LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 12/2012

Bible Quotation for today/Slaves of God
01 Peter 02/11-17: "I appeal to you, my friends, as strangers and refugees in this world! Do not give in to bodily passions, which are always at war against the soul. Your conduct among the heathen should be so good that when they accuse you of being evildoers, they will have to recognize your good deeds and so praise God on the Day of his coming.  For the sake of the Lord submit yourselves to every human authority: to the Emperor, who is the supreme authority, and to the governors, who have been appointed by him to punish the evildoers and to praise those who do good. For God wants you to silence the ignorant talk of foolish people by the good things you do. Live as free people; do not, however, use your freedom to cover up any evil, but live as God's slaves. Respect everyone, love other believers, honor God, and respect the Emperor.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Al-Assad regime to collapse by year's end - UK ambassador to Syria/By Mina Al-Oraibi/March 11/12
The Afghanization of Syria/By Tariq Alhomayed/March 11/12
The Fate of Syria,"Cut Into Pieces and Thrown in the River"/by Raymond Ibrahim/March 11/12
Syria: It’s complicated/By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/ March 11/12
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Man in the middle/By: Matt Nash/March 11/12
Aoun's Son-In-Law Gebran Bassil, “son-in-law of the world”/By: Hazem al-Amin/March 11/12 
Eyeless in Syria/ By: Michael Young/March 11/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for March 11/12
Canada Condemns Assad’s Violent Disregard for Human Life
Peres says US, Israel agree on action against Iran
Dagan: World has time on Iranian nuke program
'Naval blockade of Iran should be considered'
World can use power of the Internet to destabilize Iran's regime
'Israel is only safe state for Mideast Christians'
U.N. Urges Iran to Reconsider Death Penalty
More rockets fired from Gaza as violence in Israel's south runs into second night
Libyan multiple-rocket launchers and SA-7 anti-air missiles fired from Gaza
Netanyahu: Israel will continue to strike anyone planning to attack its citizens
IDF strike in Gaza kills leader of Popular Resistance Committees
As Eastern Libya Calls for Autonomy, Middle East Analyst Walid Pharis Warns of Crisis
Yemen air strikes kill 15 suspected Qaeda militants
Russia, Arabs Call for End to Syria Violence
Assad tells Annan "terrorist" activity blocks solution
Syria begins pulling envoys out of EU: diplomats
Arabs urge Russia to back Syria peace plan
Escape from Baba Amr: A journalist's story
Zvi Bar'el / No hope in sight for diplomatic solution to Syria crisis
Saudi to Russia: U.N. veto on Syria allowed violence to continue
First free presidential race starts in Egypt
Syria Warns Journalists against Sneaking In
9 injured in Beirut rally clashes between Kataeb, authorities
Sami Gemayel holds cabinet responsible for Saturday’s clashes
Kataeb, NLP speak out on clashes with security forces
Rai visits churches in Jordan, stresses need for dialogue
Hezbollah rejects Syrian refugee camps in Lebanon
Officials to investigate beating of domestic worker
Number of injured rises following Tabarja building collapse
Syrian teen found hanged to death in Beirut
Lebanon vows to prevent attacks on Syria from its territory
Sleiman says zero tolerance for those behind rotten food - 8 hours ago
Beirut march stresses need to protect women from domestic violence
2 brothers-in-law found shot dead in Kesrouan
Qassem Slams Opposition, Says Cabinet Will Not Collapse
Report: Lebanon Releases 9 Armed Syrians Detained in Bekaa
Teenager Fakes his Abduction to Demand $100,000 Ransom from his Parents

9 injured in Beirut rally clashes between Kataeb, authorities
March 10, 2012/ By Martin Armstrong/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: At least five protesters and four members of the security forces were injured in clashes during a rally in Beirut by the Kataeb party opposing moves to introduce a new history curriculum, which the party says omits key events in the country’s recent past. Some 300 supporters of the Kataeb and National Liberal parties took part in the rally, which launched from the Kataeb party’s Saifi headquarters in Beirut. The rally had been planned to terminate in front of the Grand Serail but was halted by the Lebanese Army at Riyad Solh street, meters away from the government building, following clashes with the demonstrators that led to injuries on both sides. The National News Agency reported four injuries in the ranks of the security forces, adding that three were transported to a nearby hospital.
Lt.Col. Yasser Daher, a member of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), was among those injured in the scuffles. At least five supporters of the Kataeb and NLP were also injured. A Kataeb statement laid the blame squarely on the security forces. “After the Kataeb Student Interest branch organized a peaceful protest with youth from the National Liberal Party on the issue of the proposed draft of the history curriculum, the participants were surprised by the intensified security at the gathering point in front of the Grand Serail which meant a narrowing of the area, allowing no more than 100 students.”
“After the Kataeb and NLP students numbered some 1,000, security forces began beating [the students] with sticks and batons, which led to the injury of more than seven who were transferred to hospitals in the area,” the statement said. Participants on the ground blamed security forces for obstructing their demonstration.
"The Internal Security Forces [ISF] are here to protect us. We shouldn't be victims," Elio Constantine, head of the private university office of the NLP, told The Daily Star, following the confrontation.
"We live in a democracy, and we should be able to give our opinions freely."Patrick Richar, Kataeb Student Interest branch president, who organized the march, said: "Textbooks only present one vision of Lebanon. We fought for independence and what we believe in. But why is the Islamic resistance [Hezbollah] -- and not the resistance against the Syrian occupation -- only represented?"
"Textbooks only present one vision of Lebanon. We fought for independence and what we believe in." Commenting on the altercations after the march Richar stated: "The theme of the march was not appropriate for them, so they are trying to distract attention away from it by sparking an altercation. This is the only thing I can deduct."  Protesters held various signs, each calling on the government to include key events they believed needed to be included in the future history curriculum. “Your history cannot be erased with a book,” read one sing amid chants listing events from both the 1975-90 Civil War period and the spate of assassinations in the post-war period.Post-brawl chants from the students criticized the ISF use of force against peaceful demonstrators, with cries of "shame on the nation" prominent.
In late February, Metn MP Sami Gemayel, a leading figure in the Kataeb party, warned the government against approving a new history curriculum that fails to acknowledge the “Cedar Revolution” and other political phenomena in recent Lebanese history. The Kataeb party member also warned that many schools would ultimately boycott the history curriculum in their current form.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati has urged that the unified history curriculum be developed away from personal interests and instead reflect a common national view.
The Taif Accord of 1989 stipulates the need for unifying textbooks documenting the country’s history.  However, over two decades later schools still choose different versions of the past, none of which tackle the 1975-90 Civil War. Controversy was sparked last month when it was revealed that the ministerial committee tasked with developing the history curriculum had decided to omit the term “Cedar Revolution” when referring to the 2005 protests following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. - With additional reporting by Thomas El-Basha

Sami Gemayel holds cabinet responsible for Saturday’s clashes
March 10, 2012 /Kataeb bloc MP Sami Gemayel on Saturday held the Lebanese cabinet responsible for the clashes that erupted earlier today in Downtown Beirut between security forces and students – who were protesting a curriculum proposal for a Lebanese history book. The students were affiliated with the Kataeb party and the National Liberal Party (NLP).During an interview with MTV television station Gemayel said that Saturday’s protest was “the fourth [peaceful] demonstration which the Kataeb party has staged within a month and a half in different areas [of Lebanon].” “Why were the students aggressively [attacked on Saturday]?” Gemayel inquired.
-NOW Lebanon

Kataeb, NLP speak out on clashes with security forces
March 10, 2012 /The students bureaus of the Kataeb Party and the National Liberal Party issued a joint statement Saturday on the clashes earlier in the day between protesting students and security forces in Downtown Beirut. The statement said that the students intended to hold a peaceful protest against a curriculum proposal for a Lebanese history book, “but were surprised at the strict security measures taken by the security forces and the narrowing of the sit-in area so that it could contain only 100 [of the 1000] students [present at the demonstration.” “[When the students tried to gather], the security forces… began beating them with batons and injured at least seven students.”The debate over a standardized account of Lebanon’s modern history has been ongoing for more than two decades. The Taif Accord, a reconciliation pact passed in 1989 to end the country’s civil war, called for the implementation of a unified curriculum. The curriculum by the current cabinet does not mention the term “Cedar Revolution,” the 2005 protest movement that rose following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and demanded the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.-NOW Lebanon

Beirut march stresses need to protect women from domestic violence
March 10, 2012/ By Martin Armstrong/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Around 100 people marched from Sassine Square, Ashrafieh, to Parliament in Downtown Beirut calling for increased protection for women from domestic violence.
To honor the memory of female victims of domestic violence in Lebanon, estimated at around one person a month, participants, wearing black and carrying mock coffins, held their march in silence.
One sign read, “Every month, a woman dies due to domestic violence. Read the law for the protection of women now.”
“We live in a patriarchal society. I fear if this issue is not confronted now, it will be forgotten,” Melissa Ajamian, 25, an American University of Beirut graduate student told The Daily Star, as she walked alongside fellow protesters in the march organized NGOs KAFA and Nasawiya.
"This is not only a women's cause," said Joseph Daher, a 27-year-old Syrian PhD student based in Beirut, as he walked toward the Grand Serail. "It's a cause for every human being to strive for equal rights. It's most important to build awareness among schools and the youth."
Maya Ammar, media officer at KAFA, expressed the difficulties faced in confronting the issue of domestic violence.
“Domestic violence is a widespread phenomenon, not only in Lebanon, but throughout the world. The extent to which it is present in society is impossible to tell since it is always difficult to talk about violence emanating from intimate relationships,” she said.
“Victims are often scared to speak out since there is a lack of trust in authorities – they know they won’t be protected,” Ammar added.
The march was the fifth in a series of protests following a series of leaks from Parliament which has been reviewing a domestic violence draft law submitted by KAFA in April 2010. Central to the proposed legislation is the establishment of legal penalties for men who physically or sexually abuse their wives. Currently no such legislation exists. Matters of family and personal status law are controlled by religious courts that usually rule in favor of men.
Critics fear that the parliamentary committee entrusted with reviewing the draft law – made up of eight MPs, seven men and one woman – have made numerous alterations that render its aims futile.
A central complaint is the expansion of the draft law that focuses specifically on protecting women from domestic violence to a general law incorporating all forms of domestic violence.
Nadine Moawad, a founding member of Nasawiya, said that this alteration reflected that “we still have a long way to go to realize the specific problems faced by women in our society.”
Further points of contention include the removal of clauses outlawing spousal rape and calling for the transfer of authority in matters of personal status law from religious to civil courts.
Ammar described such amendments as “dangerous” and called for religious authorities to “stop abusing their power and interfering in issues of family violence.”
Moawad said the establishment of “one civil unified law for all women is an imperative.”
“Unfortunately, the country does not appear ready for this,” Moawad added.
Indeed, as the marchers made their way toward their destination of the Grand Serail, they were prevented from doing so at Place Sheik Abdel-Rahman El-Hout.
"It's public grounds. We should be able to pass. This always happens," Moawad said.
“I fear there's little room for optimism. If the amendments [to the domestic violence law] do not reflect what we're striving for then we'll escalate our protests – and we won't take it silently," she added.
Meanwhile, Farah Salka, coordinator at Nasawiya, acknowledging the difficulty of the struggle, urged more people to speak out.
“It is not an easy process to move past that with a blink of an eye,” she said.
“The efforts should be two-fold: legislation and implementation of fair laws in addition to sensitizing the society, women and men, that the right thing to do is to speak up. And by speaking up, they should be protected and not have more risk on their lives.”“Laws alone are not enough and empowerment alone is not enough. They complete each other and none is a priority over the other.”

Aoun's Son-In-Law Gebran Bassil, “son-in-law of the world”
Hazem al-Amin, March 9, 2012
A son-in-law occupies a tense spot in the family. This has nothing to do with the harmony accompanying this addition to the family; rather, this tension predates his arrival and may lead to either harmony or trouble. In either case, it still is tension since the status of the son-in-law gives its holder robbery possibilities and results in caution and confusion he is permanently seeking to dissipate.
Things are more complicated in the political family. Politics cannot be legally inherited; it is not a land plot, the property of which is transmitted according to the inheritance laws. Hence, the caution the son-in-law enlists is multiplied, as stories and rumors abound about the status of the son-in-law in the political family. For instance, let us remember the controversial status of Saddam Hussein’s sons-in-law, Hussein and Saddam Kamel, whom Hussein’s son Oudai killed with his own hands. Their story contains a wealth of indications to the status of the son-in-law and the tension he causes in his capacity as a potential heir. The same holds true for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. By that we mean the president’s brother-in-law Syrian Army Chief of Staff Asaf Chawkat and the unverified accounts, which are almost true, about his status in the family and the permanent misunderstanding in this respect between him and the president’s brother, between him and the president, and between sister and brother as a result.
In reality, these examples of sons-in-law (or brothers-in-law) moving from security and the military to politics are not the only sign of tension embodied by the status of the son-in-law in the public realms. In the times of the Arab Spring, we can move from the “security son-in-law” to the “son-in-law of the revolution”. This was the case with Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdel Salam, who is the son-in-law of Sheikh Rashed al-Ghannushi, the leader of the Nahda Movement that won the post-revolution elections. In Abdel Salam’s case, the son-in-law does not come from the security milieu; rather, he comes from a lineage of sheikhs that has taken to raising sons-in-law as voracious sons. Compensation efforts are also made, as the sheikh uses his position in the shape of efforts invested in the son-in-law. These efforts take him out of his real original status and depict him as a new, spoilt son, albeit one that is still imperfect.
We can move from the son-in-law of the revolution” to the “son-in-law of the state” as was the case with our former Foreign Minister Fares Boueiz, son-in-law of late President Elias Hraoui. We can also view the son-in-law as a temporary son, as was the case with our former Minister of the Interior Elias al-Murr when he was former President Emile Lahoud’s son-in-law. In this context, one can say that the son-in-law in conventional families with entrenched traditions is no more and no less than a son-in-law, and is not a potential heir. Have we ever heard, for instance, a son-in-law of the Khazen, Jumblatt, al-Assaad or Osseiran families compete with them on their family turf?
However, Lebanon has come up with a novelty with regard to sons-in-law. Indeed, we have moved from the “security son-in-law”, the “son-in-law of the revolution” and the “son-in-law of the state” to the “son-in-law of the Movement”. In this sense, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil is not only General Michel Aoun’s son-in-law; rather, he is the son-in-law of the whole Free Patriotic Movement. This is a novelty indeed, as the missions entrusted to the man transformed a semi-urban and semi-modern social movement into a family earmarked for serving the future of its son-in-law. The complaining, dissents and cracks Bassil left within the Aounist family is linked to the effects caused by the ambitious son-in-law who has come into the small family. In this sense, Bassil is the son-in-law of the Free Patriotic Movement rather than General Aoun’s.
Bassil’s latest statements about his refusing to shelter Syrian refugees are what drove me to try to look behind the petty politics, as the mistake here predates politics. I don’t know why I felt that, at this moment, he was a son-in-law at his apogee, not a minister.
This is not a satire of the son-in-law. In the end, we are all sons-in-law … and at this moment, we are all lumpish.
*This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Friday March 9, 2012

Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Man in the middle
Matt Nash, Now Lebanon/March 10, 2012
Prime Minister Najib Mikati scored another win recently by mediating a dispute within Dar al-Fatwa, the country’s top Sunni institution, but analysts told NOW Lebanon his record as PM is doing little to boost his popularity on the so-called “Sunni street.”
Mikati stepped up to the plate in late January 2011 by announcing his candidacy to replace Saad Hariri as PM after Hezbollah and its allies collapsed Hariri’s government by resigning. Sunnis across the country reacted to Mikati with anger, staging violent protests. Many derided Mikati and labeled him “Hezbollah’s PM.”
However, the billionaire businessman from Tripoli has so far spent his time in office pursuing what Lebanese blogger Mustapha Hamoui dubs “Mikati centrism.” The Dar al-Fatwa dispute is arguably a classic example. Unlike the Maronite Church, Dar al-Fatwa is part of the state and answers directly to the Sunni prime minister. Because of that, Dar al-Fatwa has long been subservient to politicians. In the 1990s, then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was able to concentrate his influence within the organization by reducing the number of people who could vote for the Higher Islamic Council, the body within Dar al-Fatwa that selects the country’s Grand Mufti, Lebanon’s highest Sunni religious authority. According to Hilal Khashan, a professor in the American University of Beirut’s Department of Political Studies and Public Administration, the current Grand Mufti, Mohammad Qabbani, came to the post first as acting Mufti following the 1989 assassination of his predecessor, Hassan Khaled. Hariri then pushed for Qabbani to permanently keep the role, and “he served Hariri very well and supported his political position,” Khashan said. Qabbani’s support passed on to Hariri’s son, Saad, after the former’s 2005 assassination. Friction began, however, when parliament voted to elect Mikati PM as Saad Hariri’s replacement. Qabbani received Mikati “and gave him Sunni political cover,” said Ahmad Moussalli, a professor of political studies at AUB. This, everyone interviewed for this article said, infuriated Hariri, and Qabbani started distancing himself from the former’s Future Movement.
The Mufti then received a delegation from Hezbollah on the same day representatives from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon travelled to Beirut to give Lebanese authorities copies of the court’s indictment, which pointed the finger at four members of the Party of God for involvement in Rafik Hariri’s murder. Qabbani also visited with Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon, further angering the Future Movement.
Splitting from Future has also divided Dar al-Fatwa, and late last month the spat went public as Qabbani called for elections to the Higher Islamic Council without consulting its members, and some members of the council responded by having a meeting but not inviting Qabbani.
Mikati stepped in and convinced Qabbani to postpone the elections, thus reducing tensions. He’s also called for a consensus solution to reforming Dar al-Fatwa. According to Moussalli, former PM Fouad Siniora, who was not available for an interview, is pushing a reform plan that would essentially strip the Mufti of many of his powers, rendering him a “figurehead.” Qabbani obviously opposes this plan.
Here Mikati is once again seeking quiet compromise over confrontation, as he did with paying Lebanon’s share of funding to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. However, his ability to maneuver political minefields is not translating into widening support among the Sunnis, who remain beholden to Hariri despite his nearly year-long absence from the country, everyone interviewed for this article said.
A primary reason the Sunnis are not rallying behind Mikati, according to An-Nahar columnist Hani Nsouli, is anger over his “disassociation” policy toward the violence in neighboring Syria. Sunnis, he said, harbor resentment toward the regime stemming from Syria’s 30-year military presence in Lebanon. Further, they see their co-religionist being killed by an Alawite regime and simply “cannot stay neutral,” he said. Everyone NOW Lebanon spoke with for this article said that Hariri is weakened by his absence and because he has allegedly stopped doling out political patronage money. However, because of his ties to Saudi Arabia and the power of his assassinated father as a symbol, he remains the sect’s paramount leader. Nsouli painted the Saudis as kingmakers when it comes to Lebanon’s Sunnis. He said no politicians can rise without their backing and argued that as the 2013 elections approach, they’ll ramp up their support for Hariri again. Moreover, Khashan said, it does not seem like Mikati is even trying to rise up as a replacement. “Mikati’s a technocrat not a politician,” he said. “He’s a businessman. His policy is to not make waves, not make trouble.”

Qassem Slams Opposition, Says Cabinet Will Not Collapse
by Naharnet /Hizbullah deputy Chief Sheikh Naim Qassem stressed on Saturday that the cabinet will not collapse despite everything, the National News Agency reported. “March 14 is struggling with its political options and their approach to developments in Lebanon and Syria,” Qassem said. He slammed the March 14-led opposition saying: “Isn’t it time for the opposition to review their approach and rectify its options?” Qassem noted that the March 14 forces expected the regime in Syria would collapse but they failed in their approach. He also lashed out at U.S. ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly, stressing: “Lebanon will not follow the U.S. administration’s orders… Lebanon is capable of taking its own decisions.”Connelly urged Lebanese authorities on Tuesday to provide the humanitarian needs of all Syrian refugees, including dissenters and deserters of the Free Syrian Army. “We refuse setting up refugee camps in Lebanon for the Syrians entering the country, because it will turn into a military base against Syria and against Lebanon eventually,” Qassem noted. According to the U.N. refugee agency, about 2,000 people have fled to Lebanon in recent days, many from Homs and particularly its opposition stronghold of Baba Amr. A large number have sought refuge in the Bekaa region with family members already living there. Others headed from the Bekaa further north to the coastal Lebanese town of Tripoli or to the Wadi Khaled area, where the majority of the 7,058 Syrians registered in Lebanon as refugees are living. Qassem reiterated that the resistance is “doing great” and ready to confront the Israeli threats. “If it wasn’t for the resistance’s readiness, Israel would’ve occupied Lebanon again a long time ago,” the Hizbullah official said.

Hezbollah rejects Syrian refugee camps in Lebanon
March 10, 2012/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah’s number two Sheikh Naim Qassem rejected Saturday the idea of establishing refugee camps for Syrians fleeing violence in their country, saying these would ultimately pose a threat to Lebanon and its neighbor. “We cannot accept refugee camps for Syrians in Lebanon because any camp for Syrians in Lebanon will turn to a military pocket that will be used as a launch pad against Syria and then against Lebanon,” the Hezbollah deputy secretary-general said during a political conference in Ghobeiri in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
“These sorts of groups pass into continents and countries and have no loyalty to any one country. They move holding several nationalities from one place to the next. What would Lebanon stand to gain by allowing some to turn it into a place or conduit to harm Syria and Lebanon at the same time?” the Hezbollah official said.
Qassem’s comments came a day after Lebanon pledged to prevent any attacks from its territory against its neighbor. Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel-Karim Ali has repeatedly demanded that Lebanon tighten security and prevent arms-smuggling across the poorly demarcated, porous border.
In late 2011, March 14 coalition officials hinted that Lebanon should consider establishing a Syrian refugee camp in north Lebanon to accommodate the constant flow of Syrians fleeing the crackdown in their country. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates there are around 7,000 registered refugees in the north of Lebanon. The U.N. body also says there is a growing population of Syrian refugees living south of Beirut, totaling around 4,000 people, who the organization is monitoring and looking to offer aid to.
Although rejecting the establishment of refugee camps, Qassem said there were standard conventions of offering humanitarian assistance that did not require the need for setting up camps.
Qassem also accused the United States of meddling in Lebanese affairs by trying to have Beirut protest armed Syrians against Damascus.
“We saw how the American ambassador overstepped her limits and wanted to order Lebanon to protect armed Syrians against the regime,” Qassem said.
“To [U.S. Ambassador Maura] Connelly we say: the days that the U.S. administration issues orders in Lebanon are over. Now is the time when Lebanon takes its own decisions,” he added.
Last week, Connelly called for the protection of all disarmed Syrians, including members of the Free Syrian Army, during a meeting with Interior Minister Marwan Charbel.
She also recognized Lebanon’s efforts in providing assistance to Syrian refugees fleeing violence in their country and encouraged the government to continue its cooperation with the international community in providing humanitarian assistance and "safety of all Syrians who have fled to Lebanon, including dissenters and deserters.”
During the conference in the southern suburbs, the Hezbollah official also slammed the March 14 alliance, saying the opposition grouping had made the wrong choices.
“Those who wagered on developments in Syria have failed miserably. March 14 are muddling their political choices and proposals and is moving from failure to failure at the Lebanese and Syrian levels as well as at the level of the project they are contemplating,” Qassem said. The Hezbollah official said the opposition group needed to rethink its strategy.
“They were expecting that there would be a regime change in Syria and that this would have an impact in Lebanon to change the equation in Lebanon from the outside,” he said, adding: “They didn’t get the power from the inside, nor did they get it from the outside. Just as they failed from 2005 to 2011, today they have failed in their bet on Syria and have indulged with circles outside the interest of Lebanon.”
On the subject of the Lebanese government, Qassem said the Cabinet was needed and would continue. “Everyone sees this government as a necessity for the parliamentary elections,” he said. Qassem also spoke on the divisive issue of extra-budgetary spending by various governments, particularly under former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. The Hezbollah officials said his group was for a legal resolution over the spending issue but “we cannot give approval to spending that is not clear and illegal.” The Cabinet decided Friday to task Prime Minister Najib Mikati with drafting a new plan to deal with the issue of extra-budgetary government between 2006 and 2010.

Rai visits churches in Jordan, stresses need for dialogue
March 10, 2012/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai visited ancient churches in Jordan, where he praised the country’s diversity and openness, Lebanon’s National News agency reported Saturday. “The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is distinguished by its spirituality and open way of living,” he said, referring to peaceful co-existence between the various religious sects, including the Christian minority. “There, modern history is based on the ancient past,” he said. Rai’s visit to Jordan is one of two regional pastoral visits by the influential Maronite leader in March. He is also expected tour Qatar later in the month. In Jordan, Rai congratulated the directorate of antiquities as well as the tourism authorities for working to preserve the historical sites.
“Those who don’t let their history live, don’t live in the present,” he said. Rai concluded by saying: “These Christian holy sites were not lost in history. Rather, they are in the hearts of Jordanian people, and at the heart of the country’s culture and civilization.”Rai, who succeeded Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir early 2011, has been on both local and international pastoral visits since his election, including a one-month visit to the United States in October.

Assad tells Annan "terrorist" activity blocks solution March 10, 2012/
By Alistair Lyon/Daily Star /BEIRUT: President Bashar Assad told U.N./Arab League envoy Kofi Annan on Saturday that no political solution was possible in Syria while "terrorist" groups were destabilizing the country. "Syria is ready to make a success of any honest effort to find a solution for the events it is witnessing," state news agency SANA quoted Assad as telling his guest.
"No political dialogue or political activity can succeed while there are armed terrorist groups operating and spreading chaos and instability," the Syrian leader said after about two hours of talks with the former U.N. secretary-general. There was no immediate comment from Annan after the meeting, aimed at halting bloodshed that has cost thousands of lives since a popular uprising erupted a year ago.
While they discussed the crisis, Syrian troops were assaulting the northwestern city of Idlib, a rebel bastion. "Regime forces have just stormed into Idlib with tanks and heavy shelling is now taking place," said an activist contacted by telephone, the sound of explosions punctuating the call. Sixteen rebel fighters, seven soldiers and four civilians were killed in the Idlib fighting, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which said 15 other people, including three soldiers, had been killed in violence elsewhere.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who met Annan in Cairo earlier in the day, told the Arab League his country was "not protecting any regime", but did not believe the Syrian crisis could be blamed on one side alone. He called for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid access, but Qatar and Saudi Arabia sharply criticized Moscow's stance. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who has led calls for Assad to be isolated and for Syrian rebels to be armed, said a ceasefire was not enough. Syrian leaders must be held to account and political prisoners freed, he declared. "We must send a message to the Syrian regime that the world's patience and our patience has run out, as has the time for silence about its practices," Sheikh Hamad said. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said shortcomings in the U.N. Security Council, where Russia and China have twice vetoed resolutions on Syria, had allowed the killing to go on.
Their position, he said, "gave the Syrian regime a license to extend its brutal practices against the Syrian people".
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which are both ruled by autocrats and espouse a strict version of Sunni Islam, are improbable champions of democracy in Syria. Riyadh has an interest in seeing Assad fall because this could weaken its Shi'ite regional rival Iran, which has been allied with Syria since 1980. International rifts have paralyzed action on Syria, with Russia and China opposing Western and Arab calls for Assad, who inherited power from his father nearly 12 years ago, to quit. Lavrov told Arab ministers a new U.N. Security Council resolution had a chance of being approved if it was not driven by a desire to let armed rebels take control of Syria's streets. The United States has drafted a fresh resolution, but the State Department said on Friday it was not optimistic that its text would be accepted by the Council.
France says it will oppose any measure that holds the Syrian government and its foes equally responsible for the bloodshed.
Despite their differences, Lavrov and Arab ministers said they had agreed on the need for an end to violence in Syria.
They also called for unbiased monitoring of events there, opposition to foreign intervention, delivery of humanitarian aid and support for Annan's peace efforts.Annan also planned to meet Syrian dissidents before leaving Damascus on Sunday. He has called for a political solution, but the opposition says the time for dialogue is long gone. "We support any initiative that aims to stop the killings, but we reject it if it is going to give Bashar more time to break the revolution and keep him in power," Melham al-Droubi, a Saudi-based member of the Muslim Brotherhood and of the exiled Syrian National Council, told Reuters by telephone. Annan's trip to Damascus followed a violent day in which activists said Assad's forces killed at least 72 people as they bombarded parts of the rebellious city of Homs and sought to deter demonstrators and crush insurgents elsewhere.
Decisive victory has eluded both sides in an increasingly deadly struggle that began as a mainly peaceful protest movement a year ago and now appears to be sliding into civil war.
The United Nations estimates that Syrian security forces have killed well over 7,500 people. Syria said in December that "terrorists" had killed more than 2,000 soldiers and police.
Russia, one of Syria's few foreign friends and its main arms supplier, could play a pivotal role in any negotiated solution.
Chinese and Russian reluctance to approve any U.N. resolution on Syria stems partly from their fear that it could be used to justify a Libya-style military intervention, although Western powers deny any intention to go to war again in Syria. A Russian diplomat said this week Assad was battling al Qaeda-backed militants, including 15,000 foreign fighters who would seize cities if Syrian troops withdrew.
The Syrian opposition denies any al Qaeda role in the uprising, but Islamists are among rebels who have taken up arms against Assad under the banner of the Free Syrian Army.
Qatar's Sheikh Hamad chided Russia for accepting the Syrian government's portrayal of insurgents as armed gangs. "There are no armed gangs, the systematic killing came from the Syrian government side for many months. After that the people were forced to defend themselves so the regime labelled them armed gangs," he told the Arab League meeting. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet Lavrov in New York on Monday when the Security Council holds a special meeting on Arab revolts, with Syria likely to be in focus.

Libyan multiple-rocket launchers and SA-7 anti-air missiles fired from Gaza
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 10, 2012/ The Palestinian Jihad Islami escalated its attacks on a dozen Israel towns and villages Saturday, firing up to 100 rockets on the second day of their revenge for Israel’s targeted killing of Zuheir al-Qaisi, head of the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza, before he could carry out his second terrorist attack from Sinai. The volleys Saturday, March 10, included Grad multiple rocket launchers mounted on vehicles and SA-7 anti-air rockets, the Russian version of the American Stinger, smuggled from Libya.
Israel’s military kept its operations for suppressing those attacks low key although Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz had vowed to hit back hard. Both Gantz and Defense Minister Ehud Barak who toured the afflicted locations warned that the current round of missile fire from Gaza was not over. Barak added that the threat of another attack from Sinai was not over either.
In expectation of further escalation, an Iron Dome anti-missile battery was posted in Ashdod Saturday night. The two batteries in Beersheba and Ashdod were estimated to have intercepted 25-30 incoming Palestinian rockets. Police commissioner Yohanan Danino raised the terror alert nationwide to one level short of the highest, while southern Israel remained at top preparedness for the missile barrages to continue.Schools in Beersheba (Israel’s seventh largest city of 200,000), Ashkelon, Ashdod, Gan Yavneh, Netivot, Kiryat Gat and Ofakim are closed Sunday until further notice, keeping hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren at home and close to bomb shelters. Citizens were given a Homeland Command number to call in emergencies: 1207.
Israeli air strikes killed 15 Palestinian combatants in two days – all of them combatants. Twelve were members of Jihad Islami missile teams; the rest Resistance Committees operatives. The last of eight air force attacks hit a missile launcher and crew in the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanun Saturday night. So far, although 18 civilians were injured, there have been no fatalities or direct hits to Israeli homes or buildings. However the terrorists are constantly widening the radius of locations within range by procuring increasingly sophisticated weaponry.
At the same time, debkafile’s military sources report, Israeli leaders are this time holding the IDF back from an all-out offensive to relieve a million civilians living under on-and-off harassment for more than a decade out of three considerations:
1. Washington is engaged in secret diplomacy through the Egyptian military junta to get a ceasefire in place before the violence escalates any further – and Israel is obliged to employ more effective measures to stop it. Egypt on the quiet is trying to force the Palestinian Jihad Islami to stop shooting missiles, without much result. This is not surprising given that this Palestinian group was created by Iran which funds and arms it.
2. The IDF command was taken by surprise by the extreme reprisal triggered by the death of the Committees’ chief Zuheir al-Qaisi, one of the planners of the terrorist ambush of August 2011 on Highway 12 to Eilat which killed 8 Israelis close to the Israeli border with Egyptian Sinai. The day before he was taken out, two mortars were fired from Gaza and, before that ,missiles kept coming at a slow trickle all the time.
3. The Israeli Air Force is forced to be a lot more cautious since various Palestinian groups, including Hamas, obtained from Libya large quantities of shoulder-launched SA-7 anti-air missiles (Man Portable Air Defense Systems or MANPADS) which are the Russian version of the American Stinger. Israeli jets must first demolish these rockets before they regain a free hand for counter-terror operations in the Hamas-ruled enclave. Last week, because of the new menace, Israeli commercial airlines were told to stop flying ageing ATR 72 and ATR 42 turboprop planes, because the “C Music” counter-missile devices equipped with high-tech sensors and computers are designed for jets - not these old workhorses. The advanced weaponry flowing into the Gaza Strip from Libya in the past six months (first reported by debkafile on Nov. 11, 2011) is becoming increasingly important in the terrorist war Palestinian terrorists are waging against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Tehran has supplied the Gaza extremists under its auspices with its own Fajr rockets which can reach Tel Aviv.

Syria: It’s complicated
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Alawsat
The Russians, the Americans, the Arab League chief, the Secretary General of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and others have all condemned what is happening in Syria, but then they take a deep breath and say: it’s complicated, and speak of fears of civil war and sectarian strife and a sensitive region! These are all excuses to avoid military intervention to rescue the Syrian people, who are being slaughtered whilst the entire world is watching. In fact, if these excuses are genuine, then this represents reasons for intervention, not vice versa. For the situation is tense and becoming increasingly dangerous, and we must nip this in the bud. This dangerous situation in Syria, and the genuine possibility of civil war, justifies intervention, not the opposite. Thus, the international community would become a positive force, imposing conditions to prevent any acts of vengeance, sectarian wars or partisan disputes. This is what has happened in Libya; were it not for the unified international stance which imposed its own conditions and commitments on all opposition parties, Libya would have drowned in tribal and regional disputes over power and influence, whilst there would have been even more reprisals. Even what Libya is witnessing today with regards to controversy and attempts to divide the state are doomed to failure, thanks to the international commitment to the new Libyan state and leadership.
The situation in Syria is extremely dangerous: the regime is massacring the people and different powers and forces are being formed in the midst of a power vacuum. When the regime eventually collapses, the country will become a battlefield, with everyone fighting for power. At this time, it will be difficult to call for international forces to intervene to extinguish the fires and prevent civil or sectarian war, in which case the region will be facing an even more dangerous situation. Everybody who is speaking about their fears for the future of Syria are either attempting to justify their inaction, like the West, or attempting to frighten others against intervention, like Iraq or Iraq. Syria has been in a state of revolution for almost a year, and this revolutionary fire will not be extinguished except with the ouster of the regime. Everybody knows that this regime has no chance of surviving, despite its attempts to cling to power through bloodshed and violence. Even Turkey – which is reluctant to intervene in Syria without an international mandate and a broader military partnership – feels that it is paying a price for this prolonged crisis. The Syrian and Iranian regimes have succeeded in activating the Kurdish separatists residing in Iraq and Syria to carry out terrorist attacks on the Turkish territories. They are responsible for fuelling the crises in the Gulf region as well as threatening to sabotage the domestic situation in Lebanon. What is even worse is the fact that the Syrian regime has succeeded in deepening the mutual mistrust and hatred between different Syrian sects, carrying out sectarian massacres and playing up sectarian fears. Had the Syrian regime been toppled last year, we would now be facing a new less-complicated reality for the Syrian people and the region as a whole.

Al-Assad regime to collapse by year's end - UK ambassador to Syria
By Mina Al-Oraibi/London, Asharq Al-Awsat – In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, British Ambassador to Syria, Simon Collis, revealed his views on the Syrian crisis, the latest developments on the ground, and scenarios for the collapse of the al-Assad regime. Collis, who was recently recalled to London, after Britain took the decision to close its embassy in Syria due to the deteriorating security situation in the country, has been an outspoken critic of the al-Assad regime. He was appointed British ambassador to Syria in 2007, having previously held diplomatic posts in Bahrain, Tunisia, India, Jordan, and Dubai. He previously served as British ambassador to Qatar between 2005 and 2007.
The following is the full text of the interview:
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Syrian Deputy Oil Minister Abdo Hussameddin announced his defection from the al-Assad regime on Thursday, how importance is this defection? Do you expect more Syrian officials to defect from the Damascus regime?
[Collis] This is possible, and I believe this [defection] is important as an indicator of the course that events are heading in. There are honest people who are hold positions within this government and regime who feel ashamed of the actions taken by this regime against its own people and who are no longer willing to be considered associated with this, even indirectly.
Nobody considers the deputy oil minister to be part of the [al-Assad] killing machine, even indirectly; however he was part of the government. Therefore it is clear that he is someone who listened to his conscience and his heart and decided that the time had come, despite the dangers to his family, to take the decision [to defect], and I believe that this is something that we must respect and welcome.
As for whether this will lead to other defections, we must wait and see. He is the most senior defector, but he is not the first. As we see, things are developing, and I think yes, we can expect more people to take such steps. I think there are many others who must share his feelings but do not find themselves able to take action out of fear. However when fear retreats or the pressures of these events that cannot be accepted intensify, this is when we can expect others to take this courageous step.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] When you were in Damascus you were in contact with people in the government as well as members of the Syrian opposition. Did you ever feel that Syrian officials wanted to defect but were afraid to take this step?
[Collis] Yes, I spoke to former ministers in the previous government which was dissolved last year, and some of these figures are respectable figures who took up positions due to their experience as technocrats, and not necessarily because they were Baathists.
When speaking to them, it was clear they did not want to be linked to a regime that suppresses its own people, detaining, killing and torturing civilians. This government was dissolved, so they did not resign. However there are other high-ranking ministers who know that this regime no longer represents a way forward. Perhaps in the past they believed they…were playing a role in developing the country, however they have discovered that this is not possible under the current leadership.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What options are on the table for Syria? Some people believe it will be possible to reach a deal with al-Assad like that enacted in Yemen, ensuring a safe exit for the Syrian present in return for him handing over power, whereas others believe that only a military solution is possible. Is there a third option?
[Collis] I believe there is interaction between the military option and the political option, however what is happening on the ground will, of course, influence the chances of a political solution. In the end, the solution must be a political one; any crisis such as this can only be solved through a political framework. The question is how to create the conditions for this political framework. When Britain was working with France and the US last year to encourage the [Syrian] regime to work towards transition of power based upon negotiations, we were clear that the problem that must be resolved was a Syrian – Syrian problem, not a Syrian – Western one. We felt it was necessary to take certain steps to make sure that a political solution was possible [in Syria], such as [the regime] freeing political detainees, ending the killing, mass arrests, and torture, and allowing opposition figures to freely meet and organize their operations as well as allowing the media freedom and accepting the continuation of peaceful protests. These were all proposals we put forward. We explained that so long as security operations were ongoing, we did not believe it would be possible to make progress in the political process, for it is not possible to reconcile the two tracks. When we look at what Turkey tried to achieve after last Ramadan, this was based on the same thinking, and it met with the same results, as the regime completely ignored this. After this, there was the Arab League initiative which essentially put forward the same thing. Until now, these same issues are on the table, which were defined by the Arab League initiative, which includes the withdrawal of all heavy weaponry, the release of detainees, and allowing journalists to enter [into Syria]. These are the issues – not the conditions – that will determine the political process. However the regime has not shown any signs of good faith with regards to any of these plans, with the exception of the Arab initiative which the Syrian government signed but ultimately failed to implement any of its terms. If the regime does not change its behavior, it is difficult to know how we will reach a political solution, however this must remain our political objective.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan is heading to Damascus, with the same issues and problems and Syrian intransigence. Do you have any hope that his visit will be successful or have any concrete results?
[Collis] We must wait and see, we welcome his appointment [as UN and Arab League special envoy to Syria] and we support his visit. He has been appointed jointly by the UN and the Arab League, and this is important. The task which he has been entrusted includes working to implement the Arab League initiative that the Syrian government itself signed. What is required for the Syrian government to do is implement what they have repeatedly said they are prepared to do, but which until now they have failed to do. As for ourselves and our partners, we will do what we can to help, which includes increasing pressure on the [al-Assad] regime, increasing its political and economic isolation, as well as working to ensure accountability, which is important. It is necessary that the Syrian army and security leadership and officers who are carrying out the orders of the Syrian leadership understand now – not in a few years’ time – that they will be held accountable for what they are doing today.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] However there is a general awareness that the decision to transfer the Syrian file to the International Criminal Court [ICC] requires a resolution from the UN Security Council, which is unlikely thanks to the Russian and Chinese veto. In this case, do you think this threat will truly serve as a deterrent to the Syrian regime’s forces? Isn’t it true that many of the al-Assad regime loyalists are of the view that they are facing a “kill or be killed” scenario?
[Collis] Yes…we are working with the Syrians and Arab organizations to ensure that lawyers meet with victims of violence and suppression and document their evidence and testimonies so that this is ready, whether this is for the ICC or another judicial organization, it could even be for the Syrian courts themselves in the future. However we must work to undermine this confidence of the Syrian leadership that does not think it will be held accountable. In addition, it is essential that the international community and the Syrian opposition send a message that the situation is not necessarily as it seems, that the choice is not kill or be killed. It is important that the Syrian opposition clarifies that its vision for the future of Syria has a place for all Syrians, regardless of background and sectarian factors.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] What about political background?
[Collis] One of the most difficult things for any country or people to do is to draw up a transitional plan, but this transition is necessary and will include people from every party, including members of the [Syrian] armed and security forces. It will be important to find a space for them in a new democratic state that is committed to the law. It will not be easy, but Syria is not the first country to face these challenges; many countries have faced similar challenges, and some have been more successful than others in reaching a peaceful path, most prominently South Africa.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Let’s talk about Russia. Moscow has announced its refusal to change its position on Syria. How can we reach an agreement with Russia to pressure the al-Assad regime to stop the violence?
[Collis] We must look at China and Russia. Following the second veto at the UN Security Council, I spoke to senior Chinese officials and my attention was drawn to the fact that China has only used its veto 8 times since it joined the Security Council, 6 times on issues related to Taiwan, which is something that everybody recognizes is a red-line for Beijing, and now it is has used this veto twice on Syria. I do not think they are keen to continue this approach. I do not think there is any reason for the al-Assad regime to think it has a blank check from China, which is a permanent member of the Security Council and which has numerous interests in the region, including regional stability. In spite of their position on foreign intervention in domestic issues, they also have important economic interests in the region, and they must take into account whether China’s national interests are served by supporting a regime that is doomed to failure, at the expense of their relations with many countries in the region and the wider international arena.
As for Russia, following the second veto the Foreign Secretary [William Hague] clarified that we will remain in contact with Russia on this issue. If they continue to support a regime that is carrying out crimes in their own country, they will do this under an intense media and diplomatic spotlight, and we will talk publicly about what they are doing and the results of their actions. They are now in a very awkward position; for it is embarrassing to defend actions that are indefensible. However at the same time, we will continue to talk with them and stay in touch with them. Perhaps the draft resolutions about the humanitarian situation in Syria which is presently being discussed in New York [by the Security Council] may be an opportunity for cooperation. We are cooperating with the Russians wherever we can at the Security Council, and if we felt that we had reached the limit of this cooperation we can work outside the Security Council via groups such as the Friends of Syria group and with countries with similar positions to our own.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] In your own opinion, what is the point of no return that would signal the end of the Syrian regime? To what extent will economic factors play in this process?
[Collis] I think that it is impossible to know when we will reach the point of no return, but we are now witnessing a decline in the support for the regime as a result of the increasing number of people – like the former Syrian deputy oil minister – who understand that there is no future for Syria or themselves and their families so long as this regime remains in power. This decline in support will mean that the Syrian regime has become increasingly fragile and may collapse at any time.
The same thing is happening now amongst the [Syrian] businessmen; they are now aware that there is no future for themselves, their families or their companies and businesses under this regime. They may not feel that they can move at the present time, but if they see the opportune moment, this may happen quickly.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think the collapse of the al-Assad regime will happen anytime soon?
[Collis] This is possible, but nobody knows. I have publicly stated that I doubt this situation can continue beyond the current year; perhaps it can continue beyond this, however I personally doubt it. The question is not will the regime collapse, but when. This is something I am sure of.
As for the economy, we are seeing increasing pressure [on the government]; the people cannot afford to heat their homes or fuel their cars. The official cost of substances that are subsidized by the government have increased, whilst due to corruption the original cost of such goods has also increased. Inflation is on the rise, and the Syrian pound is losing its value. The [Syrian] economy is collapsing, and it is collapsing due to the actions of this regime. It cannot carry out such major security operations across the country and expect the economy to continue as normal. Tourism has collapsed whilst investment has stopped; in addition to this consumer confidence has declined, as has trade with neighboring countries…the sanctions have also had an effect on this.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] Do you think the Syrian economy will collapse before the end of the year?
[Collis] I believe that the continued collapse of the economy clearly demonstrates, to the Syrian people, the results of the actions of this regime. The regime has caused this situation, and it cannot resolve it.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] You therefore believe that the collapse of the al-Assad regime will be from within, not as a result of foreign intervention?
[Collis] Yes…I believe this is what will happen, and I believe this is what must happen.
[Asharq Al-Awsat] You do not believe there should be a military solution, or foreign intervention in Syria?
[Collis] No, we – and other countries – will work to isolate the regime and to maximize our support of the opposition, but we will not arm the opposition. I think that the Syrian people will gain their freedom by their own efforts, as has occurred in other countries in the Arab world.

The Afghanization of Syria!
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
As we previously warned, the longer Bashar al-Assad’s fall is delayed, the higher the price we must pay. Some people are warning of Syria becoming like another Somalia; however anybody monitoring what is happening there, and the extent of the international inaction, will clearly understand that the model that Syria is moving closer and closer to becoming is that of Afghanistan.
The longer it takes to reach a decisive conclusion in Syria, and the more the people of Syria suffer, the closer Syria becomes to being another Afghanistan. Some might say that arming the Syrian opposition is what would create another Afghanistan, however this is completely untrue, for what caused Afghanistan to end up as it did was not arming the so-called “mujahedeen” but rather neglecting the country following the defeat of the Soviet occupation. The problem was caused by neglecting and ignoring the Afghan fighters following this, which meant that figures like Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri and others were able to come out of the woodwork. When the policies of the West are solely based on serving electoral agendas, this is when we find a world filled with chaos and wars. This can be evidenced in the west today returning to launch a Somalia conference after more than 20 years of ignoring this country, and this was after Bill Clinton took the decision to withdraw from Somalia for fear of the election results! If George Bush Senior had acted with the same logic as Clinton, he would never have driven Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait!
There are a number of reasons that cannot be ignored as to why Syria is moving closer to becoming another Afghanistan, should al-Assad’s departure continue to be delayed. For example, despite the fact that Iraq recently announced its indifference to al-Assad, Baghdad returned Syrian military defectors who sought refuge in the country back to Damascus. The motive for this is clear; this was either due to Iranian pressure, or sectarianism, which in any case is one and the same thing. Here, it is important to recall the statement made by an unnamed Lebanese Shiite official to Reuters last week, namely that “there is no Syria after al-Assad”. This is certainly the opinion of Hezbollah as well, for they will do the impossible to ensure there is no Syria after al-Assad, and Iran is following Iraq and Hezbollah in this regard. Here it is clear that Syria is trapped between Iran’s allies and agents! The reader must also remember Israel’s position on the map!
This Iranian, Shiite, support will fuel the sense of sectarianism amongst the Syrian Sunni community, indeed the Sunni communities of Iraq, Lebanon, and the entire region. This means that we would be facing a sectarian war, in which case the situation in Syria will not be like that in Lebanon following the assassination of Rafik Hariri, for in Lebanon the rationality of the Hariri family sought to portray this assassination as political, not religious. Saudi Arabia participated and indeed initiated this course, despite the fact that it is well known that this was a political – sectarian assassination; Hariri was the leader of the Sunni community in Lebanon, and an ally of Saudi Arabia. Despite the fact that this assassination was politically foolish, the realities indicate that Iran, al-Assad and Hezbollah benefited the most from this.
Here, we must also recall that there are tribes in Syria, some of whom have historical or geographical ties with Iraq and Jordan and even Saudi Arabia. Therefore we must understand that the longer Bashar al-Assad’s fall is delayed, the higher the price we must pay, and the closer Syria moves to becoming another Afghanistan with new and worse Bin Laden’s and al-Zawahiri’s appearing on the scene!
In summary, the longer the tyrant of Damascus’s fall is delayed, the more exorbitant a price we will pay!

Iran: Strange elections with strange results
By Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat
Imagine a game in which you fix the rules, choose the players, hold a veto over the results and, yet, go on to cheat. This is what happened last Friday with the ninth set of legislative elections in the Islamic Republic in Iran. As always, the regime decided who was allowed to stand and who was not. Then, the task of running the exercise was given to the Ministry of the Interior rather than an independent election commission as is the norm all over the world. No need to say, the results could be changed or canceled by the Council of the Custodians, the mullah-dominated organ of the regime.
So, with such a configuration, why cheat? The answer is that “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei wanted a show that would give him two things. First, he wanted a large turnout so that he could claim that Iranians have moved beyond the disputed presidential election of 2009. Next, he wanted a majority for those who support his decision to transform the Islamic Republic into an imamate.
The official narrative is that Khamenei has succeeded on both scores. The claim is that almost 64 percent of those eligible actually went to the polls and that Khamenei’s most partisan supporters won at least 200 of the 290 seats in the Islamic Majlis, the regime’s fake parliament. However, a glance at the regime’s own data would refute both claims.
Let’s start with the turnout. Judging by age structures, the regime’s census data puts the number of those eligible to vote at over 52 million. However, the figure advanced by the Interior Ministry was 45.2 million. This means that some seven million eligible voters have been left out of the statistics from the start. Even then, the picture is not as rosy as Khamenei claims.
Last Friday’s turnout was lower than that of three of the eight previous elections, especially in urban areas. In Tehran, for example, according to official figures, 5,460,000 people were eligible to vote, but only 2,119,689 voted. In Isfahan, Iran’s second largest city, turnout was around 32 percent.
The largest turnouts were announced for remote areas with no media presence. In Boyer Ahmad and Kohkiluyeh, the smallest of the provinces, almost 90 percent of those eligible to vote supposedly did so. In Charmahal-Bakhtiari and Elam, two other small provinces, the turnout was put at over 86 percent.
Turnout figures were marked up in other ways. The Interior Ministry’s website shows turnouts of between 90 and 128 percent in 127 of the 368 constituencies. This means that in some places the number of those who voted was higher than that of those eligible to vote. (Coincidentally, in Russia’s presidential election, Vladimir Putin is supposed to have won 90 per cent of the votes in Chechnya! Earlier, in Syria Bashar al-Assad scored an 86 percent win in his referendum!).
There was even an element of political vengeance in the way figures were massaged. In Shabestar, the hometown of Mir-Hussein Mussavi, the “Green Movement” leader who is under house arrest, such massaging produced an absurdly high turnout. The intended message was clear: Mussavi is repudiated even in his native town!
Election “fixers” also made sure that the few so-called reformist figures allowed as candidates suffered a dose of humiliation.
There is no logical reason for an 11 per cent rise in the turnout compared to the two previous elections for the Majlis when turnout was put at slightly higher than 50 per cent. The one-week campaign was one of the blandest in memory. And with better known figures in various factions, including those of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not allowed to stand there was even less heat to attract the voters.
The regime has made much of the fact that former Presidents Rafsanjani and Muhammad Khatami did vote in the end. However, Rafsanjani, a clever fox as always, balanced his voting by telling TV audiences that he hoped “this time the real votes would be announced”, a reference to the disputed presidential election of 2009. For his part, Khatami issued a statement explaining why he had voted. In it he made no mention of Khamenei or Walayat al-Faqih or even Islam. Instead, he tried to cast himself as the custodian of the promises of the 1979 revolution.
Turnout aside, the results do not indicate the massive endorsement that Khamenei had hoped for his imamate claim.
Candidates most closely associated with Khamenei’s cult of personality identified themselves by referring to Walayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurists) or variations on that theme. Of the 200 seats declared by the time this column was composed, Khamenei’s partisans had won almost half. The so-called “reformists’ may well end up with 40 seats while Ahmadinejad’s partisans, hiding their identity as much as possible, could win a further 50 seats.
That would leave around 100 seats which, if preliminary analyses are correct, would go to three types of candidates.
First, there are the weathervanes that, as in any other political system, would side with whichever faction that appears to be winning. Next, there are individual politicians with strong personal bases, especially in parts of the country where ethnic minorities live. Finally, we could identify at least a dozen candidates representing the military and security apparatus and its business concerns.
The latest electoral exercise, a compliment that vice pays more than virtue, does not, indeed could not, change the fundamentals of a system paralysed by its contradictions. The Khomeinist establishment remains divided among factions sharpening their knives against one another, waiting for the first opportunity to stab rivals.

Eyeless in Syria
Michael Young,/Now Lebanon
March 9, 2012
Every other day, it seems, an American official complains that the conflict in Syria is a tricky one for the United States to tackle.
On Monday, President Barack Obama described Syria as “more complicated” than Libya. Two days later the cautionary note was sounded by Leon Panetta, the defense secretary, and Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before the Senate Armed Services Committee. The Pentagon officials were effectively responding to Senator John McCain, who has called for airstrikes against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Dempsey revealed that the White House had asked the Defense Department to begin a “commander’s estimate” of military options. But his tone, like Panetta’s, suggested that this was more a case of contingency planning than the reflection of a serious desire to go to war in Syria. Indeed, the options under review in Washington are humanitarian airlifts, naval monitoring, aerial surveillance of Syria’s military and the establishment of a no-fly zone. All fall short of decisively shifting the advantage to the Syrian opposition.
Why is it that Obama and his advisors have had such trouble clarifying their thoughts on the broader Middle East? Why have they been so poor at adopting a holistic strategy toward a region where there is considerable integration between different countries and crises? A principal reason is that this president, even more than his predecessors, is moved primarily by American domestic affairs.
For instance, America’s behavior in Iraq was never truly defined by Washington’s rivalry with Iran. For Obama, it was all about reversing the legacy of George W. Bush and bringing the troops home. Tehran interpreted things differently. Iranian officials saw ascendancy in Baghdad as a vital step toward regional hegemony.
American actions in Afghanistan have, similarly, been shaped by domestic politics. Obama once described Afghanistan as the “right war” and demonstrated it by adopting a counter-insurgency scheme with a nation-building component. The president soon changed course, focusing on anti-terrorism, when he sensed his ambition would be costly and that Americans were uninterested. Regional priorities little affected Obama, whether the proximity of Iran or the Afghan role in tensions between India and Pakistan.
The same lassitude is evident in Syria. The options are limited; the situation is thorny; there isn’t a lot America can do. These are the despondent tropes we hear time and again from the administration, as if the situation in Syria is, above all, a matter of persuading the American public that Obama is blameless.
But politics and foreign policy are about imagination, about creating opportunities, about turning complex situations to one’s advantage. Iran and Russia have been cruel and cynical in Syria, but they know precisely what endgame they want to impose. They want to maintain Bashar al-Assad in power. What endgame does the White House hope to impose? Obama has assured us that the Syrian leader’s downfall is inevitable, so what course of action is America examining to accelerate that outcome? Humanitarian airlifts, naval monitoring and aerial surveillance? Let’s be a bit serious.
The problem is that the debate in Washington is, as usual, centered on America itself. Senator John McCain’s outrage over Syria is laudable. However, there are many things that can be done, in collaboration with the Syrians themselves, short of deploying American warplanes.
The United States, with its Arab and European partners, must help arm, train and organize anti-Assad combatants, allowing them to neutralize the regime’s military advantage, and set up and then expand areas where the Syrian regime cannot enter. It can assist in preparing a police force to manage security in “liberated” areas. And if this proves successful, it can engage Russia to persuade President Vladimir Putin to reassess his objectives in Damascus.
Yes, this is “complicated,” but maybe that’s because the world is a complicated place. Unfortunately, like President Bill Clinton with Bosnia during the early 1990s, Obama only reacts to criticism from within the United States. Clinton’s decision to intervene in the Bosnian war was mainly provoked by the massacre at Srebrenica and his fear of the domestic backlash this might cause. His empty oratory aside, Obama, especially in an election year, doesn’t want to be painted by his adversaries as soft on mass murder.
Whatever happens in Syria will have a profound bearing on American interests. This has been said enough times for Obama to grasp the importance of getting Syria right. Assad’s exit would represent a major setback for Iran and Hezbollah. A democratic Syrian government would likely return to negotiations over the Golan Heights (this may not please Israel, but resuming such talks are a declared American ambition). And ideologically, a Syria rid of dictatorship would presumably represent a net gain for America, which insists that it favors a liberal, pluralistic Arab world.
But don’t expect Barack Obama to go into those details. He has no real strategy for Syria, and will only develop one if pushed to do so. Syrians will continue to be killed, America’s welfare will continue to be harmed, and bureaucrats in Washington will continue to fidget.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. He tweets @BeirutCalling.
 

As Eastern Libya Calls for Autonomy A Middle East Analyst Warns of Crisis
Douglas Mpuga/VOA
More Sharing Services.....A decision by a group of civic leaders in the Libyan eastern city of Benghazi to declare autonomy from central rule has raised fears that the country might break apart.
Some politicians and residents of Benghazi this week said they would run their own affairs, defying the government in Tripoli. They say they do not intend to divide the country but to end years of discrimination against the east under ousted dictator Colonel Moammer Gadhafi.
A provincial council was reportedly created to run the affairs of Cyrenaica, the historic province which runs from the border with Egypt in the east to half way across Libya’s Mediterranean coast.
But thousands of people protested in Libya’s two biggest cities on Friday in a show of opposition to the autonomy plan.
“We are going to see in Libya a variety of moves on behalf of the regions demanding autonomy,” said Dr. Walid Phares, an expert on the Middle East and author of "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East.
These demands, he said, will create a crisis with a central government which has not yet been defined. “Libya is now in a transitional phase that could generate more crisis than before,”
Phares said the new regime in Tripoli is likely to push back on the demands for autonomy. “They will be concerned that if it [calls for autonomy] starts in the eastern part of the country it might spread to other areas of the country.”
The ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) is basically in the hands of the jihadists, said Phares, and the remnants of the former [Gadhafi] regime are trying to ferment trouble. “It is also a possibility that tribes that were supportive of Gadhafi may also demand some sort of political autonomy in their area.”
He said it is going to be a struggle between the central government now controlled by Islamist militias and all those against them.
Phares said while Libya was initially a federation under a King [Idris], before Gadhafi took over and became a unifier by force, now the Islamists are thinking of unifying Libya by ideology – Salafism. “It is not going to work with the tribes because they do not see this ideology – Salafism - as a unifying force.
The anti-Gadhafi forces, he explained, were a coalition of mostly Islamist forces, dissidents of the Libyan army, and tribes opposed to Gadhafi, and ethnic minorities. “This is a very vast coalition of forces that didn’t have enough time to hold a conference to create the foundation of a new Libyan republic.
Most Libyan didn’t want an Islamist state, said Phares, “…so now we are going to see more and more opposition either by tribes or ethnicities to the Islamist regime.”
“They need to move toward a conference that will declare a pluralist democratic state where all forces, including Islamists, are represented.”
Libya is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in June followed by a constitutional referendum.
To all of you: TELL SYRIAN OPPOSITIONISTS TO STOP ATTACKING THE SYRIAN CHRISTIANS. Look at the article below which is affecting policy makers in Washington. You are self-defeatists. Who is that Muslim cleric who said we want to feed the Christians to the dogs? Find him, spank him, and then have him apologize directly. After he does, throw him to the wolves. This is not the Syria we want. Don’t ask me to help if you cannot help yourselves..
Farid Ghadry

The Fate of Syria
"Cut Into Pieces and Thrown in the River"
by Raymond Ibrahim
March 8, 2012 at 4:30 am
http://www.stonegateinstitute.org/2922/syria-christians-fate
Should "rebels" get their way and topple the Assad regime, the same brutal pattern experienced by Iraq's Christian minorities will come to Syria, where an anti-Assad Muslim preacher recently urged Muslims to "tear apart, chop up and feed" Christians to the dogs.
What is the alternative to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria? Just consider which groups in Syria are especially for or against Assad—and why.
Christian minorities, who, as 10% of the Syrian population, have the most to gain from a secular government and the most to suffer from a state run by Islamic Sharia law, have no choice but to prefer Assad. They are already seeing aspects of the alternative. A recent Barnabas Fund report, "Christians in Syria Targeted in Series of Kidnappings and Killings; 100 Dead," tells how "children were being especially targeted by the kidnappers, who, if they do not receive the ransom demanded, kill the victim." In one instance, kidnappers videotaped a Christian boy as they murdered him in an attempt to frame the government; one man "was cut into pieces and thrown in a river" and another "was found hanged with numerous injuries."
Accordingly, it is understandable that, as an earlier report put it, "Christians have mostly stayed away from the protests in Syria, having been well treated and afforded a considerable amount of religious freedom under President Assad's regime." After all, "Should Assad fall, it is feared that Syria could go the way of Iraq, post-Saddam Hussein. Saddam, like Assad, restrained the influence of militant Islamists, but after his fall they were free to wreak havoc on the Christian community; hundreds of thousands of Christians were consequently forced to flee the violence. Many of them went to Syria."
In short, should "rebels" get their way and topple the Assad regime, the same brutal pattern experienced by Iraq's Christian minorities—who have been likened to, and killed off like, dogs, to a point nearing extinction—will come to Syria, where an anti-Assad Muslim preacher recently urged Muslims to "tear apart, chop up and feed" Christians who support Assad "to the dogs." From last week alone, some 70 additional Christian homes were invaded and pillaged, and "for the first time in the history of the conflict in Syria, an armed attack has been made on a Catholic monastery," partially in search of money.
And who are these "rebels" who see and treat Christians as sub-humans to be exploited and plundered to fund the "opposition" against Assad? Unfortunately, many of them are Islamists, internal and external, and their "opposition" is really a jihad [holy war]; moreover, they are acting out anti-Christian fatwas that justify the kidnapping, ransoming, and plundering of "infidel" Christians.
As in Libya, al-Qaeda is operating among the Syrian opposition; Ayman al-Zawahiri himself "urges the Syrian people to continue their revolution until the downfall of the Assad regime, and stresses that toppling this regime is a necessary step on the way to liberating Jerusalem." Both the influential Yusif al-Qaradawi and Hamas -- the latter supported by Assad's ally, Iran— back the "rebels." This overview should place the "opposition" -- who they are, what they want — in a clearer context.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Obama, who was remarkably reticent when Iranians seeking Western-style freedom tried to revolt against the oppressive Islamist regime of Iran, made it a point during his recent State of the Union Address to single out Assad by name as needing to go (not that the Republican presidential candidates seem to know any better; see Andrew McCarthy's recent article where, drawing on America's other misadventures in Islamic nations, he shows how the U.S. has little to gain and possibly much to lose by supporting the anti-Assad opposition).The lesson here is clear: while it is true that not all of Assad's opposition is Islamist—there are anti-Assad Muslims who do not want a state that will be run by Islamic Sharia law —the Islamists are quite confident that the overthrow of Assad will equate with their empowerment. And why shouldn't they be? Wherever Arab tyrants have been overthrow—Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and so on —it is Islamists who are filling the power-vacuums. Just ask Syria's Christian minorities, who prefer the dictator Assad to remain in power—who prefer the devil they know to the ancient demon their forefathers knew.
**Raymond Ibrahim is an Associate

All Defections are Welcomed but not all Defections are Equal
Farid Ghadry Blog/Reform Party of Syria
Stories broke on the newswires yesterday to the effect that several high-ranking Syrian Army Officers have defected to Turkey. The latest wave of defections of over 50 officers include six brigadier-generals, four colonels and the first female first lieutenant.This is welcomed news indeed because it puts to test a theory the thick-headed Assad cannot possibly comprehend: The more hardship the Syrian people, the more defections there will be. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy to self-destruct slowly, and given the incessant bombardment of Baba Amr and Rastan of late, the defections reflect what the Assad regime is to expect as it turns its heavy guns on our civilian population. But not all defections are equal no matter the rank. This is not an issue dealing with penetration of enemy territories, or misinformation campaigns, but rather it is an issue dealing with perception. In mid-January, a Brig. General by the name of Mustapha al-Sheikh defected. Given his last name, his defection was expected because the al-Sheikh tribal vein extends all the way to Saudi Arabia with many of that family's patriarchs playing important roles in the Kingdom's political and military establishments.
Everyone assumed Brig. Gen. al-Sheikh, because of his rank, to simply presume the leadership of the Free Syrian Army, which he failed to do. Today's FSA leadership remains firmly in the hands of the two Colonels who defected first. The reason has to do with perception of the Syrian street which is heavily tilted towards those who defected first because of their courage and because they have spent the longest time defending their neighborhoods. The spoils of war come to those who enter the city first. This is not lost upon the Erdogan Government, which is trying hard to shift the momentum in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood. No high-ranking Syrian army officer is even remotely associated with the Islamists, which is causing the MB some real headaches. Once in a while, the Erdogan Government tests the resolve of the defectors through soft harassment techniques. Few days ago, Colonel al-Asa'ad was summoned to Ankara for more briefings but one has to assume for more berating. Additionally, in a dictatorship where favoritism is far more important than credentials or merit, one should expect that of the many Syrian Generals defecting, some have reached their positions not as a result of their capabilities but rather because of their connections or loyalties. The real and only leadership of the Free Syrian Army remains in the hands of Col. Riad al-Asa'ad and Col. Ahmad al-Hijazi. As long as the street supports them, no one can isolate them or strip them of their well-earned valor.

French Documentary Calls Assyrians 'Christian Kurds'
3-11-2012
http://www.aina.org/news/20120310203112.htm
Assyrian International News Agency
Stockholm (AINA) -- A French documentary from 2011 about dress codes in various countries has enraged the Assyrian community in Sweden. The documentary describes Assyrians as "Christian Kurds" in the episode about dress codes among the peoples of Northern Iraq. Swedish public service channel SVT aired the documentary recently but has been forced to withdraw the episode from its on-demand website after Assyrian protests. Assyrian groups are now looking into the possibility of pressing charges against SVT at the Swedish ombudsman for the media. The documentary was produced by two French media companies, Point du jour and ARTE France, and has recently aired in other European countries. Assyrian individuals and groups are planning to stage protests against the two French companies.
 
Canada Condemns Assad’s Violent Disregard for Human Life
 http://www.international.gc.ca/media/aff/news-communiques/2012/03/10a.aspx
 March 10, 2012 - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
 “The voices of diplomacy in Syria continue to fall on deaf ears. Assad continues to show he has no interest in halting his campaign of terror.
 “We have been clear: Assad must go.
 “Those turning a blind eye to these senseless killings will be on the wrong side of history. The blood of the Syrian people will stain their hands.
 “Canada calls on those backing this illegitimate and irresponsible regime to reverse their current position and to join in condemning this violent disregard for human life.”
 Today the Syrian regime mounted an assault on Idlib while President Assad met with UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan.
 For information on Canada’s previous actions against the Assad regime, please go to sanctions against the Assad regime and closing of the embassy.
  
 Syrians Preparing for a Chemical Attack
 Farid Ghadry Blog/Reform Party of Syria
 On March 16 of 1988, the Iraqi Air Force attacked the Kurdish town of Halabja with multiple chemical agents that resulted in the ghastly death of over 5,000 men, women, and children. The attack started with MIG jets dropping Napalm bombs.
 Many more died later from medical complications. During surveys conducted by local doctors, it was discovered that miscarriages increased by 10 times and Colon Cancer increased by 14 times; in addition to other respiratory illnesses and skin and eye problems. I am told that towns that have been attacked with chemical weapons almost never recover from the scars of these attacks.
 As the savagery of Saddam unleashed hell upon his people, Syrians are facing similar circumstances today. The stockpile of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) in Syria is of concern not only to the Syrians fighting the regime but also to the international community fearing Assad may use his chemical weapons to attack other countries.
 Sadly, the Free Syrian Army involved in defending the civilian population has no access to protective gear, medical expertise, or even the slightest knowledge of how nerve agents like VX, Sarin, or Tabun kill. These organophosphate gases are the most commonly used in warfare today. It is believed the Saddam regime attacked the Kurds using Mustard Gas, Sarin, VX, and Tabun.
 This concern has led an innovative, Florida-based American company called Rapid Pathogen Screening, Inc. (RPS), which specializes in the manufacture of biochemical warfare agents detection devices called PlasmaTox, to donate its knowhow to protect Syrians from a possible onslaught in regions most likely to be attacked by Assad.
 The PlasmaTox device provides Syrians with a life-saving opportunity to detect exposure to chemical agents for maximum protection but it also sends an important signal to Assad that we are watching him. Concurrently, Assad needs to know that the world will not allow another brutal dictator to kill at will using his illegal stockpile of WMD.
 Speaking on behalf of all Syrians fighting for their freedom, we thank all those individuals who, behind the scene, helped us with this humanitarian effort. Syrians won't forget their friends.
 Copyrights © Reform Party of Syria (Project Syria, Inc.) 2003-2011