LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 18/2012

Bible Quotation for today/The Day of the Lord Is Coming
Malachi 04/01-06: "The Lord Almighty says, The day is coming when all proud and evil people will burn like straw. On that day they will burn up, and there will be nothing left of them. But for you who obey me, my saving power will rise on you like the sun and bring healing like the sun's rays. You will be as free and happy as calves let out of a stall. On the day when I act, you will overcome the wicked, and they will be like dust under your feet. Remember the teachings of my servant Moses, the laws and commands which I gave him at Mount Sinai for all the people of Israel to obey. But before the great and terrible day of the Lord comes, I will send you the prophet Elijah. He will bring fathers and children together again; otherwise I would have to come and destroy your country."

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
The decline of the west and the world disorder/By Amir Taheri/February 17/12
The media does not prevent massacres/By Diana Mukkaled/February 17/12
Standing up to Assad/By: Tony Badran/February 17/12
Failed logic/By Mshari Al-Zaydi/February 17/12
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Speech Of Thursday 16 February/12
Striking Iran's nuclear program is out of Israel's league/By Yoel Marcus/February 17/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 17/12
Iran, Hezbollah seek to attack more Israeli targets abroad, Israeli official says
Report: Israel advises Thailand to up security, fearing fresh attacks
Harel and Issacharoff / Iran’s global terror campaign has been stifled, for now
Thailand police: Iranian suspects in Bangkok attack consorted with prostitutes
Israel blames Iran's Quds Force for embassy bombs
Iran Blames Foreign Interference for Region's Problems
Mission impossible? U.S. wants sanctions to hurt only Iran
U.S. intelligence officials: Iran not about to abandon nuclear program, but unlikely to provoke conflict
U.S.: Iran lashing out to 'distract' from impact of sanctions
Iran: Our satellite photographed Israel's Dimona reactor, IDF bases
Tehran seeks to restart nuclear talks with West
US sets sanctions on Iran's Intelligence Ministry
Netanyahu: International sanctions against Iran not working
In Cyprus, Netanyahu stresses cooperation in natural gas
U.N. General Assembly urges Assad to step down
U.N. General Assembly Votes 137 to 12 to Condemn Syrian Regime
Chinese envoy heads to Syria after U.N. vote against Assad
UN General Assembly condemns Bashar Assad
Amnesty Says U.N. Vote Sent 'Clear' Message to Syria
European report: Optimism on Assad’s fall unjustified
ICC, Ethiopian Community to Hold Demonstration Demanding Saudis Release Ethiopian Christian Prisoners
Canada Calls on Iran to Halt Execution
Canada Welcomes UN Resolution Against Syrian Regime
Canada's Statement on First Anniversary of Libyan Revolution
Canada  Welcomes Acquittal of Canadian Held in Bahrain
Bellemare submits draft indictment in Hariri-linked cases: report
Geagea fires back at Nasrallah
March 14 coalition MP Marwan Hamadeh accuses Iran, Syria of Lebanon assassinations
Sheikh Mohammad Ali Husseini imprisoned for collaborating with Israel
Nasrallah open to unconditional dialogue
Hezbollah denies responsibility for attempted terror attacks against Israeli targets
Al-Rahi in Lent Message: Political Leadership Should Work for Public Good
Jumblat Meets Davutoglu: Political Solution Will End Syria Crisis
March 14 Slams Nasrallah’s ‘Ambiguous’ Retort
Berri Meets Aoun 2 Days after Holding Talks with Miqati Amid Cabinet Crisis
4 oil refinery employees charged in 'red gasoil scandal'
Lebanese-Cypriot Talks to Resolve Natural Resources Dispute
Arab League chief Egypt's next president?
Friends, colleagues mourn loss of Anthony Shadid

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Speech Of Thursday 16 February/12
February 16, 2012
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a televised speech to a party ceremony honoring Hezbollah martyrs. He said:
"On this occasion to mark the history and the stances of our martyrs I need to express my sorrow because today we miss the presence of Sayyed Abu Hussein al-Moussawi, the father of the martyr [former Hezbollah chief] Abbas al-Moussawi [who was assassinated in 1992]… this Sayyed is the father of our teacher and leader Sayyed Abbas and has been always present on all the fields of the Resistance and I offer my condolences to all his family and village.
Sayyed Hassan has not missed one opportunity to support the Resistance… We pledge to the soul of this father that we will preserve his soul and his era and we will continue on the path of Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi.
On the occasion of the leaders who have become martyrs we speak of them and their causes, resistance and achievement.
The common aspects between these leaders—Abbas Moussawi, [Imam] Ragheb Harb [who was killed in 1984] and [former Hezbollah military commander] Imad Mughniyeh [who was assassinated in 2008]—is that they are [among] the founders of Hezbollah… These martyrs had a very strong influence in bolstering the foundation, mentality, culture and course of this Resistance and this party… Hezbollah is still abiding by this course.
We do not build our alliances based on our moods, we always take into consideration the interests of the Umma, country and people and among these bases [upon which we build our coalitions] is the issue related to the stance toward the Zionist plan in the region.
First understand its truth, measures, dangers, strong points and its current environment. We understand that Israel is… the tool and army of the Zionist plan in the region. We outline our stance based on this [understanding].
The danger of the Zionist plan, which is represented by Israel, involves all of the region. [Israel] occupies Palestine and the holy sites of Christians and Muslims.[Israel] is making efforts to Judaize Jerusalem and has inflicted pain and calamities on the Palestinian people.
Second, [we adopt such a stance] because we believe [Israel is a threat]… The Zionist entity endangers the region and its people regardless of their religious and racial affiliations or [even the civilization from which they descend].
Therefore we need to confront this danger and bring it down. In truth every fighter in this region, particularly in the neighboring states who stand in the face of Israel, [are in fact] defending all of the Umma.
Our leaders who became martyrs were defending Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and all Arab and Islamic states in the region.
This is the primary standard through which we evaluate, correct and form our alliances, and this is among our most important standards. Based on this standard we evaluate our behavior.
We are the sons of Hezbollah and through this evaluation we look at others, whether they are parties, movements in Lebanon or the Arab region, [taking into consideration] their positions toward Palestine.
In this age it is preferable for the rising Islamic movements to evaluate themselves through [the way they regard Palestinian cause].
There are things that can be adjourned, but the Palestinian cause and the Zionist danger posed against the Umma and the religion of this Umma is very dangerous.
No Islamic movement in any Arab or Islamic country [can exist] without having a clear stance toward the Zionist plan in the region.
Throughout the 60 years of the occupation of Palestine some [Arab regimes] colluded with Western [states] and Israel against Palestine and helped to strengthen this entity.
When we say that we need to [tackle] the regional situation from the right perspective [we need] to look at the issue of Israel and its current reality and how its behaving in addition to its location in light of what is happening in the region, particularly in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon.
The Arab people and governments are not preoccupied with Palestine. Today the [leading] event is Syria and I do not say Bahrain because no one is asking about [what is happening in Bahrain]… There is a grave injustice in Bahrain.
[In light of what is happening] the Israelis are proceeding with their plan in Palestine; Judaizing Jerusalem, expeling [Palestinian] people and torturing detainees in prison.
Prisoner Khoder Adnan went on a 60 days hunger strike, so where is the Arab League and the Arab World? If Khoder Adnan was an Israeli would the world have behaved in a similar way?
Fear is dominating the minds of the Israelis.
Netanyahu said prior to the downfall of [Egyptian president] Hosni Mubarak and the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, ‘After the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and the withdrawal from Gaza Strip the trajectory changed and it has become clear that Israel is no more a government that cannot be overcome.’
Regarding the Israeli air force, after the 2006 July War it became unable to [win] a battle and same [goes] for [Israel’s] land forces. They were unable to stand in the face of the sons of the Resistance in South Lebanon.
The Mossad chief says that Hezbollah has 90 percent of the power of [a standard army]. Do we own this power or not? God knows.
Dear Egyptians whenever you encounter chaos or a security incident and turmoil you search for the Israeli and American [answer].
In Iraq, chaos and internal fighting is America’s opportunity, especially after it failed to stay in Iraq and it has a big opportunity to overthrow the Syrian regime.
Today there is a consensus in Israel that any option is better than Syrian President Bashar al-Assad [staying in power]. Israel… is hoping that the Syrian regime will collapse because when [Syrian] opposition becomes sponsored by the American, Western and the Arab [countries], which have a well-known history, [then] we have the right to worry.
People, why is there is a determination to overthrow the Syrian regime?
According to us we stand by the Syrian regime. Can anyone say that the Syrian regime is not a rejectionist regime and did not support the resistance in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq?
The regime in Syria has stood in the face of the Israeli-US plan in the region. There are negative [aspects] to regime, yes. The regime itself, says so.
There are [groups] that say that the Syrian did not open the Golan front [against Israel]. You who speak of the Resistance, have you ever stood by the Resistance and offered it money?
This regime needs reforms, yes, and the regime today said that it is ready to embrace reforms and has started to issue decrees on parties and media and then came the constitution proposal.
These Arab governments said that the solution with Israel is political and [can be achieved] through negotiations… and for ten years they have been wanting to negotiate with the Israel and they have been patient.
But in Syria there is no time. Assuming that the regime in Syria is like Israel, then why do [Arab states] accept negotiations and a political solution with Israel and not with Syria?
Even in Bahrain why don’t [the Arabs] stand by the Bahraini people who are abiding by Resistance?
The first people who took to the streets during the war on Gaza were the Bahraini people… If there were elections in Bahrain you would have seen that Bahrain stands by the Resistance.
We need to search for a political solution in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon and take the opportunity away from the Israeli [state]. Did any emir or sheikh in any Arab regime embrace the reforms which [Syrian President Bashar al-]Assad adopted? However, the Americans need to destroy Syria and Iraq.
In Lebanon two days ago on February 14, Lebanon witnessed a dear anniversary which is the anniversary of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and other martyrs. We express our sympathies to [Hariri’s] family and to those who love him; as we also condemn this [assassination].
We are [people who support] dialogue and reason and we respect the sensibility of the Lebanese and the other party. We do not seek to eliminate [the other] and we recognize its presence .
I will review some of the points that have been raised. We support any call for a national dialogue without prior conditions and we will take part in any national dialogue that has an agenda which we back. However, a call for joining a national dialogue with prior conditions is not an invitation for dialogue.
There was also an attack that was launched against Hezbollah and Syria and I was hoping that whenever they [March 14] want to review the names of the massacres it is better if [Lebanese Forces leader] Samir Geagea did not do so. It would have been better if National Bloc leader Carlos Edde did so.
Regarding the fourth person who spoke [during the February 14 event] and who spoke on behalf of the [Syrian National Council], [I say] that if the first appearance of the SNC crescent would be represented by [March 14 General Secretariat Coordinator] Fares Soueid speaking on behalf of the group, then this is a good start.
[One] year ago I talked about Bahrain, [and March 14 rose against me] and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri attacked us. I demand that March 14 alliance adopt an approach [or a course of action] because we have one standard.
Why is [March 14] fighting with money and weapons in Syria and involved in escalating the fighting in Syria?
When a dear brother of ours was arrested in Egypt and included in the case called the “Hezbollah cell,” March 14 [rose up against us]. They said that Hezbollah is involving Lebanon in conflicts. I will refer to someone other than Hariri. Geagea said that: “This incident cannot pass just like that in any government and no party has the right to violate other state’s laws.
Does Syria’s laws allow you to interfere with weapons and incite Syrians against each other?
I say to [those] in March 14 that you have linked all your options to one bet. They have settled their issues believing that the Syrian regime will collapse in the same way they did in previous bets but did not succeed.
[March 14] talks about neutrality and says ‘Lebanon First’ but we do not have ‘Lebanon First’ and full stop. We have a first, second and third Lebanon.
[March 14] took a neutral position toward the issue of Israel so [they should] do the same regarding Syria. Why have you linked Lebanon’s condition to the collapse of the Syrian regime?
Through such [a course of action] [March 14 is] plunging Lebanon into a war.
Among the conditions for dialogue are clarity and transparency and the ability of everyone to express himself properly.
I said last week that we thank the Islamic Republic of Iran for the weapons it is providing us with and some [groups in] March 14 said that such remarks are to be condemned.
From where does [March 14] get [its] money? Since 2005 up until now, you have spent more than $3 billion. From where have you received this sum of money?
Iran did not give the money to Hezbollah because it is a Lebanese party but because it is a Resistance party [fighting] against Israel. But you are political parties so why have you obtained $3 billion dollars? Are your economic plans recognizable?
We are clear regarding the issue of arms. We have arms and you can write a poem about this. We have arms and they are increasing [in number]. We have well-known weapons and there are others which are hidden and unknown. We are hiding them because we need to protect our country and prepare surprises for the Israelis.
[March 14 should] acknowledge that [it] has arms which are being revealed on the streets.
Are the rockets and bombs which thwart the Israeli threat and threaten Tel Aviv deemed weapons for stirring strife?
Are you seriously convinced that the Arab Spring emerged from the womb of the Cedar Revolution? The Arab Spring came out against regimes that were ruled by [former US Secretary of State] Condoleezza Rice and [current US Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton and those who are ruling you today.
This finger [Nasrallah raised during the speech] will not please you. You are not in a position to make rules. You made rules in the July 2006 War and it ended against your wishes.
Leaders of March 14, and with all due respect to those who have good intention regarding the national decision, you are in no position to give guarantees in Lebanon in light of the current changes. The game in the region is bigger than you. Whoever is keen to prevent dissension needs to make efforts to silence his MPs, allies, and media outlets which incite day and night.
We support dialogue without prior conditions and we have reason and are ready to open up.We support the preservation of the government and resolving its problems.
We are not involved in the bombings that took place in India or other countries. Who is involved? I have no information.
Here I want to recall something: The blood of Imad Mughniyeh will keep on haunting you [referring to Israelis]. This blood will not fall silent.
Sheikh Ragheb Harb was killed because he refused to shake hands. Mughniyeh and Abbas al-Moussawi were killed because they refused to compromise. We will not witness what is worse than 2006. The world was against us, China and Russia and even the government in which we were participating were against us.
They said that the war would end if we handed in our weapons and released [the Israeli] hostages or else Israel would crush us. I told my brothers not one day had I been able to understand Imam Hussein and Karbala the way I did during the 2006 July War. We are staying here and will proceed with this vision and clarity and do not fear the future. It is the Americans and the Israelis who should be concerned, and we will be able to launch a confrontation that knows no defeat.”

U.N. General Assembly urges Assad to step down
February 17, 2012/By Daily Star Staff
BEIRUT/AMMAN: Syrian troops attacked Thursday rebel strongholds in Deraa where the uprising against President Bashar Assad erupted nearly a year ago as the U.N. General Assembly adopted the same Arab League plan that was earlier vetoed by Russia and China at the Security Council. The resolution, condemning the Syrian crackdown and asking Assad to delegate his powers to his vice president, won a majority of 137 votes, with only 12 against and 17 abstentions. As opposed to Security Council resolutions, those adopted by the General Assembly are non-binding to member states.
The assault on Deraa followed a thrust against rebels in the cities of Hama and Homs, which has faced nearly two weeks of bombardment from Assad’s forces, in an apparent campaign to crush the revolt against his rule. Assad has intensified a crackdown on protesters and insurgents, while also setting a Feb. 26 referendum on a draft constitution that would formally end the Baath Party’s monopoly on power, to be followed by a multiparty parliamentary election.
Syria’s opposition and Western powers dismissed the promised reforms. Meanwhile, China, which voted against the adopted resolution Thursday, said it was sending a senior envoy to Syria. “[China] does not approve of the use of force to interfere in Syria or the forceful pushing of a so-called regime change,” Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun said. Zhai, who will visit Syria Friday, said China believed “sanctions or the threat of sanctions are not conducive to the appropriate resolution of this issue.”
Juppe said agreement at the Security Council was possible with Russia to halt the bloodshed, and that France was ready to work on a new resolution to provide humanitarian aid to Syrians.
“We can possibly reach a compromise on a short-term objective which is to end the massacres,” Juppe said. “We must do everything so that the violence ends and that a lot of humanitarian aid is given to the Syrian people.” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was non-committal after meeting Juppe in Vienna. “I cannot express my opinion on the French proposal because I received none,” he said. “The minister told me they are thinking of a new resolution which will be intended to help delivery of humanitarian assistance ... with the consent of all those who have arms on the ground,” he said.
The European Parliament issued a resolution calling for the creation of humanitarian aid corridors in Syria, and said the EU should restrict diplomatic relations with Damascus. The move was largely symbolic as the parliament does not have policy-making powers in these areas.
Foreign minister Villy Sovndal of Denmark, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said EU states would not provide arms to the Syrian opposition but could offer other help. “The only thing I can exclude right now are any ideas about military intervention in Syria,” he said, when asked if EU governments were prepared to offer Syrian rebels material help such as communications equipment.
“That might be a possibility,” he told Reuters. “I would not exclude anything but weapons.
After bombarding Homs for nearly two weeks, the Syrian military has begun a new offensive in Hama. Activists said at least 14 people were killed in bombardment of the nearby town of Kfar Nubouzeh Thursday.The state news agency said security forces “chased and fought an armed terrorist group in the Hamidiya neighborhood of Hama that has been terrifying citizens” and arrested some of its members, who had assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.Syrian forces arrested human rights activist Mazen Darwich, prominent blogger Razan Ghazawi, and several other activists Thursday after breaking into Drawich’s office in central Damascus, another opposition figure said. Darwich, head of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, has been active in documenting human rights violations committed by Assad’s forces during the crackdown. In Deraa, a city on the Jordanian border, the sound of explosions and machinegun fire echoed through districts under attack by government troops, residents said. “The army bombardment started around dawn and after that exchanges of fire occurred,” Hussam Izzedine, a member of the Syrian human rights organization Sawasiah, said from Deraa. He said the rebel Free Syrian Army had been providing security for protests in some parts of the city.

Bellemare submits draft indictment in Hariri-linked cases: report
February 17, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Al-Akhbar reported Friday that the prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has submitted a new draft indictment in the attempted assassinations of former Deputy Prime Minister Elias Murr and MP Marwan Hamdeh and in the assassination of former Communist Party leader George Hawi. The local newspaper also said General Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare had also submitted additional documents related to the indictment in the case of slain five-time former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was killed in a massive car bomb on Feb. 14, 2005.
When contacted by The Daily Star, STL spokesperson Marten Youssef said it was up to the prosecutor to decide when to file an indictment for review to the pre-trial judge. "It is also his prerogative to file it confidentially and ex-parte, in which case, we would not be privy to that filing," Youssef said in an email. Al-Akhbar quoted sources close to the office of the general prosecution as saying that “Bellemare has delivered a new draft indictment” related to the cases of Murr, Hamadeh and Hawi to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen. Fransen, the paper said, would assess the indictment and has the ability to ask the prosecution for additional material if the accusation is not sufficient. The STL, established in 2007 to probe the assassination of Hariri, has established links between Hariri's case and the three politicians. In October 2004, Hamadeh was targeted by a car bomb which left him seriously wounded, while Murr was targeted on July 12, 2005. Hawi was assassinated on June 21, 2005. In June 2011, four members of Hezbollah – Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Salim Jamil Ayyash, Hussein Hassan Oneissi and Assad Hassan Sabra – were named in an indictment by the U.N.-backed court. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has said that that the four would never be apprehended, despite calls by Lebanese politicians for the resistance party to hand over the suspects. Hamadeh has accused Syria and Iran of being behind the spate of assassinations between 2004 and 2010.

Geagea fires back at Nasrallah
February 17, 2012/ By Dana Khraiche/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea slammed Hezbollah's leader Friday, saying Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah had failed to adhere to agreements arrived at during previous national dialogue sessions and accused the resistance group of committing crimes both during times of war and peace. “Hezbollah was never serious about dialogue even when we agreed on the issue of the international tribunal in the last dialogue session,” Geagea, who spoke on the occasion of the launch of the LF party’s charter in Maarab, north-east of Beirut, said. “Hezbollah agreed to it [the international tribunal] but never committed to it,” Geagea added. During national dialogue sessions in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to establish an international tribunal to probe the 2005 assassination of the five-time prime minister but later rejected the court, which would be established under the name of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in 2007. The court was established under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Security Council.
In 2010, Hezbollah-backed March 8 coalition ministers also boycotted national dialogue sessions over disputes on the subject of the U.N.-backed court. In another related dispute in early 2011, March 8 ministers resigned from the Cabinet headed by Hariri’s son – former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, forcing its collapse. Four members of Hezbollah were indicted by the STL in June 2011.
In a televised speech Thursday, Nasrallah left the door open to a resumption of dialogue with the March 14 alliance but said talks should launch without conditions.
Nasrallah also accused the March 14 coalition of arming and financing the Syrian opposition against President Bashar Assad’s government, saying that such actions destabilized Lebanon.
Geagea, a leading figure in the March 14 coalition, said Hezbollah’s weapons alone threatened the country’s stability.
“Are we the ones involving Lebanon in crises? The ones doing this are the ones wielding power outside the jurisdiction of the Lebanese state,” Geagea said, in a clear reference to Hezbollah.
“What we [March 14 coalition] are doing is giving a political, ethical opinion,” Geagea added. The LF leader also said that Nasrallah focused solely on the “Zionist project,” which he said clouded the Hezbollah chief’s judgments, particularly when it came to the issue of Syria. Nasrallah, Syria’s key ally in Lebanon, has repeatedly defended Assad and mirrored Damascus’s version of events in the tightly controlled state, namely that Syria is confronting foreign-backed fighter seeking to end Assad’s rule for his support of resistance groups and his anti-Israel stances.
“Sayyed Hasan believes that all the countries [that voted for a resolution on Syria at the U.N. General Assembly] are at fault ... this is a true popular movement which began due to certain demands and needs,” Geagea said. “Has Hasan Nasrallah seen the videos of buildings collapsing in Syrian neighborhoods? The footage reminded me of Israeli strikes against Gaza,” he added.
Geagea also defended his actions, both past and present, after Nasrallah mocked the LF leader saying that he was the last person to condemn “massacres” in Syria.
“If all the accusations against us about what we allegedly did during the [Lebanese 1975-90 Civil War] were true then they would be worth just one drop in the sea of crimes committed by Hezbollah during the war and in times of peace,” Geagea said. During his speech Thursday commemorating the death of leading resistance figures, Nasrallah also scoffed at remarks by March 14 politicians that the 2005 “Cedar Revolution” served as the foundation for the uprising witnesses in the last two years.Geagea defended the “Cedar Revolution” and said it had forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and had provided a mode for the “Arab Spring.” “No one [but the people] overthrew [former President Hosni] Mubarak in Egypt but we provided an example to follow,” Geagea said.

March 14 Slams Nasrallah’s ‘Ambiguous’ Retort
by Naharnet /March 14 general-secretariat coordinator Fares Soaid has said that Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah didn’t clarify in his speech on Thursday whether his party would heed the demand of the March 14 opposition to integrate its arms in the state. “We waited for an answer from him on the March 14’s proposal for Hizbullah to abide by the conditions of the state, i.e. the cooperation with the international tribunal to hand over the suspects and the handing over of the arms so that they could be placed under the state’s care,” Soaid said in remarks published Friday. “His answer was ambiguous,” he said, adding “we didn’t understand if he supports or rejects the return to the state under its own conditions or if he wants for the political division on his arms to continue.”In a televised speech on the occasion of a rally to commemorate slain resistance leaders in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Nasrallah called for a national dialogue without prior conditions. He also said Hizbullah’s arms are aimed at defending Lebanon and liberating occupied territories. “We will keep our arms to defend Lebanon.” But he didn’t bring up the issue of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that has indicted four Hizbullah members in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri’s Feb. 2005 assassination. Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri called during a ceremony held on the occasion of his father’s murder anniversary on Tuesday for Hizbullah to surrender its arms and hand over the four men. Soaid also accused Nasrallah of “insulting the people,” saying such a behavior does not suit him and his rank.

Berri Meets Aoun 2 Days after Holding Talks with Miqati Amid Cabinet Crisis
by Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri held talks with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun in Ain el-Tineh on Friday, two days after meeting with Premier Najib Miqati who is at loggerheads with the FPM chief. The National News Agency said that Berri and Aoun discussed the latest developments. Miqati said following talks with Berri on Wednesday that the cabinet crisis which erupted earlier in the month hasn’t been resolved yet.Asked by reporters when he would call for a session, he said: “When the issue is resolved, we would immediately call for a meeting.”But “the problem hasn’t been solved yet,” he stressed. Cabinet sessions were suspended on Feb. 1 after Miqati accused ministers loyal to Aoun of obstructing the government’s work.Berri’s meetings with the two officials were a sign that he is seeking to mediate to resolve the crisis. The speaker has previously said that there is no need for him to interfere.

Jumblat Meets Davutoglu: Political Solution Will End Syria Crisis
by Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat stressed the need for exerting political and humanitarian efforts to end the crisis in Syria, announced the PSP in a statement on Thursday.
He said after holding talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Turkey: “The political solution alone will end the Syrian regime’s violence” against protesters. The MP’s talks in Turkey also focused on Lebanese and other regional developments. Jumblat had traveled to Turkey on Wednesday on board a private jet. The PSP leader had met with Davutoglu during the latter’s visit to Beirut in January. The Lebanese official had stressed the importance of maintaining stability in Lebanon to avert any repercussions the Syrian crisis may have on the country. Turkey “is keen not to allow the Syrian crisis slip into Lebanon,” Jumblat remarked.

Al-Rahi in Lent Message: Political Leadership Should Work for Public Good
by Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi urged Lebanese authorities in his first lent message on Friday to serve the public and help the poor.Under the slogan of “Lent in the Age of Change” in the church, the community and the state, al-Rahi said: “The political leadership is invited to invest public properties, ports, taxes, fees and the national economy in the public good.”
“It is its primary duty to take care of the poor and the needy so that they become proud of belonging to their nation,” he said.
Al-Rahi called for commitment to community work in accordance with the church’s teachings given the existing poverty and bad economic and social conditions.

Iran, Hezbollah seek to attack more Israeli targets abroad, Israeli official says
By Barak Ravid/Haaretz
Israel's Counterterrorism Bureau urges Israelis abroad to proceed with caution following information provided by interrogation of Iranian suspects apprehended after botched Bangkok bombing. Iranian and Hezbollah operatives are still seeking to attack Israeli targets in several countries, Israel's Counterterrorism Bureau indicated on Friday, warning Israeli citizens to adhere to the directives of local security forces. The remarks, given during a press briefing, came after earlier Friday Thai security forces have upped alertness levels in the country's international airports and rail system over what local police is saying is an Israeli warning against new terror attacks. According to a report by the Bangkok Post, Chief of Royal Thai Police Priewpan Damapong told the Transport Ministry on Thursday to place the country's six international airports on high alert. Alertness levels were raised from the normal 2 to 3.
The Bangkok Post cited a Thai government source as saying that the move followed an advisory issued by Israel to bolster airport security over intelligence reports indicating the possibility of fresh attacks.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, a top official at the Counterterrorism Bureau indicated that an investigation of Iranian nationals apprehended following the botched Bangkok bombing indicated that more attacks were in the works. "I call on Israelis abroad to show awareness and take basic steps to reduce possible harm," the official said, adding that they should "take note of suspicious objects and refrain from taking packages from strangers" and "be attentive to the directives of local security forces."
The official added, however, security forces are not in possession of any specific information concerning a certain country in which such an attack could take place, citing only a general warning.
He added that current intelligence points at a clear Iranian involvement in all three of this week's attacks, adding that Israel was taking into account a remark by Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah, according to which the group planned attacks against high-ranking Israeli officials to avenge the2008 assassination of Hezbollah's deputy leader Imad Mughniyah.

Thailand police: Iranian suspects in Bangkok attack consorted with prostitutes
By DPA /Men spent 2 nights in beach resort of Pattaya, notorious for its sex industry, took pictures; cell-phone image shows Iranian nationals sitting near drinks-filled table.The three Iranian men detained for allegedly plotting bomb attacks in Bangkok on Israeli diplomats had more than terror on their minds in Thailand. Police said Friday they had also cavorted with prostitutes at a beach resort.
The news comes as Thai authorities announced they were searching for two more suspects in the botched bomb plot, including a possible explosives specialist who may have been training the Iranians
The foiled plan was discovered Tuesday when explosives in the men's rented house blew up by mistake, forcing them to flee. Two were detained in the Thai capital, and a third was captured Wednesday in neighboring Malaysia as he reportedly tried to return to Iran.
After flying into the southern city of Phuket on Feb. 8, the men moved to Pattaya and stayed there for at least two nights before heading to Bangkok. Located 45 miles (70 kilometers) southeast of the Thai capital, Pattaya is particularly notorious for its sleazy sex industry and large contingent of prostitutes.
The Iranians hung out with several female sex workers during their stay there, and one of the women was brought to Bangkok to identify the suspects on Thursday, said Lt. Col. Noppon Kuldiloke, a senior immigration police investigator in southern Thailand.
A cell phone image taken by one of the women, published by the Bangkok Post with an article headlined "Suspects partied in Pattaya," purportedly showed the three Iranians at a Middle Eastern bar or restaurant surrounded by hookah water-pipes, two of them cradling women in their arms. The men posed for the photo around a low, drink-filled table on which there appeared to be at least one bottle of beer.
The woman who took the image said one of the now-detained suspects, Mohammad Kharzei, had asked her to escort him "because he was not good at speaking English," according to the Bangkok Post.
She said she brought two companions for Kharzei's friends, and they had drinks and played snooker together. The woman detected nothing awry, except when one of the Iranians "barred her from approaching a closet" in his hotel room, the newspaper reported.
The botched plot has ratcheted up tensions between Iran and Israel, which is accusing Iran of waging a covert campaign of state terror that included a bombing Monday in New Delhi that tore through an Israeli diplomatic vehicle, wounding an Israeli diplomat's wife and driver, and a failed bomb attempt the same day in the former Soviet republic of Georgia.
Iran has denied responsibility for all three bomb plots, and blames the Jewish state for the recent killings of Iranian atomic scientists.
Thailand's national police chief said Thursday that the detained Iranians were plotting to attack Israeli diplomats, citing the similarity of so-called "sticky" bombs that can be attached magnetically that were used in New Delhi and Tbilisi.
On Friday, Bangkok police commissioner Lt. Gen. Winai Thongsong announced authorities were searching for two more suspects in the case, including one man who was seen early Tuesday on closed circuit camera footage as he left the same house where the accidental explosion later took place.
Police said the man was seen leaving the residence with a bag in his hand, and had been coming and going repeatedly in the days prior to that.
The same cameras captured each of the three Iranian men leaving the residence shortly after an explosion ripped the roof of the house that afternoon.
Winai said the newest suspect was 52 years old and of Middle Eastern descent, but gave no other details and did not give his nationality.
He said police also are looking for an additional suspect who had rented the destroyed home with an Iranian woman named Leila Rohani who is now believed to be back in Tehran.
Besides Kharzei, the two other detained suspects are Saeid Moradi, whose leg was sheared off by explosives he was carrying on a busy Bangkok street as he tried to flee, and Masoud Sedaghatzadeh, who was arrested in Malaysia and was trying to return to Iran.

Striking Iran's nuclear program is out of Israel's league
By Yoel Marcus/Haaretz
An attack on insane Iran is out of our league and could prove a tragedy for generations to come.
Our favorite duo, Bibi and Barak, operate like Sylvester Stallone's Rambo. Real macho men who win in every movie. Against his powerful enemies, Rambo sweats, gets a black eye or two, bleeds, but in the end he wins, to the appropriate background music. Rambo's weakness, at least early in his films, is that he doesn't seem to think ahead, even when he's bleeding after what happened to him. The viewers in the movie theater know that the blood is paint and in the end he'll be victorious.
Unlike a film, where the director decides on the script and happy end, we're living with lots of question marks. While the team that's called a government makes threats as Rambo does, it's not clear if it knows how the Iranian adventure will end. We're not the ones who can stop Iran's nuclear trance; all we can do is delay it, at the price of turning Israel into a target of Iranian revenge for generations to come. Iran is endangering world peace, and by the very fact we think we have the power and option to take action against it, we're annoying the world. According to spokespeople for the U.S. administration, we're even endangering the world with our trigger-happy approach, as in a Western.
That's why when I read the passionate articles and politicians' battle cries calling on us to strike Iran, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. With all due respect to our exaggerated self-confidence, we're out of our league here. And it's no coincidence that the former Mossad chief and senior defense officials are warning our leaders against attacking Iran. Some of them are revealing that Iran has 200,000 long-range missiles, not to mention Syria's large arsenal of chemical weapons, which could fall into the hands of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
When you read those figures, it's clear that Israel must think twice before taking suicidal steps against Iran. Israel is showing a great degree of arrogance; after all, even America couldn't stop the manufacture of nuclear weapons in North Korea, India and Pakistan, regions that are combustible to the whole neighborhood. And America is walking on tiptoe when it comes to Iran, whose lethal influence in the regions of oil and extremist Islam is liable to undermine world peace.
Before Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak lead us to an irreversible military operation, the cabinet must ask questions that receive unequivocal answers before each member votes.
1. Are we capable of stopping Iran's nuclear program entirely, as we did in Iraq by bombing the nuclear reactor before it was completed? And can we do it even though Iran learned its lesson from that operation and has dispersed its facilities deep inside rocky ground all over the country, and even the Pentagon has announced that none of its bombs penetrate so deep?
2. Is it possible that the attack will only delay the development of the bomb and lead us into a long war with Iran?
3. Are we prepared to have Jewish organizations and Israeli embassies all over the world become revenge targets (as in Argentina )?
4. Do we understand the significance of having dozens of missiles launched daily on Tel Aviv by Iran and its allies, which will empty the city, end tourism and spark a flight from the country?
5. Is the government aware of the global worldwide economic damage that would be caused by a unilateral Israeli operation and the reaction by an insane Iran?
6. What price is Israel ready to pay in its relations with the United States after an attack without U.S. consent or coordination?
7. Until the final screw is turned in the Iranian bomb, not only Israel but the entire free world is in danger. If we want to be part of the sane and free world, we must strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible with the Palestinians, in coordination with the United States and Europe.
An attack on insane Iran is out of our league and could prove a tragedy for generations to come.


Mission impossible? U.S. wants sanctions to hurt only Iran
By Tabassum Zakaria and Arshad Mohammed | Reuters – ..WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama hopes the toughest sanctions ever imposed on Iran will squeeze its oil exports - all without scaring markets, crimping growth, impoverishing ordinary Iranians or antagonizing allies.
The geopolitical equivalent of threading a needle is made even more difficult by elections in both the United States and Iran. Obama's goal, persuading Iran to curb its nuclear program, seems far from assured. In recent weeks, U.S. officials have crisscrossed the globe to meet allies such as Japan and South Korea that rely heavily on Iranian oil and are worried that the new law may hurt their economies. The United States also wants to fend off any dramatic spike in oil prices that could hurt its own economy, the top issue for voters who will decide whether Obama is re-elected in November. U.S. officials say their talks have been productive so far and stress they are not looking to make enemies of their friends, and so will implement the sanctions with care. "There is flexibility on the sanctions, countries will make their own financial decisions and the United States will work with them," Daniel Glaser, assistant secretary for terrorist financing at the U.S. Treasury, said in an interview. "The goal here is not to punish any individual country, the goal is to target Iran," he said. The new law gives Obama the ability to cut off foreign banks, including central banks, from the U.S. financial system if they conduct petroleum-related transactions with Iran's central bank, the main clearing house for its oil exports.
MEASURES OF SUCCESS?
Yet even before the new sanctions go into effect, evidence is mounting that Western pressure may be hitting some of the wrong targets. Shipments of grain to Iran, exempt from the sanctions like other humanitarian goods, have been held up because of financial restrictions on Iranian banks that would handle the transactions. If previous sanctions efforts elsewhere are any guide, Iran's elites will find ways to insulate themselves from economic pain imposed from outside. The director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, told Congress on Thursday that despite increased pressure on Iran, "Tehran is not close to agreeing to abandoning its nuclear program."Still, the sanctions are clearly having some impact. Iran, which denies Western charges that it is seeking to build nuclear weapons, this week offered what it called "new initiatives" for nuclear talks with world powers. The move was widely seen as a response to mounting economic pain. In Iran, the rial currency has weakened sharply to about 20,000 to the U.S. dollar on the black market from about 13,000 before Obama signed the law on December 31.
"The precipitous drop in the value of the rial as well as their inability to responsibly manage their economy is the best evidence of the effectiveness of sanctions," Glaser said.
"Isolating Iran's central bank from the international financial system will make it difficult for Iran to manage its economy. That, over time, is going to be as important as directly impacting Iran's oil revenue," he said. The United States has not set a specific target, saying only that it wants to see a "significant" reduction in Iran's oil exports, deliberately leaving that term vague to preserve some latitude.
Analysts say a 20-25 percent reduction in Iran's oil revenue would show sanctions biting, while some U.S. senators say significant means an 18 percent reduction in total payments to Iran for oil. "I think it is a success if there is a 25 percent reduction in Iranian revenue or exports," said Frank Verrastro, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Facing rising prices for staples such as meat, bread and rice, many Iranians are withdrawing savings to buy increasingly scarce hard currency to preserve their purchasing power as the rial plummets.
"I think psychology has started to take over, started to take hold perhaps more than is warranted," said Ken Katzman, a Middle East specialist at the Congressional Research Service. "It's almost irrelevant whether these fears are unfounded or not because they are creating an economic reality with the fear."
The new U.S. sanctions go into effect for non-petroleum transactions with the Iranian central bank on February 29 and for oil-related transactions on June 28. That is aimed at giving Iran's oil customers - China, the European Union, Japan, India, South Korea and Turkey top the list - time to adapt, and to avoid whipping up oil prices.
"The United States continues to talk to buyers of Iranian oil about their energy needs and alternate sources with the goal being a significant, steady reduction in oil purchases from Iran over time, but it won't happen all at once," Glaser said.
"We need to understand what's in the realm of the possible, and it is unrealistic to apply one standard to all countries. This is going to have to be done on a case-by-case basis." Glaser spoke with Reuters before traveling to Oman, Qatar and Russia last week to discuss the sanctions and other issues. Verrastro, a former energy official, said while the U.S. administration wants sanctions to have a meaningful impact, it may tolerate some "leakage" if it keeps oil markets calm. "I think they want some leakage, because they are also trying to mitigate huge price spikes. So it doesn't have to be 100 percent effective," Verrastro said. The United States is hoping that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other oil producers will help fill the gap created by restrictions on Iranian oil.
IRANIAN EVASION
But the long phasing-in of the U.S. sanctions gives Iran time to devise strategies for evading them and Iran is considered adept at subterfuge to reroute its trade.
"If you target one bank they'll try to use another untargeted bank," Glaser said. Similarly, Reuters reported this week how the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), while blacklisted by the United Nations, continues to move cargo using a web of shell companies and diverse ownership.
But trying to evade sanctions raises the cost of doing business for Iran, U.S. officials say. And Tehran faces a much more united front than it has before. For years, Germany and other leading members of the European Union were slow to heed U.S. calls for tougher sanctions on Iran. Now, the EU has decided to cut off imports of Iranian oil by mid-year. Diplomats said Europeans overcame their historical resistance to imposing harsh sanctions on Iran because of a belief that Obama genuinely pursued diplomacy when he first came into office, the reality that talks have led nowhere and the fear that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear sites.
"The Europeans could no longer just continue to say 'Oh we have to give diplomacy a chance here,'" said a diplomat from one of the major powers seeking to negotiate with Iran."If we are serious about stopping them from getting a nuclear weapons program - and I think everybody is - this was inevitably where it was going to go," he said.
SANCTIONS SKEPTICISM
Still, a Western diplomat said he expected no major movement on the nuclear issue from Iran either before or directly after its parliamentary elections next month, saying there was "paralysis in Tehran" caused by jockeying for power. An American expert on Iran said the White House might prefer no negotiations this year because Obama's political opponents could criticize the president as soft on Tehran for holding talks, especially if discussions faltered.
An unstated goal of the new sanctions is to demonstrate to Israel and the U.S. Congress that Obama is serious about putting pressure on Tehran, in an effort to persuade Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear sites. The fear of war breaking out from Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz or an Israeli air strike has led countries to see sanctions as the lesser hardship. "The impact of that is far greater than the Japanese, South Koreans or Greeks having to find new supplies of oil," said Juan Zarate, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "People are willing to contemplate the costly boomerang effects and are willing to absorb them in a way that they might not have five years ago."But whether the sanctions prompt Iran to change course remains an open question.
"The great irony in all this is that the policy is working, but I don't think it's going to work," said Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. "The problem is that it feels like the regime doesn't care. The regime is willing to absorb all of this damage," Pollack said. "They may simply be impervious."
(Additional reporting By Roberta Rampton, Andrew Quinn and Rachelle Younglai; editing by Warren Strobel and Mohammad Zargham)

...
U.S. intelligence officials: Iran not about to abandon nuclear program, but unlikely to provoke conflict
By Natasha Mozgovaya/Haaretz /Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess adds that Iran could engage terrorist proxies; Director of National Intelligence says U.S. does not believe Israel has decided to strike Iran in spring. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said Thursday that Iran is not close to abandoning its nuclear program, but is also unlikely to intentionally provoke conflict. According to Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, director of the agency, Iran has the "technical, scientific and industrial capability to eventually produce nuclear weapons." The ballistic missiles it is currently developing could reach distances across the region and as far as Central Europe, said Burgess. He added that Iran could seek to engage terrorist proxies worldwide. Burgess spoke at a Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee dedicated to the Worldwide Threats to the National Security of the United States. Burgess said that despite growing international pressure on Iran, it is "not close" to agreeing to abandon its nuclear program, but added that "the agency assesses Iran as unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict." James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, said the U.S. was confident that Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, should its leaders – particularly the Supreme Leader – choose to do so. Iran's technical advances, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthen that assessment, said Clapper. "We believe the decision would be made by the Supreme Leader himself, and he would base that on a cost-benefit analysis," said Clapper, adding, "I don't think you want a nuclear weapon at any price." Clapper went on to say that sanctions were an effective way of inducing change in Iran's policy and behavior. The Iranian leadership has not yet finalized a decision to make the bomb, said Clapper, and would not be prepared to make it at any cost, so sanctions could still work if Tehran felt the stability of the regime was threatened. Clapper agreed with the assessment of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta that it would probably take one year for Iran to produce a bomb, "and then possibly another one or two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort," but added that it might take even longer. "It is technically feasible but practically not likely," said Clapper. "There are all kinds of combinations and permutations that could affect how long it might take, should the Iranians make a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon, however long that might take." The Director of National Intelligence also referred to Israel, saying the U.S. does not believe Jerusalem has made a decision yet to strike Iran. Responding to reports that Israel might strike in spring, he said, "What could have given rise to this is simply the fact that the weather becomes better, obviously, in the spring, and that could be conducive to an attack. But we do not believe they made such a decision."
Clapper added that he will be flying to Israel next week to discuss a potential strike on Iran with Israeli intelligence officials.

Iran: Our satellite photographed Israel's Dimona reactor, IDF bases
By Zvi Bar'el /Haaretz
Iran and the West are now competing over who is getting more stressed - Europe over the possible disruption of oil flow, or Tehran, which has been busy uncovering new technologies.
Iran and the West are now competing over who is getting more stressed: Europe that feared on Wednesday that Iran was about to cut the oil line, or Iran, which has been consistently busy uncovering new technologies. In one example, the Iranian website Mashreq claimed that the recently launched Navid-class satellite was able to take detailed photographs of the nuclear reactor in Dimona as well as "sensitive sites, air forces bases, and various areas of Tel Aviv." Iran also displayed its ability to produce its own nuclear fuel on Wednesday, thus claiming to release itself from a dependence on the West, displaying its fuel rod before the IAEA inspectors. Later, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that Iran was about to christen a new base geared at launching satellites as heavy as one ton and that the base would be equipped and operational within the year.
On the economic level, while the West is trying to prove the sanctions are working, Iran announced it is upgrading its trade ties with India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Moreover, Iran says it is about to sign a deal with Iraq and Syria which will include cooperation in the energy sector, and plans to construct one of the largest power plants in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is also working to renew negotiations with the UN Security Council. According to Turkish sources, the talks are scheduled to begin later this month in Istanbul, hosted by the Turks.
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Iran seems busier with pre-elections political struggles on the domestic front than with the next round of sanctions. In light of the liberal parties' expected boycott of the elections on March 2, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that "the people will deal the enemy a great blow by showing up en mass at the polling stations." According to Khamenei, the "enemy" is trying to undermine the regime's legitimacy by encouraging a low turnout of voters. These are extremely important elections, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is hoping to leave behind a political legacy that will continue his policies (he is barred from serving as president again unless he waits a term). Along with Ahmadinejad's aspirations, there is also a struggle taking place in the last few months between his supports and the movements supporting Khamenei, while the liberal movements, who advocate a change in the regime, are being pushed aside. To further ensure that the opposition does not undermine the elections, the government has been trying to prevent the opposition from rallying by cutting off Internet access, monitoring the Internet, slowing down surfing speed and penetrating email and Twitter accounts of those deemed "suspects."
Yet while Iran wishes to prove that the sanctions do not harm its nuclear program and technological development, there is no doubt that its economic situation has deteriorated over the last year. Iran's currency has lost over half its value in less than three months, while conversely, prices have risen. It is very difficult to obtain raw materials for factories, and the government is now asking some subsidized industries to give up governmental aid. On the other hand, Iranian economists point to the fact that a similar crisis took place in the mid-90s, when the currency's value also dropped by 50 percent. Iran's citizens, they say, adjusted to the situation rather quickly. At the same time, economists and parliament members prefer to blame Ahmadinejad's government for its failed economic policy – which has emptied the treasury's reserves – than to point their finger at the sanctions. And yet Iran has foreign currency reserves worth about 120 billion dollars and approximately 907 tons of gold, while its foreign debt amounts to between 12 and 22 million dollars (depending on who you ask). Although the budget Ahmadinejad submitted to the parliament included certain cuts of 6.5 percent, he has also declared he intends to increase the development sector's budget by 20 percent. The most important aspect of that budget is that it calculated oil prices at 85 dollars per barrel, while today a barrel is worth more than 110 dollars. These discrepancies may translate into significant profit for the state, and may give Iran room to maneuver if hit with more sanctions. In light of this economic data, it seems that despite the pressure being felt by the middle class these days – a class that does not support the president anyway – it is doubtful that the current scope of sanctions can change the government's policies, especially during an election year. Israel can still take some comfort in a survey conducted by the American Pew Research Center, which found that 39 percent of Americans think the U.S. should help Israel take action against Iran (meaning a military strike). According to the poll, most of the Americans (62 percent) who support military action against Iran are Republicans, while a third who oppose such action are Democrats and Independents. If President Barack Obama takes these numbers seriously, it is unlikely that Israel will be given a green light to attack Iran during his term.

US sets sanctions on Iran's Intelligence Ministry
Reuters /US accuses Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security of supporting terrorism, abusing human rights; Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad calls for renewed talks with US, CNN reports
The United States on Thursday announced sanctions on Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), which it accused of supporting terrorism, abusing the human rights of Iranian citizens and supporting the Syrian government's crackdown. "Today we have designated the MOIS for abusing the basic rights of Iranian citizens and exporting its vicious practices to support the Syrian regime's abhorrent crackdown on its own population," David Cohen, the US Treasury's under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement.
MOIS also provides support for al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda in Iraq, Hezbollah and Hamas, "exposing the extent of Iran's sponsorship of terrorism as a matter of Iranian state policy," Cohen said.
The move is the latest in a series of steps the United States has taken to increase pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes.
It bars MOIS officials from travelling to the United States, blocks any property MOIS owns in the US and prevents US citizens or companies from dealings with MOIS.
Letter asks for renewed talks
Meanwhile, CNN reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has offered to resume talks over his country's nuclear program, according to a letter he sent to the European Union.CNN said it had obtained a copy of the letter as Iran announced new steps in its nuclear program.
Earlier Thursday, US intelligence officials said that if Iran is attacked over its alleged nuclear weapons program, it could retaliate by closing the Gulf's Strait of Hormuz to ships and launch missiles at regional US forces and allies.
Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess said Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict.
Burgess and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said they do not believe that Israel has decided to strike Iran.
'Iran hasn't decided on atom weapon'
On the other side of the Capitol, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said intelligence shows that Iran is continuing to enrich uranium but that Tehran has not made a decision to proceed with developing a nuclear weapon. The former CIA director said the United States is open to negotiations with Iran to find a diplomatic solution, but he said the US keeps all options on the table to ensure that Tehran does not acquire a nuclear weapon.
Clapper said it's "technically feasible" that Tehran could produce a nuclear weapon in one or two years, if its leaders decide to build one, "but practically not likely."
On Wednesday, the Obama administration said it began efforts to press the European Union and a global electronic banking system to expel Iranian banks from the network, another step in Western efforts to deprive Tehran of funds needed to develop nuclear weapons.
Kicking Iranian banks out of the Belgium-based SWIFT or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, would cut off one of the only remaining avenues for Iran to do business with the rest of the world.
**Yizthak Benhorin contributed to the report

UN General Assembly condemns Bashar Assad
By Shlomo Shamir and Reuters
Resolution receives 137 votes in favor, 12
gainst and 17 abstentions, though three countries said their votes failed to register on the electronic board. The 193-nation UN General Assembly ratcheted up the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday by overwhelmingly approving a resolution that endorses an Arab League plan calling for him to step aside.
The resolution, similar to one Russia and China vetoed in the Security Council on Feb. 4, received 137 votes in favor, 12 against and 17 abstentions, though three countries said their votes failed to register on the electronic board. Russia and China were among those opposing the resolution, which was drafted by Saudi Arabia and submitted by Egypt on behalf of Arab states. Unlike in the Security Council, there are no vetoes in the General Assembly, but its decisions lack the legal force of council resolutions. "Today the UN General Assembly sent a clear message to the people of Syria - the world is with you," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said in a statement.
"An overwhelming majority of UN member states have backed the plan put forward by the Arab League to end the suffering of Syrians," she said. "Bashar Assad has never been more isolated." The resolution said the assembly "fully supports" the Arab League plan aimed at halting Syria's 11-month crackdown on anti-Assad demonstrators and urges UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to appoint a special envoy to Syria. It also condemns Damascus for "widespread and systematic violations of human rights" and calls for the withdrawal of Syrian forces from towns and cities. The United Nations says more than 5,400 civilians have been killed in the uprising.
Syrian Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari rejected the resolution, telling the assembly it was part of a plot to overthrow Syria's government and allow the "terrorist" opposition to take over the country. "We have deep concerns vis-a-vis the real intentions of the countries that have co-sponsored this draft, particularly that these countries are leading a political and media aggression against Syria," he said. Those countries, Ja'afari said, are providing "all media, financial and political support to the armed terrorist groups and securing them coverage in international fora." New Security Council move? Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said the resolution "reflects the worrying trend ... to attempt to isolate the Syrian leadership, to reject any contact with it and to impose an external formula for a political settlement."
Earlier this week, Arab countries rejected proposed Russian amendments to the resolution that would have sought to blame Syria's government and opposition equally for the violence. Western diplomats said before the vote that a large majority in favor of the resolution would increase the pressure on Assad to comply with the Arab League plan, and would highlight the isolation of Russia and China on the issue. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Bolivia were among other countries that voted against the resolution and whose delegates voiced support for the Syrian government. France and other Western powers have suggested that they would like to make a third attempt to persuade Russia not to block action on Syria in the Security Council. But UN diplomats say there are no signs Moscow is prepared to allow the 15-nation panel to pass any condemnation of Syria. Before their Feb. 4 double veto, Moscow and Beijing, which oppose what they see as foreign interference in Syria, also knocked down a European-drafted resolution in October that would have condemned Damascus and threatened it with sanctions.
British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said Thursday's vote "sent a clear signal of the international community's condemnation of the Syrian regime's actions and intention to hold to account those responsible for the ongoing atrocities." Egypt's deputy UN ambassador, Osama Abdul-Khaleq, said the resolution was a message to Damascus that it was "high time to listen to the voice of its people." The league has called for the establishment of a joint UN-Arab League peacekeeping mission for Syria, but Western powers have reacted coolly to the idea and Thursday's resolution did not endorse it. In a bitter concluding statement, Ja'afari blasted what he called the Arab League's "shameful position," which he said was aimed at "the settling of political accounts with Syria." "Good luck to the Arab League in implementing the tasks entrusted to it by Israel," he said. "Congratulations for this new alliance between the League of Arab States and Israel and the historical enemies of Syria.

The media does not prevent massacres
By Diana Mukkaled/Asharq Alawsat
We will continue to write about how the Syrian protesters have changed the media industry long into the future. Over the past 11 months, hundreds of protesters have documented the situation in Syria, carrying out a coup in the world’s understanding of journalism and media, in a manner that has not been seen anywhere else in the world. For what is coming out of Syria at the hands of the Syrian protesters themselves is more than just news and images, this is akin to a live broadcast [regarding what is happening on the ground], to the point that the traditional media, particularly the television media, cannot compete with this. However this unique situation that is taking place in Syria has an extremely high price; hundreds of Syrian revolutionary youth have made the ultimate sacrifice to ensure that news and images of the Syrian revolution reach the wider world, being killed and tortured at the hands of the al-Assad regime. The latest example is that of citizen journalist Amr al-Suri, who was killed last week trying to aid the wounded in Homs. The images and news of violence in Syria predict that this is only going to get worse. Looking at images of violence taken in the city of Homs, we can only express our huge disappointment that the courage being shown by the Syrian protesters to document their revolution and the violence being committed by the al-Assad regime does not afford them even the minimum amount of protection. The painful images taken in Syria by brave youth who could die at any moment – or indeed perhaps have already been killed – will unfortunately not prompt any change in the situation or the actions of the al-Assad killing machine which will continue its path of violence and bloodshed until the end. Before the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, we would say that the Hama massacre that was carried out by the totalitarian regime in Syria during the 1980s and which resulted in thousands of deaths would never have occurred – or at least would not have occurred in this manner – if the media was present and documenting what was happening, which is what is taking place today in Syria.
Even when the protest movement began, and the regime attempted to impose a media blackout on the country, the Syrian people invented new ways to document and reveal what was happening on the ground in the hope that this would restrict the violence and bloodshed of the regime. However the bitter truth that we must perhaps now acknowledge is that all of these images and videos, and all the sacrifices made by the Syrian youth to broadcast and reveal this to the world at large, have been in vain and failed to prevent unprecedented levels of violence being carried out against Syrian protesters and unarmed civilians. The logic that claimed that if the media was present the Hama massacre would never have occurred has been proven false. For a massacre is truly taking place in Homs today, in front of the eyes of the world. The al-Assad forces and pro-regime Shabiha militia are carrying out a campaign of systematic violence against the Syrian people whilst the world looks on, and so nothing has changed!
However this does not mean that documenting what is happening, and the media, will not have a role to play in reducing such massacres. Pictures of shells bombarding Homs, and scenes of youth being killed may not protect the Syrian people from the violence and bloodshed of the al-Assad forces and the pro-regime Shabiha militia, but these may serve as historical documentation and condemnation to prevent such scenes from being repeated in Syria in the future.

Hezbollah denies responsibility for attempted terror attacks against Israeli targets
By Reuters and Haaretz/Hassan Nasrallah says group 'has nothing to do' with attacks in India, Georgia and Thailand, but that revenge for leader Imad Mughniyah's assassination still to come. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied Israeli accusations on Thursday that his group was behind bombers who targeted Israeli missions in India and Georgia this week. "I assure you that Hezbollah has nothing to do with this, he told supporters. Israel accused Iran and Hezbollah of being behind twin bomb attacks that targeted Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia on Monday, wounding four people. Nasrallah added, though, that Hezbollah still intends to avenge the assassination of Hezbollah's deputy leader Imad Mughniyah. Earlier on Thursday, it was reported that Malaysia is set to extradite an Iranian national arrested over suspected links to a attempted bomb attack in Bangkok earlier this week. The report came after, on Wednesday, Israeli Ambassador to Thailand Itzhak Shoham said the bombs discovered in a Bangkok house after a series of blasts in the Thai capital were similar to those used in attacks on Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia, adding that "we can assume from the other experiences that we were the target." Four Thai civilians were wounded in Bangkok in a series of blasts that began Tuesday when a cache of explosives ignited at a house, apparently by mistake. One explosion blew off the leg of an Iranian who had fled, carrying what looked like grenades. The bombs discovered in a Bangkok house after a series of blasts in the Thai capital were similar to those used in attacks on Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia, the Israeli ambassador said Wednesday.

Canada Welcomes UN Resolution Against Syrian Regime
February 16, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
“The undeniable broad support for this resolution demonstrates the growing isolation of the Assad regime.
“The resolution sends a strong message to the Assad regime that it must immediately halt the indiscriminate killing of its own people.
“We continue to call on Assad to step down immediately, and allow for a peaceful transition to a society that respects the fundamental rights of its people.
“We will continue to work with our international partners to bring pressure to bear on this irresponsible and illegitimate regime.”
The UN General Assembly voted 137 in favour of the resolution and 12 against, with 17 abstentions.

Canada Calls on Iran to Halt Execution
February 16, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird issued the following statement concerning reports that Iran may soon execute Iranian citizen Saeed Malekpour:
“Canada is deeply concerned about reports of the possible imminent execution of Iranian citizen Saeed Malekpour. “We appeal to the Government of Iran to commute this sentence on humanitarian and compassionate grounds. Canada is deeply concerned when individuals fail to receive a fair trial, in accordance with international human rights. “We urge Iran to reverse its current course, and live up to its international human rights obligations.”Mr. Malekpour has been in prison since 2008.

ICC, Ethiopian Community to Hold Demonstration Demanding Saudis Release Ethiopian Christian Prisoners
Washington, D.C. (February 16, 2012) – International Christian Concern (ICC) and the Ethiopian community in Washington DC will be holding a public protest demanding Saudi Arabia release 35 Ethiopian Christians arrested for praying at a private home on December 15. The protest will be held on February 21, at 10 am in front of the Saudi Arabian Embassy located at 601 New Hampshire Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037.
Saudi Arabian government officials have severely mistreated the prisoners because of their Christian faith. The Saudi Arabian officials assaulted the men and strip searched the female prisoners when they were imprisoned. In early February, the Saudis also began pressuring the Christians to convert to Islam.
Speaking to ICC from Briman jail in Jeddah, one of the female prisoners said, “Why don’t they release us? We want to go back to our country and worship freely.” In a message to Christians around the world, another prisoner said, “We want you to help us to get out of prison in every way you can. Please tell your governments about our plight, contact human rights organizations and others and inform them about us.”
Kebadu Belachew, an Ethiopian-American human rights activist and one of the organizers of the rally said, “These are law-abiding Ethiopian citizens. They were simply arrested for practicing their faith at a private home. The Saudi government should set them free. We are organizing this protest as part of the effort to set them free.”
ICC’s Jonathan Racho said, “We urge all those concerned in the Washington D.C. area to participate in this protest. Saudi Arabian officials have refused to release the Christians despite quiet diplomatic pressure. We must raise our voices and demand the Saudis release the prisoners who were imprisoned simply for praying together.”
Please sign this petition asking the Saudi Arabian government to release the Christian prisoners.
Call the Saudi Arabian Embassy in your country and ask them to release the prisoners.
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Canada's Statement on First Anniversary of Libyan Revolution
February 16, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
“Canada congratulates the people of Libya on the first anniversary of the February 17 pro-democracy uprising.
“In just one year, the Libyan people have realized a dramatic transformation in their country. Although there is much work to be done, Libyans have laid the foundation to build a more inclusive, open and democratic society.
“The upcoming elections, expected in June, will provide a historic opportunity to continue that work.
“The courage and sacrifice of the Libyan people secured a better and brighter future for themselves and their fellow citizens. They turned the page on a brutal, repressive dictator who ruled their country and tormented the Libyan people for over 40 years.
“Canada is proud to have played a leading role in the UN-sanctioned NATO mission that helped protect civilians during the liberation of Libya.
“Libya has a partner in Canada, as the country continues to make strides to provide greater opportunities for its people.”

Canada  Welcomes Acquittal of Canadian Held in Bahrain
February 16, 2012 - The Honourable Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs), made the following statement on learning that Canadian Naser Al-Raas was cleared today of all charges by the Bahrain Appeal Court:
“We are pleased that Mr. Al-Raas has been acquitted by the Bahraini Appeal Court. We would like to express our appreciation to the Bahraini authorities for, in the case of Mr. Al-Raas, applying the recommendations made by the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry to ensure, among other things, free political expression and protection from arbitrary detention. “Consular officials in Ottawa, Riyadh and Manama are in contact with Mr. Al-Raas and his family in both Bahrain and Canada. We are providing consular assistance and encourage his return to safety in Canada.”

Nasrallah open to unconditional dialogue
February 17, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaks via a video link, during a rally marking the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah's top military commander Imad Mughniyeh.
BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah accused March 14 parties Thursday of financing and arming Syrian opposition groups fighting to oust President Bashar Assad, but left the door open for dialogue.Nasrallah said he was ready for unconditional dialogue with the Future Movement-led opposition March 14 parties, which maintain that the divisive issue of Hezbollah’s arsenal should be the only topic of discussion at any such session. He also renewed his support for Assad and accused Western and Arab states of seeking to topple the embattled president, who he said had presented a series of political reforms that could end Syria’s 11-month-old crisis. Nasrallah also lashed out at speeches made by March 14 leaders at a rally at the Beirut International Exhibition and Leisure center Tuesday marking the seventh anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
“Why are you fighting with money and arms and all of you in March 14 are involved in escalating the fighting in Syria? In your speeches, you concentrated the campaign on Syria, but on what basis? Is this in the interests of Lebanon and in the interests of Christians and Muslims in it?” he asked. “Do Syria’s laws permit you to send arms and play off the Syrians against each other? I call on you to stay calm.”
Addressing an annual Hezbollah rally to commemorate slain resistance leaders in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Nasrallah said March 14 leaders, who have publicly voiced strong support for the uprising against Assad’s 11-year rule, are betting on the downfall of the regime in Syria.
“They [March 14 leaders] are confident that the regime in Syria will collapse as they were confident in previous unsuccessful bets,” Nasrallah said via video link transmitted to a giant screen. “With regard to Syria, why don’t you be neutral?” he added.
He asked March 14 leaders about their plans for Lebanon if Syria drifted toward a civil war, which he accused the U.S. and Israel of working to ignite, or if Assad survived the revolt.
Nasrallah also spurned Hariri’s call on the party to surrender its arms to Lebanese authorities, saying arms were needed to defend Lebanon against any possible Israeli attack.
However, he did not reject outright Hariri’s call for dialogue on Hezbollah’s arms, a major bone of contention between the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and the March 14 coalition.
“When we talk about the resistance’s arms, we have one justification: Our arms are to defend Lebanon and liberate the land. Even if there is no piece of arms with any Lebanese, we will keep our arms to defend Lebanon,” he said.“We have said that we are increasing our armament both in quality and quantity. There are known arms and also hidden and unknown arms,” he added, clearly referring to advanced weapons the party is believed to possess. “We always have to keep surprises for the Israelis.”
Referring to Hariri’s readiness for talks with Hezbollah, Nasrallah said March 14 leaders were not in a position to impose conditions on any dialogue or to give guarantees for Lebanon’s stability. “Any call for national dialogue without any preconditions is acceptable and we support it and we will participate in it ... But if the call for dialogue is with conditions, then this is not a call for dialogue,” he said.
Nasrallah added that Hariri’s call for dialogue was “ambiguous” and wanted to know whether such a call was with or without conditions. “Is the dialogue with prior results or without prior results?” he asked.
Responding to Hariri’s pledge to prevent any Sunni-Shiite strife as a result of the repercussions of the uprising in Syria, Nasrallah said: “The one who is keen on preventing strife between the Shiites and Sunnis must work to stop his MPs and media outlets from sectarian incitement.”
“We are for dialogue without conditions and we are open. The choice of the Lebanese is to be with each other. We support stability in Lebanon and the continuation of the current government,” he added.
Nasrallah also ignored Hariri’s call on Hezbollah to reconsider its hostile stance on the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is trying to uncover the killers of his father, by handing over the four party members indicted by the STL. Hezbollah has vowed never to turn over the four suspects.
Nasrallah accused some Arab states of colluding with the U.S, and Israel to topple the Assad regime. “There is an Arab, Western, American and Israeli insistence that there be no solution in Syria and on toppling the regime in Syria,” he said.In his speech, Nasrallah denied Hezbollah was involved in a series of bombings in India, Georgia and Thailand against Israeli diplomats. “I can confirm that Hezbollah had nothing to do with these bombings,” Nasrallah said. Israel has accused Iran and Hezbollah of being involved in botched plots this week targeting Israeli diplomats in these countries. Iran has denied the charges. Nasrallah also vowed his group would avenge the killing of Imad Mughniyeh, a top Hezbollah security official killed in a mysterious 2008 car bombing in Syria.
“Our revenge will not be against Israeli soldiers or diplomats; it is actually offensive for Hezbollah to avenge a great leader by killing regular Israelis,” Nasrallah said. “But those who are the real targets know themselves and they are taking measures and I say to them: Stay this way because as long as blood runs through the veins of Hezbollah members there will come a day when we will avenge Imad Mughniyeh’s killing in an honorable manner.”

March 14 coalition MP Marwan Hamadeh accuses Iran, Syria of Lebanon assassinations
February 16, 2012/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: March 14 coalition MP Marwan Hamadeh accused Iran and Syria for the spate of assassinations in Lebanon between 2004 and 2010 and urged Hezbollah to hand over the four suspects indicted in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. "Decisions behind the assassinations were taken in capitals like Tehran and yesterday's Damascus, not today," Hamadeh told the Kataeb-run Voice of Lebanon Radio station. “[I] urge Hezbollah to hand over the accused to prevent [the party] from breaching Lebanese and international justice and not to hold on to its weapons so that it will not breach [domestic] jurisdiction,” he added. Hamadeh’s words echo former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s remarks earlier this week calling on the resistance to hand over the four suspects, all members of Hezbollah, indicted in the assassination of statesman Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah has described the four suspects – Salim Jamil Ayyash, Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Hussein Hassan Oneissi, Assad Hassan – as “honorable men” of the resistance. During his speech Tuesday commemorating the seventh anniversary of his father’s assassination, Saad Hariri said Hezbollah’s refusal to hand over the accused would implicate the party. The U.N.-backed court has established that there are links between Hariri's assassination and the attempted assassination of Hamdeh and former Deputy Prime Minister Elias Murr, who was targeted on July 12, 2005. Hamadeh survived a car bomb attack October 2004 that left him severely wounded.

Sheikh Mohammad Ali Husseini imprisoned for collaborating with Israel
February 17, 2012/By Youssef Diab The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Military Tribunal sentenced Thursday a Shiite Muslim preacher – who headed an anti-Israel resistance group – to five years in prison for collaborating with Israel, a judicial source told The Daily Star. The sentence against Sheikh Mohammad Ali Husseini was handed down by the tribunal headed by Brigadier Nizar Khalil. Husseini was convicted of “contacting the Israeli enemy and its intelligence service, dealing with other foreign states that have security dealings with Israel and possessing unlicensed military arms,” the source said. Husseini, who was also stripped of his civil rights, ran the Arab-Islamic Resistance movement and claimed responsibility for firing rockets toward Israel three years ago. Husseini was arrested in May by Lebanese intelligence personnel at his apartment in the Riz complex, east of the southern port city of Tyre and taken to the Defense Ministry in Yarze, east Beirut, for questioning. The Lebanese intelligence unit also confiscated a number of computers, communication equipment and documents from Husseini’s home. Reporters based in south Lebanon claim Husseini – who is critical of both Hezbollah and the Amal Movement of Speaker Nabih Berri – carried out a simulation of a military maneuver in 2008.

Standing up to Assad
Tony Badran, February 16, 2012
Now Lebanon/President Barack Obama needs to stop hoping for a peaceful political solution to the crisis in Syria and needs to prepare a military component to its strategy. Washington persists in the belief that Russia can be swayed to withdraw its support for the Assad regime in Syria, thereby falling in line with US policy. The White House has called for Assad to step aside, but continues to state that it seeks a “peaceful political solution.” However, this position is not only detached from reality, it also plays into the hands of the Russians, who insist on a political solution of their own – one that keeps Bashar al-Assad in power. Either the Obama administration doesn't see it, or just doesn't want to admit it, but Washington and Moscow are at odds. Russia is not going to change its position.
Before exercising their veto earlier this month, the Russians insisted on language that called on the Syrian opposition to “dissociate themselves from armed groups.” Of course, Moscow’s veto only served to highlight what is rapidly becoming a matter of broad consensus – that the armed resistance to the Assad regime will take center stage in the next phase of the struggle to topple the Syrian dictator.
Yet instead of crafting a military component to its policy in order to maintain a measure of influence on what is likely to be a protracted armed conflict, the Obama administration remains wedded to the fantasy of a “peaceful transition.” “We believe the right solution in Syria is a political solution,” the White House maintains. But when the administration actually fleshes out what it means by “political solution,” it reveals dangerously confused thinking. Perhaps the administration believes that a shift in Russia’s position will compel Assad to accept the Arab League initiative to relinquish power. However, this is a misreading of the Kremlin’s stance.
The Russian plan, which has been in the works for a while, aims at shifting the pressure onto the political opposition groups in the hope of co-opting parts of them in a dialogue, or even a joint cabinet, with Assad, thus leaving the armed groups under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) entirely isolated. The problem is that the Obama administration continues to operate largely within the same parameters that the Russians have laid out. In fact, its unsatisfactory public messaging often seems to lend credibility to the Russians’ proposal of a so-called “dialogue” between the regime and the political opposition. For instance, the State Department’s spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, has told reporters that the administration thinks “the answer is to get to a national democratic dialogue.” At this stage, rehashing such obsolete talking points is counterproductive, especially in light of Russia’s transparent maneuver.
The idea of a national dialogue is divorced from reality. The disconnect in the administration’s rhetoric was perfectly captured in a Facebook note by the US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford. Ford emphasized Washington’s support for a “peaceful transition,” [italics original] adding that “such a transition is possible, but not when one side constantly initiates attacks against people taking shelter in their homes.” Ford’s optimism aside, the caveat at the end is precisely what makes the administration’s approach unworkable. The political solution sought by the administration is not on the radar of any of the relevant actors, least of all the people still braving death to overthrow Assad.
Ford went even further, telling France 24 that what the administration means by “transition” is a “gradual opening” of the Syrian regime. Ford is said to be the point man of the administration’s contacts with activists inside Syria. Surely the administration realizes the detrimental message this kind of language sends to the opposition. The objective of US policy is the end of the Assad regime. What Ford suggested, on the other hand, is precisely what Moscow has in mind: “gradual” reform that keeps Assad in place.
The confusion characterizing Ford’s statements raises troubling questions about US policy. If the idea remains converting the Russians – as the thrust of the administration’s talking points suggests – it is a fool’s errand that the Kremlin will exploit to its advantage. Just because the Obama administration is not eager to aggressively advance its interests in Syria, it doesn’t mean Russia – or Iran – will follow suit.
In fact, Moscow and Tehran support Assad militarily. The administration, meanwhile, has outlined four avenues it intends to pursue: more sanctions, shaming Assad’s arms suppliers, supporting the political opposition in charting a way forward, and seeking to provide humanitarian relief, though the mechanism to deliver it is unclear.
All of this is fine, but it’s also clearly insufficient and, in several respects, secondary. Helping the Syrian National Council (SNC) is good, but it is armed groups like the FSA that are on the ground with the protesters, keeping certain neighborhoods from being retaken by Assad’s thugs. As the conflict grinds on, their prominence is only set to increase.
Many influential voices in Washington, including in Congress, recognize this and have begun asking for more aggressive steps, and a specific policy toward the armed opposition. Just as the Russian strategy aims at helping Assad suffocate the FSA, US policy should now begin exploring ways to help organize, train and support it. There has to be a military component to the administration’s overall strategy. If this wasn’t clear from the beginning, it’s manifestly evident today.
But it’s the president who sets policy, and Obama told NBC he thinks “it is very important for us to try to resolve this without recourse to outside military intervention. And I think that’s possible.”
Few seem convinced. Russia and Iran understand full well which side they’re on, and what they need to do to ensure that their side wins, which is why they have consistently intervened on Assad’s side. To secure US interests, and not merely be content with a policy of extrication from the region, President Obama needs to come to that same realization to ensure that Assad loses.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.


The decline of the west and the world disorder
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
With the West in terminal decline what is to become of the world order? The question is making the rounds in intellectual circles around the globe.
The other day, a Chinese analyst told the BBC that Europe had become “a museum for tourists from emerging nations”. In New Delhi, speculation about India’s global leadership is hot at dinner tables. In Tehran, official news agencies publish reports about the “imminent end of the American Great Satan” almost every day. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad peppers his talks with an “America is finished” wave of a hand.
In Europe and the United States talk of the “dying West” has bred a whole industry, known as “declinism”.
European and American television channels air talk-shows with declinist stars some of whom advise the West to bow out with good grace while others counsel a quest for a side-chair at the table of the future. Tomes with such titles as “The Post-American World” and “The End of the West” adorn the shelves of bookshops in Western capitals.
When it comes to building a new world order, however, declinists have few original ideas. They talk of a “multipolar system” in which India and Brazil become permanent members of the United Nations’ Security Council.
Before we examine the declinists’ “solutions” let us have a look at the premise of their theory.
A Western invention, the concept of decline has a long history. Thucydides saw its seeds in the Peloponnesian wars while Tacitus thought that the West peaked with Augustus. In the 19th century, Schopenhauer saw a West in decline. However, old declinists offered less comical arguments than their current imitators. (One Indo-American declinist asserts that because there are more mobile ‘phones in India than the United States the latter is in decline and the former in the ascendancy.)
Is the West really in decline?
If we take the West as a way of life, that is to say a version of civilisation based on capitalism, democracy and the rule of law, the term would apply to many countries outside Europe and North America, notably Japan, India and Brazil. In that sense, even Russia and China have embarked on a long trek to Westernisation.
As a way of life, “the West” now has no rivals outside North Korea. The other recluse, Burma, is trying to take the Western path while in Iran we have a Westernised society alongside a Soviet-style regime using a religious jargon.
As a model, therefore, far from being in decline, the West is at an historic peak of popularity.
It is in that sense that despots and dictators of all shades regard “the West” as enemy and pray for its decline and fall.
Even if we limit “the West” to its geographical dimension, the European Union and North America, the declinist theory could be challenged.
The two regions account for 10 per cent of the world’s population but claim almost 60 per cent of the global economy. They have 90 per cent of new patents and more than 80 per cent of scientific and technological innovations. Although cultural production is booming in many parts of the world, and this is certainly good news, the West’s literary and artistic scenes offer no evidence of decline.
Even in these days of economic slowdown, this “West” still maintains a modest rate of growth. To be sure, many countries of this “West” have large debts, at times approaching 100 per cent of gross domestic product. One reason for this, however, may be that people are willing, indeed keen, to lend to this “West” even at historically low interest rates. In contrast, despite usurious interest rates, Iran, for example, is unable to attract foreign investment.
When it comes to demography, the old “West” is not doing badly either. It does not suffer from the exploding birth-rates of “developing nations” but is not caught in demographic dead-end created by one-child policy in China and forced sterilization in India. Unlike Russia, the “West” does not face the threat of demographic meltdown.
Put to other tests, the old “West” would again appear in good shape. It is a space virtually free of prisoners of conscience while, by any yardsticks, it performs better than international averages in areas of social justice and equal opportunities. Although the condition of women in the West is far from perfect, the fact remains that, here, there is no gender apartheid.
What about the “solutions” that declinists offer for a non-existent problem?
Talk of “multipolarism” makes as much sense in politics as in geometry. By definition, you cannot have more than two poles, standing at opposite points.
One could have a world order based on a single centre of power, as was the case in the Congress of Vienna and, later, the Berlin Conference. In both cases, a handful of European powers claimed global domination and tried to divide the world among themselves.
One could also imagine a world in which several medium powers compete and eventually go to war over regional and/or global ambitions. This was the situation between the two world wars when the United States was in an isolationist mood while Soviet Russia, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, militarist Japan and Imperialist Britain and France fought to protect or enlarge spheres of influence.
During the Cold War, there was a bipolar world order with the United States and the USSR heading rival blocs.
What we now have is an absence of global leadership, not a decline of the West.
Under President Barack Obama, the United States is trying to take the backseat wherever possible. This is partly prompted by the fact that Obama’s core supporters confuse a leadership role for the United States with Imperialism. Also, many Americans, perhaps a majority, are tired of a decade of war in distant places, in the name of global leadership. Even the strongest team needs the breathing space that half-time provides. The question is how long the half-time lasts? If it lasts too long we could be heading for world disorder generating wars until a new global balance of power emerges.

Those who Permit Violence or Those Who Refuse to Stop it?
Farid Ghadry Blog/Reform Party of Syria
"Not providing the Free Syrian Army with weapons and not providing an immediate humanitarian solution to the killing of innocent civilians is immoral."
With one foot by the Mediterranean and the other one by the Atlantic, the big ugly picture I see is truly panoramic.
The contrast between the savage use of force against Syrians in search of their own voices of freedom and the stubborn attitude of Washington waiting for a Syrian regime implosion the CIA considers a high probability makes you restive. The "What-if" scenarios playing in your head are like a broken vinyl from another high probability calculation that went awry or was missed.
Those who do the analysis do not watch videos streaming from Syria and those who watch the videos cannot manage the cold analysis. The Levant politics has always been about a Ying and Yang where people talk to each other with their backs against one another. Syrians know it too well when discussing al-Mukawama with the same breath of discussing economic equality and the Israelis know it even better when discussing their own security against a background of hate by not just their neighbors.
But what baffles the mind is the lack of will for a band-aid solution (No more Arab League observers please) in the form of humanitarian corridors supported by No-Fly and No-Go Zones.
The landscape in Syria today is a series of dotted lines of fire across its four corners. Eruptions are being recorded in the eastern small town of Bou Kamal on the Iraqi borders, in Damascus in the southwest, in Dara'a in the south, in Homs in the center, in Idlib in northwest, and in Deir El-Sour and Qamoshli in the north.
Against this difficult background, the task of a humanitarian effort becomes more complicated. But a solution, if the will exists, is not an impossibility.
Assad is surrounded by either state or clannish enemies across Syria's five borders. He fears the borders of Lebanon via Tripoli, the borders with Jordan, the tribes in western Iraq, the Turkish heavy-footed demeanor with its long borders, and of course Israel across from the Golan, which is not expected to shift from its N gear.
Either one or several of those borders and open regions can be used to create humanitarian corridors with one No-Gone Zone (Even the use of the Golan to protect the Druze communities of Sweida). If implemented, it would create three pressure points that any Russian or Iranian counter-response would destroy totally their credibility on the stage of public opinion. You might as well sell all your Olympics Sochi tickets to the Iranian Mullahs and the Assad terrorists.
Several corridors at once will either spread Assad thin or his armies will play contortionists by retreating to protect Damascus. The damage would shrink considerably.
Establish a No-Go Zone in the Sahel area, location of the strongholds of the Alawite and the Christian minorities. This will have two positive effects: 1) The west would be insuring the safety of the civilian minorities from any acts of revenge and, 2) It will isolate the Alawites around Assad involved in the terror from their families in the Sahel. This will have a considerable psychological effect on both by giving the civilian minorities the opportunity to revolt. Provide preemptive training facilities to the Free Syrian Army as a contingency but also as a message to Assad. Why? Because we cannot let Assad think that we are waiting for him for every Chess move we make. He needs to predict our several next moves in order for him to see the high probability the CIA sees. More importantly, if the Sahel sees it, he will be abandoned by the very same people who fear him the most. Not providing the Free Syrian Army with weapons and not providing an immediate humanitarian solution to the killing of innocent civilians is immoral. The west and the Arab League can keep this going for only so long. After that, there will be no difference between those permitting the killing and those talking but doing nothing to stop the killings.

Failed logic
By Mshari Al-Zaydi
Asharq Alawsat
Those able to watch the Syrian media speaking on behalf of the regime will find wonders and marvels being recorded and broadcast.
For example, there are the “Addounia TV” and “Syrian News” channels that are waging a campaign against Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, in the belief that these states are leading the campaign against the Bashar al-Assad regime, whose tanks and troops are attacking the Syrian cities of Homs, Hama, Idlib, and elsewhere.
These channels have filmed more than one news report including comments from the Syrian “man in the street” on the recent speech issued by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal to the Arab League. During this speech, Prince Saudi al-Faisal spoke about the tragic situation in Syria, and how remaining silent about this crisis represents an embarrassment to the Arab and Islamic world, particularly as the humanitarian conditions are deteriorating due to the horrific killing and displacement of the Syrian people, as well as the indiscriminate bombardment of Syrian cities by al-Assad regime forces, targeting families and unarmed civilians under the pretext of pursuing “armed elements.”
The Syrian citizens being interviewed launched verbal attacks against Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, as well as against Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal. However this is understandable, for some Syrian citizens truly do support the Damascus regime, and do not want to see this regime under siege or punished. We therefore cannot say that all Syrian citizens who appear on such reports have been “forced” to make such statements, for we must recall that even Gaddafi had his supporters in Libya, even after he was “executed” by the Libyan rebels.
However it is important to focus on what these Syrian citizens said, as well as the focus of Syrian television channels and media aligned to the Bashar al-Assad regime, with regards to portraying Syria as a civilized country and the cradle of democracy and culture. In addition to this, the Syrian citizens called on Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal to look to the state of women in Saudi Arabia, who are not allowed to drive cars, rather than speaking about Syria! The statements made by Syrian envoy to the United Nations [UN], Bashar al-Jaafari, were not far-off from this logic; he even quoted the poetry of [Syrian poet] Nizar Qabbani during the fateful UN meeting [on the fate of the draft resolution on Syria]! Al-Jaafari also said that Gulf rulers are not capable of being as eloquent as the Syrian president.
Let me tell the Syrian people that the people of the Gulf, away from rivalry and bickering, are not as you imagine, and they are well-educated. You believe that the Gulf does not enjoy the same civil history as Syria; however this history has been distorted and ruined by the al-Assad regime.
Let me tell the Syrian people that yes it is true, women in Saudi Arabia cannot drive, and that they have only now been allowed to work in stores catering to women after a bitter battle. Indeed let me pre-empt your future comments regarding Saudi women being unable to travel without the presence of a mahram, even if we are talking about a female university professor or respected lawyer who had been educated abroad. Despite this, the people of the Gulf have not seen their cities surrounded by tanks, or their people being starved or their children being killed. The people of the Gulf have not seen a protest singer being killed, his throat slashed, merely for raising his voice against the al-Assad regime. The people of the Gulf have not seen their states turned into bastions for intelligence agencies and security apparatus. The people of the Gulf do not trade with the blood of the Palestinian people in a cheap manner in order to justify suppression and corruption.How can we compare between an eloquent ruler who allows women to drive cars and one who does not kill his own people, but rather attempts to resolve this situation, regardless of the difficulties? How can we compare between a ruler who wants life for his people, and one who wants death? The Syrian president is killing his own people…so what difference does it make if he is eloquent or permits women to drive?
This is truly failed logic.

Friends, colleagues mourn loss of Anthony Shadid
February 17, 2012/By Brooke Anderson The Daily Star
BEIRUT: People across the Middle East mourned Friday the untimely death of New York Times correspondent Anthony Shadid, 43, who reportedly died a day earlier of an asthma attack while on assignment in Syria.The Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist had been in Syria for a week, reporting on the armed resistance to the Syrian government, but the authorities had not been informed of his assignment, according to The New York Times.Tyler Hicks, the photographer accompanying Shadid on the clandestine trip, crossing from Turkey to Syria on horseback, said his colleague was showing symptoms of asthma attack, which then escalated into a fatal attack. Shortly after, he took Shadid’s body to Turkey. Following the news of his death, there was an immediate outpouring of sympathy and grief from friends and colleagues, who said the profession had lost a rare journalist who understood the nuances of the Middle East and reported at great personal peril.
“This part of the world owes Anthony so much for helping the rest of world understand its plight.” Upon winning the Pulitzer Prize in 2004 for his coverage of Iraq for the Washington Post, the board noted Shadid’s "extraordinary ability to capture, at personal peril, the voices and emotions of Iraqis as their country was invaded, their leader toppled and their way of life upended."
Born to Lebanese parents in Oklahoma, he began his journalism career in the United States, later moving to the Middle East, where he learned Arabic as an adult, a skill that would allow him depth and access to the complex topics he covered. Before he rose to prominence, Shadid served as Cairo correspondent for the Associated Press, where colleagues saw the rise of a promising young reporter who would later return to cover the country’s revolution. Cairo-based Middle East analyst Hisham Kassem wrote on Facebook: “I have known Anthony since his first job as a junior reporter with AP and watched his career unfold to become one of the greatest journalists of our time.”
“I last saw Anthony in Tahrir [Square] where he stood there day and night reporting to the world the stand of this country for its freedom,” Kassem wrote.
“This part of the world owes Anthony so much for helping the rest of the world understand its plight.”
Shadid became known for finding the important in the seemingly mundane, risking his own personal safety to report on how world events affected ordinary people.
While reporting for the Boston Globe in the West Bank city of Ramallah in 2002, he was shot in the shoulder. Then, in March last year, he and three colleagues from The Times were abducted and held for three days while covering the uprising in eastern Libya.
But it would be in a remote area of Syria, where he would die of an apparent asthma attack and allergy to horses.
He left behind friends he’d made from his years of reporting there, who praised his work of bringing their stories to light in one of the world’s most tightly controlled police states.
Writing on his Syrian dissident news website All4Syria in Dubai, Ayman Abdel Nour praised his friend who brought to light the problems of censorship in Syria for a 2005 story he reported.
“His name is added to the names of journalists who have lost their lives to report about the truth of the atrocities of the [President Bashar] Assad regime, and he will remain in the memories of all Syrians,” he wrote.
Indeed, Syrians who were not necessarily part of Syria’s opposition also mourned the passing of Shadid.
“While many claim that they are 'middle east experts,' few understood the region the way he did,” wrote Ahmad Salkini, former spokesman for the Syrian Embassy in Washington.
“I had the privilege of talking and working with him, and it was depressing to see him pass away the way he did.”
In addition to being a voice for the voiceless, Shadid will also leave behind a generation of journalists who looked up to his exceptional reporting and feel indebted to him for his mentoring and generosity.
Dana Kahil Trometer, a Lebanese documentary maker based in the U.K., who met Shadid last spring when she was covering events in Syria, told The Daily Star that he was always available help fellow journalist, providing with key tips and useful contacts.
She believes that “the region will not be treated as it deserves to be without Anthony's pen.”
Bassem Mroue, who worked with Shadid at the Associated Press in Cairo, described his former colleague to The Daily Star as “a great person who loved his job and at the same time knew how to have fun.”
“He was down to earth and always helped younger journalists who were trying to learn from his wide knowledge and experience,” Mroue added.
Jackie Spinner, a former reporter for the Washington Post, who first met Shadid in 2004 in Iraq, recalls an unassuming colleague with a talent for engaging those around him.
"He had stories, and most of the time he was out trying to tell them," she recalls. "In his quiet way, he taught me how to listen to people, really listen to them. As a reporter now, I try to understand more than I try to be understood, and I learned that from Anthony."
Shadid leaves behind his wife, Nada Bakri, also a reporter for The Times based in Beirut, as well as two young children.

Arab League chief Egypt's next president?
Roi Kais/Ynetnews
Egypt's Higher Military Council joins forces with political parties in pushing Nabil Elaraby as consensus presidential candidate. Egyptian media are reporting that the Higher Military Council is negotiating with political parties about pushing Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby as a presidential candidate. The Al Masry Al Youm newspaper reported that secret meetings about Elaraby's candidacy are being held ahead of the May elections.
The meetings are being attended by representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, the liberal parties and of the Higher Military Council. According to the report, the sides have agreed on pushing Elaraby as the consensus presidential candidate. It was also decided that parliament will not make any amendments to the presidential election law which was recently approved by the Council. Meanwhile, the Gulf States are demanding that the Arab League chief be named a candidate based on his personal abilities and extensive knowledge. Al Masry Al Youm reported that those countries asked leaders of the Islamist parties to support Elaraby and have suspended their financial aid to Egypt until he is elected president. A senior Salafi official said that the Al-Nour party will join the campaign if they find Elaraby and his platform compelling enough.
"But if we learn he will be president only formally with no platform then we shall adopt a different stance." It was also reported that the Muslim Brotherhood's Shura Council is scheduled to decide which presidential candidate to endorse in its next meeting but that currently Elaraby is the leading choice.