LCCC ENGLISH
DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 16/07
Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 17,20-25. Asked by the
Pharisees when the kingdom of God would come, he said in reply, "The coming of
the kingdom of God cannot be observed, and no one will announce, 'Look, here it
is,' or, 'There it is.' For behold, the kingdom of God is among you." Then he
said to his disciples, "The days will come when you will long to see one of the
days of the Son of Man, but you will not see it. There will be those who will
say to you, 'Look, there he is,' (or) 'Look, here he is.' Do not go off, do not
run in pursuit. For just as lightning flashes and lights up the sky from one
side to the other, so will the Son of Man be (in his day). But first he must
suffer greatly and be rejected by this generation.
Releases.
Reports & Opinions
Lebanon's Civil Groups In Crisis. By: Abdullah
Iskandar. November 15/07
A compromise president for Lebanon. By
Joseph A. Kechichian. Gulf News.November 15/07
Can a sudden dose of activity help break up
Lebanon's logjam?
The Daily
Star.November 15/07
Latest
News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for November 15/07
Politics & Policies: Lebanon's gamble.Middle
East Times
Sfeir's Presidential Election List under Attack before Birth.Naharnet
Ban in Beirut to Push
Elections in Right Direction-Naharnet
Syria's Baath: Lebanon
Threatened by Split after French Initiative Failed-Naharnet
UN joins Lebanon crisis mediation.BBC News
Hariri Accuses Syria of
Seeking to Destroy French Initiative-Naharnet
Abbas Urges Gaza People to Oust Hamas, Wants
Peace with Israel-Naharnet
Beirut raises fuel
prices to reflect world markets-Daily
Star
Lebanese banks re-elect
leaders by acclamation-Daily Star
Lebanon tense as Sfeir
readies presidential list-Daily Star
Lebanon's envoy to UN
stresses need to follow resolutions, reform Security Council-Daily
Star
UNIFIL chief denies report
of early withdrawal from South-Daily
Star
Ashkenazi laments 'lack of
efficiency' in 2006 war-Daily Star
Constitution vague on last
10 days of presidency-Daily Star
New UNDP representative
presents credentials-Daily Star
'Neighborhood Days' seeks
better EU-Lebanon ties-Daily Star
USAID contracts Lebanese
firm to resume oil-spill clean-up-Daily
Star
Civil-society groups flay
racist remarks on Jarass TV, magazine-Daily
Star
Report highlights abuse of
migrant domestic workers-Daily
Star
Israeli MPs move to block
sharing of Jerusalem.AFP
First female Emirati
receives taxi license.AFP
Constitution vague on last 10 days of presidency
Experts divided over reading of article 73
By Michael Bluhm -Daily Star staff
Thursday, November 15, 2007
BEIRUT: Article 73 of the Constitution instructs legislators how to proceed when
10 days remain in a president's term and they have not elected a successor, but
the provision's vagueness only adds to the disputes surrounding the voting, a
number of legal experts told The Daily Star on Wednesday.
Incumbent Emile Lahoud's term expires on November 24. Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri has called for an electoral session on November 21, after the legislature
failed to convene for two ballots slated for September 25 and October 23.
Article 73 says that if the speaker has not summoned Parliament for a vote, "the
Chamber meets of its own accord on the 10th day preceding the expiration of the
president's term of office."
With the March 14 ruling coalition unable to agree with the March 8 opposition
on a consensus candidate, one reading of this paragraph would allow a simple
majority of March 14 deputies to get together at any time after Wednesday and
ratify anyone they choose, said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East
Center.
"The text could support the interpretation that deputies can meet tonight
without a call from the speaker," Salem said.
Despite the inability to find a consensus president, March 14 deputies are
unlikely to abandon months of negotiations and vigorous international prodding
and ramrod their favorite through, said legal expert Ziyad Baroud.
"This is my opinion: It was sort of an understanding between the majority and
Speaker Berri to postpone the session until the 21st," he said. "Otherwise, they
should have met on [Wednesday]. The speaker has effectively summoned the chamber
to meet."
Thanks to Berri's invitation, the conditions in Article 73 allowing MPs to
gather on their own have not been fulfilled, Baroud added. However, whether
Parliament meets on November 21 or deputies convene before or after that, the
thorniest legal issue in the election remains: the quorum. The Hizbullah-led
opposition has stood firm that it will not accept a president elected by a
simple majority of deputies, relying on the provision of Article 49 that
mandates a qualified majority of the votes of two-thirds of deputies for a
president to be elected in a first round of voting.
The opposition - supported by many legal opinions - maintains that this
requirement means two-thirds of deputies must attend any electoral session for
its results to stand.
The Western-backed March 14 Forces, meanwhile, have long pointed out that
Article 49 allows election of a president by simple majority in a second round
of voting. Since Wednesday they can also add the argument that Article 73 -
which does not mention any requirement for a quorum - has supplanted Article 49.
Interpretations of Article 73's affect on the quorum issue covered the full
range of responses, from the paragraph having no effect to changing the
requirement completely - in short, the feuding political camps can read the
paragraph in any way suiting their needs.
Ghaleb Mahmassani, a lawyer close to the Future Movement of parliamentary
majority leader Saad Hariri, said the application of Article 73 did not alter
the requirement for a quorum. Because Article 49, however, does not stipulate
any requirements for a quorum, only for a number of votes, the lack of clarity
on the question of quorum persists, he added.
"The strain of uncertainty exists before the 10 days," he said. "It is clear
that the last 10 days does not change anything regarding the requirements of
parliamentary majority."The sparse language of Article 79 provides latitude for deputies on both sides
of the political divide to claim it supports their positions, Baroud said.
"There is room for very diverse interpretation," he said.
He advocated amending the Constitution to resolve these technical matters
explicitly.
"We have all these problems in reading every article of the Constitution,"
Baroud said. "This is making things very difficult for Lebanese institutions to
work properly."
Simply, Article 73 does not give black-and-white directions for what MPs should
do in these circumstances, Salem said.
"It is gray," he said. "The clause being a bit gray does leave a bit of wiggle
room. It is not an iron-clad clause."On the other hand, Article 73 can be read to allow for the election of a
president in these 10 days with only a simple majority of deputies present, said
Shafik Masri, professor of international law at the American University of
Beirut and Lebanese American University.
The framers of the Constitution penned Article 73 with the goal of preventing a
vacuum in the office of the president, and any interpretation of the provision
should take this rationale into account, he said
"It simply says, in the last 10 days preceding the termination of the
presidential term, the Parliament should be convened by the force of law," he
said. "Why does the article speak of a force-of-law meeting? Why is there this
provision for the last 10 days?
"Article 73 was put in to avoid any gap. The important thing is the election and
not the quorum. Here there is an exceptional case. We can't give up the
condition of election, but we must be flexible with the issue of the quorum. In
order to satisfy the main rationale - continuity - you have to be satisfied with
the election by more than half."With Article 73 open to such a multitude of possible readings, it remains
impossible to predict how parliamentary deputies will interpret the clause and
what steps they will take in these last days before November 24, Baroud said.
"Nothing is predictable in Lebanon," he added.
Sfeir's Presidential Election
List under Attack before Onset
As conflicting reports over whether a list of presidential candidates has been
handed in by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir to the French envoy or not, it
appeared that the list had come under attack before it was even born. While
Christian opposition leader Gen. Michel Aoun rejected the "idea" to include his
name in Sfeir's list, President Emile Lahoud deemed "unconstitutional" any list.
Aoun told his OTV news channel that he is against the "idea of including my name
along names without popular standing and that have not succeeded in
parliamentary elections and don't have a complete vision for a settlement to the
crisis."
Lahoud, in turn, threatened that the list will not go through. "Everything that
has been said about imposing an alternative calling for accepting a list of
presidential names or elections by a half-plus-one (vote) or that the
unconstitutional government will stay is unconstitutional talk and will not
pass," Lahoud warned.
There were conflicting reports on whether or not Sfeir's list had actually been
completed or whether the cardinal did hand it in to French envoy Jean-Claude
Cousseran.
The daily An Nahar said Sfeir had demanded that the list be shrouded in secrecy.
Cousseran, following up France's efforts to achieve a breakthrough in Lebanon's
presidential crisis, on Wednesday met with Sfeir, parliamentary majority leader
Saad Hariri as well as with Speaker Nabih Berri. Cousseran did not make any
statements after his meetings. The French envoy was continuing efforts started
by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who left Lebanon Tuesday night, but
vowed to return soon. Kouchner announced before departure that Sfeir had agreed
to draft a list of presidential candidates from which the feuding sides would
select the man for the top job. Also Wednesday, Lebanese Forces leader Samir
Geagea, Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad, and Justice Minister Charles Rizk
visited Sfeir. Geagea announced that Sfeir had not yet completed the list. "We
discussed the French initiative and are working on turning it into a success,"
Geagea said. Beirut, 15 Nov 07, 08:46
Initiative Failed
The daily Al-Baath, mouthpiece of Syria's ruling Baath Party, said that the
French initiative has failed after it reached a dead end and warned that Lebanon
is "threatened by split and chaos if presidential elections did not pass
peacefully." Al Baath: "… The last week of the Lebanese presidential election
will not leave room for any optimism that Lebanon would succeed in getting out
of the bottle neck after all mediation efforts hit a dead end," including that
of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. It said that "like all previous
Arab and foreign efforts, the French initiative was hit by a stubborn stance
from the March 14 group which is determined to block the road in the face of any
consensus president."Arab League chief Amr Moussa arrived in Damascus on
Wednesday on a two-day visit where he will meet Syrian President Bashar Assad,
his Vice President Farouk Sharaa and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem. Moussa said
the Lebanese presidential election and the Annapolis conference in the U.S. are
the main topics on his agenda. Syria's deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Meqdad,
meanwhile, said Lebanon was "going through a delicate phase," adding that
Damascus supports any initiative that would settle the presidential election
crisis. Beirut, 15 Nov 07, 11:12
Beirut raises fuel prices to reflect world markets
'The rates will not return to the old levels'
By Osama Habib -Daily Star staff
Thursday, November 15, 2007
BEIRUT: Prices of gasoline in Lebanon rose slightly on Wednesday amid growing
concern that any future war in the region will push prices even higher. Gas
stations across the country changed the prices of gasoline and gas oil early in
the morning after the Ministry of Energy and Water presented a new price list
for all fuel products in the country.
According to the new list, the price of 20 liters of 98 octane rose by LL600 to
LL24,300 while the 95 octane jumped by LL700 to LL23,500.
"The government decided that it can't afford to subsidize the prices of oil and
kerosene and for this reason it has allowed the market to determine the rates of
these commodities," said Bahij Abu Hamzeh, president of the association of oil
importing companie.
Acting Minister of Energy and Water Mohammad Safadi told The Daily Star earlier
that the government will not intervene in any way in the pricing of oil and gas.
He added that the government has virtually lost all sources of revenues from oil
taxes after world prices reached alarming levels.
Less than three year ago the government collected LL14,000 from each 20 liters
but now it hardly makes LL2,000.
"There is no formula for the price increases in Lebanon since it all depends on
supply and demand," Abu Hamzeh said.
He added that the prices of all oil products are at the mercy of international
markets.
"On some occasions, we notice that the prices of gas oil and kerosene exceed the
prices of gasoline and in other instances the picture is different," Abu Hamzeh
said.
He claimed that oil importing companies do not make any additional profits if
the prices in the international markets surge to quickly.
Abu Hazmeh said that the new prices of gasoline in Lebanon are based on the
international rates four weeks ago.
"We expect the prices to stay the same or even go higher in the future but one
thing for sure the rates will not return to the old levels," he said.
The president of Consumer Lebanon, Zuhair Berro, said that he was not surprised
by the rise in oil prices.
"It is only natural to see the prices of gasoline and kerosene jump to these
levels as the international markets determines the final rate at the end," Berro
said.
Berro admitted that the new prices will affect consumers to some extent but he
rejected any suggestion to subsidize the prices by the government.
"This is a free market economy and the state has no right to subsidize
anything," he said.
In the face of higher fuel prioces, General Labor Confederation chief Ghassan
Ghosn repeated his call to raise the minimum monthly wage from LL300,000 to
LL950,000.
"I am not asking the government to subsidize the prices because it will only
help the oil cartels in Lebanon. However, the government can alleviate the
misery of the citizens by increasing the minimum wage," Ghosn said.
He added that this is the worst government Lebanon has ever had because it has
totally ignored the interests of the working class.
"Why can't Prime Minister Fouad Siniora leave the Grand Serail and travel to the
rich Arab oil countries and ask the government to supply Lebanon with crude oil
at favorable rates?" he asked.
He added that the prices of some commodities have jumped by more than 40 percent
and with the new increase in the price of gasoline the merchants and farmers
will surely take advantage of the situation and hike their prices.
"I can't wait until Siniora packs his stuff and leave the office," he said.
"Maybe we will have a new government that listens to the working class."
Lebanese banks re-elect leaders by acclamation
Daily Star staff -Thursday, November 15, 2007
BEIRUT: The Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) on Wednesday renewed the terms
of president Francois Bassil and board members after a rival group decided to
withdraw from the elections in order to preserve the unity of the sector. After
a general assembly meeting at the ABL's headquarters, the banks re-elected
Bassil as president of the association.
The other board members are Nadim Kassir, Saad Azhari, Abdel al-Razek Ashour,
Antoine Sehnawi, Mohammad Hariri, Salim Sfeir, Marwan Kheireldin, Tanal Sabbah,
Joseph Torbey, Raymond Audi and Farid Rouphael.
The general assembly also reviewed and approved the ABL's 2007-2008 budget.
In addition, the assembly discussed collective contracts with the banks'
employees.
Bassil said that Lebanese banks maintained steady growth in assets and customer
deposits in 2007 despite the situation in the country.
He underlined the need to elect a new president for the republic to resolve
Lebanon's political woes. - The Daily Star
Lebanon tense as Sfeir readies presidential list
Cousseran presses French initiative to help rival parties reach consensus
By Rym Ghazal -Daily Star staff
Thursday, November 15, 2007
BEIRUT: French envoy Jean-Claude Cousseran met with senior political leaders in
Beirut on Wednesday, continuing his government's efforts to broker a deal on a
consensus president to replace the outgoing Emile Lahoud as Lebanese awaited a
list of candidates to be released by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir.
Cousseran was continuing efforts started by French Foreign Minister Bernard
Kouchner, who left Lebanon Tuesday night following his fifth trip to Beirut in
recent months.
Cousseran met Sfeir for 20 minutes, after which he met with the head of the
parliamentary majority, MP Saad Hariri, as well as Speaker Nabih Berri and a
Hizbullah delegation. The French envoy did not make any statements to the media
after his meetings.
Before he left, Kouchner told the media that Sfeir had agreed to draft a list of
presidential nominees from which rival camps would select a consensus figure.
The list is expected to be submitted to Berri and Hariri, who would then select
two or three names to be proposed at a November 21 Parliament session.
Local newspapers speculated Wednesday about the names of the candidates that
Sfeir would include. The pro-government An-Nahar daily reported that the list
includes two March 14 figures - former MP Nassib Lahoud and MP Butros Harb - and
MP Michel Aoun, who heads the opposition Free Patriotic Movement.
The Central News Agency quoted sources close to Bkirki on Wednesday as saying
that Sfeir had expanded the list to nine candidates.
The prelate reportedly resisted drawing up a list of names for fear of being
seen as biased toward a particular party within the Christian community until
Kouchner told him that there was no way that Parliament's doors would open for
elections without Bkirki taking such a step.
As Sfeir was adding the final touches to the list, he was visited by Lebanese
Forces (LF) boss Samir Geagea, Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad, and
Justice Minister Charles Rizk: all Maronites, all members of March 14 and all
potential candidates for the presidency - but none regarded as viable .
Geagea told reporters after the meeting that Sfeir had not yet completed the
list.
"We discussed the French initiative and are working on turning it into a
success," said the LF leader.
Geagea also asserted that recent statements by the opposition, particularly the
last speech made by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, reduced "the
chances of consensus to less than 10 percent."
Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is due to arrive in Lebanon on
Thursday at 5 p.m.
The Italian and Spanish foreign ministers, as well as Arab League Secretary
General Amr Moussa, are also expected in Lebanon during the week to bolster the
French-sponsored plan. Parliament is scheduled to elect a president on November
21 but the political deadlock has delayed the vote three times, leading France
to intensify its efforts to nudge the disputed leaders toward agreeing on a
candidate.
The pro-opposition Al-Akhbar newspaper said there were fears that "if the French
initiative fails, the ruling majority may elect a new president with a simple
majority."
The opposition has repeatedly warned that it would not accept or recognize a
president elected by a simple majority, in violation of the Constitution,
triggering fears that two parallel governments might be formed.
In related news, Saudi Ambassador Abdel-Aziz Khoja visited March 14 MPs holed up
at the sumptuous Phoenicia Inter-Continental Hotel in Beirut Tuesday night.
Khoja stressed the importance of holding the presidential election "within the
constitutional framework" as he thanked the MPs for their determination and
"sacrifices in the name of democracy."
Egyptian Ambassador Ahmad Bidyawi visited Aoun on Wednesday, telling reporters
afterward that his country"supports any candidate agreed upon by the Lebanese."
"It is critical to avoid a vacuum or two governments," Bidyawi added.
US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman conducted his own rounds of meetings on Wednesday,
paying visits to both Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora without making any
statements to the media.
In an interview with LBC, UN envoy Geir Pedersen said Ban's mission to Lebanon
is focused on "facilitating the presidential elections."
"We will do what we can to push the elections in the right direction," said
Pedersen.
Ban will meet officials from Hizbullah and other parties, but the main focus
will be Sfeir and Christian leaders.
"We need a president before November 24," added Pedersen.
A compromise president for Lebanon
By Joseph A. Kechichian, Special to Gulf News
Published: November 14, 2007, 23:27
The Lebanese are divided and cannot reach an agreement to elect a new head of
state. Consequently, Beirut will postpone the November 21 scheduled vote in
parliament, probably because opposition deputies will not ensure a two-thirds
majority.
After a brief lull, when everyone accepted compromise candidates and spoke with
relative optimism, the name-calling has picked up pace. With the hapless
Lebanese, one wonders whether this is the end of the Lebanon we all know - a
genuine Arab democracy despite its many weaknesses -or, on the contrary, an
example of last minute deal-making?
To say that Lebanon is going through a dangerous time would indeed be an
understatement. In fact, outsiders, led by France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the
United States on one side, and Syria and Iran on the other, are positioning
their local forces to guide, even take advantage, of volatile conditions to
reshape the entire region.
High-level foreign interventions - a political traffic jam - are now so frequent
that one needs a ledger to keep track.
No one can give a single inch, since compromise means loss of authority or, at
the very least, the perception of fault. No candidate can honestly offer a
concession, which means that the much talked about, even desired, conciliation
will not occur.
Privilege
At this juncture, it appears that the choice of a President is no longer a
Maronite Christian privilege, especially after the community's powerbroker,
Cardinal Mar Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, has wisely opted not to name his choice.
This ill appreciated step will probably save the process although members of the
majority within the March 14 Movement, and their allies, clamour on the cardinal
to name one or more candidates.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who is shuttling between Beirut and
Paris, was livid a few days ago when Sfeir handed him a blank page without any
names on it. Sfeir is unlikely to change his mind before the 21st although he
might be forced to.
Kouchner's latest visit was a failure, as will his future stops, because the
hour is late for a colonial era imposed outcome. Little will change if Nicolas
Sarkozy disembarks at Rafik Hariri International Airport next week.
Indeed, and let us be frank, not even the United Nations Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon, or League of Arab States Secretary-General Amr Mousa, both of whom will
"hear" a lot over the next few days, will manage to pull a rabbit/president out
of their respective hats. It may be better for all to stay home.
Left to their own wits, the Lebanese may, just may, pull the presidential
elections off. While it is true that agreement on a new presidential candidate
is difficult, few crave to pursue options that will lead to a catastrophic
outcome.
No party desires for Lebanon, which sits on the edge of a delicate balance of
power among seventeen religious communities, to disintegrate.
Moreover, while a tragic possibility for rekindling the civil war also exists,
this is far less likely than many assume, for at least two reasons: One party
does not aspire to fight (and prefers to separate rather than conquer
territory), and two, because Syria will not allow it.
Damascus will intervene militarily - this time with UN support - to end such
bloodshed should it be necessary. Those who pretend to look after Lebanon's
interests would be well advised to protect it from another Syrian intervention
by not allowing events to get that far.
Coexistence
Irrespective of such dangers, the Lebanese are sadly victims of their tested
political co-existence formula, which is preventing the country from becoming a
full-fledged democracy either in a republic or a federal system.
Throughout the past year, no consensus decisions were adopted, especially after
Hezbollah froze key institutions that could have contributed to the country's
socio-economic welfare. Under the circumstances, what are the remaining options,
and is Beirut likely to have a fresh president on the 24th?
The answer is yes if, first, the Aoun candidacy is permanently shelved, for the
simple reason that Michel Aoun is the most divisive candidate in contemporary
memory. Second, if Speaker Nabih Berri finds the courage to abandon his
reticence, and sets Parliament free.
Third, if parliamentary majority leader Sa'ad Hariri - along with several of his
allies - recognises that non-March 14 candidates exist.
Finally, if General Michel Suleiman accepts the fate that befall army commanders
in Lebanon, by assuming full responsibilities without emulating Emile Lahoud's
failed methods. No one can rule Lebanon by ignoring the other and no one can
impose his will on others.
Towards that end, the only institution that can rule effectively is the army,
and chances are excellent that Suleiman will, perhaps over time, address the
country's three major ills - Hezbollah's weapons, ties with Syria, and the
military presence of Palestinians, all security related issues, which require
offsets.
Ironically, a last minute deal is likely to see Suleiman safeguard Lebanese
democracy, and establish mutually satisfying ties with Syria, because the
Lebanese perceive him as a leader who can find diplomatic language with all
sides.
**Dr. Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf
affairs.
Lebanon's Civil Groups In Crisis
Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat - 14/11/07//
The crisis in Lebanon is no longer hidden from anyone. All of the elements of
this crisis have become well-known. It might be boring to once again stress the
point that Lebanon is an open arena for the sending of all regional and
international messages. However, Lebanese civil groups are dealing with this
crisis and the dynamism of its conflicts, which are expanding the complications
and adding elements of crisis to this situation. From and through these
elements, we see foreign intervention as a consequence.
Thus, as soon as the winds of a settlement appear, there are storms of
escalation, doing away with the kind of hope that can only be revived thanks to
monumental efforts. The French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, who has been
delegated by the Arabs and the international community and who expresses an
understanding of Damascus' positions, has been doing something that clashes with
Lebanese civil groups. Some of these groups might enjoy regional cover, but this
cover does not match the aspirations of some; the impact of foreign players and
autonomous initiative are no longer clear.
The clearest expression of the crisis of Lebanese civil groups is the difficulty
of naming a consensus presidential candidate, which is now requested of the
Maronite patriarch. This is a complex crisis: the crisis of state institutions
that can no longer produce a normal constitutional process. At the same time,
there is a crisis of the Christians, and especially the Maronites, who are
unable to unify their ranks and situation; they are unable to conceive of a
future for themselves amid the other groups. The division in their ranks
reflects not only the competition over the high-level post, but also the
inability to imagine a unifying formula for the meaning of their existence. For
some civil leaders, politics has become a group of tactics and alliances, and
not thinking about the meaning of the nation. This concern has reached the
Patriarchate, which is no longer a mere authority on moral and religious values;
it is now being asked to take a direct tactical role, which the civil
leaderships should perform themselves. This explains the contradiction in
hearing declarations of adherence to what Bkirki decides, and opposition to what
is issued by the patriarchal seat.
Aspects of the crisis of the Christians in Lebanon began to appear after the
June 1967 defeat, continuing over subsequent periods. It grew deeper during the
civil war, which ended with what was known as Christian frustration. The
Christians, who consider themselves the reason for the existence of modern
Lebanon, their political leadership, the source of their economic prosperity,
their political and intellectual openness and diversity, have not come to grips
with the meaning of the huge change in the region and the world. They have not
made an effort to adjust to these changes. They suppose that the nation can be
isolated, except from the influences they desire. They find themselves today in
an unsettled situation, even with the new Constitution that takes away many
prerogatives from the president of the Republic, with Lebanon their guarantee.
The developments, however, are greater than the desires. What became Christian
frustration appears to be a source of strength for the Shiites, who, after the
reduction of direct Syrian tutelage, must find a political translation for the
big change within the sect, demographically, economically and politically, with
its regional extension. The role given to them can no longer absorb their new
strength. This is what their leader, the fighter and widely-representative
Hassan Nasrallah, expressed recently. In all of his speeches, the secretary
general of Hizbullah outlines the political and military strength of his group,
and the weak points of the enemy, going so far as to say that what he asks for
is only a translation of this newfound strength. The crisis of the Shiites is in
their inability, until now, to remove this acknowledgment. This rising group
will only see ore shows of strength and ratcheting-up of demands. This leads to
a military response, increasing the fear of other groups of this renaissance and
its aspiration.
This crisis is also in effect for the Sunnis, who are newly-arrived at Lebanese
sovereignty politics. They have obtained what was taken from the Christians.
They are living with the fear of seeing these benefits taken from them, and
these can only be protected by sovereignty, as long as the directly influential
and intertwined in Lebanon is an element of strength for the rising community of
Shiites, who are also a source of intimidation.
However, the Sunni community has been affected by a frustration resulting from
the policy of the West in the region and finds the slogans of sovereignty to be
a part of its political heritage. Indicating the contradiction between these
slogans and the public's aspirations strengthens the confusion in alliance and
living with fundamentalism, which has in turn simultaneously frightened the
Shiites and the Christians.
Efforts to find a solution in Lebanon are a discussion of areas in which there
is little overlap among the various groups, areas that reflect the crisis of
each civil group, and the crisis in relations among these groups themselves