LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 27/2012
Bible Quotation for today/Come to Me and Rest
Matthew 11/28-30: Come to me, all of you who are tired from carrying heavy loads, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke and put it on you, and learn from me, because I am gentle and humble in spirit; and you will find rest. For the yoke I will give you is easy, and the load I will put on you is light.
Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
 How the Assads won the West over/By Michael Young/January 26/12 
 Iran: a series of blows/By Tariq Alhomayed/January 26/12
 Is anyone in the Syrian leadership brave enough to ask the question/By Ali Ibrahim/January 26/12 
 Egypt addresses itself/By Hussein Shobokshi/January 26/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 26/12 
Netanyahu: Iran sanctions won't necessarily halt its nuclear program
 Obama: U.S. is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
 Iran: EU oil sanctions will have 'serious consequences'
 Jerusalem concerned: Saudi Air Force to outnumber Israel's advanced US jet fleet
 Canada Further Expands Sanctions Against Syria
Syrian Red Crescent head shot dead as violence escalates
 Syria: Crisis heats up as Arab League threaten internationalization
 Red Crescent official shot dead in Syria - ICRC

 Divided sentiments on show as Egyptians mark anniversary of revolt
Geagea Hails Syrian Opposition Call for Better Ties, Says Lebanon Should Seek U.N. Intervention if Attacked
Lebanese, Israeli army officials meet with UNIFIL
Rai says Bkirki - Hezbollah dialogue tackles Lebanese state
Syrian National Council pledges to reconsider agreements with Lebanon
Jumblat from Moscow: Russia Must Understand Syrian People’s Demands
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai tackles dialogue between religions with Saudi envoy
March 14 commends Syrian National Council’ statement on Syrian-Lebanese ties
 March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh slams “policy of dissociation” on Syria
Newly-appointed UNIFIL commander arrives in Lebanon
Mikati rejects accusations of obstruction
Hezbollah: Iran general’s words twisted
 March 14 warns Iran on south Lebanon  
 Lebanese in Nigeria live under specter of civil war
Lebanese banks cope with falling rates

Geagea Hails Syrian Opposition Call for Better Ties, Says Lebanon Should Seek U.N. Intervention if Attacked
by Naharnet /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea hoped on Thursday that a statement issued by the Syrian National Council would put Lebanese-Syrian relations on the right path and called for U.N. Security Council action if Lebanon comes under attack by Syria. The Council, which is Syria’s leading opposition movement, said Wednesday that it wants to start a new chapter in the complex and often-troubled relationship with Lebanon. In remarks to reporters, Geagea said it remains to be seen if the Council’s request would be met, stressing that it is a good way to repair ties.
The LF leader also lamented that the Syrian navy attack on three Lebanese fishermen off the coast of the northern town of Arida earlier this month was a “political message to those concerned.”
Unfortunately the message was sent after shedding the blood of Lebanese, he said. Sixteen-year-old Maher Hamad was killed after the Syrian navy opened fire on his boat off Arida. His uncles Fadi and Khaled Hamad, who were with him, were seized and handed over to the Lebanese army the next day. The government should ask for an apology from the Syrian authorities over the Arida incident, Geagea said. He also stressed that the Lebanese government should stop any attack on Lebanon or resort to the U.N. Security Council if Syria infringes on its sovereignty again.
Or else the government would be complicit with Syria against its own people, he warned. About a decision by Lebanon to steer itself clear of the Assad regime’s deadly crackdown on Syrian protestors, Geagea said President Michel Suleiman and Premier Najib Miqati should “give clear indications to Foreign Minister (Adnan Mansour) on a true policy of keeping a distance (from the Syrian) crisis and not just in words.”The LF leader called for a fair implementation of the law, rejecting the “persecution” of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
“Lebanon is in its nature the land of freedom and we won’t allow any authority to tarnish its image,” he warned. “We support the implementation of the law equally and (reject) to politically target” the refugees. On the scandal of the red diesel that shook Lebanon last week, Geagea urged state-run inspection boards and all judicial agencies to follow up the case until the truth is revealed.
“We can’t continue to live in an atmosphere of scandals,” he said. An investigation into the case was launched on Tuesday after reports said that the oil refinery in the North distributed to oil companies 8 million liters of red diesel at a subsidized price hours before the end of the government deadline for a one-month LL3,000 subsidy. The red diesel was later reportedly sold at higher prices giving millions of dollars of benefits to the companies. Another crisis that has rocked Lebanon is severe electricity cuts throughout the country. “It is strange that the party calling for demonstrations is the same party that is at the helm of the energy ministry,” Geagea quipped about calls by Energy Minister Jebran Bassil, who is a Free Patriotic Movement official, to the people to demonstrate against electricity rationing.
Bassil is accusing several parties of hindering the implementation of his $1.2 billion electricity project that was adopted by the cabinet last September. “Why wouldn’t the energy minister cut electricity from those not paying bills” as a solution to the power crisis? Geagea wondered.

Jumblat from Moscow: Russia Must Understand Syrian People’s Demands
by Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat stressed on Thursday the importance of reaching a political solution to the Syrian crisis, adding that the Arab League deal is the only solution available, reported the Russian news agency Novosti. He said after holding talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: “Russia must understand the demands of the Syrian people.”He warned that any alternative to the Arab deal will lead to further escalation and possibly foreign intervention. Foreign intervention is rejected by all concerned sides, said the MP, who traveled to Russia on Wednesday. Jumblat added that Russia has cooperated with Syria in several fields, noting however that “Russia, as a friendly state, must understand the rightful demands of the people.” “I hope that Russia will side with the voice of the rightful people,” said the Druze leader. Earlier this week, the MP called on Russia to “launch a political initiative together with the countries concerned in order to pull Syria out of its crisis.” Russia has blocked western attempts to have the United Nations Security Council formally condemn Syrian President Bashar Assad’s crackdown against anti-regime protests and impose stiff sanctions if he refuses to enter direct talks. The U.N. estimates that more than 5,400 people have been killed in the demonstrations that began in March 2011.

Lebanese, Israeli army officials meet with UNIFIL
January 26, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Senior Lebanese and Israeli military officials met Thursday under the supervision of UNIFIL to discuss blue line violations and Israel's withdrawal from the northern part of Ghajar. The tripartite meeting takes place regularly in the Naqoura headquarters of U.N. Interim Forces in Lebanon.
Lebanon and Israel are technically in a state of war. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 brought a halt to hostilities between Lebanon and Israel in the summer of 2006, following a month-long war between the two sides. However, Israel continues to occupy northern Ghajar.

Rai says Bkirki - Hezbollah dialogue tackles Lebanese state
January 26, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai said Thursday the dialogue between Bkirki and Hezbollah focuses on the structure of the state and maintaining Lebanon's neutrality in the Middle East.
“Bkirki, which represents the Church, says the truth objectively. We are discussing three points: the entity of Lebanon as a state, the National Covenant, and keeping Lebanon neutral,” Rai told reporters at Bkirki after he met with a delegation of local media editors. Rai added that the dialogue between the two parties, which was launched earlier this month, is not an alternative to the moribund national dialogue between rival politicians, which Rai and several lawmakers wish to resuscitate in order to bridge the gap between the countries' main political factions. The patriarch has repeatedly urged the international community to convince Israel to fulfill its obligations under U.N. resolutions, particularly those relating to the conflict between the Jewish State and Lebanon. He has said that the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanese territories would deny Hezbollah the pretext to maintain its weapons. Israel continues to occupy the Shebaa Farms, an area claimed by Lebanon. Hezbollah has said that its arms are the only means of defending Lebanon against Israeli aggression. It has also praised the tripartite formula of the “people, army, and resistance” as the only viable defense strategy. On Thursday, Rai said that the dialogue between Hezbollah and the Maronite patriarchate also tackled Lebanon’s message of coexistence to the Arab world, adding that he looked forward to the country becoming a strong state. “We should confront everything that obstructs the establishment of this state, and we should all raise ourselves to the level of the state and not the contrary,” Rai said.  Since becoming patriarch last year, Rai has reached out to Hezbollah, charting a course different from that of his predecessor, former Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, who repeatedly criticized Hezbollah's arms and voiced support for the March 14 coalition. “I did not say that I fear for the future of Christians in the east but for the future of Christians and Muslims and the east as a whole, because emigration affects all religious communities and is common to both Christians and Muslims,” the patriarch said, clarifying an earlier statement in which he warned that the presence of Christians in the region was threatened.

Syrian National Council promises better relations with Lebanon
January 26, 2012/The Daily Star
Leader of the exiled Syrian opposition grouping, the Syrian National Council, Burhan Ghaliou (R), attends a press conference in Moscow, on November 15, 2011. Members of the largest and most representative Syrian opposition grouping, the Syrian National Council, travelled to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
BEIRUT: The opposition Syrian Council announced Thursday that, should it come to power in Syria, it will seek to re-evaluate agreements between Syria and Lebanon and clearly demarcate the border between the two countries as a first step toward achieving better bilateral relations. “The Syrian National Council seeks a bright future with Lebanon … we will review agreements signed between the two countries and reach new agreements based on the independent and common interests of both nations,” the council said in an open letter to the Lebanese posted on its official website. The council also said that the relationship between the two nations should be governed by the framework of diplomatic representation via the two countries' embassies.
The statement said the council will abolish the Syrian-Lebanese Supreme Court, demarcate the Syrian border, particularly in the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, and adjust the common border between Syria and Lebanon. Lebanon, backed by Syria, maintains that the Shebaa Farms, a small plot of land where Israel, Syria and Lebanon intersect , is Lebanese territory and therefore a point of dispute with Israel. Syria, however, has not officially proclaimed the Shebaa Farms to be Lebanese.
Lebanese politicians have called on successive governments to demarcate the border between Lebanon and Syria, as a number of villages in north Lebanon fall in unmarked areas.
Since the uprising in neighboring Syria began in mid-March, the lack of proper demarcation has made it difficult to determine whether Syrian military actions along the porous border constitute incursions into Lebanon. The SNC also vowed to end what it described as the role of Syrian intelligence and security in Lebanon, which interfere in the country’s internal affairs. The Lebanese Civil War of 1975-1990 ended with Syrian tutelage over Lebanon until Syria withdrew its army in 2005 following mass protests demanding an end to Syria’s presence in the country. The Council also said that a commission of inquiry should be established to look into the cases of detained Lebanese and missing persons in Syrian prisons. Lebanese NGOs say they have the names of 545 people who went missing and are now believed to be in Syrian prisons, all of them victims of enforced disappearance during the 1975-1990 Civil War. “These principles stem from the acknowledgement that Syria's interests are in seeing a relationship with Lebanon that is based on brotherhood, mutual respect, joint work, and mutual interests,” the SNC said.  The SNC also thanked the Lebanese people for their solidarity with the protestors, as well as their political, humanitarian, and moral support for the Syrian revolution. Members of Lebanon’s March 14 coalition, led by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, have voiced their support for the anti-government
uprising, criticizing President Bashar Assad’s brutal crackdown against protesters. Assad attributes the escalating violence and number of deaths to armed groups he alleges have infiltrated Syria.

Newly-appointed UNIFIL commander arrives in Lebanon
January 25, 2012 /Major General Paolo Serra of Italy, the new Head of Mission and Force Commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), arrived in Beirut on Wednesday, the National News Agency reported. Serra was appointed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as the successor of Major General Alberto Asarta Cuevas of Spain, who will relinquish his post on January 28. Serra was born in 1956 in Italy and attended University of Turin’s Military Academy and received a master’s degree from the United States Army War College. -NOW Lebanon

Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai tackles dialogue between religions with Saudi envoy
January 25, 2012 /Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai met on Wednesday with Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Awad Assiri, who said following the sit-down that they discussed the need to strengthen dialogue between religions. “I have fulfilled the patriarch’s invitation to lunch…which was an opportunity to renew Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz’s concern to maintain communications between religions,” Assiri said following the meeting. The envoy added that he “sensed the patriarch’s keenness to enhance dialogue, especially between the Christians and the Muslims.”
“This was the purpose of the visit,” the National News Agency quoted Assiri as saying.-NOW Lebanon

March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh slams “policy of dissociation” on Syria
January 25, 2012 /March 14 MP Marwan Hamadeh criticized Speaker Nabih Berri’s support for Lebanon’s “policy of dissociation” on Syria, saying such a position would have been right if there was no “bloodshed” in Syria. “Such a policy would be [appropriate] if Syria had not reached [the point of violating] Lebanese [sovereignty] and targeting civilians,” Hamadeh told the Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio station. Also, the MP said that he concurred with Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt, who said that Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Adnan Mansour should have “remained silent” over the situation in Syria. “Who assigned Mansour to take the position he took in the Arab League [on Sunday]? Did this position express President [Michel Sleiman’s] and Prime Minister [Najib Mikati’s] positions?” Hamadeh asked. On Sunday, Mansour requested the Arab League put an end to Syria’s suspension from the Arab League and the economic sanctions imposed upon it.
Lebanon’s political scene is split between supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, led by Hezbollah, and the pro-Western March 14 camp. Syria has witnessed anti-regime protests since mid-March. The United Nations estimates that more than 5,400 people have lost their lives in the regime’s crackdown on dissent. -NOW Lebanon

March 14 commends Syrian National Council’ statement on Syrian-Lebanese ties
January 25, 2012 /March 14 General Secretariat commended on Wednesday the statement issued earlier by the Syrian National Council’s office. “The General Secretariat considers the SNC statement as a sign of hope and a courageous step that opens a new page in the Lebanese-Syrian ties based on the sovereignty and independence of both countries,” the statement issued by March 14 General Secretariat said. The statement also said that “March 14 looks forward to further communication with the SNC.”The SNC issued a statement saying that it wants to “reconsider the agreements signed between Lebanon and Syria and ink new ones which would take into account the interests of both countries, as well as common benefits.” Lebanon’s political scene is split between supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, led by Hezbollah, and the pro-Western March 14 camp.Assad’s troops have cracked down on protests against almost five decades of Baath rule which broke out mid-March, killing over 5,400 people and triggering a torrent of international condemnation.-NOW Lebanon

Mikati rejects accusations of obstruction
January 25, 2012 /Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday stressed “the importance of solidarity among the members of the cabinet,” and said that “the ministers must [work] as a team.”
“How is it possible to say that the cabinet is hindering projects? A project would only be delayed for further research and discussions, not on account of a hidden agenda to hinder or stall projects,” Information Minister Walid al-Daouq quoted Mikati as saying during the cabinet meeting. Energy Minister Gebran Bassil Bassil recently said in response to continued issues in the electricity sector and protests against him that his work is being hindered by the government and that the situation of the sector will worsen. Daouq also said that the cabinet approved several energy, commerce, agricultural, tourism, health and infrastructure projects.He also said that on Tuesday the cabinet will discuss the electricity project and the 2012 state budget. Last year, the cabinet approved Bassil’s electricity plan to allocate $1.2 billion to the Energy Ministry, on condition that the funds be transferred in installments and that the government supervises the project to increase electricity output by 700 Megawatts.
-NOW Lebanon

Netanyahu: Iran sanctions won't necessarily halt its nuclear program
By Jonathan Lis/Haaretz
PM urges international community to continue imposing sanctions on Tehran, but says he is unsure whether the move will foil Iran's attempts to develop its nuclear program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel is working to increase international pressure on Iran, but said that thus far, sanctions were unsuccessful in halting Tehran's nuclear program. "We are working to increase the international pressure on Iran," Netanyahu said while speaking before the Knesset. "Even though Iran has not halted its nuclear program, and we do not know whether the sanctions will be effective, this is definitely the right step." Netanyahu said that he has spoken to French President Nicolas Sarkozy after the European Union decided to impose a wide-reaching oil embargo on Iran, and praised him for his leadership on the difficult decision. He said he also spoke to British Prime Minister David Cameron and thanked him for his part as well. "I thank them for undertaking this international effort," he said. "I praised China for decreasing its oil imports from Iran," he said. "I also spoke to the Indian Foreign Minister on the same issue. I hope other countries such as South Korea and Japan will follow this lead." Netanyahu said that he does not know whether sanctions can determine the fate of Iran's nuclear program, but said they can definitely make a difference. On Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama said in his State of the Union address that the U.S. is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. Iran, responding to the recent oil embargo imposed on it by the EU, warned it would have 'serious consequences.' "Iran condemns this EU move as illogical and unjustifiable and believes it will have serious consequences for Europeans," the Foreign Ministry said in its first official statement after Monday's sanctions. It did not clarify what the consequences would be.

Hezbollah: Iran general’s words twisted
January 26, 2012/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Hezbollah said Wednesday that “America’s group” in the region had launched a “fabricated, misleading” campaign against recent comments by a top Iranian general.“For the thousandth time, it is proof of the moral and political bankruptcy” of figures who criticized statements by General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Al-Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards.Suleimani was taken to task for saying that Iraq and south Lebanon were “subject to” the Iranian regime, but used an expression that indicated being inspired by the political thought and practice of the Islamic Republic.“Even though the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic and the Iranian ambassadors to Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan denied these statements ... the followers of Israeli-American black rooms in Lebanon and abroad continued to repeat the distorted remarks, to serve their rabid campaign,” a statement by the party said.Hezbollah was apparently referring to a statement by the March 14 coalition earlier in the day, which expressed surprise that the Lebanese government had remained silent in the wake of Suleimani’s remarks.Hezbollah’s statement also blamed Al-Arabiya TV for its role in broadcasting what it said were false reports on Suleimani’s statement.

Syrian National Council pledges to reconsider agreements with Lebanon
January 25, 2012 The Syrian National Council issued a statement saying that it wants to “reconsider the agreements signed between Lebanon and Syria and ink new ones which would take into account the interests of both countries, as well as common benefits,” Italian news agency AKI reported on Wednesday. The statement also said that the new agreements that SNC wants to sign with Lebanon “will focus on bilateral ties in the framework of correct diplomatic representation.” The SNC also pledged to “cancel the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council,” and called for “controlling and demarcating the Lebanese-Syrian border, especially the Shebaa farms [region].” It also pledged to “end the Syrian intelligence’s [influence] in Lebanon, and stop Syrian intervention in Lebanese affairs.”The SNC also vowed to “put end to arms trafficking from Syria to Lebanon.” The council also said it will “form a Syrian-Lebanese committee to tackle the issue of Lebanese detainees in Syrian jails.”The statement added said that “free, independent and democratic Syria acknowledges Lebanon as a sovereign and independent country.”-NOW Lebanon

Syrian Red Crescent head shot dead as violence escalates
January 26, 2012/Agencies /Daily Star
BEIRUT: The head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent branch in the northern town of Idlib was shot dead Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross said, while activists reported deadly clashes elsewhere between government forces and army defectors. Abdul-Razak Jbero had been on his way by from Damascus to Idlib when he was shot, said Hicham Hassan, an ICRC spokesman in Geneva. An ICRC statement said he was riding in a “vehicle clearly marked with a Red Crescent emblem” and expressed shock at the killing.
Syria’s state-run media blamed “terrorists” for the attack.President Bashar Assad’s regime claims it is terrorists acting out a foreign conspiracy, rather than protesters seeking change in one of the region’s most autocratic states, that are behind the country’s 10-month-old uprising. The Syrian revolt, which began 10 months ago with largely peaceful protests, has grown increasingly militarized in recent months as frustrated regime opponents and army defectors fight back against government forces. Government forces clashed Wednesday with army defectors and stormed rebellious districts in central Syria, firing mortars and deploying snipers in violence that killed at least seven people, including a mother and her 5-year-old child, activists said.
Pressure on Syria to end 10 months of bloodshed has so far produced few results. Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia have pulled out of the Arab League’s observers mission, asking the U.N. Security Council to intervene. Decisive action from the U.N. appears unlikely, however, as Russia, a strong Syrian ally, has opposed moves like sanctions.
While Syria has approved the extension of the observers’ presence for another month, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem signaled Tuesday that the crackdown on protests would continue, insisting that Syria would solve its own problems.A Syrian military assault near Hama began Tuesday night, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an umbrella group of activists and opposition members. Shells slammed into several districts around Hama’s Bab Qebli area, the LCC said.
“It was impossible to rescue the wounded due to the ongoing arbitrary shelling,” the group said in a statement. Two people were killed by sniper fire, according to the LCC and another opposition group, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.In the town of Qusair near the central city of Homs, a woman and her 5-year-old child were killed when a shell struck their home during clashes between government troops and gunmen believed to be army defectors, both groups said.SANA said an “armed terrorist group” was also responsible for the death in Hama of priest Bassilius Nassar but the LCC said he was “martyred” during an army assault on the city’s Al-Jarajmah neighborhood.
Three other people were killed during raids in a Damascus suburbs. The Arab strategy to solve the crisis appears to be collapsing. After announcing their pullout from the observers mission, Gulf Arab countries urged the Security Council to take all “necessary measures” to force the country to implement a League peace plan announced Sunday to create a national unity government in two months.
Damascus has rejected the plan as a violation of national sovereignty.The U.S., the European Union, the Arab League and Turkey all have introduced sanctions against Damascus in response to Assad’s crackdown, but Russia threatens to veto such measures.Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Wednesday said his country, which holds a veto in the Security Council, was open to “constructive proposals” but reiterated his opposition to sanctions and military intervention. “We are open to constructive proposals that go in line with the set task of ending violence,” he said. Council diplomats said Wednesday the U.N. Security Council could vote as early as next week on a new Western-Arab draft resolution endorsing the Arab League’s call for Syrian President Bashar Assad to transfer power to his deputy. It remains unclear whether Russia would wield its veto powers again. France and Britain Wednesday joined efforts at the United Nations.
“The Security Council must support the Arab League’s courageous decisions which are trying to end the repression and violence in Syria and find a solution to the political crisis,” French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said. “Our aim is to get a resolution approved.”Syria informed the Arab League Wednesday that it had agreed to extend the observer mission one month, until Feb. 24, said Adnan al-Khudeir, head of the Cairo operations room that handles reports by the monitors. He also said the League had put together a new group of observers to replace the 55 GCC monitors who were leaving Wednesday. They consist of 15 Mauritanians, 10 Palestinians and six Egyptians, and they will head to Syria within a week, he added.
Defectors clashed with government soldiers Wednesday in northern Syria’s Idlib province, activists said.A Jordanian man of Palestinian origin accused pro-regime forces of kidnapping and killing his 27-year old son in Hama.Hafez Abu Osbeh said his son, Ahmad, 27, had been kidnapped last Friday, and his body had been left outside his mother’s residence three days later with gunshot wounds to his head.

How the Assads won the West over
January 26, 2012/By Michael Young /The Daily Star
As the regime of President Bashar Assad pursues its campaign of repression against its own population, how do those Western officials who once saw Syria as a serious partner in the Middle East feel?
The Assads, father and son, benefited from a profound misunderstanding of the nature of their leadership. None of Damascus’ many interlocutors ever doubted that they were dealing with a fetid dictatorship, but they pursued their flirtations anyway. Somehow, they repeatedly persuaded themselves that Syria was a key to unlocking closed regional doors. That the doors usually stayed closed failed to discourage further advances.
Bashar Assad cheerfully exploited this obstinacy, as he did the supremely idiotic insight that someone who doesn’t look, dress and talk like a thug cannot possibly be a thug. Whatever his deeper proclivities, Bashar has internalized a system that is, essentially, a vast criminal enterprise, one that has entirely absorbed him.
What are some of the misperceptions that have sustained Syria’s autocrats for so long? The most resilient was that Syria under the Assads was reformable. The masks are down, so that when the Syrian president brings up his purported reform program these days, he is greeted with contempt. But for more than a decade the unqualified worthlessness of this proposition was plain to those bothering to look.
There is no great mystery in the way Syria is run. True reform in the country would mean undermining the delicately balanced structure that Hafez Assad set up to protect his rule, and that of his family. Like any good architectural work, Hafez built institutions of governance and subjugation propped up by neutralizing contrary forces. Security bodies and military units proliferated, but also cancelled each other out; governments were eternal, but were counter-balanced by the Baath Party, while both were dominated by the security services, themselves arbitrated by the president. The political arrangement rested on Alawite solidarity and advancement, but Sunnis were integrated into it, even as they were denied substantial authority. The regime was allegedly secular, but as of the mid-1980s it expanded the numbers of schools and mosques to earn religious legitimacy (no doubt facilitating infiltration of Islamist groups as well). And so on.
Even Hafez Assad himself occasionally had trouble maneuvering such a bulky machine. Bashar, less skillful an operator, could only play at the margins. He opened Syria up to foreign banks and investment. But this primarily benefited the ruling clique, above all the president’s cousin Rami Makhlouf, who expanded his stake in the Syrian economy, becoming a conduit for major transactions. You could now sit at trendy new sidewalk cafes in Damascus, Assad’s promoters crowed. But most Syrians couldn’t afford a latte, and this veneer of modernism was somehow confused with political openness.
The inability to reform impacted on many fronts. Much has been made of Hafez Assad’s willingness to sign a peace treaty with Israel during the 1990s. Yes, the Syrians appeared genuinely willing to go quite far, while the Israelis backtracked at the Shepherdstown talks in December 1999, refusing to return the entire area of the Golan Heights to Syria’s sovereignty. However, it was never clear how the Syrian order would have adjusted to a settlement. This would have imposed a substantial overhaul and demobilization of the military and security edifice, shaking the very foundations of Assad rule. It seems apparent that Bashar Assad, despite welcoming a process of negotiations with Israel, knew that he did not have the latitude that his father enjoyed to manage the aftermath of a successful outcome.
If Bashar couldn’t reform domestically and had limited room to conclude a peace settlement with Israel, Syria during most of the past 10 years nevertheless took on the role of an ardent spoiler. In Iraq after 2003, on the Palestinian-Israeli track after the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004, and in Lebanon after the Syrian pullout of 2005, Damascus was a compulsive fire-starter. But here, too, the behavior of the Assads generated a new misunderstanding: If Syria could start fires, then presumably it could also help extinguish them.
Except for one thing. Under Bashar Assad, Syria was a second-rate Arab power. There was no “peace process” to lend it regional relevance; Assad soon lost Lebanon; and the Bush administration’s objectives in Iraq ran against those of Syria, so engagement became futile. Damascus could siphon jihadists into Iraq; it could, with Iran, turn Hamas against Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestine Liberation Organization; and it could cooperate with Hezbollah to reverse the shaky independence that Lebanon gained in 2005.
But what Assad could not do was surrender any of the cards he had accumulated. By doing so, Syria would have lost its leverage, with little to compensate for this. The Americans and Europeans did begin returning to Damascus to ask Assad to facilitate solutions all around him. The French mainly pleaded on behalf of Lebanon; the Americans requested help to break the Palestinian deadlock. President Barack Obama followed with a promise of “engagement.”
And Assad budged on not a single request of the foreign envoys. He deduced, quite reasonably, that if he did so, no one would knock at his door any more. Even Arab foes were coming around. Saudi Arabia reconciled with Assad, despite his alliance with Iran, and compelled its recalcitrant Lebanese allies to do the same. But at some stage, all shell games backfire. By never delivering, Assad was seen increasingly as a time-waster, and a liar to boot.
Today, everyone from French President Nicholas Sarkozy to Qatar’s Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, friends of Bashar past, as well as Barack Obama, realize whom they were pampering. They have recoiled in disgust. But for too long they eagerly bought into Bashar Assad’s scam, and people are still dying because of their error.
*Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster). He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Syria: Crisis heats up as Arab League threaten internationalization
By Sawsan Abo Hussein and Caroline Akoum
Cairo/Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – The Arab League and Qatar have formally requested a meeting with United Nations [UN] Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to ask for the Security Council’s “support” in dealing with the Syrian crisis. Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby and Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who heads the Arab League’s committee on Syria, wrote jointly to the UN chief setting out the plan for a political solution in Syria. The letter asks for a “joint meeting between them in the UN headquarters to inform the Security Council about developments and obtain the support of the Council for this plan”, according to the Arab League statement.
Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby met with the ambassadors of the five UN Security Council members in Cairo yesterday to inform them of the Arab League’s new initiative on Syria. The Arab League has called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to transfer power to his deputy, and then for a national unity government – including members of the opposition – to be formed within two months. Damascus swiftly rejected this proposal with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem telling a press conference that “definitely the solution is Syria is not the solution suggested by the Arab League, which we have rejected. They have abandoned their role as the Arab League and we no longer want Arab solutions to the crisis.” As for the issue of the Arab League heading to the UN in New York to seek support in dealing with the crisis that is taking place in Syria, Muallem said “they can head to New York or to the moon. So long as we are not paying for their tickets, it is none of our concern.” He stressed “the solution is a Syrian one based on the interests of the Syrian people…based on the completion of the reform program proposed by President Bashar al-Assad.”
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Syrian National Council [SNC] Executive Board member, Haitham al-Maleh described the Syrian foreign ministers comments as being “ridiculous” adding “Walid Muallem reminds me of the [former] Iraqi Information Minister Muhammad Saeed al-Sahaf who continued to issue defiant and overblown statements until the last minute, despite the entry of US troops to Iraq. Now we see Walid Muallem, the Syrian spokesman, believing that he alone is right and the entire rest of the world is wrong. He accuses Arab States of treason, plays down the impact of the economic sanctions and the demands of the people for the fall of the regime”
Responding to the Arab League’s calls for dialogue, al-Maleh said that no honorable opposition figure would enter into talks with a criminal regime whose tanks and soldiers remain on the street. He added that he expected the al-Assad regime to collapse within one month, and that “we have confirmed information that a large number of Syrian army officers are on the verge of defecting from the regime.”
Whilst Free Syrian Army [FSA] spokesman Major Maher al-Naimi told Asharq Al-Awsat that “this statement [from Muallem] is a clear indication from the al-Assad regime regarding the escalation of its armed forces with regards to the suppression of the demonstrators and killing without reason. The best evidence of this is the attack that took place in Hama and Homs yesterday following Muallem’s statements.” He stressed “the FSA will remain on the defensive, and will protect the peaceful nature of the revolution, in order to show the world what crimes the al-Assad and his criminal gang is committing against the Syrian people.”
This comes at the same time that Syria has granted a month-long extension of the Arab League’s observer mission in the country. The mission, now extended until 23 February, is to verify Syria’s compliance with an earlier Arab League peace proposal.
Earlier on Tuesday, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] had taken the decision to pull out their monitors from the Arab League observer mission in line with the earlier decision taken by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia pulled out of the mission on Sunday following a statement by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal who announced “my country will withdraw its monitors because the Syrian government did not execute any of the elements of the Arab resolution plan.” He added “we are calling on the international community to bear its responsibility, and that includes our brothers in Islamic states and our friends in Russia, China, Europe and the United States.”
Speaking during a joint press conference with Arab League deputy chief Ahmed Bin Helli, Qatari envoy Saleh Abdullah al-Buainain said “we had hoped that all Arab states would participate in the work of the [observer] mission…but the Gulf States decided to withdraw its members from the observer delegation” however he confirmed that the GCC states would continue financially supporting the mission. He added “problems change daily, and the decisions also change in this regard.”
The Arab League held an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the Arab observer mission in Syria, and the withdrawal of Saudi Arabia and the GCC states from the observer mission. Iraqi envoy to the Arab League, Qais al-Azzawi, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Arab League meeting was to “inform us of the withdrawal of the GCC observers from the observer mission…as well as to confirm the Gulf States commitment to all the decisions of the Arab League and everything that was put forward in the last Arab League ministerial meeting.”
Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby also sent a message to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem informing him of the report of the Arab League observer mission, as well as his own political view of the situation in Syria. Elaraby called on Damascus to respond positively to the Arab League initiative and reach a national consensus to resolve the crisis taking place in the country, in order to ensure that Syria avoids any foreign intervention.
The Arab League also informed the Syrian opposition of the latest developments in its dealings with the crisis, and called on the Syrian opposition to prepare for a serious political dialogue with the government – under the auspices of the Arab League – to resolve the Syrian crisis.
However SNC-member Loai Safi told Asharq Al-Awsat that “nobody in the [Syrian] opposition believes that the Syrian regime has any genuine desire for dialogue, and everything that has been said over the past ten months of the revolution [by the government] has been part of a game to buy more time.”
He added “our only condition for accepting dialogue is for al-Assad to step down and hand over power to a transitional government, and for a transition to a democratic system.” As for Walid Muallem’s statement, Safi described this as being “far from reality” and “the best evidence that the Syrian regime is in trouble” adding “the political and economic situation being experienced by the regime means that it has gone from bad to worse.”

Canada Further Expands Sanctions Against Syria
January 25, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today announced new sanctions against Syria’s Assad regime in concert with like-minded countries:
“We want to make sure we are doing everything we can to isolate this reprehensible regime.
“Assad and those supporting him must get the message that peace-loving nations of the world are working together to end the regime’s oppressive rule.
“These latest measures include an assets freeze on, and a prohibition on dealings with, 29 additional individuals and entities associated with the Assad regime.
“We are also providing for new exemptions to minimize the impact on ordinary citizens.
“We welcome the Arab League observers’ report and the League’s proposal to have Assad move aside, paving the way for free elections; the League’s actions are all the more important given the inability, to this point, of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to address the crisis in Syria.
“We strongly support Arab League efforts to achieve a peaceful transition of power, and we urge the UNSC to back this effort.
“We remain committed to working with our international partners to bring pressure to bear on the Assad regime.
“Sanctions imposed by like-minded partners, including the United States, the European Union and the Arab League, are having an impact by isolating the regime.
“Canada stands with the Syrian people in their efforts to secure for themselves a brighter future. We look forward to a new Syria that respects the rights of its people and lives in peace with its neighbours.”
From December 15, 2011, to January 14, 2012, Canada implemented a voluntary evacuation of its citizens in Syria and expedited efforts to help them leave the country as soon as possible. Canada continues to urge all Canadians in Syria to leave immediately, while commercial means are still available.
For more information, please visit Regulations Amending the Special Economic Measures (Syria) Regulations.
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A backgrounder follows.
For further information, media representatives may contact:
Foreign Affairs Media Relations Office
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
613-995-1874
Follow us on Twitter: @DFAIT_MAECI
Backgrounder - Additional Sanctions on Syria
Effective immediately, the additional individuals and entities announced today, and named below, will be subject to an assets freeze and a prohibition on economic dealings. With these new measures, the total number of designated persons rises to 108 individuals and 38 entities.
Additional individuals
Jawdat Ibrahim Safi (Brigadier)
Muhammad Ali Durgham (Major-General)
Ramadan Mahmoud Ramadan (Major-General)
Ahmed Yousef Jarad (Brigadier)
Naim Jasem Suleiman (Major-General)
Jihad Mohamed Sultan (Brigadier)
Fo’ad Hamoudeh (Major-General)
Bader Aqel (Major-General)
Ghassan Afif (Brigadier)
Mohamed Maaruf (Brigadier)
Yousef Ismail (Brigadier)
Jamal Yunes (Brigadier)
Mohsin Makhlouf (Brigadier)
Ali Dawwa (Brigadier)
Mohamed Khaddor (Brigadier)
Suheil Salman Hassan (Major-General)
Wafiq Nasser
Ahmed Dibe
Makhmoud al-Khattib
Mohamed Heikmat Ibrahim
Nasser Al-Ali
Mehran Khwanda
Additional entities
Dier ez-Zor Petroleum Company
Ebla Petroleum Company
Dijla Petroleum Company
Industrial Bank
Popular Credit Bank
Saving Bank
Agricultural Cooperative Bank
For more information on Canada’s sanctions against Syria, please see Syria.
Context
On May 24, 2011, Canada announced targeted sanctions against the Syrian regime and some designated individuals and entities in response to the ongoing violent crackdown by Syrian military and security forces against Syrians peacefully protesting for democracy and human rights. These measures, which remain in place, were a blend of administrative measures and actions taken under the authority of the Special Economic Measures Act and were consistent with initiatives taken by like-minded partners, including the United States and the European Union.
On August 13, 2011, Canada expanded sanctions by seeking to freeze the assets of four additional individuals and two additional entities associated with the Syrian regime and to ensure that those people believed to be inadmissible to Canada would be prevented from travelling to Canada. Measures implemented by Canada included a prohibition on dealing in the property of listed individuals and entities—including the provision of financial services and making property available for their benefit—and travel restrictions.
Canadian measures
Travel restrictions: Canada ensured that persons associated with the Syrian government who are believed to be inadmissible to Canada are prevented from travelling to Canada.
An asset freeze: Canada imposed an asset freeze against people associated with the current Syrian regime and entities involved in security and military operations against the Syrian people.
A ban on specific exports and imports: Canada placed a ban under the Export and Import Permits Act on the export from Canada to Syria of goods and technology that are subject to export controls. These items include arms, munitions, and military, nuclear and strategic items that are intended for use by the Syrian armed forces, police or other governmental agencies.
A suspension of all bilateral cooperation agreements and initiatives with Syria.
The measures announced are consistent with Canada’s foreign policy priority to promote freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law around the world. Canada stands with the Syrian people in their calls for a brighter future for Syria.
A news release announcing the May 24 sanctions can be found at PM announces sanctions on Syria.
For more information on the August 13 announcement, please visit Statement by Minister Baird on Situation in Syria.
On October 4, 2011, Canada imposed the following additional measures:
A prohibition on the importation, purchase or transportation of petroleum or petroleum products from Syria.
A prohibition on new investment in the Syrian oil sector.
A prohibition on the provision or acquisition of financial services for the purpose of facilitating the importation, purchase or transportation of Syrian petroleum or petroleum products.
A prohibition on the provision or acquisition of financial services for the purpose of investing in the Syrian oil sector.
For information on the October 4 announcement, please visit Canada Expands Sanctions Against Syria.
On December 23, 2011, Canada further expanded its sanctions against the Syrian regime. Those measures prohibit all imports, with the exception of food, from Syria; all new investment in Syria; and the export to Syria of equipment, including software, for the monitoring of telephone and Internet communications. Canada also imposed an assets freeze and prohibited economic dealings with additional individuals and entities associated with the Assad regime.
For information on the December 23 announcement, please visit Canada Further Expands Sanctions Against Syria.

Islamists Arrest a Muslim Father After His Sons Convert to Christianity
Washington, D.C. (January 25, 2012) – International Christian Concern (ICC) has learned that on January 14 Somali Islamists arrested a Muslim father after two of his teenage children converted to Christianity in Kismayo, Somalia. The two sons of Mo’alim Mohamud Aw-Omar converted to Christianity late last year. They fled their homes following their conversion.
Members of the radical Islamic group, al-Shabaab, accused Aw-Omar of “failing to raise his sons as good Muslims” because “good Muslims cannot convert to Christianity.” Aw-Omar, who is still a Muslim, insisted that his sons have memorized the Qur’an, fasted and prayed regularly and therefore he should not be accused of failing his duties.
According to sources on the ground, the Islamists have refused to release Aw-Omar until his two sons return to Kismayo. This is unlikely to happen because the teenagers will be killed if they return. According to the strict interpretation of the Islamic sharia law that Al-Shabaab follows, leaving Islam is a crime punishable by death. The law is based on the Hadith “…The Prophet of Allah said, ‘If somebody [a Muslim] discards his religion, kill him” Bukhari (52:260). Radical Islamists have killed a number of Christian converts in Somalia. This is the first confirmed case of a parent being arrested for the conversion of children. In a statement to ICC, a Somali Christian leader said, “This tactic (of arresting parents for conversion of children) is apparently intended to discourage Muslims from converting to Christianity since their Muslim parents could be held accountable for their conversion. The Somali Islamists have previously tried other failed harsh tactics such as summary executions of converts to minimize the number of Muslims converting to Christianity. Please pray for the Somali Christians, especially those living in Islamist controlled areas in southern Somalia.”
ICC’s Regional Manager for Africa, Jonathan Racho, said, “The Somali people have suffered enough. Al-Shabaab shouldn’t be allowed to continue terrorizing Somalis. We urge Al-Shabaab to respect the religious freedom of all Somalis. We also urge Christians around the world to pray for their brothers and sisters in Somalia.”

Is anyone in the Syrian leadership brave enough to ask the question?
By Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat
According to a news piece carried by the official [Syrian] news agency, an official source reported that the Syrian regime has rejected the new Arab initiative, which had drawn up a roadmap similar to what happened in Yemen to ensure a semi-peaceful transfer of power there. This, however, has caused several questions to be raised, most prominently: What will happen next? Will the next step be an international solution? Indeed, the Syrian regime’s rejection itself raises questions, firstly: Is this the regime's final stance? Or will the door be left ajar for negotiations? Based on our experience of Arab initiatives towards Syria so far, the regime in Damascus has been known to adopt contradictory stances. The latest of these initiatives was the Arab observer mission - considered at first [by the Syrian regime] to be a violation of Syrian sovereignty - yet following weeks of inquiries, exchanged messages and replies between Damascus and the Arab League, and following several amendments to the Arab protocol, observers were finally sent to Damascus, and now they themselves are the subject of endless controversy.
It would not be surprising if future events follow a path similar to the Arab initiative that was proposed after the recent Arab ministerial meeting, with the Syrian regime attempting to negotiate, make inquiries and then carry out amendments, as was the case with the observer mission, in a bid to buy time.
Let us be frank here, the decision to accept the Arab observers in Syria was nothing more than al-Assad’s submission to the pressure being mounted upon him, and an attempt to buy more time, hoping that his security apparatus would succeed in quelling the revolution and the numerous hotbeds of unrest. This is clear considering the increasing rate of killings and attacks on cities, which continued to escalate until the death toll in the presence of Arab observes rose to several hundred.
Therefore, we can observe that pressure is a catalyst for action, and the new Arab initiative - which raised the ceiling of Arab mobilization with regards to what is happening in Syria - has mounted further pressure on the al-Assad regime. However, the door has still been left ajar for a safe exit [for Bashar al-Assad] along the lines of what happened to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. This was represented by the advice offered by the Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki, during the interview he gave to Asharq al-Awsat, when he touched upon the subject of Syria and al-Assad by saying "we must not put four walls in front of a wounded tiger. There must be a way out for him". Of course, it is important that this message is taken on board, and that al-Assad understands what is meant by a way out.
We are now facing the final scene of the Syrian revolution, and this has become clear for everyone to see, whether inside Syria or outside, whether as part of the regime or the opposition, the regional parties; Arab and non-Arab, and the international powers. Al-Assad has been given several respites and plenty time, but nevertheless he has failed to present any real solutions. Furthermore, he has failed to destroy a revolution that has broken through the fear barrier, and has now begun to confront the regime’s weapons with arms of its own. Now the situation on the ground is changing but not to the advantage of the regime, which has begun to lose control of entire cities and districts. It is a fact that no one can know what is happening within the corridors of power, or inside Syria’s governing institutions, but it is also a fact that the Arab initiative has thrown a stone into the ruling regime’s water, and we do not know whether this is stagnant or not. Surely officials and key figures within the regime’s institutions will begin to wonder: Is keeping the President worth the destruction of the country and its institutions, the continual bloodshed, the killings, and the continual divisions within the army and the security apparatus? I hope they will come to the rational answer, provided these officials have a sense of responsibility and the courage to ask themselves such questions. Is there anyone within the Syrian leadership who can ask such questions? This will become apparent in the days to come.

Iran: a series of blows
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Our region has witnessed, and is witnessing, a series of events that show that Tehran is now receiving blow after blow, rather than receiving any kind of deal! Here we see Baghdad and Beirut moving to address the comments issued by the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, who said that Lebanon and Iraq are within the area of Iranian influence, thus forcing Tehran to issue and official denial of Suleimani’s remarks. In spite of the Iranian denials, on more than one level, Iraq issued a statement in angry protest, and Lebanon also rose up against Iran. These two stances, Iraqi and Lebanese, can be considered themselves to be a blow to Tehran.
As for internationally, Tehran has said publicly that the West must acknowledge it has a role to play in the region, especially after it helped America in Iraq and Afghanistan, as the Iranian President himself has already said against the backdrop of negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program. However, Tehran has found itself reeling from the West’s sanctions that have been imposed, and those that will be imposed, whether targeting the oil industry or the central bank. The sanctions have led to the Iranian currency being devalued by half. When Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened the Gulf States, the international response came quickly, with US President Barack Obama warning the Iranian Supreme Leader, and ignoring [Iranian President] Ahmadinejad, whilst American and European warships moved into the waters of the Arabian Gulf, in a clear display of strength. Despite all this, Tehran stood by idly and simply received another blow in the same week.
As for the Arab world, Saudi Arabia has taught Iran a lesson in politics, and how to operate professionally. The Arabs have agreed, unanimously, on an Arab initiative similar to that proposed for Yemen, primarily Saudi driven, which requires, at the end of the day, the departure from power of one of Tehran’s allies, Bashar al-Assad. The Arab initiative will be under the supervision of the Security Council, and it has received an Arab consensus, even from Iraq, an ally of Tehran, whilst Lebanon did not dare to object, but rather used “fluid” diplomacy and announced that it was distancing itself.
Here it is important to tell the interesting story of what took place at the Arab ministerial meeting in Cairo. During that meeting, the Lebanese Foreign Minister discussed every term of the new Arab initiative towards Syria, and when it came to the vote; the minister declared that he was distancing himself, at which point Prince Saud al-Faisal said to him: “Why waste our time by discussing each item when you are abstaining from voting?” Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim intervened by saying “he’s not abstaining your Highness, he’s distancing himself”, to which Prince Saud replied “as well?!”
The initiative itself is another blow to the Iranian regime, again in the same week. This is not to mention of course that Tehran has received another blow in Iraq, where its ally, Nuri al-Maliki, has become a lame duck, like the government of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Thus we are now hearing about a meeting between the Iranian Ambassador to Iraq and Iyad Allawi! This of course is in addition to the case of Iran in Bahrain. Thus, Iran’s foolishness has caused it to receive blow after blow, rather than receive any sort of deal. We must remember that God does not gloat!

Jerusalem concerned: Saudi Air Force to outnumber Israel's advanced US jet fleet
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 25, 2012/ With its latest acquisitions from Washington and Europe, the Saudi Air Force will have more fighter-bombers of more advanced models that the Israeli Air Force. Deep concern over this was recently relayed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.
debkafile's Washington and military sources that Israel made its concern known with the utmost discretion so as not to be seen as hampering the expansion of the Saudi Royal Air Force as Riyadh gets set to tackle Tehran should Saudi oil exports be sabotaged by Iranian attacks on its oil production or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its primary export outlet.
Last month, the US agreed to sell Saudi Arabia 84 advanced F-15SA fighter-bombers worth $29.4 billion. First deliveries are due in 2015. The package included the upgrading of 70 F-15 planes of the Saudi air fleet. Riyadhis also buying 72 advanced Eurofighter Typhoon fighter bombers. All in all, the oil kingdom will have the largest and most sophisticated fighter-bomber fleet in the Middle East.
Israel leaders reminded the Obama administration of its standing pledge to maintain Israel's qualitative military edge in the region. The aircraft supplied to the Saudis will place that edge in doubt.
They voiced two additional causes for concern:
1. One fine day, Saudi Arabia, which has never agreed to peace relations with Israel, may be moved to attack the Jewish state from an air base very close to Israel's shores. That proximity and the size and quality of its air force will allow dozens of warplanes to penetrate Israel's air defenses and drop bombs on southern and central Israel.
2. Israel also fears that four or five Saudi pilots or hired Islamist fliers may one day form an al Qaeda cell inside the Saudi Air Force and conspire to carry out a suicide attack on Israeli cities on the model of al Qaeda's 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington, most of whose participants were Saudis. Israeli intelligence officials in close touch with American counterparts asked them if Washington had asked for Saudi assurances about the reliability of the air crews who will man the new F-15SA planes. They were told that no such guarantees had been requested. For now, Israel has brought its concerns to the notice of the Obama administration without making specific requests to hold up delivery. Israel is conscious that the Gulf region is on tenterhooks over its security and the Saudis are deep in military preparations to beat back potentially aggressive Iranian moves in the wake of the oil embargo approved by the US and the European Union against Tehran's nuclear program. Jerusalem also takes into consideration the importance to the flagging American economy of the huge warplane transaction with the Saudis which will support 50,000 jobs in the US air industry and 600 American contractors of aircraft parts. Obama will certainly not be approachable on this issue while running for re-election. But none of these considerations allays the deep anxiety prevailing in the top echelons of Israel's high military and air command over the radical upgrade awarded Saudi air power providing it with the capacity to outclass and outgun Israel

Egypt addresses itself
By Hussein Shobokshi/Asharq Alawsat
The Egyptian people yesterday witnessed the birth of a new parliament; this is the first parliament that truly represents the people since the 1952 military coup which consecrated the rule of dictatorship in the country. In the past, parliamentary elections were a flagrant example of despotism and autocracy, for only those either endorsed by the ruler or relying upon vote-rigging and threats could reach parliament. However Egypt’s first freely elected MPs entered parliament amidst a climate of cautiousness, concern, and happiness [yesterday]; whilst Egypt entered a new and unprecedented era. This is an era of transparency that is closer to chaos, where the Egyptian public have desires and ambitions that may prove impossible to fulfil.
The people have big ambitions, but the challenges that the country is facing are even bigger. Numerous slogans were coined during the revolution, and these were accompanied by flags and banners, which the demonstrators raised and waved when chanting their slogans in Egypt’s squares and streets. However the problem is that these slogans were extremely idealistic, but did not include any details or mechanisms of implementation. There were slogans that championed religion and the role of religion in politics, whilst other slogans praised the principles of justice, freedom, human rights and dignity. However it will be very difficult – although gratifying – to go into the details regarding how to implement these slogans in a practical manner. Rule will be administered by the constitution, whose frame of reference must be Islamic Sharia law; however we must discuss the details of this extremely carefully before any [constitutional] articles are agreed upon. In other words, the relationship between citizens, parliament, and the executive authority must be clear, in order to ensure that human rights are protected and that checks and balances are in place. This will allow the Egyptian public to punish their elected officials if their objectives and desires are not met in an accurate and honest manner.
Certain political parties desire to prove their merit and display their seriousness in order to eliminate the bad reputation that they have accumulated over the years as a result of the rumours spread about them by the previous ruling regime. However this same desire could cause these political parties to slide into acts of petty revenge. Other parties might also seek to quickly implement their own goals and objectives to benefit from the new state of affairs in Egypt as quickly as possible. However there can be no doubt that it will be extremely difficult for any consensus to be reached in the Egyptian political arena, and this may even lead to sharp divisions and extremist discourse, particularly in light of the fragile and intensely divided political climate that has ruled the scene following the ouster of Mubarak and since the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces [SCAF] took control of the country.
The new parliament takes the reins of power during a time when the country is expecting a number of youth organizations to take to the streets on the first anniversary of the 25 January revolution. These organizations intend to express their concerns regarding the Egyptian revolution’s failure to achieve its objective (an opinion that is not necessary held by all those who participated in the revolution). These youths believe that they are the victim of a conspiracy brewed up between the religious parties that won the parliamentary elections and SCAF to drive the revolutionary youth – and their supporters – out of the entire political scene, portraying them as a group of troublemakers, thugs and outlaws who must be punished and deterred. Some of these youth even believe that this is meant to cast doubt on their patriotism and objectives.
In the midst of this polarization, we cannot overlook the ground-breaking and unprecedented role being played by Egypt’s premier Islamic institution, Al-Azhar University. Al-Azhar put forward a political agreement which is considered to be one of the most important – and progressive – political agreements or documents in modern Islamic history. This agreement is considered to be an innovative frame of reference which addresses the mechanism of governance, parliamentary operations, human rights and elections. This agreement also provides clear answers to difficult issues such as citizenship, woman, minorities’ rights, and freedom of worship, and more. Al-Azhar is therefore drawing a clear line to counteract the attempts being made by certain parties to transgress the limits and portray themselves – with their superficial and poor knowledge of religion – as the protectors and official spokesmen of Islam. This is because the Egyptian people have a religious nature, and could potentially be impressed and won over by political parties using religion in this way.
The Egyptian people elected a parliament that is completely different to the previous one, and they are hoping that this will represent a new beginning for the country. Yet, they will not be merciful if this new parliament fails to achieve the ambitions of the people who for decades suffered from despotism, corruption and insults. The Islamic world is carefully watching what is happening in Egypt in light of the weight, significance and the enormous influence of the Egyptian experience; therefore failure will be costly whilst success will be beneficial, not just for Egypt, but the Islamic world. There can be no doubt that Egypt has changed, but we must wait and see the extent and nature of this change.
Egypt is now experiencing a state of review and appraisal, and the parliament is the major place for this. We must wait to see the result.