LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 17/12

Bible Quotation for today/I have conquered the world
Saint John 16/29-33/: "His disciples said, ‘Yes, now you are speaking plainly, not in any figure of speech! Now we know that you know all things, and do not need to have anyone question you; by this we believe that you came from God.’ Jesus answered them, ‘Do you now believe? The hour is coming, indeed it has come, when you will be scattered, each one to his home, and you will leave me alone. Yet I am not alone because the Father is with me. I have said this to you, so that in me you may have peace. In the world you face persecution. But take courage; I have conquered the world!’"



Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
No escape from Taif /By: Michael Young/Now Lebanon/June 16/12   
Egypt: A setback or a correction/By Tariq Alhomayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat/ June 16/12
Will there be a "jihad" in Syria/By Mshari al-Zaydi/Asharq Alwsat/ June 16/12
Islamic Terror vs. Norway Massacre: Chicken or Egg?/By Raymond Ibrahim/Jihad Watch/June 16/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 16/12
US military intervention in Syria – “Not if but when”
U.S. says weighing 'next steps' with partners on Syria
Crown Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz Dies - Saudi Royal Court
UN observers in Syria suspend activities
Al-Mayadeen: The last attempt to revive pro-Assad media
Iran's Ahmadinejad to leave politics in 2013
Stark choice for Egypt in presidential poll
Report: Syria Allegedly Moving Scud Missiles to Hizbullah
Syrian opposition warns of looming Homs massacre

Syrian former opposition chief calls for UN peacekeepers
Critical juncture” in Syria as US seeks next steps
Iraq car bombs targeting Shiite pilgrims kill at least 27
Maronite Bishops Back Baabda Declaration as Means to Stability
Bkirki elects five new bishops for Lebanon, Cairo, Jerusalem
Lebanon mourns death of Saudi crown prince
Protesters block roads in Beirut, south Lebanon over electricity cuts
Nasrallah: Hezbollah can hit all essential targets in Israel
Lebanon mourns death of Saudi crown prince
Lebanon must end rifts to withstand Syria turmoil  
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 16, 2012
Aoun: Lebanon must implement Dialogue's terms
March 14 slams Cabinet’s overspending decision
'Raise Your Voice' Hacks Two Government Websites
Suleiman: Army Measures at Nahr al-Bared Stem from Keenness on Safety of Residents
Jumblat Says Neither March 8 nor March 14 Can Make Changes in Syria
Residents of Arsal Criticize U.N. Agencies over 'Insufficient' Aid to Syrian Refugees
Condemned U.S.-Lebanese Man Ruled Incompetent for Execution

No escape from Taif
Michael Young, June 16, 2012  
Now Lebanon/The National Dialogue sessions are to resume later this month, and the March 14 coalition hopes to bring to the table the matter of Hezbollah’s weapons. Will that undermine the ongoing discussions? Probably not, as there seems to be widespread support in Lebanon for the politicians and political parties to keep channels open.  Yet how might March 14 best address the issue of weapons? One idea that I have long advocated is to shift the parameters of debate with the Shia community and put on the table a quid pro quo: In exchange for implementing Taif, which, by deconfessionalizing parliament, would give Shia greater representation commensurate with their numbers, Hezbollah would be asked to approve a verifiable mechanism to place its weapons under the authority of the state.
 Moreover, an open forum on constitutional reform could be proposed to raise a wide variety of additional outstanding issues between the communities. This would include addressing Christian worries about deconfessionalization, establishment of a Senate, formulation of a fairer parliamentary election law and more.
 March 14 understandably hesitates when it comes to such proposals. In early June, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, called for the convening of a constituent assembly that would be tasked with studying ways to build “a true state” capable of providing its citizens with security and economic stability. Whenever Hezbollah talks about security, you know that its overriding objective is to impose a means to legitimize the party’s retention of its weapons.
There are two other fears that March 14 has, and they are equally reasonable. When Nasrallah mentions a constituent assembly, he is, plainly, talking about constitutional changes outside the parameters of the Taif Accord. What would that entail? Most likely, some suggest, a three-way division of seats in parliament between Shia, Sunnis, and Christians (with adjustments for the smaller communities), an idea that has also been floated by Michel Aoun. March 14 believes that Nasrallah and Aoun regard this as a means of installing a structural two-thirds to one-third majority over the Sunni community.
 A second worry is that if one begins to talk about integrating Hezbollah’s weapons into the Lebanese state, this will not mean very much if the party comes to control the army and the state. Indeed, Hezbollah’s ambition is to do precisely that, as its strategy today is focused on winning parliamentary elections next year, and following that a year later with the election of a president it favors.  However, Nasrallah is facing a more complicated situation than he imagines. Let us examine the three-way division of power idea. The reality is that a majority of Christians will never endorse such a mad scheme, because it would only formalize their numerical decline by overhauling the current 50-50 ratio of Christians to Muslims in parliament, while handing them nothing tangible in return. The notion that Christians view their long-term salvation in an alliance with Shia is also absurd—or, for that matter, with the Sunnis. Communal politics is about shifting alliances and interests, not about ganging up on a single community. As ludicrous is the assumption that Aoun influences most Christians in making such choices. Maronites in particular are divided over the fundamental challenges of Lebanese political life, so that prospects for a consensus over a three-way division of parliament seem remote.
But if Christians aren’t willing to see their parliamentary representation cut down in a three-way scheme, some might respond, why would they go along with Taif, which mandates the abolition of sectarian quotas entirely? That’s not an easy question to answer, but Taif has two things going for it: First, it outlines the creation of a Senate, in which the 50-50 communal ratio is preserved, reassuring the Christians; and second, the deconfessionalization of parliament would apply to all communities, meaning Christians would be part of a larger process that offers advantages and disadvantages to all.
In other words, officializing a three-way communal split in parliament introduces rigidity into the system: Christians could never aspire to more than a third of seats, and may find themselves hopelessly outvoted if Sunnis and Shia unite. In contrast, Taif has a sectarian safety net, through a Senate, while imposing no caps on communal representation. And it is not a momentary pastime, the product of a short-term interpretation of political circumstances today as defined by Nasrallah and Aoun.
What of the argument that if Hezbollah controls the state and the army, any plan to place the party’s weapons under the authority of the state and army becomes meaningless? In fact, the state and army are houses of many mansions, mirroring the impossible complexities and contradictions of Lebanese society. It would be hubris on the part of Hezbollah to assume that it could put an indefinite lock on state institutions, especially on an army that has substantial numbers of Sunnis in its ranks. If the party were to accept any measure of state control over its weapons, this would be a valuable wedge to exploit.
March 14 should direct an arms-versus-expanded-political-representation proposition at Shia in general, not just at Hezbollah. This may seem unimportant, even counterproductive, since Hezbollah remains so influential among its coreligionists. However, it is necessary to underline that, ultimately, any negotiations over reform should transcend specific politicians and organizations, and aim toward a broader social contract within and between communities. There is no reason to restrict participation in a national reform project to the major representatives of the communities. 
We shouldn’t expect breakthroughs when it comes to Hezbollah’s arms. But March 14 must reaffirm the importance of Taif as the framework for any future negotiations over power-sharing. If that means tying Taif into a debate over weapons, all the better. Nasrallah and Aoun are trying to run away from Taif. We mustn’t let them.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Report: Syria Allegedly Moving Scud Missiles to Hizbullah

Naharnet/16 June 2012/..Israel expressed concern on Saturday after reports emerged that Syrian president Bashar Assad may be losing control over military assets, including air defense base. According to Israeli channel 10, concern is mounting in Israel over the possibility that Hizbullah will try to move sophisticated weaponry, including Scud missiles, from Syria to Lebanon to protect them in the event of Assad's downfall.  The channel obtained air footage of the scud missiles transport to unknown whereabouts. The channel reporter Alon Ben-David said that the video increases the Israeli authorities fear over the possibility of the Syrian arms reaching organizations like Hizbullah. The scud missiles are shown to be moved from the Syrian capital Damascus as the regime fears that its missile arsenal is being jeopardized. “With Syria in the midst of an uprising, there is concern that Hizbullah might try to move the missiles into Lebanon to prevent them from being captured by rebels or militias,” the Jerusalem Post newspaper said. The daily noted that the delivery of Scud missiles to Hizbullah would be a significant increase to the organization’s capabilities. Syrian Scud Ds have a range of about 700 kilometers and can carry non-conventional warheads.

Maronite Bishops Back Baabda Declaration as Means to Stability
Naharnet/16 June 2012/The Maronite bishops synod backed on Saturday the Baabda Declaration made following the national dialogue held last week, saying it guarantees security stability in Lebanon. Following a six-day synod held under Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkirki, the bishops said in a statement they have high hopes on the all-party talks held under President Michel Suleiman.  They backed the declaration issued following the national dialogue session, saying it is a foundation for the end of the political, economic and social crisis in the country, and leads to security. In the Baabda Declaration, 16 political leaders from both the March 8 majority coalition and the March 14 opposition agreed to avoid rhetoric that fuels sectarian incitement. They also pledged to consolidate stability to prevent the country from descending into strife.
The bishops also urged authorities to implement a development plan for the industry, agriculture and tourism sectors and called for providing job opportunities for the Lebanese.  The statement said the bishops were looking forward for Pope Benedict XVI’s visit to Lebanon from where he will announce the apostolic exhortation, which represents the conclusion of a Middle Eastern synod in 2010 that emphasized the defense of Christian minorities in the region. The Vatican said on Thursday that preparations for the pope 's trip to Lebanon in September are going ahead despite the escalating conflict in Syria. "There is no uncertainty about the preparations," Benedict's spokesman Federico Lombardi said. "The Holy See is doing everything to make sure the trip takes place as planned" on September 14-16.
I.MEDIA, an agency specializing in Vatican news, had said Wednesday that the unrest in Syria and its impact on Lebanon had put Benedict XVI's visit in doubt. The statement also praised al-Rahi for his tour of bishoprics in Lebanon and his visits to countries around the world where he met with Lebanese community members. The bishops synod ended on Saturday with a mass that was celebrated by al-Rahi, who in his sermon, welcomed the election of five new bishops during the six-day gathering.

Bkirki elects five new bishops for Lebanon, Cairo, Jerusalem
June 16, 2012 02/The Daily Star / BEIRUT: The Maronite Church elected five bishops Saturday to head dioceses in Lebanon, Egypt and Jerusalem. During a retreat in Bkirki, Maronite bishops elected Joseph Mouawad as deputy for administrative affairs in Bkirki, and priests Maroun Ammar as bishop of Jubba and Bsharri, Bulous Rouhana as bishop of Sarba, George Shayhan as bishop of Cairo and Musa al-Haj as bishop of the diocese of Jerusalem. Bishop Camille Zaydan was reassigned to the diocese of Antelias.

Nasrallah: Hezbollah can hit all essential targets in Israel
June 16, 2012/The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said Friday that his party's missiles can reach all important targets in Israel, adding that the resistance's military capabilities have advanced compared to the past. "The resistance party's missiles are now capable of reaching all vital targets inside occupied Palestine," local and foreign media quoted Nasrallah as saying. He also noted Israel's acknowledgment of Hezbollah's deterrent missile capabilities. Nasrallah said that it was no longer viable to compare Hezbollah’s military capabilities today with those it wielded in the past. The Hezbollah leader, who has repeatedly said that his party is better equipped and stronger now than it was in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war, also said that Israel is weaker today than at any other time, downplaying the Jewish state's threats against Iran's nuclear power plants. "[Israel's] threats are merely part of a psychological war and an attempt to blackmail the international community," he said

US military intervention in Syria – “Not if but when”
http://www.debka.com/article/22088/US-military-intervention-in-Syria-–-“Not-if-but-when
DEBKAfile Special Report June 16, 2012/ As the violence in Syria continued to go from bad to worse in scope and intensity, US official sources had this to say Saturday, June 16,  about planned US military operations in the war-torn country: “The intervention will happen. It is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when.’” A Syrian Free Army rebel delegation is now in Washington to talk about their requests for heavy weapons from the Obama administration. In their meetings with US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and the State Department’s expert on Syria Fred Hof, the rebel leaders handed in two lists for approval: types of heavy weapons capable of challenging Bashar Assad’s armed forces and selected targets of attack to destabilize his regime. debkafile’s Washington sources disclose that the administration is very near a decision on the types of weapons to be shipped to the Syrian rebels and when. Most of the items Washington is ready to send have been purchased by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and are ready for shipment. The White House is also close to deciding on the format of its military operation in Syria. Some sources are defining it as “Libya lite” – that is, a reduced-scale version of the no-fly zone imposed on Libya two years ago and the direct air and other strikes which toppled the Qaddafi regime.
Following reports of approaching US military intervention in Syria and a Russian marine contingent heading for Tartus port, the UN observer mission in Syria has suspended operations and patrols. Its commander Maj. Gen. Robert Mood said, “Violence has been intensifying over the past 10 days by both parties with losses and significant risks to our observers.” He said the risk is approaching an unacceptable level and could prompt the 300 observers to pull out of the country. Friday, June 15, debkafile reported: A contingent of Russian special forces is on its way to Syria to guard the Russian navy’s deep-water port at the Syria’s Mediterranean coastal town of Tartus, Pentagon officials informed US NBC TV Friday, June 15. They are coming by ship. According to debkafile’s sources, the contingent is made up of naval marines and is due to land in Syria in the coming hours. In a separate and earlier announcement, US Defense Department sources in Washington reported that the US military had completed its own planning for a variety of US operations against Syria, or for assisting neighboring countries in the event action was ordered – a reference, according to our sources, to Turkey, Jordan and Israel. The Syrian civil war is now moving into a new phase of major power military intervention, say debkafile’s military sources. Moscow, by sending troops to Syria without UN Security Council approval, has set a precedent for the United States, the European Union and Arab governments to follow. They all held back from sending troops to Syria because all motions to apply force for halting the bloodshed in Syria were blocked in the UN body by Russia and China. According to US military sources, in recent weeks, the Pentagon has finalized its assessment of what types of units would be needed and how many troops. The military planning includes a scenario for a no-fly zone as well as protecting chemical and biological sites. The U.S. Navy is maintaining a presence of three surface combatants and a submarine in the eastern Mediterranean to conduct electronic surveillance and reconnaissance on the Syrian regime, a senior Pentagon official said.

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef, next in line to throne, dies
By The Associated Press | Jun.16,
Hard-line interior minister spearheaded Saudi Arabia's fierce crackdown crushing al-Qaida's branch in the country; in 2002 interview, he accused the Jews of being behind 9/11. Crown Prince Nayef, the hard-line interior minister who spearheaded Saudi Arabia's fierce crackdown crushing al-Qaida's branch in the country after the 9/11 attacks in the United States and then rose to become next in line to the throne, has died. He was in his late 70s. Nayef's death unexpectedly reopens the question of succession in this crucial U.S. ally and oil powerhouse for the second time in less than a year. The 88-year-old King Abdullah has now outlived two designated successors, despite ailments of his own. Now a new crown prince must be chosen from among his brothers and half-brothers, all the sons of Saudi Arabia's founder, Abdul-Aziz. The figure believed most likely to be tapped as the new heir is Prince Salman, the current defense minister who previously served for decades in the powerful post of governor of Riyadh, the capital. The crown prince will be chosen by the Allegiance Council, an assembly of Abdul-Aziz's sons and some of his grandchildren. A statement by the royal family said Nayef died Saturday in a hospital abroad. Saudi-funded pan-Arab TV station Al-Arabiya later confirmed he died in Geneva. Nayef had been out of the country since late May, when he went on a trip that was described as a "personal vacation" that would include medical tests. He travelled abroad frequently in recent years for tests but authorities never reported what ailments he may have been suffering from. Nayef had a reputation for being a hard-liner and a conservative. He was believed to be closer than many of his brothers to the powerful Wahhabi religious establishment that gives legitimacy to the royal family, and he at times worked to give a freer hand to the religious police who enforce strict social rules.
His elevation to crown prince in November 2011, after the death of his brother Sultan, had raised worries among liberals in the kingdom that, if he ever became king, he would halt or even roll back reforms that Abdullah had enacted. Soon after becoming crown prince, Nayef vowed at a conference of clerics that Saudi Arabia would "never sway from and never compromise on" its adherence to the puritanical, ultraconservative Wahhabi doctrine. The ideology, he proclaimed "is the source of the kingdom's pride, success and progress." Nayef had expressed some reservations about some of the reforms by Abdullah, who made incremental steps to bring more democracy to the country and increase women's rights. Nayef said he saw no need for elections in the kingdom or for women to sit on the Shura Council, an unelected advisory body to the king that is the closest thing to a parliament. His top concern was security in the kingdom and maintaining a fierce bulwark against Shiite powerhouse, Iran, according to U.S. Embassy assessments of Nayef. "A firm authoritarian at heart," was the description of Nayef in a 2009 Embassy report on him, leaked by the whistleblower site WikiLeaks. "He harbors anti-Shia biases and his worldview is colored by deep suspicion of Iran," it said. "Nayef promotes a vision for Saudi society under the slogan of 'intellectual security,' which he advocates as needed to 'purge aberrant ideas"' and combat extremism, it added, noting that his was in contrast to Abdullah's strategy emphasizing "dialogue, tolerance of differences, and knowledge-based education that is objectionable to many conservatives."
Nayef, who was interior minister in charge of internal security forces since 1975, built up his power in the kingdom though his fierce crackdown against al-Qaida's branch in the country following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in the United States and a broader campaign to prevent the growth of Islamic militancy among Saudis.
The 9/11 attacks at first strained ties between the two allies. For months, the kingdom refused to acknowledge any of its citizens were involved in the suicide airline bombings, until finally Nayef became the first Saudi official to publicly confirm that 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis, in a February 2002 interview with The Associated Press.
In November 2002, Nayef told the Arabic-language Kuwaiti daily Assyasah that Jews were behind the Sept. 11 attacks because they have benefited from subsequent criticism of Islam and Arabs. Nayef came under heavy criticism in the U.S., especially because he was the man in charge of Saudi investigations into the attack. Criticism grew in the United States that the Saudis were not doing enough to stem extremism in their country or combat al-Qaida.
In mid-2003, Islamic militants struck inside the kingdom, targeting three residential expatriate compounds … the first of a string of assaults that later hit government buildings, the U.S. consulate in Jiddah and the perimeter of the world's largest oil processing facility in Abqaiq. Al-Qaida's branch in the country announced its aim to overthrow Al Saud royal family. The attacks galvanized the government into serious action against the militants, an effort spearheaded by Nayef. Over the next years, dozens of attacks were foiled, hundreds of militants were rounded up and killed. By 2008, it was believed that al-Qaida's branch was largely broken in the country. Militant leaders who survived or were not jailed largely fled to Yemen, where they joined Yemeni militants in reviving al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Nayef took a leading role in combatting the branch in Yemen as well. In 2009, al-Qaida militants attempted to assassinate his son, Prince Muhammad, who is deputy interior minister and the commander of counterterrorism operations: A suicide bomber posing as a repentant militant blew himself up in the same room as the prince but failed to kill him. The cooperation against al-Qaida both in the kingdom and in Yemen significantly boosted ties with the United States.
The anti-militant campaign also boosted Nayef's ties to the religious establishment, which he saw as a major tool in keeping stability and preventing the spread of violent al-Qaida-style "jihadi" theology. The Wahhabi ideology that is the official law in Saudi Arabia is deeply conservative … including strict segregation of the sexes, capital punishments like beheadings and enforced prayer times … but it also advocates against al-Qaida's calls for holy war against leaders seen as infidels.
Nayef's Interior Ministry allied with clerics in a "rehabilitation" program for detained militants, who went through intensive courses with clerics in "correct" Islam to sway them away from violence. The program brought praise from the United States. Nayef never clashed with Abdullah over reforms or made attempts to stop them … such a step would be unthinkable in the tight-knit royal family, whose members work hard to keep differences under wraps and ultimately defer to the king. But Nayef was long seen as more favorable to the Wahhabi establishment. In 2009, Nayef promptly shut down a film festival in the Red Sea port city of Jiddah, apparently because of conservatives' worry about the possibility of gender mixing in theaters and a general distaste toward film as immoral. Nayef, a soft-spoken, stocky man of medium build, was born in 1933, the 23rd son of Abdul-Aziz, the family patriarch who founded the kingdom in 1932 and had dozens of sons by various wives. Nayef was one of the five surviving members of the Sudairi seven, sons of Abdul-Aziz from his wife Hussa bint Ahmad Sudairi who, for decades, have held influential posts. That made him a half-brother of King Abdullah. Before being appointed interior minister, he held the posts of Riyadh governor, deputy minister of interior and minister of state for internal affairs. Nayef has 10 children from several wives.

UN observers in Syria suspend activities
Reuters Latest Update:  06.16.12/Ynetnews
Chief of UN observers says mission suspended over escalating violence; at least 12 killed Saturday as Assad's troops step-up offensive against rebel forces in Damascus suburbs. Syrian government troops shelled suburbs of the capital Damascus, killing at least 12 people in a stepped-up regime offensive on rebel areas around the country, activists said Saturday.  Most of the deaths occurred overnight in the restive suburb of Douma, where regime forces fired mortars that struck a residential building, killing eight people. Douma-based activist Mohammed Saeed and the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of activists on the ground, said that four people were killed in the shelling of Arbeen and Tall suburbs. "The regime is trying to purge the suburbs of the capital of all resistance," Saeed said. He said the fire on the suburbs was indiscriminate and that a man, his wife and their child died when a mortar shell hit their apartment in Arbeen. Saeed said UN observers deployed in Syria to monitor the cease-fire, which never really took hold, have not been to Douma in over a week. "But anyway, all they can do is record what they see, they cannot help," he said.
Observers suspend mission
The chief of UN observers in Syria said Saturday that the mission is suspending its activities and patrols because of escalating violence in the country. Maj. Gen. Robert Mood said in a statement that the bloodshed is posing significant risks to the observers and is impeding their ability to carry out their mandate. He says the observers will not be conducting patrols and will stay in their locations in the country "until further notice." The suspension will be reviewed on a daily basis. The suspension is the latest sign that a peace plan brokered by international envoy Kofi Annan is disintegrating. The regime and the opposition have both ignored the cease-fire, which was supposed to go into effect April 12. Activists say some 14,000 people have been killed since the uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March 2011. The uprising began as a largely peaceful protest movement but has since morphed into an insurgency seeking to topple the regime.

U.S. says weighing 'next steps' with partners on Syria
By Reuters | Jun.16, 2012/Following the suspension of operations by UN observers, U.S. calls on Syria to uphold its committments under the Annan plan. The White House said on Saturday it was consulting with international partners on "next steps" in the Syrian crisis after UN observers suspended operations there in response to violence that has escalated despite a ceasefire deal. "We call again on the Syrian regime to uphold its commitments under the Annan plan, including the full implementation of a ceasefire," White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement. U.S. officials have voiced growing skepticism about Syrian President Bashar Assad's willingness to comply with the tattered plan brokered by international mediator Kofi Annan. But Washington and its Western allies have shown no appetite for a Libya-style military intervention even as Moscow has helped shield Assad from tougher UN measures. "At this critical juncture, we are consulting with our international partners regarding next steps toward a Syrian-led political transition as called for in Security Council resolutions," Vietor said. But he provided no specifics. "The sooner this transition takes place, the greater the chance of averting a lengthy and bloody sectarian civil war," Vietor said. Chief monitor General Robert Mood said earlier the fighting in Syria posed a threat to his unarmed observers and prevented them from carrying out their mandate to oversee Annan's widely ignored April 12 ceasefire. One of the observer mission's patrols was fired upon four days ago. Diplomats say Mood is expected to brief the UN Security Council on Monday or Tuesday about the unrest in Syria. U.S. President Barack Obama will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Mexico, but expectations are low for any significant progress for breaking the deadlock on Syria.

Iran's Ahmadinejad to leave politics in 2013
By DPA | Jun.16, 2012/Iranian president tells German magazine he wants to return to academia when his second term expires early next year. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to leave politics after his second term expires in early 2013, he told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung in comments to be published Sunday. "Eight years are enough," Ahmadinejad told the newspaper, which released highlights of the interview Saturday. "I plan to go back into academia." Ahmadinejad, 55, is an hydraulic construction engineer who was awarded a doctorate in 1997 for his research into transport systems. "Maybe I'll get involved politically at the university, but I'm not going to found any political party or grouping." Iran's constitution bans him from a third term following two consecutive terms. He ruled out standing aside for another candidate and then seeking a third term in a few years, as was recently done by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Stark choice for Egypt in presidential poll
CAIRO, (Reuters) - Egyptians queued to choose a new leader on Saturday in the first free presidential election in their history, facing a stark choice between a conservative Islamist and a former military officer who served ousted autocrat Hosni Mubarak. Reeling from a court order two days ago to dissolve a new parliament dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, many question whether the wealthy generals who pushed aside their fellow officer Mubarak last year to appease the pro-democracy protests of the Arab Spring will honor a pledge to let civilians rule.
With neither a parliament nor a new constitution in place to define the president's powers, voting on Saturday and Sunday will not settle the matter, leaving 82 million Egyptians, foreign investors and allies in the United States and Europe unsure what kind of state the most populous Arab nation will be.For those who preferred the secular centrists, leftists and moderate Islamists who lost in the first round, the two-man run-off leaves an unpalatable choice from the extremes.
Some of Egypt's 50 million eligible voters say they will despoil their ballots rather than back Ahmed Shafik, 70, a former air force commander who was Mubarak's last prime minister, or Mohammed Morsy, 60, of the Brotherhood, the clandestine enemy of army rule for six decades. But many were determined to make their voice heard. Queues formed early at some polling stations as they opened at 8 a.m. (02.00 a.m. EDT) for the first of two days of voting. A result could be known as early Sunday night, after the second day's vote. "I am going to vote for Shafik. He is a military man, ex-pilot and war commander. He has exactly what need in a leader. A strong military man to have a strong grip on the state and bring back security," said Hamdy Saif, 22, a student who like many Egyptians are desperate for order after Mubarak's overthrow. There are signs of exasperation with the Brotherhood's push for power on the back of a revolt driven in its early stages by the secular, urban middle class may limit Morsy's ability to widen his appeal beyond the Brotherhood's disciplined ranks.
The Brotherhood had secure the biggest bloc in parliament that was elected in a vote that ended in January, and initially said they would not field a presidential candidate but then changed tack at the last minute. The court ruling to dissolve parliament reverses those gain, and could help win some more sympathizers for the group. "I was going to vote for Shafik but after parliament was dissolved, I changed my mind and will vote Morsy. There is no more fear of the Islamists dominating everything," said Ahmed Attiya, 35, a IT technician in Cairo's Zamalek district. "Shafik represents a counter-revolution," he added.
EUPHORIA THEN FRUSTRATION
Critics denounced the parliament ruling as a coup and compared it to the start of the Algerian civil war, when the military cancelled an election won by Islamists 20 years ago. But the Brotherhood renounced violence as a means to achieve political change in Egypt decades ago and an Islamist uprising in the 1990s was put down by Mubarak and his security forces, which have survived last year's revolt intact. Although ordinary Egyptians are choosing their leader for the first time in a history that stretches back to pharaonic times, the euphoria that accompanied Mubarak's overthrow on February 11, 2011 has given way to exhaustion and frustration after a messy and often violent transition overseen by army generals.
Hardline Islamist violence this month in Tunis, where the first Arab Spring uprising inspired Egyptians to emulate their North African neighbors, has also hardened fears of political Islam, notably among those dependent on tourism for a living, secular activists, women and the Egypt's Christians, who make up a tenth of the nation. Both candidates have sought the center ground, promising to rule in the spirit of the revolution: "It is not correct that the military council wants to rule through me," Shafik said. Morsy, a last-minute choice for the Brotherhood after their preferred candidate was barred, has played down talk of a crackdown on beachwear and alcohol that would hurt tourism and steered away from confrontation with Israel after three decades of cool peace maintained during Mubarak's military-backed rule.
But both candidates are also defined by those who promoted them. The Brotherhood candidate says he is running because God expects him to offer his sacrifice for the nation. Shafik's air force career shadowed that of Mubarak, his elder by 13 years. "We are back to the political dynamic of secular versus Islamist, of a civil state versus an Islamist state," said Mona Makram Ebeid, a political scientist and member of a body that advises SCAF, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. "That is what we as political forces are confronted with today, causing almost a gridlock," she said, referring to months of wrangling between the army, Islamists, liberals and other parties seeking to carve a new course for the nation.
During Mubarak's era, his presidency was mainly endorsed in single-candidate referendums but in 2005, under pressure from his U.S. ally, he held a multi-candidate presidential race. No one was surprised when Mubarak cruised to an easy win because of rules that made it impossible to put up a realistic challenge.

Will there be a "jihad" in Syria?
By Mshari al-Zaydi/Asharq Alwsat
The British Foreign Secretary was right to compare the current situation in Syria to that of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where a catastrophic war raged from 1992 to 1995. The two scenarios share elements of civil and sectarian fighting, as well as the demarcation of new borders between communities and even villages, amidst the horrific bloodshed.
The Balkans crisis is still worthy of interpretation and contemplation: why did the Serbs suddenly crack down on their Bosnian Muslim neighbors, despite the fact that they had been neighbors for hundreds of years? At the time of the war, Bosnia - a country that is far from the Levant, at least in terms of distance - was an alluring stage for all Jihadists in the Muslim world. What happened in Bosnia is similar to what is happening now in Syria. I recently read an article in the New York Times reporting on the Alawite sect's current concerns now that a war has erupted between the Sunnis and the Alawites. The al-Assad regime seems to be adopting this war as a final solution or as a Samson Option to drag the Alawite sect – whether it likes it or not – into an existential battle. Even though there are moderate Alawites, and those who resist or criticize the regime, a positive outcome is not guaranteed for the pro-revolution majority, especially the Sunnis, following the rivers of blood that are being shed and the massacres that are being committed by the Alawite pro-regime Shabiha militia, who we now see chanting “Shabiha forever”. Weapons have finally entered the Syrian revolution, albeit late, after the uprising remained peaceful for 18 months despite the al-Assad forces brutal suppression, and despite the helplessness of the international community and the Arab League. For the Syrian people, carrying weapons is a matter of necessity for self-defense. In reality, the opposition’s small arms are still completely overwhelmed by missiles, tanks and jets used by al-Assad, his security apparatus, and the Shabiha barbarians.
However, for more than a year rational people warned that if the international and regional community failed to embrace the Syrian opposition and deal with it in the same welcoming manner that it dealt with the revolutions in Libya, Egypt and Yemen, then the revolutionaries would be forced to carry weapons and resort to guerrilla warfare. This was said clearly on more than one occasion, but such rationalism seems to have fallen on deaf ears. It is therefore ironic that everyone is expressing false amazement at the possibility of a civil war erupting in Syria, and this war transforming into a complex civil struggle extending across the entire Middle East region, in the words of joint UN-Arab League peace envoy Kofi Annan, as well as other politicians from across the world.  Al-Assad's army, his security apparatus and the Shabiha, overtly backed by his Russian and Iranian allies, alongside Iran's followers in Lebanon led by Hassan Nasrallah, are preying on the meat of local residents in the north and south without any form of deterrence. We have only seen initiatives and observer missions that have added further fuel to the fire; such as Sudanese General Mustafa al-Dabi’s "catastrophic" team, and Norwegian General Robert Mood’s subsequent mission.
Are the Syrian people simply expected to accept these killings, rapes and bombardment until Obama and Putin become convinced of a solution?
Apart from being a humanitarian disgrace, this is also political stupidity. If the international community opened its eyes and saw the real situation on the ground, it would seize the initiative and lead the Syrian opposition, unifying and protecting it from the infiltration of religious extremists by blocking out any sectarian interpretation of the Syrian crisis, something that it has so far failed to do. Aside from this failure, the international community seems astonished that the Syrian victims are now protecting themselves and carrying weapons.
The latest example of this immoral political approach came from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said that he wants to prevent the eruption of a civil and sectarian war in Syria, and also explicitly criticized Saudi Arabia for backing the Syrian opposition for sectarian reasons. Yet here Lavrov seems to have forgotten that he, alongside President Putin and Iran, are providing al-Assad with all kinds of arms as well as other forms of intelligence and political support.
Can you believe his audacity?
To summarize, this incompetent international handling of the Syrian file has been compounded by the fact that everybody – from Washington to London, as well as Moscow – say they want to prevent Syria sliding towards chaos and a civil war; meaning a war between the Sunnis and the Shiites. Yet, their actions are actually leading to this outcome!  Perhaps what I will say now will upset the Free Syrian Army [FSA], the Syrian opposition and whoever champions them, but nevertheless…
Last week, FSA leader Riad al-Asaad dismissed an incorrect news item reporting that Kuwaiti nationals are now fighting alongside the FSA on Syrian soil. The Kuwaiti "al-Qabas" newspaper reported – in its Sunday issue – the news that Kuwaitis had entered Syrian territory to join the FSA in its fight against government troops. Yet according to the Kuwaiti al-Watan newspaper, Colonel al-Asaad stressed that reports of other Arab nationalities fighting with the FSA were incorrect. He said "the Syrian regime is seeking to spread this news in order to mislead the world."
Personally, I understand the logic of Riad al-Asaad, whose aim is to react to Bashar al-Assad media propaganda and its trumpets, which is highly adept at telling lies and providing camouflage. This is all well and good; however this is one thing whereas I mean to comment on something else. I think now that the massacres which the al-Assad regime is committing against Sunni civilians and non-Sunni revolutionaries have escalated - as was evident in the town of Salmiya - the Syrian arena has become an alluring one for anybody seeking to carry out "jihad" against the "tyrannical" ruler in Damascus.
Bashar al-Assad has made himself an ideal target for the Jihadists, for he meets all the conditions and criteria of pure evil in their eyes: he is bloodthirsty to the extreme, hostile to the Sunnis, and serves as an agent of Iran. These all are ideal characteristics that could prompt impressionable youths, or those who see the world only as a war between Muslims and non-Muslims and who are eager to fight.
Everyone knows that Bashar al-Assad and his apparatus has previously tried to benefit from such wild Jihadist energy in Iraq and Lebanon. He exploited the Fatah al-Islam group in Lebanon, and then used some Jihadist sheikhs to recruit Arab youths and send them to Iraq, where they engaged with the US troops there. Five years after Saddam Hussein was toppled, Syria was transformed into a rear operating base for [Abu Musab] al-Zarqawi and others in Iraq. Now, al-Assad may have a taste of his own medicine. In February 2011, Ayman al-Zawahri, the current leader of Al Qaeda, was reported to have issued his second call for Jihad in Syria against the al-Assad regime, urging Jihadists to fight "in the Levant to create state that can protect Islam". He also encouraged resilience and perseverance "against the sectarian secular regime [in Syria]."
The crux of the matter, as I mentioned previously on several occasions, is that the revolution in Syria started out as a free and patriotic movement, away from any sectarian tendencies. Indeed, one of the revolution’s most popular early slogan’s was “the Syrian people are one." The FSA's battalions were named after patriotic Syrian symbols such as Sultan al-Atrash and Saleh al-Ali – the former belonging to the Druze sect and the latter being an Alawite. However, as al-Assad’s excessive killings and international weakness - or rather conspiracies - continued, the people found their backs against the wall and had no choice but to defend themselves using all means available, including waging war in the name of religion. This is the result of the international and Arab community’s catastrophic administration of a revolution that was once seen as one of the most sublime and noble Arab revolutions, in terms of its courage and civil discourse.  We still hope that it is not too late.

Egypt: A setback or a correction?
By Tariq Alhomayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat
Anybody looking at the bigger picture in Egypt, away from previous positions or what is being repeated by some media outlets with regards to clichés and public polls, will find that Egypt is now – following the dissolution of parliament by the Supreme Constitutional Court’s ruling – facing a very dangerous turning point. This means that Egypt is either facing a setback, God forbid, or an important corrective step.
Today, the delusions have been dispelled, and there are many such delusions in Egypt and elsewhere held by all those who are concerned by the Egyptian scene. The most prominent delusion to have been dispelled is the talk about a secret agreement between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces [SCAF]. Another delusion that has been disproven is regarding the influence of “million man” marches, Twitter and Facebook. Indeed there is a long list of delusions that have established themselves in Egypt since the fall of the Mubarak regime that have been disproven. However the story is not just one of delusions, but also the revelation of mistakes that have been made by everybody in Egypt, whether by the revolutionaries or the other political forces, and this includes – in fact this list is headed by – the Muslim Brotherhood. It seems that everybody has forgotten that a broad segment of Egyptian society did not appear in Tahrir Square or get involved in similar activity on social networking websites. This segment of society has real fears over the reality in Egypt today, not to mention the country’s future. Will the crisis worsen and the Egyptian economy collapse completely? This is a very dangerous but possible scenario. Will Egypt become a religious state, which means that the country will face decades of crises the likes of which God only knows? These are important questions, and it is clear that most political forces in Egypt have failed to comprehend them, particularly as some of these political blocs were overcome by their unrealistic dreams, all the while the Muslim Brotherhood sought to predominate all of Egypt, from parliament to the Shura Council, and even the presidency and the Constitutional Committee, in what represents an unprecedentedly stupid political policy. This confirms that the Muslim Brotherhood excels at the art of haggling and bickering, but they lack any political cunning, not to mention political rationality and an understanding of statesmanship.
If the Egyptian people accept the Supreme Constitutional Court’s ruling to dissolve parliament and move forward in their participation of the presidential run-off, distinguishing between the choices of a civil state and a religious state, in addition to the fragmented political forces – particularly the youth –organizing their ranks in preparations for the forthcoming parliamentary elections, and prior to this, the battle over drafting the constitution, this would mean that Egypt is facing a large and important corrective movement, and everybody will benefit from this. The most important thing is for Egypt itself to benefit, particularly as the Egyptians must pay attention and be aware that they have gained a strong and respected institution today, namely the judiciary, which took the position it took against former president Mubarak. As for if the Egyptians trade accusations of treason and continue to weave delusions over secret agreements and more, or boycott the presidential elections or promote the story of “remnants [of the former regime]” versus Islamists, rather than viewing this as being a choice between a civil state and religious state, then this – unfortunately – means that Egypt is on the verge of a severe setback and not a corrective movement! Therefore, the political forces in Egypt today should consider the mistakes they have made, and organize their ranks because this is a second opportunity, and these come along rarely!

Islamic Terror vs. Norway Massacre: Chicken or Egg?
by Raymond Ibrahim/Jihad Watch
June 14, 2012
http://www.meforum.org/3263/islamic-terror-norway-massacre
Ever since last year's Norway massacre, when Anders Breivik killed some 70 people, the relativists and Muslim apologists of the world felt exonerated: for here at last, thought they, was proof positive that terrorism had nothing to do with Islamic teachings per se. If Christianity cannot be blamed for Breivik, why blame Islam for al-Qaeda? This question was restated in a recent email to me from Gehan D. Sabry, editor of Cross Cultures, a website dedicated to "Promoting Harmony Through Knowledge and Better Understanding." Regarding my recent article, "A Tale of Two American Martyrs," where I discussed the slayings of two American Christians in the Muslim world due to allegations of proselytizing, she wrote:
[…] I know enough fellow Christians who agree with me that the majority of Muslims and Christians, in fact the moderates of ALL religions ... get along just fine, and only the radicals of each are the ones who make the news, and cause turmoil and tragedy in this world ... when I read this article of yours, I immediately remembered the psycho from Norway who killed over 70 youth recently ... why don't you try to explain that away for me? My explanation, which may be of general interest—this question of moral equivalency plagues the many who think on superficial terms—follows:
First, the two murdered American teachers were killed by Muslims under accusations of proselytism. As it happens, according to mainstream Islamic interpretations of Sharia, proselytizing Muslims is a capital offence. In fact, it is mentioned as far back as the so-called Pact of Omar, which Muslim doctrinaires still quote from, and which delineates what non-Muslims (it was first made with Christians in Syria) must—and must not—do to safeguard their blood.
One of the stipulations they had to agree to was, "We shall not manifest our religion publicly nor convert anyone to it." At the very end of the pact, they had to agree that "If we in any way violate these undertakings for which we ourselves stand surety, we forfeit our covenant, and we become liable to the penalties for contumacy and sedition," which is death.
Thus the Muslims who killed the American teachers accused of Christian proselytism had doctrinal backing from Islam—one that, by the way, has manifested itself regularly throughout the course of Muslim history. On the other hand, Anders Breivik had absolutely no Christian support—doctrinal or scriptural—for his shooting spree. Nor did he articulate his terror in the name of religion, the way Koran-waving Islamic terrorists do daily. The importance of this contrast should be clear to objective thinkers.
Also, as earlier explained, the terror campaign of Breivik—who openly confessed that al-Qaeda was his "inspiration" to the point that he tried to emulate its tactics by beheading and videotaping his victims—was influenced, consciously or subconsciously, by Islamic-style jihad and terror.
Finally, let us not overlook the fact that the American teachers who were killed by Muslims, and the 70 Norwegians who were killed by Breivik, were all killed in response to Islam—the former directly, the latter indirectly. Along with the countless non-Muslims daily persecuted under Islam, the Americans were slain in direct accordance with Islam's anti-infidel laws. Conversely, though only Breivik is directly responsible for his murderous spree, it was, nonetheless, indirectly prompted by his conviction (shared among many Europeans) that Islam—from mass and illegal immigration, to calls for Sharia and death for cartoon publishers—is making cataclysmic inroads in Europe. Without removing the sole responsibility from Breivik, the question is: Would there have been a Norway massacre if there was no Islam in Europe—with all the troubles associated with it?
**Raymond Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and an Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Question: "What are the essentials of the Christian faith?"

GotQuestions.org?
Answer: The Bible itself reveals what is important and essential to the Christian faith. These essentials are the deity of Christ, salvation by God’s grace and not by works, salvation through Jesus Christ alone, the resurrection of Christ, the Gospel, monotheism and the Holy Trinity. These are the main “essentials” that we should understand and believe if we are followers of Jesus Christ. Let’s look at all of these in a little more detail.
The deity of Christ. Quite simply, Jesus is God. While Jesus never directly says, “I am God” in the Scriptures, He makes it very clear to those around Him, especially the Pharisees and Sadducees, that He is God. John 10:30 says, “I and the Father are one.” Jesus was claiming deity, and, interestingly enough, He did not deny that He was God. Another example is John 20:28, when Thomas says, “My Lord and my God!” Again, Jesus does not correct Him by saying that He is not God. There are many other examples one can find in the Scriptures regarding Jesus’ rightful place in heaven.
Salvation by grace. We are all sinners separated from God and deserving of eternal punishment for our sin. Jesus’ death on the cross paid for the sins of mankind, giving us access to heaven and an eternal relationship with God. God did not have to do this for us, but He loves us so much that He sacrificed His only Son. This is grace, and it is most definitely undeserved favor. Scripture tells us, “For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith—and this not from yourselves, it is the gift of God not by works, so that no one can boast” (Ephesians 2:8-9). There is nothing we can do to earn God’s favor or gain access to heaven apart from His grace.
Salvation through Jesus Christ alone. A truly provocative question to ask someone might be “Do all roads lead to God?” The truth is that all roads do lead to God. Eventually, we are all going to stand before God when we die, no matter what faith we are. It is there that we will be judged for what we have or have not done while we were alive and whether Jesus Christ is Lord of our lives. For the majority of people, this will be a terrible occasion, as most will not know Him or be known by Him. For these people, hell will be the final destination. But God in His mercy has provided all of us the only means for salvation through His Son, Jesus Christ. Acts 4:12 tells us that “salvation is found in no one else, for there is no other name under heaven given to men by which we must be saved.” This passage speaks of the name of Jesus and His saving power. Another example is found in the book of John. Jesus answered, “I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me” (John 14:6). No one gets into heaven except by faith in the saving work of the Lord Jesus Christ on his or her behalf.
The resurrection of Christ. Perhaps no other event in the Bible, aside from Jesus’ appearance here on earth and subsequent death on the cross, is as significant to the Christian faith as that of the resurrection. Why is this event significant? The answer lies in the fact that Jesus died and then after three days came back to life and rose again to reappear to His followers in bodily form. Jesus had already demonstrated His ability to resurrect others such as His friend Lazarus. But now God the Father had resurrected Him to display His awesome power and glory. This amazing fact is what separates the Christian faith from all others. All other religions are based on works or a powerless deity or person. The leaders of all other religions die and remain dead. The Christian faith is based on Christ crucified and resurrected to life. “And if Christ has not been raised, then our preaching is in vain and your faith is in vain” (1 Corinthians 15:14). Lastly, to deny Christ’s bodily resurrection (John 2:19-21) is to deny that Jesus’ work here on earth was a satisfactory offering to God for the sins of mankind.
The gospel. In 1 Corinthians 15:1-4, Paul spells out what the gospel is and how important it is to embrace it and share it with others. He reminds the Corinthians of the gospel he preached among them: “That Christ died for our sins in accordance with the Scriptures, that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day in accordance with the Scriptures.” This is the essence of the gospel. Paul also warns us to be wary of the many “false gospels” that are being offered to the unsuspecting: “But even if we or an angel from heaven should preach to you a gospel contrary to the one we preached to you, let him be accursed. As we have said before, so now I say again: If anyone is preaching to you a gospel contrary to the one you received, let him be accursed” (Galatians 1:8-9). The pure gospel of Jesus Christ—His death on the cross for sinners and His resurrection to everlasting life—is central to the Christian faith.
Monotheism. Quite simply, there is only one God. Exodus 20:3 states very powerfully, “You shall have no other gods before me.” Monotheism is the belief that there is only one God to be worshipped and served. “‘You are my witnesses,’ declares the LORD, ‘and my servant whom I have chosen, that you may know and believe me and understand that I am he. Before me no god was formed, nor shall there be any after me’” (Isaiah 43:10). Here we see that we are to “believe” and “understand” that God lives and is one. A Christian will know that there is only one God, the God of the Bible. All other “gods” are false and are no gods at all. “For even if there are so-called gods, whether in heaven or on earth (as indeed there are many ‘gods’ and many ‘lords’), yet for us there is but one God, the Father, from whom all things came and for whom we live; and there is but one Lord, Jesus Christ, through whom all things came and through whom we live” (1 Corinthians 8:5-6).
The Holy Trinity. While the concept of a “three-in-one God” is not represented by a single verse or passage, it is described frequently throughout Scripture. If we look at Matthew 28:19, we see the verse calling out the Trinity: “Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit.” While this verse mentions all three Persons of the triune God, it does not call them the Trinity. So to understand the doctrine of the Holy Trinity, we must look at the “totality” of Scripture and glean from it the definition. In 1 Corinthians 12:4-6, we see how this comes together: “Now there are varieties of gifts, but the same Spirit; and there are varieties of service, but the same Lord; and there are varieties of activities, but it is the same God who empowers them all in everyone.” Again, we see all three Persons being represented but not titled the Holy Trinity.
Finally, the essentials of Christianity would not be complete without the ingredient that binds everything together—faith. “Now faith is the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen” (Hebrews 11:1). As Christians we live by this verse with the understanding that we believe in a God we cannot see. But we see His work in our lives and all around us in His creation. We do all of this through faith because we know that faith pleases God. “And without faith it is impossible to please him, for whoever would draw near to God must believe that he exists and that he rewards those who seek him” (Hebrews 11:6).
Recommended Resource: The Moody Handbook of Theology by Paul Enns.


The Man Who Would Be King
Simon Henderson /ForeignPolicy.com
April 10, 2012/Washington Institute
Saudi Arabia's ruling clique is dying off, and it may be up to the new defense minister to guide the kingdom through a turbulent Middle East.
The senior members of the Saudi royal family are looking increasingly frail, and the buzz in the Gulf is that there will be not just one, but two, changes in the kingdom's leadership during the course of the next year. Although there is no fixed succession plan if that comes to pass, the newly minted defense minister, Prince Salman, looks well placed to ascend to the throne.
The evidence suggests that Saudi Arabia's current ruling clique is on its last legs. This week, the 89-year-old King Abdullah presided over the usual meeting of the council of ministers from the vantage point of his own palace in Riyadh rather than travelling to the council building. Propped up in his chair, a cushion supporting his back, he looked as uncomfortable personally as he probably was politically with the state of the Arab world. It grieves him that Syria, a country with which he has family ties, is in such bloody turmoil, and it infuriates him that Washington does not share his view of the danger of Iran.
Within a day or so, the Saudi heir to the throne, the 79-year-old Crown Prince Nayef, is due to return home after more than a month away from the kingdom. He initially went to Morocco on "vacation," but within a week traveled to Cleveland, Ohio, for "routine" medical tests, before flying to Algeria. Such an itinerary -- and an absence of photographs of him since leaving Cleveland -- has raised speculation that he is unwell. In recent months, he has added a stick to his wardrobe and regained a steroidal puffiness, renewing speculation that cancer, probably leukemia, has returned after an apparent respite of several years. A leadership role is increasingly being taken by Prince Salman, 76 years old, who was promoted to minister of defense last November after the death of then Crown Prince Sultan. The pages of Saudi newspapers have been filled in recent weeks by reports and photos of Salman visiting military units across the country. And last week, Salman visited London in a major demonstration of Riyadh's close military-supply relationship with Britain, its most significant link after its longtime alliance with the United States. Bypassing the U.S. capital may conveniently have served to emphasize that the White House's apparent obsession with political change in the Middle East is not appreciated in Riyadh.
As a former long-serving governor of the kingdom's giant Riyadh province, Salman is a known quantity to visiting international dignitaries. However, his familiarity with the world does not make him particularly worldly. Soon after the terror attacks on New York and Washington of September 2001, he told newly arrived U.S. ambassador Robert Jordan that the 9/11 attacks had been a "Zionist plot." The ambassador had to request that CIA briefers visit the kingdom to convince royals, including then Crown Prince Abdullah and Prince Nayef, otherwise (Jordan related this story during a 2009 Washington Institute Policy Forum).
Even if Salman soon becomes king, he is no spring chicken himself -- there is no certainty that he will reign for long. Salman himself has had at least one stroke -- photographs suggest that despite physiotherapy his left arm does not work as well as his right. And his line of the family has a history of health problems: his two oldest sons, Fahd and Ahmad, have already died as a result of heart problems. Saudi Arabia -- the world's largest oil exporter and a leader in the Islamic world and Arab world -- may still be a long way from political stability. As nature abhors a vacuum, so does the Saudi royal family. But who will emerge as next in line after Salman is even murkier. There are another half-dozen sons of the kingdom's founder, King Abdul Aziz, a.k.a. Ibn Saud, but no obvious contender. Prince Muqrin, the youngest son and the current intelligence chief, is one candidate, though his lack of good maternal pedigree (she was a Yemeni concubine) is probably a major handicap.
In the interim, it is easy to predict an increasingly open rivalry between the sons of Abdullah, Nayef, and Salman. The king's most prominent but not eldest son, Mitab, is the head of the national guard; a younger son, Abdul Aziz, is deputy minister of foreign affairs. Crown Prince Nayef's son Mohammed is the assistant minister of the interior, and well respected for his counterterrorism prowess. Salman's son, Abdul Aziz, is assistant minister of oil. The machinery of government, however, remains largely in the hands of long-serving functionaries. During an interregnum, they can be relied on to at least -- to choose an appropriate metaphor -- keep the oil tanker on course. At King Abdullah's side is Khalid al-Tuwaijri, the son of the late Abdul Aziz al-Tuwaijri, one of Abdullah's closest associates. Each day, Khalid -- dubbed the "uncrowned king" -- receives or discerns instructions from his monarch. Another such figure is Musaid al-Aiban, a minister of state with a Harvard doctorate who now looks after the Yemen portfolio and who accompanied Salman to London.The advanced age of Saudi Arabia's ruling elite virtually ensures that the kingdom will undergo a series of leadership changes in the coming years, throwing an already troubled region into further turmoil. With Syria burning, Yemen in chaos, and Iran possibly inflamed by sanctions and diplomatic pressures, foreign capitals view Saudi Arabia's immediate future with unsurprising nervousness.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.

Condemned U.S.-Lebanese Man Ruled Incompetent for Execution
Naharnet/16 June 2012
A Lebanese-born inmate is too mentally ill to be executed for the killings of his wife and brother-in-law, a U.S. judge ruled Friday in a decision that comes just a week after the governor issued a reprieve hours before the man was set to die. "Abdul Awkal presently lacks the capacity to form a rational understanding as to the reason the state intends to execute him," county Judge Stuart Friedman said. "Abdul Awkal may not be executed unless and until he has been restored to competency." The judge said it's up to the defense to seek a delay. Awkal asked the Ohio Supreme Court on Friday night to delay his scheduled execution Wednesday, and the court gave prosecutors until Monday morning to respond. County Prosecutor Bill Mason said he also would appeal the judge's decision.
"Awkal changed his story on the eve of execution and blamed the CIA for executing him, after admitting that he had lied to psychiatrists and has now successfully manipulated the court," Mason said in a statement. "Delays like this are what is wrong with the death penalty." A brother of the victims, Ali Abdul-Aziz, said the ruling means killers can avoid the death penalty by faking insanity. "Where is the justice," he asked in an email. "All the court has done is set a precedent for all criminals, telling them: All you must do is act insane, and then you will live." The ruling concluded several days of testimony from both sides who argued whether the 53-year-old Awkal was mentally ill when he killed his estranged wife, Latife Awkal, and brother-in-law, Mahmoud Abdul-Aziz, in a Cleveland courthouse in January 1992 as the couple prepared to take up divorce and custody issues. Kevin Cafferkey, Awkal's attorney, said whatever happens on the execution issue, Awkal would never leave prison. "Mr. Awkal was approximately 16 hours away from getting a lethal injection when Gov. Kasich issued a reprieve and certainly we're thrilled about that," Cafferkey said. Cafferkey said it is possible Awkal could be restored to mental competence to face execution.
"When he's on anti-psychotics (medication), he does get better. They do indicate that often times the delusions will either be tamped down or will go away. So it could be a case that he will be restored," he said. But, he said, Awkal gets severe side-effects from such medications, sometimes shaking from head to foot.Dr. Stephen Noffsinger, a psychiatrist for the state, testified during a hearing Wednesday that Awkal is mentally competent. "Mr. Awkal had a motive to distort information. Here's a man fighting for his life," Noffsinger said. Prosecutors said in the months before the shooting that Awkal bought a pistol and threatened to kill his wife and her family if they didn't dismiss the divorce proceedings. They also said Awkal changed his address and wrote his brother a check for most of his assets before he went to court on the day of the shooting.
But Awkal's attorneys had argued he is so mentally ill he believes he lives in a fantasy world where he is crucial to the country's Mideast war effort. Under cross-examination by the defense, Noffsinger agreed Awkal might suffer after-effects from growing up in Lebanon during the civil war. A death penalty opponent who has advised Awkal's attorneys also testified that Awkal feels remorse for the killings but opposed seeking clemency because he believed the CIA was pushing for his execution. The Ohio Parole Board voted 8-1 last month against recommending mercy, with most members concluding that Awkal had planned the shooting and that it wasn't the result of a psychotic breakdown. Kasich's decision last week for a reprieve just hours before Awkal was scheduled to die came shortly after the Ohio Supreme Court refused to delay the execution. Governors in Ohio have the ultimate say on executions. If put to death, Awkal would be the second man Ohio executes this year since the end of an unofficial moratorium on capital punishment that lasted six months. SourceAssociated Press.