LCCC ENGLISH NEWS BULLETIN
NOVEMBER 11/06
Biblical Reading For today
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16,1-8.
Then he also said to his disciples, "A rich man had a steward who was reported to him for squandering his property.
He summoned him and said, 'What is this I hear about you? Prepare a full account of your stewardship, because you can no longer be my steward.' The steward said to himself, 'What shall I do, now that my master is taking the position of steward away from me? I am not strong enough to dig and I am ashamed to beg. I know what I shall do so that, when I am removed from the stewardship, they may welcome me into their homes.' He called in his master's debtors one by one. To the first he said, 'How much do you owe my master?' He replied, 'One hundred measures of olive oil.' He said to him, 'Here is your promissory note. Sit down and quickly write one for fifty.'Then to another he said, 'And you, how much do you owe?' He replied, 'One hundred kors of wheat.' He said to him, 'Here is your promissory note; write one for eighty.'And the master commended that dishonest steward for acting prudently. "For the children of this world are more prudent in dealing with their own generation than are the children of light.
Free Opinions & Studies
Narrowing the chasm. By: Lucy Fielder.Al Ahram 11/11/06
Latest New from miscellaneous sources for November 11/06
France "open" to idea of border cooperation with Syria-Kuwait News Agency
France seeks US pressure on Israeli Lebanon flights-Reuters
Ghazi Kanaan's Brother Commits Suicide-Naharnet
Syrian Arrested After Robbing Bank in the South-Naharnet
Lebanon, U.S. Sign Agreements on Military Equipment-Naharnet
Israeli Overflights Continue Despite Repeated Calls for their End-Naharnet
Blair backs MI5 terror warning-Guardian UnlimitedBritish Intelligence Chief Says 1,600 Potential Terror ...
FOX News UNDP: Lebanon's Living Standards Improved-Naharnet
Progress made at crisis talks in Lebanon-Gulf Times
Tueni Proposes Parliament Petition for Lahoud's Resignation-Naharnet
Lebanon: Hezbollah Rearms While UN Sleeps-theTrumpet.com
UN hands Lebanon draft on Hariri murder tribunal-Washington Post
Iran, Syria Relieved That Democrats Won-CNSNews.com
Indonesian contingent arrives in Lebanon to join UN peacekeepers-International Herald Tribune
UN: Israelis leave more of Lebanon-United Press International
THE STATE WITHIN A STATE-Ether Zone
Vice-president faces isolation over Iran and Syria-Guardian Unlimited
UN hands Lebanon draft on Hariri murder tribunal-Washington Post
Honesty and Bill O'Reilly-NewsByUs
Lebanon on the brink of change-BBC News
Cluster bomb kills Hezbollah guerrilla in Lebanon-Reuters
Post-conflict relief projects continue as winter approaches in ...Reuters
Lebanon on the brink of change
By Kim Ghattas -BBC, Beirut
Many Lebanese feel they are peering over a political precipice
Tension between the anti-Syrian government and the pro-Syrian opposition in Lebanon has been rising steadily over the last few weeks, with both sides trading accusations and threats. The political and world views of each party differ dramatically but everybody seems to agree on one point: something, or someone, will have to give soon. Talks between the country's top rival politicians started on Monday to look into demands by the pro-Syrian militant and political group Hezbollah that its allies be given more seats in the cabinet - enough for Hezbollah to have veto power over cabinet decisions.
The group has threatened massive demonstrations by its mainly-Shia supporters if its demands are not met - to which the anti-Syrian camp replied they too would take to the streets to show they had the most popular support. Hezbollah also claims the Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his anti-Syrian allies are American stooges. But in this tense climate, there are fears demonstrations could degenerate into violent protests. The talks, described here as national dialogue, started in March to discuss several major issues at stake in Lebanon, such as the disarming of all militias (including Hezbollah) and the fate of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. The governing coalition has long demanded that Mr Lahoud resign. The talks went on for several months but came to an abrupt halt when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers on 12 July, sparking a devastating conflict with Israel.
Dangerous rhetoric
After claiming a military victory in that conflict, Hezbollah is trying to achieve political gains on the domestic scene; it already has one minister and several allies. Hezbollah, "the Party of God" in Arabic, accuses the anti-Syrian coalition of siding with its arch-rival Israel during the 34-day conflict - a charge that can be tantamount to a death sentence in some circles. Hezbollah wants its political power to reflect its military might
Hezbollah also claims that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his anti-Syrian allies are American stooges. Critics of the militant group retort that Hezbollah does the bidding of Syria and Iran in Lebanon. While the talks, which resume again on Saturday, reflect the complex minutiae of domestic Lebanese politics, international players also have stakes involved. Last week, the White House warned that Iran and Syria were trying to topple the Lebanese government with the help of Hezbollah. So what is at stake? At the heart of it all apparently is the investigation into the assassination in February 2005 of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The inquiry is expected to conclude in mid-December and the UN, with the Lebanese government, is working on setting up a form of international tribunal.
Damning allegations
Syria has been accused of involvement in Mr Hariri's death but denies any role. The tribunal will give the innocent a chance to prove their innocence and it will give the guilty a fair trial
Justice Minister Charles Rizk
Four top Lebanese security chiefs, all allies of Syria and serving under President Lahoud, were arrested and charged in connection with the murder last year. There is speculation that the conclusions of the investigation will be damning for Syria and its allies in Lebanon. Russia, a traditional ally of Syria, has raised objections to the draft text of the tribunal and wants member of the UN Security Council to have a say in the choice of judges. Acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat, from the anti-Syrian coalition, says Hezbollah is in a race against time. "The only urgent thing now is the international tribunal, but we are very clear, we will not give in on this issue," Mr Fatfat told the BBC. Linked to that is the issue of the presidency, as the conclusions of the investigation may have an impact on Mr Lahoud.
Compromise chance?
Pro-Syrian Justice Minister Charles Rizk says the tribunal now appears inevitable and suggests it would be "unwise to oppose it as it's the best tribunal possible". All the different sides are talking, for the moment
"It will give the innocent a chance to prove their innocence and it will give the guilty a fair trial and a verdict that does not include the death penalty," he said in an interview with the BBC. Saad Hariri, the leader of the anti-Syrian majority and son of the assassinated former premier, said in a TV interview that he and his allies would resist everything that could compromise the tribunal. He also said they would not agree to a "blocking minority in government as well as a president who blocks everything". So, one of the formulas that could be worked out is a new, or amended cabinet, that includes all parties but does not give the opposition a veto power. The new cabinet could see the light after a new president is chosen or as the process takes place. This may mean having a president-elect until September 2007 when Mr Lahoud's term officially ends. But opponents of the tribunal may opt for a last-ditch attempt to sow chaos and try to derail or delay things as much as possible.
Cluster bomb kills Hezbollah guerrilla in Lebanon
10 Nov 2006
Background
Lebanon crisis
More BEIRUT, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A Hezbollah guerrilla was killed in a cluster bomb blast on Friday while clearing unexploded ordnance dropped by Israel during the recent war in Lebanon, a Hezbollah statement said. The statement said the Shi'ite Muslim group had formed units to clear hundreds of thousands of cluster bombs strewn in large areas of south Lebanon. Teams from the United Nations peacekeepers, Lebanese army and the United Arab Emirates are taking part in the demining process. The statement, which identified the slain guerrilla as Tayseer Rizk, was the first time that Hezbollah had announced that its guerrillas were taking part in defusing unexploded bombs. It did not say where exactly in south Lebanon the incident happened.
More than 20 people have been killed and 70 wounded, mostly civilians, by cluster bombs since the end of a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in mid-August.
Post-conflict relief projects continue as winter approaches in Lebanon
10 Nov 2006 -Source: World Vision Middle East/Eastern Europe office (MEERO)
More than 100,000 people to date in Lebanon are being assisted by World Vision Lebanon through several post-war relief projects meeting their immediate needs since the ceasefire from the July/August conflict.
Protection, winterization, mine action and psychosocial intervention are all priority needs for World Vision Lebanon.
'Currently, relief activities are continuing, ranging from partnership educational support and winterization to rehabilitation of public schools or centers that were used for displaced gatherings,' said project manager Ruba Khoury. 'All Area Development ADPs have resumed development work or are transitioning to it, like Ain El Remaneh and Marjeyoun, both of which were the most physically affected ADPs during the war,' said Khoury.
Ain el Remmaneh and Marjeyoun ADPs are currently preparing their annual operations plans and are seeking additional funds for needs highlighted in the assessment conducted by World Vision Lebanon.
Relief activities will continue until the coming April, in order to minimize or lessen the economic, social and psychosocial effects of war on all World Vision Lebanon ADPs. As winter approaches, water and sanitation projects are being carried out in south Lebanon thanks to a grant from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) which will cover the distribution of hygiene-related non food items (NFI), including water tanks and water sanitations products for 1,600 households or a total of 8,000 beneficiaries in south Lebanon
A similar grant by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) to World Vision Lebanon will cover the distribution of water tanks and potable water in south Lebanon, in addition to providing winterisation needs for over 99,000 beneficiaries in south Lebanon and the Bekaa. The winteriszation needs range from the provision of blankets to ,stoves and heating fuel.
Children in south Lebanon began school two weeks ago with assistance from a generous $170,000 grant from Johnson and Johnson, an international pharmaceutical company. Over 1,400 children and families registered in World Vision programs in Marjeyoun, south Lebanon benefit from the Johnson and Johnson grant as they prepare to begin school in difficult post-war conditions This generous grant , which has guaranteed funding for equipment for two child friendly spaces, yet US $65,000 is still needed by World Vision Lebanon in order to purchase the physical structure to house one of the Child Friendly Spaces (CFS).pace Over 1,400 children and families registered in World Vision programs in Marjeyoun, south Lebanon benefit from the Johnson and Johnson grant as they prepare to begin school in difficult post-war conditions. 'This grant is so important and will help lift the moral of children who seen their school destroyed. We hope this grant will lead to emergence of hope within the children of the community,' said Hanna Swidan, Marjeyoun ADP manager.
Blair backs MI5 terror warning
Staff and agencies
Friday November 10, 2006
Guardian Unlimited
Tony Blair today backed the assessment of the head of MI5 that the "very real" threat from terrorism would last a generation.
In a rare public speech yesterday, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, director general of the intelligence agency, expressed concern at the rate at which young people, including teenagers, were being radicalised and indoctrinated. She said MI5 was tracking more than 1,600 individuals who were actively engaged in promoting attacks here and abroad. Many of these were British-born and had connections with al-Qaida, she said.
Responding to her comments that the threat would "be with us for a generation", the prime minister said today Britain faced a "long and deep struggle" to combat the danger posed by terrorism.
Echoing yesterday's speech by the foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, he said it was important to "stand up and be counted", and to tackle the "poisonous propaganda" that warped young people's minds.
He said: "I have been saying for several years this terror threat is very real. It has been building up over a long period of time." Mr Blair, who was speaking during a Downing Street press conference after a meeting with the New Zealand prime minister, Helen Clark, added: "I think [Dame Eliza is] absolutely right that it will last a generation.
"We need to combat the poisonous propaganda of those people that warps and perverts the minds of younger people.
"It's a very long and deep struggle, but we have to stand up and be counted for what we believe in and take the fight to those people who want to entice young people into something wicked and violent but utterly futile."
Inayat Bunglawala, a spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain, said Dame Eliza had given "a very sobering warning".
But he said it was essential that British Muslims were seen as "a partner in the fight against terrorism and not some sort of community in need of mass medication"."Holding a community responsible for the actions of a few would be counterproductive," he added. He said that after the bombings and this week's conviction of Dhiren Barot for plotting terrorist attacks, "It must be prudent to assume there are cells out there plotting similar outrages."
But he repeated calls for a public inquiry into the July 7 attacks, saying this would be an "essential tool" in understanding how four young people had been radicalised into committing mass murder. Ihtisham Hibatullah, of the British Muslim Initiative, said he was concerned that Muslim communities as a whole would be stigmatised by the claim that 200 groups were involved in plotting. And Bill Durodie, a senior lecturer in risk and security at the Defence Academy, warned that high-profile speeches risked exaggerating the scale of the threat facing Britain. "It's easy to pull out alarmist headlines," he said. "What we're seeing here on the whole are lone individuals [and] small groups."
British Intelligence Agency Tracking 1,600 Potential Terror ConspiratorsAP- Friday, November 10, 2006
LONDON — British authorities are tracking almost 30 terrorist plots involving 1,600 individuals, the head of Britain's MI5 spy agency said, adding that many of the suspects are homegrown British terrorists plotting homicide attacks.
In a speech released by her agency Friday, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller said MI5 had foiled five major plots since the July 2005 transit bomb attacks in London. Speaking to a small audience of academics in London on Thursday, Manningham-Buller said officials were "aware of numerous plots to kill people and to damage our economy." "What do I mean by numerous? Five? Ten?" she said. "No, nearer 30 that we currently know of."
She said MI5 and the police were tackling 200 cells involving more than 1,600 individuals who were "actively engaged in plotting or facilitating terrorist acts here and overseas." Senior anti-terrorist officials have said before that they have foiled several plots since the July 2005 attacks, but Thursday's talk contained the first public estimate of the threat by the head of Britain's domestic spy agency. Manningham-Buller, who has headed MI5 since 2002, said the plots "often have linked back to Al Qaeda in Pakistan, and through those links Al Qaeda gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale."Terror Threats Tracked She warned that radicalization, especially of young people, was one of the biggest problems facing anti-terror investigators.
On July 7, 2005, four suicide bombers killed 52 people on three subway trains and a bus in London. Three of the four bombers were British-born.
This August, police said they had foiled a plot by a British terrorist cell to blow up trans-Atlantic airliners in midair. More than a dozen people, all British, are awaiting trial in the case. On Tuesday, a British Muslim convert, Dhiren Barot, was sentenced to life in prison for plotting to attack U.S. financial landmarks and blow up London targets with limousines packed with gas tanks, napalm and nails.Manningham-Buller said some of the plots MI5 was tracking could be less threatening than the deadly 2005 ones, but that they still must be investigated. She said the threat from international terrorism "is serious, is growing, and will, I believe, be with us for a generation." "It is the youth who are being actively targeted, groomed, radicalized and set on a path that frighteningly quickly could end in their involvement in mass murder of their fellow U.K. citizens," Manningham-Buller said. "Young teenagers are being groomed to be suicide bombers. "Today we see the use of homemade improvised explosive devices, but I suggest tomorrow's threat will include the use of chemicals, bacteriological agents, radioactive materials and even nuclear technology," she added.
Nidal Al-Ashqar: A theatre of war
Having fled the south during Israel's brutal war on Lebanon, many found a most unlikely shelter immediately on arriving in Beirut -- in Nidal Al-Ashqar's Masrah Al-Madina.
Interview by Amira Howeidy
At her five-star hotel, overlooking the Nile, Lebanese director, actress and writer Nidal Al-Ashqar sits casually on the uncomfortably small café chair. It is Saturday at noon and, notwithstanding the dazzle of the sun, autumn is in the air. Al-Ashqar is impeccably made-up, her hair perfect, but she insists she is extremely exhausted: Cairo is but her latest stop on an ongoing quest for fundraising on behalf of Masrah Al-Madina (The City Theatre), one of Beirut's best known, most active venues. Shut since Israel launched its month-long war on Lebanon, on 13 June -- in the course of which it literally destroyed half the country -- the theatre will reopen in a matter of days. It had been rocking Beirut with Tistifil Meryl Streep (To hell with Meryl Streep), a sociopolitical comedy based on Rashid Al-Daif's eponymous novel, but once it resumes its activities, on 29 November, Masrah Al-Madina will tell a different story; following the war, after all, the madina it is named for is no longer the same place.
So the war is over -- for now -- and the theatre is back to track, the nidal (Arabic for struggle) resumed. Having raised funds during the war, Al-Ashqar says, it is her theatre's turn now. This is very, very important, she insists, because unless people like her worked hard at fundraising, there would no be no theatre in Lebanon -- a country in which, unlike Arab neighbours, there is no state support for the arts. Lebanese theatre has always depended on individual efforts supported by civil society. And Al-Ashqar is one such -- iconic -- individual, her theatre working to support as well as to host performances.
"It's exhausting and expensive to run a theatre, because it involves continuous fund- raising. To tell you the truth, I'd rather direct and act, but where? I need a theatre."
Which is why she founded her own, with the help of the late Lebanese premier Rafik Al-Hariri, whose private construction company renovated and re-constructed an old but beautiful cinema called Clemenceau, giving birth to post-Civil War Beirut's famous Masrah in 1993. The inauguration over, fundraising kept the theatre going for 10 years -- until the contract with the owners of Clemenceau expired in 2004, prompting Al-Ashqar to start the nidal all over again. "I really had no clue where to start again or where to get the money to do that." For months she scoured old performance venues, of which the war-ridden city offers many, until she finally settled on the old Cinema Saroulla on the central thoroughfare of Al-Hamra -- the theatre's current location. "Right away I fell for this beautiful place, originally built in the 1960s. Back then the architecture was much richer in detail, with columns and ornaments. I thought I'd protect the project by setting up a non-profit organisation with a board of trustees." Opening on 16 March 2005, it cost over $400,000 and, instead of support -- surprisingly for Al-Ashqar, who never stops marvelling at the official indifference towards the theatre movement in Lebanon -- the government had only trouble to offer. "People have this imaginary notion of Lebanon as a truly free and independent society. This isn't true. The Securité Général read everything that goes on stage or television. There is a lot of censorship in Lebanon. I fight for my scripts, trying to explain things to them." And she often has a lot of explaining to do.
Tistifil Meryl Streep, for example, is about virginity and sexuality in Lebanon, reflecting Al-Daif's "very modern, very cruel and very real" work. The book was dramatised with the help of Mohamed Al-Qassemi, a friend as well as a writer. Starring Eli Karam and Rana Alamedin and directed by Al-Ashqar, it was a big hit. But the "explaining" proved so complicated, Al-Ashqar got security officials to come and watch the play instead. "I want people to be free to express whatever they want to. And people in Lebanon want to express sexuality and politics. The latter is very difficult, especially now. Which is why there are lots of plays based on rejection, saying no to the sociopolitical situation. Young artists talk about sexuality because there is something else they can't talk about. And when they do deal with sexuality, the security stops them or tampers with their scripts. We are fighting to survive, fighting to get money, fighting for out subjects -- and I tell you, it's exhausting." Which is why she found it heart warming when, the night before this conversation, a group of friends including jewel designer Azza Fahmy, the owners of the Wadi Food oil groves and Qassem Ali, the general director of the Palestinian Ramattan News Agency sponsored a fundraising dinner for the Masrah: "it bolsters the spirit to see how much people here love Lebanon and how much they care about the theatre. It means a lot that the Lebanese should have a theatre to go to, a place where they can feel human, listening to music, meditating, dreaming, engaging in philosophical discussions and arguing over social issues." Yet this is not quite what the place was in the course of the last war, when the theatre turned into an equally valuable if very different place.
Al-Ashqar was in Paris when the war broke out, and the Beirut airport being closed, she had to stay there. One day she received a phone call from the theatre telling her that people were knocking on the door asking to be let in -- families from South Lebanon, seeking shelter in Beirut. "They asked me what to do," she recounts. "And I said to open and let them in. We have plenty of space. For a little less than a month the theatre became home to 250 families, with 150 families sleeping over at night. But artists too were soon knocking, asking what they could do for the theatre. Following discussions over the phone, again, a series of workshops for the refugees' children, Dreams Under Fire, was launched. "It's a great feat, unprecedented anywhere in the world, that a theatre should contribute to civil society in this way." It was certainly the only theatre doing so in Lebanon. "The beauty of it was that it happened on the spur of the moment, without preparation or planning; and it really captured the mood of the Lebanese at this difficult time. The children would come in at 10am and stay till the evening. Through an ad-hoc SOS committee, they were provided with sandwiches, juice, paper and pencils as well as money. In the afternoon a cinema would be set up for screening Egyptian and European cartoons for their benefit."
Now it is all over, Al-Ashqar is ready for the post-war challenge of "staging" Lebanon Lebanon, published by the London- based Lebanese house Dar Al-Saqi and written by 70 well- known authors from all over the world, including Harold Pinter, John Le Carre, Adonis and Robert Fisk. "It is not a question of reading the texts; rather, creating a montage from the ideas that connect them -- to perform and sing on stage. It's a homage to Lebanon by all these fantastic writers, and I will be directing and acting in it." Al-Ashqar selected this book, she says, simply because it is about the war. "I want to give voice to an international response to the war in Lebanon. The piece will be in English, Arabic and French. And it is very poignant, all the more so because we have voices from all over the world trying to say something about Lebanon, trying to say something to Israel." Is the world ready to say something to Israel, though? "Yes, yes. Not everybody is with Israel, believe me... The Arab street is against Israel. And in Europe and the US they are fed up, they see Bush as himself the biggest terrorist." For better or worse, Lebanon continues to reel from the ripples of the war. In the meantime, Al-Ashqar quietly sips her espresso in the Nile- view café where we are still seated. Before I know it, however, she has turned into a political analyst angry with the polarisation of views currently dividing her country. She has switched from English to Arabic, too.
"Since independence and to this day, there hasn't been one Lebanese citizen who belongs to the single cause that is Lebanon. The state itself was built on sectarian bases, although the Lebanese constitution makes no reference to sectarianism -- which was introduced by the French and the British. Originally, this region was called Greater Syria, the Fertile Crescent. Enter Sykes Pico, however, and it is suddenly divided between France and Britain. As a result of this, the Arab entities gained a kind of pseudo- independence, thanks to the French and British -- a sick, sectarian independence in the case of Lebanon, one that continues to divide and kill the Lebanese today. Because it was decided that the Lebanese president should be a Christian Maronite, the speaker of the house a Shia and the prime minister a Sunni. After Lebanon's independence in the 1940s, Israel was planted to the south, in the heart of Palestine. Israel robbed the Palestinians of their country -- something unprecedented in history. Since then we've been in conflict, we've been resisting, we've been through civil war and we shall continue to resist, even though some people are surprised that we have a resistance at all. We've always had a resistance, since resisting the occupation in the 1930s we've had it. Why should we not have a resistance now?"
Whose side is Al-Ashqar on, though?
"I don't care what the Lebanese cabinet will look like. I have a feeling -- and I hope I'm wrong -- that this is leading to another civil war. Warlords can't make peace. There is no vision for constructing a civil Lebanon. [Today's players in Lebanon] are afraid that their roles will be taken away from them. To me it seems like a play in which all the actors did a bad job and, when told they failed miserably in this Shakespearean play so they are going to be replaced, they are protesting. How can you turn us into extras? We refuse. But you have to ask: how can a murderer liberate Lebanon? How can he turn into a democrat and defender of freedom and independence? This is nothing more than sectarianism."
Does this apply to the resistance as well? No, says Al-Ashqar.
Well, whose side is she on? "I take the side of any resistance against Israel. I support any person who fights Israel." In fact she "deeply" admires Hizbullah's leader Al-Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, she says, which is rather untypical for a Maronite. But she is already digressing again. "I'm not a Maronite. I'm an Arab. I consider us Muslims. Some of us believe in the Quran, others in the Bible. And there are those of us who believe in wisdom." Unfortunately, she goes on, this is a bad time for Arabs. "All we have are extremists. Where are those who believe in Arab unity?" she asks rhetorically. It is a time when men like Asad Al-Ashqar, the prominent Lebanese pan-Arab leader who happens to be Nidal's father, are sorely missed. "And I don't say that because I'm his daughter. But we need people like him who believe in civil governance now." At least there is Nasrallah, whom she would have preferred without a turban. "But what he's doing, turban or not, is truly heroic."
Narrowing the chasm
Lebanon's leaders have gathered for dialogue -- again. But with war having deepened divisions, few see much hope for success.Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut -Al Ahram 10/11/06
This summer's war between Israel and Hizbullah tore Lebanon asunder along age-old fault lines. Tensions between Hizbullah, its allies and the anti-Syrian-dominated government, simmering over the past year, have threatened to boil over. At their heart lie fundamentals such as Lebanon's role in the Arab-Israeli conflict, sectarian political rule and the issue of Hizbullah's arms and how to defend the nation. Some differ even over whether their arch-enemy lies to their east or south.
Hizbullah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah warned at a "Divine Victory" rally in September of a concerted campaign to change the government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora. After his promised Ramadan truce came to an end, he fired the warning shots last week, stirring fears of some Christians, Sunnis and Druze that Lebanon was descending towards civil war.
"We can instigate civil disobedience, topple the government, and bring about early elections," he said in a taped interview with Hizbullah's Al-Manar channel on 31 October. "But we are not threatening to do this, so don't scare us with talk of civil strife or civil war."
Nasrallah warned his group could "take to the streets" unless the cabinet was reshuffled by mid- November. Hizbullah and its allies -- the most influential of which is Christian leader Michel Aoun -- should command a third of cabinet seats, he said, which would give it a veto over government decisions. Hizbullah and its Shia ally Amal currently have five seats in the 24-member cabinet. Aoun scored highly in Christian heartlands in last year's elections, but power has eluded him.
In a statement that did not play well with the part of Lebanese opinion that accuses the anti- Syrian leadership of pulling their country away from Damascus's orbit and into a US one, Washington warned of a plot by Iran, Syria and Hizbullah to topple the government.
"We're making it clear to everybody in the region that we think there ought to be hands off the Siniora government; let them go about and do their business," White House spokesman Tony Snow said in a statement.
"And if you have the example of a stable democracy that's able to fend off terror -- in the case of Lebanon, from Hizbullah -- then you have an opportunity to create an entirely different set of circumstances in the Middle East."
"National consultations" that started this week in Beirut are then a baby-step at best. All leaders attended except Nasrallah, who for security reasons sent the head of his parliamentary bloc, Mohamed Raad. Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who presided over a drawn-out and ultimately inconclusive "national dialogue" earlier this year, convened the talks. Those earlier meetings were hailed as the first time the main sectarian and political leaders of Lebanon had gathered round the table to discuss the issues dividing the country of 17 religious sects since the ruinous 1975-90 Civil War.
But talks lapsed before they got to Hizbullah's controversial arms. Shortly afterwards, on 12 July, Hizbullah captured two Israeli soldiers and Israel unleashed its military machine on Lebanon's South, southern suburbs of the capital and countrywide infrastructure, killing 1,200 people, nearly all of them civilians. Nasrallah said in last week's interview that "serious negotiations" were underway to exchange the soldiers with Lebanese prisoners in Israel, mediated by a UN delegate. Israel declined to comment.
Hizbullah and its allies say an expanded government would reflect a shifted balance of power in the country. It accuses the anti-Syrian ruling bloc of hoping Israel would sort out its Hizbullah problem -- the government distanced itself from the seizure of the soldiers and failed to persuade its allies in Washington to push for a ceasefire -- and backing US-Israeli calls for its disarmament.
The anti-Syrian parliamentary majority is led by Saad Al-Hariri, son of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri whose assassination last year many Lebanese blamed on Syria. He has accused pro-Syrian Hizbullah of seeking to hamper efforts to form an international court to try Al-Hariri's killers. Lebanon's council of ministers would have to pass a law to establish the tribunal. The leadership says it would consider allowing Aoun representatives to the cabinet, but not enough to grant the opposition a blocking third.
Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, said the talks were unlikely to bridge the gaps. "Short of a miracle, we're not expecting much. Most of the issues in hand to discuss are greater than the participants; they're regional issues to be dealt with by regional powers such as the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran. But the fact that they are talking at least keeps the streets calm."
He doubted Hizbullah would carry out its threat to take to stage demonstrations. "That option is costly and that option might not achieve much. I don't think it fits in with Hizbullah's pragmatism." Safa predicted instead a drawn-out political tug of war.
Fawwaz Traboulsi, a historian who helped lead resistance to Israel's 1982 invasion, wrote an opinion piece in the left-wing daily As-Safir last week agreeing with the call for early elections but differing with Nasrallah's methods.
"When the secretary-general of Hizbullah threatens to use the street if the dialogue stops or if the other side does not approve the national unity government, and this threat comes from a side that has the weapons and fighters that Hizbullah has, it does not comfort most Lebanese concerning the peacefulness of that approach because they have been through civil fighting many times."
"The fear of civil war could itself become a factor in sparking such strife."
Both sides in Lebanon say they command majority popular support. A key demand of the opposition is reforming the electoral law -- long seen as unfair -- then having early elections. A poll by the Beirut Centre for Research and Information released on Monday found that the opposition (Hizbullah, Christian leader Michel Aoun and allied smaller parties) would win early elections, whichever proposed electoral law they were conducted under.
Under the qada law of small electoral districts to reflect the sectarian mosaic, the opposition would win 69 of the 128 parliamentary seats, the anti-Syrians 59. Under the two proposed modes of proportional representation, the opposition would win 79 to 53 to the anti-Syrians, or 71 to 57. There were 1,300 respondents, split across regions and sects, in the poll conducted in late October.
"What I find important is that Hizbullah, the Aounists and the Future movement to some extent have support across all the sects," said Abdu Saad, the centre's director. "We hope to see these changes lead to a transformation from sectarian to national parties because this is the most important ingredient in a civil society. And without civil society, we cannot have democracy."