Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for December 10/12
Concern that Assad may have passed some chemical weapons to Hizballah
Israel: 'Passing WMDs to Hezbollah – a red line'
Lebanon's State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr requests Officials, Testimony of Shaaban in Samaha Case
Judge requests footage, recordings of MP Saqr
March 14 to resume discussion on electoral law
Lebanese Cabinet fails to refer salary scale to Parliament
Jumblatt criticizes Cabinet over tax proposals
March 14 seeks Cabinet change through Sleiman
Mikati, Charbel deny receiving hit list'
Hariri Urges Tripoli Residents to 'Show Solidarity to Foil Suspicious Plots'
Lebanese Army executes security plan to end Tripoli unrest
Phalange Party Calls for Parliamentary Meeting to Resolve Dispute over Electoral Law
Patriarch Ignatius IV Hazim Laid to Rest in Damascus
Report: Israel tracking Syria's WMD arsenal
German spy chief: End drawing close for Assad
US puts Syria WMD contingencies in place
Israel: Maj.-Gen. Eizenkot named deputy chief of staff
'PA grants Hamas permission to hold W. Bank rally'
Hamas chief Meshaal leaves Gaza after historic trip
EU rebuffs critics as it accepts Nobel peace prize
Ecuador says asylum for Assad not ruled out
Jihadists seize key north Syria army base
Sham II: New fighting machine of Syria rebels
Syria New Opposition Head Meets EU Ministers
Egypt's opposition rejects constitutional referendum
Morsi gives army arrest powers before referendum
Egypt army gets temporary power to arrest civilians
Egypt's Morsi imposes martial law for referendum
Morsi gives army arrest powers prior to vote
Egypt opposition urges more protests
Egypt's top court suspends work indefinitely  
Op-Ed: The spring that wasn't

'Passing WMDs to Hezbollah – a red line'
Israeli ambassador to US tell Fox News chemical weapons in hands of Shiite terror group would be a 'game-changer' for Israel
Yitzhak Benhorin Published: 12.10.12/Ynetnews
WASHINGTON – Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren told Fox News that should any chemical weapons reach Hezbollah, Israel would considered it a "red line" and a "game-changer" in the region.
Israel and the West are following the situation in Syria closely, as Syrian President Bashar Assad's hold on the war-torn country frays.
Syria has the largest arsenal of chemical and biological weapons in the world. The escalating civil war has sparked concerns that Assad's WMDs may find their ways to terror groups such as Hezbollah; as well as concerns that the desperate ruler may use them on his own people.
"We're watching the situation very carefully. We have been watching it many months now and it's not new to us," Oren told Fox' Christopher Wallace, on Fox News Sunday.
"Syria has a varied, deep chemical weapons program. It's geographically dispersed as well and were those weapons to pass into the wrong hands, into Hezbollah's hands, for example, that would be a game changer for us."
Asked whether he had any information about the reports suggesting Assad's army had begun arming bombs with nonconventional weapons, Oren said that he could not confirm the reports.
El Saphira military facility in Syria
Israel, he said, "Has a very clear red line, about those chemical weapons, passing into the wrong hands. Can you imagine, if Hezbollah, with its 70,000 rockets, got its hands on chemical weapons, that could kill thousands of people." US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both said that any deployment or use of Damascus chemical weapons would constitute a red line for Washington.
Obama delivered a stern warning to the Syrian regime, saying that "If you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences, and you will be held accountable." Clinton reiterated the warning.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also warned the Syrian president against committing an "outrageous crime" warning it would have "huge consequences." NATO joined in on the forewarning, saying that "Any use of chemical weapons by Syria's government would prompt an immediate international response."
Israel, Oren said "Support (Obama's) red line as well, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has come out publicly and supported President Obama's red lines regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
"The Jihad presence is big and getting bigger. And the longer the conflict goes on there, the bigger it will get.
"We have long advocated for Bashar Assad's departure, long before, actually the outbreak of hostilities. We came to the administration, years ago and said Bashar Assad is too reckless. His father was, remember Hafez? He was reckless, but somehow predictable – reckless but somehow responsible. His son is reckless and irresponsible and ruthless."
Assad, Oren continued, "Has provided 70,000 rockets to Hezbollah in Lebanon, tens of thousands of rockets to terrorists everywhere. He had tried to create a nuclear facility, secretly. Hafez Assad probably would have never done something like that. "So, he has to go. He is a loose cannon throughout the region and a danger to the entire region. If he goes now, we would view that as a positive development. He's an ally of Iran. He's an ally of Hezbollah. We understand that if Jihadists were to come in, it wouldn't be good. But, it perhaps wouldn't be as bad as the current situation."

Concern that Assad may have passed some chemical weapons to Hizballah
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 10, 2012/There is growing concern that some of the chemical weapons the Assad regime has been pushing out of the Damascus area in the last few days were sent across the border to Hizballah strongholds in the Lebanese Beqaa Valley to keep them out of rebel hands. Syrian army officers who recently defected report that containers were last week removed from Syrian bases at Jabal Kalamon and loaded on vehicles camouflaged as commercial trucks. On the Lebanese side, the consignment is thought to have been split up and hidden at different Hizballah bases to make them harder to attack.
Israel’s US Ambassador Michael Oren, asked by a FOX TV interviewer Saturday Dec. 8, if he could confirm this, said he could not, but warned that any evidence of chemical weapons being passed from the Assad regime to extremist groups like Hizballah would be a "game-changer," and a "red line" for Israel. "We have a very clear red line about those chemical weapons passing into the wrong hands. Can you imagine if Hizballah and its 70,000 rockets would get its hands on chemical weapons? That could kill thousands of people." Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon on he other hand saw no indication Sunday that Syria was planning to use chemical weapons against Israel. He refrained from going into any of the three possible perils presented by the regime in Damascus as it finds itself in a knife-edge situation:
1. Syria’s chemical weapons are deployed in at least five air force bases, with evidence of preparations to use them, as confirmed by British Foreign Secretary William Hague Saturday, Dec. 8. US military sources explained early Monday, Dec. 10, that the nerve gas sarin is effective up to 60 days after its precursor chemicals are mixed. Placing the weaponized material in close proximity to warplanes indicates an intention within that timeline to drop the poison gas bombs from the air. After that, sarin must be destroyed in controlled conditions lest its poisons escape into the environment. No one knows if the Syrians have the necessary scientific manpower to take responsibility for this process. 2. The battle around Al Safira, site of Syria’s biggest chemical weapons store and Scud D missiles fitted with chemical warheads, is fierce and fluid: the base changes hands every few hours in heavy fighting between Syria army and rebel forces. Saturday, the base’s capture by the rebels triggered a warning from the Assad regime against throwing chemical weapons into the battle. Sunday, Al Safira was recaptured, but the rebels are sweeping through the surrounding villages and closing in on three sides. For now, Syrian forces control the road connecting Al Safira to Aleppo, but the rebels have seized parts of Sheikh Suleiman, the biggest air base near that city, and are getting close to that highway. Its fall would snap shut the rebel siege on Al Safira.
Control of Al Safira would place the big chemical weapons stores in the hands of rebel forces in that sector, many of whom belong to Jabhat al-Nusra, the roof organization of the al Qaeda elements fighting in Syria against the Assad regime. 3. In the estimate of Western and Israeli intelligence agencies, Assad has already directed his troops fighting in and around Damascus to use chemical weapons if the rebels get near to seizing any part of Damascus international airport.

Lebanon's State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr requests Officials, Testimony of Shaaban in Samaha Case
Naharnet/State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr completed on Monday his assessment of the case of former Minister Michel Samaha, requesting that the investigation expand to include the questioning of Syrian officials, reported the National News Agency. Saqr requested the questioning of Syrian security chief Ali Mamlouk and a colonel identified only as Adnan as suspects in the case.
He also asked that Buthaina Shaaban, Syrian President Bashar Assad's media adviser, be questioned as a witness. Saqr has since referred his assessment to First Military Investigation Judge Riyad Abu Ghida.
Commenting on Saqr's order, Samaha's lawyer Sakhr al-Hashem said that judicial rules agreed upon by Lebanon and Syria need to be implemented in order to meet his demand.
“No judicial rulings against wanted individuals can be issued without informing these people in person first,” he explained.
Should they fail to head to Lebanon for the hearing, then they should be informed through their country's justice or foreign ministries or the Higher Lebanese-Syrian Council, he added.
“The case was taking its normal course before Saqr's assessment,” Hashem noted. Samaha was arrested in August on charges of forming a criminal gang aimed at carrying out attacks in Lebanon at Syria's behest.
Mamlouk and Syrian colonel Adnan have been also charged in the affair. Mamlouk is suspected of forming a group to provoke sectarian killings and terrorist acts using explosives, which were transported and stored by Samaha.
Media reports had said in October that Shaaban may also be linked to the case. Sources told MTV at the time that Shaaban and Samaha had held a telephone conversation while the latter was allegedly in Damascus to transfer explosives from Syria to Lebanon.

March 14 seeks Cabinet change through Sleiman
December 10, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The March 14 coalition is in contact with President Michel Sleiman to explore a solution to the current political stalemate through a Cabinet change, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Sunday.
But Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah signaled that the government would stay in office to supervise next year’s parliamentary elections.
“We are in contact with the president to find a solution to the Cabinet crisis. The search for a new Cabinet is taking place only through President Sleiman,” Siniora told The Daily Star.
Siniora, head of the Future parliamentary bloc, reiterated the March 14 demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government before attending any National Dialogue session. Sleiman had unsuccessfully tried to convene last month to discuss a solution to the political crisis.
“No dialogue before the government’s resignation and the formation of a neutral salvation Cabinet to oversee the elections,” Siniora said.
Mikati and his March 8 allies have warned of a power vacuum should the government step down in the absence of an agreement on a new Cabinet.
Asked how would March 14 achieve its demand for the government’s resignation, Siniora said: “We will use persuasion and democratic means. Boycott is one of these democratic means. We have no weapons except the weapon of democracy.”
Following the Oct. 19 assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, chief of the police’s Information Branch, in a car bomb in the Beirut district of Ashrafieh, the March 14 coalition called for the government’s resignation and the formation of “a neutral salvation Cabinet” before attending any Dialogue session with the March 8 parties.
The March 14 parties have also boycotted the government and all Cabinet-related meetings in Parliament as part of their tactics to force a government resignation.
Siniora acknowledged that attempts have so far failed to make inroads in the political deadlock that threatens to destabilize Lebanon after a fresh round of sectarian clashes in the northern city of Tripoli. The violence in the northern Lebanese city has heightened fears that the conflict in Syria will spill over into Lebanon.
Some 17 people have been killed and more than 70 wounded in fierce fighting between supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad in Tripoli in the past few days.
Siniora said the issue of a Cabinet change was discussed during his meeting last week with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt.
The ice-breaking meeting, held at Jumblatt’s residence in Mukhtara in the Chouf mountains, was the first face-to-face encounter between senior officials from the Future Movement and the PSP.
The two sides also discussed the 2013 parliamentary elections and the electoral law it would be based on amid sharp differences between the March 8 and March 14 parties on a new electoral law.
Siniora said Jumblatt’s stance on a Cabinet change has not changed. The PSP leader has rejected the government’s resignation, fearing a power vacuum in the absence of a consensus on the formation of a new Cabinet.
Mikati discussed the political crisis with Speaker Nabih Berri at the latter’s residence in Ain al-Tineh Saturday.
Mikati said the talks also covered the parliamentary subcommittee tasked with examining proposals for a new electoral law and the government’s new salary scale for civil servants and public school teachers amid a strike planned by the teachers’ unions for Wednesday to press the Cabinet to refer the draft law on the salary raise to Parliament.
Nasrallah ruled out the government’s resignation, saying the government would stay in place to oversee the 2013 elections.
He added that Hezbollah was preparing for the parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place in June next year.
“The government is staying to supervise the parliamentary elections. Its resignation will be normal and constitutional [after the elections],” Nasrallah said during a dialogue with university students Friday.
He added that Hezbollah has begun preparations for the elections in a serious and effective manner, rejecting accusations that the party was working to postpone the vote.
Nasrallah said Hezbollah would support any electoral law to be agreed on by the Lebanese, even though it preferred the government’s draft electoral law based on a system of proportional representation with 13 medium-sized districts. However, the government’s draft law has been rejected outright by the March 14 parties, which have come forward with their own electoral proposal for dividing Lebanon into 50 small districts.
Also Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai called on rival political leaders to reconcile and shoulder their responsibility in ensuring stability, security and peace in the country.
Speaking in Sunday’s Mass at his seat in Bkiri, north of Beirut, Rai urged the rival factions to cooperate “to meet the citizens’ needs, put an end unemployment and emigration and open new horizons and a promising future for the new generation.” Minister of Public Works Ghazi Aridi said the PSP’s political initiative was aimed at warding off the threat of sectarian strife in Lebanon as a result of rising tension linked to the conflict in Syria.
In a speech at a PSP ceremony in the town of Ras al-Metn marking the birthday of the late Kamal Jumblatt, Aridi recalled the splits between March 8 and March 14 parties over the crisis in Syria. “We have tried from the beginning to say to everyone that the Syrian crisis is bigger than us and we are in disagreement on analyzing it. There are some who support the [Syrian] regime and others who are against it. So let’s come together to organize the differences,” Aridi said. Referring to the parties’ fiery speeches containing “venom and hatred,” and the threat of strife, he added: “Faced with this situation, the PSP has decided to launch an initiative toward all the political parties. We are convinced that we have no other choice to dialogue.”Aridi and two other ministers from Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc have visited the country’s rival factions to brief them on the PSP’s initiative aimed at bridging the wide gap between the parties on a solution to the crisis.The initiative, which was announced by Jumblatt last month, called on all parties to accept National Dialogue as the only means to resolve the crisis and avoid involvement in the Syrian conflict.

Judge requests footage, recordings of MP Saqr
December 10, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Lebanon's Prosecutor Judge Hatem Madi requested Monday footage and audio recordings of Future MP Oqab Saqr to investigate the MP’s rebuttal of his involvement in arms transfers to Syrian rebels, judicial sources told The Daily Star. Madi requested the footage of an interview the lawmaker did for New TV aired Sunday, a press conference broadcast on Future TV Thursday and the three audiotapes aired by Lebanon’s OTV late November, the sources said. According to the sources, Madi’s request aims at verifying Saqr’s claims that he was not involved in military activity with rebels, after OTV and Al-Akhbar newspaper published audio recordings in which he can be heard discussing supplying weapons to alleged Syrian rebels. In the recordings he is heard talking to a man whom Al-Akhbar describes as a leader of a militant group in the Syrian opposition to make arrangements for the drop-off of weapons to rebels. Last week, Madi tasked the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau with examining the audio recordings broadcast by the two media outlets, both of which are pro-March 8. Saqr, who admitted in comments to pan Arab Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat that it was him speaking in the recordings, said the tapes were doctored to implicate him in a military role of which he is innocent. In the press conference held from Turkey, Ankara, and broadcast on pro-March 14 Future TV Thursday, Saqr challenged the Syrian government and his Lebanese rivals to prove that he was indeed providing rebels with weapons.Saqr said the aid he offered to Syrian rebels was only humanitarian, such as providing milk and food to Syrian refugees. The lawmaker also said that, on instructions of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, he was engaged in negotiations with rebels to secure the release of Lebanese hostages held in Syria. In his New TV interview, Saqr challenged Al-Akhbar newspaper to publish what he said were the remainder of the recordings and to reveal the source that provided them with the tapes. “I am prepared to face trial if the recordings I made public were proven not to be genuine,” Saqr said.

Morsi gives army arrest powers before referendum
AFP Published: 12.10.12, 15:10 / Israel News
Egyptian president gives his military police extensive jurisdiction ahead of constitution vote
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has ordered Egypt's army from Monday to take on police powers – including the right to arrest civilians – in the run-up to a vote on a constitution that has triggered bloodshed.
The decree takes effect on the eve of mass rival protests on the referendum that is to be staged on Saturday, and follows street clashes that have left seven people dead and hundreds injured.
It orders the military to fully cooperate with police "to preserve security and protect vital state institutions for a temporary period, up to the announcement of the results from the referendum," according to a copy of the decree.
Army officers "all have powers of legal arrest," it says. The military, which ruled Egypt between former president Hosni Mubarak's ouster in February 2011 to Morsi's election in June 2012, has sought to remain neutral in the political crisis.  But it has warned it "will not allow" the situation to deteriorate, and urged both sides to dialogue. Army tanks and troops have since Thursday deployed around Morsi's presidential palace. But they have not confronted thousands of protesters who have gathered there every night. The opposition, made up of secular, liberal, leftwing and Christian groups, has said it will escalate its protests to scupper the referendum.
It views the new constitution, largely drawn up by Morsi's Islamist allies, as undermining human rights, the rights of women, religious minorities, and curtailing the independence of the judiciary.
Morsi has defiantly pushed on with the draft charter, seeing it as necessary to secure democratic reform in the wake of Mubarak's 30-year autocratic rule.
Late Sunday, the main opposition group, the National Salvation Front, called for huge protests in Cairo to reject the December 15 constitutional referendum. It said Morsi used near-absolute powers he had decreed himself last month to railroad through the draft constitution, and his revocation of those powers on the weekend came too late. "We do not recognize the draft constitution because it does not represent the Egyptian people," National Salvation Front spokesman Sameh Ashour told a news conference. In recent days, the protesters have hardened their slogans, going beyond criticism of the decree and the referendum to demand Morsi's ouster.
The Muslim Brotherhood, from which Morsi hails, shot back that Islamist movements would counter with their own big rallies in the capital in support of the referendum.
"We are calling for a demonstration Tuesday, under the slogan 'Yes to legitimacy'," the Brotherhood's spokesman, Mahmud Ghozlan, said. If the charter is rejected, Morsi has promised to have a new one drawn up by 100 officials chosen directly by the public rather than appointed by the Islamist-dominated parliament. But analysts said still-strong public support for Morsi and the Brotherhood's proven ability to mobilize at grassroots level would likely help the draft constitution be adopted. "The Muslim Brotherhood believes that it has majority support so it can win the constitutional referendum," said Eric Trager, analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
If that happens, he warned, it would "set up the country for prolonged instability".

Iran Threatens Aerial Freedom of Navigation in the Gulf
Eddie Boxx, Michael Eisenstadt, and Michael Knights/Washington Institute
By firing on a U.S. aircraft, Iran has upped the ante in the Gulf and set a bad precedent for international airspace rights worldwide.
Last month, Iranian jets intercepted and fired on an unarmed U.S. drone aircraft in international airspace. And this week, Tehran displayed what it claims is a captured U.S. Navy ScanEagle drone, a charge Washington flatly denies. These Iranian actions and rhetoric demonstrate a growing anti-U.S. campaign with drones as the cause celebre.
For now, Washington has opted not to retaliate for the November incident, but it needs to ensure that the confrontation does not become a precedent that limits U.S. aerial freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. The United States must preserve its patrolling rights, particularly in light of Iran's threat to regional shipping and apparent desire to pursue nuclear weapons. Given the short range from Iranian ports to major commercial maritime lanes, the ability to quickly detect any provocative naval preparations is paramount. If aerial surveillance and intelligence collection were rerouted further away from the Iranian border, coalition forces would face a severe intelligence gap in detecting the regime's offensive military preparations or, worse yet, suspected nuclear activity.
THE INTERCEPT
On the morning of November 1, two Iranian Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack aircraft shot at a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone. The use of non-radar-equipped Su-25s indicates that ground-based radar controllers in Iran tracked the Predator, launched the Su-25s at precisely the right time, and effectively guided the pilots to the drone, placing them in an optimal position to fire on this difficult-to-detect target. As the Su-25 has a fairly short range, ground controllers had to bring the shooters to the target with minimum delay. All in all, the intercept over the Gulf demonstrated competent pilot and controller skills and effective collaboration.
The use of Su-25s also indicates that the incident was a well-planned show of force. Tehran reportedly holds thirteen Su-25s, seven of which were Iraqi aircraft that it impounded after their pilots sought refuge in Iran during the 1991 Gulf War. Unlike Iran's F-5s, F-14s, and F-4s, the Su-25 is a close air support platform designed to fly low and slow over the battlefield; it is not an interceptor. Its use against the Predator suggests that the operation may have been initiated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which does not oversee any air-to-air fighters -- the Su-25 is its only high-performance aircraft. This would also indicate the degree to which the IRGC and the regular air force remain independent entities that do not work well together.
There may have been technical reasons for the decision as well: the Su-25's slow speed allowed it to shadow the Predator (which flies at around 100 knots) and attempt a hit with its cannon, a feat that would have been much more difficult for a faster fighter jet. For example, in 2006, an Israeli F-16 pursuing a Hizballah Ababil drone near Haifa was forced to slow down to near-stall speed (less than 200 knots) in order to intercept it; the pilot then had to use a helmet-mounted sight in conjunction with the highly maneuverable Python 4 missile in order to score the kill.
AERIAL FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION
The November incident was a watershed political event as well. IRGC commanders have been pushing the boundaries of unacceptable conduct for years, such as targeting America's closest ally by detaining British military personnel in Iraq in 2004 and 2007. The IRGC's Qods Force also orchestrated the January 2007 abduction and murder of five U.S. servicemen in Karbala. Since then, the IRGC has engaged in provocative behavior near U.S. Navy vessels in the Gulf, undertaking reckless mock attacks and dropping items in the path of American ships to simulate mines. Now that Iran has fired on a U.S. aircraft, it has upped the ante for military confrontation in the Gulf.
The exact location of the November incident remains unclear. Reports mention the area near the coastal city of Bushehr across the Gulf from Kuwait. Iran asserts that the intercept took place inside of twelve nautical miles, while the United States says it occurred in international airspace, sixteen miles from the coast and thus four miles outside of Iranian airspace. This illustrates the complicated nature of Gulf airspace boundaries, especially factoring in contested islands and an uneven coastline. The danger is that Tehran may believe airborne confrontations in disputed airspace are a good way to stimulate nationalist support for the regime as the effects of international economic sanctions take hold, thus creating an even more volatile situation in the region.
The incident also has several important implications for international law and custom. Historically, the United States has challenged aggressive incidents in international waters and airspace, and if this latest affront is left unanswered, it could limit U.S. freedom of action in the Gulf. Washington must establish that drones are no different from manned aircraft in legal terms -- reconnaissance missions (manned and unmanned) are authorized by international law. If this incident is left unresolved, the myriad RC-135 Rivet Joint, U-2, RQ-4 Global Hawk, and JSTARS aircraft monitoring hotspots worldwide could also be at risk when flying in or near contested airspace.
U.S. OPTIONS
Washington should first make a bigger diplomatic deal out of the November interdiction, arguing its case through UN agencies such as the International Court of Justice and International Civil Aviation Organization. The goal of such an approach would be to resolve any differences with Iran regarding its airspace boundaries and prevent future escalation. In the past, the U.S. Fifth Fleet has responded quickly and resolutely to Iranian maritime provocations, and Washington should do the same in the air. With a hefty $4 million price tag, Predator drones are certainly not expendable. Moreover, they are U.S.-flagged military aircraft and need to be treated as such.
The U.S. government should also propose a dialogue with Iran regarding Dangerous Military Activities (DMA) procedures. International law permits fighter aircraft to investigate another country's aircraft in international airspace, and during the Cold War, Washington and Moscow recognized the need for radio communications when conducting such flights. U.S. and Soviet representatives met and developed DMA protocol to ensure aircrew safety and alleviate any unwanted escalations due to potential "misunderstandings."
If Iran does not respond diplomatically, the United States should also undertake multinational freedom of navigation missions involving aircraft from maritime users of the Persian Gulf, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Such joint flights would improve interoperability and ensure lawful military activities in a corridor heavily used by civilian aviation. This would send Iran a clear message: international airspace boundaries, like maritime boundaries, must be honored.
Finally, as a last resort, Washington should consider giving Predator drones a self-defense capability, and advertising this fact. U.S. Central Command mounted Stinger missiles on Predators over a decade ago, when Iraq initiated its own short-lived campaign to shoot down the drones. Stingers are heat-seekers with a three-mile range, and such a capability might cause Iran to give Predators a wider berth; at worst, the missiles would give the aircraft a greater chance of survival if attacked. In addition, the administration should quietly signal to Tehran that it reserves the right to strike Iranian airbases if the regime launches offensive sorties, and that such retaliation would occur at a time and place of Washington's choosing. Even the IRGC may balk at trading an entire base for one unmanned U.S. aircraft.
*Lt. Col. Eddie Boxx, USAF, is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Michael Eisenstadt is director of the Institute's Military and Security Studies Program. Michael Knights is a Lafer fellow with the Institute.

Egypt's Mursi, President or puppet?
December 10, 2012/ The Daily Star
The dangerous lack of foresight which Mohammad Mursi has shown over the last few weeks, during which he has literally played with people’s lives, serves as a worrying wake-up call to all those concerned with the future of Egypt. While Mursi has withdrawn the controversial decree which would have granted him wide-ranging powers, immune from judicial review, he is sticking firm to the referendum, scheduled for Dec. 15, on the draft constitution which opposition figures slam as being one-sided and unrepresentative.
Mursi is neglecting to do justice to all the groups and sects of Egypt. Rather he appears to see himself as president of one faction – the Muslim Brotherhood – and not as president of 83 million people.
Mursi seems to believe that the 50 percent share of the vote which he received is enough to keep him and his decrees afloat. However, he appears to be forgetting that many voted for him not from a position of overwhelming support for the Brotherhood but instead their ballot in his favor was influenced by a desire to reject the alternative, which for many represented the status quo and the old guard, which they had doggedly fought for in toppling former President Hosni Mubarak. Having fought for their freedom, many with their lives, Egyptians deserve representation which is honest and transparent, and which strives for the good of the country as a whole. This has yet to transpire. The mass protests, and deaths, which followed Mursi’s announcement of the decree, should have been expected by the president and his advisers. Politics is not a game of waiting and reacting. It must involve careful analysis and insight, allowing for reasoned decision-making. Issuing rash statements, and then ultimately retracting them following an outcry which many would have expected, is not presidential behavior.
This lack of vision, wisdom and governance does not bode well for the future of Egypt. His backtracking and hasty decision-making also works against the country’s image at a time when it is in dire need of international support, both in terms of tourism and aid. While campaigning for the presidency, Mursi claimed to be an independent candidate, with the best interests of the country and its citizens at heart, but since his election he has proven himself to be little more than a puppet for the Brotherhood, and one that is prepared to push the party’s objectives, despite how far removed that agenda may be from the true aspirations of the majority of Egyptians.
Before it is too late, and the dreams of the revolution are forgotten forever, Mursi must task an independent committee with drafting a new constitution, one removed from the short-term wishes of one party. Otherwise he has to brace himself for more ongoing discontent on the streets.

Syria…The Yemen deal but distorted
Asharq Al-Awsat/By Tariq Alhomayed
The Secretary General of the Arab League has heralded the Syrian crisis entering its “final stage”. In turn, the Qataris are optimistic about a converging US-Russian stance towards Syria, especially with the announcement of a meeting between Russian and American officials in Geneva, with Lakhdar Brahimi in attendance, to discuss the Syrian issue. So what is going on?
Sources indicate that there is a Russian proposal to form a transitional government with no powers for al-Assad, and no involvement of any member of the al-Assad regime who has Syrian blood on his hands. This transitional government would be headed by a prominent Syrian opposition member, whilst al-Assad would remain in the country until 2014 but would not stand in the next elections; at least this is a summary of what I heard. Of course the Russians say that they have not changed their stance towards what is happening in Syria, so the question here is: If the Russians have not changed their stance then why the meeting with the Americans and Brahimi in the first place? Why the optimism of the Qataris and Nabil Elaraby, the latter especially who said that the goal of the US-Russian negotiations in Geneva is “to prepare for a Security Council resolution”, and that the resolution will be “a clear message to the regime that it is no longer protected”. Elaraby did not stop there, he also said that the Syrian opposition could form an alternative to take over power at an appropriate time, so what is the reason behind such optimism and statements if Russia’s position has not changed?
It is clear from the proposal referred to above that there is an attempt to apply the Gulf initiative in Yemen to the Syrian crisis now, but in a distorted manner, under the pretext of the fear of al-Assad using chemical weapons. Of course, if this proposal, i.e. for a transitional government and for al-Assad to remain in Syria until 2014, is the real basis for the US-Russian meeting with Lakhdar Brahimi, then this is nothing but a waste of time and an attempt to save al-Assad from all the crimes he has committed, rather than an attempt to get him to leave the country. Al-Assad’s exit may be an acceptable option to the Syrians, provided that he leaves for another country immediately so the transitional phase can begin. As for waiting for the 2014 elections, this would legitimize al-Assad because it would mean acknowledging him as president, despite all the Syrians who have died, and this is certainly unworkable. For al-Assad to step down and stay in Syria, along the lines of Ali Abdullah Saleh who stayed in Yemen, this is truly unacceptable.
Thus, it is clear from the Russian stance now, whatever the Russians say, that Moscow has begun to lose hope in the resilience of the al-Assad regime, and has begun to realize there is no point standing by it. Likewise it is clear from the US-Russian meeting that Moscow now is in a stage of negotiation, even though the Russians have waited a long time and many of their negotiation cards in Syria have lost their value as a result of the developing situation on the ground. The Free Syrian Army has begun to surround the capital Damascus with the rapid weakening of the al-Assad regime, and at the same time the Syrian opposition is becoming more cohesive and robust on the political stage. Thus it is difficult today to imagine any proposal or solution to the Syrian crisis without al-Assad leaving the scene completely now, not in a year or two years’ time.