LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 19/2012

Bible Quotation for today/
Luke 11/45-53: " One of the teachers of the Law said to him, “Teacher, when you say this, you insult us too!” Jesus answered, “How terrible also for you teachers of the Law! You put onto people's backs loads which are hard to carry, but you yourselves will not stretch out a finger to help them carry those loads. How terrible for you! You make fine tombs for the prophets—the very prophets your ancestors murdered. You yourselves admit, then, that you approve of what your ancestors did; they murdered the prophets, and you build their tombs. For this reason the Wisdom of God said, ‘I will send them prophets and messengers; they will kill some of them and persecute others.’ So the people of this time will be punished for the murder of all the prophets killed since the creation of the world, from the murder of Abel to the murder of Zechariah, who was killed between the altar and the Holy Place. Yes, I tell you, the people of this time will be punished for them all! “How terrible for you teachers of the Law! You have kept the key that opens the door to the house of knowledge; you yourselves will not go in, and you stop those who are trying to go in!” When Jesus left that place, the teachers of the Law and the Pharisees began to criticize him bitterly and ask him questions about many things, trying to lay traps for him and catch him saying something wrong.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Iraq: One Year After Withdrawal/by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi/The American Spectator/December 18/12

New Lebanese Politicians and leaders are needed
Elias Bejjani/Our beloved occupied country Lebanon is cripples because both Lebanese current major coalitions are politically either castrated or Axis of evil cheap and criminal tools. The 08th of March is a terrorist group of mere puppets and mercenaries. They are fully financed, controlled and run by Iran and Syria, While the 14th one is a coalition of politically castrated politicians in their majority. They are so coward and so selfish and have lost tens of great opportunities since 2005 to liberate the country. In summary both are worst than each other which means through them there will be no hope at all. New politicians and leaders are needed to replace them.

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea : Those Accusing Us of Blocking Electoral Law are Blind, Nasrallah Must Advise Himself before Advising Qaida
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday noted that the March 14 forces are exerting efforts more than others to pass a new electoral law, urging Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to “let the state function” before offering advice to al-Qaida about Syria. “The current deterioration of the economic situation stems from the lack of confidence in the government politically and security-wise, as it does not have relations with the Arab countries and they're almost severed, at a time when the factor of the Arab countries has an impact on our economy,” Geagea said in an interview with the Central News Agency, in response to Nasrallah's recent suggestion to form an economic action group. “No action group can succeed as long as this government exists,” Geagea added, noting that “the most important action group in this regard is comprised of business owners and employees, who are both demanding the resignation of the government.” Turning to the issue of the 2013 parliamentary elections, the LF leader rejected accusations that the March 14 forces are blocking the adoption of a new electoral law, saying those behind such allegations “are either blind or turning a blind eye to the real events in this country.” “We are the ones exerting the most efforts to change the current law,” Geagea added, reminding that the LF “was the first party to suggest the law drafted by the Orthodox Gathering at a time when some parties cold-shouldered this proposal.” “We then moved to other suggestions, such as the 50 electorates law which we believe is the closest to the Orthodox Gathering's proposal,” Geagea added. He charged that the rival Free Patriotic Movement is not seeking to pass an electoral law that would “enhance Christian representation,” but rather to “pass the 13 electorates law put forward by the government, because it would ensure the return of Hizbullah and its allies to power.”Geagea stressed that the March 14 camp is boycotting government “because the other camp is using assassinations as a political tool, not because we want to obstruct the adoption of a new electoral law.”Commenting on Nasrallah's warning to al-Qaida that it has been “tricked” into fighting in Syria, Geagea said Hizbullah's leader “must advise himself before advising others and must take a decision, along with his party's Shoura Council, to fix things in Lebanon and let the Lebanese state and its institutions and administrations perform their duties.”
“Before offering advice to al-Qaida, Sayyed Hassan must behave according to this advice, pay attention to the regional and international conspiracies that are being plotted against Lebanon, and act accordingly,” Geagea added.

Aoun: No Unrest Will Take Place if Elections Not Held due to March 14 Camp's Obstruction
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun slammed on Tuesday the March 14 camp's obstruction of parliamentary work, accusing the “minority of practicing a dictatorship” in Lebanon.He said after the Change and Reform bloc's weekly meeting: “I assure the people that no unrest will take place if the parliamentary elections are not staged due to the March 14 camp's obstruction.” “They are seeking to obstruct parliament in order to halt discussions on a new electoral law,” he added. “There are legal aspects to the 1960s law that prevent us from approving it,” he continued. “We will no longer accept oppression against the Christians. They have been oppressed since 1990 as their rights have been usurped when it comes to the distribution of electoral districts,” explained Aoun. Furthermore, the MP urged Speaker Nabih Berri to call on the joint parliamentary committees to convene in order to address various draft laws. “The state's authority cannot be crippled. No one should tamper with such issues,” he warned. Silent complicity with the other camp's actions will not pass unnoticed, he said. We will not be held responsible for the failure to hold the parliamentary elections, declared the FPM leader. “They are responsible for the obstruction of the functioning of state institutions and yet they blame me for it,” he remarked. “What is left of democratic life if parliament is obstructed?” he wondered. “We will maintain stability in Lebanon whether the elections are held or not,” remarked Aoun.
On the flow Palestinian refugees from Syria to Lebanon due to the shelling of refugee camps in the neighboring country, the MP stated: “We thank the United States and Europe for their wars and for sending the refugees to Lebanon.” “Lebanon can no longer support the burden of the refugees,” he added. Moreover, he warned of the extremism that the refugees may bring to Lebanon, explaining: “We cannot accept some of their views on women and crime.” “A campaign should be launched against the traditions that they bring with them,” he added, while noting that in the past the Danish Embassy in Beirut's Ashrafiyeh district was burned over insulting pictures of the Prophet Mohammed that were published in Denmark. “This is a dangerous issue because it contradicts Muslim and Christian values,” he warned.

Syria-Appointed Lebanese Attorney Files Lawsuit Against Saqr
Naharnet /Lebanese lawyer Rashad Salameh filed on Tuesday a lawsuit against al-Mustaqbal movement lawmaker Oqab Saqr for allegedly sending arms to Syrian rebels. The lawyer agreed last week to file the lawsuit at the behest of Syrian authorities against several people allegedly involved in arming the Syrian opposition. The move came after Damascus issued arrest warrants against former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Saqr and Free Syrian Army member Louay al-Meqdad on charges of “arming and financing terrorist groups in Syria.” But Salameh said that he will confine the lawsuit to Saqr, if there was enough evidence to prove that he is guilty in the case which became public after recordings were aired by OTV and details published in al-Akhbar daily implicating the MP in arming the rebels at the behest of Hariri. Saqr denied the accusations, saying he was negotiating the release of Lebanese pilgrims held in Syria and aired during a conference what he said were the original audiotapes to prove his claims. Media reports said that the Interpol has vowed not to implement the warrants in line with its constitution and rules. Saqr described the Interpol's announcement as a “heavy blow” to Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime.
Salameh said in remarks published Tuesday that he isn't affiliated with any political party and has no personal stance from Saqr.
“I have my own political views but am not affiliated with any party, neither the March 14 opposition nor the March 8 alliance,” Salameh told An Nahar newspaper.

Russian warships sail for Syria, large anti-submarine ship for waters near Iran
DEBKAfile Special Report December 18, 2012/Russian warships set out Tuesday, Dec. 18, for two Middle East flashpoint destinations: Naval sources in Moscow reported that two assault ships, a tanker and an escort vessel were detached from the Baltic Fleet and are sailing for the Syrian port of Tartus – possibly to evacuate Russian citizens. A second naval group led by Russia’s largest anti-submarine vessel, the Severomorsk, is on its way to the Gulfs of Aden and Oman close to the Persian Gulf and Iran. The ships destined for Syria are the Russian fleet’s two largest amphibious assault vessels, the Kaliningrad and the Alexander Shabalin, which is a cruiser converted to a guided missile frigate renamed Yaroslav the Wise, the SB-921 rescue and tug ship, and the Lena military tanker. Russian military sources say this flotilla will relieve the Black Sea Fleet’s task force vessels deployed off the Syrian coast since November. The Severomorsk heading for waters near the Persian Gulf is escorted by ships which Russian sources have not named as well as a military tanker and a supply and rescue ship.
debkafile’s military and Moscow sources report that, while the Russians are undoubtedly concerned with the fate of the 20,000 Russian nationals remaining in war-torn Syria, the type of warships dispatched to Tartus do not fit the description of evacuation craft. They look more like a major Russian naval buildup opposite the Syrian coast.
For one thing, they are larger and more formidable than the Black Sea fleet ships they are relieving: the medium, amphibious assault ships, the Novocherkassk and Saratov, each of which carries 250 marines. The new arrivals each carry 520 marines and 25 amphibious tanks. For another, if it becomes necessary to evacuate large numbers of Russian refugees in a hurry, they are likely to be lifted out by air rather than by sea. Large transports are already on hand, touching down almost daily at Damascus and Aleppo airports with a continuous supply of weapons, ammunition and spare parts for replenishing the army loyal to Bashar Assad.
The Russian aircraft are practically the only foreign flights visiting the two beleaguered Syrian airports. While keeping Assad’s army in essential supplies, Moscow is also maintaining a constant presence there against the contingency of having to fly large numbers of Russian civilians out of the country. debkafile’s sources add that, while some Western quarters depict Russia’s military steps as actuated by the expectation of Assad’s imminent fall, Middle East military and Western intelligence sources see them rather as preparation for the international commotion and fallout arising from the introduction of chemical warfare to the Syrian conflict by the Syrian army or the insurgents. Both Washington and Moscow calculate that Assad may be in a race against certain rebel units, which are making a dash to lay hands on some of Syria’s biggest chemical and biological weapons stores.
One high-placed Western military source told debkafile Tuesday: “We can no longer be certain which side will use chemical weapons first - the Syrian army or the rebels – or even against whom: targets inside Syria or across its borders.”
According to this source, the countries abutting on Syria are deep in discreet though comprehensive military preparations in anticipation of three potential perils:
1. A chemical weapons attack on Turkey, Jordan or Israel and US military facilities present in those countries;
2. The outbreak of chemical warfare between the Syrian army and rebels - both armed with poisonsous substances;
3. Either of those contingencies if close would trigger rapid military action - both by combined Western-Arab forces and Israel - to get hold of Syria’s chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction and put them out of reach of Assad’s army and rebel units alike.

Sleiman committed to dialogue, polls on time
December 19, 2012 /By Wassim Mroueh/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman reiterated Tuesday his commitment to hold the 2013 parliamentary polls on time and to convene National Dialogue, as the war of words continued between the March 8 and the March 14 camps.“Elections should be held, and it is unacceptable at the international level that elections do not take place,” Sleiman told reporters after a visit he paid to Balamand Monastery, where he congratulated newly elected Greek Orthodox Patriarch John X Yaziji. “Lebanese have to protect themselves and spare Lebanon ... the repercussions of what is happening outside [the country],” Sleiman added. “We have paid a huge price for our democracy over the past 60 and 70 years in an undemocratic region and we have to pay attention so that Lebanon does not pay the price for the [transition to] democracy of others.”
Sleiman said this was the motivation behind a statement issued after a National Dialogue session on June 11 which called on all Lebanese groups to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries in the region.
Meanwhile, March 8 and March 14 leaders traded barbs, accusing each other of working to prevent the elections from being held on time.
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun accused the March 14 coalition of seeking to obstruct the endorsement of a new electoral law and to postpone elections by boycotting parliamentary sessions.
“The group that wants to prevent elections from taking place is the group that is boycotting Parliament and preventing the endorsement of an electoral law,” Aoun told reporters after chairing the weekly meeting of his parliamentary bloc at his Rabieh residence. But he also sought to assure the Lebanese that if elections do not take place, the security situation would remain stable in the country. “I assure the Lebanese there will be no tanks and canons, they should not be concerned ... it will not be a disaster,” he said. Following the Oct. assassination of Brig. General Wissam al-Hasan, the head of the Internal Security Forces Information Branch, the March 14 coalition called for the immediate resignation of Cabinet and began boycotting all parliamentary sessions attended by Cabinet members. March 14 MPs are also boycotting a subcommittee responsible for discussing the electoral system and district size in the Cabinet’s electoral law proposal.
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea dismissed accusations that the March 14 coalition was blocking the endorsement of a new electoral law, adding that Hezbollah would prevent elections if the electoral law adopted did not guarantee its victory. “We were the first who proposed the draft law presented by the Orthodox Gathering ... and we then moved to other draft laws, like the one which would divide Lebanon into 50 districts,” Geagea told a media outlet. Christian parties of the March 14 coalition have presented to Parliament a draft law that would divide Lebanon into 50 districts under a winner-takes-all system. Under the government’s draft law, Lebanon would be divided into 13 medium-sized districts under a proportional representation system. For its part, the FPM forwarded a draft law that would enable every sect to elect its own MPs under a proportional representation system.
Geagea said the FPM is not interested in an electoral law that provides fair representation for Christians, but rather in ensuring that the Cabinet’s draft law is endorsed in order to secure the return of Hezbollah and its allies to power. “If the Free Patriotic Movement’s goal is really to provide fairer representation for Christians, it should support the draft law that would divide the country into 50 districts, for which we have secured 60 votes so far,” Geagea said.
He added that the reason behind the March 14 coalition’s decision to boycott parliamentary meetings attended by Cabinet ministers was not to hinder the endorsement of a new election law, but because March 8 groups were carrying out assassinations against their March 14 rivals. Geagea said that despite his coalition’s stance regarding the Cabinet and security concerns, the alliance proposed attending the meetings of the subcommittee at the house of a March 14 MP, a proposal that was opposed by the March 8 coalition.
“So who is obstructing drafting a new electoral law?” asked Geagea. Speaker Nabih Berri proposed to MP Marwan Hamade Tuesday that March 14 members of the subcommittee facing a security threat stay at a hotel near Parliament and under Army protection until the body finishes its work. “The speaker told him that they can stay at a hotel in the security perimeter in which Parliament falls ... the speaker is trying his best to achieve a breakthrough,” a source close to the speaker told The Daily Star, adding that Hamade had promised to get back at the speaker.
Separately, the Future bloc of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri criticized Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s call Sunday to establish a team to address the country’s economic woes.
“The latest sayings of Sayyed Nasrallah bypass the constitutional institutions and amount to a frank confession of failure in addressing all issues,” the Future Movement said in statement after its weekly meeting at Hariri’s Downtown Beirut residence. “This affirms that Hezbollah has changed from a resistance [group] that once received great respect ... to a group striving desperately for power to serve regional interests,” the statement said. The bloc slammed remarks by Prime Minister Najib Mikati last week in which he said that the Lebanese Army’s intervention in Tripoli which stopped fighting earlier this month thwarted a plan to establish an Islamist emirate there. The bloc said that such remarks serve the purpose of the Syrian regime, which depicts Tripoli as a city of “extremism and terrorism.”In another development, in remarks to a local newspaper published Tuesday, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt said after meeting French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in France that Paris supported Lebanese institutions, National Dialogue and the government’s disassociation policy from the unrest in neighboring Syria.

Fadlallah scolds U.S. for telecoms request
December 19, 2012 /By Van Meguerditchian/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Foreign telecom companies need to go through the proper diplomatic channels to receive Lebanese government approval to install a network in the country, Hezbollah MP Hasan Fadlallah said Tuesday.
Following a meeting of the Parliament’s Media and Telecommunications Committee, Fadlallah, who chairs the committee, said that lawmakers need to discuss a request sent by an American company to the Telecommunications Ministry before making any decision. “Procedures require [companies] to request permission from the Foreign Affairs Ministry through their embassies,” said Fadlallah, who confirmed that a request was made by an American company through different channels. The meeting at Parliament was boycotted by the March 14 coalition.
Fadlallah’s comments came days after As-Safir newspaper reported on the American request for a permit to build a large telecoms station in Lebanon.
Sources at the Telecommunications Ministry told The Daily Star that a company that works with the United States government has asked the ministry to install a Mobile VSAT station near the southern coast to be used by the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon. Although the U.S. Embassy has denied the media reports, Telecommunications Ministry officials reiterated Tuesday the presence of such a request at the ministry, according to Fadlallah.
The Daily Star tried to contact embassy officials Tuesday, but they were not available for comment. In a news conference at Parliament, Fadlallah said there are a number of questions that need to be answered before any official decision is taken. “What is the mission of this station? What are its tasks? What are its dangers?” said Fadlallah.
“There is an appetite for the country’s telecoms sector,” he added. The Hezbollah MP said that he was briefed by a number of Telecommunications Ministry officials on the American company’s request during the committee’s meeting but added that more questions would need to be answered in the upcoming session.
“This issue will be discussed fully in the upcoming session, which will probably take place next Thursday in the presence of the telecommunications minister and after we receive the answers from the ministry’s officials,” Fadlallah said. The Bint Jbeil MP also said that the U.S. Embassy might have received a number of permits for installing telecoms stations from the Lebanese government in 2005 after the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon.
“We asked the ministry today to provide us with all documents related to the request and all previous similar requests that were made,” he said. Fadlallah said that he has seen part of the letters that were exchanged between the ministry and the American company on the establishment of such a station in Lebanon. “I think the government is keen on implementing the law in this matter.”
Commenting on the government’s recent standoff with the Internal Security Forces over its request to have full access to the mobile networks’ SMS, Fadlallah said that the ISF backed down because its officials realized the demand was unrealistic. “What the government and the Telecommunications Ministry did was good when they rejected the request and those who made the request backed down because they realized that such a thing cannot pass in Lebanon since it violates the privacy of all Lebanese.” Earlier this month, March 14 submitted a draft proposal to Parliament to grant the ISF Information Branch access to the contents of SMS data.
Officials at the ISF argue that the investigation into the assassination of senior security chief Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan requires a look into the country’s SMS data in the weeks before the assassination.
“Unfortunately, our colleagues [March 14] who submitted the proposal did not attend the session and they obstructed the discussion of the proposal,” said Fadlallah

Lebanon seeks $179 mln to cope with refugees
December 19, 2012/By Hasan Lakkis, Stephen Dockery/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The government is calling for a staggering $179,276,320 to cope with the massive numbers of Syrians in the country in its newly launched response plan that is a belated attempt to reassert its control over aid efforts in a nearly two-year-old crisis.
According to a copy of the government’s donor appeal obtained by The Daily Star and to be released Wednesday, the government is requesting international aid for three ministries and the emergency Higher Relief Commission to bolster social, education and health services for refugees. The financial funding request, which is to be distributed at an international donor’s meeting in Geneva, vastly outstrips the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees operating budget of around $100 million, which is only partially funded. But the hefty request, which includes a call for almost $58 million for displaced Lebanese from Syria, is something the country can’t do without, the report says. “With the escalation of violence, a massive influx of displaced is expected and that requires extensive resources. If these are not made available, then the government of Lebanon is forced to opt for a different approach in dealing with the displaced,” reads the report.
There are currently over 159,000 refugees in the country receiving aid, trough the U.N. Local charities estimate there are thousands more who have not sought assistance.
The government plan would reorganize refugee relief operations under an inter-ministerial committee headed by the prime minister. Four newly empowered government bodies as well as the large international aid community would receive tasks from the committee and be responsible for reporting back to it. Details in the plan give an inside look into how the current government views a problem that has demanded its attention and used up its resources over the past year.
The overview of the plan shows a government willing to help refugees as long as international aid is forthcoming and attitudes about the eventual end of the projects were understood.
“Care should be observed during implementation of any [aid] scheme not to create dependency among displaced communities. It should also be made clear to all concerned that displaced families will be expected to return home after the restoration of peace in Syria,” the report says. An emphasis was put on the toll that large refugee populations were taking on their Lebanese host communities. The brief urged donors to look at the taxed communities in context of the country’s experience with refugees. “Avoiding conflict and maintaining social and political stability steps out as the main concern to the government,” the report says.
The new structure is the government’s attempt to correct what it sees as inequalities in aid distribution that is leaving many people at risk.
“Unfortunately, assistance remains unequal and fragmented in the absence of an overall framework for action,” the report reads. “A remarkable effort is done at the level of the U.N. agencies to elicit such a mechanism, yet it still lacks a governing role expected from the side of the government of Lebanon.” To rectify that problem, roughly $28 million would be allocated for the Social Affairs Ministry, $18 million to the Education Ministry, $75 million to the Health Ministry and $58 million to the Higher Relief Committee. Line item breakdowns of funds also give a broadscale view of the changing needs of the Syrian refugee population as it enters its 22 month of residence in Lebanon. The fact that 75 percent of refugees are women and children, and many others are elderly is clearly reflected in the projections.
Public hospitals are projected to deliver 3,445 newborns, offer 1,120 prostheses for amputees, conduct 86 open-heart operations and offer weekly dialysis to 100 people. In addition, the government is expecting to perform 28,000 other surgeries and offer 20,000 emergency services. Budget allocations for the Education Ministry include money for school expansions, remedial classes for students unfamiliar with Lebanon’s school system and school fees, books and uniforms. The Social Affairs Ministry is expected to provide child protection services, newborn care services and help for the elderly, as well as assist in procuring shelter.
The Higher Relief Committee is tasked with offering food, shelter and basic aid services to around 50,000 displaced Lebanese from Syria. Little information was given on who or where these Lebanese are; previous reports of displaced Lebanese from Syria found local estimates in the hundreds rather than thousands. All of that aid comes in addition to the basic aid services that are being offered through U.N. agencies such as UNCHR and the World Food program, which the government report says will continue to operate in the country.

Plumbly visits Blue Line in wake of ordnance explosion
December 19, 2012 /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly visited South Lebanon Tuesday, including an area along the Blue Line, a day after an explosion in the southern village of Tayr Harfa.
The village’s mayor attributed the explosion, which caused no casualties but shattered windows in at least three houses, to unexploded ordnance fired into Lebanon by Israel in the 2006 war. Hours after the blast Israeli warplanes flew over the area, a frequent occurrence that is in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which formally ended the 2006 war. Plumbly visited the eastern sector of the Blue Line and was briefed by UNIFIL in Lebanon officers on the work of the international force, which comprises 11,585 peacekeepers from 37 different countries, there. The role and capacity of UNIFIL was boosted following the 2006 war. Also Tuesday, Plumbly visited various local development projects and met with officials. “I was very pleased to see how the U.N. and local communities are working together to convert unused lands and render them more productive,” Plumbly said at a meeting with farmers after visiting an agriculture project supported by the United Nations Development Program in Marjayoun. In Shebaa, he was briefed on a sewage project undertaken in the Wastan neighborhood by UNIFIL in cooperation with the local municipality. He met separately with local authorities in Marjayoun and Shebaa, and with members of Parliament in Tyre. During all his meetings, he emphasized the link between security and stability, according to a statement from Plumbly’s office. He said this link was made possible in south Lebanon by the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, and the longer term development of the region

Businesses shutting down in Beirut Central District
December 18, 2012 /By Mohammad El Amin/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Following a year marked by a sharp decline in tourism and an acute economic slowdown, Beirut’s Central District, known for its high-end stores and numerous restaurants, looks set to shed more of its outlets as businesses prepare to close their doors.“Downtown is becoming a ghost town. Come back on Jan. 15 and see for yourself,” says shop-owner Youssef Darwish, who plans to pull the plug on his Maarad jewelery business early next month. Several local businesses confirmed to The Daily Star that at least eight restaurants and several shops will not be renewing their yearly rental contracts next year.
Buddha Bar, Masaya, Hookah, Costa Coffee, Friday’s, Steakhouse, and Class are among businesses that already shut down in 2012.
Closed shops and restaurants in the once-posh streets of the BCD have become a familiar site, and those that are still open hardly make ends meet. Business has been particularly bad in 2012, all interviewed proprietors said.
“We have been on our last leg for the last eight months after business [slumped] in mid-2011. The street is in [crisis] now, and things keep going from bad to worse,” Darwish says.
A stone’s throw away, the manager of Beirut’s famous Place De L’Etoile cafe Hussein Rizk stands on the pavement of the Nijmeh Square overlooking Parliament.
“What can I tell you? I am feeding pigeons instead of tourists,” he comments as he tosses pieces of bread to the birds.
Politics is also seen as another reason behind the decline in business in BCD due to the countless rallies and sit-ins staged in Martyrs Square and Riad al-Solh Square by both the March 8 and March 14 camps since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Labor unions and school teachers have also turned out in big numbers in the area in order to demand higher wages and more benefits. “The whole area has fallen out of favor. Politicians have made it look like a militarized zone instead of a prime touristic area,” Rizk says. “A strike one day and a demonstration [the next], one road closed here and a pathway blocked there. How can you attract tourists and locals under such conditions?” he wonders. In addition to competition from more recent Downtown ventures, including Zaitunay Bay and Beirut Souks, newer dining hotspots in Ashrafieh and Hamra are also behind the sharp fall in business, Rizk argues. Ali Abdul-Wahad, a restaurant manager at Karamna, a Lebanese chain, tells The Daily Star that the only reason they are able to stay alive is due to funds being injected into the business by its Saudi investors. The restaurant has been incurring losses for months, Abdul-Wahad says, explaining that at this level of business it is impossible for the restaurant to cover annual expenses of over $500,000, more than half of which goes to rent. Darwish, burdened by $55,000 in rent a year, says high rental fees are a major setback for local businesses, particularly during politically unstable times. He adds that sales in his small shops plummeted to less than $2,000 a month, leaving him, and many of his neighbors, with little option but to shut down. Admitting that he cut employees’ wages by 30 percent, Darwish says even such severe measures have failed to bring the business back to profitability. He recalls record sales when tourists flocked to the area. “I used to have a turnover of over $100,000 in good months,” he says. “We’ve been only dreaming of a fraction of such a number this year.” Downtown’s restaurants, says Rizk, relied on Gulf tourists for up to 80 percent of their business. Restaurants now receive a small fraction of their former Arab regulars, he adds, after travel warnings were issued by Gulf countries during the summer. The number of tourists entering Lebanon declined by 15.8 percent in the first 10 months of 2012 compared to 2011 and by more than 36 percent, compared to 2010.

Tony Franjieh to run for 2013 elections
December 19, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Tony Franjieh, the son of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, announced Tuesday that he will run for parliamentary elections set for June 2013. Speaking to reporters after visiting Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun at his Rabieh residence, Franjieh said he is running for the polls and that he is coordinating with his father over all issues. Franjieh’s visit to Aoun is the first one to address politics. The 25-year-old Franjieh said he listened to Aoun’s opinion on “rampant corruption in the country,” on electricity, public administration, appointments and the electoral law. Tony would replace his father in a parliamentary seat in Zghorta.

Azerbaijan nabs Iranian agents setting trap for Israel-made drone
http://www.debka.com/article/22620/Azerbaijan-nabs-Iranian-agents-setting-trap-for-Israel-made-drone
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report/ December 17, 2012/debkafile Special: Last week, the Azerbaijani police rounded up six Iranian agents who had infiltrated the country and were looking for the air bases where their government housed the drones purchased from Israel. The spies were found in possession of cash, fake passports, automatic pistols, advanced electronic equipment for tracking aircraft and electronic warfare devices for jamming flying vehicles and down them. Questioning the detainees uncovered an Iranian plot to capture one of the Israel-made UAVs as it flew over the Caspian Sea.
Following the arrests, Azerbaijan barred entry to the Iranian culture attaché serving at the embassy in Baku on his return from home leave in Tehran. No valid reason was offered for this step except that his visa had expired. Azerbaijani investigators were able to establish that he was an undercover agent who was running the captured ring.
The episode which triggered the considerable friction between Baku and Tehran surfaced on Dec. 9 when Iran spread through its media allegations that he US and Israel had stepped up their intelligence surveillance of the Astara Rayon region of southeastern Azerbaijan along the Caspian maritime frontier with Iran.
The Americans were claimed to have expanded the coverage of their radar, while Israel was said to have increased the number of Orbiter ultra-light drones spying on the region, as well as using the 10 Hermes-450 UAVs, made in Israel and recently sold to Azerbaijan. According to Iranian sources, the Hermes drones’ spying operations over the Iranian border are guided by Israeli military satellites.
In Israel, there was little doubt that Tehran was laying the groundwork for an attempt to force down an Israeli-Azerbaijani drone with the same sort of traps used against two American drones – the ScanEagle, which was downed over the Persian Gulf earlier this month, and the MQ 1 Predator which came under fire from two Iranian Air Force SU-25 fighters as it approached the skies over the Bushehr nuclear reactor.
Referring to the ScanEagle, Revolutionary Guards Navy commander Adm. Ali Fadavi said Tuesday, Dec. 4, that one of his units had captured a US drone flying over his forces in the Persian Gulf.
Catching Israeli drones is a challenge of a different order since none fly near Iranian borders. All the same, Tehran was suspected of planning to net one of the drones Azerbaijan bought from Israel and, despite the purchaser’s military markings, present it as the capture of an Israeli spy drone controlled by the Israeli Air Force and military intelligence, MI.
This would have been a feather in Tehran’s cap on a par with its success on Oct. 6 in keeping an Iranian drone, launched by Hizballah from Lebanon, on the loose for two hours in Israeli airspace before it was downed.

Iraq: One Year After Withdrawal
by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi/The American Spectator
December 18, 2012
http://www.meforum.org/3406/iraq-after-withdrawal
One year after the completion of the pullout of American troops from Iraq, what are the main issues affecting the country today?
Russian Arms Scandal and Corruption: On October 9, Iraq announced the signing of a $4.2 billion arms contract with Russia. Commentators took this deal to be a sign of waning U.S. influence in Iraq since the deal — had it gone through — would have drastically reduced Iraqi dependence on American arms supplies.
Thus, when it was announced on November 10 that the deal was scrapped over concerns of corruption, these same commentators (e.g. Michael Weiss) surmised that the cancellation must have somehow been due to U.S. pressure. This sentiment was fueled by the BBC's quoting of a Russian analyst — Igor Korotchenko — at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade. For he speculated: "As far as talk about corruption is concerned, I think it's a smokescreen. I believe this is just a pretext and the true reason is Washington applying pressure on Baghdad."
Moreover, the assumption made by commentators of U.S. influence at work here reflects the excessive tendency to view affairs in Iraq through the eyes of a "Great Game" between foreign powers (cf. the question of Iranian influence in Iraq).
However, as I said on Twitter from the beginning about this matter, such speculation from a Russian pundit is only to be expected in a country where anti-American discourse and conspiracy theories are rife, with a tendency to see a hidden American hand behind any development that negatively affects Russia. Indeed, a spokesperson for Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki quickly made it clear to Russian news agency RIA Novosti that the cancellation of the deal was not due to U.S. pressure. While pundits argued that a shift away from dependence on U.S. arms supplies signified a decline in U.S. influence, it is notable that no one actually quoted an American official expressing concern about the arms deal with Russia back in October, contrasting with the U.S. government's publicly urging Iraq not to allow arms shipments from Iran to Syria to pass through Iraqi territory. Iraq has in fact been buying weapons from Russia for years, and the Americans have never once voiced objections.
The reality is that the fallout over the arms deal does reflect concerns over corruption, and as ever, the nature of personal rivalries in Iraqi politics has come to light, indicating the flaws in a solely sectarian-based paradigm of analysis that views the main ethno-religious groups as only or primarily acting on collective group-based perceptions of interest.
In the case of this fallout over the Russian arms deal, the deep tension between the Iraqi premier and the Sadrists has once again come to the forefront, following on from the talk on multiple occasions in the spring and summer from the leader of the Sadrists — the anti-American Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — of ousting Maliki in a no-confidence vote.
Now, at the center of the tension between Maliki and the Sadrists — who are supposed to be allies in a coalition government — are accusations from the latter that Maliki's son Ahmad has personally profited from the arms scandal. Maliki's spokesperson Ali al-Dabbagh was also accused of being partly responsible for the arms deal scandal, and while he denied any wrongdoing, he nonetheless resigned his position at the end of November.
Sadr had been against the Russian arms deal from the beginning, describing it as a "waste of Iraqi public funds," and has most recently claimed that the arms deal was not about purchasing arms for Iraq at all but rather for unspecified foreign agents, prompting a sharp rebuke from Maliki and in turn triggering Sadrist protests in the Shi'ite holy city of Karbala against the premier.
Corruption remains an endemic problem at all levels of society in Iraq, but the prevalence of the phenomenon does not mean that corruption allegations are never taken seriously.
Similar uproars have arisen over corruption scandals in the Ministry of Electricity, which is still proving inadequate to the task of meeting the large upsurge in demand since 2003 as a result of the increase in the availability of consumer goods. The situation as regards electricity — in which Baghdad is not even meeting 50% of demand — notably contrasts with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north of Iraq that is now able to meet the electricity demands of the vast majority of its population.
Expect the fallout over the Russian arms scandal to continue into next year, as the Sadrists are clearly attempting to exploit it to give themselves an image of vox populi and maximize electoral potential in the upcoming provincial elections in 2013. Ultimately, Sadr's goal is to lead the Shi'ite community in Iraq, and not, as some have speculated, simply function as Iran's mouthpiece and serve Iranian interests in the country.
Maliki and Authoritarianism: There have long been allegations of autocratic tendencies on the part of the Prime Minister, both as regards monopolization of power over institutions and cracking down on voices critical of the government.
The most recent case that can be interpreted as a unilateral power grab is the issuing of an arrest warrant against Sinan Shabibi, who was head of Iraq's Central Bank: a move that was criticized by all of Iraq's political factions, including Maliki's Shi'ite allies in the coalition government (i.e. the Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq).
Here, one should compare with the behavior of Egypt's Islamist and autocratic president Mohamed Morsi and his attempts to consolidate control over the Central Bank in his country, although Maliki's approach is not quite as forward and confrontational as that of Morsi, who unlike Maliki does not have nearly as many sympathizers in the judiciary on whom he can rely to issue verdicts in his favor as regards executive-branch government control of various institutions.
Similar concerns exist for the question of press and academic freedom in Iraq. For instance, individual journalists out on assignment may be subject to arbitrary arrest and other forms of harassment by the security forces. However, it is important to emphasize that — as when looking into allegations of monopolizing control over government institutions — each case must be judged on its own terms, and not reduced to a dogmatic paradigm of analysis.
In this context, take the case of the TV station al-Baghdadia, which is owned by Iraqi exiles residing in Egypt. On November 24, the Iraqi security forces barred it from covering the festival of Ashura in Baghdad, and have most recently compelled the outlet to go off-air, with the Ministry of Interior citing a refusal to sign a list of regulations (unclear as to precisely what) and lack of payment of proper broadcasting fees. The latter allegation also exists against the women's radio station al-Mahaba, which has been compelled to shut down as well.
While it is tempting to see the move against al-Baghdadia as simple intolerance of a media outlet critical of the government (recall that Mundathar al-Zaidi — the journalist who gained international renown for throwing his shoe at George Bush in a meeting with Maliki — worked for this station), a closer analysis should show that there is at least one other factor at play here. The fact is that the station was forced to shut down briefly before for giving a voice on air to the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) terrorists who massacred 52 people in the Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad in October 2010.
In a speech at the opening ceremony marking the restoration of the church this month, Maliki urged the EU not to encourage Iraqi Christians to emigrate. Yet around the same time, on December 13, al-Baghdadia TV broadcast a fatwa by Ayatollah al-Baghdadi (who currently resides in Syria), declaring Iraq's Christians to be "polytheists" and "friends of Zionists" who should either convert to Islam or die. Catholics from Baghdad speaking to AsiaNews said that the fatwa could trigger alarm in some quarters.
From the above evidence, it is reasonable to conclude that at least part of the reason behind the recent shutdown of al-Baghdadia TV is a need on the part of the government to demonstrate some form of commitment to protecting Christians against extremist incitement, even if such a justification for moving against the station has not been declared specifically as an official reason.
For comparison, one should note the uproar triggered when al-Jazeera's Baghdad office was ordered shut for a month in August 2004 by the interim Iraqi government on charges of inciting extremist sentiment.
Kurds, Border Disputes and Violence: Much media attention has focused on the recent build-up of Kurdish Peshmerga militiamen and Iraqi army forces in the disputed areas in the north of Iraq. The build-up began with an incident in the town of Tuz Kharmuto in which there were alleged clashes between Iraqi troops and Kurdish Peshmerga.
Before assuming an impending all-out Arab-Kurd conflict, however, it is important to realize that much of the current tension between Baghdad and the KRG is centered on the personal rivalry between Maliki and KRG premier Massoud Barzani, who not only gave refuge to Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi (handed multiple death sentences on terrorism charges, which — issued as they were in the context of political rivalry between Maliki and Hashemi — nonetheless probably have basis in reality) but also aimed to have Maliki unseated in the efforts to bring about a no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister.
In contrast, Jalal Talabani, who heads the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in coalition with Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party in the KRG, has remained an ally of Maliki: indeed, it was Talabani's indication that he would not support a no-confidence vote that proved most decisive in preserving Maliki's position. When these personal rivalries and alliances are noted, it comes as no surprise that Talabani appears to have played a role in mediating between Baghdad and the KRG and defusing the latest round of brinkmanship.
In fact, as I predicted, the entire affair was brinkmanship all along. It is of course true that much heated rhetoric is thrown around by both sides. For example, Barzani accused Maliki of planning to bomb KRG sites with fighter jets, and has said that all disputed areas should be renamed "Kurdish" areas, while Sami al-Askari — a member of Maliki's State of Law bloc — has threatened war if Exxon Mobil goes ahead with its plans to explore for oil and gas resources in disputed areas following its signing of such contracts with the KRG (considered illegal by Baghdad).
Further, the remnants of the Sunni Arab insurgency — principally al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Baathist Naqshibandi — are attempting to whip up further sectarian tensions in the disputed areas with opportunistic bomb attacks.
Nonetheless, the fact is that both the KRG and Baghdad recognize that an all-out open conflict is not in anyone's interests, and so the heated rhetoric remains no more than just talk. Given a similar incident of brinkmanship on the Syrian border back in the summer, the outcome here was somewhat predictable. All that said, issues like the status of the disputed town of Kirkuk and the establishment of the Tigris Operations Command by the central government in the area seem likely to continue to evade full resolution.
On a concluding note, something should be said about recent speculation on a pending energy deal between the Turkish government and the KRG. According to journalist Ben Van Heuvelen, this deal is essentially as follows: "A new Turkish company, backed by the government, is proposing to drill for oil and gas in Kurdistan and build pipelines to transport those resources to international markets."
Since Baghdad is responsible for supplying most of the KRG's budget, a deal could over the next several years greatly reduce the KRG's financial dependence on the central Iraqi government and prove a significant step towards independence if so desired. One of Turkey's main considerations as regards importing energy resources from Iraqi Kurdistan is the fact that energy demand is rapidly growing in Turkey, and unsurprisingly Ankara feels a need to diversify its range of suppliers.
Yet according to Heuvelen's report, the man responsible for reviewing the alleged pending deal between the KRG and the Turkish government is the Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, who — as journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg notes — has indicated to Turkish newspaper Hurriyet Daily News that no energy deal will be signed without the approval of the Iraqi central government, which would be fiercely opposed to any deal between the KRG and Ankara without prior consultation of Baghdad.
In addition, Turkey has yet to indicate support for any kind of independent Kurdish entity — given the problem of its own restive Kurdish population in the southeast — and despite the generally poor relations with Baghdad, is still committed to the idea of a unified Iraq. In truth, much of the current speculation could be a repeat of the exaggerated media hype in the summer as regards energy negotiations between Turkey and the KRG.
In short, therefore, as leader of the opposition "Gorran" movement in the KRG put it to the Turkish newspaper az-Zaman in a recent interview: "It is the dream of all Kurds to have an independent state. However, one has to take into account the realities of the situation and realize that there is still a lot of work that needs to be done before we can start thinking about independence. So, as it currently stands, I believe it will be some time before we can start considering this realistically."
To conclude, it can be seen that internal politics are generally not given their due when it comes to assessing events inside Iraq. Foreign influence is greatly overplayed, and it is clear how personal rivalries have become deeply intertwined with major issues like corruption.
In general, there is also a tendency to view things too much through the ethno-sectarian paradigm — something that also gives rise to excessive sensationalism. This has been most apparent in the coverage of trends in violence as well as tensions between the KRG and the Iraqi central government. While instability is a great concern, Iraq is hardly "unraveling."
*Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University.