LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 01/2012

Bible Quotation for today/
Saint Matthew 18/23-35: "‘For this reason the kingdom of heaven may be compared to a king who wished to settle accounts with his slaves. When he began the reckoning, one who owed him ten thousand talents was brought to him; and, as he could not pay, his lord ordered him to be sold, together with his wife and children and all his possessions, and payment to be made. So the slave fell on his knees before him, saying, "Have patience with me, and I will pay you everything." And out of pity for him, the lord of that slave released him and forgave him the debt. But that same slave, as he went out, came upon one of his fellow-slaves who owed him a hundred denarii; and seizing him by the throat, he said, "Pay what you owe."Then his fellow-slave fell down and pleaded with him, "Have patience with me, and I will pay you."But he refused; then he went and threw him into prison until he should pay the debt.When his fellow-slaves saw what had happened, they were greatly distressed, and they went and reported to their lord all that had taken place. Then his lord summoned him and said to him, "You wicked slave! I forgave you all that debt because you pleaded with me. Should you not have had mercy on your fellow-slave, as I had mercy on you?"And in anger his lord handed him over to be tortured until he should pay his entire debt. So my heavenly Father will also do to every one of you, if you do not forgive your brother or sister from your heart.’

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Why Iran Wants to Attack the United States/Matthew Levitt/Foreign PolicyWashington Institute/October 31/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 31/12
Hollande issues warning to Iran after meeting Israeli PM
U.S. lauds Sleiman’s efforts to resolve Cabinet crisis

Lebanese Cabinet approves diplomatic appointments

March 14 declares total boycott of government
Lebanese Campaign Urges 'Right to Know' Fate of Disappeared
Report: Miqati Says March 14 Statement Does Not Serve Efforts to Reach Calm
Hezbollah urges March 14 to exercise wisdom
Israel Abducts Lebanese Shepherd near Blue Line
'Hezbollah installs cameras along border'
Soldier Wounded in Shooting in Front of ISF Intelligence Bureau Chief's Residence
Report: ISF Detains Nigerian Man Who Was Monitoring MP Mashnouq's Mother's House
Mikati: Opposition boycott personal par excellence
March 14 youth blast Cabinet, call for sit-in
Relatives of hostages protest outside Turkish mission
Jumblatt, Wahhab agree to maintain stability in Chouf
Berri says no Parliament session without full participation
Lebanese reporter Itani now in Turkey, minister says
Political events making apolitical art

More bloodshed if West insists on Assad ouster: Lavrov
Air strikes pound Syria rebels as China urged to help


 

Air strikes pound Syria rebels as China urged to help
Iran bans export of 50 goods as sanctions bite: report

Hollande issues warning to Iran after meeting Israeli PM
October 31, 2012/ /By Delphine Matthieussent
PARIS: French President Francois Hollande on Wednesday said he wanted "concrete acts" from Iran to prove it was not pursuing nuclear arms, after his first direct meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Addressing a press conference with Netanyahu, whose aim during the two-day visit is to press for more pressure on Tehran, Hollande warned that Paris would back "other sanctions" if Tehran failed to convince on its contested nuclear programme.
"This is a threat which cannot be accepted by France," Hollande said.
"We have voted for many sanctions and are ready to vote others as long as necessary," the French leader said, underscoring that he wanted "proof that Iran has abandoned this drive."
Iran denies Israeli and Western suspicions that its nuclear programme is a front for a drive for a weapons capability.
Netanyahu hailed the "extremely important position" taken by Hollande.
Netanyahu has warned that a nuclear Iran would pose an existential threat to the Jewish state and has repeatedly refused to rule out military action, fuelling speculation that an attack was imminent.
But he then appeared to pull back, pushing the deadline until spring or even summer 2013, ostensibly to allow time for international sanctions to work.
The pugnacious Israeli leader said in an interview Wednesday that the Arab world would be relieved if Israel struck at Iranian nuclear facilities.
He said in case of an attack, "five minutes later, contrary to what sceptics think, I believe there will be a great feeling of relief throughout the region."
"Iran is not popular in the Arab world, far from it," he said in comments reported in French in France's Paris-Match weekly..
"And some neighbouring regimes and their citizens have well understood that a nuclear-armed Iran is a danger for them, not only for Israel," he said, without mentioning specific nations.
Hollande meanwhile urged Israel and the Palestinians to resume peace talks without any conditions, while criticising continued Israeli occupation.
"Only negotiations can lead to a definitive solution," he said. "These negotiations are hoped for and awaited."
"France wants the resumption of talks between Israel and the Palestinians without conditions and with the same goal -- one we have been pusuing for years, even decades, two state, a state of Israel where security if guaranteed and a Palestinian state which must be allowed to live," he said.
Hollande said the two countries had "divergences on occupation, which we want to see halted."
Direct peace talks have been on hold for more than two years, with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas refusing to negotiate as long as Israel continues to build and approve new Jewish settlements.
Netanyahu is hoping during the two-day trip "to build a good working relationship with the French leader," a source close to the Israeli leader told AFP.
Since taking office five months ago, Hollande has only spoken to Netanyahu by telephone but met Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas twice -- both times in Paris.
Netanyahu enjoyed close ties with Hollande's predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy who cast himself as a "friend of Israel" but there was a chill after Sarkozy reportedly called him a "liar" in November last year during a private conversation with US President Barack Obama.
On Thursday, Netanyahu is to travel to Toulouse with Hollande to attend a memorial ceremony for three children and a French-Israeli teacher at a Jewish school who were shot dead by an Islamist gunman who also killed soldiers of North African origin.
The Israeli prime minister also evoked rising anti-Semitism, which he said was a "threat for all the European people."
But Hollande pledged to "eradicate" attacks on Jews in France, saying: "Whenever a citizen's security is challenged just because he is Jewish -- it's the Republic which is attacked."
The two leaders then launched into a light-hearted exchange with Netanyahu urging French Jews to settle in Israel and Hollande responding that their place was really at home.
France is home to between 350,000 and 500,000 Jews, according to various estimates. Since the creation of Israel in 1948, more than 90,000 French Jews have settled there.
Demonstrations against Netanyahu's visit are planned in several French cities.

U.S. lauds Sleiman’s efforts to resolve Cabinet crisis
October 31, 2012/ The Daily Star
BEIRUT: U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Elizabeth Jones voiced Wednesday her country’s appreciation for President Michel Sleiman’s effort to resolve the government crisis and stressed the importance of avoiding a power vacuum. According to Sleiman’s office, Jones, who arrived in Beirut Tuesday night, “relayed U.S. President Barak Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's appreciation for Sleiman's efforts to preserve political stability and security as well as his call for dialogue to resolve problems and crises between rivals.” The U.S. official also affirmed the importance of state institutions to continue their work and “avoid plunging the country into a vacuum, particularly given the current circumstances in the region, in order to prevent any negative repercussions on the domestic scene.” Jones also told Sleiman about the Defense Department’s decision to resume the U.S. aid program for the Lebanese military and that the U.S. has prepared an aid program for countries housing Syrian refugees via the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Last week, the U.N. refugee agency said there are over 100,000 registered Syrian refugees in the country.
Jones also met with Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati separately. During her talks with Berri, Jones voiced the U.S. administration's support for the policy of disassociation adopted by the Lebanese government, warning against repercussions of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon. Last week, the U.S. threw its support behind calls for a new government in Lebanon. However it also warned against leaving the country with a power vacuum. A statement issued by the State Department said the U.S. believes it is time for the Lebanese people to choose a government that will counter the threat posed by the civil war in Syria. March 14, the opposition group in Lebanon, have been calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the formation of a neutral Cabinet to address the country’s exceptional circumstances. The current Lebanese situation was triggered by a recent car bombing at a residential neighborhood in Ashrafieh, Beirut, that claimed the life of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassa, who headed the police’s Information Branch. The Oct. 19 explosion killed two others and wounded over 100 people.

March 14 youth blast Cabinet, call for sit-in
October 31, 2012/Daily Star
BEIRUT: The March 14 Youth and Student organization will hold a sit-in outside the Grand Serail Wednesday as part of its protest calling on the government to resign.
“The Youth and Student Organization of March 14 calls on all Lebanese youth and civil society groups to gather at the Grand Serail at 6:30 Wednesday night ... in conjunction with the Cabinet session at Baabda Palace which aims at affirming its survival as opposed to our stance,” the group said.
The sit-in would be part of the opposition group’s plan to bring down Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government via democratic means, which began following the assassination of police Information Branch chief Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan. The coalition accuses Syrian President Bashar Assad of being behind the killing and holds Mikati and his government responsible.
In its statement Wednesday, the March 14 Youth organization said: “Hezbollah decided to convene its government today and its Prime Minister Najib Mikati yielded with a clear conscience, indifferent of the blood of the Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan has not dried yet.”
It also added that Mikati was responsible for Hasan’s killing as well as the “blood of the victims” of the blast, which also wounded over 100 others.
“But if Mikati does not consider himself to be responsible for covering the killing of Hasan, as we do, then he is responsible for [devaluing] the blood of the victims in Ashrafieh by continuing to head a government that cries over those who were killed, covers up the killer and resumes meetings as if nothing had happened,” the statement added.
The youth organizations have set up tents outside the Grand Serail in an open-sit demanding the resignation of the government.
The March 14 coalition met Tuesday at former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s residence in Beirut and declared a total boycott of the government.
“In order to face the dangers threatening Lebanon and based on the fact that we are against taking the confrontation to the streets, the March 14 coalition announces its total boycott of this government and is determined to use all democratic means, including popular protests to achieve its goals,” the opposition group said in a statement Tuesday.
“The battle is to face the dangers that beset Lebanon and that cannot be faced by a government which lost the confidence of the majority of the Lebanese,” it added.

March 14 declares total boycott of government
October 31, 2012/By Hussein Abdallah, Hasan Lakkis The Daily Star
BEIRUT: The March 14 coalition called on the Lebanese people Tuesday to rally around its plan to topple Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government, describing Lebanon as a country in danger.
The coalition announced it will boycott the current Cabinet and use all democratic ways, including popular protests, to realize its goal.
Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, reading a statement following a meeting of March 14 leaders at former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s residence in Beirut, said the opposition would not remain silent after the Oct. 19 assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan.
March 14 accuses Syrian President Bashar Assad of being behind the killing and holds Mikati responsible.
“In order to face the dangers threatening Lebanon and based on the fact that we are against taking the confrontation to the streets, the March 14 coalition announces its total boycott of this government and is determined to use all democratic means, including popular protests to achieve its goals,” the statement said.
Siniora reiterated his coalition’s call for the formation of a neutral government to replace the current one, adding that the new government should distance Lebanon from regional conflicts, as stated in the Baabda Declaration.
“This government should go immediately and a neutral salvation government should be formed to face the dangers threatening Lebanon and oversee next year’s parliamentary elections,” the statement said.
“The battle today is not just to bring down the government, and it is not a battle to replace the government of Hezbollah with a government of March 14,” the statement added.
“The battle is to face the dangers that beset Lebanon and that cannot be faced by a government which lost the confidence of the majority of the Lebanese.”
Addressing the Lebanese people, the statement concluded: “This Lebanon is in danger, the nation is in danger, the state is in danger, freedom is in danger, the Lebanese citizen is in danger, your future and the future of your children are at risk, and therefore we cannot act loosely anymore. Stand with us against the status quo that has been imposed on you and on your country.”
Mikati said national disputes should only be resolved through dialogue, criticizing the opposition’s decision to boycott government work, as well as talks aimed at resolving the crisis.
“National issues are not resolved via stubbornness, arrogance or reactionary stances but through dialogue in order to develop common goals shared by Lebanese to fortify the nation under these dangerous regional circumstances,” Mikati’s office quoted him as saying.
He added that he would remain in office to fulfill his responsibilities in order to prevent a power vacuum.
A day after the assassination, Mikati offered to resign and President Michel Sleiman tried to consult with the National Dialogue committee to resolve the government crisis.
But Sleiman was unable to convince March 14 to join talks, with the coalition insistent on Mikati’s resignation as a prerequisite for their attendance, and the prime minister subsequently said he would not step down until an agreement on a new Cabinet was reached.
The premier met later Tuesday with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt at the latter’s residence in Mukhtara.
Jumblatt had joined March 14 in accusing Assad of being behind Hasan’s killing, but parted ways with the coalition over the fate of the Mikati Cabinet after he turned down a request by Hariri to pull his ministers from the government.
Siniora said after the March 14 meeting Tuesday there are four dangers threatening Lebanon: the return of assassinations, the Syrian regime’s decision to destabilize the country, Hezbollah’s provocation of Israel to wage war against Lebanon, and the power monopoly that is being imposed through the threat of Hezbollah’s arms.
The March 14 statement called on Hezbollah to hand over the four party members accused of being behind the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and a suspect who is believed to be linked to a failed plot to kill MP Boutros Harb.
The statement called for referring Hasan’s killing, as well as all the assassinations in the country since 2004, to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
The coalition reiterated its earlier calls to deploy the Lebanese Army along the border with Syria and to request assistance from the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon to help the Army in controlling the northern and eastern borders.
The statement also called for filing a complaint against the Syrian regime before the Arab League over the Samaha-Mamlouk plot, referring to a failed plan to destabilize the country that was uncovered by the late Hasan. The plan involved the targeting of March 14 politicians and was spearheaded by former Minister Michel Samaha, who said while in custody that he had received orders from Syrian Brig. Gen. Ali Mamlouk. The March 14 statement also demanded that Hezbollah hand over its military arsenal to the Lebanese state and called for ending the Palestinian armed presence.
The opposition is expected to step up protests against the Mikati government in the coming days and is considering launching a campaign of civil disobedience, March 14 sources told The Daily Star.
The sources added that Siniora had informed opposition leaders during a weekend meeting at the residence of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea in Maarab that Hariri is determined to force the government to resign and that Saudi Arabia backs the opposition’s demand for a new Cabinet that is not headed by Mikati.
Meanwhile, government sources said the opposition had no international backing to oust Mikati’s Cabinet and that the personal attacks against the prime minister following Hasan’s assassination led to a change of heart on his part. The sources added that forcing Mikati to resign using street pressure is no longer possible and challenged the opposition to take the issue to Parliament by requesting a no-confidence vote. U.N. Special Coordinator to Lebanon Derek Plumbly said Lebanon’s security remains a priority for the international community.
“Our priority remains Lebanon’s security and stability during this period. We are all waiting to see the outcome of the consultations that President Michel Sleiman is undertaking with the political leaders in Lebanon and we hope that those consultations will produce a result satisfactory to all Lebanese parties,” he said.

Lebanese reporter Itani now in Turkey, minister says
October 31, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanese journalist Fidaa Itani who was held over the weekend by Syrian rebels is now in Turkey, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said Wednesday.
Speaking to reports at Baabda Palace ahead of a Cabinet seesion, Charbel said Itani was now on Turkish territory. Charbel’s announcement came hours before the Syrian rebels holding Itani said they would release the reporter within hours. “Journalist Fidaa Itani will be sent to back home through Turkey after we finish getting some information and details about him,” a statement by the Azaz Northern Storm Brigade said. Itani, a former commentator for Al-Akhbar daily who works for Lebanon’s LBCI television, was on a field report in Azaz, in the district of Aleppo, north Syria, when he was held by Syrian rebels over the weekend. According to the statement on the group’s Facebook page, Itani will be freed without any mediation or ransom because he was just “under house arrest.”
“We got information the Itani’s work as a journalist does not meet with the international standards concerning the press,” said the statement.  The stamen added that Itani would not have the right to go back to Syria before a month at least. “The channel or whatever media agency Itani will be working for will have to send a clear note explaining his task in Syria,” said the statement.
Itani’s friends and family held a gathering Tuesday to demand his release. A Facebook group “Free Fidaa Itani” was also established in solidarity with the journalist. The group was joined by more than 5,000 people urging the immediate release of Itani.

Lebanese Cabinet approves diplomatic appointments
October 31, 2012/ /The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Cabinet approved Wednesday diplomatic appointments, including those for posts of ambassadors representing Lebanon abroad, in a move likely to revitalize the work of the government.
Disputes between political parties had held up for years the issue of filling hundreds of diplomatic posts. The decision, arrived during a Cabinet session headed by President Michel Sleiman at Baabda Palace, comes amid mounting calls by the opposition March 14 coalition on the government to resign over the recent assassination of a top intelligence official. Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, the head of the police’s Information Branch, was assassinated in a car bombing on Oct. 19 in the Beirut district of Ashrafieh. His killing heightened tensions in Lebanon, which is threatened by a spillover of the crisis in neighboring Syria. The opposition has accused Syrian President Bashar Assad of the assassination and also holds the government and its prime minister responsible.
On Tuesday, the March 14 alliance announced it would boycott the government and urged the Lebanese people to rally around its plan to topple Mikati’s Cabinet

Hezbollah urges March 14 to exercise wisdom
October 31, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem called Wednesday on the March 14 coalition to exercise wisdom and back off from their stance to boycott the government, the party said in a statement. “We call on the March 14 coalition to demonstrate wisdom and accept the current state of the government because chaos and disruption damage the country and won’t change anything,” said Qassem in the statement. Hezbollah’s official also accused the opposition of evading discussing a new electoral law in a bid to keep the old electoral law adopted in the previous parliamentary polls.
“The March 14’s aim is to disrupt the work of the state and to evade discussion of a new electoral law so they can preserve the 1960s law,” said Qassem. The official also said that the priority in the country should be toward preserving its political stability amid all the regional conflicts. “Political stability in Lebanon is a priority... Lebanon is amid a region in flames and domestic stability is needed to protect it from the repercussions,” he said. On Tuesday, the March 14 alliance announced it would boycott the current Cabinet and use all democratic ways, including popular protests, to realize its objective.
Tensions in the country rose considerably after the Oct. 19 assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan, who headed the police’s Information Branch, which prompted calls by the opposition for the resignation of the March 8-dominated government headed by Mikati.

Why Iran Wants to Attack the United States
Matthew Levitt/Foreign PolicyWashington Institute
October 29, 2012
The Islamic Republic's terror plots may look bumbling today, but what about tomorrow?
An Iranian-American used car salesman pleaded guilty this month to conspiring with Iranian agents to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Mansour Arbabsiar's guilty plea would appear to be the end of this story, but in truth it raises more questions than it answers.
The facts were never really in dispute. U.S. officials learned of the plot early on and built an airtight case. The assassin Arbabsiar tried to hire was in fact a DEA informant. Once arrested, Arbabsiar confessed. At the direction of law enforcement, he then called his cousin and Quds Force handler, Gholam Shakuri. With agents listening, Shakuri insisted Arbabsiar go ahead with the plot. "Just do it quickly. It's late."
But why was the Quds Force, which had earned a reputation for operational prowess even among its enemies, so eager to move forward with an obviously flawed operation? Arbabsiar appears to have been a weak character who "wants to be important," as a government-retained psychiatrist determined. He was drawn into the plot by his cousin, a general in the Quds Force, the arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external operations. So the real question is: What was the Quds Force thinking?
According to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, the plot "shows that some Iranian officials -- probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime."
This new calculus, intelligence officials believe, dates back to January 2010, when the Quds Force decided that it and Hezbollah, its primary terrorist proxy, would embark on a new campaign of violence targeting not only Israel but U.S. and other Western targets as well.
In the wake of last July's attack on Israeli tourists in the Bulgarian city of Burgas, a barrage of journalists called asking me to explain the logic of the attack. I was finishing a book on Hezbollah -- Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God, due out next year -- but still could not easily place the attack within Hezbollah's established modus operandi. The more I thought about it, the more perplexed I became. So, much to my editor's dismay, I stepped away from my keyboard long enough to meet with diplomats and intelligence and military officials from several countries to try and make sense of the new trend of Shia extremist attacks tied to Iran and its proxies. Here is what I have come to understand.
To understand the decision Iran made in January 2010 to engage in a new campaign of violence, one must hark back to the February 2008 assassination of Hezbollah master terrorist Imad Mughniyeh, who was allegedly responsible for the 1984 U.S. Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847, and numerous other attacks. Following Mughniyeh's death in Damascus, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called for an "open war" on Israel. "The blood of Imad Mughniyeh will make them [Israel] withdraw from existence," Nasrallah vowed.
Within weeks, Hezbollah would attempt the first of several failed and foiled plots -- a series of simultaneous car bombings around the Israeli and U.S. embassies, the kidnapping of the Israeli ambassador, and blowing up a radar tower in Baku, Azerbaijan -- intended to make good on Nasrallah's threat. Several additional plots were foiled, leading the Quds Force to partner with Hezbollah and provide extensive logistical support for a large-scale bombing in Turkey in fall 2009. Turkish authorities disrupted a plot in which Hezbollah and Iranian agents posing as tourists intended to attack Israeli and possibly American and local Jewish targets. According to one account, a cell led by Abbas Hossein Zakr was looking to strike Israeli tourists, Israeli ships or airplanes, or synagogues in Turkey. Turkish police arrested Hezbollah operatives who reportedly smuggled a car bomb into the country from Syria while Quds Force agents left the country posing as tourists.
The foiled attack in Turkey was a watershed event for Hezbollah operational planners and their Iranian sponsors. According to Israeli intelligence officials, a blame game ensued between Hezbollah and the Quds Force over the past two years, as the two sides pointed fingers at each other for the failed operations. Meanwhile, by late 2009, Iran was increasingly interested in using Hezbollah to combat threats to its nascent nuclear program. The Islamic Republic was in need of an enforcer: Malfunctioning components had ruined Iranian centrifuges, IRGC officers had defected, and in January 2010 a bomb killed Iranian physics professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi outside his Tehran home.
Iranian officials were furious at Mohammadi's death, and reached two conclusions in its aftermath: First, Hezbollah had to revitalize its operational capabilities. And second, the IRGC would no longer act solely as logisticians supporting Hezbollah hit men -- it would now deploy Quds Force operatives to carry out terrorist attack abroad.
And Iran was in the position to tell Hezbollah where it would fall within Iran's plans. In February, Clapper characterized the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran as "a partnership arrangement, with the Iranians as the senior partner." This "strategic partnership," as National Counterterrorism Center director Matthew Olson put it, is the product of a long evolution from the 1980s, when Hezbollah was just a proxy of Iran.
Under Iran's instructions, Hezbollah's international terrorist wing, the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO), underwent a massive operational reorganization. New operatives were recruited from the elite of Hezbollah's military wing for intelligence and operational training, while existing IJO operatives were moved into new positions. At the same time, the IJO invested in the development of capabilities and tradecraft that had withered on the vine after the group decided to rein in most foreign operations in an effort to keep out of the crosshairs of the post-9/11 war on terrorism.
As part of its IJO shakeup, Hezbollah engaged in detailed talks with Iranian officials to lay out Hezbollah's role in Iran's larger plan for a coordinated shadow war targeting Israeli, American, British, and Arab Gulf state interests. The plan they settled on would include operations intended to achieve several different goals, including taking revenge for Mughniyeh's assassination, retaliating for attacks on Iran's nuclear program, and convincing Western powers that an attack on Iran would lead to asymmetric terrorist attacks worldwide.
To this end, Iranian decision makers settled on a campaign of violence based on three broad targets: Israeli tourists, formal government targets (diplomats, retired officials), and targets broadly representative of Israel or the Jewish community (community leaders, prominent Israeli companies). It assigned the task of targeting Israeli tourists -- a soft target -- to Hezbollah, and gave the Quds Force responsibility for operations targeting Israeli, American, British, or Gulf states' interests. The latter would be carried out by Unit 400, the Quds Force's new special external operations branch.
The operational blitz that followed is now well known. Hezbollah operations included plots in Bulgaria, Thailand, South Africa, and Cyprus. Meanwhile, Quds Force operatives were at work in India, Georgia, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Kenya, and -- through Mansour Arbabsiar -- the United States. Tehran was desperate to implement its new strategy and exact revenge for covert attacks against its nuclear program, so the Quds Force traded speed for tradecraft -- and reaped what it sowed. In some cases, Iranian agents employed laughable operational security; in others, the agents, like Arbabsiar, were kooky.
But the threats were real enough. Last June, Jonathan Evans, the director-general of the British intelligence agency MI5, noted that the plot to assassinate the Saudi envoy in Washington "leads straight back to the Iranian leadership."
The Quds Force is sure to recover from its operational sloppiness, and Iranian leaders appear committed to a policy of targeting Western interests. Arbabsiar's guilty plea ends one chapter in Iran's shadow war against the West, but authorities must remain vigilant for the plots yet to come.
**Matthew Levitt is senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the author of the forthcoming study, Hezbollah, the Qods Force, and Iran's Shadow War against the West.