Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for July 09/12
Now Lebanon News Bulletin/updated around the clock
U.S. Concerned over Wadi Khaled Shelling, Urges Syrian Respect for Lebanese Sovereignty
Geagea: Some parties against investigation of assassination attempts
Chamoun: Syrian regime behind Harb’s ‘assassination’ attempt
Future bloc MP Khaled al-Daher threatens to escalate protests if Sunni cleric case not resolved
Aoun against transferring Sunni cleric case to Justice Council
Ongoing Contacts to Discuss Referral of Abdul Wahed’s Killing to Judicial Council
Daher threatens to escalate protests if Sunni cleric case not resolved
President Gemayel Urges 'Worst Govt. in Lebanon History' to Resign
Mansour Shrugs off Criticism, Says Syrian Gunfire on North not Premeditated
Report: Israel in State of Alert over Fears of Lebanon Water Diversion 
EDL Contract Workers Protest across Lebanon, Warn of Escalatory Measures
Charbel Advises Equipping Phone Call Center to Avoid Telecom Data Row
Akkar MPs demand killing of Sunni clerics referred to Judicial Council
Annan to Put 'Approach' to Rebels after Assad Talks
Syria Conducts Naval Live Fire Exercises
Iraq Kurds Begin Sending Oil to Turkey without Baghdad Consent
Putin Says Syria Needs 'Peaceful Political Solution'
Annan to head to Iran after Syria, reports says
Russia hosts top Syrian dissident for talks
Egypt Speaker Invites Parliament to Convene Tuesday
Egypt's reinstated parliament to convene Tuesday
Two Shia die in clashes with Saudi police, activists say
EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso , Netanyahu talk Iran, peace process

Annan is a failure
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=30264
Throughout the duration of UN-Arab League peace envoy Kofi Annan’s mission in Syria, we, and others like us, have said that his mission has failed, and that in order to protect the lives of the Syrians, Mr. Annan must declare so himself. In this regard, I wrote repeatedly stressing that Annan himself was not the failure, rather it was his plan that had been unsuccessful, as a result of the tyrant of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad. But today, after three months of Annan’s mission, and the death toll in Syria - at the hands of the al-Assad regime - reaching 17,000, we must say that it is not only Annan’s mission that has failed, but that Annan personally must also be considered a failure, having granted al-Assad one opportunity after another. From the outset he has never said that al-Assad is untrustworthy and does not intend for any initiative to succeed, and this has been evident since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution 17 months ago. Annan in Syria has behaved like [Mustafa] al-Dabi’s Arab League monitoring team, yet the difference between al-Dabi and Annan is that the former wanted to appease al-Assad, whilst Annan wants to appease his political and diplomatic ego.
Annan does not even bother to engage with Syrian or Arab public opinion, he only speaks to the Western media, most recently the French publication “Le Monde”. Even though those dying are the Syrians, the crisis itself is in Syria, the Arab world is an active player and the Arab public has a real and sincere conscience with regards to the current events, Mr. Annan has not bothered to engage with the Syrian or Arab public over the past three months. During the recent Friends of Syria conference in Paris, the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed was right to say that Annan’s failure to attend that meeting, staying in Geneva instead, was shameful. Not only did Annan not bother to attend the Friends of Syria conference in Paris, despite the fact that there were representatives from nearly 100 Arab and Western states, but he also called for the participation of Iran in order to resolve the Syrian crisis, because it is an active player! This is pure political malleability, and I cannot use a kinder expression than that. The problem with some politicians, diplomats especially, is that they want to reach any form of result in order to say that they have created a solution, and if the solution is for the tyrant of Damascus to remain in power, and to reward Iran by granting it legitimacy to interfere in Syrian affairs, just like Washington granted it legitimacy in Iraq, then the Syrians will not accept this, and we as Arabs must also reject this openly, clearly and without compromise. It is unfortunate, and infuriating, that Mr. Annan always asks: What is the alternative to his mission in Syria? Such talk is redundant. The alternative to his mission is for Russia and China to face up to the game that we are all aware al-Assad is playing. They must return to the Security Council and stop supporting the tyrant of Damascus. The fact that Annan’s mission has long since failed also means that the international community must now face its responsibility to stop the al-Assad killing machine, instead of granting the Syrian President opportunity after opportunity to kill unarmed civilians.Therefore, today we say that not only has his mission failed, but Mr. Annan himself is also a failure, especially when he gives al-Assad once chance after another, and wants to give Iran a degree of legitimacy it does not deserve in Syria.

U.S. Concerned over Wadi Khaled Shelling, Urges Syrian Respect for Lebanese Sovereignty
Naharnet 09 July 2012/U.S. Ambassador Maura Connelly voiced concern on Monday over the cross-border shelling into northern Lebanon that left two Lebanese and one Syrian refugee dead.
Connelly “voiced U.S. government concern over recent reports of cross-border shelling into northern Lebanon and expressed her condolences for the deaths of Lebanese civilians,” the U.S. embassy said in a statement. Her remarks were made during a meeting with President Michel Suleiman at Baabda palace. “She called on the Syrian government to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon” and “underscored that the U.S. remains concerned that developments in Syria not contribute to instability in Lebanon.”The deaths occurred on Saturday when shells hit several Lebanese towns in the northern area of Wadi Khaled. The statement also said that Suleiman and the ambassador discussed the political situation in Lebanon and regional developments.

Geagea: Some parties against investigation of assassination attempts
July 9, 2012 /Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said in remarks published on Monday that some parties represented in cabinet did not want investigations into assassination attempts to be launched.
“Handing [security forces] incomplete telecom data clearly shows that some parties [represented in] the government did not want the relevant authorities to investigate assassination attempts,” Geagea told L’Orient-Le Jour newspaper. Geagea, who said he was a target of an assassination attempt in April, added that President Michel Sleiman and Prime Minister Najib Mikati who “repeatedly said telecom data should be handed over” to security forces must take a firm position on the matter. March 14 MP Boutros Harb was also reportedly a victim of an assassination attempt on Thursday.
-NOW Lebanon

Future bloc MP Khaled al-Daher threatens to escalate protests if Sunni cleric case not resolved
July 9, 2012 /Future bloc MP Khaled al-Daher threatened to escalate protests if the killing case of Sunni cleric Ahmad Abdel Wahed was not resolved, the National News Agency reported.
“We await justice to be achieved according to law and based on the constitution. If [officials] do not fulfill their duties, [we will escalate protests] even if we have to [launch] civil disobedience or protest in front of Prime Minister [Najib] Mikati’s residence,” Daher said. Political and religious figures held a meeting on Sunday in Akkar’s town of Bireh to discuss the case of Abdel Wahed and the release from jail of 11 of 16 people suspected of being involved in the killing. Daher said during the sit-down that roads in the northern Lebanese area of Akkar will not be blocked. “We will not block roads in Akkar, and we will not allow strife between Akkar residents and the Lebanese army,” Daher added. Army troops shot dead Abdel Wahed and his bodyguard in May when his convoy allegedly failed to stop at a checkpoint in North Lebanon, the scene of deadly clashes linked to the uprising in Syria.His death sparked tension in many Lebanese areas where protesters blocked roads using burning tires. In Beirut, two people were killed in street battles in Tariq al-Jedideh following the incident. Last week, 11 of the 16 suspects, including military officers, were released.-NOW Lebanon

Chamoun: Syrian regime behind Harb’s ‘assassination’ attempt
July 9, 2012 /National Liberal Party leader MP Dori Chamoun said in remarks published Monday that the Syrian regime was behind the “assassination” attempt against March 14 MP Boutros Harb.
“Whether it was Hezbollah or any other Lebanese militia… behind the assassination attempt against Harb, the Syrian regime is [for sure] the sponsor of terrorist operations in Lebanon… and its allies implement them,” Chamoun told Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa. On Thursday, Harb was targeted by an apparent assassination bid after an “intruder” wielding a knife was apprehended by security guards in the MP’s office while two detonators were found in the building. -NOW Lebanon

Ongoing Contacts to Discuss Referral of Abdul Wahed’s Killing to Judicial Council
Naharnet/09 July 2012/Prime Minister Najib Miqati held several meetings on Monday to discuss the possibility of referring the killing of Sheikh Ahmed Abdul Wahed and his companion to the Judicial Council. “The ministers will vote on the issue just like all the other decision taken by the cabinet,” Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi told reporters at the Grand Serail after meeting with the premier.
Miqati also discussed with Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji the security situation in the country. Earlier, As Safir newspaper quoted the Prime Minister as saying: “Critical consultations are ongoing to resolve the issue.”He pointed out that the decision whether to refer the killing of Abdul Wahed and his companion Sheikh Mohammed Merheb to the Judicial Council or not will become clear before Monday’s cabinet session. On May 20, Abdul Wahed and his companion were killed at an Army checkpoint in in the Akkar town of al-Kweikhat. Protests broke out on Friday in light of a decision to release on bail three army officers and eight soldiers who were detained over the case, while five others remain under arrest. Angry residents in Akkar condemned the decision and blocked roads in protest.
Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun refuses to refer the matter to the Judicial Council. Aoun announced on Saturday the “military court in Lebanon is authorized to achieve justice regarding the case.”The matter is expected to create another dispute among the cabinet members as al-Liwaa newspaper reported that the ministers of National Struggle Front, led by Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, would cooperate with the demands of the supporters of Abdul Wahed. According to the daily, the stance of AMAL and Hizbullah ministers remains vague. For his part, Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Khaled Zahraman told Free Lebanon radio that Akkar MPs will hold a meeting with President Michel Suleiman to demand the referral of the killing to the Judicial Council. On Sunday, Akkar MP Khaled al-Daher, who is a member of al-Mustaqbal bloc, warned of civil disobedience if the cabinet failed to refer the case to the Council. He also threatened to stage a sit-in outside Miqati’s residence and the Grand Serail until justice is achieved.

Report: Israel in State of Alert over Fears of Lebanon Water Diversion
Naharnet /09 July 2012/Israel is mulling responses to the possibility that Lebanon will divert water from the Hasbani river under the guise of the construction of a tourism center near the border with the Jewish state, the Jerusalem Post reported on Monday.A senior Israeli army officer in the Northern Command told the newspaper that the center could be used to divert water from the river, which supplies 25 percent of the Jordan river’s waters. Israel is concerned about the site’s proximity to the border, which lies not far from the Israeli town of Metulla.“We are keeping a close eye on what is happening there,” the officer said. “Our concerns range from the diversion of water to the possibility that the tourism center will be used as cover to launch attacks against Israel.”The Hasbani runs for 40 kilometers in Lebanon before crossing the border and joining the Banias and Dan rivers at a point in northern Israel and later form the Jordan river.The Jerusalem Post said Israel has shared its concern with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and plans to raise the issue during one of the upcoming tripartite meetings held in Naqoura.“This could become a strategic problem,” another officer said.

Mansour Shrugs off Criticism, Says Syrian Gunfire on North not Premeditated
Naharnet/ 09 July 2012/Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour shrugged off criticism over Lebanon’s failure to file a complaint with the U.N. on the latest deaths of Lebanese in a cross-border attack in the northern area of Wadi Khaled, saying the Syrian shelling was not intentional.In remarks to al-Joumhouria daily published Monday and Tele Liban the day before, Mansour expressed regret at the death of two Lebanese in the shelling that took place over the weekend but said “such clashes do take place on the border of any country due to unintentional mistakes.”“We will continue our contacts through diplomatic channels to avoid such mistakes in the future although the Syrians don’t want them to take place,” he said. Heavy shelling from the Syrian side of the border on towns in the Wadi Khaled area during clashes between Syrian government troops and rebels, left two Lebanese dead and stirred panic among residents and criticism that the government was staying mum on the issue. “Had it been premeditated, we would have taken a different approach,” Mansour said. But a government source expressed regret at his remarks, telling An Nahar newspaper that the government will take the necessary measures to preserve the safety of the Lebanese on the border with Syria in the North and East.Mansour also justified a Lebanese complaint to the U.N. Security Council on Israel’s abduction of a shepherd ten days ago, by saying “the Jewish state is Lebanon’s historic enemy and carried out an aforethought attack.” “The latest aggression comes as part of a series of continued attacks committed (by Israel) since the adoption of (Security Council) resolution 1701 (in 2006), and which have reached so far 9,000 violations,” Mansour said.Israeli soldiers detained the young Lebanese shepherd for one day in a disputed area on the border between the two countries.

Annan to Put 'Approach' to Rebels after Assad Talks
Naharnet/09 July 2012/International envoy Kofi Annan said he agreed with President Bashar Assad on Monday on a new political "approach" to end Syria's conflict that would be put to the rebels.
"We discussed the need to end the violence and ways and means of doing so. We agreed an approach which I will share with the armed opposition," he told reporters after meeting Assad in Damascus.
The former U.N. chief, whose military observers in Syria have been grounded due to escalating violence, said he "stressed the importance of moving ahead with political dialogue, which the president accepted."Al-Watan newspaper, which is close to the government, said the Annan-Assad talks focused on the results of the Geneva meeting at the end of June of an international contact group on Syria.
They discussed means "to implement the results of the meeting ... on forming a transitional government in Syria that groups government and opposition representatives without mention of Assad's departure."
World powers at the meeting agreed a plan for a transition which did not make an explicit call for Assad to quit power, although the West and the opposition made clear it saw no role for him in a unity government. Annan said his talks were "constructive and candid," echoing Syrian foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi who termed the meeting "constructive and good."
On his Twitter account, Makdissi said: "We reassured Annan of Syria's commitment to implement the six-point plan and hoped other side is mutually committed."
Annan said he had received those assurances, but said the plan must be carried out "in a much better fashion" than before. "I am leaving Syria but we will continue our dialogue, and as I said, the approach we discussed about ending the violence will be shared with the armed opposition," Annan said. "We have a team here on the ground that will continue to do that and I encourage the government and other entities with influence to help us do that," he said. U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon called on Friday for the observer mission in Syria be scaled down and to refocus on political efforts to end the conflict.
The United Nations sent 300 observers to monitor an April 12 truce, but their mission was suspended in mid-June when chief observer Major General Robert Mood said the conditions for his team on the ground had become too dangerous. More than 17,000 people have now died since the uprising began in March last year, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Agence France Presse.

Akkar MPs demand killing of Sunni clerics referred to Judicial Council
July 9, 2012 /Akkar MPs met on Monday with President Michel Sleiman and called on him to refer the case of the killing of Sheikh Ahmad Abdel Wahed and his bodyguard to the Judicial Council, the National News Agency reported. The delegation included MP Hadi Hobeich, MP Khaled Zahraman, MP Nidal Tohme and MP Riad Rahal. In May, army troops shot dead Abdel Wahed and his bodyguard, Sheikh Mohammad Hussein Merheb, when their convoy allegedly failed to stop at a checkpoint in North Lebanon, the scene of deadly clashes linked to the uprising in Syria. His death sparked tension in many Lebanese areas where protesters blocked roads using burning tires. In Beirut, two people were killed in street battles in Tariq al-Jedideh. -NOW Lebanon

Lemonade and death
July 9, 2012 /Now Lebanon
It was a weekend that summed up the insanity that is gripping Lebanon. On Sunday, the Foreign Ministry filed a complaint to the United Nations citing the June 29 detention of Youssef Zahra, a Lebanese shepherd, by the Israeli army in Marj al-Teiss. The incident, according to the statement, was a “violation of Lebanese sovereignty,” that was a “provocation that serves to increase tensions along the border” and a “threat to civil peace and international security.” Ever since NOW Lebanon was established in 2007, we have reiterated the sacredness of Lebanon’s territorial integrity and called for the formal demarcation of all Lebanon’s borders, so we wholly condemn any violation, no matter how minor.
But a bit of perspective, not to mention fairness, would not go amiss. It is highly unlikely that Israeli forces deliberately “abducted” or “kidnapped” Zahra. As has been the case for years now, he probably strayed outside the Blue Line, and was detained, questioned and handed back by UNIFIL. Zahra was not specifically targeted, and his detention hardly threatened international security.
But this sense of outrage would not matter a jot if the Lebanese government were even-handed in its dealings with all its neighbors and a stink were kicked up every time a Lebanese national suffered harm or indignity at the hands of a foreign government while on Lebanese soil. The Lebanese government could claim that it places a premium on the wellbeing of all its citizens and that if its level indignation were considered excessive, then so be it. But sadly this is not the case. There is clearly one rule for Israel and one rule for Syria, our other neighbor, which, it appears, can shell Lebanese villages and kill Lebanese citizens with impunity. The most recent, and arguably the most serious, attack happened in the northern village of Wadi Khaled on Saturday. There have also been abductions. And we are not talking about 24-hour detentions either. People have disappeared and have not been heard of since. The government has been alarmingly silent on the matter. President Michel Sleiman said that he regretted the deaths but stopped short of condemning the Damascus for its actions. Then again, it is hard to see what the government can do, given its warped loyalties. Hezbollah, a party that has nailed its flag firmly to Syria’s mast, clearly cannot turn on its powerful patron, but the longer the government does nothing, the more its credibility is eroded and its true loyalties exposed. In the meantime, its condemnation of Israel over the detention of a shepherd only highlights the tragic hypocrisy of the situation in North Lebanon.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati is certainly in a bind. His people die at the hands of foreign power and he does nothing, while at home, public services are non-existent and the economy is on its knees. Still it’s not all doom and gloom. Energy minister Gebran Bassil found time to congratulate the people of Batroun for making it into the Guinness Book of Records for preparing the world’s biggest glass of lemonade, pointing out that it is feats such as this for which Lebanon should be known and not “tire burning” or “corruption.” “We need to offer the world the best we have,” the National News Agency quoted Bassil as saying. Batroun may be well-known for its lemonade, but surely Bassil is setting his ministerial sights a bit low if he believes this is the best Lebanon can do. What is even more galling, not to mention insulting, is that the tire burning he denounced is being carried out by his political allies, while the shadow of corruption has passed more than once, not only over his government and his bloc, but over Bassil himself. This government is clearly lost. Someone please give it a map and tell it to go to hell before more people die.

EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso , Netanyahu talk Iran, peace process
July 9, 2012 /EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso on Monday held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran's nuclear program on the second day of his trip to Israel and the West Bank. The two leaders "discussed the importance of expanding cooperation between Israel and Europe in all areas, Iran's effort to arm itself with nuclear weapons and the resumption of the peace talks with the Palestinians," Netanyahu's office said in a statement.European Union officials said in a statement that the two leaders "also discussed the regional situation with President Barroso stating the EU's support for democratic change and political and economic reforms in the wider neighborhood." "They also discussed vital threats in the region and exchanged views on the on-going diplomatic process aimed at solving the nuclear issue on Iran," the EU statement added. Israel, the sole if undeclared nuclear power in the Middle East, has said that Iran's nuclear program poses an existential threat to the Jewish state, and that it will not rule out military action to halt Tehran's nuclear activity. Barroso is in Israel and the Palestinian territories for a three-day visit that began yesterday with meetings in the West Bank with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. He is scheduled to meet Israeli President Shimon Peres later on Monday and will visit the northern Israeli city of Haifa on Tuesday to receive an honorary degree. In his discussions on Sunday, Barroso urged Israel and the Palestinians to return to negotiations, warning that the peace process "cannot become an orphan of the Arab Spring." Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians have been on hold since late September 2010, when they ground to a halt over the issue of settlement construction. The Palestinians want Israel to halt settlement activity and agree to base border discussions on the lines that existed before the 1967 Six-Day War.Israel says it wants talks to resume without preconditions.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Two Shia die in clashes with Saudi police, activists say
July 9, 2012/Two Shia were killed in overnight clashes with police in the eastern Saudi province of Qatif following the arrest of a prominent Shia cleric and government critic, activists said on Monday.
Akhbar Shakuri and Mohammed Filfel died and a dozen other protesters were wounded during the clashes that erupted when police opened fire to disperse a demonstration against the arrest of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, said the activists.The violence occurred in Riyadh Street, the main artery of Qatif city, they said. The reports could not be independently verified. The interior ministry described Nimr as an "instigator of sedition" as it announced that he was arrested at Al-Awamiya in Eastern Province on Sunday, after being wounded in the leg while putting up resistance. He was transferred to hospital and was due to be interrogated, ministry spokesperson Mansur Turki said, cited by the official SPA news agency. The new deaths bring to nine the number of people killed in clashes between Saudi authorities and protesters in the Shia-populated region. Nimr is considered one of the main advocates of demonstrations that first took place in February 2011 after an outbreak of violence between Shia pilgrims and religious police in the holy city of Medina. The protests escalated after the kingdom led a force of Gulf troops into neighboring Bahrain to help crush a month-long Shia-led uprising against the country's Sunni monarchy.
Most of Saudi Arabia's estimated two million Shiites live in the east, where the vast majority of the OPEC kingpin's huge oil reserves lie. Saudi Shiites complain of marginalization in the kingdom.
-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Egypt's reinstated parliament to convene Tuesday
July 9, 2012 /Egypt's parliament speaker has invited the lower house to convene on Tuesday following a decision by the president to reinstate the assembly, in a challenge to the military that disbanded the legislature. Saad al-Katatni "has called on parliament to convene at 2 p.m. (1200 GMT) on Tuesday," the official MENA news agency reported.
The call by Katatni, who belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood, comes after President Mohamed Morsi ordered the return of the Islamist-led parliament which was dissolved by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) based on a court ruling. The move has put Morsi, who stepped down from the Brotherhood when he was sworn in last month, on a collision course with the SCAF that ruled the country after Hosni Mubarak was ousted by a popular uprising last year. Morsi's decree also stipulates the organization of new parliamentary elections two months after the approval by referendum of the country's new constitution and the adoption of a new law regulating parliament. The presidential decision was likely to heighten tensions with the military, although both Morsi and Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi who heads SCAF appeared together at a military cadet graduation ceremony on Monday. The SCAF had convened an urgent meeting "to discuss the presidential measures" state television said.
The High Judicial Council and the Constitutional Court were also meeting on Monday to discuss the constitutionality of Morsi's decision. "Morsi says to SCAF: Check mate," read the headline of the independent daily Al-Watan, as Al-Tahrir, another daily, declared "Morsi defeats SCAF." The move, described by some papers as a "political earthquake," has also put Morsi on a collision course with the country's judiciary and some secular parties. "In any decent and democratic country, a president cannot disrespect the judiciary," said Rifaat al-Said, the head of the leftist Al-Tagammu party.
"Whether Morsi likes it or not, he must respect the judiciary's decisions," he told state television. Said also said that a march to parliament would be organized later on Monday, and stressed that "several parties will boycott parliament's sessions."The military dissolved parliament last month after Egypt's top court made its controversial ruling, a day before the second round of the presidential poll that saw the Islamist Morsi become Egypt's first democratically elected head of state. The powerful Muslim Brotherhood, from which Morsi stood down after his election, at the time described the move as a "soft coup," accusing the military of seeking to monopolize power and demanding a referendum. The Supreme Constitutional Court had said certain articles in the law governing parliamentary elections were invalid, annulling the Islamist-led house. It also ruled as unconstitutional the political isolation law, which sought to bar senior members of Mubarak's regime and top members of his now-dissolved party from running for public office for 10 years.-AFP/NOW Lebanon

Two kinds of steering away
Hazem Saghiyeh, July 9, 2012
Between Akkar in the North and Saida and its surroundings in the South, the signs of decay in Lebanon currently are proliferating. Take the attempt to assassinate MP Boutros Harb, which comes after Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea’s attempted assassination, and add them to the social crisis, which is threatening to grow totally out of control, to the internal divisions riddling the cabinet and to the burning of tires on the streets … All of this indicates that decay is the sole alternative to civil war. This is bad and worrying enough as such.
Furthermore, the crisis in the relationship between the Free Patriotic Movement and its allies Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, and the ensuing mounting talk of a rapprochement between the various Christian sides, allude to the possibility of seeing political life return to its overt sectarian components. It is as though the camouflage that emerged in 2005 and brought together various sectarian sides into political blocs has almost outlived its purpose.
Moreover, the situation between religious communities is deteriorating by the day, especially between Sunnis and Shia, on the streets and in institutions, be it in terms of behavior or rhetoric. At the same time, military confrontation flares every now and then between Bab al-Tabbaneh and Baal Mohsen, thus confirming that this constant leakage cannot be definitively controlled.
Some are still relying on the Lebanese Armed Forces’ unifying role, but it is clear – especially after the Akkar developments – that this role is being increasingly and unmistakably eroded.
It would be no exaggeration to say that the principle of “steering away” is the theory overshadowing this decay. The reference is not made here to steering away from regional problems, especially the Syrian crisis, but rather to the negative approach of “steering away” in the version created by PM Najib Mikati, which allows social fragmentation to invade the state rather than the opposite.
Negative “steering away” occurs when the cabinet does not intervene in order to change and exert an influence on reality, as it merely faces problems by going through them each problem at a time. In contrast, positive “steering away” is when both power and the cabinet intervene in order to address the same reality along two axes. The first axis is by developing this principle of steering away into a theory of total neutrality embraced by Lebanon vis-à-vis neighborhood problems in keeping with serious efforts to convince society of adopting this neutrality. The second axis is to emphasize the evident principle, whereby the state and its army are the only ones allowed to have tools of violence, and to admit that the fact illegitimate forces have such tools is the deep source underlying the Lebanese decay.
Nevertheless, moving from the negative version of steering away to the positive one requires a certain type of leaders, and it would be no exaggeration to question that such leaders exist in this disaster-ridden country.
This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Monday July 9, 2012

The Muslim Brotherhood's Long Game: Egypt's Ruling Party Plots Its Path to Power
Eric Trager /Foreign Affairs/Washington Institute
In the 18 months since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has risen swiftly from the cave to the castle. It founded the now-dominant Freedom and Justice Party last April, won a massive plurality in the winter parliamentary elections, and, last week, celebrated as its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won Egypt's presidential elections. After 84 years of using its nationwide social services networks to build an Islamic state in Egypt from the ground up, the Brotherhood is, for the first time, poised to shape Egyptian society from the top down.
There is, however, a catch: most of the Brotherhood's gains exist in name only. In early June, a court order invalidated the parliamentary elections and dissolved the Brotherhood-dominated parliament. Then, just prior to the second round of the presidential elections, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) issued a constitutional declaration that seized executive authority from the presidency, ultimately rendering Morsi a mostly powerless figure.
But after weeks of mounting tension with the SCAF, including mass demonstrations against the junta's power grab, the Brotherhood is dialing things down. It fears that agitating for more authority now could foment unrest and alienate a deeply divided public. It is also wary of what happened in Algeria in 1991, when the country's military-backed government responded to the electoral victory of an Islamist party with a harsh crackdown that culminated in civil war. To avoid further violence and cement its place in Egyptian politics, the Brotherhood now hopes to create a period of calm in the short run so that it can act more assertively in the future.
To begin with, the Brotherhood is attempting to forge a unified front with Egypt's other political parties. It began these efforts a week before the announcement of Morsi's victory to dissuade the SCAF from rigging the elections for Mubarak-era candidate Ahmed Shafik. During two days of intense negotiations, Morsi met with a wide spectrum of political groups and activists, promising to name a woman and a Christian as vice presidents and to appoint a cabinet that would not be dominated by the Brotherhood. Brotherhood leaders have used this agreement to prove that they intend to build a representative government. "We are standing with all political powers for the same demands," Brotherhood parliamentarian Khaled Deeb told me.
Yet this is not the first time that the Brotherhood has attempted to insulate itself by aligning with other factions, and history suggests that these agreements are typically short-lived. In June 2011, the Brotherhood joined the nationalist Wafd party in creating the Democratic Alliance for Egypt, an electoral coalition that at one point included approximately forty political parties ranging from socialist to Salafist. But by September, the Democratic Alliance broke down over the Brotherhood's insistence on reserving 40 percent of the coalition's candidacies for its own members, thereby leaving too few seats to satisfy its other partners, most of whom bolted. It hardly mattered: three months of unity enabled the Brotherhood to build its profile as a leading political entity, and it ultimately won a 47-percent plurality in the winter parliamentary elections.
The Brotherhood's current unity project appears destined for the same fate. Despite initial reports that Brotherhood figures would fill only 30 percent of the new cabinet, Brotherhood parliamentary leader Farid Ismail recently said in Al-Ahram that the organization may take up to half. The Brotherhood also seems intent on controlling the cabinet selection process to ensure that many non-Brotherhood ministers are non-ideological experts who are balanced out by Brotherhood-affiliated deputy ministers. "We have more than one [Brotherhood] candidate for each cabinet position, and some of those might be deputies," Brotherhood parliamentary leader Saad al-Husseini told me. "And we might nominate someone from a technocratic [background] or ask the other parties for nominations."
The Brotherhood's promise to nominate a Christian and female vice president is also more about symbolism than genuine power sharing. Brotherhood sources have suggested that Morsi may appoint up to five vice presidents, thereby watering down the influence of the Christian and female deputies. Moreover, to prevent Morsi from being succeeded by either a woman or a Copt in the event of his death, the Brotherhood will seek to maintain the current constitutional clause mandating that the speaker of the parliament -- currently Brotherhood leader Saad al-Katatny -- assume the presidency. "A state with a Muslim majority can't be ruled by a non-Muslim," Brotherhood Guidance Office leader Mahmoud Hussein told me, citing a sharia principle.
The second prong of the Brotherhood's strategy for temporary calm involves its coordination with the military. "This relationship was established from the first day," Deeb, the Brotherhood parliamentarian, told me. "No clash, no total agreement." In the week leading up to the announcement of Morsi's victory, Brotherhood leaders Katatny and Khairat al-Shater, among others, met frequently with SCAF generals, apparently hashing out a deal to ensure Morsi's election while tabling other areas of disagreement. The existence of these meetings, which now include Morsi, have led to a shift in the Brotherhood's rhetoric. After months of accusing the SCAF of seeking to engineer the presidential elections and stage a coup, Brotherhood leaders are now praising the SCAF's stewardship. At an inaugural event on Saturday, Morsi declared, "The SCAF has fulfilled its promises and the oath it made, to not be an alternative to popular will."
The Brotherhood has also signaled that it will now accept several key SCAF demands that it had previously opposed. In this vein, immediately after his electoral victory was announced, Morsi stated that he would only be sworn in before the parliament, thereby pressuring the SCAF to reverse the parliament's dissolution. Yet he ultimately agreed to be sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court, which implicitly recognized the validity of the SCAF's constitutional declaration.
Brotherhood leaders have also intimated that they can live with the power that the SCAF appropriated to itself via the constitutional declaration, at least for now. "The constitutional declaration doesn't give the SCAF full power -- just the right for legislation," al-Husseini, the Brotherhood parliamentary leader, told me. "The president has veto power." The Brotherhood even seems willing to accept SCAF's autonomy over military budgets, a key SCAF demand, so long as a small civilian committee is briefed on the details. "I can't bring the military budget in front of the parliament and discuss it publicly," Brotherhood parliamentarian Azza al-Garf told me. "It should be discussed among a few people in parliament secretly." As a result, the military's vast business holdings, which are said to encompass between 15 and 40 percent of the Egyptian economy, appear safe for the time being.
The Brotherhood's arrangement with the SCAF is not surprising. It is consistent with the organization's long-held strategy of avoiding confrontation with more powerful authorities by negotiating the extent of its political activities. In fact, Morsi was the Brotherhood's point man in these negotiations during the last five years of Mubarak's rule, using the dealings to coordinate the Brotherhood's participation in parliamentary elections and limited interaction with various protest movements. As a cohesive, 84 year-old society, the Brotherhood typically places organizational goals, such as achieving power incrementally, over broader societal goals, such as ending autocratic rule more immediately. "Our program is a long-term one, not a short-term one," Morsi told me in August 2010. "If we are rushing things, then I don't think that this leads to a real stable position."
This hardly means, however, that the Brotherhood intends to accommodate the military indefinitely. Last November, for example, the SCAF and the Brotherhood struck a deal in which the Brotherhood agreed to avoid violent Tahrir Square protests in exchange for the SCAF's agreement to hold parliamentary elections on time. But the pact broke down in March, when the SCAF first threatened to dissolve the parliament and the Brotherhood suddenly dropped its promise that it would not run a presidential candidate. Moreover, the Brotherhood appears unlikely to accept long-term limits on the authority that it has won in the elections. "The army is owned by the people," said Brotherhood parliamentarian Osama Suleiman told me. "[Civilian oversight of the military] is the popular will -- and nobody can stop popular will."
In short, the long-anticipated confrontation between the SCAF and Brotherhood has been delayed -- and, for that, many Egyptians are thankful. After all, Cairo seemed on the brink of disaster a few weeks ago, when tens of thousands of mostly Islamist protesters packed Tahrir Square, some declaring themselves ready to die if Shafik was named president. But the current calm, and the Brotherhood's attempt to appear inclusive while also accommodating the SCAF, will not last. The Brotherhood will use this period to build its legitimacy as Egypt's next ruling party, and resume its push for more authority once the temperature cools down.
Eric Trager is the Next Generation fellow at The Washington Institute.