LCCC ENGLISH NEWS BULLETIN
NOVEMBER 27/06

Biblical Reading For today
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 18,33-37. So Pilate went back into the praetorium and summoned Jesus and said to him, "Are you the King of the Jews?" Jesus answered, "Do you say this on your own or have others told you about me?" Pilate answered, "I am not a Jew, am I? Your own nation and the chief priests handed you over to me. What have you done?" Jesus answered, "My kingdom does not belong to this world. If my kingdom did belong to this world, my attendants (would) be fighting to keep me from being handed over to the Jews. But as it is, my kingdom is not here." So Pilate said to him, "Then you are a king?" Jesus answered, "You say I am a king. For this I was born and for this I came into the world, to testify to the truth. Everyone who belongs to the truth listens to my voice."


Free Opinions
Lebanon: ripe for resolution or revolution?By Oussama K. Safa 27.11.06
The Internal Price of the 'Sincere Promise'-By: Elias Harfoush 27.11.06
A Workable Approach to Engaging Syria-By: Peter Harling 27.11.06

A Post-Modernist Square.By: Moustafa Zein 27.11.06

Latest New from miscellaneous sources for November 27/11/06
Berri vows to ignore actions of current Cabinet - adviser -Daily Star
Sfeir urges unity among divided Lebanese Christians-Daily Star
Lebanon: ripe for resolution or revolution?Daily Star
Jordan's King: Mideast Facing 3 Civil Wars, Including Lebanon-Naharnet
Lebanon teeters on brink of repeating past-International Herald Tribune
Jezzine plans to establish state-of-the-art dump-Daiuly Star
Business leaders call off plans for general strike-Daily Star
Report downgrades estimate of direct war losses-Daily Star
Will Fneish's resignation kill reform at the Energy and Water Ministry?Daily Star
Hotels report mass exodus in wake of Gemayel assassination-Daily Star
Peacekeepers Bring Calm to South Lebanon-Washington Post
Russian envoy meets Assad, says tribunal to try suspected Hariri ...International Herald Tribune
Lebanese sectarian tensions mirror Iraq-Gulf Times

Hizbullah, Allies All Set to Carry Out Threatened Street Protests-Naharnet
Hizbullah: Lebanon Faces 'Dark Tunnel' After Cabinet Meeting-Naharnet
Saudi King, Cheney Discuss Trouble Spots Including Lebanon-Naharnet
Iran reportedly smuggling arms to Hezbollah via Syria-Ya Libnan
Syria sends United States bloody signal-Contra Costa Times

Lebanon approves Hariri tribunal-BBC News
Lebanon to press UN court ratification plans-Middle East Times

Report: Hezbollah replenishes half of missile stock with Iran's ...Ha'aretz
Hezbollah plays it safe in wake of political assassination-ABC Online
Erdogan in Lebanon "Soon" to Shore up Support for Saniora-Naharnet

Two Frenchmen expelled from Syria under investigation for ...International Herald Tribune
Showdown time in Lebanon-BBC News
UN: IDF laid mines in Lebanon during summer war-Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah renews threat of mass protests-Pioneer Times-Journal
A fatal blow for peace?Sunday Herald
New priest begins service to Maronite community-Intermountain Catholic
Syria, Israel both have motives-Houston Chronicle - United States
Assad: the man Bush must do business with-Scotsman
US policy makers split on approach to Syria-Boston Globe - United States
Peacekeepers bring calm to south Lebanon despite challenges-International Herald Tribune
Iraq's neighbours to meet in Cairo Dec. 5-Reuters
Regionalizing Iraq-Boston Globe - United States

Syria would seek reward for helping to calm Iraq, some say-International Herald Tribune

Hizbullah, Allies All Set to Carry Out Threatened Street Protests
Naharnet: Hizbullah and Syrian-backed allies on Sunday were all set to carry out their threats of massive street protests to topple Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government, a day after it approved the creation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri murder.
The cabinet also referred the "assassination crime" against Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, scion of Lebanon's most prominent Christian families, to the judicial council, the highest trial court in Lebanon. Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud was quick to consider both cabinet moves as "void." According to a statement released by Baabda Palace, Lahoud said the decisions were made by "an illegal and unconstitutional body."
Hizbullah demands the formation of a national unity government so as to give it a bigger say in the cabinet, or else it will launch mass protests to bring down Saniora. The anti-Syrian government has rejected Hizbullah's demand. The cabinet's approval late Saturday of the creation of a Special International Court for Lebanon defied Hizbullah and its main ally, the Amal movement, which accused the anti-Syrian cabinet of using the issue of the court to block their demands for enough cabinet seats to be able to veto key decisions.
Soon after the cabinet vote for the tribunal set up, Sheikh Hassan Ezzeddine, a senior Hizbullah official, said the cabinet endorsement "now puts the opposition before its options to confront the government." Responding to a question on whether Hizbullah would carry out its threatened demonstrations, Ezzedine said: "The time and the place will be decided." "The government represents part of the Lebanese people, not all of them. Its decisions are void," he told Al-Arabiya television. Meanwhile, the leading daily An Nahar said Sunday that an overnight squabble between an Amal member and another from anti-Syrian MP Saad Hariri's Al Mustaqbal movement in Beirut's Hay al-Lija neighbourhood near Mar Elias's main commercial thoroughfare developed into fist and stick fighting.
Lebanese army troops quickly stepped in to disperse the foes, the paper added. It reported no casualties. An Nahar said the tribunal document will be forwarded to Lahoud for endorsement, and that in case of his rejection, which is widely expected, the government will have to wait until the end of a 15-day constitutional period granted for the president to sign the document to be able to present it to parliament as a bill for final approval.
The tribunal is a key bone of contention in the power struggle between allies and opponents of Syria in Lebanon. Anti-Syrian forces -- mainly Christian and Sunni Muslim -- dominate the government, but are facing a campaign by the mainly Shiite pro-Syrian camp to bring the government down.
The political crisis became potentially explosive this week with the assassination of Gemayel, a Damascus critic, raising worries of more violence that could tear apart the country's fragile sectarian seams.
Hizbullah and Amal had postponed their protest plans ahead of Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, which instead brought hundreds of thousands of government supporters onto the streets in an outpouring of anger against Syria and its local allies. Saniora had offered to put off the contentious cabinet vote for several days if six ministers, including five from Hizbullah and Amal, who quit the government earlier this month return. In the eyes of Hizbullah, the approval of the tribunal amounts to a rejection of its demands for a greater representation in the cabinet. The constitutional wrangling in Lebanon over the ratification process for the proposed international tribunal threatens to pose a thorny problem for the U.N. Security Council.(Naharnet-AP-AFP) (An Nahar photo shows Gemayel's picture placed in front of his seat during the cabinet meeting)
Beirut, 26 Nov 06, 08:29

Sfeir urges unity among divided Lebanese Christians
By Nada Bakri -Daily Star staff
Monday, November 27, 2006
BEIRUT: Lebanon's influential Maronite patriarch warned on Sunday of division within the country's Christian community and difficulties in reuniting it under a common cause. "We are going through miserable days, but we hope they will be followed by happy days in which the Lebanese will reunite - especially the Christians who are divided ... It seems very hard to reunite them," Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said. In comments to his visitors in Bkirki, the prelate urged the Lebanese "to join hands" for the sake of their country. He warned that unless they do so "the situation will be very difficult and we have seen how our leaders are being killed one after the other." Sfeir's comments come days after Pierre Gemayel, a Maronite minister, died along with one of his bodyguards in a shooting ambush in a suburb north of Beirut. The Christians are divided between those who support the government and those allied with the opposition camp. The ruling coalition, or the March 14 Forces, includes two main Christian parties: the Phalange Party, to which Gemayel belonged, and the Lebanese Forces, headed by Samir Geagea.
The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) - headed by MP Michel Aoun - allied with Hizbullah shortly after the party leader's return from a 15-year exile in France. Aoun's supporters claim to make up 75 percent of Christian voters - and that along with Hizbullah and its allies, they represent the majority of Lebanese. Since the summer war with Israel ended, the opposition alliance has been demanding a greater say in Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's Cabinet.
The parliamentary majority, backed by the West, has so far rejected their demands, accusing them of seeking veto power in order to hinder the formation of an international tribunal to prosecute suspects in former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination.
The opposition denies claims that it wants to obstruct the creation of the tribunal. Hizbullah and its allies have threatened street protests to force a change in government. Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan said it is unlikely that Christians will change their positions. "Today there is a big difference in opinion among the Christians and I don't think anyone will change positions easily because it is about major issues like Hizbullah's weapons and the future of Lebanon," Adwan said following a visit to Sfeir on Sunday. "What is more important than uniting the Lebanese is to avoid turning this difference in opinions into street clashes," he added. FPM MP Ibrahim Kanaan said the prelate's statements aimed to reach a common vision for Lebanon's future.
"It is hard to reunite the Christians but it is not impossible. The patriarch was sending Christians a message to encourage them to reach an understanding ... so that their differences do not turn into street clashes," Kanaan told The Daily Star on Sunday.

Lebanon: ripe for resolution or revolution?
By Oussama K. Safa -
Monday, November 27, 2006
Barely had the Lebanese started to recover from the July-August war with Israel when instability came knocking again, in what seems like the beginning of a campaign to intimidate Lebanon and prevent its government from taking serious political decisions.
The assassination of Christian minister and parliamentarian Pierre Gemayel came on the day that the United Nations Security Council was scheduled to approve the final by-laws of a mixed Lebanese-international tribunal to hold accountable the assassins of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Gemayel was one of the young leaders of the anti-Syria March 14 coalition and a key minister in the Siniora government, and his death dealt a strong blow to the slim government majority that is badly needed to ratify the by-laws. It is likely that more assassinations will come to undermine the final phases of the tribunal process.
As the deadline approached to approve the final draft of the tribunal by-laws, attempts to obstruct it multiplied. Prior to Gemayel's assassination, Lebanese politics were already stalemated by a showdown between the governing majority of March 14 and the opposition led by Hizbullah. At stake are critical and decisive issues that will determine the weight of each political actor in the months to come. These include, in addition to the tribunal, expanding the government and giving the opposition a blocking minority vote, presidential elections and early legislative elections.
The passing of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 last August provided a useful framework to deal with security issues in South Lebanon. Three months later, the front there seems to have quieted down; a fait accompli of stability appears to be emerging, one that could be jeopardized only by Israel's continued violations of the provisions of the UN resolution. Hizbullah's attention is now focused on internal Lebanese politics, particularly on finding ways to force an increase in its share in government and protect its political gains.
As the government drew closer to voting on the draft by-laws of the tribunal, five Shiite ministers and a sixth minister close to President Emile Lahoud walked out in an effort to strip the government of its legitimacy ahead of a special session to approve the final draft of the by-laws. While it was widely believed that Hizbullah and its allies in the Amal movement walked out for reasons related to the tribunal, in reality Hizbullah was also preparing itself for the departure in a year's time of Lahoud - a fierce ally of the party - and the election of a new head of the country closer in orientation to March 14. With the southern front frozen for now, Hizbullah's spheres of influence in the Lebanese system will gradually be chipped away if they lose the presidency without securing a minority blocking vote in government. Hence, by making this strong statement opposing what it perceives as the majority's unilateral decision-making, Hizbullah positioned itself better, looking toward the time when agreement is needed on the election of a new president.
Street demonstrations, drawn-out strikes and a carefully thought out campaign of civil disobedience were expected to be launched and to catch the government by surprise to force its resignation. Now the Gemayel assassination has reshuffled the cards. The opposition will find it difficult to carry on with threats of mass demonstrations and sit-ins and force the government's resignation. The March 14 coalition has regained the initiative and the moral high ground. It will resist for now the demands of the opposition and seek a negotiated exit out of the current stalemate, while guaranteeing the passage of the tribunal and possibly a commitment to early presidential elections.
In the weeks to come, we might see a softening of Hizbullah's position on the tribunal in an effort to defray mounting criticism after the assassination, but also to secure some gains in return. With opposition to the tribunal seen as a Shiite defense of Syrian interests against a largely Sunni demand, Hizbullah can only do so much to resist. It has been hesitant to take to the streets and paralyze the country after repeated threats to do so. While the assassination of Gemayel has allowed the March 14 movement to regain the initiative, it has also taken the pressure off Hizbullah from having to mobilize its supporters to delay and potentially obstruct the tribunal - to which it had pledged its support in the past. This could usher in serious negotiations over a way out of the current crisis, lest sectarian tensions and the Sunni-Shiite political divide spiral out of control.
A negotiated exit from the crisis would rearrange the political balance of power in Lebanon and allow major political actors to reposition themselves, giving March 14 a much-needed win while accommodating the opposition. Prior to doing this, however, the deep-seated mistrust that characterizes relations between the government and the opposition will have to be dealt with through measured, incremental trade-offs, beginning with the international tribunal and extending to government expansion and the presidential elections. At a time of national mourning, the crisis is now ripe for resolution.
**Oussama Safa is director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies in Beirut. These are his personal views. This commentary was published at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter

Berri vows to ignore actions of current Cabinet - adviser
'He will deal with its decisions as if they never occurred'
By Leila Hatoum -Daily Star staff
Monday, November 27, 2006
BEIRUT: Resigned Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has said that he would not recognize decisions passed by Premier Fouad Siniora's Cabinet in the absence of the Shiite bloc of ministers, a source close to the speaker said on Sunday. Berri's statement covered a decision Saturday to approve the formation of an international tribunal to prosecute suspects in the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri.
Berri "considers that the Cabinet session Saturday never happened, and he will deal with its decisions as if they never occurred," Arafat Hijjazi, adviser to the speaker, told The Daily Star in a telephone interview.
The Hariri tribunal was approved in a Saturday session by members of the Cabinet's majority, all members of the March 14 Forces.
"According to Speaker Berri, the current government is unconstitutional and breaches the National Accord," Hijjazi said. "It is unconstitutional because it breaches the Constitution's introduction Paragraph Y; and it breaches the National Accord because it lacks the representation of one of the major sects in Lebanon Shiite."
Paragraph Y of the Constitution's introduction notes that "there is no legitimacy for any authority that contradicts the principles of coexistence."
"The opposition will carry out its promised schedule [of protest actions]," Berri's adviser said. "Perhaps this schedule will witness some changes regarding timing and the priorities of actions to be taken. What is sure is that the schedule will be implemented."
The timing is yet to be set, according to Hijjazi.
As for the opposition's steps, he said that "instead of directly taking matters to the streets, we can ask our high officials in the public administrations to cease from working; there might be strikes in front of national institutions; the resignation of our MPs from the Parliament is an option under discussion; and perhaps taking to the streets would be a fourth or fifth step."
A senior political source close to Hizbullah told Reuters on Sunday that "the freeze in the negotiations makes the option of [going out] to the streets more imminent and the preparations are going on in this direction."
http://www.dailystar.com.lb
Hizbullah media officer Hajj Hussein Rahhal said in a telephone interview with The Daily Star Sunday that the party "doesn't rule out anything," when it comes to the timing of the opposition's street protests.
"All options are open. We might hold it [at the beginning of this week] or later, one never knows," he said.
Both the Amal Movement, headed by Berri, and Hizbullah withdrew their ministers from the Cabinet earlier this month, protesting the March 14 Forces' refusal to form a national unity government. The March 14 Forces accuse the pro-Syrian ministers of resigning in an attempt to foil the formation of the international tribunal and in protest over not being granted veto power.
Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah said over the weekend that the Shiite Ministers representing the Amal Movement and Hizbullah didn't resign because of the international tribunal.
"The sole reason is the lack of true partnership which can only be embodied through a national unity government," said Fadlallah. He said that if the March 14 Forces continue to ignore the problem, then the country would be "dragged to dangerous divisions. Siniora and his team will bear the full responsibility of these divisions' consequences."
Justice Minister Charles Rizk said Sunday in an interview with local radio station Voice of Lebanon that he "believes the fight over the tribunal is not the primary reason behind the political crisis that Lebanon is witnessing. There are more profound reasons for this crisis."
He added that during previous meetings with Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, he heard "more than once that Hizbullah welcomes the formation of the international tribunal on the condition that the tribunal be based on clear rules."
Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud has also refused to accept the government's decisions, as he deemed the Cabinet "unconstitutional and so is any decision that embarks from it." - With agencies, additional reporting by Nafez Qawas

Hizbullah: Lebanon Faces 'Dark Tunnel' After Cabinet Meeting
Naharnet: Hizbullah warned Sunday that Lebanon risked plunging into a "dark tunnel" after Premier Fouad Saniora's cabinet pressed ahead with an emergency session against the objections of pro-Syrians. Saturday's meeting of the 17 anti-Syrian ministers who remain after the withdrawal of six pro-Syrian colleagues two weeks ago was dismissed as unconstitutional by Speaker Nabih Berri and President Emile Lahoud.
Saniora called the meeting to take the next step in the ratification of an international court into ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's 2005 murder amid outrage over Tuesday's killing of anti-Syrian cabinet colleague Pierre Gemayel. "Mr. Saniora knows very well the constitutional procedures which should be respected," said Hizbullah legislator Hassan Fadlallah, referring to charges that only the president had the authority to approve an emergency cabinet meeting. "And what he is doing is a blatant violation of the constitution, either by calling on his political grouping for a meeting, or by adopting unconstitutional decisions," he said referring derisively to Saturday's meeting of the cabinet.
The opposition said it would wait until the end of the customary mourning period for Gemayel next Thursday before pressing ahead with its threatened campaign of street protests for a national unity government."The ruling majority has a chance until the mourning period ends, and it should seize that opportunity, or else they will get themselves into a dark tunnel," warned the head of the Hizbullah parliamentary bloc, Mohammed Raad.
"So we will wait for a few days. But we are still determined to carry out the actions that we had planned when the mourning period ends."
Raad warned that the six ministers who quit would not return until the prime minister began respecting Lebanon's national charter, which provides for the sharing of power between all of the country's myriad religious groups. "The ministers who resigned will not return on their resignation without a guarantee for a full participation in political decision-making," he said. "We do not consider that there is a constitutional government because we do not believe in its legitimacy. "Let the ruling majority bear the responsibility for their hegemonic rule."(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 26 Nov 06, 11:41

Erdogan in Lebanon 'Soon' to Shore Up Support for Saniora
Naharnet: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan has said he will travel to Lebanon "soon" to shore up support for Premier Fouad Saniora's government and visit Turkish peacekeepers in the south. Erdogan, in a press conference with Jordanian Prime Minister Maarouf Bakhit in Amman on Saturday, also described Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel's assassination as "a plot to ignite strife" in Lebanon. He said during his visit to Beirut he will discuss with Saniora "the developments in Lebanon in more details."According to An Nahar daily on Sunday, Erdogan also said his government does not support the withdrawal of Hizbullah from the Lebanese government because "it is time to unify the Lebanese ranks."
Hizbullah and Amal ministers resigned from Saniora's government two weeks ago after talks between the country's top rival leaders collapsed.
Erdogan expressed hope that the Lebanese will continue dialogue to achieve understanding. The Turkish premier also described U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that brought an end to the Israel-Hizbullah fighting as a "positive step." He said he will visit Turkish troops who are monitoring the ceasefire in south Lebanon since the end of the war on August 14. Both prime ministers also warned against dividing Iraq along sectarian lines, saying that would spark civil war in the already violence-wracked nation and endanger the whole region. "A division of Iraq would mean a descent into the abyss and a civil war that ... would also have dangerous repercussions for all neighboring countries," Bakhit told the press conference."We are coordinating with several countries in the region who want peace and stability for Iraq," Bakhit said, without elaborating. Erdogan warned that Turkey "will not accept a division of Iraq ... We consider a division of Iraq into three regions as the start of a civil war." Beirut, 26 Nov 06, 07:54

Report: Hezbollah replenishes half of missile stock with Iran's help
By Haaretz Service
Time Magazine has reported that Saudi and Israeli intelligence sources believe that with Iran's assistance, Hezbollah has succeeded in replenishing about half of its pre-war stockpiles of short-range missiles and small arms. According to the report, Western diplomats in Beirut say the extent weapons-smuggling is even greater, with Hezbollah restoring about 20,000 short-range missiles to date - an amount similar to the organization's stockpiles before the Lebanon war. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers have been operating out of a secret military base outside Damascus, Time claims, where the weapon shipments from Iran are received. Trucks then transfer the weapons to Lebanon. A Hezbollah spokesman told the magazine that the organizations has "more than enough weapons if Israel tries to attack us again."Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi security advisor, told Time the Iran was using its embassies in Damascus and Beirut as command and control centers through which direct orders are conveyed to Hezbollah guerrillas

Saudi King, Cheney Discuss Trouble Spots Including Lebanon
Naharnet: U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney sought Saudi help on Saturday in dealing with Iraq's spiraling violence and other regional trouble spots where U.S. policy is on the line: Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
Cheney's visit with King Abdullah was brief, lasting only a few hours before he flew back to Washington, but it underlined the two allies' concerns over upheavals across the Middle East, which many Arabs blame on U.S. policies.
In a sign of the urgency of the U.S. concern, U.S. President George Bush is scheduled to meet with Iraq's prime minister in the Jordanian capital Wednesday and Thursday to discuss security matters. The unusual succession of visits by the two U.S. leaders was planned before outbursts of violence this week dramatically worsened the situation in two countries of key American interest — Iraq and Lebanon.
On Tuesday, anti-Syrian Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was gunned down in the Beirut suburb of Jdeideh, highlighting the fragility of Premier Fouad Saniora's government and heightening tensions between the country's pro- and anti-Damascus groups. Two days later in Iraq, suspected Sunni insurgents set off a series of car bombs that killed more than 200 people in a Shiite district of Baghdad, fueling an upsurge in the retaliatory sectarian slayings that threaten to tear the nation apart. The meeting at Yamama Palace likely focused on both conflicts, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian front, which stands at a key crossroads amid attempts to form a new Palestinian government and get peace negotiations going.
The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh declined to comment on the discussions.
Before the meeting, a Saudi official said Cheney was expected to ask oil-rich Saudi Arabia to use its considerable influence with Iraq's Sunni Arab minority to promote reconciliation with Iraqi Shiites and Kurds. Sunni insurgents have staged some of the bloodiest attacks on U.S. troops and Shiites.
In return, Saudi Arabia wants the U.S. to help rein in Iraq's Shiite militias, which have been blamed for sectarian attacks that have killed thousands, said the official, who agreed to discuss the meeting only if not quoted by name because of the sensitivity of the talks.
On Lebanon, the Saudi official said the kingdom wants to ensure there are no cracks in support for the Saniora government, which is opposed by groups allied with Syria and Iran. Saudi Arabia has strong links to the anti-Syrian majority in cabinet and parliament.
The official said Saudi Arabia hopes Washington will not snub any Palestinian government that emerges from talks between the militants of Hamas and the more moderate Fatah faction. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the Persian Gulf are also deeply concerned over the West's confrontation with Iran over that nation's suspect nuclear program. Gulf countries worry about the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran and its attempts to expand its influence in the Middle East. But they also fear the West's attempt to force Iran to rein in its program could bring Iranian reprisals.(AP-Naharnet)
Beirut, 26 Nov 06, 07:14

Bolton: Gemayel Assassination Could be First Shot in Coup
Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel's murder may have sounded the "first shot" in a coup against Premier Fouad Saniora's government, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton told BBC radio Saturday. Gemayel was shot dead in broad daylight Tuesday in a car ambush blamed by anti-Syrian politicians on the Damascus regime which labeled his death "an odious crime."Gemayel was the sixth Lebanese outspoken critic of Syria to be killed in the past two years. "A few weeks ago, the White House took the unprecedented step of saying that Syria and Iran, acting through Hizbullah, were on the verge of staging a coup d'etat against the democratically-elected government, and I have to say that this assassination of Pierre Gemayel might well be the first shot in that coup," Bolton told the BBC.
Insisting that he did not want to preempt the conclusions of an inquiry into his death, he added that any proof of Damascus's involvement in the murder would show it was "not just a supporter of terrorism but is a state actor in a terrorist fashion."
He added that the U.S. would have to "take that into account when it decides whether and to what extent to deal with a country like that."
Without explicitly naming Syria, President George Bush denounced efforts to "destabilize" Lebanon on Wednesday.
Bolton said Lebanon's future is at stake in a battle between "democracy and terrorism" following Gemayel's murder in the north Beirut suburb of New Jdeideh. "The future of the Middle East, certainly the future of Lebanon may well be decided in the next several days," Bolton said.
He said Lebanon had reached a "very dramatic point" in its history after the killing.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 25 Nov 06, 16:31

Lebanon to press UN court ratification plans
Steve Kirby-AFP
November 26, 2006
BEIRUT -- Lebanon's cabinet defied its pro-Syrian opponents Saturday and adopted a measure approving the creation of an international court into ex-premier Rafiq Hariri's 2005 murder.
"The cabinet approved the draft treaty on the creation of a special international tribunal on Lebanon," Information Ghazi Aridi said, adding that it had "decided to forward the text to parliament as a bill for approval." Pro-Western Prime Minister Fuad Siniora had pressed ahead with the meeting, which was dismissed as unconstitutional by pro-Syrian parliament speaker Nabih Berri, whose support will be essential if the bill is to prosper.
Ministers had delayed the meeting's planned 5:00 pm (1500 GMT) start by more than an hour while an envoy held what proved to be fruitless last-ditch talks with Berri. A coalition source said: "The talks have failed." "The solution lies in Mr Berri's hands," was all that communications minister Marwan Hamadeh told reporters as he left the speaker's residence after the talks. The decision to press ahead by the cabinet's remaining 17 ministers - all of them Syrian foes - sets the scene for a new showdown with their pro-Damascus opponents and particularly Berri whose prerogative it is to put the necessary legislation on the parliamentary agenda. It comes against the backdrop of mounting tensions between the rival sides' supporters following outrage sparked by Tuesday's murder of interior minister Pierre Gemayel, the sixth Damascus critic to be killed in the past two years.
Anti-Syrian leaders' use of Gemayel's mass funeral Thursday to deliver fiery tirades against Damascus' allies President Emile Lahoud and Shiite militant group Hezbollah angered their opponents in turn.
A brief protest by Hezbollah supporters on the highway to the Beirut international airport Thursday evening at what they saw as the abuse of the funeral for political ends was only halted by the intervention of the movement's leader Hassan Nasrallah. The prime minister had earlier appealed to the six pro-Syrian ministers who quit the cabinet two weeks ago to return to the fold to push through the ratification of the international court.
"Since Hezbollah and Amal clearly indicated in an unequivocal manner that they are in favor of the formation of an international court to unmask the truth about the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and other crimes, I am ready to postpone the cabinet meeting for a few days if there is a genuine willingness to discuss it," the premier said. But his appeal went unheeded. The two main opposition factions vowed they would only return if the premier began respecting Lebanon's national pact, the unwritten arrangement providing for all of the country's religious and ethnic groups to be represented in government. "We cannot cooperate with those who refuse the principle of participation and want to ignore us," the two factions said in a morning statement. "We have asked the prime minister to give us the necessary time to study the [court] proposal and discuss it in a spirit of openness but he refused."
Berri's Amal faction and Shiite militant group Hezbollah, which fought a devastating summer war with Israel, warned that they were prepared to resume their plans for mass protests to press demands for a national unity government, threatening new tensions on the streets.
"In the circumstances, if the other side continues to violate the principles of the national pact, we promise the Lebanese people that we will take the necessary steps while respecting the law and democratic means," they said. The two factions had postponed their protest plans ahead of Thursday's funeral for Gemayel, which instead brought hundreds of thousands of government supporters onto the streets in an outpouring of anger against Syria and its local allies. The constitutional wrangling in Lebanon over the ratification process for the proposed international tribunal threatens to pose a thorny problem for the UN Security Council. During the endorsement debate Tuesday, the sole Arab member of the Security Council, Qatar, argued that the court's ratification in Lebanon needed to be transparent and unimpeachable. France and the United States countered that the details should be left to the Lebanese.

Iran reportedly smuggling arms to Hezbollah via Syria
Sunday, 26 November, 2006 @ 12:24 AM
Beirut - Weapons smuggled from Iran through Syria to Lebanon have rearmed Hezbollah, Time magazine reported Friday. Western diplomats in Beirut say Hezbollah has received 20,000 short-range missiles, bringing its armaments back to around their level before last summer's war with Israel. Israeli military officials say Hezbollah has about half the arms that were stockpiled when the war began. "The Iranian pipeline through Syria was already working during the war," one diplomat told Time.A Saudi official said the Iranians have been operating out of a military base outside of Damascus that serves as a transshipment point for arms. Arms convoys reportedly use mountain passes into Lebanon to bypass forces stationed on the border. The Saudis are concerned about the spread of Iranian influence, Time said. Saudi adviser Nawaf Obaid said that during a meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and US VP Dick Cheney, the king told his guest that the Saudi's will not allow the Iranians and Syrians through their ally in Lebanon , Hezbollah to take over the Lebanese government. The middle eastern countries are becoming extremely nervous about the increasing of Iranian influence in the region. Picture: Saudi Crown Prince Sultan, seated, right, meets with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, left, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2006 Source: UPI, Al Seyassah

Syria sends United States bloody signal
By Trudy Rubin
COMMENTARY
SYRIA AND IRAN know how badly the United States wants their cooperation to stabilize Iraq, and they're setting a high price.
Part of that price was made brazenly clear in Beirut on Tuesday -- where a key anti-Syrian cabinet minister, Pierre Gemayel, was shot dead in broad daylight. The price looks far higher than the United States can or should pay.
Gemayel was killed on the day the U.N. Security Council was set to endorse an international tribunal to investigate a previous assassination -- of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005.
The early phase of a U.N. probe into Hariri's death implicated top Syrian officials, along with their Lebanese henchmen. The head of the U.N. probe, former Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz, will issue another report in December; Syrian officials might one day stand before the tribunal. The implication of his regime in such a murder would threaten the survival of President Bashar Assad; the Syrians clearly want to avoid such a trial.
Although Syria denied involvement, yesterday's killing looks like a warning to Washington and to the pro-Western Lebanese government. Damascus knows the Bush team needs help in its efforts to salvage Iraq. It wants Washington to drop its support for the tribunal in return.
The Syrians have also been sending signals to Beirut that the Americans can't protect government members, and they'd better resign themselves to Syrian -- and Iranian -- overlordship. Gemayel is but the latest in a string of prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese killed in the past year.
The plight of Lebanon's brave government is particularly tragic, even in a gloomy Middle East. This government, led by the courageous Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, is the one democratic success story in the region, a Cedar Revolution born from the upheaval caused by the killing of Hariri. Lebanese and international outrage at his death -- which most Lebanese blamed on Syria -- led to the expulsion of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Syria was isolated internationally.
But the weakened Syrians soon struck back.
While Lebanese elections returned a pro-Western government, Lebanon's Shiites cast a sizeable minority of votes for the radical Shiite movement, Hezbollah, an ally of Syria and Iran. Hezbollah leaders received a huge boost after they kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, when Israel's retaliatory air war failed to defeat their fighters. The White House missed a chance to strengthen the Siniora government during Israel's air war. Early on, when Hezbollah was reeling, the Beirut government sought U.S. support for an end to the bombing and an international cash transfusion for rebuilding. Hezbollah had agreed to an unprecedented Lebanese cabinet resolution to disarm and might actually have been pressured to begin. Instead, the White House backed continued Israeli bombing of Lebanon's roads, bridges and villages, which failed to dislodge Hezbollah and undercut Siniora's hand.
Meantime, as the prospect nears of an international tribunal, Hezbollah has been trying to bring down the Siniora government in favor of one it could control. Hezbollah pulled its members and allies out of the cabinet, shrinking the number of ministers to the point at which two more defections would collapse the government. The murder of Gemayel has reduced that margin to one. Every Lebanese cabinet minister must now be wondering if he will survive the week. The Bush team is in a bind. It needs Syrian and Iranian cooperation but must not abandon the Cedar Revolution. Nor can it abandon the U.N. probe to find the killer of Hariri.
Now that the Security Council has approved the proposal for a tribunal, the Lebanese parliament must vote it up or down. Via phone to Beirut, I asked independent Lebanese parliament deputy Misbah Ahdab, a supporter of the Siniora government, what would happen: "We have the majority," he said. "The tribunal will be endorsed. "I think the United States should be firm on an international tribunal and firm on not accepting any new government in Lebanon," he continued. "This is the hijacking of a country." Ahdab said there's nothing wrong in talks between the United States and Syria. But Damascus must know that "Lebanon is not the price paid" for getting Syria into such talks, and that "the tribunal is still on."
This is the near-impossible balance the Bush team must seek if it is to avoid the Iraqi-ization of Lebanon: talking to Iran and Syria without betraying the Lebanese.
***Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. E-mail her at trubin@phillynews.com.

Hariri court gets Lebanon backing
Soldiers were deployed in central Beirut ahead of the cabinet meeting  Lebanon's cabinet has given final approval to a plan for an international tribunal to try suspects in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The emergency session was held without six pro-Syrian ministers after talks to bring them back to the cabinet failed. The pro-Western prime minister, Fouad Siniora, had offered to postpone the meeting if the ministers would return.
Tensions between the two groups were escalated by the killing on Tuesday of industry minister Pierre Gemayel. Saturday sees the second day of a strike protesting at his killing. Business leaders said they hoped the action would move Lebanon closer to a "national dialogue".
'Unconstitutional' meeting
The cabinet approved draft United Nations plans for an international tribunal on Mr Hariri's murder earlier this month.
Before the emergency session, correspondents said that if final approval were given it would be likely to increase tensions with pro-Syrian politicians.
Rafik Hariri was killed in a massive blast in February 2005
Syria has been implicated in the bombing that killed Mr Hariri last year, but denies involvement.
After the cabinet approved the UN plan, information minister Ghazi Aridi said the move was not intended as a provocation.
"It's based on a Lebanese consensus to establish this tribunal," he said.
Mr Siniora, who called the emergency cabinet session, has been under pressure to win back the support of the pro-Syrian groups within his government. Ministers delayed the start of the meeting by more than an hour as negotiations continued with the pro-Syrian parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. But it eventually went ahead without the Hezbollah movement and Mr Berri's Amal party, after they held their ground over demands for greater government representation for themselves and their allies. Mr Berri, known as an ally of Damascus, said the emergency cabinet meeting was "unconstitutional" because it had not been approved by Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. Allies of Damascus also say the tribunal is unconstitutional because the Shia community is no longer represented in the absence of the six pro-Syria ministers, says the BBC's Kim Ghattas in Beirut. But other constitutional experts say the cabinet is still legal, she says. Mr Berri's backing is essential if the tribunal is to be ratified because only the speaker can call a parliamentary session to vote on the project. Syria has also suggested at the UN that it may not co-operate with the tribunal.
'Coup plot'
Earlier on Saturday, John Bolton, the American ambassador to the United Nations, suggested that Mr Gemayel's murder might be the "first shot" in a wider coup plot against the government. He said recent probes into political killings in Lebanon suggested Syrian involvement.
While he did not want to pre-judge any investigation into Mr Gemayel's death, Mr Bolton said, proof of Syrian involvement would show it was "not just a supporter of terrorism but is a state actor in a terrorist fashion". Many Lebanese accuse Damascus of orchestrating the 34-year-old's murder, although Syria explicitly denies any role. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council has agreed to a request from the Lebanese government to help investigate Mr Gemayel's murder. Pro-Syrian groups have already said the UN plan is illegal under Lebanon's constitution.
In 2005, Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon following 29 years of military and political rule over its smaller neighbour, after massive international pressure following the assassination of Mr Hariri.

The Internal Price of the 'Sincere Promise'
Elias Harfoush Al-Hayat - 26/11/06//
Hezbollah's preoccupation with the conflict with Israel on the southern border has reflected well on its national image. Thanks to this preoccupation, the party has won a moral support never enjoyed by a party whether in Lebanon or the Arab region as a whole.
The image was that the party sacrificed every political price for a bigger patriotic cause that transcends the doctrine and the sect. Even when the party's goal was achieved by Israel's withdrawal from the occupied South in 2000, Hezbollah's Secretary General demanded no role in the subsequent political phase. Instead, he was satisfied with the 'advantages' of the pro-Hezbollah government position in support of the liberation of the Shebaa Farms. This position has given Hezbollah the freedom to carry and use arms as it pleases, given that it is an armed Resistance that will not abide by the disarmament process that has already been applied to the rest of the militias that were later subject to the State's sovereignty.
Nevertheless, reaping the 'benefit' has also resulted in the convergence of the two tracks, which meant, in political terms, and among other things, that the Lebanese foreign affairs, in regard to the conflict with Israel and the issues related to the countries of the region, must be resolved in another capital and that Beirut must accept this decision.
Under this ideal circumstance, Hezbollah was not compelled to participate in the Lebanese government, as long as government decisions appealed to it. It was able to boast that its 'national' status is higher than any ministerial post. When the equation and the decision-making's modus operandi were altered after the Syrian withdrawal, the party did not regard the internal policy with disdain anymore. Thus, its participation in government became acceptable, as well as its involvement in the decision-making, whose orientation was no longer definite as it had been.
Lebanon and the party are reaping today the harvest of that participation: the party failed to maintain its previous prestigious image and Lebanon could not benefit from the participation of Hezbollah with its broad popular base to re-forge a partnership between its various national forces, away from any external subordination.
The participation of Hezbollah in the government has become a mere sectarian representation, like other parties, that can capitalize on the national discourse as it used to. But the party became unable to hide its interests' association with the parties that sponsor its political ideology and provide it with cash and arms. The gulf between these interests and the new trends of the authority is now forcing Hezbollah to take hard-line positions that it did not need because of the convergence of the two tracks in the previous stage.
Lebanon faced, and is still facing, a real quandary in its political decision after the party's participation in government. This quandary was flagrantly represented in last summer's 'Operation Sincere Promise'. Premier Fouad Siniora's government failed to give explanation to any foreign party about its ignorance of a decision of this magnitude taken by a party that is a main member of its coalition government.
The 'True Promise', however, was in fact an implementation of the convergence of the two tracks in a different way, although the Israeli response went beyond what was expected.
The recent developments bode much worse. Hezbollah's foreign obligations have become a burden on it and on Lebanon at the same time. It is not in Hezbollah's interest when its role in the internal arena becomes comparable to that of the Mahdi Army or Badr Organization. Perhaps the Hezbollah leaders realize that the Party's dedication to the internal affairs, in light of its commitment to Resolution 1701, will give it no other alternative.
As a result of this situation, Lebanon is facing the risk of an internal division never witnessed since the civil war. Hezbollah is not ready to bargain with its project. If Hezbollah is willing to do so, its external obligations will prevent it. That being the case, the other parties will have no other means to respond but to return to their sectarian and communal bases, which the Lebanese experience was thought to have taught them to brace themselves against

A Workable Approach to Engaging Syria
Peter Harling Al-Hayat - 26/11/06//
In the wake of the Lebanon war, the clamor for Western engagement with Syria has been growing. Both pundits and policy makers throughout Europe as well as all-important foreign policy experts in the U.S. - including, reportedly, the authors of the forthcoming report of the Iraq Study Group -- have reached the conclusion that Damascus is a key to regional stability and that reopening long-dormant lines of communication is vital. The premise makes eminent sense, but if the resulting policy is simply a more polite way of asking Syria to alter its behavior, it is unlikely to bear fruit. Instead, what is needed is a serious give-and-take in which such changes are accompanied by reciprocal steps.
So far, that has not been the case. A plethora of European emissaries have journeyed to Damascus, inquiring whether their interlocutors would be willing to change their approach to Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Palestine in exchange for renewed dialogue. That, in a word, is to seek through engagement what the Bush administration has been trying to achieve through isolation. U.S. advocates of a policy change essentially propose the same equation: offering the reward of renewed talks in exchange for meaningful Syrian concessions. Unsurprisingly, past European envoys have returned empty-handed. Future American ones would fare no better.
Meanwhile, the Syrian regime is merely waiting for others to change their stance and adapt to new realities, confidently anticipating no less than a fundamental shift from the U.S. which, as a consequence of its latest regional setbacks - the deepening Iraqi quagmire, growing Iranian influence and assertiveness, continuing Hizbollah and Hamas resilience - will be compelled to beg for Syria's help. Nor is Syria likely to do anything of note so long as the investigation into the 2005 murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri - and the possibility of sanctioning the Baathist regime as a result -- hangs over its head.
But just as the West's logic is misguided, so too is Syria's assumption that, in the absence of Western acknowledgement of its key role, it can play its spoiler role. Indeed the situation throughout the Middle East has deteriorated to the point where it threatens to engulf the Syrian regime as well. In short, it's not just the West that needs the stability Syria purportedly can offer. It's the Syrian regime itself.
Another haphazard attempt to reopen a dialogue devoid of substance carries the risk of putting off the Syrian regime and convincing it that the context is not yet ripe for genuine negotiations. Conversely, Western advocates of engagement are likely to be discouraged by Syria's response, which will only validate the view that Damascus is not serious in its calls for peace. Instead, a coherent approach must be agreed upon so that any engagement with Syria can yield concrete results.
First, some understanding should be reached regarding the UN probe into the Hariri assassination. If and when compelling evidence implicating Syrian nationals is produced, Damascus will be pressured to turn them over to the soon-to-be established international tribunal. In that case, the regime itself should not be targeted or made the object of sanctions; indeed, it is hard to imagine that the investigation - regardless of its outcome - will teach the world much about Syria and its Lebanon policies that the U.S. and France did not already know at the time when they backed the regime. If Damascus proves willing to turn a page in its relations with Beirut, the West should immediately do the same in its relations to Syria.
Second, if the West seeks to engage Syria, it needs to adopt a clear and balanced discourse. Firmness on the issue of Lebanese sovereignty is absolutely justified, but so too is firmness on the issue of the return of the Golan. When Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently claimed that the Golan Heights would forever remain in Israeli hands, Syrian officials were incensed not so much by the declaration than by the absence of any Western condemnation.
Third, proponents of engagement must be prepared to offer tangible quid pro quos. Damascus has no reason to alter its policies if it simply means acquiescing to a hostile regional order . U.S. officials who reject the notion of re-engagement argue that the only quid pro quo Syria truly wants is to be given a free hand in Lebanon. But regaining the Golan Heights and reviving prospects of an equitable economic agreement with the EU remain critically important to a regime that, both politically and economically, is in need of breathing space.
Fourth, in seeking Syrian concessions, the West ought to be realistic. Syria is not about to cut its ties to Hamas, Hizbollah, Iran or Iraqi insurgent groups - links it believes are its only assets in a delicate strategic tug of war with Israel and the West. Rather, it should be asked to use these relations to more constructive effect: to pressure Hamas to implement and impose a cease-fire; to persuade Hizbollah to maintain calm; to work with Iran and Sunni insurgent groups to promote a genuine Iraqi internal reconciliation.
Engaging Syria is fast on its way to becoming the new rallying cry. But fruitless engagement is liable to do more harm than good. If Europe and the United States are serious about wanting to modify regional dynamics - as well they should be - they need to be serious about how they go about it. That begins with being serious about what one does with Syria.
**Peter Harling is a Senior Analyst with the International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org
*Original English

A Post-Modernist Square
Moustafa Zein Al-Hayat - 26/11/06//
You can see better at a distance: the day of the funeral of Minister Pierre Amin Gemayel, who was killed in broad daylight, like the Mafia does with its boldness and its vicious crimes. On this day, you did not need much imagination to remember the past civil war with its massacres and coalitions, and to feel apprehensive about the next war.
The scene was meticulously prepared in a broad square. The square is surrounded by post-modern markets and some buildings dating back to the Ottoman period and reminds one of the old Beirut, in which the civil war broke out. Parties competed with one another to destroy and rob it. Eventually, they turned it into demarcation lines and battlefronts.
In the middle of this square stood Samir Geagea, raising the flag of victory and pronouncing slogans of liberty, sovereignty and independence. He stood to demand the truth about the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri! The masses shouted his name and demanded revenge. On the platform stood Walid Jumblatt, Geagea's bitter enemy yesterday and close ally today and in the next war! He also roared and demanded the truth, reaffirming that they will stick to the International Tribunal. His masses responded positively, and acclaimed him with all their heart. They moved with him from a political position to another, forgetting the recent past. The important thing is the satisfaction of the leader and the eternal winner, who came from war and is going to war.
The funeral was not attended by Hezbollah and its masses, by General Michel Aoun and perhaps his masses, by communist and nationalist parties, or by tribes' representatives, some of whom are Muslims and others Christians. These people were preparing demonstrations with the intent of toppling the government. Nevertheless, they were betrayed by the criminals that killed Pierre Gemayel, so they postponed their movement to a moment when calm is restored. Then, they will occupy the same square or the one next to it, and analysts and observers will compete with one another in counting each trend's masses and strength. However, they will be forgetting that the fundamental drive of these masses is their sect, tribe and their loyalty to this or that leader.
The day after the sectarian and ideological instigations and the dissemination of accusations during the funeral of Minister Gemayel, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora went to his office that overlooks the square where the funerals were held. From there, he addressed the Lebanese people, 'all the Lebanese people', called on them to stay calm and to resort to reason, and called on Hezbollah's and Amal's ministers to suspend their resignations. He did not forget to remind them that he is the Prime Minister of all of Lebanon, and not of a group that calls itself the March 14 Forces. This government has its program, its orientations and its connections, which he personally took part in shaping, caring for and defending.
After a long day where Muslim blood mixed with Christian blood, according to Saad Hariri, the masses went back to their villages and cities, reassured about their ever-present past. And the leaders went back to their homes, assured about the masses' loyalty.
Tomorrow decisions will be made in the name of these loyal masses, which are ready to face any opposition with their 'blood and soul'. In these masses, everyone's blood is mixed together, and the sectarian system reproduces itself: sect against sect, project against project, international and regional support against international and regional support; and a policy that is drawn outside the national borders, but which is implemented in an arena called Lebanon with Lebanese blood. And the starting point is a post-modernist square in the twenty-first century