that it won't be as perilous as suggested by some US officials.
"Iran’s threats prior to an attack are an effective means of deterrence, but the Iranians have neither the capability nor the interest in setting fire to the entire Middle East," he writes. "It is almost certain that there would be an Iranian response after an attack, but calculated Iranian interests suggest that it would be measured and tolerable, especially in light of the achievement of stopping Iran’s nuclear program."
Furthermore, Yadlin stresses that the discussion of the Iranian issue must veer away from the notion that Israel alone is concerned.
"The Iranian nuclear issue is a strategic, security, and political challenge to the entire international community, and Israel must avoid leading the global charge against Iran," he emphasizes. "It behooves Israel to take a back seat and not assume exclusive responsibility for preventing Iranian nuclearization."

US punched Bibi, Barak in the face
Analysis: Dempsey's remark regarding IDF's inability to destroy Iran's nuclear capability meant to show Israel who's boss
Attila Somfalvi Published: 08.15.12, 20:03 / Israel Opinion
Once every few years Israel needs a slap in the face to remember where it stands in the world. On Tuesday it was US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey who assumed the role of the responsible adult and slapped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the duo orchestrating the national hysteria surrounding the possibility of an attack in Iran.
Israel can "delay but not destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities," he said while sitting next to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who visited Israel a few weeks ago to allay the concerns of the leadership in Jerusalem. Dempsey's comments should be taken seriously, as should the stern message conveyed by Panetta, the White House and the American security establishment: If we can't reason with you, the Israelis, we will have to get tough. The general's remark was not a slip-of-the-tongue. It was a calculated statement from a general of Irish descent and character. His words constituted a slap in Israel's face, a punch in the face, and a kick to the most sensitive part of the body. To be more precise, the US slammed Israel's head against the wall and said: "Shut up. Stop babbling about Iran. Without us there is not much you can do, and don't assume for a second that we are dancing to your tune. You shouldn't do anything stupid, and stop driving the entire world crazy."
This was the message behind Dempsey's comment. You don't believe it? Just imagine what would have happened had an American general, after decades of ambiguity, would have held a press conference and announced that Israel does not have nuclear weapons, or that it does. Now think again about the meaning of Dempsey's statement, which was made after months and even years in which Israel was building up its image as an omnipotent power in the Middle East. Dempsey's comments can even be considered earth-shattering: The US, Israel's closest ally and confidante, has decided to bring the Jewish state's leadership to its knees and hurt our exaggerated self-confidence and undermine our deterrence. No less.
Dempsey was painfully clear. He basically said that Israel should not disregard the opinions of its top security officials, stop the constant chatter on Iran and refrain from any acts that may have an adverse effect on the global economy. The general also meant to tell Israel that it mustn't believe that Netanyahu has any control over the US because he has friends in the Republican Party. Dempsey laid down the facts: Israel is not America, it does not possess the same capabilities, and if Netanyahu and Barak continue wreaking havoc – Israel won’t have America either. It will take a while before we will be able to gauge the depth of the current crisis between Israel and the US (and between Netanyahu and Obama). Washington made a strategic decision to show Israel who is the mentor and who is the protégé. The US hit Israel's most sensitive nerve: The pride in its military power. But it appears that the US had no other choice. After weeks of belligerent headlines, President Obama had enough of Netanyahu's inclination to play with fire. We should start getting used to it.

In violation of peace accord, Egypt deploying troops in Sinai without Israel's prior approval
By Avi Issacharoff | Aug.16, 2012 /Haaretz
Egyptian troops arrest a man suspected of involvement in terrorism, August 2012. Photo by Reuters Text size Comments (0) Print Page Send to friend Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share this story is byAvi Issacharoff related tagsEgypt Sinai Israel terrorism Middle East peace The Egyptian army has been deploying large anti-terrorist forces in parts of the Sinai peninsula without informing Israel in advance. The peace treaty between the two countries limits the Egyptian military presence in Sinai.
Some of the Egyptian forces in the peninsula were sent there with Israel's consent, but Haaretz has learned that forces have also been deployed without Israel's prior approval. Israeli government officials only learned about it after the fact. Although Israeli defense officials declined to comment on the matter, they did note that there has been good security cooperation between the two countries, adding that there is regular contact between the two sides. The Egyptian troop movements come in response to the expanding power vacuum in Sinai. On August 5, militants took over an Egyptian border post in the peninsula, killing 16 soldiers and stealing two armored personnel carriers that then headed to the Israeli border. One of the APCs exploded in the Kerem Shalom border terminal linking Egypt, Gaza and Israel; the other drove two kilometers into Israeli territory before it was hit in an Israel Air Force strike.
According to the 1979 peace agreement negotiated at Camp David, Egypt is not allowed to introduce tanks into certain areas of Sinai, including the vicinity of Al-Arish, to which dozens of tanks have been transported over the past several days. The treaty also bars the use of fighter aircraft, including helicopters, but that was approved retroactively by the Israeli security cabinet.
More than a year ago, Israel agreed to allow Egypt to maintain seven military battalions and six companies in Sinai, including tank units, in addition to the forces permitted by the peace treaty itself. Before the August 5 terrorist attack, Egypt had not stationed the full complement of troops in Sinai that it was permitted. Since the attack, the Egyptians have done so, but have also exceeded the terms to which Israel has agreed. At the moment, Israel has decided not to respond to the unilateral Egyptian moves, apparently to avoid a confrontation. Nonetheless, it is seen as a source of future problems, particularly with the entrenchment of the Muslim Brotherhood's power in Egypt. The Egyptians could ask to have their current troop presence remain in Sinai until the end of their military operations there, although it is not clear when that would be. The situation puts Israel in a dilemma. Just three days ago, Mohammed Gadallah, legal adviser to President Mohammed Morsi, said the president was considering amendments to the Camp David Accords to provide Egypt with "full sovereignty" over the peninsula.
Speaking at the Islamic Solidarity Conference in Mecca yesterday, Morsi stressed that for Egypt and Arab Muslim countries, the Palestinian issue remains the most urgent, and called on the Palestinians to unite their ranks. This week, Egypt's Information Minister Salah Abd al-Maksud, a Muslim Brotherhood member, said: "Egypt will not normalize relations with Israel until occupied Palestinian land is freed." He added that "we are carrying out our relations with Israel based on agreements Israel has made with Egypt. Therefore, even if we request to change some stipulations of the Camp David Accords, the president and national institutions have stated that they respect the agreement." However, Maksud also said that "this entity [Israel] stole Palestinian lands, and for this reason we will not normalize relations with it until those lands are freed." The information minister was not asked, and did not specify, if the "occupied lands" include territory conquered in 1967, or all of Israel.

Syrians kidnapped across Lebanon amid reports of pilgrims’ deaths
August 15, 2012 /Syrians were kidnapped across Lebanon on Wednesday as enraged residents of Beirut’s predominantly Shiite suburb of Dahiyeh attacked Syrians amid reports that Lebanese pilgrims abducted in Syria had been killed in an air strike. LBC television cited a rebel spokesperson as saying that four of the Shiite pilgrims abducted in Syria had been killed by an airstrike in the Aleppo town of Aazaz.The reports came after AFP said that ten houses had bombed in the town outside Aleppo. Following news of the pilgrims’ deaths, a number of their relatives hijacked a van on Beirut’s airport road and kidnapped the Syrian workers on board, according to New TV.Meanwhile, enraged residents in Beirut’s Dahiyeh took to the streets and attacked and kidnapped dozens of Syrian nationals.
The armed gunmen also vandalized shops and cars belonging to Syrians, the National News Agency added. "Some of the attackers vandalized shops, destroyed cars for sale, and kidnapped dozens of Syrians," it said. "The situation has got out of control."MTV reported that four gunmen kidnapped Syrian national Bahaa al-Bahaya in the Shouf’s Baalishmay.The kidnappings came on the heels of an abduction earlier in the day of “more than 20 Free Syrian Army members” by the military wing of the Moqdad family, who warned that they would kidnap Qatari and Saudi citizens.Their action was in response to the kidnapping of a Moqdad family member in Syria. The FSA identified the abductee as a Hezbollah member, but the Shiite party denied the charges.
The Saudi Arabian Embassy in Lebanon later issued a stark warning following the kidnappings, calling on their nationals to leave the country “immediately.” The UAE followed suit on Wednesday evening.
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awad Assiri told the National News Agency that he had no information on a fellow national being kidnapped in Lebanon, but there were conflicting reports that the Moqdad family had abducted a Saudi.In May, 11 Shiite pilgrims were abducted in Syria’s Aleppo while returning from a pilgrimage in Iran.Following the abduction, a previously unknown armed group calling itself the "Syrian Revolutionaries – Aleppo Province" said that it was holding the Shiite men, while the Free Syrian Army had repeatedly denied its involvement in the abduction.-NOW Lebanon

Gulf Arab countries urge their nationals to leave Lebanon
August 15, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE urged their citizens Wednesday to leave Lebanon immediately amid threats by members of a Lebanese clan who kidnapped earlier in the day over 30 Syrians, as well as one Saudi and one Turkish national.
Saudi Ambassador Ali Awad al-Asiri, who is in Mecca, told the National News Agency he requested all Saudi nationals in Lebanon to leave the country after “the threats have become open.” Asiri was referring to threats earlier in the day by the Meqdad clan, which said it could take action against Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey over the kidnapping of one its members earlier this week in Syria. The Meqdad clan said Wednesday it abducted over 30 individuals it described as belonging to the Free Syrian Army, which it claims was behind the kidnapping Monday of their kinsman Hassan Meqdad. The Lebanese clan also said it had in its custody one Saudi and one Turkish national.The Meqdads hold Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia responsible for the kidnapping given their backing to Syrian rebels. The family also held the Lebanese government responsible for not putting enough efforts to release their relative.
The Saudi ambassador told the NNA that he had also requested that all Saudi nationals avoid travel to Lebanon “given the current circumstances.”He also denied any knowledge “of Saudi nationals having been kidnapped in Lebanon.”The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait issued similar travel advisories to its citizens in Lebanon.

Kidnappings veer Lebanon toward 'major chaos'
August 16, 2012/By Thomas El-Basha/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The kidnappings Wednesday of over two dozen Syrians, a Turkish national and one Saudi citizen by a local Lebanese clan in retaliation for the abduction of one of their own in Damascus has edged this small Mediterranean country closer to major political chaos, political sources warned.
Arab reactions to the kidnappings – travel advisories by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates that their citizens should leave the country immediately – cast further doubts over Lebanon’s ability to weather the unrest in its eastern neighbor Syria.
“What happened today is a clear indication that we are at the brink of major chaos in Lebanon,” a senior political source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Daily Star Thursday.
“The storm in Syria has reached Lebanon now and there is no going back,” the source added.
Wednesday’s kidnappings were further complicated by conflicting reports of the fate of 11 Lebanese pilgrims abducted in Syria in May, with several media saying that the pilgrims were killed in a Syrian army aerial bombardment of Azaz, in the northwest of Syria.
A source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Daily Star that the 11 pilgrims, who were kidnapped in Syria on May 22 shortly after crossing from Turkey, were still alive and safe.
The Meqdad clan, which hails from east Lebanon’s Bekaa region, said Wednesday it kidnapped over 30 men it said were members or supporters of the Free Syrian Army in retaliation for the abduction of one of its kinsman earlier in the week in Damascus.
Maher Meqdad, who said his family fields an armed wing, told The Daily Star Wednesday that his clan had taken matters into its own hands as the Lebanese government had taken no steps to free their kinsman, Hassan Meqdad. “We will do it ourselves, and we have what you can call a regulated army to do the job,” he said.
Maher said that his family was acting according to the “eye for an eye” principle, and no longer needs the Lebanese government to intervene in order to secure the release of Hassan.
According to one Arab media report, Hassan was detained by the FSA in the Syrian capital Monday on suspicion of belonging to Hezbollah and aiding the Syrian regime in its fight against the rebels.
Hezbollah denied Tuesday Hassan was a member of the resistance.
Despite FSA denials Wednesday that the rebel group was not behind Hassan’s abduction, the Meqdads said they would continue their actions until Hassan was released.
The group also held Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey responsible for Hassan’s kidnapping, “because they support the FSA,” and backed their threats against them by abducting a Turkish national and a Saudi citizen. Saudi Arabia, citing the “open threats” against it, instructed its nationals to leave the country immediately.
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awad al-Asiri told the National News Agency that he had also requested that all Saudi nationals not visit the country “given the current circumstances.”
The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar issued similar travel advisories, warning its citizen to stay away from Lebanon and for those in the country to leave as soon as possible.
The travel advisories issued throughout the day coincided with action by the relatives of the kidnapped on the street.
With burning tires, a number of the relatives blocked the road both to and from Beirut’s international airport, which led to at least one carrier altering its planned arrival in Beirut to Amman, Jordan.
The NNA reported that there were also preparations to block the Beirut-Damascus highway leading to the eastern border crossing of Masnaa.

Muslim Brotherhood 'Crucifies' Opponents, Attacks Secular Media
by Raymond Ibrahim
Investigative Project on Terrorism
August 15, 2012
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/12131/muslim-brotherhood-crucifies-opponents-attacks
Last week in Egypt, when Muslim Brotherhood supporters terrorized the secular media, several Arabic websites—including Arab News, Al Khabar News, Dostor Watany, and Egypt Now—reported that people were being "crucified." The relevant excerpt follows in translation:
A Sky News Arabic correspondent in Cairo confirmed that protestors belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood crucified those opposing Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi naked on trees in front of the presidential palace while abusing others. Likewise, Muslim Brotherhood supporters locked the doors of the media production facilities of 6-October [a major media region in Cairo], where they proceeded to attack several popular journalists.
Security forces rescuing one of those scourged by Muslim Brotherhood supporters (from Dostor Watany).
That there were attacks and violence—both in front of Egypt's presidential palace and at major media facilities—is well-documented. An August 9 report by El Balad, a widely read Egyptian website, gives the details:
Last Wednesday, August 8, "thousands of the Muslim Brotherhood's supporters" attacked 6-October's media facilities, beat Khaled Salah—chief editor of the privately-owned and secular Youm 7 newspaper—prevented Yusif al-Hassani, an On TV broadcaster, from entering the building, and generally "terrorized the employees."
El Balad adds that the supporters of Tawfik Okasha, another vocal critic of President Morsi—the one who widely disseminated the graphic video of a Muslim apostate being slaughtered to cries of "Allahu Akbar"—gathered around the presidential palace, only to be surrounded by Brotherhood supporters, who "attacked them with sticks, knives, and Molotov cocktails, crucifying some of them on trees, leading to the deaths of two and the wounding of dozens."
Far from condemning these terrorists, Al Azhar, Egypt's most authoritative Islamic institution, has just issued a fatwa calling for more violence and suppression, saying that "fighting participants in anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations planned for 24 August is a religious obligation."
Most of the aforementioned Arabic sites point out that these attacks are part of the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign to intimidate and thus censor Egypt's secular media from exposing the group's Islamist agenda, which Youm 7, On TV, and Okasha do daily. [Note: the latter's channel was recently shut down, despite Morsi's previous reassurances that "no station or media will be shut down in my era."]
These threats are not new; back in April, an organization called the "Jihad Group to Cleanse the Country" threatened these media with "painful and severe punishments." Apparently now that Morsi has become master of Egypt, threats are becoming reality, just as promises are being broken.
And the threats are taking their toll. Sky News, which was first to report about the crucifixions, has taken down its original article (though the URL still appears in the address box with the Arabic words "protesters-crucified-in front of-egypt's-presidential-palace").
While one may argue that Sky News removed the article because it was found false, one can equally argue that it censored itself for fear that it would be next in the terror campaign against the media.
In reality, there is little reason to doubt this crucifixion story. Militant Muslims crucifying their opponents is a regular feature of the Islamic world—recent cases coming from the Ivory Coast, where two Christian brothers were crucified, similarly by supporters of a Muslim president who ousted a Christian; Indonesia, where Islamic separatists crucified a fellow Muslim for being a military informant; and in Iraq, where Muslim militants crucified Christian children.
Moreover, those alleged to have been crucified in Egypt certainly fit the Koran's description of who deserves to be crucified. According to Allah, "The punishment of those who wage war against Allah and His messenger and strive to make mischief in the land is only this: that they should be murdered or crucified or their hands and their feet should be cut off…" (Koran 5:33).
"Making mischief in the land" is precisely what the secular media is being accused of, by constantly exposing the Muslim Brotherhood and prompting the people to protest. Even the Jihad Group to Cleanse the Country, which threatens to "liquidate" many secular media, accuses them of "creating chaos to implement the American and Zionist agenda."
Finally, it is telling that only a few months ago, and for the first time in Egypt's modern history, an Egyptian MP proposed to institutionalize Sharia's most draconian punishments—including crucifixion.
Under the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the bottle has been uncorked and the Islamic Genie set loose. Expect much worse to come.

23 July revolution: The closing credits
By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
The political developments in Egypt following the 25 January revolution have resulted in numerous surprises, completely shocking political pundits and observers to the point that they must continually review and reconsider their analysis and expectations. The climax of these dramatic surprises took place during the Egyptian presidential election when both the late Omar Suleiman and Khairat al-Shater announced their presidential candidacies, only to drop out of the race soon afterwards, this is not to mention the elections results themselves and the ensuring relationship between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces [SCAF] and the newly-elected president. However the surprises did not end here, as has been made clear today, by the surprising decision taken by Mohamed Mursi, Egypt’s first civilian president, to replace the entire military leadership, in such an easy manner.
Manny people expected a confrontation between the new President and SCAF, particularly as his powers were limited by the Comprehensive Constitutional Declaration which practically turned Egypt into a country with two different centers of power, namely the presidency and SCAF. However nobody expected the situation to develop this quickly. This is why President Mursi's latest decision has come as a complete surprise, provoking speculation regarding what is truly happening. This decision brought about huge changes in the military leadership, including replacing the Minister of Defense, Chief of Staff and numerous military commanders, in addition to cancelling the Constitutional Declaration. Many people have put forward different scenarios regarding this decision, questioning whether this is a coup through which the Muslim Brotherhood is tightening its group on the state, or whether it is part of a previous agreement, which has been described by some as a “safe exit” agreement? Will the Egyptian military accept this decision, however it plays out? In addition to this, some people are considering this decision the official end of the 23 July [1952] revolution regime, which gave rise to four successive Egyptian presidents, all of whom shared a military background.
The indications, reactions and statements issued by different parties to this decision reflect the need to be careful about using the term “conflict” or “coup”. For it is clear that the changes that have been introduced to Egypt’s military leadership, as well as transferring SCAF’s powers – which were granted to the military council by the Constitutional Declaration – to the presidency took place in coordination with SCAF and the army leaders, particularly the younger generation [of officers]. Even if this is truly a coup, Mursi would not have been able to pull this off without coordinating with military leaders who want to see change.
The rumour mill in Egypt is clearly thriving because such changes in government circles are usually kept tightly under wraps. The rumour mill has thrived since the 25 January revolution until the present day, particularly thanks to stories of secret agreements between the Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF. One of the writers who has bought into these stories is British columnist Robert Fisk, and in an article written for Britain’s Independent newspaper six weeks ago [President Mursi, a rigged ballot and a fox’s tale that has all of Cairo abuzz] he touches upon the story of the “fox in Tahrir Square” and certain rumours, some of which are believable, others not. However what is striking is that Fisk made reference to Egypt’s Military Intelligence, whose director has now been appointed as the country’s Defense Minister, not to mention his officers who are said to be sympathetic towards the revolution.
There have been a number of stories and rumours being put forward, the latest of which was refuted on Monday by the Egyptian presidency, namely that former Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi and former Chief of Staff Sami Annan are under house arrest. However what news agencies were reporting on Monday regarding the statement put forward by the administrator of the SCAF official website may summarize the entire story, particularly the section of the statement that stressed that changes in leadership are normal and that the banner has been handed from the October generation [Yom Kippur War, called the 1973 October war in the Arab world] to the next generation to continue the journey. The SCAF official website also issued a tribute to the retired military commanders, stressing that they will remain in the Egyptian people's hearts and minds and confirming that the armed forces has never been a source of disturbance or unrest in Egypt, neither has it ever sought power.
One generation handing over the reins of power to another; this is the general line that will solidify in the minds of future historians regarding what is happening in Egypt now, the rest is merely details. The previous four presidents of Egypt ruled the country based on different legitimacy, yet they all leaned on the legitimacy of the 23 July revolution. In addition to this, each president sought to establish their own personal legitimacy, President Sadat, for example, sought to establish his legitimacy by confronting [Nasserite and left-wing] “centers of power” and shifting towards an open-door economy. Following this, Mubarak came to power, based on his legitimacy as a member of the October generation, and now we are witnessing a new form of legitimacy created by the Muslim Brotherhood, and we ultimately do not know how this legitimacy will crystalize, however what is certain is that this represents the final scene for the 23 July revolution.

Damascus unrest: First-hand accounts
By Asharq Al-Awsat/London / Damascus, Asharq Al-Awsat – Haifa felt a sense of embarrassment when her friend asked her “what food are your preparing for today’s iftar?” and began her answer with a long passage regarding the joyful reunion of her siblings – and their children – at the family home in Damascus.
Haifa, who is 50-years old and unmarried, continues to live in the family home in the Syrian capital’s al-Salahiya district, along with her younger siblings, whilst her remaining 6 siblings are scattered across the capital and the surrounding region, in addition to two others who emigrated from Syria more than two decades ago. Despite this, Haifa and her siblings remain in contact, often gathering at the family home in Damascus for celebrations and family occasions.
This year has been particularly difficult for the family, and they have been unable to reunite and get-together as much as usual. However the majority of Haifa’s siblings lately found themselves under the same roof once more after they took the decision to leave their own homes, which are dotted around Damascus – many in districts and neighborhoods that have been beset by clashes – and return to the safety of the family home. This coincided with one of Haifa’s elder brothers, who had made a life abroad having left the country almost twenty years ago, returning to Syria to be reunited with his siblings during this difficult time.
Although the circumstances of this meeting are extremely unusual, Haifa is happy to see her siblings together again, and has suggested a celebratory feast, with grilled meat, kibba and tabbouleh being prepared for the evening’s iftar. Haifa attempted to convey all of this to her friend, who answered “it is iftar, not a celebration” adding “certainly nobody can be happy during this period, for grief is present in the hearts of everybody!”
The kibba and grilled meat, not to mention the family reunion, have signaled joyous scenes in this one Syrian household; however it is as if Haifa is embarrassed or ashamed of these feelings of happiness during such a difficult and tense time in Syrian history, particularly as the rest of the Syrian people are not able to share in such feelings. The Syrian people as a whole are sad and unhappy regarding the situation that the country finds itself in, and many of them feel extremely bitter towards anybody who does not share their discontent.
For his part, Danny, a Syrian youth engaged in relief work who witnesses the horrors and tragedies that affect Syria’s displaced citizens on a daily basis, expressed his own dissatisfaction at his neighbors, who held a large wedding ceremony at one of the neighborhood halls, describing them as “insensitive”. He stressed that “it is not acceptable to dance publicly to loud music and colorful lights whilst dozens of people are being killed every day, and grief clogs the hearts of their mothers!” The Syrian youth asserted “I do not object to other people’s happiness…it is their right to experience happiness and joy, but they have to respect the feelings of those whose lives have been devastated, and therefore they should celebrate modestly.”
He added that his own family is experiencing “extreme boredom” due to being cooped up at home as a result of the tense security situation that is prevalent across the city. He revealed that his father is forced to remain at home for the majority of the day, after it became too difficult for him to travel to work in the Damascus suburbs. He added that the situation is also difficult for his younger brothers and sisters, particularly as it is the summer holidays and it is too dangerous for them to leave the house. He said that their only means of entertainment is the television or video games, which creates an even tenser atmosphere in the home.
The Syrian youth, who lives in Damascus’s commercial district, revealed that this tense atmosphere occasionally erupts into verbal quarrels. Despite the tense atmosphere at home, Danny stressed “we are wary of going to public places, despite our need to do so” adding “this is not possible even if there are no bombardments or clashes, for there is no family that has not seen a son or daughter injured or killed. We are surrounded by death and destruction, even if only indirectly.”
Danny also revealed that “the day before yesterday I was close to an explosion at the Semiramis hotel near Marja Square, and I found myself in the midst of an intense firefight…bullets were hitting the ground like hailstones, it was shocking!” He confirmed that “death is walking the streets”
For her part, Maysa, who is one of Danny’s friends and neighbors, takes an opposing view, stressing that “life cannot just stop!”. Maysa, who also helps in relief work, asked “what has a child done to be imprisoned at home? It seems as if this crisis will last for a long time, so we must live with it.”
Maysa encouraged the idea of residents building and adapting their rooftops as a place to meet one another and pass the time. She said “my neighbor, Abu Subhy, had the wonderful idea of spending some of his time following iftar on the roof, and soon neighbors began to join him there, and everybody is now coming to the roof with their families, swapping drinks and sweets.” She added “these gatherings are full of happiness and jokes…and tears.”
She viewed this idea as a model solution, as it allows neighbors to get together and support one another during these difficult times. However this is not always possible, particularly should clashes erupt suddenly or explosions and bombardment target nearby neighborhoods, whereupon everybody takes refuge in their own homes.
Haifa, who remained at home for a number of weeks after clashes erupted in the heart of the city, finally took the decision to try and return to a normal life. Haifa said that she refused to die at home in fear, and began to visit her friends in their homes, as well as invite them to visit her at the family home, however they will not be visiting cafes and restaurants as they did in the past!
However Haifa revealed that she did respond to one invitation to meet a friend at the “al-Sharq” restaurant in Damascus. She revealed that “one friend invited me to iftar at al-Sharq restaurant, one of the oldest and most famous restaurants in Damascus, to celebrate her son’s birthday and also to bid her farewell, as she was leaving the country for Canada. I was surprised that the restaurant was practically empty, for in the past one would need to book a table at least days in advance.”
She added “you could count the number of occupied tables on one hand, whilst there was a very tense atmosphere that was full of talk about who has been killed or arrested or kidnapped, and where the new checkpoints are being established, and which districts are quiet and which ones are being bombarded, as well as what happened to so-and-so’s family, and so on.”
Haifa said “what is interesting is that even our jokes are now about terror, killing and our daily experiences with checkpoints and raids.” She relates the story of how a son who had a difficult relationship with his father was kidnapped by one of the Damascus gangs, and when the kidnappers ask for a ransom of 5 million lira, the father answers ‘I do not need the son you kidnapped…and if you have 5,000 lira to spare, please send it to me.” Haifa laughs at this story, claiming that the kidnappers believed the father and released the son unharmed. Haifa stressed that although such stories illicit laughter, this is a form of gallows humor, and it fails to dispel the grief and sadness in most people’s hearts, particularly as the future remains unknown.
There is also Amal, a secondary school teacher who fled the capital for her hometown of al-Damir [40 km north of Damascus] during the summer holidays only to find that 2,500 families had sought refuge there, having been displaced from across the country. After spending two days of boredom and sadness trapped within the walls of her childhood home with only her elderly mother for company, Amal decided to take action to alleviate her boredom, as well as help the suffering Syrian people. As a result of this, Amal, along with some friends, have set up a database of key requirements for families who have been displaced from their homes with the objective of organizing some relief operations to provide assistance to the suffering.
This work has taken over Amal’s waking hours, and she stressed that “we cannot sit quietly at home when the country is burning; we are facing a huge humanitarian crisis!”
Amal previously took part in relief operations in the capital Damascus, but this had a limited impact. She said “when I was in Damascus, the after-school hours would pass in vain, and this gave one feelings of helplessness; every day we would hear sounds of explosions and monitor the growing number of displaced people in Damascus’s streets, squares and school, and we were unable to do anything to stop the situation from deteriorating further and further.”
She added “I tried to participate in the protests however the brutality of the security forces made me hesitate to continue, particularly as I am a young women living far from home.”
Amal tried to spend her time on the internet, raising awareness of what was happening in Syria via social networking sites such as Facebook; however the internet restrictions imposed in the country prevented this. Amal said that she felt depressed and “hated life” during this period, however it seems as if her recent activities helping Syria’s displaced have brought about a change.
Radwan, a pediatrician who lives in central Damascus, also expressed his sense of depression and boredom, particularly as his clinic – located across town – was forcibly closed. Radwan said that he has spent most of his time since the outbreak of clashes in Al Qadisiya district at home, particularly following the regime forces bombardment of the area. He revealed that despite the danger he goes to a sports club four times a week, but this does not fill the vacancy that has been left in his life by the closure of his clinic.
Radwan revealed that he has been married for twenty years and that he had never previously quarreled with his wife or children, however such quarrels have erupted during the recent tense period. He said “every day there is a problem, every day there is heated debate, we are all feeling aggrieved.” He revealed that his wife has begun to allow the children to play with the neighbors children on the communal staircase, which they were previously not allowed to do, adding “she is also not able to stand their noise in the house all day.” However he stressed that the children are safe within the confines of the apartment block, and are not allowed on the street, particularly as “Azrael [the Angel of death] is walking the streets these days.”
**“ This article was written by an Asharq Al-Awsat correspondent in Damascus. The correspondent’s name is being protected to ensure their safety.

A Bashar al-Assad Ramadan!
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
The countdown to the end of the Bashar al-Assad regime seems to have begun during the holy month of Ramadan, and this coincided with the escalation of massacres committed against the grieving people of Syria. It seems as if the Syrian regime has taken the decision to break its fast during Ramadan, with Syria’s cities being its preferred dish! Whilst if it is true to say that the Syrian people’s favoured drink, particularly during the month of Ramadan, is Qamardeen juice [made from dried apricot], then the al-Assad regime seems to prefer the Syrian people’s blood, shedding this without mercy! The regime carried out massacres in Aleppo and Damascus, as well as other parts of the country, as a warning that it intended to still be in power at the end of the month, when it will celebrate Eid in its own style! The regime showed that those who are indifferent to the sanctity of blood do not care about the sanctity of the holy month of Ramadan. For the regime, the beginning of the month of Ramadan was characterized by clashes, whilst the middle of the month saw massacres, and we are now ending the holy month with people being thrown into the fire!
The Syrian regime's month of massacres was not preceded by the rising of a new moon; rather we have 25 million moons shining brightly, namely the Syrian people. Whenever a Syrian rises to demand his human dignity and freedom, the regime’s thugs would come out to say: welcome to tyranny and injustice! Whilst when the regime is breaking its fast with Syrian blood, killing the brave Syrian people, each executioner would murmur: O leader, we have broken our fast with your blessing and quenched our thirst for blood; therefore our reward and pay are all deserved! It is said that the devils are chained up during Ramadan, however this is with the exception of Syria, where al-Assad’s devils and demons have been unleashed to wreak havoc. Indeed, this is their favourite time, for in other months, the regime was only able to confront and kill the people on a large-scale on Fridays, however during Ramadan the people come together in this manner every day to pray Taraweeh prayers and this is an irresistible opportunity to make sacrificial offerings to Maher al-Assad and the Syrian bloodsuckers!
All Muslims recite the Quran during the holy month, whereas the al-Assad regime thugs read the Baathist party’s holy book day and night, filling their hearts with fear of the regime, which in terns impels them to seek forgiveness and dread its torture! Excuse me, did I say Baathist party? What Baathist party? The Syrian Baathist party is nothing more than the greatest and most cunning deception on the world at large. This “Baathism” is nothing but a cover that the al-Assad regime is using to conceal its sectarianism. How else can we explain a supposedly “secular” regime building such strong alliances with the mullahs of Iran? How can this regime function as the official sponsor of Iran’s deputy in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah? Nasrallah may dress in a robe and turban, but the fact of the matter is that the Syrian popular uprising has exposed him and his disgraceful stance towards a nation that is suffering the most barbaric forms of torture and killing.
The Syrian people have carried out brave and courageous deeds on Syrian soil, particularly as their uprising has been prolonged and they have faced the regime’s unparalleled tyranny, torture and violence! The Syrian people are well aware that retreat at this point would only mean even more violence, and therefore they can only continue to go forward. However this is not enough, for the Syrian people today are in dire need of funding and weapons and now that the Syrian regime’s grip on the country is weakening, there is no excuse not to arm the Syrian rebels. As the fighting intensifies across Syria during the holy month of Ramadan, the Syrian rebels are running out of ammunition. I read one tweet from the Free Syrian Army, which said “when we announce our withdrawal from any location after we have run out of ammunition, the Arabs who are standing idly by should know that they have run out of morality!” The chant, “your silence is killing us” has reverberated across Syria; however it has failed to find an echo in the Arab world. Now is the time for serious action to stop the regime shedding the Syrian people’s blood, as well as to shackle all its devils and demons, particularly the top devil himself, as he has taught them all this evil!

Syria's Summer War and the Fate of the Regime
Jeffrey White /Washington Institute
August 14, 2012
As the Syrian conflict intensifies, the area under full government control continues to shrink; the question now is the speed of the regime's descent.
Syria's internal war has increased dramatically in intensity and scope over the past three months. Reported clashes between regime forces and the armed opposition doubled in May, then again in June, and yet again in July. Last month was the most violent of the war, with some 552 clashes reported and an estimated 1,100 regime personnel killed or wounded. Although the armed rebels also took casualties (estimated at 624 in July), their strength in men and combat formations appeared to grow. Meanwhile, the dramatic July 18 assassination of four key officials in Damascus, though not a fatal blow, exposed the regime's vulnerability at its innermost core. Similarly, its loss of territory in the northwest along with certain border crossings exposed its weakness on the periphery. These developments demonstrate that the regime's strategy for dealing with the rebellion is failing, despite its decision to employ very high levels of violence, go ever deeper into its arsenal, and rely more heavily on irregular forces.
THE WAR COMES HOME
Now that the fighting has moved into the cities of Damascus and Aleppo -- the centers of the regime's political, military, and economic power -- the nature of the war has been transformed.
The battle for Damascus. The battle for the capital is connected to the fighting in Rif Damascus, the province that surrounds the city. These outlying areas serve as a base for both the regime and the rebels, with supplies and personnel for the fighting in Damascus moving through or coming from the province.
Fighting in Rif Damascus escalated in June and even more dramatically in July, coincident with fighting in the capital. This indicates the presence of strong rebel forces in both areas and suggests a degree of coordination among them.
Damascus saw its first major fighting of the war beginning on July 15, with clashes that continued for five days. Combat was widespread across the city, though of varying intensity. An average of sixteen clashes per day were reported in twenty-four different locations during this peak period, which included the deadly July 18 bombing operation against the president's brother-in-law and other top officials.
The regime responded forcefully to these challenges, moving combat forces into the city and employing heavy weapons indiscriminately, including attack helicopters. By July 20, most rebel elements had been compelled to withdraw from combat.
The battle for Aleppo. Clashes in Aleppo province greatly accelerated in July. Through the middle of the month, much of the fighting focused on the countryside, especially along the line of communication between Bab al-Salam (a crossing point on the Turkish border) and Aleppo city. Rebel forces gained control of a number of towns along this route as well as the border crossing, and regime forces were substantially driven or pulled out of much of the countryside. This in turn helped the opposition move forces into the city and sustain them during combat in subsequent weeks.
The battle for Aleppo city began in earnest on July 20, though some preliminary skirmishing occurred earlier. The southwestern Salah al-Din district quickly became the focus of sustained fighting that endured until August 9, when regime forces using air and artillery strikes pushed most rebel units out of the area. Since then, the regime has attempted to drive the rebels out of other strongholds in the city, so far with limited success. Fighting continues in the city as of this writing, including in Salah al-Din.
The regime’s limited success in Aleppo has come at substantial cost in terms of casualties, diversion of forces from other parts of the country (e.g., Idlib and the Damascus area), and international opprobrium against the air and artillery offensive. It has also re-energized discussion of no-fly zones among Syria's international opponents.
The battles for Aleppo and Damascus demonstrate the opposition's growing ability to organize, marshal, and sustain forces, as well as the regime's willingness and capacity to respond with massive force to threats against its centers of power. Although Bashar al-Assad may cede territory in some areas and settle for stalemate in others, there are places where he will commit whatever resources he believes are necessary to suppress resistance.
THE BATTLE FOR SYRIA'S SPINE
The western provinces of Deraa, Homs, and Hama all witnessed sharp increases in fighting in June and July. Idlib saw a slight decline in clashes, likely reflecting the regime's loss of territory to rebel forces and transfer of combat units to Aleppo to deal with the crisis there. These four provinces, along with Rif Damascus, form the regime's "spine," and it can ill afford to lose any of them. The line of communication from Damascus to Aleppo is already subject to frequent rebel attacks, especially in Idlib province.
THE REBEL CHALLENGE IN THE EAST
Fighting has also increased in the eastern provinces of Deir al-Zour, Raqqa, and Hasaka, though not as dramatically as in the west. Regime forces are stretched thin along the Euphrates Valley, with essentially one division operating from Raqqa to Abu Kamal, a distance of some 150 miles.
Deir al-Zour province is a particular challenge for the regime. Fighting is a daily occurrence in Deir al-Zour city, and clashes have been reported in at least six other locations in the province. A number of towns and villages are reportedly under rebel control, and on July 20, the regime lost control (at least temporarily) of the Iraqi border crossing at al-Qaim.
Raqqa province reportedly saw rebel activity in seven different areas as well, albeit significantly less than Deir al-Zour. A small but growing number of incidents was also reported in Hasaka, where the regime appears to be relying on Kurdish loyalists to suppress resistance (though some regime security forces are active there). A rebel threat to key east-west lines of communication is also developing, with an armed opposition presence in Tadmur (in eastern Homs province), al-Tabqa and Raqqa city (in Raqqa province), and Maskanah (in eastern Aleppo province).
UNRAVELING PROCESSES
The regime's recent difficulties highlight a number of processes whose cumulative effects are wearing it down:
Escalating clashes in nine of fourteen provinces in July
Growing attrition in personnel and equipment from combat, defection, and assassination
Signs that its forces are losing the will to fight (surrenders, abandoning of positions, failure to press attacks)
Operational and tactical failures, including the loss of territory and positions
Loss of the infrastructure of control due to seemingly well-conceptualized rebel attacks (e.g., on police stations, checkpoints, border posts, intelligence and security offices, the headquarters of the Baath Party and the regime's "Popular Army" militia)
Improving rebel military capabilities in terms of organization, numbers, and weapons
Attacks on state-run or associated media facilities and personnel, undermining Assad's ability to control people and territory
IMPLICATIONS
The intensification of fighting this summer and its movement into the heart of the regime indicates that the war has reached a critical stage. Given the recent battles in Damascus and Aleppo, the regime can no longer be confident of securing even the most critical parts of the country.
The fighting also demonstrates how far the armed opposition has come, and how difficult the regime's military position has become. From a small number of isolated, indifferently armed, and ill-trained "battalions," a much more competent armed opposition has emerged -- one capable of challenging the regime in critical areas despite its own persistent faults. For the regime, the war's trajectory is essentially downward. The speed of this descent is still in question, but not the process itself.
Going forward, the regime will likely begin breaking into pieces in the not too distant future. It will fight hardest to hold Aleppo, Damascus, and the Alawite heartland, but in doing so it will lose other regions. The portion of the country fully under government control is shrinking and will shrink more. This does not mean the war is over -- the regime has fought back and registered occasional, if incomplete, successes (e.g., the July fighting in Damascus), and it may yet succeed in driving most rebel forces out of Aleppo. But its control has been shaken in both cities, and its efforts there are weakening its hold elsewhere in the country.
Meanwhile, the opposition's relative success has also brought challenges for the rebels. As they gain territory, they must govern and defend it. And when the regime moves to retake such areas, it is essentially unconstrained in its operations, applying air and artillery forces fully and without regard to civilian casualties.
In light of these circumstances, imposing no-fly and/or no-drive zones in Syria would be a major boon to the rebels -- such a move would have the strongest and most immediate effect on the military and political situation because it would strike key weapons from the regime's hands, bolster rebel morale and effectiveness, and give the regime a clear signal that its end is approaching. Failing that, the rebels could be given the means to offset the regime's advantages, especially air-defense, antitank, and indirect-fire weapons. They have already demonstrated the will and ability to fight -- better means would help them win that fight sooner.
*Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute and a former senior defense intelligence officer.
 

Cowardice European Stances

The Europeans are so hesitant and extremely very unrealistic in regards to not putting Hezbollah on their terrorist lists. Hezbollah and other notorious  fanatic terrorist organizations are taking over their countries and creating very serious threats to their peace and still they appease and cajole them. Observers are not sure any more what these are doing and where are they heading. There is no doubt that if these civilized and democratic countries do not a courageous stand and face these threats with a very serious and effective strategy they will end ultimately under the control of these terrorist and fundamental invaders. Mean while the Mullahs in Iran are getting closes and closer to develop their devastating atomic capabilities while the Western and free world countries are wasting more time with futile sanctions and unproductive negotiations.  Our only hope in regards to Israel and Iran is Israel. Yesterday again the Iranian leadership threatened to annihilate Israel which makes it very clear that if they get their hands on an atomic bomb they will definitely use it. Sadly the USA defense ministry was so hesitating yesterday and declared that neither Israel or the USA are able to stop Iran from owning the bomb. Obama apparently is pro Iran and pro the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt and other Arab countries. The whole world and because of the stupid American and European policies a state of Chaos is prevailing and terrorism is escalating.
 

Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate Openly
Bilal Hussein/Associated Press
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has emphasized the importance of maintaining support in Europe.
By NICHOLAS KULISH
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/europe/hezbollah-banned-in-us-operates-in-europes-public-eye.htm?_r=1
Published: August 15, 2012
BERLIN — As American officials sound the alarm over what they call a resurgent threat from the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, thousands of its members and supporters operate with few restrictions in Europe, raising money that is funneled to the group’s leadership in Lebanon.
Washington and Jerusalem insist that Hezbollah is an Iranian-backed terrorist organization with bloody hands, and that it is working closely with Tehran to train, arm and finance the Syrian military’s lethal repression of the uprising there. Yet, the European Union continues to treat it foremost as a Lebanese political and social movement.
As Israel heightens fears of a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, intelligence analysts warn that Iran and Hezbollah would respond with attacks of their own on targets abroad. Israeli and American officials have attributed the Bulgarian bus bombing last month that killed six people, including five Israeli tourists, to Hezbollah and Iran, saying it was part of a clandestine offensive that has included plots in Thailand, India, Cyprus and elsewhere.
While the group is believed to operate all over the Continent, Germany is a center of activity, with 950 members and supporters last year, up from 900 in 2010, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said in its annual threat report. On Saturday, Hezbollah supporters and others will march here for the annual Jerusalem Day event, a protest against Israeli control of that city. Organizers told the Berlin police that the event would attract 1,000 marchers, and that two counterdemonstrations were also likely.
Hezbollah has maintained a low profile in Europe since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, quietly holding meetings and raising money that goes to Lebanon, where officials use it for an array of activities — building schools and clinics, delivering social services and, Western intelligence agencies say, carrying out terrorist attacks.
European security services keep tabs on the group’s political supporters, but experts say they are ineffective when it comes to tracking the sleeper cells that pose the most danger. “They have real, trained operatives in Europe that have not been used in a long time, but if they wanted them to become active, they could,” said Alexander Ritzmann, a policy adviser at the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels, who has testified before Congress on Hezbollah.
The European Union’s unwillingness to place the group on its list of terrorist organizations is also complicating the West’s efforts to deal with the Bulgarian bus bombing and the Syrian conflict. The week after the attack in Bulgaria, Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, traveled to Brussels for a regular meeting with European officials, where he called for the European Union to include Hezbollah on the list. But his pleas fell on deaf ears.
“There is no consensus among the E.U. member states for putting Hezbollah in the terrorist-related list of the organizations,” Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, the foreign minister of Cyprus, which holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, said at the time. “Should there be tangible evidence of Hezbollah engaging in acts of terrorism, the E.U. would consider listing the organization.”
The stark difference in views reflects the many roles that Hezbollah has played since it emerged in Lebanon after the Israeli invasion in 1982. Hezbollah’s militant wing was responsible for a string of kidnappings and for sophisticated bombings at home and has been accused of bombings abroad. But the group also became a source of social services that the shattered Lebanese government was incapable of providing, and has evolved since then into a political force with two cabinet ministers and a dozen seats in Parliament.
“They are quite professional in this, and this is something some Western donors are admitting that has a positive impression on some Western politicians,” said Stephan Rosiny, a research fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies in Hamburg.
That in turn provides a rationale for the group’s charitable networks among Lebanese immigrants in Europe. “They may collect money for their institutions, but they aren’t operating publicly,” Mr. Rosiny said. “As long as they aren’t involved in politics and aren’t operating openly, they are tolerated.”
From all indications to date, it is an arrangement that Hezbollah is eager to preserve. The group’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, has said that a European blacklist would “destroy Hezbollah. The sources of our funding will dry up and the sources of moral political and material support will be destroyed.” And Hezbollah’s defenders note that no hard evidence has been produced tying the group to the Bulgarian bus bombing.
Experts question how effectively European police officials are keeping track of the kind of serious, well-trained operatives capable of staging attacks versus counting up donors to funds for orphans of suicide bombers. “I don’t believe that they are able to monitor Hezbollah activities because Hezbollah is such a professional player,” said Guido Steinberg, an expert on terrorism with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“The supporters that march the streets with a Hezbollah flag are not a threat to national security,” Mr. Ritzmann said. “We’re more concerned with small groups — a car dealer, a grocer, or whatever, who operate in a traditional way like a sleeper cell would operate.”
Europe has long been more tolerant of militant Islamic groups than the United States. Before the 9/11 attacks, Al Qaeda maintained a media information office in London. Much of the planning and organization for the attacks took place in Hamburg, Germany, where the plot’s leader, Mohamed Atta, lived.
American officials privately complained for years about Germany’s reluctance to crack down on businesses that circumvent sanctions against Iran. The pressure appears to have paid off, with Germany last year agreeing to include the European-Iranian Trade Bank, based in Hamburg, on a European Union blacklist. On Wednesday, German police officials arrested four men suspected of sending special valves to Iran for use in the building of a heavy-water reactor.
Yet, where the American and Israeli governments see Iran and Hezbollah gearing up their long-dormant capacity for international terrorism, Europeans strongly differentiate between an international terrorist network like Al Qaeda and what is viewed here as a conflict pitting Israel and the United States on one side against Iran, Syria and Hezbollah on the other.
Some analysts say that Shiite groups like Hezbollah pose less of a risk than Sunni militant organizations like Al Qaeda. “The greatest danger from Islamist militants comes from the Salafists, not the Shiites but the Sunnis,” said Berndt Georg Thamm, a terrorism expert in Berlin, referring to a hard-line branch of Sunni Islam. He cited as examples the man who confessed to killing seven people in southwest France this year and the gunman who killed two United States airmen at the Frankfurt airport last year. “As far as Europe is concerned, Hezbollah is not what is moving it at the moment.”
The perception gap across the Atlantic is so great that American officials sound more concerned about the threat posed by Hezbollah to Europe than the Europeans themselves. “We assess that Hezbollah could attack in Europe or elsewhere at any time with little or no warning,” said Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator, last week as officials from the Treasury and State Departments accused Hezbollah of working with operatives of Iran’s Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards to train and advise Syrian government forces.
The Netherlands declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization in 2004, saying that it did not distinguish between the group’s political and terrorist wings. Britain distinguishes between the parts, listing only the militant wing.
“The British see it as a tool: if you change we take it off the list,” Mr. Ritzmann said. “The French don’t think it’s smart to put them on the terrorist list because they’re such a political actor.”
Mr. Thamm said, “There is no unified common assessment of Hezbollah.” He added, “And that is not something that will change in the foreseeable future.”
Skeptics here in Europe say that as Hezbollah has become more political the group has moved away from its terrorist past, if not forsaken it entirely, and that Israel is stoking fears as it seeks to justify an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some experts say that security officials on the Continent are resistant to blacklisting the group because they seem to see a tacit détente, where Hezbollah does not stage attacks and European law enforcement officials do not interfere with its fund-raising and organizational work.
“There’s a fear of attracting Hezbollah’s ire and eventually inviting Hezbollah operations in their own countries,” said Bruce Hoffman, a professor of security studies at Georgetown and a terrorism expert.
“Why pick up a rock and see what’s under it?” he asked.