The Lebanese opposition's first casualty
By Michael Young -Daily Star staff
Thursday, December 14, 2006
It adds little to the debate over MP Michel Aoun to note that this past Sunday
he addressed the multitudes in the guise of a giant pumpkin. The general was not
at his sartorial best, and when the searing orange had ceased to blind us, and
presumably him, he must have realized this. But there is something more
important than Aoun's attire that his partisans should now seriously consider:
If any group is set to take a tumble in the foreseeable future, it is the Free
Patriotic Movement.
My own feelings for Aoun have lately fluctuated between rampant dislike and cold
hostility. This makes me a less than credible chronicler of the general's
fortunes, but it wasn't always so. I twice visited Aoun during his early days of
exile, after he had been deposited somewhere in the Parisian countryside - too
close to Euro Disney for my taste. He was guarded by a phalanx of French
gendarmes, paid for by French taxpayers, all belonging to a country that Aoun
has forsaken since becoming a Maronite knockoff of Hugo Chavez. I found the
general amiable, a monsieur tout le monde, generous with his time and unaffected
in his approach. I've learned from several people, none enthusiasts, that the
private Aoun has little changed.
However, the public Aoun is in trouble, and his urgency on Sunday to force a
final showdown with the government confirmed that something was amiss. The
general knows he and his own are the weakest link in the campaign against Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora. The Aounists cannot long endure an open-ended sit-in,
both because they are not earning salaries to do so and probably because the
looming holiday season threatens to melt their momentum. And there is something
else: Aoun realizes that as package deals are unwrapped left and right to
resolve the ongoing crisis, his chances of seeing the presidency diminish.
Indeed, the latest basket of ideas from Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa
includes a proposal for the March 14 coalition and the opposition to consent to
a compromise president. If that process goes through, Aoun will not be the
chosen one, although Hizbullah may use him as their opening card. The party will
think long and hard before accepting bids on the presidency, however, because it
realizes that this will lead to a noisy divorce with the general, when it still
needs the cross-sectarian cover he provides for a largely Shiite protest
movement. The thing is, Hizbullah may soon not have the luxury to bat away
arrangements that involve getting rid of President Emile Lahoud.
The reason is that Hizbullah is being strangled by its conflicting commitments.
The party owes Syria on undermining the Hariri tribunal, and owes Iran on just
about everything else. This situation has pushed Hizbullah into an uncomfortable
confrontation with the Sunni community, one that is damaging its appeal in the
Arab world. Since that appeal is essential to the Iranian leadership, which has
sought to use popular Arab antagonism against Israel as a means of discrediting
pro-Western Arab regimes, Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
risks undercutting his own importance. It could be that in an effort to salvage
his troublesome Syrian and Iranian agendas, Nasrallah will have to jettison his
most dispensable ally: Michel Aoun.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb
If that happens, Aoun's double-or-nothing gamble could permanently cripple his
ambitions. Soon after the summer war between Hizbullah and Israel, the general
quietly visited Nasrallah in what was apparently an early effort to prepare what
is taking place today in Downtown Beirut. Aoun had backed Hizbullah during the
conflict, in the face of widespread condemnation, and felt Nasrallah owed him.
It is now Aoun who is most vocally warning that the opposition might form an
interim government against the one backed by the majority. As the general's
rhetoric escalates, his anxiety is becoming more palpable. Even under the best
of circumstances his being elected would require an immensely complex succession
of events that is looking increasingly unlikely.
Aoun needs a majority in Parliament to become president. He doesn't have one,
which is why he would like to see early parliamentary elections before Lahoud's
mandate expires. But even assuming such elections take place, a doubtful
proposition, are there any guarantees that Aoun and his allies would win more
seats than in 2005? If anything, the general's popularity has declined.
Moreover, while he has complained long and hard about last year's election law,
it was actually beneficial to him. Under any other system, the likelihood of his
winning a similar landslide virtually evaporates. And Aoun's dismissal of the
2005 law is such that he's locked himself into accepting a new law, particularly
one that might benefit comrades who lost their seats, such as Suleiman Franjieh.
Once that electoral hurdle is crossed, and assuming, fancifully, that everything
goes Aoun's way, can the general then convince Hizbullah and the Syrians that
he's their man? If the Syrians are back in town by then, their preference will
be for someone more controllable; and if they are not, this will mean that all
sides must accept a compromise candidate. In neither case does Aoun fit the
bill. By accumulating power through persistent divisiveness, the general has
allowed himself to be squeezed dry by his associates; he has also surrendered
any opportunity to emerge as everyone's first, or far more importantly second,
choice.
Aoun's personal misfortune matters little. However, when you speak to his
supporters, it becomes obvious how deeply uneasy they are with their society,
the nature of Lebanon's government, and the fate of the Christian community -
and an overwhelming majority are parochial Christians, regardless of the
transient love-fest with Hizbullah. If Aoun crashes, as such contraptions
invariably do, someone will have to explain to the Aounists why they have
followed that pied piper down a blind alley for the second time in just 16
years. And when no answer comes, all the orange will change to a menacing hue of
black.
Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.