LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 16/12

Bible Quotation for today/Jesus Heals Two Men with Demons
’Matthew 08/28-34: "When Jesus came to the territory of Gadara on the other side of the lake, he was met by two men who came out of the burial caves there. These men had demons in them and were so fierce that no one dared travel on that road. At once they screamed, What do you want with us, you Son of God? Have you come to punish us before the right time? Not far away there was a large herd of pigs feeding. So the demons begged Jesus, If you are going to drive us out, send us into that herd of pigs. Go, Jesus told them; so they left and went off into the pigs. The whole herd rushed down the side of the cliff into the lake and was drowned. The men who had been taking care of the pigs ran away and went into the town, where they told the whole story and what had happened to the men with the demons. So everyone from the town went out to meet Jesus; and when they saw him, they begged him to leave their territory.

Latest analysis, editorials, studies, reports, letters & Releases from miscellaneous sources
Hezbollah’s strategy/By: Hazem Saghiyeh/Now Lebanon/October 15/12
Denial will not save the Lebanese Shiites/By: Hanin Ghaddar/October 15/12
Returning to the age of the camel/By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/12
The Brotherhood and the Salafi Spring/By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat/October 15/12

Hezbollah foes say support for Assad puts Lebanon at risk
BEIRUT, (Reuters) - Hezbollah's increasingly visible support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its latest military challenge to Israel has put the militant group on a collision course with domestic opponents who accuse it of dragging Lebanon towards regional conflict. While still denying it has sent forces to Syria to fight alongside soldiers trying to crush a 19-month-old uprising against Assad, Hezbollah has held a number of public funerals this month for fighters killed performing "jihadi duties". Security sources said the men were killed on Syrian territory. Hezbollah's political opponents, who have for months accused it of aiding Assad's forces, have rushed to condemn the group and warned its involvement in Syria could ignite sectarian tension within Lebanon where religious factions fought a 1975-1990 civil war. In a defiant speech on Thursday night, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Shi'ite group was not reinforcing its ally in Damascus. But his comments suggested that Hezbollah fighters may have been fighting in border regions of the poorly defined frontier. He also confirmed that Hezbollah had sent a reconnaissance drone deep into Israeli airspace, further escalating tensions with Israel which has threatened to bomb Hezbollah's patron Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme.
Nasrallah's speech was "aggressive towards all of his opponents in the Arab world, inside Lebanon and Israel", said Nabil Boumonsef, a columnist at the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar.
"He has put Lebanon and all of us in the eye of the storm," he said, reflecting growing criticism of a group which six years ago was lionised across the Arab world for standing up to Israeli military might in a 34-day conflict. Hezbollah, Boumonsef said, "will pay the price of this - and also Lebanon as it will deepen the division and fragmentation". The revolt against Assad has turned into a civil war with sectarian dimensions, largely pitting the majority Sunni Muslims against Assad's minority Alawite community, which is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam. Tensions between Sunnis and Shi'ites have been rumbling in Lebanon ever since the end of the civil war, but resurfaced when former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, a Sunni, was killed in 2005. Hariri supporters accused Syria and then Hezbollah of killing him - a charge they both deny. An international tribunal accused several Hezbollah members of involvement in the murder. But now the sectarian differences which Hezbollah was able to bridge when it played the role of resistance movement against Israel have deepened with its support for Assad.
FOCUS ON ARMS
After the funeral of Hezbollah fighter Hussein Nimr, attended by more than 1,000 mourners in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley this week, former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a Sunni and a fierce Hezbollah opponent, said political leaders must take a stand to halt Hezbollah's "slide towards the armed conflict in Syria". "This military involvement in the fighting ... would expose Lebanon to unforeseen dangers which it cannot bear and would threaten coexistence in Lebanon, as well as Muslims and Arabs, with unprecedented strife," Siniora said. But Hezbollah is the only faction in Lebanon to retain its heavy weapons and is unlikely to be willing to give these up without a fight. In its strongholds it power is unassailable, even by the Lebanese army. There are mounting calls however for it to put those arms under some form of state supervision. In September, President Michel Suleiman proposed that Hezbollah's weapons, which include an arsenal of missiles which the group says can strike anywhere in Israel, be put under the command of the Lebanese army. Hezbollah is not the only force in Lebanon to be drawn into Syria's conflict, in which activists say 30,000 people have been killed in deepening violence.
Arms and fighters have been smuggled across the border to support Syrian rebels, mainly from Sunni Muslim areas in the eastern Bekaa Valley and northern Akkar province. "Everyone who (who fuels the violence in Syria) is playing with our blood," Boumonsef said, slamming both Assad supporters and opponents in Lebanon but singling out Hezbollah for particular criticism. "The level of intervention in the Syria crisis differs from one side to the other," he said. "While some offer a supportive environment and maybe help smuggling and other issues, Hezbollah is involved to a greater extent than that." Prime Minister Mikati, a Sunni Muslim who had close ties to Syria before taking office, has increasingly struggled to insulate his country from the violence raging across the border. Street fighting has erupted frequently in the northern city of Tripoli, home to an Alawite minority and staunchly anti-Assad Sunni Muslim majority, and fighting has spilled over the border from Syria. Lebanon's own sectarian faultlines and political divisions have yet to heal, more than 20 years after the civil war ended. "We are entering a period in Lebanon which could be very violent," said newspaper columnist Sarkis Naoum. "We are living in instability now ... and I am afraid we are heading towards an explosion."

Geagea: Hezbollah’s drone ‘unjustified’
October 15, 2012/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said on Monday Israel’s violations of Lebanese airspace did not justify Hezbollah’s decision to send a drone over Israel.
“[Israel’s] violation of Lebanese airspace does not justify Hezbollah’s [action], especially since the scars of the [2006] July War have not yet healed. What Hezbollah does for Iranian reasons makes it fully responsible for involving Lebanon in regional struggles,” Geagea said following the LF bloc’s meeting held at Maarab.“Sending the drone [signifies] a direct Iranian message to Israel and Western countries,” he added. Geagea also said that “making such dangerous decisions [to send the drone] was the government’s responsibility and not a party’s responsibility, no matter how [powerful] it is.”
He added that the cabinet should devise a plan, implemented by the army, to address the issue of Israel’s violations of Lebanese airspace.
Last week, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that that his party had dispatched the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that was shot down over Israel. He added that the drone was manufactured in Iran but assembled in Lebanon. Geagea also addressed the commemoration of the October 13, 1990 events, saying: “On this day, [we] cannot but remember all the martyrs who fell.”
“Unfortunately some [used] this memory to dig graves and hold others responsible for their own mistakes…[which] placed Lebanon under cruel occupation,” he added in an implicit reference to Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun.On March 14, 1989 Aoun declared "The Liberation War" against Syria’s occupation, but was defeated on October 13,1990 and exiled to France. He returned to Lebanon on May 7, 2005, eleven days after the withdrawal of Syrian troops.-NOW Lebanon

March 14 Calls on Premier to Resign, Lashes Out at Iranian Defense Minister Statements
Naharnet /The March 14 alliance called on Prime Minister Najib Miqati to immediately resign over Hizbullah's drone that penetrated Israeli airspace over the weekend, considering it a “defiance of the Lebanese people's will,” al-Joumhouria newspaper reported on Monday. Leadership sources from the opposition held Miqati responsible for any new war between Lebanon and Israel, noting that Hizbullah insists on “usurping” the state's decision-making power and keeping Lebanon under the control of Iran. Sources told the newspaper that the statements by Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi on Sunday unveil his country's control over the Lebanese state. Vahidi scoffed at Israel's air defenses on Sunday as he confirmed that Tehran had provided Hizbullah with the sophisticated drone which overflew the Jewish state. "It is natural to use whatever we have at our disposal at the necessary time to defend the lands of the Islamic world," the general said. "This move shows that Hizbullah is fully prepared ... and will respond to the Zionist regime."Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's acknowledgment of the drone which Israel shot down on October 6 came shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hizbullah and vowed to defend his country against further "threats." The March 14 sources rejected the statements by Vahidi, pointing out the Lebanese state is the only authority that is entitled to determine if Hizbullah has the right to launch the drone from its territories. “This stance (by Iran) proves that Hizbullah is merely an Iranian tool,” the sources told the newspaper.
They considered that the Iranian description violates Lebanon's sovereignty.

Report: Hizbullah's Drone Photographed Secret Israeli Military Bases
Naharnet /Hizbullah's, Iranian-made, drone that penetrated Israel surveilled live images of “secret” Israeli military bases, according to Britain's Sunday Times newspaper. The newspaper reported that the drone transmitted pictures of preparations for Israel's “biggest” joint military exercise with the U.S. army, which began last week. The drone also photographed “Israel's ballistic missile sites, main airfields and, possibly, its nuclear reactor in Dimona,” the newspaper pointed out. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's acknowledgment of the drone which Israel shot down on October 6 came shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hizbullah and vowed to defend his country against further "threats."The infiltration marked a rare breach of Israel's tightly guarded airspace. Hizbullah had been the leading suspect because of its arsenal of sophisticated Iranian weapons and a history of trying to deploy similar aircraft. Middle East sources told the Sunday Times that the drone was launched by “technicians from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, with the help of Hizbullah.”According to the newspaper, the drone “is believed to be the new Shahed-129, which was unveiled by Tehran, with a range of up to 1,200 miles and a flight duration of 24 hours.”An Israeli defense source blamed “unfamiliar stealth elements” for the army's failure to detect it.
Iran unveiled in September a long-range drone named Shahed-129, which can reach most of the Middle East countries, including Israel. In July 2006, the Israeli military shot down an unarmed drone operated by Hizbullah over the Jewish state's territorial waters. On April 12, 2005, another pilotless Hizbullah aircraft succeeded in overflying part of northern Israel without being downed. Israel routinely sends F-16 fighter planes over Lebanon, in violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 war. The Israeli planes have often broken the sound barrier over Beirut and other places as a show of strength, most recently after the drone incident. Thousands of U.S. and Israeli troops began a joint exercise last week to show their ability to defend the country against a missile attack that is expected to follow any air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Hezbollah’s strategy
Hazem Saghiyeh/Now Lebanon
It is by no means surprising for Hezbollah to be fighting in Syria, killing Syrians and having some militants killed by them. If anyone is surprised by that, it means that they are so naïve as to believe Hezbollah’s self-painted portrait as a Lebanese resistance tasked with protecting Lebanon from Israel’s aggressions and presumed greediness. This story is about as far-fetched from reality as it can possibly be, for believing Hezbollah’s description of its role is an insult to logic as proven by countless facts and events. Hezbollah was originally intended as a regional tool. Ever since its emergence in the early 1980s, the Iranian and Syrian regimes took turns in providing it with training, armament, sponsorship and supplies. This was merely in return for its committing to missions, such as the one the party is currently undertaking in Syria. Therefore, criticism starts with a more drastic issue, namely Hezbollah’s role in breaking and destroying Lebanon in order to preserve the respective regional interests of the Iranian and Syrian regimes. Based on this “strategy”, a noticeable transformation has occurred as a result of the involvement in Syria. Between the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and the Syrian revolution in 2011, the Lebanese were only afraid of their country being forcibly involved in one conflict they could avoid. The destructive Israeli aggression of 2006 was brought upon Lebanon in 2006 and is still likely to be repeated for several reasons, the most recent of which being the famous Ayoub drone. While the fears pertaining to Israel in Lebanon did not diminish, fear found itself another source as of 2011: If Syria is considered a [suitable] terrain to fight against the Syrian people regardless of pretexts, this may prompt Syrians and Lebanese who support the Syrian revolution to consider Lebanon a suitable terrain to fight against this revolution. This sure recipe for disaster is made even uglier and more dangerous by the fact that the political conflict has acquired two different sectarian colors, which turns it into an open and bloody conflict. For the umpteenth time, this sheds a light on three facts:
First, Hezbollah has nothing to do with the will of the Lebanese people, which is supposed to be reflected and represented by their elected representative bodies. This has even started to embarrass key state figures, such as the president, which had displayed an amazing ability so far to coexist with the major violation epitomized by Hezbollah.
Second, not even children now actually believe [the pretext of] fighting Israel. It all started with “what lies beyond Haifa” and may lead us to “what lies beyond Aleppo.”
Third, and most importantly, Hezbollah’s strategy is a recipe for doom befalling a people, a nation and a region. Such a “strategy” is bound to lead to a series of snowballing disasters.
**This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Monday October 15, 2012

Denial will not save the Lebanese Shiites
Hanin Ghaddar, October 15, 2012
For the first time since its initiation, Hezbollah is reacting instead of acting. While trying to absorb the shockwaves resulting from the Syrian uprising, the Party of God has little space to strategize. That’s why we are seeing more and more irrational behavior and ill-advised decisions by its leaders. Hezbollah has put the Shiite community on the front line against the rebels in Syria by claiming the support of the vast majority of the Shiites in Lebanon, something that still needs to be established. They have thereby exposed Lebanon to many dangers, one of which is pushing the Lebanese into a potentially bloody Sunni-Shiite conflict.
Sending fighters to Syria to assist the Syrian regime in killing its own people is a bad idea, even by Hezbollah’s standards. Lebanese Shiite mothers have held back their pain when their sons were declared martyrs after fighting “the Israeli enemy,” but they cannot and will not accept such a loss for political alliances or regional power games. The rules of the game have changed, and people have been through too much agony. It doesn’t matter if Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah denies it or not; people are not foolish, and the Shiites of Lebanon know more than anyone else of the secret funerals happening in their villages and towns, of “martyrs dying while performing his jihadist duties.”Now the Syrian rebels have warned Hezbollah that they would move the ongoing battle in Syria to “the heart” of Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh—a Hezbollah stronghold—if the group failed to halt its support for the Syrian regime.
Whether to distract attention from the first scandal or not, Hezbollah decided a couple of days later to send a drone over Israel, calling it an achievement. Of course the drone was immediately destroyed by the Israelis, reminding us of the great achievements and “divine victory” of the 2006 war. Nevertheless, Hezbollah decided to take a military risk, at a moment when the whole country is on the verge of a breakdown. This means one of two things: they are either stupid or irresponsible. But of course these decisions are exactly like the drone itself: made in Iran and executed in Lebanon. After placing itself, and the Lebanese Shiites behind it, in direct confrontation with the Syrian rebels, Hezbollah has removed itself from its main mission—the Resistance—leaving its supporters at loss to understand what is the real reason why they stand behind this group. These supporters are confused, alarmed and concerned. Hezbollah is not the Resistance they have backed for 30 years. Hezbollah is not as pure and honest as they have always thought. But the question for them still is: Who else is going to protect them, from Israel, from the Salafists, and from the monsters Hezbollah has imagined for them recently?
It is a vicious circle that can only be broken by two endeavors:
- Hezbollah making compromises to protect Lebanon and the Lebanese, such as stop sending its fighters to Syria,
- Or, the Lebanese, Shiite and not, should focus their efforts on developing a serious political rhetoric that would constitute a Lebanese alternative for the Shiite community, one that is not threatening or intimidating.
Both of these options are unlikely to happen in the near future because Hezbollah is not in the mind to make any compromise. After all, Iran decides how Hezbollah acts or reacts, and Hezbollah executes. Lebanon and the Lebanese, who have the exclusive right to decide on issues of war and peace, were not and will never be consulted by the Iranian regime. Lebanon has been given to Hezbollah as their battlefield to carry out Iranian orders.
The Lebanese are also preoccupied with which electoral law would guarantee more seats to this or that party in the 2013 polls. Therefore, we should be prepared for the worst. With this gloomy situation, the only solution left is for the Shiites to start detaching themselves from Hezbollah, at least from certain actions by the party. One can support the resistance against Israeli aggression and still stand against the atrocities committed by the Syrian regime against its own people. On the other hand, the Lebanese who have been outspoken against the Party of God and have repeatedly isolated the Shiites in Lebanon, intentionally or not, should also start to genuinely reach out to the Shiites, despite the immense obstacles.
The solution can only be Lebanese, and if we are immune to the sectarian rhetoric pushed by Iran, the Jihadists in Syria and their funders in the Gulf States, then no one can turn Lebanon into their battlefield, not even Hezbollah. Hezbollah is today strong because we allowed it to be. All the regional interference in Lebanon happened because we did not stop it.
The Syrian regime will be gone, and all Lebanese know it is only a matter of time. Whether they like it or not, Hezbollah and its supporters need to seriously start thinking of what comes after that, because the day-after is not going to be all sunshine for Hezbollah.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the managing editor of NOW Lebanon. She tweets @haningdr

The Brotherhood and the Salafi Spring
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid/Asharq Alawsat
The Arab Spring was not only a spring in terms of Arab revolutions but also on other levels, including with regards to the Salafis. This is not because of the major presence imposed by the Salafi trend on the political map, especially in Egypt, after the first genuine and transparent parliamentary elections there, but rather because of changes in the Salafi trend’s discourse.
The Salafi movements traditionally adopted very strict criteria in their view of ruling legitimacy, and hence their entry into politics clashed with elements of their literature. This explains the extreme confusion that first characterized Salafi stances towards the Egyptian revolution against Hosni Mubarak, but in the end the Salafis opted in favor of the revolution by participating in the demonstrations to topple the President. This stance against the ruler of the country, contrary to Salafi literature, was the beginning of several subsequent pragmatic Salafi positions. It seems that their support base, particularly the younger members, have exerted pressure upon the leaders of Salafi movements, their symbols and their sheikhs.
The Salafi trend excelled in interpreting the course of its rivals the Muslim Brotherhood; the best organized and most experienced Islamist entity in the political arena. The Salafis recognized that their Brotherhood rivals are one coherent body, harmonious in their decisions and choices, as well as in their moves on the street. The Salafi movement on the other hand, despite the rapid spread of its ideology and its acceptance on the Egyptian street, consisted of a number of factions linked within a weak singular entity, with varying degrees of interdependence. There is al-Da'wa al-Salafia, the largest and most widespread Salafi entity, along with Jamaat Ansar al-Sunna, al-Salafia al-Harakia and al-Salafia al-Awali Amria, the latter two strictly adhering to the principle of “obedience to the ruler”. There is also the well-known al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya and al-Gama'a Al-Shar'iyya, in addition to various Salafi scholars who chose not to associate with any of these groups, preferring to communicate with everyone.
In my opinion, the post-revolution stances adopted by the Egyptian Salafi movements are no less surprising than the significant victories they achieved in the parliamentary elections. Most notably, the Salafis have opted to coexist with the new Muslim Brotherhood rule by showing much restraint, and by not entering into vast areas of dispute with the Brotherhood’s orientation. These areas of dispute are certainly much smaller now than the areas of cooperation between the two Islamist factions. They have communicated effectively and unified their stances towards a number of issues, such as: The referendum on constitutional amendments, maintaining Article II of the constitution (Islam as the religion of the state), and the battle over Egypt’s Islamic identity. The Salafis and the Brotherhood were also unanimous in calling for the elections to be postponed whilst a constitution is drafted, and they jointly undertook a million-man march on the 29th July 2011. The two Islamist groups also share positions on the role of the army in the forthcoming constitution, and hold reservations against the “al-Azhar document”, despite accepting it in principle.
A number of Salafi symbols and leaders have sought to communicate with the Muslim Brotherhood trend in its new political reign, and have put aside their differences and united efforts. These include the popular scholars Sheikh Mohammed Hassan, Sheikh Mohammed Abdel Maksoud, Sheikh Ahmad al-Naqib, Dr. Safwat Hegazi and Dr. Yasser Brhamme, who recently met with Sheikh Qaradawi and many others from all colors of the Islamic rainbow. This Egyptian Salafi maturity in interpreting the political scene is what some Salafis in a number of Gulf States have been lacking, instead busying themselves with their severe harassment of fellow Islamists from other factions. They have yet to strengthen their own approach and they have not allowed others to operate away from their noise and uproar. It is interesting that these same Salafis in the Gulf have embarked on less “pure” and logical alliances with currents that are fundamentally hostile to Islamic ideology, even in its moderate, pragmatic guise. Hence, sometimes, we find those who advocate democracy and secularism in the same trench as those committed to the fundamentals of religion.

Returning to the age of the camel
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
Egypt has received its latest heavy political blow, against the backdrop of the Cairo Criminal Court’s ruling over what has become known as the Battle of the Camel [referring to the clashes between protestors and pro-Mubarak supporters in February 2011]. The court acquitted all 24 defendants, prompting the Egyptian President to attempt to dismiss the prosecutor general, only to later go back on this decision as it did not fall within his presidential remit. However, the story here is not about objecting to the Battle of the Camel case verdict, nor is it about the controversy surrounding the dismissal of the prosecutor general; the story is much bigger than this. The story is about those who want to return to the age of the camel, not just to protest against the Battle of the Camel court rulings. The most notable example of this is the recent statement by Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s spiritual guide. Al-Qaradawi called for pilgrims in Mecca to pray against what he called the enemies of the Islamic community, and then he called for the retrial of those acquitted in the Battle of the Camel trial. Al-Qaradawi said: “Unfortunately, the prosecutor general and his judges are untrustworthy. Thus President Mursi dismissed [the prosecutor general] and reappointed him as Ambassador to the Vatican. Yet he said ‘you cannot dismiss me’, and this is strange, is he a prophet?”
From here it is clear that we are facing a state of chaos, and a constant desire to destroy the concept of the state, its laws and regulations. We are witnessing “spiritual” authorities attempting to outweigh the state authorities and the law, yet al-Qaradawi is not the Grand Mufti of Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, or Muslims in General! Who is al-Qaradawi to demand that pilgrims pray in accordance with his views, interests and fluctuating policies? Politicizing the pilgrimage is a violation of Saudi law, and ever since the inception of the Saudi state the Hajj has never been allowed to be an arena for political debate. If al-Qaradawi calls upon pilgrims to pray against the enemies of the Islamic community during the Hajj, and some of al-Qaradawi’s so-called enemies are Muslims as well, then those Muslims may think it is also their duty to pray against who they believe to be enemies of the Islamic community, irrespective of al-Qaradawi’s opinions. Is there anything more controversial than this? How can al-Qaradawi say this, and yet sincerely recite the verse: “There is to be no sexual relations and no disobedience and no disputing during Hajj [Surat al-Baqarah, 197]”?
As for al-Qaradawi’s assertion that the Egyptian prosecutor general is not a prophet and therefore should not be isolated [from political repercussions], this is another perplexing story. What is the value of laws, regulations and constitutions then? What is the point of talking about the state of law and institutions if al-Qaradawi wants to marginalize and undermine them with a political stance coated in religious rhetoric? What is the fundamental value of the judiciary if it has to pass judgments in accordance with the wishes of the street? Here we are not talking about laws and courts, but a desire for revenge.
The danger in al-Qaradawi’s statements is that they undermine the state and diminish its prestige. They will only bring us back to the age of the camel, rather than leading a victory for the victims of the Battle of the Camel! The danger of these statements is that they attempt to impose a higher sense of authority upon the Sunnis, by drawing an alternate reality and by exploiting events that affect Arab public opinion and are affected by it. It is therefore very important that we pay attention to this danger.

New W. intelligence: Syrian rebels don’t have the numbers to win
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 15, 2012/The revised estimates compiled by US and French intelligence agencies on the relative strength of Syrian government and rebel forces have given Washington and Arab capitals backing the Syrian opposition pause. The Obama administration has built its policies around an estimated 70,000 rebel fighters, whereas the revised figure, according to debkafile’s intelligence sources, appears to be less than half - around 30,000. With some 3,000 jihadis, Al Qaeda-linked groups make up around one-tenth of total rebel strength.
Officials in Washington and Paris are trying to play down the revised estimates because it throws out the basic premise of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy that Bashar Assad can’t last more than six months against the rebel offensive. US military experts now admit, albeit without attribution, that the overall balance of strength – and not just the numbers - has radically changed in the Assad regime’s favor, due to direct Iranian military input: Military advisers of the elite Al Qods Brigades are conducting crash combat courses for the 70,000- strong pro-Assad Alawite militia and sections of the Syrian army still loyal to the ruler.
This qualitative injection into Assad’s military sources will substantially extend the life expectancy of his regime.
For now, US President Barack Obama does not appear to be affected by the new figures or about to change his firm position against direct Western or regional intervention in Syria. He is still pressuring Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to keep a lid on the escalating Turkish-Syrian hostilities. He is also holding Saudi Arabia and Qatar back from supplying the rebels with heavy anti-tank and anti-air weapons for withstanding Syrian assaults.
At the same time, the situation in Syria is incendiary enough to shoot into an unforeseen direction in the three weeks remaining up until the US presidential election and may force the president’s hand. The Syrian crisis will certainly figure large in his debate with Republican candidate Mitt Romney Tuesday, Oct. 16, along with the security issues raised by the murder of four US diplomats in Libya by al Qaeda on Sept. 11. Our sources in Paris report that President France Hollande’s take on the new intelligence estimates counters the Obama position. He is urging direct intervention in Syria for the creation of safe havens for opposition forces and refugees, a no-fly zone and a supply of heavy weapons to give the insurgents a chance to retilt the tide of the war in their favor. He is galvanized by reports from the battlefield that the rebels face serious reverses in the face of the Assad army’s numerical superiority and Iranian, Russian and Hizballah aid. This could lead to a hopeless stalemate in the Syrian crisis, which the Syrian ruler would use to grind down the opposition’s strength and reassert his authority, helped along by the bitter divisions in Syrian opposition ranks. For now, Israel’s leaders are lining up publicly with the Obama prediction of a foreshortened Assad reign and overestimate of rebel strength and prospects. They continue to assert that the Syrian ruler’s days are numbered. Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi is more reserved. During a visit IDF forces ranged on the Golan on Oct. 3, he spoke cautiously about “the eroding authority of the Syrian regime.”

Report: Egypt on high alert in Sinai
Elior Levy Published: 10.15.12/ynetnews
Cairo's forces in peninsula on high alert fearing Salafi radicals will execute terror attack following hit on Gaza operative/Security sources in Sinai said Monday that Egypt has placed its forces in the peninsula on high alert. Cairo reportedly fears that Sinai's terror groups would attempt to execute a terror attack against Israel following the elimination of one of the leaders of a radical Salafi group in an IAF strike on Gaza, Saturday.According to a report in the Palestinian news agency Maan, the Jihad groups in Sinai – especially al-Tawhid wal-Jihad Ansar Beit el-Makdas – may seek to retaliate from within Egyptian soil, or by sending car bombs to explode near Egyptian military posts in northern Sinai. Egyptian sources told the agency that Cairo's security forces have been given intelligence indicating that such retaliation – especially one targeting Egyptian posts – may be possible within the next few days.
*Jonathan Gonen contributed to this report

European satellite provider blocks Iran TV
Associated Press Published: 10.15.12/Eutelsat takes 19 Iranian TV, radio channels off the air as part of EU sanctions on Islamic Republic
European satellite provider Eutelsat has taken 19 Iranian television and radio broadcasters off the air as a result of European Union sanctions. Eutelsat spokeswoman Vanessa O'Connor said that the channels operated by Iranian state broadcaster Irib have been blocked for viewers in Europe and elsewhere as of Monday morning. Eutelsat says a new round of EU sanctions against Iran adopted earlier this year included Irib. The EU toughened its sanctions against Iran as part of broader efforts to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Iran's Press TV said Iran's broadcasting company could seek legal action against Eutelsat. Press TV said it is among the channels cut by the Eutelsat decision. Others include Farsi-language channels for Iranian expatriates and Arabic-language offerings, including the news channel al-Alam. Most are still visible in Iran.

Ahmadinejad: Lebanese Resistance is Source of Pride for People of Region
Naharnet/Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stressed on Sunday that Lebanon is a “center for resistance and perseverance against occupiers.”He said: “Lebanon's resistance is a source of pride for the peoples of the region and all those seeking freedom and justice.” He made his remarks during the international loyalty to the resistance conference in Iran and on the occasion of the second anniversary of his trip to Lebanon. “The Iranian and Lebanese people enjoy several cultural and historic similarities. They both call for peace, justice, and fraternity with all peoples,” he continued. “They oppose regional and international occupation, oppression, and arrogance,” Ahmadinejad added. “The Iranian and Lebanese people call for compassion, resistance, and perseverance,” he stated. Addressing officials, he urged them to cooperate and learn from the Iranian and Lebanese experiences, emphasizing the need to bolster ties between the two countries. “The Iranian people will always stand by the brave Lebanese people,” he declared. The Iranian president made his remarks in light of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's acknowledgment on October11 that his party had flew an unmanned drone over Israel on October 6. The drone had captured photographs of “sensitive” locations in Israel and the action has sparked the condemnation of the March 14 opposition in Lebanon that has deemed the act a violation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1701 and the authority of the Lebanese state.