LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 09/2012

Bible Quotation for today/The Parable of the Mustard Seed
Luke 13/18-20: " Jesus asked, “What is the Kingdom of God like? What shall I compare it with? It is like this. A man takes a mustard seed and plants it in his field. The plant grows and becomes a tree, and the birds make their nests in its branches.”The Parable of the Yeast Again Jesus asked, “What shall I compare the Kingdom of God with? It is like this. A woman takes some yeast and mixes it with a bushel of flour until the whole batch of dough rises.”

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The Rise of Al Qaeda in Syria/By: Aaron Y. Zelin/Washington Institute/December 08/12

Question: "Should we give gifts at Christmas?"
GotQuestions.org/Answer: Many people take the idea of gift giving at Christmas back to the scripture in Matthew 2:10-11 which talks about the Magi (wise men) giving gifts to Jesus at his home: "When they saw the star, they were overjoyed. On coming to the house, they saw the child with his mother Mary, and they bowed down and worshiped him. Then they opened their treasures and presented him with gifts of gold and of incense and of myrrh."
The Bible gives a wonderful story about the gift God gave us—Jesus Christ—and we can use it as an opportunity to present the gospel and to show love. Giving and receiving gifts can be part of fulfilling what Paul says about giving in 2 Corinthians 8:7-8, "But just as you excel in everything—in faith, in speech, in knowledge, in complete earnestness and in your love for us—see that you also excel in this grace of giving. I am not commanding you, but I want to test the sincerity of your love by comparing it with the earnestness of others." Paul was talking to the churches who were giving him gifts (financial) so that he could keep on in the ministry. We can apply this same lesson to our own lives by giving to others, not just at Christmas, but year round!
So, can gift giving become the focus of Christmas instead of thanking the Lord for the gift of His Son (John 3:16)? Absolutely! Does giving gifts have to take away from the true meaning of Christmas? No, it does not. If we focus on the wonderful gift of salvation the Lord has given us (Isaiah 9:6), giving to others is a natural expression of that gratitude. The key is our focus. Is your focus on the gift, or on the ultimate gift-giver, our gracious Heavenly Father? "Every good and perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of the heavenly lights..." (James 1:17).

Nasrallah Says the Cabinet Will Stay in Power, Strife Should be Deterred
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stressed the necessity to cut the road short on strife before it aggravates among the Muslim community and assured that the cabinet will not collapse, As Safir daily reported on Saturday. “Cutting the road short on strife among Muslims is an utmost priority and obligation,” the newspaper quoted Nasrallah as telling hundreds of academic students on Friday.
Reiterating the role of the state to shoulder responsibility he confirmed that “the government will stay because it is a need for stability.”
The opposition March 14 alliance demand the resignation of the cabinet against the backdrop of the assassination that targeted Internal Security Forces Information Bureau chief Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan in October.
“The seriousness of the stage that Lebanon and the region are passing through call for the need for communication between Lebanese factions,” Nasrallah said.
“There are parties that seek to inflict strife in Lebanon and trigger conflict among Muslims which would only benefit the Israeli enemy. This poses a major joint responsibility for the Lebanese to stop rhetoric that incites sectarianism,” he added. Reiterating the necessity not to be dragged into strife “incited by some,” he said “On our part we will not be dragged into discord no matter what they do.”
On the role of the resistance in confronting the Israeli enemy, Nasrallah stressed its readiness to do so but at the same time he hailed the role of the army, saying “we want the army to be strong in confronting the enemy and deter any danger therein.”The Hizbullah chief declared that the party has always been an advocate-of the state “our project is a unified single state. We are no alternative to the state and we will never be. Our interest has always been in the rise of a strong state capable to assume its duties and responsibilities towards the Lebanese.”

Al-Shaar Hints Threats Not Linked to Dar al-Fatwa Elections
Naharnet/Mufti of Tripoli and the North Sheikh Malek al-Shaar denied on Saturday that he was after a seat in Dar al-Fatwa but stressed willingness to serve Sunnis if there was consensus on him. In remarks to An Nahar daily, al-Shaar, who traveled to Paris following information that he could be the target of an assassination plot, said that he hasn't announced his candidacy to any post in the Dar al-Fatwa elections.
His denial came after the newspaper's correspondent asked him whether he thought the death threat had anything to do with the elections.
But he said if there was consensus on him then he would be ready to serve Sunnis and the nation.
Al-Shaar reiterated that he wasn't been in conflict with anyone over any post.
The Mufti said he traveled to France after security forces informed him during his daughter's wedding in a Beirut hotel that he had to leave the country over death threats.
Interior Minister Marwan Charbel “announced that the threats are real and strong,” al-Shaar said, adding “I thought at first they were aimed at intimidating me because I have never had foes.”
The clergyman urged the Lebanese to have loyalty to their nation and said they should avoid dragging Lebanon to a sectarian strife.
His comments came as scores of people were killed and injured in several days of fighting between the residents of the Tripoli neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen.

Syria Unlikely to Hand over on Saturday Bodies of Lebanese Slain in Tall Kalakh
Naharnet/Syrian authorities are not likely to hand over several bodies of Lebanese men slain in Tall Kalakh to Lebanon's General Security on Saturday after Prime Minister Najib Miqati urged Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim to receive them in a single round. Informed sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper that Syria froze its decision to hand over the bodies in what it had promised to take place in three rounds, starting Saturday.
The freeze came most probably after Miqati tasked General Security chief Ibrahim to negotiate with the Syrian authorities the transfer of all the bodies in a single day.
But Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said the transfer of the bodies could take place anytime soon and possibly on Saturday.
He said at a press conference he held in Tripoli that Ibrahim was in Syria to agree on the appropriate measures to hand over the bodies.
Head of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council Nasri Khoury, who held talks with Prime Minister Najib Miqati at the Grand Serail on Saturday, said however that he had no information on the date the bodies would be returned.
Charbel, whose meeting with the families of the slain men in Tripoli was cancelled on Saturday, said Syria has informed Lebanese authorities that 16 bodies would be handed over.
But media reports had said that 14 Salafists, who mostly hail from Northern Lebanon, were killed last week in an ambush made by Syrian regime forces as they infiltrated the town of Tall Kalakh to fight alongside the Free Syrian Army. One report said that around three men arrested in the deadly ambush will not be handed over to Lebanese authorities and will be tried in Damascus instead.
Several others have reportedly escaped and sought refuge with the rebel FSA.

Interior Minister Marwan Charbel, Tripoli MPs Call for Decisive Measures as Sniper Activity Renews
Naharnet/Interior Minister Marwan Charbel and Tripoli lawmakers said Saturday that the Lebanese government should take “decisive measures” to resolve the situation in the northern city as sniper activity breached the fragile cease fire. During a press conference he held before heading a security meeting, Charbel hoped the meeting would be the start to the implementation of measures that would limit Tripoli's problems and lead to talks between the warring parties after days of gunbattles between the residents of two neighborhoods left scores of casualties.
“It is about time for us to learn and think about the interest of Tripoli,” he said.
“The security situation is reflecting negatively on the economy. Shops are closing and people are emigrating,” he warned.
“We hope that we could control the situation … which is linked in a way or another to the developments around us and mainly the war in Syria,” he told reporters before heading the meeting that was attended by Police chief Joseph al-Duweihi, Governor of the North Nassif Qaloush and several other security officials.
“No one is emerging victorious in the (Tripoli) fighting,” Charbel said after the six-day gunbattles between the mainly Sunni Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood and Jabal Mohsen, whose residents are from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Alawite sect, left at least 12 people dead. The minister said the government should take “decisive measures” at the meeting of the Higher Defense Council scheduled to be held at Baabda Palace on Sunday.
However, sniper activity renewed in the city in Syria street, which separates between the rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. The National News Agency reported that the army is responding to the sources of fire. It said that an energa-type grenade fell on Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood.
Later in the day, a planned meeting between Charbel and Bab al-Tabbaneh officials was canceled over their failure to come out of the neighborhood due to fears of sniper fire.
Also Saturday, lawmakers from Tripoli and the North called on President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Miqati to “seriously” resolve the situation in Tripoli during the planned Higher Defense Council meeting.
In a statement read by al-Mustaqbal bloc MP Samir al-Jisr, the MPs said the political cover should be lifted and security forces should deploy heavily in the city.
The statement added that the government should compensate the losses suffered by the residents of the city.
Tripoli Municipal chief Nader Ghazal also urged the city's residents to participate in a sit-in outside the Serail on Monday to call for stability and the return of Tripoli Mufti Sheikh Malek al-Shaar, who traveled to France after he received information that he could be the target of an assassination plot.
The Lebanese Army said in a communique on Friday that it is continuing to implement measures to restore security in the city.
It said it arrested several people on Thursday on suspicion of opening fire, and confiscated weapons and ammunition from gunmen.
The Army also called on the residents of Tripoli to cooperate with it and “immediately inform it about any armed or suspicious activity.”
The communique added that seven soldiers suffered minor wounds from sniper fire Thursday.

Catholic Patriarchs Call for Formation of New Cabinet to Supervise 2013 Polls
Naharnet /The Council of Catholic Patriarchs and Bishops called on Saturday for the formation of a new government capable of overseeing the upcoming 2013 parliamentary elections.
“Officials should reach consensus over a new electoral law and form a new cabinet that should seek reconciliation (among the Lebanese foes) and oversee the polls,” the council said in its final statement after a three-day closed-door meeting in Bkirki.The council expressed fears over the political rift in the country amid the developments in the region, saying they “have a negative impact on unity.”The closing statement echoed those of Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi after he called last week for the formation of a new government that resolves the country's economic and social problems and holds parliamentary elections on time.Al-Rahi called for “dialogue and national reconciliation” to end the “divisions” among the country's politicians.
The council also urged officials to resume dialogue to kick off national reconciliation aimed at safeguarding the country and improving the economy situation.
The assassination of Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch chief Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan on October 19 deepened the gap between the March 14 opposition and the March 8 alliance.
The opposition boycotted political activity with its foes after it blamed Prime Minister Najib Miqati's government for covering up the crime, calling on it to step down, and said it would not sit at the same dialogue table with Hizbullah.
Saturday's statement of the Catholic patriarchs urged people to spread dialogue in all sectors and be open to others to reach common grounds.
“Peace and reconciliation are our duties,” it pointed out.Concerning the ongoing crisis in the neighboring country Syria, the council called for solidarity with the people in the region in their struggle for justice and their right to determine their fate and reject violence.“We should extend our hand to the Syrian refugees,” the statement noted.Lebanese are deeply divided between partisans and opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad and fear is surging that the violence in Syria could spill over into Lebanon and fracture its fragile peace.
More than 150,000 Syrians have sought refuge in Lebanon, mostly in the northern region of Wadi Khaled, after Assad began using force to crush a popular uprising that erupted in March 2011.

Egypt Violence Subsides as Military Warns of 'Disastrous Results' without Dialogue
Naharnet/Calm was restored to Egypt on Saturday as the powerful military threw its weight behind dialogue to resolve the political crisis dividing the nation, warning it would "not allow" events to take a "disastrous" turn.
A mass overnight protest against President Mohammed Morsi ended peacefully, but the underlying political crisis dividing the country persisted.
More than 100 protesters remained outside the presidential palace in Cairo, watched over by soldiers who used tanks and barbed wire to block roads leading to the compound.
Overnight, more than 10,000 people had massed in the palace square in a noisy demonstration, tearing aside a barbed-wire barricade and yelling for Morsi to step down.
The crowd gradually dwindled to a hard core of protesters, repeating a pattern of nightly protests this week that peaked each evening.
But there was no sign of them faltering in their opposition to the Islamist president and the sweeping new powers he decreed for himself last month, or to a controversial draft constitution Morsi is putting to a referendum he has called for December 15.
Although around 2,000 Morsi supporters from the president's Muslim Brotherhood held a rival rally just a few kilometers (miles) away, there was no repeat of the violent clashes between the two sides of Wednesday night. Then, seven people died and more than 640 were hurt.
Since the clashes, Morsi has struck a defiant tone, defending his decree and the referendum.
But his camp has also made some conciliatory gestures to the mainly secular opposition, seen as attempts to de-escalate the confrontation.
Morsi offered to hold talks with the opposition on Saturday, but that was rebuffed by the National Salvation Front coalition ranged against him.
One of the Front's leaders, Mohamed ElBaradei, a former U.N. atomic agency chief and Nobel Peace laureate, stressed late Friday that dialogue could only happen if Morsi agreed to "repeal the decree" and postpone the referendum.
Vice President Mahmoud Mekki said Morsi "could accept to delay the referendum," but only if the opposition guaranteed it would launch no legal challenge to the decision.
Under Egyptian law, a president is compelled to hold a referendum two weeks after formally being delivered its text.
Mekki said early voting for Egyptians overseas that had been scheduled for Saturday had now been pushed back to Wednesday.
And on Saturday, the Cairo prosecutors' office told AFP that all 133 people arrested during Wednesday's clashes had been released.
"The path of dialogue is the best and only way to reach agreement and achieve the interests of the nation and its citizens," said a statement from the armed forces -- the first since street protests against President Morsi erupted more than two weeks ago.
"The opposite of that will take us into a dark tunnel with disastrous results -- and that is something we will not allow."
The statement said the military would maintain its role safeguarding the nation's security, pointedly not taking sides.
"The military establishment stands always with the great Egyptian people and insists on its unity," it said."We confirm that we support national dialogue and the path of democracy... to bring together all factions in the country."
The military's refusal to become embroiled in political differences in Egypt recalled its hands-off position during the uprising that toppled President Hosni Mubarak early last year.
SourceAgence France Presse

'Iran no longer on track to achieving long-range missile'
By REUTERS 12/08/2012/ US Congress report casts doubt on intelligence views Iran could test-fly intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015; report states Tehran unable to obtain components due to sanctions, lack of help from Russia, China. An internal report for the US Congress has concluded that Iran probably is no longer on track, if it ever was, to having an ocean-crossing missile as soon as 2015.
The study casts doubt on a view long held by US intelligence agencies that Iran could be able to test-fly by 2015 an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, if it receives "sufficient foreign assistance."
"It is increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015," said the report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, which works exclusively for lawmakers.Iran does not appear to be receiving as much help as would likely be necessary, notably from China or Russia, to reach that goal, according to the 66-page report dated Thursday.
It is also increasingly tough for Tehran to obtain certain critical components and materials because of international sanctions related to its disputed nuclear program. In addition, Iran has not demonstrated the kind of flight test program generally deemed necessary to produce an ICBM, said the study by Steven Hildreth, a specialist in missile defense who consulted seven external expert reviewers. The study appears to be the most detailed unclassified look yet at Iran's controversial ballistic missile and space programs. It does not address Tehran's nuclear program, which has prompted international fears that it could lead to atomic weapons at short notice. An effective nuclear-weapons capability requires three things to work together - enough fissile material, a reliable weapons device and an effective delivery system, such as a ballistic missile that can grow out of a space launch program. Iran's efforts to develop, test and field ballistic missiles and build a space launch capability have helped drive billions of dollars of US ballistic missile defense spending, further destabilized the Middle East and contributed to Israel's push for pre-emptive action. Iranian missile threats have also prompted a US drive for an increasingly capable shield for Europe, largely built by contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing Co , Raytheon Co and Northrop Grumman Corp.The US intelligence community since 1999 has stuck to the conditional 2015 date, provided Iran gets enough outside help, for a potential Iranian ICBM capable of reaching the United States, which is at least 10,000 kilometers away.
An ICBM is generally defined as having a range greater than 5,500 km (3,400 miles). Such missiles from Iran could threaten targets throughout Europe and the Middle East. "With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran may be technically capable of flight-testing an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015," the Defense Department told Congress in its 2012 annual report on Iranian military power. Michael Birmingham, a spokesman for the office of the Director of National Intelligence, which leads the 17 organizations which comprise the U.S. intelligence community, said views among spy agencies vary on the Iranian ICBM outlook. He added that the 2015 date cited by the Defense Department was "heavily caveated." Iran appears to have a significant space launch effort, not merely a disguised cover for ICBM development, the Congressional Research Service report said. Iran became the ninth country to demonstrate an indigenous space launch capability on February 2, 2009, when it launched an Omid satellite from a Safir 2 rocket. Iran has stated it plans to use future launchers to put intelligence-gathering satellites in orbit, a capability that is a decade or so in the future. Tom Collina, research director of the private Arms Control Association, a Washington-based advocacy group, said the report suggests the United States could respond in a more "measured" way to a potential Iranian long-range missile threat. "We do not have to deploy missile defenses on the East Coast by 2015, as some in Congress want, nor do we have to rush missile defenses into Europe, which makes Russia nervous," he said.

Security and Defense: Iran strike in the spring?
By YAAKOV LAPPIN 12/06/2012/J. Post/Israel only has partial missile defense; what Operation Pillar of Defense says about the state’s wider strategic picture
The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas offers several hints regarding Jerusalem’s wider strategic situation in the region. For many years, Iran and its proxies on Israel’s borders have worked to create rocket and missile bases, aimed at threatening its soft underbelly: the civilian home front.
The Iranian project saw terror bases developed in southern Lebanon and Gaza, and represents the most serious asymmetrical threat faced by Israel to date.
The Iranian plan is based on the idea of giving Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad the ability to flood the home front with projectile fire, thereby causing casualties, widespread damage and a paralysis of ordinary life. This capability has multiple purposes in the hands of Israel’s enemies.
It allows Gaza terror factions to realize their ideology of eternal jihad, buffered only by tactical cease-fires between rounds of fighting. Even more significantly, it enables enemies of the state to try and deter Israel from striking at the threats that surround it. When Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps oversaw the creation of the rocket bases, they had hoped that the threat they were developing would deter Israel from carrying out targeted assassinations of terrorists in Gaza on the local front, while on the regional front, Israel might be deterred from striking Iranian nuclear sites. Hamas had wrongly assumed that the rise of its fellow Islamists in Egypt would contribute to that deterrence.
As Operation Pillar of Defense proved in November, the attempt to deter Israel from defensive strikes in local arenas failed. An Israeli air strike killed Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari, a development that shocked both Hamas and Iran.
Iran was startled by the blow, despite its ongoing crisis with Hamas (relations between the two have cooled over Hamas’s backing of the Syrian rebels).
One of the major factors that allowed Israel to operate freely last month is, of course, the Iron Dome rocket defense system.
The five Iron Dome batteries deployed in southern and central Israel intercepted 87 percent of projectiles heading toward populated areas, allowing the IDF to stick to its plan of a limited weeklong air campaign to damage Hamas. The plan was centered on the modest goal of reinstating Israeli deterrence, as a necessary condition for ending the daily rocket menace terrorizing the South.
The problem is that this successful model – of an active defense in the service of offensive Israeli capabilities – is in place only for Gaza for the time being, and not against the main Iranian rocket base in our region, which is Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Shi’ite terror organization has amassed over 50,000 rockets in Lebanon, and all of Israel is within range.
In timing that cannot be coincidental, the Defense Ministry held a successful test of the David’s Sling rocket defense system soon after the end of the recent Gaza conflict. David’s Sling, with its ability to intercept medium and long-range rockets and cruise missiles, is the active defense answer to Hezbollah’s threat.
But it will only be operational in 2014. That creates a serious “scheduling problem,” as Israel may find itself having to make a fateful decision on the Iranian nuclear question as early as this spring, if Tehran continues its enrichment of uranium at the current pace.
“The problem is Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal. They have Katyushas, M600s, Scud missiles from Syria, and Fajr 3 and 5 rockets. This is an immediate threat, which we might face in the spring, when there will be a need to decide on Iran,” said Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.
“The Iranians armed Hezbollah with 50,000 rockets for a reason. They are reserving this option. The threat from Hezbollah is more serious. Perhaps they [the IDF] will have to conquer Beirut,” he added.
Air defense systems were never meant to provide a full answer to the threat, but the more efficient they become, the more flexibility the IDF has in planning its air and ground attacks.
It remains unclear whether the IDF is planning on a return to the Lebanese capital, but there can be no doubt that in the absence of an active defense system, a wide-ranging ground offensive involving large numbers of infantry and armored vehicles crossing deep into Lebanon, backed by an aggressive air campaign, will form Israel’s response to the rocket threat from Hezbollah. The faster ground forces get to Hezbollah positions, the sooner rocket attacks on Israel would cease in a future war.
In Gaza itself, there are few signs that the Iranian rocket strategy suffered a blow to its prestige, Karmon argued.
“Iran has already scored points from this confrontation.
The heads of Islamic Jihad and [Hamas Prime Minister] Ismail Haniyeh have said that it was Iranian weapons which allowed them to attack Israel. Islamic Jihad was the first to fire on Tel Aviv.
That’s significant, as this organization is Iran’s auxiliary,” Karmon added.
Musa Abu Marzouk, deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, declared in recent weeks that Hamas would continue to receive shipments of Iranian weapons to refill stocks of long-range Fajr rockets and medium-range Grads.
“I see this as a message from Hamas to Egypt, in which they are demanding freedom to import weapons to Gaza,” Karmon said.
According to various publications, Iran sent out one shipment already and they are determined to send more.
Thus, Hamas managed to join the new Sunni axis while maintaining its access to Iranian weaponry.
In addition to the threats from Lebanon and Gaza, Iran possesses hundreds of ballistic missiles, such as the Shihab 3 (based on a North Korean missile) and the BM25 (purchased from North Korea in 2008), all of which can strike Israeli territory.
Jerusalem has already developed a response to this threat in the form of the Arrow 2 ballistic missile defense system, which intercepts incoming threats in the upper atmosphere, and the Arrow 3 system, which will intercept missiles in space after becoming operational.
“The question is what is the state of the radars within the Arrow system,” said Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, former head of the National Security Council. “Can these systems preempt the Iranian missiles?” Eiland said there was no clear connection between Iron Dome’s performance and a possible strike on Iran in the spring. He also cast doubt on the term “multi-layered missile defense,” often used by Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
“To think that Arrow 2 [and] 3, David’s Sling and Iron Dome give us the chance to shoot down the same missile is wrong,” Eiland said. “Although there is some overlap between them, each system deals with a different threat.”
Nevertheless, Iron Dome is capable of providing a partial answer to some of Hezbollah’s rockets.
Yet, as of now, Israel has no defensive answer in place to deal with Hezbollah projectiles with a range of 200 kilometers, Eiland stated.
“The other side is improving. It has more rockets, larger warheads and the ranges are growing,” he said. “Even in Iron Dome, which provided a good but limited response, we saw that it wasn’t perfect.”
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Shlomo Brom, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, agreed. Although Israel challenged the Iranian rocket program, it is far from neutralizing the threat, he said.
In the November conflict, rockets still managed to strike the home front, and terror organizations began overwhelming Iron Dome with massive volleys toward the end of the escalation, Brom noted.
“I’d bet that the trend will feature a rise, not a drop in rockets. In the future, they’ll try to fire many more rockets than what we’ve seen,” he said.
But Lt.-Col. (res.) Michael Segall, a strategic analyst for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, takes a more optimistic view on the repercussions of the conflict. In an analysis he recently published, Segall viewed the conflict through a wide regional lense, placing it within the context of a growing rift between the Shi’ite and Sunni camps.
He said the Shi’ite camp – made up of Iran, President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria and Hezbollah – is on a collision course with the emerging Sunni camp – composed of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.
The tensions are “evident in the conflict arenas in the Middle East – Syria, the Palestinian arena, Bahrain, Jordan,” Segall said, and stand to greatly influence the landscape of the region.
“Egypt, playing a central role in determining the new regional order, will likely find itself in confrontation with Iran. Turkey is already confronting Iran over regional hegemony and influence, with Syria as a front line,” Segall said.
In this context, Israel’s ability to deflect Iranian rockets, as exhibited last month, helped “put Iran in a problematic position of growing isolation,” he argued.
Segall views Iron Dome’s success as one of a number of blows to Iran’s standing in the region.
Whether the Gaza war damaged or benefited Iran, Tehran’s nuclear clock continues to tick.

Future MP Oqab Saqr denies arms deals, says tapes were doctored
December 07, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub The Daily Star
Saqr slams the “axis of defeat.”
BEIRUT: Future MP Oqab Saqr strongly rejected Thursday accusations that he was involved in sending arms to Syrian rebels, saying that audio recordings allegedly implicating him in the case were doctored.
Saqr also said that on instructions from former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, he was engaged in negotiations with Syrian rebels for the release of Lebanese hostages held in Syria and was also active in sending food, milk and other humanitarian aid to thousands of Syrian refugees displaced by the fighting in Syria. Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul, Saqr described the audio tapes broadcast last week by the OTV station and published by Al-Akhbar newspaper, both of which support the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance, as the “biggest political, media and moral scandal.”
Saqr, a leading member of Hariri’s Future parliamentary bloc, said the tapes belonged to him and were stolen and distorted in a way to implicate him in arms deliveries to Syrian rebels fighting to oust President Bashar Assad.
“Their stupidity, hatred and the deliberate intention to assassinate me – and that I did not have any of the tapes – made them think that [selectively] editing the tape would confirm this accusation fabricated by the axis of deceit,” Saqr told reporters.
“You can take them to any laboratory in the world to verify their authenticity,” he added.
During the conference broadcast by Lebanese TV stations, Saqr played what he said was the full unredacted audio tape between himself and a rebel commander identified as Abu Numan, who is allegedly responsible for the kidnapping of 11 Lebanese pilgrims in the Syrian town of Azaz earlier this year, as the latter asks him for arms in exchange for the release of the men.“We are not asking for much but some iron [in reference to arms] ... We are not asking for money just some arms so we can get rid of Assad,” Abu Numan said. “Mr. Saqr, my concern is the issue of iron [arms]. You give me iron, I’ll hand you over your people [Lebanese hostages] safe,” he added.
In response, Saqr was heard to say in the tape: “I don’t have arms or iron or anything ... I can speak to members of the Free Syrian Army to transfer some arms.”
“As far as weapons are concerned, I cannot do anything ... I can’t provide you with any weapons,” Saqr added.
The Zahle MP, who has been living out of Lebanon for more than a year and a half, said Abu Numan contacted him in connection with the kidnapping of Lebanese Shiite pilgrims in Syria in May. “The kidnappings have affected the revolution and Lebanese-Syrian relations. Therefore, we want a humane and ethical solution,” Saqr could be heard saying in recordings he played at the news conference.
Saqr said the public mistakenly thought Hariri wanted a military “solution,” instead of a solution to the hostage crisis. “Is it logical to demand a decisive military solution from a media spokesman?” he asked.
Eleven Shiite pilgrims were kidnapped near Aleppo’s northern Syrian border town of Azaz on May 22 while returning from a pilgrimage in Iran. Two of them have been released so far.
Saqr also said negotiations to secure the release of the remaining nine Lebanese hostages held in Syria were on hold for the moment.
The release of the recordings stirred a political storm in Lebanon, which is sharply split over the 20-month bloody conflict in Syria. Some March 8 MPs called for Saqr to be prosecuted over his alleged involvement in the Syrian conflict in violation of the government’s declared policy to distance Lebanon from the turmoil next door.
In the conference, Saqr described “those who edited the tapes,” as naïve and stupid for selectively broadcasting sections in which the MP speaks about weapons.
He said that he would provide the media with all of the tapes, which were recorded seven months ago and are part of some 500 minutes of conversation.
Saqr played another audio excerpt that he said had been taken out of context.” We want to increase the quantities,” he could be heard saying. Saqr said he had been referring to humanitarian aid, not weapons.
“Yes, we are supplying Syria with milk to the children. This is a dangerous terrorist weapon because Bashar Assad is feeding Syria’s children blood, while the axis of deceit and its allies in Lebanon want to feed Syria’s children blood,” Saqr told the news conference.
“I sent blankets and tents, and participated in constructing buildings in Homs at the instigation and with the funding of Saad Hariri, this criminal who wanted to shelter Syria’s children and women,” he added sarcastically.
Later Thursday, Hariri telephoned Saqr and congratulated him on his remarks at the news conference. He vowed to continue his support for the Syrian uprising until its victory against the Assad regime.
“Hariri stressed that support for the Syrian people will continue until the victory of this revolution, and that this support is an ethical, national and Arab responsibility, which will not be given up by any honest Lebanese,” a statement released by Hariri’s media office said.
Hariri is living outside of Lebanon for security reasons. Saqr claimed that three groups had come to Turkey to assassinate him but failed.
“Hariri and I cannot be killed by some fabricated audiotapes. You need something bigger like the bomb that killed [Brig. Gen. Wissam] al-Hasan,” he said. Hasan, who headed the police’s Intelligence Branch, was assassinated on Oct. 19 by a car bomb that ripped through in Ashrafieh and prompted the opposition to demand the resignation of the government. Hariri and the March 14 coalition have blamed Assad for Hasan’s killing.
Saqr slammed his rivals in the March 8 alliance, dubbing them as “the axis of fraud.” “All of the Syrian regime and their puppets and some March 8 groups should be called the groups of fraud and the axis of deceit,” he said.
Saqr also claimed that Hezbollah security official Wafiq Safa had informed security agencies in Lebanon of the tapes and intended to deliver a warning to the lawmaker. “My response is that I don’t have anything to be ashamed of,” he said. Saqr said he was proud of his ties with the Syrian uprising. “I think the revolution in Syria will triumph,” he added. Saqr said he will provide Lebanon’s public prosecutor, Hatem Madi, with his own version of the tapes and will file lawsuit against “anyone who is involved with this forgery.” Madi has tasked the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau with examining the audio recordings implicating Saqr.

Families of hostages split over mediation efforts

December 08, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Families of the Lebanese Shiite pilgrims kidnapped in Syria have split into two groups, differing over who is to blame for the ongoing hostage situation. Hayat Awali, the spokesperson for the families of hostages Abbas Shoaib and Ali Termos, blames former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his aide, Zahle MP Oqab Saqr, for the delay in the pilgrims’ release. Awali and the two families she represents believe government officials are doing what they can to free the hostages, but say their captors are putting obstacles in the way of a deal to free them. “We still blame Oqab Saqr and Saad Hariri for standing behind the captors of the Lebanese pilgrims in Syria,” Awali said. But relatives of Awad Ibrahim, one of the pilgrims who was released in September, believe Saqr and Hariri are actually helping in mediation efforts to bring the hostages back home. They are being held in Aleppo’s Azaz district. The divide occurred after most of the families of the remaining hostages visited the grave of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Downtown Beirut and a gathering of March 14 youth groups at Riad al-Solh last month, and the relatives of Shoaib and Termos did not attend. Family members of the group that supports Saqr’s mediation efforts briefly blocked the street in front of the Interior Ministry on Friday to put pressure on the government. “We are willing to destroy Lebanon for the sake of getting our sons back,” one protester shouted outside the Interior Ministry. “No one has asked about us – neither [Speaker Nabih] Berri nor Hezbollah,” another demonstrator complained. Shortly after the demonstration, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel met with the families. “There are some difficulties impeding the release of the kidnapped. I told this to the families but we are trying to resolve the case,” he said.
During the rally, the protesters called on Saqr to re-establish talks with the families of the hostages in order to facilitate the men’s release. Awali, who represents the families that stayed away from the ministry, said there was no need to pressure the government since Charbel and General Security head Brig. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim are doing all they can to end the six-month saga. “Ibrahim and Charbel are working hard to bring the pilgrims home, so why have a demonstration in front of the Interior Ministry?” Awali asked. Adham Zogheib, the son of hostage Ali Zogheib, was part of the ministry protest, and blamed various parties for trying to politicize the issue.
“There are parties who want to exploit the kidnapped pilgrims’ case. We don’t want to be part of the political disputes in Lebanon, all we want is our relatives to come back as soon as possible,” Zogheib told The Daily Star.
Zogheib added that this week’s media commotion over Saqr has hindered the release of one of the pilgrims. “One of the pilgrims was about to be released last Thursday, and surprisingly they published audio recordings of Saqr the same day.” A local television station published audio recordings this week implicating Saqr in providing weapons to Syria’s armed opposition. Saqr later responded that his remarks were taken out of context.

US Navy admiral visits Lebanon
December 07, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A U.S. Navy commander held talks Thursday with Lebanese Naval Commander Col. Joseph Ghadban over bilateral military cooperation, a statement by the U.S. Embassy said. During his one-day visit to the country, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command Deputy Commander Rear Adm. Kevin D. Scott emphasized the strong and sustained naval cooperation between the two countries, the statement said. Scott renewed the commitment of the United States to a stable, sovereign and independent Lebanon, the statement added. Scott also participated in the commissioning ceremony for the Trablous, a $29.8 million, 42-meter coastal security craft manufactured in the United States.

Iranian ambassador to Lebanon calls on Lebanese to unite
December 7, 2012 /Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Roken Abadi called on all the Lebanese people to unite and preserve civil peace, the National News Agency reported. “All the Lebanese people, regardless of their political affiliations, should unite and preserve civil peace at this critical phase,” Abadi said during a meeting with command body in an Al-Nasirin al-Moustaqillin al-Mourabitoun Movement delegation. The Iranian ambassador also voiced his country’s “keenness on providing Lebanon with its full political and technical support.”Parliamentary work in Lebanon has been disrupted since the opposition March 14 coalition announced that it would cut all ties with the current government, including meetings held by parliamentary committees to discuss proposals transferred by the cabinet. -NOW Lebanon

Lebanon's Tripoli begins to look like Syria
TRIPOLI, Lebanon (Reuters) - The red, green and black flags adopted by Syrian rebels flutter in the December wind and rain as the sound of a mortar bomb explosion echoes off bullet-marked apartment blocks.
But this is not Syria. It's the coastal city of Tripoli in the civil-war-ravaged country's little neighbor: Lebanon. Two men were killed in the early hours of Friday morning and dozens more wounded in what residents and security sources say were the heaviest clashes this year between Lebanese gunmen loyal to opposing sides in Syria's war. Tripoli is a majority Sunni Muslim city and mostly supports the Sunni-led uprising in Syria. But it also has an Alawite minority - the same sect as President Bashar al-Assad - and street fights between Sunnis and Alawites are common every time Lebanon gets dragged further into the crisis next door.
The spark this time was the killing last week of at least 14 Sunni Muslim Lebanese and Palestinian gunmen from north Lebanon by Syrian government forces in a Syrian border town. The gunmen appeared to have joined insurgents waging a 20-month-old revolt against Assad, and residents in Tripoli say several came from Tripoli's Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbaneh. Syrian state television has shown graphic footage of the dead Lebanese men, riddled with gunshot wounds. "Someone had to pay for the blood," said a Tripoli security source on condition of anonymity. "The Sunni gunmen attacked some Alawites in the market and then snipers positioned themselves," he added. That was on Tuesday. By Friday, 12 people had died in Tripoli and more than 100 had been wounded by rocket-propelled grenades, heavy machine guns and mortar bombs.
"There is fighting on more streets than ever before," said a resident who asked not to be named.
The entire area was blocked off by the army and fighters from both sides who have previously spoken to Reuters were not answering their phones on Friday.
The army has been instructed to return fire in an attempt to halt the spiraling violence. But residents say it is no use and several soldiers have been wounded.
"We have the army here but it's only symbolic," said Abu Ammar, a Sunni resident of Bab al-Tabbaneh who spoke to Reuters on a roundabout near his home which was out of the range of the guns but within earshot of the clashes. "The best thing would be for the army to retreat. Let the two sides finish it themselves," said the middle-aged man, sheltering from the rain under a shop awning and watching tanks sitting on the roundabout.
Gunmen have fought intermittently in Tripoli since the late 1980s - during Lebanon's own 15-year civil war - over various political and territorial issues and Syria's conflict could be the latest excuse rather than the reason for the violence.
"AS BAD AS HOMS"
Abu Yazen, a Syrian from the central city of Homs, fought Syrian troops alongside rebels but fled two weeks ago to Tripoli where he hoped the Sunni majority would provide some protection for his family.
"There are a lot of Syrians here and we are wondering why they are fighting," the 26-year-old said. "The sounds of explosions last night were at least as bad as in Homs," he said. Parts of Homs have been leveled during months of government bombardment - a scale of destruction far greater than Tripoli has seen.
Abu Yazen, who has a Sunni-style beard, says he fought alongside Sunni Lebanese in Homs against Assad's forces but that sectarian fighting in Tripoli was nonsensical. "I don't want it to escalate here."
Lebanese politicians are paralyzed by sectarian divides in Lebanon that make a political solution to the recurring violence unlikely. Shi'ite political and guerrilla movement Hezbollah and its allies support Assad and the country's Sunni-led opposition bloc, March 14, backs the revolt. Politicians in the small Mediterranean state have agreed only to distance themselves from the turmoil in its neighbor. But as rebels in Syria move to encircle Damascus and Lebanese fighters move into Syria, it is getting harder to stay neutral. Syrian rebels say they have also fought against Syrian troops who are backed up by Hezbollah guerrillas. Syria's deputy foreign minister said on Thursday Lebanon should do more to stop fighters joining rebels in his country. "When the situation is linked to the killing of Syrians, it is no longer possible to maintain the position of neutrality," Faisal Maqdad said in an interview with Hezbollah's al-Manar TV.
BODIES TO BE RETURNED?

Assad's opponents blame Syria, whose troops were garrisoned in Lebanon until 2005, for the unresolved October killing of Lebanese security official Wissam al-Hassan. Hassan had led an investigation that implicated Damascus and Hezbollah in the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, a Sunni.
Posters of Hassan's face photoshopped onto a Lebanese flag line the streets of Tripoli, with text calling him a hero and the protector of the country. Clashes between gunmen from Bab al-Tabbaneh and Alawites in neighboring Jabal Mohsen erupted in the days after Hassan's assassination, too. On Friday, Tripoli's streets were sprawling with soldiers in armored vehicles even though most of the city's residents were continuing to go about their lives.
After all-night fighting in the pouring rain, most gunmen were resting, residents said. They won't be resting for long. Protesters have demanded that the bodies of the slain Lebanese militants in Syria be returned and security sources say that on Saturday the funerals will likely be held, which could lead to more fighting.(Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Report: French military advisers meet with rebels inside Syria
Le Figaro newspaper reports that French agents held face-to-face talks with a Free Syrian Army leader; UN's Ban: No confirmation Assad planning to use chemical weapons, but this would be 'outrageous crime.'
By DPA and Reuters | Dec.07, 2012/French military advisers have met Syrian rebels inside the war-torn country in recent weeks in effort to identify recipients for possible weapons supplies, Le Figaro newspaper reported Friday. The French agents had held face-to-face talks with a Free Syrian Army leader "in the area between Damascus and Lebanon," the paper quoted an unnamed leader of the Syrian opposition as saying.
The source was also quoted as saying that U.S. and British agents had also held meetings on Syrian soil with rebels fighting President Bashar Assad's regime. "The French experts want to know who is doing what," the opposition leader told the newspaper. They also wanted to determine the "operational capacity of each group" and their "political colors." The newspaper said an unnamed French military source had confirmed the meetings involving French agents. France was the first Western country to formally recognize Syria's new opposition coalition. France has also suggested that Europe should allow the supply of "defensive weapons" to the rebels, once the fighters had been "properly identified." Other Western countries have taken a more cautious approach to the rebels, fearing that Islamists are sidelining nationalists within the irregular forces. Assad using chemical weapons would be 'outrageous crime' UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Friday he was not aware of any confirmed reports that Assad was preparing to use chemical weapons but that if he did so it would be an "outrageous crime" with "huge consequences." U.S. officials said on Monday that the White House and its allies are weighing military options to secure Syria's chemical and biological weapons, after U.S. intelligence reports showed the Syrian regime may be readying those weapons and may be desperate enough to use them. "Recently we have been receiving alarming news that the Syrian government may be preparing to use chemical weapons. We have no confirmed reports on this matter," Ban said after visiting a Syrian refugee camp in Turkey.
"However, if it is the case, then it will be an outrageous crime in the name of humanity."

Syria's Assad May Be Considering Using Chemical Weapons, Panetta Says
ABC/ DUBLIN, Ireland Dec. 6, 2012
The Obama administration fears that the beleaguered Syrian regime may unleash chemical weapons on rebels who are pressing their campaign closer to the capital of Damascus.
"I think there is no question that we remain very concerned, very concerned that as the opposition advances, in particular on Damascus, that the regime might very well consider the use of chemical weapons," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said today. "The intelligence that we have causes serious concerns that this is being considered," he said.
The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has moved to prepare some of its chemical weapons for use. U.S. officials reacted with alarm this weekend after U.S. intelligence uncovered Syrians moving components of sarin gas into bombs on or near Syrian airfields, a senior U.S. official said Wednesday. Two U.S. officials said Wednesday it was still very unclear what the intent was behind the activity that caught their attention. There is nothing that suggests Assad ordered the chemicals be moved. The heightened concern comes as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton imet today with U.N. Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss the options to end the conflict in Syria. The idea behind the meeting in Dublin is that the three parties might be able to revive the political transition plan on Syria put forward in Geneva in July.
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Before the meeting began Clinton said, "Events on the ground in Syria are accelerating, and we see that in many different ways. The pressure against the regime in and around Damascus seems to be increasing. We've made it very clear what our position is with respect to chemical weapons."
The Obama administration has said the use of chemical weapons would be a "red line."
The meeting last for 40 minutes and a senior State Department official said, "It was a constructive discussion focused on how to support a political transition in practical terms. The U.S. and Russia committed to support Special Envoy Brahimi's efforts in that regard. The next step will be a meeting in the next few days between Special Envoy Brahimi and senior officials from the United States and Russia to discuss the specifics of taking this work forward." That plan by the so-called Action Group for Syria called for an immediate cessation of violence, the withdrawal of Syrian troops to their bases, access for humanitarian agencies and the establishment of a transitional governing body with officials from across the political spectrum.
It did not call on Assad to step down, which Russia has long rejected, and the plan never really went anywhere. Its main proponent was former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan who later resigned as special envoy to Syria and Brahimi was appointed to the post. As the conflict reaches almost two years, there is speculation that Russia's stance may be softening. Russia is Syria's closest ally outside the Middle East and a shift in its support for Assad would likely spell the end of his rule. Syria's current Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told Sky NewsWednesday that international intervention in Syria would be "dangerous for the whole region" and that it is "funny" to think that Syria could threaten a NATO country. "In no way we can threaten a NATO country and these are just provocations and further support for the terrorist groups that are supported by the Turkish government and by many European countries," Mekdad said. Mekdad also told Sky News that Assad will "never, ever" leave Syria and said "even if" Syria has chemical weapons it would not use them against its own people.
"We are saying if we have them we shall not use them against our people," Mekdad said.

Syria's endgame in sight as rebels advance
By Ashley Fantz and Joe Sterling, CNN
(CNN) -- Hell came to Damascus months ago. It's loud and scary in Syria's capital. But now, this week, something seems different.
It feels worse. And that makes Leena feel better.
The Damascus resident, who sides with the rebellion, says it means the forces fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad are winning.
"The rebels are winning, can you see?" she insisted during a Skype call Wednesday. "The regime feels threatened. They are scared. You can feel it here. It's so tense."
Leena, a former teacher in her 30s, told CNN that she's hearing more helicopters hovering over her home this week. Traffic near the presidential palace is more hectic. Checkpoints are more intense. Blink, she said, and the price of gas goes higher.
U.S. spearheads diplomatic push on Syria
Report: Syria readying chemical weapons
Mortar strikes school in refugee camp
Syrian family lives underground Rebels celebrate next to the remains of a Syrian government fighter jet, which was shot down at Daret Ezza on the border of the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo on Wednesday, November 28. Look back at photos from the conflict in October. Syrian men inspect the scene of a car bomb explosion on Wednesday in Jaramana, a small town near Damascus that has provided a refuge for pro-government Syrians displaced in the civil war. Twin car bombs near the capital killed dozens, state media reported. Syrian men walk around a pool of blood at the site of a car bomb explosion in Jaramana on Wednesday. Syrian rebels celebrate on top of the remains of a Syrian government fighter jet that was shot down at Daret Ezza, on the border between the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, on Wednesday. The scars of war -- damage is readily visible at a government-controlled building in al-Layramun district of Aleppo on Monday, November 26. A man stands next to a crater in the village of Atme after a Syrian warplane launched an attack against a rebel command center near the border with Turkey on Monday. A Syrian man cooks a meal at a refugee camp in Qah, near the northwestern city of Idlib on Saturday, November 24. Syrian boys from Ras al-Ain attempt to cross back into Syria at the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar on Saturday. Syrian rebels and bystanders watch as a bulldozer removes debris from outside the Dar Al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo on Thursday, November 22. Rescue workers cover a corpse under the debris outside Dar Al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo on Thursday. A Syrian boy cleans debris from outside Dar Al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo on Thursday. Syrian refugees fleeing their homes in the northern Syrian town of Ras al-Ain walk to cross the border fence into Turkey, as seen from the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar, on Wednesday, November 21. Syrian rebel fighters drive through the gate of Syrian Government Army Base 46 after its capture, near Aleppo on Wednesday. Defected Gen. Mohammed Ahmed al-Faj, who commanded the assault, hailed the capture of the base as "one of our biggest victories since the start of the revolution" against President Bashar al-Assad. Smoke and fire rise from the Roman citadel of Kalat al-Numan after it was bombed by a Syrian government jet on Tuesday, November 20, in Maaret al-Numan, Syria. The Roman-era town of 150,000 is now virtually deserted due to the heavy shelling and aerial bombardments. Syrians ride on a horse-drawn cart in the streets of the Tarik al-Bab neighborhood in Aleppo on Sunday, November 18. Syrian rebels stand guard outside a church in the town of Ras al-Ain near the border with Turkey on Friday, November 16. A picture shows a heavily damaged house after airstrikes by Syrian regime forces in Ras al-Ain on Friday. A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, November 15. A Turkish soldier in a foxhole in Ceylanpinar, Turkey, watches Syrian opposition fighters praying in the strategic Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain on Wednesday, November 14. A Syrian rebel commander of the Halab al-Shabah battalion motivates fighters during clashes with regime forces in Al-Amariya district of Aleppo on Tuesday, November 13. Smoke billows from burning tires as a Syrian rebel fires toward regime forces in Aleppo on Tuesday. Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo on Tuesday. Smoke rises after Syrian aircraft bombed the strategic border town of Ras al-Ain, killing at least four people, wounding many others and sending panicked residents fleeing across to Turkey on Monday, November 12. Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his gun in Aleppo on Sunday, November 11. Syrian opposition fighters pass a civilian as they patrol the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday. A Syrian opposition fighter walks in a destroyed house after hard clashes with Syrian regime forces in Ras al Ain on Saturday, November 10. Syrian nationals cross the border between the Syrian town of Ras al Ain and Ceylanpinar, Turkey, on Saturday. Syrian army soldiers ride along a street Saturday in the northern province of Aleppo. A Syrian opposition fighter stands in a destroyed house in Ras al Ain on Saturday. Syrians cross the border into Turkey on Friday, November 9, near the Turkish town of Ceylanpinar. Smoke rises after an explosion in the Syrian village of Bariqa near the the cease-fire line in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Wednesday, November 7. Israel is asking the U.N. Security Council to address an intrusion by Syrian tanks into the buffer zone between Syria and Israel in the Golan Heights, which Israel says violates the two countries' Separation of Forces agreement. A picture released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows damage caused by a mortar attack in a residential district of Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday. A damaged vehicle and building are damaged after bomb explosions in in Damascus on Wednesday in this photo released by Syria's national news agency, SANA. Multiple bomb explosions on Wednesday hit a hilltop district in Damascus populated by members of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect, witnesses said. An Israeli Merkava tank crew sits in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights overlooking the Syrian village of Breqa on Tuesday, November 6. An Israeli military vehicle in the Golan Heights was hit by gunfire from Syria on Monday, the Israeli army said. A mortar shell explodes in the Syrian village of Breqa on Tuesday. Syrian rescue workers evacuate a woman and her two children from a building targeted by an airstrike from government forces in a town northeast of Aleppo on Sunday, November 4. An AFP correspondent reported three air strikes on the town in close succession. Syrian people take cover as a second bomb explodes during a rescue attempt in nearby a building that was hit during an air raid by government forces earlier on Sunday. A Syrian rebel fighter rests on a couch in a rebel-controlled building on the front line in Aleppo's northern Izaa quarter on Sunday. A mannequin used by rebel fighters as a decoy is seen in an area where clashes continue with pro-government forces in Aleppo on Friday, November 2. A member of the Free Syrian Army runs for cover from sniper fire in Aleppo on Friday. Members of the Free Syrian Army stand close to an unexploded bomb dropped by a fighter jet weeks earlier, at a checkpoint in Aleppo on Thursday, November 1. Buildings lie destoryed by what activists say were missiles fired by a Syrian Air Force fighter jet loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in Erbeen, near Damascus on Thursday. See photographs from October. But the chaos, the uncertainty and booms of shells landing that keep her awake at night, now fill her with hope.
Damascus is the seat of al-Assad's power. Rebel forces seem to be fighting harder than ever in the capital and, according to analysts and on-the-ground observers like Leena, al-Assad is acting like a boxer who fears his own knock-out is coming.
"The worse it gets now, the more we know the rebels will win," she said. "We welcome this fight. It means we will wake up from this nightmare."
In the past several weeks, the rebels -- once disorganized, dysfunctional and poorly armed -- have made major strategic and psychological gains.
They have seized control of key oil fields and territory in important areas of the north. They have audaciously fired on the Damascus airport and downed several military aircraft.
Syrian rebels challenge al-Assad's command of the skies
Rebels pounced on a key Air Force headquarters outside the northern city of Aleppo, seizing a large cache of weapons, and leaving the regime so desperate it bombed its own bases to prevent the rebels from getting any more.
It was another blow to Syria's army, which experts say is spent, stretched thin by desertions and defections.
Syrian rebels in Damascus say they are more organized, better armed with heavy weaponry, and ready to "cleanse Syria" of government forces, Free Syrian Army spokesman Abu Qutada told CNN.
He said the rebels have "started the ending battle" of the war.
"We are conducting significant military operation inside the capital Damascus, this is a new stage," Abu Qutada said Wednesday via Skype from the Damascus suburbs. "This is the decisive stage of our fight."
Syria's Internet blackout And, international support for the rebels' cause appears to be increasing. NATO recently approved sending Patriot missiles to Turkey, which supports the rebels. France and other pivotal European countries have said they also back the movement against al-Assad.
Those opposed to al-Assad -- including the United States -- have said for months that the Syrian leader's days are numbered. Now, there are signs of desperation:
Al-Assad is reportedly considering his asylum options, despite insisting that he will "live and die in Syria." He is also reportedly considering using chemical weapons on his own people.
And the Syrian government has been blamed for temporarily shutting down Internet service in the country last week, an alleged attempt to thwart rebel communication.
So, with key rebel advances in the north and signs of desperation in Damascus, many observers believe the end is in sight for Syria's 21-month-old brutal civil war.
The regime is clinging to the capital, Damascus, as rebels chip away at the military, according to regional analysts. And the rebels don't have the clout to go toe-to-toe with the government in the center of Damascus, according to senior analyst Joseph Holliday.
"It (the Syrian rebellion) will not be able to overthrow the Assad regime for the foreseeable future," wrote Holliday of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
But, he said, that doesn't mean a certain victory for al-Assad' forces.
"The regime does not have the forces required to hold all of Syria, and its control is steadily eroding across the country."
Attack not best way to stop Syria's chemical weapons
'We thought it would be over fast'
If this is a crossroads in the war, the road leading to it has been long and hard.
Syria's chemical weapons 'deadly serious' Syria's conflict began in March 2011, when protesters like Leena took to the streets to peacefully call for more freedom. They were inspired by Arab Spring demonstrations that toppled dictators in Egypt and Tunisia.
"I have to tell you, we thought it would be over fast," Leena said. "I never thought it would come this far. None of us expected to lose this many friends."
She pauses, her voice breaking.
"We ... knew the regime was strong, but not that ... fierce. I guess we did not expect how terrible it would be."
The most heinous acts man is capable of inflicting on others have happened in Syria.
Journalists, Syrians and human rights workers say the military has gone house to house and shot dead entire families.
Shelling kills 10 children on a playground
Children, they say, have been abducted, tortured and killed and dumped on their parents' front door. There are allegations of underground torture facilities across the country.
The Syrian government denies it is targeting its own people, saying it has gone after "terrorists" that are seeking to overthrow the government.
While it's tough to pin down estimates of regime forces and rebel fighters, most analysts agree that the Syrian government still retains vast superiority in firepower over the rebel fighters.
Yet there's a "turning process" going on in Syria, according to analyst Jeffrey White, who recently visited the region. "Morale, combat spirit (within regime forces) seems to be degrading," said White, a defense fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The rebels are getting stronger, they keep forming units, they keep getting defectors, they keep getting personnel."
The rebel movement has grown bottom-up, a fighting force replete with Syrian army defectors, Syrian citizens, and Islamists -- from inside and outside the country. Regional commands are emerging, and units are working together. The government has ceded huge swaths of territory in the north, and hasn't been able to oust rebels from the most populous city of Aleppo, which is almost fully under rebel control.
As fighting subsides, Aleppo residents find little left "The opposition pretty much owns Syria," said Michael Weiss, research director at the UK-based Henry Jackson Society. "The regime hardcore -- they are in the red in the ledger now, not in the black."
The rebels have now emerged as a "quasi-professional army." He said their advances have made make it "much easier to impose a no-fly zone in the north of Syria" -- if that happens.
Yet, the Syrian military hopes to gain advantage with its superior firepower by locking down key urban centers, such as Damascus and Homs.
But Weiss notes that the government hasn't had a major military victory in the north of Syria for months, and the rebels have effectively encircled Damascus.
It also hasn't embarked on major ground offensives, like the one in Aleppo earlier this year. Such activity puts the army at risk of more defections and desertions.
Syria's Assad regime has fight left despite rebels' advances
Frustration, optimism
As analysts study every move by the rebels and government forces to determine Syria's endgame, the people living there -- some filled with hope, others mired in frustration -- want to know when it will end.
Echoing a common sentiment among many Syrians, a Syrian blogger in Homs, who calls himself "Big Al," says recent attempts by the international community are all too little, too late.
"Syrians are doing things on their own and no one will help them," he told CNN. "The world watched and is still watching Syrians get slaughtered and did nothing and will continue to do nothing, so empty threats mean nothing to us," he said. He dismissed recent reports that NATO had approved deploying Patriot missiles near the Turkey-Syrian border as an "empty threat." He also rejected the recent outcry over the threat of chemical weapons against Syrians, saying, "the only reason they're saying these threats is to pretend that they might actually do something and they won't."
"They only don't want chemical weapons to be used against Israel but I know, and everyone here knows, that if they were used against Syrians, nothing will happen and no threats will come true."
In Damascus, Leena remains optimistic about an impending rebel victory -- but she admits that the nearly two-year-long road to revolution has changed her and others risking their lives for a new Syria.
Back then, they were idealists, beginner revolutionaries. "You want your freedom, democracy, better healthcare, work, education," she said. "We wanted dignity."
She loved her life before, but she is going to love it even more when the rebels win. Because they will win, she insists. Soon. "Haven't we shown that?" she asked. "Doesn't the world understand that by now?"

Ambassador Robert Ford: Hey, Syria’s a mess
Posted by Jennifer Rubin on December 7, 2012 at 8:45 am
Ambassador Robert Ford, who has served in Syria bravely in the face of physical danger, spoke in Washington, D.C., at a conference held by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. It is somewhat jarring when someone who has been at the center of our Syria policy (or lack thereof) calmly recounts the suffering that has transpired while the United States has remained largely on the sidelines. He told the attendees that “there is an al-Qaida in Iraq affiliate operating now in Syria more and more, the Jabhat al-Nusra, and there are groups that are cooperating with it. And that really is a problem. . . .. And so extremist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra are a problem, an obstacle to finding the political solution that Syria’s going to need.” Yes, when bloody civil wars drag on, extremists do rush in.
Narciso Contreras/AP – From October, destroyed buildings in Aleppo after weeks of battles.
He continued with the catalogue of catastrophes: “We estimate now that there are about 1 ½ million displaced people – Syrians displaced from their homes still inside Syria. One and a half million out of a population of 23 million – it’s a huge number. And in addition, there are roughly 470,000 Syrians who’ve had to flee their homes and leave Syria. And they are now principally in the neighboring states of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, although there are Syrians who’ve gone as far away as Libya to see refuge.” Oddly, he didn’t mention the 38,000 dead Syrians. It is, however, a metastasizing crisis. (“But it also causes instability. And you have seen the little skirmishes, for example, on the Syrian-Turkish border.”) When it came to what we are doing about it, one could almost feel a measure of empathy for the foreign service veteran. In short, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is talking to the Russians and the Arab League and we say Bashar al-Assad must go and dare not use chemical weapons. Umm, that’s it? Just about. Ford contends that we have encouraged (from afar, I suppose) the “Syrian Opposition Coalition.” What we have not done is do much to assist them either by supplying weapons or erecting a no-fly zone. But rest assured: “I can tell you that the regime is losing, that its days are numbered, that it’s increasingly visible to everyone and that this transition needs to go forward and that the Syrian opposition’s steps to unify its ranks.”
One could feel mortified when he described that Russia has played a “pernicious role” in Syria, for example by supplying the helicopters to enable “towns [to be] bombed. The Dar al-Shifa Hospital in Aleppo being one of the worst examples of this – a hospital that was bombed up in Aleppo, but by no means the only hospital; many hospitals have been attacked.” The United States dutifully goes to the Security Council not once but three times to be slapped down by Russia. Is no one in the administration humiliated by this performance? (And surely someone must have known the outcome on the second and third trip, making you question why we invited two more kicks in the rear from the Russians after our initial foray.) What a pathetic policy we have undertaken that consists largely, if not entirely, of rhetoric backed up by little concrete action. Ford could not bring himself to give the body count, but our lack of decisive action has had a price – in tens of thousands of dead Syrians, in Syrians who surely must be convinced we are worthless friends, and in an ever-more emboldened Iranian regime, which sees how feckless we are.

Clinton says a free Syria can never include Assad
By Anne Gearan, Dec 07, 2012/The Washington Post Friday, December 7,/12
BELFAST — A free Syria can never include the leader now fighting to hang on to his three-decade regime, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday, underscoring the American goal for new U.S.-Russian cooperation on Syria. Clinton called talks she held Thursday with the Russian foreign minister constructive but very preliminary. The two diplomats agreed to support efforts by the United Nations-Arab League envoy for Syria, a decision Clinton said was influenced by rapid escalation of the 20-month civil war. I don’t think anyone believes that there was some great breakthrough,” Clinton said. “No one should have any illusions about how hard this remains.”Anyone with any influence on the regime or the rebels is duty-bound to try to intervene for a “political transition,” in Syria, Clinton said. The transition phrase is a euphemism the United States has employed to make the goal of ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad easier for his Russian backers to swallow. But Clinton followed it with a flat statement that Assad cannot hope to survive any reordering of the Syrian government that the new cooperation might foster. The United States wants freedom and protections for all Syrians and will hold all parties to account, Clinton said. “A future of this kind cannot possibly include Assad,” Clinton said.
She spoke in Northern Ireland, whose struggle to overcome decades of political violence she often invokes when talking of newer conflicts. In that region, a political row over how many days the Union flag flies over a government building has set off new demonstrations and more dangerous reminders of the bombing campaigns of the recent past. Hours before Clinton came to Belfast, police found two bombs in the region.
A Belfast parliamentarian, Naomi Long, received death threats this week but came to a speech Clinton gave Friday that focused on peace efforts. “The only path forward is a peaceful democratic one that recognizes the right of others to express their opinions but not to resort to violence,” Clinton said following meetings at the parliament, Stormont Castle. “There can be no place in the new Northern Ireland for any violence. Any remnants of the past need to be quickly and unequivocally condemned.”

The Rise of Al Qaeda in Syria
Aaron Y. Zelin/Washington Institute
Foreign Policy
December 6, 2012
The White House wants to marginalize radicals in the anti-Assad insurgency, but does it have any leverage left with the rebels?
President Barack Obama's administration is reportedly planning to designate the Syrian jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra ("the Support Front") as a terrorist organization. The group, which was first announced in late January 2012, has become a growing part of the armed opposition due to its fighting prowess -- perhaps no surprise, as many of its fighters honed their skills in battlefields in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen. As a result, Jabhat al-Nusra has carved out an important niche in the fight to oust the Syrian regime even as it remains outside of the mainstream opposition. The U.S. administration, in designating Jabhat al-Nusra, is likely to argue that the group is an outgrowth of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). While there is not much open-source evidence of this, classified material may offer proof -- and there is certainly circumstantial evidence that Jabhat al-Nusra operates as a branch of the ISI. There's no denying that Jabhat al-Nusra is deadly: It has claimed responsibility for more than 500 attacks since its creation, including a series of suicide bombings. Unique among rebel groups operating in Syria, it has also earned the legitimacy of top global jihadist ideologues, who have called for grassroots supporters across the world to help fund or join up with the group. And foreign fighters have answered the call: Based on data from al Qaeda's online forums, of the 46 individuals for which the forums have provided "martyrdom" notices and announced their group affiliation, 20 fought with Jabhat al-Nusra. Since Oct. 1, almost all of the notices that mention affiliation have reported that the fighter was aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra.
Jabhat al-Nusra is also plugged into al Qaeda's transnational online media echo system. Its official media outlet, al-Manara al-Bayda ("the White Minaret"), maintains ties with al Qaeda's web forums Shamukh al-Islam and al-Fida' al-Islam. On Shamukh, there is even a dedicated section for Jabhat al-Nusra's releases -- a status only shared with the ISI.
The Obama administration may try to nip the rise of Jabhat al-Nusra in the bud by issuing a terrorist designation now, prior to an attack on U.S. interests or its homeland. This would represent a break from past behavior, when jihadist organizations such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were only designated following the large-scale -- though both failed -- 2009 Christmas Day and 2010 Time Square plots, respectively.
The unique circumstances in Syria might be the reason for the differing approach. Syrians have been demonstrating and fighting for more than 21 months to shed President Bashar al-Assad's yoke of tyranny. The rebellion has been radicalized over time by the brutal tactics of the regime, creating a more Islamist fighting force than when the armed rebellion first started gaining steam.
Getting Syria's rebels to disavow Jabhat al-Nusra may not be an easy task, however. As in Iraq, jihadists have been some of the most effective and audacious fighters against the Assad regime, garnering respect from other rebel groups in the process. Jabhat al-Nusra seems to have learned from the mistakes of al Qaeda in Iraq: It has not attacked civilians randomly, nor has it shown wanton disregard for human life by publicizing videos showing the beheading of its enemies. Even if its views are extreme, it is getting the benefit of the doubt from other insurgents due to its prowess on the battlefield.
So can the Obama administration isolate Jabhat al-Nusra? While some in the Syrian opposition would welcome a U.S. decision to slap a terrorist designation on the group, many will likely view this as another case of the U.S. government actually acting in support of Assad -- demonizing an element of the insurgency while simultaneously offering little assistance itself to topple the regime.
As a result, designating Jabhat al-Nusra could backfire on the United States. In the short term, it might galvanize more support for the group as Syrian rebels look to spite the Obama administration for its lack of support. A terror designation could also provide even more legitimacy for the organization amongst global jihadi supporters, leading even more foreigners to join up with its cause.
In the long run, however, marginalizing Jabhat al-Nusra and its ideology is a fight that the United States -- and ordinary Syrians everywhere -- must win. Once the Assad regime falls, the rebels' shared military goals will disappear, and it will be the job of the Obama administration and mainstream rebel groups to isolate extremist groups. The outcome of this future fight is inextricably related to the Obama administration's efforts to help the rebels now. But without a swift end to the Assad regime and more engagement with the opposition, the United States won't have much leverage to shape Syria's future -- no matter what it decides to call Jabhat al-Nusra.
*Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow fellow at The Washington Institute.