For Immediate Release Lebanon

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 11/07

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11,1-4. He was praying in a certain place, and when he had finished, one of his disciples said to him, "Lord, teach us to pray just as John taught his disciples."He said to them, "When you pray, say: Father, hallowed be your name, your kingdom come. Give us each day our daily bread and forgive us our sins for we ourselves forgive everyone in debt to us, and do not subject us to the final test."

Report
Hizbullah and the Lebanese crisis. (Lengthy Report)By International Crisis Group (ICG). October 10/07

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 10/07-Naharnet
Bkirki's Only Issue in Focus: Participation in Presidential Election.Naharnet
Lebanon Sends U.N., Arab League Updates on Fatah Islam Links with Syria, Hizbullah Armament.-Naharnet
Interrogation of Fatah al-Islam Terrorists Revealed-Naharnet
Families return to Lebanon camp.BBC News
Beirut permits 30000 refugees from embattled Nahar al Bard camp ...DEBKA file
Political Fragmentation Hinders Lebanon's Stability"PINR
US gov't split over Israeli data on Syria-N. Korea ties.Ha'aretz
Lebanon Seeks Help From Russia, China.The Associated Press
UNIFIL Navy Jams Israeli Sat. TVs-Naharnet
Lebanon reaps deadly Israeli bombs one year after war.ReliefWeb (press release)
Lebanon's Hariri urges strong UN words on killings.Reuters
Hariri Urges U.N. to Take 'Firmer Stand' on Assassinations-Naharnet
U.N. Optimistic Over Demarcation of Israel-Lebanon border-Naharnet
Understanding the Israeli Attack on Syria.Ha'aretz
Refugee groups blast lack of US help for Iraqis.AFP
Hariri asks Russia, China to prevent interference in presidential vote.AP
All eyes on Bkirki ahead of crucial talks-Daily Star
Winograd report to spare Olmert-Daily Star
Graziano: UNIFIL tasked with achieving permanent cease-fire, not regional peace-Daily Star
Siniora briefs Ban, Moussa on worries about militia training-Daily Star
UAE honors journalists touched by violence-Daily Star
Maronite Patriarchate 'losing influence' in Lebanese politics-Daily Star
Report sketches history, future of Hizbullah-Daily Star
Police subject Olmert to marathon questioning over suspect bank sale.AFP
Auction of Lebanese cellular networks set for February 2008-Daily Star
'Today he would have been 12 years old-Daily Star
Israelis grab more land near East Jerusalem.AFP
Algerian troops slay deputy head of Al-Qaeda in North Africa-Daily Star

Son of slain Lebanese leader asks Russia, China to prevent interference in presidential vote
The Associated PressPublished: October 9, 2007
UNITED NATIONS: The leader of the anti-Syrian majority in Lebanon's parliament on Tuesday called on Russia and China to use their influence to stop disruptive elements from interfering in his country's upcoming presidential election. Saad Hariri, the son of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, also urged the U.N. to take stronger action against those responsible for a recent string of assassinations in Lebanon targeting anti-Syrian lawmakers and other figures.
"What's happening today in Lebanon is a destabilizing coup," Hariri told reporters at U.N. headquarters in New York, flanked by several bodyguards.
"When you have members of parliament sitting in a building to protect themselves from an assassination that might happen ... I think this is not acceptable for the international community. I think the international community should move on those who committed these crimes in a very swift way," he added.
The Lebanese parliament failed to elect a president last month because of a boycott by the Syrian-backed opposition. Lawmakers have been unsuccessful so far in efforts to reach agreement on a consensus candidate between the pro-government camp and the opposition.
China promotes military officers experienced in Taiwan affairsBelgians agree on one issue: foreignersPrivate security guards kill 2 women in BaghdadThe anti-Syrian coalition is led by U.S.-backed Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, a close ally of Hariri. The opposition is led by the Syria-backed Shiite Muslim militant group Hezbollah.
The parliament has scheduled another session on Oct. 23 to choose a successor to President Emile Lahoud, who steps down Nov. 24. More than 15 declared or undeclared candidates are vying for the post, three of them from the pro-Saniora faction and one from the opposition.
Failure to elect a president before Nov. 24 could lead to two rival governments in Lebanon.
Government supporters accuse Syria of seeking to eliminate Saniora's small majority in parliament before the election by targeting members of the ruling coalition for assassination. Eight prominent anti-Syrian figures have been killed in Lebanon since 2005, including Rafik Hariri.
Damascus has denied any involvement in the slayings. Saad Hariri said there was an effort under way in Lebanon to derail the elections.
"When you have somebody trying to affect or interfere in electing a president in Lebanon and trying to push his own agenda for a president that is close to, let's say, Syria or other countries, we refuse that," he told reporters. Hariri said he spoke with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon about the importance of holding the elections on time, and he appealed for Russia and China to help the country remain calm.
"What we want is to elect a president for the Lebanese people and we don't want any interference from anyone," he said. "Actually, what we ask (is for) his excellency the Russian ambassador and the Chinese ambassador to interfere with those who are interfering ... in Lebanese politics."
Earlier, Russia's U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, said he told Hariri that his country would do everything it could to help the elections run smoothly.
When asked what specific steps Russia would take, Churkin said it had sent messages to "all the parties" involved stressing the importance of the territorial integrity and stability of Lebanon. He didn't identify the parties. China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya also met with Hariri on Tuesday, but details of the meeting were not disclosed. Last week, President George W. Bush directly warned Syria against interfering in the election after meeting with Hariri in Washington.
"I am deeply concerned about foreign interference in your elections," Bush told Hariri, adding that many nations have called on Syria to stay out. "We expect Syria to honor that demand."The U.N. has authorized an international tribunal to try suspects in the slayings of Hariri and the other anti-Syrian figures, but some say it is taking too long to set up.The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Zalmay Khalilzad, said Tuesday the recent assassinations would not slow down the process. "If anything, it has increased our efforts to (set it up) as soon as possible," he said.

Maronite Patriarchate 'losing influence' in Lebanese politics
'The change is the rivalry between the sect's politicians'
By Michael Bluhm -Daily Star staff
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
BEIRUT: Even as Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir tries to pursue the Church's traditionally weighty role in the country's politics, the influence of his post has dwindled in comparison to previous prelates, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Tuesday.
Other patriarchs failed to force their chosen candidates into the presidency, but Sfeir leads a Maronite community whose numbers are shrinking as a share of the total populace and whose members have split into mutually hostile pro-government and opposition camps, the analysts said. Sfeir has arranged meetings on Thursday and Friday with rival Christian leaders to search for an exit from the impasse over the presidency, but the feuding factions have made little progress with about six weeks before the post becomes vacant.
Compared to former Maronite leaders, "the role of Patriarch Sfeir is much weaker," said Oussama Safa, general director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. "The Maronites are weak. They are a minority. They are divided among themselves."
Tensions have run high for almost a year between Christians aligned with the ruling, Western-backed March 14 coalition, such as the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges Party, and the Christians grouped largely around the Hizbullah-led opposition's Free Patriotic Movement, led by MP Michel Aoun.
"In principle, the same power is there" at the top of the Church hierarchy, said Chafik Masri, professor of international law at AUB and elsewhere. "But ... the change is the severe rivalry between the Maronite politicians themselves [and] also the severe intervention of some regional influence as well."
US President George W. Bush, who last week hosted parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose nation helped found
Hizbullah, have explicitly identified Lebanon as an arena where each wishes to stamp out the other's influence.
"Compared to other patriarchs, who took important decisions and represented Lebanon in important conferences that decided the fate of Lebanon with foreign powers, I wouldn't say Sfeir compares favorably," said political analyst Simon Haddad. "I find his role more or less marginal to the political situation."
Aside from the fissure plaguing Lebanon's Maronites, Sfeir's reach has diminished as the bond between religious authority and political power has shrunk since the days when France leaned heavily on then-Patriarch Elias Houwayek in securing the French Mandate over Lebanon after World War I, added Haddad.
"We can't go back 100 years and say that religion and politics still mix today as before," Haddad said. "It's maybe not the fault of the patriarch."
Patriarchs such as Houwayek have enjoyed wide influence in Lebanon's affairs, but many have fallen short in securing the power they desired. For example, when Orthodox Christian Charles Debbas was elected head of state in 1926, Houwayek intervened and demanded the position go to a Maronite, but Debbas stayed.
Sfeir's role in this presidential campaign is "absolutely" in line with history, Safa said.
"This is an extension of a habit, of a custom," Safa added. "He's trying to put the Maronite house in order."
"The Maronite patriarch through history is always involved in the sociopolitical life and development of the country," Masri said. "After independence, that role was or
has been played" by most of the patriarchs.Another constant pattern has been the resistance of Maronite politicians to bow to the patriarchs' wishes, Haddad said. The politicians, in fact, have long pushed to limit the Church's sway, he added. "It has been a trend for Maronite leaders to [weaken] as much as possible the influence of Bkirki," Haddad added. "It has been their goal to marginalize the patriarch."
For instance, then-Patriarch Paul Butros Meouchi wanted then-President Bechara al-Khoury to occupy the post again in 1958, but Fouad Chehab became the president. Meouchi then favored Suleiman Franjieh in 1964, only to see Charles Helou ascend to the state's highest office. Khoury, Lebanon's first post-independence president, had a stormy relationship with the clergy. He sent the Vatican a letter asking the pope to send Beirut Bishop Monsignor Mubarak out of Lebanon so he would stop interfering in politics. But despite the perpetual friction between the Church and secular leaders, many Lebanese - and not just Maronites - are looking to Bkirki for guidance in escaping from the deadlock now paralyzing the country, Masri said. The gathering could present an opportunity for the estranged political factions to begin moving toward a consensus candidate, but it could also be a forum for the patriarch to take a clear stand on how the presidential conundrum should be solved, Masri added. "I think that this attempt should have been done in an earlier period, but now [it's] better than nothing," Masri said. "Whether this or that, the patriarch has to express his word," he added. "The people are expecting a certain final word from the patriarch."

Bkirki's Only Issue in Focus: Participation in Presidential Election
Naharnet: Preparations were underway for the separate Bkirki meetings scheduled for Thursday and Friday with one issue in focus: partaking in the upcoming presidential election. The meetings, orchestrated by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, were aimed at what seemed to be preventing the "marginalization" of Christians. Sfeir also hoped that the warring Christian sides would reach consensus on a presidential candidate. Media reports said Thursday's meeting would include, in addition to Sfeir, Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun, Al Marada Movement chief and former cabinet minister Suleiman Franjieh and any other Maronite opposition figure who wishes to attend. While Friday's conference would comprise former President Amin Gemayel, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, presidential hopeful Nassib Lahoud as well as head of the National Bloc Carlos Edde, and Dory Chamoun, leader of the National Liberal Party.
The daily An Nahar said on Wednesday that the meetings at Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite church, were designed to emphasize one point: the need to take part in the presidential election. It said Sfeir called for these meetings "in order to deal with the issue of participation of parliamentarians" in the next presidential election session rescheduled for Oct. 23 to avoid a political vacuum.As Safir newspaper, in turn, quoted a senior Christian leader as saying that the "nature of the meetings mirror a Bkirki desire for sending a clear-cut message to the Christian leaderships warning them against the dangers of a Christian divide." Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 10:10

Lebanon Sends U.N., Arab League Updates on Fatah Islam Links with Syria, Hizbullah Armament
Naharnet: Prime Minister Fouad Saniora sent U.N. chief Bank Ki-moon and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa latest updates on Fatah al-Islam's links with Syria and Hizbullah's armament. Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said at the end of a cabinet session on Tuesday evening that the memorandums contained "information obtained by Lebanese army intelligence services and the information department of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) about armament in the country and the situation at the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in North Lebanon." "The letters are aimed at giving an accurate image of what is happening in the country," Aridi said.
He said the government decided to refer the assassination of anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanem to the Judicial Council. Ghanem was killed in a car bomb in Beirut's Sin el-Fil neighborhood on September 19. Aridi said Saniora has asked Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar – which he recently visited -- to provide the Lebanese army, police as well as the government and the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) with the "necessary support" to rebuild the Nahr al-Bared camp and allow its residents to recover their homes.Starting Wednesday, the displaced families will be allowed to return in groups of 100 families per day, UNRWA said. Some 30,000 refugees fled Nahr el-Bared during the battle between Fatah al-Islam and the Lebanese army. The repatriation is being organized by UNRWA in collaboration with both Lebanese and Palestinian groups. The Lebanese army has said the camp will be completely cleared of gunmen, unexploded shells, mines and booby traps before anyone returns, and the government has promised to rebuild devastated parts of Nahr al-Bared Aridi said the cabinet also agreed to a request by Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh to issue stamps in honor of sacrifices made by troops at Nahr al-Bared. On the issue of Hizbullah's unlawful phone networking, Aridi said the government was waiting for confirmation that all lines -- which run parallel to the state's phone system -- had been removed. Lebanese authorities in August revealed that the installation of the underground cables had been discovered in south Lebanon as well as in Beirut and its suburbs. Aridi also said that a committee had been set up to follow up on the fires that swept Lebanon earlier this month and study ways to deal with the "damaged areas." He said that Interior Minister Hassan Sabaa issued a decision on Monday "forbidding residents from using the areas hit by fire.Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 07:23

UNIFIL Navy Jams Israeli Sat. TVs
Signal disruptions that have plagued Israeli satellite television channels for over a month are believed caused by U.N. navy vessels patrolling the Mediterranean off Lebanon's coast, officials said on Wednesday. Clients of Yes, Israel's sole satellite television provider, have had to put up with frozen and fuzzy images and sound disturbances for weeks, with the company unable to pin down the source of the problem.
The company, which provides services to nearly one million clients, warned that it risked bankruptcy because customers were abandoning it in droves, so the government stepped in to examine the cause. Israel now suspects that the source of the disturbances, which began following an Israeli air strike in Syria on September 6, originate from Dutch and German ships of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). "Officials believe that part of the systems used by UNIFIL could be the cause for the Yes satellite signal disturbances," foreign ministry spokesman Mark Regev told Agence France Presse.
"The foreign ministry has approached people in charge of the international peacekeeping mission in New York and communications specialists will work on the issue," he added. Following last year's war between Israel and Lebanon's Hizbullah, a boosted 12,000-member UNIFIL -- including navy vessels -- patrols the border area along with Lebanese soldiers under the terms of the U.N.-brokered truce that ended the conflict.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 17:01

Interrogation of Fatah al-Islam Terrorists Revealed
Interrogation of the detained Fatah al-Islam terrorists showed that the Islamists planned to seize control of a "big section" of northern Lebanon in addition to "destabilize" the country by shelling government institutions and business facilities as well as attacking U.N. peacekeepers in an effort to hinder implementation of U.N. resolutions, particularly 1701, the daily An Nahar said Wednesday.
It said interrogation also showed that a large number of Fatah al-Islam militants were "true Jihads," or holy warriors, who were under the impression that they were going to fight in Iraq. Most of the non-Lebanese militants had illegally crossed into Lebanon from Syria overland, and a few had entered the country via Beirut airport, according to the grilling. The daily said it is believed that following Arab, European and U.S. pressure on Syria to stop exporting jihad fighters to Iraqi, hundreds of holy warriors were sent to Lebanon under Shaker al-Abssi's Fatah al-Islam umbrella after his mysterious release from Damascus along with a few aids.
Interrogation of the captives also showed that those who came illegally from Syria had infiltrated via a border area controlled by Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine –General Command, which is backed and financed by Syria.
An Nahar said Fatah al-Islam fighters had also received paramilitary training at PFLP-GC bases along the Lebanese border with Syria.
It said the circumstances of Abssi's release and the way the Syrian-backed Fatah-Intifada, or uprising, had facilitated Abssi's movements, in addition to a number of other factors, showed that a well-planned, premeditated plot could not have been made without the knowledge and blessing of Fatah-Intifada.
Evidence that "direct contacts" between some Fatah al-Islam leaders and high-ranking Syrian Intelligence officers also supported doubts that Syria's security service used Fatah al-Islam for political and security purposes in Lebanon. Cross-examination also showed that Fatah al-Islam was made up of "two main components": 1- External, which includes Syrians and Palestinians living in Syria and were tasked with missions outside their bases like the Ein Alaq bombings. 2- Internal, where militants were confined to the refugee camp and not allowed to leave. Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 16:15

Refugees Return to Nahr al-Bared Camp
Palestinian families began returning on Wednesday to the newest part of the devastated Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in Lebanon that was the scene of 15 weeks of fierce battles between the army and Fatah al-Islam militants. Two buses hired by the U.N. Relief and Works Agency and bearing Palestinian flags picked up the first 10 families from the Beddawi refugee camp for the short drive to Nahr al-Bared in northern Lebanon.
The majority of Nahr al-Bared's mainly Palestinian 30,000 refugees were forced to flee the camp at the onset of the fighting with the al-Qaida-inspired Fatah al-Islam group in May. The Lebanese army this week granted permission for more than 400 displaced families to return to the newest part of the seafront camp which was not as devastated as the old section. UNRWA said 100 families would return each day and would be given emergency items including mattresses, pillows, kitchen items and food parcels.At least 400 people died during the 15 weeks of fighting at the camp, including 168 troops.(AFP) Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 09:53

Hariri Urges U.N. to Take 'Firmer Stand' on Assassinations
Al Mustaqbal Movement leader and MP Saad Hariri urged the United Nations to "take a firmer stand" regarding the assassinations of anti-Syrian Lebanese legislators.
Hariri's two-day talks in Washington and New York were crowned by a meeting on Tuesday with U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon and U.S.'s, Russia's and China's U.N. ambassadors. "I asked the Secretary-General for a firmer stand from the U.N. regarding the (wave of) assassinations in Lebanon which is targeting one group -- March 14," Hariri said. "What's happening today in Lebanon is a destabilizing coup," Hariri said. "When you have members of parliament sitting in a building to protect themselves from an assassination that might happen ... I think this is not acceptable for the international community. I think the international community should move on those who committed these crimes in a very swift way," he added. Hariri pleaded with "anyone who wants Lebanon to continue to be democratic, let him take action now to stop these assassinations." He confirmed that "work is underway" to speed up the formation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of his father and related crimes.
Government supporters accuse Syria of seeking to eliminate Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's majority in parliament before the election by targeting members of the ruling March 14 coalition for assassination. Eight prominent anti-Syrian figures have been killed in Lebanon since 2005, including Rafik Hariri. Damascus has denied any involvement in the slayings. Hariri said there was an effort under way in Lebanon to derail the elections, postponed till Oct. 23.
"When you have somebody trying to affect or interfere in electing a president in Lebanon and trying to push his own agenda for a president that is close to, let's say, Syria or other countries, we refuse that," he told reporters. Hariri said he spoke with Ban about the importance of holding the elections on time, and he appealed for Russia and China to help the country remain calm. "What we want is to elect a president for the Lebanese people and we don't want any interference from anyone," he said. "Actually, what we ask (is for) his Excellency the Russian ambassador and the Chinese ambassador to interfere with those who are interfering ... in Lebanese politics."Earlier, Russia's U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, said he told Hariri that his country would do everything it could to help the elections run smoothly.
When asked what specific steps Russia would take, Churkin said it had sent messages to "all the parties" involved stressing the importance of the territorial integrity and stability of Lebanon. He didn't identify the parties.
China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya also met with Hariri on Tuesday, but details of the meeting were not disclosed. Last week, President George Bush directly warned Syria against interfering in the election after meeting with Hariri in Washington. "I am deeply concerned about foreign interference in your elections," Bush told Hariri, adding that many nations have called on Syria to stay out. "We expect Syria to honor that demand."The U.N. has authorized an international tribunal to try suspects in the slayings of Hariri and the other anti-Syrian figures, but some say it is taking too long to set up.The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Zalmay Khalilzad, said Tuesday the recent assassinations would not slow down the process. "If anything, it has increased our efforts to (set it up) as soon as possible," he said.(Naharnet-AP)
Beirut, 10 Oct 07, 08:56

U.N. Optimistic Over Demarcation of Israel-Lebanon border
The U.N. peacekeepers' commander on Tuesday expected to make progress on marking the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon.
"We had a constructive discussion ... I hope that we will advance on both the marking of the Blue Line and the temporary security arrangements in northern Ghajar," General Claudio Granziano after meeting with army representatives from both countries. "The two sides manifested determination to adhere to the relevant provisions of (U.N. Security Council resolution) 1701," said the commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, according to a UNIFIL statement.
The United Nations marked the Blue Line in 2000 to ensure the Israeli forces' full withdrawal from Lebanon after 22 years of occupation.
Israeli forces have yet to pull out of northern Ghajar, a village dissected by the Blue Line and occupied by Israeli forces during the 34-day war with Hizbullah in 2006.
One third of the village is in Lebanese territory and two thirds in the Golan Heights annexed by Israel in 1981. First deployed in Lebanon in 1978, UNIFIL had its role boosted in the region following the 2006 war, and now has some 13,000 troops in the south of the country.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 09 Oct 07, 21:59

''Political Fragmentation Hinders Lebanon's Stability''
he recent failure to elect a successor to current President Emile Lahoud and the deepening political fragmentation within Lebanon pose a serious challenge to the already precarious local stability and governability situation. Furthermore, the ongoing escalation of violence only complicates the scenario and worsens the ongoing political crisis.
The Presidential Deadlock
The Lebanese parliament reconvened on September 25 to elect a successor to current President Emile Lahoud, whose mandate expires on November 23. This electoral appointment was also the occasion for the parliament to gather in a formal session for the first time in almost a year. The legislative body had in fact not met since November 2006, when the disagreement over the creation of a national unity government between the March 14 coalition and the Hezbollah-Amal opposition bloc had led the latter to initiate a political boycott, causing the de facto paralysis of the Lebanese government.
However, existing political and procedural disagreements between the two main political coalitions, and the renewed climate of political violence within the country, led to a failure of the first electoral round and to the postponement of the parliamentary session to October 23. Currently, numerous outstanding issues severely undermine the possibility of electing the new Lebanese president.
First, the parties have insofar failed to concur on a joint presidential nominee, as proposed by parliamentary speaker and member of the opposition Nabih Berri, who had put forth a national reconciliation initiative based on the nomination of a consensus candidate. The negotiations between the opposition and the majority coalitions have been stalled over the determination of the procedures for the presidential election. The Lebanese constitution -- in its Article 49 -- establishes that the president must be elected by a two-thirds majority in the first electoral round, or by an absolute majority after the first ballot.
Therefore, the March 14 alliance argues that, in case the two-thirds quorum is not reached in the first electoral round, the government has the power to choose a successor to Lahoud relying on a simple majority. This interpretation would empower them to elect the president without the need to rely on the opposition (as the March 14 coalition has 68 of the 128 available seats). On the other hand, the Hezbollah-led bloc strongly rejects this constitutional interpretation and insists on the two-thirds quorum requirement, which would allow it to retain its veto power.
The debate and disagreement over the electoral procedures reflect the underlying conflict of interests between the parties, which has prevented them from nominating a consensus candidate. In fact, the replacement of Emile Lahoud is seen by both the March 14 coalition and the opposition parties as a strategic opportunity to shift the current balance of power in their favor.
Lahoud, a Maronite Christian -- as determined by the current Lebanese power-sharing arrangement -- has been in charge of the presidency since 1998. Although his mandate officially expired in 2004, he was granted a three-year extension of his term due to a controversial constitutional amendment brokered by Syria, which always viewed Lahoud as an important ally within Lebanon.
Since his re-election in 2004, relations between the pro-Western and anti-Syrian March 14 coalition and the president have been increasingly tense, and the termination of Lahoud's presidential term is seen by the majority parties as a unique opportunity to consolidate its power within Lebanese politics, as well as to strongly diminish pro-Syrian influences within the Lebanese arena.
Replacing Lahoud with an ally of the majority appears to be particularly important now that popular support for the governing coalition is, at least to some degree, waning. A recent example of this trend was the defeat of the March 14 candidate in the August 2007 elections for the vacant seat of Pierre Amine Gemayel, the former member of the government coalition who was assassinated in November 2006. The fact that Gemayel's seat was won by a member of the opposition has been interpreted as a negative popularity test for the ruling coalition.
Therefore, a core interest of the March 14 alliance is to consolidate its position in the government, and all the presidential candidates of the alliance, such as Democratic Renewal Movement leader Nassib Lahoud, Rally of Independent Maronite leader Butros Harb, or current Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad, would push forward an anti-Syrian platform, even if by different degrees.
The opposition parties, on the other hand, perceive the importance of maintaining a "friendly" president necessary to balance the influence of the governing coalition, and they would hence oppose the election of an openly anti-Syrian candidate. Unlike the majority coalition, the opposition parties have decided to rally behind one nominee and to support the Christian leader of the Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun.
Renewal of Political Violence
This polarized and chaotic scenario was further complicated by the recent renewal of violence and political assassinations. On September 19, only a week before the first round of presidential elections, parliamentary member of the March 14 coalition and of the Maronite Phalange Party, Antoine Ghanem, was killed in a truck bombing. Ghanem was the eighth anti-Syrian politician to be killed since 2004, and the sixth victim of political assassinations of March 14 members since the February 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
The main objective of Ghanem's assassination was to further destabilize and polarize the Lebanese political arena, perhaps in an attempt to maintain the current political paralysis and impasse. Secondly, the killing has a very practical function: to hinder the March 14 coalition's numerical majority within the parliament, effectively preventing them from electing a candidate of their own choice. Both these objectives seem to further Syrian interests in reasserting influence over Lebanon, although the country openly denied any involvement in the political assassination.
The internal reactions to the killing of Ghanem varied, although all parties -- including Hezbollah -- expressed their condemnation. Current presidential candidate Boutros Harb commented that "this is an attack aimed at sabotaging all efforts to reach a solution to the current political crisis," and stated that the killing of Ghanem was tied with the upcoming elections. A much stronger reaction came from prominent majority leader Walid Jumblatt, who openly declared that he opposed any negotiation with "murderers," alluding to pro-Syrian opposition forces, such as Hezbollah.
These types of statements from the majority coalition clearly indicate an escalation of the political debate, possibly hindering the future chances for dialogue with the opposition. Furthermore, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora -- in what is likely to be perceived as a contentious move by the opposition -- asked the United Nations and the newly established U.N. international tribunal for Lebanon to help investigate the killing.
The international community reacted with similar condemnation, and reiterated its interest in seeing the current Lebanese political crisis promptly resolved, as the current stalemate is seen as potentially destabilizing for the entire region. In this sense, the European Union urged Lebanon to overcome the current impasse and proceed with the presidential elections.
A similar statement, calling for the Lebanese elections to be "independent and free from foreign influence," came from the U.N. Security Council on the day following Ghanem's assassination. This declaration was later criticized by pro-Syrian parliamentary speaker Berri, who asked the U.N. not to interfere with Lebanese affairs. Another (unintended) effect of Ghanem's killing in the international arena has been the renewal of international attention toward the U.N. tribunal established to investigate the 2005 killing of Hariri. As an indicator of this trend, the United States recently pledged to contribute US$5 million to the tribunal. The tribunal, in fact, is seen as a potentially effective way to place a constraint over Syrian influence on Lebanese politics.
Finally, official statements from both Iranian and Syrian officials condemned the killing. Iran, unsurprisingly, sided with the Hezbollah-led opposition and declared: "Iran backs ongoing actions including Lebanon's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's compromise plan to solve the country's political crisis." Despite official denials of Syrian involvement in the current escalation of political violence, it seems quite obvious that the country would highly benefit from avoiding the replacement of pro-Syrian Lahoud with a majority candidate, and that it could use the current polarization and ungovernability to re-establish its influence over Lebanon.
Conclusion: Foreseeable Scenarios and Political Implications
The escalation of political violence and the failure to reach an agreement among the parties led to the failure of the first round of presidential elections. On September 25, the opposition bloc decided to boycott the parliamentary session, denying the March 14 alliance the required two-thirds quorum to elect the new Lebanese president. The parliament will now reconvene on October 23.
If a consensus candidate is not nominated by then, the majority parties have already declared that they would proceed to elect a candidate relying on a simple majority. This outcome would be extremely problematic, as it would likely lead to the rejection of the presidential nominee by the opposition parties, with the subsequent designation of an alternative candidate. The possibility of having two parallel governments operating within Lebanon would only deepen the political crisis and create a semi-permanent state of ungovernability.
Furthermore, opposition presidential candidate Michel Aoun expressed his strong rejection to this scenario by declaring: "Our message is clear: the election by a simple majority would be a declaration of war…The issue of the legal quorum is not open to discussion, and countries that back such a president [elected by a simple majority] will have to dispatch troops to protect him." This statement is particularly relevant, as it confirms the hypothesis that a unilateral election by the majority forces would lead to renewed factional divisions and violence, with an enormous potential for escalation.
Additionally, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi recently confirmed that both opposition and pro-government groups are currently running armed training camps across the country, a factor that only enhances the potential for internal strife and inter-ethnic violence.
Finally, renewed internal hostilities between the pro-government and opposition parties could enhance Syria's role in Lebanon, and it is difficult to predict whether its involvement would be limited to logistics assistance, or whether the country would consider more direct participation to support the Hezbollah-led opposition.
On the other hand, even a continuation of the current stalemate and the failure to nominate a successor to Lahoud before the end of his term would be detrimental to Lebanese stability, especially as the parties would hardly agree on any viable interim solution. Francois Bassil, head of the Association of Banks of Lebanon, recently stated that a renewed political impasse could lead to a widespread and severe economic crisis, which would further contribute to destabilizing and polarizing the country. Furthermore, a weak and paralyzed Lebanon would impair the country's national security and it would increase the threat of Islamist militants -- in some cases connected to transnational terrorist networks such as al-Qaeda and operating within Lebanon -- to openly challenge the government and assert their influence.
The best way to avoid this predicament would be the appointment of a consensus candidate between the two main political coalitions. In the days following the failed presidential elections, there have been a few positive steps in this direction. A first potential breakthrough was the meeting between parliamentary speaker Berri and prominent anti-Syrian leader Saad Hariri to discuss the nomination of a joint candidate. These talks were positively greeted by Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir, who could play an important role by legitimizing the consensus candidate chosen by the two coalitions.
Furthermore, there have been talks about potential joint presidential nominees, such as Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh or army chief General Michel Suleiman -- who enjoys a wide degree of popular support, representing the only stable institution in Lebanon. A negotiated agreement between the parties would hopefully lead to the beginning of a national reconciliation process, and ultimately to a normalization of the Lebanese political arena.
The next two weeks will be crucial in determining the short term future of Lebanese politics and whether it will be characterized by the renewal of a national reconciliation process, or by increased polarization and instability. The ability of the local political leadership to agree on a presidential candidate, along with the effective prevention of further episodes of political violence in the weeks preceding the October elections will be crucial factors in shaping Lebanon's political horizon.
Report Drafted By: Benedetta Berti
The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments

New York Times: U.S. gov't split over Israeli data on Syria-N. Korea ties
By Haaretz Staff
The New York Times reported Wednesday that United States government officials are divided over the significance of Israeli intelligence provided to the White House prior to its backing of an Israel Air Force attack on a reported nuclear facility in Syria on September 6.
According to the paper, U.S. officials say the debate centers on the question of whether the information Israel presented to the White House, which reportedly claimed that Syria had begun developing nuclear weapons with the North Korean help, had been conclusive enough to warrant the strike and to possibly alter U.S. policy on both Damascus and Pyongyang.
The report says that one side is represented by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and the conservative hawks in the administration, who argue that American policy must change in accordance with the Israeli information, which they portray as accurate and credible.
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The Times says that on the opposing side is U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her allies, who maintain that the intelligence does not warrant any change in the U.S. diplomatic policy on the two countries.
"Some people think that it means that the sky is falling," a senior administration official told the New York Times. "Others say that they're not convinced that the real intelligence poses a threat."
ABC News reported last week that the strike was originally scheduled to take place on July 14, but was delayed due to hesitance on the part of the Americans.
The ABC report added that the U.S., embroiled in a war in Iraq partially due to faulty intelligence, was nervous about the accuracy of the information and the implications on the region an attack would have.
The New York Times reported that during a meeting last week in the White House, Rice and her chief North Korea negotiator Christopher Hill presented to U.S. President George W. Bush two possible diplomatic approaches toward Pyongyang. The first approach would be to operate in accordance with previous agreements struck with North Korea and offer the country incentives to disarm. The other option would be to revert to the administration's previous policy, led by Cheney, which its opponents argue compelled North Korea to begin its nuclear program.
The vice president and national security adviser Stephen Hadley, who were also present at the meeting, expressed their dissatisfaction with the president's decision to take the first option and honor the current agreement. They maintained that the information presented by Israel proves that North Korea cannot be trusted and that the U.S. must be prepared to withdraw from the agreements if Pyongyang refuses to admit to contacts with Syria.
Bruce Riedel, formerly of the CIA and the National Security Council, told the newspaper that the American intelligence agencies are careful not to jump to conclusions based on the IAF activity in Syria. Still, Riedel said that Israel would not have targeted the Syrian facility unless it believed sophisticated weaponry was being developed there. "You don't risk general war in the Middle East over an extra 100 kilometers' range on a missile system," he said.
Since the nuclear experiment the North Korea carried out last year, Rice has been pressuring Bush to take a more diplomatic approach to the Asian country and embark on talks over disarmament. The talks, including Russia, Japan, China and South Korea, led to a preliminary agreement on the closing of the North Korean nuclear reactor in exchange for food and fuel aid. The deal sparked resistance among Capitol Hill conservatives who said that the Bush administration was putting too much weight on negotiations with North Korea instead of investing resources in preventing the spread of illicit weapons in the Middle East.

Lebanon reaps deadly Israeli bombs one year after war
by Nayla Razzouk
AL-HOSH, Lebanon, Oct 10, 2007 (AFP) - With sweat trickling down his temples, Hossam Mustapha froze as the metal detector sounded in a banana plantation riddled with unexploded bomblets left over from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The young deminer treads on dangerous ground as he clears fields and residential areas in south Lebanon of the unexploded cluster bombs dropped by Israel during its July-August 2006 war with the Shiite militant group.
But as he seeks out the deadly crops in the coastal region of Al-Hosh, farmers go about their work in the fields. "We inform them their safety is at risk, but they insist on going into the plantations because the livelihoods of such poor people depend on the harvest," said Magnus Rundstrom, a Swedish manager for the Mine Advisory Group (MAG), a Britain-based NGO. The United Nations says up to one million of the millions of cluster bomblets dropped by Israel during the war failed to explode on impact, becoming deadly traps which can detonate at the slightest movement. At least 37 people have been killed and 217 wounded and maimed by the weapons since the conflict, according to the United Nations. Two civilians, including a six-year-old boy, were killed by cluster bombs only last week.
Dalya Farran, spokeswoman for the UN Mine Action Coordination Centre (MACC) overseeing the clearing operations, said that 946 cluster bomb locations cover an estimated area of almost 38 million square metres (410 million sq ft). More than 130,000 cluster bombs have been cleared by 69 foreign-led teams of 1,300 experts operating under a programme funded by donor countries to clear south Lebanon completely of unexploded munitions by the end of 2008, she said.
"Our biggest obstacle is that Israel did not provide us with cluster bomb strike locations: their targets, geographic location, quantities and types," she said.
Israel has also not revealed how many bombs were dropped on Lebanon, but insists prohibited weaponry was not used during the conflict.
"But the problem in Lebanon was so big that it gave a push to organisations and countries which are fighting for an international ban on cluster bombs. And since last year, there is talk that we are close to a ban treaty," said Farran.
She said the UN-led effort also covered the clearance of 25,000 landmines and unexploded ordnance in the Nabatiyeh, Jezzine and Hasbaya districts, all north of the Litani River, south of which UN peacekeepers are deployed. "In addition, there are about 375,000 landmines -- mostly Israeli-made anti-personnel mines -- along the Blue Line (the UN-demarcated border with Israel) and about two to three kilometres (one to two miles) inside Lebanese territory," she said. "But we have no mandate to clear the border area because of political reasons." Farran said the toll of about 250 people killed and wounded by cluster bombs or landmines in the past year was "a significant figure, considering that 300 people were killed or wounded between 2000 and 2006." "But the casualty toll is decreasing every month as the clearing operation progresses because, at first, there were cluster bombs everywhere on roads, inside houses, gardens, water wells and all kinds of inhabited areas."
Rundstrom said "we work according to priorities: we first clear residential areas, then agricultural fields because they are important economically, and then empty fields."
The 38-year-old former soldier in the Swedish army, who once also cleared similar fields in Laos, said that "operations are difficult because there are a lot of trees in the region." "It is difficult to clear them as the soil is soft or mostly flooded every three weeks by the farmers -- which allows bomblets to sink even deeper into the soil," he said. The apparently fearless Swedish deminer brushes away the large banana leaves as he steers his way between the colour-coordinated wooden sticks pointing at the presence of unexploded ordnance in the plantation.
He gives strict orders to his team.
"These young people have been trained. But in Lebanon there is a problem because people pick up bomblets with their own hands. Some others make it a living, they are paid five dollars (3.5 euros) for each bomblet," he said.
"One guy who is 19 years old removed 4,000 of them, so imagine the money he made."
Deminer Ali Malak, 27, is one of 45 men in the southern village of Beit Leef who have joined the clearing operation.
"Many of us were unemployed. Now we earn 700 dollars a month," a significant amount in the impoverished south, he said.
A colleague, Mustapha, explained: "I used to plant tobacco, today I pick cluster bombs. I feel I have to do this. Many people I know either died or were maimed by the cluster bombs. I want to save my people and my country."
Copyright (c) 2007 Agence France-Presse
Posted: October 09, 2007

Understanding the Israeli Attack on Syria
Haaretz/Israel's "ministers committee for the northern front" gathered in early August for the sixth time of the summer. The prime minister's office told the press that the committee was focused exclusively on preventive measures?making sure that Israel was ready for any possible eruption of hostilities on the northern border with either Hezbollah, which operates in Lebanon, or Syria. "Israel does not want a war with Syria," government sources emphasized time and again. Three weeks later, on Sept. 6, a couple of Israeli fighter jets hit targets deep inside Syria. War did not follow, however. "Retaliate doesn't mean missile for missile and bomb for bomb," Syrian President Bashar Assad told the BBC a week ago. "We have our means to retaliate, maybe politically, maybe in other ways. But we have the right to retaliate."
The threat of a looming "summer war" with Syria was a constant topic of discussion in Israel this spring and early summer. Only a year had passed since the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the two forces were making noises about another fight in the making. The Syrians, it was said, might want to try to get back the Golan Heights, which have been occupied by Israel since 1967. Or they might want to force Israel and the United States into negotiations. Israeli intelligence officers and diplomats were talking about a Syrian "buildup" on the Israeli front. And there was a limited counterbuildup by Israel.
As is almost always the case with the Middle East, actual events took everybody by surprise. It wasn't Syria that attacked, but Israel; not in the Golan, but near the Syria-Turkey border.What did Israel attack? An unused military building, according to Assad. That's highly unlikely?only a high-value target could justify Israel risking war by executing this mission. Both sides refrained from any official statements regarding the nature of the target, but knowledgeable sources say it was a "nuclear-related facility"?the forbidden fruit of Syrian cooperation with North Korea.
According to an ABC News report, the Israeli strike was opposed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, because she feared it would destabilize the region. The Bush administration persuaded Israel to shelve initial plans to strike during the week of July 14.
So, in hindsight, tracking the events of the summer is both entertaining and disturbing. Three days before the 14th?the time of this planned-but-postponed attack?the Israeli chief of staff declared that "in my opinion, there will be no war with Syria this summer." Was he saying this because he knew the attack was delayed, or was it a calculated feeding of disinformation to the public? The same question should be asked about Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's declaration?on July 13?that "Israel doesn't want war and Syria doesn't want war." Nothing seems now the way it seemed back then. No statement by an Israeli or a Syrian leader, no suspected military buildup, no expression of peaceful intentions, no refusal to negotiate, no diplomatic maneuver.
"Nearly everything Israeli experts expected Hafez Assad to do?up to his death in 2000?and subsequently Bashar, were either not done, or the opposite was done," wrote my colleague Amir Oren in Ha'aretz. The achievement of the Sept. 6 operation should not be taken lightly: Someone detected a North Korean delivery of nuclear-related material to Syria. The storage site was mapped. The required number of hits and bombs was carefully calculated. The anti-aircraft-missile batteries were smartly circumvented. This is all quite remarkable. But it also underscores the fact that while we can detect the movements and the physical actions of North Korea and Syria, there are still a lot of things we don't understand about the intentions and the plans of these regimes.
We know what we know about the target and the attack. But, as Jim Hoagland asked in Sunday's Washington Post, was the delivery of materiel and knowledge from North Korea to Syria "[a] last gasp of North Korean international banditry before going straight on nuclear nonproliferation? A continuing confidence by Pyongyang that it can say one thing in public and do another covertly?"
These are all questions the United States should be asking before it completes a deal with Pyongyang. And similar questions can be asked about Syria: Was acquiring this component of the so-called "Syrian nuclear program" a bold move to build up Syrian force and use it for nefarious purposes or a cry for attention and a plea for negotiations? Is it Assad's way of showing that he will use whatever means are in his power to preserve Syria's influence in Lebanon and pressure Israel into returning the Golan Heights? Or was it a desperate last-ditch effort to preserve his declining regime?
There are only two ways to make peace where there's such an intelligence gap: Take the best possible guess, or wait for time to pass and the chips to fall. In the case of both Syria and North Korea, the evidence doesn't provide a clear answer about motives and intentions. That's why this recent incident will provide arguments for and against negotiations or airstrikes or regime change or carrots and sticks. Physical evidence, such as soil samples from the site of the airstrike, can be definite and indisputable?but all the rest, even in this extreme case, is mere commentary.