Syria's sad state of affairs
Harel and Issacharoff take a look at how the intelligence community is sweating over the instability in Syria, concerned about the 'third force' of jihadists who may be able to obtain chemical weapons.
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel | Jun.17, 2012/Haaretz
http://www.haaretz.com/news/features/syria-s-sad-state-of-affairs.premium-1.436811
Soldiers in the Free Syrian Army, leading the internal opposition to President Bashar Assad. Russia is increasingly seen as their biggest enemy. Photo by AP Text size Comments (0) Print Page Send to friend Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share this story is byAvi Issacharoff Amos Harel As the crisis in Syria deepens, concerns over the potential repercussions for neighboring countries continue to grow.
The number one concern for Western intelligence organizations has to do with the tremendous stocks of chemical and biological weapons the Syrian defense establishment has accumulated during the Assad dynasty's reign. In part because it was burned in the past, Israel is focusing its attention on the channel of cooperation between Syria and Hezbollah. Western concern sees an immediate danger coming from extremist Sunni organizations that take their inspiration from Al-Qaida. Israeli intelligence tends to call these "international jihad" organizations. In the West they have recently labeled them with a new name, in the Syrian context: the third force.
These jihadist organizations, even though their common enemy is Syrian President Bashar Assad, operate independently of the leading Sunni opposition force. Their immediate aim is to commit acts of indiscriminate slaughter among the Alawite minority (members of the president's religious group ), but one of their secondary aims could well be to use the regime's stockpiles of chemical weapons - for example, in attacks on other countries.
Intelligence interest was ratcheted up a notch a few weeks ago after Ayman al- Zawahiri (Osama bin Laden's successor at Al-Qaida ) issued a public cry for his activists to initiate acts of "personal jihad" against the Alawites in Syria. In the past three decades, similar calls were issued in Afghanistan (twice - once against the Russians, later against the Americans ); Chechnya; Iraq; and during the Balkan wars.
The thought that a cell of this sort might carry out a pinpoint raid to secure materials like anthrax bacteria or VX gas is causing intelligence experts to lose sleep. In some cases, it isn't necessary to load the deadly substance onto a warhead and fire a missile (tasks that require a complex skill set ). In the wrong hands, even one barrel of such a substance is enough to cause significant damage. Insofar as is known, no reliable information has as yet been received about the theft of hazardous materials from the Syrian army's stores. However, NATO and the Americans are increasing their surveillance of these stores because of the concerns.
In Israel, they are also worried about the possibility of an orderly transfer - that Assad, under increasing pressure from both within and internationally, will intentionally choose to transfer chemical weapons, advanced antiaircraft missiles and long-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, in the spirit of what Iraqi President Saddam Hussein did when he transferred his warplanes to Iran on the eve of the first Gulf War.
In Israel, there are still those who are saying that Saddam also transferred the unconventional weapons he purportedly had in his possession to Bashar Assad on the eve of the second American attack on Iraq in 2003. In light of this suspicion, Israel maintains operational readiness in case there is a need for an aerial attack on weapons convoys between Syria and Lebanon.
Another scenario concerning Israel is not perceived, at this stage, as especially likely. This regards the flight of a large number of refugees from Syria into Israel, through the Golan Heights border (which Chief of Staff Benny Gantz hinted at when he appeared in the Knesset a few months ago ). There is a readiness plan in the Israel Defense Forces for such a scenario. However, the impression is that the refugees - at the moment it is thought they would be mostly Sunnis, but if things change they could be Alawites fleeing for their lives - would not choose Israel as their preferred place of refuge.
If there is indeed a potential for refugees arriving in Israel, it seems they would mostly be Druze, who have many relatives in the Golan Heights and the Galilee. Turkey and Jordan have more reasons to prepare for a mass absorption of refugees, from all the religious groups in Syria. In Jordan, for example, nearly 100,000 Syrians have already gathered in less than a year and a half. The Jordanians are refraining from declaring them refugees and the Syrians, most from the Sunni majority who have fled from the murderousness of Assad's forces, have entered the country on tourist visas.
The Russian role
This Tuesday, in remarks she delivered in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Russia of supplying combat helicopters to the Syrian regime. In so doing, charged Clinton, Russia could cause a "dramatic escalation" in the war raging in Syria. The White House subsequently backtracked from her statement, noting the helicopters had been out of the fight for six months and had been freshly refurbished. However, this is not the first supply of weapons in recent months. The military alliance between Moscow and Damascus is close and critical for the Russian arms industry, and presumably it will continue until Assad's fall.
It appears that the Russians, who at first took an official line refusing to intervene in the events in Syria, have now become a main and critical player in what is happening there. Moscow is giving diplomatic immunity to Syria with the aim of preventing any hostile resolution against Damascus at the United Nations Security Council. At the same time, it is ensuring that Assad's forces will be able to continue to batter the opposition by means of more weapons. This policy is eliciting extremely hostile reactions from opponents of Assad's regime in Syria and in the Arab world. The Facebook page of one of the Syrian opposition groups has stated: "Russia is the real enemy of the Syrian people." The background showed a picture of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, with his mouth dripping blood.
Alongside the active involvement of Iran and Hezbollah in aiding the regime, it appears that Russia and China are now witting partners to the daily slaughter throughout Syria. The acts of horror are only multiplying and the Syrian army is stopping at nothing. More and more pictures are coming in from Syria of attacks from the air, or artillery attacks on residential neighborhoods: in Rastan (a town with a strategic river crossing ), Homs, Latakia (the important port city ), Maarat al-Numaan, Idlib, Dara'a and a long list of other places. The weapons used in these atrocities are, for the most part, Russian. The NATO countries, and especially the United States, are refusing explicitly to arm the opposition. They have reasonable arguments: It is hard to know who will ultimately get their hands on weapons transferred to various armed militias, some of which have no command structure while others are committed to extremist Islamist elements. And yet, the West's helplessness in confronting Bashar is giving the Syrian president a free hand to continue what he is doing.
The bad news from the opponents' perspective isn't confined to the Russians' help for the president. The Syrian army is for the most part still loyal to Bashar and obeys his orders to bombard crowded civilian neighborhoods. The extent of defections from the ranks of the military is not yet critical.
The good news for the opposition is that Bashar does not currently have real control of the country, and extensive areas are gradually slipping from his grasp. The demonstrations have already spilled over into the major cities, Damascus and Aleppo, despite the regime's attempts to block the phenomenon. The key question of time remains open: Assad will apparently fall in the end. The question is how many more Syrian civilians will die, be wounded or lose their homes before that happens.
Sobriety ahead
A year and a half into what even Arab experts are hesitating to call the Arab Spring, the general picture in the Middle East is bleak. In Libya the elections have been postponed by a month, and the British ambassador there was targeted by a rocket-propelled grenade on Monday. He avoided injury but two of his bodyguards were seriously wounded.
Egypt is halfway through the second round of presidential elections, at the end of which the victor will win the dubious pleasure of dealing with an unprecedented economic and constitutional crisis in the country. The first reliable results are expected late tonight or tomorrow morning. In light of the ruckus surrounding the life sentence for former President Hosni Mubarak - as opposed to the death penalty - and the results of the parliamentary elections, it would seem a safe bet that the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohamed Morsi, will win (assuming the security forces don't risk an overly crude falsification of the election results ). However, if it is possible to learn anything from what has happened in Egypt during the past 18 months, it is that it is better not to bet.
A victory by Morsi will change the face of Egypt. An Islamist president and a parliament ruled by Islamic movements will lead to increased religious legislation. True, Israel's concern is not immediate and it is doubtful that even the Muslim Brotherhood would hasten to revoke the peace agreements with Israel. Apparently it is Egypt's secular citizens and the non-Muslim minority there who have greater cause for worry.
This week's violent demonstrations by Islamist elements in Tunisia - protesting about an art exhibition that showed a picture of a naked woman next to an illustration of the holy city of Mecca - give rise to thoughts about the future of the secular movement in that country. In Tunisia, it must be recalled, a moderate Islamist party won the parliamentary elections. A victory in Egypt by Morsi's rival, Ahmed Shafik - a man of the old regime - is expected to arouse a wave of demonstrations and rioting, and it is hard to know how that will end.
In any case, tomorrow morning Egypt will wake up, once and for all, from the intoxication of the revolution of January 25, 2011. The next president will be either an associate of Mubarak's, or the representative of a movement that was not a part of the protest at all when it began.
Once and future amateurism?
At a time when it is almost possible to feel the neighboring countries trembling all around us, the leadership here is bothered by a real difficulty stemming from immigration from Africa. The issue has been blown out of proportion by some of the media and Knesset members from the lunatic fringes on the right, as though the heart of the matter were the safety and virtue of the daughters of Israel.
If anything can be learned about the quality of decision making at the top in Israel from what the state comptroller revealed in his report about the Mavi Marmara flotilla affair, it would appear there is no special reason for optimism with regard to the immigrants.
The flotilla report, published Wednesday, reads in part like deja vu from the days of the Second Lebanon War. The takeover of the Marmara, indicates the report, reflected the government's flabby command of the army's operational conduct. The exchanges between Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor and the Chief of staff at the time, Gabi Ashkenazi, are stunning. (These were at the only septet security cabinet meeting that was devoted to the flotilla. ) Meridor put his finger on the fundamental question: the risk of creating a bottleneck that would leave the naval commando fighters at a numerical disadvantage during the boarding of the ship. "Will you have enough men?" he asked Ashkenazi, who replied easily: "Not at the beginning - gradually there will be."
The ministers made do with this, some out of excessive confidence in the army's ability, others out of a desire to leave the problem (and the responsibility ) in the hands of the general staff. In the end there were not enough commandos on board the Marmara in the initial phase. Those who descended from helicopters on ropes to the deck were attacked so violently that they had to kill nine Turkish activists and led to the exacerbation of the crisis with Turkey, which has not been resolved to this day.
Ashkenazi, of course, was immeasurably more experienced and knowledgeable about these things than his predecessor, Dan Halutz, as was Defense Minister Ehud Barak relative to his predecessor, Amir Peretz.
Yet still, it seems there is much in common between the two affairs. In the flotilla story, the government echelon was cut off from the operational experience, the top military brass was not sufficiently aware of the magnitude of the potential for a conflagration (Ashkenazi, atypically, was not even in the Pit - IDF command headquarters in Tel Aviv - when the operation began. Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant, a former commander of the naval special operation force, was kept out of the preparatory discussions of the operation ). Former Shin Bet security services chief Yuval Diskin has said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak are "messianic" in their attitude toward Iran. Along with this accusation, we should be worried about the possibility that the Israeli leadership will evince amateurism similar to that in the case of the Marmara with regard to Iran as well.

Lebanon must end rifts to withstand Syria turmoil
By Laila Bassam and Erika Solomon | Reuters
Share0Print......BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon risks being sucked into a worsening spiral of violence that has already begun to spill over from neighboring Syria unless its deeply divided leaders set aside their disputes, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said.
The situation was so tense that the tiny Arab Mediterranean country could not afford the luxury of internal disputes, including a row over disarming the Shi'ite movement Hezbollah, and needed to agree to set them aside for now, he added. "If, God forbid, something happened in Lebanon I do not think there would be anyone to help. There would be an absurd war among the Lebanese in which everyone would lose," Charbel told Reuters in an interview late on Friday.
"Conditions now do not allow for disputes."
Lebanon is still recovering from its bloody 1975-1990 civil war, but unrest in its larger and more powerful neighbor Syria has fuelled long-running tensions, sparking violent clashes on the streets of its northern port city of Tripoli and of its capital Beirut. The opposition March 14 grouping has called on Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government, a coalition which includes Charbel's mainly Christian Free Patriotic Movement and the Shi'ite Hezbollah group, to be replaced by a "salvation government."
It is also pressing for the disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanon's powerful Shi'ite militant and political group that fought a war against Israel in 2006. Hezbollah supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his crackdown on his opponents.Hezbollah was the only armed group to retain its weapons after the end of the civil war - its domestic rivals have always been uneasy about its arsenal, but it has proved too powerful within Lebanon to be forced to surrender it. It initially said it needed to keep its weapons to confront Israeli forces which maintained their occupation of southern Lebanon for 10 years after the civil war ended. It now says it needs to keep them to deter any future attack by Israel. "The argument over the government is a minor one and the argument over Hezbollah's arms is minor - any other disagreements are minor compared to what Lebanon would face because of what is happening in Syria," said Charbel.
GUNMEN
Ruling a country of just four million people, Lebanon's government has often been paralyzed by squabbling among its religiously and politically divided members, many of whom are in parties formed during the 15-year civil war. Political leaders have held a series of largely fruitless "national dialogue" meetings to try to overcome their differences, which have hampered efforts to tackle massive public debt and crippling electricity shortages. "I call on those sitting at the table of dialogue not to demand any preconditions. Our first priority is saving Lebanon from the calamity we have fallen into," Charbel said.
Charbel said the debate over Hezbollah's weapons had hindered efforts by security forces to clamp down on other armed groups and their weapons, fearing a political conflagration.
Hezbollah's Sunni Muslim political opponents have supported the Syrian uprising, and it is gunmen from their ranks that have clashed with Assad supporters, particularly in Tripoli.
"It would be very easy to carry out raids and clear out the gunmen (in Tripoli)," said Charbel. "But then other Lebanese groups will say there are other places with weapons. That would be an embarrassing subject because it would seem security forces were not applying the law everywhere."
However, Charbel said security forces were tightening up security at Lebanon's border with Syria, across which rebels have been smuggling weapons to the opposition.
"Weapons smuggling has dropped substantially because the Lebanese army has tightened its grip on legal crossings and that was where most of the smuggling happened," he said.
"But we should not forget that the border is 180 km (111 miles) long and the Lebanese army and security forces are not capable of covering all that."
Militants using Lebanon as a crossing point into Syria had increased in numbers, he added, but security forces were improving their technical capabilities at airports, seaports and borders in order to apprehend them.
(Writing by Erika Solomon; Editing by Dominic Evans and Andrew Osborn)

Generals guard Egypt power as Islamists claim lead
By Marwa Awad and Yasmine Saleh | Reuters – ..CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt's Islamists claimed a narrow lead on Monday in vote-counting for the presidential election but the generals who have run the country since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak issued new rules that made clear real power remains with the army. A decree from the ruling military council, published as the count got under way on Sunday, spelled out only limited powers for the new head of state and reclaimed for itself the lawmaking prerogatives held by the Islamist-led parliament which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) dissolved last week. Liberal and Islamist opponents denounced a "military coup". The Muslim Brotherhood, vowing to reject the moves, said that Mohamed Morsy, its candidate for the presidency, led former general Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last prime minister, by 51 to 49 percent, with votes in from a quarter of electoral districts. There was no official tally. Shafik aides were cautious, but one campaigner said Morsy did have a lead, though not a big one. A preliminary result could emerge a few hours into Monday. The council's "constitutional declaration", issued under powers it took for itself after pushing aside Mubarak to appease street protests 16 months ago, was a blow to democracy, said many who aired their grievances on social media, a favoured weapon in the Arab Spring that ended Mubarak's 30-year rule. "Grave setback for democracy and revolution," tweeted former U.N. diplomat and Nobel peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei. "SCAF retains legislative power, strips president of any authority over army and solidifies its control," he said. "The 'unconstitutional declaration' continues an outright military coup," tweeted Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, a moderate Islamist knocked out in the first round of the presidential election last month. "We have a duty to confront it." A Facebook page whose young activists helped launch the uprising mocked the army's order, noting Egypt would have a head of state with no control over his own armed forces: "It means the president is elected but has no power," one comment read.
DEADLINE
The order from Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, the chairman to the Supreme Council, indicated that the army, which also controls swathes of Egypt's economy, has no intention of handing substantial power now to its old adversary the Brotherhood.
"SCAF will carrying legislative responsibilities ... until a new parliament is elected," the council's order said.
It raised a question of how, even if a civilian head of state is sworn in this week, Tantawi can claim to have met his own deadline of July 1 for relinquishing control - a deadline the armed forces' major patron and paymaster the United States had stressed in recent days it was expecting him to respect.
Washington and Egypt's European allies, also major providers of aid to the most populous Arab state, had voiced concern when Tantawi, backed by a judicial ruling from a court appointed under Mubarak, dissolved the parliament elected in January in which the Brotherhood and hardline Islamists had a big majority.
However, the Western powers - and many of Egypt's 82 million people - are also uneasy about the rise of Islamists in Cairo, as in other new democracies of the Arab Spring, notably Tunisia and Libya, and so are unlikely to sanction the generals for now.
The failure of the new parliament to agree a consensus body to draft a constitution - liberals accuse the Islamists of packing the panel with religious zealots - has left Egyptians picking their way from revolution to democracy through a legal maze while the generals control the map and change it at will.
Under the latest order, writing of the new constitution may pass to a body appointed by the SCAF - if a court rules against the contested panel nominated by the now defunct legislature.
Any new constitution would need approval in a referendum, with a new parliamentary election following. By a timetable contained in the decree, it would take another five months or so to complete the planned "transition to democracy".
However, the experience of the past year has left many Egyptians doubting that the military, and what they call the "deep state" stretching across big business, Mubarak-era judges, security officials and the army, will ever hand over control.
"SCAF isn't going to transfer any real power," Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University said on Twitter of the constitutional order. "Back to the beginning."
AWKWARD CHOICES
Turnout, only 46 percent in the first round, appeared to have been no higher for the run-off held over two days.
Many voters were dismayed by an unpalatable choice between a man seen as an heir to Mubarak and the nominee of a religious party committed to reversing liberal social traditions.
Some cast a ballot against both men in protest.
"I'll cross out both Morsy and Shafik because neither deserve to be president," said Saleh Ashour, 40, a shopkeeper in the middle-class Cairo neighbourhood of Dokki as he went to vote. "I want to make a statement by crossing out the two names.
"Just staying away is too passive."
Shafik, 70, said he had heeded the lessons of the revolution and offered security and prosperity for all Egyptians. Morsy, 60, tried to widen his appeal beyond the Brotherhood's committed and disciplined base by pledging to preserve a pluralist democracy and finally end a history of military rule.
In the second city, Alexandria, computer engineer Sameh Youssef, 30, was wary of Islamist rule but wanted to honour the dead of an uprising launched by frustrated young urbanites: "I will vote Morsy," he said. "Not because I like him but because I hate Shafik. Between us and Shafik there is blood."
In Old Cairo, however, 56-year-old physician Khalil Nagih echoed the sentiments of many, including Christians like himself, whose mistrust of the Brotherhood and desire for an end to a year of chaos outweighed anxiety about the army's role:
"I chose Shafik because he has experience of administration and was an officer. He is a straight talker and he speaks to all communities. He says he'll solve our problems and I believe him. Morsy will bring a religious state and take Egypt backwards."
The Brotherhood has contested the army's power to dissolve parliament and warned of "dangerous days". But though some have compared events to those in Algeria 20 years, which ended in civil war between the military and Islamists, many doubt that the Brotherhood has an appetite for such violence at present.
Monitors said they had seen only minor and scattered breaches of election rules but not the kind of systematic fraud that tainted elections under Mubarak, despite mutual accusations of irregularities by the rival camps.
A win for Shafik may prompt street protests by the Islamists and some of the disillusioned urban youths who made Cairo's Tahrir Square their battleground last year. Should Morsy prevail, he is set to be frustrated by an uncooperative army.
(Additional reporting by Dina Zayed, Tom Pfeiffer, Edmund Blair, Alastair Macdonald and Samia Nakhoul in Cairo and Abdel Rahman Youssef in Alexandria; Writing by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)

First time: U.N. puts Canada on human rights watchlist
over Quebec demo law
Contact: media1@unwatch.org
Tel: +41 22 734 1472
GENEVA, June 17 – Canada will be put in the company of some of the world’s worst abusers of human rights tomorrow when the UN’s highest human rights official expresses “alarm” over Quebec’s new law on demonstrations during her opening address to a meeting of the 47-nation UN Human Rights Council, revealed the Geneva-based monitoring group UN Watch, which obtained an advance copy of her speech. Other states on the UN watchlist include Syria, Pakistan and Zimbabwe.
“Moves to restrict freedom of assembly continue to alarm me, as is the case in the province of Quebec in Canada in the context of students’ protests,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay will say tomorrow, according to her draft speech.
The rights czar reserves her sharpest language for Canada. While Pillay cites only two other countries in the world for restrictions on freedom of assembly—expressing “concern” about Russia, and “deep concern” for Eritrea—only Canada provokes her far stronger “alarm.”
Some human right experts noted that Pillay's description to the council omitted mention of the mass disruptions and violence in some of the protests, and questioned her judgment in turning an unprecedented spotlight on a country generally considered one of the world’s most free and democratic.
“While Canada is certainly fair game for criticism,” said Hillel Neuer, the Montreal-born lawyer who directs UN Watch, “for Pillay to divert the world’s attention to what in a global context is an absolutely marginal case—a law already before the chief justice of the Quebec Superior Court, and which appears far less demanding than the Swiss laws regulating the human rights rallies we hold in front of her own building—is simply absurd.”
“Indeed a veteran Tibet activist expressed shock today that the UN commissioner’s speech, ostensibly about situations requiring the world’s attention, spends time on Canada while saying nothing about China, a dictatorship that systematically represses and brutalizes Buddhist monks and millions more,” said Neuer. “When a prosecutor goes after jaywalkers while allowing rapists and murderers to roam free, that’s not only illogical, but immoral.”
“She just needs to keep things in proportion. Quebec’s Bill 78 was adopted by an elected democracy and will now be scrutinized by a series of independent courts applying the world’s finest machinery for reviewing legislation according to constitutional human rights guarantees—the Charter process that's already underway.”
“Meanwhile, most of the world’s worst abuses—like those Pillay fails to cite in the police states of Belarus and Cuba, and in the misogynistic regimes of Iran and Saudi Arabia—are devoid of any scrutiny. Those are the ones that desperately require the UN’s attention.”
"The Canadian activists who presumably put her up to this are misguided, and the UN commissioner is making a big mistake by sending the message that countries that have blots on their system—if indeed the Quebec law is a blot—are even worse than countries where the blot is the system.”

Six major powers to maintain tough stance on Iran, Israeli source says
Negotiations will begin at 11 A.M. Monday and continue until Tuesday night.
By Barak Ravid | Jun.18, 2012 | 1:10 AM /Haaretz
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Said Jalili (R) shakes hands with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (L) during a meeting in Tehran on June 13, 2012. Photo by AFP Text size Comments (0) Print Page Send to friend Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share this story is byBarak Ravid related tagsIran Russia Iran nuclear US Europe related articlesLatest updates in run-up to Iran nuclear talks in Moscow By Barak Ravid | Jun.18,2012 | 1:10 AM | 3 The six powers holding nuclear talks with Iran have no intention of softening their position presented in Baghdad last month, even if this approach scuppers the negotiations, a senior Israeli official said. The negotiating teams of Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - arrived in Moscow on Sunday for the third round of talks. The negotiations will begin at 11 A.M. Monday and continue until Tuesday night. After the current round, representatives of the powers are expected to fly to Israel and update its leaders.
According to the senior official, Israel was told in recent days that the powers will demand an answer to their Baghdad offer. This includes a demand that Iran stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, the removal from Iran of uranium enriched beyond 20 percent, and the suspension of operations at the underground facility at Fordo, near Qom.
In exchange, the powers propose supplying nuclear fuel for Iran's research sites, assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program, and parts for Iran's civilian aircraft.
The powers have no intention to agree to Iran's demand to postpone the European Union's oil embargo, due to begin on July 1, or the U.S. sanctions on the Iranian central bank, due to begin on June 28.
"The United States and some of the other powers have clarified that they do not intend to budge from the proposition presented in Baghdad," the senior Israeli official said. "They told us that they do not intend to hold talks just for the sake of talks, and that they don't fear that the talks will break down, because sometimes to make progress you need a crisis first."
The Iranians, too, are taking a tough stance in the run-up to the Moscow talks; both sides seek to prove that they are not too eager to strike a deal.
Western diplomats have told The Associated Press that the Moscow talks are crucial. They say this round will probably be the last in a series and that if the negotiators fail to make progress persuading Tehran to stop higher-grade uranium enrichment, it's unclear if or when new talks would happen. "It's unclear when or if there will be a fourth round of talks," a diplomat said. Iranian news agency Mehr reported that "the Iranian negotiating team does not seem optimistic about the result of nuclear talks with the major powers ... The quality of the interaction of the Western countries' representatives in the nuclear talks with Iran coupled with the atmosphere prevalent in the Baghdad talks, a reluctance for preparatory and expert talks before the Moscow meeting, and no authorization to present effective proposals have almost eroded chances for a breakthrough in the talks." Saeed Jalili, the head of the Iranian team, said on his arrival in Moscow that Iran expected the six powers to recognize Iran's right to enrich uranium on its own soil. The powers refused this demand in the two previous rounds of talks. Meanwhile, Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon said on Sunday that even if Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked by another power, not Israel, Iran would launch rockets at Israel in retaliation. "Iran has 400 rockets that can reach us and will launch some of them," Ya'alon said at a conference at Bar-Ilan University. "Hezbollah, too, will use thousands of rockets against us in such a case."

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef Buried in Mecca, Salman Likely to be New Heir
Naharnet /17 June 2012,
Saudi Arabia on Sunday buried crown prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz during a somber ceremony in Islam's holiest city, as defense minister Prince Salman appeared poised to become the new heir apparent.
The 79-year-old Nayef died on Saturday of "cardiac problems" at his brother's residence in Geneva, a medical source in the Swiss city said.
The ceremony was held late afternoon at the Grand Mosque in Mecca, in western Saudi Arabia, and attended by a grieving King Abdullah, members of the royal family and a number of heads of states from Islamic countries.
Prince Nayef's body, which arrived earlier in the day in the city of Jeddah on board a Saudi aircraft from Geneva before being driven to Mecca, was wrapped in an ochre-colored shroud during the ceremony and later buried in a cemetery next to the Grand Mosque.
Tributes for Nayef, Saudi's long-serving interior minister, poured in from around the world.
"Crown Prince Nayef devoted his life to promoting the security of Saudi Arabia," said UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, while US President Barack Obama praised his cooperation in the fight against terror that "saved countless American and Saudi lives."
French President Francois Hollande said his country had lost a "friend" and the president of the Swiss Confederation, where Nayef died, offered Bern's "deepest condolences."
Nayef's death, just eight months after he replaced his late brother Sultan as crown prince, raises the issue of succession because of the advanced age of the first line of apparent heirs, in a time of turmoil rocking the Arab world.
King Abdullah himself is 88 and ailing, and nobody is officially in line to replace Nayef.
His brother Prince Salman, 76, who took the defense portfolio after Sultan's death, appears to be a strong candidate.
"Prince Salman is the most likely successor," Saudi political scientist Khaled al-Dakheel said.
"All expectations point to Prince Salman to succeed Prince Nayef for his experience in administration, security and politics," agreed Anwar Eshqi, head of the Jeddah-based Middle East Centre for Strategic Studies.And Jane Kinninmont, a senior research fellow for the Middle East and North Africa at London's Chatham House, said Salman is "generally assumed to be the next in line."
In 2006 the Saudi monarch established the allegiance council, a body of around 35 senior princes, as a new succession mechanism whose long-term aim was to choose the crown prince.
But the new commission had not been activated when Nayef was chosen as crown prince, according to Dakheel, who argued that naming his successor is a chance to bring the new body into play.
The royal decree that established the council postponed its use until after Abdullah's death.
"This is a chance to activate the allegiance council system... which provides a legal foundation for a peaceful power transfer within the family and leaves no room for surprises. This is important for state stability," Dakheel said.
Kinninmont argued that choosing the second in line to the throne, which is "likely to be signified informally by the title of second deputy prime minister, is more challenging."
King Abdullah did not name a second deputy after Nayef was promoted to first deputy after Sultan's death.
Nayef was the middle prince of the Sudairi Seven, the formidable bloc of sons of King Abdul Aziz by a favorite wife, Princess Hassa al-Sudairi.
In addition to Salman, remaining Sudairis include Prince Abdul Rahman, Prince Turki and Prince Ahmed, deputy interior minister and likely to succeed Nayef as the oil powerhouse's security chief.
Nayef, who spearheaded Saudi Arabia's clampdown on Al-Qaeda following a wave of attacks in the conservative kingdom between 2003 and 2006, became heir last October.
He forced the jihadist group's leaders and militants to flee to Yemen, from where they continue to be a thorn in the side of Saudi interests.
"He was one of the pillars of stability in the kingdom," wrote Al-Jazirah daily. "He managed to overcome crises and navigate this country to the shores of safety."
Prince Nayef travelled abroad several times this year for medical reasons, and was shown on television in Geneva three days ago greeting supporters.
The nature of his illness was not made public.
Seen as more conservative than King Abdullah, Prince Nayef was a staunch defender of the Saudi dynasty and resisted any opposition, especially from the Shiite minority in the eastern province.
He also strongly opposed allowing women to drive. A planned protest on Sunday by the Women2Drive group was postponed until Friday following Nayef's death.
Source/Agence France Presse.

Socialists Take French Parliament with Sweeping Win
Naharnet/17 June 2012/France's Socialists won control of parliament in a run-off vote Sunday, handing President Francois Hollande the convincing majority needed to push through a tough tax-and-spend agenda, estimates said. The Socialists' bloc obtained between 312 and 326 seats -- an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly -- and so will not need to rely on the Greens or the far left, polling institutes Sofres and CSA said. Hollande, who defeated right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy in a May presidential election, had urged voters to give him the MPs he needs to steer France through the eurozone crisis, rising unemployment and a faltering economy. Sarkozy's UMP was slated to win between 212 and 234 seats, the Greens between 18 and 24 seats and the far-left Left Front between nine and 11, the polling institutes said. Marine Le Pen's anti-immigrant and anti-EU National Front (FN), which scored well in the first round, was set to take between one and four seats, returning an MP to parliament for the first time since 1998. With the French voting for the fourth time in eight weeks after electing their first Socialist president in 17 years, turnout was a record low for a second-round parliamentary vote at 56 percent. Already in control of the Senate and nearly all regional governments, the parliamentary majority gives the Socialists a free hand to implement reforms despite the right urging voters to check the left's power in the vote. Hollande now heads to Mexico for G20 talks on Monday flush with the vote's success and brandishing a further mandate to push for growth measures to battle the eurozone's debt crisis rather than focus on austerity. He has also floated a proposal for a 120 billion euro "growth pact" to be discussed at a series of high-level meetings ahead of a European Union summit on June 28-29 in Brussels. Voters in a working-class area of northeastern Paris said they were backing the Socialists so Hollande could push forward with reforms. "I voted for the Socialist Party. It has been a long time since they were in power and they must be supported now," said William Lameth, a 39-year-old waiter.
"We need reforms in this country and with a majority Hollande will be able to do what needs to be done," he said. Le Pen, who has claimed her success in the first-round parliamentary vote made her party France's "third political force" is herself standing in a former mining constituency near the northern city of Lille. Her niece, 22-year-old Marion Marechal-Le Pen, is hoping to win a seat in the southern Vaucluse region. Polling stations were to close in the main cities across France at 8:00 pm (1800 GMT), when initial results are expected.
Casting his ballot in the northwestern city of Nantes, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault urged voters to give Hollande a "clear, coherent and strong majority".
"We will have to make choices that will sometimes be difficult... so we must be strong," said Ayrault, who was among 36 candidates not facing a run-off after taking more than half the votes in the first round.
UMP leader Jean-Francois Cope, favored to keep his seat in the Seine-et-Marne area outside Paris, said the right was prepared for any result.
"We are calm, we did everything we could during the campaign," Cope said after voting. After a hard-fought presidential race, the campaign for the parliamentary elections was lackluster, with the only major excitement generated by an incendiary tweet fired off by the country's new unofficial first lady. The Twitter message by Hollande's companion Valerie Trierweiler wished good luck to Socialist dissident Olivier Falorni, who ran against Segolene Royal -- the president's ex-partner and mother of their four children -- in the western town of La Rochelle.
Royal said she had lost the vote, describing it as a "political betrayal".
Source/Agence France Presse.

Karam Announces Electoral Campaign: No Weapons Can Rise above those of Army
Naharnet/17 June 2012/The Lebanese Forces’ candidate for al-Koura by-elections Fadi Karam announced on Sunday his electoral program, which emphasized the importance of the freedom and sovereignty of the state. He said during a press conference: “Along with my colleagues in the LF, I believe in the rise of a democratic nation ... and an army who weapons cannot be overshadowed by any other.” “We believe in an army that exists under the authority of the state and which derives its power from the people,” he continued. “We believe in a Koura region that harbors all sects and caters to its youths in order for them to live in prosperity,” he continued. By-elections to replace late MP Farid Habib will be held on July 15. Lebanese Forces bloc MP Farid Habib, representative of the northern Koura district, passed away on May 31 after a battle with illness. He was elected in 2005 for one of the Greek Orthodox seats of the second electorate in the North. He was reelected in 2009 as a representative of the Koura district.

Syrians in Lebanon under threat
Nadine Elali, June 17, 2012 /Now Lebanon
Syrian migrant workers stand waiting on the street for work. Many Syrians have left Lebanon due to threats since Lebanese were kidnapped in Syria last month. (AFP photo)
Hassan is a Syrian living in Dahiyeh who runs a retail shop. Ever since the kidnapping of a busload of Lebanese pilgrims in Syria on May 22, Hassan says he is being threatened and intimidated into paying extortion money to men he described as “the thugs of Dahiyeh” in retribution for the pilgrims’ disappearance in his home country.
“These thugs would stand in front of our shops, fire in the air, scream and call us dogs, and then force us to close down our stores,” Hassan said. “We have no choice other than to abide. What else can we do?”
Many Syrians living in Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon say they have been subjected to threats and intimidation following the pilgrims’ abduction, and while many of these incidents go unreported, they have prompted some Syrian workers to leave the area they live in or leave the country altogether.
On the same day of the kidnapping, over 100 Syrian workers who lived in Hezbollah areas in Lebanon were beaten up, according to Ahmad, a Syrian who refused to disclose his real name for fear of being attacked.
“My friend told me they would call out, ‘There’s a Syrian!’ and they would then follow them and beat them up. Some fled after being beaten, and others were beaten so badly that they were carried to the Rasoul al-Aazam Hospital, where they were put under Hezbollah surveillance so that news would not spread.”
Abu Mohammad, who also preferred not to go by his real name, said that he was attacked in his own shop and was being followed by two Lebanese men. He spoke to NOW over the phone for fear of being followed to the interview.
“A woman came into my shop, asking me to prepare a proper dish for her, not like the one I prepare for us Syrians. After I declined, saying that I make only one dish, she called in two men who beat me up and trashed my shop. Then suddenly there were 10 of them. My brother came in to help me, but they stabbed him. Ever since then, I have two men watching me,” Abu Mohammad said.
His brother returned to Syria as a result and says he feels safer in opposition-controlled areas of the country than here in Lebanon.
According to Lebanese analyst and commentator Ali al-Amine, some of the attacks on Syrians were a reaction to the abduction of the pilgrims, but others were organized by Hezbollah, which used the kidnapping as a pretext to get Syrians out of party strongholds.
Amine says that over 800 Syrian workers were kicked out of villages in South Lebanon. Near the Lebanese University in Hadath, he said, store owners were asked to leave and were attacked and fired upon by Hezbollah members, who accused them of storing arms for the Syrian opposition.
According to a report released last week by LBC television, 7,000 Syrian workers left Lebanon since May.
An opposition Syrian National Council member who is based in Lebanon and also preferred to remain anonymous said that he had no data to support LBC’s report but that he was aware that many Syrians were subjected to attacks on a daily basis. “They are afraid,” he said, “and that is why they are not coming forward with their complaints, and so incidents like these are going largely unnoticed.”
The SNC member added that the Lebanese government has failed to provide any form of protection for the Syrians, whether workers, refugees or anti-regime activists.
“We Syrian activists came to Lebanon to flee the violence in Syria, and we’re currently being threatened and are under attack, especially following the kidnapping incident. I myself have received a call from an Internal Security Forces officer prompting me and other Syrian activists to leave West Beirut and to move to Achrafieh out of fear of what’s to come,” he said.
“I believe that Hezbollah’s calculations are changing,” Amine said. “They are worried that the crisis might spill into Lebanon and that an Sunni-Shia conflict might break out, and thus they are taking their precautions by lessening the Syrian presence in their stronghold out of fear that they may be used for such purposes. There are over 200,000 Syrians living in areas like South Lebanon, Baalbek and Dahiyeh, and that is a considerable number.”

Charbel: Defense strategy can’t be made at dialogue table
June 17, 2012/Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said in remarks published on Sunday that Lebanon’s defense strategy, which aims at tackling the issue of non-state arms, could not be discussed within the framework of national dialogue. “The defense strategy cannot be discussed at the dialogue table but rather between specialists and in secret,” Charbel told Ad-Diyar newspaper.
“We should not be imposing conditions on dialogue, since circumstances impose only one condition, which revolves around finding a way to preserve Lebanon,” he added.
Lebanon's rival political leaders agreed on Monday to a series of points emphasizing stability and coexistence in Lebanon amid the violence rocking neighboring Syria after a meeting of the national dialogue committee, chaired by President Michel Sleiman, at the Baabda Presidential Palace after an 18 months suspension. -NOW Lebanon