Matthew 18 Who Is the Greatest

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 10/2012

Bible Quotation for today/A Servant's Duty
Luke 17/07-10: "Suppose one of you has a servant who is plowing or looking after the sheep. When he comes in from the field, do you tell him to hurry along and eat his meal? Of course not! Instead, you say to him, Get my supper ready, then put on your apron and wait on me while I eat and drink; after that you may have your meal. The servant does not deserve thanks for obeying orders, does he? It is the same with you; when you have done all you have been told to do, say, We are ordinary servants; we have only done our duty.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The STL, Slowly, but surely/By: Ana Maria Luca/February 09/12
West should strike Syria/By: Merav Betito/February 09/12
Damascus: Like Beirut’s southern suburbs/By Tariq Alhomayed/February 09/12
Russia conspires to salvage Assad rule//By Michael Young/February 09/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 09/12
Muslim Council in Egypt Evicts 8 Christian Families, Seizes Their Property
Syria forces bombard Homs, UN condemns
Harsher IAEA report on Iran nuclear program expected next month
Report: U.S. believes Israel sees Iran nuclear problem 'too narrowly'
'It's best to keep mum on Iran'
US rejects Russia's call for Syria dialogue
First foreign troops in Syria back Homs rebels. Damascus and Moscow at odds
Ban: Arab League to resume monitoring mission in Syria
Russia raise objections at “friends of Syria” grouping
Turkey seeks action to stop massacre
Greek deal prospects rise, euro ministers to meet
Report: Iraq has executed 65 so far in 2012
Barak: Israel Fears Syria Arms Transfers to Hizbullah
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi Al-Rahi Preaches New National Pact to Neutralize Lebanon
Election fever grips Maronite heartland
Bkirki committee may recommend return to 1960 election law
Future bloc MP Khaled Zahraman: Hezbollah beholden to Iran
Hezbollah official Ghaleb Abu Zainab: No animosity toward Kataeb: Hezbollah
March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh says his assassination attempt case linked to Rafik Hariri’s
Hamadeh: 'Unified' STL Indictment Could Be 'Referred' End of Feb
Marten Youssef Says Prosecutor Can Refer Indictment to Pre-Trial Judge Discreetly
Miqati Heads to France to Boost Lebanese-French Relations
Sleiman defends Army as March 14 raps raids
Resumption of Cabinet sessions unlikely before end of February
Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat warns against Syrian attack on North Lebanon
Where to find the best brunches in Beirut
Cabinet crisis complicates budget bid
U.N. dedicated to boosting security in Lebanon
Saniora Meets Qahwaji, Asks Army to 'Protect' Residents of Northern Border Area
World Bank lends Lebanon $200 million for water project
Nationality campaigners vow to fight on despite obstacles
Mikati issues decree for national holiday on Feb. 14
Election fever grips Maronite heartland

Future bloc MP Khaled Zahraman: Hezbollah beholden to Iran
February 09, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Future bloc MP Khaled Zahraman accused Hezbollah Thursday of doing Iran's bidding. “Hezbollah’s political and jurisprudential decisions are not made by Hezbollah but by the Wilayat al-Faqih in Iran,” Zahraman told Future News television channel. “Any other talk is just details.”
Wilayet al-Faqih, or "Guardianship of the Jurist," is the theocratic political system upon which the Islamic Republic of Iran is founded. The philosophy underlying the concept of Wilayet al-Faqih was formulated by Iranian Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini while in exile from his native Iran in the 1970s, and put into effect shortly after his assumption of power in 1979 following the Shah's departure. Zahraman also alleged that Hezbollah cannot make a move in Lebanon without getting Iran’s approval first. Turning to the Lebanese Cabinet crisis, Zahraman said the real dispute is not over public appointments but “goes deeper than that.” Prime Minister Najib Mikati suspended Cabinet meetings earlier this month following a dispute with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun over civil service appointments. Zahraman said procrastination was in the interest of both Mikati and Aoun, “particularly since everyone knows that the government’s survival is in Hezbollah's hands, and Hezbollah wants this government to continue helping the Syrian regime.”He criticized the Lebanese government for providing cover for Syria, in an echo of the Future Movement's claim that Lebanon is failing to confront its larger and more powerful neighbor over its repression of dissent in Syria and its alleged incursions into Lebanon in pursuit of Syrian anti-government protesters.

March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh says his assassination attempt case linked to Rafik Hariri’s
February 8, 2012 /March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh said on Wednesday that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon had informed him that “the case of his attempted assassination is linked to the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.”He also told Future News that the “STL’s indictment may be the same for both cases, and will be submitted before Special Tribunal for Lebanon Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare leaves.”Hamadeh also said that “it is about time [Hezbollah] disassociated itself from the four people indicted by the STL.”The UN-backed tribunal has indicted four Hezbollah operatives for Rafik Hariri’s murder but they have not been handed over to the court. Hamadeh was seriously injured in a car bomb explosion on October 1, 2004. The blast was the first in a series of assassinations that targeted politicians and journalists who spoke against the Syrian army’s presence in Lebanon. In December, Bellemare informed UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that he will not seek reappointment to his post on February 2012. -NOW Lebanon

Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat warns against Syrian attack on North Lebanon
February 9, 2012 /Future bloc MP Ahmad Fatfat warned on Thursday against any Syrian violation of the northern Lebanese border.“There are a number of reports [warning] of the Syrian army’s preparations to cross the northern Lebanese-Syrian border and enter the Akkar town of Wadi Khaled under the pretext of attacking non-existent defecting soldiers,” Faftat said in a statement released by his office.Fatfat also said that “such an act would be an announcement of a war against Lebanon, and must be confronted with a firm and clear stance by the Lebanese government and army.”He also said that “the Lebanese people will not remain silent” on the alleged potential attack, “and will defend their land and blood against the shabeeha [thugs] and brigades of [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad.”The UN says more than 6,000 people have been killed in the crackdown on Syrian protesters who have been demonstrating against the Baath regime since March 2011. Thousands have fled into Lebanon in recent months.Lebanon’s political scene is split between supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, led by Hezbollah, and the pro-Western March 14 camp.
-NOW Lebanon

Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi Al-Rahi Preaches New National Pact to Neutralize Lebanon
by Naharnet /Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi reiterated on the occasion of St. Maroun Day on Thursday his call for the adoption of a new social pact to renew the national pact of 1943.
During a sermon at the St. George Cathedral in downtown Beirut, al-Rahi said the new pact would be based on mutual respect, equality and cooperation that would neutralize Lebanon and steer it clear of regional and international axes.The national pact is an agreement that laid the foundation of Lebanon as a multi-confessional state. Al-Rahi reiterated the need for dialogue among religions mainly with Muslims, saying “the apostolic exhortation reminds us that the advancement of Lebanon is a joint mission.”“We should preserve cooperation, equality and balance among the different components of the Lebanese society in accordance with the constitution and its spirit,” he said.The mass was attended by President Michel Suleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri, Premier Najib Miqati and other top officials.
The patriarch also called in his sermon for commitment to the improvement of people’s rights at the economic and social levels.“Lebanon’s glory could only be achieved through the unity of its people and their coexistence,” al-Rahi said. He finally urged Maronites to preserve the value of openness to the world.St. Maroun was a 5th century monk who after his death was followed by a religious movement that became known as the Maronites. His holiness and miracles attracted many followers.After his death in the year 410, his spirit and teachings lived on through his disciples. He is buried in Brad village, north of the Syrian city of Aleppo.

Hezbollah official Ghaleb Abu Zainab: No animosity toward Kataeb: Hezbollah
February 09, 2012 / The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Hezbollah official Ghaleb Abu Zainab said Hezbollah harbors no animosity toward the Kataeb Party despite their differences over Hezbollah's arms.
“We don’t see the Kataeb as hostile to us,” Abu Zainab told As-Safir newspaper in remarks published Thursday.He hailed the Kataeb’s vision of “coexistence regardless of political rhetoric.”
"Despite all the political points of contention between us and the obvious distance between us over how to approach the issue of weapons, we look at the Kataeb Party positively,” said Abu Zainab, who is a member of Hezbollah’s Political Council. “It is possible for us to converge on a lot of issues,” he added.Kataeb Party leader Amin Gemayel has repeatedly attacked Hezbollah over its arms arsenal.

Bkirki committee may recommend return to 1960 election law
February 09, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: In the wake of strong rejection of an electoral law proposed by the Orthodox Gathering, chances are reportedly high for a return to the 1960 election law.
Quoting Christian political sources, Al-Markazia News Agency said Bkirki committee members were preparing a detailed report on the outcome of their talks with various political parties on an election plan proposed by the Orthodox Gathering. Members of the committee, set up by the Maronite Church in Bkriki to follow up on election draft laws, will present their report to Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai.
The sources said the Bkirki committee was moving toward agreement on a return to the 1960 election law given the failure of the Orthodox plan to gain traction.
While the law of 1960 adopts the qada as an electoral district and was used in the 2009 elections, the Orthodox Gathering proposal stipulates that each sect elect its own candidates based on proportional representation. However, the Orthodox plan has drawn fire because it could further deepen sectarianism. Head of the Future parliamentary bloc Fouad Siniora was quoted as saying Thursday that, if passed into law, the Orthodox plan would sow divisions among the Lebanese. “The Orthodox plan pushes the country into a deeper split and won’t achieve the desired goals,” Siniora was quoted by pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat as saying. Rai, for his part, has warned against a return to the 1960 election law and said such a move would be “shameful” given the fundamental changes and developments that have taken place in Lebanon. Top politicians are discussing a new law for the 2013 round of elections. Bkirki endorsed the Orthodox Gathering’s election proposal, but stressed the need to hold a dialogue with the rest of the Lebanese factions on the issue.

Miqati Heads to France to Boost Lebanese-French Relations
by Naharnet /Prime Minister Najib Miqati heads to France on Thursday on a three-day visit to meet with senior officials amid a cabinet crisis locally.The premier will discuss with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, PM Francois Fillon, and Foreign Minister Alain Juppe the developments in the region and Lebanon, the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and bilateral relations, sources told al-Liwaa newspaper.They noted that Miqati will tackle in Paris military aid to the army. According to the sources, the French officials will confirm their commitment to the UNIFIL. Discussions will also tackle the investigations on the attacks on a number of French soldiers in 2011.10 French UNIFIL troops were injured in two separate roadside bomb attacks in 2011, one near Sidon in July, and one near Tyre in December.Concerning the developments in Syria, French officials are expected to call on Central Bank governor Riyad Salameh, who is currently in Paris and expected to join Miqati, to urge Lebanese banks to abide by the European Union sanctions on Syria.

Election fever grips Maronite heartland
February 09, 2012/Antoine Ghattas Saab/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: It is not surprising that Kesrouan draws much attention from Christian leaders, especially in the run-up to municipal and parliamentary elections. Kesrouan is overwhelmingly Maronite, and as a result in 2005 and 2009 fierce electoral battles were waged in the district, whose residents are known for their preference for homegrown politicians who are dedicated to the area.
The district has witnessed significant political posturing between the country’s two major Christians sides, the Free Patriotric Movement, which won the majority of Kesrouan’s five parliamentary seats in the previous two elections, and the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb (Phalange) Party and independent Christian officials.
With parliamentary elections about a year-and-a-half away, these divisions – as well as the disputes they ignite – seem likely to continue, even if the names of the candidates are different from previous years.
A quick look at current political attitudes in Kesrouan shows that the FPM still has popular support, even if it is not at the same levels as five years ago. Supporters of FPM leader Michel Aoun still subscribe to his viewpoints, especially his alliance with the resistance, his stance against corruption and his efforts to change the composition of the Cabinet, despite his party’s many ministers.
On the other side of the divide, the LF is seeking to reorganize itself, a process that is being led by Shawqi Dakkash, a party official in Kesrouan who was a candidate in the 2005 parliamentary elections. There were reports that LF leader Samir Geagea made a statement that he would personally supervise the party’s campaign in Kesrouan in 2013, but this was denied by Dakkash.
Dakkash said that “preparations have already started, and a meeting took place in Merab between Geagea and Kesrouan mayors and mukhtars, who voiced their admiration for the LF leader’s participation, regardless of his specific political views.”
He added that during the meeting, Geagea focused mainly on Fouad Shehab, a famous political official who hailed from Kesrouan, and whom Geagea described as a “man of institutions.” According to Dakkash, this meant that “the Lebanese Forces are reasserting their commitment to the project of the state as the only guarantee for domestic relations between political forces, and the only thing that can be trusted to ensure public order and the work of public institutions.”
As for the Kataeb Party, its Kesrouan campaign is being run by Sajaan Qazzi, a member of the politburo who according to sources has a rocky relationship with the LF over some minor differences in opinion.
The framework for the alliance between the two parties is based on March 14’s guiding principles, which include working to establish a strong state whose authority extends across the country, the belief that Hezbollah’s arms should be turned over to the Lebanese Army, and commitment to international justice, including the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The parties’ commitment to these major principles remains strong, but sometimes politics take priority and some partisans speak of a kind of estrangement between the two over the old disputes on Christian leadership.
Meanwhile, a new generation of candidates are looking to throw their hats into the ring. Among them is engineer Wissam Baroudi, who said that he was studying the political climate to help him secure victory.
Baroudi already has good name recognition as the son-in-law of President Michel Sleiman.
He said his electoral program will focus on both politics and development, and that he has not decided with whom to ally. “If March 14 forces find that they can campaign without alliances with independent candidates, they will not come to me and say, ‘We want to ally with you,’” he said, adding that he was not waiting for an alliance with any particular political group.
Most Kesrouan residents have grown weary of the same political speeches, which focus more on slogans than on action, and perhaps for this reason the district supports independent politicians, including former MPs Farid Khazen, Fares Boueiz, Mansour al-Bon, and Camille Ziadeh, who stand opposed to Aoun with their own bases of popular support.

'It's best to keep mum on Iran'
Yitzhak Benhorin Published: 02.09.12, 10:48 / Israel News
NYT says Washington officials are unhappy with Barak's statements about Iran's nuclear facilities becoming impregnable; US insists that West should afford sanctions, covert actions more time to work
WASHINGTON – The American administration is frustrated with Defense Minister Ehud Barak's recent outspoken concerns over whether the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities are on the verge of becoming impregnable, the New York Time reported Thursday.
Barak recently coined the phrase "zone of immunity" – referring to the circumstances under which Israel would no longer be willing or able to delay an attack meant to cripple Tehran's growing hunger for nuclear weapons. But according to the report, "judging when that moment will arrive has set off an intense debate with the Obama administration, whose officials counter that there are other ways to make Iran vulnerable."
The newspaper also reported that US President Barack Obama has been able to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to afford some time for the international sanctions imposed on Iran to work. Washington insists that Israel and the West "have more time and should allow sanctions and covert actions to deter Iran’s plans."
The report said that the difference of opinion between Israel and the US over Iran's "immunity" against a strike is critical, "because it plays into not just the timing – or bluffing – about a possible military strike, but the calculations about how deeply and quickly sanctions against Iran must bite." A top Obama administration official told NYT that "'Zone of immunity' is an ill-defined term," adding that the White House was frustrated with Israel's "narrow view of the Iranian issue." At its core, the official said, "The argument the Israelis make is that once the Iranians get an impregnable breakout capability – that is, a place that is protected from a military strike – it will make no difference whether it will take Iran six months or a year or five years to create a nuclear weapon."
"There are many other options to slow Iran’s march towards a completed weapon," a second official said. "Like shutting off Iran’s oil revenues, taking out facilities that supply centrifuge parts or singling out installations where the Iranians would turn the fuel into a weapon."
Sources in the US administration welcomed Netanyahu's approach to the Iranian threat and his order to the cabinet ministers to keep stay mum on the subject. "That's very good advice," a Washington source said."

Harsher IAEA report on Iran nuclear program expected next month
By Amos Harel /Jaaretz
Upcoming follow-up report apparently includes new details about efforts by Tehran to develop nuclear warheads for ground-to-ground missiles.
Get Haaretz on iPhone Get Haaretz on Android An upcoming report to be issued next month by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear program is expected to be harsher than the last one, which the IAEA released in November. That document provided the main basis for stiffer international sanctions against the Islamic republic, including the complete oil embargo by the European Union that is to be imposed as of July.
Additional revelations by the IAEA could be the basis for even harsher international sanctions against Iran.
The agency's board of governors is scheduled to convene on March 5 in Vienna, the same day on which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to give a speech in Washington at a meeting of the annual policy conference of the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. While in the United States, Netanyahu is expected to meet with President Barack Obama for talks that will to a large extent be devoted to the international response to the threat from Iran.
The upcoming follow-up report from the IAEA will apparently include new details about the effort by Tehran to develop a nuclear warhead for a ground-to-ground missile. Last week an IAEA delegation visited Tehran for another round of talks with Iranian authorities. Western diplomats told news agency reporters in Vienna, where the organization is based, that the Iranian visit was a total failure.
The diplomats told the Reuters news agency that the delegation again asked the Iranians to give inspectors access to visit the military facility at Parchin, southeast of Tehran, but the Iranians refrained from responding to the request. Parchin is thought to be a main site of the weapons program. According to the same sources, after two days in which there appeared to be some progress in the talks, the Iranians began deliberately stalling - under the guise of changing the rules for the discussions - and he visit accomplished nothing.
An IAEA delegation will return to Tehran for another round of discussions on February 21, and IAEA chairman Yukiya Amano said in an official statement that the agency is "committed to intensifying dialogue" with Iran over its nuclear program. At the beginning of the week, President Obama signed an order stiffening American sanctions on the Iranian central bank, in another significant step against Iran. This step came about two weeks after the Europeans announced their oil embargo.
It appears that at least some of the comments about the Iranian issue made Israeli leaders in recent weeks are timed for the run-up to the IAEA board of governors meeting.

Muslim Council in Egypt Evicts 8 Christian Families, Seizes Their Property
2-9-2012
Assyrian International News Agency
(AINA) -- National and international rights groups have consistently criticized the recourse to the so-called "reconciliation meetings" -- dubbed "Bedouin sittings" -- that take place between Copts and Muslim assailant after every attack on Copts. The meetings are conducted under the auspices of state security. Last week a series of meetings were held by radical Muslims to decide on the fate of the Copts in a village in Alexandria, and Muslims insisted that the whole Coptic population of 62 families must be deported because of an unsubstantiated accusation levied against one Coptic man.
Copts in the village of Kobry-el-Sharbat (El-Ameriya), Alexandria, were attacked on January 27 by a mob of 3000 Muslims led by Salafi leaders, who looted and torched homes and shops belonging to Copts. The violence was prompted by allegations made by a Muslim barber named Toemah that a 34-year-old Coptic tailor, Mourad Samy Guirgis, had on his mobile phone illicit photos of a Muslim woman. Mourad denied the accusation and surrendered to the police for fear for his life. Muslims looted and torched his workshop and home after he surrendered to the police, and his entire family, including his parents and his married brother Romany, were evicted from the village. He is still in police detention. (AINA 1-28-2012).
Three "reconciliation meetings" were held at the El-Ameriya village police headquarters. They were attended by Salafi and Muslim Brotherhood representatives from neighboring villages, as well as church representative. Muslims demanded the eviction of all Coptic inhabitants from the village because "Muslim honour had been damaged."
Many believe that the mobile phone story was fabricated as an excuse to start violence against the Copts. According to the police, the woman in question denied the story and no photos were found on Mourad's mobile phone, according to Ihab Aziz, a Coptic-American activist who is presently in Egypt.
During the first reconciliation meeting it was agreed that only Copts who were directly involved with the Mourad incident would be evicted, and the church demanded compensation of two million pounds for the innocent Copts whose homes and businesses were torched on January 27. Muslims, especially Salafis from the neighboring villages, refused any kind of compensation and insisted on the eviction of all Copts.
On January 30 a Muslim mob attacked Copts in Kobry-el-Sharbat for the second time, and torched three Coptic homes in the presence of the security forces, "which took the role of an onlooker and made no effort to stop the violence," according to Joseph Malak, lawyer for the Coptic church in Alexandria. "This proves that the assailants were not afraid of the security forces or the law."
Muslim representatives demanded the eviction of the wealthy Coptic merchant Abeskhayroun Soliman, together with his four married sons and their families, accusing them of causing sedition by shooting in the air when Muslims broke into and torched their home while the family was inside. "No one was wounded due to the alleged shootings, which the family says never took place. The police authorities issued an arrest warrant for two of the Soliman sons," said Ihab Aziz.
The Solimans have been in hiding with a Muslim family which saved them from their burning homes, and is presently giving them protection. Muslims threatened that if eight Coptic families were not evicted by February 3rd, all remaining 54 Coptic families in the village would be subjected to violence after Friday prayers. They called it "Friday of Eviction" and "Friday of Clean-up."
On Wednesday February 1, a hastily organized reconciliation meeting was arranged by security authorities, and was attended by Ebeskharion Soliman and one of his sons.
The terms of the agreement which resulted were:
eviction of eight Coptic families, namely three of the Mourad families, in addition to five Soliman families.
selling of the assets of the wealthy Abeskhayron Soliman family within three months by a committee, under the supervision of Salafi shaikh Sherif el Hawary. Soliman has no right to get involved in the sale or even accompany a prospective buyer.
the Committee is to collect any money accrued from the sale of his land, properties, businesses as well as collect promissory notes pending from business transactions by the Soliman-owned chain of stores.
in case of non-implementation of this Agreement, all Copts in the Kobry-el-Sharbat village will be attacked, their homes and property completely torched.
Abeskhayron Soliman signed the agreement, which most Copts viewed as "humiliating."
Father Boktor, who attended the meeting, described the reconciliation agreement as "utter injustice."
Wissa Fawzi, member of the Maspero Coptic Youth Union in Alexandria, said that Soliman has nothing at all to do with the Mourad story, but signed the agreement to save his family and the Copts in the village, "otherwise there would have been a massacre of the Copts on that Friday." He said that Security authorities pressured Soliman into accepting the terms of the agreement by threatening him with refusal of police protection for him and his family. "What constitutes the real crisis is the complicity of security officials in the process of displacement," said Fawzi.
Copts in Kobry-el-Sharbat were stunned after hearing the news of the eviction of the "top Copt" in their community, whose wealth is estimated at more than 20,000,000 Egyptian pounds. "There is a feeling of humiliation and being completely under the mercy of the radical Muslims," said Rami Khashfa of the Alexandria Maspero Youth Union "they are terrorized and are scared of the future. Copts in the neighboring villages are also scared." He said that Copts in the village are thinking of moving elsewhere.
Speaking on US-based Christian TV channel Al-Karma, Magdy Khalil, head of the Middle East Freedom Forum, said that reconciliation meetings made up of Salafis and members of the Muslim Brotherhood, and arranged by security officials are illegal and forced eviction is one of the crimes under international law. "Who gave them the right to form a committee headed by a Salafi to sell Christian property? This is thuggery and blatant targeting of Copts."
Khalil called on the Coptic Melli Council, which is the civilian body that represents Copts in the Egyptian State, to protest this agreement and ask for the return of the Copts to their homes. "If we accept it, this will open the door for an avalanche of forced evictions." He believes that radical Muslim have a bigger plan they hope to achieve by terrorizing the Copts, namely displacing and dispersing them from places with high Coptic population density, taking their property and weakening them economically.
Ihab Aziz, like many others, believes that "Coptic capital" is targeted everywhere in Egypt. He said that members of the Egyptian parliament have been made aware of the El-Ameriya forced displacement, and the issue will be brought before parliament shortly.
By Mary Abdelmassih
http://www.aina.org/news/20120208194830.htm
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First foreign troops in Syria back Homs rebels. Damascus and Moscow at odds
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 8, 2012/British and Qatari special operations units are operating with rebel forces under cover in the Syrian city of Homs just 162 kilometers from Damascus, according to debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources. The foreign troops are not engaged in direct combat with the Syrian forces bombarding different parts of Syria's third largest city of 1.2 million. They are tactical advisers, manage rebel communications lines and relay their requests for arms, ammo, fighters and logistical aid to outside suppliers, mostly in Turkey.
This site is the first to report the presence of foreign military forces in any of the Syrian uprising's embattled areas.
Our sources report the two foreign contingents have set up four centers of operation - in the northern Homs district of Khaldiya, Bab Amro in the east, and Bab Derib and Rastan in the north. Each district is home to about a quarter of a million people.
More details as they unfold will be available in the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue out Friday.
Our military sources also report that Wednesday afternoon, Feb. 8, Assad sent the 40th Mechanized Brigade of heavy T-72 tanks to Homs for an all-out effort to beat the rebellion, counter the foreign contingents and reinforce the 90th Infantry Brigade commanded by his kinsman, Gen. Zuhair al-Assad, the backbone of the military force battering the city for the past five days at the cost of hundreds of dead. The presence of the British and Qatari troops was seized on by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan for the new plan he unveiled to parliament in Ankara Tuesday, Feb. 7. Treating the British-Qatari contingents as the first foreign foot wedged through the Syrian door, his plan hinges on consigning a new Turkish-Arab force to Homs through that door and under the protection of those contingents. Later, they would go to additional flashpoint cities.
In the close to eleven months of the Syrian revolt, Erdogan has hatched more than one scheme for countering the Assad regime's savage crackdown on dissent. His most persistent was a plan for the creation of military buffer zones to shelter rebels and civilians persecuted by the Syrian authorities. But nothing came of those plans because, every time they came up, Assad reinforced his contingents on the Turkish border and deployed air defense and surface-to-surface missile batteries. He made it clear that the first Turk crossing the border would spark a full-scale war.
It is hard to say at this point whether the latest Turkish leader's current plan is any more practical than his earlier schemes. For now, he has put the ball in the American court. Wednesday, Feb. 8, he sent Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Washington to ask for the Obama administration's cooperation. The Turkish prime minister is also in urgent consultation with Saudi and several other Gulf rulers in the hope of bringing them aboard.
The British-Qatari troop presence in Homs was at the center of Assad's talks in Damascus Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov. Senior Syrian intelligence officers laid their updates from the field before the Russian visitors and received SVR data and evaluations in return.
Western intelligence officials familiar with the talks describe the atmosphere between Assad and the Russian officials as uneasy and tense. Later, Lavrov reported optimistically that he had received assurances from the Syrian ruler of an end to the violence, talks with all Syrian parties and an early referendum on a new constitution for political reforms. His account was no more than prevarication to conceal the opposite outcome of their talks. In fact, their conversation focused on more violence, namely, Assad's plans for his next assault on rebels and protesters and his military response to the rising covert presence of foreign Western, Arab and Muslim troops in Syria.

US rejects Russia's call for Syria dialogue
February 8, 2012 /The White House on Wednesday rejected Russia's call for talks between President Bashar al-Assad's government and Syrian rebels who are reeling under a brutal assault from government forces. "From the [earliest] days of this situation in Syria, there was an opportunity for the Assad regime to engage in dialogue with the opposition," said White House spokesperson Jay Carney."Rather than take that opportunity, Assad brutally cracked down on his own people. We don't think that that opportunity is available anymore. "It is clear that Assad has chosen a path and that choice has resulted in the deaths of many Syrians, including innocent children."
Russia called for talks between Assad and the opposition when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Syria on Tuesday, after Moscow and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution saying Assad should step down. Carney criticized Lavrov's mission, saying he was not sure "what the purpose was."
"What is clear is that siding with the Assad regime at this stage will not get Russia anything except for the alienation of the Syrian people," he said.
After Tuesday's talks, Lavrov said Russia was prepared to work to end the crisis under a peace plan put forward by the Arab League and that Assad was ready for dialogue with all political forces. The Obama administration has proudly touted its "reset" of relations with Russia, but Moscow's refusal to join efforts to push Assad aside has severely strained relations with the United States. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday against behaving "like a bull in a china shop," saying Syrians themselves should be allowed to decide their own fate. Carney reiterated that the United States was interested in working with its partners abroad to provide humanitarian aid to Syria, but added that it was not established yet how such a mission should work. And he also repeated that Washington was looking to solve the agony of Syria's people with a political solution -- rather than by military means, following some calls for Washington to help arm the rebels. "We never rule anything out in a situation like this, but we are pursuing a path that includes isolating and pressuring the Assad regime so that it stops its heinous slaughtering of its own people," Carney said. "You know, in the coming days, we will continue our very active discussions with friends and allies who support the Syrian people ... to crystallize the international community's next steps in that effort to halt the slaughter of the Syrian people and to pursue that transition to democracy."
-AFP/NOW Lebanon

West should strike Syria
Merav Betito/Ynetnews
Op-ed: Just like it failed to bomb Auschwitz, world is doing nothing in face of Syria massacre
Russia and China, Cinderella’s two evil sisters, are showing fake concern and managing to drive away the prince, yet another helpless man who would say “I tried, I really did,” while the corpses are piling up around him. These evil sisters are protecting their tortured, suffering “sister” from being subjected to the global conscience, which went to sleep and has not woken up yet since World War II, when the allies debated whether to bomb Auschwitz
And so, shamelessly, Russia and China are safeguarding a simple economic interest: As long as the foolish Assad needs arms in order to massacre his subjects, Russia and China will provide him with more and more bombs that would make the slaughter mission easier. This arrangement is convenient for all sides: For the silent, defeated Western world, for the mass murderer in Syria, and for the interested parties on the other side of the globe, far away from the commotion.
While teaching history classes as a high school teacher, there was one question I was never able to provide a real answer for: How come the world knew but kept silent? The real answer, of course, is that it was convenient. However, my students, as students tend to do, did not settle for this answer and sought additional motives.
Assad a dead man walking
Forget about it, I told them. The world finds it convenient to cave in under the guise of diplomatic agreements finalized in air-conditioned rooms at the institution set up in the wake of World War II: The United Nations. I also explained that this body was established in order to put an end to wars between states and provide a platform for international dialogue. Assad is a dead man walking, and one can already imagine his body hanging in the main square in the city of the aching, bleeding Homs. I pray that the idiot will let his young children flee before the masses butcher them as well.
A moment before it’s too late, Western countries must strike Syria. The cries of the wounded are resonating from the radio and the horrific videos are being aired on newscasts. However, the world continues to cling to the tradition of deafness and muteness – because it’s convenient; because there are a thousand other problems to deal with; because China and Russia used their veto.

Ban: Arab League to resume monitoring mission in Syria
By REUTERS AND JPOST.COM STAFF
Announcement follows widespread violence in Homs resulting in up to 100 killed; Arab League chief has said that new mission would be stronger in numbers, equipment; Ban also urges Israel, PA to submit peace proposals. UNITED NATIONS - UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Wednesday that the Arab League chief told him he intends to revive an Arab League monitoring mission in Syria, which has collapsed amid continuing violence there.
Nabil Elaraby asked for UN help with the project during a telephone conversation on Tuesday, Ban told reporters after briefing the UN Security Council on a visit he just paid to the Middle East.
Elaraby further proposed a joint UN-Arab League observer mission, including a joint special envoy, for Syria, where a harsh crackdown on an 11-month-old uprising has left thousands dead, according to UN figures. Ban said the United Nations was ready to help, but indicated no decision had been taken.
Elaraby "informed me that he intends to send the Arab League observer mission back to Syria and asked for UN help," the UN chief said.
The mission first went to Syria in December, reaching a strength of 165 members, but the Arab League suspended it on January 28 because of worsening violence, although it did not wind it up. Six Gulf Arab states, Jordan and Morocco have pulled out their teams, but other members are still in Syria.
Elaraby told Reuters in an interview in Cairo on Monday that a new mission could be sent but under differ
"If we are going to send another mission, and we are contemplating that, it has to be stronger in numbers and in equipment. The mandate has to be different," he said, adding it would need international not just Arab backing this time.
Arab foreign ministers have been planning to meet on Sunday to discuss the fate of the monitoring mission. It was not immediately clear whether the plan to revive the mission would go ahead anyway.
Ban said that "in the coming days we will further consult the (Security) Council before fleshing out details. We stand ready to assist in any way that will contribute towards improvement on the ground and to the overall situation." "No detailed discussions have taken place yet. We will have to discuss with the Arab League on detailed matters," he said later in reply to questions.
Ban did not say what help the United Nations might give. UN diplomats and officials have spoken in the past of possible training of monitors.
Elaraby said this week any new monitoring mission would require Syria's approval.
A Security Council diplomat said discussion of any UN involvement was at an early stage. "I think what we would want to see would be a mission that was really making a difference, not just standing by and watching people being killed," said the diplomat, who asked not to be identified.
Turning to Israel-PA negotiations, Ban repeated his position that an agreement can be reached despite a recent Hamas-Fatah reconciliation agreement. "I believe that Palestinian reconciliation and negotiations with Israel need not be mutually exclusive," he said.
Ban also urged the two sides to submit concrete proposals on security and territory. "Goodwill gestures and positive facts on the ground will go a long way toward setting the stage for progress in the negotiations."
In response to a question about the timing of negotiations, Ban said "while the situation may look fragile and volatile in the region, this is the right moment to enter into negotiations to promote peace and stability in the region."

Slowly, but surely
Ana Maria Luca, February 8, 2012
A trial with an empty dock, four indicted men still at large, new indictments on the way and a search for a new prosecutor. The proceedings of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon—the court meant to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and other attacks linked to it—continue slowly, but surely. The STL might not be the big news in the Middle East right now, but it is the explosive political situation in the region that seems to favor the court’s work. With the STL’s two most vocal critics, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, weakened and under pressure, the tribunal based in the Hague found the opportunity to move on with its work.
Darina Saliba, a professor of International Law at the Lebanese American University, believes there are several factors influencing the STL’s proceedings, namely Hezbollah being busy trying to hold the Lebanese cabinet together, and the Syrian regime preoccupied with fending off the uprising in the country. Indeed, the proceedings of the trial in absentia have already begun, with eight Lebanese and international defense lawyers appointed for the accused last week. Lebanon is also set to renew its agreement with the tribunal in March.
According to STL spokesperson Marten Youssef, holding a trial in absentia is fair, in spite of the criticism that the accused won’t be able to defend themselves. “We have to remember that the STL is applying the Lebanese law, not international law. This is what we agreed on. To say that a trial in absentia is not fair means to question the fairness of all trials in absentia in the Lebanese justice system,” he pointed out. “There are mechanisms in the justice system that ensure the fairness of the trial. The Defense Council has all the rights to investigate, present evidence, call on witnesses and make sure the rights of the accused are respected,” he added. Also, there is still a chance that the accused can be retried in case they show up in person, Saliba noted. “However if the accused decide to show up during the proceedings, the trial has to restart in their presence,” she said, noting several scenarios of what may occur during the in absentia proceedings. “The accused may not agree with the sentence, they may request for another hearing, they may request a re-trial, or they may attack the sentence if they don’t agree with it.”
According to Youssef, the search for the four accused men is not over yet. Lebanese authorities send reports on their efforts to apprehend the four every month to the Hague. “The Lebanese authorities are cooperating with the STL, they’ve always done that. At the moment they haven’t found them in Lebanon, but we also have no proof that they left the country,” Youssef said.
Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare reportedly said that a new indictment will be out by the end of February, although he did not say whether it would be kept confidential or not. According to Youssef, the prosecutor is the one who decides when to issue an indictment and whether he makes it public or not. “We always said that the investigation is ongoing,” he pointed out.
He also added that all assassinations that happened after December 2005, when the mandate of the tribunal ends, can only be investigated after the prosecutor submits a request to the UN Secretary General, which has to discuss the investigation with the Lebanese government. The process might take time.
But most victims of political violence still have hope. Journalist May Chidiac, who was wounded in an assassination attempt in 2005, told NOW Lebanon that she didn’t believe her case would be disregarded. The two other cases from that year—Marwan Hamadeh and Elias al-Murr—were deemed related to the Hariri murder. “Some of the cases are related [to the Hariri murder] in terms of planning and execution, others in terms of who gave the order,” she said. According to Saliba it also comes down to politics: the STL proceedings being sped up is very much related to how strong the government in Beirut is and the fate of the Syrian regime. “The crisis in Syria definitely has an impact on the situation in Lebanon. The uprising may harden Hezbollah’s position. [Hezbollah’s] desire at this time, to maintain the cabinet, overtakes all other objectives. It obviously all depends on how the Syrian uprising is progressing,” she said.

Russia demurs at “friends of Syria” grouping
February 9, 2012 /Russia said Thursday it took a cautious view of US-backed attempts to forge a "friends of Syria" coalition that may soon meet in Turkey to coordinate humanitarian assistance for the embattled opposition.The Russian Foreign Ministry's chief spokesperson said the idea appeared similar to the grouping of like-minded nations that Washington forged in advance of an air campaign on Libya that Russia strongly opposed. "We take a generally cautious view of formats that we do not believe are legitimate for dealing with specific international disputes," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Alexander Lukashevich told a weekly briefing. "We have had very bad experience working in such formats, and take a cautious attitude to various contact groups and groups of friends," said Lukashevich.
"As you remember, we had such unsuccessful experience in Libya."He added that Russia remained opposed to any coalitions whose job was to "introduce foreign intervention" in another nation's internal affairs.US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week said she backed the coalition idea as the death toll spirals from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's domestic crackdown.
Turkey on Wednesday said it planned to hold a meeting "as soon as possible" to forge a common approach between regional players and world powers towards the crisis.
A US State Department official said the proposed Turkish meeting was "part and parcel" of efforts to form the "friends of Syria" group.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Syria forces bombard Homs, UN condemns
09/02/2012/AMMAN/BEIRUT, (Reuters) - Syrian forces bombarded opposition-held neighbourhoods of the city of Homs with rocket and mortar fire on Thursday, activists said, as divided world powers struggled to find a way to end the violence.The United Nations chief condemned the ferocity of the government assault on Homs, heart of a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad that broke out nearly a year ago and is getting bloodier by the day."I fear that the appalling brutality we are witnessing in Homs, with heavy weapons firing into civilian neighbourhoods, is a grim harbinger of things to come," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told reporters after briefing the Security Council. Activists and residents report hundreds of people killed over the last week as Assad's forces try stamp out opposition in Homs, and as dawn broke on Thursday, rocket and mortar fire rained down again on Baba Amro, Khalidiya and other districts. Armoured reinforcements also poured into the eastern city.
Concern was growing over the plight of civilians and the United States said it was considering ways to get food and medicine to them - a move that would deepen international involvement in a conflict which has wide geopolitical dimensions and has caused division between foreign powers. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said before flying to Washington for talks on Syria that Turkey, which once saw Assad as an ally but now wants him out, could no longer stand by and watch. Turkey wanted to host an international meeting to agree ways to end the killing and provide aid, he said.
"It is not enough being an observer," he told Reuters, though Russia and China have warned against "interference". Foreign ministers of the Arab League, which the U.N.'s Ban said was planning to revive an observer mission it suspended last month because of the violence, are due to meet in Cairo on Sunday. They may want to hear other governments' ideas by then.
U.S. officials said they expected to meet soon with allies to discuss ways of helping Syrian civilians. And China, cool to Western lobbying for international involvement, nonetheless reported its first formal contact with the Syrian opposition.
HOMS UNDER FIRE
The Syrian Revolution Coordinating Commission said at least 30 civilians in Homs were killed in bombardment on Thursday morning on mainly Sunni Muslim neighbourhoods that have been the focus of attacks by the government forces led largely by members of Assad's Alawite religious minority. Such sectarian divisions have been coming to the surface as killings have increased on either side of the conflict.
The main street in Baba Amro was strewn with rubble and at least one house was destroyed, according to YouTube footage broadcast by activists from the district who said troops had used anti-aircraft cannon to demolish the building. The video showed a youth putting two bodies wrapped in blankets in a truck. What appeared to be body parts were shown inside the house.
The Syrian Human Rights Organisation (Sawasiah)said in a statement that this week's assault on Homs had killed at least 300 civilians and wounded 1,000, not counting Thursday's toll.
International officials have estimated the overall death toll in Syria since last March at over 5,000.
Activists said neighbourhoods of Homs remained without electricity and water and basic supplies were running low.
There was no comment from the Syrian authorities, who have placed tight restrictions on access to the country and it was not possible to verify the reports of local activists.
Mazen Adi, a prominent Syrian opposition figure in Paris, said rebels loosely organised under the Free Syrian Army were fighting back and staging hit-and-run guerrilla attacks against government forces in Homs.
"The regime cannot keep tanks for long inside opposition neighbourhoods because they will be ambushed," he said.
"It is retaliating by hysterical bombing that is killing mostly civilians and with mass executions."
The role of the Free Syrian Army, largely made up of soldiers who have defected from the government forces, highlighted the slide in the uprising against the Assad family's 42-year dynastic rule from civilian demonstrations to armed insurgency over the past few months.
KURDISH PRECEDENT
Exile activist Massoud Akko said Turkey and Western countries should organise an airlift to Homs and other stricken cities and towns that have borne the brunt of the crackdown.
"This could be done by air drops into Homs similar to what the United States did in Iraqi Kurdistan in the 1990s," Akko said, of help for Iraq's ethnic minority during its fight against Saddam Hussein.
Syria's position at the heart of the Middle East, allied to Iran and home to a volatile religious and ethnic mix, means Assad's international opponents have ruled out the kind of military action they took against Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.
Russia and China, which let the United Nations support the air campaign in Libya, provoked strong condemnation from the United States, European powers and Arab governments when they vetoed a resolution in the Security Council last week that called on Assad to step down. Moscow, for whom Syria is a buyer of arms and host to a Soviet-era naval base, wants to counter U.S. influence and maintain its traditional role in the Middle East. For both Russia and China, Syria is also a test case for efforts to resist international encroachment on sovereign governments' freedom to deal with rebels as they see fit.
PUTIN SAYS NO INTERFERENCE
Campaigning for next month's presidential election that he is certain to win, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said: "A cult of violence has been coming to the fore in international affairs ... This cannot fail to cause concern. "Help them, advise them, limit, for instance, their ability to use weapons but not interfere under any circumstances."
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who had described the Russian and Chinese veto at the U.N. as a "fiasco", telephoned outgoing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday.
The Kremlin said Medvedev told Erdogan the search for a solution should continue but that foreign interference was not an option.
The U.N.'s Ban said it was more urgent than ever to find common ground. In an implicit criticism of the Assad government, he said: "Such violence is unacceptable before humanity ... We have heard too many broken promises, even within the past 24 hours." In Washington, officials said the United States planned to meet soon with its allies to discuss ways to halt the violence and provide humanitarian aid to civilians under attack. White House spokesman Jay Carney said the talks, which would include the opposition Syrian National Council, were aimed at helping the process "move toward a peaceful, political transition, democratic transition in Syria". Any international move to bring in humanitarian aid could open a dangerous and complicated new chapter in the crisis, with air drops seen as expensive and ineffective and any land routes open to attack from Syrian forces. But the White House stressed it was not actively considering military intervention. "We never rule anything out in a situation like this," Carney said. "But we are pursuing a path that includes isolating and pressuring the Assad regime so that it stops its heinous slaughtering of its own people."

Damascus: Like Beirut’s southern suburbs
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Over forty years of al-Assad rule, whether we are talking about the rule of the father or the son, we have heard that Damascus is the capital of Arabism and the capital of the resistance. We have heard that the Damascus of al-Assad is the stronghold and garrison of the resistance, and other such lies and slogans. However on Tuesday, the picture was very different, for Damascus was more like the southern suburbs of Beirut, namely the suburbs of Hassan Nasrallah.
On Tuesday, the al-Assad regime mobilized its supporters – in a sad and pathetic scene – to meet the Russian envoys, namely the Russian Foreign Minister [Sergey Lavrov] and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director [Mikhail Fradkov]. The two Russian envoys received a hero’s welcome or a welcome that is more usually reserved for a head of state, not a foreign minister and intelligence chief. The question that immediately springs to mind is: what would have happened if the Russian President or Prime Minister had visited Damascus? Damascus welcomed the two Russian envoys in the same way that the southern suburbs of Beirut welcomed the Turkish Prime Minister or the Emir of Qatar or the Iranian President, following Israel’s war on Lebanon. The al-Assad regime wanted to thank the Russians utilizing its veto [against the UN Security Council draft resolution condemning the suppression and calling for an end to violence in Syria], which served as life support for the Bashar al-Assad regime which is politically deceased. At the same time that al-Assad supporters filled the streets of the Syrian capital welcoming the Russian envoys in the manner of the southern suburbs, it was also announced that Iraq had agreed to serve as a conduit to facilitate the transfer of Syrian goods. It appears that al-Maliki is intent upon reviving the spirit of Saddam Hussein, but with a Shiite flavour. Therefore Baghdad also agreed to provide political life support to the al-Assad regime, which is politically deceased. This is contrary to the decision taken by the Gulf States to expel the al-Assad regime ambassadors from their territories. This is a decision that reflects the Gulf State’s siding with and supporting the unarmed Syrians against the tyrant of Damascus; whilst Baghdad has chosen to stand with al-Assad.
When we say that Damascus is like the southern suburbs today, this was after Syria was previously providing life support to the suburbs, however it is Baghdad which is now providing al-Assad with this same life support. Therefore Nasrallah’s suburbs have become more like a cave or den [in the absence of the Syrian life-support]. We therefore now see Hassan Nasrallah – on the same day – coming out to defend Hezbollah and himself, saying they do not traffic in drugs because Iran’s support of Hezbollah means they do not need money from anywhere else! This excuse is worse than any sin, for anybody who wants to be an Arab, and live in our region, cannot boast about Iranian, or Russian, support. Therefore, one can only say: my God how things can change! For everybody is now in their natural scope, whether we are talking about al-Assad being provided political life support by Baghdad today, or Hassan Nasrallah saying that the source of his livelihood is Iran, not drugs, in the knowledge that Iran is in the midst of its worst ever political and economic crisis! All of this informs us that our region today is in an extremely volatile phase, accompanied by hurricanes and storms. What is certain is that our region will be better off without these extremist models, which are dependent upon political life support from Iran or Syria.

Russia conspires to salvage Assad rule
February 09, 2012 /By Michael Young/The Daily Star
What strange tea are the Russians brewing in their diplomatic samovar? Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, visited Damascus on Tuesday with the foreign intelligence chief, Mikhail Fradkov, and made a statement afterward that was, at best, ambiguous. That’s not a good sign when Syrians are crying for clarity.
Following his meeting with Bashar Assad, Lavrov declared that the Syrian president “was completely committed to the task of stopping violence, regardless of where it may come from.” He said that Russia was ready “to help foster the swiftest exit from the crisis on the basis of positions set out in the Arab League initiative.” The foreign minister also stated that the Assad regime supported an expanded effort by the Arab League to monitor events in Syria, and said that Moscow would continue to work with Syrian opposition groups.
Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, emphasized that the Syrian opposition had to accept a dialogue with Syria’s regime, otherwise the clause in the Arab League plan for the country referring to the formation of a national-unity government would have no value. Lavrov’s and Churkin’s remarks came amid reports in Le Figaro that Russian experts are helping revamp Syria’s Baath Party, in preparation for a new Constitution that will supposedly authorize multiparty elections, limit presidential terms, and do away with Article 8 of the current Constitution that designates the Baath as the “leader of state and society” in Syria.
There had been speculation on Tuesday that Lavrov might advise Assad to consent to a Yemen scenario, whereby the Syrian president would leave office and usher in a smooth transition. Nothing of the sort happened. On the contrary, the foreign minister appeared to endorse the so-called reform proposals of the Syrian regime, and, like his U.N. ambassador, focused on the dialogue dimension of the Arab League plan while ignoring the demand that Assad step down.
It is increasingly apparent that Moscow favors a solution that would preserve the core of Assad rule, behind the facade of a bogus transformation. The Russians seek the establishment of an anemic national-unity government in which compliant members of the Syrian opposition would be integrated, along with constitutional changes that would be, in practice, cosmetic. To bludgeon the opposition and make it more pliable, the Russians recently supplied Syria with arms for the military offensive of the past week. The idea that Assad must depart is not on the table, even if Moscow may not have entirely ruled that out as a contingency in the event its current strategy fails.
Particularly intriguing was the fact that Fradkov accompanied Lavrov on his trip. Why did he? According to Le Figaro, the intelligence chief may have been in Damascus because Russia wishes to reopen a listening post it controlled during the Cold War on Mount Qassioun, behind Damascus. It would be in character for the Russians to use Assad’s tribulations as leverage to gain concessions. At the same time, intelligence chiefs generally travel to foreign capitals to meet with their counterparts or to brief foreign leaders on intelligence in their possession, or both. This adds weight to the claim, again in Le Figaro, that Russian military and intelligence personnel have been operating in Syria in recent months, to help neutralize the uprising.
The sole political instrument available to initiate a dialogue between Assad and the opposition is the Arab League plan. That explains why Lavrov and Churkin have been trying to inject new life into it, and why the Syrian regime is now seemingly interested in reinvigorating, even expanding, the Arab observer mission. Without the Arab framework, the purported reform program fashioned by Russia and Assad would take place in a vacuum – devoid of local, regional and international legitimacy. If their national-unity government gambit is to see the light of day, the Arab plan must first be revived.
Almost immediately, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, in separate venues, sought to undermine Russian actions. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ankara was preparing a new initiative on Syria “with those countries that stand by the people, not the Syrian government.” This was an implicit slight at Russia. At the same time, Gulf Cooperation Council governments, led by Saudi Arabia, recalled their ambassadors in Damascus while expelling Syria’s envoys from their own capitals. The measures were designed to reiterate that there can be no solution with Assad in power.
After remaining quiet on Syria during much of the past year, the Saudis are mobilized. They were instrumental in bringing about the collapse of the Arab observer mission once they realized that it was being exploited by the Syrian regime. And they will play a vital role in blocking the Russian-Syrian project to suffocate the Syrian revolt. Riyadh evidently has an ally in Turkey, as both countries see an opportunity to prevent the survival of a regime they both regard as a threat, while also undercutting Iran’s influence in the Levant.
The United States and the Europeans appear to be on the same wavelength as the Saudis and Turks. As far as all these countries are concerned, Bashar Assad is history, and Russian intransigence will not alter that. We should watch for new diplomatic attempts at the U.N., perhaps via the General Assembly, to circumvent a Russian veto. And don’t put it beyond the Gulf states, with Turkish acquiescence and American and European assistance, to accelerate the arming, financing, and training of Syrian army deserters.
Moscow cannot take on the world, even less so when the man they hope to save has perpetuated abominable massacres of civilians. Syria is not Grozny. If it’s either civil war or a Russian plan to salvage Assad rule, many Arab states and the West might tolerate the former. That could be dangerous, but not less so than the Russians’ illusion that Syrians will stomach more of Bashar Assad after all that he’s done.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle.” He tweets @BeirutCalling.