Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for July 21/12
Barak: Israel may seize advanced weapons in Syria
A Hizballah suicide terror revival launched by the Burgas bus bombing
Police struggle to identify Bulgaria suicide bomber
Bulgaria denies reports of homegrown terror activity
U.S. suspects Hezbollah in Bulgaria attack that killed five
Syria moves chemical weapons before wider offensive: defector
Report: Islamic Jihad leadership leaves Syria
The battle for Damascus rages
Syrian forces fight back after rebel surge into capital
U.N. Security Council approves 30-day extension for Syria monitors
Still options for under-pressure Assad: experts
Syrian troops recapture Damascus neighborhood
Reports: Cyprus Police Seek to Hold Lebanese Suspect Longer
Daily Star: Lebanon's Arabic press digest - July 21, 2012
MP Butros Harb: Cabinet still obstructing probe by withholding telecoms data
Harb Assassination Attempt Suspect Refuses to Appear at Investigation because he is a Hizbullah Official
Hariri Urges Authorities to Take Decisive Stand on Telecom Data Dispute
Determined Sleiman works to bring March 14 to Dialogue table
Sleiman urges National Dialogue parties to place Lebanon’s interests first
Lebanese border regains sense of normalcy
Assir, supporters march, denounce Nasrallah, Berri
Aoun slams Dar al-Fatwa, insists sheikh had alcohol in car
Jumblatt urges Syrian Druze, Alawites to join revolt
Harb urges Hezbollah to quit shielding would-be assassin
Electricity rationing deals heavy blow to economy, businesses
Third of Lebanese want laws based on Quran values
Reports: Cyprus Police Seek to Hold Lebanese Suspect Longer
Dar al-Fatwa to host summit of leading Muslim figures
Grand Mufti Qabbani calls for opening all Syrian borders
Lebanon’s Muslim leaders express concern about political tensions
Hollande to Al-Rahi: France Will Always Support Lebanon against All Regional Challenges
One Killed as Personal Dispute Escalates into Armed Clash in Bab al-Tabbaneh

Assad's days are numbered
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynet news
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4258099,00.html
07.20.12/Op-ed: Assassination of top Syrian defense officials could be decisive blow for Assad The attack on Syria’s emergency cabinet session gravely undermined the regime’s ability to function and suppress the uprising. The toughest blow to Bashar Assad is the killing of Assef Shawkat, who was not only the president’s brother-in-law but also the person who in practice commanded all the regime’s security arms. The blow may be so grave that Assad won’t be able to recover. Intelligence officials speak of the possibility that this was the decisive move that will prompt Assad to quit, flee or be killed, thereby leading to chaos in Syria. Another grave development for Assad is that members of his own Alawite sect show signs that they no longer support the regime and do not trust its ability to safeguard them. This minority group comprises some 10% of Syria’s population and its members man most of the top positions in the army and security forces.
According to credible Western sources, senior Alawite figures are starting to discuss the option of abandoning Assad and are also asking Hezbollah to dispatch men who would protect them the day after the regime collapses. Hezbollah and Iran, which are interested in gaining a significant foothold in Syria the day after, are exploiting the issue of protecting the Alawite minority as a pretext for involvement in the fighting and for supplying arms and advice to the regime. Western intelligence officials are convinced that Shawkat’s assassination will accelerate the Syrian regime’s demise. The expected chaos would mean that many areas in Syria will not be ruled by the central government, with Syria turning into a failed state where local leaderships or tribes manage affairs while engaging in bloody battles among themselves.
The threat posed to Israel under such state of affairs is that many terrorists affiliated with the Global Jihad (al-Qaeda and its ilk) who arrived in Syria from Iran and Lebanon will exploit the chaos in order to establish themselves near the Golan Heights border and carry out attacks from there. In fact, quite a few Global Jihad groups are already in southern Syria, near the border with Israel.
The WMD threat
An even graver threat is that the chemical and biological weapons and some of the Syrian army’s immense missile and rocket arsenal will fall into the hands of radical Islamic elements. The scenario that Israel fears most of all is that Hezbollah will use the chaos to smuggle these arms into Lebanon. We know that for weeks now, American and Jordanian forces have been simulating a takeover of chemical and biological stockpiles. Assad’s extensive arsenal also includes advanced missile and artillery systems received from Russia, as well as advanced surface-to-sea missiles and long range Scud D missiles that can hit any spot in Israel. In order to prevent these arms from ending up in Hezbollah’s possession, Israel closely monitors the movements of weapons systems and arms within Syria. Defense Minister Ehud Barak also made it clear that Israel will not accept the transfer of these systems to Hezbollah.
Another possibility feared by Israeli officials is that a despaired Assad will choose a suicidal gesture and embark on war against Israel in order to be recorded as a national hero in the annals of history, possibly in a desperate bid to divert public opinion away from the uprising against his regime. Yet officials here are not overly concerned by this scenario, as it is doubtful whether the collapsing army will even follow Assad’s orders. Moreover, the current state of the Syrian army at this time and its readiness for war with Israel is not at its best, to say the least.
While reports keep coming in from Damascus, we can carefully estimate that within weeks, and possibly days, we’ll see the final collapse of the Damascus regime, which lost its legitimacy to rule a while ago.

Hezbollah’s Bulgarian wing?
Ana Maria Luca, July 20, 2012 /Now Lebanon
A 36-year-old Caucasian man (C) is suspected of being the suicide bomber who destroyed a bus filled with Israeli tourists in Bulgaria on Wednesday. (Bulgarian Interior Ministry)
Burgas is the biggest sea resort in Bulgaria, with affordable hotels spread along the longest and widest beach strip on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. It has been attracting millions of tourists from across the world for years. Bulgaria is known as a safe country for tourists, with only the pickpockets and taxi drivers overcharging foreigners to watch out for. Terror warnings were never heard in the quiet seaside resort.
But on Wednesday, July 18, a young man with a backpack full of TNT blew himself up on a bus carrying Israeli vacationers from the airport to their hotel, killing five tourists, the bus driver and himself, while wounding 32 other people. The Bulgarian authorities were caught off guard. After all, who would target Bulgaria?
The man who blew himself up was a 36-year-old Caucasian with long hair, wearing a T-shirt, shorts and a baseball cap, the pictures released by the Bulgarian Interior Ministry show. Israeli politicians and intelligence agencies immediately said he was a Hezbollah operative. Several ministers stated that the attack was planned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and executed by Hezbollah operatives in Bulgaria, although the Bulgarian authorities and analysts insist there is no clear evidence on who the perpetrator was.
US intelligence sources said that the bomber was "acting under broad guidance" to hit Israeli targets when opportunities presented themselves, and that the order had been given to Hezbollah by Iran. Two other American officials confirmed that Hezbollah was behind the bombing, but declined to provide additional details. The attacks, the official said, were in retaliation for the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, for which Iran has blamed Israeli agents. It was not clear what evidence led the investigators to conclude that the suicide bomber was a Hezbollah operative.
Bulgarian experts say there are two other possibilities: The attack could have been masterminded by Al Qaeda or by Turkish terrorists in retaliation for an operation carried out by Israel on the Gaza Flotilla at the end of May 2010.
According to information in the Bulgarian press, the perpetrator did not act alone, but with the help of a cell made up of Lebanese citizens and radical Bulgarian Islamists.
Bulgarian authorities are weary of releasing too many details to the press before the investigation is concluded. Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov said that the identity of the bomber was not yet established, despite DNA tests and fingerprints collected. "We are talking about a person that is not a Bulgarian citizen," he said Friday in a statement. The minister added that the man may have had an accomplice, but refused to give any more details.
Vladimir Bereanu, an analyst working for Bulgarian public television, told NOW Lebanon that the existence of a terrorist cell in Bulgaria is almost impossible. “Bulgarians are not religious fanatics by definition,” he said. “There is a Muslim population at the border with Turkey, but they, as well as the Christians, are not very religious. It is highly unlikely to have Islamists in Bulgaria,” he added. He also explained that the Lebanese community in Bulgaria is composed of “a few restaurants and a couple of companies.”
“Hezbollah doesn’t really have a presence in this country.” Bereanu added. “There is no ideological connection. If any, they have a stronger presence in Romania [neighboring Bulgaria].”
Bereanu said that the perpetrator most probably came from Turkey, the closest border, and procured the TNT in Bulgaria from a criminal gang. “If there is any connection the perpetrator had in Bulgaria, it is of a criminal nature. Criminal gangs are in the middle of a war, and they often use explosives to blow each other up. It’s very common,” he said.
Lebanese analyst Kassem Kassir, who specializes in Islamic movements, agreed that the perpetrator was probably not connected to Hezbollah, telling NOW that the incident does not fit the Party of God’s modus operandi. “Usually they attack the Israeli military, not civilians. This is the idea of Resistance against the Israeli occupation,” he said, noting that Israeli politicians usually blame Hezbollah for any security incident. Hezbollah hasn’t made any statement regarding the attack in Burgas or the accusations made by Israeli officials. The Iranian government dismissed the accusations as laughable and condemned the attack.

A Hizballah suicide terror revival launched by the Burgas bus bombing
DEBKAfile Special Report July 20, 2012/The suicide bombing attack in Bulgaria that left five Israelis dead and more than 30 injured Wednesday, July 18, is seen by Israeli and Western intelligence and counter-terror sources as marking Hizballah’s regression to its old tactics. After a 17-year break in major international attacks, the Lebanese terrorist group is again sending suicide killers to murder Israelis and Jews. In the 1980s, Hizballah was notorious for its massive bomb attacks against US Marines in Lebanon and the US embassy in Beirut, which left more than 300 dead. In the early 1990s, the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina was blown up killing 29 people, followed by the destruction of the Jewish center in the city leaving 85 people.
It is now evident that the old Hizballah is back and fully equipped with suicide killers standing by for action worldwide at the bases of its far-flung terrorist, espionage, dope-smuggling and money laundry networks. Western counter-terror experts give Israel’s Mossad, Shin Bet and Military Intelligence a failed mark for missing those preparations and not appreciating the significance of the bungled Iranian-backed Hizballah bomb and assassination plots over the past year or two in India, Turkey, Azerhianjan, Thailand, Georgia, Kenya and Cyprus. They were experienced ought to have realized that Hizballah planners were testing the ground and their own methods and analyzing their performance, before concluding that suicide attacks would get them the optimal results, namely, maximum fatalities.
The experts estimate that it will take Israel’s intelligence and counter-terror agencies time to get organized for catching up with Hizballah’s plots and developing preventive measures. As one said, “It may take weeks or even months before Israel is able to come to grips with the new Hizballah terror deployment. Iran’s external terrorist arms and Hizballah planners will try and take advantage of Israel’s vulnerability in that period for repeated attacks. In any case, they warn, the Bulgarian bombing was a first shot. Hizballah must be put down firmly by a strong Israeli deterrent. Its terror offensive must be nipped in the bud before it spills over into Israel. Iran’s al Qods and its Lebanese surrogate have planted a network of sleepers on the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and among certain Arab Israeli communities, who may be called into action at any time. Israel’s response to the attack in Bulgaria so far has been feeble and hesitant, a frustrated counter-terror official told debkafile. A complaint to the UN Security Council on Thursday, July 19, the day that international body demonstrated its irrelevance for halting the Syrian bloodbath was worse than useless; it was a sign of weakness.
This type of reaction will serve only to encourage Tehran and Hizballah to keep going. Indeed, The Security Council did more harm than good by condemning the bombing attack and the Israeli deaths, without naming the perpetrators. Iran and Hizballah got off scot-free.

Syria moves chemical weapons before wider offensive: defector
July 21, 2012/HACIPASA, Turkey: A senior Syrian military defector said President Bashar Assad's forces were moving chemical weapons across the country for possible use in a military retaliation for the killing of four top security officials. "The regime has started moving its chemical stockpile and redistributing it to prepare for its use," said General Mustafa Sheikh, citing rebel intelligence obtained in recent days. "They are moving it from warehouses to new locations," he told Reuters in an interview in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border. "They want to burn the country. The regime cannot fall without perpetrating a sea of blood." Syria's 16-month conflict has been transformed since Wednesday, when a bomb killed four members of Assad's narrow circle of kin and lieutenants, including his powerful brother-in-law, defence minister and intelligence chief. Sheikh's comments could not be independently verified and Syria has denied any such move.
Western and Israeli officials, concerned that chemical stockpiles could fall into the hands of militants, said a week ago that Syria appeared to be shifting weapons from storage sites, but it was not clear whether the operation was a security precaution or a preparation for deployment.
On Friday Israel said it would consider military action if needed to ensure Syrian missiles or chemical weapons did not reach Assad's allies in Lebanon, the Shi'ite group Hezbollah.
Sheikh, who fled his post in the northern command of Assad's army in January, said the coming days would see increased shelling of Sunni strongholds in Damascus and Aleppo.
But unleashing a broader and bloodier army assault would fuel an intense backlash by the mostly Sunni rebels, he said.
"The coming phase will witness a phase of bloodshed that is unprecedented and the regime will resort to non-conventional weapons. Every action will trigger a bigger reaction," he said.
"Assad wants to burn the country. This dictatorial and sectarian regime will not fall without a sea of blood," said Sheikh, whose military council provides a political umbrella to the armed resistance to Assad's rule. Since Wednesday's attack, rebels have pushed into the heart of the capital and seized control of other towns. On Thursday, they captured three border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, the first time they have held sway over Syria's frontiers.
Sheikh said the success of Wednesday's bombing, which Free Syrian Army rebels claimed to have carried out, was the fruit of experience gained from months of conflict, rather than any fresh weapons supply. "The weapons that are coming from outside are a drop in the ocean and are too trivial to make a difference," he said.
The success of Wednesday's attack surprised him, even though he was tipped by rebels over a month ago they were undertaking a top secret operation targeting Assad's inner circle.
"When I heard of it, I stood in awe that we had reached such a stage inside," he said. "I was aware of it, but of course did not plan it, the rebels told me that there would be a qualitative operation that would go after the head of the regime in these days ... closer to the holy month of Ramadan," said Sheikh. The perpetrator of the attack was "someone who worked with a top official ... the Free Syrian Army is present in every corner of the state", he said, declining to give any further details. Sheikh said momentum gained by the rebels was prompting faster high-level defections and at least 100,000 soldiers have deserted out of the 320,000-strong military, almost double the numbers of only a few months ago. On Saturday a Turkish official told Reuters two Syrian brigadier-generals had fled to Turkey overnight.
Opposition sources have said thousands more Sunni soldiers have been confined to their barracks, but cannot desert because of the grip of military intelligence and lack of safe areas.
The involvement of the best trained elite forces from the Fourth Brigade to the Republican Army in the widening offensive showed the extent of attrition within the army, he said.
"Every day there is attrition ... the collapse of the regime is now accelerating like a snowball," Sheikh said

Barak: Israel may seize advanced weapons in Syria
Reuters, Roi Kais/07.20.12/Ynetnews
Defense minister tells Channel 10 IDF ordered to step up intelligence preparations in case it needs to prevent chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah
Tensions mounting: Israel is preparing for a possible military intervention in Syria in case the Syrian government hands missiles or chemical weapons to Hezbollah, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Friday.
"I have instructed the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that... (if necessary)... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation," Barak said in an interview on Channel 10 News. "We are following... the possible transfer of advanced munitions systems, mainly anti-aircraft missiles or heavy ground-to-ground missiles, but there could also be a possibility of the transfer of chemical means (weapons) from Syria to Lebanon," he added. "The moment (Syrian President Bashar Assad) starts to fall we will conduct intelligence monitoring and will liaise with other agencies," Barak said. Hezbollah, which has in the past received military and financial support from Syria and Iran, launched thousands of mainly short-range rockets into Israel during the Second Lebanon War, but some longer-range rockets reached central Israel. Their border has largely remained quiet since then. Israel and the United States are closely monitoring any movement concerning Syria's chemical weapons' stockpiles, as concerns are growing that terror groups are taking advantage of the chaos in the country to seize them. US intelligence services estimate that Syria's nonconventional weapons arsenal – considered the biggest in the world – includes stockpiles of mustard gas, VX and Sarin gas, as well as the missile and artillery systems to deliver them. On Thursday, Barak toured the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau from which Israel can monitor movements inside the territory of its northern foe. Barak said Israeli troops were also preparing to handle a possible influx of refugees: "They (refugees) have not chosen to come close to us, but in the event of the regime's downfall, which could happen... (Israeli forces) here are alert and ready, and if we have to stop waves of refugees, we will stop them," he said. Battles have been raging in Damascus and Aleppo since noon Friday. Regime troops were able to regain control of the district of Midan in the southern part of Damascus on Friday. But rebels launched new fighting in several other districts of the capital, activists said
At least 100 people were killed in clashes across Syria on Friday, activists said.

Bulgaria denies reports of homegrown terror activity
News agencies/Ynetnews/07.20.12/Sofia's National Security Agency says there is no indication Burgas terrorist was assisted by local cell. Probe finds terrorist used 3kg of TNT
Bulgaria's State Agency for National Security (DANS) denied Friday media reports suggesting that an active terror cell on Bulgarian soil assisted the Burgas terrorist in his attack on Israeli tourists. Seven people were killed, five of them Israelis, and 32 others were injured on Wednesday, when a suicide bomber targeted a bus full of Israelis in a terminal of the Black Sea city's airport. The identity of the suicide bomber is still unknown. He was found to be carrying a fake American passport, and the United States, Israel and Bulgaria are cooperating closely on the investigation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Hezbollah, acting as Iran's proxy, carried out the attack. The Pentagon backed the theory, saying that "The attack on a bus carrying Israelis at a Bulgarian airport does bear the hallmarks of Hezbollah." The Sofia News Agency reported that DANS had no intelligence indicating that the terrorists was "assisted by an organized terrorist group active in Bulgaria. "The terrorist most probably relied on the support of assistants and the logistics of the bomb plot was handled by one or two people who entered and left the country repeatedly," a DANS statement was quoted.
Bulgarian Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov told the local BNT television channel Friday that so far, Sofia's investigation into the terror attack has derived that the suicide bomber used three kilograms of trinitrotoluene explosives, commonly known as TNT. Bulgaria President Rossen Plevneliev held a press conference Friday, in which he said the Burgas bus bombing was "a European problem."
"Bulgaria must have a more adequate response to present-day security risks," he said. "What I can guarantee is that this horrible terrorist act will make the democratic world even stronger. The only way to be adequate to threats in the 21st century is to stay united," he added. EU leaders "are resolved to use all the power, competence and solidarity of the European institutions" to fight terror," Plevneliev said.
AP contributed to this report

Daily Star: Lebanon's Arabic press digest - July 21, 2012
The Daily Star
Lebanon's Arabic press digest.
Following are summaries of some of the main stories in a selection of Lebanese newspapers Saturday. The Daily Star cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports.
An-Nahar
Case of assassination could lead to suspension of [National] Dialogue
Hezbollah official wanted in investigation
Despite the noticeable reduction in political activity with the beginning of Ramadan and large numbers of Syrian refugees crossing into Lebanon, the primary issue was that of March 14’s decision to boycott the National Dialogue.
President Michel Sleiman did not read in the statement issued from the March 14 a definitive boycott of Tuesday’s planned National Dialogue session, according to sources close to the president.
The sources said Sleiman was continuing his contacts and efforts to help resolve the stance of [March 14] so that they could participate in the session.
The sources said that Sleiman has yet to be informed personally from the March 14 coalition that they would not participate. The president, according to the sources, is studying two possibilities – either to postpone the session next week or keep the current date unchanged allowing the session to be for general discussions without this being considered a meeting of the National Dialogue Committee.
As-Safir
Sleiman for dialogue among those who attend [National Dialogue]
Mikati warns his “governments”
Lebanese mobilized to absorb [effects] of Syrians [crossing into country]
Despite President Michel Sleiman’s reservations concerning a statement by MP Mohammad Raad of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, even before being informed of the misgivings of the March 14 coalition, he was not surprised by the opposition’s decision to boycott the National Dialogue sessions.
And while the March 14 coalition was passing around sweets and exchanging congratulations in anticipation of the fall of the Syrian regime, none of its leaders mobilized despite the growing effects of the Syrian crisis at the political, security and social levels.
Al-Mustaqbal
Syrian refugee numbers near 30,0000 ... and search for external support
Hezbollah prevents one of its officials being questioned in the Harb assassination
The issue of the surge of Syrian refugees into Lebanon has forced itself into the Lebanon political agenda and added pressure on the government to fulfill its moral, humanitarian and legal obligations toward the refugees.
Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour said that despite Lebanon’s inability to secure the needs of the refugees it was not possible to return the families that fled oppression and death.

Lebanon’s Muslim leaders express concern about political tensions
July 21, 2012/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s leading Muslim religious figures expressed concern Saturday about political tensions prevailing in the country, but voiced confidence in the wisdom of political and religious leaders.
“We express our concerns over the political tension that the country is witnessing these days. We also express our fears of these tensions having negative and dangerous consequences on the overall situation [in the country],” a statement said following the meeting of religious leader at Dar al-Fatwa in Beirut.
The spiritual summit was attended by Grand Mufti Mohammad Rashid Qabbani, Higher Shiite Council Sheikh Vice President Abdel-Amir Qabalan, the country’s leading Druze spiritual authority Naim Hasan and the country’s leading Alawite spiritual leader Assad Assi.
The leaders also voiced confidence in the “wisdom of political and religious leaders in addition to citizens from all religions and sects.”
In the statement, the participants reiterated Muslim unity and “the need to work toward avoiding strife that might stem from contending political views to sectarianism.”
They also reiterated their commitment to “national unity, internal peace, Lebanon’s co-existence message and the army’s role in maintaining the country and its people’s unity.”
The participants also congratulated Lebanese in general and Muslims in particular on the start of the holy month of Ramadan

Harb Assassination Attempt Suspect Refuses to Appear at Investigation because he is a Hizbullah Official
Naharnet/21 July 2012/Mahmoud Hayek, the suspect in the assassination attempt against MP Butros Hard, refused to appear before the investigative bodies because he is a member of Hizbullah’s security apparatus, according to the lawmaker and some security sources Saturday. Harb said that a car plate number was found inside the bag carried by the suspect when he tried to booby trap the top of the building elevator of his office in the Sami Solh region. The plate turned out to belong to a Hizbullah member who was called in for questioning, but refused, the An Nahar daily said.
Harb considered the telecom data issue as the missing link in the investigation, noting that ministers of Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement refused to hand in the data needed for the completion of investigation. The cabinet had decided in its meeting earlier this month to provide the security apparatus with the telecom data and limit the international mobile subscriber identity IA.
According to LBC television Friday, the security apparatus summoned M.H., from the southern town of Adchit, for questioning on the backdrop of Harb’s assassination attempt in a bid to compare his fingerprints and DNA to the ones found at the crime scene. However, it was learned that M.H. is a prominent Hizbullah official, and that he was not at his home when security members arrived to notify him. His wife said that any request related to her husband must pass through the Hizbullah security committee, LBC added.
A senior security source told An Nahar that such behavior explains the insistence of Hizbullah and its allies not to hand in the full telecom data to the security sources.
The source added on condition of anonymity: “The investigations will not back down; there is a strict decision not to retreat or leave Lebanon a prey for tactics that aim to shake its stability.”
For its part the al-Joumhouria newspaper on Saturday quoted a security source who confirmed that the suspect is a Hizbullah official called Mahmoud Hayek.
Harb escaped an assassination attempt early July, when three people tried to plant a booby trap inside the elevator of the building where his office is located in Sami Solh.

MP Butros Harb: Cabinet still obstructing probe by withholding telecoms data
July 21, 2012/ The Daily Star /BEIRUT: MP Butros Harb said Saturday that the Cabinet is still obstructing access to data needed in the investigation of the attempt on his life. “The cabinet is still not cooperating as needed in terms of the telecoms data,” he told the Kataeb-owned Voice of Lebanon radio station. “If the cabinet wants to avoid strife, it should deal with these cases [alleged assassination attempts on other political figures in the country] in a serious manner,” he said. The Batroun lawmaker survived an assassination attempt earlier this month at his office in Badaro. Two detonators were found on top of the elevator inside the building housing Harb’s Beirut office on July 5. Police were unable to arrest anyone at the scene. On Friday, Harb urged Hezbollah to cease providing political cover for the suspect involved in the case. “We are asking Hezbollah to lift its cover from this person who is a high-ranking party member,” Harb told The Daily Star, claiming that the man refused to be interrogated merely because he belonged to the resistance party. In his interview Saturday, Harb said the Cabinet’s refusal to provide authorities with the required telecoms data was in essence a flouting of the law. He reiterated that should the government continue to withhold the data he would accuse it of facilitating and encouraging such crimes from taking place.


Democracy, Salafi Style
Aaron Y. Zelin/Foreign Policy/Washington Institute
July 20, 2012
One of Saudi Arabia's most popular hardline clerics just embraced democracy. Should we worry, or applaud?
The Muslim Brotherhood has so far emerged as the clear political winner from the popular uprisings that have seized the Arab world. In Egypt and Tunisia, its affiliated political parties have either won power outright in democratic elections. But the Brotherhood isn't the only movement mixing faith and politics in the new Middle East: Salafis -- hardline conservatives who model their lives on Prophet Mohamed and the first three generation of Muslim leaders following his death -- are setting aside years of theological opposition to democracy to participate in the political game.
This sea change was driven home earlier this week when Saudi Salafi heavyweight Sheikh Salman al-Awdah took to his Twitter feed and Facebook page to proclaim: "Democracy might not be an ideal system, but it is the least harmful, and it can be developed and adapted to respond to local needs and circumstances." Although Awdah notably made his announcement on his English and not Arabic social media platforms, where his audience numbers in the millions rather than the tens of thousands, the sentiment is still positively Churchillian -- echoing as it does the late British prime minister's maxim: "It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
Awdah's pronouncement is significant due to his history and popularity within the Salafist milieu. He was one of the key leaders of Saudi Arabia's sahwa ("awakening") movement, which butted heads with the House of Saud most prominently during the Gulf war in the early 1990s. During those years, key Saudi religious scholars and sahwa activists signed two petitions admonishing the Saudi royals for their reliance on the United States, and calling for the creation of a shura ("consultative") council that would grant greater authority to the religious establishment to determine whether legislation was truly in line with Islamic law.
The House of Saud viewed these letters as a direct threat to its power, and consequently arrested Awdah and other sahwa figures in 1994. Awdah would not be released until 1999. Although he has not been as overt in his criticisms of the regime since his release, he is not part of the official religious establishment and has a level of independence, which has afforded him the ability to maintain a large following without being viewed as a lackey of the government.
Osama bin Laden was one of the young Saudis deeply affected by Awdah's stand against the Saudi regime in the early 1990s. The al Qaeda chief viewed him as an intellectual mentor, and allegedly told his former bodyguard Abu Jandal that if Awdah had not been imprisoned, he would not have had to raise his voice up against the Saudi ruling family.
The al Qaeda leader's admiration highlights Awdah's influence among not only mainstream Salafists, but some of the more radical wings of the movement. Awdah himself was never an al Qaeda sympathizer. He would rebuke bin Laden in 2007 during Ramadan, saying, "My brother Osama, how much blood has been spilt? How many innocent people, children, elderly, and women have been killed ... in the name of al Qaeda? Will you be happy to meet God Almighty carrying the burden of these hundreds of thousands or millions of victims on your back?"
Prior to the Arab uprisings, the large majority of Salafis viewed democracy as contrary to Islam. The crux of the Salafist argument is that electing legislators to create laws infringes upon the sovereignty of God, who is the only valid sovereign in the world. Therefore, by establishing the supremacy of democracy, one is putting humans on the same level as God and thus one is worshipping another. As a consequence, one is no longer truly a Muslim because one's beliefs have slipped into polytheism. The burgeoning Salafist parties across the Middle East, however, show the monumental shift away from this doctrinaire position.
But Awdah's remarks are an acknowledgment of the changing political landscape in the Middle East. The list of legal Salafist parties in Arab countries making the transition to democracy continues to grow. Egypt has three Salafist parties, which together hold roughly 25 percent of seats in parliament, while Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen have one each. With these parties quickly becoming accepted players in the political game, this new era could see the proliferation of political movements established by formerly non-politicized Salafis.
Awdah's comments may resonate further in countries still living under the yoke of authoritarian rulers than those undergoing a political transition. If he is more outspoken in the coming months or years, especially in Arabic, it could reinvigorate past failed attempts to reform, or even unseat, the House of Saud. That possibility, however, still remains beyond the horizon -- in the short term, the kingdom appears stable.
Democracy has exposed Salafis to a difficult question: Do they maintain their doctrinal purity or attempt to truly influence their destiny -- a path that was closed to them under authoritarian regimes? It appears that some Salafis have had the foresight to see the necessity of joining the process.
Of course, taking part in the democratic process does not make one a liberal in the Enlightenment sense. Important questions remain about Salafi groups' shift to democracy. Is it pragmatic or a true ideological commitment to democratic principles? Will joining the process liberalize such parties to the extent that they could provide more competition in the election process, or will it create a populist push between Islamist parties to prove who is truly following God's will? It is still too early to assess the answers to these questions one way or the other, but the result of Salafis' participation in the political game will likely vary by country, depending on the local context.
Salafis' participation in the political game also raises important policy considerations the United States should take into account. True, the U.S. government, and the West in general, have few points of ideological agreement with these Salafi movements. For example, all of the Salafi parties would like to end interest-based banking, which they view as haram, and have a very narrow view of the rights of minorities, women, and homosexuals. But bringing them into the mainstream political process holds the possibility of drawing individuals away from the more extreme jihadist interpretations of Salafism. These movements may be troublesome political players, but democracy provides a more positive outlet for change than violence.
Awdah's remarks highlight an important ideological shift within the Salafi movement over the past year and a half. It suggests that the United States should continue to pursue a policy that helps and encourages the emerging Arab democracies to open up so that individuals within them can shape their own futures. Salafis are poised to become key political players in the new Middle East, and should be given the space to continue their ideological evolution.
**Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow fellow in The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.

Third of Lebanese want laws based on Quran values
July 21, 2012/By Justin Salhani/The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Just over one-third of Lebanese believe that laws should be based on the values and principles of Islam, while almost one in five believe that laws should comply strictly with the Quran, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center.
While these figures, along with the rise of Islamist groups in parts of Lebanon and the greater Middle East, may worry sections of the secular and Christian populations, political analysts believe Lebanon’s diverse religious makeup renders wholesale radicalization unlikely.“Lebanon has a unique character,” observes Dr. James Zogby, founder and president of the Washington, D.C.-based Arab American Institute as well as senior adviser for polling firm Zogby International, which was founded by his brother, renowned pollster John Zogby.
“Every religion-based, sect-based group [in Lebanon] is theologically more moderate [than those in other Arab countries]. They understand the need for a more open society.”
In Lebanon, Pew carried out face-to-face interviews in Arabic with 1,000 people. A multistage cluster sample was taken in Lebanon’s seven major regions (excluding Beirut’s southern suburbs and areas in the south near the border with Israel, to which access is generally restricted to locals).
The survey claims to be proportional to Lebanon’s population size and the percentage of urban to rural inhabitants. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percent.
The survey shows that 35 percent of Lebanese believe “Laws should follow the values and principles of Islam” while 17 percent believe “Laws should strictly follow the Quran.”
Elias Muhanna, an assistant professor at Brown University who is well-known for his blog Qifa Nabki, believes formulations such as “the values and principles of Islam” are “loose definitions” that do not translate into attempts to impose Islamic law.
“If you were to ask people in my large extended family if biblical values are important to political life, about 90 percent would say yes even though they are not all devout,” Muhanna says.
The survey, which includes five other predominately Muslim countries – Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan – indicates that 84 percent of Lebanese have a “Continuing Desire for Democracy” (an increase of 3 percent from 2010) and that 93 percent of Lebanese believe women should have rights equal to those of men.
Of special note is the fact that Lebanon assigns more importance than the survey’s other countries to a prosperous economy, free elections, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, political stability, and uncensored access to media and the internet.
Zogby, who has over three decades of experience in taking polls, recalls a 2005 poll taken during a meeting of the Arab Business Council. At the council, he asked business leaders from several Arab countries the question: “Should Shariah law be applied to business?”“In many countries the answer was yes,” he says. “In Lebanon ... every group [from each sect] said no.”“Lebanese values inherit an openness in the country,” he points out, adding that Lebanon is the only country he has polled in the Arab world in which people assign more importance to their national identity rather than their religious, sectarian or Arab identity.
“The society is more robust and most don’t want partisanship,” he maintains of the Lebanese. Where religious intolerance and extremism do exist in Lebanon, Zogby blames Lebanese political leaders who “manipulate fears and anxiety” to create perceptions of extreme fundamentalists in other sects, a practice that furthers their personal agendas and ambitions.
But Muhanna, the blogger, argues that a political shift has started taking place in Lebanon, pointing to the recent media attention received by controversial Sidon Sheikh Ahmad Assir and sectarian clashes between armed groups in the northern city of Tripoli.
“Assir emerged with the Nasrallah strategy,” Muhanna says, comparing the Sunni preacher to the leader of Shiite Hezbollah, with whom Assir is politically at odds. “He talks a lot of sense.”
A charismatic speaker, Assir has used his skills as an orator and his pragmatism to attract attention and support.
But regardless of Assir’s spike in popularity since early 2012, Muhanna maintains there is still a long way to go before Islamist political influence is heavily felt in Lebanon.
“The wide-right [Islamists] are not mainstream and nowhere near the mainstream,” he insists.
Muhanna says Islamists such as Assir face “too many barriers” to political success at present, though this could change if a new electoral system is adopted or if Islamist movements begin to obtain a “critical mass” large enough to make their mark on the Sunni political landscape. In fact, the Islamist phenomenon in Lebanon and its neighbors may simply be a reflection of regional political activity. After years of oppression under authoritarian dictatorships, Islamist parties have now come to power in Egypt and Tunisia. At the same time, events in Syria have left many wondering what role Islamists will play if and when the regime of Bashar Assad falls.
There are many ways to predict the future, though as Machiavelli once said, “Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past.”Nadim Shehadi, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, likens the rise in Islamist movements to historical trends in the Middle East.
“If you look at snapshots from different periods of the 20th century, you can have three characteristic ones that represent the ... changes of moods that follow major regional shocks,” he says.“For example, 10 to 15 years after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, [there was] a ruling elite dominated by liberal, rather Western-leaning notables. They created constitutions inspired by the West and built opera houses. “Ten to 15 years after the shock of the 1948 [Arab-Israeli war] defeat, these were replaced by the Free Officer types, socialist, authoritarian, pro-Soviet types who were doing land reforms and building dams. “Then comes the 1967 [Middle East war] defeat, and 10 to 15 years after that the image changes to beards, turbans and robes with the rise of Islamists. By the early 1980s, images of the Iranian Revolution, the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, [Hezbollah], Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood dominate the region.”
Shehadi believes that the region’s contemporary developments stem from either the events of Sept. 11, 2001, or the fall of Baghdad under Saddam Hussein – or even both.
He also notes that contemporary regional trends have sometimes influenced countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, leaving analysts to wonder whether the “Arab Spring” will extend into such relatively far-off, non-Arab countries.
As with the Western-leaning liberals and the elites that followed the Ottoman Empire, and the socialists and allies of the Soviet Union who wielded power during the middle years of the 20th century, it is now the turn of ideology-bereft Arab autocrats to be replaced.
Shehadi believes the Islamists are not immune to this cycle, and that they too will experience a prolonged decline.
“It took 20 years for [Islamist movements] to rise, and if it means that the reversal will take the same time this is very significant indeed.”

Report: Islamic Jihad leadership leaves Syria
Ynet Published: 07.21.12/Terror organization moves operations to Iran due to volatile security situation, Asharq Al-Awsat reports; Source in Gaza Strip denies report . The leadership of the Palestinian branch of Islamic Jihad has relocated from Syria to Iran due to the growing unrest in the country, London-based Asharq Al-Awsat reported Saturday. According to Palestinian sources quoted by the paper, Ramadan Shallah, the Islamic Jihad's leader, is now based in Iran, and his deputy had also relocated to the Islamic Republic several weeks ago. The sources noted that the move did not bare any consequences on the terrorist groups' relations with the Syrian regime and President Bashar Assad.
However, an Islamic Jihad source in Gaza Strip denied the report, Israel's Army Radio reported on Saturday. "The movement cannot abandon its Syrian brothers at hard times like these," the source said, adding that the Islamic Jihad is providing aid to Palestinian refugees who are living in Syria.
"The departure from Syria of some of Jihad's leadership is a part of overseas activities and is not final," he noted.
In February, the newspaper reported that Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal has temporarily moved the group's activities to Qatar. Mashaal was quoted as saying he cannot receive visitors in Syria due to the volatile security situation there.
Asharq Al-Awsat quoted Palestinian sources as saying that most senior Hamas operatives have already left Syria, adding that the Islamist group's leaders do not plan on returning to Damascus at this stage, in part because the Muslim Brotherhood, which is linked to Hamas, has a key role in the uprising against Assad.

How to deal with a wounded lion?
By Tariq Alhomayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
With the al-Assad regime yesterday announcing the death of its intelligence chief, who is the fourth person to have been killed by the explosion at the national security headquarters in Damascus, the magnitude of the blow that the regime of the tyrant received has become increasingly clear. This is why the regime has begun to deal with this incident in a diluted manner, apportioning the news to the Syrian people in order to mitigate the horror of this blow which it has yet to recover from.
This is increasingly evident as a result of the progress in the field being achieved by the Free Syrian Army [FSA], particularly its capture of border checkpoints along the Syrian – Iraqi and Syrian –Turkish borders, not to mention its control of some areas of Damascus, Aleppo and elsewhere. Therefore it is clear today that al-Assad himself, as well as his regime, are experiencing a state of extreme bewilderment, and this is something that also applies to al-Assad’s allies. For despite Russia and China utilizing their veto for the third time at the UN Security Council, Russia’s envoy to Paris issued a statement saying that al-Assad is ready to stop down, but in a “civilized manner”. However he soon returned to correct this statement, despite the fact that the Russian ambassador did acknowledge that with the developments taking place on the ground in Syria, it would be difficult to imagine al-Assad surviving, not to mention the severe escalation in the pace of defections from al-Assad’s forces.
All of this demonstrates that al-Assad today is isolated at home and wounded, particularly as he has been subject to difficult and humiliating blows, not just in front of the international community and the Syrian people, but also in front of his small inner circle and in the eyes of his own forces. Indeed, al-Assad, just like Gaddafi, has seen the FSA tearing down and defacing his image, trampling on it with their feet, so the question that must be asked here is: how will the wounded al-Assad act now? Will he flee? Will he continue to remain silent? Or will he resort to even more insanity, carrying out even worse crimes against the Syrian people? Of course, anything is possible, but it would be a disastrous mistake to wait and see what al-Assad will do, particularly as the death toll in Syria is on the rise in an alarming manner as a result of the actions of al-Assad’s forces. Therefore, following the prompt failure of the UN Security Council as a result of Moscow and Beijing standing behind this criminal regime, what we must do today – as Mr. Walid Jumblatt said – is increase our support to the FSA to an unprecedented levels, in terms of arms, equipment and intelligence. This is in order to turn the last page on the era of the tyrant of Damascus. It is clear today that al-Assad is reeling, and his ouster is inevitable, and may take place suddenly, however what is certain is that this will have been very costly for the Syrian people. This is something that we have been saying since the situation in Syria moved towards armed confrontation, which was due to the actions of the al-Assad regime, not the revolution, as some have claimed. Al-Assad is the one who went too far by utilizing the security solution, and he is responsible for the deaths of nearly 17,000 Syrians until today. Therefore, delaying the coup de grace against al-Assad will cost everybody; the Syrian people, neighboring states, and the region as a whole. Therefore we must increase our support for the FSA now, with regards to providing arms and intelligence, for the issue is not one of escalation, but rather turning the page on an evil and criminal regime whose time is up. This regime is already over, and delaying its elimination will only mean even more suffering and danger to everybody, without exception.

Still options for under-pressure Assad: experts
July 21, 2012/Daily Star/PARIS: A fight to the death to keep Damascus, a fall back to his Alawite strongholds or even exile abroad - experts say Syrian President Bashar Assad must be considering a range of choices in the face of an armed rebellion. And each, they say, is fraught with risks. For now the embattled leader's focus is on retaining control of the capital, where Syrian forces launched an all-out assault on opposition strongholds on Friday two days after a bomb attack killed four senior members of the regime.
"As long as Assad controls the capital, he controls the government and has legitimate power," said Fabrice Balanche, an analyst with the Mediterranean and Middle East Studies and Research Group in Paris.
"The redeployment of troops from the Golan and the Iraqi border to the capital, at the risk of stripping other fronts, shows that he is going to stay," Balanche said.
"There is a scorched earth dimension in Damascus," said a source with close knowledge of the regime, adding that the idea seemed to be to hold on to areas almost to the bitter end and "fall back if you don't succeed".If Damascus was lost, experts believe there are plans for Assad to seek refuge among his minority Alawite ethnic group in the northeastern mountains of the country. Regime opponents have for months contended that Assad and his allies have been stockpiling arms, including heavy weapons, in the area.
"It is very likely that he will embark on a desperate battle from this redoubt," said Joseph Bahout, a Middle East analyst at the Paris-based Institute for Political Studies.
"The defence could last for months," he said, adding that the conflict could then take on an ethnic dimension, as a battle between Alawites and the country's Sunni majority.
"(Assad) is perhaps hoping that this will entail an international response to put an end to the conflict with a partition" that would allow Assad's regime to survive in some form, Bahout said. But as the region is a mixed one that is home not only to Alawites, this option could lead to an especially bloody civil conflict, experts said. "This region will fiercely defend its territory. To create a redoubt would require uniformity and there are fears of ethnic cleansing," said Thomas Pierret, a Syria expert at the University of Edinburgh.
Several experts said there was also a chance that the Alawites would decide Assad was doing more harm than good and turn against him.
"Ultimately he could be rejected by the Alawites as someone who failed to protect the community and may be sacrificed," Balanche said.
As for a Yemen-style regime-led transition that would see Assad leave power in exchange for immunity, experts said that option was becoming less likely by the day.
"I don't think a regime-led transition is possible in Syria given the blood that has been shed and the battles we are going to see. This regime is not going to give up easily, trust me," said Salman Shaikh, a Syria expert at the Brookings Doha Centre.
That leaves potential exile as an option, with countries including Russia, Iran and Belarus often mentioned as possible destinations.
The source with close knowledge of the regime said Assad could escape by boat from Tartus or by plane from Damascus.
But that might not resolve the crisis, the source said, and could leave behind powerful regime figures who would be "tempted to go even further with the horror".

Putin and Nasrallah’s sorrows
By Mshari al-Zaydi/Asharq Alawsat
Seventeen months after the outbreak of the popular revolution against the rule of Bashar al-Assad, we have finally reached the critical stage, the final countdown.
Two days ago, the Free Syrian Army [FSA] reached the Damascus suburbs, and at the time of writing it appears that the FSA was responsible for killing the top security leadership that is in charge of the Syrian killing machine which has been raging since the start of the al-Assad sponsored suppression. A bomb struck the al-Assad security headquarters in Damascus, which was housing some of al-Assad’s commanders of murder and mayhem, including his own brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, General Daoud Rajiha and the “mastermind” General Hassan Turkmani, amongst others.
In the meantime, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting regarding the situation in Syria, hoping to issue an international resolution to stop the violence, sanction the al-Assad regime and stop the flow of arms into the country in general, including to the opposition. However, as was expected, the Russian bear jumped onto the UN Security Council table and rejected this resolution, raising its veto in its claw, followed closely by the Chinese dragon. This was a provocative stance challenging the world’s feelings of concern and sympathy regarding the situation in Syria. This also represents a new confirmation of Russia and China's lack of wisdom, not to mention their seeming lack of concern regarding their public image.
In any case, the huge amount of documents that have been filed in these international negotiations, not to mention the travel expenses, the grandiose discourse and political machinations and deceit between different international political forces, have all been for nothing. Russian envoy to the UN, Vitaly Churkin’s vetoing of the resolution containing the least that anybody can do regarding the situation in Syria, namely impose sanctions on the al-Assad regime, polarized the entire world. However it is the people in Syria that have revealed the truth of the situation by imposing a new reality on the ground.
The UN Security Council no longer has any meaning or effectiveness regarding the Syrian crisis; this is nothing more than a boxing match between Putin and his comrades in one corner and the West in the other; however its outcome is meaningless. The reality is what is being said and done by the youth in Syria, including targeting the leadership in Damascus that was in charge of the violence, and this is what will force Russia, China and the West to take the appropriate political decisions.
Russia can utilize its veto hundreds of time; it is a meaningless act as long as there is somebody on the ground [in Syria] driving events.
As we – and others – have previously stated, we must forget the UN Security Council, for it is clear that Russia and its attendant China are in al-Assad’s camp, and are using the international envoy, Kofi Annan, to hinder the revolution and grant al-Assad the kiss of life. We must also forget Nabil Elaraby’s insignificant Arab League, and his shrewd statements, for it is clear that he always takes a line that is consistent with the “official” Egyptian view, even during the reign of the Muslim Brotherhood. This view is based on issuing condemnations and denunciation and calling for an end to the bloodshed, and providing morale support to the Syrian people, but then confirming – in a firm and intransigent manner – rejection of any international intervention to save the Syrian people, under the pretext that this is an internal Syrian affair. For example, Muslim Brotherhood senior figure Essam al-Arian, who has also adopted this approach of criticizing Syria, previously welcomed the Libyan revolution against Gaddafi, whilst NATO and American fighter jets and rockets were utilized during this, and considered halal! So how can we understand this?
Whatever the case, the Syrian revolution is leading the international efforts, and Putin, Lavrov, Elaraby, Annan, Khamenei and of course, the tormented Hassan Nasrallah have no choice but to follow the path being blazed by the Syrian revolutionaries on the ground.
Such a case goes beyond political discourse, because we are facing a scene in which the best and worst of our nature are being mixed together, and this brings to mind the famous proverb of Abu Tammam to the Caliph Motasem:
Truer than words of books is the sword in its tidings,
Its edge is the boundary between seriousness and rompings.