LCCC NEWS BULLETIN
MAY 12/2006

Below news bulletins from the Daily Star for 12/05/06
Officials hope to provide expats with identity cards
Syria faces heavy pressure at UN to help draw border
Assad ready to receive Siniora, establish embassies
Bakers put off strike, but only until next week
Qassem accuses Geagea of 'inventing crisis'
Siniora urges dialogue to end economic crisis
March 14 Forces slam political turn in rally
UN to insist Damascus meet its demands
Cabinet members duel over protest
PLO bureau 'will advance dialogue
Hamas defends Palestinian arms in Lebanon
Rights group: Hariri tribunal needs broad net
Siniora invites suggestions to improve reform plan
Bomb rocks plant owned by prominent Hizbullah member
Now is decision time, Sayyed Nasrallah-By Fouad Hamdan
Below news bulletins from miscellaneous sources for 12/05/06
Jordan plot suspects say they trained in Syria-Washington Post
Amman: Hamas training recruits in Syria, Iran-Ha'aretz
U.S., France Circulate Draft U.N. Resolution on Syria and Lebanon, Naharnet
HRW Says Hariri Tribunal Should Prosecute Other Bombings-Naharnet
Assad ready to meet Siniora-Middle East Online
Lebanon asks UK to pressure Israel to quit Shaba Farms-Ha'aretz
Sudan renews Lebanon-Syria mediation-UPI
Taking Aim at Syria and Hizballah: W. Jumblat's Brave Stance-WIfNEP
US, France circulates draft UN resolution on Syria-Xinhua - China
Russia against new UN move on Syria-Aljazeera.net - Qatar
Syria Takes in PA Refugees From Iraq-Arutz Sheva
Lebanon Asks England to Push Israel out of Sheba Farms-Arutz Sheva
US, France in accord on next steps for Lebanon-Jerusalem Post
Tent Set up at Hariri Bomb Site to Explore Underground Blast Theory-Naharnet
Syria Condemns Extension of Sanctions-Naharnet
Syria Advises U.S. not to Meddle in Lebanese-Syrian Affairs-Naharnet
A Short History of Unilateral Separation-CounterPunch
I Was an Icelandic War Criminal-National Review Online
A logical imperative-Washington Times-By Farid Ghadry-May 10, 2006 

Officials hope to provide expats with identity cards
By Youssef Diab -Special to The Daily Star
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: Ministers and legal experts on Thursday discussed the idea of providing Lebanese expatriates with a card that allows them to enter the Lebanese territory without a visa. Justice Minister Charles Rizk, Foreign Minster Fawzi Salloukh and Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat met at Rizk's office to discuss the expatriate card, which the state is considering granting to Lebanese expatriates who do not hold a Lebanese passport. Rizk said the initiative aims to grant Lebanese expatriates the right to enter their country without a visa, as well as all other national rights except the right to vote. Rizk called on all Lebanese ex-pats to get the card so they could visit their homeland and invest in the country. The minister said the final draft of the law had been completed and would be submitted to the Cabinet soon, to be then passed by Parliament. "The Lebanese diaspora is a great source of wealth to Lebanon," he said.Salloukh said that Lebanese ex-pats could present an application to the relevant Lebanese embassy or consul in their country of residence.

Syria faces heavy pressure at UN to help draw border
By Majdoline Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: A draft resolution asking Syria to comply with Lebanon's call to demarcate borders and establish diplomatic ties is set to be circulated among Security Council members Friday. Excerpts of the text, drafted by the U.S., France and co-sponsored by Britain, were leaked to reporters Thursday, and said Syria's cooperation "would constitute a significant step" toward asserting Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence and improving bilateral ties.
The draft also calls on Damascus to take measures to prevent further movements of arms into Lebanese territory in line with previous UN resolutions. It urges "all concerned states and parties" to cooperate fully with the Lebanese government and the UN to achieve this goal. The text also welcomes the decision by all Lebanese parties "to disarm Palestinian militias outside refugee camps within six months," and calls for further efforts to disband and disarm all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.
The draft also expresses regret that the militias have not been disbanded, that the Lebanese government's authority has not been extended throughout the country, that Lebanon's sovereignty and political independence are not being fully respected, and that free and fair presidential polls without foreign interference have not been held.
The draft was discussed Tuesday during talks between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her French counterpart, Philippe Douste-Blazy, on the sidelines of UN talks on Iran's nuclear program.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Wednesday Rice and Douste-Blazy reached broad agreement on future diplomatic steps to curb Syrian interference in Lebanon, adding: "I think there was a real convergence of views on the issue."
He said Lebanon was a priority and that he expected the Security Council to vote on the resolution soon.
"I can't give you the exact date. I would expect in a matter of days ... I know that they have a pretty full calendar at the Security Council, but it's a priority along with passage of the Darfur resolution," he said.
But it was still not certain Thursday whether the draft resolution would be passed, with Russia standing against issuing such a resolution. "We do not feel any need for big moves now," said Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin.
"As far as we are concerned, everything is working fine now" between Lebanon and Syria.
But U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the draft would soon be circulated among the council's 15 members and he hoped for "fairly prompt action."Aside from urging for formal diplomatic ties and a full demarcation of the border between the two countries, the U.S. was pushing for the draft to mention the disarmament of Hizbullah and Iranian-Syrian support for the resistance, mentioned in Roed-Larsen's report. But UN sources said French Ambassador Jean-Marc de la Sabliere had contemplated a narrower measure, fearing the U.S. approach might bog down in the council. British Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry had tried to mediate between the two. The meeting between Rice and her French counterpart seemed to have ironed out the differences. Council diplomats said the compromise draft would not mention Iran or Hizbullah by name.
Bolton said: "We've worked out a formulation where it will be clear when it is circulated later today that the behavior of Iran in Lebanon, as with the behavior of Syria, will be covered." De la Sabliere said: "The objective is to assist the Lebanese government ... Siniora has asked us to focus on the question of the demarcation of boundaries ... and that is what the resolution is doing now," adding: "Syria has to deliver."

'Assad ready to receive Siniora, establish embassies'
Sudanese presidential adviser conveys Syria's message to Lebanese FM
By Nada Bakri -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: Syrian President Bashar Assad is "ready" to receive Lebanon's premier and establish embassies with Lebanon, a Sudanese official on a mediation initiative between the two countries said on Thursday. Siniora has been attempting to arrange a visit to Damascus in a bid to improve strained relations with the Syrian regime.
He wants to discuss the establishment of embassies in the two countries, the demarcation of borders and cooperation in establishing the Lebanese identity of the Shebaa Farms. Syrian officials previously said Siniora's visit would only be possible once the two sides agree on the agenda of his talks.
"President Assad said Syria was ready to receive the premier and to exchange diplomatic relations with Lebanon," said Sudan's presidential adviser Mustafa Osman Ismail following a meeting with Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said Thursday that Damascus welcomes any Lebanese official who aims to improve the "negative atmosphere between the two countries."
"Syria's gates are open to all the Lebanese, including Premier Fouad Siniora, if the motive behind their visit is to improve our bilateral ties," Moallem told Kuwait's News Agency on the eve of his visit to the Gulf state.
Moallem will be visiting Kuwait City a few days after Lebanese officials traveled to the Gulf state for talks with its leaders.
But Moallem denied his visit was in any way connected to that of his Lebanese counterparts, saying: "I received an invitation to visit Kuwait some time ago and it was renewed now."He added said Syria is keen on "establishing great relations with a stable and prosperous Lebanon," and welcomed all Arab efforts to soften the two neighboring states' relations.
Moallem's comments also came days after Speaker Nabih Berri met with Assad. The foreign minister said Berri's visit was in line with his role as the sponsor of the Lebanese national dialogue, which he said the Syrian regime supports.
However, the Syrian official lashed out at the UN for "complicating the conflict with Lebanon rather than easing it."
France and the U.S. on Wednesday circulated a draft UN resolution urging Syria to formally establish bilateral diplomatic ties with Lebanon and demarcate their common border.Moallem said demarcating the borders with Lebanon is a bilateral issue and that "pending issues with Lebanon would be solved either directly between the two states or through Arab reconciliatory efforts."He added that Kuwait had played a key role in easing tensions on Syria following the passing of Security Council Resolution 1559, which stipulated that Syrian troops withdraw from Lebanon and called on all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias to disarm. Ismail, who recently met with Assad and Moallem, said the Syrians are "keen on establishing normal and special relations with Lebanon and stress the need for calm between the two countries."
The delegate, whose country hosted an Arab League Summit in March, was due to meet with various political figures, including MP Walid Jumblatt, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah and MP Michel Aoun.
Ismail said he hoped to develop new ideas that will help improve relations between the two countries, strained following the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri in February 2005. "My visit is aimed at easing tensions between the two countries and at paving the way for holding Lebanese-Syrian consultations. I have exchanged some ideas with President Assad and with the Lebanese officials ... I am aware resolving the conflict may not happen overnight but I hope we'll see progress," Ismail said following a meeting with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. Ismail said the Sudanese initiative sought to ensure support for the international investigation into Hariri's assassination, strengthening Lebanese-Lebanese relations, and normalizing Lebanese-Syrian ties.

Bakers put off strike, but only until next week
By Leila Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: Lebanon's bakers "will not go on strike [yet], nor will the price of bread rise," the head of the Bakery Owners Union said on Thursday. Kazem Ibrahim made the comments following an emergency meeting of the union, which had previously threatened to strike if the government did not lower the cost of supplies or provide some type of aid.
"The sugar, plastic and diesel-oil prices have risen considerably," Ibrahim told The Daily Star, but the price of bread remains the same, "and no one from the current authority has decided to help us."Bakeries use diesel oil to fuel their ovens, sugar for bread and plastic as packaging.Ibrahim said Economy Minister Sami Haddad "has all his doors closed." He added: "Despite the fact that Haddad agreed that our demands are reasonable, he said he cannot help us ... If he cannot, then who can?"
"We assembled today with the option of striking in mind, but due to several calls from officials and religious leaders we have decided to delay it until next Tuesday," said Ibrahim.Haddad had asked for a delay of four days.
"We are more generous than Haddad and decided to grant him an extra week," Ibrahim said. "Our general assembly will convene on Tuesday [to] decide what to do. If our demands are not met, the strike will most probably start on Wednesday."
He added: "I pledge no allegiance to the March 14 Forces, or the March 8 Forces. If I favored [them] surely the union would have received its full rights."

Qassem accuses Geagea of 'inventing crisis'
By Mira Borji -Special to The Daily Star
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: Hizbullah's Sheikh Naim Qassem has for the first time included Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in his frequent accusations that members of the March 14 Forces are "exposing Lebanon to Israeli interests and American plans."
In an interview with Ad-Diyar published on Thursday, the resistance's deputy secretary general said that recent comments by Geagea and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt concerning Hizbullah's weapons have been little more than a rehashing of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. "Both leaders have invented a crisis called 'Lebanon's sovereignty over the Shebaa Farms' at the UN's request, and notably that of the United States," he added.
The sheikh said once more that Hizbullah refused UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen's proposal to merge the resistance's military wing into the Army. Asked about the status of the presidency, Qassem urged the March 14 Forces to admit their "failure" to topple President Emile Lahoud and their inability to come up with a sole candidate for the presidency.
"They have proposed three names, including MP Michel Aoun, in a bid to escape commitment to one person," he said.
The sheikh went on to say that should the March 14 members put forth Aoun's name for the post in the coming dialogue session scheduled for next Tuesday, Hizbullah would make their position clear.
But Qassem added that Lahoud should abide by the Constitution and remain in office until the end of his extended term.
As for a recent meeting between resistance leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and MP Saad Hariri, Qassem said: "Hizbullah is keen on ameliorating its relation with the Future Movement, but it does not mean that it agrees with Hariri's positions regarding Lebanese questions."Asked about the foiled assassination attempt on Nasrallah, he said the terrorist network accused of having plotted the attack was "real," but that political pressures applied to army intelligence had forced the investigation to be handed to the judiciary before an adequate probe was conducted.He also called on the government to focus on socio-economic conditions in Lebanon, and vowed Hizbullah would work to meet the people's needs.

Siniora urges dialogue to end economic crisis
By Therese Sfeir -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 12, 2006
BEIRUT: Premier Fouad Siniora said Thursday he respected the right to hold demonstrations but solutions must be reached to end the country's economic crisis. Addressing journalists in Parliament Thursday, Siniora said: "I respect democracy, but I urge all parties to return to talks to resolve pending problems."As to whether the Cabinet would resign, the premier said: "As long as we have Parliament's trust, we won't resign."Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Beirut Wednesday, calling on the government to cancel an economic reform plan they fear will increase taxes and deprive state employees of benefits and employment security. The Progressive Socialist Party said Wednesday's protest was "political par excellence and met Syrian orders to topple the government and worsen the country's internal situation."
Following a party meeting headed by Walid Jumblatt, the PSP said Wednesday's rally also aimed at "hampering the implementation of the decisions made during the national dialogue and the creation of an international tribunal to try those responsible for the killing of former Premier Rafik Hariri." The party voiced support for the government, saying: "Cabinet is the only place to discuss the government's reform plan."Finance Minister Jihad Azour said the protest was against issues that "were not included in the reform plan."
In an interview with Voice of Lebanon Thursday, Azour said: "I respect democracy, but ... the employment contract plan was not within the reform plan."He added that when the economic plan was discussed during the national dialogue there were "no objections from any of the participants."Azour said he was surprised by the fact that the Free Patriotic Movement supported the demonstration, "even though its reform plan was much more liberal than the government's."
Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea said "some parties wanted to hamper Lebanon's development and freedom."
Agriculture Minister Talal Sahili said the government should "understand the people's sufferings and fears," and focused on the importance of "communication to resolve all economic, social and political problems."
After a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, MP Butros Harb said the rally could lead to "serious repercussions and hamper the achievement of the national decisions," adding: "Taking to the streets to express political opinions could deteriorate the situation and threaten the country's future."Meanwhile, the National Bloc supported teachers and state employees in rejecting the employment contract plans.In a statement issued after its Thursday meeting, the bloc called on union committees to continue their talks with the government over the reform plan.But the bloc slammed "some parties' insistence on using economic issues to meet their political interests without proposing any alternative solutions for the economic problems."
In response to criticisms of the FPM leveled Wednesday by Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, Reform and Change MP Nabil Nicolas said: "We will never forget [Gemayel's] hatred of the Lebanese people, after he divided them into 'quality and quantity groups.'" He added: "The minister should not forget that he does not only represent his master (the Future Movement), but he is also an MP who was given a parliamentary seat through the help of his colleagues."

Bomb rocks plant owned by prominent Hizbullah member
By Mohammed Zaatari -Daily Star staff
Friday, May 12, 2006
TYRE: The latest in a string of bombings apparently targeting Hizbullah took place in Tyre on Wednesday night when a 15-kilogram explosive device was detonated at a manufacturing plant owned by a prominent member of the resistance. The plant suffered extensive damage to its main gate and interior in the blast, which blew a large crater at the entrance. The plant, owned by Hussein Youssef, makes electrical cable. Civil Defense personnel, medics, police and forensic experts arrived on the scene shortly after the blast, immediately cordoning off the site as they began to conduct an investigation into the incident.
Wednesday's blast was the third in a series of such incidents that began with a similar 2004 bombing of an armory in a building owned by another prominent Hizbullah member. In 2005, a local resistance member's home was the target of a similar blast.
Sources told The Daily Star that yesterday's explosion was similar in size and method to the two that preceded it. Ali Yaacoub, who lives near the cable plant, said the blast was "big," but that "fortunately it did not cause any deaths."Sources also told The Daily Star that a medium-sized truck had been inside the plant under a tarp before the blast. They added that Hizbullah members immediately withdrew the damaged truck after the explosion.

Now is decision time, Sayyed Nasrallah
By Fouad Hamdan -Commentary by
Friday, May 12, 2006
When Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000, Hizbullah rightly claimed a historic victory. Your party, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, for the first time did what no Arab army or guerrilla force had: it imposed on Israel a humiliating withdrawal from occupied territories without negotiations. Hizbullah was respected all over, and in Lebanon all communities were united in praising the sacrifice paid with the souls of hundreds of fighters and civilians in southern Lebanon. Even Western nations had no sympathy for the Israeli occupiers and their brutal policies. The battle for the liberation of the South, carried out mainly by Shiite Hizbullah fighters under the banner of the Lebanese resistance, was legitimate. That was the consensus in Lebanon and abroad. During the past six years, however, the mood has been shifting, both inside Lebanon and outside. There is growing belligerence toward your party. It all started shortly after the Israeli withdrawal with the surprise decision by the Lebanese and Syrian governments to say that the Shebaa Farms were Lebanese. Hizbullah, armed with "legitimacy," kept the border with Israel hot and retained its weapons, undermining the 1989 Taif peace accord that had disarmed Lebanese armed groups and helped end the Civil War.
The Shebaa Farms front was a poisoned gift from the Syrian regime to Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah. Hizbullah nevertheless accepted it. And, so, the killing in the South continued because Damascus wanted to maintain leverage over Israel in any future negotiations over the Golan Heights.The fact is that the Shebaa Farms were under Syrian sovereignty when they were occupied by Israel during the June 1967 war. The 14 farms were and still are Israeli-occupied Syrian territory, at least in the view of the United Nations, which no one can suspect of being pro-Israeli. Since 1978, the world body has been supporting Lebanon through an interim force in southern Lebanon, which has lost more then 250 of its personnel while protecting inhabitants of the area. As of May 2000, Sayyed Nasrallah, Hizbullah accepted to play a role similar to that played by the Palestine Liberation Organization from the 1960s until it was evicted from Lebanon in 1982. Over the years, PLO attacks against Israel from Lebanon led to the loss of many lives and to massive destruction of property and infrastructure. Tens of thousands of refugees flooded to the southern suburbs of Beirut. They and their descendants are your constituency. Do you want to repeat that experience and add more desperation to their current misery?
Hizbullah, during the past six years, has launched numerous attacks against Israeli border positions, mainly in and around the Shebaa Farms. The bloodiest clash occurred in November 2005, when three Hizbullah fighters were killed near the border village of Ghajar. Why were these men, or others, sacrificed, Sayyed Nasrallah? They had no chance against the entrenched Israelis, who also benefit from international legitimacy because they are deployed behind the UN's so-called Blue Line. Sadly, today it is Hizbullah that is being described by the UN as an aggressor is southern Lebanon and the one starting senseless fights.
Meanwhile, your party has amassed a military arsenal in the South, enabling it to massively shell towns and villages deep into northern Israel. Why this military build-up? Only to liberate the Shebaa Farms? Or to respond to a possible American strike against Iranian nuclear installations? Or to help the Syrians pressure the Israelis to return the Golan Heights? Or to ease international pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad because of his suspected responsibility for the murder of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri?
Southern Lebanon and all its communities, including your Shiite followers, have paid a bitter price over the past four decades for being cannon fodder for the PLO, Syria and Iran. All the Lebanese have sacrificed much, especially you, Sayyed Nasrallah, when one of your sons died resisting the Israelis. In May 2000 the killing should have stopped and the diplomatic battle should have begun to return the Shebaa Farms - if only the Syrian regime would decide to officially notify the UN that they are Lebanese. Damascus has refused to do so, despite all appeals. Why don't you publicly ask Assad to send that needed letter to the UN?
Meanwhile, Hizbullah argues that it needs arms to repel "Israeli aggression." What aggression, Sayyed Nasrallah? The Israelis, since May 2000, have been more than happy to be out of Lebanon. The occupation of the South traumatized them. They just want to be left alone behind the Blue Line. Israel's regular violations of Lebanese airspace and its military maneuvers along the border are merely meant to send a message to your fighters: Leave us in peace or the Lebanese will again pay a bloody price, like in the bad old days of the PLO.
Fortunately, until now Hizbullah has not fully imitated the suicidal policies of the PLO. It tends to avoid dragging the Israeli military machine into the kind of massive retaliation we all remember too well. But what will you do, Sayyed Nasrallah, if Tehran asks for a special favor after - God forbid - an American strike against Iranian nuclear installations? How will you react if Damascus sends a request for a favor when the UN blames the Syrian leadership for Hariri's murder, and scrambles to impose sanctions? Will Hizbullah listen to the Iranian and Syrian rulers and unleash a barrage of rockets against Israel? Will you provoke large-scale tragedy in southern Lebanon?
Your party is at a crossroads, and the time has come for you to make historic decisions before it is too late. It is time to show that Hizbullah is loyal to Lebanon and not to any other country. It is time to tell Iran that solidarity has its limits. It is also time to wish the doomed Syrian regime good luck, and time for your fighters to integrate in the Lebanese Army with dignity. Perhaps, Sayyed Nasrallah, you have reservations about sending your fighters into an army partly under the control of President Emile Lahoud, who is controlled from afar by his vengeful counterpart in Damascus. The solution is to support the Lebanese government, of which Hizbullah is part, to unseat Lahoud, one of whose closest aides is still in jail for his alleged involvement in Hariri's assassination.
Sayyed Nasrallah, allow Hizbullah to regain its eroded credibility by giving a decisive impetus to the stalled national dialogue when it reconvenes. Participate in formulating a national defense strategy, including de-mining the South where everyday people die or are maimed. Help implement an international diplomatic offensive to liberate all Lebanese prisoners in Israel and Syria, and urge Syria to provide the necessary documents so the Shebaa Farms can be recognized as Lebanese. Be part of a humanitarian solution to the misery of the Palestinians in the refugee camps. And become actively involved in the drive for the economic recovery of Lebanon, especially the underdeveloped and impoverished South.
**Fouad Hamdan, a Shiite Lebanese from the South, set up Greenpeace in Lebanon in 1994-1999. He is now executive director of a campaign and lobby organization in Brussels influencing the environmental policies of the European Union. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

Amman: Hamas training recruits in Syria, Iran
By Reuters -AMMAN - Jordan accused Hamas yesterday of trying to recruit operatives to undergo military training in Syria and Iran and stage attacks in Jordan, and said that it had found new weapons that included Iranian rocket launchers. Government spokesman Nasser Joudeh gave reporters details of the plot, which he said were revealed during interrogations of 20 Hamas operatives arrested by security forces last month.
"Hamas was attempting to recruit elements in the Jordanian arena and trying to recruit elements from abroad to send to Syria and Iran to get military training," Joudeh said.
Jordan said last month that rocket launchers, detonators and explosives seized from a secret Hamas arms cache in the kingdom had been smuggled from Syria, where the Palestinian group's exiled leadership is based.
Joudeh said that authorities were still searching for other arms caches that Hamas had hidden across the country.
"The security forces believe there are more weapons and rocket launchers that have not been uncovered yet," he said. "Among the weapons seized recently were Iranian rocket launchers."
"This poses a major threat to the national security of the country, and we will hold those behind this accountable," he added. After the arms cache discovery, Jordan canceled a planned visit by Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar. A week later, it said that a group of Hamas activists arrested by its security forces were close to staging attacks on senior Jordanian officials on orders from its Syrian-based leadership.
A Hamas leader in Gaza said that Jordan's new accusations were fabricated and aimed at raising tension.
"Hamas is sorry that Jordan is dealing [with Hamas] in this manner, making the issue bigger than it is," said Hamas lawmaker Mushir al-Masri. Hamas has repeatedly denied accusations that its members are involved in arms smuggling to Jordan from Syria, and has refused to join a committee set up by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to investigate the case with Jordanian officials. Joudeh said that a team headed by Tareq Abu Rajab, the Palestinian intelligence chief, began talks yesterday with top Jordanian security officials and was shown hard evidence to back up Amman's claims against Hamas. The government said it would soon televise confessions by Hamas operatives to quell widespread suspicion among ordinary Jordanians that the government has trumped up the charges as a pretext to sever ties with the Palestinian group

US, France in accord on next steps for Lebanon
By ASSOCIATED PRESS-WASHINGTON
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy reached broad agreement on future diplomatic steps to curb Syrian interference in Lebanon, the State Department said Wednesday. The two diplomats discussed the Lebanon question at a dinner Tuesday night in New York.
"I think there was a real convergence of views on the issue," department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
He said the United States hopes for quick approval of a new UN Security Council resolution on Lebanon, which probably would urge Syria to open diplomatic relations with Lebanon.

Russia against new UN move on Syria
Thursday 11 May 2006, Russia has dismissed calls for a new UN Security Council resolution intensifying efforts to end Syrian involvement in Lebanon, as Britain, France and the US work out details of a draft text to circulate on the matter. Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the UN, said on Wednesday: "We do not feel any need for big moves now. As far as we are concerned. everything is working fine now [between Lebanon and Syria]."
But John Bolton, the US ambassador to the UN, said the text backed by London, Paris and Washington would soon be circulated among the council's 15 members and he hoped for "fairly prompt action".
Compromise Agreement among the three had been hampered by differences between the US and France over the text's breadth. But Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, and Philippe Douste-Blazy, the French foreign minister, worked out the details of the draft embraced by the three countries over dinner on Tuesday.
"There is no need whatsoever from Rice or Douste-Blazy to interfere in the internal affairs of Lebanon and in the affairs between Syria and Lebanon"
Faisal Mekdad, Syrian deputy foreign minister
The State Department said on Wednesday that Rice and Douste-Blazy had reached broad agreement on future diplomatic steps to curb Syrian interference in Lebanon. Sean McCormack, the State Department spokesman, said the US hopes for quick approval of a new UN Security Council resolution on Lebanon, which probably would urge Syria to open diplomatic relations with Lebanon. Council diplomats said the compromise draft would not mention Iran or Hezbollah - the Iranian- and Syrian-backed militia in south Lebanon - by name.
Syria reaction Syria, for its part, had argued that setting borders and diplomatic ties were none of the council's business.Faisal Mekdad, the Syrian deputy foreign minister, said in New York that the Security Council, and especially the US, should stop interfering in Lebanon-Syria relations. "There is no need whatsoever from Rice or Douste-Blazy to interfere in the internal affairs of Lebanon and in the affairs between Syria and Lebanon," Mekdad said. Syria withdrew from Lebanon in April 2005. The two countries have not had embassies on each other's territory since Western powers carved the two states out of the remnants of the Ottoman empire in 1920.
Damascus says its many bilateral ties with Beirut are enough for now. Agencies

US, France circulates draft UN resolution on Syria
www.chinaview.cn 2006-05-11 13:09:45
UNITED NATIONS, May 10 (Xinhua) -- The United States and France on Wednesday circulated among UN officials a draft UN resolution on improving the Syrian-Lebanese ties. The draft resolution, co-sponsored by Britain, urged Syria to formally establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon and demarcate their common border. The draft resolution also urged Syria to take measures to prevent future movements of arms into Lebanon in line with previous UN resolutions. The draft appealed to "all concerned states and parties" to cooperate fully with the Lebanese government and the UN to this end. It also welcomed the decision by all Lebanese parties "to disarm Palestinian militias outside refugee camps within six months." The draft was discussed Tuesday by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her French counterpart Philippe Douste-Blazy during their meeting on the sidelines of the UN talks on Iran. Rice said that the U.S. and France were cooperating closely "on the common goal of a democratic Lebanon." In line with UN Security Council Resolution 1559 passed in the previous year, Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2005 after 29 years of military and political domination of the small country.
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad said on Tuesday that his country was opposed to western countries' interference with its internal affairs. Enditem

PolicyWatch #1102
Taking Aim at Syria and Hizballah: Walid Jumblat's Brave Stance - By David Schenker
May 11, 2006
On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
No Angel
Jumblat did not always profess such laudable positions. After his father, Kamal Jumblat, was killed (purportedly by the Syrians) in 1977, Walid Jumblat became leader of the Druze and immediately struck a compromise with Syria. This accommodation involved serving in successive Syrian controlled Lebanese governments and at times establishing military alliances with the Syrians to protect the Druze community during the Lebanese Civil War. More recently, in October 2003, after then U.S. deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz came under hostile fire in Baghdad, Jumblat made a now infamous quip in which he referred to Wolfowitz as a "virus" and encouraged would-be attackers to be "more precise and efficient" in the future. As recently as April 2004, during a television interview with al-Arabiya, Jumblat implied that the September 11 attacks were part of a larger U.S. conspiracy. By many accounts, however, Jumblat was profoundly moved by the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the change in the U.S. policy regarding support for democracy in the Middle East. These factors -- and the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri -- appear to have contributed to Jumblat's reassessment of the U.S. role in the region.
A Busy Man
Since the Hariri murder, Jumblat has emerged as a key leader in the March 14 Movement, the anti-Syrian coalition headed by Hariri's son Saad Hariri, a parliamentarian and leader of the Future Party. Jumblat is head of the Progressive Socialist Party and leader of the Lebanese Druze community, which comprises roughly 10 percent of the population and controls some 15 of 128 parliamentary seats. But his role in Lebanon today -- and his moral authority -- far exceeds his Druze constituency. Jumblat has capitalized on his higher profile to make political statements that have pushed the envelope of Lebanese politics. This spring, Jumblat has been particularly busy with Syria:
Meeting Khaddam. In early March, Jumblat traveled to France to meet with former Syrian vice president Abdul Halim Khaddam, who had fled Syria in January 2006 to become a vocal proponent of regime change from exile in Paris. The meeting was widely reported by the press, though no details have emerged.
Visiting Washington. In March, Jumblat traveled to Washington for meetings with senior administration officials, including meetings at the vice president's office, the National Security Council, and the Departments of State and Defense. Jumblat made the trip, he said, because the Bush administration had given up its policy of supporting "friendly dictators" (such as Syria). Jumblat also met with Wolfowitz, who now heads the World Bank, and reportedly apologized for his earlier comments.
Building contacts with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. In late April, Jumblat met with a delegation of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood led by the organization's London based leader, Ali Sadr Eddin Bayanouni. The group is outlawed in Syria and membership is punishable by death. Following the meeting, Jumblat announced that he had signed a petition calling for an end to the ban on Muslim Brotherhood membership.
In April, Damascus responded to Jumblat's actions by issuing summonses to appear before a Syrian military court to him, his fellow anti-Syrian Druze compatriot Marwan Hamadeh, and al-Mustaqbal journalist Fares Khashan, accusing them of "inciting the U.S. administration to occupy Syria." The charges likely stemmed from comments Jumblat made to the Washington Post in January 2006 comparing Syria to Iraq: "You [the United States] came to Iraq in the name of majority rule" he said, "You can do the same thing in Syria."
So far, Jumblat appears unfazed by the charges. Following the announcement of the summons in April, Jumblat told reporters that he would "sue all of Syria for the murders they committed in Lebanon." For its part, Washington has condemned the warrant in the strongest terms. U.S. ambassador to Lebanon Jeffery Feltman described the move as "yet another cynical attempt by the Syrian government to continue its interference in the Lebanese political process . . . and intimidate the Lebanese people." Should Jumblat fail to appear in Damascus, he may be tried in absentia.
On the Domestic Front
Jumblat is also pursuing an anti-Syrian agenda in Lebanese domestic politics. Most of this effort is focused on weakening and removing Syrian appointed Lebanese president Emile Lahoud from power. Last week, Jumblat engineered a parliamentary vote on two bills concerning the Druze community, overriding Lahoud's objection to pass the bills into law. The laws in question will enable Jumblat to oust and replace the Druze spiritual leader and Jumblat's pro-Syrian political opponent Sheikh Bahjat Gaith with a Jumblat ally. This gambit will further undercut Lahoud's authority and help Jumblat consolidate control of his community.
At the same time, by publicly advocating the disarmament of Hizballah, Jumblat has entered into direct conflict with another formidable political enemy at home. Until recently, like other Lebanese politicians Jumblat had demurred on the issue of Hizballah weapons, calling instead for a national dialogue and consensus on the issue. Jumblat himself has long maintained that Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms are Syrian, not Lebanese territory, a distinction that obviates the need for Lebanese "resistance." Hence, in Cairo, Jumblat suggested that there was no longer any justification for Hizballah to bear arms. Rather, Jumblat said Hizballah should be absorbed by the Lebanese military -- a position advocated by many Lebanese politicians -- but he went one step further, asking, "Why should Lebanon alone continue to be an arena for Arab-Israeli conflict?" Not surprisingly, Hizballah was quick to condemn Jumblat's statement. Mohammed Raad, head of the Hizballah bloc in parliament, said, "No one can touch the resistance's weapons . . . it is the pride of this country."
Jumblat's statements will likely adversely effect the relations of Hariri's Future Party -- with which Jumblat is allied -- with Hizballah. Given the import that Hizballah and its Syrian and Iranian patrons assign the weapons, it is not inconceivable that these remarks could signal the end of the ongoing Lebanese National Dialogue -- the discussions of Lebanese politicians that started in March 2006. Then again, Hizballah could seek other less benign forms of retribution against Jumblat.
Threats Abound
Jumblat's statements and meetings have assuredly secured him the enmity of Syria and Hizballah (and by proxy, possibly Iran). Jumblat is convinced the Syrians killed his father, and is under no illusions about his precarious position with Damascus. He is likewise aware of the serious threat posed by Hizballah. (Indeed, according to the Jordan Times, Hizballah warned Lebanese prime minister Fuad Siniora not to discuss the issue of disarmament with President Bush during his April 2006 trip to Washington.) Although at times Jumblat appears to be a loose cannon, given the potential repercussions, his most recent pronouncements on Syria and Hizballah likely were not off the cuff.
Jumblat is an astute politician who does not appear to harbor a desire for personal martyrdom; in fact, he is taking precautions in Lebanon and abroad to protect himself. It could be that Jumblat's recent statements represent a politician liberated from the norms, constraints, and taboos of the Lebanese system. Alternatively, Jumblat may believe the provocations of Syria and Hizballah will raise his profile to such a level such that it provides him with a degree of protection.
Washington has an interest in seeing Jumblat continue his campaign against Syria and Hizballah's weapons. The United States should show support via continued high-profile meetings of senior administration officials with Jumblat in Lebanon and abroad. Given the bold stand that Jumblat has taken, this would be an appropriate time for the United States to reinvigorate its efforts to reduce ongoing Syrian interference in Lebanon and to begin at long last resolving the problem of Hizballah's militia.
**David Schenker is a senior fellow in Arab politics at The Washington Institute.

Syria Takes in PA Refugees From Iraq
19:20 May 10, '06 / 12 Iyar 5766
(IsraelNN.com) 244 people from Iraq, most of whom were identified as "Palestinian refugees" and therefore targeted for attacks by fellow Iraqis, were accepted into Syria yesterday. They were sent to a PLO refugee camp northeast of Damascus. The refugees have been living in limbo on the Jordan-Iraq border for several weeks, after the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan refused them entry.
A UN Media Relations and Public Information Officer, William Spindler, explained last month, "The group had left Baghdad out of fear for their security." Those identified,or self-identified, as Palestinian in Iraq have been suffering persecution and vengeful attacks by their Iraqi neighbors, as the community is known to have been loyal to Saddam Hussein. They consequently enjoyed a privileged status under Hussein's regime.
Most Palestinian Authority Arabs (92.1%) polled recently said that they considered Syria's decision to admit the refugees as "a step in the right direction."

Lebanon Asks England to Push Israel out of Sheba Farms
11:16 May 11,(IsraelNN.com) Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora said he has asked his British counterpart Tony Blair to pressure Israel to withdraw form the Sheba Farms, located along the international border with Lebanon. The area returned to Israel from Syria after the Six-Day War, but Lebanon claims the land as its territory.Siniora, part of the ant-Syrian coalition, said he also has asked the United Nations to back Lebanon's claim. The area includes large water reserves.

Lebanon asks U.K. to pressure Israel to quit Shaba Farms
By Yoav Stern -LONDON - Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora met this week with senior British government officials and asked them to pressure Israel to withdraw from Shaba Farms (Har Dov).
Siniora raised the issue in a meeting with Prime Minister Tony Blair earlier this week. In a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, he hinted that an Israeli pullout would help the Lebanese army to deploy in southern Lebanon, which is Hezbollah's stronghold.
The speech at Chatham House was the first time Siniora has implied a direct relationship between an Israeli withdrawal and disarming Hezbollah. "Israeli withdrawal is the correct way to create a situation in which the state controls all its territory and there are no nonstate arms," he said.
During the speech, there were exchanges between Siniora, Lebanese Foreign Minister and Hezbollah representative Fawzi Salloukh, and Israeli embassy official Roey Gilad.
Gilad argued that even if Israel does withdraw from Shaba Farms, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will find other excuses to fight. He was interrupted by Salloukh, who demanded that Gilad refer to Nasrallah by his religious designation, Sayid, instead of as "mister."
Siniora, to audience applause, also said that Israel must retreat from all territories occupied in 1967, and that this would lead to calm in the Arab world and the entire Muslim world. Israeli officials responded that Israel has completely withdrawn from all Lebanese territory in accordance with United Nations Resolution 425. The UN determined that Shaba was Syrian, and it was therefore not included in Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. They also said that Lebanon must fulfill its obligation to disarm Hezbollah under UN Resolution 1559 before making more demands of Israel. Lebanon and Syria are currently holding wide-ranging talks on their relationship, and Siniora said that Lebanon is working with Syria and the UN on redrawing the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Lebanon is also requesting military equipment from the UK as part of a reform of its army. Israeli sources do not expect Britain to accede to this request until the situation in Lebanon changes significantly.

A logical imperative
TODAY'S COLUMNIST
By Farid Ghadry -May 10, 2006
Emboldened by the actions of its long-time strategic ally Iran, the Ba'athist regime in Damascus is thumbing its nose at the international community and has amply demonstrated its shrewd willingness to leverage regional terror for the purposes of weakening both democratic and U.S. interests in the Middle East.
In the past, the Assad regime had attempted to play a complex game of geopolitical kabuki theater and feigning of moral indignation, proclaiming its innocence to anyone who would listen. But it has done more than its share to bankrupt whatever reserves of trust may have existed between it and the international community by openly giving sanctuary and support to the radical terror group Hamas in Damascus; facilitating and arming militant Hezbollah, and allowing senior Iraqi former regime elements to become comfortably ensconced in ritzy Damascus suburbs to provide logistical and operational support to jihadists in Iraq like the Abu-Ghadiyah network. It is also working in tandem with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force commanders like Ghassan Soleimani and senior Hezbollah terror chief and mastermind Imad Mughniyah on ways of weakening the emerging democracy and killing American soldiers.
The Bush administration can no longer ignore a Syria that is steadily marching toward amplified levels of terror proliferation and attacks against not only U.S. forces in the region but friendly countries like Jordan. What is clear here is that Syria's robust attempts at undermining democratic neighbors and fueling a wider terror war by proxy is that the Ba'ath have underwritten their very survival upon the Iranian grand strategy of weakening the U.S. by opening up multiple hostile fronts targeting its interests and democratic emergence.
Many have voiced concerns, some genuine and some illegitimate, against taking active measures in response to the irresponsible and pernicious policies of Bashir Assad. Indeed, a certain level of vacillation and inchoate calls for temperament have hampered the decision-making process of the Bush administration. Although blocking nonexistent U.S.-based assets may send a signal, it is hardly productive. Meanwhile, American enemies abroad grow exponentially bolder; evincing a negative correlation between the will of our enemies and our policy makers' weakness in action.
Regime change in Syria is a de facto necessity because as long as Assad and his surrounding "Saddam clones" are in power, the terror war against the Syrian people, the Lebanese and the Iraqis will only come to expand even further. Iran, Hezbollah and Wahabi terrorists are capable and willing to take the fight against the United States to the furthest reaches of the earth. The Syrian government has clearly indicated that it is ready to enable and further these efforts. As there is no escape for the United States from confronting the terror axis it faces today, there is no denying the logical imperative of regime change in Damascus.
The Syrian opposition, led by the Reform Party of Syria, has proposed to the Syrian opposition and the Bush administration, and continues to do so, a series of solutions in support of empowering the opposition, to institute an executive commission for transitional governance. This 100 percent Syrian-composed body, nurtured before Damascus falls, will represent all the people of Syria, without exception. Such a body will require recognition for international legitimacy.
Once an executive commission becomes a "fact on the ground," the United States must enable safe havens and "no-interference" areas for Ba'athist military forces as a means to encourage and embolden the Syrian people who would otherwise act to remove the Assad family dictatorship but do not out of fear of Ba'athist retribution. Syria's tyrants represent the interests of a miniscule portion of the population and are extremely vulnerable to popular democratic protest. Once the regime falls, the executive commission can and will fill the void.
Some policymakers fear a Hamas-like win in Syria by the Muslim Brotherhood, but they are unrealistically pessimistic. Although more and more women are donning the traditional hijab, often such actions are more symbolic than pious, since head scarves are one of the few forms of protest available to the Syrian people. Moreover, the Muslim Brotherhood cannot control the outcome of a post-Assad government if a truly representative and proportional framework of governance is in place.
The salient issue here is that the Assad regime is corrupt to its core and is doomed to spectacular failure. Any dominant strategy that seeks to prevent chaos and Islamist takeover must support and help build a functioning governance alternative based on pluralism and liberal principles.
Simply put, the lack of action against Syria today is aiding Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, and feeds their proclivity to use violence as a tool of statecraft. The less the U.S. is prone to act decisively, the higher the tendency for further violence and not the other away around. Students of history remember the appeasement failures of Chamberlain against Hitler.
The fall of the Assad dictatorship would strike a mortal blow at Hezbollah and gravely weaken Iran and the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority. Help the Syrian opposition bring down the Assad regime, and you help advance Syria's and America's interests of seeing a democracy flourish in the region and beyond.
Mr. President, we urge you to act.
**Farid Ghadry is president of the Reform Party of Syria.

The Counter-revolution of the Cedars - Part 1
May 11, 2006 Gary C. Gambill - Mideast Monitor
Read Part 2 tomorrow: Lebanon after the Occupation & The Question of Hezbollah
By and large, the sclerotic governing elite of Syrian-occupied Lebanon has managed to survive the withdrawal of Syrian forces. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and President Emile Lahoud remain in their posts, while the premiership has merely passed to Fouad Siniora, a regime stalwart who ran the finance ministry of Syria's satellite state in Beirut twice as long as all others combined. Nearly all of the ministers in the current cabinet either held high-ranking government positions under Syrian rule or are politically subordinate to others who did.
Rather than bringing about the collapse of occupied Lebanon's ruling elite, the Syrian withdrawal merely precipitated a purge of one governing faction by its rivals. The victors are not a reformist wing of the regime, but a powerful clique, led by allies of the late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, responsible for its worst excesses. While they've severed their affiliations with Syria (for the time being) and christened themselves the "March 14 coalition" (referring to the mass anti-Syrian demonstration in Beirut last year), they are intent on preserving the political and socio-economic power they derived from years of service to Damascus.
Not surprisingly, their bid for political hegemony in the new Lebanon has been resisted by the same grassroots nationalist movement that spearheaded challenges to their authority during the occupation - Gen. Michel Aoun's secular nationalist Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). By keeping in place a notorious electoral law drafted by Syrian military intelligence to protect favored incumbents, the Hariri-Jumblatt axis managed to win a majority of the seats in parliamentary elections last year, but the nationalists swept the Christian heartland and gained enough seats to obstruct parliament's election of anyone other than Aoun as president.
This has led to a critical impasse. Leaders of the March 14 coalition are loath to permit the ascension of their nemesis to the presidency. Recognizing that Aoun is overwhelmingly the most popular candidate in both the Christian community (for whom the presidency is constitutionally reserved) and Lebanon as a whole,[1] they are careful not to dismiss his candidacy publicly. Behind the scenes, however, they are feverishly working to thwart Aoun's presidential bid and appealing for the intervention of outsiders, including Syrian President Bashar Assad (who they believe is able and willing to force Lahoud's resignation for the right price). Even if they find a "regional solution," however, circumventing Aoun's ascension at a time when public demands for sweeping reform are at a peak would likely destabilize the country, particularly if it is brought about through foreign intervention.
In the meantime, the Hariri-Jumblatt coalition's refusal to share power with the FPM has saddled the government with a weak, discredited president, hindered reform of the security apparatus, and precluded serious negotiations over the status of Hezbollah's arms. More ominously, its drive to monopolize power is polarizing Lebanon along sectarian lines, with most Sunnis and Druze supporting the government, and most Christians and Shiites (the politically and economically disenfranchised of occupied Lebanon) uniting against it. As Sunni-Shiite antagonism engulfs Iraq in violence and stokes Iranian-Arab tensions, Lebanon's political paralysis and disunity virtually ensures that it will eventually pay the forfeit.
Functional Authoritarianism in Lebanon
"Verily the lust for comfort murders the passion of the soul, and then walks grinning in the funeral."[2]
Lebanese poet Khalil Gibran, 1923
In 1992, two years after Syrian air and ground forces crushed Lebanese army troops under Aoun's command and swept away the last remnants of Lebanon's First Republic, the country was teetering on the brink of collapse. Inflation was running at 130% and rioting in Beirut had brought down two governments in just five months. The root cause of Lebanon's malaise was the fact that no one had any confidence that the motley assortment of ex-warlords entrusted to govern by the Syrians were up to the task of rebuilding a country they had so recently destroyed.
Hariri, the son of a poor Lebanese greengrocer who made a fortune in Saudi Arabia during the oil boom, had been quietly lobbying Damascus to be prime minister for some time. The billionaire construction tycoon not only had the reputation and international connections needed to boost investor confidence in Lebanon, but his Saudi benefactors were willing to sweeten the deal with considerable financial aid. The Syrians were wary, however, as Hariri's wealth and close personal relations with the Saudi royal family would make him harder to push around. Reeling from a cutoff of Soviet aid and increasingly desperate to jumpstart the war-shattered economy of his new satellite state, the late Syrian President Hafez Assad finally relented, and Hariri took office in October 1992.
The system of governance that evolved under Hariri has been called "functional authoritarianism,"[3] as it is largely devoid of any overarching ideological vision. While Hariri frequently talked of making Lebanon the "Singapore of the Middle East," his administration's frenzied reconstruction drive and runaway deficit spending were driven less by economic philosophy than by the imperative of extracting the greatest possible amount of graft. Hariri's defenders are quick to point out (correctly) that rampant embezzlement of public funds was already the order of the day in Lebanon, and that the prime minister was an outsider (having lived in Saudi Arabia for nearly three decades and assumed citizenship there) entering a political arena in which everyone from the Syrians on down expected to be paid for their political support. However, the scale and complexity of institutionalized corruption that arose during Hariri's tenure far exceeded anything that existed before. A 2001 UN-commissioned corruption assessment report estimated that Lebanon had been losing $1.5 billion in graft annually (nearly 10% of the its yearly GDP).[4]
There were three centreal mechanisms of extraction. The first operated through government borrowing. In just six years, Lebanon's national debt soared from $2.5 billion to $18.3 billion (and has since swelled to $38 billion public debt, or 183 percent of GDP, the highest such ratio in the world), most of it financed by issuing treasury bonds to select Lebanese banks at exorbitant real interest rates (as high as 42% at one point).[5] As Guilain Denoeux and Robert Springborg observed in their authoritative assessment of Lebanon's reconstruction boom, "the single largest owner of Lebanese bank stocks is the prime minister," making him "a primary beneficiary" of his own government's rising indebtedness.[6] Since the Syrians and many of their Lebanese allies were also heavily invested in Lebanon's banking sector, there were few objections to the frightening pace of Hariri's deficit spending.
The second form of extraction took place through government expenditures. Only 2.4% of $6 billion worth of reconstruction and development projects examined in above mentioned corruption assessment report were formally awarded by the Administration of Tenders.[7] Consequently, the government habitually overpaid for construction contracts by a large margin (over 30% by most estimates) and misdirected funds to redundant and inefficient uses.[8] Little reconstruction funding was spent outside the capital or outside of the construction and service sectors, in part because far less graft can be extracted from importing tractors or expanding public transportation.
The third level of extraction involved favored treatment of private sector companies in which Hariri and other elites were heavily invested (or from which they received hefty bribes). Solidere, a real estate development company in which Hariri owned a major share, was awarded an exclusive contract to rebuild the central district of Beirut (and the power to expropriate property at will). Hariri granted an exclusive monopoly over the wireless phone market to two companies in which his allies and other Syrian-backed politicians owned major shares, allowing them to charge exorbitant fees and reap windfall profits.[9] Lack of government transparency and reliable contract enforcement ensured that private sector investors (whether Lebanese or foreign) only entered a market if they had cut deals with governing elites. Consequently, almost none of the estimated $40 billion in expatriate Lebanese capital assets flowed back into Lebanon.
Although corruption was endemic in Lebanon long before Syrian troops marched in, the supercharged scale of profiteering in occupied Lebanon during the 1990s was sustainable only under the shadow of Syrian power. Economically, Harirism was almost perfectly convergent with Syrian interests. The unregulated flow of roughly one million unskilled Syrian workers into Lebanon during the 1990s was devastating to the predominantly Shiite urban poor, but it suited Lebanese construction tycoons just fine and drew billions of dollars annually into the cash-strapped Syrian economy. Hariri's conspicuous neglect of agriculture was a boon to Syrian farmers (and smugglers) who flooded Lebanon with untaxed produce. He distributed exorbitant payoffs to the panoply of Syrian officials who administered Lebanon, most notably Vice-president Abdul Halim Khaddam, Army Chief-of-Staff Hikmat Shihabi, and the head of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, Gen. Ghazi Kanaan. For this, Hariri was given clear (if not always decisive) political preeminence over his rivals. Khaddam famously told a group of ministers pressing for Hariri's resignation that the prime minister was "here to stay until 2010."[10]
Institutionalized corruption shattered hopes of postwar prosperity for most Lebanon. Despite enormous injections of money, economic growth rebounded to 8% in 1994, then quickly tapered off, falling to under 2% in 1998. Income inequality steadily increased,[11] owing to socio-economic policies that privileged the postwar commercial elite. At a time when a quarter of the population continued to live beneath the poverty line, the prime minister cut income and corporate taxes to a flat 10%, while raising indirect taxes (e.g. gasoline) on the public at large, slashing social expenditures, and freezing public sector wages.
Hariri's policies necessitated steadily more repressive measures to maintain. When Lebanon's historically vibrant labor movement rose in opposition, the prime minister banned public demonstrations and manipulated elections of the national trade union federation. Under the guise of "regulating" the audiovisual media, he placed control of all major television and radio stations in the hands of corrupt elites. Hariri's draconian restrictions on civil liberties forced him to rely heavily on the military and its commander, Gen. Emile Lahoud, to maintain public order, unwittingly strengthening a rival power center. More importantly, the clampdown contributed to the growth of a powerful nationalist opposition current.
The Aoun Phenomenon
Although Lebanon's secular nationalist revival was fueled by socio-economic and political conditions, its coalescence around Aoun reflected a deep reserve of personal admiration dating back to his brief but monumental appearance on the public stage. After serving as army chief-of-staff for four years, in 1988 Aoun was appointed interim prime minister by outgoing President Amine Gemayel after warring militias prevented parliament from convening to elect a new president.[12] When Aoun attempted to enforce a maritime blockade of illegal militia-run ports in the spring of 1989, Syrian forces retaliated by relentlessly shelling civilian areas of east Beirut, prompting him to declare a "war of liberation" against Syrian forces in Lebanon. Although he incurred the united hostility of Lebanon's militia elite and traditional political class, Aoun's crusade appealed to the public, drawing hundreds of thousands of people to the presidential palace in December 1989 to form a "human shield" against Syrian military forces encircling the free enclave. Thousands of Shiites and Sunnis crossed over from Syrian-controlled territory to participate in what were then the largest mass demonstrations in Lebanese history.
The political elite in Lebanon cynically dismissed the "Aoun phenomenon" as a fleeting outburst of popular frustration by a population desperate for a hero. "He was a David to an infinite Goliath," recalls former Foreign Minister Elie A. Salem, "and this image was well received by all the non-sophisticated in Lebanon, irrespective of religion and locale."[13] Aoun's modest background, barely disguised contempt for corrupt politicians and militia leaders, and honesty also struck powerful chords in Lebanon.
Syria's defeat of Aoun's forces in 1990 failed to extinguish the nationalist current. From exile, Aoun continued denouncing the occupation and worked to mobilize the Diaspora. Inside Lebanon, the movement went underground, perceptible mainly in the widely recognized "Aoun honk" echoing through traffic in Christian areas whenever Syrian forces were out of earshot. Over the next decade, this latent current of popular admiration for the general transormed into to a broad-based, highly organized nationalist opposition front that would decisively undermine Syria's grip on Lebanon.
Hariri unwittingly strengthened the Lebanese nationalist current by decimating two alternate poles of secular opposition - the labor movement and the Lebanese Forces (LF), a Christian nationalist militia-turned-political party led by Samir Geagea. The arrest of Geagea in 1994 (on charges of masterminding the bombing of a church) enabled the Syrians to pressure other LF leaders into quiescence by dangling the prospect of a pardon for the next eleven years. Aoun's absence from the country and strict adherence to nonviolence (after leaving government) protected the movement from the fate that befell the LF.
By the 1995, a multitude of voices identifying themselves with the exiled former general began dominating elections for independent trade and labor unions, professional syndicates, and student councils. Because anyone could be an Aounist, Aounism became a catch all banner for secular nationalism that transcended sectarian boundaries, as illustrated by the triumph of "Aounist" candidates in the 1995 student elections at the predominantly Muslim West Beirut branch of the American University of Beirut (AUB). Aoun ranked third among Shiite respondents asked to name their most preferred Lebanese leader in an open-ended 1996 AUB survey.[14]
The growth of Aounism as a national political force substantially influenced Assad's choice of Gen. Lahoud to succeed Elias Hrawi as president in 1998 and promote him as a counterweight to Hariri (who was forced to resign for two years). Whereas Hariri built a strong base of support within Lebanon's postwar commercial elite and his own Sunni community, Lahoud presented himself as an anti-corruption crusader and guardian of Christian communal interests, hoping to capitalize on widespread resentment of Hariri and draw support away from Aoun. Assad replaced the heads of Lebanon's military and security establishment with officers close to Lahoud. This core military-security elite aligned itself with traditional Sunni politicians sidelined by Hariri's rise, ex-warlords, and pro-Syrian ideologues.
Although Lahoud and his new prime minister, Selim al-Hoss, lambasted Haririst economic policies, they made only marginal adjustments (e.g. taxation rates) to the economic edifice of Syrian-occupied Lebanon. The new administration launched an anti-corruption drive that indicted nine senior Haririst officials,[15] but was later forced to drop the charges - the Syrians wanted a balance of power they could manipulate, not a full-blown assault on the Harirists. Hariri was reinstated in 2000 after Bashar consolidated power, but his authority was thereafter strictly curtailed (and his allies were cut out of the lucrative cell phone business). Lahoud, not Hariri, was now first among equals in Syrian eyes.
While Lahoud served as an effective counterweight to Hariri for the time being, efforts to build Christian support for the president ran into problems. The key to the strategy was brokering an accord between Lahoud and mainstream Christian political elites who had been excluded from government. In order to bolster Lahoud's credibility and provide political cover for Christian elites to cut a deal, the Syrians took steps to reduce the public visibility of their military presence and exert control vicariously through the Lebanese security establishment. By 1999, few Lebanese still had to suffer the indignity of driving through a Syrian checkpoint on their way to work.
Aounist activists in Lebanon, now formally organized as the Free Patriotic Movement (Al-Tayyar al-Watani al-Hurr), responded with a campaign of peaceful sit-ins and demonstrations against the occupation on college campuses, often leading to heavy-handed responses by the security forces. Photos of flag-waving 18-year-olds being water-hosed or beaten by riot police in the morning newspapers thrust the reality of Syrian occupation squarely back into the public mindset.
Lahoud's handling of the protests played straight into Aoun's hands. When the FPM announced in March 2001 that Aoun was returning to Lebanon in 72 hours to lead a peaceful march on Syrian military positions, Lebanese and Syrian officials panicked. Residents of Beirut awoke to find Lebanese tanks positioned at major intersections of the city, military cordons around major universities, and traffic along major thoroughfares at a standstill as police stopped cars to check identity cards and search trunks. Aoun never showed up, of course, and the thousands of students who answered his call were quickly dispersed, but the spectacle was a monumental public relations triumph for the FPM. "Aoun wanted his activists to close down Beirut in protest against Syria's domination. The army has done it for him in their stead," one political analyst observed. "What more could Aoun want?"[16]
Aoun's critics complained that he was deliberately provoking the authorities into increasing the level of repression, which peaked in August 2001 with the arrests of hundreds of opposition activists. Realizing that FPM demonstrations were creating an atmosphere inhospitable to their talks with Lahoud and the Syrians, mainstream Christian political elites (loosely organized under the leadership of Maronite Christian Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir as the Qornet Shehwan Gathering) began routinely urging the public not to take part in the protests, but their appeals fell on deaf ears. In fact, the strategy hurt their leverage with Damascus. If the Christian political establishment was unable to bring about an end to frequent anti-Syrian demonstrations, why should the Syrians pay a high price for its support? While Aoun lobbied tirelessly abroad for American sanctions on Syria, playing a major role in building congressional support for the Syria Accountability Act, Sfeir and most Qornet Shehwan members alienated the Christian public by publicly condemning the legislation.
By 2003, Aoun's popularity and the FPM's organizational strength had reached a critical mass. Confident that the movement was capable of defeating pro-Syrian candidates in majority Christian parliamentary districts (barring a blatantly fraudulent tabulation of the votes), FPM officials decided to abandon their long-standing boycott of legislative elections (which had been progressively less effective in 1996 and 2000) and began preparing to mount a nationwide electoral campaign.
The death of aging Baabda-Aley MP Pierre Helou in August 2003 provided the FPM with an opportunity to test its electoral strength for the first time. By-elections in Lebanon are normally a formality - when a sitting MP dies, his next of kin is traditionally allowed to run unopposed. Qornet Shehwan decided not to contest the election, and for good reason - Christian voters in the district are outnumbered by its combined Druze and Shiite electorate, and Helou's son, Henri, had received a "perfect storm" of endorsements from Jumblatt and rival Druze leader Talal Arslan, both leading Shiite parties (the militant Islamist Hezbollah movement and Amal), as well as both Hariri and Lahoud.
To the astonishment of most political analysts, the FPM nominated Hikmat Dib to run for the seat. Expecting Dib to lose by a landslide, the vast majority of mainstream Christian politicians either endorsed Helou or declined to endorse anyone. Thousands of FPM volunteers canvassed the district, however, speaking to local communities about the party's platform and Dib's distinguished record as an advocate of public freedoms. Though Dib narrowly lost the election (with 25,291 votes to Helou's 28,597), he won the overwhelming majority of Christian votes and a sizable minority of Druze and Shiite votes, demonstrating that the FPM had the electoral clout not only to sweep the Christian heartland, but perhaps even to threaten the political establishment in mixed districts from the Shouf to north Lebanon, in the 2005 elections.[17]
The FPM triumph eliminated any serious prospect of an accord between the Maronite political establishment and Damascus. As Lahoud's term drew to a close in 2004, the Syrians desperately tried to entice Qornet Shehwan leaders into endorsing a three-year extension of his term (reportedly dangling the prospect of Sfeir choosing Lahoud's successor in 2007), but there were no takers - the popular backlash instigated by Aoun would have been overwhelming. Lahoud's isolation provided an opening for Hariri, who secretly encouraged American and European pressure on Syria to permit a constitutional presidential succession. In the face of strong Western pressure on Syria, two members of Qornet Shehwan - MP Nayla Mouawad and MP Boutros Harb - declared their candidacies and began meeting with Syrian military intelligence officials. Assad ultimately decided that neither had the clout to stand up to either Hariri or Aoun and went ahead with plans to extend Lahoud's term, precipitating the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.
Although eager to draw upon support from his allies abroad, Hariri never really aspired to lead Lebanon out of Syria's orbit, only to gain political hegemony within it. After 1559, the prime minister spent weeks trying to persuade Assad to let him name two-thirds of the cabinet and would no doubt have returned to the fold if the Syrian president had relented. After leaving office in October, Hariri quietly entered into talks with Qornet Shehwan over the formation of a tripartite electoral alliance (along with Jumblatt) capable of trouncing the Lahoudists in the 2005 elections.
Hariri's assassination in February was apparently intended to shatter this alliance and initially appeared like it might do so. For two weeks, as mostly Christian and Druze protestors demonstrated against the occupation, Hariri's family and political allies remained silent and the Sunni masses stayed at home. Only after it became clear that the West and the Saudis were committed to driving Syria out did the Harirists begin playing a major role. And it was not until Hezbollah mobilized an ill-timed half-million man (mostly Shiite) march in support of Syria on March 8 that they fully committed themselves to the cause, leading to an even larger demonstration against Syria on March 14. After several more weeks of vacillation, Hariri's 35-year-old son, Saad, picked up where his father left off.
Read Part 2 tomorrow
Notes
[1] Asked to name their favored presidential candidate in a recent poll by the Beirut Center for Research and Information, Lebanese Christians responded as follows: Michel Aoun (46.6%), Nassib Lahoud (12.1%), Boutros Harb (12.1%), Samir Geagea (4.4%), Suleiman Frangieh (2.9%), Chibli Mallat (2.9%), Riad Salameh (1.4%), no favorite (12.6%), others (7.1%). Al-Safir (Beirut), 2 March 2006. No polling data is available on Aoun's support among Shiites, but anecdotal evidence suggests that it is even more overwhelming. Together, Christians and Shiites comprise 70% of the population as a whole.
[2] Kahlil Gibran, The Prophet (New York: Knopf, 1951).
[3] Volker Perthes, Myths and Money: Years of Hariri and Lebanon's Preparation for a New Middle East, Middle East Report, No. 203, Spring 1997.
[4] The report was researched by a private company, Information International, and commissioned by the United Nations Center for International Crime Prevention. See "Lebanon loses 1.5 billion dollars annually to corruption: UN," Agence France Presse, 23 January 2001; The Daily Star (Beirut), 27 January 2001.
[5] "Official: Lebanese banks profiting from debt," The Daily Star, 3 April 2006.
[6] Guilain Denoeux and Robert Springborg, "Hariri's Lebanon: Singapore of the Middle East or Sanaa of the Levant?" Middle East Policy, Vol. 6, No. 2, October 1998.
[7] Over 43 percent of companies surveyed in the report acknowledged that they "always or very frequently" pay bribes. Some 40 percent said that they "sometimes" do. See "Lebanon loses 1.5 billion dollars annually to corruption: UN," Agence France Presse, 23 January 2001; The Daily Star (Beirut), 27 January 2001.
[8] Hariri spent over $2 billion, for example, in the early 1990s on a plan to boost the country's power capacity from 800-1,000 megawatts to over 2,000 megawatts by rehabilitating or constructing ten power plants and their accompanying grids. Not only was much of the money - over $500 million according to one former minister - siphoned off in the process, but rampant profiteering directed the remainder to redundant or ill-conceived projects. A decade later, the Lebanese government was struggling to produce 1,400 megawatts of electricity and rolling blackouts continue to plague the capital in summer months. "Amid spectre of New York blackout, Lebanon fears plunge into darkness," Agence France Presse, 15 August 2003.
[9] Ali and Nizar Dalloul, two sons of a former Lebanese defense minister, owned 86 percent of LibanCell. Najib Miqati, a close friend of Bashar Assad who served as Lebanon's prime minister between April and June 2005, owned 30 percent of Cellis. The rate in Lebanon was 13 cents a minute, compared to 3-8 cents in other Arab countries. The Daily Star, Aug. 17, 2002.
[10] See "Lebanon without Hariri--who holds the lock and key?" Mideast Mirror, 1 December 1998.
[11] Although there are few reliable statistics on this, according to the World Bank "income inequality is generally believed to have increased" during the 1990s. Lebanon: Country Brief, World Bank, September 2005.
[12] "There can be no doubt about the constitutionality of this government. Article 53 states that the president appoints the ministers, 'one of whom he chooses as prime minister'. The premier does not have to resign; the president can dismiss him and appoint a new prime minister. Moreover, the Aoun government kept the rules of the National Pact. If the presidency is vacant, the cabinet is the sole executive . . . There was a precedent for this: in 1952, President Beshara al-Khoury appointed the commander of the army, Fouad Chehab, who was a Maronite, Prime Minister of an interim government." See Theodor Hanf, Coexistence in Wartime Lebanon: Decline of a State and Rise of a Nation (London: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 1993), pp. 570-571.
[13] Elie A. Salem, Violence and Diplomacy in Lebanon (London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1995), p. 272.
[14] See Judith Palmer Harik, "Between Islam and the System: Popular Support for Lebanon's Hizballah," The Journal of Conflict Resolution (Vol. 40, No. 1), March 1996, p. 52.
[15] For example, former Oil Minister Shahe Barsoumian was jailed on charges of embezzling some $800 million through the secret re-export of crude oil. Others were indicted in connection with corruption schemes of similar magnitude at the Council for Development and Reconstruction, the Environment Ministry, the Beirut port, the National Bureau of Medicine, the Independent Municipal Fund, the Directorate-General of Antiquities, the Ministry of Transportation, and the Ministry of Electricity and Water resources.
[16] Al-Nahar (Beirut), 15 March 2001.
[17] See FNC Triumphs in Baabda-Aley, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, August-September 2003.