LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 13/12

Bible Quotation for today/Rejoice with me, for I have found my sheep that was lost
Luke 15/3-7: "So he told them this parable: ‘Which one of you, having a hundred sheep and losing one of them, does not leave the ninety-nine in the wilderness and go after the one that is lost until he finds it? When he has found it, he lays it on his shoulders and rejoices. And when he comes home, he calls together his friends and neighbours, saying to them, "Rejoice with me, for I have found my sheep that was lost."Just so, I tell you, there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous people who need no repentance.


Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Geagea searches for electoral relevance/By Michael Young/The Daily Star/October 12/12

The Right Way for Turkey to Intervene in Syria/By: Soner Cagaptay/New York Times/October 12/12
Islam's Insanities: All Just a 'Hoax/By Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/October 13/12
Egypt's Christians: Distraught and Displaced/By Raymond Ibrahim/October 12/12

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 12/12
'US must ignore Arab Spring violence to boost democracies'
Lebanon president: Use Hezbollah's strength
Hezbollah confirms it sent drone downed over Israel
Hezbollah releases simulation of drone flight
Lebanon prosecutor suspends decision over Syria’s Shaaban
Lebanon's, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh: Lebanon endured financial crisis
President Michel Sleiman: Hezbollah's Drone accents defense strategy need
Lebanese in Syrian villages gear up
Lebanon: Terrorist Fatah al-Islam inmates missing from Roumieh
Lebanon's, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh: Lebanon endured financial crisis



US says tried to resume Israel-Syria talks
IDF on guard for Iranian-Hizballah drones from Palestinian Gaza

BG Airport suspends flights over suspicious object
Israel checking: Was drone headed to Dimona
Syria activists: Jihadists seize missile base
Turkish PM: Syria plane carried Russian munitions
Prosecutor: French terror cell planned Syria trip

US must ignore Arab Spring violence to boost democracies'
IDF on guard for Iranian-Hizballah drones from Palestinian Gaza


Lebanese in Syrian villages gear up
October 13, 2012 01:20 AM
By Mirella Hodeib/The Daily Star
A Syrian flag flies over a border post near the Lebanese frontier.
MASRIYEH, Syria: The bearded man eagerly showed his Lebanese identity card and property deeds issued by Syrian authorities. As he crossed the narrow bridge into Lebanon, he explained that although Lebanon was his country of origin he considered Syria his real home, describing it as the “mother of all the poor.”
“We will not leave the land where we were born and where we work,” said Ali Mohammad al-Jamal, a resident of Farouqieh, a Syrian border village inhabited by Shiite Lebanese. “We will defend our village no matter what.”“We have been living on this land for decades, before Hezbollah even existed,” the farmer continued, boasting an AK-47 he said he bought for $2,700. “I have four others like this one,” he added. Only the men remain in Farouqieh and Masriyeh, some 300 meters away from the Hermel village of Al-Qasr. The women and children have all headed west into Lebanon.
Jamal, 40, who sent his family and parents to the safer Al-Qasr, decided to stay behind to guard his home and land.
Though a staunch supporter of Hezbollah, the man criticized what he dubbed as the party’s “cautious behavior” with regard to the unrest in Syria.
“Although attacks against us have become intolerable, the party still asks its supporters to exercise self-restraint and not be dragged into big fights,” said Jamal, whose home has been attacked by Syrian rebel forces.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah dismissed Thursday as “inaccurate” media reports saying members of his group were fighting alongside the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
He also said 23 border villages located inside Syrian territories but inhabited by Lebanese were forced to take up arms following attacks by the Free Syrian Army, stressing that the population were fighting by themselves and no one was fighting on their behalf.
Located a few kilometers away from the Syrian region of Qusayr in Homs, the villages of Matrabeh, Zeita, Hawik, Aqrabieh, Semaqieh, Jermash, Akoum, Nahrieh, Sqarja, Fadlieh, Gawgaran, Hantalieh, Sefsafeh, Farouqieh, Masriyeh, Wadi Hanna, Hamameh, Sugmanieh and Hawsh al-Sayyed lie on Syrian lands but are all inhabited by Lebanese.
Nasrallah did acknowledge that the commander of Hezbollah’s infantry unit in the Bekaa Valley died while performing his “jihadist duty” in one of those villages.
Ali Hussein Nassif, who went by Abu Abbas, was buried week. He was among those who died defending Shiite villages on the other side of the border, according to Hezbollah’s leader.
Sources close to the party in the northern region of Hermel said reports about Hezbollah sending fighters to war-torn Syria were meant to cover up for a highly probable attack by Syrian rebel forces on the string of border Shiite villages inside Syria.
“Rumors being spread about Hezbollah taking part in the unrest in Syria will be used as a pretext to justify imminent attacks against Shiite villages inside Syria,” one of the sources said. But “the nature of Hezbollah’s reaction is not immediately obvious,” said the source. “They might retaliate or simply ask residents there, the majority of whom are Lebanese, to abandon their properties and head back to Lebanese territory in a bid to avoid Sunni-Shiite strife that could spiral out of control.”
In Hermel, Hezbollah’s main stronghold in the northern Bekaa region, most families own land and property on the Syrian side of the border. Undemarcated and highly porous, a clear border line between Lebanon and Syria is only semi-existent. Until the unrest in Syria erupted some 19 months ago, many on the border made a living by smuggling staples such as heating oil, vegetables, cleaning detergents, drugs and alcohol into Lebanon.
Nowadays the same smuggling routes are being used to transfer weapons and fighters to all those involved in the fighting in Syria.
Syrian and Lebanese territories in this area are so intertwined that Hermel residents often commute by simply walking to their properties inside Syria. The only border marking is the Saqiet Matraba stream, an offshoot of the Orontes River.
“The land is Syrian but it is owned by Lebanese who originally hail from Hermel. They have Lebanese IDs and vote here,” said Mohammad Jaafar, member of a Hermel committee tasked with mediating reconciliation between Sunni and Shiite villages on Lebanon’s north-eastern border with Syria.
Jaafar said Hermel’s major clans and families, such as the Jaafar, Zeaiter, Saqr, Kheireddine, Noun, Zein and Qatraya families, own estates inside Syria.
“They sent their children to Syrian schools and benefited from Syria’s healthcare system,” Jaafar said.
But since the turmoil in Syria broke out matters have become difficult for the residents of the string of border Shiite villages.
According to residents who were forced to flee, some groups from the Syrian opposition operating in the Homs region seem to have stepped up pressure against Shiite villages on the Syrian side of the border.
Abu Falah Qataya and his two wives left their apricot groves in the village of Al-Masriyeh for Al-Qasr in Lebanon after receiving threats.
“I was receiving daily death threats,” said Qataya, 60. “They even forced all the Syrians who worked for me to quit their jobs only because I am Shiite.”
Jamal argued that threats, sabotage operations and robberies carried out by some Syrian rebels against Shiite villages have led the men, the majority of whom are supporters of Hezbollah, to acquire weapons and form a “defense squad” against fighters in Syria. “There is constant coordination among us,” he said.
A senior security source from the Bekaa Valley said that armament wasn’t too difficult in those villages due to the tribal nature of the area. “They all belong to tribes and tribes are known to own all kinds of weapons,” the source said.
While the source doesn’t rule out the possibility of opposition fighters in Syria launching an offensive against Shiite villages, the source maintained that chances it may succeed were very meager. “The Syrian Army is strongly present in those villages due to the fact that their residents are supportive of the regime in addition to the fact that those who remained there are morally and logistically well-prepared to counter potential attacks,” said the source.
The source added that Hezbollah was keen on keeping the 23 villages populated in order to keep Syrian rebel forces away from Hermel, whose arid mountains and valleys are known to house major military bases and camps for the party.
The source close to Hezbollah agreed, saying the main reason why the powerful group is reluctant to offer generous help to families displaced into Lebanon is to encourage them to remain on their land.
“They don’t want them to feel comfortable here and leave their place for the Free Syrian Army to fill it,” the source said.
In the meantime, Jamal from Faroukieh said he was waiting for Syrian opposition forces to raid his village and surrounding areas.
“Only then we will have full freedom to deal with them in our own way,” he said. “If they attack us Hezbollah will not dare prevent us from striking back and teaching those thugs a lesson.” – Additional reporting by Rakan al-Fakih

President Michel Sleiman: Hezbollah's Drone accents defense strategy need

October 13, 2012/By Hussein Dakroub/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: President Michel Sleiman said Friday a Hezbollah-dispatched reconnaissance plane that flew over Israel underscored the need for a defense strategy that benefits from the resistance party’s strength. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s action drew criticism from March 14 politicians who accused the party of launching the Iranian-made drone into Israeli airspace with the aim of diverting attention from its involvement in the 19-month-old bloody conflict in Syria. A spokesperson of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon denied Friday an earlier report that he had suggested there was a risk of an outbreak of a military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah over the drone incident.
UNIFIL’s Andrea Tenenti told The Daily Star that the interview with the Turkish news agency Anatolia, in which he reportedly said the sending of a reconnaissance plane to Israel ran contrary to the provisions of Resolution 1701 which calls on the Lebanese and Israeli sides to maintain calm on the border, had been fabricated.
Earlier, Sleiman, in a statement released by his media office, said: “The dispatching of a drone over Israeli enemy territory shows a dire need to approve a defense strategy that would benefit from the resistance’s capabilities to defend Lebanon.”
He called for establishing “a mechanism to use these capabilities exclusively, and under any circumstances in line with the Army’s plans and its defense needs and the national interest.”
Sleiman was commenting on Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s televised speech Thursday in which he confirmed that the party was behind the drone that Israel shot down over the weekend and warned that the operation would not be the party’s last.
Nasrallah said the drone flight over Israel was in response to the Jewish state’s repeated aerial violations of Lebanon’s airspace.
He pointed out that Israel had violated Lebanese airspace 20,864 times since U.N. Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israeli war on Lebanon, was adopted six years ago.
Although Israeli warplanes shot down the unmanned plane after it flew some 55 kilometers into Israel, the incident marked a rare breach of the Jewish state’s tightly guarded airspace.
Commenting on the drone incident, Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour said in a statement: “Israel is the last one to have the right to complain to the Security Council because it is an aggressive state that carries out its daily aggression and violations against Lebanon.”
In his statement, Sleiman called for United Nations action to stop the Israeli violations of the Lebanese airspace. “The daily Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty and airspace are the subject Lebanon’s permanent complaints with the Security Council,” the president said.
“It is urgent today that [these violations] be immediately stopped and brought to an end in implementation of Resolution 1701 and in order to maintain peace and security in the region,” Sleiman added.
Israel routinely sends F-16 fighter planes over Lebanon, in violation of Resolution 1701. The Israeli planes have often broken the sound barrier over Beirut and other places as a show of strength, most recently after the drone incident.
Last month, Sleiman put forward during a National Dialogue session a blueprint for a defense strategy that would allow Hezbollah to keep its arms but place them under the command of the Lebanese Army, which would have exclusive authority to use force.
Under the proposal, Hezbollah would not hand its arms over to the Army, as demanded by the opposition March 14 coalition, nor would there be coordination between the resistance and the Army, the defense strategy that Hezbollah has backed.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss hailed the drone flight over Israel. ]
“The distance the plane crossed before being detected and shot down was enough to indicate the resistance has been able to develop its technical capabilities, which enabled it to confront the Israeli challenges with high efficiency,” Hoss said in a statement.
However, the drone incident was criticized by opposition March 14 politicians who accused Hezbollah of serving Iran’s interests and trying to divert attention from the party’s involvement in the fighting in Syria .
Tripoli MP Samir Jisr from former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s parliamentary Future bloc described the drone flight over Israel as “a qualitative operation.”
“Flying a reconnaissance plane over Israel is intended to divert attention away from the Syrian events and the involvement of Hezbollah’s members in them,” Jisr told the Voice of Lebanon radio station.
Referring to Hezbollah fighters reportedly killed in the fighting in Syria, Jisr said: “It’s the people’s right to ask where those whom Hezbollah claimed were killed while performing their jihadist duty had died.”
Earlier this month, Hezbollah buried two of its fighters who local sources said were killed near a Syrian border town. Hezbollah acknowledged the death of only one fighter and said he was a commander who “died while performing his jihad duties.”
Nasrallah said Thursday that the commander, Ali Hussein Nassif, had been killed in a Syrian border town inhabited by Lebanese that was frequently bombarded by Syrian rebels.
Syrian opposition forces have repeatedly accused Hezbollah of supporting the Assad regime’s forces in their crackdown against rebels.
According to rebels, members of Hezbollah have died in Syria’s clashes before being returned to Lebanon for burial. The party, however, has denied such accusations.
Future MP Ahmad Fatfat slammed Hezbollah’s operation, saying Nasrallah’s speech proved that Lebanon would remain an “Iranian platform” as long as Iran wanted that.
“This is really a very serious situation as Nasrallah tried to eliminate the meaning of the Lebanese state, as if he is seeking to drag Israel [into war],” Fatfat said in remarks to a local TV.
“He [Nasrallah] is also supporting the Syrian regime by all means when he affirmed that Hezbollah has members fighting in certain villages in Syria,” he added.
Lebanese Forces lawmaker Antoine Zahra said the drone flight over Israel was intended to highlight Hezbollah’s regional role and was an attempt to compensate the losses suffered by the Iran-Syria axis, including Hezbollah.
Speaking to the Free Lebanon radio station, Zahra said Nasrallah’s speech was aimed at reassuring the party’s supporters rather than the Lebanese in the face of “retreats” suffered by Hezbollah’s allies, Iran and Syria.
He added that Nasrallah’s speech had alarmed the rest of the Lebanese that the Hezbollah chief, at “the request of the Iranian or Syrian regime, would start a war somewhere in an attempt to reduce pressure on them and regain the legitimacy of the resistance after it shifted to defending the Syrian regime or Iran’s regional project from Lebanon.”

Lebanon president: Use Hezbollah's strength

Ynet news/Published: 10.12.12/ Iran's Press TV quotes Lebanese leader Michel Suleiman as saying that Shiite organization's ability to send drone over Israel shows need for a new national defense strategy
Iran's Press TV on Friday quoted Lebanese President Michel Suleiman as saying that Hezbollah’s ability to send a drone over Israel showed the need for a new national defense strategy that would use the Shiite organization's strength in safeguarding the country. “The process of dispatching a drone over Israeli enemy territory shows a dire need to approve a defense strategy that would look into the benefits of managing and making use of the resistance’s capabilities,” Suleiman said in an official statement, according to the Iranian news network. It should be noted that over the years there was a great amount of tension between the official Lebanese establishment and the Hezbollah organization, which accumulated more and more power across the country.
In recent years, after it has became quite a powerful element, senior Lebanese government officials have declared more than once that Lebanon should take advantage of Hezbollah's power and cooperate with the organization, and Suleiman's reported statement joins these declarations.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced that Hezbollah had sent the drone that entered Israeli airspace. Shortly afterwards, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah claimed responsibility for launching the drone.
Nasrallah said in an interview with Al-Manar television that "the resistance in Lebanon sent an advanced drone," stressing that the aircraft managed to fly over "a number of important military bases before it was spotted by the Israeli air force." The Hezbollah chief added that the drone was made in Iran, warning that "this is not the first flight – or the last."
On Friday, Al-Manar released a video clip simulating the flight of the drone aircraft.
It is still unclear whether the video adequately simulates the shape of the aircraft. In the video clip, the drone is equipped with a camera which allegedly managed to take photos of various locations it flew over. Earlier this week, Yedioth Ahronoth exposed new details on the downing of the drone over Yatir Forest. According to the report, the first missile fired by the F-16 jet missed the drone. The second Panther missile, the IDF's most advanced air-to-air missile, hit the target.

IDF on guard for Iranian-Hizballah drones from Palestinian Gaza
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 12, 2012/lThe Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s threat Thursday night of more UAV’s over Israel aroused concern in the Israeli high command that Iranian drones had been smuggled into the hands of the Palestinian Hamas extremists ruling the Gaza Strip. He implied that Tehran or Hizballah might ask Hamas to release them over Israel, possibly in coordination with UAV intrusions from Lebanon. After rolling out Hizballah statistics claiming Israel had violated Lebanese airspace 20, 864 times (!), Nasrallah said in his televised speech: “This is our natural right and we will send them whenever we want and this will not be the last time.” The successful penetration of two Iranian stealth drones – one from the Gaza Strip and one from Lebanon – would be celebrated in Tehran and Beirut as a major feat against the Zionist enemy, say debkafile’s military sources - especially after last Saturday, Oct. 6, when an Iranian UAV, which Nasrallah named “Ayyoub,” managed to fly over strategic Israeli sites including the nuclear reactor in Dimona before it was brought down. Israeli surveillance has noted unusual Hamas activity of late to camouflage certain sites in the Gaza Strip, raising the suspicion that Hamas or the Iranian-backed Jihad Islami had taken delivery of a drone, drones or the disassembled components thereof.
If so, IDF sources would expect the Palestinian extremists to refrain from assembling those components for fear that a large flying object would be quickly spotted by Israeli surveillance and destroyed forthwith. Those sources believe, however, that Hizballah officers have arrived in the Gaza Strip to show Hamas technical crews how to assemble the drones at speed and launch them before Israeli intelligence watchers catch on. As to the method of smuggling, military sources assume the parts were brought into Gaza piecemeal in small sections carried in the luggage of Palestinian officials flying to and from Beirut through Cairo international airport. The Hamas delegation which visited Beirut and Tehran last month and signed military cooperation pacts with Hizballah will not have missed the chance of importing large UAV segments into the Gaza Strip on their return home. In their talks with Nasrallah, Hamas leaders agreed to take active part in the Shiite terrorists’ covert operations inside Israel, as well as open hostilities by Iran, Hizballah or Syria against the Jewish State. That consent would have covered the launching of unmanned aerial vehicles from the Gaza Strip.

'US must ignore Arab Spring violence to boost democracies'
By REUTERS 10/12/2012 22:51 US Secretary of State Clinton seeks to reinforce Obama administration's Middle East policy following waves of anti-American violence, says US cannot be deterred by "violent acts of small number of extremists." Photo: Pring Samrang / Reuters
WASHINGTON - The United States must look past the violence and extremism that has erupted after the "Arab Spring" revolutions and boost support for the region's young democracies to forge long-term security, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Friday.
Clinton, seeking to reinforce the Obama administration's Middle East policy following a wave of anti-American violence and last month's deadly attack on the US mission in Benghazi, Libya, said Washington cannot be deterred by "the violent acts of a small number of extremists."
"But we have to stand with those who are working every day to strengthen democratic institutions, defend universal rights, and drive inclusive economic growth. That will produce more capable partners and more durable security over the long term."
Middle East unrest has become fodder for the US presidential campaign, where Republican candidate Mitt Romney has sought to portray President Barack Obama as an ineffectual leader who has left the United States vulnerable at a time of international crisis. Romney and other Republicans have focused on the September 11 Benghazi attack, which killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans, accusing the Obama administration of security and intelligence lapses in what officials now describe as a terrorist attack. Clinton noted that the Benghazi incident was the subject of an official probe and vowed the United States would track down those responsible for the attack.
But she stressed that US diplomats must engage with an uncertain and dangerous world if they are to promote and protect US interests. "We will never prevent every act of violence or terrorism, or achieve perfect security. Our people cannot live in bunkers and do their jobs," she said.
Undimmed promise? Clinton acknowledged that political turmoil in Libya and Yemen, the rise of Islamist parties to power in Egypt and Tunisia and the expanding crisis in Syria were all tests for US leadership - but said more engagement, not less, was the only way forward. "For the United States, supporting democratic transitions is not a matter of idealism. It is a strategic necessity," she said.
And she pointed to the "undimmed promise of the Arab Spring" in the backlash against extremist groups in Libya and Tunisia, saying that in many cases newly empowered Arab societies were standing up for peaceful, pluralistic democratic principles. Clinton pointed to the challenge in Egypt, where on Friday liberals and Islamists clashed in the first street violence since Islamist President Mohamed Mursi took power in June, injuring more than 100 people. "We stand with the Egyptian people in their quest for universal freedoms and protections," Clinton said. "Egypt's international standing does depend both on peaceful relations with its neighbors and also on the choices it makes at home and whether or not it fulfills its own promises to its own people." The Obama administration has earmarked some $1 billion in assistance for countries emerging from the Arab Spring revolutions, and has asked Congress for a separate $770 million fund tied to specific political and economic reforms. But Republican lawmakers remain wary, citing political uncertainties in the region and the need for careful accounting in an era of fast-rising budget deficits. Clinton urged the lawmakers to release the money, citing US-sponsored programs and security partnerships she said could both reinforce democratic gains and increase pressure on extremist groups. "We have, as always, to be clear-eyed about the threat of violent extremism. A year of democratic transition was never going to drain away reservoirs of radicalism built up through decades of dictatorship," she said.

US says tried to resume Israel-Syria talks

Yitzhak Benhorin/10.12.12/Ynetnews
State Department spokeswoman confirms Yedioth Ahronoth report that Netanyahu, Barak held secret indirect negotiations with Assad in 2010, prior to eruption of uprising, but refuses to elaborate
WASHINGTON - State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland confirmed Friday that before the eruption of the popular uprising against Bashar Assad's regime, the United States attempted to renew peace talks between Israel and Syria. The Yedioth Ahronoth daily reported Friday morning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak held secret talks with the Assad regime in late 2012, and that according to American documents Netanyahu agreed to withdraw from the Golan Heights. "As you know, our goal has always been to have a comprehensive peace between Israel and all of her neighbors," Nuland said in a State Department press briefing. "Prior to the eruption of all of the violence in Syria, there were efforts to try to support contacts between Israel and Syrian officials; this was part of the mandate of (then-Mideast envoy) George Mitchell. But obviously, in the current environment in Syria, that's not something that one can continue to work on."Asked to be more explicit about the efforts to mediate between Israel and Syria, Nuland responded: "Besides saying that this was one of the focuses of work that George Mitchell was involved in, I think I'm not going to get into the details of the conversations that we had." The State Department spokeswoman was also asked if Turkey was involved in the talks as it was in 2008, but avoided answering the question.
"The conditions in Syria aren't suitable for a serious effort. But you know, we all hope that we will have a new day in Syria and there'll be another opportunity for her to make peace with her neighbors," she said. Yedioth Ahronoth correspondent Shimon Shiffer revealed Friday that in late 2010, two months before the eruption of the Syrian uprising, Netanyahu and Barak launched secret indirect negotiations with Assad through American mediator Frederick Hoff, a former commander in the Marines and an expert on border demarcation in disputed areas.
According to American sources, Netanyahu and Barak agreed to withdraw to the 1967 lines in exchange for a comprehensive peace deal that would include an Israeli "expectation" for the severing of ties between Syria and Iran. Netanyahu's office said in response, "This initiative was one of many proposed to Israel over the past few years. At no point did Israel accept this American initiative."

The Right Way for Turkey to Intervene in Syria

Soner Cagaptay/New York Times
October 11, 2012
The cost of intervention in Syria may be high now, but the price will only increase for all nations if civilian massacres continue unabated. If Syria radicalizes, becoming a jihadist safe haven, normalizing it could become a Sisyphean task.
Turkey was the first country to take direct military action against the government of Bashar al-Assad since Syria’s uprising began in the spring of 2011. And tensions are escalating further: earlier this week, the Turkish government sent 25 F-16 fighters to an air base near the border with Syria and on Wednesday it forced a Syrian passenger plane to land in the Turkish capital, Ankara, where suspected military aid shipments were taken off the plane.
The shelling along the Turkish-Syrian border is a critical development. The Assad regime is already busy fighting the Free Syrian Army near the Turkish border, where it has been bombing towns and villages. Precision artillery targeting is difficult, and the Syrian military is not known for its accuracy. What’s more, many rebel-held areas lie right next to the Turkish border. Hence even if the Syrians try not to shell Turkish territory, they are quite likely to cause inadvertent damage, potentially killing Turkish citizens — as happened on Oct. 3, when Syrian artillery landed in Akcakale, a Turkish border town.
As long as Syrian shells continue to fall on Turkish territory, Turkey will respond in kind. As Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, “although Turkey does not want war, it is close to war.” If the situation continues to escalate, Turkey’s history suggests that it is likely to follow one of three paths: continued low-intensity shelling, cross-border strikes or an actual invasion.
The first response for Ankara would be to continue the current pattern of shelling across the border every time Syria targets Turkey. This would weaken Syrian forces in some areas near the Turkish border, letting the F.S.A. fill the vacuum. This wouldn’t create a contiguous safe haven, but it would lead to pockets of F.S.A.-held territory inside Syria under a de facto Turkish security umbrella.
The second would combine shelling with cross-border raids to target Kurdish militants in Syria. Turkey’s policy, after all, is not just about Syria. It also depends on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the P.K.K., and its Syrian affiliate, the Party for Democratic Unity, or P.Y.D. Turkey views the P.K.K. as an existential threat, and the P.Y.D. is reportedly already active in Syrian towns near the Turkish border, though the group has said it does not plan to fight Turkey. If Turkey believes that Kurdish militants are turning Syria into a staging ground for operations against Turkey, the Turkish military would strike decisively, as it did against Kurds in northern Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s rule effectively ended there in the 1990s. Ankara might go for the “northern Iraq option” once again to prevent Kurdish militants from taking control of northern Syria.
Finally, if things get worse along the border, causing more Turkish casualties, Turkey may go even further, staging a limited invasion to contain the crisis as it did in Cyprus in the 1970s. At that time, Ankara waited patiently for the United States and the international community to come to its aid in Cyprus. When such help did not materialize, Turkey took matters into its own hands, and landed troops on the island.
NATO has already issued a statement that it will defend Turkey against Syria. Yet if Turkey decides that the international community is not going to actually help stave off the Assad regime’s aggression, it may choose the Cyprus option. The Turkish president, Abdullah Gul, has suggested that Ankara may be getting closer to its threshold, declaring on Oct. 8 that “worse-case scenarios” are looming in Syria and calling upon the international community to act.
The Cyprus scenario is the least desirable for Turkey. Full-scale war is not in its interest, especially if Turkey launches such a campaign without American backing. And NATO support under Article 5 of the alliance’s charter, which calls for all NATO members to come to the defense of any member that is attacked, would be harder to muster. Article 5 has been activated only once in NATO’s history and that was after the 9/11 attacks. Moreover, European nations like France haven’t in the past been keen to come to Turkey’s defense. A unilateral war against the Assad regime would also irritate the United States and anger Russia and Iran, Ankara’s rivals in Syria -- a serious concern because Moscow and Tehran have a track record of supporting Kurdish militants.
The northern Iraq option would not necessarily raise America’s ire, but it would expose Turkey to further P.K.K. attacks, including ones backed by Iran. Tehran already appears to be encouraging the P.K.K. to punish Turkey for its stance in Syria. Major attacks could hurt Turkey’s economy and erode Mr. Erdogan’s popularity.
This leaves Turkey with the status quo -- retaliating to Syrian artillery fire by shelling across the border. Yet this will not solve the Syria crisis. Only an effective arms embargo and a multilateral intervention to create safe havens for civilians will stop the slaughter.
The cost of intervention in Syria may be high now, but the price will only increase for all nations if civilian massacres continue unabated. Currently, Syria looks eerily similar to Bosnia in the early 1990s. When the world did not act to end the slaughter of Muslims there, jihadists moved in to join the fight, and they sought to convince the otherwise staunchly secular-minded Bosnian Muslims that the world had abandoned them and that they were better off with jihadists. In Bosnia, the international community intervened before it was too late. If Syria radicalizes, becoming a jihadist safe haven, it could become a Sisyphean task to normalize it. Afghanistan is a case in point. *Soner Cagaptay is a fellow and the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Lebanon prosecutor suspends decision over Syria’s Shaaban

October 12, 2012/Youssef Diab The Daily Star
BEIRUT: A Lebanese military prosecutor Friday decided to suspend a decision over whether to charge Syrian President Bashar Assad’s political adviser for involvement in attempted terror attacks in Lebanon. Military Investigative Judge Riad Abu Ghayda interrogated former Information Minister Michel Samaha Wednesday over recordings of conversations between him and Assad’s political and media adviser Bouthaina Shaaban. “Prosecutor Saqr Saqr finished examining the statements made by Samaha Wednesday and chose to be patient before making a decision whether or not to charge Shaaban,” a judicial source told The Daily Star. The source said Saqr returned the dossier to Abu Ghayda to resume investigation from the point it has reached.
The conversations were obtained from three cellphone recordings that Samaha had downloaded onto his computer, judicial sources previously told The Daily Star.
Samaha, who has maintained close ties with the Syrian regime for decades, was charged in August with transporting explosives from Syria into Lebanon to use them in terrorist attacks aimed at assassinating religious and political figures. A high-level security source said Monday that the recordings contained evidence incriminating Shaaban in the case.
“The recordings confirm Bouthaina Shaaban had knowledge of Samaha’s security and political activity as well as the tasks that were assigned to him,” the source said.
Shaaban has dismissed accusations of her involvement in the Samaha case.

Lebanon's, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh: Lebanon endured financial crisis
October 13, 2012 /The Daily Star
TOKYO: Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said Lebanon’s economy has shown remarkable resilience to severe shocks, thanks to a credible monetary policy, a stable currency, prudent banking practices, including the separation between retail and investment banks, and sound public debt management.
Speaking at the 67th Plenary of Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank group in Tokyo, the governor also touched on the security situation in the Middle East.
“The Middle East is experiencing historic changes, and I can attest to the continuing challenges facing our peoples. This past year, the IMF has agreed to provide financing commitments to three of our countries, one of which is under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line – the first of its kind. Negotiations with another country are currently under way,” Salameh added.
He said that in these trying times, it becomes even more urgent for everyone in the Middle East to learn from one another’s experience and share knowledge in the quest for better solutions.
The governor added that the Bank Group this past year disbursed over $5 billion to build schools, reform key sectors such as electricity, and create and develop small and medium enterprises.
Salameh also stressed that advanced economies continue to face the formidable task of addressing fiscal challenges, reforming the financial sector and reviving growth.
“In particular, risks emanating from fiscal uncertainties in the United States and ongoing concerns on the European sovereign debt crisis call for decisive and timely actions to avoid damaging effects on global stability and growth,” he said. “The urgency of resolving the euro-area crisis cannot be overemphasized. Euro-area members must persevere in efforts to stabilize the sovereign debt market, and implement the necessary structural reforms to revive growth,” he told participants at the conference. Salameh noted that since the onset of the crisis in 2008, the IMF has made 126 new financing commitments, totaling $540 billion. “Given prolonged uncertainties, participants in the New Arrangements to Borrow have agreed to activate the arrangements for the full amount for another six-month period.
“The membership has also committed to increasing the Fund’s resources by $456 billion through bilateral borrowing arrangements. “These additional resources will bring the Fund’s lending power to a total of $1 trillion, thereby strengthening the global safety net for members,” Salameh said. He also hailed the role of the private sector in stimulating the economy and create jobs.
“As the Bank’s World Development Report on Jobs recognizes, the private sector creates most jobs, with the support of sound government policies. Jobs that are good for development can be transformative for countries of all income levels. Good jobs contribute to better living standards, higher productivity and stronger social cohesion,” the governor said.
He added that jobs are at the core of development, helping fragile societies reject violence, giving dignity to the poorest, and offering youth hope for a better future.
“Last year’s World Development Report argued convincingly that gender economics is smart economics, and we must ensure that women take their rightful place in employment and development,” Salameh said. He highlighted that the IMF and the Bank Group have continued to engage with low-income countries. “Since the beginning of the crisis, more than half of the Fund’s financing arrangements have been with low-income countries,” he said. “Following the review of the Fund’s low-income country facilities, the IMF board has decided to use the Fund’s remaining gold sales windfall profits as part of a strategy to ensure the sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. We must all firmly support this initiative,” the governor suggested.

Geagea searches for electoral relevance
October 11, 2012 /By Michael Young/The Daily Star
Samir Geagea, the Lebanese Forces leader, visited Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, in Jeddah on Tuesday. There is no reason to doubt reports that the meeting went well, and that there was “full agreement on national issues.” However, the debate over an election law is exposing contrasting interests among the March 14 allies.
The Geagea-Hariri alliance is solid and will remain so. However, when the Lebanese Forces leader flies to Saudi Arabia so soon after a meeting between his parliamentarian, Antoine Zahra, and Hariri, you know something is amiss. There is a gap between the two sides over the election law, particularly in light of the reconciliation in Paris several weeks ago between the former prime minister and Walid Jumblatt. It was clear that both were on the same wavelength in opposing a government draft election law based on proportional representation.
The rapprochement between Jumblatt and Hariri poses a number of challenges for Geagea. There are reports that Zahra was informed by Hariri that the political relationship with Jumblatt was very valuable to the former prime minister. This is not surprising when Sunni voters make up a third of the electorate in the Chouf, and must collaborate with the Druze to ensure the victory of Hariri lists in Beirut and the West Bekaa. Geagea’s Jeddah trip may have been an effort to see just where he stood with Hariri and perhaps earn guarantees for the future.
The Lebanese Forces leader is perfectly aware that where Hariri and Jumblatt go on an election law, March 14 will follow. The opposition has presented an electoral project that divides Lebanon into 50 districts. The exercise is a waste of time. Hariri publicly says he supports the plan, but only because he needs to show a united front. There will be no accord over the March 14 proposal in Parliament, nor will there be one over the government’s draft law. This strongly implies that, by default, the 2009 law will again govern elections.
Geagea’s problem is that the 2009 law is markedly unpopular among Christians, because it means that many of their candidates are chosen by predominantly non-Christian electorates. When Michel Aoun is backing a law that allows Christians to vote for Christians, this provides him with a tactical advantage over Geagea. Whether the Lebanese Forces leader likes it or not, he will ultimately have to go along with Hariri, who has no problems with the 2009 law. This could cost Geagea among Christians, unless he can be compensated in some way.
What might Geagea be satisfied with? A significant number of his appointees on Hariri and Jumblatt lists, perhaps. A serious effort to move the Maronite seat in Tripoli to Batroun – or barring that, the naming of a Lebanese Forces candidate for the Tripoli seat. Financial assistance for the campaign. But also, and more broadly, a solid reaffirmation of the centrality of the Lebanese Forces in the partnership with Hariri. After all, if Jumblatt can be welcomed back by the former prime minister, despite his betrayal last year, Geagea, who always remained loyal, merits something better in return. His ambition is to challenge Aoun as the principal Christian representative, and Hariri’s lists and electorate are his tickets to that ambition.
Unfortunately, Geagea suffers from political shortcomings. The Lebanese Forces are less influential than they like to imagine. The party has made great strides in recent years, yet it is capable of forming lists in very few constituencies. In the Christian heartland of Mount Lebanon the Lebanese Forces have a definite presence, but not a dominant one. In the Metn, Kesrouan, Jbeil, Aley and the Chouf, the party is not a decisive electoral force, its undeniable importance notwithstanding. In Baabda, the Lebanese Forces have greater sway, but this is more than neutralized by Hezbollah’s voters, real and imagined, whose numbers can be expanded almost at will depending on how many votes the party needs to win.
Geagea would be right to respond that he embodies rather more than a mere election tool for Hariri. After all, he is the leading Christian in March 14. His collaboration is critical for a mainly Sunni Future Movement that aspires to cross-sectarian appeal. Moreover, Geagea has been steadfast on those issues essential to Sunnis – above all opposition to Hezbollah’s arms and support for the uprising in Syria.
But Geagea is in a dilemma. If Lebanon votes according to the 2009 law next year, and the Lebanese Forces endorse it because they’ve received more candidate seats, the party risks being discredited among Christians as an appendage of the Future Movement. But if Geagea doesn’t gain seats, the Lebanese Forces could be perceived as having fatally stagnated. The Jeddah encounter may have been a great success, but expect more before Geagea and Hariri achieve full harmony.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Fatah al-Islam inmates missing from Roumieh
October 13, 2012/The Daily Star/BEIRUT: Three Fatah al-Islam inmates escaped from Roumieh prison, a senior officer told The Daily Star Friday. According to the officer, the prisoners escaped from the prison’s B building, but it is still undetermined when they actually fled. MTV television station reported that the inmates may have escaped around a month ago and their disappearance was only discovered when prison guards went looking for one man to go to his court date. After the prison guards did a head count of the entire wing they discovered two other inmates were also missing, the station reported.
Al-Jadeed Television station reported that one of the escaped inmates may have been killed in Syria. The station showed unconfirmed video footage of what may have been the dead body of one inmate.
Other inmates are being questioned over the breakout, while members of the police have begun a manhunt around the forested hills surrounding Roumieh, the officer said.
Islamist prisoners have been held in Roumieh for several years over suspected links to Fatah al-Islam, which fought the Lebanese Army in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in 2007. Many of the prisoners have not been tried or convicted of crimes. Over the past several years numerous escape attempts have been made by Islamist detainees and a number have left Roumieh. But those who did get out were either killed or captured after leaving the prison.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
International Christian Concern (ICC): Christian Boy Accused of Defaming Muhammad in Pakistan
Washington, D.C. (October 12, 2012) - International Christian Concern (ICC) has learned that a Christian boy was accused by neighbors of blasphemy in Karachi, Pakistan for allegedly forwarding a text message that insulted Islam on Tuesday. The following day, a Muslim mob ransacked the boy's home and set fire to household furniture. The case follows the arrest of a Christian girl for allegedly burning pages of the Quran in August. Though the girl was released from prison in early September, she is scheduled to appear before a juvenile court on blasphemy charges later this month.
Ryan Stanten, a 16-year-old Christian boy from Karachi, Pakistan, was charged with blasphemy on October 10 for sending a text message on his cell phone that allegedly defamed the Muslim prophet Muhammad, police officials said. Ryan reportedly told local religious leaders on Tuesday that he forwarded the message without reading its content. An angry mob broke into Ryan's home the next day, burning furniture and other household belongings. Ryan and his mother, Rubina, were in the house but were unharmed.
"After people's anger, a police team reached there. They calmed them down, saved the house from further damage and registered a blasphemy case against the boy," Shahid Hayat, a senior police official, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
There are conflicting reports about the Ryan's whereabouts. While BBC reported that the boy was arrested and is being held in custody, police official Hayat told AFP that the boy and his mother "vanished" after the mob raided their home.
Ryan's case follows similar charges filed against 14-year-old Rimsha Masih, a Christian girl with mental disabilities, who was arrested for allegedly burning pages of the Quran in Islamabad on August 16. Rimsha was released on bail on September 7 days after four witnesses testified that Khalid Jadoon Chisti, a local imam, had planted the burned pages in Rimsha's possession. Three of the four witnesses, however, recanted their statements this month at Chisti's bail hearing. Rimsha is scheduled to appear in a juvenile court on October 17.

Islam's Insanities: All Just a 'Hoax'?
by Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine
October 11, 2012
http://www.raymondibrahim.com/12404/islam-insanities-all-just-a-hoax
You read something immensely disturbing concerning the Muslim world—say, that some Muslims seek to legalize sex-slavery or destroy Egypt's Pyramids or approve of sodomy-suicide-missions or crucify infidels. Your mind—exclaiming "tell me this is a joke!"—finds it difficult to accept such news. Then, somewhere from the bowels of the Internet, relief arrives.
To determine if a practice is Islamic or not, first determine if it is in the Quran, Hadith, and the rest of Islam's voluminous literature.
The much welcomed word "Hoax!" appears, reconfirming your worldview. All is well again.
But is it? Are such accounts mere hoaxes? Or is this just another strategy by those who apologize for Islam's insanities—a strategy that relies exclusively on the fact that the Western mindset cannot fathom such news, anyway, and thus is all too willing to accept the hoax charge without a second thought?
Recall the news that Salafi parliamentarians in Egypt were pushing for a law legalizing necrophilia. This information first appeared in Egypt's most circulated newspaper, Al Ahram, followed by Al Arabiya. The news went viral, prompting Western dismay. But then a cutesy Christian Science Monitor article titled "Egypt 'necrophilia law'? Hooey, utter hooey" tried to return us to the status quo. Its author, one Dan Murphy, admonished the many websites that disseminated the necrophilia story: "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet, kids. At least until there's like, you know, some proof."
And his "proof" that it was a hoax? Nothing. He even confirmed that "there was a Moroccan cleric a few years back who apparently did issue a religious ruling saying that husbands remained married to their wives in the first six hours after death and, so, well, you know [i.e., he permitted necrophilia]. But that guy is far, far out on the nutty fringe."
Aside from Murphy's immature tone—"so, well, you know" what?—one fails to see how characterizing a cleric as a "nut" means that his religious ruling is a "hoax"—that it never existed? Likewise, when it comes to fatwas, it matters not which nation they hail from, so that Egyptians can easily uphold the fatwa of a Moroccan, or vice-versa, because in Islam there is no "national" distinction, only the umma.
And yet, no matter how shallow or lacking in evidence, these hoax charges resonate well, simply because the mainstream Western mentality instinctively rejects, in this case, the idea of codifying necrophilia.
Much of this is exacerbated by the fact that most Westerners, including reporters, cannot independently verify such stories, as they usually originate in Middle Eastern languages. Which leads to my familiarity with this matter: I get most of my news directly from the Arabic media—knowing that it is better to get my information directly "from the horse's mouth" than to get it from the limited and filtered Western media.
Accordingly, I am often first to expose stories that go unreported in the West—for instance, the fact that the U.S. embassy in Cairo was being threatened days before the Muhammad movie became a convenient excuse to riot and destroy (the original reason was to coerce the U.S. to free the Blind Sheikh and others).
However, those who prefer to keep such stories suppressed have learned to cry "hoax"—taking advantage of the fact that most Americans cannot read Arabic or verify these accounts for themselves.
Thus, when I documented the indisputable fact that several Islamists were calling for the destruction of Egypt's Pyramids, the New York Times and Huffington Post cried "hoax"; when I shed light on an obscure "sodomy fatwa" which helped explain the role of intention in Islam (or niyya), Muslims and others cried hoax, including by lying and distorting; and when I reported on how Muslim Brotherhood supporters crucified their opponents, the National Post and others cried hoax.
And yet, none of these naysayers offered any meaningful evidence (click above links for my full responses). Instead, they banked on the fact that it is simply too hard to believe these stories in the first place.
So what should the objective Western reader do—who is stuck in the middle, does not read Arabic, and cannot independently verify anything—when confronted with absurd news emanating from the Islamic world?
Along with evaluating the evidence as best they can, I suggest they learn to connect-the-dots. The fact is, there is no end of bizarre anecdotes emanating from the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia's highest Islamic authority until he died in 1999, Sheikh Bin Baz—hardly someone to be dismissed as being "far, far out on the nutty fringe"—insisted that the earth was flat and that all scientific evidence otherwise is a Western conspiracy.
In 2007, Egypt's second highest Islamic authority, Sheikh Ali Gomaa—the same "moderate" Grand Mufti who deems all Christians "infidels"—decreed that drinking the urine of Muhammad was a great blessing. Likewise, a few weeks ago in Egypt it was revealed that there is now a clinic "healing" people by giving them camel urine to drink—because Muhammad once advised it.
Then there are the notorious breastfeeding fatwas: Several Islamic clerics—including Dr. Izzat Atiya, of Egypt's Al Azhar University—advised Muslim female workers to "breastfeed" their male co-workers in order to be in each other's company (more "moderate" clerics say it is not necessary for the man to drink the milk directly from the teat but may use a cup).
The list goes on and on: Several Muslims, including prominent ones, are calling for the reinstitution of sex-slavery, whereby "infidel" women can be bought and sold in markets. One female Kuwaiti politician even recommends that Russian women seized during the Chechnya jihad be sold as sex-slaves on Muslim markets.
Other prominent clerics insist that Islam allows men to get "married" to baby girls still in the cradle, having sex with them once these children are "capable of being placed beneath and bearing the weight of the men."
How does one explain these absurd and vile teachings—teachings advocated, not from radicals nor clerics "far, far out on the nutty fringe"—but often from its highest authorities? Simple: Islamic jurisprudence, which is responsible for defining what is right and wrong in Islam, is fundamentally based on the words of a 7th century Arab whom Muslims venerate as a prophet. And this man said and did many things that defy modern day sensibilities.
Indeed, he said and did many things that defied the sensibilities of his contemporaries—such as stripping naked and lying with a dead woman to the surprise of her gravediggers (which, incidentally, is cited by the necrophilia fatwas). And it was the prophet who first ordered a woman to "breastfeed" a man in order to be in his company. Though she expressed shock at the very idea, she went through with it anyway.
Here, then, is the rule of thumb: When it comes to determining whether a story from the Muslim world is a hoax or not, first determine whether it is it Islamic or not—whether it has doctrinal or historic support; whether it has some backing in the Quran and/or the hadith.
As it happens, destroying pyramids and pre-Islamic antiquities is very Islamic with a long paper trail; engaging in forbidden acts like sodomy or suicide or lying in order to empower Islam is legitimate according to the Islamic notion of niyya (or intention); crucifying the opponents of Islam is prescribed in the Quran—just as is sex-slavery and pedophilia; drinking urine—whether camels' or Muhammad's—is lauded in the hadith.
In short, the true test of whether an Islam-related story is a hoax or not, is not whether it accords with our sensibilities, but whether it accords with Islam's teachings, many of which are strange if not downright bizarre by Western standards.


Question: "Has the Bible been corrupted, altered, edited, revised, or tampered with?"
GotQuestions.org/Answer: The books of the Old Testament were written from approximately 1400 B.C. to 400 B.C. The books of the New Testament were written from approximately A.D. 40 to A.D. 90. So, anywhere between 3400 to 1900 years have passed since a book of the Bible was written. In this time, the original manuscripts have been lost. They very likely no longer exist. Also during this time, the books of the Bible have been copied again and again. Copies of copies of copies have been made. In view of this, can we still trust the Bible?
When God originally inspired men to write His Word, it was God-breathed and inerrant (2 Timothy 3:16-17; John 17:17). The Bible nowhere applies this to copies of the original manuscripts. As meticulous as scribes were with the replication of the Scriptures, no one is perfect. As a result, minor differences arose in the various copies of the Scriptures. Of all of the thousands of Greek and Hebrew manuscripts that are in existence, no two were identical until the printing press was invented in the A.D. 1500s.
However, any unbiased document scholar will agree that the Bible has been remarkably well-preserved over the centuries. Copies of the Bible dating to the 14th century A.D. are nearly identical in content to copies from the 3rd century A.D. When the Dead Sea Scrolls were discovered, scholars were shocked to see how similar they were to other ancient copies of the Old Testament, even though the Dead Sea Scrolls were hundreds of years older than anything previously discovered. Even many hardened skeptics and critics of the Bible admit that the Bible has been transmitted over the centuries far more accurately than any other ancient document.
There is absolutely no evidence that the Bible has been revised, edited, or tampered with in any systematic manner. The sheer volume of biblical manuscripts makes it simple to recognize any attempts to distort God’s Word. There is no major doctrine of the Bible that is put in doubt as a result of the minor differences that exist between manuscripts.
Again, the question, can we trust the Bible? Absolutely! God has preserved His Word despite the unintentional failings and intentional attacks of human beings. We can have utmost confidence that the Bible we have today is the same Bible that was originally written. The Bible is God’s Word, and we can trust it (2 Timothy 3:16; Matthew 5:18).

Egypt's Christians: Distraught and Displaced
by Raymond Ibrahim
Investigative Project on Terrorism
http://www.meforum.org/3356/egypt-christians-displaced
Last week Reuters reported that "Most Christians living near Egypt's border with Israel [in the town of Rafah in Sinai] are fleeing their homes after Islamist militants made death threats and gunmen attacked a Coptic-owned shop." Photos of desecrated churches and Christian property show Arabic graffiti saying things like "don't come back" and "Islam is the truth."
All media reports describe the same sequence of events: 1) Christians were threatened with leaflets warning them to evacuate or die; 2) an armed attack with automatic rifles was made on a Christian-owned shop; 3) Christians abandoned everything and fled their homes.
Anyone following events in Egypt knows that these three points—threatening leaflets, attacks on Christian property, followed by the displacement of Christians—are becoming commonplace in all of Egypt, and not just peripheral Sinai, even if the latter is the only area to make it to the Western mainstream media. Consider:
Genocidal Leaflets
On August 14, El Fegr reported that leaflets were distributed in areas with large Christian populations, including Upper Egypt, offering monetary rewards to Muslims who "kill or physically attack the enemies of the religion of Allah—the Christians in all of Egypt's provinces, the slaves of the Cross, Allah's curse upon them…"
As a testimony to just how safe the jihadis feel under Egypt's new Islamist president, Muhammad Morsi—who just freed a militant jihadi responsible for the burning of a church that left several Christians dead—the leaflets named contact points and even a mosque where Muslims interested in learning more about killing Christians should rally "after Friday prayers where new members to the organization will be welcomed."
On the same day these leaflets were distributed, a separate report titled "The serial killing of Copts has begun in Asyut" noted that a Christian store-owner was randomly targeted and killed by Salafis.
Muslim Attacks on Christian Properties and Persons
For months, Arabic-Christian media have been reporting ongoing stories of Muslim "gangs" and "thugs" attacking Christian homes, abducting the residents, including women and children, and demanding ransom monies—not unlike what is happening to Christians in Iraq and Syria. In one particular case, the Muslim gang attacked the home of a Coptic man, "releasing several gunshots in the air, and threatening him either to pay or die." The gang "picked this specific village because Copts form 80% of its inhabitants." Such reports often conclude with an all too familiar postscript: Christians calling police for help and filing complaints, all in vain.
A Coptic Solidarity report from August 20 titled "Copts in Upper Egypt Attacked, Beat, Plundered," tells of just that—how Christians are being beat, their businesses set on fire, and their properties plundered (see also here and here for similar reports). Likewise, according to Al Moheet, a new human rights report indicates that, in Nag Hammadi alone, there are dozens of cases of Muslim gangs abducting Christian Copts and holding them for ransom. Concerning these, the Coptic Church is daily asking for justice from the Egyptian government and receiving none.
Christian Displacements
As for the exodus of Copts from their homes, this, too, has become an ongoing crisis, so much so that a recent statement by the Holy Synod of the Coptic Orthodox Church of Egypt lamented the "repeated incidents of displacement of Copts from their homes, whether by force or threat." The statement also made clear that what happened in Sinai is no aberration: "Displacements began in Ameriya, then they stretched to Dahshur, and today terror and threats have reached the hearts and souls of our Coptic children in Rafah [Sinai]."
Indeed, back in February, a mob of over 3000 Muslims attacked and displaced Christians in the region of Ameriya, due to unsubstantiated rumors that a Christian man was involved with a Muslim woman. Christian homes and shops were looted and then torched; "terrorized" women and children who lost their homes stood in the streets with no place to go. As usual, it took the army an hour to drive 2 kilometers to the village, and none of the perpetrators were arrested. Later, a Muslim Council permanently evicted eight Christian families and confiscated their property, even as "Muslims insisted that the whole Coptic population of 62 families must be deported."
A few weeks ago in Dahshur, after a Christian laundry worker accidently burned the shirt of a Muslim man, the latter came with a Muslim mob to attack the Copt at his home. As the Christian defended his household, a Muslim was killed. Accordingly, thousands of Muslims terrorized the area, causing 120 Christian families to flee. One elderly Coptic woman returned home from the bakery to find the area deserted of Christians. Rioting Muslims looted Christian businesses and homes. Family members of the deceased Muslim insist that the Christians must still pay with their lives.
Most recently, at the same time the media was reporting about the displacement of Christians from Rafah, over in Asyut, after a quarrel between two school girls—a Christian and a Muslim—several "heavily-armed" Muslims stormed the home of the Christian girl, causing her family and three other Coptic families to flee the village. When the father returned, he found that all his saved money and possessions had been robbed and plundered; and when he asked police for help, the officer replied, "I can't do anything for you, reconcile with them and end the problem."
Indeed, this has been the same attitude of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood led government: in all of the above cases, the government looked the other way, or, when called on it, denied reality. Thus the Coptic Holy Synod made it a point to assert in its statement that "nearly one month ago the media had published the violations against the Copts but the Egyptian authorities have not taken the necessary measures to protect the Egyptian families, who have the right to live safely in their homes." As for the Rafah incident—the only incident to reach the mainstream media—Prime Minister Hisham Qandil denied that Christians were forced to flee, saying "One or two [Christian] families chose to move to another place and they are totally free to do so like all Egyptian citizens."
Such governmental indifference is consistent with the fact that, despite promising greater representation for Egypt's Christians, President Morsi just broke his word by allowing only one Copt—a female—to represent the nation's 10-12 million Christians in the newly formed cabinet.
**Raymond Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and an Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum.