LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 24/12

Bible Quotation for today/You are the salt of the earth,
Metthew 5/11-20: “Blessed are you when people reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for my sake.  Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you.  “You are the salt of the earth, but if the salt has lost its flavor, with what will it be salted? It is then good for nothing, but to be cast out and trodden under the feet of men.  You are the light of the world. A city located on a hill can’t be hidden.  Neither do you light a lamp, and put it under a measuring basket, but on a stand; and it shines to all who are in the house. Even so, let your light shine before men; that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father who is in heaven. “Don’t think that I came to destroy the law or the prophets. I didn’t come to destroy, but to fulfill. For most certainly, I tell you, until heaven and earth pass away, not even one smallest letter or one tiny pen stroke shall in any way pass away from the law, until all things are accomplished. Whoever, therefore, shall break one of these least commandments, and teach others to do so, shall be called least in the Kingdom of Heaven; but whoever shall do and teach them shall be called great in the Kingdom of Heaven.  For I tell you that unless your righteousness exceeds that of the scribes and Pharisees, there is no way you will enter into the Kingdom of Heaven.


Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Putin's Trip to Israel Could Challenge Washington/By: Simon Henderson /Washington Institute/ June 23/12
Annan gambles Syria’s future on Putin/By: Jim Hoagland/The Washington Post/June 23/12

Syria: The crisis has entered the skies/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 23/12
The first liberated warplane in Syria/By Mshari al-Zaydi/Asharq Alawsat/June 23/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 23/12
March 14 May Boycott National Dialogue if Arms Possession Not Tackled during Monday’s Session
March 14 meeting with Rai opens new page in relations with Bkirki
Geagea Won’t Hesitate to Run for Presidency: Serious Govt. Work Substitute for Dialogue
Geagea says would run for president if asked to
European ministers back Beirut’s direction
Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 23, 2012 June/The Daily Star
Weekly Campaign to Expel Syrian Ambassador Launched in Tripoli
The view from Tripoli’s restive Jabal Mohsen
Lebanon sheikh warns of toy gun that allegedly insults prophet's wife
Aoun says Cabinet group paralyzing work of government
North Lebanon watermelon street vendors protest fines
Syrian man found shot dead in north Lebanon apartment
SSNP names candidate for north Lebanon district by-elections
Hizbullah, AMAL Stress Importance of Safeguarding Stability in Lebanon
Moussawi Slams Calls for Change, Urges it to be Productive
Syrian Shot to Death in Northern Lebanon

Egypt to announce election results Sunday
Egypt liberals: US backs Islamists
Tehran Says IDs of Iranians Arrested in Kenya Not Known
Probe indicates Imam Sadr never left Libya to Italy: Abdul-Jalil
After Moscow nuclear talks, Netanyahu has even less faith world will stop Iran
Iran must participate in Syria Talks: Russia
Newly-supplied Russian Buk-M2 anti-air missile used to down Turkish warplane
New government for Syria as fighting ragesBy the CNN Wire Staff
Syria’s quagmire grows deeper
Turkey weighs response after Syria downs Turkish jet
 

March 14 meeting with Rai opens new page in relations with Bkirki
June 23, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: An icebreaking meeting between a delegation of March 14 Christian politicians and Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai in Bkirki Friday opened a new page in relations between the two sides that were strained over Rai’s political stances on local and regional issues.Former President Amin Gemayel, leader of the Kataeb Party, described the meeting with Rai as “very cordial,” saying it paved the way for a constructive dialogue that would eventually lead to serving the interests of the politically divided Maronite community. Bsharri MP Strida Geagea, of the Lebanese Forces, hailed the meeting as “historic.”
“The meeting was serious and very cordial. We hope that it will set for a new stage in which all of us can meet and unite on principles that can protect Lebanon,” Gemayel told reporters after emerging from the meeting before its conclusion. “Today’s meeting has opened the door for a constructive and cordial dialogue that will lead to the desired results.”
He said the meeting, which followed months of tension between the two sides over the patriarch’s controversial political stances on the turmoil in Syria and Hezbollah’s arms, was “important and constructive in the interests of the country and Lebanese peace and internal stability.” Describing the rift between the March 14 parties and Bkirki as “a passing summer cloud,” Gemayel said: “We should all be in agreement on the means to pull the country out of its present quagmire. We spoke about Hezbollah’s arms, as well as what is needed for national unity and sovereignty. As we know, national unity is threatened by the presence of Hezbollah’s arms.” He added that the 16-month-old uprising in Syria and its repercussions on Lebanon were also discussed.
“What we heard today [Friday] has reassured us. The patriarch affirmed his stance, which is [based on] partnership and love. We’re back to the correct path and communications. The summer cloud has vanished,” Gemayel said.
He added that the March 14 delegation discussed with Rai “a set of concerns, including our approach to the issue of the government, which does not exist.”
Rai and Christian leaders have repeatedly raised the issue of appointments of Christians in the public administration where hundreds of key posts are vacant and waiting to be filled by the government.
In addition to Gemayel and Geagea, the March 14 delegation included Batroun MP Butros Harb, Chouf MP Dory Chamoun, head of the National Liberal Party, and former lawmakers Nayla Mouawad, Camille Ziadeh and Fares Soueid. The one-hour meeting was also attended by Rai’s aides, Maronite bishops Samir Mazloum and Boulos Sayegh.
Besides the divisive issue of Hezbollah’s arms, the talks also covered the country’s political and economic crisis, the patriarch’s political stances that sparked a controversy within the Christian community, and proposals for an election law, a March 14 source told The Daily Star.
“The meeting was a breakthrough in ties between Bkirki and March 14 leaders. The two sides have agreed to continue meetings,” the source said.
Relations between Rai and March 14 leaders had soured since the patriarch made controversial statements on the popular uprisings sweeping the Arab world and defended Hezbollah’s arms.
In an interview with Reuters, Rai warned earlier this year that violence and bloodshed were turning the Arab Spring into a winter, and that the violence was threatening Christians and Muslims alike across the Middle East. In response to Rai, LF leader Samir Geagea said he opposed any patriarch that defends the Syrian regime.
Previous statements by Rai on Syria have also stirred controversy. During an official visit to France last year, Rai said Syrian President Bashar Assad should have been given a chance to carry out reform in Syria and voiced concern over the fate of Christians in the region should a civil war break out between Alawites and Sunnis.
Although Geagea did not attend the meeting, his wife Strida did. She praised the meeting as “historic” and welcomed the patriarch’s receptiveness to the March 14 members’ points of view.
“It was a historic meeting. I was very surprised at how open [Rai] was and how he respected everyone’s views,” she told reporters.
In an implicit call on the patriarch to avoid taking sides on local and regional issues, Geagea said the March 14 delegation frankly told Rai that Bkirki, because of its national standing, should remain distant from “all conflicts and disputes in this critical political phase through which the Middle East region, namely Lebanon, is passing.”
Geagea said the delegation will prepare a memorandum detailing the stances of March 14 Christians on developments in the region and Lebanon and that the document would be presented to Rai. She added that the delegation would hold another “heart-to-heart” meeting with the patriarch.
For his part, Harb said the meeting eliminated “confusion and misunderstanding” between Bkirki and March 14 Christians.
“Today’s meeting is the beginning of a new stage in relations between us and his Beatitude and Bkirki. I think that it is abnormal for relations to remain as they were. It’s our duty to try to bring matters back to their normal course,” Harb told reporters after the meeting. He said the talks were was dominated by “frankness, objectivity, love and understanding.
“The meeting constitutes the first step on a long road of cooperation which we hope will be filled with roses and joint cooperation and work for the benefit of Lebanon and the Christians in Lebanon,” Harb added. Harb said that following clarifications by the patriarch, some statements attributed to him were incorrect.
“Following our discussion with the patriarch, it turned out that we are in agreement on principles,” he said. He added that the March 14 delegation would remain in contact with Rai in the interests of Lebanon.
Soueid, the coordinator of the March 14 Secretariat-General, said that Lebanon was experiencing “a very delicate situation” as a result of the fast-moving developments in Syria and the Arab world.
Denying that there was any personal dispute with Rai, Soueid told reporters after the meeting: “We have our own view on the ongoing events. The main reason for coming [to Bkirki] today [Friday] is that this region and this country are passing through an extremely difficult and complicated stage which might have definite repercussions on Lebanon.
“It’s not an issue of elections, or March 14 and 8,” he added.

Geagea says would run for president if asked to

June 23, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said in remarks published Saturday he would run for president if asked to and voiced support for an electoral law based on smaller size districts or proportional representation. “I don’t plan on running or reaching the presidential seat but if I was asked to and the circumstances were right, I would not hesitate,” Geagea told As-Safir newspaper.
In the wide-ranging interview, Geagea also spoke about the Maronite committee, currently studying a new a new electoral law, and said the participants agreed on adopting smaller districts for a fairer and equal representation in the country.
He also said that if smaller districts were not adopted, his party would vote for a law based on proportional representation – a law that his allies in the Future Movement have rejected.
“Don’t underestimate negotiations between us [Lebanese Forces and Future Movement]. We have reached an important level of negotiations and they understand our proposal,” Geagea said.
As for Geagea’s absence from the National Dialogue sessions, which resumed two weeks ago under the auspices of President Michel Sleiman, the LF leader said: “Syria and Hezbollah are the main parties on the national dialogue table and they are not serious about reaching anything.”
He reiterated his opposition to the relaunch of National Dialogue and said it would not produce anything tangible, particularly with regard to the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons.
Geagea also voiced skepticism over Hezbollah’s readiness to discuss a solution to the issue of its weapons.
The LF head said he would support smaller-level talks, with some five political leaders taking part who would “seriously search for solutions and not a table that gathers 20 people with an agenda that was set seven years ago and we couldn’t even agree on one thing.” Geagea also said he could understand the reasons behind Hezbollah’s arsenal in the 1980s when Israel occupied south Lebanon but said after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000 “the state was ready to fill in the gap of the previous stage.”“Not only was the south abandoned but all of Lebanon,” he said.
“Eventually, we have to rely on the state or each region or area would be comfortable under the umbrella of its corresponding party,” he said.
As for the crisis in Syria, Geagea expressed confidence that President Bashar Assad would eventual depart and said whatever the outcome of the Syrian crisis, Lebanon would feel the repercussions.
“We will go through a difficult phase. But if Bashar Assad falls, then the possibility of a civil war in Syria will fall as well, knowing that Syria today is going through a civil war,” he said.

March 14 May Boycott National Dialogue if Arms Possession Not Tackled during Monday’s Session
Naharnet/23 June 2012/The national dialogue is set to resume on Monday with the defense strategy being the main topic of discussion, reported al-Liwaa newspaper on Saturday.
Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc circles told As Safir newspaper on Saturday that the bloc is seeking to only discuss at the all-party talks the possession of arms outside the authority of the state. There can be no point for the dialogue if this issue is not address, they added. Sources from the March 14 General Secretariat added that it does not rule out the possibility of boycotting future national dialogue sessions should the political factions fail to tackle this issue on Monday, reported As Safir.
The head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Mohammed Raad told the newspaper: “We are positively approaching the talks in order to tackle issues of contention and implement past agreements.”
“The situation in Lebanon may impose itself at the talks given the tensions in some areas,” he added.
“Discussing priorities should not contradict with our complete openness to tackle the defense strategy,” he continued. “We hope that the other camp would positively approach the talks in order to enable us to reach agreements that serve the country,” said the Hizbullah MP. President Michel Suleiman has completed his consultations with various political powers in preparation for the national dialogue, which will be held at the Baabda Palace. The talks on the defense strategy include discussions on the resistance’s arms, those of Palestinians inside and outside refugee camps, and possession of arms among the Lebanese. An agreement on Palestinian arms was reached during the March 2006 dialogue session, but it has not been implemented.
Sources told Al-Liwaa that “it does not matter which issue is addressed first seeing as the security chaos on the ground will likely impose itself as the main topic of discussion.”The head of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea will again boycott Monday’s session as he had labeled the talks as a “distraction.” Meanwhile, the head of the Phalange Party Amin Gemayel hosted on Friday a luncheon banquet that included the head of the Mustaqbal bloc MP Fouad Saniora, deputy Speaker Farid Makari, MPs Butros Harb, Georges Adwan, Dory Shamoun, Michel Pharaon, Samir Gemayel, and the head of the National Bloc Carlos Edde, with the talks focusing on the national dialogue, reported the daily An Nahar on Saturday. Sources from the talks told the daily that the gatherers expect the dialogue to strictly address the possession of arms in Lebanon from now. They agreed that Hizbullah’s arms “serve Iran and they should therefore be confronted,” warning that the party will get involved in a possible war between the Islamic Republic and Israel.They stressed the importance of implementing the agreements of the previous dialogue sessions, emphasizing the need for the formation of a national salvation government that could protect Lebanon given the tensions in the country and the region, reported An Nahar.

Geagea Won’t Hesitate to Run for Presidency: Serious Govt. Work Substitute for Dialogue
Naharnet/23 June 2012/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea renewed his rejection of the national dialogue sessions, saying that he is seeking serious talks, while the current discussions are bound to fail, reported As Safir newspaper on Saturday. He told the newspaper: “Serious and immediate government action is the substitute for the dialogue.”“We would be the first to support the government should it agree to revitalize its work,” he remarked. He explained that Syria and Hizbullah are the main participants at the all-party talks “and they are not serious in reaching any agreement.” “They simply agreed to resume the talks because of the poor situation on the ground,” said Geagea. “Our current problems require government decisions and not futile discussions,” he continued. The government needs to address the issues of the state budget, administrative appointments, the unrest in Tripoli, demarcation of the border, and resolve economic and energy issues, stated the LF chief. “These matters have nothing to do with the dialogue,” he stressed. “Hizbullah’s arms are the only thing that can be tackled at the talks,” he noted. “Dialogue cannot replace constitutional institutions,” remarked Geagea.He added however that he does not oppose holding dialogue away from the media spotlight that would include the Lebanese Forces, Hizbullah, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, the Mustaqbal Movement, and the Progressive Socialist Party. These talks could replace the current dialogue that includes no less than 20 leaders, who are tackling an agenda that was placed seven years ago, he said.“There are much more pressing issues that need to be tackled than Hizbullah’s weapons. No one can lead me to believe that this issue can be resolved at the time being,” he declared. “The party is not ready to discuss its arms,” he noted. The national dialogue resumed on June 11 after a 19-month absence. Geagea boycotted the talks, deeming them a “distraction.” The all-party talks are set to resume on Monday. On the 2014 presidential election, Geagea said: “I do not plan on running for the elections, but I wouldn’t hesitate if I was asked and if the circumstances were appropriate.”Addressing the Syrian crisis, the LF chief said that the toppling of its regime will positively affect Lebanon. “The demise of the regime is out of the question,” he added. “The sooner its collapses the better for Lebanon and Syria,” he continued.

Weekly Campaign to Expel Syrian Ambassador Launched in Tripoli

Naharnet/23 June 2012/A demonstration was held on Friday by a number of Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in the northern city of Tripoli in support of the Syrian revolution, reported the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Saturday.It added that they launched a weekly campaign to expel the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali in protest against “the massacres being committed in Syria.”Sheikh Ahmed al-Sifyani, who spoke at the rally, demanded the expulsion of the “criminal ambassador”, thanking the residents of Tripoli for their support for the Syrian people. The head of the Tahrir Party, Walid Darniqa, who was present at the demonstration, called for the suspension of all security agreements between Lebanon and Syria, urging security forces against persecuting Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the party’s media officer Ahmed al-Qasas denied that the party had organized Friday’s demonstration, saying that it does not support Darniqa’s statements. Some 22,000 Syrians have fled to Lebanon to escape the Syrian regime’s crackdown against the revolt that began in March 2011 and left some 15,000 dead.

Tehran Says IDs of Iranians Arrested in Kenya Not Known

Naharnet/23 June 2012/ The identities of two Iranians whose arrest in Kenya this week preceded a U.S. alert of a planned "terrorist attack" in the country are not yet known, authorities in Tehran said on Saturday."The identities of these persons are not yet known to us and the Iranian embassy in Nairobi is seeking to obtain information and a consular visit," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, quoted by state news agency IRNA."As long as the identities of these persons are not obtained, we cannot make any comment about this matter," he said. "But given the good and brotherly relations between Iran and Kenya, it appears that certain circles and foreign media are trying to undermine them (the relations) by evoking such information and accusations," Mehmanparast added.Kenyan police said they arrested one of the Iranians last Wednesday and the other on Thursday. "They are being interrogated to establish their involvement in terrorism activities," said Aggrey Adoli, police chief for Coast province. Kenyan officials did not identify the two but said they had led police to two stashes of chemicals believed to be used to make bombs. The U.S. embassy in Kenya on Saturday warned it had received information "of an imminent threat of a terrorist attack in Mombasa," Kenya's second-biggest city and a popular coastal destination. The embassy said all U.S. government employees were barred from travelling to Mombasa for the next week. The French embassy in Nairobi also warned its citizens to be "extremely vigilant" in Mombasa and the surrounding area.*Agence France Presse.

Egypt liberals: US backs Islamists

Roi Kais Published: 06.23.12/Ynetnews
Muslim Brotherhood hijacked revolution, US endorses Islamists, Egypt's liberal parties say
The US government was pressing Egypt's military leadership to transfer power to the Muslim Brotherhood, which "hijacked the revolution," the country's liberal parties charged Saturday.
Earlier Saturday, the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission announced that the winner of the run-off election would be announced on Sunday after debate on candidates' appeals had concluded. One official on the commission has leaked that the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, Mohammad Morsi, had raked in a majority of the votes, but over the past week secular candidate Ahmed Shafiq also claimed victory. General Abed al-Munim Kato, an advisor to the military council's public relations department, has vilified both the US and the Muslim Brotherhood in light of recent events. In an interview to the al-Masry al-Youm newspaper, Kato stressed that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's criticism of the military rule and her calls for regime change served as confirmation of contact between the US and senior Muslim Brotherhood officials. "It is unacceptable that Egypt face outside pressure that forces Morsi on us as president," he said. "Will Morsi be elected president because he spent a lot of time in the US or because his children have US citizenship?" the general wondered, adding that "The Muslim Brotherhood movement has shown itself." Meanwhile, sources close to both sides told the al-Ahram newspaper that the military government and the Muslim Brotherhood were holding intensive, "high-level" talks that could lead to a political deal. In the end, they claimed, Morsi would be declared president. On Friday, as tens of thousands demonstrated in Cairo's Tahrir Square in support of the Muslim Brotherhood and against the army's latest move, Morsi himself called to announce the election results without further delay. Speaking at a press conference, Morsi tried to play down the tension with the army and said that he had no problem with the ruling military council, calling it "patriotic."

The first liberated warplane in Syria

By Mshari al-Zaydi/Asharq Alawsat
The best response to the Russian state, and its army, participating in the crimes of the Bashar al-Assad regime is for a Syrian Air Force pilot to defect from the al-Assad regime, along with his Russian-made MiG fighter jet. This MiG fighter jet is from the same arsenal that that Russia is providing al-Assad. Yesterday, Jordan announced that it had granted political asylum to the Syrian pilot who defected from the al-Assad regime, landing at a Jordanian Air Force base in al-Mafraq, “at his own request”.Syrian state television reported that Colonel Hassan al-Mirei Hamadeh was flying his warplane in southern Syria, however communication with him cut-off. Syrian state media acknowledged that the pilot had defected and described him as a traitor.
The Russians continues to supply the al-Assad regime, and this supply is escalating and becoming more overt, with the al-Assad regime being supplied with helicopters and different forms of arms. All of these arms are being utilized against unarmed Syrian citizens across the country, from Homs to Hama; from Idlib in the north to Deraa in the south to Deir Ezzor in the east. And after all this, we hear “Mullah” Lavrov lecture us about a peaceful solution and non-intervention in Syria!
Jordan did the right thing by providing asylum to this pilot who has defected from the al-Assad gang and his killing machine, and this act is much better than the empty talk and wishful thinking that the entire world has preoccupied itself with over the past 15 months with regards to attempting to convince the al-Assad regime to stop the killing. On the one hand, we see an escalation in diplomatic efforts, whilst on the other we see the Iranian Quds Force and Hezbollah brigades providing the al-Assad regime with all forms of material and military assistance, not to mention media support. In addition to this, the coffers of the Russian military have been opened to al-Assad, and Moscow is supplying al-Assad via Syria’s Tartus port, and so even the Russian navy has moved to support al-Assad the killer! Therefore after all of this, how can we talk about a peaceful solution, and the necessity of western states not arming the Syrian opposition, which is what Mullah Lavrov has arrogantly and provocatively stated on a number of occasions? The Syrian regime’s brutality is expected to increase following this defection, and perhaps it will carry out retaliatory action against Jordan, and perhaps even Qatar and Saudi Arabia. However it is important to know that the cost of hosting and arming the opposition is far less than leaving it to chaos and improvisation. In addition to this, the support for the al-Assad regime being provided by Russia and Iran is costing them more than it is costing the Arab states – and perhaps some Western states as well - to support the Syrian opposition and the Free Syrian Army [FSA].
Let me be frank, we must do everything that we can to embrace and arm the Syrian opposition, and direct its course, in order to guarantee that it does not incline towards any specific political ideology, whether left-wing or right-wing. This is what would happen if we left the Syrian opposition to direct its own course.
The moment of truth has arrived, and Jordan taking the simple step of granting this Syrian defector political asylum – in comparison with Russia and Iran’s support for al-Assad – will have a huge impact in weakening the morale of the al-Assad army, and encourage defections and even coup. Therefore this one action has been better than the dozens of noble Arab speeches or statements issued by the EU or White House. First look at the situation on the ground, and then speak…this is what our rivals are doing, so we must do as they do.

European ministers back Beirut’s direction
June 23, 2012/By Stephen Dockery/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: European foreign ministers voiced broad support for Lebanon Friday, backing the policy of dissociation over the Syrian conflict, National Dialogue over security issues and assistance for refugees.
The remarks came from the foreign ministers of Sweden, Poland and Bulgaria in Beirut during a string of meetings they had with President Michel Sleiman, Speaker Nabih Berri and former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. “I think there is general agreement between all of us that it is extremely important to insulate Lebanon from the crisis in Syria,” Bulgaria’s Nickolay Mladenov told a news conference. “We are quite concerned with the regional effects of the situation in Syria.”
The ministers said they would carefully monitor Syrian incursions into Lebanese territory and also reaffirmed the European Union’s backing of a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis.
Lebanon has been gripped by a period of general instability related to the 16-month-old uprising in Syria against President Bashar Assad’s regime. Months of sporadic violence have raised the specter of civil war, inflaming sectarian feuds and challenging the current government’s policy of dissociation form the conflict.
Despite the unrest, the message from the foreign ministers who will report back to the European Union was: hold the course.
“We would like to repeat the support of the European Union for the effort of the Lebanese leadership to promote peace, security and stability in a complex regional environment,” said Carl Bildt, Sweden’s foreign minister. Bildt said that Sleiman’s call to reconvene National Dialogue had been an important step, and the ministers voiced support for the efforts to tackle security issues and non-state weapons in the country. “This process exemplifies the existing political will and capacity of the leaders of Lebanon to come together in the interests of the country,” Bildt said.
A statement from Baabda Palace issued after the president’s meeting with the trio said Sleiman expressed hope that dialogue would continue and said Monday’s session must tackle the issues on its agenda: protecting Lebanon from the repercussions of the Syria conflict and rejecting the establishment of a buffer zone used for smuggling weapons and fighters.
Other issues discussed by the ministers included alleviating poverty in north Lebanon as part of efforts to increase stability, controlling conflicts in the Palestinian camps and helping Palestinian and Syrian refugees.
“We also want to ensure that adequate support is given to the vulnerable populations that are seeking help in Lebanon at this time, such as Palestinian refugees,” Bildt said.
The ministers were accompanied by EU Ambassador to Lebanon Angelina Eichhorst. The officials are scheduled to visit Iraq and then travel to Luxembourg Sunday, where they will share their impressions with the EU’s other 24 foreign ministers.
The foreign ministers also met with Future Movement leader Siniora Friday evening and again reaffirmed their calls for National Dialogue, stability and disassociation.
“This visit is meant to really reinforce the support of the European Union to Lebanon in this particular case, but also to the region as a whole at a time of some considerable strain,” Bildt said.

SSNP names candidate for north Lebanon district by-elections
June 23, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party said Saturday it would run Walid Azar as its candidate for by-elections in the north Lebanon district of Koura.
The by-elections, set for July 15, will be held to fill the Greek Orthodox post which became vacant following the death of Lebanese Forces MP Farid Habib on May 31.
The LF decided to nominate Fadi Abdullah Karam earlier this month while on June 19, Jean Jabr Mufarrij and Naim Musa al-Ujaimi registered their respective candidacies for the by-election.
Those intending to run in the election have until June 29 to register their candidacy.

Newly-supplied Russian Buk-M2 anti-air missile used to down Turkish warplane

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 23, 2012 To ambush the Turkish Air Force F-4 Super Phantom Friday June 22, over Latakia, Syria used Russian-made self-propelled medium range anti-air Buk-M2 missiles (NATO codenamed SA-11) recently supplied by Moscow. The SA-11 can down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 14 kilometers and Mach 3 speed.
Since the sophisticated weapons were delivered to the Assad regime in recent weeks, it must be assumed that local missile crews had not finished training in their use and would have had to rely on help from their Russian instructors to fire one.
This would be the first instance in the 15-month Syrian uprising of an advanced Russian-supplied weapon hitting the military target of a NATO member. Hence the comment from Washington by US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland who said: “We’ve seen the reports… We have obviously been in contact with our Turkish ally…. To my knowledge, they haven’t raised this at NATO at this point.”
Ankara has repeatedly threatened to ask NATO to invoke the pact’s article 5 obligating members to come to the aid of a fellow member coming under attack. In this case, however, the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric was relatively restrained. He vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response “once the incident is fully clarified,” leaving Ankara’s response deliberately vague.
President Abdullah Gul spoke out more strongly: “It is impossible to ignore our fighter jet being shot down by Syria,” he said after Damascus admitted to shooting down the plane, claiming its air defenses acted according to standard procedure before realizing it was a Turkish air force jet. Both are searching for the two missing pilots.
debkafile’s military experts add: This was also the first time in five years any weapons system with Israeli manufacturing input had faced a Russian weapon acquired by Syria.
The first time was September 6, 2007, when Israeli fighter-bombers demolished the Iranian-North Korean-built nuclear reactor in the northern Syrian town of Al-Kibar. Airspace over the reactor was guarded by Russian Pantsyr-S1 anti-air missiles capable of reaching aircraft flying at altitudes of up 12 kilometers as well as cruise missiles. Israeli bombers got through by disabling the Russian missiles’ radar so that Damascus never realized its reactor was being bombed until it had been smashed and Israeli bombers were home.
Five years later, Turkey lost a Super Phantom which had undergone partial upgrading by the Israeli Aerospace Industry. However, two years ago, Ankara broke off its security and military ties with Jerusalem after a clash at sea between Turkish Mavi Marmara and Israel troops wich intercepted the vessel on its way to break Israel’s Gaza blockade, leaving nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists dead.
By severing those ties, the Erdogan government left Israel’s improvements unfinished and the Turkish air force’s F-4 short of counter-measures for evading or attacking the latest Russian-made air defense weapons fired by Syria.
According to, debkafile’s military sources waylaying a Turkish military plane over the sea was therefore a simple matter for the new SA-11.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan admitted Saturday that the jet was shot down over the Mediterranean around 13 kilometers west of the Syrian port of Latakia. He did not explain what a Turkish bomber fighter was doing over Syrian territorial waters, but the suggestion, which Western military sources have confirmed, was that Turkish military jets have lately been carrying out almost daily reconnaissance flights over the Syrian coast. Moscow and Damascus apparently decided it was time to stop the missions which among other things spied on the Russian arms supplies transiting Russian bases at the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia.

After Moscow nuclear talks, Netanyahu has even less faith world will stop Iran

By Yossi Verter | Jun.22, 2012/Haaretz
We're set for another crazy summer in Israel. But two things are clear: Moshe Ya'alon's timing for speaking out in favor of an Iran strike, and the fact that no one will lose his job over the Carmel fire report.
An Israeli privy to the state's closest secrets turned to his interlocutor. "You don't understand how serious this is," he said. "Last time, we managed to block it. Let's see what happens this time."
We're now in the middle of 2012, the year of decision, as Defense Minister Ehud Barak calls it. We're just weeks from August, when Iran will, according to Barak, enter the "zone of immunity" and become impervious to efforts to hamper its nuclear program.
The statements by the keeper of state secrets, whose name and position cannot be disclosed, contradict the media's recent downplaying of the possible employment of the military option against Iran. What does this quiet mean?
What can be inferred from remarks by Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon in last week's interview with Haaretz's Ari Shavit? Ya'alon declared that if he were forced to choose between bombing Iran and allowing Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb, he would choose the former.
In the forum of nine senior ministers (nine ever since Shaul Mofaz brought Kadima into the government), Ya'alon has been a critic of the idea of attacking Iran. In the media, he has been characterized as a minister who preempted a rash decision. Now Ya'alon seems to have switched camps and joined supporters of the attack option.
That's not certain, though. What's certain is that Ya'alon's timing in granting the interview was not coincidental.
In March, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted by The Washington Post's David Ignatius as saying that "there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June - before Iran enters what Israelis describe as a 'zone of immunity' to commence building a nuclear bomb." This week, in mid-June, the Moscow round of talks between the big powers and the Iranians collapsed.
People who met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week heard him speak with unusual vehemence about the way the Western powers have allowed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to drag them through another round of useless negotiations. "It's not as though in the past [Netyanyahu] had much respect for the international community. Now he has even less, much less," someone close to prime minister said.
Black hole
Let's not hold our breath. No minister will resign or be dismissed, and no minister will admit guilt or accept responsibility. The same is true of the prime minister, who for the second time in a week was stung by stiff criticism for faulty management. The report on the Carmel fire will quickly disappear into the black hole that serves as a repository for state comptroller reports.
Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss awarded most of the blame for the failure in fighting the fire to Interior Minister Eli Yishai and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz. During a high-profile visit Wednesday to the home of a bereaved family, Yishai said he would demand that the cabinet discuss the report.
During his many years as interior minister, Yishai has often called for cabinet discussions, has written innumerable letters and has issued innumerable warnings. For such letters and warnings, Yishai is praised about 30 times in the comptroller's report. So is it any wonder he believes he deserves a badge of merit, not shame, for his part in the Carmel fire?
Similarly, Steinitz says he doesn't understand what the comptroller wants from him. In recent months, Steinitz hasn't missed an opportunity to brand the comptroller's report "delusional." This week, Lindenstrauss said one of his associates had done a Google search under "Steinitz" and "delusional." The number of hits this pair received, he claimed, is more than the number of times the word "Jerusalem" appears in the Bible.
In private talks, Lindenstrauss doesn't conceal his discomfort with retired Judge Eliyahu Winograd, who is representing Yishai in his dealings with the comptroller's office and the media. Winograd appears in a short video that could go viral. A judge who headed state committees of investigation shouldn't do such things, Lindenstrauss believes.
The comptroller says neither Yishai nor Steinitz should be blamed for the deaths of 44 Israel Prison Service cadets, policemen and firefighters. Steinitz thinks Lindenstrauss is a hypocrite. After all, at one stage, the comptroller was recorded telling bereaved families that they should demand the dismissal of ministers. Now he's being cautious after he realized he lacks the authority to demand ministers' resignations.
In the comptroller's preliminary report, released shortly after the blaze, Defense Minister Barak was criticized for not having integrated the fire service into the national emergency authority. In later versions, Barak's name disappeared. Steinitz thinks Barak took steps to become friends with the comptroller, inviting him to visit secret units in the Israel Defense Forces, and thus avoided being held responsible in the final report.
At one stage, sources in the comptroller's office leaked Lindenstrauss' intention to charge Netanyahu with individual responsibility for failing press his government to pass budget increases for firefighting.
Steinitz's aides say the comptroller's office was given the message that imputing individual responsibility to the prime minister would never be taken seriously. It was this lobbying and pressure, Steinitz believes, that led to his becoming the scapegoat in the final report.
"No finance minister in the history of Israel has ever had a prominent role in a report addressing firefighting, the police force or security," Steinitz exclaimed this week. "Was America's secretary of the treasury blamed for the consequences of Hurricane Katrina? What kind of governmental culture does this comptroller's report create? From now on, every minister will threaten us, saying that if we don't agree to his budget demands, we'll be responsible for the deaths of citizens."
In a recent discussion between officials from the finance and defense ministries, Barak demanded another NIS 7 billion for the bureaucracy under his his direction. This would be channeled toward the Iron Dome anti-rocket system, other measures to defend civilians, and new weapons projects. The Finance Ministry turned down the requests.
"You know who'll be investigated after the next war," Barak said to the head of the Finance Ministry's budget division, according to a ministry official. "Enough, Ehud, that's enough," Steinitz said to him, "What you're doing is despicable."
The interior minister's claims that he has continuously demanded additional budget allocations for firefighting make the finance minister laugh. During budget talks for 2009 and 2010, Yishai didn't make any demands to increase firefighting budgets; he focused on allocations to municipal governments, Steinitz insists.
"If I were to give NIS 3 billion to NIS 4 billion to the health system, and another NIS 3 billion to NIS 4 billion to the Transportation Ministry, that would save lives of hospital patients and people riding in cars. But where would I get the money? If the cabinet agrees to a new allocation, it also has to decide where to find the money - should it be taken from the education budget, or from social welfare or defense?" Steinitz asks.
"How are finance ministers judged in other countries, especially during the recent turbulent years? Are they judged based on their fire services, or on the basis of on their countries' economies, growth rates and unemployment rates?"
People who spoke with Steinitz Wednesday night, hours after the release of the comptroller's report, found him placid enough. "Yes, I'm still finance minister," he told associates who asked how he was doing.
He was also asked whether his term should now be measured in days or weeks. "In years," he replied. He quoted Netanyahu, himself a former finance minister, who said that under the norms dictated by the State Comptroller's Office, no finance minister would be able to function.
A senior official asked Netanyahu whether it would be wise to dismiss Steinitz or move him to another ministry. "Are you suggesting that I abandon Yuval?" Netanyahu asked.
Lieberman goes lefty
Many people at Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's press conference Monday were surprised. Lieberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, vented unmistakable, if implicit, criticism of Eli Yishai, who the evening before had been photographed at Ben-Gurion International Airport waving goodbye to the first wave of migrants expelled to South Sudan.
Such images cause tremendous damage to Israel, Lieberman complained at the Knesset press conference. He censored those who would sacrifice national interests to promote their own short-term, partisan needs.
As Lieberman made these statements, it was hard not to be reminded of comments he has made in the past that didn't exactly contribute to Israel's becoming the darling of the international community. The high point came two years ago, when the foreign minister addressed the UN General Assembly and, flatly contradicting the position of the prime minister, delivered an ultra-nationalist, extremist, bellicose and pessimistic address.
Yisrael Beiteinu insiders see two developments that could damage the party. The first threat is posed from the left, by TV personality Yair Lapid's new party, Yesh Atid. Secular, native-born voters who loathe the ultra-Orthodox and have recently found a political home with Lieberman might cross over and join Lapid's new party. Lieberman's recent outburst against Yishai might have been intended to prevent such a drift of secular Yisrael Beiteinu voters to Lapid.
The second trend both contradicts and supports the first one. The issue is that Yishai, Shas' chairman, has taken over leadership of Israel's anti-foreigner forces. Until recently, Arabs were the targets of the country's xenophobes; more precisely, the average Israeli's fears and suspicions were directed against the Arabs. Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu were good at exploiting such emotions. But over the past year, African migrants have replaced Arabs as the alleged existential threat to the state's Jewish character.
By emerging as the great enemy of migrants and the savior of Israel's Jewish identity, Yishai has taken away Lieberman's vote-attracting magic. Left with no other option on the Sudanese front, Lieberman has been forced to wave the flag of humanitarianism and attack Yishai from the left.
There's another factor: Lieberman is a good friend of former Shas chief Aryeh Deri's, and Deri hasn't been thrilled by Yishai's emergence as a national leader in the expulsion of migrant workers. And it's hard to talk about Lieberman without talking about his party colleague MK Anastassia Michaeli. In the past two weeks, Michaeli, an expert in immersing Yisrael Beiteinu in scandal, has made a series of primitive utterances against the gay community.
On her own, Michaeli is neither important nor especially interesting, but the party leader who brought her to the Knesset owes us an explanation about her behavior. Yisrael Beiteinu doesn't hold primaries, and Lieberman scrupulously chooses its candidates. He has repeatedly come up with scandal-mongers - before Michaeli, it was Esterina Tartman, who lied about her academic credentials and was disgraced around the time Lieberman nominated her to become tourism minister.
The problem isn't limited to these two women. In the past two Knessets, Yisrael Beiteinu has suffered a number of strange characters who rack up undistinguished parliamentary careers. Lieberman needs to take more time choosing his party's MKs.

Aoun says Cabinet group paralyzing work of government
June 23, 2012/PM The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Free Patriotic Movement head MP Michel Aoun accused a group in the Cabinet Saturday of disrupting the work of his ministers and said the current electricity crisis was a result of an accumulation of years of neglect to the sector. “It is true that today we are the majority in Cabinet but we are only 10 out of 20 and we have discovered that a group was formed within the Cabinet to paralyze our plans and disrupt our work,” Aoun told reporters upon his arrival at the Maronite Archbishopric of Zahle. Aoun has repeatedly accused Prime Minister Najib Mikati, ministers loyal to Progressive Socialist Party head MP Walid Jumblatt and ministers loyal to President Michel Sleiman as disrupting work of the government. Aoun is on a three-day visit to east Lebanon where he met Saturday with Bishop Mansour Hobeika and a number of priests at the archbishopric. He also said projects that his party had proposed were aimed at developing various parts of the country, and not just the Lebanese capital.
“Raise your voices via the media or in electoral boxes, express yourselves through all means. This is what supports us, particularly that we face daily attacks, ” Aoun added.
As for the severe power cuts sweeping the country in the past few weeks, Aoun defended Energy Minister Gebran Bassil, also an FPM member, and blamed previous governments for failing to address the problems of the sector. “This is a 20-year-old inheritance. The electricity did not go off when I came,” he said.
“This issue is going to take some time [to resolve],” Aoun added. At the Syriac Archbishopric Aoun also spoke about Christians in Syria and Lebanon and said those in Syria would witness a happy conclusion to the unrest but that it would come with sacrifices. As for those in Lebanon, Aoun said that his party was working on a draft law to increase the number of MPs from “smaller sects,” including from the Syriac community. “I have always considered Christians to be united. It is not enough to reach unity but to actually live it. If they pray a lot for unity, they’re going to believe they’re divided,” he said.

The view from Tripoli’s restive Jabal Mohsen

June 23, 2012/By Mirella Hodeib/The Daily Star
The fight against Jabal Mohsen is carried out by various fronts that surround the neighborhood. (The Daily Star/Antoine Amrieh)
TRIPOLI, Lebanon: Residents of Tripoli’s Jabal Mohsen have no choice but to spend hot and sticky summer afternoons confined to the neighborhood’s overcrowded alleys.
Men discuss politics in cafes while children play ball in the streets before being ordered back home by mothers screaming from windows and balconies.
The latest clashes with Bab al-Tabbaneh, the most intense in recent years, in addition to a series of attacks against Alawite businesses, have left the people of the “Jabal” bitter but resilient.
“We are attacked on a daily basis and our businesses are targeted,” local Mohsen Dahil laments. “But we won’t leave ... we’re Lebanese and we’ve got nowhere else to go.”
Alawites of the Jabal, who back Syrian President Bashar Assad, fought hammer and tongs against their Sunni rivals stationed in the neighborhoods encircling their tiny territory. In the aftermath, several businesses owned by Alawites across the northern coastal city of Tripoli were burned down.
The head of Jabal Mohsen’s dominant group, the Arab Democratic Party, argues that unlike the city’s other political factions, his party was not invited to recent meetings held by Mufti Malek Shaar intended to contain the violence. This is a clear indicator, he says, that the ADP did not initiate the clashes.
“They hold those meetings without us, and the shooting and shelling instantly ceases, so we stop in turn,” Rifaat Ali Eid tells The Daily Star from an office in his well-guarded villa in the Jabal.
“What does this mean?” he asks. “It can mean only one thing: Jabal Mohsen is not picking a fight and we’re only responding to attacks against us.”
The young Alawite leader describes as “insignificant” reports that groups affiliated with ADP’s ally, Hezbollah, are actively taking part in attacks against Jabal Mohsen.
“These are individual cases that have no influence on the actual battle,” he maintains. “Almost half of Tripoli receives assistance from Hezbollah in one form or the other, and this in no way means Hezbollah is fighting against us.”
Pictures of Eid, his father – the former Tripoli MP Ali Eid – the late Syrian President Hafez Assad and his embattled son Bashar hang across Jabal Mohsen. One orphan poster depicts Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
Eid, who collects the remains of shells fired at Jabal Mohsen on a corner of the bookshelves behind him, blames Internal Security Forces chief Ashraf Rifi and Wissam al-Hasan, the head of the ISF’s Information Branch, for fueling tension in Tripoli.
He says these security apparatuses are behind the growing influence of Islamist and Salafist groups in the city. “But they are nurturing a monster,” Eid adds. “Sooner or later things will blow out of control and all of Tripoli will be affected by [this monster], not only Jabal Mohsen.”
The fight against Jabal Mohsen is not carried out solely through its rival Bab al-Tabbaneh, but rather across several fronts that encircle Tripoli’s Alawite quarter of 50,000 people.
During clashes, gunmen from the Jabal fight on multiple fronts including Bab al-Tabbaneh, Qibbeh, Baqqar, Mankoubin and more recently the Riva, which towers above Jabal Mohsen.
Sunni fighters now dominate the Riva axis, capturing a vital route from the Alawites and further tightening their siege on the neighborhood, which lacks any medical facility now that Al-Zahraa Hospital has been transformed into Lebanese Army barracks.
It is through the Riva region that Alawite fighters previously could access Zghorta, the district of their closest ally in north Lebanon, Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh, without having to go through rival areas in Tripoli.
Jabal Mohsen students, who have to take official exams in Tripoli and Zghorta areas, are being escorted to test centers by Army personnel.
“What kills me is that the kids can’t take their exams without being escorted by the Army,” says Jabal Mohsen resident Ahmad al-Abed. “Isn’t exam stress enough?”
Long-term feelings of uneasiness between the Jabal and its environs have sectarian, historical and socioeconomic roots.
In Tripoli, these differences have manifested themselves since the 1960s in recurrent clashes between the impoverished districts of Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh.
More recently, the 15-month uprising against Assad, an Alawite, has widened the schism between the neighboring communities.
While Tripoli’s Sunnis speak of a moral duty toward anti-Assad rebels, Lebanon’s Alawite community says it owes a lot to the Assad family.
“If they [Sunnis] want the Assad regime to fall, let them go and fight it on the border [with Syria] rather than launch attacks against us,” Abed says.
In 1976 when Palestinian factions took over Jabal Mohsen, Alawite families were forced to flee their homes and were displaced to villages in the northern district of Akkar and the Syrian coastline. Former Tripoli MP Ali Eid sought the help of then-President Hafez Assad, who trained and gave weapons to fleeing Lebanese Alawites.
“In 1976 the Alawites vowed that they would never again be mistreated or displaced,” says Rifaat Eid. “Even if it costs us our lives we won’t abandon the Jabal.”
But nowadays, Tripoli’s Sunni fighters say there is a pressing need to get rid of Eid and his supporters if the tension between Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh is to ease. They say the ADP is causing strife in order to ease the pressure on Assad.
“Bashar Assad has so far shown great resilience in the face of the superpowers. He doesn’t need the help of the ADP,” Eid says, adding that the Alawites of Jabal Mohsen have no interest in battling with their neighbors.
“We don’t want strife. We are 50,000 people and they are 800,000,” he says. “I am not going to kill my people.”
Eid argues that the calm Tripoli witnessed in the last week was “precarious,” saying there is no genuine political cover for the Army to carry out its duties and “neutralize the actual sources of trouble.”
But Eid reiterates that the ADP is committed to stability and coexistence. “Don’t think I’m incapable of being cruel and inflicting pain to the other side,” he says. “I am [just] not being nasty because I am against strife.”

Lebanon's Arabic press digest - June 23, 2012 June/The Daily Star
Lebanon's Arabic press digest.
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Saturday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
As-Safir
Mikati meets Clinton and a truce between Bkirki and March 14
After the Palestinian and Lebanese leaderships succeeded in bringing the camps out of the circle of tension, a sense of relief was felt in the last couple of hours.
They agreed to shift to their relations to another level under the banner of easing measures by the Lebanese Army at refugee camps, particularly in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp.
While Prime Minister Najib Mikati met U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton on the sidelines of the Sustainable Development conference in Rio de Janeiro, the domestic scene witnessed a Christian détente between Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai and Maronites from the March 14 coalition after a period of tension and confusion.
The period also came after Rai voiced stances with regard to the Syrian situation and the resistance's arms.
Meanwhile, head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun began a three-day trip to Zahle where he launched a "call for unity over common principles in order for us to form a barrier in the face of the unnatural in the 21 century."
Sources close to Bkirki voiced relief over the atmosphere of the meeting between March 14 and Rai and affirmed that Bkirki’s doors are always open.
“The meeting was good and an occasion to stress yet again that the Maronite patriarch does not take sides as some tried to portray him but he is open for everyone."
Sources close to March 14 coalition said the meeting focused on the coming phase and possible developments, "particularly that we are facing two challenges; the first is the collapse of the Syrian regime ... the second is the pope's visit" that should correct the Christian path and fortify it.
An-Nahar
What happened in the ice-breaking meeting?
The hour-and-a-half, closed-door meeting between March 14 coalition figures and Bkirki was truly an icebreaker meeting during which the sides attempted to restore commonalities on some domestic political issues and the situation in Syria.
The fact is that the meeting gained double importance: it melted the layers of ice that have built up over the last few months between the March 14 coalition and Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai on the one hand and entailed an honest discussion of each party's views of the other.
In a summary of how the meeting went obtained by An-Nahar newspaper, the meeting witnessed honest discussions and a desire to build the foundation for a new phase described by the attendees as a "new page."
Rai began the meeting by expressing his happiness of the gathering.
Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel stressed during the meeting “on principles that should not be compromised, primarily Hezbollah's weapons that are illegitimate and distancing Lebanon from the crisis in Syria.”
He added that the foundations of Christianity compel us to stand in solidarity with the oppressed in Syria.
In turn, Rai explained the stances he announced while he was on an official visit to Paris earlier in the year and said that any differences in opinion should not be discussed in the media, adding: "I did not change the ethics of Bkirki."
He also affirmed his opposition to any weapons that are illegitimate, regardless of the party possessing them.
Information obtained by An-Nahar indicates that preparations are under way for a visit by Lebanese Forces Leader head Samir Geagea to Bkirki.
Al-Akhbar
Rai surprises March 14
Three headlines dominated "the meeting of disclosure" between the Maronite patriarch and Maronites from the March 14 coalition in which Sayyed Bkirki [Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai] listened to the concerns of the delegation which expressed surprise of how welcoming Rai was despite their criticism.
The meeting was characterized by "complete honesty and positivity," as one source described it.
Lebanese Forces MP Strida Geagea suggested at the end of the meeting that the delegation would prepare a memo of ideas that were discussed to be adopted by Bkirki later. Rai agreed to the suggestion.
Sources stressed on the positive atmosphere that dominated the discussions.
Three main topics were discussed: the situation in Syria, Taif Accord and Hezbollah's weapons.
The most prominent speaker was Kataeb leader Amin Gemayel who voiced concern about Hezbollah's arsenal, which he said was threatening sovereignty and national unity.
Geagea affirmed the historical relationship between the Lebanese Forces and Bkirki, stressing on the role of the seat of the Maronite Church in unifying Lebanese.
She added that Bkriki should lead the way and not follow any party in Lebanon.
Rai said that Bkirki coordinates its stance with The Vatican on a regular basis and that the pope will present a new vision of the east in his upcoming visit to Lebanon.
Rai stressed on the need to follow up with issues related to Christians, including their status in the public sector, an election law and the issue land sales.
Ad-Diyar
Berri: When we began dialogue, war stopped.
The European delegation voiced its appreciation of the role played by President Michel Sleiman with regards to the repercussions of the situation in the region and particularly that of the Syria crisis on Lebanon. They also appreciated the relaunching of dialogue between the Lebanese which is a need and a necessity.
For his part, Sleiman welcomed the delegation and hoped for the continuation of dialogue between Lebanese, saying that Monday’s session would achieve progress.
Sleiman said that dialogue participants agreed on two main things: distancing Lebanon from repercussions in Syria and refusing to establish a buffer zone that might be used to smuggle arms and gunmen to Syria.
He added that welcoming Syrian refugees in Lebanon is a humanitarian decision and as soon as things are back to normal, they will go back to their homes.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri received the delegation in the presence of Talal Sahili, the head of foreign relations in Amal Movement, and his media adviser Ali Hamdan.
The European ministers affirmed their keenness on Lebanon's stability and security amid regional developments, particularly in Syria, and expressed support for dialogue between Lebanese.
Berri said that in Lebanon “we went through a civil war that lasted years followed by more than 100 decisions for a cease-fire. But when we began political dialogue things were solved and the war ended.”
"There are European calls to stop violence and it is a good thing. But how does the violence stop?” he asked. “Via dialogue,” he added.

Lebanon sheikh warns of toy gun that allegedly insults prophet's wife
June 22, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Controversial Sidon Preacher Sheikh Ahmad Assir warned Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah’s leader Friday that he will haunt their nights if they fail to deal immediately with a toy gun that he said featured an audio recording that insults a wife of Muslim Prophet Mohammad's when the trigger is pulled.Addressing both Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah and Berri during his Friday sermon, Assir said: “If you don't take heed of this issue I will not let you sleep at night so long as I live.” He added that his means would be peaceful but that he would continue until balance is restored in Lebanon.
Assir held up a plastic toy M16 machine gun and said that when the trigger is pulled, an audio recording says, “Hit Aisha,” referring to Aisha Bint Abu Bakr, known in history as the favorite wife of the Muslim Prophet Mohammad. Aisha is revered by Sunnis but unpopular among Shiites, who resent the fact that she opposed allowing Ali Ibn Abi Taleb, the cousin and son-in-law of the prophet, from becoming caliph following the latter’s death. Last year, fears of sectarian tensions grew in multi-religious Sidon after Assir criticized the Shiite community, saying that a Shiite sheikh had insulted Aisha.
During his Friday sermon at Bilal Bin Rabah Mosque, Assir said that concerns over sectarian tensions Lebanon will not deter him from pursuing this case.
"Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah and Mr. Nabih Berri, we want to live in peace with you ... These acts by your supporters – and I exclude aware officials in the Amal Movement, the party of resistance, and the Shiite mass which is sometimes the biggest victim because the Iranian project is taking them to a dangerous place – to them I say that the issue has become very dangerous,” Assir said.
The sheikh also announced the establishment of a TV channel dedicated to religious and Lebanese affairs and said that tens of donors are financing the channel.
 

Turkey weighs response after Syria downs Turkish jet
By Jonathon Burch and Erika Solomon
ANKARA/BEIRUT | Sat Jun 23, 2012/ (Reuters) - Turkey promised on Saturday to do "whatever necessary" in response to Syria's shooting-down of a Turkish fighter, but did not immediately contest an assertion by Damascus that the jet had been in its airspace at the time
contest an assertion by Damascus that the jet had been in its airspace at the time.
The downing of the aircraft, at a point close to the sea borders of both countries, provided a demonstration of Syria's formidable Russian-supplied air defenses; one of the many reasons for Western qualms about any military intervention to halt bloodshed in the country.
Ankara's once-friendly relations with Damascus had already turned icy over President Bashar al-Assad's violent crackdown on a 16-month-old revolt, but signals from both sides suggested neither wanted a military confrontation over the incident.
"It is not possible to cover over a thing like this, whatever is necessary will be done," Turkish President Abdullah Gul said, according to state news agency Anatolia, adding that Ankara had been in telephone contact with Syrian authorities.
He said it was routine for fast-flying jets to cross borders for a short distance and that an investigation would determine whether the F-4 fighter was brought down in Turkish airspace.
Syria's military said the Turkish aircraft was flying low, just one kilometer off the Syrian coast, when it was shot down.
"The navies of the two countries have established contact. Syrian naval vessels are participating along with the Turkish side in the search operation for the missing pilots," it said.
With the second biggest army in NATO, a force hardened by nearly 30 years of fighting Kurdish rebels, Turkey would be a formidable foe for a Syrian military already struggling to put down a popular uprising and an increasingly potent insurgency.
"DECISIVE STEPS"
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan chaired an emergency security meeting on Friday evening after which his office said it is "understood" that Syria had downed the plane and confirmed that both sides were searching for the two missing airmen.
"Turkey will present its final stance after the incident has been fully brought to light and decisively take the necessary steps," said a statement from Erdogan's office.
Turkish newspapers were less restrained.
"They (the Syrians) will pay the price," said Vatan, while Hurriyet daily said "He (Assad) is playing with fire."
The joint Turkish-Syrian search and rescue operation sits uneasily with Turkey's hosting of the rebel Free Syrian Army fighting to topple Assad, once a personal friend of Erdogan.
The souring of relations over the past year has provoked concern among Turks that Syria may revive its former support for Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) insurgents in southeastern Turkey.
"It's possible the Turks were sending jets in the area in response to an apparent escalation of the PKK's activities," Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, told Reuters.
"Turkey may suspect that Syria and Iran are supporting Kurdish rebel activities now as a reaction to Turkish support of the Syrian revolt," he said.
However, Khashan said he did not expect a harsh military reaction from Turkey. "It is under a tight leash by the United States. They don't want to start a war tomorrow."
BUDDING CIVIL WAR
A civil war, or something closely resembling one, is already in full swing in Syria, where fighting or shelling engulfed parts of the cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Deir al-Zor and Douma, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The British-based watchdog also reported fierce clashes and shelling in the town of al-Bab in Aleppo province, where army helicopters were flying overhead. It said rockets and gunfire had killed three people in al-Qusair, a town in Homs province. Two men were killed in an ambush by security forces in Hama.
Turkey fears the fighting, much of which pits majority Sunni Muslim dissidents and rebels against Assad's Alawite-dominated security forces, could unleash a flood of refugees over its own border and ignite regional sectarian conflict.
It already hosts 32,000 Syrian refugees near the border. The opposition Syrian National Council meets in Istanbul.
Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.
Turkey has said however that Assad must go.
It was unclear why the Syrians had shot down the aircraft, which, having left a base in Malatya, was flying close to a corridor linking Turkey with Turkish forces on Northern Cyprus.
"The Syrian military may have taken a calculated gamble by downing the Turkish plane, which could boost the morale of Assad's loyalists after increased defections from the military," said Yasser Saadeldine, an opposition Syrian commentator.
"A Turkish retaliation would fit into the fantasy he (Assad) is peddling that the uprising is a foreign conspiracy."
Russia and China, Assad's strongest backers abroad, have fiercely opposed any outside interference in the Syrian crisis, saying envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan is the only way forward.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his Syrian counterpart on Friday that he had urged Syria to "do a lot more" to implement Annan's U.N.-backed proposals, but that foreign countries must also press rebels to stop the violence.
Lavrov said the Syrian authorities were ready to withdraw troops from cities "simultaneously" with rebels. A Syrian military pullback and a ceasefire were key elements in Annan's six-point peace plan, most of which remains a dead letter.
(Additional reporting by; Writing by Alistair Lyon; editing by Ralph Boulton)

Syria’s quagmire grows deeper

June 23, 2012/By Daily Star Staff Agencies
Turkey lost an F-4 jet over the Mediterranean.
ANKARA/BEIRUT: Turkey says its air force jet that disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea Friday was shot down by Syria, in an action likely to worsen already strained relations between the neighboring countries. A statement following a two-hour security meeting led by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the warplane that went missing near Syria had been downed by Syrian forces and that the two Turkish pilots remain missing.
It said Turkey “will determinedly take necessary steps” in response, without saying what they would be.
However, in his first public comments on the warplane’s loss earlier Friday, Erdogan adopted a measured tone, telling reporters he could not say whether the plane had crashed or been shot down.
He said he had no word on the fate of the two airmen.
The Turkish military earlier said one of its planes was missing. Erdogan said Turkish ships and helicopters were searching for the airmen in cooperation with Syrian vessels.
Erdogan said he had no firm information on a reported Syrian apology and promised a further statement after a security meeting with his interior and foreign ministers and the chief of general staff later in the evening.
Turkey has joined nations such as the U.S. in saying that Syrian President Bashar Assad should step down because of the uprising in his country. Turkey also has set up refugee camps on its border for more than 32,000 Syrians who have fled the fighting.
Erdogan was earlier reported as saying Damascus had apologized over the downed plane.
“Syria immediately offered a very serious apology for the incident and admitted it was a mistake,” Haberturk daily quoted Erdogan as saying on a plane bound from Brazil to Turkey.
“At this moment the air force and navy are conducting search and rescue operations in the eastern Mediterranean, and luckily our pilots are alive; we have just lost a plane.” There was no explanation as to why Damascus should apologize for a crash, unless its forces had shot down the Turkish F-4 jet or harried it.
The news that Syrian air defenses downed the plane was first reported by Al-Mayadeen, a Lebanon-based television channel launched this month that hopes to counter the influence of Arabic-language satellite stations such as Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, both funded by Sunni Gulf Arab countries that have backed the revolt against Assad.
Lebanon’s Al-Manar television station also reported Syrian defense forces had shot down the plane.
“Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defense forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet,” the Hezbollah-owned channel said.
Turkey’s military said a search and rescue operation was under way. It lost radar and radio contact with the plane after it left Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya.
Two crew were aboard the F-4 jet, Turkish state news agency Anatolia said, citing Malatya Governor Ulvi Saran.
The incident came a day after a Syrian pilot defected, flying a Syrian fighter jet over the Jordanian border, where he was granted political asylum.
NATO-member Turkey, which had become closer to Syria before the uprising against Assad, turned against the Syrian leader when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.
Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up a safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.
Turkey Friday denied allegations it was shipping weapons to Syrian rebels across the border after the New York Times reported Thursday Turkey was among nations arming the rebel fighters.

New government for Syria as fighting ragesBy the CNN Wire Staff

, Sat June 23, 2012/(CNN) -- Just weeks after its parliamentary elections, Syria's besieged leadership announced the formation of a new government, state-run media reported Saturday.
Riad Hijab, who served as minister of agriculture and agrarian reform, is the new prime minister, President Bashar al-Assad said in a decree. A longtime member of the ruling Baathist party, Hijab also governed the Syrian provinces of Latakia and Quneitra during his political career.
But the country's top diplomat, Foreign Minister Walid Moallem, is keeping his post. Two top security officials, Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha and Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar are staying in their jobs as government forces clamp down on an anti-regime uprising.
The Syrian government -- which has asserted its support of reform and change during the 15 months of unrest -- touted a "wide turnout" for its May parliamentary elections, when more than 7,000 candidates vied for 250 parliamentary seats.
Members of the opposition regarded the elections as a sham. They said a vote for any of the candidates amounted to a vote for al-Assad, whose family has ruled the country for 42 years. They argued that the government is only interested in maintaining its power by any means and urged Syrians to boycott the elections.
Government forces shelled northern Syria with helicopters Saturday, opposition activists said. At least six people have died across the country., the Local Coordination Committees said.
Since the anti-government uprising started in March last year, more than 15,000 people in Syria, mostly civilians, have been killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations has said that at least 10,000 people have been killed in the conflict.
Opposition groups say the violence began when a government crackdown on peaceful protesters generated a nationwide uprising. Syria consistently blames terrorists for the violence.
World powers have been working to avoid a full-blown civil war and a U.N. and Arab League-backed peace initiative has failed to take hold. Fears of a wider conflict heightened in the Middle East on Friday when Syrian artillery shot down a Turkish military jet.
The act comes as Syrian-Turkish ties have worsened during the anti-government uprising. Turkey, which hosts Syrian opposition groups and thousands of Syrian refugees, has been outspoken in its criticism of the al-Assad regime.
A Syrian military spokesman quoted by the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency on Saturday said Syrian forces struck "an unidentified aerial target that violated Syrian airspace."
The craft -- flying "at a very low altitude and at high speed over territorial waters" -- crashed in Syrian territorial waters near Latakia province, the spokesman said. Syrian authorities eventually learned that the target was the Turkish jet.
Turkey's President Abdullah Gul said Saturday that the craft may have entered Syria's airspace, according to the semi-official Anatolia news agency.
"When you take in to account the speeds at which jet planes travel over the sea, it is routine for planes to go in and out of borders," he is quoted as saying by the news agency. "It is something that happens without bad intentions and that happens due to the high speeds."
The search for the plane continues, he said, speaking in Kayseri, central Turkey.
"It is not possible to cover something like this up. Whatever needs to be done will be done, without a doubt," he said, according to Anatolia.
Kofi Annan, the special envoy to Syria for the Arab League and the United Nations, urged countries to use their pull on the combatants to stop the fighting. He is also planning an international meeting to discuss next steps on Syria.
"It is time for countries of influence to raise the level of pressure on the parties on the ground, and to persuade them that it is in their interest to stop the killing and start talking," he told a news conference on Friday in Geneva, Switzerland.
"The longer we wait, the darker Syria's future becomes. This process cannot be open-ended," Annan said. "It is urgent that our consultations yield real results soon. Otherwise, I fear we are reaching the day when it will be too late to stop the crisis from spiraling out of control. The time to act is now."
CNN cannot confirm specific reports of violence in Syria because the government has restricted access to the country by international journalists.
*CNN's Saad Abedine and Joe Sterling contributed to this report

Iran must participate in Syria Talks: Russia
Saturday, June 23rd 2012/Moscow, June 23 (IANS/RIA Novosti) Dismissing the US and British objections to Iran's participation in an international conference on Syria, Russia has said it should take part in it. "We are convinced that Iran should participate in that conference," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday. The US and Britain claim that Iran cannot be invited because "it is misbehaving," he added. "When the Americans had to ensure additional security for their troops in Iraq and Afghanistan they had no problem talking directly to Iran," Lavrov said.
He added that it was crucial to prevent bloodshed in Syria by accepting the required makeup of conference participants. The international conference on Syria is to be held in Geneva June 30.
Russia has said the conference should include all the permanent members of the UN Security Council, Syria's neighbours (Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon), as well as key players in the region (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran) and international organisations (League of Arab States, European Union). According to UN estimates, about 12,000 people have been killed in Syria since the beginning of a popular uprising against President Bashar Al Assad in March 2011.--IANS/RIA Novosti

Annan gambles Syria’s future on Putin
Jim Hoagland
The Washington Post
GENEVA
Kofi Annan must strike a deal with the devil to end the sickening atrocities being committed by the Syrian army. But the devil Annan has in mind is Vladimir Putin, not Bashar al-Assad.
That is, Annan awaits the moment when not even Putin will be able to stomach the shame of aiding and abetting the crimes against humanity being ordered by his protege in Damascus. (It is through the Syrian massacres that Assad has become Putin’s Man in Damascus. The televised image of Russia’s U.N. ambassador voting repeatedly to block pressure on Assad establishes a link in history that would not otherwise exist.)
There are times when, as degrading as it is, you have to deal with devils. But you must be sure that your devil can deliver. That is, I think, where the bet by my friend Annan will go wrong. Even if Putin would — a huge if — I doubt he could force Assad to give up power to save the regime his Alawite clan runs.
This is the “Yemeni variant,” named after the strategy the United States employed in helping to push Ali Abdullah Saleh out of the presidency in February. The most intricate refinement I have heard would have the United States and Russia agree on a list of acceptable Syrian generals to take power. The generals would promise a new constitution and elections to make peace with opponents they have been systematically murdering for 18 months.
But Putin’s grip on power is eroding at home as his economy stumbles. He shows no sign of knowing what to do about it. And for all the disappointments and shortcomings of President Obama’s foreign policy record, it looks commanding next to the absence of serious Russian initiatives in world politics for a decade. No one listens seriously to Putin on international affairs. Not even blood-stained dictators who use his country’s weapons to stay in power. Nor Iranian ayatollahs pursuing their nuclear ambitions.
It is either Annan’s sense of desperation, or of historical irony, that has brought him to the Putin variant. The desperation would spring from two brutal realities that are now clear:
●Assad is personally in charge of the bloody campaign of atrocities. His internal position is too weak for him to have allowed anyone else to take charge. His departure for Moscow is essential to ending the killing.
●The United States, Europe, Turkey and the Arab League will not intervene militarily to stay Assad’s murderous hand by enforcing the principle of the international community’s Responsibility to Protect, applied with great effect in Libya. (Turkey is the key actor in determining whether humanitarian intervention could succeed in neighboring Syria. But the civilian government in Ankara does not trust the loyalty of its army enough to give it important new responsibilities.)
The burial of the Responsibility to Protect in the ruins of Homs and Idlib would be a serious blow to Annan’s reputation. He was instrumental in getting the United Nations to adopt the principle in 2007 that states could not gravely abuse their own citizens with impunity.
“Kofi will not go on forever providing cover for others,” a European diplomat here told me. “His resignation would allow the world to see very clearly what Russia is doing — and what the United States is not doing — that makes them both complicit in the killing of a nation. But he also knows resignation is a gun with only one bullet.”
As for the irony that may underlie the Putin variant: The Russian is an expert in counterrevolution, which Assad wages with brutality. It was Putin who unraveled the Russian revolution of 1990, which seemed to herald a new era of constantly expanding freedom for the world’s oppressed.
Instead, counterrevolution has become the dominant political force of our time, as events in Ukraine, Belarus, Yemen, Egypt and Syria demonstrate. While Tunisia and Libya remain unfinished works in political transformation, authoritarian regimes elsewhere have reemerged to dim or extinguish the liberties revolution had promised.
For every action there is reaction, in politics as well as physics. Syria’s brave opposition is underlining that universal law in blood for all with eyes to see. The most significant accomplishment of Annan’s mission may well be determined by when, and how, he decides to end it.

Putin's Trip to Israel Could Challenge Washington

Simon Henderson /Washington Institute
June 22, 2012
The Russian leader's visit is expected to provide competition for U.S. diplomatic leadership on issues such as natural gas, Iran, and Syria.
On Monday and Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin will make a "working visit" to Israel at Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's invitation so that he can attend the unveiling of a monument in Netanya marking the Red Army's victory over Nazi Germany. Israelis remember that it was the Russians who liberated Auschwitz and most other death camps. In addition, more than a million Israelis originated in parts of the former Soviet Union, and Putin is said to still regard them as Russians. He is also visiting the Palestinian Authority, where he will take part in the official opening of the Russian Scientific and Cultural Center in Bethlehem. He will then go to Jordan, where he will attend the opening of a hospice for Russian Christian pilgrims at a site on the Jordan River revered as the place where Jesus was baptized.
From Moscow's perspective, such events serve to emphasize Russia's links with this part of the Middle East and further justify its diplomatic involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Putin's visit is also an opportunity for Netanyahu to explain Israel's position and develop a working relationship with the man who is likely to be Russia's leader for the foreseeable future.
Moscow also wants something more concrete from Israel: a stake in the development of newly found natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean Sea. Russia has the largest gas reserves in the world and is Europe's main supplier. Yet Israel's relatively small production levels will be boosted next year when a new field comes onstream, and again in 2017 when gas begins to flow from another field partially designated for export. Although exploration companies may need the extra capital that Russian gas giant Gazprom could provide, Israel will not want its export opportunities constrained by Moscow, which is anxious to preserve its market share. Therefore, the energy dimension of Putin's visit should not be understated: Russia's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas exports and has been hit hard by recent price drops.
What Israel wants from Russia is equally clear: more pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program, and continued restraint in arms deals with Tehran, particularly the provision of any missile system that could hamper an Israeli military strike. The fact that the latest nuclear talks were held in Moscow shows Russia's closeness to the Islamic Republic. And the failure of the talks underlines the urgency of the problem for Israel.
The fate of the Syrian regime is presumably near the top of the agenda as well. Israel will likely argue that Russia's support for Damascus only increases the chances of a bad outcome following the inevitable transition of power from Bashar al-Assad. Israel has some leverage in this regard: it will reject an expected Russian request for new drone aircraft.
More broadly, Netanyahu is said to have a good working relationship with Putin, in contrast to both men's lack of ease with President Obama. For example, the awkward body language between Putin and Obama during the G-20 summit in Mexico a few days ago was widely reported.
For the United States, Putin's trip demonstrates that there is competition for diplomatic leadership in the Middle East; in his view, Israel, the Palestinians, and Jordan have options other than Washington. Putin's direct talks with regional leaders will be aimed at forcing them to judge which partnership they prefer on certain issues. Although Washington need not be too worried about this, it should press its partners, particularly Israel, to make sure U.S. perspectives are given due prominence during the discussions.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.

Syria: The crisis has entered the skies
By Tariq AlhomayedظAsharq Al-Awsat
The reported shooting down of a Turkish warplane by al-Assad’s Air Defense is an important message to everybody in Ankara, as well as the international community, namely that the al-Assad regime – and those backing it – are prepared to fight to the last, and not just destroy Syria, but the entire region! This is also a clear sign regarding the desperate situation that the tyrant of Damascus now finds himself in.
Viewing the news in chronological order helps one to see the bigger picture, and so the bringing down of the Turkish warplane was carried out by the Air Force of the tyrant of Damascus, however the announcement of this news was issued by Al-Manar TV, which is affiliated to the Iran-backed Hezbollah organization in Lebanon. Whilst following this, the al-Assad regime immediately rushed to apologize to Ankara. This, therefore, demonstrates the complete harmony between the al-Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran, and serves as a clear message to the Turks, and others, that al-Assad is not fighting this battle alone, but that he has Iran and Hezbollah in his corner! However does al-Assad possess the capabilities to confront the Turkish forces? Certainly not, and the evidence of this is that he rushed to immediately apologize to Ankara, and this indicates that he wants to send a message regarding the “crazy option”, namely the possibility of a war against Turkey. However he is ultimately incapable of doing so, for various reasons, and this is what confirms that al-Assad is in a desperate situation.
The bringing down of the Turkish warplane is not just a message to the Turks, but this may also be an internal message to his own forces. The shooting down of the Turkish fighter jet comes one day after the defection of a Syrian Air Force pilot – along with his warplane – to Jordan, requesting political asylum there. It seems that this defection cost the al-Assad regime one warplane, and so he wanted to respond by exchanging one warplane for another, whilst also serving to raise the morale of his criminal troops. Dictators often charge to the fore during times of crises, and this is either by fabricating a larger crisis or by inciting wars in order to unify internal ranks. This is precisely what Saddam Hussein previously did, and the same goes for Khomeinist Iran. In order to confirm this in al-Assad’s case, we need only contemplate the accelerating rate of defections of officers from the ranks of his forces, as well as the fact that more and more senior officers are beginning to defect, including the defection of a senior pilot – along with his warplane – from the Syrian Air Force, whilst yesterday 4 senior officers from Aleppo also defected.
Of course, the military defections, along with the fighter jet, indicate that al-Assad’s crisis has entered the skies. This confirms that Annan’s initiative has failed, and is dead, and that there is no hope for its implementation. Whilst the increasing rate of defections indicates that the time has come to impose buffer zones or safety corridors along the Turkish and Jordanian borders with Syria, for this would speed up the collapse of the al-Assad regime, particularly in light of the news that members of al-Assad’s inner circle are moving closer to defecting. Many of those close to al-Assad have begun to move their wealth outside of Syria, and this is understandable, especially with the changing conditions on the ground no longer being in favor of the tyrant of Damascus. This has caused al-Assad to lose his temper and order the deaths of a huge number of Syrian people, and the last two days alone have witnessed a death toll of over 200!
It is clear that we are facing the beginning of the end of al-Assad, but who will perform the coup de grace, namely implement the buffer zones?